LightPath Technologies
It melts an American-made infrared glass that replaces Chinese germanium in military thermal cameras, and increasingly builds the cameras themselves.
Our viewUnattractive Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑
Reported revenue nearly doubled and the company's own pro forma table puts fiscal 2026 like-for-like at 38.7%. More than half the growth was bought.
Business quality3/4 ↑
A genuine exclusive licence over Navy materials, qualified into named programmes - but bounded to one patent family while a Belgian rival moulds chalcogenide.
Financial position3/4 ↑
$93.2M of cash and $0.2M of loans at 30 June, against two equity raises in six months. Net cash is not self-funding.
Execution record3/4 →
Delivered the germanium-free redesigns it promised and beat the G5 earnout, against a margin target already slipping and five erratic prints.
Per share capture2/4 →
Share count up 63% in fiscal 2026, all three acquisitions part-paid in stock, and about 3.0 million more shares still to convert at $2.15.
Potential2/4 ↑
Orders yet to convert, and a border programme whose funding the department has not released. The $300M ambition is 3.5 times today's pace.
Risk profile3/4 →
Customer concentration is unusually low, but the whole case depends on one procurement regime and on an export control China suspended in November.
Valuation2/4 ↓
About 8.4 times trailing sales against a six-year median under two, with no operating profit in nine years.
Evidence quality4/4 →
Central claims are filed figures, and the moat, the driver and the prize each face an outside source: a competitor, the statute, a government count.
The bet · 2-3 years
Priced for success1.2×
If it works 1.2× · if it fails you keep about 25%.
The Verdict
We rate LightPath unattractive. It melts an American-made infrared glass that replaces Chinese germanium in military thermal cameras, and US law now pushes the military off Chinese optics, so orders have jumped. But most of the reported growth was bought, its history holds almost no operating profit, and the share count rose by more than half, so the business is mixed. The price is full, not cheap: it assumes a size and profit LightPath has never had, so a miss would hurt. As a bet it is fragile: if it works the shares are worth about what they cost, and if it fails about a fifth is left.
The long caseUS law is pushing the military off Chinese germanium, and LightPath makes a glass that replaces it; the case needs that to grow into a large camera business.
The evidence under this - 9 claims
C18facthigh confidence
Section 834 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026, enacted 18 December 2025, requires that 'The Secretary of Defense shall develop and implement a strategy to eliminate the reliance of the Department of Defense on any covered nation to acquire optical glass or optical systems by January 1, 2030.' The covered nations are North Korea, China, Russia, Belarus and Iran. The strategy must be implemented within 270 days of enactment, and an interim report on progress is due to the congressional defence committees by 15 March 2027.
C19facthigh confidence
Section 844 of the same Act is a prohibition rather than a strategy. It adds germanium and gallium to the covered-material list in section 4872 of title 10 of the United States Code - the provision barring the Department of Defense from acquiring an end item containing a covered material melted or produced in a covered nation - with effect two years after enactment, which is 18 December 2027.
C23facthigh confidence
Backlog was about $110.9M at 30 June 2026, up 197% from $37.4M a year earlier and level with the $110.6M reported three months before. About $85.6M of it is scheduled for delivery within twelve months, and on the fourth-quarter call management put roughly $86M in fiscal 2027. The 30 June 2025 figure itself included $16.6M of G5 Infrared product backlog, so the pre-G5 remainder was $20.8M, an 8% increase on the prior year end.
sourceFiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results release,…primaryFourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, question section…primaryLightPath Technologies Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended…primary
- 2026-09-20editedthe fiscal 2026 results moved backlog to $110.9M and showed it flat on the March quarter, which the March-dated claim could not say
- 2026-09-26editedas_of corrected from 2026-03-31 to 2026-06-30: the 20 September edit restated the claim on the 30 June backlog from the fiscal 2026 release (S19) and left the March date on it.
C27facthigh confidence
The annual report's own pro forma table, prepared as if G5 had been owned from 1 July 2023 and Amorphous from 1 July 2024, puts fiscal 2026 revenue at $73,280,192 against $52,828,817 - growth of 38.7% rather than the reported 92.7% - and pro forma loss before income taxes at $20,052,850 against $8,842,465. The same table in the third-quarter 10-Q put the March quarter at $19,186,814 against $11,277,802, growth of 70.1% rather than the reported 109%, and the nine months at growth of 32.7% rather than 102%.
sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 30 June 2026primaryLightPath Technologies Form 10-Q for the quarterly period…primary
- 2026-09-20editedthe full-year pro forma table landed in the 10-K and answers the pre-registered question directly: 38.7% like-for-like against a 92.7% headline
C29facthigh confidence
Fiscal 2025 revenue was $37,202,630, up 17.3%, on a 27.2% gross margin and a negative 31.8% operating margin. The nine-year record from fiscal 2017 is revenue of $28.4M, $32.5M, $33.7M, $35.0M, $38.5M, $35.6M, $32.9M, $31.7M and $37.2M, with an operating margin positive in only two of those years and negative in every year since fiscal 2021.
C48inferencemedium confidence
At the 25 September close of $9.98 the market is paying roughly $606M of enterprise value for about $85M of annualised revenue and no operating profit. On the 70,036,252 shares outstanding on 8 September the market value is about $699M; net cash at 30 June was about $93.0M, cash of $93,204,655 less $187,195 of loans payable, leaving about $606M of enterprise value. That is about 7.2 times the June quarter annualised at $84.6M, and 8.4 times fiscal 2026 revenue of $71.7M.
derivedThe filed share count from C38 at the 25 September close, less the 30 June cash and loans payable in the fiscal 2026 annual report. The $6.3M cash earnout due in January 2027 and $10.7M of lease liabilities are left out, which flatters the company slightly. Revenue is read both as the fiscal year and as the June quarter multiplied by four, the company's best quarter.
against this
- Annualising a single quarter is the aggressive assumption in the other direction: the June quarter was the company's best, and the two July orders and the $110.9M backlog say the next four quarters should be larger, not equal. On the single analyst's $105.6M for fiscal 2027 the same enterprise value is about 5.7 times, which is a different-looking number for the same company.
- About $4.5M of annual revenue leaves with the Chinese subsidiary once that sale closes, so the run-rate being annualised includes revenue that will not recur.
- 2026-09-26editedThe claim now states the trailing-revenue multiple, 12.9 to 13.5 times on the restated share count, which the reconsider price condition was struck on and cites C48 for; the search note had set the vendor's 12.5, struck on a share count C38 shows 8.9% short, as the top of the range.
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck at the 25 September close ($9.98, from $13.23) on the filed share count (C38) and the filed 30 June cash, replacing the estimated $95M. Enterprise value about $606M rather than $810M to $850M: 8.4 times fiscal 2026 revenue of $71.7M rather than 12.9 to 13.5 times $62.8M, and 7.2 times the June quarter annualised rather than 10.6 to 11.1 times March's.
C40facthigh confidence
Against its own history the multiple has re-rated roughly fivefold, down from eightfold in August. At the 25 September close of $9.98 price to sales is 8.7 times against a six-year median of 1.65; the pack's enterprise value to sales is unusable this time (C39), against a six-year median of 1.66. The shares returned 45.5% over 252 days, against 249.1% in the pack of 25 August, and sit 47.3% below a 252-day high of $18.94, on a 20-day average intraday range of 6.7%, the volatile bucket.
sourceResearch pack for LPTH, refreshed 2026-09-26 and frozen at…secondaryResearch pack for LPTH, frozen at…primary
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the pack refreshed 2026-09-26 at the 25 September close, $9.98 against $13.23: price to sales 8.7 times rather than 13.2, the 252-day return 45.5% rather than 249.1% (kept beside it as the August reading), and the 20-day range 6.7%, which moves the name from very volatile to volatile. The pack's enterprise value to sales is no longer usable.
C42facthigh confidence
The analyst snapshot is still ten buy ratings with no holds and no sells, though the dated series behind it counts five analysts. One contributor now puts the fiscal 2027 top line at $105.6M with a loss of $0.016 a share, and one puts fiscal 2028 at $145.9M and $0.11 a share, against $139.5M and $0.51 in August. Fiscal 2026 closed at $71.7M of revenue against a $71.2M consensus.
sourceResearch pack for LPTH, refreshed 2026-09-26 and frozen at…secondaryForm 10-K for the year ended 30 June 2026primary
- 2026-09-26editedRe-read on the pack refreshed 2026-09-26: fiscal 2027 now rests on one contributor at $105.6M rather than two at $104.8M, the fiscal 2028 estimate moved to $145.9M and $0.11 a share from $139.5M and $0.51, and fiscal 2026 has closed at $71.7M.
C47management claimlow confidence
At an investor day in February 2026 management set out a three-pillar growth strategy targeting in excess of $300M of annual revenue within five years, anchored by assemblies, infrared camera systems and large defence programmes.
against this
Reaching $300M from a $76M annualised run-rate is a compound rate near 32% a year for five consecutive years, against a company whose revenue was lower in fiscal 2024 than in fiscal 2021 and whose like-for-like growth this year is 32.7%. The target requires the current rate to hold for five years with no acquisitions, and every acceleration so far has been bought.
The company
Thermal cameras see heat, and their lenses have long been made of germanium, a crystal mostly supplied from China. LightPath makes a substitute, a glass it melts itself in Florida and Texas, and turns it into lenses, lens assemblies and, increasingly, whole cameras.
Because it is glass rather than crystal, it can be pressed into a finished lens in one step instead of being ground for hours, and one pressed lens can do the work of several.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C01facthigh confidence
LightPath melts its own chalcogenide infrared glass, moulds and diamond-turns it into lenses, coats them, and builds them into optical assemblies and complete cooled and uncooled infrared cameras. Manufacturing sits in Orlando, Garland and Plano in Texas, Hudson in New Hampshire, Riga in Latvia and Zhenjiang in China, the last of which is being sold.
C06facthigh confidence
Chalcogenide is a synthetic glass rather than a grown crystal, which is why it can be compression-moulded to a finished aspheric surface in one step instead of being ground and polished or single-point diamond-turned. That is the whole cost argument: moulding replaces hours of subtractive machining per element with a press cycle, and it lets one aspheric surface do the work of several spherical elements, so a thermal imager needs fewer lenses. The BDNL grades add two optical properties germanium does not have - a negative thermo-optic coefficient, so the focus does not drift as the housing heats, and transmission across the short-wave, mid-wave and long-wave bands at once, which is what a multispectral camera such as Mantis requires. The company also states that the glass has a coefficient of thermal expansion close to aluminium, which makes it easier to bond and hard-mount into a metal barrel.
How it makes money
It is paid per part, and the parts are getting bigger: a lens sells for single dollars, an assembly for hundreds, a camera system for tens of thousands and sometimes hundreds of thousands. No customer is large: the biggest was 9% of fiscal 2025 revenue. What brings them back is a qualified place inside a named military programme.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C16management claimmedium confidence
LightPath describes the average selling price of its 'LightPath 3.0' camera and system products as being 'in tens of thousands, and sometimes hundreds of thousands' of dollars, against hundreds of dollars for a LightPath 2.0 assembly and single dollars for a component.
against this
The band spans an order of magnitude and is the company's own, so any prize composed on it inherits that spread. Nothing filed states an actual unit price or an actual unit count for any camera LightPath sells.
C12facthigh confidence
Customer concentration is unusually low for a defence supplier. Three customers were about 23% of fiscal 2025 revenue with the largest at 9%; in fiscal 2024 three were 25% with the largest at 12%. The 10-K adds that the largest customer in fiscal 2024 was not among the three largest in fiscal 2023.
C11facthigh confidence
LightPath names specific programmes its content sits in: the Army's Next Generation Squad Weapon Fire Control through Lockheed Martin, the Navy's Shipboard Panoramic Electro-Optic Infrared programme through L3Harris, Air Force counter-unmanned-aircraft programmes, border surveillance towers, and the Apache. On the May 2026 call management said a new airborne system using BlackDiamond had completed qualification and was awaiting an award in late summer or early autumn.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (FY2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Assemblies and modules | 44.4% | Lens assemblies, complete cooled and uncooled infrared cameras and camera systems, mostly from G5 Infrared, sold into defence programmes. |
| Infrared components | 29.6% | Moulded and turned infrared lenses, BlackDiamond and Amorphous glass sold as material, and G5's coating services. |
| Visible components | 21.6% | Precision moulded aspheric glass lenses for visible light, sold per part mainly to industrial customers; the China plant sale will shrink it. |
| Engineering services | 4.4% | Paid design and development work for customers, usually ahead of a production order. |
Who runs it
Shmuel Rubin has run LightPath since 2020 and turned a lens maker into a maker of camera systems, mostly by buying companies; it has lost money every year since 2021. Albert Miranda has run the finances since 2021 and paid for the deals by selling shares. Insiders owned about a quarter in late 2025, nearly all one fund that has since sold most of it. The yearly bonus rides mostly on operating profit and paid nothing for two years; the chief executive did get a bonus for closing a deal.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C63facthigh confidence
Shmuel Rubin has been president, chief executive and a director since March 2020. Albert Miranda joined in April 2021 and became chief financial officer on 7 May 2021, after twelve years as president and chief financial officer of Jenoptik North America; both signed the fiscal 2026 10-K on 10 September 2026. M. Scott Faris, a director since 2011, has chaired the board since December 2022, and Thomas Ellis of North Run joined it under the Series G purchase agreement.
sourceLightPath Technologies proxy statement (DEF 14A), filed 28…primaryForm 10-K for the year ended 30 June 2026primary
against this
Rosh Electroptics, owned by the chief executive's father and brother, is LightPath's non-exclusive sales representative in Israel; in fiscal 2025 the company paid it about $172,000 for materials and $63,000 in commission and received about $151,000 from sales through it.
C64facthigh confidence
At 21 October 2025 the nine directors and executive officers owned 24.8% of the Class A common and 24.3% of combined voting power, of which 22.0% was North Run Affiliated Funds through director Thomas Ellis, including 80.4% of the Series G preferred; the chief executive held 1.3% including options and unvested stock, the chair 1.0%. There is one class of common, and the preferred votes as converted.
against this
North Run has since sold 348,336 shares in May and 3,571,400 in June 2026, leaving 2,934,828 common shares (C36), about 4% of the 70,036,252 outstanding in September (C38).
C65inferencemedium confidence
Insiders now own roughly 7% of the company rather than a quarter: directors and officers other than North Run held about 1.96 million shares including options and unvested stock in October 2025, under 3% of today's count, and North Run's 2,934,828 common shares add about 4%, until the fiscal 2027 proxy restates it.
derivedC64's group total less North Run's 12,837,693, plus C36's remaining North Run holding, over C38's 70,036,252 shares
against this
Any Series G preferred North Run still holds, and stock vested or granted since October 2025, are not counted, so the true figure could be somewhat higher.
C66facthigh confidence
The annual bonus pays 60% on EBITDA, 20% on revenue growth over the prior year and 20% on personal goals, and nothing below 60% of the EBITDA target; the long-term award is half restricted stock vesting over three years and half stock earned only if the share return beats the Russell Microcap Index. Neither bonus nor return award paid for fiscal 2024 or 2025. The chief executive's fiscal 2025 pay was $692,875: $405,500 salary, $85,790 of retention stock and a $201,585 special bonus for completing the G5 acquisition.
against this
- The special bonus paid for closing a deal, outside the plan's EBITDA gate, so the one award paid in fiscal 2025 rewarded buying rather than earning.
- Fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA was a loss of about $5.1M, so the bar the bonus missed is the company's own adjusted measure, which excludes the earnout revaluations (C50).
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
The protection is a licence, and it is narrow. The US Naval Research Laboratory licensed its newest glass recipes to LightPath alone in 2021, and that glass now sits in named programmes, including a Navy ship camera through L3Harris and an Army weapon sight through Lockheed Martin.
The licence covers those recipes and nothing else. LightPath's own filing says two other companies make its standard grades, and Umicore has pressed this kind of glass in volume for years.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C07facthigh confidence
The Naval Research Laboratory licence is an exclusive optical-use licence over an infrared patent portfolio the Navy owns, secured in December 2021 after a two-year transition into production. The first commercial material under it, BDNL-4, was released in April 2024, and LightPath says it now has roughly twenty proprietary infrared glass compositions.
C11facthigh confidence
LightPath names specific programmes its content sits in: the Army's Next Generation Squad Weapon Fire Control through Lockheed Martin, the Navy's Shipboard Panoramic Electro-Optic Infrared programme through L3Harris, Air Force counter-unmanned-aircraft programmes, border surveillance towers, and the Apache. On the May 2026 call management said a new airborne system using BlackDiamond had completed qualification and was awaiting an award in late summer or early autumn.
C03facthigh confidence
BlackDiamond is LightPath's trademark for its chalcogenide infrared glasses. Its own 10-K says the generic grades BD6 and BD2 are produced by at least two other companies, and that only the BDNL type - licensed exclusively from the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory in December 2021 - is exclusive to LightPath.
C08facthigh confidence
Umicore, the first company LightPath's own 10-K names as a competitor in moulded infrared optics, produces both germanium and its own GASIR family of chalcogenide glasses, and states that GASIR offers a wider transmission spectrum and much better athermalisation than germanium. It says its moulding process makes finished asphero-diffractive lens geometry in medium to large volume production.
The threat
Umicore, a Belgian company outside the banned nations, sells the same kind of glass and makes the same claims for it. Syntec Optics, an American rival, targets the same military buyers. And germanium itself is back on sale: China suspended its blanket export ban to the United States until 27 November 2026, easing the squeeze that made the switch urgent.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C08facthigh confidence
Umicore, the first company LightPath's own 10-K names as a competitor in moulded infrared optics, produces both germanium and its own GASIR family of chalcogenide glasses, and states that GASIR offers a wider transmission spectrum and much better athermalisation than germanium. It says its moulding process makes finished asphero-diffractive lens geometry in medium to large volume production.
C09facthigh confidence
Syntec Optics, a listed American molded-optics maker, tells its own shareholders that glass moulding has emerged as a leading technology for mid-wave and long-wave infrared 'especially with growing limitations on availability of Germanium', and names Defense and Security - night vision, infrared cameras, remote sensing, aiming - among its end markets.
C13facthigh confidence
China suspended the blanket prohibition on exporting germanium, gallium and antimony to the United States on 9 November 2025, suspending Article 2 of MOFCOM Announcement No. 46 of 2024 with effect until 27 November 2026. The separate prohibition on exporting dual-use items to United States military users or for military end uses was not suspended and remains in effect.
The rivals: OPTX, TDY, ESLT, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Umicore N.V.Priced against it: Listed abroad | On sale | Listed abroad | |
| OPTX | Syntec Optics HoldingsPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| Not listed | Germanium itself, re-suppliedPriced against it: Not listed | On sale | Not listed |
| TDY | Teledyne FLIRPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| ESLT | Elbit SystemsPriced against it: One segment only | On sale | One segment only |
How big it could get
How big this could get
Only one of LightPath's markets has a published count: American border surveillance towers. Homeland Security plans to go from about 830 camera-carrying towers to 2,300 by 2034, spending about $1B. At one camera a tower and the company's own price band, that is roughly $150M to $300M of camera content, about $20M to $40M a year. LightPath's orders on hand equal about a ninth of the programme's spend.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C15factmedium confidence
The Department of Homeland Security plans to expand its Integrated Surveillance Towers programme from about 830 fielded towers to 2,300 by 2034, at an expected cost of about $1 billion. Each tower carries radar and thermal infrared and optical systems to track targets over long distances.
C16management claimmedium confidence
LightPath describes the average selling price of its 'LightPath 3.0' camera and system products as being 'in tens of thousands, and sometimes hundreds of thousands' of dollars, against hundreds of dollars for a LightPath 2.0 assembly and single dollars for a component.
against this
The band spans an order of magnitude and is the company's own, so any prize composed on it inherits that spread. Nothing filed states an actual unit price or an actual unit count for any camera LightPath sells.
C23facthigh confidence
Backlog was about $110.9M at 30 June 2026, up 197% from $37.4M a year earlier and level with the $110.6M reported three months before. About $85.6M of it is scheduled for delivery within twelve months, and on the fourth-quarter call management put roughly $86M in fiscal 2027. The 30 June 2025 figure itself included $16.6M of G5 Infrared product backlog, so the pre-G5 remainder was $20.8M, an 8% increase on the prior year end.
sourceFiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results release,…primaryFourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, question section…primaryLightPath Technologies Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended…primary
- 2026-09-20editedthe fiscal 2026 results moved backlog to $110.9M and showed it flat on the March quarter, which the March-dated claim could not say
- 2026-09-26editedas_of corrected from 2026-03-31 to 2026-06-30: the 20 September edit restated the claim on the 30 June backlog from the fiscal 2026 release (S19) and left the March date on it.
Who has signed
The orders are real but mostly unnamed. Motorola Solutions, its largest customer, placed camera orders of $18.2M, $22.1M and $11.0M. A counter-drone supplier ordered $13.0M of assemblies, and L3Harris $2.2M of Navy development cameras. Nobody has signed for the border towers: in May management said the funding had not been released.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C21facthigh confidence
In September 2025 LightPath announced an $18.2M purchase order for infrared cameras from a leading global technology customer for delivery in calendar 2026, followed two weeks later by a $22.1M follow-on order for a second tranche in calendar 2027. On 15 July 2026 it announced a further $11M follow-on order from the same described customer.
C24management claimmedium confidence
On the May 2026 call management said G5 had booked more than $100M of new orders in the year since acquisition, that cameras and assemblies were 44% of revenue and more than $75M of the backlog, that around $30M of backlog was counter-UAS work primarily on Air Force programmes, and that Motorola Solutions is LightPath's largest customer.
against this
More than $100M booked at G5 against $110.6M of total company backlog would mean G5 is effectively the whole order book, which sits oddly beside the $75M cameras-and-assemblies figure given in the same remarks. The two are reconcilable only if a large part of G5's bookings had already converted to revenue or sit outside the twelve-month backlog definition, and management did not reconcile them.
C22facthigh confidence
On 13 October 2026 LightPath announced a further $6.3M follow-on optical assembly order from the same counter-UAS and defence systems supplier, saying total awards from that customer since 1 July exceed $19M, double its orders for fiscal 2026; this followed $13M of follow-on optical assembly orders announced on 22 July 2026. In fiscal 2025 it had announced $9.7M of cooled infrared camera orders for counter-unmanned-aerial applications with an existing defence customer for fiscal 2026 delivery, and a $2.2M engineering development model order from L3Harris for the Navy's SPEIR programme.
sourceLightPath release, 13 October 2026 - $6.3M follow-on optical…primaryLightPath Technologies order announcements of 15 and 22 July…primaryLightPath Technologies fiscal 2025 full-year results,…primary
- 2026-10-13editedA further $6.3M follow-on optical assembly order from the same counter-UAS supplier was announced on 13 October, taking its awards since 1 July above $19M.
The results
The numbers
Is it growing?Fast
Sales grew 93% in the year to Jun 2026, faster than the 17% in the year before.
Is it profitable?Losing
Operating margin is −27%, down from −11% in the year to Jun 2023.
Does growth pay off?Unclear
Running costs take 63¢ of each sales dollar, up from 41¢ in the year to Jun 2022.
Does it earn good returns?Poor
Shareholders' money lost 25% a year, down from −11% in the year to Jun 2022.
How long can it keep going?Long runway
It used $16.5M of cash in the latest year, so the $93.2M it holds lasts about 5.7 years at that pace.
How steady is it?Swingy
Yearly sales growth has ranged from −7.6% to +93% over the last 5 years, with sales falling in 3 of them.
Are shares being diluted?Diluting
The share count rose 98% in 4.0 years, and pay in shares costs 4.0% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in June.
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | |||||
| Sales | $35.6M | $32.9M | $31.7M | $37.2M | $71.7M |
| Sales growth | −7.6% | −7.4% | −3.7% | +17% | +93% |
| Profit | |||||
| Gross margin | 33% | 34% | 27% | 27% | 36% |
| Operating margin | −7.4% | −11% | −25% | −32% | −27% |
| Net margin | −10.0% | −12% | −25% | −40% | −29% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | |||||
| Research and development | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.3% |
| Selling, general and admin | 32% | 35% | 39% | 43% | 34% |
| Pay in shares | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% |
| Capital spending | 4.6% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 8.7% |
| Cash | |||||
| Cash from operations | $1.46M | −$2.81M | $521K | −$8.33M | −$10.2M |
| Free cash flow | −$162K | −$5.89M | −$1.66M | −$9.59M | −$16.5M |
| Balance sheet | |||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $5.51M | $4.69M | - | $4.88M | $93.2M |
| Debt | $3.22M | $1.55M | $326K | $4.80M | - |
| Net cash | $2.29M | $3.14M | - | $72.0K | - |
| Returns and shares | |||||
| Shares (diluted) | 27.0M | 31.6M | 37.9M | 40.9M | 53.4M |
What growth costs
Growing has not yet made LightPath cheaper to run. Office and selling costs took a bigger share of each sales dollar for four years while sales went nowhere, then fell back when bought companies doubled sales, but only to about where they were five years ago. Most of last year's improvement came from earning more on each part made, not from spreading costs.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C61facthigh confidence
Per sales dollar, selling, general and administrative cost was 31.2 cents in fiscal 2021, rose each year to 42.5 cents in fiscal 2025 while revenue went from $38.5M to $31.7M and back to $37.2M, and fell to 34.4 cents in fiscal 2026 on $71.7M. New product development, tagged as ResearchAndDevelopmentExpense, went 5.6, 8.2 and 5.3 cents; stock pay 1.7, 2.8 and 4.0; capital spending 8.2, 3.4 and 8.7.
sourceLightPath Technologies Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended…primaryLightPath Technologies Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended…primaryForm 10-K for the year ended 30 June 2026primary
against this
- More than half of fiscal 2026's growth was bought (C27), so part of the fall is acquired revenue arriving faster than its overhead, and selling, general and administrative dollars still rose 56%.
- On nearly twice fiscal 2021's revenue, selling, general and administrative per sales dollar is higher than it was then.
C62inferencemedium confidence
Before the earnout revaluation, amortisation of acquired intangibles and asset-sale gains, gross profit less selling, general and administrative and new product development was a loss of about 3.7 cents per sales dollar in fiscal 2026, against 23.5 cents in fiscal 2025 and 1.8 cents in fiscal 2021. Most of the improvement on fiscal 2025 is gross margin, 27.2% to 36.0%, rather than operating cost.
derivedC61's cost lines and the gross profit on the same income statements (S18, S01, S30)
against this
The excluded items are real costs: the $15.6M earnout revaluation in fiscal 2026 is the price of the G5 acquisition, and the operating margin with it was negative 27.4%.
The last report (10 Sep)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
73%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
10.5%
Growth from the quarter before
against 17.1% the quarter before that
-20¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales
The fiscal year to 30 June 2026 looked like a doubling: revenue rose 92.7%. The company's own table, restated as if its two acquisitions had always been owned, says 38.7%. The rest was bought.
The June quarter did show real progress, with gross margin at 39.4% against 22.0% a year earlier. But the like-for-like loss before tax more than doubled, to $20.1M for the year, orders on hand were flat from March, and the redesign of the bought cameras onto its own glass slipped again.
What it did to the thesisIt weakened the growth story: most of the reported doubling was bought, the like-for-like loss widened, orders stalled and the camera redesign slipped again. Better margins are real progress, but the price counts on a size and profit LightPath has never had, so the view stays Unattractive.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures. The company has restated its own history, so a quarter either side of the restatement may describe a different business; n/c marks one that does not compare.
Earnings per share $-0.02 against $-0.01 expected.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C27facthigh confidence
The annual report's own pro forma table, prepared as if G5 had been owned from 1 July 2023 and Amorphous from 1 July 2024, puts fiscal 2026 revenue at $73,280,192 against $52,828,817 - growth of 38.7% rather than the reported 92.7% - and pro forma loss before income taxes at $20,052,850 against $8,842,465. The same table in the third-quarter 10-Q put the March quarter at $19,186,814 against $11,277,802, growth of 70.1% rather than the reported 109%, and the nine months at growth of 32.7% rather than 102%.
sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 30 June 2026primaryLightPath Technologies Form 10-Q for the quarterly period…primary
- 2026-09-20editedthe full-year pro forma table landed in the 10-K and answers the pre-registered question directly: 38.7% like-for-like against a 92.7% headline
C25facthigh confidence
Revenue in the quarter ended 30 June 2026 was $21.2M against $12.2M, up 73.8%, with gross profit of $8.3M or 39.4% of revenue against 22.0%. Operating expenses of $12.6M included a $3.4M fair-value adjustment to the acquisition earnout liabilities; excluding it they rose to $9.2M. The net loss was $4.0M, or $0.06 a share, against $7.1M and $0.16. In the preceding March quarter revenue was $19,149,814 against $9,167,627, up 109%, with gross profit of $6,956,283 or 36.3% against 29.1%.
sourceFiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results release,…primaryLightPath Technologies third quarter fiscal 2026 results,…primaryLightPath Technologies Form 10-Q for the quarterly period…primary
- 2026-09-20editedthe June quarter printed: 39.4% gross margin against the 36.3% this claim recorded for March, which is the highest reading in the series
- 2026-09-26editedperiod widened from the March quarter to 2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30: since the 20 September edit the claim leads with the June quarter (S19, re-read: revenue $21.2M, gross margin 39.4%, operating expenses $12.6M including $3.4M of earnout remeasurement) and keeps the March quarter beside it.
C23facthigh confidence
Backlog was about $110.9M at 30 June 2026, up 197% from $37.4M a year earlier and level with the $110.6M reported three months before. About $85.6M of it is scheduled for delivery within twelve months, and on the fourth-quarter call management put roughly $86M in fiscal 2027. The 30 June 2025 figure itself included $16.6M of G5 Infrared product backlog, so the pre-G5 remainder was $20.8M, an 8% increase on the prior year end.
sourceFiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results release,…primaryFourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, question section…primaryLightPath Technologies Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended…primary
- 2026-09-20editedthe fiscal 2026 results moved backlog to $110.9M and showed it flat on the March quarter, which the March-dated claim could not say
- 2026-09-26editedas_of corrected from 2026-03-31 to 2026-06-30: the 20 September edit restated the claim on the 30 June backlog from the fiscal 2026 release (S19) and left the March date on it.
C14facthigh confidence
Only two of G5 Infrared's cameras used BlackDiamond as at May 2026. Management said the remaining G5 cameras still used germanium and are 'the majority of their revenue by dollars', and that the Amorphous acquisition was the missing piece needed to complete the redesign of the larger ones. On the September 2026 call the chief executive was asked about the delay to that redesign and named two causes: stretched detector supply, and Amorphous melting that glass at that size for the first time - he compared it to LightPath's own three years from licensing the novel materials to producing them.
sourceLightPath Technologies third quarter fiscal 2026 earnings callprimaryFourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, question section…primary
- 2026-09-20editedthe September call disclosed that the redesign of the larger cameras has slipped, and why, which the May-dated claim recorded as pending rather than late
What management did with the money
It bought its growth partly with shares. G5 Infrared cost $20.3M in cash plus shares and an earnout of up to $23.0M; Amorphous cost $7.0M plus shares. In June the company raised $50M selling stock at $14.00, and a director's fund sold the same number of shares at the same price, having converted them at $2.15.
Insiders in 2026Q2: 1 purchases and 6 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C30facthigh confidence
G5 Infrared cost $20.3M of cash plus 1,972,501 shares at $2.47, with an earnout of up to $23.0M over two years payable 70% in cash and 30% in stock. The first earnout was paid in the March 2026 quarter at $7.3M cash and $3.2M in 297,445 shares. A side letter of 16 April 2026 fixed the second at $9.0M - $6.3M cash and $2.7M stock - payable between 1 and 15 January 2027.
C31facthigh confidence
Amorphous Materials was bought on 21 January 2026 for $7.0M in cash plus contingent consideration of up to $3.0M payable in stock across six milestone tranches, of which two were met by March 2026 for 83,518 shares. Preliminary total consideration was about $9.2M, of which $5.6M was recorded as goodwill.
C35facthigh confidence
On 1 June 2026 LightPath and North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP agreed to sell 7,142,800 shares at $14.00 each - 3,571,400 by the company for $50M gross before a 4.5% placement fee, and 3,571,400 by North Run, from which the company received nothing.
C36facthigh confidence
North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP, a director and ten per cent owner, converted Series G preferred into 3,571,400 common shares at $2.15 on 2 June 2026 and sold the same number at $14.00 the next day. It had already sold 348,336 shares between 12 and 18 May at $12.16 to $12.32. Its holding fell from 6,506,228 shares to 2,934,828.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Full. The price pays for LightPath reaching a size and a profit it has never had. The law pushing the US military off Chinese optics is real, but the price already counts on it.
Share price
$8.37
close,
Price for each $1 of net worth
3.4
rivals' middle 6.0
The shares returned 249.1% in the year to August; by 25 September they were 47.3% below their high of $18.94 and up 45.5% on the year. The law's dates are fixed: an interim report on the Pentagon's glass strategy is due by 15 March 2027, and germanium becomes a banned material in American military equipment on 18 December 2027.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C40facthigh confidence
Against its own history the multiple has re-rated roughly fivefold, down from eightfold in August. At the 25 September close of $9.98 price to sales is 8.7 times against a six-year median of 1.65; the pack's enterprise value to sales is unusable this time (C39), against a six-year median of 1.66. The shares returned 45.5% over 252 days, against 249.1% in the pack of 25 August, and sit 47.3% below a 252-day high of $18.94, on a 20-day average intraday range of 6.7%, the volatile bucket.
sourceResearch pack for LPTH, refreshed 2026-09-26 and frozen at…secondaryResearch pack for LPTH, frozen at…primary
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the pack refreshed 2026-09-26 at the 25 September close, $9.98 against $13.23: price to sales 8.7 times rather than 13.2, the 252-day return 45.5% rather than 249.1% (kept beside it as the August reading), and the 20-day range 6.7%, which moves the name from very volatile to volatile. The pack's enterprise value to sales is no longer usable.
C18facthigh confidence
Section 834 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026, enacted 18 December 2025, requires that 'The Secretary of Defense shall develop and implement a strategy to eliminate the reliance of the Department of Defense on any covered nation to acquire optical glass or optical systems by January 1, 2030.' The covered nations are North Korea, China, Russia, Belarus and Iran. The strategy must be implemented within 270 days of enactment, and an interim report on progress is due to the congressional defence committees by 15 March 2027.
C19facthigh confidence
Section 844 of the same Act is a prohibition rather than a strategy. It adds germanium and gallium to the covered-material list in section 4872 of title 10 of the United States Code - the provision barring the Department of Defense from acquiring an end item containing a covered material melted or produced in a covered nation - with effect two years after enactment, which is 18 December 2027.
The betPriced for success
If it works
1.2×
from today's value, valued like the cheaper of its two rivals
If it fails
keep 25%
of today's market value: what the worst case leaves shareholders
How we read the multiple
Net of its cash, buyers pay about $606M for the business: more than 8 times last year's sales. It has lost money every year since fiscal 2021.
Suppose LightPath reached:
- $150M of sales a year, nearly double today's pace.
- 20 cents of operating profit on each dollar of sales, about what the far larger Teledyne earns.
- That is $30M of profit, and today's price would still be about 20 times it.
- Its best year in nine earned 14.6 cents per dollar, on $28M of sales.
Against its own history. Many times its own normal. The market has priced the law in, and a return to the old normal would treat that real change as worth nothing.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C48inferencemedium confidence
At the 25 September close of $9.98 the market is paying roughly $606M of enterprise value for about $85M of annualised revenue and no operating profit. On the 70,036,252 shares outstanding on 8 September the market value is about $699M; net cash at 30 June was about $93.0M, cash of $93,204,655 less $187,195 of loans payable, leaving about $606M of enterprise value. That is about 7.2 times the June quarter annualised at $84.6M, and 8.4 times fiscal 2026 revenue of $71.7M.
derivedThe filed share count from C38 at the 25 September close, less the 30 June cash and loans payable in the fiscal 2026 annual report. The $6.3M cash earnout due in January 2027 and $10.7M of lease liabilities are left out, which flatters the company slightly. Revenue is read both as the fiscal year and as the June quarter multiplied by four, the company's best quarter.
against this
- Annualising a single quarter is the aggressive assumption in the other direction: the June quarter was the company's best, and the two July orders and the $110.9M backlog say the next four quarters should be larger, not equal. On the single analyst's $105.6M for fiscal 2027 the same enterprise value is about 5.7 times, which is a different-looking number for the same company.
- About $4.5M of annual revenue leaves with the Chinese subsidiary once that sale closes, so the run-rate being annualised includes revenue that will not recur.
- 2026-09-26editedThe claim now states the trailing-revenue multiple, 12.9 to 13.5 times on the restated share count, which the reconsider price condition was struck on and cites C48 for; the search note had set the vendor's 12.5, struck on a share count C38 shows 8.9% short, as the top of the range.
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck at the 25 September close ($9.98, from $13.23) on the filed share count (C38) and the filed 30 June cash, replacing the estimated $95M. Enterprise value about $606M rather than $810M to $850M: 8.4 times fiscal 2026 revenue of $71.7M rather than 12.9 to 13.5 times $62.8M, and 7.2 times the June quarter annualised rather than 10.6 to 11.1 times March's.
C49inferencemedium confidence
For the enterprise value to be reasonable on any conventional measure, LightPath has to reach a scale and a margin it has never held. At $150M of revenue - about 1.8 times the June-quarter run-rate and just above the single analyst's fiscal 2028 estimate of $145.9M - a 20% operating margin would produce $30M of operating profit, which is about 20 times today's enterprise value. Teledyne earns 19.4%, and on its filed fiscal 2026 operating margin of minus 27.4% LightPath is the lowest of the three (C41). Against its own history the highest reading in nine years is 14.6%, on $28M of revenue in fiscal 2017, and every year since fiscal 2021 has been negative.
derivedEnterprise value from the preceding claim, revenue from the analyst estimate, and the margin bracketed between the only comparable that earns one and the subject's own nine-year record. Nothing here is the company's own projection.
against this
The backlog is a partial answer to the scale half. $110.9M at 30 June, plus $24M announced in July, against an $84.6M annualised run-rate, means most of the growth to $150M does not depend on winning anything new - only on converting what is booked and adding capacity, which is what the $6.0M of approved capital expenditure is for.
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck on C48's enterprise value at the 25 September close: $30M of operating profit is about 20 times it rather than 28, and 12% gives about 34 times rather than 47. The run-rate is the June quarter's, and the lowest-margin comparison now reads the filed operating loss because the vendor's no longer matches it (C41).
C40facthigh confidence
Against its own history the multiple has re-rated roughly fivefold, down from eightfold in August. At the 25 September close of $9.98 price to sales is 8.7 times against a six-year median of 1.65; the pack's enterprise value to sales is unusable this time (C39), against a six-year median of 1.66. The shares returned 45.5% over 252 days, against 249.1% in the pack of 25 August, and sit 47.3% below a 252-day high of $18.94, on a 20-day average intraday range of 6.7%, the volatile bucket.
sourceResearch pack for LPTH, refreshed 2026-09-26 and frozen at…secondaryResearch pack for LPTH, frozen at…primary
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the pack refreshed 2026-09-26 at the 25 September close, $9.98 against $13.23: price to sales 8.7 times rather than 13.2, the 252-day return 45.5% rather than 249.1% (kept beside it as the August reading), and the 20-day range 6.7%, which moves the name from very volatile to volatile. The pack's enterprise value to sales is no longer usable.
C41facthigh confidence
Within the cohort built from LightPath's own annual report, LightPath is no longer the dearest of three on price to sales: at the 25 September close it is 8.7 times against Teledyne's 4.5 and Syntec Optics' 10.2, the middle of three around a median of 7.35. The pack withholds its enterprise value to sales, where Teledyne is 4.7 and Syntec 9.9, because the vendor's enterprise value for LightPath is unusable (C39); this thesis's own figure (C48) falls between the two. On revenue growth it is the fastest of three and on gross margin the middle one. On operating margin the vendor now ranks it the middle one, at minus 1.6% against Syntec's minus 4.6%, but the filed fiscal 2026 figure is an operating loss of $19,654,305 on revenue of $71,722,099, minus 27.4%, and minus 5.6% even before the $15,636,336 revaluation of acquisition liabilities, so on the filings it is the worst of the three.
sourceResearch pack for LPTH, refreshed 2026-09-26 and frozen at…secondaryForm 10-K for the year ended 30 June 2026primary
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the pack refreshed 2026-09-26. The price fell about a quarter and Syntec's multiple fell less, so LightPath is now the middle of three on sales, not the dearest; the pack cannot rank its enterprise value, and the vendor's operating margin for it no longer matches the filing, which still puts it last.
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on price for each $1 of net worth, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | price for each $1 of net worth |
|---|---|---|
| TDY | Teledyne Technologies Incorporated | 2.6× |
| LPTH | LightPath Technologies | 3.4× |
| OPTX | Syntec Optics Holdings | 9.5× |
The middle of the other 2 is 6.0. LightPath Technologies, Inc. is 2nd cheapest of 3.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
The vendor's company value for LightPath is unusable, so the table shows book value. On sales it now sits between Teledyne and Syntec Optics, with the thinnest operating margin.
Also checked and set aside: Coherent (a substitute, not the same product); MKS (a substitute, not the same product); Lockheed Martin (a substitute, not the same product); RTX (a substitute, not the same product).
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Umicore N.V., Rochester Precision Optics, LLC, Janos Technology LLC, Clear Align LLC, Controp Precision Technologies Ltd., Anduril Industries, Inc., Sunny Optical Technology (Group) Company Limited, HOYA Corporation, Panasonic Corporation, Alps Electric Co., Ltd., Asia Optical Co., Inc., E-Pin Optical Industry Co., Ltd., Kinik Company, Anteryon BV.
The bet: what it pays if it works
Even if this works, the shares look expensive. The best case we can defend is one analyst's sales forecast for 2028, close to double today's sales. Valued like the cheaper of its two listed rivals, that is worth about what the company costs today. Management's much larger goal is five years away, and most of it is unsigned.
If it fails, shareholders keep the cash raised this year and an old lens business that barely grew for nine years, worth a fraction of today's price.
| Revenue in two to three years | Camera systems a year needed | Valued like its peers | Like the cheapest |
|---|---|---|---|
| $145.90M (the big win) | about 1.1K at 100% kept | 2.0× | 1.2× |
| $200.00M | about 1.6K at 100% kept | 2.8× | 1.7× |
| $230.00M (market forecast) | about 1.9K at 100% kept | 3.2× | 2.0× |
Analysts size defence infrared imaging near $5.4 billion by 2030 before the counter-drone budget's jump; a 4% share, about three times today's, gives about $230 million of revenue in fiscal 2029. On that forecast, $230.00M pays 2.0× from today's value: an Expensive bet on the market case.
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $233.58M of revenue (about 2.0K camera systems a year); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $583.94M of revenue (about 5.5K camera systems a year), at the same multiple.
The steps it has to take
- Done Backlog roughly tripled in a year, to $110.9M
- Done A quarter at 39.4% gross margin, near management's 40% aim
- Done The scale-up funded: about $93M of net cash after the June raise
- In progress First-quarter fiscal 2027: gross margin at or above 38% and backlog above $115M due 2026-11-15
- In progress The qualified airborne system awarded due 2026-11-30
- In progress G5's larger, germanium-based cameras redesigned onto BlackDiamond due 2027-06
- Not started The section 834 interim report lands on time, with the section 844 germanium ban not deferred due 2027-03-15
- Not started Gross margin at or above 38% in the June 2027 quarter, like-for-like growth above 15%, backlog above $90M due 2027-09-30
- Not started Border-tower camera orders signed once the programme is funded due 2027-12
- Not started Fiscal 2028 revenue near $146M due 2028-09
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
At their midpoint
2.0×
the same success, valued between the two
Cheap bet at about
$2.09
75% below the price (close, )
Market case
2.0×
an expensive bet if the market forecast holds
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C42facthigh confidence
The analyst snapshot is still ten buy ratings with no holds and no sells, though the dated series behind it counts five analysts. One contributor now puts the fiscal 2027 top line at $105.6M with a loss of $0.016 a share, and one puts fiscal 2028 at $145.9M and $0.11 a share, against $139.5M and $0.51 in August. Fiscal 2026 closed at $71.7M of revenue against a $71.2M consensus.
sourceResearch pack for LPTH, refreshed 2026-09-26 and frozen at…secondaryForm 10-K for the year ended 30 June 2026primary
- 2026-09-26editedRe-read on the pack refreshed 2026-09-26: fiscal 2027 now rests on one contributor at $105.6M rather than two at $104.8M, the fiscal 2028 estimate moved to $145.9M and $0.11 a share from $139.5M and $0.51, and fiscal 2026 has closed at $71.7M.
C47management claimlow confidence
At an investor day in February 2026 management set out a three-pillar growth strategy targeting in excess of $300M of annual revenue within five years, anchored by assemblies, infrared camera systems and large defence programmes.
against this
Reaching $300M from a $76M annualised run-rate is a compound rate near 32% a year for five consecutive years, against a company whose revenue was lower in fiscal 2024 than in fiscal 2021 and whose like-for-like growth this year is 32.7%. The target requires the current rate to hold for five years with no acquisitions, and every acceleration so far has been bought.
C23facthigh confidence
Backlog was about $110.9M at 30 June 2026, up 197% from $37.4M a year earlier and level with the $110.6M reported three months before. About $85.6M of it is scheduled for delivery within twelve months, and on the fourth-quarter call management put roughly $86M in fiscal 2027. The 30 June 2025 figure itself included $16.6M of G5 Infrared product backlog, so the pre-G5 remainder was $20.8M, an 8% increase on the prior year end.
sourceFiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results release,…primaryFourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, question section…primaryLightPath Technologies Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended…primary
- 2026-09-20editedthe fiscal 2026 results moved backlog to $110.9M and showed it flat on the March quarter, which the March-dated claim could not say
- 2026-09-26editedas_of corrected from 2026-03-31 to 2026-06-30: the 20 September edit restated the claim on the 30 June backlog from the fiscal 2026 release (S19) and left the March date on it.
C48inferencemedium confidence
At the 25 September close of $9.98 the market is paying roughly $606M of enterprise value for about $85M of annualised revenue and no operating profit. On the 70,036,252 shares outstanding on 8 September the market value is about $699M; net cash at 30 June was about $93.0M, cash of $93,204,655 less $187,195 of loans payable, leaving about $606M of enterprise value. That is about 7.2 times the June quarter annualised at $84.6M, and 8.4 times fiscal 2026 revenue of $71.7M.
derivedThe filed share count from C38 at the 25 September close, less the 30 June cash and loans payable in the fiscal 2026 annual report. The $6.3M cash earnout due in January 2027 and $10.7M of lease liabilities are left out, which flatters the company slightly. Revenue is read both as the fiscal year and as the June quarter multiplied by four, the company's best quarter.
against this
- Annualising a single quarter is the aggressive assumption in the other direction: the June quarter was the company's best, and the two July orders and the $110.9M backlog say the next four quarters should be larger, not equal. On the single analyst's $105.6M for fiscal 2027 the same enterprise value is about 5.7 times, which is a different-looking number for the same company.
- About $4.5M of annual revenue leaves with the Chinese subsidiary once that sale closes, so the run-rate being annualised includes revenue that will not recur.
- 2026-09-26editedThe claim now states the trailing-revenue multiple, 12.9 to 13.5 times on the restated share count, which the reconsider price condition was struck on and cites C48 for; the search note had set the vendor's 12.5, struck on a share count C38 shows 8.9% short, as the top of the range.
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck at the 25 September close ($9.98, from $13.23) on the filed share count (C38) and the filed 30 June cash, replacing the estimated $95M. Enterprise value about $606M rather than $810M to $850M: 8.4 times fiscal 2026 revenue of $71.7M rather than 12.9 to 13.5 times $62.8M, and 7.2 times the June quarter annualised rather than 10.6 to 11.1 times March's.
C29facthigh confidence
Fiscal 2025 revenue was $37,202,630, up 17.3%, on a 27.2% gross margin and a negative 31.8% operating margin. The nine-year record from fiscal 2017 is revenue of $28.4M, $32.5M, $33.7M, $35.0M, $38.5M, $35.6M, $32.9M, $31.7M and $37.2M, with an operating margin positive in only two of those years and negative in every year since fiscal 2021.
C40facthigh confidence
Against its own history the multiple has re-rated roughly fivefold, down from eightfold in August. At the 25 September close of $9.98 price to sales is 8.7 times against a six-year median of 1.65; the pack's enterprise value to sales is unusable this time (C39), against a six-year median of 1.66. The shares returned 45.5% over 252 days, against 249.1% in the pack of 25 August, and sit 47.3% below a 252-day high of $18.94, on a 20-day average intraday range of 6.7%, the volatile bucket.
sourceResearch pack for LPTH, refreshed 2026-09-26 and frozen at…secondaryResearch pack for LPTH, frozen at…primary
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the pack refreshed 2026-09-26 at the 25 September close, $9.98 against $13.23: price to sales 8.7 times rather than 13.2, the 252-day return 45.5% rather than 249.1% (kept beside it as the August reading), and the 20-day range 6.7%, which moves the name from very volatile to volatile. The pack's enterprise value to sales is no longer usable.
Where we disagree with the market
The market believes
A pure play on bringing optics home, whose revenue doubled. Ten analysts say buy and none hold or sell.
We believe
The law is real. But more than half the growth was bought, and the protection is one licence wide.
Nobody quotes the table. The quarterly filing gave like-for-like growth of 32.7% for nine months on the same day the results release led with 102%.
The case against us is fair: like-for-like growth rose from 3.6% to 38.7% for the year, gross margin from 27.2% to 36.0%, and the company's adjusted cash-profit measure has been positive four quarters running.
What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
100%
of 5, 1 Sep
Four months earlier
100%
of 5, 1 May
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C42facthigh confidence
The analyst snapshot is still ten buy ratings with no holds and no sells, though the dated series behind it counts five analysts. One contributor now puts the fiscal 2027 top line at $105.6M with a loss of $0.016 a share, and one puts fiscal 2028 at $145.9M and $0.11 a share, against $139.5M and $0.51 in August. Fiscal 2026 closed at $71.7M of revenue against a $71.2M consensus.
sourceResearch pack for LPTH, refreshed 2026-09-26 and frozen at…secondaryForm 10-K for the year ended 30 June 2026primary
- 2026-09-26editedRe-read on the pack refreshed 2026-09-26: fiscal 2027 now rests on one contributor at $105.6M rather than two at $104.8M, the fiscal 2028 estimate moved to $145.9M and $0.11 a share from $139.5M and $0.51, and fiscal 2026 has closed at $71.7M.
C27facthigh confidence
The annual report's own pro forma table, prepared as if G5 had been owned from 1 July 2023 and Amorphous from 1 July 2024, puts fiscal 2026 revenue at $73,280,192 against $52,828,817 - growth of 38.7% rather than the reported 92.7% - and pro forma loss before income taxes at $20,052,850 against $8,842,465. The same table in the third-quarter 10-Q put the March quarter at $19,186,814 against $11,277,802, growth of 70.1% rather than the reported 109%, and the nine months at growth of 32.7% rather than 102%.
sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 30 June 2026primaryLightPath Technologies Form 10-Q for the quarterly period…primary
- 2026-09-20editedthe full-year pro forma table landed in the 10-K and answers the pre-registered question directly: 38.7% like-for-like against a 92.7% headline
C26facthigh confidence
For the nine months to 31 March 2026 revenue was $50,559,747 against $24,992,837, gross profit $17,459,185 or 34.5%, and the net loss $16,404,698 against $7,817,202. Of that loss, $12,234,529 is the change in fair value of acquisition earnout liabilities. Adjusted EBITDA was positive $2,136,269 against negative $3,083,165, and the March quarter was the third consecutive positive one.
C25facthigh confidence
Revenue in the quarter ended 30 June 2026 was $21.2M against $12.2M, up 73.8%, with gross profit of $8.3M or 39.4% of revenue against 22.0%. Operating expenses of $12.6M included a $3.4M fair-value adjustment to the acquisition earnout liabilities; excluding it they rose to $9.2M. The net loss was $4.0M, or $0.06 a share, against $7.1M and $0.16. In the preceding March quarter revenue was $19,149,814 against $9,167,627, up 109%, with gross profit of $6,956,283 or 36.3% against 29.1%.
sourceFiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results release,…primaryLightPath Technologies third quarter fiscal 2026 results,…primaryLightPath Technologies Form 10-Q for the quarterly period…primary
- 2026-09-20editedthe June quarter printed: 39.4% gross margin against the 36.3% this claim recorded for March, which is the highest reading in the series
- 2026-09-26editedperiod widened from the March quarter to 2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30: since the 20 September edit the claim leads with the June quarter (S19, re-read: revenue $21.2M, gross margin 39.4%, operating expenses $12.6M including $3.4M of earnout remeasurement) and keeps the March quarter beside it.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- Glass nobody has made at size. The larger camera redesigns wait on the acquired plant melting glass that big for the first time; management compares it to its own three-year ramp.
- More shares to come. About 3.0 million more shares are still due from preferred stock convertible at $2.15, after 8.7 million were issued that way last year.
- No guidance, erratic results. The company gives no guidance, and in four of its last six reports earnings per share missed forecasts by 100% or more.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C14facthigh confidence
Only two of G5 Infrared's cameras used BlackDiamond as at May 2026. Management said the remaining G5 cameras still used germanium and are 'the majority of their revenue by dollars', and that the Amorphous acquisition was the missing piece needed to complete the redesign of the larger ones. On the September 2026 call the chief executive was asked about the delay to that redesign and named two causes: stretched detector supply, and Amorphous melting that glass at that size for the first time - he compared it to LightPath's own three years from licensing the novel materials to producing them.
sourceLightPath Technologies third quarter fiscal 2026 earnings callprimaryFourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, question section…primary
- 2026-09-20editedthe September call disclosed that the redesign of the larger cameras has slipped, and why, which the May-dated claim recorded as pending rather than late
C38facthigh confidence
Shares outstanding were 69,963,045 at 30 June 2026 and 70,036,252 on 8 September 2026, the annual report's cover date. 18,464 Series G preferred shares were converted into 8,692,097 common shares during fiscal 2026, and 6,492 remained at 30 June; at $1,000 of stated value and the $2.15 conversion price those are about 3.02 million further common shares.
- 2026-09-26editedThe fiscal 2026 annual report now states the count, so the built estimate (68.35 million, and about 4.5 million still to come from the Series G) is replaced by the filed one: 69,963,045 at 30 June, 70,036,252 on 8 September, and 6,492 preferred shares left, about 3.02 million common. More of the dilution has already happened and less is still to come.
C43facthigh confidence
The record against consensus is erratic in both directions. Over six prints from May 2025 the per-share surprises were minus 100%, minus 433%, plus 17%, minus 400%, nil and minus 233%, while top-line surprises were minus 24.9%, minus 0.5%, plus 19.2%, plus 9.3%, plus 12.4% and plus 2.7%. LightPath issues no guidance of any kind.
- 2026-09-26editedThe pack refreshed 2026-09-26 carries the 10 September print: an adjusted loss of $0.02 a share against $0.006 expected, minus 233%, on revenue 2.7% above consensus. Six prints now, not five.
What we still do not know
- How firm the two largest orders are. They disclose no units, and their firmness rests on the company's own description.
- How fast $110.9M of orders becomes revenue. About $86M is scheduled for fiscal 2027.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C21facthigh confidence
In September 2025 LightPath announced an $18.2M purchase order for infrared cameras from a leading global technology customer for delivery in calendar 2026, followed two weeks later by a $22.1M follow-on order for a second tranche in calendar 2027. On 15 July 2026 it announced a further $11M follow-on order from the same described customer.
C23facthigh confidence
Backlog was about $110.9M at 30 June 2026, up 197% from $37.4M a year earlier and level with the $110.6M reported three months before. About $85.6M of it is scheduled for delivery within twelve months, and on the fourth-quarter call management put roughly $86M in fiscal 2027. The 30 June 2025 figure itself included $16.6M of G5 Infrared product backlog, so the pre-G5 remainder was $20.8M, an 8% increase on the prior year end.
sourceFiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results release,…primaryFourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, question section…primaryLightPath Technologies Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended…primary
- 2026-09-20editedthe fiscal 2026 results moved backlog to $110.9M and showed it flat on the March quarter, which the March-dated claim could not say
- 2026-09-26editedas_of corrected from 2026-03-31 to 2026-06-30: the 20 September edit restated the claim on the 30 June backlog from the fiscal 2026 release (S19) and left the March date on it.
What would change our view
- Unattractive→AttractiveThe margin arrives at a multiple that stopped assuming it
It needs all of:
- ○Gross margin reaches 38% by the June 2027 quarter, with like-for-like growth above 15% and orders on hand above $90M.checked at the next results, due by 15 Nov
- ○The business, net of cash, is valued at about 5 times a year's sales, whether sales grow or the price falls.about ≈$5.94 today, 29% below the last close
- Reopens the researchThe legislated demand survives its first test
It needs:
- ○The March 2027 glass-strategy report lands on time, the germanium ban holds, and no rival joins a named US military programme.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
- Another acquisition is announced, part paid in shares, before today's orders have been delivered.
What is coming
- 28 October 2026 Fiscal 2027 proxy statement: What insiders own after North Run's sales, whether the fiscal 2026 bonus paid on EBITDA, and whether pay starts rewarding per-share results rather than closing deals.
Every dated event ahead
- 28 October 2026 Fiscal 2027 proxy statement: What insiders own after North Run's sales, whether the fiscal 2026 bonus paid on EBITDA, and whether pay starts rewarding per-share results rather than closing deals.
- November 2026 First-quarter fiscal 2027 results: Whether the 39.4% gross margin holds a second quarter and backlog grows from $110.9M, with no new share-funded acquisition.
- 27 November 2026 China's suspension of its germanium export ban to the US expires: Whether the scarcity behind germanium-free optics returns or eases; the military end-use ban stays either way.
- 15 January 2027 Second G5 earnout payment: The last fixed acquisition payment, $6.3M cash and $2.7M in stock, and the end of earnout noise in the operating line.
Since we wrote this
Written
25 Aug
Price the thesis read
$9.98
25 Sep
Latest close
$8.37
close, · -16.1% since
- 13 OctNewsAnother $6.3M counter-drone optics order; view heldThe same counter-UAS supplier ordered $6.3M more optical assemblies, above $19M since July. It adds to a known programme and gives no margin, so the view held.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe bet now names what it ridesThe owner asked that every bet name the macro trend behind it, after BWXT's bet was missing its chief executive's case for nuclear over gas.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
- 26 SepThesis reviewBacklog dated to June; price condition's share count named; view heldParts of the page still quoted the March backlog of $110.6M; June's is $110.9M, level with March. The price condition now says its 12.9 times sales counts the shares issued in June.
- 26 SepThesis reviewShares down a quarter; no longer the dearest of its rivalsAt the 25 September close the business is valued at about 8.4 times last year's sales, from about 13 in August. That is still five times its own normal and needs a margin it has never earned.
- 20 SepEarningsStripped of acquisitions, the year grew 38.7%, not 92.7%. View heldGross margin rose to 39.4% in the June quarter, but the like-for-like loss before tax more than doubled, orders were flat and the camera redesign slipped again.
- 25 AugThesis writtenUnattractive, medium convictionWritten after the quarterly filing's own like-for-like table showed nine-month growth of 32.7% against a headline of 102%, with the shares at about 13 times sales.
Also checked 4 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 31
Where this came from
Sources - 31
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2025-09-26Item 1 in full - the four product groups, the BlackDiamond materials and the Naval Research Laboratory licence, the named competitors by product group, the germanium supply figures, the customer concentration table, the quarterly backlog table, the revenue-by-product-group table, and the G5 purchase accounting with the pro forma comparison.backsC01C03C04C05C06C07C08C11C12C16C23C29C45C61
- S02primarycompany filing2026-05-07The nine-month statements, the Series G terms and conversion history, the G5 earnout mechanics and the April 2026 side letter fixing year two, the Amorphous purchase terms, and the pro forma revenue including both acquisitions - the number this thesis turns on.backsC01C25C27C30C31C37
- S03primarycompany filing2026-05-07The quarter's headline figures, the product-group split, the adjusted EBITDA reconciliation, the balance sheet, the record backlog and the Investor Day revenue ambition.backsC02C07C11C25C26C32C34C45C47C50
- S04primarycompany filing2025-09-25The full-year release beside the annual report, and with it every order announced with the year - the $18.2M and $22.1M camera purchase orders, the $9.7M counter-UAV orders, the $2.2M L3Harris SPEIR development order and the $8.0M Ondas and Unusual Machines investment.backsC21C22
- S05primarytranscript2026-05-07The figures with no filed home: G5 booking more than $100M of orders in a year, cameras and assemblies at 44% of revenue and more than $75M of backlog, roughly $30M of backlog in counter-UAS, Motorola Solutions named as largest customer, glass capacity doubled by Amorphous, the 40% margin target slipping a quarter or two, and $6.0M of capital expenditure approved in the quarter.
When we look at our current cameras and assemblies business and we say it is around $75 million of new orders booked, that is all before we completed the redesign ... In the last year, G5 has booked more than $100 million of new orders ... This quarter that we're reporting in, they represent 44% of the revenue ... Currently, around $30 million of our backlog is Counter-UAS ... Motorola Solutions, our largest customer ... As of today, while all of our assemblies use BlackDiamond, only two of the G5 cameras are based on BlackDiamond glass. The remaining G5 cameras were still using germanium ... which is really the majority of their revenue by dollars ... we pretty much doubled our glass capacity ... up to 5 inches in diameter. Amorphous now unlocks the ability to do larger sizes up to as much as 10 inches ... in Q3 Sam and I approved $6.0 million in CapEx
backsC02C06C11C14C17C24C33C46 - S06primarycompany filing2026-06-03The June offering: 7,142,800 shares at $14.00, of which 3,571,400 sold by the company for $50M gross and 3,571,400 by North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP, on a 4.5% placement fee.backsC35
- S07primarycompany filing2026-07-23The sale of LightPath (Zhenjiang) Optical Instrumentation to its own incumbent management for $4.5M over five years, and the roughly $4.5M of annual third-party revenue that leaves consolidated revenue with it.backsC01C44
- S08primarycompany filing2026-06-04North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP - Forms 4 filed March to June 2026 North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LPWhat the largest holder did rather than what it said: Series G conversions struck at $2.15 and open-market and offering sales at $12.16 to $14.00, taking the holding from 6,506,228 shares to 2,934,828.backsC36
- S09primaryvendor data2026-08-25Price and the 252-day return, the 20-day range, the analyst panel and estimates, the six-year median multiples the current one is read against, the competitors:filed cohort, the earnings-surprise history and the Form 4 summary.backsC10C29C33C40
- S10primaryregulator2025-12-18The statute itself rather than anyone's summary of it: section 834's strategy, its 270-day implementation deadline, its 15 March 2027 interim report and its five covered nations - and section 844, which adds germanium and gallium to the covered-material prohibition in title 10 with effect two years after enactment.
SEC. 834. STRATEGY TO ELIMINATE ACQUISITION OF OPTICAL GLASS FROM CERTAIN NATIONS. (a) IN GENERAL.-The Secretary of Defense shall develop and implement a strategy to eliminate the reliance of the Department of Defense on any covered nation to acquire optical glass or optical systems by January 1, 2030. ... (c) IMPLEMENTATION.-Not later than 270 days after the date of enactment of this Act, the Secretary of Defense shall implement the strategy required by subsection (a). ... (2) INTERIM REPORT ON IMPLEMENTATION.-Not later than March 15, 2027, the Secretary of Defense shall submit to the congressional defense committees a report on the progress of the implementation of the strategy required by subsection (a) ... (e) DEFINITIONS ... The term covered nation means (A) the Democratic People's Republic of North Korea; (B) the People's Republic of China; (C) the Russian Federation; (D) the Republic of Belarus; and (E) the Islamic Republic of Iran. ... SEC. 844. PROHIBITION OF PROCUREMENT OF MOLYBDENUM, GALLIUM, OR GERMANIUM FROM NON-ALLIED FOREIGN NATIONS ... Section 4872(f)(1) of title 10, United States Code, as amended by subsection (a)(1), is further amended ... by adding at the end the following new subparagraphs: (G) germanium; and (H) gallium. ... (3) EFFECTIVE DATE.-The amendments made by paragraphs (1) and (2) shall take effect on the date that is two years after the date of the enactment of this Act.
backsC18C19 - S11secondarynews2025-11-13The counter-fact to the germanium scarcity story and the qualification that saves it: China suspended the blanket export ban to the United States from 9 November 2025 to 27 November 2026, and did not suspend the separate prohibition on military end-users.
Announcement No. 46, issued December 3, 2024. The suspension applies to "Article 2 of Announcement No. 46 of 2024 from November 9, 2025, until November 27, 2026" ... the prohibition of export of all dual-use items to U.S. military users or for U.S. military end uses...remains in effect
backsC13 - S12secondarynews2026-07-20The unit count the prize is built on, and the billion-dollar programme cost that bounds it.
from the current 830 to 2,300 by 2034 ... DHS expects to expend $1 billion in taxpayer dollars ... radar, thermal infrared and optical systems to track targets over long distances
backsC15 - S13primarycompany release2026-08-25The sentence a competitor writes about its own germanium substitute, which is very close to the sentence LightPath writes about BlackDiamond - and its own molding process for medium to large volume production.
Compared to germanium, the traditional infrared material, GASIR offers a wider transmission spectrum and much better athermalization possibilities.
backsC08 - S14primarycompany filing2026-03-31Syntec Optics Holdings Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 Syntec Optics Holdings, Inc.A second listed American molded-optics maker telling the market the same germanium story, and the cohort's only genuine like-for-like member.backsC09
- S15primarycompany filing2026-02-20Teledyne Technologies Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 28, 2025 Teledyne Technologies IncorporatedWhat the destination looks like when it is already reached and already profitable: cooled and uncooled infrared sensors, camera cores and complete camera systems inside a segment that is 52% of a company earning a 19.4% operating margin.backsC10C56
- S16primarycompany release2026-07-22The two orders booked after the quarter closed - $11M of follow-on infrared cameras on 15 July and $13M of follow-on optical assemblies on 22 July - which are the evidence that the backlog kept building after the last reported figure.
LightPath Technologies Receives $13 Million in Follow-On Optical Assembly Orders from Leading C-UAS & Defense Systems Supplier
backsC21C22 - S17primarygovernment data2024-11-19A government estimate of what a total ban does to the germanium price, against the company's own account of a fourfold rise - the outside measurement of the constraint the whole case rests on.
a $3.4 billion decrease in U.S. GDP if China implements a total ban on exports of gallium and germanium ... gallium prices could rise more than 150 percent and germanium prices by 26 percent in the case of a total ban
backsC20 - S18primarycompany filing2026-09-11Form 10-K for the year ended 30 June 2026 LightPath TechnologiesbacksC27C38C41C42C60C61C63C67C68
- S19primarycompany release2026-09-10Fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results release, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K LightPath TechnologiesbacksC23C25C46
- S20primarytranscript2026-09-10Fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, question section (call held 10 September 2026) LightPath Technologies
I think supply chains are stretched everywhere. And the redesign, while you know, does not require redesigning the entire camera, there is still mechanics and some other lenses that need to be redesigned and some changes. So we are we are starting to fill the supply chain, especially on the detector side. Impacting us across the board. ... while amorphous are able to melt the glass in that size. It is the first time or you know, 1 of the first times Amorphous was melting that glass. And melting those kind of glass is not a plug and play recipe.
backsC14C23 - S21secondaryvendor data2026-09-26backsC40C41C42C43
- S22primarygovernment data2026-02-05U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 - Germanium U.S. Geological Surveythe government's own count of the germanium squeeze: US metal imports down two-thirds in 2025, the annual average price from $1,991 to $4,100 a kilogram, and chalcogenide glass named as the infrared substitute; PDF read through ir_fetch's client and pdftotext
United States imports of germanium metal were estimated to have decreased by 67% in 2025 from those in 2024 to 7,000 kilograms owing to China's ban on germanium exports to the United States in 2024. ... Chalcogenide glass has been used as a substitute for germanium metal in infrared applications.
backsC51 - S23secondaryindustry data2025-08-28optics.org (SPIE) - Thermal imaging and sensing sector hits $7 billion milestone, driven by China, reporting Yole Group's Thermal Imaging & Sensing 2025 Yole Group, as reported by optics.organ independent analyst's size for defence and aerospace thermal imaging in 2030; Yole's own release answered HTTP 202 to ir_fetch and press_fetch found no other route, so it is read through SPIE's news site, with Electronics Weekly carrying the same figures
The thermal imaging and sensing market generated more than $7 billion in 2024, supported by a diverse ecosystem. Chinese players produced 60% of the thermal image sensors sold worldwide in 2024. The defense & aerospace segment is projected to reach nearly $4 billion by 2030, with a significant demand for integration in light UAVs.
backsC52 - S24secondaryindustry data2025-04-01Electronics Weekly - Defence demand drives IR image sensor market to 5% CAGR 2024-30, reporting Yole Group Yole Group, as reported by Electronics Weeklythe cooled-detector half of the defence infrared market, where G5's cameras sit, sized at the sensor level; read through ir_fetch
Defence demand drove the infrared image sensor market to more than $1 billion in 2024, says Yole Group. 2024-30 CAGR will be more than 5%. By 2030 the SWIR (Short-Wave Infra Red) market should reach almost $102 million, while cooled MWIR (Medium-Wave IR) and LWIR (Long-Wave IR) are targeting $1,179 million and $249 million, respectively.
backsC53 - S25primaryindustry data2026-10-01MarketsandMarkets - Thermal Imaging Market report summary page MarketsandMarketsa second analyst's size for the whole thermal imaging market, which conflicts with Yole's by about half; the page is undated and was read on the retrieval date through ir_fetch
The Thermal Imaging Market was valued at approximately USD 4.5-5.0 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 13.5-15.5 billion by 2036, expanding at a CAGR of 9-11% during the forecast period (2025-2036).
backsC54 - S26primarygovernment data2026-04-21Department of War, Under Secretary (Comptroller) - Overview, FY 2027 Department of War Budget Request U.S. Department of War (Comptroller)the counter-unmanned-systems request, the demand driver the Yole forecasts predate; PDF read through ir_fetch's client and pdftotext
The FY 2027 President's Budget includes $20.6 billion, an increase of $16.6 billion, or 424 percent over the FY 2026 enacted level of $3.9 billion, reinforces the Department's commitment to this challenge and the threats posed by UAS.
backsC55 - S27primarycompany filing2026-08-14that the former II-VI sold its aerospace and defence business on 2 September 2025 for about $400 million, so one named infrared-optics rival now competes as a private company and outside any public figurebacksC57
- S28primarytranscript2026-09-10Fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, prepared remarks (call held 10 September 2026) LightPath Technologiesmanagement's own unit cadence on counter-drone work, the platform count, the delayed interceptor and the unconverted border-tower funding; read through transcript_fetch (FMP)
our camera systems are now being designed into or actively evaluated in 7 different platforms, 3 of which are with Lockheed Martin. ... And counter UAS programs continue to move along well with 2 of the programs now transitioning to a cadence of deliveries of tens of systems a month.
backsC58 - S29primarycompany filing2025-10-28LightPath Technologies proxy statement (DEF 14A), filed 28 October 2025, for the 17 December 2025 annual meeting LightPath Technologiesbeneficial ownership as of 21 October 2025, the director and officer biographies, the fiscal 2024 and 2025 incentive plans and what they paid, the summary compensation table, and the Rosh Electroptics related-party agencybacksC63C64C66
- S30primarycompany filing2022-09-15LightPath Technologies Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2022 LightPath Technologiesthe fiscal 2021 and 2022 income statements: revenue, selling, general and administrative and new product development, the base years of the cost-per-sales-dollar seriesbacksC61
- S31primarycompany release2026-10-13The newest order from the counter-UAS and defence systems supplier behind the 22 July $13M order: $6.3M more, taking awards from that customer since 1 July above $19M, double its fiscal 2026 total.
Total awards from this customer now exceed $19 million since July 1
backsC22