Tempus AI
Sequences cancer tumours to tell a doctor which drugs a patient's tumour may respond to, then licenses the anonymised results to drugmakers designing trials.
Our viewUnattractive Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↓
Not 4: the 83.4% of 2025 was bought, the data line leans on a related party, and Q2 2026 grew 21.6% with nothing acquired.
Business quality3/4 →
Not 4: the network is the largest of its kind, but its only quantified outcomes are the company's own and rivals ship today.
Financial position3/4 ↑
Not 4: it is not net cash and operations still consume cash. Not 2: nothing matures before 2030 and cash interest is close to nothing.
Execution record3/4 →
Beat the consensus profit figure in all eight quarters since listing and raised the 2026 guide, but two years is too short to score higher.
Per share capture2/4 ↓
Share-based pay is 14.6% of revenue, three acquisitions were share-funded, and a fourth adds a tenth to a sixth more. No buyback offsets it.
Potential2/4 →
Not 3: the largest committed contract expires this year at a customer's option, and the $1.1B backlog is cancellable for convenience and part optional.
Risk profile2/4 →
Not 3: one counterparty's renewal decision, due inside the horizon, carries the largest named commitment in the file, and a second is a related party.
Valuation2/4 ↓
Not 3: the price needs a margin never earned on triple the revenue. Not 1: a listed rival already earns positive operating margins.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Everything central is filed, current and corroborated outside - but the moat's only measures are management's and the price conclusion is my arithmetic.
The bet · 2-3 years
Priced for success1.2×
If it works 1.2× · if it fails you keep about 54%.
The Verdict
We rate Tempus unattractive. It runs one of America's largest cancer-testing laboratories, and every test also feeds a data library drugmakers pay to use. The business is mixed: much of last year's growth was bought, and a quarter of the data sales come from a company its own founder chairs. The price needs sales to roughly triple by 2029 at a profit margin Tempus has never earned, so it is full, not cheap. As a bet it is fragile: if management's plan works, the shares would be worth only a little more than today; if it fails, about half is left.
The long caseMost cancer patients still get no genomic test, so testing has room to spread, and every test adds data drugmakers pay for; Tempus must turn that into profit.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Tempus runs clinical gene-sequencing tests on cancer tumours for treating doctors, then licenses the de-identified data those tests create to drugmakers.
C02facthigh confidence
Revenue was $1.27B in 2025, up 83.4% on 2024.
C03facthigh confidence
Q4 2025 revenue grew 83.0%, of which 33.5 percentage points were organic - the rest came from buying Ambry Genetics.
C09facthigh confidence
Related-party revenue was $43.7M of the $180.2M Data and applications line in the first half of 2026 - 24.2% of it.
C10facthigh confidence
The related party is Pathos AI, whose Executive Chairman and co-founder is Tempus's own founder and chief executive.
C38estimatemedium confidence
At $10.99 of enterprise value for each dollar of sales, the price needs roughly a 25% operating margin on about $3.1B of revenue in 2029 - a margin Tempus has never earned.
derivedEnterprise value of $15.74B from the pack refreshed on 26 September 2026, at the 25 September close of $85.01. Management's stated 25% growth for three years applied to 2026 guidance of $1.6B gives about $3.1B in 2029 (assumption A01). Holding today's enterprise value and applying 20 times operating profit (assumption A02) requires $787M of operating profit, which is 25.2% of $3.1B. The best operating margin Tempus has reported is minus 16.7%, in Q4 2025. Claims C36, C41, C06.
against this
- Caris, the closest listed comparison, already earns a positive operating margin on the same kind of business, so the required margin is not unheard of in this industry.
- Gross margin is above 64% and rising, so the margin has to come from operating leverage rather than from pricing, and the company's adjusted profit measure has improved in each of the last several quarters.
- 2026-09-26editedre-struck on the pack refreshed 26 September 2026: the price rose from the $66.17 close of 24 August to $85.01, so enterprise value per dollar of sales is $10.99 rather than $8.70 and the margin the price needs on 2029 revenue is about 25% rather than 20%
C41management claimmedium confidence
Management says it expects about 25% revenue growth not just in 2026 but over three years, taking the business to roughly $3B.
against this
- Q2 2026 grew 21.6%, below that rate, and the hereditary half of diagnostics grew 5%.
- The chief executive attached no volume assumption to the figure, and the chief financial officer said on the same call that nothing about volume was implied by it.
C52management claimlow confidence
The chief executive said the tumour-only version of xT will be billed at the $4,500 Medicare price from 1 January, adding '$80 million to $100 million of revenue in margin benefit', and that approval and pricing of the liquid biopsy, expected in the second half of 2027, would move it from about $3,200 to the mid-to-high $7,000s, worth '$250 million to $300 million'.
against this
- A Medicare list price is not what Tempus is paid across its tests: the average reimbursement was about $1,600 in 2025 (C17) and it had been paid on only about 55% of the oncology tests it ran in 2023 and 2024 (C18).
- The liquid biopsy has no approval yet and he said the timing is 'unknown' between the third and fourth quarter of 2027; neither figure appears in any filing or in the guide.
The company
When someone is diagnosed with cancer, the oncologist has to choose a treatment. Tempus reads the DNA and RNA of the tumour and sends back a report naming the drugs and trials that tumour is likely to respond to. Its main test won FDA approval in 2023.
It sequenced about 367,500 cancer samples in 2025, against 170,300 cases at Caris, a rival. About 205 sales representatives sell into more than 5,000 hospitals and clinics.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Tempus runs clinical gene-sequencing tests on cancer tumours for treating doctors, then licenses the de-identified data those tests create to drugmakers.
C22facthigh confidence
Tempus's xT test was FDA-approved in April 2023, given premium Medicare pricing from 1 July 2024, and approved in a tumour-only version during Q2 2026.
C16facthigh confidence
Tempus sequenced about 367,500 clinical oncology samples in 2025, against about 31,000 in 2018.
C23factmedium confidence
Caris names Tempus and Roche's Foundation Medicine as its rivals in tissue profiling and reports about 170,300 clinical cases in 2025 against Tempus's 367,500 samples.
C49facthigh confidence
Tempus sells through about 205 clinical sales representatives into more than 5,000 healthcare sites, connected by more than 700 data links.
How it makes money
Two ways. Medicare or an insurer pays for each test, about $1,600 on average in 2025, although Tempus was paid on only about 55% of the tests it ran in 2023 and 2024.
Each test also yields an anonymised record linking the tumour to the patient's treatment and outcome, which drugmakers license in bulk. Data and applications brought in $93.2M in the June quarter.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C17facthigh confidence
Average reimbursement for an oncology sequencing test was about $1,600 in 2025, up from $1,510 in 2024 and $1,450 in 2023.
C18facthigh confidence
Tempus had been paid on about 55% of the clinical oncology sequencing tests it performed during 2023 and 2024.
C01facthigh confidence
Tempus runs clinical gene-sequencing tests on cancer tumours for treating doctors, then licenses the de-identified data those tests create to drugmakers.
C13facthigh confidence
Data and applications revenue was $93.2M in Q2 2026, up 28.0%, with the data-licensing product inside it up 36%.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (FY2025) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Oncology and other testing | 46.6% | Tumour sequencing and other cancer tests ordered by doctors, paid by Medicare, insurers and drugmakers; the data the business licenses comes from these tests. |
| Hereditary testing | 28.5% | Inherited cancer-risk and rare-disease tests from Ambry, bought in 2025, ordered mainly by genetic counsellors and paid by insurers. |
| Data and applications | 24.9% | Licences of de-identified patient data to drugmakers, plus trial matching and algorithms; a quarter of it in 2026 came from a related party. |
Who runs it
Eric Lefkofsky founded Tempus in 2015 and still runs it; James Rogers has run its finances since 2021. Lefkofsky owns about a fifth of the shares but controls the vote through special shares. Most executive pay rides on sales growth, counting companies bought, and on the share price; nothing rewards cash or profit per share. In 2025 the board paid most of a bonus whose profit goal was missed.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C62facthigh confidence
Eric Lefkofsky founded Tempus in 2015 and has been its chief executive and a director since; James Rogers has been chief financial officer since April 2021, and Ryan Fukushima, chief operating officer from 2015, became chief executive of the data business in February 2026 after running Pathos AI from 2021 to May 2025.
C63facthigh confidence
At March 27, 2026 Eric Lefkofsky beneficially owned 37,262,801 Class A shares (21.4%) and all 5,043,789 Class B shares, which carry 30 votes each, for 57.9% of the vote; the 13 directors and executive officers together held 22.1% of Class A and 58.3% of the vote.
against this
Since the record date he has sold 700,000 shares under a Rule 10b5-1 plan (C42), and 10,000,000 of the Class A shares sit in a family trust his wife administers, so his economic stake is smaller than the voting figure suggests.
C64facthigh confidence
Tempus's 2025 bonus paid half on revenue excluding Ambry of $900M and half on positive adjusted EBITDA; revenue reached $909M but adjusted EBITDA was minus $7.4M, and the committee still paid 90% of target, in fully vested shares, citing acquisition costs and a 72% shareholder return.
against this
The committee's stated reason has a basis: it says adjusted EBITDA would have been positive without the costs of acquisitions that were not planned when the goal was set.
C65facthigh confidence
The executives' 2025 long-term awards are all performance shares paying half on compound revenue growth of 30% or more and half on shareholder return 300 basis points above the Nasdaq Composite, tested over 12, 24 and 36 months; the 2025 tranche paid in full on 82% growth that included Ambry. The CEO's 2025 stock awards were valued at $40.0M.
against this
Revenue growth is measured on reported revenue, so acquired revenue such as Ambry's counts toward the goal; nothing in the plan pays on cash flow, operating profit or revenue per share.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
The two halves feed each other. Every test adds a record; links into more than 5,000 hospitals and clinics let Tempus join it to what happened to the patient; drugmakers pay for that joined record; and their money funds the software in the report that brings doctors back.
On the company's own measures, data customers spent 26% more in 2025 than in 2024, and 87% of doctors who have ordered more than five tests are still ordering a year later.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C49facthigh confidence
Tempus sells through about 205 clinical sales representatives into more than 5,000 healthcare sites, connected by more than 700 data links.
C14management claimmedium confidence
Data-licensing customers spent 26% more in 2025 than the same customers spent in 2024, on the company's own definition of that measure.
against this
- The measure is the company's own, defined over the data-licensing product alone rather than over all data revenue, and it is disclosed only in a release rather than in an audited filing.
- Roughly a quarter of the data line is a related party whose spending rose sharply in the same period, so part of the increase is spending the chief executive sits on both sides of.
C43management claimmedium confidence
Once a doctor has ordered more than five oncology sequencing tests from Tempus, 87% are still ordering twelve months later, on the company's own measure.
against this
- The measure counts only doctors who already ordered more than five tests, which selects for the ones least likely to leave; nothing is disclosed about the ones who ordered fewer.
- None of Caris, Guardant or NeoGenomics publishes a comparable figure, so it cannot be checked against a rival and is not audited.
The threat
Roche owns the two biggest rivals, Foundation Medicine in testing and Flatiron Health in cancer data, and neither publishes accounts. Caris sells the same tissue report. The subtler threat is Tempus's own making: it delivered an AI cancer model to AstraZeneca, and its risk factors warn that a drugmaker with a model may stop licensing data.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C24facthigh confidence
The two most important competitors - Foundation Medicine in testing and Flatiron Health in oncology data - are both owned by Roche and publish no accounts.
C23factmedium confidence
Caris names Tempus and Roche's Foundation Medicine as its rivals in tissue profiling and reports about 170,300 clinical cases in 2025 against Tempus's 367,500 samples.
C26management claimmedium confidence
Tempus delivered the first version of the oncology foundation model to AstraZeneca during Q2 2026.
against this
- AstraZeneca has published nothing confirming delivery or acceptance, so the only account of it is the seller's.
- The company's own risk factors say a completed model could reduce a customer's need to keep licensing data, so delivery is not unambiguously good news for the line it sits in.
C25facthigh confidence
Tempus's own risk factors say foundation models could ultimately reduce demand for its data products, because a drugmaker with a model may stop licensing the data.
sourceForm 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026primary
against this
- The same arrangement pays Tempus now: AstraZeneca paid a $35M fee and Pathos owes $200M of licence fees, and Tempus keeps a licence to use the finished model.
- Data-licensing revenue grew 36% in Q2 2026 while the model was being built, so no substitution is visible in the line yet.
The rivals: CAI, AZN, NTRA, MYGN, NEO, WGS, GH, IQV, ICLR, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roche's Foundation Medicine, FoundationOne CDxPriced against it: Listed abroad | On sale | Listed abroad | |
| CAI | Caris Life Sciences, MI Cancer SeekPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| AZN | The oncology foundation model Tempus itself built for AstraZenecaPriced against it: Different product | On sale | Different product |
| NTRA | Natera's SignateraPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| MYGN | Myriad GeneticsPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| NEO | NeoGenomicsPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| WGS | GeneDx HoldingsPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| GH | Guardant HealthPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| IQV | IQVIA HoldingsPriced against it: One segment only | On sale | One segment only |
| ICLR | ICONPriced against it: One segment only | On sale | One segment only |
How big it could get
How big this could get
About 2.11 million Americans will be diagnosed with cancer in 2026. At about $1,600 a test, one test each would be about $3.4B a year. Testing is still rare: 91.4% of Medicare cancer patients from 2016 to 2023 had no genomic test at all.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C19facthigh confidence
About 2,114,850 people are expected to be diagnosed with cancer in the United States in 2026.
C17facthigh confidence
Average reimbursement for an oncology sequencing test was about $1,600 in 2025, up from $1,510 in 2024 and $1,450 in 2023.
C20facthigh confidence
Of 391,151 Medicare patients with cancer between 2016 and 2023, 91.4% had no genomic test of any kind, and testing overall rose from 6.0% to 16.7%.
Who has signed
AstraZeneca has committed at least $220M through December 2026, rising to $320M through 2028 if it chooses. Pathos AI, chaired by Tempus's founder, owes $200M over three years and may pay half in its own private shares. Other signed data contracts held more than $1.1B at the end of 2025, but customers can cancel for convenience.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C48facthigh confidence
AstraZeneca has committed to spend at least $220M with Tempus under an agreement running to 31 December 2026, extendable to $320M through December 2028 at AstraZeneca's choice.
against this
- The extension is AstraZeneca's option and not Tempus's, so the largest named commitment in the file expires inside the horizon unless a customer chooses otherwise.
- Management said on the Q1 2026 call that it has a long history of renewing these agreements at or above where they historically stood; that is a statement about the past and about the company's own reading of it.
C10facthigh confidence
The related party is Pathos AI, whose Executive Chairman and co-founder is Tempus's own founder and chief executive.
C11facthigh confidence
Pathos owes Tempus $200M of data licence fees over three years and may settle up to half of it in its own private shares; it paid $8.8M that way in June 2026.
C15facthigh confidence
Signed data contracts held more than $1.1B of remaining value at the end of 2025, including about $300M of optional opt-ins, and customers may terminate for convenience.
The results
The numbers
Is it growing?Fast
Sales grew 50% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, slower than the 83% in the year to Dec 2025.
Is it profitable?Losing
Operating margin is −20%, up from −37% in the year to Dec 2023.
How steady is it?Swingy
Yearly sales growth has ranged from +30% to +83% over the last 3 years.
Does it earn good returns?Poor
Shareholders' money lost 67% a year, up from −89% in the year to Dec 2025.
How long can it keep going?Limited
It used $263M of cash over the last twelve months, so the $600M it holds lasts about 2.3 years at that pace.
Are shares being diluted?Diluting
The share count rose 189% in 3.5 years, and pay in shares costs 13% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in December.
| Dec 2022 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | 12 mo to Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | |||||
| Sales | $321M | $532M | $693M | $1.27B | $1.43B |
| Sales growth | - | +66% | +30% | +83% | +50% |
| Profit | |||||
| Operating margin | −83% | −37% | −100% | −20% | −20% |
| Net margin | −90% | −40% | −102% | −19% | −18% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | |||||
| Research and development | 26% | 17% | 22% | 14% | 14% |
| Selling, general and admin | 73% | 56% | 109% | 58% | 58% |
| Pay in shares | 0.0% | 0.0% | 77% | 9.8% | 13% |
| Capital spending | 5.7% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
| Cash | |||||
| Cash from operations | −$168M | −$214M | −$189M | −$218M | −$237M |
| Free cash flow | −$187M | −$249M | −$211M | −$239M | −$263M |
| Balance sheet | |||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $303M | $166M | $341M | $605M | $600M |
| Returns and shares | |||||
| Shares (diluted) | 63.0K | 63.3K | 120K | 174K | 182K |
What growth costs
For years, growing made Tempus less loss-making: research and overhead costs grew slower than sales, helped by a large purchase. In the past year that stopped. Overhead and pay in shares grew as fast as sales or faster, so the loss from running the business got slightly wider rather than narrower.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C68facthigh confidence
Per sales dollar, Tempus's tagged research and development fell from 26% in 2022 to 13.6% in 2025, its separate technology research line from 24% in 2024 to 11.5%, and selling, general and administrative costs from 73% to 57.5%; in the first half of 2026 selling and admin rose to 60.0% from 58.8% and total costs grew 27.2% against revenue's 28.1%.
sourceForm 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026primary
against this
2024 is distorted by $534.1M of stock pay recognised at the listing, and the 2025 fall in cost per dollar is partly the Ambry purchase, which added revenue faster than it added research spending.
C29facthigh confidence
Share-based pay was $106.8M in the first half of 2026 - 14.6% of revenue, and more than twice the $45.4M charged a year earlier.
C06facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 net income of $5.6M sat under a loss from operations of $75.9M, wider than the $61.8M operating loss a year earlier.
The last report (30 Jul)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
22%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
9.9%
Growth from the quarter before
against -5.2% the quarter before that
-20¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales
The second quarter of 2026 showed the growth without acquisitions: sales up 21.6% to $382.5M. Data and applications grew 28.0%, but a quarter of that line in the first half came from Pathos.
Tempus reported a $5.6M profit, yet it lost $75.9M from operations, more than a year earlier; the profit came from paper gains on shares it holds in Recursion and Personalis. The full-year forecast needs second-half growth of 23.2% to 24.7%.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed real growth, but also the objection behind the Unattractive view: the operating loss widened, the reported profit came from paper gains on shares it holds, and a large slice of data revenue came from a related party. The forecast still needs faster growth than this quarter delivered.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $-0.04 against $-0.14 expected; $0.03 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C04facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $382.5M, up 21.6% on Q2 2025, with Ambry inside both periods.
C13facthigh confidence
Data and applications revenue was $93.2M in Q2 2026, up 28.0%, with the data-licensing product inside it up 36%.
C09facthigh confidence
Related-party revenue was $43.7M of the $180.2M Data and applications line in the first half of 2026 - 24.2% of it.
C06facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 net income of $5.6M sat under a loss from operations of $75.9M, wider than the $61.8M operating loss a year earlier.
C07facthigh confidence
The $102.8M of other income in Q2 2026 rose on a $60.7M increase in unrealised gains on shares Tempus holds in Recursion and Personalis.
C37estimatemedium confidence
The 2026 guide needs $864M-$874M of revenue in the second half, growth of 23.2% to 24.7%, against 21.6% actually delivered in Q2 2026.
derivedGuidance of $1.595B-$1.605B less first-half revenue of $730.6M, compared against second-half 2025 revenue of $701.4M (Q3 $334.2M plus Q4 $367.2M). Claims C36, C04.
against this
- Data revenue is back-weighted to the second half by the budgeting cycles of pharmaceutical customers, which the 10-Q states plainly, so the shape is normal for this company.
- Roughly $200M of new data bookings were signed in Q2 2026 alone, and the company entered the year with about $350M of contracted value already earmarked for 2026.
What management did with the money
It is buying Personalis for about $1.5B, mostly in its own shares: about 17.9 million new shares at the 25 September price, up to 31.5 million if its price falls, adding 9.9% to 17.3% to the count. Staff were paid $106.8M in stock in the first half, and $1.17B of convertible debt sits against $599.6M of cash.
Insiders in 2026Q2: 14 purchases and 28 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C32facthigh confidence
Tempus agreed on 20 July 2026 to buy the 87.8% of Personalis it does not already own for $16.25 a share, about $1.5B of enterprise value, in its own stock at a ratio that floats above a Tempus price of $48.42 and is fixed at 0.3356 at or below it, unless Tempus elects to pay up to half in cash.
sourcePersonalis merger announcement, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-KprimaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026primaryTempus Form S-4 registration statement for the Personalis…primary
- 2026-09-25editedThe S-4 read in full: the terms are restated from the filing rather than the release - the 12.2% Tempus already owns, the $48.42 floor below which the ratio stops rising, and the closing conditions and fees.
C53estimatemedium confidence
Paying in stock, Tempus would issue about 17.9 million new shares at its 25 September 2026 close of $85.01, and up to 31.5 million if its price averages $48.42 or less before closing: 9.9% to 17.3% of the 181.6 million shares it had in issue on 20 August 2026, before any Personalis options and share awards, which the S-4 leaves blank.
sourceTempus Form S-4 registration statement for the Personalis…primaryResearch pack for TEM, frozen at…secondary
against this
- Tempus may pay up to half in cash and told Personalis it wanted that election to control dilution; at the full half the new shares halve, but the cash, about $762M, is more than the $599.6M of cash Tempus held at 30 June 2026, and the S-4 names equity or equity-linked offerings among the ways it could be paid for.
- The count is set by the average price in the 15 trading days before closing, not by any day's close; Tempus closed below $46.00 in late July, so the whole range is live.
- 2026-09-26editedre-struck at the 25 September 2026 close of $85.01 on the refreshed pack, from $82.24 on 24 September: about 17.9 million new shares rather than 18.5 million, 9.9% rather than 10.2%; the ceiling at the fixed ratio is unchanged
C29facthigh confidence
Share-based pay was $106.8M in the first half of 2026 - 14.6% of revenue, and more than twice the $45.4M charged a year earlier.
C27facthigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 Tempus held $599.6M of cash and $216.4M of listed shares against $1.17B of convertible notes and a $187.9M convertible note owed to Google.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Full. Priced as the platform it may become, not the laboratory-and-data business it is: that needs far bigger sales and a profit margin Tempus has never earned, both at once.
Share price
$81.90
close,
Company value for each $1 of sales
11.0
rivals' middle 7.5 · its 6-year normal 17.0
The shares jumped 21% on 19 August on a vaccine result from Merck and Moderna, not on anything Tempus published. Since then two filings have cut the other way: Recursion, a data customer with no tie to management, cut its yearly fee from $42M to $14M, and Tempus's own projections have Personalis losing money until 2030.
The next test is the September-quarter results on November 3.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C35facthigh confidence
Merck and Moderna reported on 19 August 2026 that their personalised cancer vaccine met its trial endpoints; Tempus shares rose 21% that day.
C50facthigh confidence
On 15 September 2026 Recursion and Tempus amended their 2023 data agreement: the term runs six years instead of five and Recursion can no longer terminate for convenience, but its yearly fee falls from $42M to $14M for each of the third, fourth and fifth years, it may access fewer records, and Tempus separately pays Recursion $12M for a two-year licence to its RNA model.
against this
- Under the old terms Recursion could terminate for convenience after three years on payment of an early termination fee, so the second $42M was never firm; the new $42M across three years cannot be walked away from.
- At least $4M of each yearly fee is now payable in cash, where the old fees could be paid entirely in Recursion shares (C08).
C51management claimmedium confidence
Tempus management's own June 2026 projections for Personalis as a Tempus subsidiary show revenue rising from $79M in 2026 to $333M in 2030, adjusted EBITDA negative in every year to 2029 and zero in 2030, and unlevered free cash flow negative in every year to 2033 - $408M out in 2026 to 2029 alone - against Personalis's own 2030 revenue projection of $758M.
against this
- The chief executive said on 15 September that the gap to Personalis's $758M is almost entirely the assumed price per test and that Tempus chose to be conservative, so the projections may understate the business.
- Adjusted EBITDA here excludes stock-based pay, and the projections were prepared before signing and are not updated for anything since.
- Tempus's own adviser valued Personalis at $17.00 to $28.55 a share on these projections, above the $16.25 paid, but only because they turn cash-positive in 2034: $556M out from 2026 to 2033 against $2,693M in from 2034 to 2040.
- 2026-09-25editedThe rest of the S-4 read: the note that it was unread is replaced, and the adviser's valuation of these same projections is added as counter-evidence.
The betPriced for success
If it works
1.2×
from today's value, valued like its peers
If it fails
keep 54%
of today's market value: what the worst case leaves shareholders
How we read the multiple
Counting its debt, buyers pay about $11 for each $1 of Tempus's yearly sales. Rivals' middle is about $7.50, and most of them keep more gross profit per dollar of sales.
To justify that price, Tempus needs:
- About $3.1B of sales in 2029. This year's forecast is about $1.6B.
- About 25 cents of operating profit on each of those dollars, a margin it has never earned.
- This year it expects only about $65M of profit, and that on a measure that leaves out pay in shares.
Against its own history. Too short a public record for its own past to say much. The comparison that carries information is against the rivals its annual report names.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C38estimatemedium confidence
At $10.99 of enterprise value for each dollar of sales, the price needs roughly a 25% operating margin on about $3.1B of revenue in 2029 - a margin Tempus has never earned.
derivedEnterprise value of $15.74B from the pack refreshed on 26 September 2026, at the 25 September close of $85.01. Management's stated 25% growth for three years applied to 2026 guidance of $1.6B gives about $3.1B in 2029 (assumption A01). Holding today's enterprise value and applying 20 times operating profit (assumption A02) requires $787M of operating profit, which is 25.2% of $3.1B. The best operating margin Tempus has reported is minus 16.7%, in Q4 2025. Claims C36, C41, C06.
against this
- Caris, the closest listed comparison, already earns a positive operating margin on the same kind of business, so the required margin is not unheard of in this industry.
- Gross margin is above 64% and rising, so the margin has to come from operating leverage rather than from pricing, and the company's adjusted profit measure has improved in each of the last several quarters.
- 2026-09-26editedre-struck on the pack refreshed 26 September 2026: the price rose from the $66.17 close of 24 August to $85.01, so enterprise value per dollar of sales is $10.99 rather than $8.70 and the margin the price needs on 2029 revenue is about 25% rather than 20%
C36management claimmedium confidence
Tempus guides 2026 revenue to $1.595B-$1.605B and adjusted profit before interest, tax and depreciation to about $65M, excluding any effect from Personalis.
against this
- The company has raised this guide once already and has beaten the consensus profit figure in each of its eight quarters as a listed company.
- The same measure was negative $7.4M for the whole of 2025, so the guide asks for a $72M swing in one year.
C39factmedium confidence
Tempus is dearer than the middle of the six competitors its own annual report names, on enterprise value against sales.
- 2026-09-26editedre-read on the pack refreshed 26 September 2026: still dearer than the middle, 11.0 against a median of 7.45 on enterprise value to sales, third dearest of seven
C40factmedium confidence
Tempus earned a 64.4% gross margin in Q2 2026, lower on a trailing-year basis than all but one of the six competitors its annual report names.
sourceQ2 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-KprimaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026primaryResearch pack for TEM, frozen at…secondary
- 2026-09-26editedre-read on the pack refreshed 26 September 2026: gross margin still second lowest of the seven; Neogenomics, now priced on its profit measures, was already in this comparison
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of sales, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | company value for each $1 of sales |
|---|---|---|
| MYGN | Myriad Genetics | 0.6× |
| NEO | NeoGenomics | 1.0× |
| WGS | GeneDx Holdings | 6.0× |
| CAI | Caris Life Sciences | 8.9× |
| TEM | Tempus AI | 11.0× |
| GH | Guardant Health | 20.6× |
| NTRA | Natera | 21.5× |
The middle of the other 6 is 7.5. Tempus AI, Inc. is 3rd dearest of 7.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
Dearer for each dollar of sales than the middle of the rivals its own report names, while keeping less of each dollar. That gap is Tempus's own.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Foundation Medicine, Inc., Flatiron Health, Inc., ResolutionBio, ConcertAI, Variantyx, Baylor Genetics, Genomind, Inc., PPD, Syneos Health, PathAI, Inc., HeartFlow, Inc., Quest Diagnostics and Labcorp.
The bet: what it pays if it works
Even if this works, the shares look expensive. The best case we can defend is management's own plan: sales growing by about a quarter each year to 2028, helped by higher test prices and faster data sales. At what rival labs are worth for their sales, that would still be worth only a little more than today's price.
If it fails, a real testing business remains, but its growth looks like its rivals' and a quarter of its data sales come from a company its own chief executive chairs.
| Revenue in two to three years | Clinical tests performed needed | Valued like its peers | Like the cheapest |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2.00B | about 1.0M at 100% kept | 1.0× | 0.1× |
| $2.50B (the big win) | about 1.3M at 100% kept | 1.2× | 0.1× |
| $2.70B (market forecast) | about 1.5M at 100% kept | 1.3× | 0.1× |
| $3.10B | about 1.7M at 100% kept | 1.5× | 0.1× |
A rival-commissioned study sizes US therapy selection near two million profiles a year by 2029; at 35% Tempus tests 700,000, which with flat hereditary and data at 25% a year is about $2.7 billion of revenue. On that forecast, $2.70B pays 1.3× from today's value: an Expensive bet on the market case.
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $4.08B of revenue (about 2.3M clinical tests performed); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $10.20B of revenue (about 6.1M clinical tests performed), at the same multiple.
The steps it has to take
- Done xT FDA-approved and paid at the premium Medicare price
- Done Tumour-only xT approved by the FDA
- Done AstraZeneca commits at least $220M of spend through 2026
- In progress Q3 2026 revenue above $430M, data licensing above 30% growth, related-party revenue below $20M due 2026-11-03
- Not started AstraZeneca elects the extension to $320M through December 2028 due 2026-12-31
- Not started Tumour-only xT billed at the $4,500 Medicare price due 2027-01-01
- Not started Related-party revenue below a tenth of the data line, with the line still growing above 25% due 2027-06
- Not started Liquid biopsy approved and priced in the mid-to-high $7,000s due 2027-12
- Not started Operating loss narrows four quarters running while revenue grows above 20% due 2027-12
- Not started A full year of positive free cash flow after share-based pay due 2028-12
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Valued like the cheapest
0.1×
the same success, the lowest comparison
Cheap bet at about
≈ $16.44
80% below the price (close, )
Market case
1.3×
an expensive bet if the market forecast holds
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C41management claimmedium confidence
Management says it expects about 25% revenue growth not just in 2026 but over three years, taking the business to roughly $3B.
against this
- Q2 2026 grew 21.6%, below that rate, and the hereditary half of diagnostics grew 5%.
- The chief executive attached no volume assumption to the figure, and the chief financial officer said on the same call that nothing about volume was implied by it.
C52management claimlow confidence
The chief executive said the tumour-only version of xT will be billed at the $4,500 Medicare price from 1 January, adding '$80 million to $100 million of revenue in margin benefit', and that approval and pricing of the liquid biopsy, expected in the second half of 2027, would move it from about $3,200 to the mid-to-high $7,000s, worth '$250 million to $300 million'.
against this
- A Medicare list price is not what Tempus is paid across its tests: the average reimbursement was about $1,600 in 2025 (C17) and it had been paid on only about 55% of the oncology tests it ran in 2023 and 2024 (C18).
- The liquid biopsy has no approval yet and he said the timing is 'unknown' between the third and fourth quarter of 2027; neither figure appears in any filing or in the guide.
C13facthigh confidence
Data and applications revenue was $93.2M in Q2 2026, up 28.0%, with the data-licensing product inside it up 36%.
C39factmedium confidence
Tempus is dearer than the middle of the six competitors its own annual report names, on enterprise value against sales.
- 2026-09-26editedre-read on the pack refreshed 26 September 2026: still dearer than the middle, 11.0 against a median of 7.45 on enterprise value to sales, third dearest of seven
C23factmedium confidence
Caris names Tempus and Roche's Foundation Medicine as its rivals in tissue profiling and reports about 170,300 clinical cases in 2025 against Tempus's 367,500 samples.
C09facthigh confidence
Related-party revenue was $43.7M of the $180.2M Data and applications line in the first half of 2026 - 24.2% of it.
C10facthigh confidence
The related party is Pathos AI, whose Executive Chairman and co-founder is Tempus's own founder and chief executive.
Where we disagree with the market
The market believes
The AI-native precision-medicine platform: data licensing compounds, the network widens the lead, and 25% growth runs for years.
We believe
The growth is slower and lower in quality than the headline: bought in 2025, partly related-party in the data line, slowing elsewhere.
Seeing that takes reading: a related-party note, and one sentence in a February release separating 83.0% reported growth from 33.5% without the acquisition.
We are wrong if data licensing grows above 30% without Pathos, test volume holds above 30% growth, and AstraZeneca extends to 2028.
What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
50%
of 20, 1 Sep
Four months earlier
59%
of 17, 1 May
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C41management claimmedium confidence
Management says it expects about 25% revenue growth not just in 2026 but over three years, taking the business to roughly $3B.
against this
- Q2 2026 grew 21.6%, below that rate, and the hereditary half of diagnostics grew 5%.
- The chief executive attached no volume assumption to the figure, and the chief financial officer said on the same call that nothing about volume was implied by it.
C03facthigh confidence
Q4 2025 revenue grew 83.0%, of which 33.5 percentage points were organic - the rest came from buying Ambry Genetics.
C09facthigh confidence
Related-party revenue was $43.7M of the $180.2M Data and applications line in the first half of 2026 - 24.2% of it.
C10facthigh confidence
The related party is Pathos AI, whose Executive Chairman and co-founder is Tempus's own founder and chief executive.
C48facthigh confidence
AstraZeneca has committed to spend at least $220M with Tempus under an agreement running to 31 December 2026, extendable to $320M through December 2028 at AstraZeneca's choice.
against this
- The extension is AstraZeneca's option and not Tempus's, so the largest named commitment in the file expires inside the horizon unless a customer chooses otherwise.
- Management said on the Q1 2026 call that it has a long history of renewing these agreements at or above where they historically stood; that is a statement about the past and about the company's own reading of it.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- A renewal that decides the case. AstraZeneca's agreement ends on 31 December 2026, and extending it is AstraZeneca's choice.
- Revenue from the founder's company. Pathos supplied 24.2% of the data line in the first half, and may pay up to half its fees in private shares.
- Its own model as competitor. A drugmaker that owns a model trained on Tempus data may stop licensing the data.
- Getting paid. Tempus was paid on only about 55% of its cancer tests, and Medicare pays nationally only for FDA-approved uses.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C48facthigh confidence
AstraZeneca has committed to spend at least $220M with Tempus under an agreement running to 31 December 2026, extendable to $320M through December 2028 at AstraZeneca's choice.
against this
- The extension is AstraZeneca's option and not Tempus's, so the largest named commitment in the file expires inside the horizon unless a customer chooses otherwise.
- Management said on the Q1 2026 call that it has a long history of renewing these agreements at or above where they historically stood; that is a statement about the past and about the company's own reading of it.
C09facthigh confidence
Related-party revenue was $43.7M of the $180.2M Data and applications line in the first half of 2026 - 24.2% of it.
C10facthigh confidence
The related party is Pathos AI, whose Executive Chairman and co-founder is Tempus's own founder and chief executive.
C11facthigh confidence
Pathos owes Tempus $200M of data licence fees over three years and may settle up to half of it in its own private shares; it paid $8.8M that way in June 2026.
C25facthigh confidence
Tempus's own risk factors say foundation models could ultimately reduce demand for its data products, because a drugmaker with a model may stop licensing the data.
sourceForm 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026primary
against this
- The same arrangement pays Tempus now: AstraZeneca paid a $35M fee and Pathos owes $200M of licence fees, and Tempus keeps a licence to use the finished model.
- Data-licensing revenue grew 36% in Q2 2026 while the model was being built, so no substitution is visible in the line yet.
C18facthigh confidence
Tempus had been paid on about 55% of the clinical oncology sequencing tests it performed during 2023 and 2024.
C21facthigh confidence
Medicare pays nationally for tumour sequencing in advanced cancer only where the test carries FDA approval as a companion diagnostic for that patient's cancer.
What we still do not know
- Whether AstraZeneca extends its agreement to 2028.
- How many new shares the Personalis deal creates; that depends on Tempus's price before it closes.
- Whether the $80M to $100M the chief executive expects from Medicare pricing arrives. It is in no filing and not in the forecast.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C48facthigh confidence
AstraZeneca has committed to spend at least $220M with Tempus under an agreement running to 31 December 2026, extendable to $320M through December 2028 at AstraZeneca's choice.
against this
- The extension is AstraZeneca's option and not Tempus's, so the largest named commitment in the file expires inside the horizon unless a customer chooses otherwise.
- Management said on the Q1 2026 call that it has a long history of renewing these agreements at or above where they historically stood; that is a statement about the past and about the company's own reading of it.
C53estimatemedium confidence
Paying in stock, Tempus would issue about 17.9 million new shares at its 25 September 2026 close of $85.01, and up to 31.5 million if its price averages $48.42 or less before closing: 9.9% to 17.3% of the 181.6 million shares it had in issue on 20 August 2026, before any Personalis options and share awards, which the S-4 leaves blank.
sourceTempus Form S-4 registration statement for the Personalis…primaryResearch pack for TEM, frozen at…secondary
against this
- Tempus may pay up to half in cash and told Personalis it wanted that election to control dilution; at the full half the new shares halve, but the cash, about $762M, is more than the $599.6M of cash Tempus held at 30 June 2026, and the S-4 names equity or equity-linked offerings among the ways it could be paid for.
- The count is set by the average price in the 15 trading days before closing, not by any day's close; Tempus closed below $46.00 in late July, so the whole range is live.
- 2026-09-26editedre-struck at the 25 September 2026 close of $85.01 on the refreshed pack, from $82.24 on 24 September: about 17.9 million new shares rather than 18.5 million, 9.9% rather than 10.2%; the ceiling at the fixed ratio is unchanged
C52management claimlow confidence
The chief executive said the tumour-only version of xT will be billed at the $4,500 Medicare price from 1 January, adding '$80 million to $100 million of revenue in margin benefit', and that approval and pricing of the liquid biopsy, expected in the second half of 2027, would move it from about $3,200 to the mid-to-high $7,000s, worth '$250 million to $300 million'.
against this
- A Medicare list price is not what Tempus is paid across its tests: the average reimbursement was about $1,600 in 2025 (C17) and it had been paid on only about 55% of the oncology tests it ran in 2023 and 2024 (C18).
- The liquid biopsy has no approval yet and he said the timing is 'unknown' between the third and fourth quarter of 2027; neither figure appears in any filing or in the guide.
What would change our view
- Unattractive→AttractiveThe loss closes on growth that is arm's length
It needs all of:
- ○The operating loss narrows four quarters running while sales grow above 20%, with growth excluding acquisitions above 30% in two of them.checked at the next results, due by 3 Nov
- ○Pathos falls below a tenth of the data line while that line still grows above 25%.checked at the next results, due by 3 Nov
- Reopens the researchThe committed pharma spend is extended
It needs any of:
- ○AstraZeneca extends, taking its committed spend to $320M through December 2028.watched as it happens
- ○Tempus reports a full year of positive free cash flow after counting stock pay.checked at the next results, due by 3 Nov
What is coming
- 3 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether revenue reaches the 23% to 25% second-half growth the guide needs, and whether the related-party share of the data line falls.
Every dated event ahead
- 3 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether revenue reaches the 23% to 25% second-half growth the guide needs, and whether the related-party share of the data line falls.
- 31 December 2026 AstraZeneca agreement reaches its term; extension at AstraZeneca's option: Whether the largest named data commitment is extended to $320M through 2028, the renewal that limits conviction.
- 1 January 2027 Tumour-only xT billed at the $4,500 Medicare price: Whether the promised $80M to $100M of revenue and margin benefit shows up in 2027 test pricing.
- February 2027 FY2026 results and 2027 guidance: Whether 2026 met the $1.6B guide and positive adjusted EBITDA, and whether 2027 is guided near the 25% growth management promised.
- March 2027 Personalis merger closes: How many shares it costs at the closing price, and whether a deal management projects to lose money until 2030 closes on its terms.
Since we wrote this
Written
25 Aug
Price the thesis read
$85.01
25 Sep
Latest close
$81.90
close, · -3.7% since
- 26 OctNewsBristol and Pathos data deals add $192.5M, $55M of it related-party. View heldTempus signed $192.5M of data agreements with Bristol Myers Squibb and Pathos (8-K, 23 October); European IVDR certification for the xR test.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe bet now names what it ridesThe owner asked that every bet name the macro trend behind it, after BWXT's bet was missing its chief executive's case for nuclear over gas.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
- 26 SepThesis reviewRelated-party share put at 24.2% of data line; view heldThe summary of what would change our view said a tenth of the data line came from Pathos, the chief executive's other company. The filing gives 24.2% in the first half, double a year earlier.
- 26 SepThesis reviewShares up 28%; the price now needs a 25% marginA data fix refreshed the numbers. At $85.01 the price needs about a 25% operating margin by 2029, not 20%, against a best of minus 16.7%, and the rivals' comparison is unchanged.
- 25 SepNewsPersonalis deal adds a tenth to a sixth more shares. View heldThe full merger filing changes how much of the company each holder keeps, not what the company earns, so the per-share objection sharpens and the view stands.
- 24 SepNewsA data customer cut its fee; Personalis loses money. View heldRecursion, a customer with no tie to management, cut its yearly fee by two thirds, and Tempus's own plan has Personalis losing money until 2030. Both sharpen the objection.
- 25 AugThesis writtenUnattractive, medium convictionWritten after a 54.2% rise in twenty trading days, much of it on another company's vaccine trial result.
Also checked 4 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 28
Where this came from
Sources - 28
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-02-24Item 1 business and competition, the related-party note, reimbursement and payer detail, oncology sample volume, the Illumina dependency, risk factorsbacksC01C02C08C10C12C15C16C17C18C21C22C23C24C25C43C44C45C48C49C55C56C61C62C66C67C68
- S02primarycompany release2026-02-24the organic growth figure excluding Ambry, product-line revenue splits, adjusted EBITDA, remaining contract value, net revenue retention and the first 2026 guidancebacksC02C03C14C15
- S03primarycompany filing2026-07-30the income statement and balance sheet, the related-party note, the convertible note terms, the Ambry and Paige purchase accounting, the Personalis subsequent eventbacksC04C05C06C07C09C10C11C12C13C25C27C28C29C30C31C32C40C56C61C66C68
- S04primarycompany release2026-07-30raised 2026 guidance, the unrealised-gain figure inside net income, oncology and MRD volume growth, bookings, cash and marketable securitiesbacksC04C06C07C09C13C22C26C28C29C30C36C40C46
- S05primarycompany release2026-07-20the price per share, the enterprise value, the all-stock structure, the maximum exchange ratio and the $46.00 termination floorbacksC32
- S06primarytranscript2026-05-05Q1 2026 earnings call transcriptmanagement's three-year growth framing, the minimal-residual-disease unit economics, the algorithm attach rate; and nine analyst questions, none of which raised the related-party share of data revenuebacksC41C46
- S07secondaryvendor data2026-09-26Research pack for TEM, frozen at content/TEM/research-pack.json (refreshed 2026-09-26)price (the 25 September 2026 close of $85.01), enterprise value, the twenty-day range, returns, the analyst split, insider filings and the filed competitor cohort's multiplesbacksC35C39C40C42C53
- S08primarygovernment data2026-08-25NCI Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program - Cancer Stat Facts: Cancer of Any Site National Cancer Institutethe base for the prize, counted in patients by a body with no interest in the answer
In 2026, it is estimated that there will be 2,114,850 new cases of cancer of any site
backsC19 - S09primaryindustry data2026-07-29Kang S-Y, Zhang R, Kim C, et al. Genomic Testing Uptake Among Medicare Beneficiaries With Cancer. JAMA Network Open JAMA Network Openhow far this market actually is from the narrative, measured on government claims data by researchers with no position in it
Of 391 151 Medicare beneficiaries with cancer (50.6% were female; 31.8% were older than 75 years), 7.0% received non-NGS testing only, 1.2% NGS only, 0.5% both, and 91.4% no genomic testing. NGS adoption increased modestly, whereas overall genomic testing nearly tripled from 6.0% in 2016 to 16.7% in 2023.
backsC20 - S10primaryregulator2020-01-27CMS National Coverage Determination 90.2 - Next Generation Sequencing Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Servicesthe regulatory gate that decides which sequencing tests Medicare pays for, and therefore why the FDA approvals matter
The diagnostic laboratory test using NGS must have: Food & Drug Administration (FDA) approval or clearance as a companion in vitro diagnostic; and, an FDA-approved or -cleared indication for use in that patient's cancer
backsC21 - S11primarycompany filing2026-03-03Caris Life Sciences Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 Caris Life Sciences, Inc.a direct rival's own naming of Tempus as a competitor, and its own tissue-profiling case volume - an outside measure of relative scalebacksC23C24C55
- S12primarycompany filing2026-02-26Personalis Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 Personalis, Inc.what Tempus is buying: revenue, its direction, the losses, the clinical test business and the Moderna concentrationbacksC33C34
- S13primarycompany release2026-08-19Merck and Moderna announce Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial results Merck & Co., Inc.the third-party event behind the August share-price move, from the parties that ran the trial
Intismeran autogene is an mRNA-based individualized neoantigen therapy (INT) designed specifically for each patient based on the unique set of mutations within their tumor
backsC35 - S14primarycompany filing2026-08-20the transaction code and the footnote saying the sale was issuer-mandated to fund tax withholding, plus the indirect holdings the aggregate hidesbacksC42
- S15primarycompany filing2026-08-20the second footnote: a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted eleven months before the sales it executedbacksC42
- S16primarycompany filing2026-02-27the scale of the incumbent in tumour-informed recurrence monitoring, in revenue and in tests processedbacksC47
- S17primarycompany filing2026-09-21Recursion Pharmaceuticals Form 8-K, Item 1.01 - amendment to the Tempus Master Agreement and RNA foundation model licence Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.the counterparty's own account of the 15 September 2026 amendment: the original fee schedule, the cut to $14M a year, the removal of the termination right, fewer data records, and the $12M Tempus pays back for Recursion's modelbacksC50
- S18primarycompany filing2026-08-31read in full at the 2026-09-25 review: the merger consideration, exchange ratio, $48.42 floor and $46.00 walk-away, the cash election and its 40% stock minimum, Tempus's 13,039,067 Personalis shares and Personalis's 106,875,990 shares outstanding, Tempus's 181.6 million shares outstanding, the financing of any cash election, the conditions, outside date, antitrust remedy commitment and termination fees, the merger agreement's statement of Tempus's capital (21,102,107 shares reserved for the convertible notes), the merger-specific risk factors, the commercialization agreement, Tempus management's own projections for Personalis as a subsidiary to 2040 with Morgan Stanley's valuation of them, Personalis's projections, and the bidding history. It carries no pro forma combined financial statements.backsC32C51C53
- S19primarycompany filing2026-09-15the chief executive's statements on Medicare pricing for the tumour-only test and the liquid biopsy, the Merck-Moderna rollout, data bookings, and the gap between the two sets of Personalis projectionsbacksC52
- S20primaryvendor data2026-09-24the 24 September 2026 close of $82.24 at which the Personalis exchange ratio and the notes' conversion prices are readread, but no claim rests on it
- S21primarycompany filing2026-09-24the Rule 10b5-1 box on every open-market sale filed after 20 August 2026, including the chief executive's sales of 25 August, 17 September and 22 SeptemberbacksC42
- S22primarycompany filing2025-06-20Caris Life Sciences final IPO prospectus (Form 424B4), market opportunity section citing a Nephron Research market study Caris commissioned Caris Life Sciences, Inc.an analyst's sizing, filed by a rival, of the US therapy-selection market in patient profiles a year and its price, and of the US biopharma data-services marketbacksC54
- S23primarycompany filing2026-02-19Guardant Health Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 Guardant Health, Inc.a direct rival's own oncology test volume, oncology revenue and biopharma and data revenue for 2025 and 2024backsC55
- S24primarycompany filing2026-02-24Myriad Genetics Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 Myriad Genetics, Inc.the largest hereditary-cancer rival's revenue, volume and price change for 2025backsC57
- S25secondarynews2026-03-12The Imaging Wire - FDA Updates AI List with New Clearances (12 March 2026), reporting the FDA's list of AI-enabled medical devices through December 2025 The Imaging Wirethe count of FDA-authorised AI devices and radiology's share, read through press_fetch because www.fda.gov refuses this repository's fetcher; a pointer to the FDA list, not the list itself
Authorized 1,451 AI-enabled medical devices since it began keeping track in 1995. Approved 1,104 radiology devices, or 76% of total AI-enabled medical authorizations.
backsC58 - S26secondaryvendor data2026-10-01FMP key-metrics TTM, quote and annual analyst estimates for TEM, MYGN, NEO, WGS, CAI, GH and NTRA, fetched 2026-10-01 through scripts/api/fmp.py Financial Modeling Prepeach filed competitor's enterprise value against trailing revenue and against consensus revenue for 2026 to 2029backsC59
- S27primarycompany filing2026-04-07beneficial ownership and voting power as of March 27, 2026; executive officers' tenure; the 2025 bonus goals and payout; the 2025 PSU metrics and first-tranche result; the summary compensation tablebacksC62C63C64C65
- S28primarycompany filing2026-10-02the expected closing window (late 2026 or early 2027) and the outside date of April 20, 2027 with its automatic extensionsbacksC69