← All thesesOSCRNeutralMedium convictionSunday 18 October 2026עברית

Oscar Health

An American health insurer selling plans to people who buy their own cover, almost all of it paid for with federal tax credits.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑

Revenue rose 27.5% in 2025 and 61.2% in the first half of 2026 on share gains, but it all rides one subsidised market.

Business quality2/4 ↑

Low running cost wins share on price, but members re-shop yearly and 2025 showed rivals' members can erase the margin.

Financial position3/4 ↑

Excess statutory capital of $994M and no debt due before 2030, but growth leans on reinsurers for about $1.1B of capital.

Execution record2/4 ↑

Risk-adjustment estimates rose three times in 2025 and the year lost money; 2026 is ahead of plan but is one year.

Per share capture2/4 →

Shares rose 18.3% in a year after notes were swapped for stock, and the 2030 notes convert below today's price.

Potential2/4 →

The 2029 plan needs a margin never earned, share gains, and an employer market of 2.5M lives that is 0.5M today.

Risk profile2/4 →

Federal rules, court rulings on eligibility checks and a yearly payment set by CMS can each move profit in one step.

Valuation3/4 ↓

About 21 times taxed 2026 profit pays for this year's margin holding; at 8 times the 2029 target, the plan is not assumed.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Central facts are filed or CMS's, but the 2026 payment and the employer line rest on management's estimates.

The bet · 2-3 years
Safe, little upside0.9×

If it works 0.9× · if it fails you keep about 76%.

The Verdict

We rate Oscar Health Neutral. The business is mixed: it runs cheaper than its rivals and took a large share of a shrinking market in 2026, but a federal scheme that moves money to insurers with sicker members took about a fifth of its premiums and wiped out 2025's profit. The price is fair: about 21 times this year's forecast profit, for a margin the company has earned once. As a bet on employers paying for workers' own plans it is priced for success: the line is too small to lift the price much even if it works. The scheme's 2026 answer, due next June, decides the view.

The long caseEmployers may start paying for individual plans instead of group cover, and Oscar has built the platform to sell them.

The evidence under this - 7 claims
C08facthigh confidence
Risk-adjustment transfers paid out were $1,526.4M against $10,292.1M of direct premium in 2024 (14.8%), $2,596.8M against $14,031.3M in 2025 (18.5%), and $2,314.3M against $11,696.7M in the first half of 2026 (19.8%).
against this

The first-half figure includes about $160M of favourable 2025 true-up (C11); on current-year terms an analyst on the Q2 call estimated about 17.9%.

historical · FY2024 to H1 2026written 2026-10-18
C07facthigh confidence
The 10-K says that in Q2 and Q3 2025 third-party reports showed the market's average risk scores significantly higher than expected, so Oscar raised the risk-adjustment payment it owed, and in Q4 a report showed its own members' relative scores lower than expected, so it raised it again. Centene's 10-K describes the same 2025 data from an independent actuarial firm cutting its own expected risk-adjustment revenue.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-18
C21inferencemedium confidence
Much of Oscar's 2026 growth is share taken while listed rivals priced up or pulled back, at prices that also restored its own margin.
against this
  • Share won on price in a market where members re-shop every year can be lost the same way, and Centene still has about twice Oscar's members (C19).
  • Part of the gain may be members the eligibility checks will remove (C22).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C31estimatemedium confidence
Taxed and counted the way management counts its 2029 target, the 2026 guide gives $1.31 to $1.77 of profit a share, so $31.89 is 18.0 to 24.3 times 2026's profit, 20.7 at the midpoint, and 8.0 times the 2029 target of $4.00.
against this

Oscar's tax losses carried forward kept its reported tax to $38.9M over the last four quarters, so reported profit per share will be higher than this taxed figure for some years.

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C32inferencemedium confidence
2026 will be Oscar's most profitable year by a wide margin; over 2024 to 2026 its operating margin averages about 0.3%, so the price is paying for a margin the company has earned once.
against this

2024 and 2025 were years of a market made sicker by Medicaid redeterminations and then a reset, which management argues will not recur (C52).

current state · 2026-09-16written 2026-10-18
C39management claimlow confidence
At Investor Day Oscar put employer-funded individual cover, which it now calls CHOICE, at under 0.2 million lives in 2023, 0.5 million or more in 2026 and 2.5 million or more by 2029. It says its own CHOICE membership about doubled in the year to February 2026, targets about three times its CHOICE market share and 10% to 15% of CHOICE in its counties by 2029, and reports about 85% retention for CHOICE members against about 75% for individual members.
against this

Oscar discloses no CHOICE member count or revenue, and its 2029 market figure rests on its own analysis of vendor data (C43).

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C43estimatelow confidence
Oscar's CHOICE members are probably in the tens of thousands, under 1% of its 2.96 million members, which is why the line is early.
against this

The share target is stated for its counties, not nationally, so the national figure could be lower or higher; Oscar has never stated the count.

current state · 2026-09-16written 2026-10-18
01

The company

Americans who get no health cover through work or the government can buy their own plan on the exchanges the Affordable Care Act set up. Oscar sells those plans: 2,042,449 members in 18 states at the end of 2025, more than half of them in Florida.

Almost every customer pays with help, since about 97% of 2025 premiums carried a federal tax credit. Its members skew younger and healthier than the market, and it runs on its own technology, with running costs down to 14.2% of revenue in Q2 2026.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Oscar sells individual and family health plans on the ACA exchanges. At the end of 2025 it had 2,042,449 members in 18 states: Florida 1,179,934, Texas 358,910 and Georgia 218,746. It had about 2,305 employees, and the 10-K names Florida, Texas and Georgia as its largest concentrations of revenue.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C10management claimmedium confidence
The chief financial officer says Oscar is a risk-adjustment payer because its members skew younger, healthier and more urban than the market, more so as it grows, and that risk adjustment ran about 20% of direct premium in the first half of 2026, consistent with the full-year expectation.
against this

The same estimate rose three times in 2025 on third-party data (C07); the final figure for 2026 comes only in CMS's June 2027 report.

current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-18
C25facthigh confidence
The 10-K says about 97% of its members' 2025 direct premiums were subsidised by federal tax credits, 92% in 2024; the enhanced credits expired at the end of 2025, and Congress could act in 2026 to restore them.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C46facthigh confidence
Running costs fell to 14.2% of revenue in Q2 2026, which the CFO called the lowest in the company's history, from 19.1% in 2024 and 17.5% in 2025. Revenue per employee rose from about $0.70M in 2021 to $5.08M in 2025 while headcount fell 4.0% in 2025 to 2,305.
against this

Part of the fall is a lower risk-adjustment share of premium and fixed costs spread over more members, both of which the CFO named; Oscar also stopped small-group plans.

historical · FY2021 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-18

How it makes money

Members, helped by their tax credits, pay a monthly premium, and Oscar keeps what is left after paying their doctors and hospitals and its own running costs. In 2025 premium was $11.47B of $11.70B of revenue; most of the rest was interest on the cash it holds. Because its members are healthier than average, Oscar must hand part of its premium to insurers with sicker members: about a fifth of it in the first half of 2026.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C53facthigh confidence
Of 2025's $11,701.4M of revenue, premium was $11,469.9M, investment income $202.9M and other revenues $28.6M.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-18
C08facthigh confidence
Risk-adjustment transfers paid out were $1,526.4M against $10,292.1M of direct premium in 2024 (14.8%), $2,596.8M against $14,031.3M in 2025 (18.5%), and $2,314.3M against $11,696.7M in the first half of 2026 (19.8%).
against this

The first-half figure includes about $160M of favourable 2025 true-up (C11); on current-year terms an analyst on the Q2 call estimated about 17.9%.

historical · FY2024 to H1 2026written 2026-10-18
C10management claimmedium confidence
The chief financial officer says Oscar is a risk-adjustment payer because its members skew younger, healthier and more urban than the market, more so as it grows, and that risk adjustment ran about 20% of direct premium in the first half of 2026, consistent with the full-year expectation.
against this

The same estimate rose three times in 2025 on third-party data (C07); the final figure for 2026 comes only in CMS's June 2027 report.

current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-18
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (fiscal year 2025)How it earns it
Premium98.0%Health insurance premiums from members and the federal tax credit, after the risk-adjustment payment to other insurers and reinsurance.
Investment income1.7%Interest on the cash and investments held against claims and amounts owed to CMS.
Other revenues0.2%Fees from the +Oscar software, the Lucie platform and the brokerage bought in 2025.

Who runs it

Mark Bertolini, who ran Aetna from 2010 to 2018, has been chief executive since April 2023, and the company made its first profit under him. Insiders and Thrive Capital control the votes: directors and officers hold 21.8% of the shares but 77.2% of the votes.

Most of the yearly bonus rides on operating margin, premiums and running costs. Bertolini bought 1,000,000 shares from the company in April 2026 and sold about 2.45M under a plan in June; co-founder Mario Schlosser sold 750,000 outside one in August.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C45facthigh confidence
Mark Bertolini has been chief executive since April 2023 after running Aetna from 2010 to 2018; Scott Blackley has been CFO since August 2023, and was Capital One's CFO from 2016 to 2021; co-founder Mario Schlosser ran Oscar from 2012 to April 2023 and is now President of Technology; Janet Liang, formerly of Kaiser Permanente, has run the insurance business since February 2025.
current state · 2026-04-22written 2026-10-18
C06facthigh confidence
The 10-K says 2024 was the first year since Oscar began in 2012 that it made a net profit, that it did not make one in 2025 and may not be able to do so again, and that its accumulated deficit was $3,294.4M at the end of 2025.
historical · 2012 to 2025written 2026-10-18
C33facthigh confidence
The 2026 proxy shows Thrive Capital with 14.2% of the economic interest and 68.0% of the votes, the chief executive owning 11,925,092 shares (4.5%), co-founder Mario Schlosser's Class B shares carrying 13.4% of the votes, and directors and officers together 21.8% of the economics and 77.2% of the votes.
current state · 2026-04-10written 2026-10-18
C34facthigh confidence
The proxy says the annual bonus is 80% financial measures, operating margin, direct and assumed premiums and the direct running-cost ratio, and 20% operational; 2025 paid 91% of target. 2025 share awards vest on cumulative adjusted profit with a relative-return modifier; 2026 awards vest on relative shareholder return alone, capped if absolute return is negative.
current state · 2026-04-22written 2026-10-18
C35facthigh confidence
On 6 April 2026 the chief executive bought 1,000,000 shares at $11.92 from the company in a private placement, reported on Form 4 beside the vesting of 5,733,334 performance shares and 1,000,001 withheld for tax.
against this

He sold about 2.45M shares at $28 to $30 in late June 2026 under a trading plan adopted on 10 November 2025 (C36).

historical · 2026-04-06written 2026-10-18
C36facthigh confidence
In the year to mid-October 2026 insiders made 59 open-market sales of 5,562,596 shares, 79.1% under 10b5-1 plans. The discretionary ones: Mario Schlosser sold 600,000 at $30.34 and 150,000 at $30.79 on 27 and 28 August after exercising options at $9.75, and the CFO 18,750 at $31.74 on 18 August. The chief executive's 2.45M June sales were under a plan.
against this

The insider base rate put the Q3 2026 bought-to-sold ratio at 0.78 against a 0.74 median, ordinary for this company, and most acquisitions are vesting rather than purchases.

historical · year to 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Oscar's edge is cost. The tax credit is fixed against a benchmark plan, so a plan priced below it is cheaper for the member dollar for dollar, and members compare prices every year. Running costs of 14.2% of revenue let Oscar price low and still earn.

It worked in 2026. The exchanges shrank, by management's count about 12%, yet Oscar's members grew 46.2% and its share of the counties it serves roughly doubled to about 30%. But members won on price leave on price.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C04facthigh confidence
Oscar had 2,963,002 members at 30 June 2026 against 2,027,148 a year earlier, up 46.2%. The count includes members enrolled through an employer's ICHRA, which the 10-Q does not split out, and the chief executive said it was basically flat through Q2.
against this

The 10-Q expects 250,000 to 300,000 of these members to be removed retroactively under eligibility rules (C22), so the year-end count will be lower.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C17management claimmedium confidence
Management says total exchange enrolment is 19.2 million, down 12% from a year earlier, and that Oscar's paid members grew about 60% between 1 February 2025 and 1 February 2026 while the market fell about 13%.
against this

CMS's own snapshot counts 22,973,219 selected plans (C16); fewer pay, but the 19.2 million is management's figure rather than a CMS table read here.

current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-18
C18management claimmedium confidence
Management puts Oscar's share of the counties it serves at about 16% after the 2024 open enrolment and about 30% after 2026's, and lists competitor exits among the 2025 market changes it priced against.
against this

Nationally its 2,963,002 members are 12.9% of plan selections (C16, C04); the in-county share is the company's own calculation.

current state · 2026-09-16written 2026-10-18
C21inferencemedium confidence
Much of Oscar's 2026 growth is share taken while listed rivals priced up or pulled back, at prices that also restored its own margin.
against this
  • Share won on price in a market where members re-shop every year can be lost the same way, and Centene still has about twice Oscar's members (C19).
  • Part of the gain may be members the eligibility checks will remove (C22).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C46facthigh confidence
Running costs fell to 14.2% of revenue in Q2 2026, which the CFO called the lowest in the company's history, from 19.1% in 2024 and 17.5% in 2025. Revenue per employee rose from about $0.70M in 2021 to $5.08M in 2025 while headcount fell 4.0% in 2025 to 2,305.
against this

Part of the fall is a lower risk-adjustment share of premium and fixed costs spread over more members, both of which the CFO named; Oscar also stopped small-group plans.

historical · FY2021 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-18

The threat

Its biggest rivals are Centene, the largest exchange insurer with 5.5 million members, and the local Blue Cross plans. In Florida, Oscar's largest state, Florida Blue received $1.32B from the risk-adjustment scheme for 2025 while Oscar's Florida insurer paid $1.47B: a rival with sicker members is paid partly out of Oscar's premiums.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C19facthigh confidence
Centene's 10-K says it is the largest exchange insurer, with 5.5 million members in 29 states at the end of 2025; that 2025 independent actuarial data showed a sicker exchange pool than expected and cut its risk-adjustment revenue; and that it repriced for 2026 in states covering 95% of its exchange members. Its Commercial segment, mostly exchange plans, had $42,003M of $194,777M of 2025 revenue.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C09facthigh confidence
CMS's risk adjustment report for 2025 shows Oscar Insurance Company of Florida paying $1,466,455,725.41 in the individual market, Oscar's Texas insurer $535,020,864.77 and its Georgia insurer $270,684,882.51, while Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Florida received $1,323,888,872.22. Transfers were 11.0% of premiums across the individual market.
historical · benefit year 2025written 2026-10-18
C51facthigh confidence
The 10-K names its principal individual-market competitors only as classes: national carriers, regional carriers, Medicaid-focused insurers selling exchange plans, and local Blue Cross plans; some have greater resources and broader networks.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18

The rivals: CNC, ELV, UNH, MOH, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
CNCCentene Corporation (Ambetter Health)Priced against it: Same productOscar's ACA individual plansOn saleSame product
PrivateFlorida BluePriced against it: PrivateOscar's ACA individual plansOn salePrivate
ELVElevance Health's Blue plansPriced against it: One segment onlyOscar's ACA individual plansOn saleOne segment only
UNHGroup health plans from the large insurers, such as UnitedHealth'sPriced against it: One segment onlyOscar CHOICE and the +Oscar platformsOn saleOne segment only
MOHMolina HealthcarePriced against it: One segment only-On saleOne segment only
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

The exchanges had 22,973,219 plan selections for 2026. At the roughly $7,900 a year Oscar collects per member, that is a market of about $181B, and Oscar's 2,963,002 members are 12.9% of it. Nobody yet measures how large the part employers pay for will grow, and this count leaves it out.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C16facthigh confidence
CMS reports 22,973,219 plan selections on the exchanges for 2026, 3,382,189 of them new consumers; Florida 4,538,772, Texas 4,172,233 and Georgia 1,301,254.
current state · 2026-01-15written 2026-10-18
C47estimatemedium confidence
Oscar collects about $7,900 of direct premium per member-year, and at that price the exchange market is about $181B a year; Oscar's 2,963,002 members are 12.9% of 2026's plan selections.
against this

Not every selected plan is paid for, and Oscar's members are younger than average, so the market average premium may differ from Oscar's.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C04facthigh confidence
Oscar had 2,963,002 members at 30 June 2026 against 2,027,148 a year earlier, up 46.2%. The count includes members enrolled through an employer's ICHRA, which the 10-Q does not split out, and the chief executive said it was basically flat through Q2.
against this

The 10-Q expects 250,000 to 300,000 of these members to be removed retroactively under eligibility rules (C22), so the year-end count will be lower.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Fast

Sales grew 43% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 28% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $1.84BDec 2022: $3.96BDec 2023: $5.86BDec 2024: $9.18BDec 2025: $11.7B12 mo to Jun 2026: $15.3B$1.84B$15.3B
Is it profitable?Thin

Operating margin is 4.1%, up from −4.0% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: −30%Dec 2022: −15%Dec 2023: −4.0%Dec 2024: 0.6%Dec 2025: −3.4%12 mo to Jun 2026: 4.1%−30%4.1%
How steady is it?Swingy

Yearly sales growth has ranged from +28% to +297% over the last 5 years.

Dec 2021: +297%Dec 2022: +116%Dec 2023: +48%Dec 2024: +57%Dec 2025: +28%+297%+28%
Does it earn good returns?Strong

Each dollar put into the business earns 30% a year after tax, up from 3.7% in the year to Dec 2024.

Dec 2024: 3.7%12 mo to Jun 2026: 30%3.7%30%
Is it making cash?Strong

It turned 29% of sales into free cash, $4.38B over the last twelve months.

Dec 2021: −$208MDec 2022: $351MDec 2023: −$298MDec 2024: $950MDec 2025: $1.06B12 mo to Jun 2026: $4.38B−$208M$4.38B
Is the balance sheet safe?Net cash

It holds $8.56B of cash against $432M of debt, $8.12B more cash than it owes.

Dec 2021: $1.69BDec 2022: $2.66BDec 2023: $2.26BDec 2024: $1.85BDec 2025: $3.56B12 mo to Jun 2026: $8.12B$1.69B$8.12B
Are shares being diluted?Diluting

The share count rose 86% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 0.5% of sales.

Dec 2021: 179MDec 2022: 212MDec 2023: 222MDec 2024: 266MDec 2025: 262M12 mo to Jun 2026: 333M179M333M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-18. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$1.84B$3.96B$5.86B$9.18B$11.7B$15.3B
Sales growth+297%+116%+48%+57%+28%+43%
Profit
Operating margin−30%−15%−4.0%0.6%−3.4%4.1%
Net margin−31%−15%−4.6%0.3%−3.8%3.6%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
General and admin14%0.4%0.5%0.4%0.2%0.2%
Pay in shares4.7%2.8%2.7%1.2%0.7%0.5%
Capital spending1.4%0.7%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.3%
Cash
Cash from operations−$182M$380M−$272M$978M$1.09B$4.42B
Free cash flow−$208M$351M−$298M$950M$1.06B$4.38B
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$1.69B$2.96B$2.56B$2.15B$3.99B$8.56B
Debt$0$298M$299M$300M$430M$432M
Net cash$1.69B$2.66B$2.26B$1.85B$3.56B$8.12B
Returns and shares
Return on capital---3.7%-30%
Shares (diluted)179M212M222M266M262M333M

What growth costs

For an insurer, growth costs running expenses and broker commissions, and here growing has made each member cheaper to serve: running costs fell as a share of revenue each year while revenue rose. The swings in profit come from claims and the risk-adjustment payment, not from what growth costs.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C05facthigh confidence
2025 revenue was $11,701.4M against $9,177.6M in 2024. Profit from operations was a loss of $396.4M against a profit of $57.3M, net income a loss of $443.2M against a profit of $25.4M, the medical loss ratio 87.4% against 81.7% and running costs 17.5% of revenue against 19.1%. The operating margin was minus 3.4% against 0.6%.
historical · FY2025 and FY2024written 2026-10-18
C02facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $4,880.2M against $2,863.9M in Q2 2025. The medical loss ratio, claims as a share of premium, was 79.2% against 91.1%; running costs were 14.2% of revenue against 18.7%. Profit from operations was $388.6M against a loss of $230.5M; net income $361.8M, or $1.10 a diluted share.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-18
C46facthigh confidence
Running costs fell to 14.2% of revenue in Q2 2026, which the CFO called the lowest in the company's history, from 19.1% in 2024 and 17.5% in 2025. Revenue per employee rose from about $0.70M in 2021 to $5.08M in 2025 while headcount fell 4.0% in 2025 to 2,305.
against this

Part of the fall is a lower risk-adjustment share of premium and fixed costs spread over more members, both of which the CFO named; Oscar also stopped small-group plans.

historical · FY2021 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-18

The last report (6 Aug)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

70%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
5.0%
Growth from the quarter before
against 65.7% the quarter before that
8¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

Q2 2026 confirmed the turnaround. Claims took 79.2% of premium against 91.1% a year earlier, running costs fell to 14.2% of revenue, and profit was $1.10 a share against $0.40 expected.

Part of it came from the past. $164M of the quarter's profit was earlier years' estimates reversing, mostly 2025's risk-adjustment bill arriving smaller than feared, and the chief financial officer put the claims ratio at about 82% without it. The shares fell 11.9% that day, and the guide still implies a loss in the second half.

What it did to the thesisIt proved the price rises worked and running costs fell, which supports the case that Oscar can earn in this market. It left open what decides the view: how much of the profit was last year's estimate reversing, and what the second half costs.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $1.10 against $0.40 expected; $1.10 as filed, with no adjustments.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C02facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $4,880.2M against $2,863.9M in Q2 2025. The medical loss ratio, claims as a share of premium, was 79.2% against 91.1%; running costs were 14.2% of revenue against 18.7%. Profit from operations was $388.6M against a loss of $230.5M; net income $361.8M, or $1.10 a diluted share.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-18
C55facthigh confidence
On 6 August 2026 Oscar reported Q2 profit of $1.10 a share against $0.40 expected, and the shares fell 11.9% that session.
historical · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-18
C11management claimmedium confidence
Q2 2026 included $164M of favourable development on earlier periods, $232M in the first half, most of it about $160M from CMS's final 2025 risk-adjustment report. The chief financial officer says the Q2 medical loss ratio excluding it was about 82%.
against this

An analyst on the call computed about 85.2% for Q2 excluding the releases and the true-up; the CFO said the two would reconcile after the call.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-18
C13estimatehigh confidence
The 2026 guide implies the second half loses $292.7M to $492.7M from operations, against a loss of $463.0M in the second half of 2025, on revenue of about $9.2B to $9.5B rather than $5.8B.
against this

Second halves lose money at every ACA insurer as members meet their deductibles, and management says it has not taken full credit for favourable morbidity data (C52).

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
What management did with the money

Oscar put $425.5M into its insurers in the first half of 2026 to back growth, $300M of it into a new Florida HMO. Its debt is $410M of convertible notes due 2030. Swapping other notes for about 30.8M shares in 2025 is part of why the share count rose 18.3% in a year.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 18 purchases and 23 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C26facthigh confidence
The insurance subsidiaries held about $1.9B of statutory capital at 30 June 2026, about $994M above the minimum against $356M at the end of 2025. The parent contributed $425.5M in the half, $300M of it to a new Florida HMO. Without quota-share reinsurance they would need about $1.1B more capital.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C28facthigh confidence
Oscar owes $410M of 2.25% convertible notes due 2030, convertible at about $24.82 a share with a capped call to $37.46, and $35M of 7.25% notes due 2031 convertible at about $8.32. In November 2025 Dragoneer exchanged $250M of the 2031 notes for about 30.1M shares plus about 0.7M more as an inducement.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C29facthigh confidence
Weighted basic shares were 302.2M in Q2 2026 against 255.5M in Q2 2025, up 18.3%; diluted shares were 333.4M. Outstanding shares on the 10-Q cover were 273.4M Class A and 35.2M Class B.
historical · Q2 2025 and Q2 2026written 2026-10-18
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Fair. The price pays for this year's record margin lasting, and only a little for the 2029 plan.

Share price
$30.99
close,
Price for each $1 of yearly profit
18.6
its 6-year normal -5.0

The shares doubled in six months from $15.79 in April, almost all of it a higher price per dollar of sales, and 8 of 11 analysts rate them hold or sell.

The tests come soon. Q3 2026 results on 5 November show what the second half loses as CMS removes members whose eligibility it doubts; Oscar expects 250,000 to 300,000. The 2027 sign-up season runs from 1 November to 15 January, and CMS's June 2027 report settles 2026's risk-adjustment bill.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C30facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $31.89 on 16 October 2026, within a 52-week range of $10.69 to $35.01, up 54.3% over 252 sessions and 102.0% over 126, almost all of the latter a higher price per dollar of sales. They trade at 18.65 times trailing profit per share. Short interest was 6.49% of the float at the 30 September settlement.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
C56facthigh confidence
Oscar lost $1.24 a share in Q4 2025 against $0.92 expected, reported 10 February 2026, then earned $2.07 a share in Q1 2026 against $1.21 expected; the shares were $15.79 on 17 April 2026.
historical · Q4 2025 and Q1 2026written 2026-10-18
C22facthigh confidence
The 10-Q says that as of 1 July 2026 about 250,000 to 300,000 members were expected to be retroactively disenrolled under CMS program integrity rules or fraud, waste and abuse law, and that premium for them is recorded as owed back to CMS rather than as revenue.
current state · 2026-07-01written 2026-10-18
C23facthigh confidence
The 10-Q says a federal court nullified parts of CMS's 2025 Program Integrity Rules on 12 June 2026, that the 2027 payment notice finalised on 15 May 2026 reintroduced stricter income checks, and that a court stayed those on 16 July 2026, so 2027's open enrolment runs 1 November to 15 January under mostly the old rules.
current state · 2026-07-20written 2026-10-18
C24management claimmedium confidence
The chief executive expects second-half membership churn about twice the 1% to 2% a month assumed earlier, as CMS eligibility removals delayed from Q2 arrive, and says the effects are in the guide. An analyst said CMS had sent insurers a list of 1 million members possibly unauthorised, about 80% in Florida and Texas; management gave no Oscar figure.
against this

The 10-Q states 250,000 to 300,000 expected removals (C22), but the CMS list Oscar is reviewing was not quantified for Oscar.

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
The betSafe, little upside
If it works
0.9×
from today's value, at the stated multiple
If it fails
keep 76%
of today's market value: the rest of the company, less its debt
How we read the multiple

Fully taxed, Oscar's 2026 guide gives about $1.54 of profit a share, so a buyer at $31.89 pays about 21 times this year's profit. That would be ordinary for a steady insurer, and Oscar is not yet one: over 2024 to 2026 its operating margin averages about 0.3%, and 2026 is the only year with a real margin.

If it reaches management's 2029 target of $4.00 a share, today's price is 8 times that, which is why the shares are not dear either.

Against its own history. Oscar has rarely had a profit to price, so its own past says little about what buyers should pay for each dollar of it.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C31estimatemedium confidence
Taxed and counted the way management counts its 2029 target, the 2026 guide gives $1.31 to $1.77 of profit a share, so $31.89 is 18.0 to 24.3 times 2026's profit, 20.7 at the midpoint, and 8.0 times the 2029 target of $4.00.
against this

Oscar's tax losses carried forward kept its reported tax to $38.9M over the last four quarters, so reported profit per share will be higher than this taxed figure for some years.

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C32inferencemedium confidence
2026 will be Oscar's most profitable year by a wide margin; over 2024 to 2026 its operating margin averages about 0.3%, so the price is paying for a margin the company has earned once.
against this

2024 and 2025 were years of a market made sicker by Medicaid redeterminations and then a reset, which management argues will not recur (C52).

current state · 2026-09-16written 2026-10-18
C14management claimlow confidence
Oscar's 2029 targets are revenue growth above 20% a year, an operating margin of 5% to 7% and profit of $4.00 or more a share, assuming about $20M of interest and other costs, a tax rate in the mid-20s and 331M diluted shares growing 2% to 3% a year; also an 80% medical loss ratio, running costs under 15% and 18% or more of the national market.
against this

Oscar's best year before 2026 earned 0.6% (C05, C32), and its 2024 Investor Day targets were followed by a 2025 loss (C15).

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
Priced against its rivals

Only Centene sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Florida Blue (GuideWell Mutual Holding Corporation), Health Care Service Corporation (Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Texas).

The bet: what it pays if it works

The bet is that employers stop buying group cover and instead give workers money to buy their own plans, and that Oscar, which bought the platforms to sell them, wins a large slice. Management expects that market to grow several times over by 2029.

Even at the share Oscar targets, the profit is small beside the rest of the company, so success would move the price little. If it fails, shareholders keep most of what they own, because the exchange plans carry the value.

Oscar CHOICE and the +Oscar platforms earnings in two to three yearsCHOICE members neededAt the stated multiple
$75.00Mabout 250.0K at 100% kept0.9×
$112.50M (the big win)about 375.0K at 100% kept0.9×
$225.00Mabout 750.0K at 100% kept1.1×

To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $829.15M of Oscar CHOICE and the +Oscar platforms earnings (about 2.8M CHOICE members); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $2.84B of Oscar CHOICE and the +Oscar platforms earnings (about 9.5M CHOICE members), at the same multiple.

Each row is Oscar CHOICE and the +Oscar platforms alone, plus the rest of the company (Oscar's ACA individual plans) counted at about $6.12B.

The steps it has to take

  • Done Enrolment platform bought and rivals signed onto ICHRAx
  • Done Oscar CHOICE membership doubles in a year
  • In progress 250 or more off-exchange products for the 2027 open enrolment due 2026-11
  • Not started Oscar discloses its CHOICE members or revenue due 2027-02
  • Not started 10% to 15% of CHOICE in its counties due 2029-12
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet at about
$5.76
81% below the price (close, )
The option
0.7×
what Oscar CHOICE and the +Oscar platforms is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C39management claimlow confidence
At Investor Day Oscar put employer-funded individual cover, which it now calls CHOICE, at under 0.2 million lives in 2023, 0.5 million or more in 2026 and 2.5 million or more by 2029. It says its own CHOICE membership about doubled in the year to February 2026, targets about three times its CHOICE market share and 10% to 15% of CHOICE in its counties by 2029, and reports about 85% retention for CHOICE members against about 75% for individual members.
against this

Oscar discloses no CHOICE member count or revenue, and its 2029 market figure rests on its own analysis of vendor data (C43).

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C40factmedium confidence
The HRA Council's 2026 report, built from 17 member platforms' enrolment records, says ICHRA-covered lives passed 500,000 at the start of 2026, that more than 20,000 businesses offer ICHRA or QSEHRA, and that adoption among large employers more than doubled on average.
against this

The HRA Council is a trade body of the platforms that sell ICHRA, so its count is an interested party's, though built from records rather than surveys.

current state · 2026-01-31written 2026-10-18
C43estimatelow confidence
Oscar's CHOICE members are probably in the tens of thousands, under 1% of its 2.96 million members, which is why the line is early.
against this

The share target is stated for its counties, not nationally, so the national figure could be lower or higher; Oscar has never stated the count.

current state · 2026-09-16written 2026-10-18
C44estimatelow confidence
A CHOICE member earning management's 2029 margin would make Oscar about $300 of profit a year, and about $150 at half that margin.
against this

CHOICE members choose silver and gold more often (C40), which carry higher premiums, but Oscar has published no margin for the line.

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C41management claimlow confidence
The chief executive says ICHRAx, an enrolment platform built on the federally approved direct-enrolment system Oscar bought, has all its competitors on it, that its plan-selection tools can save employers as much as 26% of their cost, and that Allstate Health and Aflac are among partners on its Lucie marketplace; he says the employer conversion fees are not regulated like premium and carry higher margins.
against this

Other revenues, where platform fees would sit, were $28.6M in all of 2025 (C53), and no ICHRAx figure has been published.

current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-18
C42facthigh confidence
In May 2025 Oscar bought Lucie, a direct-enrolment platform the 10-K calls one of only 11 CMS-approved solutions, an individual-market brokerage and Healthinsurance.org, to power ICHRA; its +Oscar Campaign Builder sells engagement software to providers and payers.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-18

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

2026 is a cycle top: the shares doubled, most analysts rate them hold or sell, and a third-quarter loss is expected.

We believe

The year's margin turns less on claims than on the risk-adjustment payment, set by rivals' members and settled a year late, so the shares are fair, not cheap.

The payment is published once a year, in CMS's June report, and every quarterly figure until then is an estimate. 2025's loss arrived exactly that way, at Centene as well as Oscar, when outside data showed the market sicker than expected.

We would be wrong if CMS's June 2027 report puts Oscar's 2026 payment at or below 20% of premium, with members above 2.6 million after removals. Then 2026's margin would look repeatable, and 21 times its profit would look low.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
27%
of 11, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
23%
of 13, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C08facthigh confidence
Risk-adjustment transfers paid out were $1,526.4M against $10,292.1M of direct premium in 2024 (14.8%), $2,596.8M against $14,031.3M in 2025 (18.5%), and $2,314.3M against $11,696.7M in the first half of 2026 (19.8%).
against this

The first-half figure includes about $160M of favourable 2025 true-up (C11); on current-year terms an analyst on the Q2 call estimated about 17.9%.

historical · FY2024 to H1 2026written 2026-10-18
C09facthigh confidence
CMS's risk adjustment report for 2025 shows Oscar Insurance Company of Florida paying $1,466,455,725.41 in the individual market, Oscar's Texas insurer $535,020,864.77 and its Georgia insurer $270,684,882.51, while Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Florida received $1,323,888,872.22. Transfers were 11.0% of premiums across the individual market.
historical · benefit year 2025written 2026-10-18
C07facthigh confidence
The 10-K says that in Q2 and Q3 2025 third-party reports showed the market's average risk scores significantly higher than expected, so Oscar raised the risk-adjustment payment it owed, and in Q4 a report showed its own members' relative scores lower than expected, so it raised it again. Centene's 10-K describes the same 2025 data from an independent actuarial firm cutting its own expected risk-adjustment revenue.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-18
C19facthigh confidence
Centene's 10-K says it is the largest exchange insurer, with 5.5 million members in 29 states at the end of 2025; that 2025 independent actuarial data showed a sicker exchange pool than expected and cut its risk-adjustment revenue; and that it repriced for 2026 in states covering 95% of its exchange members. Its Commercial segment, mostly exchange plans, had $42,003M of $194,777M of 2025 revenue.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C10management claimmedium confidence
The chief financial officer says Oscar is a risk-adjustment payer because its members skew younger, healthier and more urban than the market, more so as it grows, and that risk adjustment ran about 20% of direct premium in the first half of 2026, consistent with the full-year expectation.
against this

The same estimate rose three times in 2025 on third-party data (C07); the final figure for 2026 comes only in CMS's June 2027 report.

current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-18
C30facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $31.89 on 16 October 2026, within a 52-week range of $10.69 to $35.01, up 54.3% over 252 sessions and 102.0% over 126, almost all of the latter a higher price per dollar of sales. They trade at 18.65 times trailing profit per share. Short interest was 6.49% of the float at the 30 September settlement.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
C31estimatemedium confidence
Taxed and counted the way management counts its 2029 target, the 2026 guide gives $1.31 to $1.77 of profit a share, so $31.89 is 18.0 to 24.3 times 2026's profit, 20.7 at the midpoint, and 8.0 times the 2029 target of $4.00.
against this

Oscar's tax losses carried forward kept its reported tax to $38.9M over the last four quarters, so reported profit per share will be higher than this taxed figure for some years.

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • Rivals' members set the bill. If rivals' members prove sicker than Oscar's again, the risk-adjustment payment rises, as in 2025, when it helped turn a profit into a $396.4M loss.
  • The subsidy is the product. About 97% of premiums carried a federal tax credit. The enhanced credits expired after 2025, and any further cut shrinks the market Oscar sells into.
  • Members removed after the fact. CMS eligibility checks are expected to remove 250,000 to 300,000 members retroactively, and their premium is owed back rather than kept.
  • Members won on price leave. Oscar won 2026's members by being cheap, and members re-shop every year, so a rival pricing lower for 2027 can take them back.
  • Profit leans on old estimates. $232M of first-half profit was earlier years' estimates reversing, and the guide still implies a second-half loss of $292.7M to $492.7M.
  • Insiders hold the votes. Thrive Capital and the founders control most of the votes through 20-vote shares, so outside holders cannot change the board.
The evidence under this - 9 claims
C07facthigh confidence
The 10-K says that in Q2 and Q3 2025 third-party reports showed the market's average risk scores significantly higher than expected, so Oscar raised the risk-adjustment payment it owed, and in Q4 a report showed its own members' relative scores lower than expected, so it raised it again. Centene's 10-K describes the same 2025 data from an independent actuarial firm cutting its own expected risk-adjustment revenue.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-18
C05facthigh confidence
2025 revenue was $11,701.4M against $9,177.6M in 2024. Profit from operations was a loss of $396.4M against a profit of $57.3M, net income a loss of $443.2M against a profit of $25.4M, the medical loss ratio 87.4% against 81.7% and running costs 17.5% of revenue against 19.1%. The operating margin was minus 3.4% against 0.6%.
historical · FY2025 and FY2024written 2026-10-18
C25facthigh confidence
The 10-K says about 97% of its members' 2025 direct premiums were subsidised by federal tax credits, 92% in 2024; the enhanced credits expired at the end of 2025, and Congress could act in 2026 to restore them.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C22facthigh confidence
The 10-Q says that as of 1 July 2026 about 250,000 to 300,000 members were expected to be retroactively disenrolled under CMS program integrity rules or fraud, waste and abuse law, and that premium for them is recorded as owed back to CMS rather than as revenue.
current state · 2026-07-01written 2026-10-18
C21inferencemedium confidence
Much of Oscar's 2026 growth is share taken while listed rivals priced up or pulled back, at prices that also restored its own margin.
against this
  • Share won on price in a market where members re-shop every year can be lost the same way, and Centene still has about twice Oscar's members (C19).
  • Part of the gain may be members the eligibility checks will remove (C22).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C11management claimmedium confidence
Q2 2026 included $164M of favourable development on earlier periods, $232M in the first half, most of it about $160M from CMS's final 2025 risk-adjustment report. The chief financial officer says the Q2 medical loss ratio excluding it was about 82%.
against this

An analyst on the call computed about 85.2% for Q2 excluding the releases and the true-up; the CFO said the two would reconcile after the call.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-18
C13estimatehigh confidence
The 2026 guide implies the second half loses $292.7M to $492.7M from operations, against a loss of $463.0M in the second half of 2025, on revenue of about $9.2B to $9.5B rather than $5.8B.
against this

Second halves lose money at every ACA insurer as members meet their deductibles, and management says it has not taken full credit for favourable morbidity data (C52).

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C33facthigh confidence
The 2026 proxy shows Thrive Capital with 14.2% of the economic interest and 68.0% of the votes, the chief executive owning 11,925,092 shares (4.5%), co-founder Mario Schlosser's Class B shares carrying 13.4% of the votes, and directors and officers together 21.8% of the economics and 77.2% of the votes.
current state · 2026-04-10written 2026-10-18
C37facthigh confidence
Thrive Capital's amended 13D of 18 September 2026 reports about 6.34M Class A shares distributed in kind to its fund partners and Joshua Kushner beneficially owning 37,525,451 shares, 12.1%. Class B shares carry 20 votes each and convert to Class A automatically seven years after the 2021 listing.
current state · 2026-09-18written 2026-10-18
What we still do not know
  • How big Oscar's 2026 risk-adjustment bill really is, which CMS settles only in its June 2027 report.
  • How many members CMS's eligibility checks remove by the end of 2026, and whether they cost more than the guide assumes.
  • How many members Oscar's employer-paid plans have; the company does not report the number.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C08facthigh confidence
Risk-adjustment transfers paid out were $1,526.4M against $10,292.1M of direct premium in 2024 (14.8%), $2,596.8M against $14,031.3M in 2025 (18.5%), and $2,314.3M against $11,696.7M in the first half of 2026 (19.8%).
against this

The first-half figure includes about $160M of favourable 2025 true-up (C11); on current-year terms an analyst on the Q2 call estimated about 17.9%.

historical · FY2024 to H1 2026written 2026-10-18
C22facthigh confidence
The 10-Q says that as of 1 July 2026 about 250,000 to 300,000 members were expected to be retroactively disenrolled under CMS program integrity rules or fraud, waste and abuse law, and that premium for them is recorded as owed back to CMS rather than as revenue.
current state · 2026-07-01written 2026-10-18
C24management claimmedium confidence
The chief executive expects second-half membership churn about twice the 1% to 2% a month assumed earlier, as CMS eligibility removals delayed from Q2 arrive, and says the effects are in the guide. An analyst said CMS had sent insurers a list of 1 million members possibly unauthorised, about 80% in Florida and Texas; management gave no Oscar figure.
against this

The 10-Q states 250,000 to 300,000 expected removals (C22), but the CMS list Oscar is reviewing was not quantified for Oscar.

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C43estimatelow confidence
Oscar's CHOICE members are probably in the tens of thousands, under 1% of its 2.96 million members, which is why the line is early.
against this

The share target is stated for its counties, not nationally, so the national figure could be lower or higher; Oscar has never stated the count.

current state · 2026-09-16written 2026-10-18

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveA cheaper price on the same earnings

    It needs:

    • ○The shares fall to 12 times trailing profit per share, from about 18.6 when this was written.about $20.52 today, 34% below the last close
  2. Neutral→Attractive2026 proves to be a floor

    It needs all of:

    • ○Full-year 2026 profit from operations reaches $800M or more, with releases from earlier years under $250M.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
    • ○The risk-adjustment payment stays at or below 20% of Oscar's direct premium for 2026.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
    • ○Oscar's members grow at the 2027 sign-up season while total exchange sign-ups fall.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
  3. Neutral→UnattractiveThe payment to rivals rises again

    It needs any of:

    • ○The risk-adjustment payment rises above 21% of Oscar's direct premium for 2026.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
    • ○Oscar cuts its 2026 guide below $600M of profit from operations.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
We would also be wrong if
  • Retroactive removals run above 300,000 members, or members fall below 2.6 million by the end of 2026.
  • Oscar starts reporting its employer-paid members, and they pass 100,000 during 2027.

What is coming

  • 5 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether the second half loses no more than the guide implies and how many members the eligibility checks removed.
Every dated event ahead
  • 5 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether the second half loses no more than the guide implies and how many members the eligibility checks removed.
  • 15 January 2027 2027 open enrolment: Whether Oscar keeps growing in a market priced rationally, under mostly the old enrolment rules.
  • 15 February 2027 FY2026 results and 2027 guide: 2026's final risk-adjustment estimate, the 2027 margin guide and, perhaps, a CHOICE member count.
  • 30 June 2027 CMS risk adjustment report for 2026: The settled payment Oscar owes rivals for 2026, against its estimate of about 20% of direct premium.
Since we wrote this
Written
18 Oct
Price the thesis read
$31.89
16 Oct
Latest close
$30.99
close, · -2.8% since
  • 26 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Priced for success to Safe, little upsideRe-priced at the 23 October close.
  • 18 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten after Investor Day raised the 2026 guide: a record year whose margin depends on a risk-adjustment bill CMS settles next June.

Sources 18

Where this came from

Sources - 18

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-13
    Item 1, the risk factors, membership by state, the income statement, risk adjustment and the debt note
    backsC01C05C06C07C08C13C25C28C32C37C38C42C46C51C53
  2. S02primarycompany filing2026-08-07
    the balance sheet, statutory capital, membership, expected removals, the regulatory update, convertibles and share counts
    backsC03C04C08C11C21C22C23C26C27C28C29C44C47C49
  3. S03primarycompany release2026-08-06
    Q2 and first-half results and the August guide
    backsC02C03C13C46
  4. S04primarytranscript2026-08-06
    Oscar Health Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 6 August 2026
    risk adjustment, prior-period releases, churn, the CMS list, ICHRAx and Lucie
    So in general, we're a risk adjustment payer because our members skew younger.
    backsC04C10C11C12C17C24C41C52
  5. S05primarycompany release2026-09-16
    the raised 2026 guide, the 2029 targets, share and CHOICE slides, the 2024 targets
    Current 2029 projections assume: ~$20M in interest and other expenses, a mid-20s Effective Tax Rate, and 331M diluted shares as of 2Q26 growing 2-3% per year
    backsC12C13C14C15C17C18C21C31C32C39C43C44
  6. S06primarycompany release2026-09-16
    the 2029 margin, cost and share targets and the capital projection
    PROJECTED CUMULATIVE INTERNAL CAPITAL GENERATION, 2027 TO 2029
    backsC14C39C50
  7. S07primaryregulator2026-01-28
    national and state plan selections for 2026
    The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) reports that 23.0 million consumers have signed up for 2026 individual market health insurance coverage through the Marketplaces
    backsC16C47
  8. S08primaryregulator2026-06-30
    each issuer's 2025 transfer, Oscar's three insurers and Florida Blue
    the absolute value of risk adjustment state transfers remained 11.0 percent of premiums in the individual non-catastrophic market risk pool
    backsC09
  9. S09primarycompany filing2026-02-17
    its exchange membership, the 2025 morbidity data, its 2026 repricing and segment revenue
    backsC07C19C21
  10. S10primarycompany filing2026-02-10
    its planned exchange retreat
    backsC20C21
  11. S11primarycompany filing2026-04-22
    ownership, pay and the leaders' records
    backsC33C34C45
  12. S12primarycompany filing2026-04-07
    the 1,000,000-share purchase from the company and the performance-share vesting
    backsC35
  13. S13primarycompany filing2026-08-31
    the option exercises and discretionary sales
    backsC36
  14. S14primarycompany filing2026-09-18
    the distribution in kind and Kushner's holding
    backsC37
  15. S15primaryvendor data2026-10-16
    Research pack for OSCR (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, insider series), fetched 18 October 2026
    the 16 October close, ranges and returns, the trailing multiple, analysts, earnings reactions, short interest, the insider roster and headcount
    backsC30C31C36C46C55C56
  16. S16primaryindustry data2026-08-12
    the outside count of ICHRA lives and employers
    The data suggests the number of ICHRA-covered lives alone (not including the thousands of QSEHRA-covered lives) surpassed 500,000 at the beginning of 2026.
    backsC40C43
  17. S17primarycompany filing2026-02-06
    its Blue licence and business mix
    backsC48
  18. S18primarycompany release2026-02-10
    the first 2026 guide (profit from operations $250M to $450M) and the $475M revolving credit facility entered on 6 February 2026
    backsC12
Rendered from content/OSCR/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-18. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.