FuturesThursday 8 October 2026
14 shown
  1. 01The proof economyAs fakes get cheap, proving who and what is real becomes a steadily growing businessDOCUMITKOKTAPANWSAILRELX
    How life looks

    Your mother gets a call in your voice asking for money, and the family has a code word. Your bank no longer trusts a voice on the phone for a large transfer; it asks for a passkey on a phone it knows, or for you in person.

    Employers check that an applicant is a real person before checking their skills. A contract arrives drafted by the other side's assistant, and what matters is who signed it, that their identity was checked, and that the text did not change afterwards.

    Inside companies, software agents log in and act on their own, and each one is issued an identity, given limits and switched off when its job is done.

    The chain
    1. FactGenerative AI has made convincing fake documents, photos, voices and videos cheap, and criminals already use them to get past bank identity checks. FinCEN
    2. FactReported deepfake fraud is rising fast, but AI-linked complaints to the FBI were $893 million in 2025, about 4% of reported losses, likely an undercount. FBIFederal Reserve
    3. Our readChecks that rest on how someone looks or sounds stop being enough on their own, so proof moves to layered checks, passkeys and signed records.
      What it rests on
      • A Federal Reserve governor warned that the voice checks banks often use may become vulnerable to generative AI. Federal Reserve
      • The US identity standard, NIST SP 800-63 revision 4 (July 2025), adds controls against injected and forged media such as deepfakes. NIST
      • The FIDO Alliance estimates 5 billion passkeys were in active use worldwide by May 2026. FIDO Alliance
      • Google's Pixel 10 phones attach signed Content Credentials to every photo taken with the Pixel Camera app. Google
      What cuts against it
      • The same Fed speech says banks should upgrade face and voice checks with AI detection, not abandon them. Federal Reserve
      • Passwords are still the most widely used way to sign in, the FIDO Alliance says. FIDO Alliance

      Where we looked: FinCEN's deepfake alert, the FBI's 2025 crime report, the Fed's deepfake speech, NIST's revised identity rules, the FIDO Alliance's 2026 passkey report and identity vendors' 10-K risk factors.

    4. FactAI agents add a new, fast-growing kind of identity inside companies, each needing to be issued, limited and revoked. SailPointOktaPalo Alto Networks
    5. Our readSpending shifts toward verifying people, machines and agreements, but so far it shows up as steady growth at identity vendors, not a boom.
      What it rests on
      • SailPoint's annual recurring revenue rose to $1,124.8 million in January 2026 from $876.7 million a year earlier. SailPoint
      • RELX's Risk division grew underlying revenue 8% in 2025, with digital fraud and identity products named among the drivers. RELX
      • Mitek's identity verification revenue rose to $76.7 million in its 2025 year from $68.5 million. Mitek Systems
      • Okta's revenue grew 12% to $2,919 million in the year to January 2026. Okta
      What cuts against it
      • Yubico's 2025 net sales fell 4.7%, and grew only 1.4% excluding currency. Yubico
      • DocuSign's revenue grew 8%, and it warns that AI makes basic agreement tools cheaper and easier to copy. DocuSign
      • Okta says AI agents may only over time create new opportunities, and its agent product is in early access. Okta
      • Google builds signed photo records into its own phones, so proof can come from the platform itself. Google

      Where we looked: The latest annual reports and results of Yubico, DocuSign, Okta, Mitek, SailPoint and RELX, and Google's and the FIDO Alliance's own announcements on built-in proof.

    Where the money goes
    • FactIdentity and fraud checks for banks and online businesses, often paid for by use. Mitek SystemsRELX
    • FactSigned agreements where the signer's identity is checked. DocuSign
    • FactSoftware that issues, limits and watches the identities of machines and AI agents. SailPointOktaPalo Alto Networks
    • FactSign-ins that phishing cannot steal: hardware security keys and passkeys. YubicoFIDO Alliance
    • FactInsurance that pays out when an AI system's errors cost a business money. Munich Re
    Who could win
    • DOCUDocuSign Valued as a mature e-signature business. It sells identity verification of signers as an add-on, so the binding act stays with a checked person even when an assistant drafts the contract. DocuSign
    • MITKMitek Systems A small identity and cheque-fraud verification vendor whose own filing names deepfakes, voice clones and synthetic identities as the threat its checks are built for; identity revenue rose to $76.7 million. Mitek Systems
    • OKTAOktaUnattractive The login and identity platform for workers and customers, now extending to AI agents with products still in early access. Okta
    • PANWPalo Alto NetworksUnattractive Completed its purchase of CyberArk in February 2026 to build an identity platform for human, agent and machine identities inside one security company. Palo Alto Networks
    • SAILSailPointNeutral Known as software that decides who may access what inside large firms. It now governs machine identities and AI agents too, and its recurring revenue grew 28% in the year to January 2026. SailPoint
    • RELXRELX Seen as a publisher. Its largest profit pool is LexisNexis Risk, where digital fraud and identity products drove 8% underlying growth in 2025. RELX
    Who loses
    • Banks and firms still relying on a voice call, a selfie or a scanned ID alone, which absorb the fraud.
    • Open-web advertising and review sites that depend on content looking genuine.
    • Remote hiring and outsourcing that cannot prove who is actually doing the work.
    What would prove it wrong

    Phones, browsers and cameras build proof in for free, as passkeys and signed photos already are, so the money stays with the platforms and identity vendors' growth does not speed up.

    What to watch

    Whether AI-linked losses in the FBI's yearly crime report grow faster than all losses, and whether banks publicly stop accepting voice checks for large transfers.

    Sources (14)
    • FinCEN Alert on Fraud Schemes Involving Deepfake Media Targeting Financial Institutions (FIN-2024-Alert004)FinCEN · Primary · agencyGenAI tools have greatly reduced the resources required to produce high-quality synthetic contentFinCEN’s analysis of BSA data indicates that criminals have used GenAI to create falsified documents, photographs, and videos to circumvent financial institutions’ customer identification and verificationBeginning in 2023 and continuing in 2024, FinCEN has observed an increase in suspicious activity reporting by financial institutions describing the suspected use of deepfake media in fraud schemes targeting their institutions and customers.
    • 2025 IC3 Annual ReportFBI · Primary · agencyIn 2025, IC3 received more than 22,000 complaints reporting AI-related information. Adjusted losses of these complaints exceed $893 million.2025 complaint highlights: 1,008,597 complaints; $20.877 billion in losses; 26% increase in losses from 2024;However, overall losses to Investment scams exceeded $8 billion, demonstrating that many victims do not realize the extent AI may be involved in scams.
    • Deepfakes and the AI Arms Race in Bank Cybersecurity (speech by Governor Michael S. Barr)Federal Reserve · Primary · agencyDeepfake attacks have seen a twentyfold increase over the last three years.Identity verification standards at banks often use voice detection, which may become vulnerable to Gen AI tools.To the extent deepfakes increase, bank identity verification processes should evolve in kind to include AI-powered advances such as facial recognition, voice analysis, and behavioral biometrics to detect potential deepfakes.
    • NIST SP 800-63 Digital Identity Guidelines (Revision 4)NIST · Primary · agencyAdds controls for addressing injection attacks and forged media (e.g., “deep fakes”)In July 2025, NIST released the final version of SP 800-63, Revision 4.
    • Five Billion Passkeys: A Milestone, Not a Finish LineFIDO Alliance · Primary · researchOn World Passkey Day 2026, we are announcing that an estimated 5 billion passkeys are now in active use worldwidePasswords are no longer the best available option, but they are still the most widely used.
    • How Pixel and Android are bringing a new level of trust to your images with C2PA Content CredentialsGoogle · Primary · companyThe Pixel 10 lineup is the first to have Content Credentials built in across every photo created by Pixel Camera.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 January 2026SailPoint · Primary · filingIdentities have expanded beyond human users to include a rapidly growing number of non-human identities like AI agents and machines.As of January 31, | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | ARR | $ | 1,124.8 | $ | 876.7 | $ | 681.8unifies identity data across systems and identity types, including employee identities, non-employee identities, machine identities, and AI agents for real-time governance.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 January 2026Okta · Primary · filingOkta for AI Agents, currently available in early access, provides governance and visibility for AI agents through the Okta Platform.Total revenue | $ | 2,919 | $ | 2,610 | $ | 309 | 12 | %the emergence of artificial intelligence (“AI”) and the deployment of AI agents may, over time, create new opportunities for identity management.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 July 2026Palo Alto Networks · Primary · filingIdira™, our next-generation identity security platform, is designed to secure human, agentic, and machine identities across the enterprise with intelligent privilege controls and continuous threat prevention.in February 2026, we completed the acquisition of CyberArk Software Ltd. (“CyberArk”), an identity security company, forming our next-generation identity security platform
    • 2025 Annual Report on Form 20-F (filed as a Form 6-K exhibit)RELX · Primary · filingUnderlying revenue growth of +8%. Strong growth continues to be driven across segments by our deeply embedded, AI-enabled analytics and decision tools.In Business Services, strong growth continues to be driven by Financial Crime Compliance and digital Fraud & Identity solutions, and strong new sales.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 30 September 2025Mitek Systems · Primary · filingIdentity verification revenue | 76,677 | 68,525 | 68,418 | Total revenue | $ | 179,691 | $ | 172,083 | $ | 172,552Our revenue is comprised of transactional and SaaS-based recurring revenue, generated from the use of our fraud prevention, verification and digital identity solutionsThe rapid advancement of AI has introduced a new class of fraud threats, including hyper-realistic deepfakes, voice clones, and synthetic identities that challenge traditional fraud and identity detection methods.
    • Year-end Report January - December 2025Yubico · Primary · companyNet sales decreased by -4.7 percent to SEK 2,218.0 (2,326.2) million, whereof 1.4 percent was underlying growth, and -6.1 percent was negative currency impactYubico (Nasdaq Stockholm: YUBICO), the inventor of the YubiKey, offers the gold standard for phishing-resistant multi-factor authentication (MFA), stopping account takeovers in their tracks
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 January 2026DocuSign · Primary · filingTotal revenue | $ | 3,219,500 | 100 | % | $ | 2,976,739 | 100 | % | 8 | %As AI advances make some foundational capabilities for agreements (such as analyzing, summarizing, comparing, and acting upon text) cheaper and easier to replicate, our eSignature and Intelligent Agreement Management platform may also increasingly compete with providers of LLMsIdentity verification and SBS for enhanced signer-identification and signatures with digital certification
    • aiSure: Insure AIMunich Re · Primary · companyAI errors and GenAI hallucinations can lead to ill-informed decisions, business interruption or other forms of lost revenue. aiSure™ has got you covered for critical AI risks
  2. 02Agents become the shopper's first stopAssistants increasingly choose what we buy; handing them the card is coming more slowlyNETVMASHOPAVY
    How life looks

    You still pay for most things yourself, but you rarely begin on a shop's website. You ask an assistant for dog food, printer ink or a flight; it reads prices, stock and return terms across shops and hands you two or three choices.

    For a few repeat buys, like detergent, you let it reorder within limits you set, on a card number made for that job. Brands you can feel, like food and clothes, keep their pull. For the rest, being picked by the assistant matters more than being famous.

    The chain
    1. Our readPeople increasingly start shopping by asking an AI assistant, though most still click through and pay for the purchase themselves.
      What it rests on
      • Adobe measured a 693% rise in visits from AI tools to US retail sites over the 2025 holidays, while calling the user base still modest. Adobe Digital Insights
      • Bain finds 30% to 45% of US consumers already use generative AI for product research and comparison. Bain
      • Amazon says active users of its agentic shopping assistant, which can auto-buy, nearly doubled year on year in its June 2026 quarter. Amazon
      What cuts against it
      • In Accenture's 16-country survey only 9% are open to fully autonomous agent purchases; 32% would let an agent choose if they pay themselves. Accenture
      • Forrester found only 24% of US online adults trust AI agents to make routine purchases for them. Forrester
      • Bain says most shoppers are not yet comfortable letting AI handle an end-to-end transaction. Bain

      Where we looked: Consumer surveys by Forrester, Accenture and Bain; Adobe's holiday data; Amazon's and Walmart's 2026 filings; reports that OpenAI scaled back in-chat checkout, which no primary source we could open confirms.

    2. FactAssistants choose from data shops feed them, such as price, stock, shipping and returns, and Shopify and Etsy already plug into several AI platforms. OpenAIShopifyEtsy
    3. FactCard networks and payment firms have built ways for an agent to pay safely, tokens with rules and checks that the agent is trusted, still mostly pilots. VisaMastercardCloudflare
    4. Our readBig platforms fight over who controls the assistant, while the card rails and checkout providers are built to carry the payment whichever assistant wins.
      What it rests on
      • Amazon runs its own shopping assistant with auto-buy. Amazon
      • Amazon went to court to stop Perplexity's shopping agent being used on Amazon.com; an appeals court vacated the injunction in August 2026. US Court of Appeals, Ninth Circuit
      • Mastercard's Agent Pay is built for agent payments across its whole acceptance network. Mastercard
      • Adyen launched a product letting large merchants take payments across AI agent protocols. Adyen
      What cuts against it
      • Visa expects more competition as AI is built into payments, including from firms offering their own payment services. Visa
      • Visa warns that as agent commerce scales, more payments may be made in error or disputed, with more chargebacks. Visa

      Where we looked: Visa's and Mastercard's risk factors, the Amazon v Perplexity appeal, Amazon's 2026 results, and Adyen's and Shopify's filings for signs that platforms bypass the card rails.

    5. Our readMarketing for everyday goods shifts part of its effort from persuading people to being picked by assistants.
      What it rests on
      • Accenture finds that once a consumer trusts an agent, that trust flows to the brands the agent chooses. Accenture
      • Etsy now lists agentic search integration among its digital marketing channels. Etsy
      What cuts against it
      • Adobe says paid search and email remain reliable drivers of online traffic and sales. Adobe Digital Insights
      • Accenture finds people who delegate a grocery restock may refuse to delegate purchases tied to identity or relationships. Accenture

      Where we looked: Adobe's channel data for the 2025 holidays, Accenture's 2026 consumer survey, and Etsy's 2026 filings on marketing spend.

    Where the money goes
    • FactPayment credentials made for agents: card network tokens with spending rules attached. VisaMastercard
    • FactTelling trusted shopping agents from bad bots at a shop's front door. CloudflareCloudflare
    • FactFeeds and checkout links that let assistants read a shop's catalogue and sell from it. OpenAIShopifyAdyen
    • Our readAccurate live stock data, since an assistant saying 'in stock' relies on what the shop reports.
      What it rests on
      • OpenAI's product feed asks shops to submit current stock status with every item. OpenAI
      • VusionGroup's shelf platform, rolled out in Walmart, is sold on accuracy in shelf management and in-store e-commerce order preparation. VusionGroup
      • Avery Dennison's RFID tags give each item a digital identity for retailers. Avery Dennison
      What cuts against it
      • Avery Dennison's Intelligent Labels grew only low single digits in its Solutions Group in late 2025. Avery Dennison

      Where we looked: OpenAI's feed rules, VusionGroup's and Avery Dennison's 2025 results. No source found showing assistants penalise wrong stock data, and neither company links its sales to agents.

    Who could win
    • NETCloudflareUnattractive Seen as a website-speed and security network. Visa, Mastercard and American Express use its Web Bot Auth standard so shops can tell a trusted buying agent from a bad bot. It does not report revenue from this. CloudflareCloudflare
    • VVisa Its Visa Intelligent Commerce uses tokens with authentication for agent-driven purchases, so far run as a live pilot. A purchase by an assistant still runs on the card network. Visa
    • MAMastercard Its Agent Pay, built on its card tokens, was switched on for all US Mastercard holders in 2025, with a global launch planned for early 2026. Mastercard
    • SHOPShopify Seen as a store-builder. Its Agentic Storefronts let merchants' products be found and bought across several AI platforms, so it supplies much of the catalogue assistants read. Shopify
    • AVYAvery Dennison Filed as a label and packaging maker. Its RFID tags give each item a digital identity so a store knows what it holds, though that line grew only low single digits in late 2025. Avery DennisonAvery Dennison
    Who loses
    • Comparison and coupon sites, if assistants do the comparing themselves.
    • Mid-range brands whose premium came from being well known rather than from a difference shoppers can feel.
    • Shops whose product, stock and returns data is thin or wrong, since an assistant cannot pick what it cannot read.
    What would prove it wrong

    Shoppers keep using assistants only to search and keep paying for themselves, or the big platforms keep assistants inside their own stores and wallets, so outside agents and their payment tools carry little volume.

    What to watch

    Card networks reporting agent transaction counts beyond pilots, merchants disclosing agent-placed orders, and the share of shoppers willing to let an agent pay rising from about one in ten.

    Sources (18)
    • Adobe: Holiday Shopping Season Drove a Record $257.8 Billion Online with Consumers Embracing Generative AI ToolsAdobe Digital Insights · Primary · researchThis season, traffic to retail sites from generative AI tools (shoppers clicking on a link to a retail site) increased by 693.4% compared to the year prior.While the base of users remains modest, the uptick shows the value AI can deliver as a shopping assistant.While major channels such as paid search and email continue to be reliable drivers of traffic and sales online, consumers are increasingly turning to social media to discover and learn about new products.
    • 2030 Forecast: How Agentic AI Will Reshape US RetailBain · Primary · researchAlready, 30% to 45% of US consumers are using generative AI for product research and comparison.But shoppers remain hesitant, with most saying they aren’t comfortable letting AI handle an end-to-end transaction yet.
    • Second quarter 2026 results release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)Amazon · Primary · filingBrought together Rufus and Alexa+ into Alexa for Shopping, an agentic AI shopping assistant that offers personalized recommendations, product comparisons, price history, and the ability to automate shopping through features like Price Alerts and Auto-Buy.Worldwide customer adoption and engagement accelerated in Q2, with active users close to doubling and interactions up over 5x year-over-year.
    • Talk to My AI Agent: The New Rules of Brand Value (Consumer Pulse Research 2026)Accenture · Primary · research32% would let an agent decide what to buy, provided that they make the payment themselves. 9% are open to an AI agent making fully autonomous purchases.And once a consumer trusts an agent, that trust flows to the brands the agent choosesThe same person who delegates a grocery restock might refuse to hand over travel bookings. What shapes the boundary is not complexity but meaning: identity, relationships, self-expression.
    • Many US Consumers Believe In Agentic Commerce, But Few Trust It To Make PurchasesForrester · Primary · researchIn Forrester's March 2025 Consumer Pulse Survey, only 24% of US online adults trust AI agents
    • Products - Agentic Commerce (product feed reference)OpenAI · Primary · companyStart with the required product fields and a minimal example. Optional fields describe variants, product attributes, shipping, and returns.Submit current stock status with each row. Use pre_order for an item offered before release and backorder for an item temporarily awaiting stock.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025Shopify · Primary · filingAgentic Storefronts, which enables agent-assisted product discovery and checkout across a number of AI platforms.
    • Fourth quarter and full year 2025 results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)Etsy · Primary · filingIn addition to our previously announced integration with OpenAI’s ChatGPT Instant Checkout , in January of 2026, we announced agentic shopping partnerships with Google and Microsoft
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 30 September 2025Visa · Primary · filingVisa Intelligent Commerce is an innovative offering in this space that integrates Visa’s tokenization technology with authentication and predictive analyticsIn 2025, we deployed a pilot program that processed live agentic token transactions within the ecommerce and enterprise environments.We expect to face more competition as AI continues to advance and GenAI and agentic AI capabilities become integrated into payments and related servicesas agentic commerce solutions scale, we may see increased instances of erroneous or disputed payments, increased chargebacks and reputational harm.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025Mastercard · Primary · filingIn 2025, we enabled all U.S.-based Mastercard cardholders to participate in this program, with a global launch scheduled for early 2026.The solution enables AI-assisted and fully automated agent-based payments across Mastercard's acceptance network. The solution builds upon our existing tokenization capabilities (including Agentic Tokens) and dispute management capabilities.
    • Cloudflare Collaborates with Leading Payments Companies to Secure and Enable Agentic CommerceCloudflare · Primary · companyMastercard is incorporating Web Bot Auth into Mastercard Agent Pay , enabling merchants to identify trusted agents and deliver secure and personalized agentic commerce experiences easily. American Express will also leverage Web Bot AuthCloudflare and Visa have worked together to develop and introduce the Trusted Agent Protocol , a new protocol that enables payment networks to integrate Web Bot Auth
    • Amazon.com Services, LLC v. Perplexity AI, Inc., No. 26-1444, opinionUS Court of Appeals, Ninth Circuit · Primary · agencyvacated the district court’s preliminary injunction requested by Amazon.com Services, LLC, against Perplexity AI, Inc., an artificial intelligence company, to prevent the use of Perplexity’s agentic web browser AI tool on Amazon.com
    • Adyen publishes H1 2026 financial resultsAdyen · Primary · companyLaunched Adyen Agentic, enabling enterprise merchants to securely process payments across AI agent protocols.
    • Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026Etsy · Primary · filingOur digital marketing efforts currently include, among others, agentic search integration, search engine optimization, search engine marketing, affiliate marketing, and display advertising
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025Cloudflare · Primary · filingto easily identify, block and control access from AI crawlers and AI agents and operators, a growing concern for content creators and website operators.
    • Vusion 2025 Annual Results: Strong growth in revenue and profitabilityVusionGroup · Primary · companyWalmart's deployment now confirms on a large scale the performance of the EdgeSense platform, which has no equivalent in the world today for optimizing productivity, speed, and accuracy in shelf management tasks and in-store e-commerce order preparation.
    • Form 10-K for fiscal year 2025Avery Dennison · Primary · filingOur ultra-high-frequency RFID solutions empower customers across multiple retail and industry segments, including apparel, logistics, food and grocery, and general retail, to connect the physical and digital worlds by enabling a digital identity and life for physical items.
    • Fourth quarter 2025 results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)Avery Dennison · Primary · filingSales in high-value categories were up high single digits. ● Intelligent labels up low single digits
  3. 03Office hiring thins, the trades stay shortAI squeezes young office hiring while hands-on licensed trades stay short of peopleUTILINCTTANSNAWSOAPEI
    How life looks

    You see a nurse practitioner rather than a doctor more often, because they are the fastest-growing job in the country and software now drafts the visit notes they check.

    The electrician who fits your heat pump is 24 and a year out of technical school. His firm's software books, dispatches and bills the job, and his tools and diagnostics do some of what an older hand once knew.

    Office jobs that used to train 22-year-olds are scarcer, so more young people take short vocational and nursing courses, though four-year colleges still grow too.

    The chain
    1. Our readAI tools lift novices most in the desk work studied so far, letting less-trained people do more of an expert's job.
      What it rests on
      • In a customer-support study, an AI assistant raised output 14% on average and 34% for novice and low-skilled workers, with little effect on experts. NBER
      • The same study suggests the AI spreads the best workers' practices and helps newer workers move down the learning curve. NBER
      What cuts against it
      • In a field experiment with Kenyan business owners, AI advice left low performers about 10% worse off while high performers gained over 15%. Management Science

      Where we looked: NBER and peer-reviewed field experiments on generative AI by worker skill; found no comparable study of AI lifting novices in physical field work such as repair or installation.

    2. Our readHiring of young workers into AI-exposed office jobs has weakened, though no economy-wide job loss from AI has shown up yet.
      What it rests on
      • Employment of 22- to 25-year-olds in AI-exposed jobs stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with less-exposed peers. Stanford Digital Economy Lab
      • That gap comes mainly from fewer young people being hired, not from more being let go. Stanford Digital Economy Lab
      • Recent college graduates' unemployment rate stayed about 5.6% and underemployment rose to 42% in the second quarter of 2026. New York Fed
      • US projections expect AI-powered automation to cut demand for office and administrative support jobs, the fastest-shrinking group to 2035. BLS
      What cuts against it
      • Yale's Budget Lab found no discernible disruption of the broader labor market in the 33 months after ChatGPT's release. Yale Budget Lab
      • The Stanford authors find no economy-wide displacement, and say the gap shrinks when controlling for education and partly predates generative AI. Stanford Digital Economy Lab

      Where we looked: Stanford's revised payroll study, Yale Budget Lab's labor-market tracker, the New York Fed's graduate data and the BLS 2025-35 projections.

    3. FactHands-on licensed work keeps growing faster than average, but mostly to replace retirees and serve an ageing population, not because AI lifted novices. BLSBLSBLS
    4. Our readMore young people choose short vocational and nursing courses, a shift that began before ChatGPT and has not emptied four-year colleges.
      What it rests onWhat cuts against it

      Where we looked: National Student Clearinghouse fall and spring reports, and the trade schools' own latest results releases and 10-Ks.

    5. Our readTrade contractors short of workers buy tools, diagnostics and software that let each technician finish more jobs.
      What it rests on
      • Techtronic says structural labour shortages in electrical, plumbing and utility trades drive demand for tools that raise productivity on the job site. Techtronic Industries
      • ServiceTitan says labour shortages can stop trades businesses taking on new jobs. ServiceTitan
      • ServiceTitan introduced Atlas, an agentic AI layer for trade contractors, in fiscal 2026. ServiceTitan
      • Snap-on's segment selling diagnostics and repair information grew sales 4.4% in 2025. Snap-on
      What cuts against it
      • Snap-on's van channel selling tools to technicians saw sales fall 1.2% in 2025. Snap-on
      • ServiceTitan prices partly per technician, so a shrinking skilled workforce hurts its revenue. ServiceTitan
      • Much of Milwaukee's growth comes from data centres and large infrastructure projects rather than from more productive technicians. Techtronic Industries

      Where we looked: Risk factors and segment results in the Techtronic, ServiceTitan and Snap-on annual reports.

    Where the money goes
    Who could win
    • UTIUniversal Technical InstituteNeutral Trains automotive, diesel, skilled-trades and healthcare technicians, mostly hands-on in labs and clinics. New student starts rose 10.9% in the quarter to June 2026. Universal Technical InstituteUniversal Technical Institute
    • LINCLincoln Educational Services A smaller trade-school group where skilled trades are 52% of enrolment. 2025 revenue grew 17.8%, though start growth slowed to 1% in the June 2026 quarter. Lincoln Educational ServicesLincoln Educational Services
    • TTANServiceTitan Software that runs trade contractors' businesses, from booking and dispatch to payment, now with AI tools. Payment revenue grows with dollars invoiced, but part of its price is per technician, so a shortage cuts both ways. ServiceTitan
    • SNASnap-on About 4,700 franchise vans sell tools to repair technicians at their workplace. Its diagnostics and repair-information segment grew 4.4% in 2025, while van tool sales fell 1.2%. Snap-on
    • WSOWatsco Distributes heating and air-conditioning equipment to more than 130,000 contractors, who must be licensed, and builds digital sales tools for them. It collects on the jobs those contractors complete. Watsco
    • APEIAmerican Public Education Known for online degrees for the military, which grew under 1% in 2025. Its Rasmussen and Hondros colleges train over 10,200 nursing students, mostly for a first licence, and grew revenue 14% and 11%. American Public Education
    Who loses
    • Firms whose model rests on hiring many graduates into routine desk work billed by the hour.
    • Office and administrative support work, which official projections expect to shrink fastest.
    What would prove it wrong

    Young workers in AI-exposed office jobs regain ground on their less-exposed peers, vocational and certificate enrolment growth stalls, or contractors' worker shortages ease without more tools or software.

    What to watch

    Stanford's young-worker gap in AI-exposed jobs, the New York Fed's recent-graduate jobless rate, certificate against bachelor's enrolment growth, and trade-school starts.

    Sources (20)
    • Generative AI at Work (Working Paper 31161)NBER · Primary · researchAccess to the tool increases productivity, as measured by issues resolved per hour, by 14% on average, including a 34% improvement for novice and low-skilled workers but with minimal impact on experienced and highly skilled workers.We provide suggestive evidence that the AI model disseminates the best practices of more able workers and helps newer workers move down the experience curve.
    • The Uneven Impact of Generative AI on Entrepreneurial Performance: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Kenya (copy hosted by UC eScholarship)Management Science · Primary · researchSubsample analyses show that low performers did nearly 10% worse due to the AI assistant, whereas high performers may have benefited by over 15%.
    • Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence (revised August 2026)Stanford Digital Economy Lab · Primary · researchemployment of young workers (ages 22-25) in AI-exposed occupations now stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with that of their less-exposed peersIt operates primarily through reduced hiring of young workers rather than increased separations.We find no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement.These patterns attenuate when controlling for education, show some divergent trends predating generative AI, and are more pronounced in the ADP analysis sample than in national survey benchmarks
    • The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates (2026:Q2 highlights)New York Fed · Primary · agencyLabor market conditions remained challenging for recent college graduates through the second quarter of 2026. The unemployment rate stayed elevated at about 5.6 percent, and the underemployment rate edged up to 42 percent.
    • Employment Projections: 2025-2035 SummaryBLS · Primary · agencythe continued integration of automation tools, including those powered by AI, into workflows is likely to reduce demand for several office and administrative support occupations.These two healthcare groups combined are expected to account for almost one-third of all new jobs created through 2035.Notably, nurse practitioners is projected to experience the fastest employment growth of all detailed occupations (+41.0 percent), reflecting the central role this occupation plays in providing care under collaborative, team-based models of care.
    • Evaluating the Impact of AI on the Labor Market: Current State of AffairsYale Budget Lab · Primary · researchOverall, our metrics indicate that the broader labor market has not experienced a discernible disruption since ChatGPT’s release 33 months ago, undercutting fears that AI automation is currently eroding the demand for cognitive labor across the economy.
    • Occupational Outlook Handbook: ElectriciansBLS · Primary · agencyEmployment of electricians is projected to grow 9 percent from 2025 to 2035, much faster than the average for all occupations.Many of those openings are expected to result from the need to replace workers who transfer to different occupations or exit the labor force, such as to retire.
    • Occupational Outlook Handbook: Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and InstallersBLS · Primary · agencyEmployment of heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers is projected to grow 11 percent from 2025 to 2035, much faster than the average for all occupations.
    • Final Spring Enrollment Trends 2026National Student Clearinghouse · Primary · researchAt the undergraduate level, enrollment increased across certificate, associate, and bachelor’s programs, with undergraduate certificate programs continuing to post the fastest growth (+10.2%).
    • Current Term Enrollment Estimates: Spring 2025National Student Clearinghouse · Primary · researchFor the third consecutive year, high vocational public two-years had substantial growth in enrollment (+11.7%, +91,000).
    • Final Fall Enrollment Trends (fall 2025)National Student Clearinghouse · Primary · researchEnrollment in Computer and Information Science programs declined across all award and institution types, ranging from -3.6 percent at undergraduate PAB institutions to -14.0 percent at the graduate level.After four years of consecutive growth, there are now 752,000 enrollments in undergraduate certificate programs at community colleges, a total increase of 28.3 percent from fall 2021.There were 965,000 freshmen at community colleges, an increase of only 4,000 students (+0.5%) after three consecutive years of strong growth.
    • Fiscal 2026 third-quarter results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)Universal Technical Institute · Primary · filingAverage full-time active students of 25,131, an increase of 5.8% versus the comparable period, with total new student starts of 6,342, an increase of 10.9% over the comparable period.
    • Second-quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)Lincoln Educational Services · Primary · filingHowever, our start growth for the quarter slowed to one percent, as fewer enrolled students than expected attended the first day of class.
    • Annual Report 2025: Management's Discussion and AnalysisTechtronic Industries · Primary · filingStructural labor shortages in many of our key trades including electrical, plumbing, and power utility, facilitate growing end user demand for technology-driven solutions that enhance productivity and safety on the job site.a significant portion of MILWAUKEE sales are derived from hyper-growth segments including data centers and large-scale infrastructure projects that have long-term investment cycles.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 January 2026ServiceTitan · Primary · filingMoreover, trades businesses have experienced labor shortages as a result of an aging labor force and difficulty attracting new workers into the trades. These labor shortages can prevent trades businesses from accepting new jobsin fiscal 2026, we introduced Atlas, an agentic AI layer that represents the next evolution of our Titan Intelligence AI engine.The pricing of our subscription platform is partially based on the number of technicians employed by each of our customers, and any reduction in the skilled labor force hampers the growth of our customersThrough our platform, our customers are able to generate leads, book jobs, dispatch technicians, track performance, and take paymentsThis is especially true for our usage-based revenue, which is directly tied to the amount of GTV processed through our platform.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3 January 2026Snap-on · Primary · filingSegment net sales of $1,877.1 million in 2025 represented an increase of $79.2 million, or 4.4%, from 2024 levelsSegment net sales of $1,964.9 million in 2025 represented a decrease of $24.3 million, or 1.2%, from 2024 levels.The diagnostics, information and management systems product category includes handheld and computer-based diagnostic products, service and repair information products, diagnostic software solutions, electronic parts catalogspioneered mobile tool distribution in the automotive repair market, where well-stocked vans sell to professional vehicle technicians at their place of business.As of 2025 year end, Snap-on’s total route count was approximately 4,700, including approximately 3,400 routes in the United States.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025Lincoln Educational Services · Primary · filingOur average enrollment for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 was 16,622 students and our annual revenue was $518.2 million, which represented an increase of 17.8% over the prior fiscal year.For the year ended December 31, 2025, skilled trades were our largest area of study, representing 52% of our total average student enrollment.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025American Public Education · Primary · filingRU and HCN have more than 10,200 nursing students at their 26 campuses across eight states and online with over 90% of those students pursuing a pre-licensure PN diploma, ADN, or post-licensure BSN degree.a $30.0 million, or 13.9%, increase in revenue in our RU Segment, a $7.7 million, or 11.4%, increase in revenue in our HCN Segment, and a $2.8 million, or 0.9%, increase in revenue in our APUS Segment
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025Watsco · Primary · filingAir conditioning and heating contractors that install HVAC/R products in homes and businesses must be licensed given the highly regulated nature of the products, refrigerant, natural gas, and building and zoning requirements.We currently serve more than 130,000 active contractors who service the replacement and new construction markets for residential and commercial central air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration systems.a variety of early-stage technologies intended to help contractor customers grow and become more profitable. These initiatives include, among others, OnCall Air® , our digital sales platform
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 30 September 2025Universal Technical Institute · Primary · filingWe offer the majority of our programs in a hands-on learning model through labs and clinical placements, as well as classroom delivery and blended delivery models.The market for qualified transportation or skilled trades technicians across the programs that UTI offers is large and growing.
  4. 04Cheap diagnosis, crowded clinicsAs AI makes a first look cheaper, the queue moves to scanners, labs and operating roomsRDNTDGXWAYGEHCISRGTHCEVH
    How life looks

    Your watch, a home blood test and software reading your scans flag problems earlier than before. More of what is there gets found, and more of it at an early stage.

    The wait is less to see a doctor than for the scan, the biopsy or the procedure. Imaging centres and surgery centres run full, and staffing them is the hard part.

    Hospitals and insurers fight over bills with software on both sides: one documents every visit as fully as it can defend, the other reviews, downcodes and denies.

    The chain
    1. Our readAI tools that read scans and flag disease are multiplying fast, making a first look cheaper; chatbots handed to doctors have not yet improved their diagnoses.
      What it rests on
      • The FDA's list of authorised AI medical devices holds about 1,600 entries, three quarters of them in radiology, with 335 added in 2025 against 235 in 2024. FDA
      • In a Swedish trial of 106,000 women, AI-supported mammography cut radiologists' screen readings by 44%. Lund University (Lancet Digital Health)
      • In a 2023 trial, a large language model working alone scored 16 points higher on diagnostic reasoning than doctors using conventional resources. Stanford-led trial (JAMA Network Open)
      • RadNet sells its own clinical AI and radiology software alongside its imaging centres. RadNet
      What cuts against it

      Where we looked: FDA's AI device list, randomised trials of AI in mammography and of language models in diagnosis, and a provider survey on AI adoption.

    2. Our readMore disease is found, and earlier: AI finds more early cancers in the same screens, while watches and wider screening rules reach people never checked.
      What it rests on
      • In the Swedish MASAI trial, AI-supported screening found 6.4 cancers per 1,000 women against 5.0 with standard double reading. Lund University (Lancet Digital Health)
      • Apple expects its watch's hypertension alert to notify over a million people with undiagnosed high blood pressure in its first year. Apple
      • In 2024 the US Preventive Services Task Force lowered the age to start routine mammograms from 50 to 40. USPSTF
      What cuts against it
      • In the same trial, recalls and false positives were not significantly higher with AI, so more cancers were found without many more women being called back. Lund University (Lancet Digital Health)
      • The Task Force lists overdiagnosis and overtreatment among screening's harms, so more found is not all care that helps. USPSTF

      Where we looked: The MASAI trial's recall and false-positive results, the Task Force's statement of screening harms, and Apple's own claims for its alert.

    3. FactPhysical follow-up is already growing: imaging and robotic surgery volumes rise briskly, while lab test volumes grow only slowly. None of it is yet traced to AI. RadNetIntuitive SurgicalQuest DiagnosticsLabcorp
    4. Our readConfirming and treating needs licensed staff, machines and rooms, which are scarce, so whoever owns that capacity gets the extra volume.
      What it rests on
      • The AAMC projects a US shortage of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036. AAMC
      • RadNet says radiologists are at times short in some of its markets. RadNet
      • RadNet added clinical and technical staff in 2025 to handle higher procedure volumes. RadNet
      • Tenet's surgery-centre arm earned $2.0 billion of its $4.6 billion adjusted EBITDA in 2025. Tenet Healthcare
      What cuts against it

      Where we looked: AAMC workforce projections, RadNet's 10-K on radiologist supply and staffing, and trial evidence on AI reducing reading work.

    5. Our readBilling is already a software fight: insurers say AI coding tools raise hospital bills, hospitals say insurers' automated edits deny care, and Medicare now pilots AI review.
      What it rests on
      • Elevance told investors that some hospitals use AI coding tools that raise documented acuity and unit costs. Elevance Health
      • The American Hospital Association says some insurers use automated tools to partly deny claims, forcing costly appeals. American Hospital Association
      • Medicare's WISeR model, running 2026 to 2031 in six states, uses AI with human review to check payment for selected services. CMS
      • 41% of providers in Experian's 2025 survey face claim denial rates of 10% or more, a share that has grown every year since 2022. Experian Health
      • MedPAC projects Medicare Advantage risk scores about 16% above similar traditional Medicare patients in 2025 because plans record more diagnoses. MedPAC
      What cuts against it
      • Health plans pledged in June 2025 to cut the scope of prior authorisation, with demonstrated reductions by January 2026. AHIP
      • The hospital association calls the claim that AI tools raised coding intensity unsubstantiated. American Hospital Association

      Where we looked: Elevance's 2025 call, the AHA's fact sheet, AHIP's prior-authorisation pledge, CMS's WISeR page, MedPAC on coding, and Experian's claims survey.

    Where the money goes
    Who could win
    • RDNTRadNetUnattractive Runs 418 outpatient imaging centres, where advanced scans are its fastest-growing work, and sells its own AI reading tools. RadNet
    • DGXQuest Diagnostics Processed about 244 million lab requisitions in 2025, the first physical check for many flagged patients, though organic volume grew only 3.4%. Quest Diagnostics
    • WAYWaystar Billing and claims software for providers, handling $2.4 trillion of gross claims a year and selling tools to fight denials. Waystar
    • GEHCGE HealthCare Makes CT, MRI and PET scanners plus AI software meant to ease staff shortages; imaging revenue grew 4.4% in 2025. GE HealthCare
    • ISRGIntuitive SurgicalNeutral Da Vinci procedures grew about 18% in 2025, each using instruments that must be replaced, though that growth comes from surgeons adopting robots rather than more diagnoses. Intuitive Surgical
    • THCTenet Healthcare Read as a hospital chain. Through USPI it holds stakes in 533 surgery centres and 26 surgical hospitals, and that arm earned 44% of Tenet's adjusted EBITDA in 2025. Tenet Healthcare
    • EVHEvolent Health Little known; it works for health plans, reviewing requests for advanced imaging and cancer and heart care, and in 2026 signed an imaging contract covering about 4.5 million people. Evolent HealthEvolent Health
    Who loses
    • Health insurers' margins, if more found disease turns into more paid care before premiums catch up.
    • Diagnosis-only software, which this chain says captures less than the scarce capacity behind it.TEM
    What would prove it wrong

    Insurers ration follow-up through prior approval, AI reads scans fast enough to end the staffing squeeze, or extra findings never lift imaging and procedure volumes beyond their current pace.

    What to watch

    Organic imaging and lab volume growth against 2025's pace, AI-device clearances in radiology, and how insurers describe care use, coding and denials on their calls.

    Sources (21)
    • Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Medical Devices (the AI-Enabled Medical Device List)FDA · Primary · agencyThe AI-Enabled Medical Device List is a resource intended to identify AI-enabled medical devices that are authorized for marketing in the United States.
    • Screening performance and characteristics of breast cancer detected in the MASAI trial (Lancet Digital Health; abstract as served by Europe PMC)Lund University (Lancet Digital Health) · Primary · researchThere were 61 248 screen readings in the intervention group and 109 692 in the control group, resulting in a 44·2% reduction in the screen-reading workload.Cancer-detection rates were 6·4 per 1000 (95% CI 5·7-7·1) screened participants in the intervention group and 5·0 per 1000 (4·4-5·6) in the control groupThe recall and false-positive rate were not significantly higher in the intervention group
    • Large Language Model Influence on Diagnostic Reasoning: A Randomized Clinical Trial (JAMA Network Open; abstract as served by Europe PMC)Stanford-led trial (JAMA Network Open) · Primary · researchThe LLM alone scored 16 percentage points (95% CI, 2-30 percentage points; P = .03) higher than the conventional resources group.In this trial, the availability of an LLM to physicians as a diagnostic aid did not significantly improve clinical reasoning compared with conventional resources.
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025RadNet · Primary · filingThe portfolio of AI and software solutions is anchored by Enterprise Operations solutions (traditionally knowns as RIS), Enterprise Imaging solutions (traditionally known as PACS), and Clinical AI solutionsOur 10.9% increase in Imaging Center revenue compared to the same period last year was driven by higher fees per imaging procedure and increased procedure volumes.At times, there has been a shortage of qualified radiologists in some of the regional markets we serve.In response to higher procedure volumes, we increased staffing levels across clinical, administrative, and technical functions to support the influx of patients.While X-ray remains the most commonly performed diagnostic imaging procedure, the fastest growing and higher margin procedures are MRI, CT and PET.As of December 31, 2025, we operated, directly or indirectly through hospital and health system joint ventures, 418 imaging centers located in Arizona, California, Delaware, Florida, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, Texas and New York.
    • Experian Health’s 3rd Annual State of Claims Survey Finds Denials Still on the Rise Amid Escalating ChallengesExperian Health · Primary · researchonly 14 percent are using it.41 percent of providers now face denial rates of 10 percent or higher, an issue that has grown each year since the first survey in 2022.
    • Apple debuts Apple Watch Series 11 featuring groundbreaking health insightsApple · Primary · companythe feature is expected to notify over 1 million people with undiagnosed hypertension within the first year.
    • Final Recommendation Statement: Breast Cancer: ScreeningUSPSTF · Primary · agencyThe USPSTF recommends biennial screening mammography for women aged 40 to 74 years.overdiagnosis and overtreatment of lesions that would not have led to health problems in the absence of detection by screening
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Intuitive Surgical · Primary · filingTotal da Vinci procedures performed by our customers grew approximately 18% in 2025, compared to approximately 17% in 2024Our instruments and accessories have limited lives and will either expire or wear out as they are used in procedures, at which point they need to be replaced.
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Quest Diagnostics · Primary · filingDIS volume increased by 12.3% compared to the prior year primarily driven by the impact of recent acquisitions, which contributed approximately 8.9% to DIS volume, with organic volume up by 3.4%.During 2025, we processed approximately 244 million test requisitions through our extensive laboratory network.
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Labcorp · Primary · filingDx total volume, measured by requisitions, increased by 3.7%, as organic volume increased by 2.2% and acquisition volume, net of divestitures, contributed 1.5%.
    • New AAMC Report Shows Continuing Projected Physician ShortageAAMC · Primary · researchthe United States will face a physician shortage of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036.the shortage projected in the new report is smaller than the findings demonstrated in the last report published by the AAMC in 2021.
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Tenet Healthcare · Primary · filingAdjusted EBITDA | $ | 2,540 | $ | 2,026 | 4,566 |Hospital Operations | Ambulatory Care | Total | Net operating revenues | $ | 16,138 | $ | 5,172 | $ | 21,310 |At December 31, 2025, USPI held ownership interests in 533 ASCs and 26 surgical hospitals in 37 states.
    • Second quarter 2025 earnings call (transcript served by FMP)Elevance Health · Primary · companyisolated pockets where hospitals are using some AI-enabled coding tools that can increase document acuity and in turn unit costs.
    • Fact Sheet: Artificial Intelligence and Coding IntensityAmerican Hospital Association · Primary · researchsome insurers are using automated tools to partially deny claims, forcing providers to engage in burdensome and costly appeals to be reimbursed.Recently, unsubstantiated claims have suggested that the use of these tools has increased coding intensity, leading to higher health care costs.
    • WISeR (Wasteful and Inappropriate Service Reduction) ModelCMS · Primary · agencyleveraging enhanced technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML), along with human clinical review, to ensure timely and appropriate Medicare payment for select items and services.
    • Report to the Congress: Medicare Payment Policy, March 2025, Chapter 11: The Medicare Advantage program: Status reportMedPAC · Primary · agencyWe project that in 2025, MA risk scores will be about 16 percent higher than scores for similar FFS beneficiaries
    • Health Plans Take Action to Simplify Prior AuthorizationAHIP · Primary · researchIndividual plans will commit to specific reductions to medical prior authorization as appropriate for the local market each plan serves, with demonstrated reductions by January 1, 2026.
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Waystar · Primary · filingour denial recovery solution, which offers a root-cause reporting tool for denied claims to help reduce preventable denials in the future.processing 7.5 billion healthcare payments transactions annually representing over $2.4 trillion in gross claims.
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Evolent Health · Primary · filingThe Auth Intelligence tool incorporates AI to aid nurses and physicians in completing clinical review of prior authorization requests.Oncology, cardiology, musculoskeletal conditions, and advanced imaging, four of our key specialties, typically account for large portions of our customers’ specialty medical expense.
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025GE HealthCare · Primary · filingImaging segment revenues were $9,245 million, growing 4.4% or $390 million, with growth in the USCAN and EMEA regions, partially offset by continued pressure in the China marketWe also offer a suite of AI-enabled software and applications that help clinicians improve productivity, address staff shortages, and deliver better patient outcomes.
    • First quarter 2026 results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)Evolent Health · Primary · filingAn existing Performance Suite client has signed a contract for our advanced imaging solution, which is expected to go live in the third quarter, subject to state regulatory approvals in certain states, with approximately 4.5 million lives
  5. 05The house fights backData centres raise power costs where they cluster, and grids start paying homes for flexibilityGNRCITRINRGBEALRMRUN
    How life looks

    The bill people complain about is electricity, most of all in the mid-Atlantic, where the grid that serves Virginia's data-centre corridor has paid capped prices for capacity three years running and passes the cost to every customer.

    Most households do nothing dramatic. Those that act lease a battery with their solar, sign up a smart thermostat for a utility credit, or buy a standby generator after the last big storm.

    The utility, short of power plants at peak, pays for that flexibility, and asks the biggest new users to switch down or bring their own power.

    The chain
    1. FactOn PJM, the largest US grid, data-centre load is outgrowing new supply: its last two capacity auctions cleared at the price cap and short of target. PJMPJM
    2. Our readHousehold rates rise fastest where that shortage bites, as capacity costs are spread over every customer, though wires, storms and gas prices move bills too.
      What it rests on
      • EIA forecasts the US average household rate rising from 17.30 cents a kilowatt-hour in 2025 to 18.21 in 2026, and Middle Atlantic rates from 22.70 to 24.90. EIA
      • EIA says household rates include transmission and distribution upgrades and, in some regions, capacity auction prices. EIA
      • Berkeley Lab and Brattle cite PJM as the case where fast load growth plus supply and delivery constraints led to significant price increases. Berkeley Lab and Brattle
      • PJM's chief executive said demand for electricity continues to grow faster than supply. PJM
      What cuts against it
      • From 2019 to 2025, states with more load growth generally saw average retail prices fall, not rise, after inflation. Berkeley Lab and Brattle
      • Nationally, retail prices rose 5.3% in 2025 but only 2.6% after inflation. Berkeley Lab and Brattle
      • EIA puts this year's higher wholesale prices down mainly to weather: winter storm Fern and a hot July. EIA
      • PJM notes capacity is only a fraction of wholesale costs, which are only part of a retail bill. PJM

      Where we looked: EIA's October 2026 outlook and price tables, the Berkeley Lab and Brattle 2026 retail price study, and PJM's own auction release.

    3. Our readSome households spend on their own side of the meter, but storms and tax credits drive that spending more than bills do.
      What it rests on
      • Generac says major outages raise awareness and pull forward purchases of standby and portable generators. Generac
      • Generac's home standby generator sales grew in the second quarter of 2026. Generac
      • 74% of Sunrun's new customers took a battery in the second quarter of 2026, up from 70% a year earlier. Sunrun
      • Hurricanes Beryl, Helene and Milton caused 80% of US customers' hours without power in 2024. EIA
      What cuts against it
      • The federal tax credit for home solar and batteries bought with cash or a loan expired at the end of 2025. Enphase Energy
      • Enphase's home battery shipments fell 40% in the first half of 2026. Enphase Energy
      • Sunrun added 31% fewer customers in the second quarter of 2026 than a year earlier. Sunrun
      • Generac's 2025 home standby sales fell because there were far fewer outages than in the hurricane year before. Generac
      • Outages not caused by major storms routinely average about two hours a year. EIA

      Where we looked: Generac, Enphase and Sunrun filings and 2026 quarterly results, EIA's outage data, and the 2025 tax law changes the filings describe.

    4. Our readUtilities pay home devices to switch down at peak, a market growing through software platforms and state-ordered programmes.
      What it rests on
      • Generac's ecobee is paid by utilities for direct control of enrolled homeowners' smart thermostats. Generac
      • Alarm.com's EnergyHub manages over 2.5 million home devices for more than 120 utilities. EnergyHub (Alarm.com)
      • Virginia ordered Dominion Energy to run a virtual power plant pilot of up to 450 MW of home and business devices. FERC
      • DOE estimated in 2023 that 80 to 160 GW of virtual power plants by 2030 would triple their scale and redirect spending from peaking plants to participants. US Department of Energy
      What cuts against it
      • Demand response enrolled in the seven US wholesale markets grew only 0.7% in 2024, to 33,272 MW. FERC

      Where we looked: FERC's 2025 demand response assessment, DOE's virtual power plant report, and the Alarm.com, Generac and Sunrun filings for how much of this is paid today.

    5. FactGrid operators and states push the biggest new users to switch down in emergencies or bring their own power. FERCPJMBerkeley Lab and BrattleBloom Energy
    Where the money goes
    • FactHome standby generators, bought most after big outages. GeneracGenerac
    • FactMeters and software that let utilities enrol, control and pay home devices. FERCAlarm.comGeneracItron
    • FactLeased home batteries that also earn payments from grid-service programmes. SunrunSunrun
    • FactGenerators and fuel cells installed on site at data centres. GeneracBloom Energy
    Who could win
    • GNRCGeneracNeutral Most of its sales are to homes, led by standby generators; it also owns ecobee, which utilities pay to control thermostats, and its large generators are a growing data-centre business. GeneracGenerac
    • ITRIItron Makes smart meters, the networks behind them and software that helps utilities fit rooftop solar and other home devices into the grid. Itron
    • NRGNRG EnergyNeutral Texas's largest seller of power to homes in the open market, and it sells them demand-response and virtual power plant programmes alongside power. NRG Energy
    • BEBloom EnergyUnattractive On-site fuel-cell power for data centres and other large users that want to bypass grid delays. Bloom Energy
    • ALRMAlarm.com Seen as home-security software. Its EnergyHub unit runs virtual power plants for more than 120 utilities, switching thermostats, home batteries and cars down at peak, with over 2.5 million devices. Alarm.comEnergyHub (Alarm.com)
    • RUNSunrun Usually filed under solar. 74% of new customers took a battery in mid-2026, and it earns contracted payments from utility and grid-operator programmes for the fleet. New customers fell 31% that quarter. SunrunSunrun
    Who loses
    • Households and small businesses in PJM states, who pay capacity costs spread over every customer.
    • Energy-intensive small manufacturers in the same regions, with no way to bring their own power.
    What would prove it wrong

    PJM's capacity prices fall back as new plants arrive and Middle Atlantic household rates track inflation, or home backup and battery buying keeps following storms and tax credits rather than bills.

    What to watch

    PJM's December 2026 capacity auction, Middle Atlantic household rates in EIA's monthly outlook, Generac's home standby sales, and the device count on EnergyHub and other utility platforms.

    Sources (18)
    • PJM Capacity Auction Procures 138,318 MW of Generation Resources as Work Continues To Address Growing Electricity DemandPJM · Primary · researchThese most recent auctions were the first in PJM history in which the entire RTO fell short of the reliability requirement.This auction also saw the continued trend of the addition of large data center loads to the load forecast that forms the basis of the reliability requirement.The price came in at the FERC-approved cap, $325/MW-day (UCAP) for the entire PJM footprintThese auction results show that demand for electricity continues to grow faster than electricity supplyWholesale capacity acquired through the auction accounts for a fraction of wholesale electricity costsDeveloping “Connect and Manage” frameworks that allow large new loads, such as data centers, to connect to the system but operate flexibly when needed to limit disruptions to other consumers
    • 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction ReportPJM · Primary · research5,249.9 MW increase in forecasted load, largely due to additional Large Loads
    • Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026EIA · Primary · agencyResidential sector United States average ... 17.30 18.21 18.68 ... Middle Atlantic ... 22.70 24.90 25.56Residential electricity prices include other expenses such as transmission and distribution upgrades, capacity market auction prices in some regions, among other expenses.Some regions experienced higher wholesale electricity prices this year mainly due to weather events, such as winter storm Fern and high summer temperatures particularly in July
    • Retail Electricity Price Trends and Drivers: Data Update, 2026 Edition (July 2026 update)Berkeley Lab and Brattle · Primary · researchCase Study: PJM Capacity Auction demonstrates price increases with load growth Accelerated load growth combined with supply and delivery constraints leads to significant price increasesState-level load growth was associated with declining all-sector average retail prices in recent decades, including from 2019 to 2025 in most statesAll-sector average retail prices increased in 2025 vs. 2024: 5.3% in nominal terms, 2.6% in inflation-adjusted termsMaximizing the use of the existing grid and encouraging bring-your-owngeneration (BYOG) can facilitate large-load additions in the near-term
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Generac · Primary · filingIncreased frequency and duration of major power outage events, that have a broader impact beyond a localized level, increases product awareness and may drive consumers to accelerate their purchase of a standby or portable generatora decrease in residential product sales, most notably in home standby and portable generators as a result of the significantly lower power outage environment together with a strong prior year comparison which included multiple major landed hurricanesWhen authorized, ecobee can provide utilities direct connection to a homeowner’s smart thermostat, thereby allowing control of a significant portion of the home’s electrical load. In exchange for this capability, utilities pay ecobee for that connection.Residential products comprised 53.9%, 56.6% and 51.3%, respectively, of total net sales in 2025, 2024 and 2023.
    • Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026Generac · Primary · filingThis modest sales decrease was primarily driven by lower energy storage system and portable generator shipments compared to the prior year, mostly offset by growth in home standby generator sales.The core total sales growth for the segment was primarily driven by ramping revenue from products sold into the global data center market.
    • Second quarter 2026 results (8-K exhibit 99.1)Sunrun · Primary · filingStorage Attachment Rate was 74% in Q2, up from 70% in the prior-year period.In the second quarter of 2026, Subscriber Additions were 19,793, a 31% decrease compared to the second quarter of 2025.
    • Hurricanes in 2024 led to the most hours without power in the United States in 10 yearsEIA · Primary · agencyMajor events such as Hurricanes Beryl, Helene, and Milton accounted for 80% of the hours without electricity in 2024.Service interruptions that aren’t triggered by major events routinely average about two hours per year.
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Enphase Energy · Primary · filingUnder the new law, the Section 25D credit expired on December 31, 2025.
    • Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026Enphase Energy · Primary · filingdriven primarily by a 40% decrease in IQ Batteries MWh shipped, 2% decrease in microinverter units sold and product price decreases.
    • EnergyHub acquires Resideo Grid Services to accelerate VPP growth for utilitiesEnergyHub (Alarm.com) · Primary · companyTogether,we now manage over 2.5 million DERs on one platform, allowing any utility to orchestrate any DER to meet evolving grid needs.EnergyHub’s platform is trusted by more than 120 utilities, who collectively serve more than 55 million customers.
    • 2025 Assessment of Demand Response and Advanced MeteringFERC · Primary · agencythe governor of Virginia signed a law directing Dominion Energy to launch a virtual power plant (VPP) pilot program consisting of DER aggregations totaling up to 450 MW.From 2023 to 2024, total demand response participation in the seven U.S. wholesale markets increased by approximately 217 MW or 0.7 %, to a total of 33,272 MW.require ERCOT to develop a demand management service that enables mandatory curtailment of large loads, such as data centers, during firm load shed events.the 128.4 million advanced meters in operation represent 76.8% of the 167.2 million total meters in operation across all customer classes.
    • DOE Releases New Report on Pathways to Commercial Liftoff for Virtual Power PlantsUS Department of Energy · Primary · agencyDeploying 80-160 GW of VPPs-tripling current scale-by 2030 could expand the U.S. grid’s capacity to reliably support rapid electrification while redirecting grid spending from peaker plants to participants
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Bloom Energy · Primary · filingTo address schedule certainty and bypass grid bottlenecks, large-load customers-particularly data center operators-are increasingly evaluating onsite generation as part of their energy strategy.
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Alarm.com · Primary · filingBy managing DERs at scale, EnergyHub creates virtual power plants, or VPPs, that serve as enterprise-grade flexible grid resources. Utilities use these VPPs to reduce or shift electricity consumption during peak demand periods
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Itron · Primary · filingItron helps utilities and cities operate more efficiently, increase grid resilience and reliability, integrate distributed energy resourcesNetworked Solutions - This segment primarily includes a combination of communicating endpoints (e.g., smart meters, modules, endpoints, and sensors), network infrastructure
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Sunrun · Primary · filing(4) contracted net cash flows from grid services programs with utilities or grid operators
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025NRG Energy · Primary · filingNRG's retail brands, collectively, have the largest share of competitively served residential electric customers in TexasNRG sells a variety of products and services to residential and small commercial customers, in a wide variety of sales channels, including retail electricity, energy management, demand response and/or virtual power plant programs
  6. 06The boomtownsSome AI campuses go where the gas and land are, and their builders need beds thereTHTPLLBWMBEQTSTRLWSC
    How life looks

    In a few rural counties of West Texas and north Louisiana, a data-centre campus is going up beside a new gas power plant, because the grid in the old hubs could not connect it fast enough.

    Building one takes thousands of electricians, pipefitters and ironworkers for two years or more, in places with few hotels or spare houses. Many live in purpose-built work villages with canteens and buses to the site, and land with water and a pipeline beside it finds buyers it never had.

    Most new computing is still built in the established hubs, such as Northern Virginia and Atlanta. The boomtowns are the overflow, not the whole story.

    The chain
    1. FactGrid connections in the established hubs are slow: Virginia's main utility told large new users in 2024 to expect waits 12 to 36 months longer than before. Virginia JLARCCBRE
    2. Our readSome of the largest new campuses are planned beside gas, land and water in places like West Texas and north Louisiana, with power plants nearby.
      What it rests on
      • Chevron is building a large gas power plant for a customer's data centre in Reeves County, West Texas, on land and water bought from Texas Pacific Land. Texas Pacific Land
      • Entergy has asked regulators to approve four new gas units next to a Meta data-centre site in rural north Louisiana. Entergy
      • Texas's grid operator tracks about 474 GW of large loads asking to connect, about 90% of them data centres. ERCOT
      • Virginia's legislative auditors note that training AI models is not sensitive to delay, so those data centres can sit farther from established markets. Virginia JLARC
      • CBRE expects growth to move into markets that can offer both power and development certainty. CBRE
      What cuts against it
      • In Virginia, most data-centre development is still in the established markets, led by Loudoun and Prince William counties. Virginia JLARC
      • Atlanta, not a remote town, was North America's most active data-centre construction market for the first time in the first half of 2026. CBRE
      • On-site gas power also goes to established markets: Williams's first such plant is in New Albany, Ohio, and Virginia's auditors call Ohio a growing data-centre market. WilliamsVirginia JLARC

      Where we looked: Virginia's 2024 JLARC data-centre study, CBRE's first-half 2026 market release, ERCOT's July 2026 Senate briefing, and Williams's and Entergy's 2026 filings.

    3. FactThose sites lack housing nearby while the boom drives hiring of specialty trades, so crews are brought in and housed in purpose-built work villages. Target HospitalityCiveoAssociated Builders and Contractors
    4. Our readOwners of work villages, land, water and on-site gas power near these sites collect while the build lasts, though for several it is still a small business.
      What it rests on
      • Target Hospitality signed four contracts in the first half of 2026 housing crews for AI and power projects, worth more than $1.4 billion. Target Hospitality
      • Texas Pacific Land sold land for $42.5 million and won the exclusive right to supply water to Chevron's data-centre power plant. Texas Pacific Land
      • Williams has agreements to supply on-site gas and power to data-centre and industrial customers in markets short of grid capacity. Williams
      • US data-centre construction spending was up more than 73% in the twelve months to August 2026. Associated Builders and Contractors
      What cuts against it
      • LandBridge's data-centre deal so far is a $2.6 million option fee from a developer owned by its own sponsor, not a signed lease. LandBridge
      • At WillScot, data-centre demand only partly offset a fall in units on rent as ordinary building slowed. WillScot
      • Two customers made up 17% and 16% of Target Hospitality's revenue in the first half of 2026, so one cancelled contract would matter. Target Hospitality

      Where we looked: Risk factors, customer notes and segment discussion in the 2026 quarterly filings of Target Hospitality, LandBridge, WillScot, Civeo and Texas Pacific Land.

    Where the money goes
    Who could win
    • THTarget Hospitality Builds and runs work villages. In the first half of 2026 it signed four contracts housing about 9,000 people working on AI-infrastructure and power projects, worth more than $1.4 billion. Target Hospitality
    • TPLTexas Pacific LandUnattractive Owns about 894,000 surface acres in West Texas. In 2026 it sold Chevron land for $42.5 million and won the right to supply water to a gas plant serving a data centre. Texas Pacific Land
    • LBLandBridge Usually seen as an oilfield landlord in West Texas. A developer owned by its sponsor paid $2.6 million for an option to lease about 3,400 acres for data centres with their own power plants. LandBridge
    • WMBWilliams Usually seen as a gas pipeline company. It builds gas power plants on site for data-centre and industrial customers short of grid power; the first opened in Ohio in July 2026 and four more are agreed. WilliamsWilliams
    • EQTEQTNeutral A large Appalachian gas producer. In 2026 it signed a 10-year deal to supply gas to a new West Virginia power plant, and says data-centre developers seek its long-term supply. EQT
    • STRLSterling Infrastructure Usually seen as a road and site-work contractor. Data centres, factories and chip plants were 92% of its site-development backlog in June 2026; it does not report data centres alone. Sterling Infrastructure
    • WSCWillScot Rents site offices and storage. Its filings say demand from large projects like data centres partly offset a slump in ordinary building sites. WillScot
    Who loses
    • Projects that need grid power in crowded hubs and must wait years for a connection.
    What would prove it wrong

    Faster grid connections and new power lines let the big campuses stay in the established hubs, or the AI build slows and remote projects are cancelled.

    What to watch

    Where new gigawatt campuses are announced, the size of ERCOT's large-load queue, and new contracts at Target Hospitality and land and water deals at Texas Pacific Land.

    Sources (15)
    • Data Centers in Virginia 2024Virginia JLARC · Primary · agencyin July 2024, Dominion sent a letter to customers informing them that future large load additions to any part of the Dominion transmission zone are expected to take 12 to 36 months longer than they have previously takensome AI workloads, such as large language model training, are not latency sensitive, allowing data centers housing these tasks to be located farther from established data center markets.Much of the data center development is occurring in the established markets of Northern Virginia, the Richmond region, and Mecklenburg County.Growing demand from the data center industry in other states, such as the growing Chicago and Ohio markets, could limit how much energy is available to be imported by Virginia utilities.
    • North American Data Center Demand Continues to Outpace Supply Despite Record Construction ActivityCBRE · Primary · researchAlthough power constraints are extending completion timelines, more projects are moving from the planning stageThat dynamic should continue to support rent growth and drive expansion into markets that can offer both power and development certainty.Atlanta emerged as North America's most active construction market for the first time, with nearly 2,900 MW
    • Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026Texas Pacific Land · Primary · filingto provide land and brackish water resources for Chevron’s recently announced development known as Project Kilby, involving a large-scale power generation facility Chevron is developing to support a customer data center in Reeves County, Texas.As part of the agreement, we sold land for aggregate consideration of $ 42.5 million and acquired the exclusive right to source aquifer-derived water for the power generation facilityone of the largest land and royalty owners in the State of Texas with approximately 894,000 surface acres of land, principally concentrated in the Permian Basin.
    • Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026Entergy · Primary · filingestablishing service to a new data center to be developed by a subsidiary of Meta Platforms, Inc. in north Louisiana, for which an electric service agreement was previously executed.Four of the new combined cycle combustion turbine generation resources are to be located near the customer site in north Louisiana (Richland Parish Units 1-4)
    • ERCOT Update, Senate Committee on Business & CommerceERCOT · Primary · agencyERCOT is tracking approximately 474 GW of Large Loads seeking interconnection, of which ~90% are data centers.
    • Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026Williams · Primary · filingThe project consists of the Socrates North and South power generation facilities and associated gas pipeline infrastructure in New Albany, Ohio, which together have an expected 556 MW of capacity. Socrates South was placed into service in late July 2026.Williams has agreed to provide committed power generation and associated gas pipeline infrastructure for four additional Power Innovation projects, Apollo, Aquila, Socrates the Younger, and Neo.
    • Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026Target Hospitality · Primary · filingspecialty rental and hospitality services provided to communities in the Southwestern United States, including Texas, where there is also insufficient housing and infrastructure solutions supporting the development of power generation and data center infrastructure projects.Collectively, these agreements are expected to generate more than $1.4 billion of contracted revenue and support approximately 9,000 individuals over contractual terms ranging from 26 to approximately 60 months.During the first half of 2026, the Company entered into four significant workforce accommodations and hospitality services contracts supporting AI infrastructure development and power generation projects.For the six months ended June 30, 2026, we had two customers, who accounted for 17% and 16% of revenues, respectively, while no other customers accounted for more than 10% of revenues.
    • Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026Civeo · Primary · filingthere is increasing demand for our assets and services tied to data center construction, electrification projects and associated infrastructure. This is principally occurring in the United States (U.S.)
    • ABC: Data Centers Power Construction Job Growth in SeptemberAssociated Builders and Contractors · Primary · researchIndustry employment growth is increasingly concentrated on the nonresidential side as the data center boom continues to support rapid hiring of certain specialty trade contractors.
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Williams · Primary · filingWilliams is investing in construction projects to support the power demands created by new data center and industrial development in power grid-constrained markets, including agreements with a large, investment-grade company to provide onsite natural gas and power generation
    • ABC: Data Center Construction Spending Growing at 149% Annualized Pace Since MarchAssociated Builders and Contractors · Primary · researchData center construction spending leapt another 7.5% in August and is now up more than 73% over the past 12 months.
    • Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026LandBridge · Primary · filingIn connection with the lease development agreement, PowerBridge paid a non-refundable option fee of $ 2.6 million during the first quarter of 2026DBR is party to a lease development agreement with PowerBridge LLC, a portfolio company of Five Point (“PowerBridge”).The lease development agreement provides PowerBridge the option to lease up to approximately 3,400 acres of land in Reeves County, Texas, for the development of one or more data centers, including power generation facilities.
    • Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026WillScot · Primary · filingLower demand was driven by reduced non-residential construction project starts due to higher interest rates and increased economic uncertainty, partially offset by increased demand for large complex projects like data centers.
    • Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: second-quarter 2026 results releaseEQT · Primary · filingAs power generators and data center developers increasingly look to secure reliable, long-term energy supply, EQT has become the partner of choice in AppalachiaSigned 10-year definitive agreement with Competitive Power Ventures (CPV) to supply 325,000 Dth/d of natural gas to the CPV Shay Energy Center in Doddridge County, WV
    • Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: second-quarter 2026 results releaseSterling Infrastructure · Primary · filingMission-critical projects-including data centers, manufacturing, and semiconductor facilities-represented 92% of E-Infrastructure backlog at quarter end.
  7. 07The ten-person companyMore one-person firms and fewer junior hires: fees per business or payment gain, per employee loseOSCRSHOPGDDYBILLVRSN
    How life looks

    A friend runs a profitable furniture brand with four employees and software doing customer service, ads, bookkeeping and supplier chasing. A consulting firm is three partners and no juniors, because the first-draft work juniors once did is done by software.

    Many people work for themselves. Some employers give staff a fixed monthly sum to buy their own health plan instead of running a group plan, though big employers are moving faster than small ones and most people still get cover through work.

    The chain
    1. Our readAI is starting to cut hiring into junior office jobs; so far it shows up as fewer young hires rather than layoffs across the economy.
      What it rests on
      • Young US workers in AI-exposed jobs are now 19% below where their employment would be had it kept pace with less-exposed peers; experienced workers show no gap. Stanford Digital Economy Lab
      • The gap comes mainly from fewer young people being hired, not from more being let go. Stanford Digital Economy Lab
      • Paycom, which charges per employee, warns that AI may reduce its clients' need for employees. Paycom
      What cuts against it
      • The same Stanford study finds no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement. Stanford Digital Economy Lab
      • Census found firms adopting AI mostly reported no change in their worker numbers (2020 to 2022 data). US Census Bureau
      • AI use rose at firms with 20 or more employees from December 2025 to May 2026 but not at smaller firms; under 20% of the smallest firms use it. US Census Bureau

      Where we looked: Stanford's payroll-data study, the Census Bureau's business surveys on AI use and on technology's effect on headcount, and payroll companies' 10-K risk factors.

    2. Our readBusinesses with no employees keep multiplying faster than firms with staff, and AI may add to a trend that began long before it.
      What it rests on
      • US businesses with no paid employees grew 2.7% a year from 2012 to 2023, against 1.1% for businesses with staff. US Census Bureau
      • Applications to start a US business rose from about 3.5 million in 2019 to about 5.7 million in 2025 (our sum of the Census monthly figures). US Census Bureau
      • Applications Census flags as likely to hire grew far less, from about 1.3 million in 2019 to 1.7 million in 2025 (our sum). US Census Bureau
      What cuts against it
      • Businesses with no employees have grown almost every year since 1997, long before generative AI, so the trend alone does not show AI's effect. US Census Bureau
      • Growth in businesses with no employees slowed to 2.1% in 2023 from the post-pandemic spike. US Census Bureau
      • The smallest firms are not increasing their AI use, while larger firms are. US Census Bureau

      Where we looked: Census Nonemployer Statistics, the Business Formation Statistics data file, and the Census AI-use survey by firm size.

    3. Our readFees charged per employee grow only as fast as clients' headcount, while fees per business or per payment grow with the number of firms and their activity.
      What it rests on
      • Paycom says any rise or fall in its clients' employee numbers raises or lowers its results. Paycom
      • Employees on the payrolls of ADP's existing US clients grew only 1% in the year to June 2026. ADP
      • Salesforce lists fewer users at its customers, and the spread of usage-based pricing, among the risks to its renewals. Salesforce
      • BILL earns a fee on each payment it processes, fixed or a percentage of the amount. BILL
      What cuts against it
      • Microsoft 365's commercial seats grew 6% in its year to June 2026, led by small and medium businesses. Microsoft
      • The number of businesses using BILL fell 3% to 479,300 in the year to June 2026, so a per-business count can shrink too. BILL

      Where we looked: The 10-Ks of Paycom, ADP, Salesforce, Microsoft and BILL, for seat counts, payroll headcount and pricing-model risk.

    4. Our readSome employers swap group health plans for a fixed allowance that staff spend on individual plans, so far led by large employers and from a small base.
      What it rests on
      • More than 500,000 people were covered through these allowances (ICHRAs) at the start of 2026. HRA Council
      • Large employers are the fastest-growing group adopting ICHRA, more than doubling in a year. HRA Council
      • More than two-thirds of small businesses offering ICHRA in 2026 had offered no health cover before. HRA Council
      • Nearly a third of small employers using ICHRA moved from the small-group insurance market. HRA Council
      What cuts against it
      • Employment-based insurance still covered 53.8% of Americans in 2024, so 500,000 ICHRA lives is a very small share. US Census Bureau
      • Oscar, the insurer betting most on ICHRA, says it has limited data to validate key parts of its growth strategy. Oscar Health

      Where we looked: The Census Bureau's 2024 health insurance report, the HRA Council's 2026 data release, and Oscar Health's 10-K risk factors.

    Where the money goes
    • FactTools priced per business or per payment: online shops, small-business accounting and bill payment. ShopifyXeroBILL
    • FactIndividual health plans bought with employer allowances. Oscar HealthHRA Council
    • FactWeb addresses and websites, one per business. VerisignGoDaddy
    • FactAway from payroll and HR fees that rise only with each client's headcount. PaycomADP
    Who could win
    • OSCROscar HealthNeutral An insurer selling individual plans that employees can buy with an employer's ICHRA allowance; it says ICHRA will disrupt employer group coverage, though it also says it has limited data to prove it. Oscar Health
    • SHOPShopify A shop per business, not per employee; about three-quarters of its revenue is fees on merchants' sales, mainly payment processing. Shopify
    • GDDYGoDaddyAttractive Sells domains and websites to 20.4 million customers, from small businesses and individuals to domain investors, sold per customer rather than per worker. GoDaddy
    • BILLBILL Usually seen as bill-paying software for small firms. Most of what it earns is a fee on each payment: $1.21 billion of $1.65 billion revenue in the year to June 2026. BILL
    • VRSNVerisign Runs the .com and .net registries, so it collects a fee on every new web address whoever sells it. New registrations rose to 41.7 million in 2025 from 37.4 million. Verisign
    Who loses
    • Payroll and HR software whose fees rise and fall with each client's employee count.PAYCPCTY
    • Small-group health insurance, as some small employers move staff to allowances for individual plans.
    What would prove it wrong

    AI keeps spreading faster in large firms than small ones, so scale wins; or one-person business growth stays at its pre-AI pace and ICHRA stays a fraction of a percent of work-based cover.

    What to watch

    Census counts of businesses with no employees and AI use by firm size, payroll firms' employees per client, and the HRA Council's yearly ICHRA count.

    Sources (17)
    • Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence (revised)Stanford Digital Economy Lab · Primary · researchemployment of young workers (ages 22-25) in AI-exposed occupations now stands 19% below where it would be had it kept pace with that of their less-exposed peers; experienced workers show no comparable gap.It operates primarily through reduced hiring of young workers rather than increased separations.We find no evidence of widespread, economy-wide job displacement.
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Paycom · Primary · filingmore tasks historically performed by people have been and may continue to be replaced by automation, robotics, AI and other technological advances outside of our control, which may reduce our clients’ need for existing or future employeesAny increase or decrease in the number of employees of our clients will have a positive or negative impact, respectively, on our results of operations.
    • How AI and Other Technology Impacted Businesses and WorkersUS Census Bureau · Primary · agencyContrary to conventional wisdom, the 2023 ABS (which produced 2022 data) found that adoption of technology, including AI, did not change overall worker numbers.
    • Large Firms With at Least 20 Employees Biggest AI UsersUS Census Bureau · Primary · agencyBetween December 2025 and May 2026, AI use increased among firms with at least 20 employees but didn’t change significantly among firms with fewer than 20 employees. Less than 20% of firms with four or fewer employees reported using AI.
    • Number of U.S. Nonemployers Grew Faster Than Employer Businesses Nearly Every Year From 2012 to 2023US Census Bureau · Primary · agencyFrom 2012 to 2023, the total number of nonemployers grew an average 2.7% annually, while employers averaged only 1.1% year-over-year growth.The total number of U.S. nonemployer establishments increased every year from 1997 to 2023 except during the financial crisis in 2008The data show nonemployer establishments climbed 2.1% in 2023, a slowdown compared to early post-COVID growth
    • Business Formation Statistics, monthly data file (bfs_monthly.csv)US Census Bureau · Primary · agencyU,TOTAL,BA_BA,US,2025,499440,442701,501015,585822,425999,428838,513667,429362,446242,539537,426732,432481U,TOTAL,BA_BA,US,2019,354645,319386,327817,299736,343448,270168,240116,325625,249711,315344,228596,224398U,TOTAL,BA_HBA,US,2025,165133,144167,151767,182533,136910,134376,156758,128629,123293,150191,113578,121507U,TOTAL,BA_HBA,US,2019,132675,116440,118612,113578,133593,104840,91048,123643,93927,117347,85958,84530
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 30 June 2026ADP · Primary · filinggrew 1% for the year ended June 30, 2026 as compared to the year ended June 30, 2025.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 January 2026Salesforce · Primary · filingdecreases in the number of users at our customers, competition, pricing increases or changes, such as the increased prevalence of consumption-based pricing models and economic downturns.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 30 June 2026BILL · Primary · filingTransaction fees are fees collected for each transaction processed, on either a fixed or variable fee basis.Businesses using our solutions (1) | 479,300 | 493,800 | 474,600 | (3) | %Transaction fees | 1,211,203 | 1,028,668 | 182,535 | 18 | %The Company's revenue was $1,653 million for the year ended June 30, 2026.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 30 June 2026Microsoft · Primary · filingMicrosoft 365 Commercial seats grew 6% driven by small and medium businesses and frontline worker offerings.
    • 2026 Growth Trends for ICHRA & QSEHRA Report: news releaseHRA Council · Primary · researchThe data suggests the number of ICHRA-covered lives alone (not including the thousands of QSEHRA-covered lives) surpassed 500,000 at the beginning of 2026.Applicable Large Employers (ALEs) represent the fastest growing segment of ICHRA adoption, more than doubling on average since last year.More than two-thirds of small businesses offering ICHRA and 93% of those newly offering QSEHRA in 2026 previously offered no health coverage to their employees.Nearly a third of small employers who have adopted ICHRA moved from the often challenging small group market.
    • Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2024 (P60-288)US Census Bureau · Primary · agencyemployment-based insurance was the most common, covering 53.8 percent of the population for some or all of the calendar year
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Oscar Health · Primary · filingwe have limited data to validate key aspects of our business model, including our growth strategy.Employees whose employers have chosen to offer an ICHRA are also able to purchase Oscar’s health plans.We continue to believe ICHRA will disrupt employer group coverage and expand individual insurance beyond the traditional ACA market.
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Shopify · Primary · filingWe principally generate merchant solutions revenues from payment processing fees and currency conversion fees from Shopify Payments, our fully integrated payment solution.In the year ended December 31, 2025, subscription solutions revenues accounted for 24% of our total revenues
    • Market release: Xero delivers strong FY26 resultsXero · Primary · filingdriven by a combination of strong customer growth, continued average revenue per customer (ARPC) expansion and an increase in payments revenue, which includes Melio’s revenue contribution.
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Verisign · Primary · filingDuring 2025, we processed 41.7 million new domain name registrations for . com and . net compared to 37.4 million in 2024.
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025GoDaddy · Primary · filingOur 20.4 million customers are passionate and determined to transform their ideas into something meaningful.We serve small businesses, individuals, organizations, developers, designers and domain investors.
  8. 08Single-job robots before humanoidsRobots that do one job spread through warehouses, farms, roads and homes long before humanoidsHSAIOUSTDEAURTKR
    How life looks

    You still do not have a humanoid robot at home, but a robot vacuums the floor and another mows the lawn. More of the parcels in the warehouse that ships your order are moved by robots, and a few hundred trucks on Texas highways have no driver.

    The farm next door sprays weeds plant by plant with a camera rig. Each of these machines needs precision gears, motors and sensors, and a growing share of the factory robots that make them are built in China.

    The chain
    1. Our readBetter machine vision and easier programming are making robots cheaper to put into new jobs, though progress is slower and patchier than the excitement suggests.
      What it rests on
      • The robot industry's own federation says advances in AI, machine vision and sensing, with easier programming and integration, are reducing the cost of deploying robots. IFR
      • Hesai shipped about three times as many lidar sensors for robots in the June 2026 quarter as a year earlier. Hesai
      • Harmonic Drive's North American sales rose on orders for AI robots in the year to March 2026. Harmonic Drive Systems
      • Ouster's product sales grew 51% in the June 2026 quarter, led by warehouse automation, yard logistics and intelligent transport customers. Ouster
      What cuts against it
      • Harmonic Drive says real-world use of AI robots is running behind the plan it set in 2024, because that market is still in its early days. Harmonic Drive Systems
      • Teradyne's robot sales fell 15.5% in 2025 on lower sales of collaborative robot arms and mobile robots. Teradyne
      • Deere warns that data, security and privacy concerns could slow farmers' acceptance of autonomous machines. Deere
      • Most humanoid robot uses are still specialised pilots that often need a person steering them remotely. IFR

      Where we looked: IFR's 2026 industrial and service robot releases, Harmonic Drive's annual securities report, Teradyne's and Deere's 10-Ks, and Hesai's and Ouster's June-quarter results.

    2. FactRobots that do one job already sell by the hundred thousand in factories and warehouses, and by the million in homes; humanoids sell in the thousands. IFRIFR
    3. FactOutside the factory, the first paid work is narrow: camera-guided weed spraying on five million acres, and driverless trucks on Texas routes, about 440,000 driverless miles so far. DeereAurora Innovation
    4. FactRobot joints need precision gears and magnet motors, and robots need sensors to see; Japanese makers lead the gears for robot arms. Harmonic Drive SystemsNabtescoIEAHesai
    5. Our readThe parts makers collect whichever robot brand wins, but in China, the largest robot market, local robot and gear makers are winning share.
      What it rests on
      • Nabtesco estimates it holds about 60% of the world market for gears in the joints of medium and large industrial robots. Nabtesco
      • China installed 59% of the world's new industrial robots in 2025. IFR
      • Chinese robot makers sold 55% of the robots installed in China in 2025. IFR
      • Leaderdrive, a Chinese gear maker, says its share of the industrial robot market kept rising in 2025. Leaderdrive
      • China made 94% of the world's sintered permanent magnets in 2024. IEA
      What cuts against it
      • Harmonic Drive's sales in China fell 28% in the year to March 2026 because its industrial robot sales there fell. Harmonic Drive Systems
      • Nabtesco's gear sales rose in the first half of 2026 on demand from car makers in China and South Korea. Nabtesco

      Where we looked: IFR's 2026 country data, Harmonic Drive's segment results, Nabtesco's half-year results and briefing, and Leaderdrive's 2025 results preview on the Shanghai exchange.

    Where the money goes
    Who could win
    • HSAIHesaiNeutral Lidar maker, mostly for cars, whose robot lidar shipments roughly tripled to 142,371 units in the June 2026 quarter. Hesai
    • OUSTOusterNeutral Lidar and camera maker whose sales growth is led by warehouse automation and yard logistics customers. It still loses money. Ouster
    • DEDeereNeutral Its See & Spray camera rigs, which spray only the weeds, covered more than five million acres in 2025, sold on a per-acre fee. Deere
    • AURAurora Innovation Runs driverless trucks on Texas freight routes, about 440,000 driverless miles by June 2026, but earned only $2 million of revenue that quarter. Aurora Innovation
    • TKRTimken Mostly a bearing maker, but its Spinea and Cone Drive lines make cycloidal and harmonic reduction gears for automation and robots. Robot sales are not reported separately. Timken
    Who loses
    • Warehouse staffing agencies and long-haul driver pools on fixed highway routes.
    • Makers of robot parts that lose Chinese customers to local suppliers.
    What would prove it wrong

    Logistics and farm robot sales stall, driverless trucks stay a few hundred on a few routes, or Chinese gear makers take the robot joints so the Japanese gear makers' robot orders shrink.

    What to watch

    IFR's yearly logistics robot count, Aurora's driverless truck count and miles, the gear makers' robot orders split by China and the rest, and See & Spray acres.

    Sources (14)
    • Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories GloballyIFR · Primary · researchadvances in artificial intelligence, machine vision and sensing are increasing robot capabilities, while easier programming and system integration are reducing deployment costs and opening automation to new applications and customer groups.Factories worldwide installed more than 600,000 new units over the year.Annual installations grew by 20% year-on-year and now account for 59% of global deployments.Chinese manufacturers have sold more than foreign suppliers in their home country. Their installations rose by 15%, reaching 195,000 units - a domestic market share of 55% in 2025 compared to 57% in 2024.
    • Hesai Group Reports Second Quarter 2026 Unaudited Financial Results (Exhibit 99.1 to Form 6-K)Hesai · Primary · filingQ2 2026 Robotics lidar shipments were 142,371 units, representing an increase of 193.4% from 48,531 units in the corresponding period of 2025.Q2 2026 ADAS lidar shipments were 485,904 units, representing an increase of 60.1% from 303,564 units
    • Annual Securities Report, 38th fiscal year (April 2025 to March 2026), English translationHarmonic Drive Systems · Primary · filingNet sales increased by 4.1% year on year to ¥12,107 million, reflecting an increase in orders received for AI robots, despite a decline in orders received for defense applications.as the market is still in its early days, the pace of real-world implementation is beginning to diverge from the assumptions made at the time of formulating the medium-term management planthe HarmonicDrive®, with its compact size, lightweight, and high precision, has won a high worldwide market share as a speed reducer built into the joints of industrial robotsNet sales decreased by 28.0% year on year to ¥4,046 million due to a fall in sales for industrial robots.consolidated orders received for the full year increased by 16.2% year on year to ¥61,613 million.
    • Ouster Announces Results for Second Quarter 2026 (Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K)Ouster · Primary · filingProduct revenue of $53 million was an increase of 51% year over year and 9% sequentially, primarily driven by customers in the industrial and smart infrastructure verticals for use cases in warehouse automation, yard logistics, and intelligent transportation.GAAP net loss of $18 million, an improvement of $2 million year over year
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025Teradyne · Primary · filingThe decrease in Robotics revenues of $56.5 million, or 15.5%, was primarily due to lower sales of collaborative robotic arms and autonomous mobile robots.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 2 November 2025Deere · Primary · filingsystem security concerns, or the protection of privacy could impair the adoption and acceptance of autonomous machine solutions.These customers are increasingly adopting and integrating precision agricultural technologies like guidance, telematics, automation, and data-driven management in their operations.
    • Global Sales of Professional Service Robots Surge 24%IFR · Primary · researchWhile recent advances in AI, sensors and control systems have enabled impressive pilot projects, most current applications remain specialized and often require human teleoperation.Transportation and logistics stays in the lead as top application, with 117,500 units sold in 2025. This was up 21%, and represents a market share of 47%.Overall sales of consumer robots increased by 37% to almost 34.2 million units in 2025.In 2025, about 7,000 units of full-size humanoids (above 140 cm) were sold globally.
    • John Deere Customers Use See & Spray Technology Across Five Million Acres in 2025 (copy hosted by AgriMarketing)Deere · Primary · companyJohn Deere's See & Spray technology was used across more than five million acres of farmland during the 2025 growing seasonSee & Spray uses boom-mounted cameras and onboard processors to scan over 2,500 square feet per second at up to 15 miles-per-hour, identifying weeds and triggering individual spray nozzlesfarmers and custom applicators pay for See & Spray, via a per acre fee, when the technology delivers measurable savings.
    • Second Quarter 2026 Shareholder Letter (Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K)Aurora Innovation · Primary · filingthe Aurora Driver completed nearly 440,000 driverless miles since launch through the end of JuneValue Truck, a fast-growing cross-border carrier, will initially deploy the Aurora Driver on two routes: Dallas-Laredo and Fort Worth-PhoenixWe anticipate exiting the year with more than 200 driverless trucks in operationSecond quarter 2026 revenue totaled $2 million across driverless and vehicle operator-supervised commercial loads.Second quarter operating loss, including stock-based compensation (SBC), totaled $266 million.
    • Results briefing material for the second quarter of FY2026Nabtesco · Primary · companyApprox. 60% world market sharePrecision Reduction Gears's orders in 26/Q2 were steadily increasing at QoQ+11% YoY+23%.
    • Rare Earth Elements: Pathways to secure and diversified supply chains (copy hosted by Sprott)IEA · Primary · agencyGrowth in automation, robotics and digital technologies plays an increasing role in driving demand beyond 2030, as permanent magnets enable precision motion control, miniaturisation and energy efficiency improvement for these applications.In 2005, China accounted for around 50% of the production of sintered permanent magnets, but its share expanded significantly to reach 94% in 2024.
    • 2025年年度业绩预告 (2025 annual results preview, Shanghai exchange announcement 2026-003)Leaderdrive · Primary · exchange工业机器人行业迎来回暖态势,市场需求持续释放,公司凭借深厚的行业积累与产品竞争力,在该领域保持稳步增长,市场份额持续提升
    • Summary of consolidated financial statements for the second quarter of the fiscal year ending 31 December 2026Nabtesco · Primary · exchangeSales of precision reduction gears increased year-on-year due to favorable demand for industrial robots mainly from automobile manufacturers in China and South Korea and general industries.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025Timken · Primary · filingThe Company's Spinea® line features highly engineered cycloidal reduction gears and actuators. Spinea's solutions primarily serve high precision automation and robotics applications in the factory automation sector.These products include Cone Drive® high-torque worm gears, harmonic solutions and precision slew drives.
  9. 09Live stays scarce as machine content floodsMachines flood screens with content; live seats stay scarce, but spending has not yet shiftedTKOLYVFWONKSPHRMSGE
    How life looks

    Feeds carry more songs, clips and stories than anyone could hear, and a growing share is made by machines. Most of it goes unheard: people still mostly listen to, and pay for, music and shows made by people, and recorded music keeps growing.

    What cannot be copied is the night itself: the final, the stadium tour, the race weekend, the Christmas show. Their owners keep filling seats at rising prices, though across the economy going out takes roughly the same share of household spending as before the pandemic.

    The chain
    1. FactMachines now make music at industrial scale: at the June 2026 peak, over half of new tracks delivered to Deezer, about 90,000 a day, were fully AI-made. Deezer
    2. Our readThat flood may yet squeeze recordings and stock libraries, but it had not by 2025: listeners mostly ignore AI tracks, and recorded music and streaming kept growing.
      What it rests on
      • A CISAC study forecasts that AI-made music could put 24% of music creators' revenue at risk in 2028 and take about 60% of music libraries' revenue. CISAC
      • Getty Images warns that AI images and video can directly compete with or substitute for the content it licenses. Getty Images
      • Fully AI-made music was only 1% to 3% of all streams on Deezer, although it was half of uploads at peak. Deezer
      • Global recorded music revenue grew 6.4% to $31.7 billion in 2025, its eleventh straight year of growth. IFPI
      • Netflix's revenue grew 16% in 2025, helped by price increases. Netflix
      What cuts against it
      • AI tracks already take money from recordings through fraud: Deezer found up to 85% of their streams in 2025 were fraudulent. Deezer
      • Getty Images' creative-image revenue still grew 0.7% in 2025, so stock libraries had not yet shrunk either. Getty Images

      Where we looked: IFPI's 2026 report, Deezer's AI-upload release, the CISAC/PMP Strategy study, and Netflix's and Getty Images' 2025 annual reports, including Getty's risk factors and revenue tables.

    3. FactThe companies that stage live events keep growing: Live Nation drew a record 159 million concert fans in 2025, while Eventim's ticketing and HYBE's concert revenue rose. Live NationCTS EventimHYBE
    4. Our readAcross the US economy, spending has not clearly shifted toward live shows; the gain sits with the few owners of the scarcest dates, seats and rights.
      What it rests on
      • In real terms, US spending on live entertainment other than sports rose 15.5% from 2019 to 2025, against 17.9% for all consumer spending. BEABEA
      • US prices for admission to movies, theaters and concerts rose 28% from August 2019 to August 2026, against 31% for all consumer prices. BLSBLS
      • Live Nation sold more concert tickets in 2025 but fewer fee-bearing tickets for sports, arts and family shows. Live Nation
      • The Rockettes' Christmas Spectacular sold over 1.2 million tickets in its 2025 season, up from about 1.1 million, with higher attendance per show and higher average ticket yield. MSG Entertainment
      What cuts against it
      • The BEA's price index for live entertainment other than sports rose 25.9% from 2019 to 2025, a little faster than the 22.6% for all consumer prices. BEABEA

      Where we looked: BEA consumer-spending and price series for live entertainment, BLS admission prices, and the 2025 annual reports of Live Nation and MSG Entertainment.

    5. Our readThrough 2029, money for in-person events and live rights should keep flowing to owners of scarce rights, dates and venues; whether AI speeds that up is unproven.
      What it rests on
      • TKO says it gains from rising competition for premium live sports rights; WWE's revenue rose 22% in 2025, led by media fees including a new Netflix deal. TKO Group
      • Netflix, built on recorded shows, has added live programming to its service. Netflix
      • Formula 1 holds its championship's commercial rights until 2110, and its race-promotion fees rose in 2025 under contract. Liberty Media
      • Revenue at Sphere, the Las Vegas venue, rose by about a quarter in 2025 to $781 million. Sphere Entertainment
      What cuts against it
      • In April 2026 a US jury found for the states on all remaining antitrust claims against Live Nation and Ticketmaster; remedies are still to be set. Live Nation
      • Live Nation's settlement with the US government includes injunctive and structural relief and a $280 million fund. Live Nation
      • Formula 1 warns that its race and media contracts may not renew on similar terms when they expire. Liberty Media

      Where we looked: Live Nation's latest 10-Q legal note, Formula 1's risk factors, TKO's and Sphere's 2025 annual reports, and the BEA spending data.

    Where the money goes
    • FactMedia rights to live sport and entertainment, which streamers now buy: WWE's weekly shows went to Netflix and UFC moved to Paramount. TKO Group
    • FactConcert promotion and ticketing, where Live Nation and CTS Eventim both grew in 2025. Live NationCTS Eventim
    • FactVenues and shows that must be seen in person, from Sphere in Las Vegas to the Christmas Spectacular in New York. Sphere EntertainmentMSG Entertainment
    • FactCalendars of dated events, such as Formula 1's race weekends, sold to race promoters for fees that rise under contract. Liberty Media
    Who could win
    • TKOTKO Group Owns UFC and WWE, sold as live, one-off events. WWE's revenue rose 22% in 2025 on higher media fees, including its weekly shows' move to Netflix. TKO Group
    • LYVLive NationNeutral The largest concert promoter, with a record 159 million fans in 2025, and through Ticketmaster a seller of 346 million fee-bearing tickets. A US jury ruled against it on antitrust in April 2026. Live NationLive Nation
    • FWONKLiberty Media (Formula One) Holds Formula 1's commercial rights until 2110, a calendar of race weekends that cannot be copied; its race-promotion fees rose in 2025 under contract. Liberty Media
    • SPHRSphere Entertainment Its Las Vegas Sphere is built to be experienced in person, and its revenue rose by about a quarter in 2025. The company's regional sports TV networks keep losing subscribers. Sphere Entertainment
    • MSGEMadison Square Garden Entertainment Usually seen as a New York venue company. It runs Madison Square Garden, Radio City and the Beacon and produces the Rockettes' Christmas Spectacular; revenue rose 13% in the year to June 2026. MSG Entertainment
    Who loses
    • Stock music and image libraries, if machine-made content takes the share a CISAC study forecasts for 2028.
    • Regional sports TV networks losing pay-TV subscribers, such as Sphere Entertainment's own MSG Networks.
    • Ticket buyers, while ticketing stays concentrated and its fees are set by few sellers.
    What would prove it wrong

    Attendance or ticket yields fall at Live Nation, Eventim and the big venues while recorded music keeps growing, or the Live Nation antitrust remedies break up Ticketmaster and cap its fees.

    What to watch

    Deezer's AI share of uploads and of streams, BEA spending on live entertainment against all consumer spending, Live Nation's fan count, and the remedies phase of the Live Nation antitrust case.

    Sources (19)
  10. 10Thirsty machinesChip plants and AI data centres make water a local issue, and treating it a businessECLVLTOXYLDD
    How life looks

    In Tucson, a big new water user has to file a conservation plan that anyone can read, and cover part of its needs with recycled water. Next door in Marana, the town will not sell drinking water to cool a data centre.

    Inside the newest data halls, chips sit on sealed loops of coolant that are filled once and then tested and treated, rather than topped up from the tap. Down the road, chip factories make water purer than any drinking supply, and recycle as much of it as they can.

    The chain
    1. FactData centres and chip plants use a lot of water: US data centres' own use roughly tripled from 2014 to 2023, and chipmaking needs ultrapure water. Berkeley LabGoogleTSMCOrgano
    2. FactThe strain is local, not national: data centres use about 2% of US water, but cluster in dry places like central Arizona, and Taiwan's chip plants face droughts. Congressional Research ServiceTSMC
    3. FactSome dry towns now attach water terms to big users: Tucson requires 30% recycled water, and Marana refuses drinking water for data-centre cooling. City of TucsonCongressional Research Service
    4. Our readSo new sites use less fresh water: data centres move to sealed cooling loops and chip plants recycle, shifting spending to treatment, reuse and loop chemistry.
      What it rests on
      • Since August 2024 every new Microsoft data-centre design uses chip-level cooling that evaporates no water, in a loop filled once at construction. Microsoft
      • Many data-centre operators want to switch to recycled water for cooling, the Congressional Research Service reports, citing the EPA. Congressional Research Service
      • Ecolab paid $1.6 billion in December 2025 for Ovivo's ultrapure-water business for chip plants. Ecolab
      • ChemTreat became a national service provider for Dow's network that tests and treats the coolant in AI data-centre liquid-cooling loops. ChemTreat
      • Organo says leading-edge chip plants use large amounts of water for cleaning, and recover and reuse more than 80% of it. Organo
      What cuts against it
      • Most of a US data centre's water footprint is at the power stations that supply it: about 800 billion litres against 66 billion used on site in 2023. Berkeley Lab
      • There are no federal laws or regulations on water reuse in the US; rules are left to states and towns. Congressional Research Service
      • Microsoft's existing fleet will still use a mix of air- and water-cooled systems, so old sites change slowly. Microsoft
      • 72% of Google's fresh water in 2025 came from places at low risk of scarcity, and only 13% from high-risk places. Google

      Where we looked: Berkeley Lab's 2024 data-centre report, the Congressional Research Service's 2026 water FAQ, Google's 2026 environmental report, Microsoft's cooling design note, and TSMC's 20-F risk factors.

    5. Our readWater use still grows with AI, so the companies that treat, purify and recycle industrial water report rising sales from these customers.
      What it rests on
      • Berkeley Lab expects US hyperscale data centres alone to use 60 to 124 billion litres of water a year by 2028. Berkeley Lab
      • Google's water consumption rose 34% from 2024 to 2025. Google
      • Ecolab's global high-tech business grew strongly, by double digits, in 2025, driven by data centres and microelectronics. Ecolab
      • Organo says chip investment in Taiwan and the US keeps its electronics orders and sales rising. Organo
      • Veolia targets over €1 billion a year of revenue from data centres and chipmakers by 2030. Veolia
      What cuts against it
      • Data centres' direct water use is about 2% of total US water consumption. Congressional Research Service
      • New zero-evaporation designs avoid the fresh water that cooling towers would have needed, which shrinks the volume to be treated. Microsoft

      Where we looked: Ecolab's, Xylem's and Veralto's 2025 10-Ks for data-centre figures (none disclosed), Organo's and Kurita's results, Berkeley Lab's projections and Microsoft's cooling designs.

    Where the money goes
    • FactUltrapure-water plants for chip factories, and the long-term service contracts that run them. KuritaOrganoEcolab
    • FactTreatment chemistry for cooling towers and for the sealed liquid-cooling loops in AI data centres. EcolabChemTreatVeralto
    • FactSystems that recycle and reuse water at chip plants and data centres. XylemVeoliaTSMC
    Who could win
    • ECLEcolab Treats cooling water and makes ultrapure water through its Nalco business; its high-tech unit grew by double digits in 2025 on data centres and chips, and it bought Ovivo's chip-plant water business for $1.6 billion. Ecolab
    • VLTOVeralto Usually seen as the owner of Hach water-testing instruments. Its ChemTreat unit treats industrial cooling water and in 2026 became a national provider servicing the coolant loops in AI data centres for Dow; data centres are not reported separately. VeraltoChemTreat
    • XYLXylemNeutral Mostly pumps and meters for city utilities, but its services arm runs outsourced water and recycling for industrial sites, including chipmakers. Xylem
    • DDDuPont Makes the ion-exchange resins and filtration membranes that purify water, and named semiconductor markets as a source of strength for its water unit in mid-2026. It sells parts for the plants, not the plants, and chip sales are not separated. DuPontDuPont
    Who loses
    • Data-centre builders in dry towns, who face extra cost and delay to secure recycled or non-drinking water.
    • Older evaporative cooling designs, as new sites switch to sealed loops that use little water.
    What would prove it wrong

    Sealed cooling loops and on-site recycling cut water use so far that towns stop attaching water terms, and chip-plant building slows, so treatment and ultrapure-water spending at these sites stops growing.

    What to watch

    Water terms in data-centre approvals in Arizona and other dry places, Ecolab's global high-tech growth, and Kurita's and Organo's electronics orders.

    Sources (15)
    • 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage ReportBerkeley Lab · Primary · agencyIn 2014, data centers consumed 21.2 billion liters of water, with 64% in internal data centers. By 2023, hyperscale and colocation account for 84% of the 66-billion-liter totalThe total indirect water footprint of U.S. data centers is nearly 800 billion liters, attributed to water consumed indirectly through electricity useHyperscale data centers in 2028 are expected to consume between 60 and 124 billion liters.
    • Google 2026 Environmental ReportGoogle · Primary · companyOur water consumption increased 34% from 2024 to 2025 as we continued to meet the world’s increasing demand for digital servicesLow risk of water depletion or scarcity % 72 Medium risk of water depletion or scarcity % 15 High risk of water depletion or scarcity % 13
    • Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025TSMC · Primary · filingThe semiconductor manufacturing process uses extensive amounts of electricity and water.the droughts that Taiwan experiences from time to time, raise ongoing concerns regarding future availability of sufficient electricity and water for our production in Taiwan.Land Lease with Southern Taiwan Science Park Administration relating to T-Site Water Reclamation Plant (effective April 1, 2020 to March 31, 2040)
    • 2026年3月期 決算説明会資料 (results presentation for the year to March 2026, filed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange)Organo · Primary · exchange半導体工場では洗浄用水など大量の水を使用するが、最先端の工場では80%以上の水を回収し再利用。電子産業は台湾・米国など最先端半導体の投資続く、受注・売上は拡大傾向で推移オルガノはウェハーやチップの洗浄に用いられる超純水の供給設備、洗浄や他の製造工程で生じる排水を無害化・廃棄物を低減するための処理設備、水のリサイクルシステム
    • Data Centers and Water: Frequently Asked Questions (R49057)Congressional Research Service · Primary · agencyis estimated to make up a relatively small proportion (approximately 2%) of total U.S. water consumption.a 2026 study found that 66 data centers were completed or under construction in Central Arizona.“The Marana water department will not provide potable water to a data center (principal or accessory use) for its cooling system, humidity control, and other similar operations”many data center operators are interested in transitioning to recycled water for cooling purposes but face an unclear permitting pathway for this specific use.At the federal level, there are no laws or regulations governing water reuse.
    • Ordinance No. 12188, Large Quantity Water Users (copy hosted by WWALS Watershed Coalition)City of Tucson · Primary · agencyThat the applicant has agreed to use reclaimed water to offset at least 30 percent of its water use
    • Sustainable by design: Next-generation datacenters consume zero water for coolingMicrosoft · Primary · companyStarting August 2024, all new Microsoft datacenter designs began using this next-generation cooling technology, as we work to make zero-water evaporation the primary cooling method across our owned portfolio.Once the system is filled during construction, it will continually circulate water between the servers and chillers to dissipate heat without requiring a fresh water supply.Although our current fleet will still use a mix of air-cooled and water-cooled systems
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025Ecolab · Primary · filingOn December 16, 2025, we acquired Ovivo’s electronics business (“Ovivo Electronics”) for total consideration of $1.6 billion in cash.Global high-tech reported strong double-digit sales growth driven by data centers and microelectronics.Light & Heavy provides water treatment products and technology programs for cooling water, ultra-pure water, wastewater, boiler water and process water applications.
    • ChemTreat Joins Dow's Coolant Care Network as Strategic National Provider for AI Data Center Cooling (copy hosted by WOWK 13 News)ChemTreat · Primary · companyChemTreat has been selected as the only preferred service provider in Virginia and a strategic service provider nationally for Dow's newly launched Coolant Care Network."The data center industry is under enormous pressure to scale liquid cooling environments to meet AI-driven workload demands," says Ashour Khamis, President of ChemTreat.
    • Veolia positions for growth in clean tech for data centers and chip production with €1 billion annual revenue goal by 2030Veolia · Primary · companyVeolia announces an ambitious plan to accelerate its footprint in the data centers industry and microelectronics, targeting over €1 billion in annual revenue from these two markets by 2030.Micron (United States, water and hazardous waste, Singapore), Samsung (United States, hazardous waste), Intel (United States, and Ireland water and hazardous waste)Google (United States & Europe, water), AWS (United States, water and commissioning)
    • Financial Supplemental Data for the Fiscal Year Ended March 31, 2025 (filed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange)Kurita · Primary · exchangeService Business Sales Ratio (電子/Electronics Industry) 73.3% 71.5% 69.6% 66.4% 54.8% 55.6% 58.3% 59.2% 58.5% 62.7% 63.5% 63.8%
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025Veralto · Primary · filingChemTreat associates work alongside customers across many industries to understand their water challenges and tailor chemical treatment plans and dosing protocols to help optimize customers’ water usage and maximize reuse
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025Xylem · Primary · filingOur Water Solutions and Services segment provides tailored services and solutions, in collaboration with customers, including on‑demand water, outsourced water, recycle/reuse, specialty dewatering and emergency response service alternativesOur Water Solutions and Services segment reaches customers across industrial vertical markets, such as life sciences, microelectronics, food and beverage, chemical processing and power generation, and various municipalities.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025DuPont · Primary · filingIts product suite includes AMBERLITE™ ion exchange resins, FILMTEC™ reverse osmosis and nanofiltration elements and INGE™ and ITEGRATEC™ ultrafiltration modules.
    • Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026DuPont · Primary · filingOrganic sales growth in Healthcare & Water Technologies was driven by broad-based volume growth led by personal protection and biopharma in Healthcare Technologies and continued strength in industrial water and semiconductor markets within Water Technologies
  11. 11Factories come home, slowly, run by robotsSubsidies and tariffs brought factories home; robots run the new lines, but building has cooledROKFASTMSMLECO
    How life looks

    A new factory opens an hour from your town. It employs fewer people than the old one did, and more of them are technicians who run and fix robots.

    But fewer of these plants are breaking ground than two years ago. Most of the goods you buy are still made abroad, often in factories more automated than the new one near you.

    The chain
    1. FactCompanies that move production home mostly cite subsidies, nearness to customers and, lately, tariffs; cheaper automation ranks far lower. Reshoring InitiativeRockwell Automation
    2. FactUS factory building tripled from 2019 to a 2024 peak, but has fallen since and is 19% below a year ago. St. Louis Fed (FRED)US Census BureauReshoring Initiative
    3. Our readThe plants that are built and refitted lean on robots, so US automation spending is growing again even as building cools.
      What it rests on
      • US factories installed 38,400 industrial robots in 2025, 12% more than in 2024, making the US the second-largest market. IFR
      • Rockwell Automation's sales rose to $2,313 million in the June 2026 quarter from $2,144 million a year earlier. Rockwell Automation
      • The robot industry body expects reshoring policy and labour scarcity to support US robot demand over the long run. IFR
      What cuts against it
      • Rockwell's yearly sales fell from $9,058 million in fiscal 2023 to $8,342 million in fiscal 2025, during the factory-building peak. Rockwell Automation
      • Lincoln Electric's automation sales fell two years running, to $870 million in 2025. Lincoln Electric
      • US robot installations in metal and machinery plants fell 15% in 2025. IFR

      Where we looked: Rockwell's 10-K and 10-Q sales tables, Lincoln Electric's product-line revenue, and IFR's 2026 US release by customer industry.

    4. Our readRobots do not close the cost gap on their own, because factories abroad, above all in China, automate even faster.
      What it rests on
      • China installed 354,000 industrial robots in 2025, almost three in five worldwide, against 38,400 in the US. IFRIFR
      • The Reshoring Initiative calls automation critical to reshoring but not a panacea, as US productivity growth has stalled while China's has not. Reshoring Initiative
      • US imports rose 4.4% in the first eight months of 2026 against the same period of 2025, despite tariffs. US Census Bureau and BEA
      What cuts against it
      • Chinese industry automates partly because its own workforce is shrinking, which raises its labour costs too. IFR

      Where we looked: IFR's 2026 China and US releases, the Census trade release for August 2026, and the Reshoring Initiative's policy section.

    5. Our readEvery plant that runs, new or old, buys tools, fasteners and spare parts each working day, so suppliers follow factory activity.
      What it rests on
      • About 71% to 76% of Fastenal's customers are manufacturers. Fastenal
      • Manufacturers were 67% of MSC Industrial's sales in its fiscal 2025. MSC Industrial
      • US manufacturing employment is up 72,000 since a low in December 2025. Bureau of Labor Statistics
      • US manufacturing purchasing-manager readings reached a four-year high in the June 2026 quarter, Rockwell reports. Rockwell Automation
      What cuts against it
      • MSC Industrial reported soft demand in fiscal 2025, felt most in heavy manufacturing, its largest market. MSC Industrial

      Where we looked: Fastenal's and MSC Industrial's latest 10-Ks, the September 2026 jobs report, and Rockwell's June 2026 10-Q.

    Where the money goes
    Who could win
    • ROKRockwell AutomationNeutral The control systems that run factory lines; its own filing names new facilities and production lines, and their upgrades, as what drives its demand. Rockwell AutomationRockwell Automation
    • FASTFastenal Supplies fasteners and parts from vending machines and stock kept inside customers' plants; most of its customers are manufacturers. Fastenal
    • MSMMSC Industrial Direct Seen as a dull distributor. It sells cutting tools and maintenance supplies to machine shops, and manufacturers are two-thirds of its sales. MSC Industrial
    • LECOLincoln Electric Seen as a welding-wire company. It also builds custom automation systems for factory lines, $870 million of its 2025 sales, though that business shrank two years running. Lincoln Electric
    Who loses
    • Contractors and suppliers that staffed up for the 2022 to 2024 factory-building wave, as new building falls back.
    • Exporters to the US whose only edge is cheap labour, if tariffs last and automation keeps spreading.
    What would prove it wrong

    Factory building keeps falling toward its 2019 level, US robot installations stall while China's climb, and imports keep rising, so homecoming stays a subsidy-era blip.

    What to watch

    Census spending on new US manufacturing plants, IFR's yearly US robot installations, and Rockwell's North American sales.

    Sources (13)
    • Reshoring Initiative 2024 Annual Report, Including 1Q2025 InsightsReshoring Initiative · Primary · research2024 Top Cited Factors: 1. Government Incentives (736) 2. Skilled Workforce (357) 3. Proximity to Market (307) 4. Supply Chain Risk (261)12 Automation/technology 56 91 63%The number of firm cases citing Government Incentives as a factor in 2025* is down by 54% from 2024 while the number citing Tariffs as a factor is up 454%.ongoing uncertainty and mixed messaging have slowed many announcements and delayed action.Invest in automation. Automation is a critical element in any reshoring strategy-but not a panacea. U.S. productivity growth has stalled at 0% for 15 years, compared to China’s 6% annual improvement.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 30 September 2025Rockwell Automation · Primary · filingWe continue to manage the impact of tariffs through actions including pricing and the use of alternative sources of materials and redundant manufacturing locations.Total sales (d) $ 8,342 $ 8,264 $ 9,058Overall demand for our hardware and software products, solutions, and services is driven by: • investments in manufacturing, including new facilities or production lines, upgrades, modifications and expansions of existing facilities or production lines
    • Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States (TLMFGCONS), annual averageSt. Louis Fed (FRED) · Primary · agency2019-01-01,810092023-01-01,202151 2024-01-01,244093 2025-01-01,215365
    • Monthly Construction Spending, August 2026US Census Bureau · Primary · agencyManufacturing 170,701 170,339 171,232 173,641 177,023 211,142 0.2 -19.2
    • U.S. now Second-Largest Robotics Market, Following China (World Robotics 2026)IFR · Primary · researchThe United States installed 38,400 industrial robots in 2025, marking a 12% year-on-year increase.Uncertainty and trade tensions will be a burden in the short term, but reshoring policy and labor scarcity will provide excellent opportunities for robotics in the long run.The metal and machinery industry ranked second, with 3,000 installations, a decrease of 15%.
    • Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026Rockwell Automation · Primary · filingTotal sales (d) $ 2,313 $ 2,144 $ 6,657 $ 6,026Manufacturing PMI results also increased during the third quarter of fiscal 2026, reaching their highest level in four years.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025Lincoln Electric · Primary · filingAutomation 870,299 911,425 941,032 Net sales $ 4,233,003 $ 4,008,670 $ 4,191,636whereas automation solutions are primarily custom or build-to-print systems.Additionally, the emergence of AI-enabled robotic solutions has increased the competitive pressure on our automation business.
    • China Installs 59 Percent of World's Industrial Robots (World Robotics 2026)IFR · Primary · researchA total of 354,000 units were deployed in 2025. This equates to almost three out of every five installations worldwide, marking a new peak.The economy is suffering from a labor shortage due to demographic change. Therefore, robotic automation will be a preferred solution, making production resilient to a lack of labor resources.
    • U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026US Census Bureau and BEA · Primary · agencyYear-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $138.2 billion, or 19.9 percent, from the same period in 2025. Exports increased $267.7 billion or 11.8 percent. Imports increased $129.5 billion or 4.4 percent.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025Fastenal · Primary · filingApproximately 71% to 76% of our customers are in manufacturing end markets, which encompass heavy machinery, fabricated products, process industrieswe have invested in and developed various technologies that allow us to put physical product closer to the point of use in a customer location
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 30 August 2025MSC Industrial · Primary · filingManufacturing Customers Percent of Total Net Sales (3) 67 %This soft demand was felt more acutely in the heavy manufacturing industry, which represented 58 % of our revenues during the year ended August 30, 2025.MSC is a leading North American distributor of a broad range of metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations (“MRO”) products and services.
    • The Employment Situation - September 2026Bureau of Labor Statistics · Primary · agencyManufacturing employment was little changed in September (+9,000) but is up by 72,000 since a recent low in December 2025.
    • Company overview (SMC Europe website)SMC · Primary · companyhas granted SMC a global market share of 30%, and 65% in the Japanese market. With 12,000 basic products and over 700,000 variations, SMC offers solutions from air preparation, instrumentation, through to valves, and actuators
  12. 12The lawsuit machineAI makes court papers cheap to write, and people without lawyers are filing more firstBURTRITYLCRAI
    How life looks

    A federal judge's docket fills with complaints drafted by chatbots for people who never hired a lawyer, some citing cases that do not exist. In state courts, a few debt collectors file contract claims in bulk, and few of the people sued ever answer.

    Big lawsuits keep getting more expensive for reasons that began before AI: more lawyers in insurance claims, larger jury awards and outside money paying for cases. Lawyers on both sides research with AI tools, and courts spend more time sorting sound filings from flawed ones.

    The chain
    1. Our readAI is making court papers cheap to draft, and people without lawyers already use it to write complaints.
      What it rests on
      • In a sample of US federal complaints, the share flagged as containing AI-written text went from about zero before AI tools to over 18% in 2026. Shah and Levy (SSRN)
      • Of about 2,150 court decisions worldwide that found AI-invented material in a filing, about 1,230 involved people representing themselves. Damien Charlotin
      • The share of legal, tax and similar professionals whose organisations actively use generative AI rose from 12% in 2024 to 22% in 2025. Thomson Reuters Institute
      • Thomson Reuters says its AI tools let lawyers research and analyse large volumes of litigation documents in a fraction of the time. Thomson Reuters
      What cuts against it
      • Courts keep catching AI-invented citations: a tracker lists over 2,100 decisions finding them, a cost that falls on careless machine drafting. Damien Charlotin

      Where we looked: AI hallucination rulings, the state courts' research body, the self-representation study's own caveats, and adoption surveys of lawyers.

    2. Our readFilings are starting to rise, led by people suing without a lawyer and bulk debt claims, in simple case types rather than complex lawsuits.
      What it rests on
      • US federal civil filings rose 4% to 303,563 in the year to September 2025, and 9% excluding mass-tort (MDL) cases. US Courts
      • Self-represented cases rose from a long-run 11% of non-prisoner federal civil cases to 16.8% in 2025, concentrated in formulaic case types. Shah and Levy (SSRN)
      • In a sample of state courts, contract filings, where a few high-volume filers bring most debt cases, rose every month of 2024 against 2023. National Center for State Courts
      • Federal disability-access (ADA Title III) suits reached 5,006 in the first half of 2026, above the 4,463 average of the four years before. Seyfarth Shaw
      What cuts against it
      • US federal civil filings in 2025 were still 12% below 2021. US Courts
      • State courts took about 70 million cases of all kinds in 2024, up 4% on 2023 but 27% below 2012. National Center for State Courts
      • The state courts' research body says it has no data on whether the filers behind the rise in contract cases used AI. National Center for State Courts
      • The law firm tracking ADA suits ties their 2026 rise to new plaintiffs' firms arriving, not to AI. Seyfarth Shaw

      Where we looked: US Courts' 2025 caseload report, the National Center for State Courts' data and AI brief, and Seyfarth's ADA lawsuit counts.

    3. FactOver the past decade, US liability claim costs have been climbing because of more litigation, larger jury awards and outside money funding lawsuits. Swiss Re InstituteTravelers
    4. Our readMore and costlier disputes bring more paid work for court filing systems, legal research tools, expert witnesses and lawsuit funders.
      What it rests on
      • Tyler says higher e-filing volumes helped lift its transaction-based fees in 2025. Tyler Technologies
      • Thomson Reuters' legal segment grew 8% organically in 2025, led by Westlaw and its AI assistant CoCounsel. Thomson Reuters
      • CRA International, whose economists testify in litigation and regulatory cases, grew revenue 9.3% to a record $751.6 million in fiscal 2025. CRA InternationalCRA International
      • Omni Bridgeway signed a record A$712.2 million of new lawsuit-funding commitments in the year to June 2026. Omni Bridgeway
      What cuts against it
      • The same AI tools cut the hours each case needs: Thomson Reuters says litigation documents can be analysed in a fraction of the time. Thomson Reuters
      • Thomson Reuters reports well-funded new AI competitors, which have lowered barriers to entry in its markets. Thomson Reuters
      • Funders back complex commercial cases, not the simple filings that are growing fastest. Burford CapitalOmni Bridgeway
      • Bills to regulate litigation funding have been introduced in Congress in several sessions, though none has passed either house. Burford Capital

      Where we looked: The winners' own annual reports and risk factors, and the court data above on which kinds of case are growing.

    Where the money goes
    Who could win
    • BURBurford Capital The world's largest dedicated funder of lawsuits by portfolio size. It pays the costs of mainly complex commercial cases and is repaid only if the claim succeeds. Burford Capital
    • TRIThomson Reuters Owns Westlaw and sells CoCounsel, an AI legal research tool grounded in Westlaw's content, to law firms, courts and government. Its legal segment grew 8% organically in 2025, almost all from subscriptions. Thomson Reuters
    • TYLTyler TechnologiesNeutral Seen as a software vendor to local governments. It runs court case systems and e-filing, including Texas's statewide portal of about 46,000 filings a day, and says e-filing volume helped lift its 2025 fees. Tyler TechnologiesTexas courts (Judicial Committee on Information Technology)
    • CRAICRA International Seen as a small consulting firm. Its economists provide analysis and expert testimony in litigation and regulatory cases, and its revenue grew 9.3% to a record $751.6 million in fiscal 2025. CRA InternationalCRA International
    Who loses
    • People sued in bulk debt claims, since few of them ever answer the case.
    • Courts and judges, handling more self-represented cases that do not close any faster.
    • Businesses buying liability cover, which pay for rising legal costs through higher premiums.
    • Small businesses without legal departments.
    What would prove it wrong

    Self-represented and bulk filings level off as courts sanction machine-made errors or screen filings, and total civil filings keep drifting down as they have since 2021.

    What to watch

    US federal and state civil filing counts, the self-represented share of new federal cases, state contract and debt filings, and liability insurers' comments on legal costs.

    Sources (16)
    • Access to Justice in the Age of AI: Evidence from U.S. Federal Courts (abstract, copy hosted by beSpacific)Shah and Levy (SSRN) · Primary · researcha large and growing share of complaints are flagging positive for AI-generated text, from essentially zero in the pre-AI period to more than 18% in 2026.the number of pro se cases-or self-represented cases-is increasing dramatically, rising from a long-term steady-state average of 11% to 16.8% in FY2025. This increase is concentrated in case types characterized by formulaic document production
    • AI Hallucination Cases DatabaseDamien Charlotin · Primary · researchPro Se Litigant (1233)While seeking to be exhaustive (2149 cases identified so far), it is a work in progress and will expand as new examples emerge.
    • 2025 Generative AI in Professional Services Report: GenAI adoption is on the rise, now business strategy needs to followThomson Reuters Institute · Primary · companyOn an organization-wide level, the percentage of respondents who said their organizations were actively using GenAI nearly doubled over the past year, to 22% in 2025, compared to 12% in 2024.
    • Annual Report 2025 (Form 40-F, exhibit 99.1)Thomson Reuters · Primary · filingThese innovations enable legal professionals to perform complex, multi‑step research and analyze large volumes of litigation documents in a fraction of the time previously required.On an organic basis, revenues increased 8% driven by 9% growth in recurring revenues (97% of the Legal Professionals segment revenues) led by Westlaw, CoCounsel, and Practical Law.We have seen an increase in well-funded new competitors focused on leveraging technological advancements, particularly AI, which has reduced barriers to entry.Our Legal Professionals segment delivers professional-grade, agentic AI-enabled solutions for customers across law firms, courts and government. Our next generation AI solution, CoCounsel Legal, with Deep Research grounded in Westlaw
    • U.S. District Courts - Judicial Business 2025US Courts · Primary · agencyCivil case filings in the U.S. district courts increased 4 percent in 2025, rising by 12,667 cases to 303,563.Excluding MDL cases, combined filings of all other civil cases increased 9 percent (up 22,382 cases).Since 2021, civil case filings in the district courts have declined 12 percent (down 41,004 cases).
    • Is GenAI revolutionizing court filings?National Center for State Courts · Primary · researchContract filings in 2024 are up every month from March to December over filings for the same month in 2023.Many studies have shown that most debt cases are filed by a few high-volume filers.Critically, we have no data on whether any of these filers, whether individual or corporate plaintiffs, actually used AI to create their petitions.
    • 2026 Mid-Year Report: ADA Title III Federal Lawsuit Numbers Are ClimbingSeyfarth Shaw · Primary · researchHalfway into 2026, the ADA Title III plaintiff’s bar and their clients have filed 5,006 federal ADA Title III suits in federal court - a significant increase from the past four years which had an average of 4,463 filingsThe overall larger number of lawsuits is consistent with our observation that several relatively new plaintiffs’ firms have arrived on the ADA Title III scene.
    • Court Statistics Project - Civil CaseloadsNational Center for State Courts · Primary · research70M 2024 state court filings 4% change from 2023 -27% change from 2012
    • Swiss Re SONAR 2025: New emerging risk insights (factsheet)Swiss Re Institute · Primary · researchSocial inflation refers to the rising costs of insurance claims due to trends like increased litigation, higher jury awards, and broader liability definitions. These factors have driven 57% of the increase in US liability claims over the past decade
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Travelers · Primary · filingadverse changes in the tort environment that have continued to persist at elevated levels for a number of years (e.g., increased and more aggressive attorney involvement in insurance claims, increased litigation, expanded theories of liability, higher jury awardsexpanded theories of liability, higher jury awards, lawsuit abuse and third-party litigation finance, among others
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Tyler Technologies · Primary · filingcontributing to the growth in transaction-based fees compared to prior period are the new transaction clients, volume increases from online payments and e-filing servicesWe also provide electronic document filing solutions (“e-filing”) that simplify the filing and management of court related documents for courts and law offices.
    • Charles River Associates (CRA) reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results (8-K exhibit 99.1)CRA International · Primary · filingRevenue grew 9.3% year over year to $751.6 million while company-wide utilization was 77%.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 3 January 2026CRA International · Primary · filingWe provide consulting services to corporate clients and attorneys in a wide range of litigation and regulatory proceedings, providing high-quality research and analysis, expert testimony
    • Appendix 4E and annual report for the year ended 30 June 2026Omni Bridgeway · Primary · filingNew conditional and unconditional commitments reached a record $712.2 million across 43 new investmentsThe Group provides capital to claimants and law firms to pursue legal actions, typically in high-value commercial disputes, class actions, and international arbitrations. Returns are contingent on successful resolution - whether by settlement, judgment or award.
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Burford Capital · Primary · filingIt is difficult to predict the outcome of litigation, particularly complex commercial litigation of the type we finance.in the United States, legislation has been introduced in the US Congress in multiple sessions that would require various types of regulation of litigation finance. Such legislation has never passed either house of CongressWe typically provide capital to our counterparties on a non-recourse basis and receive a return only upon the successful conclusion of a claim.Burford is the world’s largest dedicated provider of capital, based on portfolio size, against the underlying value of litigation and legal assets
    • eFileTexas Status Update, JCIT Meeting, May 17, 2024Texas courts (Judicial Committee on Information Technology) · Primary · agencyAvg ~46K filings and ~$1.3M fees processed dailyPOWERED BY TYLER TECHNOLOGIES
  13. 13AI finds drugs; trials stay the bottleneckAI is speeding up drug discovery, but the volume has to pass through trials and factoriesMEDPICLRWSTSTVNVEEV
    How life looks

    Drug companies talk about medicines a computer helped design, and a few are already in late-stage trials. Your doctor still enrols patients in studies the old way, and each drug still takes years to test.

    So far the flood is a trickle: the number of new trials and of drugs in development has been roughly flat. What has changed is that the AI-designed drugs that reach people have passed their first safety trials more often.

    The chain
    1. Our readAI shortens the search for a drug candidate, and AI-designed drugs have so far passed first human trials more often than others.
      What it rests on
      • Insilico, an AI drug developer, says it now picks a candidate in roughly 12 to 18 months, against 2.5 to 4 years the usual way. Insilico Medicine
      • In IQVIA's count, 75% of AI-enabled programmes at smaller drug developers passed Phase I over three years, well ahead of comparable programmes. IQVIA Institute
      • The FDA now accepts computer models and lab-grown tissue in place of some animal tests before human trials begin. FDA
      What cuts against it
      • AI-designed drugs do no better than others in Phase II, and too few have reached Phase III to judge. IQVIA Institute
      • Across the whole industry, success rates were unchanged; the AI advantage shows only among smaller developers, on a small sample. IQVIA Institute
      • Recursion, an AI drug developer, dropped three clinical programmes in 2025. Recursion

      Where we looked: IQVIA's 2026 R&D report and its notes on AI success rates, Recursion's 2025 annual report, and the FDA's animal-testing announcement.

    2. FactSo far that has not meant more trials: trial starts dipped slightly in 2025, and the number of drugs in development has been roughly flat. IQVIA InstituteSCI Chemistry & Industry
    3. Our readIf AI-designed drugs keep failing less often early, more of them reach the larger, costlier later trials and then need factory-scale production.
      What it rests on
      • AI-enabled programmes at smaller developers passed Phase I at 75%, ahead of comparable programmes. IQVIA Institute
      • Clinical development is taking longer end to end, so trials remain the slow and costly stage. IQVIA Institute
      • Samsung Biologics' four Korean plants all ran at full utilisation in 2025. Samsung Biologics
      What cuts against it
      • AI-designed drugs pass Phase II no more often than others, so the later-stage gain is not yet shown. IQVIA Institute
      • Trial starts dipped slightly in 2025, and the global count of drugs in development fell to 22,940 at the start of 2026. IQVIA InstituteSCI Chemistry & Industry

      Where we looked: IQVIA's 2026 report on trial starts, timelines and AI success rates, Citeline's pipeline count as reported by SCI, and contract manufacturers' 2025 results.

    4. FactTrial runners and contract drug makers are already growing on today's demand; at Stevanato, weight-loss drugs alone are about a fifth of sales. MedpaceLonzaStevanato Group
    Where the money goes
    Who could win
    • MEDPMedpaceNeutral Runs clinical trials, and 82% of its 2025 revenue came from small drug developers, the group where AI-designed drugs have done best so far. New business rose 28% in mid-2026. MedpaceMedpaceIQVIA Institute
    • ICLRICON One of the largest trial runners for drug makers of every size. Its 2025 revenue was flat at $8.25 billion, and it restated two earlier years' revenue lower. ICON
    • WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services Makes the stoppers, seals and delivery parts injectable drugs need, sold mainly to biologic and other drug makers, whoever discovered the drug. West Pharmaceutical Services
    • STVNStevanato Group Seen as an Italian glass maker. It makes the syringes, cartridges and vials injectable drugs are filled into; its premium lines were 46% of 2025 sales, and changing supplier means fresh regulatory work. Stevanato Group
    • VEEVVeeva Systems Seen as sales software for drug makers. Over half its revenue now comes from the software trials, regulatory and quality work run on, such as trial data capture, so more trials put more of it to work. Veeva Systems
    Who loses
    • Animal-testing labs, as regulators accept computer models and lab-grown tissue in place of some animal studies.
    • Drug discovery outsourcing firms whose chemistry and screening work AI design tools replace.
    What would prove it wrong

    AI-designed drugs fail in Phase II and III as often as others, and trial starts and the drug pipeline stay flat, so faster discovery never becomes more trial and factory work.

    What to watch

    IQVIA's yearly count of trial starts and AI-programme success rates, the first Phase III results for an AI-designed drug, and new-business bookings at Medpace and ICON.

    Sources (14)
    • Insilico Medicine Launches the Industry's First Drug Discovery and Development (DDD) Benchmark as a Service, to Evaluate Frontier AI and Foundation Models on Real-World ScienceInsilico Medicine · Primary · companycompressed the timeline to PCC nomination to roughly 12 to 18 months, compared with the 2.5 to 4-plus years typical of traditional drug discovery.
    • IQVIA Institute's Global R&D Trends 2026 Report Finds Credible Signal on AI-Enabled ProgramsIQVIA Institute · Primary · researchFor the most recent three-year window, the Phase I success rate for AI-enabled emerging biopharma programs was 75%. That is a substantial advantage over comparable non-AI-enabled programsInstead, the data shows that Phase II success rates for the AI-enabled cohort track are on par with their non-AI-enabled peers. Phase III transitions are not yet numerous enough to analyze meaningfully.Second, while the signal is clear within emerging biopharma, industry-wide success rates are unchanged from the prior year. The improvement is visible in a segment, not yet in the whole.
    • FDA Announces Plan to Phase Out Animal Testing Requirement for Monoclonal Antibodies and Other DrugsFDA · Primary · agencyThe FDA’s animal testing requirement will be reduced, refined, or potentially replaced using a range of approaches, including AI-based computational models of toxicity and cell lines and organoid toxicity testing in a laboratory setting
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025Recursion · Primary · filingAs part of this prioritization, the clinical programs REC-2282 for NF2, REC-994 for CCM, and REC-3964 for C. difficile were discontinued and/or partnering opportunities are being pursued.
    • Global R&D Trends 2026IQVIA Institute · Primary · researchIn absolute terms, most therapeutic areas experienced small declines in trial starts between 2024 and 2025, reflecting global Phase I trends.Although end-to-end clinical development timelines have increased, reversing the improvements of recent years, emerging developments in artificial intelligence-enabled discovery and development offer a tantalizing glimpse of a future in which reduced pipeline attrition dramatically improves R&D productivity.
    • Pharma R&D: What's in the pipeline?SCI Chemistry & Industry · ReportingThe total number of drugs in the global R&D pipeline stands at 22,940, according to a recent analysis by Citeline, slightly lower than in 2025.He notes that because of this, the overall pipeline size has probably been fairly flat over the past few years.
    • Samsung Biologics reports fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 financial resultsSamsung Biologics · Primary · companyThe performance was mainly driven by full utilization across Plants 1 through 3, together with Plant 4, which also reached full utilization in the third quarter of 2025.The company secured a KRW 1.1 trillion manufacturing agreement with a European pharmaceutical company in the fourth quarter of 2025, contributing to a cumulative contract value exceeding USD 21 billion.
    • Medpace Holdings, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Exhibit 99.1)Medpace · Primary · filingNet new business awards were $795.7 million in the second quarter of 2026, representing an increase of 28.2% from net new business awards of $620.5 million for the comparable prior-year period
    • Full-Year Report 2025 (copy hosted by SGX)Lonza · Primary · companydriven by sustained demand for its large-, mid-, and small-scale assets, supported by maturing growth projects and the Vacaville site acquisition, which generated around CHF 0.6 billion sales.In Integrated Biologics, Lonza leverages its experience in drug approvals to accelerate and de-risk the path to market with best-in-class, end-to-end offerings - from clinical development to drug substance and drug product manufacturing.
    • Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025Stevanato Group · Primary · filingIn 2025, the Group estimates that it generated revenue from GLP1s in the range of 19% to 20% of total Company revenue.For the year ended December 31, 2025, revenue from high-value solutions increased to 46.0% of our total revenue, compared with 38.3% for the year ended December 31, 2024, resulting primarily from increased customer demand for high performance syringesit is often the case that drug product containment and delivery arrangements cannot be changed without amending the regulatory filing with the relevant agency. High switching costs and significant time delays are meaningful deterrents to a change in suppliers
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025Medpace · Primary · filingWe are one of the world’s leading clinical contract research organizations, or CROs, by revenue, solely focused on providing scientifically-driven outsourced clinical development services to the biotechnology, pharmaceutical and medical device industries.for the year ended December 31, 2025, 82% and 13% of our net revenue was derived from small biopharmaceutical companies and mid-sized biopharmaceutical companies, respectively, which may have limited access to capital.
    • Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025ICON · Primary · filingICON is a global provider of outsourced development and commercialization services to pharmaceutical, biotechnology, medical device, and government and public health organizations.Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025 increased by $62.4 million, or 0.8%, to $8,251.3 million, compared to $8,189.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2024.A $92.7 million overstatement of revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024 and a $65.3 million overstatement of revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 January 2026Veeva Systems · Primary · filingVeeva Clinical Data Management helps sponsors and CROs design and run trials with tools to speed the build process and eliminate manual steps. This includes Veeva EDC for electronic data captureIn our fiscal year ended January 31, 2026, we derived approximately 47% and 53% of our subscription revenues and 45% and 55% of our total revenues from our Commercial Solutions and R&D and Quality Solutions, respectively.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025West Pharmaceutical Services · Primary · filingWe are a leading global manufacturer in the design and production of technologically advanced, high-quality, integrated containment and delivery systems for injectable drugs and healthcare products.Our Proprietary Products reportable segment offers elastomers & primary containment, drug delivery devices, integrated systems, and analytical lab services, primarily to biologic, generic, and pharmaceutical drug customers.
  14. 14Cheap drones, new armiesCheap autonomous drones change how wars are fought, and defence budgets followAVAVKTOSONDSAMPXRCAT
    How life looks

    The news from every conflict is about drones: cheap, numerous and increasingly flying themselves. Airports, stadiums and power plants install systems to detect and stop them.

    Governments that once bought a few expensive platforms now buy thousands of cheap ones. Police and utilities use drones for inspection and response every day.

    The chain
    1. Our readAI is starting to let cheap drones guide themselves onto targets and keep working when jammed, so fewer people can run more of them.
      What it rests on
      • Ukrainian FPV drones now carry autonomous terminal guidance, which lets them finish an attack despite jamming. RUSI
      • US Special Operations Command is building a system for one operator to control and manage several drones at once. Pentagon comptroller
      • The FY2027 US request puts $4.5 billion into making autonomous systems operate together at scale, which is being funded rather than proven. Pentagon comptroller
      • Replicator set out to field attritable autonomous systems in the multiple thousands. Defense Innovation Unit
      What cuts against it
      • Radio-piloted FPVs are still hard to mass in one place because they interfere with each other's guidance. RUSI

      Where we looked: RUSI's tactical study of Ukraine, the 2026 and 2027 US budget books, and the Replicator programme's own release.

    2. FactIn Ukraine, cheap drones bought by the million now do most of the damage to enemy equipment, though most miss and they work best alongside artillery. RUSIUkraine Ministry of Defence
    3. Our readDefence budgets shift toward large numbers of cheap, autonomous systems and defences against them.
      What it rests on
      • The US FY2027 request asks $54.0 billion for autonomous and remotely operated systems, against $13.4 billion requested for FY2026. Pentagon comptrollerPentagon comptroller
      • It asks $20.6 billion for counter-drone systems, 424% more than the $3.9 billion enacted for FY2026. Pentagon comptroller
      • A July 2025 Pentagon memo classes small drones as consumable, like munitions, and orders cheap expendable drones for every squad by end-2026. US Secretary of Defense
      • Ukraine went from buying thousands of drones in 2023 to over 1.5 million in 2024. Ukraine Ministry of Defence
      What cuts against it
      • Expensive platforms still grow: the same US request raises the F-47 fighter by $3.1 billion to $9 billion. Pentagon comptroller

      Where we looked: The 2027 US budget request's aircraft and shipbuilding lines, and the Pentagon's July 2025 drone memo.

    4. FactSmall and new suppliers win drone and counter-drone contracts, and the Pentagon is changing its buying rules to let more of them in. Red CatUS Secretary of DefensePentagon comptroller
    Where the money goes
    Who could win
    • AVAVAeroVironmentNeutral Makes the Switchblade loitering munition and small military drones, and also sells systems that detect and stop drones. AeroVironment
    • KTOSKratos DefenseNeutral The main maker of jet target drones for the US Air Force, Navy and Army, and of the Valkyrie, a low-cost uncrewed jet built to fly beside crewed fighters. Kratos Defense
    • ONDSOndas HoldingsUnattractive Autonomous drone systems for security and counter-drone work. Ondas
    • AMPXAmprius Technologies Seen as an electric-vehicle battery start-up. Its high-energy cells are sold mainly for drones, where flight time is the limit, and in 2026 it won a $24 million order from a European drone maker. AmpriusAmprius
    • RCATRed Cat Holdings Seen as a tiny, loss-making drone stock. Its Teal Black Widow won the US Army's Short Range Reconnaissance programme, the small scouting drone carried by soldiers; 2025 revenue was $40.7 million. Red Cat
    Who loses
    • Programmes built on a small number of very expensive platforms.
    What would prove it wrong

    Defence budgets stay locked into large traditional programmes, or cheap counter-drone defences make drones far less useful.

    What to watch

    The share of defence budgets going to uncrewed and counter-drone systems, and order sizes at AeroVironment and Kratos.

    Sources (13)
    • Tactical Developments During the Third Year of the Russo-Ukrainian WarRUSI · Primary · researchFPVs have been improved with autonomous terminal guidance and wire spools, which render them impervious to electronic disruption.With FPVs that are remotely piloted by radio frequency, it is also difficult to concentrate multiple drones in time and space because they can interfere with one another’s guidance systems.Despite these limitations, tactical UAVs currently account for 60-70% of damaged and destroyed Russian systems.They emphasised that UAVs alone were inadequate and that they were most effective when used in combination with artillery.Between 60 and 80% of Ukrainian FPVs fail to reach their target, depending on the part of the front and the skill of the operators.
    • Defense Budget Overview, Fiscal Year 2026 Budget RequestPentagon comptroller · Primary · agencythe USSOCOM is building on its Adaptive Airborne Enterprise, designed to enable multi-platform control and management of multiple Unmanned Aerial Systems and payloads$13.4 billion for autonomous and remotely operated systems across air, land, and above and below the sea
    • Overview - FY 2027 Department of War BudgetPentagon comptroller · Primary · agency$4.5 billion to develop an environment where autonomous systems can operate collaboratively at scale$54.0 billion for autonomous and remotely operated systems across air, land, and above and below the sea, including $39.2 billion associated with the Drone Dominance mandatory funding requestThe FY 2027 President’s Budget includes $20.6 billion, an increase of $16.6 billion, or 424 percent over the FY 2026 enacted level of $3.9 billioninvesting $9 billion, a $3.1 billion increase, in the number one priority, the F-47 family of systems.allowing for acquisition approaches for portfolios of capabilities that broaden opportunities for new entrants.$16.9 billion to procure unmanned systems across air, surface, subsurface, and ground domains from within the industrial base capacitythe Service is revolutionizing the force structure with a massive investment in the Collaborative Combat Aircraft program ($2.7 billion) funding the first increment while beginning development on the second.
    • Implementing the Department of Defense Replicator Initiative to Accelerate All-Domain Attritable Autonomous Systems To Warfighters at Speed and ScaleDefense Innovation Unit · Primary · agencyReplicator focuses on improving the United States’ ability to counter the People’s Republic of China’s military mass by fielding attritable autonomous systems in multiple thousands across multiple domains.
    • Glib Kanievskyi: In 2025, the Ministry of Defence plans to procure 4.5 million FPV dronesUkraine Ministry of Defence · Primary · agencyIn 2023, the Ministry of Defence procured thousands of drones, whereas by the end of 2024, we, together with the State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine, procured over 1.5 million drones
    • Memorandum: Unleashing U.S. Military Drone Dominance (copy hosted by Fox News)US Secretary of Defense · Primary · agencySmall UAS resemble munitions more than high-end airplanes. They should be cheap, rapidly replaceable, and categorized as consumable.By the end of 2026, every squad will have low-cost, expendable drones, prioritizing Indo-Pacific combat unitsFirst, we will bolster the nascent U.S. drone manufacturing base by approving hundreds of American products for purchase by our military.
    • Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025Red Cat · Primary · filingIn November 2024, Teal was selected as a winner of the U.S. Army’s Short Range Reconnaissance (SRR) Program of Record.Consolidated revenues totaled $40.7 million during the year ended December 31, 2025
    • Appendix 4E and annual financial report, year ended 31 December 2025DroneShield · Primary · filingGroup revenue increased to $216.5 million, up from $57.5 million in FY2024, representing growth of 276% year‑on‑year
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 28 December 2025Kratos Defense · Primary · filingcombines Northrop Grumman’s uncrewed capabilities and autonomous leadership with Kratos’ Valkyrie uncrewed aerial system to work alongside crewed fighters to provide air dominance in high-threat environments.Kratos is the primary provider of jet target drone systems to the USN, with the BQM-177, the USAF with the BQM-167, and the U.S. Army with the MQM-178.have placed a premium on rapidly developing and fielding low-cost, high-technology hardware, systems and solutions, that can be fielded in quantities, i.e. affordable mass, to address National Security requirements.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 30 April 2026AeroVironment · Primary · filingPrecision Strike: Our Switchblade family includes the Switchblade 300, Switchblade 400 and Switchblade 600, which are LMS that provide portable, low-signature, precision strike capabilities against static or mobile targetsWe develop and deploy autonomous systems, precision strike systems, counter-UAS technologies, space-based platforms, directed energy systems, and cyber and electronic warfare capabilities.
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025Ondas · Primary · filingOAS markets Iron Drone Raider™, a fully autonomous interceptor drone designed to neutralize small hostile drones threatening critical assets, facilities, and operations.Through Airobotics, OAS provides the Optimus System™, a fully autonomous aerial platform designed for persistent, repeatable missions
    • Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025Amprius · Primary · filingCurrently, our batteries are primarily used for existing and emerging aviation applications, including unmanned aerial systems or “UAS”, such as drones and high-altitude pseudo satellites or “HAPS”.
    • Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: second-quarter 2026 results releaseAmprius · Primary · filingAwarded a $24.0 million order from a major European drone developer for SiCore cylindrical cells