We will look forThe September-quarter results on 29 October. AWS growth of 33% or more at a 36% margin, more committed orders and no worse cash outflow support the case. Growth under 28%, or an outflow worse than $15B, says spending is outrunning demand.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on October 29. New American orders at $0.36 a watt or more, with contracted orders no longer shrinking, support the case; prices below $0.30, or shrinking orders with nothing new behind them, say the floor is not reaching prices.
We will look forThird-quarter results on 29 October. Revenue of $1.315B or more, bookings up 5% or more, domain and hosting revenue up 2% or more and the $1.8B cash target kept support our view. Anything below those, or a cut to the cash target, weakens it.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on October 29. Hospital sequencing chemicals growing 15% or more outside China with a 24% margin would count against us; growth below 12%, or a margin short of 24%, leaves the year resting on the fourth quarter.
We will look forThe September-quarter results in late October. Prices flattening or falling as volumes recover would confirm June's growth was scarcity. Prices holding while volumes recover, or outside foundry sales well above $293M, would argue against us.
We will look forQ3 2026 results on 29 October. Sales of at least $1.14B, a margin of 55.4% or better and a December guide near $1.21B would support the growth case; anything weaker would suggest AI orders are cooling.
We will look forFirst-quarter fiscal 2027 results on 29 October. Sales of $10.3B or more at a margin of 83% or more, with contracted sales of $85B or more, would support us; anything less would press the view down.
We will look forThird-quarter results on 29 October 2026. Delivered costs under $60 a tonne with the quality premium holding near $4.4 would ease the pressure; costs above $62 or a premium under $3 would deepen it.
We will look forFourth-quarter results, due by 2 November. Growth of 9% to 11.9% with margin without refunds of 46% to 47.9% fits our view. Growth of 12% or more with margin of 48% or more weakens it.
We will look forThird-quarter results, due 2 November. Recurring revenue at or above $80M with no settlement inside it, and chip revenue above the June quarter's $14.8M, would show the recovery arriving; below $75M, or a forecast leaning on an unsigned settlement, would show it still modelled rather than signed.
We will look forFirst-quarter results, due by early November. A cut or narrowed forecast, or weak new orders, would confirm our view; a raised forecast or an order from the second AI chip maker would weaken it.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 3 November. Sales per phone still growing near June's 40% and a second raise to the year's forecast would favour the bulls; a beat with the forecast left alone means a sharp slowdown ahead.
We will look forThe third-quarter report on 2 November. Naval profit growing above 8% with a new-reactor order booked says the plan is running ahead of the price; naval profit under 5% with no order says the price still waits.
We will look forThe third-quarter results on 2 November. Barber Lake rent starting this quarter, no cost beyond $359.3 million and a signed lease on the 477 megawatts would support the case; rent slipping into 2027, more cost on Cipher or nothing signed would press on it.
We will look forQ1 fiscal 2027 results on 2 November. Revenue of $1.40B or more, AI modules up on the quarter and the merchant program still due in Q2 fiscal 2027 support us; revenue below $1.375B or modules down again argue against.
We will look forThe third-quarter results on 2 November 2026. Sales between $315M and $345M with a margin of 14.5% to 15.5% would fit our view; sales above $345M, a higher margin and a fourth-quarter forecast above $370M would argue we are too cautious.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 2 November. Chip sales of $220M or more at a gross margin of 69.5% or better, and AMI at $33M to $37M, support the plan. Chip sales below $210M, or softer words on 2027 bookings, pressure it.
We will look forThe third-quarter results on 5 November 2026. Cash earnings near $30M with the mill still in the mid-70s would support our view; earnings above $33M, defense sales above $62.5M and the agency's order called new volume would argue we are too cautious.
We will look forQ3 2026 results, around November 2. Revenue above $2.164B, US company sales up at least 130% and a higher full-year forecast say growth is holding; revenue below $2.160B or customer spending growth under 50% says it is slowing.
We will look forOn 11 November: sales near $52.8M, that profit of $7M or more and positive cash flow would say the slowdown was parts timing; sales near the first half's $47M a quarter would say the business itself has slowed.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on November 3. Sales above $430M, data licensing up more than 30% and less than $20M from related parties would count against us; sales below $410M, or a forecast held up by related-party revenue, would confirm the objection.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 3 November. Sales of $560M or more, a margin of 72% or more and a second switch platform named would support the case. Sales below $540M, a margin below 71%, or the second customer slipping into 2027 would pressure it.
We will look forThe Q3 2026 results on 3 November 2026. Data center sales of $8.06B or more, up 20% on Q2, with rack shipments confirmed, would support the case; less, or shipments pushed into Q4, would pressure it.
We will look forThe September quarter, reported on 3 November. Sales of $3.3B or more with gross margin at 63% and billed-but-unearned sales still rising say the discount is bounded. Sales below $3.3B mean supply fell short; margin below 62.5% means discounts are widening.
We will look forThird-quarter results on 3 November 2026. Machine and materials sales of at least $87.6M and underlying operating profit of at least $22.7M would say the decline is ending; less on either would say the new machines have not turned it.
We will look forThird-quarter results on 3 November 2026. A margin of 9% or more with backlog still growing says the higher margin is holding; a margin below 9% or a smaller backlog says it is fading back toward normal.
We will look forThe September quarter on 3 November. A reported earnings forecast held or raised from $10.36 to $10.56, with electrical margins at 24.6% to 25.0%, supports the case. Another reported cut alongside a raised adjusted one, or add-backs above $1.04 a share, does not.
We will look forThird-quarter results on 3 November 2026. Growth at or above 19%, with the full-year guide held, says the plan is on track; growth below that, or a lower visa assumption for any of the four countries, says the cuts are winning.
We will look forResults on November 3. A gross margin of 39% or more without refunds, sales of $280M or more and growing defence sales support us; anything weaker argues the recovery is stalling.
We will look forQ3 2026 results on 2026-11-03. Gross profit growth of at least 5% would hold the view; below it would say the slowdown runs deeper than forecast. Listen for the first word on 2027.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 2 November. Sales of $13.5M or more, a December-quarter outlook of $15M or more and a figure for signed 2027 orders would support the story; a miss, or silence on 2027, would not.
We will look forThird-quarter results, due in early November. Gross margin of 40% or more with no refund or credit inside it, and revenue at or above $57.5M, would support the case; a clean margin below 37%, revenue at or below $54.5M, or a third quarter flattered by a one-off would not.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 3 November. A margin of 10.8% or more, stock below 120 days of sales and cash coming in support the case. A margin below 10.4%, stock above 135 days, or a third quarter of cash going out, especially alongside new financing, pressures it.
We will look forResults and the first combined guidance on 3 November 2026. December-quarter sales guided at $1.9B or more, a 47% or better share kept after making the chips, and the savings reaffirmed would support us; less would press the view down.
We will look forSeptember-quarter results on 4 November. Debt measures improving from June, and a named new agreement or a firm building decision on the pipeline, would support the case. Debt flat or higher, or the pipeline still at active discussions, would pressure it.
We will look forThird-quarter results on 3 November 2026. Recurring gross profit of at least $620M, 8,000 or more new locations and the full-year guide held says the plan is on track; less than $615M, fewer than 7,000 locations or a guide cut for hardware says it is slipping.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 4 November. Growth well above June's 11.3%, still at a profit on what it sells, would back the promise. Growth near that pace, a cut range or a return to selling at a loss would confirm the doubt.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 4 November. Sales of at least $154M, margin above 10% and cash following would say the orders were real demand. Sales short of that, margin back under 9%, or cash still lagging would say they came early.
We will look forThe September-quarter results in November. Sales inside the $2.06B to $2.09B promise say June was timing; a miss, or Unity outgrowing it again, says demand or rivals.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 4 November. Adjusted profit of $117M or more, with sales up near 30% and members near 20%, would be the first of the two quarters the upgrade needs. A miss, faster-rising MyPay losses or still no finance chief count against.
We will look forFirst-quarter fiscal 2027 results, due 4 November. Operating cash above $400M, inventory days falling and adjusted gross margin at 41.5% or better would weaken our case; cash under $200M, inventory above 200 days and margin at 39.5% or lower would confirm it.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 4 November. A fall of less than 10% in the price per business-payment dollar, with that arm still growing 16% or better, supports the plan. Another fall over 15%, or growth below 14%, says the erosion is the market's price.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 3 November. Revenue per member growing faster than June's 11%, with late payments at or below 2.12%, supports the case. Anything less says the fee lever is weaker, or bought with credit.
We will look forThird-quarter results on 4 November 2026. Earnings of at least Q3 2025's $129.3M, with guidance and Iraq's start date kept, would support the case; a guidance cut or a later Iraq start would weaken it.
We will look forThe results on 4 November. A 2027 mortgage price of $10, a 2027 revenue forecast above $2.53B and fourth-quarter mortgage revenue of at least $256M support us; a lower price or forecast, or lost volume, says the rival is winning.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 11 November. Sales up more than 3% from June and adjusted profit above $98M, margin steady, say the business grows on its own; flat sales, profit below $92M or a margin under 39% say it does not.
We will look forThe November 4 results. Revenue outside the ten largest customers growing 12% or more, with sales of at least $184M, supports the business case; anything less says the growth was the largest customers and one-off events.
We will look forThird-quarter results on 4 November. Phase 2 financed with project debt, both campuses on schedule and a new lease would support the case; new shares, a slipped date or nothing signed would press on it.
We will look forThe September-quarter results, due 4 November. Contracts waiting on the plant above $3.0B, with a cost and size showing more than 2 million SWU a year, would weaken our view; no cost and no growth in contracts would confirm it.
We will look forThe Q3 2026 results on 4 November 2026. An operating margin of 7.5% or more with late loans at or below 7.5% would support recovery; a margin under 6% or Brazil's profit falling again would point the other way.
We will look forThird-quarter results, due 4 November. Operating costs at or below $280M and the guided 26.3% adjusted margin, in a quarter when packaging did not grow, say the cost discipline is built in; costs above $285M or gross margin below 46% say it was volume.
We will look forResults on November 4. Sales for the first nine months holding at or above last year, with the 2026 outlook kept, support us; a cut to the outlook or faster-falling US injection sales argue the fade is speeding up.
We will look forQ3 2026 results on 4 November. Recurring revenue of $503.8M or more, up 8%, with the full-year forecast held or raised, supports the case. Less than that, or a cut to the forecast, weakens it.
We will look forThird-quarter results, due 5 November. Old-reserve releases at a quarter or more of underwriting profit, with this year's claims above 39.5% of premium, would confirm the result leans on the past; releases below 10% with costs near 77% would say this year's business stands alone.
We will look forQ3 2026 results on 4 November. Revenue of $840M or more, adjusted profit of $51M or more, the 2026 forecast held at $3.42B or more and Thorne named as staying support us; anything less argues against.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 17 November. Reported earnings above $1.01 a share, last year's level, with DuPont's old costs under $20M, would show the gap closing. Below $0.80, or those costs at $42M again, would widen it.
We will look forQ3 2026 results on 29 October. Long-term financing in place, or an AMD loan closed with mining gross profit of $40M or more, would support us; no lender named and weaker mining would press the view down.
We will look forResults on 4 November. Sales of $340M or more with an adjusted gross margin of 26% or better, excluding July's tariff refunds, and the credit sized under half of gross profit would count against us. Sales below $310M, margin below 22%, or inverters falling again would support us.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 4 November. Sales of $285M or more, with SiTime's own parts at $200M or more and a December guide that grows again, would support the business case; a miss or a flat guide would point to stockpiling ending.
We will look forThird-quarter results on 4 November 2026. Royalty output above 40 thousand barrels a day, water sales recovering, or a signed data-centre deal would support the business case; output below 37 thousand with no contract would weaken it.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 3 November. Bookings near the $60.25B top of the guidance, with profit above 3.7% of them, would support us; bookings at the $58.25B floor or below, or profit flat as a share of them, would not.
We will look forQ3 2026 results on 3 November. An operating margin of 5% or more before one-off costs, with Sensors profit outgrowing its revenue, says the orders are turning into earnings. Below 5% says the price is still paying for a plan.
We will look forSeptember-quarter results on 4 November. Sales of at least $945M, gross margin of 24.0% or more, orders still 10% ahead of shipments and distributor stock no higher than 18 weeks would support the upturn; anything weaker points to stockpiling running out.
We will look forQ1 fiscal 2027 results on 4 November. Sales of $150M or more, chip sales above $106.3M, a smaller gross loss and a dollar figure for data-centre sales would support a recovery; anything less would not.
We will look forThe Q3 2026 results on 5 November. Sales of at least $272.5M, 800G sales near $64M and a fourth-quarter guide of $450M or more would say the ramp is real; less says it is late again.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 5 November. Cleaning growing from the quarter before, plus a first production order for either new line, would support the case; cleaning flat or down with both still on trial says the growth is further off.
We will look forFirst-quarter results on 5 November. Keeping close to 4.16% of each purchase, with purchases still growing above 20%, says the turn is durable. Slipping toward the old target, or growth sinking toward online shopping's pace, says it was one good year.
We will look forQ3 2026 results on 3 November. Revenue of $24M or more, a loss before share pay of $3M or less and a 2026 guide still at $95M or more support us; anything less argues against.
We will look forThird-quarter results on 5 November. Rented computing up 50% or more, security up 8% or more and a 2027 funding plan of debt or customer money would support the case. Slower growth, or funding that includes new shares or is left unnamed, would weaken it.
We will look forThe Q3 2026 results in early November. Customer A at 35% of sales or more, or sales to everyone else lower than a year earlier, supports our view; Customer A below 35% with everyone else flat or growing pressures it.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 4 November. Corporate customers leaving at under 3.0% a month, each paying over $305, with corporate growth of 9% or more, would say the new accounts are real. Losses still at 3.16% with spend flat would say they are small ones relabelled.
We will look forThird-quarter results, due 4 November. Outside sales above $40M with the loss per sales dollar under 45 cents would weaken our view; outside sales under $40M, a deeper loss or a cut forecast would confirm it.
We will look forThe 9 November report. Subscription growth of 13% or more, the seat business at 6% or more and retention of 107% or more support the view; anything weaker pressures it.
We will look forQ3 2026 results on 5 November. Profit of $140M or more before interest and tax, a second signed sale at $250,000 a bed or more with GEO still running it, and proceeds going to debt or buybacks support the case. A miss, or no further sale, weakens it.
We will look forThe second-quarter results on 6 November. Gross margin at 24.5% or better, operating profit above $5.5M and the sales forecast held would say the plan is arriving. Margin back below 24%, operating profit no better than the first quarter's $4.15M, or a lower forecast would say it is not.
We will look forThe September quarter on 2 November. Adjusted earnings of $0.77 a share or more, the cash-profit margin near 20.6% and a named data-centre order would support the case. Below $0.70, a trimmed full-year range, or the order slipping into 2027 again, would not.
We will look forResults around 4 November 2026. Keeping the yearly forecast, growth near 100% without purchases and the 256-qubit machine still due in early 2027 would support the company; a cut or a later date would confirm our view.
We will look forResults on November 5, 2026. Signed rentals held above $4B, Microsoft's halls on schedule and new money raised mainly as debt would support the case; a delayed hall, a cut target or a large share sale would weaken it.
We will look forThe September-quarter results, due 12 November. A signed lease with a strong tenant would close the main gap in our view; no lease, or a dropped 2026 target, would confirm it.
We will look forOn 5 November: sales of $460M to $480M, profit before non-cash charges of $40M or more, positive cash flow and 2027 growth guided at 15% or more would support us; less would say growth is not turning into cash.
We will look forQ1 fiscal 2027 results, due around 3 November. Revenue of $1.25B or more, an operating margin before one-off items of 39.5% or more and a next-quarter guide of $1.40B or more would support the business; anything short would pressure it.
We will look forThe September-quarter results, due around 4 November 2026. Yearly customer payments of at least $1.537B, the outlook held or raised and claims at or below 67 cents a dollar before releases would support the case; a miss or a cut would weaken it.
We will look forThe September-quarter results and December fixture, due 5 November. A December rate well below $88,000, or five-year charters still in the $40,000s as Middle East loadings recover, supports our view. December at or above $88,000 as loadings recover, or charters above $60,000, pressures it.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 4 November. Profit at 3.5% of bookings or more, with discounts growing slower than bookings, says the margin is real. Below that, or discounts racing ahead again, says it was the insurance windfall.
We will look forQ3 2026 results on 3 November. Profit before interest of $1.09B to $1.14B, up 5% to 10%, fits our view: growth on plan with the remedy still open. Much weaker with a cut forecast, or much stronger with a raised one and an insider buying, would move us.
We will look forQ2 fiscal 2027 results around 5 November. Sales of at least $1.589B, a 66% or better margin, distributor stock under 30 days and debt below 2.5 times earnings would support the recovery; anything weaker would point to an upturn running out.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on November 5. GM deliveries still on track for the fourth quarter, and the new defence customer showing up in the sales table, would support the case; another GM delay, or the new deal invisible in unchanged figures, would not.
We will look forThird-quarter results on 29 October. Revenue of $737M to $765M, growth of 31% to 36% and net retention near 120% is strong but fits our view. Revenue above $770M, growth of 37% or more and a forecast raised by over $60M weakens it.
We will look forThe third-quarter report on 5 November 2026. Gross profit up 8% or more with cloud up 15% and the guide held supports the recovery; under 8%, falling hardware profit or a guide cut says the peak has passed.
We will look forQ3 2026 results on 5 November. A second-half loss inside the guide, with the risk-adjustment payment near a fifth of premium and removals inside 250,000 to 300,000, supports Neutral. A guide raised on this year's claims rather than old releases would push toward Attractive.
We will look forThird-quarter results on 5 November 2026. Recurring revenue growing faster than 12.3% without Bridg, with the forecast held, would show the speed-up has started; 12.3% or less, or a cut forecast, would say it has not.
We will look forFirst-quarter results on 3 November. Recurring revenue of $420.6M or more, up 11%, with the full-year forecast raised, supports the case. Less than that, or no raise, weakens it.
We will look forOn 5 November: fiscal 2027 guidance for growth of 5% or more and earnings near analysts' $14.91 would support the business; guidance below 4% growth or $14.20 would say the price has run ahead of it.
We will look forThird-quarter results on 5 November 2026. Sales of at least $80.5M, last year's figure, with the forecast kept, would show the rise has started; less, or a cut forecast, would say the holiday is carrying too much.
We will look forSeptember-quarter results in November. Ad revenue at or above its guide and a first reported profit with stock pay below 14% of revenue would count against us. Ad revenue below $380M, or stock pay flat or rising against revenue, would support us.
We will look forThe September quarter on 6 November. Gross margin at 45% or better, the surcharges still listed and operating costs under 11% of sales would say rising costs are being passed on. Gross margin below 44%, or surcharges quietly dropped, would say the price is being given up.
We will look forResults on November 5. The 2027 aim of $7.4B to $7.8B held or raised, Cogentrix closing, or new signed demand beyond Meta supports us; a cut blamed on lower realised prices or a longer Texas queue pause does not.
We will look forThe Q3 2026 report, due around 7 November. GEICO paying out no more than 92 cents of each dollar customers paid and the railroad spending no more than 66 cents per revenue dollar would support the view; worse on either would pressure it.
We will look forResults around 9 November 2026. At least 10 large satellites in orbit with the early-2027 goal held would support the company; a later goal or another fundraising would confirm our view.
We will look forThe September-quarter results, due around 9 November. A signed guarantee, a project loan and no shares sold would answer the funding worry; a guarantee still 'anticipated' and more shares sold would confirm it.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 9 November. A forecast held or raised and a new buyer named beyond Walmart would support the higher price. A cut, no new named deal, or PJM's rule moving against existing plants would say it is not earned.
We will look forQ3 2026 results on November 9. Sales of $3.45B to $3.6B with profit before interest of at least $200M and this year's targets held says the plan is on track; a miss, a cut target or interest above $940M says it is slipping.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 5 November. A signed contract, or a firm date for the final go-ahead, on the terms described would support the case. A stalled negotiation, worse terms or silence on timing would say the data-centre plan is further away than it reads.
We will look forThe September quarter on 5 November. Reported operating margin in or above 21.4% to 22.4%, restructuring at or below $17M and an end date for the programme would support the case. A miss, higher charges, or charges guided into 2027 with no end date, would not.
We will look forQ3 2026 results on 2026-11-11. Good news: revenue of $29.0M or more, at least 165 programs, at least 561 centers, and an operating margin of 21.3% or more with no one-off gain. Any one of those missing would count against us.
We will look forThird-quarter results on 9 November 2026. Imaging earnings under $90M, or a margin no better than last year's 16.2%, would support our view; above $99M with a margin over 17% would weaken it.
We will look forThe September-quarter results, around 9 November. Revenue inside $250M to $265M, margin at or above the 29-cent floor and a firm Neutron pad date and a first-launch date in the first half of 2027 support the business; a margin miss, a guidance cut or another slip pressures it.
We will look forThe fiscal 2026 results and first fiscal 2027 forecast on 2 November. $16B or more, a margin of 7.5% or better and AI racks counted from the first quarter would support the case. Under $15B, a margin below 7%, or a ramp pushed to the second half would not.
We will look forThird-quarter results on 9 November 2026. Revenue of $49.9M or more, the profit guide held and awards from the bids named would support the case; revenue below $49.2M, a cut guide or decisions pushed into 2027 would pressure it.
We will look forThe Q3 2026 results on 3 November. Growth without acquisitions or election ads of 23% or more, with delivery costs at 41% of sales or less, supports the case; anything weaker pressures it.
We will look forThe September-quarter results in November. Gross margin at 41% or more, revenue at the top of the RMB1,150M guide and a clear operating profit without grants support the case. Gross margin below 38%, or revenue below RMB1,100M, pressures it.
We will look forFirst-quarter fiscal 2027 results, due by mid-November. Gross margin at 38% or better and orders on hand above $115M, with no new share-funded purchase, would weaken our case; margin under 36%, orders under $105M, or another such purchase would confirm it.
We will look forQ3 2026 results, around November 10. A yearly billing pace of $4.5B or more at September 30, with the year-end target held, says the ramp is on track; below that, or a cut target, says it is slipping.
We will look forThe first-quarter FY27 results on 12 November. Revenue at the top of $18.0B to $18.2B with the gross margin at 65% or more says the plan is on track; a lower margin or slower orders says the refresh is fading.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 11 November. Sales of $140M or more, recurring revenue of $193M or more and a fiscal 2027 guide up 8% before the new purchase support the case; less says growth is bought or early.
We will look forSecond-quarter fiscal 2027 results on 4 November. Sales of $955M or more, earnings per share without the credit of $1.95 or more, and forklift orders up on the year would support us; less would press the view down.
We will look forQ3 2026 results, due 11 November. Revenue near $104M, up 27%, with gross profit up at least 13%, says the growth is sticking. Growth below 22% says the summer did the work.
We will look forThe September-quarter results, due 11 November. Sales above June's $3.09M with the margin recovering, plus a federal or e-commerce order, would weaken our view; flat sales or a margin still under 25 cents would confirm it.
We will look forFull-year results on 12 November. Falling unpaid bills and full-year cash above $6.5B would argue against our caution; cash below last year's $5.7B on 21% sales growth, with tax still near 13%, would confirm it.
We will look forThe Q3 2026 report, due 12 November. Twelve-month earnings per share before asset sales above $2.39 and property earnings at or above $600M would support the view; either falling short would pressure it.
We will look forThe September-quarter results on 11 November. Operating profit near $78M or more with costs near $55M says the promise holds; profit below $70M with costs still near $63M says the year's goal is at risk.
We will look forThe September-quarter results due 12 November. A slice of 3.5 cents or more with pretax profit above June's $83.0M supports the case; a lower slice, lower profit or no Kiavi profit figure pressures it.
We will look forThe quarterly report due around 12 November. If a scandium buyer commits at a price near the study's, or the loan reaches a decision, the case holds; if scandium stays unsold, or new shares come before any loan, it counts against it.
We will look forThird-quarter results on 12 November. A lending margin after losses of 12% or more, with the tax rate back above 20% and serious defaults flat or lower, supports the case. A gap under 11%, or profit again propped up by a tax rate under 20%, counts against.
We will look forThird-quarter results, due 12 November. Sales above $150M, a filed growth figure above 30% for businesses already owned, and a quarterly loss under $25M would weaken our view; a miss, a wider loss or growth again almost all bought would confirm it.
We will look forSeptember-quarter results, due 12 November. A signed Kati 2 lease with a named tenant, cash still well above the $9.2M of remaining debt, and no more than 260 million shares would help; no lease, new debt or more shares sold would confirm the view.
We will look forThe 13 November results. A sale of 2026 credits to an outside buyer, a signed plant financing and a gross profit without refunds would ease the central doubt. None of the three would sharpen it.
Silicom's September-quarter sales were $26.7M, up 71% and above its own $25M to $26M forecast. It made $0.3M on the adjusted measure but lost $0.3M on the reported one. It raised this year's sales forecast to $96M to $98M. Cash and bonds fell $10M to $45.0M as stock rose. It gave no AI sales figure.
What it did to the thesisThis supports the sales recovery we already granted. It does not answer the question that decides our view: the AI line still has no number, customer or order size. The view stays Unattractive and confidence Medium; year-end results are the next test.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.04 | -$0.04 | +$0.08 |
| Sales | $26.70M | $25.45M | +$1.2M (+4.9%) |
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Management guides AI-inference revenue to roughly $3-4M of FY2026's $93-95M revenue (about 4%), despite the release and call describing it as a 'game…
Silicom secured 7 of a targeted 7-9 new Design Wins for 2026 by early August 2026 (roughly halfway through the year), against a stated base of over 4…
A registration statement (shelf) became effective 2026-06-30 per EDGAR; an analyst on the Q2 2026 call described 'a lot of investor consternation' ar…
Quanta's third-quarter sales were $12.01B, up 57.4%, and it kept 8.5 cents of each sales dollar as operating profit, up from 6.8 cents a year earlier. Its backlog of signed and expected work reached a record $63.7B and it raised its 2026 forecast for the third time this year. It has not yet said how much of the growth was bought.
What it did to the thesisThe margin test passed, so margins really are rising, which weakens the reason we found the shares unattractive. The price is still far above rivals', so the view stays Unattractive, but our confidence in it drops from Medium to Low.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $6.06 | $5.02 | +$1.04 (+20.7%) |
| Sales | $12.01B | $11.03B | +$981.1M (+8.9%) |
At June 30, 2026 Quanta reported backlog of $53.44B, against $43.98B at December 31, 2025, and $32.31B of it expected within twelve months. Remaining…
Merck sold $18.1 billion in the September quarter. Keytruda, its cancer drug, grew 6% to $8.6 billion, and the under-the-skin version sold $830 million, up from $463 million. About $550 million of growth was customers' buying-timing. Merck narrowed its sales forecast upward to $66.8 to $67.3 billion, and the FDA accepted its sac-TMT cancer drug for review.
What it did to the thesisAll three of our tests were met, which supports the case. But the shares already price this in, the court fights over the injected version are unresolved, and the next-wave drugs are mostly unlaunched. The view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.49 | $2.09 | +$0.40 (+19.1%) |
| Sales | $18.09B | $17.33B | +$754.2M (+4.4%) |
Management says Qlex adoption has risen since a permanent billing code arrived in April, used mostly so far in patients on Keytruda alone or with a p…
Merck guides 2026 sales to $66.3B-$67.3B and profit per share before some items to $2.66-$2.76, after one-time deal charges of $3.62 for Cidara and $…
Adding those charges back gives about $8.76 a share for 2026 at the middle of the range, roughly $21.7B on 2.48 billion shares.
Lilly sold $24.4 billion in the September quarter, 39% more than a year ago: it sold 53% more medicine at prices 15% lower. It raised its 2026 sales forecast to $91 to $92 billion, but trimmed its earnings forecast because of $4.57 a share spent buying research companies. A day earlier it said its retatrutide drug beat Ozempic head to head.
What it did to the thesisThe trade of lower prices for more volume kept working, which supports our case. But gross margin slipped to 83.9%, below our 84% line, and the earnings call was not yet available. The view stays Neutral: the patent end date and rival's pill are unchanged.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $7.48 | $5.68 | +$1.80 (+31.7%) |
| Sales | $24.40B | $22.58B | +$1.81B (+8.0%) |
Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $85.0-87.0 billion from $82-85 billion and performance margin to 49.0-50.5% from 47.0-48.5%, while cutting…
Revenue guidance for 2026 has been raised twice: from $80-83 billion at the outset to $82-85 billion in April and $85-87 billion in August, with perf…
Hippo wrote $498.1M of insurance premium, up 60.1%, and its claims-plus-costs ratio was 98.4%, where under 100% means an underwriting profit. Adjusted profit was $20M, but reported profit was $8.8M. It kept only 30% of premium, below its mid-30s goal. It raised its yearly adjusted profit goal to $77M to $80M.
What it did to the thesisThis meets our test: premium above $440M, a ratio under 101% and a raised goal. The view stays Neutral because the price already pays for the 2028 plan, reported profit is still well under $25M a quarter and the call is not yet readable.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.74 | $0.08 | +$0.66 |
| Sales | $156.00M | $153.88M | +$2.1M (+1.4%) |
FTAI's engine-repair business sold $910.0M in the quarter and kept 31 cents of each dollar as operating profit before interest, tax and wear. It rebuilt 311 engine modules. FTAI also said it will buy back $500M of its own shares through a bank, and that its first power turbine is due next year.
What it did to the thesisMixed, so nothing moved. The engine margin test passed, but profit of $282.4M was just under the $289M a quarter the year's goal needs, and the turbine we had hoped to see by December is a 2027 event. Two big customers and cash use wait for the filing.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.43 | $1.41 | +$0.02 (+1.4%) |
| Sales | $977.66M | $1.00B | -$24.9M (-2.5%) |
On 15 September 2026 FTAI's board authorised the repurchase of up to $500 million of ordinary shares through 30 September 2029, to be funded from cas…
The reaffirmed $1,050 million 2026 Aerospace Products adjusted EBITDA guidance, against $472.3 million earned in the first half, requires $577.7 mill…
Entegris's sales rose 24.6% to $1,005.7M, well above the $905M to $935M it had guided. Profit before depreciation was 30.2% of sales against a guided 28.0% to 29.0%, and adjusted earnings were $1.23 a share against $0.96 to $1.04. The materials business grew 15.9%. It guided the next quarter to $1,025M to $1,055M.
What it did to the thesisThis meets the test we set: the margin cleared 29% and materials grew above 10%. It does not move the view, which stays Neutral, because the shares are still priced far above their own long-run average and the earnings call is not yet readable.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.23 | $1.03 | +$0.20 (+19.4%) |
| Sales | $1.01B | $925.35M | +$80.3M (+8.7%) |
EMCOR's September-quarter earnings per share beat forecasts by 14.7% and sales by 6.8%. Work still to do hit a record $18.57B, up 47.3%. Nine-month cash reached 98.0% of net income. Mechanical margin fell to 12.1%. It raised its full-year forecast again and added $500M to its buyback.
What it did to the thesisThis supports our case. Cash nearly caught up, booked work grew and the forecast went up a third time. The view stays Attractive and confidence Medium: the call was not yet held, and the mechanical margin is still falling.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $9.60 | $8.37 | +$1.23 (+14.7%) |
| Sales | $5.54B | $5.19B | +$353.0M (+6.8%) |
EMCOR's remaining performance obligations were $17.14bn at 30 June 2026, up 43.9% year on year, and 95% of the growth was organic according to manage…
The share of remaining performance obligations expected to convert within one year fell to 76.0% at 30 June 2026 from 81.6% at 31 December 2025; mana…
Management's stated cash flow algorithm is operating cash flow at least equal to net income, and 80% to 85% of operating income; the first half deliv…
EMCOR held $924.4m of cash at 30 June 2026 with no borrowings drawn, total equity of $4.08bn, and it drew nothing on its revolving credit facility in…
EMCOR raised 2026 guidance twice, from $17.75-18.50bn of revenue and $27.25-29.25 of diluted earnings per share in February to $20.00-20.50bn and $32…
BorgWarner's sales fell 2.9% to $3,487M, but its adjusted operating margin rose to 10.9%. It kept its yearly margin goal at 10.7% to 10.9% and raised its earnings-per-share goal to $5.20 to $5.35, citing share buybacks and a lower tax rate. It repaid $864M of debt. The release said nothing about turbine volumes or a second customer.
What it did to the thesisHalf the test was met: the margin goal held. The other half, a turbine order or extra capacity, was not in the release, and the earnings call is not yet readable. The view stays Neutral until the call is read.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.39 | $1.25 | +$0.14 (+11.2%) |
| Sales | $3.49B | $3.50B | In line |
Vertiv sold $4.31 billion in the September quarter, up 61%; without purchased companies, 55%, against a forecast of 34% to 36%. Margin was 25.2%, customer deposits rose to $4.12 billion and it raised its 2026 sales forecast by $650 million. On the call, management said orders are real demand, that $100 to $150 million of the quarter's sales were delayed from spring, and gave no 2027 outlook.
What it did to the thesisThe test we wrote down passed on every count. The call gave no order figure, and part of the quarter's growth was delayed sales arriving late. The view stays Neutral because the price already counts on years of this growth.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.21 | $1.82 | +$0.39 (+21.4%) |
| Sales | $4.31B | $3.75B | +$563.5M (+15.0%) |
Vertiv guides full year 2026 to net sales of $13,800M to $14,200M, organic sales growth of 30% to 32%, adjusted operating margin of 23.3% to 24.3% an…
Current deferred revenue rose from $1,814.7M at 31 December 2025 to $3,633.7M at 30 June 2026, and $1,277.3M of the opening balance was recognised in…
Vertiv's operating margin rose from 4.7% in 2019 and 3.9% in 2022 to 17.9% in 2025 and 19.1% over the trailing twelve months, with full year 2026 adj…
Vertiv ended Q2 2026 with $2,810.6M of cash and $300.0M of short-term investments against $2,939.8M of long-term debt and no current portion, a net c…
Vertiv expects the UtilityInnovation Group and King Environmental Services acquisitions to close in the fourth quarter of 2026, the first subject to…
Tyler's cloud software sales grew 21.2% to $242.2M in the September quarter, the 23rd quarter in a row above 20%. Payment fees grew 14.2% leaving out an ended Texas contract. Free cash flow hit a record $277M. It kept its profit forecast of $12.95 to $13.20 a share and trimmed the top of its revenue range by $10M.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The quarter met all three signs we set: cloud growth of 20% or more, fees outside Texas up 10% or more, and the profit forecast held. It supports the business, but the price and the AI question stay open, so the view stays Neutral until the 2027 forecast.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.52 | $3.48 | +$0.04 (+1.1%) |
| Sales | $647.57M | $651.53M | -$4.0M (-0.6%) |
2026 guidance, raised in July: revenue $2.535B to $2.575B, non-GAAP EPS $12.95 to $13.20 (first given in February as $12.40 to $12.65), free cash flo…
At 30 June 2026 Tyler held $895.4M of cash and $74.7M of short-term investments against $1.4375B of 0.50% convertible notes due 2031, which convert a…
Deferred revenue was $816.9M at 30 June 2026, about 98% to be recognised within 12 months; Tyler says contract value beyond that is not a meaningful…
Tenable's September-quarter sales rose 9.5% to $276.4M and it raised its yearly forecast. Customers spent 7% more than a year earlier and 39 more paid six figures. On the call management said 59% of new business was its platform, expects spending growth to hold at 107% in Q4, and was not asked about pay in shares, 18.5% of sales.
What it did to the thesisThe call backs the working parts of our case: wins look broad and margins steady. It left the hinge open, since pay in shares rose to 18.5% of sales and was not discussed. Neutral and Medium hold; falling below 15% of sales would move us toward Attractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.63 | $0.51 | +$0.12 (+23.6%) |
| Sales | $276.39M | $271.58M | +$4.8M (+1.8%) |
Full-year 2026 guidance of $1.075B to $1.081B, less the filed first half and the Q3 guide, implies fourth-quarter revenue growth of about 5.9% at the…
The net dollar expansion rate rose to 106% in Q2 2026 from 105%, which management says is the first quarter-on-quarter increase since Q1 2022.
The improvement in large-account demand is real and recent: Tenable added 5 net new six-figure customers in Q4 2025 and 32 in Q2 2026.
TE Connectivity's sales rose 12% to a record $5.31 billion and profit per share rose 21% to $3.14, both above its forecast. Orders reached $6.06 billion. Data-centre sales grew 34% and car sales 6% without currency. It expects next quarter's sales up 15%. On the call it said next year should grow near 12% and data-centre sales add over $1 billion.
What it did to the thesisIt met every part of our test, so the case is stronger on growth. The call repeated the car claim: 4% to 6% above falling production, which is only management's word so far. We stay neutral because the price already assumes data centres carry the company.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.14 | $3.07 | +$0.07 (+2.3%) |
| Sales | $5.31B | $5.29B | In line |
Management guides the September 2026 quarter to about $5.25B of sales (up 11%, organic and reported), adjusted EPS of about $3.05 and GAAP EPS of abo…
Management says automotive content will beat vehicle production by 4 to 6 points this year and longer term, that its China business grew 6% against p…
Management says AI is about 70% or more of digital data networks, about $2.4B in fiscal 2026, and that it is ahead of a $3B target set for fiscal 202…
Management guides the December 2026 quarter to about $5.35B of sales (up 15%, reported and organic) and adjusted EPS of about $3.30 (up 21%; GAAP abo…
Management says copper stays 'the workhorse' inside the AI rack, that TE has only a limited position in the already-optical scale-out network, and th…
Silicon Motion's September-quarter sales were $560.2M, up 24% on the quarter and above its $519M-$541M forecast. Its gross margin rose to 53.6% and it guided the December quarter to $588M-$616M. But inventory rose to $870.9M from $673.0M, and its operations used $256.1M of cash. The call had not been posted yet.
What it did to the thesisSales and margin beat our lines, which supports the case. Stock and cash outflow went the wrong way, which pressures it, so the quarter settles nothing about whether the margin outlasts the flash shortage. The view stays Neutral, medium conviction, until the call is read.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $4.35 | $3.30 | +$1.05 (+31.8%) |
| Sales | $560.20M | $529.10M | +$31.1M (+5.9%) |
Gross margin rose to 50.2% while low-margin solutions grew from 4% to near 30% of revenue. If controllers held their 47.7% of a year earlier, solutio…
Inventory was $673.0M at 30 June 2026 against $421.8M at 31 December 2025; raw materials, mostly NAND, rose from $172.3M to $430.7M in six months. Re…
In the first half of 2026 cash from operations was minus $95.0M, against plus $33.0M a year earlier; cash fell from $201.8M to $74.4M and a $59.2M ba…
ServiceNow's subscription sales rose 21% to $3,988M, above its guide, and contracted sales due within a year grew 20.5%. It raised its cash profit goal to 36%. On the call it said early renewals made up about half of the contracted-sales beat and are taken from Q4, so Q4 growth is guided to 18.5%.
What it did to the thesisCustomers are staying and growth holds, but the call shows part of the Q3 beat was renewals pulled forward, so the slowdown is partly timing and partly real. Nothing broke. Neutral and Medium hold, since the price still asks more than the plan delivers.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.00 | $1.02 | -$0.02 (-2.0%) |
| Sales | $4.11B | $4.09B | In line |
Management guides 2026 subscription revenue of $15.76B to $15.78B, 21% growth at constant currency including about 1.25 points from Armis, with an ad…
Growth in contracted revenue due within a year (cRPO) slowed from 25% at the end of 2025 to 22.5% in Q1 2026 and 21% in Q2 2026, with Armis inside th…
Adjusted subscription gross margin fell from 83% in Q2 2025 to 80.5% in Q2 2026, and the 2026 guide went from 82% to 81%. The 10-Q puts it on staff,…
Microsoft's sales rose 19% to $92.3 billion and Azure grew 48%, faster than promised. On the call it guided Azure growth to 49% to 50% for December and about $170 billion of data-centre spending for the year, and said free cash flow stays positive. Free cash flow was $18.6 billion, down from $25.7 billion a year earlier.
What it did to the thesisThe business half of our case is stronger: Azure and Office beat our bars and the Azure guide went up. Management still gave no figure for signed contracts outside OpenAI, so the view stays Neutral until that and cash improve.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $4.89 | $4.72 | +$0.17 (+3.6%) |
| Sales | $92.28B | $90.62B | +$1.66B (+1.8%) |
Management guided the September 2026 quarter to revenue of $89.85B to $90.95B, Agents and Infra revenue of $75.15B to $75.75B, Azure growth of 44% to…
Commercial remaining performance obligation was $678B at June 30, 2026, up 84%, with a weighted average duration of about 2.3 years; total remaining…
OpenAI is a related party held under the equity method. Fiscal 2026 revenue from OpenAI, including its revenue-share payments, was $24.1B, with $6.0B…
Fiscal 2026 operating cash flow was $182,935M and cash spent on property and equipment $115,948M, so free cash flow was about $67.0B against $71.6B i…
At June 30, 2026 contractual obligations were $743,821M, including $443,506M of lease payments and $194,060M of purchase commitments; leases not yet…
At June 30, 2026 Microsoft held $76.8B of cash and short-term investments against $40.3B of long-term debt at carrying value ($46.1B of principal), w…
Analysts were 96.5% positive across 57 on October 1, 2026 against 95.0% of 60 in February; the average target drifted up 4.2%; consensus fiscal 2027…
In fiscal 2026 Microsoft repurchased 36M shares for $16.7B under its program, paid $22,271M in cash for repurchases in all and $26,445M in dividends,…
Management guided the September 2026 quarter to revenue of $89.85B to $90.95B, Agents and Infra revenue of $75.15B to $75.75B, Azure growth of 44% to…
June 2026 quarter revenue was $90.0B, up 18%; Azure and other cloud services grew 43%; adjusted EPS was $4.74 including a $0.27 benefit from discrete…
KLA's September-quarter sales grew 29% to $4.14B and it earned $1.22 a share adjusted. Cash from operations was nearly all of profit and it guided December sales to $4.7B. On the call it raised its 2026 chip-equipment market view to about $155B, expects over $200B in 2027, and said memory costs keep gross margin near 62.5%.
What it did to the thesisThis eased our doubts on cash and showed demand is bigger than we assumed. The view stays Unattractive: the shares fell 17.9% yet still cost 42.0 times a year's earnings against a six-year norm of 26.7, so the price still pays for a peak.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.22 | $1.19 | +$0.03 (+2.5%) |
| Sales | $4.14B | $4.04B | +$93.4M (+2.3%) |
Management guided the September 2026 quarter to revenue of $4.0 billion plus or minus $200 million - 24.6% above the year-earlier quarter - with GAAP…
Management put calendar 2026 wafer-fab equipment in the 'low $150 billion range', having raised the outlook four times during the year, and said the…
Vendor-panel consensus puts fiscal 2029 earnings at $8.046 a share on seven analysts, which would be a 30.0% compound annual rate from the $3.66 deli…
Management says memory-component pricing is a gross margin headwind of around 100 basis points, 'probably a little bit more than that', and that it l…
At $187.11 the shares trade at 51.1 times fiscal 2026 diluted earnings, against a six-year median price-to-earnings of 26.7; price to sales is 18.1 a…
Earnings would have to rise 91.6%, from $3.66 to $7.01 a share, before today's price of $187.11 represents only the six-year median price-to-earnings…
Receivable days rose from 64.9 to 71.9 as accounts receivable grew 27.6% against revenue growth of 11.7%. Days of inventory fell slightly, from 242 t…
St. Joe's September-quarter revenue fell 3% to $156.2M, with 80 homesites sold against 189. Its home-building venture closed 67 homes against 82. Operating profit still rose 16% to $61.5M, helped by $50.4M of land sold to the venture for 3,500 more homes, which takes its plan to about 7,200. The call has not been posted yet.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. We asked whether homesite sales would rise and whether estimated top-ups would stay high. Sales fell and the top-ups went quiet. The venture's growth adds years of runway but no profit yet, so the view stays Unattractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.65 | — | — |
| Sales | $156.20M | — | — |
St. Joe sold 911 homesites in 2025, 912 in 2024 and 1,063 in 2023.
The joint venture completed 169 home sales in the first half of 2026 against 329 a year earlier, and St. Joe's equity income from it fell to $10.0M f…
The joint venture is planned for about 3,700 homes and had 2,359 occupied at 30 June 2026, 64% of the total, with 2,542 contracts written since sales…
St. Joe recognised $14.6M of revenue from estimated homesite residuals in the first half of 2026 against $3.4M a year earlier, and collected $5.3M.
The $11.2M rise in residual revenue recognised is larger than the $10.7M rise in first-half pre-tax income.
Excluding two long-dated bulk contracts, 1,104 homesites were under contract at 30 June 2026 for about $109.2M, against 1,209 for about $121.7M a yea…
Alphabet's sales rose 25% to $127.6 billion. Google Cloud grew 103% and signed contracts reached $560.8 billion. Search grew 12%, down from 17%; management blamed currency, weaker retail and media spending and AI searches that earn less. After $51.4 billion on data centres, free cash flow was minus $9.1 billion, and $12.4 billion of shares were sold.
What it did to the thesisCloud and search beat the bars we set, and the call kept spending rising into 2027 with cash under pressure. The shares fell sharply before the open, but nothing in the call argues against Cloud or search. The view stays Neutral until cash catches up.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.12 | $3.01 | -$0.89 (-29.6%) |
| Sales | $127.58B | $127.97B | In line |
Revenue backlog was $519.5B at June 30, 2026, of which $513.9B was Google Cloud; just over 50% is expected to be recognized within 24 months. Since Q…
Management guided 2026 capital spending to $175B to $185B in February, then raised it to $195B to $205B in July from $180B to $190B, said 2027 spendi…
In June 2026 Alphabet sold 58M new shares for $20.5B net, placed 28M more with Berkshire Hathaway for $10.0B, issued $19.0B of 6.25% mandatory conver…
In Q2 2026 revenue was $119,796M, up 24% (23% in constant currency) from $96,428M. Search and other was $63,271M (+17%), YouTube ads $11,055M (+13%),…
Q2 2026 operating income was $40,770M, a 34% margin: Google Services $39,544M (41.8%), Google Cloud $8,814M (35.6%, against 20.7% a year earlier), Ot…
Operating income for the twelve months to June 30, 2026 was $147,628M on revenue of $445,867M: $31,228M in Q3 2025, $35,934M in Q4 2025, $39,696M in…
Capital spending was $91.4B in 2025 and $80.6B in the first half of 2026, against $39.6B a year earlier; Q2 2026 alone was $44.9B. Free cash flow was…
In June 2026 Alphabet sold 58M new shares for $20.5B net, placed 28M more with Berkshire Hathaway for $10.0B, issued $19.0B of 6.25% mandatory conver…
Long-term debt was $98.2B at June 30, 2026. Alphabet issued $51.8B of senior notes in 2026, with weighted maturities of 8 to 31 years; the chief fina…
Alphabet bought back $62.2B of stock in 2024 and $45.7B in 2025, and none in the first half of 2026 against $28.3B a year earlier. Shares outstanding…
At June 30, 2026 Alphabet held $242.5B of cash and marketable securities, including $87.1B of listed equity, and $131.5B of non-marketable securities…
Analysts were 91.7% positive across 60 on October 1, 2026 against 88.4% of 69 in February; the average target drifted up 11.1%; short interest was 0.…
Alphabet had 190,820 employees at the end of 2025 and 198,933 at June 30, 2026; revenue per employee was about $2.11M in 2025 against $1.21M in 2015.
Generac's July-to-September sales rose 16% to a record $1.29 billion, about 2% under analysts' guesses, with profit per share 7% above. Orders waiting to be filled for data centres are about $4.5 billion. On the call, management said over half ships in 2027, nothing is booked yet for 2028 from its first big customer, and almost $600 million of recent orders came from other customers.
What it did to the thesisThis supports our case: orders are large and mostly due next year. The view stays Neutral because 2028 orders from other customers are not yet shown to reach $1 billion, and the price still needs next year's deliveries to land.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.54 | $2.43 | +$0.11 (+4.5%) |
| Sales | $1.29B | $1.32B | -$29.7M (-2.2%) |
In July 2026 management guided 2026 net sales up in the mid-to-high teens, Commercial and Industrial up in the low 30s and Residential up high single…
Adjusted EPS beat estimates by 45% in Q2 2026 and 35% in Q1 2026, after missing by 11% in Q4 2025 and 19% in Q3 2025.
At $224.94 on about 59.0M shares the equity is worth about $13.27B; adding $1.33B of debt and taking away $0.26B of cash gives a company value of abo…
Analysts' 2027 figures need sales up about a third to $6.52B, which only the data-centre backlog and the Amazon deliveries can supply, and adjusted E…
The Amazon agreement is probably the second hyperscale agreement management described in July: both cover 2027 and 2028 and the second was said to be…
The Amazon agreement is probably the second hyperscale agreement management described in July: both cover 2027 and 2028 and the second was said to be…
Management said in the Q3 2026 release that the backlog for products to be sold to the data-centre market has grown to about $4.5B, after the Amazon…
GE Vernova took $29.3B of orders, up 96% before acquisitions, and sales rose 27%. Turbines under contract reached 122 GW. Power kept 21.4 cents of profit per sales dollar. It raised its 2026 forecast and agreed to buy Trench Group for about $9.0B. On the call it said Q3's power margin is the base for 2027 and no buyer is delaying.
What it did to the thesisIt passed our three tests, and the call said no buyer is struggling to finance. But the plan the price pays for already assumed this, and the Trench purchase adds debt. The price is still about 20 times the 2028 plan, so the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $4.81 | $4.03 | +$0.78 (+19.4%) |
| Sales | $12.64B | $11.99B | +$649.3M (+5.4%) |
Remaining performance obligation was $176.28B at 30 June 2026: $87.82B of equipment, 36% of it due within a year and 65% within two, and $88.46B of s…
Gas turbine gigawatts under contract, orders plus slot reservations, rose from 62 at 30 September 2025 to 116 at 30 June 2026: 53 GW in backlog and 6…
At 30 June 2026 contract liabilities and deferred income were $40.04B, up from $25.95B at the start of the year, $27.69B of it in Power; cash was $13…
2026 free cash flow guidance was $5.0B to $5.5B in January, $6.5B to $7.5B in April and $11.5B to $12.5B in July; revenue guidance moved from $44B-$4…
The July guide implies second-half 2026 free cash flow of $1.6B to $2.6B against $9.9B in the first half, and a second-half adjusted EBITDA margin of…
At the 2026-09-25 close of $957.63, company value was about $244.8B: 59.5 times trailing adjusted EBITDA of $4.12B, 40.9 times the 2026 guide's midpo…
Management expects gas turbine output of 20 GW a year from Q3 2026, 24 GW in 2028 and 30 GW in 2030, at least 125 GW under contract by the end of 202…
Shares outstanding fell from 269.53M to 266.33M in the first half of 2026; 4.3M were bought for $3.6B at an average $854, and the $10B programme has…
Borrowings are $2.85B, mostly $2.6B of notes issued in February 2026 due 2031, 2036 and 2056 at 4.25% to 5.5%; a $3.0B revolver is undrawn, and S&P r…
Wind orders fell 40% organically in Q2 2026 and the segment is guided to lose about $400M in 2026 after losing $657M in the first half; the Vineyard…
Gas turbine gigawatts under contract, orders plus slot reservations, rose from 62 at 30 September 2025 to 116 at 30 June 2026 and 122 at 30 September…
Borrowings are $2.83B, mostly $2.6B of notes issued in February 2026 due 2031, 2036 and 2056 at 4.25% to 5.5%; a $3.0B revolver is undrawn, and S&P r…
Wind orders rose 16% organically in Q3 2026 to $2.14B and the segment earned a $72M profit, but it lost $585M in the first nine months and is guided…
In Q3 2026 Power earned a 21.4% segment EBITDA margin on $6.07B of revenue (13.4% a year earlier), with orders of $21.8B, up 178% organically; Electr…
Fortinet's September-quarter sales grew 20.5% to $2.08B; hardware rose 36.8% and subscriptions 12.7%. It raised its yearly guide to 20% growth. On the call it said price rises added about 10 percentage points to billings growth, its cushion of stockpiled parts is used up, and large deals start paying for services late.
What it did to the thesisThe call fits our case that part of the surge is price and one-time stock, not lasting demand, though management says demand shows no slowdown. Services growth still sits near 12.7%. Unattractive and Medium hold; December-quarter hardware growth above 30% would weaken our confidence.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.91 | $0.86 | +$0.05 (+5.8%) |
| Sales | $2.08B | $2.06B | +$14.8M (+0.7%) |
Fortinet's product revenue fell 1.0% in 2024 to $1,908.7M, rose 16.2% to $2,218.4M in 2025, and rose 46.5% to $1,418.1M in the first half of 2026.
Fortinet's service revenue grew 11.5% in Q1 2026 and 13.7% in Q2 2026, and the full-year guidance implies about 14.3% in the second half against 13.2…
FormFactor's September-quarter sales grew 38.4% to $280.5M. On the call it said tariff refunds added about 3 points to its 56.5% margin, so without them it was between 52.5% and 53%. It raised its lasting margin to about 53% from 51%, shipped its first chip-maker graphics probe cards, and guided the December quarter to $285M.
What it did to the thesisThis weakens our worry that the lasting margin is much lower than the headline. We hold Unattractive because the price still asks for more than the company's own 2030 plan, and a second quarter above 51% without refunds is still to come.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.04 | $0.86 | +$0.18 (+20.9%) |
| Sales | $280.55M | $270.52M | +$10.0M (+3.7%) |
Management says the recurring gross margin is about 51% at Q2 volumes and mix; the reported 53.3% included IEPA tariff refunds and precious-metal rec…
The third-quarter guide of 54% non-GAAP gross margin includes $7 million to $9 million of IEPA tariff refunds, about 300 basis points, which manageme…
GPU probe cards are today primarily the competitor's business; FormFactor became qualified and began shipping production units for revenue only in th…
Extreme's sales rose 10% to $341.1M, with equipment up 12.5%. Cloud subscription revenue grew 22%, up from 17.7%. After product costs it kept 62.6 cents per sales dollar, under the 63 we watched. On the call it said it expects cloud growth above 20% all year and has parts secured through 2027.
What it did to the thesisThis pressured our unattractive view, but did not move it. The cloud test was met and the forecast rose, yet management guided cloud growth above 20% rather than our 25% bar, the margin is under 63, and the price still needs profit to roughly double.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.33 | $0.28 | +$0.05 (+18.0%) |
| Sales | $341.09M | $336.75M | +$4.3M (+1.3%) |
Management guides fiscal 2027 revenue of $1,380M to $1,400M, up 7.5% to 9.1%, a non-GAAP operating margin of 16.7% to 17.1% and a GAAP operating marg…
In October 2025 the CFO said the company was 'guiding up to get to 63% by the end of the year'; non-GAAP gross margin was 62.1% for fiscal 2026 and 6…
SaaS annual recurring revenue was $244.3M at 30 June 2026, up 17.7% from $207.6M; maintenance support revenue, which it excludes, was $235.3M against…
Management says Extreme Platform ONE was 30% of subscription bookings in its first year and nearly half in the June quarter, beat a $40M bookings tar…
At 30 June 2026 Extreme held $211.8M of cash against a $165.0M term loan, $46.8M net cash. On 29 July 2026 it signed a five-year $500M revolving faci…
In October 2025 the CFO said the company was 'guiding up to get to 63% by the end of the year'; non-GAAP gross margin was 62.1% for fiscal 2026, 62.7…
Management says it raised prices twice, in November 2025 and March 2026, while 'many of our competitors have had more'; that 'we typically price unde…
SaaS annual recurring revenue was $264.7M at 30 September 2026, up 22% from the year before, and $244.3M at 30 June 2026, up 17.7% from $207.6M; main…
Constellium's July-to-September profit before interest, tax and depreciation was a record $280M against $196M, on 1% fewer tonnes. Free cash flow was $128M and it raised its 2026 profit forecast to $1.03B-$1.06B. On the call, management said the smaller fourth quarter reflects seasonality, a plant outage and a fading car-sheet shortage.
What it did to the thesisThis supported our case, but the call confirmed part of the gain was a shortage that is fading, and gave no number for the benefit of new projects. The view stays Neutral until the fourth quarter shows the profit is lasting.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.84 | $0.73 | +$0.11 (+15.1%) |
| Sales | $2.64B | $2.50B | +$141.3M (+5.7%) |
FY2026 guidance is $980M to $1,020M of Adjusted EBITDA excluding metal price lag, raised in July 2026 from the $780M to $820M given in February 2026.
That guidance implies $408M to $448M in H2 2026 against the $572M already earned in H1, a fall of 22% to 29% half on half.
Net debt was $1,760M at 30 June 2026 against $1,824M at 31 December 2025, and reported leverage fell from 2.5 times to 1.8 times.
Cohu's September-quarter sales rose 37% to $173.0M and orders rose 126%. It raised this year's computing estimate to about $120M and guided $178M next quarter. On the call it said $230M a year of computing sales is qualified, it will build three times as many handlers in 2027, and 2027 sales should grow 30% to 40%.
What it did to the thesisThis leans against our doubt: a bigger qualified pipeline and a computing line above $200M in 2027. But our routes also need more than eight qualified customers or a 15% profit margin, and neither is shown. The view stays Unattractive, medium conviction.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.43 | $0.35 | +$0.08 (+23.2%) |
| Sales | $172.96M | $170.25M | +$2.7M (+1.6%) |
Cohu now puts its annual computing opportunity pipeline at about $1.0 billion, up 18% from about $850M a quarter earlier, and says several hundred Ec…
Management plans to raise computing handler output about 50% by the end of 2026 and to more than double it by mid-2027, with a path to triple it by t…
Computing was 46% of Q2 2026 system orders, up 150% from a year earlier; industrial orders rose 87%, consumer 29%, mobile was flat and automotive fel…
Management estimated semiconductor test utilisation at about 80% at the end of Q2 2026, which it calls typically the turning point for its core custo…
Cohu guides Q3 2026 sales to about $170M, plus or minus $7M, at about 45% gross margin and $54M of operating expenses, full-year 2026 growth of about…
Management raised its FY2026 high-performance computing revenue estimate to $100M-$110M, from $80M-$100M a quarter earlier and $60M-$85M at the start…
Cohu puts its computing pipeline at about $850M of annual opportunity: $190M qualified across four customers, three processor and one memory, $250M i…
Management estimates semiconductor test utilisation at about 80% at the end of Q2 2026, which it calls typically the turning point for its core custo…
Amphenol sold a record $10.2 billion in the September quarter, up 65%, or 37% leaving out acquisitions. New orders were $12.2 billion, more than it shipped. Data-centre sales jumped 30% from the prior quarter. It forecast $10.3 to $10.5 billion next quarter, announced four purchases of smaller companies, and raised its dividend 20%.
What it did to the thesisThis supported our test: sales beat the forecast and orders exceeded sales. But the shares already cost about 27 times operating profit, a price that expects this, and data-centre growth is forecast to slow to a few percent next quarter. The view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.80 | $0.73 | +$0.07 (+9.6%) |
| Sales | $10.23B | $9.49B | +$738.9M (+7.8%) |
Management guides third-quarter 2026 sales to $9.3-9.4B, up 50-52%, and adjusted diluted EPS to $1.40-1.42 before the stock split (about $0.70-0.71 a…
Management says IT datacom was 43% of second-quarter 2026 sales, up 89% and 63% organically and 22% sequentially, with virtually all of that growth f…
Management now expects CommScope to deliver $4.6B of sales and $0.30 of adjusted EPS accretion before the split in 2026, up from $4.1B and $0.15, wit…
Analysts' consensus on the vendor's estimates is $2.68 a share for 2026 and $3.32 for 2027 after the split, and $0.722 a share and $9.44B of sales fo…
Xylem's September-quarter sales were flat leaving out acquisitions and currency, against the 3% growth it promised. Orders grew 10% and the margin rose to 23.9%. It cut its 2026 profit forecast to $5.40 to $5.45 a share and will sell two businesses. On the call, managers said utilities are delaying meter and plant projects, and data-centre orders tripled.
What it did to the thesisThis pressured our case: growth missed and the forecast was cut again. The call explained why, with utilities slowing spending and projects slipping rather than being lost, and gave no sign of lost customers. The view stays Neutral; growth must come back for a better one.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.44 | $1.45 | -$0.01 (-0.7%) |
| Sales | $2.20B | $2.28B | -$78.9M (-3.5%) |
In July 2026 Xylem cut 2026 organic growth guidance to 2% to 3% from 2% to 4%, blaming delayed electric meter projects, and now expects revenue of ab…
Growth has widened the margin: from 2021 to the trailing year gross profit rose from 38.0% to 39.2% of revenue and operating income from 11.3% to 14.…
For Q3 2026 Xylem guided revenue flat on a year and up about 3% organically, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.5% to 24% and adjusted earnings of $1.42…
Management says electric utilities slowed smart meter projects on affordability worries and caution before elections, while water meter orders grew b…
Teradyne's September-quarter sales were $1,306M, a little under June's $1,329M and above its own $1.2B to $1.3B guide. For the fourth quarter it guides $1,250M to $1,350M and a lower profit margin. On the call it said testing took 8.1% of chipmakers' equipment spending this year and a second cloud customer should buy in late 2027.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Our test was whether next quarter is guided above June's $1,329M; the $1,300M midpoint is not, and margins are guided down. The view stays Unattractive until a guide clears June or the late-2027 buys arrive earlier.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.29 | $2.09 | +$0.20 (+9.6%) |
| Sales | $1.31B | $1.27B | +$38.2M (+3.0%) |
Teradyne received its first order from a merchant GPU customer in Q1 2026 and delivered it in Q2 2026, and completed correlation with a second hypers…
Teradyne's chief executive says test equipment was near 4% of total semiconductor capital expenditure in 2023, about 7% by 2025, and 8% in the first…
Teradyne guided Q3 2026 revenue to $1,200 million to $1,300 million and non-GAAP earnings to $1.85 to $2.15 a share, against $1,329.0 million and $2.…
Taking the midpoints of that weighting and of the Q3 guide, the third quarter delivers about $1.25 billion and the fourth about $1.26 billion - neith…
Seagate's September-quarter sales rose 61% to $4,233M, above its $4.1B guide, and adjusted profit was $7.68 a share. On the call, analysts put the quarter's rise in price per terabyte at about 15%. Management said drives are booked through 2028, some customers to 2030, with prices fixed only through 2027. It guided $4.8B next quarter.
What it did to the thesisThe call answered half our question: prices are rising faster and drives are booked into 2028. But prices are fixed only through 2027, and nothing commits volumes and prices into 2029. The view stays Unattractive, since the price still assumes the shortage lasts.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $7.68 | $7.45 | +$0.23 (+3.1%) |
| Sales | $4.23B | $4.15B | +$83.8M (+2.0%) |
Management guides September 2026 quarter revenue of $4.1B plus or minus $0.1B, up about 56%, adjusted EPS of $7.30 plus or minus $0.20 on about 231M…
Management says that, under long-term supply agreements in place, the vast majority of nearline exabytes are allocated into calendar 2028, that order…
On the Q4 FY26 call an analyst said price per exabyte rose 10% from a year earlier in June and that the September guide implies about 20% or more; th…
Sensata's quarter beat its forecast: sales were $1,003.6 million and adjusted profit $1.13 a share, $0.97 without a $24.0 million payment from a customer cancelling an electric-vehicle programme. On the call management said it will not recur, cars beat the market by about 0.5% without it, and car sales are guided down about 3% next quarter.
What it did to the thesisCash and debt improved, as we hoped, and data-centre sales are on track for $48 million this year. But cars only just beat their market without the payment and fall next quarter, so the view stays Neutral until February.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.13 | $0.96 | +$0.17 (+17.8%) |
| Sales | $1.00B | $972.97M | +$30.6M (+3.1%) |
Management says Automotive outgrew production by 2% in Q2 2026: North American electric-vehicle revenue was flat while production fell more than 30%,…
Management says it won five hyperscaler platform specifications across four hyperscalers in 2026 to date, an OEM award for cooling-unit sensors shipp…
On the Q2 2026 call management said outside forecasters expect global auto production to fall about 2% in 2026, and an analyst put H2 2026 down 4% to…
Free cash flow for the four quarters to Q2 2026 was about $579.1M, with capital spending of $114.7M, 3.0% of $3,775.3M revenue. At 3.5% of revenue, l…
At the September 24 close of $41.06 on 145,535,862 shares, buyers pay $5.98B, about $10.30 for each $1 of trailing free cash flow, a 9.7% cash yield.…
At June 30, 2026 gross debt was $2,460.1M and cash $403.3M, net debt $2,056.8M, 2.4 times the company's $855.9M of trailing adjusted earnings before…
Management says Automotive outgrew production by 2% in Q2 2026: North American electric-vehicle revenue was flat while production fell more than 30%,…
Sensata guides Q3 2026 revenue of $957M to $987M against $932M a year earlier, adjusted operating income of $186M to $193M, GAAP operating income of…
SoFi's September-quarter sales grew 44% to a record $1.4 billion and profit was $241 million. It now expects about $5.04 billion of sales in 2026 and $6.4 billion in 2027. On the call it said 2027 needs no new capital and assumes two interest-rate rises. Its return on shareholders' money was about 10%.
What it did to the thesisThis supports our case, since growth beat the 35% we set and funding looks secure. The view stays Neutral: the return is about 10% and even the guided 2027 profit is only about 13% of net worth, short of the 15% our route to Attractive needs.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.18 | $0.16 | +$0.02 (+12.3%) |
| Sales | $1.37B | $1.25B | +$116.3M (+9.3%) |
Technology Platform-enabled accounts were down 16% year over year at 135 million as of Q2 2026, 'including the impact from a large client which fully…
In Q2 2026, SoFi's average rate paid on deposits was 156 basis points lower than on warehouse facilities, which management translates to approximatel…
FY2026 guidance (raised on the Q2 2026 call) is for adjusted net revenue of approximately $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion (32%-35% year-over-year grow…
The FY2026 guidance implies H2 2026 adjusted net revenue of about $2,457-$2,557 million, roughly 24%-29% above H2 2025's $1,986.7 million of GAAP net…
Annualizing Q2 2026 GAAP net income of $156.6 million against $9.5 billion of tangible book value implies a current run-rate return on tangible commo…
Management's stated long-term target is a total risk-based capital ratio in the low-to-mid teens, and it says it can operate within that range under…
Range earned $175 million, or $0.75 a share, as production rose 12% on a year ago. Bank debt fell to $294 million from $381 million in June. It filed its quarterly report confirming the all-share sale to EQT, which it expects to close in early 2027. We could not read the results release itself, so gas outlook and new contracts are unchecked.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Our test on the gas price curve and a second power contract could not be read, and the sale to EQT means Range's price now follows EQT's. The EQT deal is real, filed and unchanged from what we recorded yesterday.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.81 | $0.75 | +$0.06 (+8.0%) |
| Sales | $842.83M | $795.19M | +$47.6M (+6.0%) |
PayPal's September-quarter sales rose 2% to $8.6 billion and adjusted earnings rose 8% to $1.45 a share. The money left after payment costs, excluding interest, grew 3%. On the call it said checkout volume has grown 1% to 2% for four quarters, expects the same next quarter, and guided December's money-left growth to slightly positive.
What it did to the thesisCheckout stayed in the 1% to 2% range our case assumes, and Venmo and Braintree keep growing. But December is guided near flat, so the button has not recovered. The view stays Neutral until growth reaches the 5% our route to Attractive needs.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.45 | $1.31 | +$0.14 (+10.7%) |
| Sales | $8.58B | $8.71B | -$130.8M (-1.5%) |
Transaction margin dollars rose 1% to $3,900M in Q2 2026; excluding $281M of interest on customer balances they rose 3% to $3,619M.
Online branded checkout volume grew 2% currency-neutral in Q1 and Q2 2026, after 5% in Q3 2025 and 1% in Q4 2025; management guides about 2% for Q3.
Venmo revenue grew about 20% to $1.7B in 2025 excluding interest, Venmo volume grew 14% in Q2 2026 and Venmo debit card monthly actives rose more tha…
Robinhood's September-quarter revenue rose 12% to a record $1.42B, helped by event contracts at $173M, while crypto fell 55% to $120M. On the call management said customers moved into a lower-earning stablecoin product, October trading ran about 5% below the quarter and event contracts about 10% above, and October deposits topped $13B, $6B of it one gift.
What it did to the thesisBoth lines we set were cleared, and the call gave no reason to change either route. But growth slowed from 32% to 12% and Q4 starts lighter outside event contracts, so the view stays Neutral until February.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.60 | $0.56 | +$0.04 (+7.2%) |
| Sales | $1.42B | $1.44B | -$14.5M (-1.0%) |
Management targets net deposits of about 20% of assets a year and says the year to July was well above it.
Management says nearly 2M customers trade prediction markets and that Rothera, its exchange with Susquehanna, became a top-three US contract market w…
At June 30, 2026 Robinhood had 28.4M funded customers (up 7%), $369B of customer assets (up 32%) and 4.8M Gold subscribers (up 39%).
Margin loans to customers were $21.6B at June 30, 2026, up 127% in a year, and $21.5B at the end of August.
Management lowered its 2026 outlook for adjusted operating expenses and share pay to $2.675B-$2.775B.
Corning's September-quarter sales on its adjusted basis rose 19% to $5.08B, and its operating margin rose to 22.7% from 20.9%. Fibre sales grew 44% and data-centre network sales 84%. Solar lost $7M and customer deposits fell $70M. On the call, managers said Solar improves slowly through 2027, deposits are repaid as customers take fibre, and a $2B share-sale plan is only housekeeping.
What it did to the thesisThe business side got stronger: margin and fibre growth beat our lines, and the call added nothing alarming. But Solar still loses money and the price is still high against filed profit, so the view stays Unattractive. It would move if the price fell much further.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.91 | $0.88 | +$0.03 (+3.4%) |
| Sales | $5.08B | $5.03B | +$54.9M (+1.1%) |
Expand earned an adjusted $1.46 a share against $1.29 expected. It closed the Twin Eagle purchase and ended with $4.7 billion of net debt, up from $3.1 billion in June. It spent $305 million on buybacks and raised planned 2026 spending to about $3 billion. On the call, the new chief executive kept the strategy and management cut drilling from 12 rigs to 10.
What it did to the thesisMixed, so the view holds. Debt is under our $5 billion limit but above our estimate, and spending rose. The new chief executive backs the plan. Twin Eagle's earnings are still untested until a full quarter is reported.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.46 | $1.29 | +$0.17 (+13.2%) |
| Sales | $3.29B | $2.85B | +$440.1M (+15.5%) |
EQT's full quarterly report, filed a day after its results, shows debt of about $5.5 billion, little changed from June. It still gives mid-2028 as the start date for its new North Carolina pipeline and does not repeat the earlier hope of finishing by the end of 2026. Gas sales in the quarter were $1.51 billion, down from $1.68 billion a year earlier.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet, but the two things we need for a better view, falling debt and an earlier pipeline, did not show. We also have no export deal decision. The view stays Neutral; the next checks are the year-end results and the Range merger filing.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.42 | $0.37 | +$0.05 (+13.6%) |
| Sales | $1.77B | $1.76B | In line |
MVP Southgate (Series B of the MVP Joint Venture) extends MVP Mainline into North Carolina; EQT is committed to an additional 0.55 Bcf/day of firm ca…
EQT's net debt fell from $9.1 billion at 2024-12-31 to $7.7 billion at 2025-12-31 to $5.5 billion at 2026-06-30 ($9,122M, $7,690M and $5,543M in the…
EQT earned an adjusted $0.42 a share against $0.37 expected. It spent $638 million on drilling and equipment, 10% under its guide, and ended with net debt just under $5.5 billion. Free cash flow was $283 million, down from $484 million a year ago. It raised its dividend 3%. It cancelled its earnings call after announcing the Range deal.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Costs and debt are on track, but the release is silent on the two things our test asked about: whether the new pipeline stays on time and whether any LNG deal becomes final. The view waits on those.
Baker Hughes had sales of $8.0 billion, up 14% mostly from buying Chart, and adjusted profit of $0.70 a share against $0.61 expected. Equipment orders were $5.9 billion and the order book a record $39.4 billion, but the equipment margin slipped to 19.7% from 20.6%. On the call it raised its order goal to more than $50 billion and said most margin gains come in 2028.
What it did to the thesisMixed, so the view holds. Orders and Chart beat our marks, but the equipment margin fell under the 20% line we wrote down, and management put the margin gains further out. The price still asks too much for that.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.70 | $0.61 | +$0.09 (+14.8%) |
| Sales | $8.03B | $7.75B | +$279.7M (+3.6%) |
Baker Hughes will report its third quarter of 2026 after the close on October 27, 2026, with the webcast on October 28; it expects to complete the ro…
Celestica's September-quarter sales rose 83% to $5.83B and adjusted profit per share was $3.30, above its forecast. It set 2027 sales at $40.0B with plant spending of $1.5B to $2.0B and cut this year's free cash from $600M to $460M. On the call, managers called 2027 a year of investment, gave no free cash figure, and expect positive free cash in 2028.
What it did to the thesisGrowth and margin beat, but the cash question we set was answered with no figure, which counts against the case. The shares have fallen 28.8% since we priced them, so the view stays Unattractive with low conviction; a better 2027 quarterly margin would change it.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.30 | $3.02 | +$0.28 (+9.3%) |
| Sales | $5.75B | $5.39B | +$352.3M (+6.5%) |
Management guides 2026 revenue to $20.5B, up 65%, with adjusted earnings per share of $11.30, adjusted operating margin of 8.4% and free cash flow of…
Enterprise value is about $40.6B once the offering proceeds are netted, which is about 23.6 times the adjusted operating profit this year's own guida…
Buyers pay about $2.80 for each dollar of the last twelve months' sales, against a six-year median of about $0.35 for this company.
On enterprise value against operating profit Celestica is the dearest of the six-company group its own annual report names, and on enterprise value a…
Celestica's current buyback authority, accepted by the Toronto Stock Exchange on 29 October 2025, allows up to about 5.7 million shares until the ear…
The 2026 revenue outlook rose from $16.0B to $20.5B across three quarters while the free cash flow outlook rose from $500M to $600M.
Capital spending has run at 1.5% to 2.0% of annual revenue historically; the company puts 2026 at about $1B, roughly 6% of revenue, and has indicated…
The same adjusted earnings spread over the post-offering share count is about $10.41, 7.9% below the $11.30 the company has not restated.
Management expects the 2027 revenue growth rate to be faster than the 65% expected in 2026, and adjusted earnings to grow faster than revenue.
Agilysys's September-quarter sales rose 17.7% to a record $93.4M and subscriptions grew 32.6%. It raised its yearly subscription growth goal to at least 34%. On its call it said well over 2,000 Marriott hotels are live but none of hotels, rooms or revenue is near halfway, and it gave no Marriott revenue.
What it did to the thesisThis supports our case: subscription growth cleared the 28% line we set and the Marriott rollout is moving. The view stays Neutral: the shares have risen a lot, Marriott's size is still unsaid and the yearly growth is not yet filed.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.67 | $0.55 | +$0.12 (+21.8%) |
| Sales | $93.36M | $90.92M | +$2.4M (+2.7%) |
After the Q2 print, the raised guide of at least 34% subscription growth means fiscal 2027 subscription revenue of at least about $184M. With about $…
Management excludes the Marriott project from all reported sales and backlog. It says pilot properties went live across the US and Canada by January…
To reach 32% subscription growth, fiscal 2027 subscription revenue must reach about $181M, which needs about 34% growth over Q2 to Q4 after 26.1% in…
At 30 June 2026 remaining performance obligations on contracts longer than one year were $153.0M, 42% due within 12 months, 30% within 24 and 18% wit…
The vendor calendar the routine saved on 4 October 2026 dates Agilysys's next results, for the quarter to 30 September 2026, on 26 October 2026; last…
TTM sold $1.2 billion in the September quarter, up 60% and above its forecast. On the call it said its new AI boards were about 30% of data center sales, roughly $150M against the $200M planned, because one customer programme started later. It forecast $6.5 to $6.75 billion for 2027. Its debt was higher than planned.
What it did to the thesisThe beat is real but the new boards ran behind plan, and the two big customers' share only comes with the filing due about 6 November. Our earlier condition for a more positive view is not met, so the view stays Neutral until the filing and the December report.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.46 | $1.25 | +$0.21 (+16.8%) |
| Sales | $1.20B | $1.13B | +$73.4M (+6.5%) |
For the September 2026 quarter management guided net sales of $1.10B to $1.14B and non-GAAP EPS of $1.21 to $1.27, and raised 2026 to about $4.4B of…
The shares closed at $131.87 on 2 October 2026, about $13.89B on 105.35M shares, inside a 52-week range of $53.36 to $223.83; over 252 days they rose…
Company value before the deals is about $14.36B, 43.0 times trailing GAAP operating income of $334.2M on trailing sales of $3,377.1M, which grew abou…
That price needs about $956M of 2029 operating income, about $8.0B of sales at a 12% margin, or about 22% growth a year from 2026's $4.4B, above mana…
On its call Spotify repeated its fourth-quarter targets: 316 million paying subscribers, €5.2B of sales and €820M of operating profit. It said cost growth peaked this quarter and keeps slowing into 2027, but it is too early to give a 2027 outlook. Advertising grew 9% excluding currency, and Spotify has bought back $1.1B of its shares this year.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The call confirms the plan but our test is the full-year results in February, which will show whether profit reaches €820M and costs slow as promised. Ads grew 9%, not double digits as we had written, so we corrected that assumption. Neutral stays.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.81 | $3.18 | -$0.37 (-11.6%) |
| Sales | $5.63B | $5.64B | In line |
Ad-Supported revenue grew 10% in Q3 2026 to €482M, 9% at constant currency, after falling 5% in Q1 and growing 3% in Q2; music advertising pricing wa…
Spotify guides Q4 2026 to 818 million users, 316 million subscribers, €5.2B of revenue, a 33.8% gross margin and €820M of operating income.
Management planned about €200M of extra operating expense in 2026 for marketing and AI, concentrated in Q2 and Q3, and expects operating expense grow…
MaxLinear's September-quarter sales were $218.1 million, up 72% from a year earlier and just above the middle of its own forecast. It raised its 2026 optical forecast from $210-230 million to $250-270 million, made a 13.9% operating profit after stock pay, and spent heavily to pay chip makers ahead for 2027.
What it did to the thesisThe results passed the test we set. They did not change the price's problem: even after a 28% fall in the shares, it asks for about $1.8 billion of sales at a margin the company has never earned. The view stays Unattractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.62 | $0.56 | +$0.06 (+10.8%) |
| Sales | $218.06M | $214.95M | +$3.1M (+1.4%) |
Management has raised its 2026 optical data-centre revenue forecast three times: about $100M to $130M for Keystone in January, $150M to $170M in Apri…
No customer was 10% of Q2 2026 revenue; Customer A was 16% a year earlier and 11% of the first half of 2026. In 2025 two customers were 28% of revenu…
Management expects Rushmore, its 1.6T PAM4 DSP, to start producing revenue in 2027, with ramps at one or two customers in the second half; its Washin…
Rushmore's timing has moved: on the January call management expected its production revenue ramp to start at the end of 2026; on the July call it exp…
Third-quarter 2026 guidance is revenue of $210M to $220M, non-GAAP gross margin of 58.5% to 61.5%, GAAP operating expenses of $98M to $104M, non-GAAP…
Management's long-term targets are a 65% gross margin and a 30% to 35% operating margin, both on its non-GAAP basis; the finance chief said on the Ju…
At 30 June 2026 MaxLinear held $64.8M of cash plus $28.9M of restricted cash, owed $125.0M on a term loan due 23 June 2028, and had nothing drawn on…
There were 90,693,191 shares outstanding on 16 July 2026 and 97.3M diluted shares in Q2, against 73.1M diluted in 2020; the Q3 guide assumes about 99…
At $105.49 on 5 October 2026 the market value is about $9.57B on 90.69M shares; adding the $125.0M term loan and taking off $64.8M of cash gives an e…
For a 6% after-tax yield at 21% tax, the $9.63B enterprise value needs about $731M of GAAP operating profit. At a 30% operating margin that is about…
The next results are due on 22 October 2026, with the call at 1:30pm Pacific time.
Sales rose 54% to $3.77B, booked work hit $17.8B and customer prepayments reached $3.9B, with $341M spent on buybacks. On the call, management said next year's growth should be about 25%, margins dipped on more equipment in the mix, and some of the quarter's cash came from payment terms and a deferred tax bill.
What it did to the thesisThe print supported the case and the call sized the slowdown. Some cash was timing, so whether the customer prepayments reverse stays open. Nothing moved: the view stays Neutral, confidence stays Medium, and price remains what holds it back.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $13.91 | $12.85 | +$1.06 (+8.2%) |
| Sales | $3.77B | $3.40B | +$365.2M (+10.7%) |
Billings in excess of costs and estimated earnings and deferred revenue - cash customers have paid Comfort Systems for work not yet performed - stood…
Comfort Systems had more than 3.5 million square feet of building capacity dedicated to modular at June 30, 2026, expects more than 4 million square…
Comfort Systems' full-year 2026 guidance implies a sharp second-half deceleration. The chief financial officer said on the July call: 'Through 6 mont…
Comfort Systems stopped buying its own shares for the first half of 2026, then restarted in the third quarter. Share repurchases were $8,232 thousand…
Backlog at June 30, 2026 was $14.06 billion, against $12.45 billion at March 31, 2026 and $8.12 billion at June 30, 2025 - a year-over-year increase…
Revenue recognised from performance obligations partially satisfied in a previous period - upward revisions to earlier cost estimates - positively im…
Billings in excess of costs and estimated earnings and deferred revenue - cash customers have paid Comfort Systems for work not yet performed - stood…
Asked about competitive change on the modular side, Comfort Systems' chief financial officer said on the July 2026 call: 'There are a handful of othe…
Comfort Systems' full-year 2026 guidance implies a sharp second-half deceleration. The chief financial officer said on the July call: 'Through 6 mont…
Sell-side consensus on Comfort Systems is 5 buy, 4 hold and no sells - a Buy. The company has beaten consensus earnings per share in each of the last…
Comfort Systems' capital position and per-share record. Total debt was $54,064 thousand against cash and short-term investments of $1,854,794 thousan…
Comfort Systems has all but stopped buying its own shares while its cash pile has nearly doubled. Share repurchases were $8,232 thousand in the six m…
The June 2026 Form 10-Q splits growth by segment. Over the first six months Mechanical revenue rose $1.32 billion, or 43.3%, to $4.36 billion, $1.29…
Brian E. Lane has been chief executive since December 2011 (president from 2011 to December 2025, director since 2010, at the company since 2003); Wi…
Comfort Systems' September 2026 quarter results are dated October 22, 2026 in the saved earnings calendar.
Bloom reported third-quarter sales of $1.24 billion, up 138%, and an operating profit of $225 million, and raised its 2026 sales forecast to $4.4 to $4.6 billion. Two customers bought 69% of the quarter's sales. Cash from operations was minus $27 million. Its filing and call again said nothing about where its scandium comes from.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The results confirm the profit turn but not what we doubt: two customers still hold most of the sales, the scandium source is unexplained, and the lawsuit now has a lead plaintiff. Our view stays Unattractive, and a lower share price alone would not change it.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.94 | $0.69 | +$0.25 (+36.2%) |
| Sales | $1.24B | $1.07B | +$165.1M (+15.4%) |
With the Q2 2026 results Bloom raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $3.9 billion to $4.2 billion, which the company describes as representing 10…
For the six months ended June 30, 2026, revenue from one customer, which is NOT the related party, accounted for approximately 73% of Bloom's total r…
Bloom's order book is a company-defined measure, not a filed contractual obligation. Its own 10-K states: 'We view product backlog as the revenue att…
The word 'scandium' does not appear anywhere in Bloom's FY2025 10-K, a document of approximately 649,000 characters, nor in its Q2 2026 results relea…
A securities class action, Nevins v. Bloom Energy Corporation, No. 26-cv-07944 in the Northern District of California, has been filed against Bloom E…
Bloom's balance sheet at June 30, 2026 carried cash and cash equivalents of $2,666.9 million against $2,454.1 million at December 31, 2025; accounts…
Shares of common stock outstanding rose from 231,969,446 at March 31, 2025 to 233,661,168 at June 30, 2025 to 280,045,459 at December 31, 2025. Again…
Over the research pack's 365-day window the vendor's Form 4 roster records 55 open-market sales and zero open-market purchases. Since this thesis was…
On July 9, 2026, the day after the short report, Bloom filed an 8-K under Item 7.01 stating that it 'categorically rejects' the report's claims about…
Bloom's FY2025 10-K states it is expanding Fremont's annual production capacity run rate from 1 GW to 2 GW by the end of 2026, that the facility can…
AppFolio's sales rose 18.6% to $295.7M. The homes it serves grew 8% to 9.8 million, and fees on payments, tenant checks and insurance grew 20.7%. It raised the bottom of its yearly sales range to $1.122B but lowered the top of its profit-margin range to 27.5%. The call took no questions from analysts.
What it did to the thesisThe case holds. Revenue for each home still grew about 10% against 8% more homes, which is the core of our view. The outlook implies slower growth in the last quarter, about 15%, and the price already counts that. Neutral stays.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.82 | $1.79 | +$0.03 (+1.7%) |
| Sales | $295.69M | $294.46M | In line |
Value Added Services were $219.467M of AppFolio's $281.124M of Q2 2026 revenue - 78.1% - against $180.145M of $235.575M a year earlier. Subscription…
Units on the platform reached approximately 9.6 million at 30 June 2026, an 8% increase on 8.9 million a year earlier, and 9.4 million at 31 December…
Two thirds of AppFolio's growth is price, not land. Annualising Q2 2026 revenue over units gives $117 of revenue for each unit against $106 a year ea…
Cost of revenue excluding depreciation and amortisation was 36.3% of revenue in FY2025 against 35.5% in FY2024, so AppFolio kept 63.7 cents of each d…
AppFolio's management has not taken an analyst question on an earnings call in at least two years. Five consecutive calls read in full - Q2 2024, Q2…
Revenue growth has fallen every year since 2023: 31.5% in FY2023, 28.0% in FY2024, 19.7% in FY2025, and the raised fiscal 2026 guide puts the midpoin…
AppFolio has raised its fiscal 2026 outlook twice in two quarters. The January 2026 guide was $1,100M to $1,120M of revenue at a 25.5% to 27.5% non-G…
The margin story turned only this year. AppFolio's non-GAAP operating margin FELL in fiscal 2025, to 24.7% from 25.2%, and the GAAP operating margin…
Management's stated engine for revenue for each unit is tier upgrades plus attach. On the Q2 2026 call the chief executive said premium tier adoption…
The company's own guide has the deceleration in it. The July 2026 outlook's $1.122B midpoint against $543.338M delivered in the first half leaves abo…
Tesla sold $28.05B in the September quarter, about the same as a year ago, and kept 2.6 cents of operating profit on each dollar, up from 1.4 cents in June. It made $1.5B of free cash flow. On the call it put this year's spending near $20B and expects robotaxi revenue from mid-2027. Asked about self-driving software sales, it published no figure.
What it did to the thesisMixed, so the view stays Unattractive. The margin is better, but the price depends on self-driving revenue Tesla does not report, and rising spending raises what the business must earn. The next check is the December-quarter report around 27 January.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.48 | $0.46 | +$0.02 (+4.4%) |
| Sales | $28.05B | $28.06B | In line |
NVE sold $5.83M in the September quarter, down 47% from June's $11.03M and 8% below a year earlier, while keeping about 78 cents of gross profit per dollar. On its call it said some orders arrived in June instead of September, and it expects about $8.4M a quarter in the second half as medical and defense sales recover.
What it did to the thesisThe June jump did not repeat, the main risk we named. The call fits a pause, not a new higher level: $8.4M a quarter is inside our range, not June's $11M. The view moved from Neutral to Unattractive, because the price still assumes the jump comes back.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.65 | — | — |
| Sales | $5.83M | — | — |
The June quarter's jump did not repeat: September-quarter revenue was $5.83M, 47% below June's. The 10-Q blames one customer's rescheduled orders, a…
At 30 June 2026 NVE held $43.9M of cash and marketable securities, mostly high-grade bonds, against total liabilities of $2.34M and no debt.
The shares closed at $116.53 on 6 October 2026, up 70.3% in a year: sales per share rose 23.9% and the price paid per sales dollar 37.4%. The 52-week…
At $116.53 the shares are worth about $564M, about $520M net of cash and securities. That is 31.3 times trailing earnings against a six-year median o…
Q1 fiscal 2027 mixes a defense rebound that management calls volatile with new-product growth, and no filing splits them, so how much of the $4.9M ri…
NextEra earned $1.24 a share excluding one-off items, up 9.7%, and kept its yearly forecast. On the call, analysts pressed on testimony Virginia's governor and the state regulator's staff filed on 19 October saying the Dominion deal should not go ahead as filed. Management said it will answer in about two weeks and sees room to compromise.
What it did to the thesisThe profit supported the steady part of the case. The Virginia testimony is the kind of pressure our next test was written to catch, but the judges have not ruled and need not follow it, so the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.24 | $1.20 | +$0.04 (+3.3%) |
| Sales | $8.09B | $8.47B | -$382.8M (-4.5%) |
Closing requires HSR Act clearance and regulatory clearances from FERC, the NRC, the Virginia SCC, the North Carolina Utilities Commission and the So…
NextEra's standalone 2026 guidance is adjusted EPS of $3.92-4.02 (targeting the high end), with a compound annual growth rate in adjusted EPS of 8%+…
Q2 2026 GAAP net income attributable to NextEra was $3.144B ($1.50/sh, assuming dilution) versus $2.028B ($0.98/sh) in Q2 2025; adjusted earnings wer…
NextEra Energy announced it executed definitive agreements with the US Department of Commerce and the Government of Japan to fund the development and…
Closing requires HSR Act clearance and regulatory clearances from FERC, the NRC, the Virginia SCC, the North Carolina Utilities Commission and the So…
FPL has approximately 21 GW of large-load interest, of which it is in advanced discussions on 12 GW, a portion of which it believes it could begin se…
NextEra Energy announced it executed definitive agreements with the US Department of Commerce and the Government of Japan to fund the development and…
Meta's sales rose 26% to $64.6B, above its own forecast. Profit fell 37% on a $9.89B charge for a deal with 52 state attorneys general, and free cash flow was negative $2.12B after building data centres. A New Mexico court ordered it to pay $25B, which it will appeal. Its filing shows $121.4B of purchase commitments due in 2027 that cannot be cancelled.
What it did to the thesisThe advertising engine passed its test, but cash flow turned negative, legal costs stepped up and next year's spending is largely set. Confidence moved from Medium to Low because the cushion is thinner; the view stays Attractive, and funding is the item to watch.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $7.40 | $6.54 | +$0.86 (+13.1%) |
| Sales | $64.60B | $63.34B | +$1.26B (+2.0%) |
Meta guides 2026 capital expenditures including principal payments on finance leases to $130-145 billion, narrowed from a prior $125-145 billion, aga…
Meta's June 2026 quarter release warns that 'we continue to see scrutiny on youth-related issues in several markets and have a number of youth-relate…
Meta's board approved on 19 October 2026 a new class of non-voting Class C common stock, effective 19 January 2027, with a one-for-one stock dividend…
Family daily active people were 3.60 billion on average for June 2026, an increase of 3% year over year. A year earlier, for December 2025, the same…
For the quarter ended June 30, 2026 Meta reported revenue of $60,801 million, up 28% year over year and 27% in constant currency; total costs and exp…
In the June 2026 quarter Family of Apps advertising revenue was $59.4 billion, up 27% year over year and 26% in constant currency. Ad impressions del…
Capital expenditures including principal payments on finance leases were $31.08 billion in the June 2026 quarter alone, against $22.14 billion in the…
Meta guides 2026 capital expenditures including principal payments on finance leases to $130-145 billion, narrowed from a prior $125-145 billion, aga…
Meta has attached no disclosed revenue to the capital spending. The chief executive stated that 'we have quite a number of offers at a meaningful pre…
Meta held $90.26 billion of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities against $83.66 billion of debt at June 30, 2026 - net cash of roughly $6…
Meta's June 2026 quarter release warns that 'we continue to see scrutiny on youth-related issues in several markets and have a number of youth-relate…
At April 1, 2026 Mark Zuckerberg beneficially owned 639,347 Class A and 341,823,978 Class B shares, about 13.5% of the 2,538,423,304 shares outstandi…
Medpace sold $716.0M in the September quarter, up 8.5%, and signed $873.4M of new work, about 1.2 times sales. Its backlog grew 5.6% to $3.17B and it raised its profit forecast. On the call it said cancellations were toward the high end of normal, mostly failed drugs, and that analysts' 2027 estimates near 6% growth look about right.
What it did to the thesisIt passed the test we set, orders above sales and backlog up at least 5%, and the call shows cancellations contained, not gone. Backlog still grows slower than sales and 2027 sits near our 5% line, so the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $4.84 | $4.44 | +$0.40 (+9.0%) |
| Sales | $716.00M | $714.47M | In line |
Medpace's top ten customers were 35.1% of 2025 revenue with none at 10%, and its top five and top ten were about 31% and 40% of revenue in the year t…
In Q2 2026 net awards grew 28.2% to $795.7M, a book-to-bill of 1.13 and a record for net bookings, with backlog at $3,014.2M, up 4.9% on a year earli…
In July 2026 Medpace raised its 2026 guide to revenue of $2.805B to $2.885B, 10.9% to 14.0% growth, net income of $494M to $514M and diluted EPS of $…
The raised guide implies second-half 2026 revenue of $1,391M to $1,471M, growth of only 1.7% to 7.5% on the second half of 2025, after 21.7% in the f…
At June 30, 2026 Medpace held $502.7M of cash, had no debt and an undrawn $10M revolver, and carried $904.7M of advance billings from customers.
Hexcel sold $496M in the September quarter, up 8.8%: aircraft sales rose 21% and defence and space fell 9%. Profit margin slipped to 11.0% from 12.8% for the first nine months, which the call blamed on slow summer months and hiring 525 people. It expects to supply about 100 Airbus A350 planes in 2027, up 25%, and kept its yearly forecast.
What it did to the thesisThe dip is the pressure we had marked on the bull case, and the call explains it without proving it. The A350 path strengthens sales, but the price still assumes the full recovery, so the view stays Unattractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.50 | $0.49 | +$0.01 (+2.0%) |
| Sales | $496.40M | $501.95M | -$5.5M (-1.1%) |
Management says it now has firm purchase orders from Airbus through the end of 2026 confirming at least 80 A350 shipsets, with possible upside, again…
Management says Salt Lake City has 14 carbon fibre lines of which four were idled in the pandemic, two have been restarted, a third is being brought…
Net debt is about 2.3 times trailing adjusted cash profit, above the company's own 1.5 to 2.0 target - which is why buybacks are paused and cash is g…
Hexcel raised its 2026 guidance on 29 July 2026 to sales of $2.025B to $2.125B and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.30 to $2.40, from $2.0B…
Hexcel's own raised guidance implies second-half 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.05 to $1.15 against $1.25 delivered in the first half - a dec…
Management says the incremental operating margin on extra sales was 49% in Q2 2026 and about 37% for 2026 at the guidance midpoint, up from the low 3…
Hexcel's total debt was $959.4M at 30 June 2026 against $993.0M at 31 December 2025, and cash was $62.2M - net debt of $897.2M.
Element Solutions sold $995M in the third quarter. Without acquisitions and metal price swings, sales grew 13%, Electronics 18%, and it raised its full-year profit forecast to about $720M. On the call it said growth came mainly from selling more product rather than higher metal prices, but gave no percentage. Two big technology customers approved its new copper product.
What it did to the thesisIt passed the test we set on growth, margin and profit, so the growth part of the case is stronger. The call did not give the share of growth that is real volume, the number we wait for. The view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.50 | $0.48 | +$0.02 (+4.2%) |
| Sales | $995.30M | $964.23M | +$31.1M (+3.2%) |
The company raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $690-710 million from the $650-670 million introduced in February, and guides to approx…
Valmont's September-quarter sales rose 5.5% to $1.10B and earnings per share of $6.24 beat forecasts by 9.5%. Utility sales rose 23.0% with an infrastructure margin of 17.6%, and it raised its 2026 forecast to $22.75 to $23.75 a share. On the call it said most utility growth was volume, but rising steel costs will squeeze fourth-quarter margins.
What it did to the thesisUtility growth and margin cleared our lines, and the call answered our open question in our favour: growth was mostly volume. The view stays Neutral because price is mostly cost pass-through, fourth-quarter margins will be pressured and rival plants are due in 2027.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $6.24 | $5.70 | +$0.54 (+9.5%) |
| Sales | $1.10B | $1.12B | -$15.0M (-1.3%) |
Management said North America Utility sales rose 33.9% in Q2 2026 'driven by higher pricing and volume growth', and the chief financial officer descr…
Management says Valmont's growth rate is set by its own capacity rather than by demand: 'right now, it is capacity constrained, and it is a system ca…
On 2026-07-21 Valmont raised full-year 2026 guidance to net sales of $4.3B-$4.45B, Infrastructure of $3.4B-$3.5B, Agriculture unchanged at $0.9B-$0.9…
On the Q2 2026 call the chief financial officer said 'Steel is up 27 to 30% year to date. Diesel's up 45% year to date depending on what you look at'…
Valmont's capital expenditure guidance of $170M-$200M for 2026 was left unchanged when the sales and earnings guidance was raised, against about $145…
Management said North America Utility sales rose 33.9% in Q2 2026 'driven by higher pricing and volume growth', and the chief financial officer descr…
Backlog was $1,653.7M at 2025-12-27 - Infrastructure $1,548.3M and Agriculture $105.4M - against $1,436.7M a year earlier, and the majority was expec…
SpaceX's filing for the third quarter shows no customer ended or cut a computing contract. One customer made 34.5% of sales, and orders waiting to be filled were $63B, two-thirds due within a year. Net income of $4.4B included a $561M gain from marking up its Boring Company stake, which is not business profit.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The filing meets the first part of our test: no notice, and the AI unit still earned a profit before the gain. But the same contracts can be ended on 90 days' notice, and one customer's size makes that risk bigger. The view stays Unattractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.35 | $0.13 | +$0.22 (+164.3%) |
| Sales | $14.57B | $12.87B | +$1.71B (+13.3%) |
Starlink subscribers grew from 2.3 million at end-2023 to 4.4M, 8.9M and 12.0M at June 2026, while revenue per subscriber fell from $99 a month in 20…
SpaceX's installed AI computing drew 1.4 gigawatts at June 2026, up from 0.4 a year earlier and 1.0 in March.
SpaceX said third-quarter sales rose 161% to $14.6 billion, and its AI business earned $0.4 billion at the operating line. It spent $19.6 billion on equipment. On the call it said it expects to spend $35B to $40B next quarter and $33B to $37B of sales in early 2027, with $63B of orders waiting. Merger talks with Tesla are exploratory.
What it did to the thesisThe first two parts of our test were met and more expected sales support growth, but doubling the spending adds to the cash it needs, and the AI profit rests on customers who can leave on 90 days' notice. The view stays Unattractive.
Management expects revenue at a $100B yearly pace by December 2026, calls that what it would reach 'if we basically did nothing', and now targets $1T…
The CFO expects capital spending in each of the next two quarters to be similar to Q2 2026's $18.4B, and Musk targets 15 to 20 gigawatts of data-cent…
Netflix's sales rose 11.8% to $12.87B and it kept 34.6 cents of each dollar as operating profit. It cut its 2026 advertising target to about $2.7B from about $3B and its free-cash-flow target to $12.0B. On the call it said advertising still grows over 80% this year but new ad products rolled out late. Cash added to shows rose 10.9%.
What it did to the thesisThe test split: sales and margin met our bar, but show spending grew faster than we hoped and two targets were cut. The call explains the advertising cut but not whether content spending falls this quarter, as our case needs. The view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.87 | $0.82 | +$0.05 (+6.1%) |
| Sales | $12.87B | $12.87B | In line |
Management's 2026 guide of about 1.1 times cash content spend to amortisation, with amortisation up about 10%, implies second-half cash content spend…
Netflix guides 2026 revenue of $51.0B-$51.4B, up 13%-14%, at a 31.5% operating margin including about $275M of acquisition-related expenses, with fre…
Management guides 2026 content amortisation up about 10% and a cash content spend to amortisation ratio of about 1.1 times, and told investors in Jan…
Intuitive's revenue grew 22% to $3.05B and adjusted profit per share was $3.00 against $2.65 expected. It agreed to pay $450M to settle the hospitals' lawsuit, pending court approval. On the call it said the instrument price cut will be 3% to 5% by the end of 2027. American operations grew 10%, worldwide 14%.
What it did to the thesisThe cut is smaller than the 5 points we assumed, but American growth fell below our 11% line, so the test read against us. The settlement ends the 2027 trial risk. Worldwide growth still covers the cut, so the case is mixed and the view is unchanged.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.00 | $2.65 | +$0.35 (+13.2%) |
| Sales | $3.05B | $2.91B | +$141.8M (+4.9%) |
da Vinci instrument and accessory revenue for each procedure was approximately $1,830 in Q2 2026, against approximately $1,800 a year earlier.
On 30 July 2024 the court vacated those market-definition findings on Intuitive's motion for reconsideration, and on 31 March 2025 it certified the p…
Intuitive expects full-year 2026 da Vinci procedure growth within a range of 13.5% to 15.5%, closer to the midpoint, and total procedures grew 16% in…
Intuitive has not quantified the revenue effect of the extended use programme and said on 16 July 2026 that it would do so on its next earnings call.
A 5-percentage-point cut to trailing instrument and accessory revenue of $6.60B is $330M, which is 9.6% of trailing operating profit of $3.45B and wo…
Procedure growth of 5.3% offsets a 5-percentage-point cut to instrument revenue for each procedure; da Vinci procedures grew 15% in Q2 2026.
US da Vinci procedure growth was 12% in Q2 2026 against 14% in Q1 2026, and US bariatric cases declined at a high single-digit rate on rising use of…
On 30 July 2024 the court vacated those market-definition findings on Intuitive's motion for reconsideration; on 31 March 2025 it certified the plain…
In the third quarter of 2026 sales rose 15% to $1.60B. Magic passed $600M in a quarter for the first time, up 34%, and Wizards kept 49 cents of each sales dollar as operating profit. Toys grew 4%, helped by $48M of refunds of tariffs the courts struck down.
Management raised its 2026 forecast for the second time this year. It also said about $40M of Magic sales arrived early, so the fourth quarter should be slightly down, and Wizards should grow only in single digits in 2027, about 5% to 9%.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed Magic's record level and the toys' recovery, but did not settle the question the view rests on: management itself expects Magic's growth to slow sharply, so whether this is a plateau or a peak is left to 2027.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.90 | $1.86 | +$1.04 (+55.9%) |
| Sales | $1.60B | $1.48B | +$119.4M (+8.1%) |
GE Aerospace's sales rose 18% in the September quarter and operating profit 30%, and it raised its 2026 forecast on every line again. Free cash flow fell 14%. On the call GE said customers, including Boeing and airlines, owed it more, and that delayed spare-parts shipments rose again. It expects $3.5B to $4B more services sales in 2027.
What it did to the thesisSales and margin beat our marks. The call gives a reason for the cash fall our test flagged, but rising late parts is one of our warning signs. Nothing in the case changed and the view stays Neutral, as the price still pays for a recovery to 2028.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.25 | $2.01 | +$0.24 (+11.9%) |
| Sales | $14.12B | $12.88B | +$1.24B (+9.6%) |
Spare-parts delinquencies - shipments delayed by material availability - grew 20% sequentially in Q2 2026, GE's internal shop capacity is 40% oversub…
GE Aerospace's remaining performance obligation was $210.79B at 30 June 2026, of which services $178.71B and equipment $32.09B, up $20.2B or 11% from…
GE raised its full-year 2026 guidance on 16 July 2026 to adjusted earnings per share of $7.65-$7.85, operating profit of $10.55B-$10.75B and free cas…
GE's raised full-year 2026 guidance implies adjusted revenue growth of roughly 9% to 12% in the second half against 27% in the first, and free cash f…
The quarter to September 2026 was ASML's biggest yet. Sales rose 55% from a year earlier to €11.7B and it kept 57.5 cents of gross profit on each euro, a record, as customers bought EUV machines and paid for upgrades. ASML raised its sales forecast for 2026 for the third time.
Management added that its planned output in 2027 and 2028 will still not meet demand. Profit also included a one-off gain on its stake in Mistral AI.
What it did to the thesisIt proved demand runs well ahead of supply and that ASML can raise prices, which supports the business case. It did nothing to the price question the view hinges on, and left open how much of the boom lasts beyond 2028.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $14.89 | $12.47 | +$2.42 (+19.4%) |
| Sales | $12.97B | $13.14B | -$174.9M (-1.3%) |
In the third quarter of 2026 revenue was $18.68B, 23% more than a year earlier, though 8% below the second quarter. Share trading and lending to hedge funds drove it: equities revenue rose 72%. Mergers advice had its best quarter ever. Bond trading was flat, and the Apple Card exit cost money again.
Two things cooled. The backlog of deals fell, and the capital ratio slipped to 12.4% from 12.9% as the bank lent more.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the growth in lending to hedge funds and in fees the case rests on, but showed the cycle turning: revenue fell from the quarter before, the deal backlog shrank and the capital cushion narrowed. It left open whether returns hold in a weaker year.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $17.01 | $12.86 | +$4.15 (+32.3%) |
| Sales | $18.68B | $16.83B | +$1.85B (+11.0%) |
For the three months to 31 August, Applied Digital's sales were $341.9M. Rent rose to $65.8M from $44.1M, but $183.5M was construction work for tenants, and rent kept 89% after running costs. On the call management said it expects about 250 MW of new leases by year-end at rents over 15% higher. The filings show none signed.
What it did to the thesisRent grew but construction still leads and the margin was 89%, below the 91% we set, so the test neither passed nor failed. The call is a plan, not evidence. The Neutral view stands, and the January results are the next test.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.01 | -$0.30 | +$0.29 (+98.2%) |
| Sales | $341.90M | $116.29M | +$225.6M (+194.0%) |
At $26.25 the common is worth about 12.3 times stabilised net operating income - an 8.2% capitalisation rate on contracted, non-cancellable, mostly i…
One turn of the stabilised NOI multiple is worth about $7.27 a share - roughly 28% of the current price.
The shares are 48.3% below their 52-week high; over the last 126 sessions the price rose 2.1% while revenue per share rose 98.6% and what buyers pay…
At 31 May 2026 approximately 100 MW was operating and revenue-generating, out of roughly 1.5 GW contracted and under construction.
Q4 fiscal 2026 brought sales of $566.7M, up 68% on a year earlier. Memory did the work: up 158%, while clusters grew 11%. Reported earnings flattered the quarter with a one-off tax benefit.
Underneath, the company spent cash to grow: $163.1M went out in the quarter as stock and money owed by customers swelled. Management guided fiscal 2027 sales up about 40%, to $2.43B.
What it did to the thesisIt showed memory is earning more than anyone guided, and that the cluster business grew again with new buyers. It left open whether clusters earn a margin on them, and the cash drain showed the cost of buying memory at peak prices. The view stays unattractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.00 | $0.77 | +$0.23 (+29.8%) |
| Sales | $566.68M | $520.99M | +$45.7M (+8.8%) |
FQ4 2026, the three months to 3 September, was another record. Sales rose 30.8% on the quarter to $54.2B, mainly because prices rose again, and Micron kept 86.8 cents of each sales dollar after production costs.
Management expects about $61.5B of sales in FQ1 2027 and higher sales every quarter of the year. The profit margin dips slightly in FQ1 because of bonuses paid on last year's record, which management says is the low point.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the core of the case: prices are still rising and Micron keeps almost all of each extra dollar. It did not settle the open question, which is how long memory prices stay this high, and the share price already assumes they will.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $33.42 | $31.77 | +$1.65 (+5.2%) |
| Sales | $54.23B | $51.33B | +$2.89B (+5.6%) |
Jabil, which builds electronics and AI data-centre equipment for other companies, sold $36.0B in its year, up 21%, and forecast $17.55 of profit per share for next year with a 6.1% margin. On the call it said AI-related sales were about $14.4B, up 60%, and should reach about $22.1B next year. The shares have since drifted down to $277.18.
What it did to the thesisAI growth is well above the 40% we asked for and the shares have fallen to the price we said would make us reconsider, so we recommend moving from Neutral to Attractive. The 6.1% margin missed our 6.2% bar and one customer is 16% of sales, so conviction stays Medium.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $4.40 | $4.07 | +$0.33 (+8.1%) |
| Sales | $10.62B | $9.71B | +$903.4M (+9.3%) |
Jabil reported fiscal 2026 core operating margin of 5.8% (6.4% in Q4) and guides fiscal 2027 to 6.1%, up 30 basis points, against the '6%+' it had sa…
Management says AI-related revenue was about $5B in fiscal 2024 and $9B in fiscal 2025, expects about $13.6B in fiscal 2026, roughly 50% growth, and…
The AI-related revenue total appears in no filing: the 10-Q reports segments and end-market growth contributions, and the Q3 release says only that t…
At $286.86 the shares trade at 29.4 times filed fiscal 2026 diluted earnings of $9.75 against a six-year median of 15.9, and 21.9 times fiscal 2026 c…
At the company's six-year median of 15.9 times earnings, $286.86 needs about $18.04 of earnings per share, 38% above the $13.09 reported for fiscal 2…
Before the print the analyst consensus on the vendor's panel expected $16.84 a share of core profit for fiscal 2027 (six analysts) and $20.69 for fis…
Jabil raised its fiscal 2026 outlook three times after issuing it: revenue from $31.3B to $32.4B, $34B and then $35B, and core earnings per share fro…
Management guides a 5.8% core operating margin for fiscal 2026 and about 6.4% at the midpoint of the Q4 fiscal 2026 guide, and says fiscal 2027 will…
Adjusted free cash flow was $1,318M in fiscal 2025 and $991M in the first nine months of fiscal 2026.
At $316.74 the shares trade at 39.1 times trailing filed earnings against a six-year median of 15.9, and 16.8 times trailing operating profit before…
At the company's six-year median of 15.9 times earnings, $316.74 needs about $19.93 of earnings per share, 57% above the $12.70 guided for fiscal 202…
The analyst consensus on the vendor's panel expects $16.84 a share of core profit for fiscal 2027 (six analysts) and $20.69 for fiscal 2028 (two anal…
The market has sold good results twice in a year: on 2026-06-17, after a beat and a raised outlook, the shares opened at $412.36, touched $428.93 and…
NioCorp filed its annual report and the signed engineering report behind its mine plan. The numbers match the August announcement. The scandium price comes from an outside forecaster, which raised its price for NioCorp from about $1,967 a kilogram to $3,250 in ten months. The report is a less advanced study than announced, and no scandium buyer or construction loan is signed.
What it did to the thesisThe question we set in advance was answered in the company's favour: the numbers are real and have a named source. But a forecast raised that fast, with no buyer signed, is still a bet. Our neutral view held; the next test is whether anything becomes binding.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.02 | -$0.04 | +$0.02 |
| Sales | — | — | — |
NioCorp earns no operating revenue; its only business is developing the Elk Creek project in southeastern Nebraska, and it will need more capital to…
NioCorp had seven full-time employees and one contract employee at 30 June 2025, and retains outside consultants for specialised work.
The 2026 feasibility study announced on 10 August 2026 puts the project's value at $4.11B before tax and $3.44B after tax at an 8% discount, on $1.85…
The study assumes a realised scandium trioxide price of $1,563 a pound, which is $3,446 a kilogram.
The memorandum signed with Lockheed Martin on 4 August 2026 contemplates buying up to 15 tonnes a year of scandium oxide or aluminium-scandium alloy…
Cash and cash equivalents were $419.2M at 31 March 2026 with working capital of $409.9M, against total liabilities of $34.6M - mostly warrant and ear…
Construction in progress on the balance sheet was $1.8M at 31 March 2026 against nil at 30 June 2025, and total property and equipment before depreci…
NioCorp applied to the Export-Import Bank on 6 June 2023 for up to $800M of debt, passed the first of three transaction review committee reviews in O…
Management expects to fund the $1.85B of upfront capital through a mix of debt and equity with approximately two-thirds from debt, and says that apar…
At $3.54 the whole company is worth about $515.4M; less $419.2M of cash that leaves about $96.2M of enterprise value against $2.77B of the study's af…
NioCorp owned 80.42% of Elk Creek Resources Corp at 30 June 2025; the rest is Class B shares - 3,934,031 vested and 3,391,596 earnout - exchangeable…
If two-thirds of the $1.85B came from debt, the remaining $616M of equity is $197M more than the cash on hand, and funding that whole equity third at…
The only product sales agreements the annual report lists are two ferroniobium offtakes - one with CMC Cometals dated 2016 and assigned to Traxys Nor…
The company's EDGAR filing history carries nothing after 29 July 2026, so neither the 2026 feasibility study nor the Lockheed memorandum has been fil…
The Department of War awarded about $10.0M under Title III of the Defense Production Act to Elk Creek Resources in August 2025, payable as milestone…
The 2026 study rests on 45.9 million tons of proven and probable reserves grading 0.76% niobium pentoxide as of 2 April 2026, and the company has not…
The 2022 feasibility study assumed a four-year pre-production period and commercial production in 2025; at 31 March 2026 construction had not started…
The quarter to August 2026 beat the top of the company's own profit forecast. Billings rose 40.0% to $31.8B; Hyve's more than doubled.
The shares still fell 9.9% on the day, because free cash flow was negative $975.6M. Inventory has risen $5.79B, or 60.9%, since November, to $15.29B, and net debt more than doubled to $4.77B. Management says most of Hyve's build is now in place and cash returns next quarter; no filing shows Hyve's own balance sheet to check.
What it did to the thesisIt strengthened the demand side, since Hyve's sales more than doubled, but it deepened the doubt the view rests on: the growth is eating cash, raising debt and piling up inventory. Whether that cash comes back is still unproven, so the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $5.68 | $4.70 | +$0.98 (+20.9%) |
| Sales | $21.56B | $18.91B | +$2.65B (+14.0%) |
In the quarter to August 2026 Lennar delivered 20,840 homes, 3% fewer than a year earlier, and took 9% fewer orders. To keep homes selling it gave buyers about 12% of the price in incentives, so the margin on a home fell to 15.8% from 17.5%, just short of the 16% it had promised in June.
It also cut its target for the year a second time, to 80,000 to 81,000 homes, from about 85,000 in December. For the quarter to November it expects a margin of 15.5% to 16% on 22,000 to 23,000 homes.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the thesis's central worry: Lennar is holding volume by giving up margin, and higher mortgage rates pushed the recovery further out. It proved the building-cost savings are real but showed they are not enough to offset land costs and discounts.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.23 | $1.28 | -$0.05 (-3.9%) |
| Sales | $8.00B | $8.32B | -$318.9M (-3.8%) |
Sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 rose 94% to $461.7M, led by whole power systems, up 187%. New orders reached $1.50B, 3.3 times the quarter's sales, lifting the backlog to $3.0B from $850M a year earlier.
The company guided fiscal 2027 sales of $2.4B to $2.6B. It also said it will stop reporting orders each quarter and give a forecast for the next quarter instead.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the demand: firm orders now cover almost all of next year's plan. It also moved the question the thesis turns on, whether orders continue after next year, out of quarterly view, so the evidence for the years beyond will arrive only once a year.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.25 | $0.24 | +$0.01 (+4.2%) |
| Sales | $461.67M | $429.94M | +$31.7M (+7.4%) |
In Q1 FY2027, the three months to August 2026, revenue rose 30% to $19.35B. Cloud infrastructure, the rented computing, more than doubled to $7.39B, while the old software licences and support slipped 3%. Adjusted earnings rose to $1.92 a share, and management lifted its target for the year to at least $90B of revenue.
The margin on cloud and software fell to 55% from 60%, because rented computing earns less than software, and cash went the other way: spending on data centres of $28.5B left free cash flow at minus $5.4B for the quarter.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the backlog is turning into revenue on schedule and raised the year's target. It also showed the cost: margins slipping as rented computing grows, and cash still flowing out, so the question of who pays for the build stayed open.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.92 | $1.74 | +$0.18 (+10.3%) |
| Sales | $19.34B | $19.13B | +$210.0M (+1.1%) |
Sales for the year were $71.7 million, up 92.7%, but much of that came from two companies LightPath bought. Counting both as owned in both years, sales grew 38.7%. Gross margin, the share of sales left after making the product, reached 39.4% in the last quarter, against 22.0% a year before. Orders waiting to be delivered held at a record $110.9 million. The yearly loss grew to $20.5 million.
What it did to the thesisWe rewrote several lines and kept the view. Growth without the purchases was 38.7%, not the 92.7% headline: the overstatement our case rests on. The margin cleared a test level a year early, but bigger camera redesigns slipped. Still Unattractive, Medium conviction.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.02 | -$0.01 | -$0.01 |
| Sales | $21.16M | $20.60M | +$558K (+2.7%) |
Only two of G5 Infrared's cameras used BlackDiamond as at May 2026. Management said the remaining G5 cameras still used germanium and are 'the majori…
Backlog was about $110.6M at 31 March 2026, up 196% from $37.4M at 30 June 2025. The 30 June 2025 figure itself included $16.6M of G5 Infrared produc…
Revenue in the quarter ended 31 March 2026 was $19,149,814 against $9,167,627, up 109%. Gross profit was $6,956,283, or 36.3% of revenue, against 29.…
The 10-Q's own pro forma table, prepared as if G5 had been owned from 1 July 2023 and Amorphous from 1 July 2024, puts revenue for the March 2026 qua…
The chief financial officer said gross margin should keep improving towards 40% from the 36% reported, but that the cost of scaling fast would slow t…
Adobe's quarterly filing completed the cash figures its results announcement left out. Over four quarters it kept $10.59 billion of cash after running and investing in the business, or $8.52 billion after counting the shares it pays staff with. Against $94.4 billion, what the whole company costs at the 23 September share price with debt added and cash taken off, that is a 9.0% yearly return.
What it did to the thesisOnly figures were updated; the argument did not change. At our 9% required return, the price now assumes no growth at all. The view stays Attractive and confidence Low, because what keeps it low is untouched: no date for the price rises, slow contract growth, a new chief executive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $6.13 | $6.08 | +$0.05 (+0.8%) |
| Sales | $6.76B | $6.69B | +$66.1M (+1.0%) |
$26.78B remained authorised for repurchases at 29 May 2026, including a new $25B authority granted in April 2026 running to April 2030.
Free cash flow over the four quarters to 29 May 2026 was $10.28B on operating cash flow of $10.48B, against $10.03B of operating cash flow in fiscal…
After about $2.03B of stock pay, trailing cash profit is about $8.25B against a company value of about $110.9B: a 7.4% yearly return, which on a 9% r…
The shares closed at $265.60 on 14 September 2026, against the $275.30 at which this thesis was first struck three weeks earlier.
At $275.30 the company is valued at 15.2 times the $7.23B it earned in the four quarters to 29 May 2026, against a six-year median of about 42 times…
Sales grew 12.9% and Adobe raised its sales and profit targets for the year. But signed contracts not yet billed grew only 8.4%, to $22.16 billion: slower than sales, and the first growth under 10% since early in its 2023 financial year. New yearly subscription income added in the quarter fell about a third from a year earlier. Asked when delayed Creative Cloud price rises resume, management did not say.
What it did to the thesisThe view stays Attractive, as the shares still look cheap for what Adobe is, but our confidence fell from Medium to Low. Our case rests on those price rises being only delayed. Adobe had its first chance to say so and declined, and the head of that business is leaving.
In the quarter to July 2026 recurring revenue grew 25% while reported sales grew only 17%. The gap is the move to the cloud: a licence is booked up front, a cloud subscription month by month, so every customer that moves lowers this quarter's sales and raises later ones.
Adjusted profit was 20% of sales, but after $68.3M of stock pay the company still lost money. Management raised its forecast for recurring revenue for the year and said its AI-agent products passed $70M.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the core case: customers kept moving to the cloud and the year's forecast went up. It left the AI question open, because the AI figure counts customers who could upgrade as well as those who did, and the products only ship this quarter.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.09 | $0.08 | +$0.01 |
| Sales | $308.81M | $310.25M | In line |
The quarter to 1 August 2026 showed the company's two halves pulling apart. Drones and counter-drone systems grew 21%, with small drones up 71%, and earned all the profit. Space and cyber fell 21% and lost money before interest and amortisation.
Funded orders rose to a record $1.5B and management held its full-year guide. The catch is the calendar: the guide puts 55% of the year's sales in the second half, so most of the year is still to come.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the drone half, which grew fast on funded orders, and held the guide. It weakened the case for the acquired space unit, still shrinking and unprofitable. It left open whether the back-loaded year arrives.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.59 | $0.22 | +$0.37 (+166.4%) |
| Sales | $480.49M | $451.95M | +$28.5M (+6.3%) |
In Q2 fiscal 2027, the three months to July, revenue rose 13.4% to $410.3M and recurring revenue 12.4% to $1.94B. UiPath made $31.6M of operating profit under the official accounts, against a loss a year earlier, and existing customers spent more.
The problem was the guide. Management expects about 7.6% growth in Q3, and on the call it said AI products had passed $250M a year without filing the figure. Part of that came from WorkFusion, a company it bought in February.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the business is profitable and customers are spending more, but the guide for the next quarter showed growth slowing, and the AI products' size is still only management's word, so the question of how big they are stayed open.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.15 | $0.15 | In line |
| Sales | $410.26M | $397.77M | +$12.5M (+3.1%) |
In Q2 FY2027, the three months to August 1, 2026, revenue was $508.4M, up 30%, and recurring revenue grew 30% to $2.125B. Management raised its forecast for the year to 26% growth, from 21% to 22% in March.
Profit depends on the measure. On management's own measure the business kept 21 cents of each dollar; officially it kept 1 cent, because share-based pay of $101.1M is left out of the first. Management also expects device and memory costs to cut this year's cash margin by about a point.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the growth case: another quarter of fast growth and a higher forecast for the year. It also confirmed the cost case, with official profit near nil and a lower cash margin ahead, so the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.20 | $0.16 | +$0.04 (+25.0%) |
| Sales | $508.44M | $483.29M | +$25.2M (+5.2%) |
In the year to July 2026 revenue grew 23%, recurring revenue 19% and the value of signed contracts once fully stepped up 22%. Fewer customers left than in any year Guidewire has measured.
The outlook for fiscal 2027 disappointed. Recurring revenue is guided to grow 18%, the first quarter's figure came in below what analysts expected, and the plan assumes customer losses return to normal. Management says more than half of next year's new recurring revenue is already signed.
What it did to the thesisThe year showed the customer base holding through the AI scare: losses fell to a record low and the largest customers kept signing. It left open how fast new business arrives, since the next year's outlook assumes more customers leave and the first quarter came in soft.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.99 | $0.93 | +$0.06 (+6.4%) |
| Sales | $411.09M | $402.61M | +$8.5M (+2.1%) |
In Q3 fiscal 2026, the quarter ended August 1, sales rose 37% to $1.67B, and optical sales grew 46.1%. Profit margins hit a record, helped a little by a one-off refund of tariffs.
Orders kept coming faster than Ciena could ship: backlog rose $800M to $8.5B, and management expects more than $10B by the end of October. It set a floor of 30% growth for fiscal 2027, saying supply, not demand, is the limit.
What it did to the thesisIt proved demand is real and still outrunning supply, which is the case for the business. It left open the question that decides the view: how much of the swelling backlog is customers ordering early in a shortage, and whether those orders hold once parts are plentiful.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.11 | $1.73 | +$0.38 (+22.0%) |
| Sales | $1.67B | $1.64B | +$33.9M (+2.1%) |
The question we set in advance was whether software subscription sales grew again. They fell 1.9% to $52.7 million, a second quarter of decline, which the company's filing puts mainly down to one-time items. The rest held: advertising sales rose 8.9%, both full-year forecasts were kept, and cash flow rose to $13.8 million from $9.6 million.
What it did to the thesisWe rewrote the claims this quarter touched, and our Neutral view held. The shrinking software line is the weak spot, but forecasts held and cash flow rose. After a 16% fall, the share price is no longer what holds us back; the declining software sales are.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.03 | $0.09 | -$0.06 |
| Sales | $129.46M | $129.06M | In line |
Management says the subscription decline is deliberate - it moderated pricing to keep clients and to earn more from payments and advertising.
Fiscal 2027 revenue guidance was cut on 30 March 2026 from $545-559M to $510-520M and reaffirmed on 27 May 2026.
Fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $125-135M was held through the revenue cut and reaffirmed in May 2026.
Trailing free cash flow is about $63.3M, and a year of share issuance is worth about $24.8M at $11.69.
In May 2026 Phreesia cut about 100 internal engineering and product roles and about the same number of contractors.
At 30 April 2026 Phreesia held $74,706 thousand of cash against $90,604 thousand of debt and finance leases.
At $722.6M the price pays about 19 times the free cash flow left after a year of share issuance, on revenue that is flat excluding what it bought.
The first quarter of fiscal 2027, to 31 July, grew 30% to $2.03B, but it ran 14 weeks against 13. Without the extra week growth was 26%, most of it hardware sold at rising prices: hardware sales rose 51% while their gross margin fell to 54.6%.
The rest points the same way. Cash from operations fell 25% as NetApp stocked up on components ahead of price rises, and the next quarter is guided to more revenue but about $22M less gross profit.
What it did to the thesisIt is the main evidence for our negative view. Strip out the extra week and rising flash-chip prices, and little lasting demand is left, while cash fell and the next quarter promises less gross profit. Whether this year is a floor or a peak stays open until the next print.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.58 | $2.12 | +$0.46 (+21.7%) |
| Sales | $2.02B | $1.84B | +$188.0M (+10.2%) |
In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 revenue rose 33.7% to $12.21B, and operating profit reached $1.39B against $247M a year earlier. Orders grew faster still, 42% on management's measure, and networking orders 36%, about 3.5 times networking revenue growth.
The detail is less comfortable. Server revenue grew 35% because prices rose while short supplies of parts capped how many shipped. And inventory nearly doubled to $11.82B in nine months, paid for by owing suppliers more.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed strong demand, and the order growth is what the market prizes. It also supported our caution: servers grew on price while parts were short, inventory piled up, and networking sales have not yet matched networking orders. The price leaves little room, so the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.11 | $0.93 | +$0.18 (+19.3%) |
| Sales | $12.20B | $11.97B | +$231.1M (+1.9%) |
The second quarter of fiscal 2027, to 31 July, looked like a turn. Sales grew 17.7% to $116.1M and the operating loss narrowed to $34.1M from $59.0M.
Look closer and much of it was one-off. A tariff refund supplied 4 percentage points of the record 36% gross margin. Cash held up only because $40.7M of unsold equipment was sold off; without it, the half's cash outflow would have been $81.5M, not $40.8M. And the next quarter is guided to $105M to $115M, below this one.
What it did to the thesisIt weakened the turnaround story more than it helped. Growth was real, but the record margin and the steady cash leaned on a tariff refund and on selling off stock, both one-offs. A weaker forecast for the next quarter keeps the view Unattractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$1.35 | -$1.57 | +$0.22 (+14.0%) |
| Sales | $116.08M | $105.21M | +$10.9M (+10.3%) |
The third quarter of fiscal 2026 was large on every line: sales up 86%, AI chips up 221% to $16.7B, and $13.7B of free cash, 46 cents of every sales dollar.
The one figure that fell is the one the market watches. Custom chips keep less profit after production costs than Broadcom's older products, so that share slipped to 75 cents in the dollar and is guided to 73. Operating margin still rose to 67.9%, because costs grew 22% while chip sales grew 127%.
What it did to the thesisIt strongly supported the case: AI chip sales and cash surged, and the yearly AI outlook rose. The one weakness was the shrinking share of each sale kept after production costs, though operating margin still rose. Whether growth lasts beyond next year, which the price does not credit, stays open.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.32 | $3.22 | +$0.10 (+3.1%) |
| Sales | $29.59B | $29.24B | +$350.1M (+1.2%) |
The audited annual report arrived two days after we wrote our case, which used the company's earlier results announcement. Every figure matched, including $11,480 million of sales for the year. What changed is the list of rivals the company names: six new ones arrived with CyberArk and Chronosphere, and Wiz is no longer named.
What it did to the thesisFigures updated; the view held, and we still find the shares unattractive. Our case is that cash per share grows near 10% a year while the share price pays for 23% sales growth. The report confirmed every figure that case uses, and the shares rising about 18% widened the gap.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.02 | $0.98 | +$0.04 (+4.1%) |
| Sales | $3.41B | $3.35B | +$58.3M (+1.7%) |
At $333.85 the market pays about 52 times the adjusted free cash flow per share the company guides for fiscal 2027, for a figure it guides to grow ab…
Palo Alto's own annual report names Cisco, Microsoft, Alphabet, Check Point, Fortinet, CrowdStrike, Zscaler and Wiz as its main competitors.
The fiscal 2026 annual figures come from a results release marked preliminary and unaudited; the fiscal 2026 Form 10-K had not been filed as at 8 Sep…
In the second quarter of fiscal 2027, to 31 July, sales grew 21.3% to $286.3M and the shares jumped about 21%. The forecast told a different story: second-half growth slows to about 15%, and profit before stock pay falls 28% from a year earlier.
The cost of serving customers rose 75.9% against subscription sales up 21.5%, so the share of each sales dollar left after those costs fell from 90 cents to 86.5.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the case against the shares. Sales beat, but the company's own forecast has profit falling in the second half, and serving customers is getting more expensive as the newer services grow. The price assumes profit the business has never earned, which keeps the view Unattractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.24 | $0.18 | +$0.06 (+33.4%) |
| Sales | $286.25M | $273.13M | +$13.1M (+4.8%) |
The first quarter of fiscal 2027 was another record: sales of $479.0M, up 114.7% on a year earlier. Yet reported operating profit fell $35.1M in a quarter when sales rose $42.0M.
The company's own reconciliation explains the fall: pay in shares rose $38.3M, and the May purchase of DustPhotonics added $11.2M of amortisation. That explains the fall without excusing it. Pay in shares was $88.0M, 18.4% of sales and 97.5% of the cash the business generated.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed demand is still racing ahead. It also exposed the cost the Neutral view worries about: pay in shares and a recent purchase swallowed the gain, so reported profit fell. Certainty about the second half of the year, which rests on orders not yet placed, did not return.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.20 | $1.17 | +$0.03 (+2.6%) |
| Sales | $479.00M | $473.30M | +$5.7M (+1.2%) |
In the quarter to 31 July 2026, sales grew 21% to $292.0M and the company added $56M of new subscriptions, 4% more than a year earlier. It raised its forecast for the year to $1.202B to $1.207B of sales.
Underneath, fewer new large customers arrived: those paying over $100,000 grew 13%, against 18% in January. The share of each sale kept after running costs fell from 75% to 72%. Counting stock pay, the quarter lost $90.8M.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the recent quarters adding more new subscriptions than a year ago, which argues against us, but the year's outlook still implies a slower second half, and profit kept less of each sale. The question of whether additions grow again stays open.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.08 | $0.07 | +$0.01 |
| Sales | $291.98M | $290.24M | +$1.7M (+0.6%) |
Revenue in Q2 FY27 rose 37% from a year earlier to $2.74B, and data center sales rose 46%. Management guided the next quarter above $3.15B, up more than 50%, and raised its FY28 outlook to about $18B.
The shares still fell 10.3% the next day. Analysts' questions turned on timing: most of the revenue tied to Google's warrant arrives after FY28, and the company left the detail for its Investor Day.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the business is accelerating and that management keeps raising its plan. It left open the part the price depends on: whether custom revenue after next year arrives on time, at the scale the Google deal suggests.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.94 | $0.93 | +$0.01 (+1.1%) |
| Sales | $2.74B | $2.72B | +$18.0M (+0.7%) |
In the year to June 2026 IREN's revenue rose 41% to $707.0M, but the mix is what mattered: AI rentals grew from $16.4M to $128.8M, while mining, still most of the total, began shutting down. In the June quarter alone revenue fell from a year earlier as miners were switched off before the chips arrived.
It lost $702.6M for the year, mostly by writing down retired mining machines. Cash from operations was $2.10B, almost all of it customers paying in advance, against more than $4B spent on buildings and chips.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the switch is real: the AI business is growing fast and customers are paying in advance. It also showed the cost: heavy write-downs, spending far above the cash coming in, and a plan for next year far larger than the company. The view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$1.89 | -$0.55 | -$1.34 (-243.2%) |
| Sales | $137.20M | $132.29M | +$4.9M (+3.7%) |
The year to June 2026 was the turn. Affirm made an operating profit of $417M, against a loss of $87.3M the year before, because revenue grew 32% to $4.26B while funding costs grew only 7%.
The reported net profit of $1.93B is mostly one entry: a $1.44B tax benefit, booked once the company had been profitable long enough to use its past losses. Before tax, the business earned $492.7M.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the turn the thesis was waiting for: lending at scale became profitable, with funding costs growing far slower than revenue. It also showed the shares are not as cheap as they look, because most of the year's profit was a one-time tax entry. Whether profit lasts is open.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $4.62 | $0.35 | +$4.27 (+1229.5%) |
| Sales | $1.17B | $1.11B | +$58.9M (+5.3%) |
In Q3 FY2026 sales were $2.48B against $1.74B a year earlier, most of the rise from Ansys. Design software and simulation brought in $2.0B at a 45.2% margin before some costs; chip parts $474M at 26.5%.
Beneath the total, the core design software grew 8.5%, below the 13% the five-year plan needs, against a strong quarter a year earlier. Chip parts grew about 11%, the first sign the 2025 slump has passed. Management raised its forecast for the year again.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the business: chip parts returned to growth and the year's forecast rose. It left open what the view turns on, because core design software grew below the plan's floor while its main rival grew faster.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.91 | $3.67 | +$0.24 (+6.5%) |
| Sales | $2.48B | $2.44B | +$39.2M (+1.6%) |
On the surface the second quarter of fiscal 2027, which ended in July 2026, was strong. Sales rose 25% to $83.2M, earnings beat the forecast for the eighth quarter running, and management raised its full-year guidance.
Underneath, most of the growth was bought. Without FluentStream and Phone.com, sales grew 8%. Reported profit was $3.0M; the $10.2M the company headlines adds back pay given in shares and the cost of the purchases.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the plan but showed most growth was bought, with the company's own sales growing slowly and real profit far below the headline figure. That keeps the view Neutral: the price is fair, and the copper-replacement product meant to speed growth is still not disclosed.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.35 | $0.33 | +$0.02 (+6.0%) |
| Sales | $83.23M | $81.72M | +$1.5M (+1.8%) |
In Q2 fiscal 2027, the three months to July, revenue grew 11% to $805M. Contracts due to be billed in the next year grew faster, 14%, and management said new products made up about 30% of sales booked.
It raised its forecast for the year a second time, to $3.216B to $3.226B, but that still implies growth of about 10% in the second half. The finance chief said revenue from AI agent products is still immaterial and will stay so this year. The shares rose 28.6% the next day.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the business picking up: more contracts signed ahead, a higher forecast and new products selling. It did not show the agent revenue the share price now leans on, since management called it immaterial for the year. The view stays unattractive at today's price.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.05 | $0.96 | +$0.09 (+9.3%) |
| Sales | $805.00M | $793.00M | +$12.0M (+1.5%) |
On the surface Q2 FY2027 was another record. Sales rose 106% to $96.2B, data-centre sales 117%, and NVIDIA kept 66 cents of each sales dollar as operating profit. It expects $108.0B next quarter.
Underneath, two things changed. $7.8B of profit was gains on shares NVIDIA owns in other companies, not chip sales. And cash from operations fell to $24.1B from $50.3B the quarter before, because customers were given longer to pay: up to a year for the strongest buyers.
What it did to the thesisIt proved demand is still rising and that NVIDIA can raise prices into it. It left open how good the profit is, because more of it is arriving as money owed and as paper gains, and the next report has to show the cash catching up.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.22 | $2.09 | +$0.13 (+6.2%) |
| Sales | $96.22B | $92.27B | +$3.95B (+4.3%) |
In FY2026, the year to 31 July 2026, revenue rose 12% to $2.85B and recurring revenue 16%. Free cash flow was $841M, 29% of sales, and the operating margin rose to 9.6%.
The guide for FY2027 is about 12% growth again, with free cash flow of $850-950M. Management says demand is fine and the gap is timing: customers wait for scarce servers, so their software licences start later and revenue arrives later than bookings.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the November cut was timing rather than lost demand: recurring revenue sped up and cash came in strong. It left open the speed question, because the new guide keeps growth near the same pace while customers wait for servers.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.60 | $0.49 | +$0.11 (+22.4%) |
| Sales | $757.08M | $738.27M | +$18.8M (+2.5%) |
Q3 fiscal 2026, the quarter to July, looked strong on the surface: sales grew 12.5% to $15.7B, a record for the quarter, and HP raised its forecast for the year. The detail was weaker. PC sales grew 18% while the number of PCs sold fell 16%, so the growth was higher prices, and the profit kept on each PC dollar slipped. Printing shrank 2%.
Earnings included 11 cents a share of tariff refunds after the Supreme Court struck those tariffs down, and the forecast for the October quarter is well below a year earlier once refunds are taken out.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed that HP can push memory costs through to buyers, but showed the price of doing so: fewer PCs sold and thinner PC margins. It left open the question the view hinges on, whether profit holds next year once refunds end.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.83 | $0.66 | +$0.17 (+25.6%) |
| Sales | $15.68B | $14.44B | +$1.24B (+8.6%) |
On the surface the second quarter of fiscal 2027, to 31 July 2026, was a clean win. Revenue grew 25.8%, new subscription value added in the quarter was a record, 51% above a year earlier, and the loss on the official accounts shrank from $105.5M to $33.2M.
Underneath, the improvement mostly was not the business. Take out last year's outage and restructuring charges, which simply fell away, and the operating loss widened 52%. Half the margin gain the company highlighted came from spreading sales commissions over five years instead of four.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the demand half of the case, with record new subscription business. It also confirmed the Unattractive view: the better profit came mostly from last year's charges falling away and from spreading commissions over a longer period, not from the business earning more.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.31 | $0.29 | +$0.02 (+6.9%) |
| Sales | $1.47B | $1.44B | +$30.8M (+2.1%) |
In Q2 FY2027, the three months to July 2026, revenue rose 11% to $11.3B. Without Informatica it grew about 6.4%. The main apps grew 8% after currency effects, no faster than a year earlier.
Management said the number of users grew, few customers left, and Agentforce passed $1.5B of yearly recurring revenue, though on a wider definition than before. Earnings per share jumped, but most of the jump was a gain on investments, chiefly Anthropic, not the business.
What it did to the thesisIt answered the fear that customers were leaving or cutting users, for one quarter. It did not show faster growth without acquisitions, and the earnings beat came from an investment gain, so the case for a better business than the price assumes stayed unproven.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $5.90 | $3.27 | +$2.63 (+80.4%) |
| Sales | $11.35B | $11.33B | In line |
In the quarter to 31 July 2026, revenue grew 4.9%, a little above the company's forecast. Big-company revenue grew 7.8%, its fastest in three years; small-customer revenue grew 0.6%.
Two things took the shine off. The forecast for the next quarter is 3.9% growth, and running the new AI products cost more, so costs grew faster than sales. Reported profit jumped, but almost all of it was a $1.6B paper gain on the Anthropic stake, not the business.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the view that the big-customer half is growing while the small-customer half stays flat. It did not make the business faster: next quarter's forecast is slower, AI costs are rising, and the profit jump was a paper gain on the Anthropic stake, so the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.55 | $1.48 | +$0.07 (+4.7%) |
| Sales | $1.28B | $1.27B | +$10.5M (+0.8%) |
The fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, to June, was a record and beat analysts' earnings forecast by 17.4%. The year's sales reached $3.27B, up 27.2%, at a 36.2% operating margin.
Two things tempered it. Gross margin slipped to 45.8% from 47.0% the quarter before on higher component and shipping costs, which management says may keep rising. And about a quarter of the year's profit growth came from wider margins rather than more sales, which cannot repeat for ever.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed this is a superb business taking share, with record sales and a beat. It also showed the risk the full price ignores: margins slipped on rising costs, and part of the profit growth came from wider margins that cannot widen for ever. The view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $4.73 | $4.03 | +$0.70 (+17.4%) |
| Sales | $937.32M | $850.50M | +$86.8M (+10.2%) |
In the quarter to 2 August 2026 sales rose 5% to $12.6B. The growth came from construction, up 18%, and small tractors and turf, up 12%. Big farm machines, the heart of the business, fell another 6%.
Management raised its fiscal 2026 profit guide to $4.75B to $5.00B, but $382M of tariff refunds over nine months helped, and those will not recur.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the bottom is near for the company as a whole, but not yet for big farm machines, the business the recovery depends on. It supported the quality of the franchise and left open how fast profit recovers, which the price already assumes.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $5.10 | $4.69 | +$0.41 (+8.7%) |
| Sales | $12.61B | $10.81B | +$1.79B (+16.6%) |
Q4 fiscal 2026, reported on 19 August, brought $149.6M of sales, down 24% on a year. Chip sales fell 10% and wafer sales 45%. The company lost 20 cents of gross profit on each dollar.
Management pointed to data-centre chips, which more than doubled over the year, but gave no dollar figure. It guided the next quarter flat at $140M to $160M, the third flat guide in a row.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the Unattractive view: sales kept shrinking, wafers fell hardest, and the company still sells below what its products cost to make. The data-centre growth management pointed to comes with no dollar figure, so the recovery the price assumes is still unproven.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$2.26 | -$2.45 | +$0.19 (+7.8%) |
| Sales | $149.60M | $150.00M | In line |
Q2 2026 looked like another strong quarter: more ships sailing, a higher price per guest-day, and profit per share up from $0.99 to $1.31.
The problem was in what came after. Low water began in mid-July, after the quarter ended, and management said it would cost vouchers for future cruises. And for 2027, ocean bookings were 29% ahead of last year, but river bookings only 11% ahead with 13% more river ships. The shares fell 7.7% that day.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the brand and pricing are strong and ocean demand is healthy. It weakened the river side the view worries about: next year's river bookings are growing more slowly than its new ships, and low water now brings vouchers of unknown cost. That keeps the view Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.31 | $1.26 | +$0.05 (+4.0%) |
| Sales | $2.19B | $2.14B | +$51.2M (+2.4%) |
Q2 2026 was the first quarter with the day-trading limit gone for part of it. Options contracts traded rose 68% from a year earlier and 34% from the first quarter, and revenue rose 51% to $198.8M. Profit was $24.4M, after a $21.7M loss in Q1.
Two things temper it. Much of the swing came from marketing, which fell to $35.0M from about $49.4M in Q1. And funded accounts grew only 8%, to 5.13M: the jump came from existing customers trading more, not many new ones arriving.
What it did to the thesisThe print showed the rule change lifting trading and profit at once, which is the bull case. It left open whether customers keep trading this much once the novelty fades, because accounts barely grew and the profit leaned on lower marketing.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.07 | $0.04 | +$0.03 |
| Sales | $198.83M | $182.97M | +$15.9M (+8.7%) |
Units grew 78.4% in the June 2026 quarter, but revenue only 21.9%, to RMB860.8M, because each sensor sold for about 32% less. Gross margin slipped to 40.1% from 42.5%.
Profit told the same story. Operating income fell 90.4% to RMB2.2M, while net income rose 60.0%, all of it from interest and investment income. For the September quarter the company expects revenue up 38% to 45%, with new lines near half of it.
What it did to the thesisIt is the clearest evidence for both sides of the view. Hesai keeps winning volume, but prices fell faster than volume rose, operating profit nearly vanished and all the net profit came from interest. That is why the view is Neutral: cheap, for a real reason.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.01 | $0.07 | -$0.06 |
| Sales | $126.70M | $126.00M | +$693K (+0.6%) |
Revenue reached $1.32B in Q4 fiscal 2026, up 44.6%, and growth rose in every quarter of the year. Management expects about 43% in the next quarter.
The mix was the story. Links between data centers neared a $1B yearly pace and telecom grew 40%, while the modules for AI clusters, the line most investors watch, were roughly flat after a dip blamed on parts shortages. Free cash flow for the quarter was negative as new buildings went up.
What it did to the thesisThe print showed the business growing faster without its biggest old customer, which supports the case. It also showed the AI module line still stalled and cash going into buildings, so it left open whether new module programs refill the gap the price assumes.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $4.10 | $3.81 | +$0.29 (+7.6%) |
| Sales | $1.32B | $1.28B | +$39.6M (+3.1%) |
The June 2026 quarter caught the old business shrinking before the new one had started. Revenue fell 18.3% to $6.63M, with the first GPU rental adding $1.08M from five weeks, and the company lost $14.36M.
The release led with a positive adjusted profit of $3.3M. That figure kept a $7.69M currency gain, although a currency loss was taken out the year before. Without the gain it was a loss of about $4.3M.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the Unattractive view: the old business shrank before the new rental income arrived, and the headline adjusted profit only looked positive because it kept a currency gain. Nothing in it eased the main worry, which is how the building gets funded without more shares.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.17 | -$0.05 | -$0.12 |
| Sales | $6.60M | $8.75M | -$2.1M (-24.6%) |
Revenue in the June 2026 quarter was $15.06M, but a change in how pass-through electricity is booked added $4.4M; without it, growth from a year earlier was 73%, not 145%.
The three operating segments together lost $1.26M before head office. Head office then cost $13.9M, $9.4M of it paid in shares, and the company lost $40.5M in the first half, $38.2M of it Soluna's own after its partners' share.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the core worry: once head-office costs and pay in shares are counted, the business loses heavily, and part of the growth was a bookkeeping change. Nothing in it moved the AI halls closer to a signed tenant, which is why the view stays Unattractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.18 | -$0.11 | -$0.07 (-63.6%) |
| Sales | $15.06M | $15.70M | -$640K (-4.1%) |
In Q2 2026 sales reached $83.8M, up from $50.1M in the first quarter, and Ondas raised its 2026 target to $525M to $550M. The company led with 85% growth on a basis that counts every business it now owns as if it had always owned it.
The quarterly report tells a different story: $70.0M of the $77.5M rise came from businesses bought in the past year. Meanwhile the loss before interest, tax and one-off items, by the company's own measure, grew from $10.9M to $50.6M.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed that sales are rising fast and the target was raised, but also that the rise was bought, and that losses grew faster than sales. Whether the businesses it already owned grow on their own is still not shown in any filing.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.19 | -$0.09 | -$0.10 |
| Sales | $83.77M | $67.97M | +$15.8M (+23.2%) |
The second quarter of 2026 brought the first profit above $1B: $1.06B, up 66.6%. But profit before tax rose only 40.6%. The difference was the tax rate, which fell from 27.6% to 14.2% on items that may not repeat. At last year's rate the profit would have been about $0.90B.
The gap between what it charges borrowers and what it pays for money, after losses, also hit a record: 12.4%, against 9.5% the quarter before, and management credits about a third of that beat to a government debt-renegotiation programme.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the business is strong, but not as strong as the record suggests: a lower tax rate and a government debt programme did much of the work. That is why the view is Neutral, since the price assumes this year's profits become normal.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.22 | $0.20 | +$0.02 (+10.1%) |
| Sales | $5.88B | $5.39B | +$489.9M (+9.1%) |
The second quarter of 2026 brought steady numbers and a big change in orders. Revenue rose 6.5% and profit before interest and depreciation 2.5%, as older contracts renewed at lower prices.
Orders were the story: 260MW booked in the quarter and 470MW in the half, a record, so management doubled its target for the year to 1GW and raised its revenue and profit guidance. The catch is timing. Customers move in over about a year after delivery, so most of this lands in the second half of 2027.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the demand turn is real and binding, and left open the part the view hangs on: whether the new space fills on time in 2027 while older contracts keep repricing down.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.52 | $0.01 | +$0.51 |
| Sales | $454.48M | $454.25M | In line |
The June quarter looked like a breakout. Loans made on Figure's system reached $4,259M, up 132%, revenue more than doubled to $225.6M and net income was $87.4M.
The catch was the slice. Figure kept 3.6 cents of every loan dollar, against 4.0 a year earlier, and management expects the September quarter at the bottom of its range. Preliminary September volume then came in up 107%.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the volume half of the case: lenders keep joining and loans keep growing. It weakened the economics half, because Figure keeps less of each loan and expects to keep less again. Whether profit can grow faster than that slice shrinks is left open.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.37 | $0.24 | +$0.13 (+53.6%) |
| Sales | $218.44M | $208.23M | +$10.2M (+4.9%) |
In the quarter to June 2026 dLocal handled $17.7B, up 92% on a year. Gross profit rose 29% and operating profit 15%, to $64.2M.
The gap is the story. A ride-hailing merchant ramped up at low prices, big Mexican merchants hit cheaper tiers, and costs rose 46% on World Cup marketing and hiring. The company raised its volume and gross profit goals for 2026 but kept its operating profit goal, which the second half now has to carry.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the case against: volume growth no longer passes through to profit, because the price per dollar keeps falling. It left open whether that fall is slowing, and moved the weight of the year's profit goal onto costs in the second half.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.18 | $0.18 | In line |
| Sales | $399.66M | $366.77M | +$32.9M (+9.0%) |
In Q2 2026 Brookfield's own earnings measure, before profits from selling assets, was $1.43B, or $0.61 a share against $0.53 a year earlier. Its funds raised a record $77B, and fees grew 20%.
The insurer grew most, to $191B of investments, after buying Just Group in the UK. The weak spot was property: its earnings over twelve months fell to $638M from $872M, while Brookfield still values that property near its accounting value.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed that the fund manager and the insurer are growing earnings per share. It left open whether the property values hold, which is the weakest part of the private holdings the price is discounting.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.60 | $0.62 | -$0.02 (-3.2%) |
| Sales | $1.62B | $1.66B | -$37.0M (-2.2%) |
The third quarter of fiscal 2026, ended 26 July, was a record, with the next quarter guided 50.7% above a year earlier. The shares still fell 5.1%.
The nine-month figures explain the doubt. Earnings per share rose 47% on sales up 11.4%, but only 37.5% of the profit increase came from the business itself. The rest was investment gains and a tax rate that fell from 27.2% to 12.9%. Unpaid customer bills took $2.51B of cash, more than sales grew.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the business underneath is stronger, with a record quarter and a large forecast. It also confirmed the caution behind the Neutral view: most of the profit growth came from investment gains and a lower tax rate, and the cash did not follow because customers owed more.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.50 | $3.40 | +$0.10 (+2.9%) |
| Sales | $9.12B | $8.99B | +$120.0M (+1.3%) |
On the surface it was a sixth quarter of growth. In fact sales rose by $7,000 over March, and the filing credits the gain to the e-commerce customer, not the retailer whose stores were being fitted.
The margin was worse. Energous kept 3 cents of each sales dollar after making its products, blaming one-off retooling at a factory and scarce parts; it raised prices on 1 July and still aims for 40 cents. It gave no forecast for sales.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the worry: sales stopped growing as the store rollout neared its end, and the margin collapsed. It left open whether the second big customer can carry growth and whether the margin returns, with no guidance to judge either by.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.50 | -$0.22 | -$0.28 (-127.3%) |
| Sales | $3.09M | $3.40M | -$311K (-9.1%) |
The second quarter of 2026 looked like progress: sales of $250.1M, up 88%, and a small profit before interest, tax and depreciation.
Look underneath and it was the credit and a $24.4M tariff refund. Without them, the quarter was a loss of about $34M before overheads. Every sale went to Trina, and Trina supplied $428.1M of materials in the half year, more than T1's whole cost of goods.
The same weeks brought news that the cell plant would cost $510M and start in 2027.
What it did to the thesisIt looked like progress but sharpened the central doubt: without the tax credit and a tariff refund the quarter lost money, and Trina was both the only buyer and the main supplier. A costlier, later cell plant added to it, so the view stays Unattractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.14 | -$0.11 | -$0.03 (-26.9%) |
| Sales | $250.13M | $206.71M | +$43.4M (+21.0%) |
Q2 2026 looked like a turn. Revenue rose 21.8%, the fastest in over four years, and management raised its forecast for the year a second time.
Under the surface, profit per sale fell. Gross margin, what it keeps after paying out fraud, dropped to 45.6% from 49.0%, because new shops start out riskier. Much of the growth came from betting and prediction-market sites and from ticket sales around the World Cup. It still lost $9.1M under standard accounting.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed growth has returned, which supports the market's view. But the profit kept on each sale fell, and much of the lift came from betting sites and one summer's sporting events. The view stays Neutral until growth holds without those boosts.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.02 | $0.01 | +$0.01 |
| Sales | $98.69M | $89.18M | +$9.5M (+10.7%) |
Q2 2026 revenue was $582.3M, up 454% on a year earlier, and the yearly pace of billing reached $3.0B. Before depreciation, interest and tax the business earned 41 cents on each dollar of sales.
Under the official accounts it still lost $190.4M. The chips wear out on paper over five years, interest is rising, and a one-off acquisition cost landed in the quarter. Spending on equipment was $5.66B, against $2.25B of cash coming in, most of it customer prepayments.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the demand: revenue and the billing pace are soaring. It also showed the cost: heavy losses on the official accounts, spending far above the cash coming in, and depreciation stretched to flatter profit. The price assumes the plan works, so the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.12 | -$0.72 | +$0.60 (+83.7%) |
| Sales | $582.30M | $569.89M | +$12.4M (+2.2%) |
In the quarter to 5 July 2026 sales rose 4.8%, mostly on higher prices rather than more batteries. Defence sales grew 23.6% and network power 9.4%, while forklift and truck sales fell 3.2%.
Profits looked better than they were. Without the US credit and a one-off $30.9M tariff refund, earnings per share were $1.78, against $3.66 reported on the company's adjusted basis. Management guided next quarter's sales to $955M to $995M.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the core still edging forward on price rather than volume, with defence and network power growing and forklifts shrinking. It left open the two questions the view turns on: whether forklift demand recovers, and what the businesses earn without the credit.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.66 | $2.83 | +$0.83 (+29.3%) |
| Sales | $935.60M | $928.01M | +$7.6M (+0.8%) |
In Q4 FY26 revenue grew 18% to $17.25B, the fastest in years, and orders rose 35%. Management then guided FY27 to about 15% growth.
Two details tempered it. The share of each sale Cisco keeps as gross profit fell to 66.3% from 68.4%, because memory chips cost more. And about 5 points of the quarter's growth came from raising prices, which management expects to add 4 to 5 points this year, mostly in the first half.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the upswing is real and broad, beyond the AI orders. It also showed how much of it is price, and that profit on each sale is shrinking, which leaves open how strong demand looks once the price rises stop.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.22 | $1.17 | +$0.05 (+4.3%) |
| Sales | $17.25B | $16.84B | +$415.7M (+2.5%) |
In the fiscal year ended June 2026 revenue grew 22.5% to $7.12B. The data-centre side rose 40.5%; the industrial side shrank 10.3% and fell in every quarter.
The profit is weaker than the headline. $198.1M of pre-tax earnings came from two business sales that will not repeat, and a 7.2% tax rate flattered the rest. Above all, $786.9M of earnings produced $79.5M of operating cash: $1.18B went into inventory, paid for mainly by taking 156 days to pay suppliers instead of 82.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the demand for data-centre optics and also the core of the Unattractive view. Much of the profit came from one-off sales and a low tax charge, and almost none of it became cash, because inventory was funded by paying suppliers far more slowly.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.74 | $1.62 | +$0.12 (+7.4%) |
| Sales | $2.05B | $1.98B | +$60.9M (+3.1%) |
The June 2026 quarter looked like a transformation. The margin had been guided at 8.2% to 8.4% and came in at 17.5%, and the quarter earned 52.8% of the whole year's profit.
Management credits about three-quarters of that to mix and a quarter to one-off items, and guides the September quarter's margin back to 10.4% to 10.8%. Revenue there is guided 30% to 39% higher, earnings per share 40% to 45% lower.
What it did to the thesisIt showed what a good quarter can look like, but management itself guided the margin back down, so it proved little about lasting profit. It left the cheap price looking cheap mainly because of this one quarter, which keeps the view Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.70 | $0.92 | +$0.78 (+84.5%) |
| Sales | $11.12B | $11.60B | -$479.6M (-4.1%) |
Revenue more than doubled in the second quarter of 2026, to $31.2M, but a year earlier carried about $6.8M of investment losses, so the jump overstates the improvement. Locate fees grew 22.9% across the first half.
Costs grew faster. Staff pay took 64.8% of first-half revenue, and the half turned the previous half's operating profit of $4.7M into a loss of $3.3M. Meanwhile the capital the broker must hold fell 23.3%, to $47.3M, as its lending rose 49.7%.
What it did to the thesisIt backed our negative view. Lending fees grew, but staff pay grew faster and turned a profit into a loss, while the broker's capital shrank as lending rose. Nothing in it shows growth reaching owners rather than employees.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.01 | — | — |
| Sales | $31.17M | — | — |
Q4 fiscal 2026 was another record: revenue doubled from a year earlier to $1.01B and grew 24.5% in three months. Profit grew faster, because factories ran full and the company raised some prices. The 10-K says fuller factories explain about half of the year's jump in margin.
Management guided the next quarter to $1.225B to $1.275B, more than double a year earlier, and said it still cannot make enough lasers. Its optical switch line expects its first quarter above $100M.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the laser shortage and the pricing power it brings. It also showed that much of the margin gain came from full factories and higher prices, which can fade when supply catches up. The price needs far more, so the view stays Unattractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.23 | $2.97 | +$0.26 (+8.8%) |
| Sales | $1.01B | $987.70M | +$18.6M (+1.9%) |
In the June 2026 quarter sales were $235.9M, up 22.1%, and management led with that. Take out Valiant, the pump maker bought in March, and underlying growth was about 6.7%.
Margins went the other way. The adjusted profit margin fell for a second quarter to 39.8%, as lubricant costs hit records and contracts do not let Flowco pass them on. The adjusted profit forecast for the next quarter, $92M to $98M, is barely above this one.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the view that Flowco is fairly priced rather than cheap. Most of the growth was bought, and the business on its own grew modestly while its margin fell again. Whether it can grow without acquisitions is still unproven, and that is the open question.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.36 | $0.37 | -$0.01 (-2.7%) |
| Sales | $235.86M | $234.63M | +$1.2M (+0.5%) |
In the June 2026 quarter sales rose 112% to $2,575M, and nearly all of the growth came from existing customers taking more capacity. Before depreciation, interest and tax it kept 59 cents of each sales dollar.
After those it lost $626M. The chips are written off over six years, so new capacity costs money before it earns, and interest of $640M in the quarter ate the rest. It spent $14.1B on equipment in six months against $3.7B of cash coming in.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the demand: sales doubled and the signed backlog kept growing. It also showed the cost: losses after interest, spending far above the cash coming in, and a margin still falling. The view stays Neutral because the funding, not the demand, decides the case.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$1.03 | -$1.21 | +$0.18 (+14.9%) |
| Sales | $2.58B | $2.55B | +$20.5M (+0.8%) |
The third quarter of fiscal 2026, to 3 July, read like a business speeding up. Management raised its growth forecast for the year, leaving out acquisitions, to 9% to 10%, and adjusted operating profit for the nine months was 12.8% above a year earlier.
The cash told a different story. Over the nine months operations used $264.8M, partly because payments to win clients nearly doubled to $189.9M. And interest took $244.0M of the $652.9M of operating profit.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the old food-service business is speeding up, which explains most of the repricing. It did not prove Nexus, still small and unsized, and cash went out while interest took a large share of profit. So the price still pays for Nexus succeeding before the sites are signed.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.52 | $0.48 | +$0.04 (+8.3%) |
| Sales | $5.03B | $4.94B | +$88.9M (+1.8%) |
In the June 2026 quarter revenue grew 33% to $47.7M, almost all of it in the identity and software segment, and Telos earned a small profit with $6.6M of free cash flow.
The surprise was the outlook. Management guided the September quarter 2% to 4% below a year earlier, which had carried one-off start-up revenue, and cut the top of the year's range to $195M, while raising its profit guide. The shares fell 15.7% that day.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the profit and cash from the two programs are real and growing faster than revenue. It also showed the revenue line has peaked for now, and left open whether new awards replace the resale that ends next year.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.04 | $0.02 | +$0.02 |
| Sales | $47.74M | $45.17M | +$2.6M (+5.7%) |
The June 2026 quarter showed fast growth and no profit. Revenue rose 62% to $234.1M and the company lost $49.3M; it has not reported a profitable quarter in its recent filings.
The direction on margin is down. In June 36.1 cents of each sales dollar was left after making the product; guidance for September is 29 to 31 cents. And because acquisitions and the business's own growth are reported together, nobody can tell how fast the parts business grows by itself.
What it did to the thesisIt supported our negative view. Sales grew fast but losses continued, margins are guided lower, and nobody can tell how much growth came from acquisitions. The rocket and the Iridium deal the price pays for remain unproven by this report.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.08 | -$0.06 | -$0.02 |
| Sales | $234.07M | $231.62M | +$2.4M (+1.1%) |
In Q2 2026 sales rose to $174.2M, but the growth came from building work for AMD and engineering, not mining. Mining revenue fell to $113.7M as each machine earned less, and mining a coin cost more than it was worth once the machines' wear was counted.
The quarter's loss was $237.2M, much of it a fall in the value of bitcoin held. The news that mattered came with the results: the 191 MW lease and a $573M loan to start building it.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the first hall can be delivered on time and that tenants will sign, and it showed mining losing money at low prices. It left open the financing for the big hall, which the view waits on.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.68 | -$0.30 | -$0.38 (-125.3%) |
| Sales | $174.24M | $154.31M | +$19.9M (+12.9%) |
The June-quarter results, published on 10 August 2026, were the last of the old business. Mining ended in the United States in June, revenue halved, and the operating loss reached $140.8M, most of it writing off old mining machines early.
What mattered was the call. There was no lease. Panther Creek's last environmental permits are taking a few months longer, and Moses Lake slipped a couple of months. The company spends about $100M a year on overheads, against roughly $819M of cash and bitcoin. Québec's Sherbrooke project still waits for the province.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the gap the case rests on. The old mining business is gone, the permits slipped and there is still no tenant, while overheads eat into the cash. The price assumes leases nobody has signed, so the view stays Unattractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.11 | -$0.07 | -$0.04 |
| Sales | $30.43M | $31.46M | -$1.0M (-3.3%) |
The second quarter of 2026 was a good one. Gross margin reached 34.6%, orders grew by double digits for the fourth quarter running, and the full-year forecast rose again, to $880M to $900M of sales.
But the forecast holds a catch. It implies second-half adjusted earnings of about $1.47 a share, against $1.53 a year earlier: the recovery flattening.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the recovery and the stronger balance sheet are real. It also showed the earnings rebound flattening, since the raised forecast implies a weaker second half than last year's. The data centre order the growth story needs is still not signed, so the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.88 | $0.80 | +$0.08 (+10.0%) |
| Sales | $231.90M | $230.66M | +$1.2M (+0.5%) |
The June 2026 quarter showed the cost of the switch. Revenue rose to $228.8M, but once the rigs' wear was charged the company made a gross loss of $8.5M and a net loss of $92.3M. Part of that is a choice: rigs are now written off over two to three years, and depreciation jumped to $107.7M from $22.8M.
Cash went out faster still. Operations used $158.5M and building took $266.0M, and $457M of new shares filled the gap. The shares fell 20.0% on the day.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the worry behind the Unattractive view. The switch to renting power to AI is costing more cash than the business makes, and new shares paid the gap. Nothing in it showed the outside funding that would let the lease pay off for today's holders.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.37 | -$0.36 | -$0.01 (-2.7%) |
| Sales | $228.78M | $228.67M | In line |
Q2 2026 brought $31.5M of revenue, more than double Q1, almost all of it ground equipment and government milestones. The loss to shareholders was $230.9M, including $125.9M for a satellite a rocket left in too low an orbit.
Seven of the new large satellites are in orbit, and three more were trucked to the launch site on 30 September with no launch date yet. The company kept its 2026 revenue goal of $150M to $200M, which needs the second half to bring more than double the first.
What it did to the thesisIt did little to help the argument. Revenue still comes from low-margin equipment and government work rather than the phone service, and a lost satellite deepened the loss. Keeping the yearly goal needs a much bigger second half, and the slipping launch timetable keeps the view Unattractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.77 | -$0.32 | -$0.45 (-142.9%) |
| Sales | $31.52M | $34.53M | -$3.0M (-8.7%) |
The June 2026 quarter looked strong. Revenue rose 25% to $622.7M and earnings before interest, tax and depreciation, the company's main measure, 22.7% to $99.7M. Management raised its yearly forecast for the second time.
The weak spot was the margin. The share of each revenue dollar kept as those earnings rose by less than a fifth of a point, as salaries rose 6.8% and rolling out its own AI cost money. The software arm grew 56.5% and still lost money.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the growth half of the argument: patients keep coming and the forecast rose again. It did nothing for the half the price needs, because margins barely moved, so the question of whether growth ever makes the business more profitable stays open.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.29 | $0.20 | +$0.09 (+44.7%) |
| Sales | $622.72M | $610.87M | +$11.9M (+1.9%) |
Operating profit, which leaves out swings in the stock portfolio, was $12.98B in Q2 2026 against $11.16B a year earlier. The growth came from the railroad, the utilities and the factories, helped by two purchases.
Insurance went the other way. GEICO paid out 91.2 cents of each dollar customers paid, up from 83.5 cents, as injury claims became more frequent and more expensive, and its underwriting profit fell to $994M from $1.82B. Investment income on the insurers' money fell too, as interest rates were lower than a year before.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed that the railroad, utilities and factories are growing, partly through purchases, and that insurance profit is coming down from its peak. It left open how far car-insurance margins fall, which is the question the view turns on.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $6.02 | $5.13 | +$0.89 (+17.3%) |
| Sales | $101.81B | $96.52B | +$5.29B (+5.5%) |
The June 2026 quarter looked like a miss: earnings per share of $0.76 against the $1.61 analysts expected, and revenue well short. It was not an operating miss.
A $472M paper loss on contracts protecting future prices went through the accounts. Underlying profit, the company's own measure without those swings, rose to $1,767M from $1,349M, over 30%. Management kept its 2026 forecast of $6.8B to $7.6B and its $7.4B to $7.8B aim for 2027, even as Texas power prices for future delivery fell.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the Attractive case: the earnings miss came from paper losses on hedges, while the company's own measure of underlying profit grew strongly and both forecasts held. What it left open is whether those forecasts survive weaker Texas power prices.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.77 | $1.61 | -$0.84 (-52.2%) |
| Sales | $4.02B | $5.46B | -$1.45B (-26.5%) |
The June quarter looked strong: sales up 36%, and the full-year forecast raised to $1.125B to $1.175B.
Underneath, the flagship cleaning line shrank 14%; the growth came from plating and packaging. Reported earnings per share of $1.23 were double the company's own adjusted $0.61, because of a $69.6M paper gain on investments. And the cash told a third story: operations used $6.4M, the fifth quarter out of six in which they consumed cash.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the growth is real but sits where the thesis said: in the newer plating and packaging tools, while the flagship cleaning business shrank. Earnings were flattered by a paper gain and cash still went out, so the view stays Neutral until a new line wins production orders.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.61 | $0.42 | +$0.19 (+45.4%) |
| Sales | $292.92M | $269.28M | +$23.6M (+8.8%) |
The June quarter of 2026 was the best case for the turnaround: revenue of $546.5M, up 23.9%, against $505M to $515M guided, the third beat in a row. The loss from operations narrowed to $32.2M from $118.8M, and the shares rose 15.1% the next day.
The company prefers its own measure, 'Strategic' revenue, which grew 38% by leaving out the ad network it shut and the business it sold. On the ordinary measure growth was 24%, and the loss is still a loss.
What it did to the thesisIt was the best evidence yet that the turnaround is real, with a third straight beat and a smaller loss. It did not change the view: the business still loses money on the ordinary measure, and the price already pays for years more of improvement.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.05 | -$0.11 | +$0.06 (+56.0%) |
| Sales | $546.47M | $514.72M | +$31.7M (+6.2%) |
The June 2026 quarter looked steadier: sales of $56.4M against $56.8M a year earlier, after a first quarter that fell sharply. The margin looked better too, at 38.8%, but $4.3M of it was a refund of tariffs the courts struck down; without it the margin was about 31%, a point lower than a year ago.
The first half lost $22.5M. Management said retailers had stopped cutting their stocks and kept its forecast for the year.
What it did to the thesisIt showed sales stopped falling in the quarter but left the case open: a one-off tariff refund flattered the margin, the first half still lost money, and keeping the forecast pushes the whole test onto the holiday.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.36 | -$0.31 | -$0.05 (-16.0%) |
| Sales | $56.37M | $60.10M | -$3.7M (-6.2%) |
PAR's Q2 2026 sales rose 18.7% to $133.4M, and its adjusted profit, before interest, tax and stock pay, almost tripled to $14.3M. Part of that came from one big customer replacing its terminals, a job that will not repeat.
Underneath, recurring revenue grew 12.3% without Bridg, the slowest part of the story. The loss was still $16.9M, including a $5.4M write-off of an old brand name. Management raised its 2026 forecast and said growth would pick up through the rest of the year.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the cost cuts are working and profit is rising, but left the main question open: growth without the acquisition was the slowest yet, and the speed-up management promised has still to show.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.18 | $0.12 | +$0.06 (+49.2%) |
| Sales | $133.41M | $124.66M | +$8.7M (+7.0%) |
The June 2026 quarter headlined 55.9% growth and a four-point margin gain. Both flatter. Counting Stereolabs in both years, growth was 44.1%. Take out a $5.4M tariff refund this year and a $1.7M credit last year, and gross margin fell to 39.0% from 40.3%.
That is still a real business growing fast, and it beat its own revenue forecast for the second quarter running. It also lost $20.0M at the operating line.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed a real business growing fast and beating its own forecasts. It also weakened the margin story, since the improvement came from a one-off refund. The view stays Neutral because the price already assumes the top half of the plan.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.26 | -$0.12 | -$0.14 (-112.3%) |
| Sales | $54.63M | $51.47M | +$3.2M (+6.1%) |
Q2 2026 confirmed the turnaround. Claims took 79.2% of premium against 91.1% a year earlier, running costs fell to 14.2% of revenue, and profit was $1.10 a share against $0.40 expected.
Part of it came from the past. $164M of the quarter's profit was earlier years' estimates reversing, mostly 2025's risk-adjustment bill arriving smaller than feared, and the chief financial officer put the claims ratio at about 82% without it. The shares fell 11.9% that day, and the guide still implies a loss in the second half.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the price rises worked and running costs fell, which supports the case that Oscar can earn in this market. It left open what decides the view: how much of the profit was last year's estimate reversing, and what the second half costs.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.10 | $0.40 | +$0.70 (+173.7%) |
| Sales | $4.79B | $4.73B | +$59.3M (+1.3%) |
The second quarter of 2026 was a record: sales of $343.1M, up 35.3% on a year earlier, and operating profit of $63.6M. By the company's adjusted measure it looked better still.
The gap between those two measures is the story. Restructuring charges rose from $10.6M in 2023 to $63.4M in 2025, with $30.7M more in the first half of 2026, and about two-thirds of them land in the cost of the tools themselves. Management now promises reported operating margin of 21.4% to 22.4% in the September quarter.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the business is growing fast, but it sharpened the case against paying up: restructuring charges keep eating profit year after year. The view stays Neutral until reported profit actually reaches the band management promised for the September quarter.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.93 | $1.69 | +$0.24 (+14.2%) |
| Sales | $343.13M | $325.29M | +$17.8M (+5.5%) |
The quarter to June 2026 was Insight's best in years. Sales rose 15% and gross profit 18%, led by hardware up 21% as clients bought AI servers and paid more for memory. Cloud gross profit jumped 39%. Management raised its 2026 earnings guide.
Then it added a warning. The chief executive called the quarter a high watermark, said device sales will keep falling for a few quarters, and guided a flatter second half.
What it did to the thesisIt proved demand for AI servers reached Insight's clients and that cloud fees can still grow. It left open the question the view hinges on: whether growth survives the harder comparisons ahead, since management itself expects the second half to be flatter.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.86 | $2.93 | +$0.93 (+31.7%) |
| Sales | $2.40B | $2.18B | +$222.0M (+10.2%) |
In Q2 2026 revenue grew 35.9% to $696.1M, faster than a year earlier. Existing customers spent 20% more and large customers rose 27%. The forecast for 2026 rose to $2.864B to $2.870B, the second raise this year.
The official result was a loss of $205.7M, because a $150.7M charge paid for cutting about a fifth of staff. Before that charge and pay in shares the business made a 13.8% profit. Gross margin slipped again, to 71.8%, as more paid traffic raised network costs.
What it did to the thesisIt showed growth speeding up and customers spending more, which is the strongest evidence against our view. It did not show any revenue from AI agents, and the gross margin kept falling. The view stays unattractive because the price had already moved further than the numbers.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.29 | $0.27 | +$0.02 (+7.5%) |
| Sales | $696.06M | $664.67M | +$31.4M (+4.7%) |
The second quarter of 2026 showed the ramp: sales up 89% to $108.5M, and NdPr sold up 127% to 1,006 tons. Ore output fell, by design, because concentrate no longer goes to China.
Profit is still thin. Adjusted profit before interest, tax and depreciation was $28.5M, the government's price-floor payments in the quarter were $17.6M, and the company lost $29.3M before tax.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the plan working: the China sales are gone and the American metal is selling. But profit is still thin and leans on government price-floor payments, and the magnet plant and customers are not yet proven. So the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.01 | -$0.01 | In line |
| Sales | $108.49M | $96.89M | +$11.6M (+12.0%) |
Q1 fiscal 2027, reported on 6 August, brought $1.48B of sales, up 38% on a year and above the company's forecast for the second quarter running. Data-centre, defence and factory customers all grew.
On the company's preferred measure, profit per share was $0.76; on the reported basis it was $0.37. Management forecast $1.589B to $1.618B for the September quarter, and a profit margin it said would not keep rising.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the recovery is real and broad, and that management can forecast it again. It left open how much is customers refilling empty shelves rather than lasting demand, which is the question the price turns on.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.76 | $0.70 | +$0.06 (+8.6%) |
| Sales | $1.48B | $1.46B | +$26.2M (+1.8%) |
In the June quarter of 2026 riders grew 17% to 30.5 million and bookings 23%, both records, and bookings beat the top of the company's own forecast. Without the European taxi app bought last July and two smaller deals, bookings grew about 14% to 16%.
Profit improved for a reason the release underplays. A California law cut the insurance every ride must carry, so costs stayed flat while rides grew 12%. Lyft spent that saving on rider discounts, which rose from $100 million to $187 million. The 10-Q warns insurance costs will rise again at renewal.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the rider gains, which are real even without the bought taxi app. It also backed our worry: much of the profit gain came from cheaper insurance after a law change, spent on discounts, and insurance costs will rise again. So the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.13 | $0.14 | -$0.01 (-6.9%) |
| Sales | $1.84B | $1.81B | +$37.9M (+2.1%) |
The first quarter of fiscal 2027 repeated the pattern. Sales rose 28.6%, 16.8% without the FlackTek mixer business bought in January, yet net income fell 14.9% and earnings per share 21.4%. Gross margin was 25.0%, down from 26.5% a year earlier.
Orders, the thing the story rests on, fell 23.9%, with defense orders down 42%, and the business used $12.7M of cash in the quarter. The full-year forecast now implies growth of only 2% to 9% for the remaining three quarters, leaving the acquisition out.
What it did to the thesisIt weakened the case for the plan the price assumes. Sales grew, but orders fell, margin slipped, profit fell and cash went out. That is why the view is Unattractive: the backlog is real, but the higher earnings management promises are still not arriving.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.34 | $0.27 | +$0.07 (+25.9%) |
| Sales | $71.34M | $65.60M | +$5.7M (+8.7%) |
Q2 2026 was strong. Revenue rose 15% to $732.1M and profit to shareholders rose to $47.5M from $29.1M, beating what analysts expected for the second quarter running.
The growth came from three company-owned centres ICE started using in 2025, with centres 91% full against 88% a year earlier. GEO raised its forecast for the year a second time. The weak spot was monitoring, where revenue fell as fewer people were enrolled under a cheaper contract.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the operating story: more detention beds filled and the forecast rose again. It did nothing for the part the price depends on, a sale of beds to the government that was then unsigned, and the monitoring business kept shrinking. That leaves the view at Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.37 | $0.29 | +$0.08 (+27.8%) |
| Sales | $732.07M | $721.43M | +$10.6M (+1.5%) |
In the quarter to June 2026, revenue grew 10% to $312.4M and subscription revenue 14%, the third quarter in a row of faster growth. AI revenue grew 78%, and the older seat business 7%. Management raised its outlook for the year and now expects AI to grow at least 60%.
Two things were weaker. The share of each sale kept as gross profit slipped, which management put down to extra setup staff, and cash flow in the quarter was only $15M, which it blamed on timing.
What it did to the thesisThe report answered the fear that AI would shrink the seat business, for now: seats grew with the core while AI accelerated. It did not settle the question, because the AI and seat figures are management's alone, and retention still sits below where it was.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.70 | $0.68 | +$0.02 (+2.9%) |
| Sales | $312.44M | $306.61M | +$5.8M (+1.9%) |
The second quarter of 2026 shows why the headline profit is hard to read. Reported earnings were $1.42 a share, against $4.49 in the first quarter, because gains and losses on the company's hedges pass straight through reported profit. On management's adjusted measure, which strips those out, it earned $2.55.
The number that mattered was the forecast. Management raised its full-year adjusted range to $11.50 to $12.50 a share, from $11.00 to $12.00. The shares fell just 1.5% on the day.
What it did to the thesisIt backed the case that the nuclear fleet earns steadily and management keeps delivering, since it raised its forecast. It did not answer the open question behind the Neutral view: whether new long contracts keep arriving fast enough to justify a price with little room for a setback.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.55 | $2.29 | +$0.26 (+11.4%) |
| Sales | $7.50B | $7.73B | -$226.2M (-2.9%) |
In the June quarter sales rose 4.1%: corporate up 9.3%, small office down 4.7%. The total is improving because the shrinking half now weighs less, not because either half got better.
Profit went the other way. Operating profit fell 5.7% as costs rose 16.7%, and earnings per share rose 39% mainly on a $5.3M paper gain on a stake in a private company. The shares fell 5.9% the next day.
What it did to the thesisIt fitted the view that the headline improves while the business does not. Sales growth came mostly from the shrinking half weighing less, profit fell, and the earnings jump was a paper gain. The cash is still real, which is why the price reads fair and the view Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.49 | $1.48 | +$0.01 (+0.7%) |
| Sales | $91.36M | $89.63M | +$1.7M (+1.9%) |
In Q2 2026 revenue grew 5% to $1.10B. Security grew 10% to $604.4M, delivery and older tools fell 6%, and rented computing rose 39% to $99.3M. CrowdStrike, a security company, switched its own web security to Akamai.
The cost of growth showed. The official operating profit was 7% of revenue, against 25% before pay in shares and other adjustments, and spending on servers reached 32% of revenue. Akamai stopped buying back shares to keep cash for the computing build-out.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the security business holding up and rented computing growing fast, which supports the business case. It also showed the cost: profit fell as spending ran ahead of revenue and buybacks stopped, leaving open what our view turns on, whether the contracts earn their cost.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.59 | $1.57 | +$0.02 (+1.3%) |
| Sales | $1.10B | $1.09B | +$8.4M (+0.8%) |
Revenue rose 46% to $24.1M, and the yearly value of contracts plus royalties reached $99.5M, up 44%. Management raised its 2026 revenue guide for the second time, to $95M to $98M.
Part of that was bought. Cycuity, acquired in January, does government security work through subcontractors, which pushed the share of revenue kept after direct costs from 89% to 85%. The expected 2026 loss before stock pay also widened, to $7M to $10M, even as revenue was raised.
What it did to the thesisThe print confirmed demand is growing and the recurring base is rising, but it left the central question open: costs grew almost as fast as revenue, so whether a profit ever arrives after stock pay is no clearer than before.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.10 | -$0.04 | -$0.06 |
| Sales | $24.13M | $23.48M | +$652K (+2.8%) |
Sales for Q2 2026 were $191.9M, up 86.4%. Data centre sales more than doubled and cable sales rose 43.8%. The company still lost $24.7M at the operating level.
Management called it a return to profit on its adjusted measure. That profit came from a $14.3M tax adjustment: before tax, the adjusted result was still a loss. And the newest 800G modules grew less than the company had said three months earlier, as they have every quarter for a year.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the part of the case the market has right: demand for the data centre modules is real and growing fast. It also confirmed the doubts behind the Unattractive view, since the business still loses money on its own terms and the newest modules again arrived slower than promised.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.06 | $0.02 | +$0.04 |
| Sales | $191.92M | $190.48M | +$1.4M (+0.8%) |
Sales for the quarter ended July 4, 2026 were $918.6M before a $30.0M tariff refund passed back to customers, up 20.5% on a year. Every product line grew, the chip lines fastest at 26% to 30%. Orders ran 32% ahead of shipments.
Gross margin reached 23.3%, the third rise in a row, and the guide for September is 24.0%. The weak spot is MOSFETs: sales up 27.1%, but it kept just 1.4 cents of each dollar as operating profit while taking most of the quarter's spending on plant.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the upturn is real and broad, and that margin is climbing. It left open whether buyers are using the parts or stocking them, and it showed the MOSFET business still barely profitable while it takes most of the new money.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.19 | $0.15 | +$0.04 (+27.5%) |
| Sales | $888.58M | $897.04M | -$8.5M (-0.9%) |
Q2 2026 sales rose 11.7% to $83.9M, below the $85M to $90M the company had promised, and the company made an operating loss of $0.3M.
The problem was not demand. Sensors revenue rose 25.8% and its profit rose 1.2%, because VPG hired and paid more ahead of the orders, and head-office costs rose too. Management blamed a $3.3M currency hit and $3.0M of shipments delayed by a new computer system.
Humanoid sales were $0.32M, about half of Q1, after management had said they could double.
What it did to the thesisIt weakened the case for the plan the price already pays for: orders grew but did not turn into profit, the company fell short of its own forecast, and humanoid sales fell when they were meant to rise. That is why the view stays Unattractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.04 | $0.19 | -$0.15 (-78.9%) |
| Sales | $83.94M | $87.44M | -$3.5M (-4.0%) |
The quarter to June 2026 looked fine on top: sales up 7.2% and new students up 10.9%. Underneath, operating profit fell to $3.2M from $14.2M as new campuses and courses cost money before earning any.
The real news was the outlook. UTI said too few high-school leavers had enrolled for autumn auto and diesel courses and cut this year's forecast. Management blamed too few recruiters and a shift toward shorter, cheaper trade courses.
What it did to the thesisIt weakened the case: the miss arrived unannounced, weeks after insiders sold, and the cash the plan depends on shrank. It left open whether the cause is fixable recruiting or weaker demand, which next year's forecast should show. That keeps the view neutral rather than positive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.04 | $0.02 | +$0.02 |
| Sales | $218.91M | $220.40M | -$1.5M (-0.7%) |
The June quarter shows the gap. Sales grew only 12%, yet bookings grew 22% after currency moves, and trips grew 18%. The British change moved $1.1B out of sales and no profit at all.
Profit tells the real story. Uber's own measure of operating profit, struck after stock pay, grew 40% to $2.14B and rose to 3.7% of bookings from 3.3%. Reported net income of $2.39B was mostly a $1.6B gain on stakes in other companies.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the Attractive case directly: bookings and trips grew strongly and Uber's own profit measure kept compounding, while the slower sales growth was an accounting change. It also showed the reported earnings are mostly gains on stakes in other companies, which we look past.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.81 | $0.81 | In line |
| Sales | $14.19B | $14.24B | In line |
On the surface Q2 2026 was another record: revenue up 31% to $246.1M and profit of $153.9M. The question was where it came from. Oil fetched $97.55 a barrel after war in Iran; at 2025's price the same barrels would have paid about $36.5M less in the quarter.
Water sales fell 19% from the first quarter as drillers moved away from gas-heavy areas. Management expects them to recover. The shares fell 6.9% the next day.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the business keeps growing and turns almost every extra dollar into profit, and that this year's records came mostly from war-driven oil prices. It left the data-centre case open: talk of large deals, no new contract.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.23 | $2.18 | +$0.05 (+2.3%) |
| Sales | $246.06M | $249.50M | -$3.4M (-1.4%) |
The June quarter looked bad on the official accounts: a net loss of $92M against a $72M profit a year earlier. The company's own adjusted profit measure said the opposite, rising to $374M from $90M as capacity and energy revenue grew.
The gap is mostly paper losses on its hedges and interest on its new debt. The company raised its 2026 forecast to $2.025B to $2.225B of that adjusted profit.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the case that the business is earning more, since the company's adjusted profit rose sharply and the forecast went up. It also showed the cost of the debt behind that growth, and no new power contract arrived, so the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$2.00 | $3.21 | -$5.21 (-162.3%) |
| Sales | $747.00M | $832.81M | -$85.8M (-10.3%) |
The second quarter of 2026 looked strong: sales rose 22.8% to $52.9M and profit before interest, tax and non-cash charges was $7.4M. But part of it was repairs held over from a first quarter starved of parts, and the finance chief asked investors to read the half-year instead.
Over the half, sales grew 10.4% and operating profit was flat. Inventory rose as TAT stocked parts, so cash from operations was negative in the quarter. Net income was flattered by a gain on selling a small stake.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the repair business can grow again once parts arrive, which supports the licence case. It did not settle the weak point: profit was flat over the half and cash flow turned negative, so whether growth and margins resume together is still open.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.61 | $0.30 | +$0.31 (+103.3%) |
| Sales | $52.94M | $44.86M | +$8.1M (+18.0%) |
In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, to July, sales rose 51% from the quarter before and nearly fivefold from a year earlier. Most of the jump was price, not volume. Gross margin reached 84.6%, against 26.2% a year earlier.
Management guided the next quarter higher again, to $10.3B to $10.8B of sales at a similar margin. The annual report filed two weeks later showed $59.8B of contracted sales still to deliver.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the shortage is real and that customers will sign years ahead at high prices. It left open what the contracts earn once prices stop rising, because the floors were not disclosed.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $39.25 | $34.96 | +$4.29 (+12.3%) |
| Sales | $8.96B | $8.48B | +$486.5M (+5.7%) |
In the June 2026 quarter, the last before the Renesas business joined, sales rose 127% to $157.4M. Data-centre and network parts rose 181%, so AI networking did most of the work.
It also kept more of each dollar: about 67 cents after making the part, up from 58 a year earlier. Reported profit was much smaller than the adjusted figure, because stock paid to staff counts as a cost there.
For the September quarter, the first with Renesas's business, it guided sales of $285M to $295M.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the AI demand and the pricing power are real, and showed the margin still rising. It left open the central question: whether buyers ordering a year ahead are building products or building stockpiles.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.34 | $1.95 | +$0.39 (+20.0%) |
| Sales | $157.43M | $146.46M | +$11.0M (+7.5%) |
The second quarter of 2026 looked like a turn: sales up 19.6% to $346.2M and the first adjusted operating profit since 2023, $10.2M. But the reported accounts still lost $16.0M from operations, and the gross margin included $13.3M of one-off tariff refunds.
The growth was batteries and markets abroad; US sales fell about 16%. The next quarter is guided to $310M to $340M at a lower margin, and the shares fell 30.5% the next day.
What it did to the thesisIt looked like a turnaround but supported our negative view. The profit leaned on one-off tariff refunds, the business still lost money on the reported measure, and American sales fell. The next quarter is guided lower, and the data-centre option has no customer.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.06 | -$0.02 | +$0.08 |
| Sales | $346.20M | $341.15M | +$5.0M (+1.5%) |
Q2 2026 revenue rose 46.6% to $876.8M and beat the company's own forecast for the second quarter running. Brands already signed sold 29% more through Pattern than a year before, and sales off Amazon nearly doubled.
Management raised its 2026 revenue forecast again, to $3.42B to $3.46B. But it expects Q3 growth to slow to 31% to 34%, partly because Amazon's Prime Day moved into Q2. The day before, P&G announced it would buy Thorne.
What it did to the thesisThe print showed brands keep selling more through Pattern and that growth is spreading beyond Amazon, but it left open the question the thesis turns on: whether the brand behind much of that growth stays once P&G owns it.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.15 | $0.12 | +$0.03 (+25.3%) |
| Sales | $876.77M | $817.15M | +$59.6M (+7.3%) |
Q2 2026 was the best quarter Paysign has reported. Revenue rose 48.1%, copay programs grew 88.9%, and the company raised its forecast for the year a second time.
Two things flattered it. A $990,000 gain came from cancelling a payment the company no longer owed on a failed purchase, and the tax rate was unusually low. Without them, earnings were about $0.085 a share rather than $0.11. Plasma centers kept falling, to 561 from 607 a year earlier.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the drug-copay business is growing fast and the beat was real even without one-offs. It also showed plasma centers still leaving and earnings flattered by a gain and a low tax rate. The view stays Neutral because the price already assumes years of fast growth.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.11 | $0.06 | +$0.05 |
| Sales | $28.25M | $26.36M | +$1.9M (+7.2%) |
In Q2 2026 revenue rose 9.8% and the recurring part rose 11.0%, up from about 9% in the first quarter. Profit rose faster: spending on product development fell 40% as the smaller staff and in-house AI tools did more of the work.
Management raised the 2026 forecast to 7% to 8% revenue growth and a record 46% cash profit margin. The fine print matters: the raised forecast still implies recurring growth of only 6% to 8% in the second half.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the staff cuts and in-house tools lifting profit, which the case expected. It did not show lasting faster growth: the raised forecast still implies a slowdown later in the year. That leaves the view Neutral, with the price fair for modest growth.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.78 | $2.38 | +$0.40 (+16.8%) |
| Sales | $531.20M | $513.12M | +$18.1M (+3.5%) |
In the first half of 2026, adjusted sales grew 2% at constant exchange rates, and the June quarter alone grew 7%. Novo raised its 2026 outlook to between flat and down 6%, helped by the new Wegovy pill, which passed 265,000 prescriptions a week in July.
The weak spots were price and the pipeline. US Wegovy injection sales fell 22% on lower prices, Novo wrote off DKK 6.3B of failed drug projects, and in a head-to-head trial CagriSema's 15.2% weight loss did not beat Lilly's 15.8%.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the volume half of the case working, through the pill and growing patient numbers, while confirming the price half: US injection sales fell sharply and CagriSema only tied Lilly's top dose. It left the central question, whether volume outruns price, open.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.96 | $0.82 | +$0.14 (+17.1%) |
| Sales | $12.13B | $10.89B | +$1.24B (+11.4%) |
The second quarter of 2026 beat the company's own forecast on every line. Revenue grew 28.3% to $1.25B and operating profit rose 85.9%, lifting the operating margin to 20.1% from 13.9%.
The finance chief then explained where it came from. Gross margin rose only 0.6 of a point, and a tariff refund supplied about a point of that, so the underlying margin slipped. The rest was operating costs held near $275M while sales climbed $275M from a year earlier. The shares fell 7.0% the next day.
What it did to the thesisIt supported our reading rather than the market's. The profit jump came from flat costs meeting rising sales, while the underlying gross margin slipped once a tariff refund is removed. That is a spending peak, not a lasting margin change, so the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.30 | $2.91 | +$0.39 (+13.4%) |
| Sales | $1.25B | $1.20B | +$53.0M (+4.4%) |
Q2 2026 was the fastest growth in four years: buyers up 26%, fintech users up 30%, both halves of the business up about 50%.
The cost showed below the sales line. Money set aside for bad loans was $1.28B against $690M a year earlier, nearly twice the quarter's operating profit, and Brazil's profit barely grew on 59% more sales. Management says its credit measures are near their best and that the losses on new cards fade after 12 to 18 months.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the growth is real and broad, and that it is still not reaching profit: the margin held at the first quarter's low level rather than recovering. Credit looked steadier by the company's own measures, which leaves the recovery the price needs unproven.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $9.19 | $8.65 | +$0.54 (+6.2%) |
| Sales | $10.20B | $9.79B | +$405.8M (+4.1%) |
The first quarter of fiscal 2027, which ended in June, was Dorian's best: $75,926 a day per ship, up 91.1% on a year earlier, as the benchmark freight rate roughly tripled. The strait's closure cut Middle East loadings by more than 70%, and American exports hit a record 7.3 million tonnes in May.
The next quarter is already locked in: 99% of September-quarter days are fixed above $88,000 a day. That peak is what the price is reading.
What it did to the thesisIt is the peak our case is about. The record rate comes from a war closing a shipping route, not from anything Dorian controls, and longer charters pay far less. It confirms the earnings are a windfall the price treats as lasting, so the view stays Unattractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.52 | $2.12 | +$0.40 (+18.9%) |
| Sales | $187.88M | $160.78M | +$27.1M (+16.9%) |
Sales rose because Centrus sold uranium as well as enrichment; the amount of enrichment it sold fell 23%. Profit fell as share-based pay and building costs rose, and a third of what was left came from interest on its cash.
The better news was in signed orders: contracts waiting on the new plant reached $3.0B, up from $2.3B in December. The government's order for its existing Ohio cascade, meanwhile, is ending.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the demand: signed contracts for the new plant grew again. It did not touch the cost or size of the plant, and it showed the old trading shrinking in volume while the government work ended.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.77 | $0.73 | +$0.04 (+5.5%) |
| Sales | $176.10M | $149.85M | +$26.3M (+17.5%) |
The third quarter of fiscal 2026, to 4 July, was the boom in numbers: sales of $330.4M, up 122.6% from a year earlier, and a guide of about $375M for the next quarter. The growth came from ordinary chips for data centres, networking and power.
The AI packaging line, Advanced Solutions, brought in $29.4M, 8.9% of sales, and lost $12.6M. Cash lagged too: over nine months operating profit swung to $124.7M while cash from operations fell 55.7%, the working capital a fast ramp consumes.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the boom is real and comes from ordinary chips, not the AI packaging line, which is still small and losing money. Cash lagged as the ramp ate working capital. It shows peak profits, not a new normal, so the view stays Unattractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.20 | $1.06 | +$0.14 (+13.2%) |
| Sales | $330.41M | $308.50M | +$21.9M (+7.1%) |
In the June quarter IonQ sold $80.05M, up from $20.69M a year earlier. Leaving out companies bought since 2025, growth was 132%, management says. It lost $337.2M from operations, with stock pay of $141.8M.
It raised its 2026 forecast for IonQ alone to $280M to $290M, and to $450M to $460M with the chip factory. Signed orders reached $485M.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the lead in sales and the strong demand from research buyers, and raised the forecast again. It did nothing for the two weak points: the growth still leans on purchases paid in shares, and the margin left after stock pay stayed thin.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.33 | -$0.29 | -$0.04 (-13.8%) |
| Sales | $80.05M | $66.42M | +$13.6M (+20.5%) |
Q2 2026 looked strong: sales up 23%, security up 43%, and gross margin, the share of each sales dollar left after running the network, up to 63.3% from 54.5%.
Underneath, the ten largest customers grew 48% and everyone else 12%. The finance chief said a little under half the quarter's beat came from one-off events such as the World Cup, and the Q3 guide of $184M to $190M is roughly flat on Q2.
What it did to the thesisIt proved growth is back and that customers are spending more, but it showed the growth is coming mostly from the largest customers and one-off events, which leaves open whether it lasts beyond them.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.15 | $0.07 | +$0.08 |
| Sales | $183.32M | $173.94M | +$9.4M (+5.4%) |
In Q2 2026 Eos reported record sales of $68.8M. The problem was where they came from: $55.0M was one project financed by Cerberus and then handed to Frontier, while sales to everyone else fell to $12.7M from about $57M in the first quarter.
It still lost 71 cents at the gross line on each sales dollar, and it narrowed its 2026 sales forecast to $300M to $350M, which needs the best half-year in its history. Orders on its books rose to $807M.
What it did to the thesisIt showed that the growth the case needs is not yet coming from outside buyers: the record quarter rested on the lender's venture, the battery was still sold below cost, and the forecast was trimmed. The promised margin turn remains open.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$1.20 | -$0.19 | -$1.01 (-539.6%) |
| Sales | $68.78M | $68.32M | +$458K (+0.7%) |
The June 2026 quarter was steady. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax and depreciation, the company's main measure, were $120.1M against $107.1M a year earlier, and net income $50.1M.
The news was in the contracts. The Express won a seven-year charter in Colombia from early 2027, a tanker was bought to convert into a new floating terminal for 2028, and the newest ship started work in Jordan. Management raised its 2026 range to $490M to $515M after cutting it in May, and kept Iraq's start in early Q2 2027.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the scarcity case: another ship renewed at a higher rate and the newest one found work at once. It left the main question open, because Iraq's start date held but the work there still waits on a war.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.37 | $0.35 | +$0.02 (+5.7%) |
| Sales | $329.26M | $344.27M | -$15.0M (-4.4%) |
In the June quarter, Q3 of fiscal 2026, sales rose 29% to $138.7M. The hardware half grew 25%, mostly on its own, while IoT Solutions grew 41%, mostly because Digi bought Jolt.
Profit kept pace: operating margin was 16.5%. Management raised its full-year guide again and expects $138M to $142M in the September quarter.
So the growth is real, but roughly two thirds of it came without buying anything, and that two thirds is the part to watch.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the hardware half growing again on its own, which supports the case, but left open whether those orders are lasting demand or customers buying early ahead of shortages.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.75 | $0.66 | +$0.09 (+13.7%) |
| Sales | $138.67M | $132.57M | +$6.1M (+4.6%) |
In the quarter ended June 30, 2026 sales grew 29.6% to $170.8M, and the forecast for the year has now been raised twice, to 31% to 33% growth. Advances 28 days late fell to 2.12% while lending grew 27%.
The warning sign is underneath. Revenue for each member grew 11%, against 36% in the December 2025 quarter, because the switch to a compulsory fee no longer flatters the comparison. From here growth has to come from bigger advances and fees.
Reported earnings of $0.49 a share compare with $4.12 on the company's adjusted basis, the gap mostly warrant revaluations and stock pay.
What it did to the thesisIt backed the business half of the case: sales and lending grew while late payments fell. It also showed the warning behind the Neutral view, since revenue per member slowed sharply once the fee switch stopped flattering the comparison. The legal question over the fee was left untouched.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $4.12 | $3.69 | +$0.43 (+11.7%) |
| Sales | $170.79M | $171.11M | In line |
Revenue grew 21% to $1.34B in the June 2026 quarter, but only 10% came from the businesses it already owned. Higher fuel prices and currency moves added $67.2M, 28% of the increase, and management said most of the quarter's beat against its own plan came from them.
Earnings per share grew faster than profit because there were 7.1% fewer shares. And the full-year outlook implies fourth-quarter revenue growth of about 8.6%, against 21.5% in June.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the volume half of the case, with the businesses Corpay already owned still growing well. It also showed how much help came from fuel prices, currency and buybacks, and the forecast points to a slower fourth quarter, so the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $7.00 | $6.58 | +$0.42 (+6.4%) |
| Sales | $1.34B | $1.30B | +$38.9M (+3.0%) |
In the second quarter of 2026 sales grew 27% to $670M, and adjusted profit reached 15% of sales, up from 3% a year earlier: about 60 cents of each extra dollar of sales became profit. It also made a profit under standard accounting for a second quarter running; last year's $1.01B loss was almost all share awards that vested at the listing.
Chime added about 200,000 members, twice its usual second-quarter pace. The same week brought a 10% staff cut and the finance chief's exit.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the case that Chime turns extra sales into profit and keeps adding members. It also added the risk behind the Neutral view: a staff cut and the finance chief leaving in the same week, while the price already assumes this year's promised profit arrives cleanly.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.07 | $0.00 | +$0.07 |
| Sales | $669.77M | $641.26M | +$28.5M (+4.4%) |
Q2 2026 looked like a strong quarter: revenue up 15.5% and the full-year outlook raised to 12-14% growth. The mix told a different story. Sales to large companies jumped 72.9% while sales to carriers fell 22.8%, and Customer A alone paid 38% of revenue.
Take that customer out and sales to everyone else rose only about 2% in the quarter, after falling in Q1 2026. Profit also went the wrong way: operating profit fell to $9.0M from $10.3M as share-based pay doubled.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the Unattractive view: the growth came almost entirely from one large customer, while sales to everyone else barely moved and carrier sales fell. Profit fell too as share pay doubled. The raised outlook depends on that customer's rollout continuing, and the company itself says its share will change.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.25 | $0.24 | +$0.01 (+4.1%) |
| Sales | $80.10M | $77.28M | +$2.8M (+3.7%) |
On the surface it was another record. Sales grew 53% and earnings per share of $3.76 matched the forecast exactly, with no adjustments at all.
The problem was direction. Sales grew only 4.4% from the quarter before and landed below the middle of the company's own guidance, the first time that has happened since it listed. The shares fell 19.7% the next day.
What it did to the thesisThis is the quarter the whole case is about. Growth slowed sharply and landed below the company's own forecast, which the market read as the end of the story. The thesis reads it as mostly timing, hence the Attractive view, but low conviction admits the next quarter must prove it.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.76 | $3.76 | In line |
| Sales | $1.92B | $1.94B | -$18.2M (-0.9%) |
The second quarter of 2026 looked like a breakout. Sales grew 10.2%, 9.3% without acquisitions; gross margin was a record 34.9%; and 10.2 cents of every sales dollar was operating profit, against 8.4 a year earlier. The shares rose 19.3% the next day.
The cash went the other way. In the first half free cash flow fell 63% to $13.1M while net income rose 72%, because stock on the shelves and unpaid customer bills absorbed the growth.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the margin improvement the bulls point to is real. It also fed the doubt behind the Unattractive view: cash fell sharply while profit rose, because inventory and unpaid bills absorbed the growth. That raises the question of whether the orders were lasting demand or customers buying early.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.80 | $0.61 | +$0.19 (+31.0%) |
| Sales | $153.77M | $145.68M | +$8.1M (+5.6%) |
The June 2026 quarter had one good number and one bad one. For the first time Aeva made a clear profit on what it sold, keeping 35.7 cents of each sales dollar after the cost of making it, against a loss of 49.4 cents a year earlier.
The bad number was growth. Sales of $6.1M rose only 11.3% on a year earlier and fell 2% from March. To land inside its own promise of $30M to $36M for the year, the second half now has to grow 91% to 157%.
What it did to the thesisIt proved one thing the bulls wanted: Aeva can now make a profit on what it sells. But growth nearly stalled, which makes the company's own yearly promise much harder to reach. That gap is the heart of the Unattractive view, and the next quarter has to close it.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.41 | -$0.43 | +$0.02 (+4.7%) |
| Sales | $6.14M | $6.16M | In line |
Q2 2026 looked like another clean beat. Revenue was $442.8M, Zeta made a small profit under the official accounts, and it raised its forecast for the year again.
Underneath, the mix shifted. The cost of delivering revenue grew 54.7%, faster than sales, because agencies bought more social media ads through Zeta, and the share of revenue earned that way rose from 25% to 28%. Shares handed to staff still cost $52.1M, about 12 cents of every revenue dollar.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the growth is real, even without the business it bought. It also showed the two drags the view rests on: lower-margin resold ads are a growing share of revenue, and pay in shares still takes a large slice, so owners get less than the headline suggests.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.21 | $0.20 | +$0.01 (+5.0%) |
| Sales | $442.77M | $420.61M | +$22.2M (+5.3%) |
In the June 2026 quarter revenue grew 23% to $1.91B, and recurring gross profit, what Toast keeps from software and payments, grew 28% to $595M. Operating profit nearly doubled to $152M. A record 9,500 net new locations joined, though spending per location was flat.
Management raised its 2026 guide for the second time, to 23% to 25% growth. The weak spot was hardware: it lost $68M as memory chip prices rose, and management expects that to cost more in 2027 than this year.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the plan on track: the guide rose again and restaurants kept arriving at a record pace. It left open whether rising memory costs and Square's push slow the growth that the price already pays for.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.34 | $0.32 | +$0.02 (+6.2%) |
| Sales | $1.91B | $1.87B | +$35.1M (+1.9%) |
Q3 FY2026, the quarter to June, was the clearest sign yet that the slump is over. Organic sales grew 10%, with controllers and software up 18%, and operating margin rose to 22.3% from 19.5%. Management raised the year's earnings guide for the second time.
Two things held it back. The projects and services business shrank 2%, and recurring sales grew 6%, below management's own hopes. The shares fell 7.4% on the day, because management also said costs, memory chips above all, would hold the next quarter's margin flat.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the recovery is real and led by controllers, supporting the business half of the view. It did not help the price half: projects and recurring sales lagged, and costs are rising, so it left open whether earnings can grow as fast as the price needs.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.49 | $3.38 | +$0.11 (+3.3%) |
| Sales | $2.31B | $2.24B | +$68.3M (+3.0%) |
In the quarter ended June 30, 2026 the circuit-board and packaging business grew 28% and chip materials 17%, and management raised its sales forecast for the year a second time, to $5.55B to $5.65B.
The shareholder's line told another story. First-half net income fell from $381M to $275M as $122M of new interest arrived. The headline, adjusted earnings per share up 53% in the quarter, is measured against a prior year already cut for those costs. Struck the same way both years, first-half adjusted earnings were $476M against $478M.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the operating business is as good as advertised, with fast growth and a raised forecast. It also showed shareholders' earnings shrinking as new debt interest arrived. That is why the view is Neutral: the price leaves no room for those costs.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.19 | $1.07 | +$0.12 (+11.2%) |
| Sales | $1.43B | $1.36B | +$64.4M (+4.7%) |
The second quarter of 2026 was, on the company's telling, its 15th straight beat, and it raised its full-year forecast for the third time, to $270M to $280M of adjusted profit.
The detail pointed the other way. Claims took 34.5% of premium earned, up from 25.7%. Strip out releases from earlier years' reserves and this year's claims rose from 29.3% to 39.5%. Those releases supplied 27.8% of first-half underwriting profit, against 13.2% a year before.
What it did to the thesisIt is the core evidence for our negative view. Behind the raised forecast, this year's claims rose and more profit came from releasing old reserves. The case stays open on whether the crop claims are seasonal, as management says, or a lasting change.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.36 | $2.19 | +$0.17 (+7.8%) |
| Sales | $630.46M | $621.52M | +$8.9M (+1.4%) |
In fiscal 2026, the year to June, recurring revenue grew 12.2% to $1.65B and quarterly growth rose to 12.4% by the fourth quarter. Free cash flow reached 24% of revenue.
Then management forecast about 8% recurring growth for fiscal 2027 and about 7% for total revenue, because interest on client money should fall as rates are cut. The forecast implies growth near 7.5% after the first quarter. Part of next year's profit gain is an accounting change that spreads sales commissions over eight years instead of seven.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the business is steady: clients grew, retention held and growth beat the forecast all year. It did not show faster growth ahead, since the new forecast slows sharply and part of next year's profit gain is accounting. The view stays neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.84 | $1.62 | +$0.22 (+13.6%) |
| Sales | $444.73M | $431.46M | +$13.3M (+3.1%) |
The second quarter of 2026 showed the purchase working and costing at the same time. Adjusted cash profit rose 34% to $1.22B, carried by the newly bought plants in the East, while Texas fell on weak power prices.
But adjusted earnings per share fell 14% to $1.49, 11.8% below forecasts, because the interest and depreciation from the purchase came with the plants. The shares fell 15.5% that day, even though management kept its full-year forecast.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the purchase adding cash profit while its interest and depreciation cut earnings per share, the expected cost of the deal. It left the main question open: the data-centre contract is still unsigned, and the price gives that plan nothing yet, so the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.49 | $1.69 | -$0.20 (-11.8%) |
| Sales | $7.48B | $7.31B | +$169.2M (+2.3%) |
In Q2 2026 card spending through Marqeta rose 32% and gross profit 17%, and it made an operating profit of $3.6M. Customers outside the largest five grew volume 49%.
The forecast was the news. Gross profit growth slows to 5% to 7% in Q3 2026 as Cash App's new cards go to other providers and price cuts on two renewals take effect. The shares fell 7.1% the next day.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed that growth outside Block is real and that the business now makes an operating profit. It also showed Block's new cards leaving faster than expected and pushed the question of how fast profit grows in 2027 into the next forecast. The view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.07 | $0.01 | +$0.06 |
| Sales | $176.00M | $172.96M | +$3.0M (+1.8%) |
Sales grew 62.2% to $201.1M in the June 2026 quarter, above the top of the company's own range, with computing and communications chips up 83%. Management expects about 65% growth in the September quarter.
The market sold anyway: 7.0% the next day and 19.6% more over six weeks, because the outlook trimmed the gross margin and flagged tight assembly capacity and rising costs. On the official accounts it earned 14 cents a share; leaving out stock pay, 53.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the plan: sales beat the company's own range and the next quarter should grow faster still. It also showed the risks, a thinner margin, tight assembly capacity and orders customers can cancel. The price pays for the plan already, so the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.53 | $0.44 | +$0.09 (+20.2%) |
| Sales | $201.08M | $185.50M | +$15.6M (+8.4%) |
Q2 2026 beat forecasts. Sales rose 30.5% to $458.8M, 19.1% before acquisitions, with rocket support up about 50% and engines up 43%. Drones grew 8%.
Profit stayed thin: an operating loss of $1.6M, and net income of $4.4M only because of interest on cash. Management raised its growth outlook for the year to 19% to 23% before acquisitions.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the growth is real and led by rockets and engines rather than drones. It did nothing for the weak point: margins stayed thin and cash flow negative. It left open whether the raised year turns into cash.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.21 | $0.14 | +$0.07 (+50.4%) |
| Sales | $458.80M | $410.36M | +$48.4M (+11.8%) |
In the three months to June 2026, sales grew 11%, led by welding lasers for battery factories. The part of the business holding defence shrank 9%, and defence sales fell from a year earlier for the second quarter running.
The margin looked better than it was. About $4.7M of refunded import tariffs added 1.7 percentage points to it; without them it was about where the guidance for the next quarter sits. A charge for selling the Belarus operation left reported operating profit near zero.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the factory business recovering but left the margin question open, because a one-off tariff refund flattered the quarter. It weakened the drone-laser case, since defence sales fell again even as the first Lockheed systems shipped.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.12 | $0.37 | -$0.25 (-68.4%) |
| Sales | $278.58M | $279.98M | In line |
In the second quarter of 2026 sales were $74.9M, and $72.5M of that was bitcoin mining. Hut 8 still lost $177.1M, mostly because bitcoin's price fell and head-office cost reached $76.1M, two thirds of it stock pay.
The report mattered for the building, not the numbers. Construction began at River Bend, the equipment for its first two halls was bought at fixed prices, and the July lease filled Beacon Point. What it did not bring was a plan to pay for that second phase.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the build: River Bend began rising on fixed-price equipment and the second Beacon Point lease filled the campus. It left open how that second phase is paid for, and showed head-office and stock pay costs running ahead of any rent.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$1.27 | -$0.55 | -$0.72 (-130.9%) |
| Sales | $74.93M | $79.37M | -$4.4M (-5.6%) |
The June quarter was strong where it matters most. Delivery order value grew 24% at constant currency to $4.25B, and the profit kept on those orders rose to 2.3% from 1.8%. Adjusted profit grew for the eighteenth quarter in a row, to $168M.
Rides were weaker: trips grew 28% but revenue only 12%, because Grab paid drivers more and sold cheaper rides. And the reported profit leaned on a one-time $307M gain from taking control of Superbank, a digital bank.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the core of the view: delivery keeps growing and earning more on each order. It also showed the pressure points, with rides earning less per trip and reported profit lifted by a one-time gain. Competition and fee rules remain open, so the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.06 | $0.05 | +$0.01 |
| Sales | $997.00M | $992.61M | In line |
In the June 2026 quarter revenue grew 27.2% to $167.7M and payment volume 38.2%. Much of the growth came from new clients for whom Flywire processes card payments, which is why gross margin fell to 53.4% from 57.0%. Education outside the four big destinations grew over 30%.
Management raised its 2026 growth guide again, to 21% to 27%, but said the second half would slow to the high teens. It now assumes 30% fewer new US student visas this year.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the business can grow through visa cuts, and the raised guide answered the doubt left by the 2025 reset. It left open whether growth outside the big four destinations can outrun the cuts once the processing ramps lapse.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.07 | -$0.02 | -$0.05 |
| Sales | $163.80M | $156.47M | +$7.3M (+4.7%) |
Q2 2026 was a record. Revenue grew 33.7%, or 30.0% without the SE&M purchase, and the building business grew 41.6% with its margin up to 10.8% from 8.9%. Backlog reached $4.55B, up 52.8% in a year.
Management raised the 2026 guide for the second time, to revenue of $4.5B to $4.7B. Its own figures imply the second half earns about 8.6%, well below this quarter's 10.4%, and it credits part of the gain to the timing of projects.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the growth and the signed work behind it, and showed the margin can run well above normal for now. It left open whether that margin lasts: management's own guide expects the second half to fall back.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.64 | $1.14 | +$0.50 (+43.9%) |
| Sales | $1.23B | $1.08B | +$152.0M (+14.1%) |
On the surface Q2 2026 was a record: operating profit of $47.4M on sales of $156.3M. The problem was what made it. $17.9M was a refund of tariffs the Supreme Court ruled unlawful, and $6.4M was a legal reserve released after a settlement. Without them profit was about $23.1M, against $30.1M a year earlier.
Underneath, the two halves went opposite ways. Platform sales grew 5% to $85.0M and paying subscribers reached 3.1 million. Products sales fell 22% to $71.3M on lower volumes and discounts.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the split the thesis rests on: the subscription kept growing while machine and materials sales fell sharply on discounts. The record profit proved nothing, because most of it was a tariff refund and a legal release; underlying profit fell.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.19 | $0.06 | +$0.13 |
| Sales | $156.30M | $159.95M | -$3.7M (-2.3%) |
The second-quarter 2026 report, out on 4 August, showed a business between two lives. Revenue was $24.8 million, all from mining and down from $43.6 million a year earlier, and the loss was $267.5 million, more than half of it an accounting charge on Google's warrants.
The news that mattered came with it: the first Black Pearl hall was handed over two months early and started paying rent. Then, on 24 September, Barber Lake's dates moved: halls now arrive from late 2026 into early 2027, and Cipher pays the first $359.3 million of extra cost.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the landlord model can work: the first Black Pearl hall was handed over early and now pays rent. The later Barber Lake delay and extra cost cut the other way, which is why the view stays Neutral, with the signed rent priced in and the unsigned pipeline not.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.65 | -$0.25 | -$0.40 (-161.7%) |
| Sales | $24.84M | $31.86M | -$7.0M (-22.0%) |
On the surface, the first quarter of fiscal 2027, to June 2026, was the turn investors wanted: sales up 26.8%, and $23.1M of operating profit against a loss a year earlier. But 58% of the growth came from the auction third, the half with no protected position.
Below the operating line it still lost money. Interest took $12.9M and the quarter ended $11.3M in the red. The $42.5M profit figure the company leads with gets there by adding back 4.7 times the loss, the interest included.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the turnaround is real at the operating level but not yet for shareholders: interest still pushed the company into a loss, and its headline profit figure adds back far more than that loss. Most growth came from the less protected auction business, supporting the Unattractive view.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.19 | $0.14 | +$0.05 (+35.7%) |
| Sales | $165.98M | $149.98M | +$16.0M (+10.7%) |
The second quarter of 2026 looked like another record: sales of $3.04B, up 37.7% on a year earlier, and a full-year forecast raised for the third time, to $12.6B.
The detail was in the margin. Gross margin, what is left after paying for the boxes, fell to 62.9% from 65.2%, and the filing says why: more sales went to the largest customers, who get bigger discounts. Other costs grew more slowly, so operating margin still rose. And the forecast now needs about 43% growth in each remaining quarter, faster than June's.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the growth is real and limited mainly by supply. It also gave the evidence behind the Neutral view: margins slipped because the largest customers get bigger discounts, and the raised forecast needs growth to speed up. Leadership and margin, which the price pays for, remain in question.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.02 | $0.89 | +$0.13 (+14.7%) |
| Sales | $3.04B | $2.83B | +$205.4M (+7.3%) |
Q2 2026 was AMD's best quarter yet. Sales rose 50% to $11.54B, and data center sales more than doubled, to $6.72B. PC processors grew 23% while gaming fell 31%.
Profit depends on which measure. The company's adjusted figure was $1.66 a share; the official accounts, after $544M of acquisition costs spread over the years and $503M of pay in shares, gave $1.38. AMD guided Q3 to about $13.0B, and the shares still fell 7.0% the next day.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the server chips and today's AI chips are growing fast, which supports the business. It said nothing yet about the new racks the price depends on, so the view stays neutral until they show up in results.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.66 | $1.62 | +$0.04 (+2.5%) |
| Sales | $11.54B | $11.31B | +$226.3M (+2.0%) |
The June quarter was another record: sales up 104% on a year earlier, and a promise of about 40% more in September. The shares still fell 11.96% the next day, because the promise came with a lower margin, about 72 cents of each dollar against 73.3.
The profit needs reading carefully. Staff are paid about a sixth of sales in shares, the whole gap between the company's own operating margin of 39.1% and the official 22.7%. And a $50.3M tax benefit lifted net income above operating profit.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the growth story: sales doubled and next quarter's promise rests on the new switch reaching volume. It also showed the risks behind the Neutral view: that step depends on one customer, margins are edging down, and reported profit leans on share-based pay and a tax benefit.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.80 | $0.69 | +$0.11 (+15.9%) |
| Sales | $392.40M | $360.85M | +$31.5M (+8.7%) |
The third quarter of fiscal 2026, to June 30, set records for orders and backlog. Sales grew 9%, the third quarter in a row of faster growth, led by data centres and other commercial work, up 54%, while petrochemical sales fell 49%.
Two things spoiled it. The share of backlog deliverable within a year dropped from the low sixties to 54%, and the finance chief said double-digit growth was probably not coming. And gross margin has stopped rising against the same quarters a year earlier.
What it did to the thesisIt proved demand is strong but showed the limit is Powell's own capacity: the record orders will turn into sales slowly, and margins stopped rising. That is why the view is Neutral rather than Attractive. The fall in the shares removed the excess without making them cheap.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.42 | $1.47 | -$0.05 (-3.4%) |
| Sales | $311.74M | $316.70M | -$5.0M (-1.6%) |
In Q2 2026 revenue was $1.935B, up 93%. Sales to US companies rose 149%, and the US government 90%. Customers grew to 1,049 from 849 a year earlier.
Management raised its forecast for 2026 growth to 82%, from 61% in February. The profit is real but flattered twice: share-based pay of $265M a quarter is left out of the adjusted figures, and Palantir pays almost no tax yet.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the business is accelerating: faster growth, wider margins and a higher forecast for the year. The shares jumped the next day, so the view stays Neutral: the report met what the price already assumed.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.41 | $0.34 | +$0.07 (+20.3%) |
| Sales | $1.94B | $1.81B | +$123.2M (+6.8%) |
In the second quarter of 2026, the three months to 30 June, sales rose 12% from a year earlier to $341.0M and adjusted EBITDA, a measure of cash earnings, was $29.0M. Defense sales hit a record $60.1M, and management said orders were up more than 50%.
The weak spot was the mill. It ran at 74% of its melting capacity, short of plan, which the chief executive put down mostly to shop floor execution and equipment reliability.
What it did to the thesisIt showed defense demand growing and orders building, which supports the case. It also showed the mill not yet turning those orders into the earnings the price assumes, which leaves the central question open.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.26 | $0.24 | +$0.02 (+8.3%) |
| Sales | $341.00M | $330.85M | +$10.2M (+3.1%) |
In Q2 2026, the three months to 26 June, sales rose 23% from a year earlier to $294.8M, and the share of each sales dollar kept after production costs rose to 13.9%, from 4.6% three quarters earlier. Ichor made a small profit.
Sales still fell short of the middle of the company's own forecast, because a supplier of flow controllers ran short at the end of the quarter. Cash went out the door as Ichor stocked up parts for the second half, which it expects to be at least 25% bigger than the first.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the recovery working: sales growing with the equipment cycle and margins improving each quarter. It also showed the limits, with a supplier shortage costing sales and margins still well below the level the price assumes, so the central question stays open.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.34 | $0.31 | +$0.03 (+9.8%) |
| Sales | $294.78M | $300.17M | -$5.4M (-1.8%) |
Sales rose 18% to $901.6M in the second quarter of 2026, but only 9% without the businesses BWXT bought. The naval half grew 2%, and its profit before interest, tax and depreciation fell to $126.5M from $133.0M as new government programmes started at lower margins.
The commercial half grew 72%, mostly from acquisitions. Its new orders in the first half fell to $464.0M from $721.6M.
The company still raised its 2026 forecast, to about $3.8B of sales.
What it did to the thesisIt left the case open in both directions. The company raised its forecasts and the backlog grew, but the protected naval half earned less, and the commercial growth was mostly bought rather than won. Neither half yet shows the plan running ahead of the price.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.07 | $1.04 | +$0.03 (+2.9%) |
| Sales | $901.60M | $902.41M | In line |
Headline revenue in the second quarter of 2026 rose 12.1% to $96.1M, and the company raised its long-term target from $500M to $600M a year. The shares rose 12.3% the next day.
Underneath, recurring royalties fell 13.6% to $73.5M as pay-TV customers stopped paying, and lump-sum payments for past use made up the difference. Management says everything outside pay-TV grew 54%, and promises recurring revenue of about $90M a quarter by the end of 2026.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed why the view is Unattractive: the headline growth came from one-time back-payments while the recurring royalties the price depends on shrank. The higher long-term target is a promise rather than signed business, and the recovery management describes still has to show up.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.34 | $0.31 | +$0.03 (+9.7%) |
| Sales | $96.12M | $96.79M | -$670K (-0.7%) |
The third quarter of fiscal 2026, to 30 June, was the best yet. Revenue rose 39.6% to $1.24B and operating profit 59.6% to $178.5M, and the shares jumped 30.3% the next day. Commercial and industrial sales more than doubled, helped by large quick-turning jobs at a 22.5% margin.
Two things sat underneath. Operating profit from homes halved to $16.3M. And $80.4M of the nine months' $469.4M pre-tax profit was gains on the share portfolio, $56.1M of it not yet cashed in.
What it did to the thesisIt proved how strong the boom is, but showed the profit is cyclical and partly not from contracting: one segment earned double its normal margin on quick jobs, homes weakened and share portfolio gains added to profit. The price treats that as permanent, which keeps the view Unattractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.35 | $2.42 | +$0.93 (+38.4%) |
| Sales | $1.24B | $1.08B | +$162.7M (+15.1%) |
The second quarter of 2026 set a sales record, up 21%, and adjusted earnings beat forecasts, as they have for eight quarters. But 7 points of that growth were bought, and profit margins across the businesses slipped to 23.1% from 23.9%.
The bigger change was below the headline. Add-backs, the costs the company leaves out of its adjusted figure, were $1.04 of the $3.15 adjusted earnings per share, a third of it, against $0.44 a year earlier.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the demand but sharpened the doubt behind the Neutral view: a third of the growth was bought, margins slipped in a record quarter, and the costs left out of adjusted earnings grew sharply. The price pays for the adjusted figure, not the reported one.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.15 | $3.07 | +$0.08 (+2.6%) |
| Sales | $8.53B | $8.16B | +$375.6M (+4.6%) |
In the June 2026 quarter Vale's sales rose 19% to $10.5B and its cash profit before the dam charges rose 19% to $4.07B, carried by copper and by higher ore prices. Profit for shareholders fell 35% to $1.38B, after $390M of dam and one-off charges.
Costs went the wrong way. Mining a tonne of ore cost $24.1, up 9%, and delivered to China $61.6, up 18%, on a stronger Brazilian real and dearer ship fuel, so Vale raised its cost forecast for 2026. It bought back $140M of shares and declared $1.7B of dividends.
What it did to the thesisIt showed copper and prices carrying the results while the iron ore business moved the wrong way: higher costs and a smaller premium for quality. That is the side of the argument that keeps the view at Neutral rather than better.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.36 | $0.41 | -$0.05 (-12.2%) |
| Sales | $10.50B | $10.47B | In line |
The second quarter of 2026 showed the growth without acquisitions: sales up 21.6% to $382.5M. Data and applications grew 28.0%, but a quarter of that line in the first half came from Pathos.
Tempus reported a $5.6M profit, yet it lost $75.9M from operations, more than a year earlier; the profit came from paper gains on shares it holds in Recursion and Personalis. The full-year forecast needs second-half growth of 23.2% to 24.7%.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed real growth, but also the objection behind the Unattractive view: the operating loss widened, the reported profit came from paper gains on shares it holds, and a large slice of data revenue came from a related party. The forecast still needs faster growth than this quarter delivered.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.04 | -$0.14 | +$0.10 (+70.0%) |
| Sales | $382.49M | $379.69M | +$2.8M (+0.7%) |
Q2 2026 was a record. Sales rose to $980.6M, up 47.6% on a year, and data-centre sales reached $380.6M, up 164%. Margins held: about 55 cents of each dollar after making the chips.
Management guided the September quarter to $1.14B to $1.16B, 56% above a year earlier at the midpoint, and raised its floor for 2026 data-centre growth to 130%. Elsewhere growth was slower: cars rose 8% and consumer sales fell.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the AI data-centre line is driving the growth and margins held while sales jumped. It left open whether the growth is lasting demand or customers buying ahead, which only the next few quarters can show.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $6.50 | $5.87 | +$0.63 (+10.7%) |
| Sales | $980.60M | $903.30M | +$77.3M (+8.6%) |
In Q2 2026 sales rose 9% to $7.67B, but profit before interest and other costs rose only 2%. Ticketing and sponsorship each grew about 13% to 14%. Concerts' profit fell 14%.
Management kept its promise of double-digit profit growth for the year and pointed to a record $6.4B of tickets already sold for later shows. That promise now needs profit up about 15% in the second half, after 4% in the first.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the ticketing and sponsorship side of the case and left the rest open. The concert business lost ground, so the year's promise now rests on the second half. It said nothing about the court remedy, which no analyst asked about. The view stays neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.05 | $0.66 | +$0.39 (+59.0%) |
| Sales | $7.67B | $7.56B | +$110.5M (+1.5%) |
The second quarter of 2026 looked like a return to form: sales up 9.5% to $1.16B. Without an acquisition and currency, growth was 6.5%. Hospital sequencing chemicals grew 15% outside China, down from more than 20% in the first quarter, while research chemicals fell 7%.
Profit went the other way: operating margin on the company's adjusted measure slipped to 22.5% from 23.8%. The bright spot was more than 95 new top-end machines placed, against a plan of 50 to 60, which is future chemical sales.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the view that the speed-up is narrower than it looks. Growth shrank once an acquisition and currency were removed, the hospital business slowed and margins fell. The many new machines placed are the open question, since they could lift future sales, but the price already assumes it.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.31 | $1.23 | +$0.08 (+6.5%) |
| Sales | $1.16B | $1.13B | +$28.4M (+2.5%) |
In Q2 2026 revenue grew 6.6% to $1.30B. The website tools and payments half grew 11.0%, while the domain and hosting half grew 3.9%. Bookings and recurring revenue each rose 5.7%, and spare cash for the quarter was strong.
Management kept its $1.8B cash target for 2026 and narrowed the revenue range around the same midpoint, about 6% growth. It guided the third quarter to about 5%, the slowest of the year, against strong resale sales a year earlier. Airo's bookings rose fivefold to a $50M yearly pace, still small.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the cash side of the case: the margin widened and the cash target held. It also showed the slowdown continuing in the older half of the business, and Airo is still too small to prove it replaces the products it absorbs. The view holds.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.83 | $1.69 | +$0.14 (+8.3%) |
| Sales | $1.30B | $1.29B | In line |
The second quarter of 2026 looked excellent, with 57.3 cents of each sales dollar left after production costs. But $88.6M of that was expected refunds of tariffs a court struck down, and the first half's $769.2M of profit came with $359.8M of cash consumed.
The telling figures are orders. Contracted orders shrank for a third quarter running, from 50.1 GW to 45.1 GW, though the 1.9 GW won since the last call fetched about $0.36 a watt, above the $0.30 of the older ones.
What it did to the thesisIt weakened the near-term picture but not the argument. Profit leaned on one-off refunds and orders kept shrinking. Yet the newest orders came in at higher prices, the first sign that the new floor on imported panels may lift what buyers pay, which keeps the view Attractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.92 | $2.90 | +$1.02 (+35.2%) |
| Sales | $1.06B | $1.06B | -$6.5M (-0.6%) |
On the surface the June 2026 quarter was a triumph: $5.75 a share against a $1.82 forecast. But $50.5B of it was Amazon marking up its stake in Anthropic, a private company it funds. Nothing was sold, and 66% of pre-tax profit came from outside the business. Analysts expect $1.96 for September, which leaves the gain out.
The part that was earned was strong. AWS grew 36.7% and kept 39.4 cents of each sales dollar as operating profit. The cash went the other way: over the year to June, free cash flow was an outflow of $7.6B, against an inflow of $18.2B a year earlier.
What it did to the thesisIt strengthened the business case, with AWS speeding up and keeping more of each sale. It also confirmed why the view is Neutral: the low price against earnings comes from a paper gain on Anthropic, and heavy spending turned cash flow negative. Whether demand keeps pace is open.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $5.75 | $1.82 | +$3.93 (+215.9%) |
| Sales | $200.61B | $197.03B | +$3.57B (+1.8%) |
Revenue in the quarter to June 2026 rose 16% to $109.4B. iPhone sales grew 22%, Mac 29% and Services 12%, and sales in Greater China grew 22%. Research spending rose 32%, mostly on AI computing.
The profit was flattered: about 2 points of the 50.1% gross margin and $0.11 of the $2.02 earnings per share were one-off tariff refunds. Apple guided the next quarter to 9% to 11% growth and a lower margin.
What it did to the thesisIt showed the business growing faster than in years, which argues against us. But part of the profit was one-off, the next quarter's guide is slower and lower, and the price had already risen further than the profit. The view stays neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $2.02 | $1.89 | +$0.13 (+6.9%) |
| Sales | $109.42B | $109.04B | In line |
In the quarter to June 2026, what customers pay each year rose 32.4% to $1.43B, faster again, from 3.3 million customers. Revenue rose 79%, but mostly because Lemonade now keeps more of each policy instead of handing it to reinsurers.
Claims took 60 cents of each dollar earned. Without releases from reserves set aside in earlier years, it would have been about 67 cents, and pet claims rose with vet costs. The loss was $43.4M, the same as a year earlier. The full-year outlook was held, not raised, and the shares fell 23.7% that day.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the growth and the low-cost model, but it weakened the profit case. Without releases from old reserves, claims cost more than a year earlier, pet claims rose and losses did not shrink. The price assumes mature profits, so the view stays Neutral.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.56 | -$0.56 | In line |
| Sales | $294.40M | $291.01M | +$3.4M (+1.2%) |
On the surface Q3 fiscal 2026 was another record: revenue up 26% and earnings per share up 41%. The growth was almost all price. Mortgage revenue rose 97% on volumes up only slightly, while the software business grew 2%.
Management raised its full-year forecast, but the new number implied a weaker fourth quarter than the third, and the finance chief said part of the raise came from a pricing program not yet approved. The shares fell 17% the next day.
What it did to the thesisIt showed how much of the recent growth is price rather than demand, and the weaker fourth quarter implied in the raised forecast hinted the rival score may already be pressing. It left open the real question, what FICO can charge lenders next year, which is why conviction is Low.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $12.18 | $11.76 | +$0.42 (+3.6%) |
| Sales | $674.19M | $679.17M | -$5.0M (-0.7%) |
In the quarter to 3 July 2026 sales fell 3% from a year earlier. Apple was about 57% of sales, down from 67% two quarters before. The share of each sales dollar kept after making the chips fell to 44.9% from 47.1%, because input costs rose while prices were fixed.
The non-phone side grew 8%, with data centre and car chips growing fastest. Management guided the September quarter to $1,010M to $1,060M of sales.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the case's weak side: phone sales still falling and margins squeezed by input costs, while Wi-Fi, car and data centre chips grew. It left open whether the merger's savings can outrun the phone decline, the question the view turns on.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.08 | $1.03 | +$0.05 (+4.9%) |
| Sales | $934.80M | $925.97M | +$8.8M (+1.0%) |
The third quarter of fiscal 2026 looked strong. Sales rose 69.7% on the ZT purchase, the adjusted operating margin reached a record 8.0%, and management raised its full-year earnings forecast 9% at the midpoint. The shares fell 17.5% the next day anyway.
The market was reading underneath. Sales fell 13.7% from the quarter before, and the next forecast, allowing for an extra week, implies a 7.5% fall per week. Adjusted earnings of $3.31 a share also left out $1.19 of costs, 36% of the figure.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed record margins but showed sales falling from the quarter before, with the forecast hiding a further decline behind an extra week. That keeps the view Neutral: the price assumes AI sales that have not yet shipped.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.31 | $2.77 | +$0.54 (+19.5%) |
| Sales | $3.46B | $3.40B | +$68.0M (+2.0%) |
The June 2026 quarter looked like a turn. Sales rose 22% from the March quarter to $10.5M, and management guided the September quarter to $13.5M, which would be the first rise on a year earlier since the pivot.
Two things temper it. Sales were still 27% below a year before, and the gross profit per dollar barely moved, so the new mix is not yet earning more per chip. The reported loss of $228.2M was mostly a one-off accounting charge from the company's 2021 stock-market listing deal.
What it did to the thesisIt hinted at a turn but proved nothing. Sales are still below last year, the profit kept on each chip has not improved, and the data-centre growth is unmeasured. That keeps the view negative: the price assumes a boom this report does not yet show.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | -$0.04 | -$0.04 | In line |
| Sales | $10.53M | $9.97M | +$558K (+5.6%) |
In the quarter ended June 27, 2026 sales rose 25.4% to $16.13B. Asked whether the PC gain was all price, the finance chief said it was largely price. And because the share count had grown 16.8%, sales per share rose only about 7.4%.
The reported loss of $11.03B is mostly an accounting charge: $12.53B on shares held in escrow for the US government, which grows as Intel's own share price rises. Adjusted earnings of $0.42 a share equalled the whole of 2025.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the view that the recovery is real but bought with price during a shortage, and that heavy share issuance dilutes it. The loss was mostly an accounting charge. Nothing in it showed the foundry winning outside customers, which the price depends on, so the view stays Unattractive.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.42 | $0.22 | +$0.20 (+92.0%) |
| Sales | $16.13B | $14.43B | +$1.69B (+11.7%) |
In the quarter to May 2026, Aehr's sales rose 34% to $18.8M and it made $1.4M, its only profitable quarter of a year that lost $7.1M.
The bigger news was orders: a record $60.7M in the quarter, bringing orders waiting to ship to $100.6M. On that, Aehr forecast sales of $130M to $150M for the year to June 2027, up 160% to 200%, with a profit before tax of about a fifth of sales.
What it did to the thesisIt turned the AI story from promises into orders, enough to cover most of the coming year. It left open the question the price turns on: whether new AI customers follow after this year, and whether the profit margin returns.
| Reported | Estimate | Surprise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $0.11 | -$0.01 | +$0.12 |
| Sales | $18.80M | $18.69M | +$114K (+0.6%) |