← All thesesCPAYNeutralMedium convictionMonday 21 September 2026עברית

Corpay

A payments company for businesses: it sends money abroad, pays suppliers with single-use card numbers, runs fuel cards for truck fleets and books hotel rooms.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑

Growth without acquisitions is 10% and five quarters old, but reported growth of 21% is materially bought and helped by fuel and currency.

Business quality3/4 →

Retention of 93% on a network no rival can reuse is a real advantage, but its price is already moving against determined entrants.

Financial position3/4 ↑

Debt is real at 2.55 times but fully refinanced to 2031 and 2032, covered by about $1.8B of guided free cash flow.

Execution record3/4 ↑

Eight straight beats and guidance raised twice, but a material weakness remediated only last December and a $100M consumer-protection settlement.

Per share capture4/4 ↑

Share count down 7.1% in a year, acquisitions paid in cash, no convertibles, disposal proceeds recycled into buybacks.

Potential2/4 →

Nothing is contracted and the stated market is 33 times a bottom-up build; the upside needs price, capital returns and new products together.

Risk profile3/4 ↑

No customer concentration and four geographies, but a standing FTC order and money-transmitter licensing are one live regulatory dependency.

Valuation3/4 ↓

About 15.5 times operating profit after acquisition amortisation pays for the plan working as described, and not for it working better.

Evidence quality3/4 →

The central claim is corroborated by two independent filers, but no valuation cohort exists and the one independent ranking is paywalled.

The Verdict

We rate Corpay neutral. It moves money for businesses: paying suppliers, sending money abroad and running fuel cards for truck fleets. The business is solid and winning on volume, but each dollar it moves for business payments earns less than it did a year ago. The price is fair: about right if management's growth plan works as described, with no extra credit for beating it and no cushion if it slips. The view hinges on whether that falling price per dollar is the mix of big new clients, which would ease, or the market's going rate, which would not.

The long caseBusinesses are moving supplier payments off paper cheques onto cards and electronic rails; Corpay must keep its volume growing without the fee on each payment dollar falling further.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Corpay sells four things: cross-border payments and foreign exchange, accounts payable automation and virtual cards, fuel and toll cards, and lodging booking and payment. In Q2 2026 those were 41%, included in that 41%, 43% and 9% of revenue, with a 6% remainder of gift and payroll cards.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-13
C03facthigh confidence
Corporate Payments revenue per spend dollar fell from 0.70% to 0.58% as reported in Q2 2026, and from 0.70% to 0.57% on the pro forma and macro adjusted basis - a fall of 19% - while pro forma spend volume rose 43% to $94.6B and pro forma revenue rose 16%.
against this
  • The fall is at least partly mix rather than price: management attributes it to 'new payables and cross-border enterprise clients', and large enterprise payables volume is structurally lower-rate than mid-market card spend, so a cohort effect could stabilise as it matures.
  • The margin consequence is far smaller than the rate fall. Stripping depreciation and amortisation from the segment, Corporate Payments earned 46.8% of revenue in Q2 2026 against 48.4% a year earlier - 1.6 points, not 19%. The lower-rate volume is arriving at close to no incremental cost.
  • Segment operating profit still grew 27% year over year, so the compression has not stopped the segment compounding profit.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-13
C15estimatemedium confidence
Enterprise value of $34.14B against trailing operating profit of $2.20B is about 15.5 times. Excluding the $122.5M disposal gain and the $100.8M FTC charge inside that trailing figure it is about 15.7 times.
derivedEnterprise value from the research pack at 2026-09-13. Trailing operating profit built from filed figures only: fiscal 2025 operating income of $1,994.1M from the company's own XBRL tags, less first-half 2025 of $906.5M, plus first-half 2026 of $1,108.4M, giving $2,196.0M.
against this
  • The enterprise value depends on which of Corpay's borrowings are financing and which are operating. A $2.3B securitisation facility is secured on receivables it also carries, and $8.9B of customer deposits are matched by restricted cash, so a stricter reading of net debt would lower the multiple.
  • Operating profit after the amortisation of what the company bought is the conservative lens by construction; on the cash basis the market actually quotes, the same price is about $14.90 for each $1 of guided 2026 earnings.
current state · 2026-09-13written 2026-09-13
C42inferencemedium confidence
At about 15.5 times operating profit struck after the amortisation of what it bought, the price pays for the current business plus management's plan working roughly as described, and not for it working better: the 2027 consensus implies 14.9% cash earnings growth against a stated algorithm of over 20%.
derivedEnterprise value of $34.14B over trailing operating profit of $2.196B, built from filed figures only (C15), read against the 2027 consensus of $31.43 a share on the 2026 guide midpoint of $27.35 (C16) and management's own mid-term algorithm stated on the Q2 2026 call.
against this
  • Analysts do not model unannounced buybacks and acquisitions, which is exactly where management says the gap between low-teens pre-tax profit growth and over 20% earnings per share growth comes from. The consensus shortfall may be a modelling convention rather than a verdict.
  • Operating profit after acquisition amortisation is the conservative lens by construction. On the cash basis the market actually quotes, the same price is about $14.90 for each $1 of guided 2026 earnings and about $13.00 for each $1 of the 2027 estimate, which is not a demanding price for a business earning 44% operating margins.
  • Trailing enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of 14.0 sits barely above its own six-year median of 13.6, and enterprise value to sales is below its median - so on two of the three series the price is not extended at all.
current state · 2026-09-13written 2026-09-13
C04management claimmedium confidence
Management's stated reason for the fall is mix: 'Corporate payments revenue per spend dollar decreased over the prior year due to new payables and cross-border enterprise clients.'
against this
  • The same explanation has now been available for several quarters while the rate has kept falling, and a mix effect that persists across successive cohorts is indistinguishable from a price level.
  • A listed competitor in the same job publishes its own price falling on the same shape of growth - Wise's business cross-border take rate went 0.51% to 0.39% over eight quarters while volume grew 31% - which is what a market price doing this looks like rather than one company's mix.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-13
C05facthigh confidence
Wise's cross-border take rate for business customers fell from 0.51% to 0.39% across the eight quarters to fiscal 2026 while its cross-border volume grew 31% to $243.5B, and its all-customer take rate fell from 0.58% to 0.52%.
against this
  • Wise is not selling the same product. Its volume is heavily small-business and consumer remittance on a self-service platform; Corpay sells hedging, forward contracts, multi-currency accounts and relationship service to mid-market corporates, which is a different service at a different price.
  • Wise cuts price deliberately as a strategy - its mission is explicitly to lower the price - so its take rate is partly a choice rather than a market clearing level.
  • Corpay still earns 0.57%, roughly 46% above Wise's business rate, which is evidence the two are not yet competing for the same dollar.
historical · FY2026 (year ended 31 March 2026)written 2026-09-13
01

The company

Corpay sells four things to businesses. Payments abroad with currency exchange, and supplier payments by single-use virtual card, were 41% of revenue in the June quarter. Fuel and toll cards for fleets were 43%, and hotel booking and payment 9%.

What it replaces is the slow way of paying: a paper cheque, a bank wire, a fuel receipt typed into a spreadsheet. Cheques in America are falling by both number and value, and cards already carry over three quarters of noncash payments by number.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Corpay sells four things: cross-border payments and foreign exchange, accounts payable automation and virtual cards, fuel and toll cards, and lodging booking and payment. In Q2 2026 those were 41%, included in that 41%, 43% and 9% of revenue, with a 6% remainder of gift and payroll cards.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-13
C34facthigh confidence
The Federal Reserve's 2025 triennial payments study reports 236.6 billion noncash payments in 2024, cards accounting for over three quarters by number, cheque payments continuing to decline by both number and value, and ACH reaching almost three quarters of noncash payments by value for the first time.
historical · calendar 2024written 2026-09-13

How it makes money

It keeps a small cut of each dollar it moves: in business payments, 0.58 cents per dollar of spend in the June quarter, down from 0.70. On fuel cards part of the fee rises and falls with the price of fuel, about 8% of revenue in 2025. What keeps it coming is that customers stay: management says 93% of them do each year.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C03facthigh confidence
Corporate Payments revenue per spend dollar fell from 0.70% to 0.58% as reported in Q2 2026, and from 0.70% to 0.57% on the pro forma and macro adjusted basis - a fall of 19% - while pro forma spend volume rose 43% to $94.6B and pro forma revenue rose 16%.
against this
  • The fall is at least partly mix rather than price: management attributes it to 'new payables and cross-border enterprise clients', and large enterprise payables volume is structurally lower-rate than mid-market card spend, so a cohort effect could stabilise as it matures.
  • The margin consequence is far smaller than the rate fall. Stripping depreciation and amortisation from the segment, Corporate Payments earned 46.8% of revenue in Q2 2026 against 48.4% a year earlier - 1.6 points, not 19%. The lower-rate volume is arriving at close to no incremental cost.
  • Segment operating profit still grew 27% year over year, so the compression has not stopped the segment compounding profit.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-13
C09facthigh confidence
In fiscal 2025 about 8% of consolidated revenue was directly influenced by the absolute price of fuel, about 4% came from fuel price spreads, and late fees and finance charges were about 3%.
historical · FY2025written 2026-09-13
C11management claimmedium confidence
Management reports company retention steady at 93%, Corporate Payments retention at 96% to 97%, same-store sales at plus 1%, new bookings up 30% year over year in Q2 2026, and ten financial institutions closed through the Mastercard channel with about a hundred active in the pipeline.
against this
  • None of these figures is filed or audited. Retention, same-store sales and bookings appear in no 10-K or 10-Q and cannot be checked against any statement; they are management's own operating measures on management's own definitions.
  • Retention measures whether a customer stays, not what it pays. A 93% retention rate is consistent with the same customers renewing at a 19% lower rate per spend dollar, which is what the filed exhibit shows happening.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-13
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (Q2 2026)How it earns it
Vehicle Payments43%Fuel, toll and parking cards for fleets in the US, Brazil and the UK, earning interchange, fees, fuel price spreads and late fees.
Corporate Payments41%Cross-border payments with currency exchange and supplier payments by virtual card, earning the currency spread, interchange and float on customer funds.
Lodging Payments9%Hotel booking and payment for crews and workforces, earning the gap between what the customer pays and what the hotel is paid.
Other6%Gift cards, outsourced card processing and payroll cards, earning transaction processing fees.

Who runs it

Ronald Clarke has run the company since 2000 and owns under 5% of it, counting options. His yearly bonus comes in shares: a third on sales, a third on earnings, and a third on how much he spends on deals, which paid the maximum last year. His big new award pays if the share price clears set levels. Nothing rewards a good return on the money spent. A new finance chief joined in 2025.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C44facthigh confidence
Ronald Clarke has been chief executive since August 2000 and chairman since March 2003. Peter Walker became chief financial officer in July 2025, from Instructure; his predecessor resigned in March 2025, and the chief accounting officer has twice served as interim CFO since 2022.
current state · 2026-02-27written 2026-10-04
C45facthigh confidence
Directors and executive officers as a group owned 5.19% at February 17, 2026, counting 1,093,078 shares they can acquire. Ronald Clarke held 4.64%, including 850,000 options. Orbis (7.33%), BlackRock (7.31%) and JPMorgan (6.25%) are the only holders above 5%; there is one share class.
current state · 2026-02-17written 2026-10-04
C46facthigh confidence
The chief executive's 2025 bonus was paid in shares, not cash: 34% on adjusted revenue, 33% on adjusted EPS excluding fuel, currency, rates and deals, and 33% on the value of deals signed. Deals signed were $3,203M against a $1,000M target, paying 200% on that third and 125% overall. Say-on-pay drew about 54% approval in 2025.
against this
  • The deal leg is measured on transaction value, including divestitures and joint ventures, not on what a deal earns, so it pays for activity; the committee says it can reduce the bonus for overall company performance.
  • The adjusted EPS goal of $21.07 was met almost exactly, at $21.06, so the headline earnings target was not loose.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-04
C47facthigh confidence
On July 22, 2026 the chief executive was granted 300,000 performance shares that vest in thirds if the stock closes at or above $425, $450 and $475 on five trading days before August 31, 2028. His previous long-term grants were 850,000 options in 2021 with share-price hurdles and a 2024 grant of about $16.6M.
against this

The 300,000 shares are about 0.45% of the 66.3M diluted count, small against a buyback that removed 7.1% in a year (C13), so the dilution is not the issue; what it rewards is a share price on five days rather than any operating measure.

current state · 2026-07-22written 2026-10-04
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

A virtual card works only where the supplier has agreed to accept it, and that agreement is negotiated by each card issuer separately. In Corpay's words, other issuers' cards "are not interchangeable". So a rival starts from zero, while a new customer often finds its suppliers already signed up.

WEX, its closest listed rival, describes the same kind of closed network in its own annual report. Management puts the result at 96% to 97% of business-payments customers staying each year.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C10facthigh confidence
Corpay's virtual card merchant network cannot be reused by a competitor: 'Unlike standard point-of-sale purchases, each issuer negotiates directly with the merchant for acceptance, so other issuers' virtual cards are not interchangeable.'
against this
  • It protects only the virtual card line. The fuel proprietary network, which sits behind 43% of revenue, is being attacked by entrants issuing on general-purpose networks where no enrolment is needed at all.
  • American Express and the large banks have built the same enrolment asset, so it is a barrier against fintech entrants rather than against the incumbents Corpay names first in its own competition section.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-13
C41facthigh confidence
WEX describes the same non-portable asset independently in its own 10-K - 'closed-loop networks within our Mobility segment' and 'a global multicurrency payments issuance platform within our Corporate Payments segment' - and names only four other specialised fleet competitors besides Corpay: U.S. Bank Voyager, Radius Payment Solutions, DKV and Edenred.
against this
  • The same sentence in the same filing records the attack: WEX names 'smaller, newer players which have introduced specialized products designed for distinct customer groups' alongside the five it lists, so the short named list is not the whole field.
  • If the asset protected returns, WEX's would not be shrinking. Its Mobility segment adjusted operating income fell from $599.4M in 2023 to $541.1M in 2025 and its Corporate Payments segment from $277.2M to $213.3M, on the same two businesses.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-13
C11management claimmedium confidence
Management reports company retention steady at 93%, Corporate Payments retention at 96% to 97%, same-store sales at plus 1%, new bookings up 30% year over year in Q2 2026, and ten financial institutions closed through the Mastercard channel with about a hundred active in the pipeline.
against this
  • None of these figures is filed or audited. Retention, same-store sales and bookings appear in no 10-K or 10-Q and cannot be checked against any statement; they are management's own operating measures on management's own definitions.
  • Retention measures whether a customer stays, not what it pays. A 93% retention rate is consistent with the same customers renewing at a 19% lower rate per spend dollar, which is what the filed exhibit shows happening.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-13

The threat

The pressure is on the fee. Wise publishes its price for sending money abroad, and its rate for business customers fell from 0.51% to 0.39% in two years. AtoB sells a fleet card that runs on Visa and works almost anywhere, and advertises against the fees older fuel cards charge. None of them yet reaches the suppliers Corpay has signed up.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C05facthigh confidence
Wise's cross-border take rate for business customers fell from 0.51% to 0.39% across the eight quarters to fiscal 2026 while its cross-border volume grew 31% to $243.5B, and its all-customer take rate fell from 0.58% to 0.52%.
against this
  • Wise is not selling the same product. Its volume is heavily small-business and consumer remittance on a self-service platform; Corpay sells hedging, forward contracts, multi-currency accounts and relationship service to mid-market corporates, which is a different service at a different price.
  • Wise cuts price deliberately as a strategy - its mission is explicitly to lower the price - so its take rate is partly a choice rather than a market clearing level.
  • Corpay still earns 0.57%, roughly 46% above Wise's business rate, which is evidence the two are not yet competing for the same dollar.
historical · FY2026 (year ended 31 March 2026)written 2026-09-13
C20factmedium confidence
AtoB sells a fleet fuel card running on a general-purpose network - 'AtoB is powered by Visa, so you can make vehicle related purchases virtually everywhere' - and its own comparison table prices against 'Other cards' charging 50c transaction fees, $5 out-of-network fees, 10c per gallon of account administration fee and 12% late payment fees, against $0, $0, $0 and 5% for its own.
against this
  • A marketing comparison table is the seller's own characterisation of a competitor it does not name, and there is no way to check which incumbent's fee schedule it describes.
  • Riding a general-purpose network buys acceptance and gives up the point-of-sale data capture and direct merchant economics that Corpay's 10-K says its proprietary networks produce, so it is a different product at a different quality rather than a straight substitute.
  • AtoB is private and discloses no volume, revenue or customer count, so nothing establishes that it is taking share rather than merely offering to.
current state · 2026-09-13written 2026-09-13

The rivals: JPM, WEX, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalHow far alongPriced against it
Wise Group plc (Wise Business)Priced against it: Listed abroadOn saleListed abroad
PrivateAtoBPriced against it: PrivateOn salePrivate
JPMJ.P. Morgan Kinexys (private blockchain settlement)Priced against it: One segment onlyOn saleOne segment only
WEXWEXPriced against it: Same productOn saleSame product
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

The two largest card networks carry about $3.14 trillion a year of business card spending. At the 0.58 cents Corpay earns on each dollar, that is a pool of about $18.2B, and its business-payments arm, at about $2.19B a year, has roughly 12% of it. It leaves out fuel, hotels and money sent abroad by bank transfer.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C18facthigh confidence
Commercial card payment volume on the two largest networks is about $3.14 trillion a year: Visa reports $1,739B of commercial nominal payments volume for the twelve months to 30 June 2025, and Mastercard $1,405B of commercial credit and debit gross dollar volume for calendar 2025.
against this
  • The two figures are on different bases and different periods. Visa's payments volume excludes cash volume; Mastercard's gross dollar volume includes it. Adding them gives an order of magnitude rather than a measurement.
  • It omits American Express, which is the fourth largest network globally by purchase volume and a large commercial issuer, and it omits every closed-loop and proprietary network - including Corpay's own fuel networks, which carry volume neither Visa nor Mastercard sees.
historical · FY2025 for each issuerwritten 2026-09-13
C03facthigh confidence
Corporate Payments revenue per spend dollar fell from 0.70% to 0.58% as reported in Q2 2026, and from 0.70% to 0.57% on the pro forma and macro adjusted basis - a fall of 19% - while pro forma spend volume rose 43% to $94.6B and pro forma revenue rose 16%.
against this
  • The fall is at least partly mix rather than price: management attributes it to 'new payables and cross-border enterprise clients', and large enterprise payables volume is structurally lower-rate than mid-market card spend, so a cohort effect could stabilise as it matures.
  • The margin consequence is far smaller than the rate fall. Stripping depreciation and amortisation from the segment, Corporate Payments earned 46.8% of revenue in Q2 2026 against 48.4% a year earlier - 1.6 points, not 19%. The lower-rate volume is arriving at close to no incremental cost.
  • Segment operating profit still grew 27% year over year, so the compression has not stopped the segment compounding profit.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-13
04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Steady

Sales grew 20% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 14% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $2.83BDec 2022: $3.43BDec 2023: $3.76BDec 2024: $3.97BDec 2025: $4.53B12 mo to Jun 2026: $5.02B$2.83B$5.02B
Is it profitable?Strong

Operating margin is 44%, about where it was (44%) in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: 44%Dec 2022: 42%Dec 2023: 44%Dec 2024: 45%Dec 2025: 44%12 mo to Jun 2026: 44%44%44%
How steady is it?Uneven

Yearly sales growth has ranged from +5.8% to +21% over the last 5 years.

Dec 2021: +19%Dec 2022: +21%Dec 2023: +9.6%Dec 2024: +5.8%Dec 2025: +14%+19%+14%
Does it earn good returns?Decent

Each dollar put into the business earns 12% a year after tax, about where it was (14%) in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 14%Dec 2022: 12%Dec 2023: 13%Dec 2024: 12%Dec 2025: 11%12 mo to Jun 2026: 12%14%12%
Is it making cash?Strong

It turned 33% of sales into free cash, $1.64B over the last twelve months.

Dec 2021: $1.09BDec 2022: $603MDec 2023: $1.95BDec 2024: $1.77BDec 2025: $1.30B12 mo to Jun 2026: $1.64B$1.09B$1.64B
Is the balance sheet safe?Strained

It owes $7.46B more than the cash it holds, about 4.0 years of the cash its operations bring in.

Dec 2021: −$4.46BDec 2022: −$5.60BDec 2023: −$5.33BDec 2024: −$6.44BDec 2025: −$7.59B12 mo to Jun 2026: −$7.46B−$4.46B−$7.46B
Are shares being diluted?Shrinking

The share count fell 21% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 2.3% of sales.

Dec 2021: 84.1MDec 2022: 76.9MDec 2023: 74.4MDec 2024: 71.8MDec 2025: 71.1M12 mo to Jun 2026: 66.3M84.1M66.3M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$2.83B$3.43B$3.76B$3.97B$4.53B$5.02B
Sales growth+19%+21%+9.6%+5.8%+14%+20%
Profit
Operating margin44%42%44%45%44%44%
Net margin30%28%26%25%24%23%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Sales and marketing9.2%9.0%9.1%9.6%11%11%
General and admin17%17%16%16%16%16%
Pay in shares2.8%3.5%3.1%2.9%2.3%2.3%
Capital spending3.9%4.4%4.1%4.4%4.4%4.2%
Cash
Cash from operations$1.20B$755M$2.10B$1.94B$1.50B$1.85B
Free cash flow$1.09B$603M$1.95B$1.77B$1.30B$1.64B
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$1.52B$1.44B$1.39B$1.55B$2.41B$3.16B
Debt$5.98B$7.04B$6.72B$8.00B$10.0B$10.6B
Net cash−$4.46B−$5.60B−$5.33B−$6.44B−$7.59B−$7.46B
Returns and shares
Return on capital14%12%13%12%11%12%
Shares (diluted)84.1M76.9M74.4M71.8M71.1M66.3M

What growth costs

Growing has not made Corpay more profitable. Selling costs rise faster than sales as it chases business customers, while most other costs keep pace with sales, so the profit kept from each dollar has stayed about level for five years.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C49facthigh confidence
Per sales dollar, selling expense rose from 8.1 cents in 2020 to 10.6 in 2025 and 11.0 over the four quarters to June 2026; general and administrative stayed between 15.5 and 17.1; stock pay fell from 3.5 in 2022 to 2.3; capital spending stayed between 3.3 and 4.4. Operating margin moved from 40.7% to a 45.0% peak in 2024 and 43.7%. Processing was 21.4 cents in 2025 against 21.9 in 2024.
against this
  • Corpay reports no research and development line and no cost of revenue; its expenses are by nature (processing, selling, general and administrative, depreciation and amortisation), so technology spending sits inside several lines and cannot be read on its own.
  • The years include large acquisitions, Alpha Group from November 2025, which bring their own cost structures, so the ratios mix organic leverage with what was bought.
historical · FY2020 to the four quarters to June 2026written 2026-10-04
C02facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $1,338.8M, up 21% on $1,102.0M, with organic revenue growth of 10% - the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit organic growth.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-13

The last report (5 Aug)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

21%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
6.2%
Growth from the quarter before
against 1.0% the quarter before that
35¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

Revenue grew 21% to $1.34B in the June 2026 quarter, but only 10% came from the businesses it already owned. Higher fuel prices and currency moves added $67.2M, 28% of the increase, and management said most of the quarter's beat against its own plan came from them.

Earnings per share grew faster than profit because there were 7.1% fewer shares. And the full-year outlook implies fourth-quarter revenue growth of about 8.6%, against 21.5% in June.

What it did to the thesisIt supported the volume half of the case, with the businesses Corpay already owned still growing well. It also showed how much help came from fuel prices, currency and buybacks, and the forecast points to a slower fourth quarter, so the view stays Neutral.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $7.00 against $6.58 expected; $3.70 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C02facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $1,338.8M, up 21% on $1,102.0M, with organic revenue growth of 10% - the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit organic growth.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-13
C06facthigh confidence
Macro added $67.2M to Q2 2026 revenue year over year - about $20M from fuel prices, about $10M from fuel price spreads and about $37M from currency - which is 28% of the $236.8M revenue increase.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-13
C07management claimmedium confidence
Management said Q2 2026 revenue came in $45M above its own expectation and that macro contributed about $30M more than expected, leaving about $15M of the beat as underlying performance.
against this
  • Both figures are management's own, measured against management's own unpublished internal plan. No filed document carries either, so the split between macro and underlying performance cannot be checked by anyone outside the company.
  • The filed reconciliation points the other way on scale: Exhibit 5 puts $67.2M of macro in the year-over-year revenue increase, more than twice the $30M management attributes to macro in the beat. They are different measurements, and the larger one is the filed one.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-13
C13facthigh confidence
Diluted shares fell from 71.4M in Q2 2025 to 66.3M in Q2 2026, down 7.1%. Corpay repurchased $1,112.5M of stock in the first half of 2026 against $782M in all of 2025, and 35,659,347 shares for $8.6B since the programme began.
historical · Q2 2026 and FY2025written 2026-09-13
C14estimatehigh confidence
Roughly a quarter of Q2 2026's headline earnings growth was the smaller share count: adjusted net income grew 26.7% while adjusted earnings per diluted share grew 36.5%, a gap of about ten percentage points.
derivedAdjusted net income $464.384M against $366.421M is plus 26.7%; adjusted earnings per diluted share $7.00 against $5.13 is plus 36.5%; the 9.8-point difference is 27% of the 36.5%. Both figures are from Exhibit 1 of the Q2 2026 release.
against this
  • Buying back stock with free cash flow is a real transfer of value to the remaining holders, not an accounting effect, so treating it as lower-quality growth than operating growth is a judgement rather than arithmetic.
  • The repurchases were partly funded by disposal proceeds - $421.7M from PayByPhone - which is a one-off source, so the same contribution is not automatically repeatable at this scale.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-13
C29estimatehigh confidence
Full-year 2026 guidance implies fourth-quarter revenue of about $1.36B, up about 8.6% on Q4 2025, against 21.5% delivered in Q2 2026 and about 16% guided for Q3 - and adjusted earnings per diluted share of about $7.40, up about 22.5%.
derivedFull-year guide midpoint of $5,310M less first-half actual of $2,599.8M leaves $2,710.2M for the second half; less the Q3 guide midpoint of $1,355M leaves $1,355.2M for Q4, against $1,248.2M in Q4 2025. Full-year adjusted earnings midpoint of $27.35 less first-half $12.80 leaves $14.55; less the Q3 guide of $7.15 leaves $7.40, against $6.04 in Q4 2025.
against this
  • About $30M of the deceleration is the EPICS divestiture, which the guide nets out at $40M from a 1 September close. Adding it back, implied Q4 revenue growth is about 11.0% rather than 8.6%.
  • The comparison also gets harder for a reason that is not the business: Q4 2025 was the first quarter carrying Alpha, and the fuel and currency tailwind that added 28% of Q2 2026's growth begins to lap.
  • Management pre-empted the point on the call, stating that the second-half climb was set deliberately and that revenue grows about $100M and earnings over $1.50 a share from Q1 to Q4.
forwardwritten 2026-09-13
What management did with the money

It bought back $1.11B of stock in the first half of 2026, more than in all of 2025. It has made over 100 acquisitions and is now selling small ones, PayByPhone for $421.7M. The return on all that capital has slipped to 8.9% from a six-year norm of 10.1%.

Insiders in 2026Q2: 8 purchases and 16 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C13facthigh confidence
Diluted shares fell from 71.4M in Q2 2025 to 66.3M in Q2 2026, down 7.1%. Corpay repurchased $1,112.5M of stock in the first half of 2026 against $782M in all of 2025, and 35,659,347 shares for $8.6B since the programme began.
historical · Q2 2026 and FY2025written 2026-09-13
C27facthigh confidence
Corpay has completed over 100 acquisitions of companies and commercial account portfolios, and states that acquisitions have been an important part of its growth strategy.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-13
C40facthigh confidence
Corpay sold PayByPhone in March 2026 for $421.7M of net proceeds and a $122.5M gain, agreed in August 2026 to sell EPICS, and management says it has identified another two to four subscale businesses to sell over the next six to twelve months.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-09-13
C26factlow confidence
Return on invested capital is 8.9% on a trailing basis against a six-year prior median of 10.1%.
current state · 2026-09-13written 2026-09-13
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Fair, not cheap. The price pays for Corpay's growth plan working roughly as described, and nothing more. It does not assume management hits its own target.

Share price
$408.22
close,
Price for each $1 of yearly profit
24.5
its 6-year normal 21.4
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
14.0
its 6-year normal 13.6

The question is timed. On 4 November the September-quarter results will show whether the price of each business-payment dollar is still falling, the one number the view turns on.

One cloud has cleared. The FTC case over how Corpay billed fuel-card customers is settled in substance: $100M to repay them, awaiting a final vote.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C03facthigh confidence
Corporate Payments revenue per spend dollar fell from 0.70% to 0.58% as reported in Q2 2026, and from 0.70% to 0.57% on the pro forma and macro adjusted basis - a fall of 19% - while pro forma spend volume rose 43% to $94.6B and pro forma revenue rose 16%.
against this
  • The fall is at least partly mix rather than price: management attributes it to 'new payables and cross-border enterprise clients', and large enterprise payables volume is structurally lower-rate than mid-market card spend, so a cohort effect could stabilise as it matures.
  • The margin consequence is far smaller than the rate fall. Stripping depreciation and amortisation from the segment, Corporate Payments earned 46.8% of revenue in Q2 2026 against 48.4% a year earlier - 1.6 points, not 19%. The lower-rate volume is arriving at close to no incremental cost.
  • Segment operating profit still grew 27% year over year, so the compression has not stopped the segment compounding profit.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-13
C21facthigh confidence
The FTC matter is settled in substance and not yet final. Corpay charged $100M in Q2 2026 for the settlement, the Commission voted 1-0-1 on 17 September 2026 to accept the consent agreement with the chairman recused, and the agreement now goes to the Federal Register for 30 days of public comment before the Commission decides whether to make the order final. The $100M is payable jointly by the company and its chief executive and is to provide redress to harmed business customers rather than as a penalty. The liability was decided before the settlement: a federal court entered summary judgment for the FTC on all counts in 2023, and in 2026 an appeals court upheld it on all counts and affirmed the permanent injunction against the company. Corpay remains subject to that injunction, which bars billing without express informed consent, hiding material information about a charge behind a hyperlink, and deceptive claims about its fuel cards.
against this
  • The matter dates from a 2017 civil investigative demand and a 2019 lawsuit, so it is a legacy exposure being closed rather than a new one opening, and settling it removes an overhang. The money was charged in Q2 2026, so approval releases no further cash.
  • The fees at issue are a small part of the business: late fees and finance charges together were about 3% of fiscal 2025 consolidated revenue.
  1. 2026-09-21editedThe claim described a preliminary settlement subject to Commission approval and the Commission has approved it. The regulator's own release also carries the 2026 appellate affirmance, the redress purpose and the remaining procedure, none of which the claim held.
current state · 2026-09-17written 2026-09-13
How we read the multiple

Buyers pay about 24.5 times a year's profit, a little above its own six-year normal of 21.4. Counting debt too, the whole company costs about 15.5 times its operating profit, the profit from the business itself.

Analysts expect profit per share on the company's own measure to grow about 15% in 2027, below management's target of over 20%. What keeps the price from cheap: the return on money spent buying companies has slipped, to 8.9% from a normal 10.1%.

Against its own history. Close to its own normal on most measures and a little dearer on earnings, so the price assumes neither a turn for the better nor a problem.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C15estimatemedium confidence
Enterprise value of $34.14B against trailing operating profit of $2.20B is about 15.5 times. Excluding the $122.5M disposal gain and the $100.8M FTC charge inside that trailing figure it is about 15.7 times.
derivedEnterprise value from the research pack at 2026-09-13. Trailing operating profit built from filed figures only: fiscal 2025 operating income of $1,994.1M from the company's own XBRL tags, less first-half 2025 of $906.5M, plus first-half 2026 of $1,108.4M, giving $2,196.0M.
against this
  • The enterprise value depends on which of Corpay's borrowings are financing and which are operating. A $2.3B securitisation facility is secured on receivables it also carries, and $8.9B of customer deposits are matched by restricted cash, so a stricter reading of net debt would lower the multiple.
  • Operating profit after the amortisation of what the company bought is the conservative lens by construction; on the cash basis the market actually quotes, the same price is about $14.90 for each $1 of guided 2026 earnings.
current state · 2026-09-13written 2026-09-13
C16factmedium confidence
The 2027 average estimate of $31.43 from twelve analysts is 14.9% above the 2026 guide midpoint, against management's stated mid-term algorithm of over 20% cash earnings per share growth.
against this
  • Analysts routinely decline to model unannounced buybacks and acquisitions, which are exactly where management says the gap between low-teens pre-tax profit growth and over 20% earnings per share growth comes from - so the shortfall may be a modelling convention rather than a judgement.
  • The 2028 estimate of $36.92 implies 17.5% growth on 2027, so the consensus path is not flat: it is below the algorithm and rising toward it.
current state · 2026-09-13written 2026-09-13
C42inferencemedium confidence
At about 15.5 times operating profit struck after the amortisation of what it bought, the price pays for the current business plus management's plan working roughly as described, and not for it working better: the 2027 consensus implies 14.9% cash earnings growth against a stated algorithm of over 20%.
derivedEnterprise value of $34.14B over trailing operating profit of $2.196B, built from filed figures only (C15), read against the 2027 consensus of $31.43 a share on the 2026 guide midpoint of $27.35 (C16) and management's own mid-term algorithm stated on the Q2 2026 call.
against this
  • Analysts do not model unannounced buybacks and acquisitions, which is exactly where management says the gap between low-teens pre-tax profit growth and over 20% earnings per share growth comes from. The consensus shortfall may be a modelling convention rather than a verdict.
  • Operating profit after acquisition amortisation is the conservative lens by construction. On the cash basis the market actually quotes, the same price is about $14.90 for each $1 of guided 2026 earnings and about $13.00 for each $1 of the 2027 estimate, which is not a demanding price for a business earning 44% operating margins.
  • Trailing enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of 14.0 sits barely above its own six-year median of 13.6, and enterprise value to sales is below its median - so on two of the three series the price is not extended at all.
current state · 2026-09-13written 2026-09-13
C26factlow confidence
Return on invested capital is 8.9% on a trailing basis against a six-year prior median of 10.1%.
current state · 2026-09-13written 2026-09-13
C38facthigh confidence
At the 2026-09-11 close of $408.22 the market value was $26.68B. Trailing earnings are 24.5 times against a six-year prior median of 21.4; enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation is 14.0 against 13.6; enterprise value to sales is 6.80 against 7.25.
current state · 2026-09-13written 2026-09-13
Priced against its rivals

Only WEX sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.

Also checked and set aside: American Express Company (a substitute, not the same product); Global Business Travel Group (a substitute, not the same product); Fiserv (a substitute, not the same product).

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Edenred SE, Sodexo S.A., DKV Mobility, Radius Payment Solutions, Coupa Software, U.S. Bank Voyager Fleet Systems, ConectCar, Veloe (Alelo) and Repom (Edenred), ParkMobile, ParkHub, Parking BOXX and FLASH.

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

A proven compounder shifting into business payments, which deserves a higher rating than it has.

We believe

Both halves are true about different things: volume is compounding, but buyers pay 19% less for each dollar moved.

The market reads the 16% revenue growth in business payments as the number that matters. We think it is the cut earned on each dollar of spend, and that is falling.

The case against us: management says the fall is the mix of large new clients, and Wise's own rate fell too, which could mean the whole market is repricing rather than Corpay losing ground. If the price per dollar flattens from the September quarter, the market was right.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
81%
of 16, 1 Sep
Four months earlier
80%
of 15, 1 May
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C03facthigh confidence
Corporate Payments revenue per spend dollar fell from 0.70% to 0.58% as reported in Q2 2026, and from 0.70% to 0.57% on the pro forma and macro adjusted basis - a fall of 19% - while pro forma spend volume rose 43% to $94.6B and pro forma revenue rose 16%.
against this
  • The fall is at least partly mix rather than price: management attributes it to 'new payables and cross-border enterprise clients', and large enterprise payables volume is structurally lower-rate than mid-market card spend, so a cohort effect could stabilise as it matures.
  • The margin consequence is far smaller than the rate fall. Stripping depreciation and amortisation from the segment, Corporate Payments earned 46.8% of revenue in Q2 2026 against 48.4% a year earlier - 1.6 points, not 19%. The lower-rate volume is arriving at close to no incremental cost.
  • Segment operating profit still grew 27% year over year, so the compression has not stopped the segment compounding profit.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-13
C04management claimmedium confidence
Management's stated reason for the fall is mix: 'Corporate payments revenue per spend dollar decreased over the prior year due to new payables and cross-border enterprise clients.'
against this
  • The same explanation has now been available for several quarters while the rate has kept falling, and a mix effect that persists across successive cohorts is indistinguishable from a price level.
  • A listed competitor in the same job publishes its own price falling on the same shape of growth - Wise's business cross-border take rate went 0.51% to 0.39% over eight quarters while volume grew 31% - which is what a market price doing this looks like rather than one company's mix.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-13
C05facthigh confidence
Wise's cross-border take rate for business customers fell from 0.51% to 0.39% across the eight quarters to fiscal 2026 while its cross-border volume grew 31% to $243.5B, and its all-customer take rate fell from 0.58% to 0.52%.
against this
  • Wise is not selling the same product. Its volume is heavily small-business and consumer remittance on a self-service platform; Corpay sells hedging, forward contracts, multi-currency accounts and relationship service to mid-market corporates, which is a different service at a different price.
  • Wise cuts price deliberately as a strategy - its mission is explicitly to lower the price - so its take rate is partly a choice rather than a market clearing level.
  • Corpay still earns 0.57%, roughly 46% above Wise's business rate, which is evidence the two are not yet competing for the same dollar.
historical · FY2026 (year ended 31 March 2026)written 2026-09-13
C42inferencemedium confidence
At about 15.5 times operating profit struck after the amortisation of what it bought, the price pays for the current business plus management's plan working roughly as described, and not for it working better: the 2027 consensus implies 14.9% cash earnings growth against a stated algorithm of over 20%.
derivedEnterprise value of $34.14B over trailing operating profit of $2.196B, built from filed figures only (C15), read against the 2027 consensus of $31.43 a share on the 2026 guide midpoint of $27.35 (C16) and management's own mid-term algorithm stated on the Q2 2026 call.
against this
  • Analysts do not model unannounced buybacks and acquisitions, which is exactly where management says the gap between low-teens pre-tax profit growth and over 20% earnings per share growth comes from. The consensus shortfall may be a modelling convention rather than a verdict.
  • Operating profit after acquisition amortisation is the conservative lens by construction. On the cash basis the market actually quotes, the same price is about $14.90 for each $1 of guided 2026 earnings and about $13.00 for each $1 of the 2027 estimate, which is not a demanding price for a business earning 44% operating margins.
  • Trailing enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of 14.0 sits barely above its own six-year median of 13.6, and enterprise value to sales is below its median - so on two of the three series the price is not extended at all.
current state · 2026-09-13written 2026-09-13
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • The price keeps falling. If the fall per dollar is the market's going rate rather than mix, revenue keeps growing ever more slowly than volume.
  • Growth borrowed from fuel. Higher fuel prices and currency moves supplied 28% of June's revenue increase, and both can reverse.
  • Profit after adjustments. The earnings per share the company guides to sit 39% above the official figure, after $644M of add-backs.
  • The chief executive is named. He is jointly liable for the FTC's $100M, and a federal appeals court upheld the judgment against him.
  • Lower interest rates. Corpay earns interest on $8.92B of customer money, and falling rates cut 1.8 points from business-payments growth in June.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C03facthigh confidence
Corporate Payments revenue per spend dollar fell from 0.70% to 0.58% as reported in Q2 2026, and from 0.70% to 0.57% on the pro forma and macro adjusted basis - a fall of 19% - while pro forma spend volume rose 43% to $94.6B and pro forma revenue rose 16%.
against this
  • The fall is at least partly mix rather than price: management attributes it to 'new payables and cross-border enterprise clients', and large enterprise payables volume is structurally lower-rate than mid-market card spend, so a cohort effect could stabilise as it matures.
  • The margin consequence is far smaller than the rate fall. Stripping depreciation and amortisation from the segment, Corporate Payments earned 46.8% of revenue in Q2 2026 against 48.4% a year earlier - 1.6 points, not 19%. The lower-rate volume is arriving at close to no incremental cost.
  • Segment operating profit still grew 27% year over year, so the compression has not stopped the segment compounding profit.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-13
C05facthigh confidence
Wise's cross-border take rate for business customers fell from 0.51% to 0.39% across the eight quarters to fiscal 2026 while its cross-border volume grew 31% to $243.5B, and its all-customer take rate fell from 0.58% to 0.52%.
against this
  • Wise is not selling the same product. Its volume is heavily small-business and consumer remittance on a self-service platform; Corpay sells hedging, forward contracts, multi-currency accounts and relationship service to mid-market corporates, which is a different service at a different price.
  • Wise cuts price deliberately as a strategy - its mission is explicitly to lower the price - so its take rate is partly a choice rather than a market clearing level.
  • Corpay still earns 0.57%, roughly 46% above Wise's business rate, which is evidence the two are not yet competing for the same dollar.
historical · FY2026 (year ended 31 March 2026)written 2026-09-13
C06facthigh confidence
Macro added $67.2M to Q2 2026 revenue year over year - about $20M from fuel prices, about $10M from fuel price spreads and about $37M from currency - which is 28% of the $236.8M revenue increase.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-13
C12facthigh confidence
Guided 2026 adjusted earnings per diluted share of $27.15 to $27.55 sit 39% above guided official earnings of $19.50 to $19.90. The $644M of pre-tax adjustments is $330M of amortisation, $150M of stock compensation and $286M of other items, less a $122M disposal gain.
against this
  • The amortisation being added back is of intangible assets from acquisitions already paid for in cash, and Corpay's organic growth of 10% clears its own mid-term target without any acquisition at all - so the add-back is not obviously a recurring cost of maintaining the growth rate.
  • Management's stated alternative use of the same capital is buying back stock, which would produce the same earnings growth and create no amortisation whatever, so the charge is a consequence of which option is chosen rather than of the business model.
  • The gap narrows as the acquired intangibles run off: it was $6.35 a share in 2025 against $7.65 guided for 2026, but the 2026 figure carries a full year of Alpha where 2025 carried a quarter.
forwardwritten 2026-09-13
C43facthigh confidence
The chief executive is a named party to the FTC matter, not only the company. Ronald Clarke is jointly liable for the $100M, a federal appeals court affirmed the judgment against him in 2026 on all but one count while vacating the injunction as to him, and he has agreed not to oppose its reimposition.
against this
  • A chief executive named personally in an enforcement action over conduct the company was found liable for is the ordinary shape of such a case rather than a separate finding about him, and the appeal went partly his way: the injunction against him was vacated.
  • The conduct at issue ran from before the 2019 lawsuit and concerns a fuel-card fee line worth about 3% of revenue, so it says little about how the rest of a company assembled from over a hundred acquisitions is run.
current state · 2026-09-17written 2026-09-21
C31factmedium confidence
Corpay held $8.92B of customer deposits and $7.00B of restricted cash at 30 June 2026, and earns float revenue on invested customer funds. Falling interest rates were a 180 basis point drag on Corporate Payments organic growth in Q2 2026, after 200 basis points in Q4 2025.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-13
What we still do not know
  • Whether the falling price per dollar is big new clients paying less, as management says, or the going rate for the whole market.
  • Whether the hundred-odd acquisitions earned more than the debt that paid for them.
  • How much business card spending Corpay's cards can actually reach, since each supplier must first agree to take them.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C04management claimmedium confidence
Management's stated reason for the fall is mix: 'Corporate payments revenue per spend dollar decreased over the prior year due to new payables and cross-border enterprise clients.'
against this
  • The same explanation has now been available for several quarters while the rate has kept falling, and a mix effect that persists across successive cohorts is indistinguishable from a price level.
  • A listed competitor in the same job publishes its own price falling on the same shape of growth - Wise's business cross-border take rate went 0.51% to 0.39% over eight quarters while volume grew 31% - which is what a market price doing this looks like rather than one company's mix.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-13
C05facthigh confidence
Wise's cross-border take rate for business customers fell from 0.51% to 0.39% across the eight quarters to fiscal 2026 while its cross-border volume grew 31% to $243.5B, and its all-customer take rate fell from 0.58% to 0.52%.
against this
  • Wise is not selling the same product. Its volume is heavily small-business and consumer remittance on a self-service platform; Corpay sells hedging, forward contracts, multi-currency accounts and relationship service to mid-market corporates, which is a different service at a different price.
  • Wise cuts price deliberately as a strategy - its mission is explicitly to lower the price - so its take rate is partly a choice rather than a market clearing level.
  • Corpay still earns 0.57%, roughly 46% above Wise's business rate, which is evidence the two are not yet competing for the same dollar.
historical · FY2026 (year ended 31 March 2026)written 2026-09-13
C26factlow confidence
Return on invested capital is 8.9% on a trailing basis against a six-year prior median of 10.1%.
current state · 2026-09-13written 2026-09-13
C27facthigh confidence
Corpay has completed over 100 acquisitions of companies and commercial account portfolios, and states that acquisitions have been an important part of its growth strategy.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-13
C10facthigh confidence
Corpay's virtual card merchant network cannot be reused by a competitor: 'Unlike standard point-of-sale purchases, each issuer negotiates directly with the merchant for acceptance, so other issuers' virtual cards are not interchangeable.'
against this
  • It protects only the virtual card line. The fuel proprietary network, which sits behind 43% of revenue, is being attacked by entrants issuing on general-purpose networks where no enrolment is needed at all.
  • American Express and the large banks have built the same enrolment asset, so it is a barrier against fintech entrants rather than against the incumbents Corpay names first in its own competition section.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-13

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveThe price erosion slows while volume keeps winning

    It needs all of:

    • ○The price earned on each business-payment dollar falls less than 10% a year through 2027, while growth from existing businesses stays above 8%.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
    • ○The return on invested money climbs back above its 10.1% six-year norm, earning more than the debt that funds it.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
  2. Neutral→UnattractiveErosion or retention gives way

    It needs any of:

    • ○Fewer than 90% of customers stay each year, or fewer than 94% in business payments.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
    • ○Fuel-card revenue from existing businesses shrinks for two quarters running.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
We would also be wrong if
  • The price earned on each business-payment dollar keeps falling more than 10% a year through 2027.
  • Growth from the businesses it already owns settles below 8% for two quarters running.

What is coming

  • 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether Corporate Payments revenue per spend dollar stops falling, organic growth holds, and the steep fourth-quarter slowdown the guide implies is confirmed or raised.
Every dated event ahead
  • 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether Corporate Payments revenue per spend dollar stops falling, organic growth holds, and the steep fourth-quarter slowdown the guide implies is confirmed or raised.
  • 31 December 2026 Buyback authorisation expires: Whether the board renews and enlarges it, the first test of management's plan to put about $15B into buybacks or deals.
  • February 2027 Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance: Whether 2027 guidance reaches the 15% earnings growth analysts expect without fuel and currency help, and how much of it is the buyback.
  • July 2028 Option to buy the rest of the AvidXchange partnership: Whether Corpay pays about 2.5 times invested capital for the rest, or lets TPG sell with a guaranteed return: a test of deal discipline.
  • 31 August 2028 CEO share-price award period ends: Whether the stock clears the hurdles; it tells you what the chief executive is paid for, not whether revenue per spend dollar recovered.
Since we wrote this
Written
13 Sep
Price the thesis read
$408.22
11 Sep
  • 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
  • 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
  • 21 SepNewsFTC settlement accepted; chief executive named. View heldThe $100M repays harmed customers, and the liability was already lost on appeal. Neither answers what the view turns on: whether the price of each payment dollar stops falling.
  • 13 SepThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionSpend through its business-payments arm grew 43% while revenue grew 16%: volume is winning, but each dollar moved earns less.

Also checked 1 time with nothing new to act on.

Sources 16

Where this came from

Sources - 16

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-27
    Item 1 business and competition, the virtual card acceptance mechanism, the proprietary network description, fuel price and late fee revenue shares, the FTC matter, the material weakness and its remediation, the buyback programme, the absence of any customer concentration disclosure
    backsC01C09C10C13C17C21C27C30C32C39C44C48C49
  2. S02primarycompany filing2026-08-10
    the segment note that places the $100.8M FTC charge inside Vehicle Payments, and segment expense detail the release does not carry
    backsC22C23C48C49
  3. S03primarycompany filing2026-08-05
    the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow; Exhibit 2's revenue per spend dollar; Exhibit 5's macro reconciliation; Exhibit 1's adjusted earnings bridge; Exhibit 7's guidance reconciliation
    backsC01C02C03C04C06C08C12C13C21C22C23C31C32C36C40
  4. S04primarytranscript2026-08-05
    Corpay Q2 2026 earnings call transcript
    management's retention, bookings and same-store sales figures, the $600 billion market and $15B capital statements, the Mastercard channel count, the macro contribution to the beat; and nine analysts' questions, which are a separate origin from the answers
    So the portfolio repositioning you know, gives us a $600 billion revenue TAM for, you know, a $5 billion company today. So, look, it certainly gives us the potential to at least 10x this company to save $50 billion, over time. ... Retention remaining steady at 93%. Year over year sales or new bookings terrific, growing 30% and same store sales, in the plus column, +1%. ... Our line average is 93. That business is, you know, closer to 96% or 97%. ... We are now at 10. FIs that have been closed. On the last report I saw, we have got 100 active additional FIs in the pipeline.
    backsC07C11C16C17C24C25C31C40
  5. S05primarycompany filing2026-02-04
    the original 2026 guidance with its $2.90 a gallon fuel assumption and ~70M share count, FY2025 results, and the Q4 2025 float compression figure
    backsC08C31
  6. S06primarycompany filing2026-05-22
    facility sizes, the five-year extensions to 2031, the Term Loan B cut to $2.9B maturing November 2032, and the 10 basis point rate reduction
    backsC24
  7. S07primarycompany filing2026-02-13
    a competitor's own naming of Corpay, its description of why buyers choose a specialised card over a bank's, its closed-loop network language, and three years of segment adjusted operating income
    backsC35C39C41
  8. S08primarycompany filing2025-11-06
    commercial payments volume of $1,739B for the twelve months to 30 June 2025, with its US and international split and its definition
    backsC18C33
  9. S09primarycompany filing2026-02
    commercial credit and debit gross dollar volume of $1,405B, up 11% in local currency, on 174 million cards up 14%
    backsC18C33
  10. S10primarycompany filing2026-06-25
    the eight-quarter cross-border take rate series split personal and business, cross-border volume of $243.5B up 31%, and net revenue of $2,502.8M
    backsC05
  11. S11primaryother2026-09-13
    a named fuel-card entrant's own statement that it needs no proprietary acceptance network, and its fee table pricing directly against incumbent transaction, out-of-network, administration and late fees
    AtoB is powered by Visa, so you can make vehicle related purchases virtually everywhere and comes with some of the best discounts in the industry, without any limits on how much you can save. ... Miles ahead of the competition AtoB Flex AtoB Unlimited Other cards Account set-up fee $35 $35 $35-$50 Transaction fees $0 $0 50¢ Out-of-network fee $0 $0 $5 Account administration fee $0 $0 10¢/gal Late payment fee 5% 0% 12%
    backsC20
  12. S12primarygovernment data2026-07-01
    the independent measure of the secular change, and the figure that cuts against it - ACH reaching almost three quarters of noncash payments by value
    The study shows that the total number of noncash payments made by consumers and businesses increased to 236.6 billion in 2024. ... Cards accounted for over three quarters of payments by number. ... In 2024, ACH's share of noncash payments by value reached almost three quarters for the first time. ... The data also show that check payments and ATM cash withdrawals continued to decline by both number and value.
    backsC34
  13. S13primaryvendor data2026-09-13
    Research pack, frozen at content/CPAY/research-pack.json
    price, market value, the valuation series against its six-year medians, analyst consensus and its drift, the 2027 and 2028 estimates, short interest from FINRA, insider filings with the base rate, and the cohort result
    backsC16C26C28C37C38C39
  14. S14primaryregulator2026-09-17
    the regulator's own account of the settlement: the Commission vote, the Federal Register and comment procedure before the order is final, that the payment is redress rather than a penalty, the 2026 appellate affirmance on all counts against the company, and the chief executive's position as a named party
    FleetCor and its CEO will pay $100 million to settle a Federal Trade Commission administrative action ... In 2026, a federal appeals court upheld the summary judgment against FleetCor on all counts and affirmed the permanent injunction against it. The court affirmed the judgment against Clarke on all but one count and vacated the injunction as to Clarke. ... FleetCor and Clarke will pay $100 million, which will be used to provide redress to the company's business customers harmed by its practices. FleetCor and Clarke have also agreed not to oppose reimposition of a federal court injunction against Clarke. The Commission vote to accept the consent agreement was 1-0-1.
    backsC21C43
  15. S15primarycompany filing2026-04-10
    beneficial ownership as of February 17, 2026, the CEO's bonus metrics, weights, goals and 2025 payout, the 2021 and 2024 CEO equity grants, the 2025 chief financial officer transitions and the 2025 say-on-pay result
    backsC44C45C46C47
  16. S16primarycompany filing2026-07-24
    the July 22, 2026 grant of 300,000 stock-price-hurdle PSUs to the chief executive and 28,213 to Armando Netto, the three hurdles and the performance period to August 31, 2028
    backsC47
Rendered from content/CPAY/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-09-21. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.