Centrus said on 29 October that its Tennessee factory finished its first new uranium centrifuge and is shipping it to Ohio for final assembly, and that its supply chain is in place. It beat the year-end target the company set earlier. The first new capacity in Ohio is still expected in 2029. The release gives no cost, size or machine count for the plant.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. It is real progress on building the machines, which our case already assumed, and the 2029 date is unchanged. Our view turns on the plant's cost and size, which Centrus still has not given, so those stay the test for the 4 November results.
At an investor day on 28 October, Oracle set a fiscal 2030 target of $225 billion or more in revenue. It said cash flow after spending turns positive in the second half of fiscal 2028 and reaches $30 billion or more in fiscal 2029. It will raise no more than $20 billion of new money through fiscal 2030, half in shares.
What it did to the thesisOur Neutral view held. The dated cash plan answers a worry we had listed, but it is a promise: no new named buyer was announced and spending keeps rising until then. The 9 December results are the next test.
The chief financial officer gives no date for positive free cash flow, but says each project, once ramped, converts close to 100% of after-tax operat…
CNBC reports the US Justice Department has asked Nvidia how buying Hugging Face, a popular site for sharing AI models, could affect competitors. The deal costs about $12.9 billion and is due to close in the first half of 2027. It is a request for information, not a lawsuit.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The purchase is a side bet beside our case, which waits on the 17 November results. A longer review could push the closing past mid-2027, which we will watch.
ACM Research said ahead of its 5 November report that third-quarter sales will be $360 to $365 million, up 34% to 36% on a year ago and about a quarter above the second quarter. Orders shipped to customers will be $335 to $340 million, up 27% to 29%. It gave no split by product.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. Sales are strong, but our test is whether the core cleaning business grows again and whether a new product wins a first production order. Neither is in this notice, so we wait for 5 November.
Vertiv said it completed its purchases of King Environmental Services and UtilityInnovation Group, both expected to close this quarter. We could not cite a price or sales figure for either.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The deals were already in our write-up as expected to close, and no figure we hold changed. The 28 October results are the test, and we will fold the closings into that review. View stays Neutral.
At its Oracle AI World event Oracle said it will build OpenAI's ChatGPT and Codex into its business software, offer Google's AI chips on its cloud from next year, and expand its Nvidia Vera Rubin capacity to multi-gigawatt scale. None of the announcements gave a contract value, customer count or date for revenue.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. These are products and supply choices that spread Oracle's chip risk, but our case rests on the $664 billion backlog, mostly OpenAI, and on spending. The 9 December results test both.
Meta priced its new share sales late on 26 October. The ordinary shares were raised from $22.5 billion to $25 billion, sold at $625 each. The preferred shares pay 6.5% a year and turn into ordinary shares in 2029. Press reports say Nvidia will buy $3 billion of the offering; Meta's filings do not name buyers.
What it did to the thesisThis confirms the funding plan we scored yesterday and makes it about $2.5 billion bigger, roughly 0.1% of Meta's value. Nothing moved: we keep Attractive and Low confidence, and the scores for funding and dilution stay where they were.
On 26 October 2026 Meta launched about $35 billion of underwritten offerings: 250,000,000 depositary shares (about $12.5 billion at a $50 liquidation…
IonQ said the Air Force Research Laboratory awarded it $7.5 million of follow-on funding for quantum networking work. We saw the headline only, so the term and when the money counts as sales are unknown.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. It is small against IonQ's spending and share pay, and fits the government demand we already describe. The 4 November results are the test. View stays Unattractive.
Intel announced it will buy Classiq, an Israeli quantum software company, to offer both the hardware and software for quantum computers. Intel gave no price; Bloomberg reports about $2.3B, and Israeli press says part is paid in shares. The deal needs regulatory approval and is expected to close in the first half of 2027.
What it did to the thesisAlmost nothing moved. Our case turns on chip prices, outside customers for Intel's factories and the share count. At $2.3B the deal is small beside Intel's cash, and we cannot yet say if shares are used. The view stays Unattractive.
Guidewire will buy hyperexponential, a London company selling AI software that helps commercial insurers price and underwrite risk, for $1.7 billion in cash plus up to $400 million if sales targets are met. It is already a Guidewire partner.
What it did to the thesisNothing in our argument moved yet. This is the company's first large purchase after years of small ones and no price, closing date or sales figure is out. Our next test is still the December results; we will read the deal terms then. View stays Neutral.
Oracle said at its AI World event that Google's own AI chips, called TPUs, will be rented through Oracle's cloud, starting next year and growing over several years. Reuters reported it; no amount of chips, price or customer was named, and Google's own announcement was not found.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. It points to Google selling its chips beyond its own data centres, which our case already notes, but gives no revenue. Tomorrow's results carry the real test.
EnerSys will offer $16.00 a share in cash for Ultralife, a maker of batteries for military radios, drones and munitions, valuing it at about $320 million. Ultralife sold $191 million in its 2025 fiscal year. EnerSys expects $15-20 million of yearly savings and to pay from cash it holds. Closing is expected in early 2027.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. It adds to the defence side we already follow and spends cash that also funds the lithium plant and buybacks. EnerSys says profit per share only gains after about 18 months. Our test is still the 4 November results.
Constellation announced a conditional loan commitment of up to $5 billion from the US Department of Energy to expand nuclear output. One summary says the money would raise output at existing plants. We could not read the announcement itself, so the interest cost, the plants and the conditions are unknown. Nothing has been borrowed yet.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. Cheaper money could help growth without straining the balance sheet, which our case watches. Until we can read the terms and see what is actually borrowed, the view stays where it was.
AMD said its first Helios racks, full server racks for AI, are installed at Meta and being tested, and that Meta uses AMD chips in its AI agent and in production. It also said AMD will put $1B into Meta's share offering. It gave no Helios revenue or shipment dates.
What it did to the thesisSmall change. The $1B adds to the money AMD already puts behind its own customers, which our case counts as a cost to shareholders. Racks in testing are not yet sales. The view stays Neutral until the 3 November results show Helios revenue.
AMD is now paying toward part of its own demand: up to $5B of equity in Anthropic, up to $4.1B of lease guarantees, credit support for TensorWave's l…
Tempus told the SEC it will earn $137.5 million from Bristol Myers Squibb over about five years for cancer data, and up to $55 million from Pathos AI, a company its own chief executive helps run, for brain-disease records. Separately, Tempus said a European regulator certified one of its tumour RNA tests; we could not read that announcement.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The deals add contracted data revenue, but about $38 million a year is small against what the price needs, and the Pathos part adds to the related-party share we watch. The 2 November results will show how much it matters.
Elon Musk said on X on 25 October that SpaceX has secured $40 billion of debt to buy the graphics chips that train AI models. He gave no lender, interest rate or repayment date, and we found no filing. We read a Business Insider copy, as CNBC and Reuters block our reader.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. We already rate SpaceX Unattractive partly because it spends far more than it earns. $40 billion of new borrowing against $39.4 billion of existing debt and leases adds to that. Without terms we cannot size it; the filing will tell.
Soluna said it repaid the last of a $28.7 million loan from Generate Capital: $19.1 million in August and the rest in October. The loan is closed and the lender's claim on the company's sites is released. Total debt falls from $37.9 million, counted at 30 June, to $9.2 million.
What it did to the thesisThe view stays Unattractive. The lender test we feared is gone, but the repayment used cash, and the real problems remain: no signed AI lease, constant share sales, and preferred holders ahead of ordinary shareholders.
Management concluded it will probably fail its lender's forward test, which counts only contracted revenue, within a year; waiving June's test cost a…
At 30 June 2026 the company held $113.4M of cash and $17.9M restricted, owed $37.9M of loan principal, and carried a $19.3M liability to Hewlett Pack…
EQT, another big Appalachian gas producer, agreed to buy Range. Each Range share turns into 0.987 EQT shares, with no cash. Range's owners would hold about 27% of the combined company. Both companies' shareholders must vote yes and regulators must clear it; the deal is due to finish by 25 October 2027.
What it did to the thesisOur view stays neutral. Until the deal closes, Range's price will follow EQT's rather than Range's own gas contracts. We also rate EQT neutral, so the two views agree. The market had not yet priced the news when we wrote this.
RadNet will buy ONRAD, which supplies remote radiologists to over 225 hospital sites. Owners get $350M in cash and 5M RadNet shares, plus up to $210M more if ONRAD hits a 2027 profit target. RadNet says it should add $190M to $200M of sales and $60M to $65M of profit in its first year. The deal should close in early 2027.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. On RadNet's own numbers it is cheap next to its own price, but the profit is unchecked, new shares dilute owners, and it adds a business outside our case. The view stays Unattractive until filed figures and the call show the profit is real.
Microsoft told staff on 26 October that about 60,000 employees, over a quarter of the company, can choose to leave with severance-style pay. Sales, data-center and some engineering teams are left out. People have until early December to decide, and no second offer is planned.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. It is a cost-saving step, not a change in demand for Azure or in the backlog our case turns on. We will see how many accept, and what it costs, in later results. View stays Neutral; results on 28 October are the test.
On 26 October Meta launched about $35 billion of share offerings: $22.5 billion of common stock and about $12.5 billion of preferred stock that turns into common shares in 2029. It also plans a further $60 billion of gradual stock sales from 2027, about $95 billion in all, to help pay for its AI data centres. Meta still holds about $82 billion of cash.
What it did to the thesisMeta said on 22 October it had no financing plan; now it does. New shares mean each existing holder owns a smaller slice. Funding strength and protection from dilution each fall one level. We keep Attractive and Low confidence, since the shares are cheaper than when we wrote the case.
Meta's board approved on 19 October 2026 a new class of non-voting Class C common stock, effective 19 January 2027, with a one-for-one stock dividend…
Fabrinet closed at $314.94 on 23 October, down from $463.69 on 2 October. Other optical makers fell too, and the company filed nothing new. The whole company is now worth 22.5 times last year's operating profit, down from 34 times.
What it did to the thesisThe price now needs about 14% growth a year to 2029, not 31%, so we call it fairly priced rather than full. The view stays Neutral: becoming attractive also needs its AI module sales to grow again, which the 2 November results will show.
At $463.69 Fabrinet is worth about $16.6B on 35,834,864 shares and, net of $875.1M of cash, about $15.7B as a company: 34.0 times fiscal 2026 operati…
Carried three years at 10% and divided by 20, today's company value needs about $1.05B of fiscal 2029 operating income, about $10.5B of revenue at a…
EQT agreed to buy Range Resources, another large Appalachian gas producer. It pays 0.987 EQT shares for each Range share, no cash, so Range's owners would hold about 27% of the combined company. Both sets of shareholders must vote yes and regulators must clear it. The two companies expect $325 million a year in savings.
What it did to the thesisOur view stays neutral. The deal adds scale and a vote to pass, but our case turns on pipelines, export deals and falling debt, which it does not answer. The savings figure is the companies' own estimate. Results on 27 October still carry the test.
Everus closed at $94.91 on 23 October, down from $126.17 on 5 October. The company filed nothing and reported nothing. Counting the debt taken on for its Epsilon purchase, it is now valued at about 11.8 times the profit management expects this year, down from 15.4.
What it did to the thesisWe moved our view from Neutral to Attractive. We called the shares fair only because they paid for a peak profit margin; at this price even management's normal margin is paid for. The business has not changed, and the 3 November results test whether the margin holds.
The shares closed at $106.00 on 21 October 2026, a market value of $5.41B, 38.2% below the May high of $171.58 and 16.0% below the $126.17 of 5 Octob…
At $106.00, adding the $295M paid for Epsilon to June's net debt, enterprise value is about $5.83B: about 13.1 times guided 2026 EBITDA of $417.5M pl…
Four financial firms said they will fund a $63 billion vehicle that buys Broadcom's AI chips and networking and leases them to Anthropic, with deliveries starting in 2027. Broadcom will give residual value support equal to the senior loan, meaning it stands behind the equipment's resale value. The size of that senior loan was not given.
What it did to the thesisGood for demand, since the chips get paid for. But Broadcom again stands behind its customer, so its exposure to Anthropic's ability to pay grows by an amount not yet disclosed. View and confidence stay; the December report should show the terms.
In June 2026 Broadcom launched the AI XPV platform with an initial $35 billion tranche led by Apollo with Blackstone and global banks, to fund more t…
Broadcom's largest planned customer for 2027 is a company whose rent Broadcom guarantees and may fund: the backstop covers 85% of Anthropic's outstan…
On 23 October Amazon chief executive Andy Jassy said capacity for AWS, its cloud business, is largely sold out for 2027, with a good chunk of 2028 also spoken for, and gave no dollar amount. On 26 October Verizon said in its results release that it signed a deal worth over $2 billion with AWS for AI computing, without giving terms or length.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Both match what we already hold: a $496 billion order backlog and management saying it lacks capacity. The Verizon deal is about 0.4% of that backlog. Our test is the 29 October results: cloud growth, backlog and cash flow.
Applied Materials agreed to buy more shares of Besi, a Dutch maker of machines that bond chips together, so it owns about 20%. It first bought in April 2025. It says it will not go higher or seek a board seat. The price was not disclosed, and the deal waits on a US antitrust waiting period.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. It is a sign Applied wants a strong position in chip packaging, which fits our case, but without a price we cannot weigh it against its cash. The view stays Neutral; the November results remain the next test.
Applied Optoelectronics closed at $67.51 on 23 October, down from $99.26 on 30 September. Other optical makers fell 22% to 32% over the same weeks, and the company filed nothing new. Counting the shares it sold in August and all the cash raised, the company is worth at least 8.7 times its last year of sales.
What it did to the thesisOur view stays Unattractive. The price we said would make us reconsider, 8 times sales, was flagged as reached only because of a dating slip in our own figures; correctly dated it is not reached. The price now needs about $2 billion of sales instead of $3.1 billion.
At $99.26 on 30 September 2026 the market value is about $8.39B on 84.57M shares; adding $92.8M of bank debt and $125M of convertibles and taking off…
For a 6% after-tax yield at 21% tax, the $8.10B enterprise value needs about $615M of operating profit. At a 20% operating margin that is about $3.1B…
The shares fell from $29.10 on 6 November 2025, after a third-quarter print 9.8% below the revenue estimate, to $19.49 on 20 November; rose 56.9% the…
NVE's shares closed at $68.36 on 22 October, down 33.7% from $103.07 the day before, the first session after September's sales fell 47% to $5.8M. At that price the shares cost 18.5 times the last year's profit, near the 20.6 times they have usually cost over six years. Four law firms announced investigations, which are not company news.
What it did to the thesisWe moved our view from Unattractive to Neutral. We called the shares full because they counted on June's sales returning; at the lower price they do not. The business has not changed, and December's sales still decide whether September was a pause.
The shares closed at $102.05 on 20 October 2026, the session before the results, down 12.4% from $116.53 on 6 October.
At $102.05 the shares are worth about $494M, about $450M net of cash and securities. That is 27.7 times trailing earnings against a six-year median o…
Forgent closed at $24.92 on 22 October, down 21.5% on six times the usual trading. The shares opened 14% lower minutes after the company said its finance chief was leaving, seven months after listing and without severance. That afternoon it added that he left over no disagreement and said its quarter beat its forecast, and the shares recovered part of the fall.
What it did to the thesisWe moved our view from Neutral to Attractive: the price now pays for the year already ordered. Confidence stays Medium because the finance chief's exit raises a question about the accounts; a restatement or a control weakness in the 12 November report would make it Unattractive.
At $40.35 the company value is about $12.78B, about 21.3 times the $600M midpoint of FY27 adjusted EBITDA guidance and the shares about 30 times the…
The shares closed at $40.35 on 2 October 2026, 38.9% below the $66.00 high. From the 22 June close of $61.84 they fell 54% to $28.64 on 14 September,…
If FY28 sales reach consensus at FY27's guided margin, today's company value is about 15.7 times FY28 profit before interest, tax and depreciation; a…
The shares closed at $24.92 on 22 October 2026, 62.2% below the $66.00 high and 13.0% under the $28.64 low of 14 September. They rose about 41% after…
A filing shows Teradyne, which makes chip-testing machines, will buy 2,234,887 new FormFactor shares for about $300 million, expected to close in the fourth quarter. The partnership release names no customers, revenue or products. FormFactor also announced its Texas plant opened; that release could not be read.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. The cash would about double what FormFactor held in June and adds about 2.8% to the share count, but it has not closed and the partnership has no stated revenue. The view stays Unattractive; the 4 November results are the test.
FICO said it is holding its mortgage credit score fee at $10 for lenders enrolled in its preferred program, in answer to cheaper rivals. We could read only the headlines. How long the $10 lasts, who qualifies and whether lenders must promise volume are unknown.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. We already assume about $10 for 2027, so a hold adds no new fact until we see the period and the terms. The 4 November results and fiscal 2027 guidance are the test of the fee and of volume.
EQT said its third-quarter results come after the close on 27 October, with the call on 28 October, a week later than we had pencilled in. It raised its quarterly dividend 3% to $0.17 a share and set up a $3.5 billion short-term borrowing programme, none of it used yet.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved in the argument. Only the test date changed: the same questions on the Southgate pipeline, export deals and falling debt are now answered on 27 to 28 October. The dividend rise is small beside the debt paydown we are watching.
Filings show the chief executive bought 55,803 shares at $18.04 and the president bought 300,000 at about $18.86 on 16 October, with their own money and no pre-set plan. Until then nobody inside had bought in over a year, while 20 sales were made.
What it did to the thesisOur note that no insider bought is now out of date and was corrected. The buying is small next to the stock they own and says nothing about rent or debt, so the view stays Neutral and confidence stays Medium.
Insiders made no open-market purchases in the last year and twenty open-market sales; nineteen of the twenty, and 98.8% of the shares sold, were disc…
ACM Research's shares closed at 49.12 on 22 October, 32.5% below where we last measured them, and its larger rivals Lam Research and Applied Materials were marked down too. No new filing explains it. ACM also said it will report third-quarter results on 5 November, not 4 November.
What it did to the thesisThe business evidence did not move, but the price notes did. ACM now trades level with its own past instead of well above it, and still cheap against Lam and Applied. We keep Neutral: cash still lags profit.
ACM trades at a TTM P/E of 32.25x and EV/EBITDA of 14.83x, both above their prior-three-fiscal-year medians of 20.99x and 10.83x; TTM ROIC is 4% vers…
Against the two listed, filing-confirmed competitors (Lam Research, Applied Materials), ACM trades at a discount on every cohort multiple - EV/EBIT 2…
At today's price, ACM's 29.1x EV/EBIT prices in continued high-20s/low-30s percent revenue growth and a narrowing (not full closing) of its discount…
T1 announced that the Commerce Department gave it a waiver tied to the new polysilicon tariffs. We could not read the release, so we do not know what it covers or for how long. Separately, T1 filed that it will pay $30 million of its patent price in 9,962,645 new shares, about $3.01 each.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. We cannot judge the waiver without its terms, and it does not touch the funding or credit-sale tests due 13 November. The share payment was already in our funding stress case; it adds to the pile of new shares.
Nebius signed a $3.5 billion loan with Citi, due 16 October 2027. It costs a floating rate plus 2.75 percentage points, rising to 3.5 over nine months, and is backed by nearly all of the company's assets. The money pays for data centers and chips. Nebius says it keeps its options open for longer-term financing.
What it did to the thesisNothing in the view moved. Our case needs the build funded without heavy new shares; this is debt, so that holds for now. But it is short, dearer than July's loan and has to be replaced within a year, so funding stays the thing to watch.
Merck and Moderna gave the full results of a large trial of intismeran, a cancer shot made for each patient, added to Keytruda after melanoma surgery. After about two years, it cut the risk of the cancer returning or death by 42% against Keytruda alone. Survival data is not mature yet. They are talking to regulators and will present at the ESMO cancer congress.
What it did to the thesisThe case holds. We already counted this trial as a win. The numbers make it firmer and the talks with regulators fit our filing-by-2027 check, but no filing exists, survival is unproven, and the price already pays for new medicines working. Neutral stays.
On 19 August 2026 Merck and Moderna said intismeran, a personalised mRNA cancer treatment, added to Keytruda cut melanoma recurrence at a planned int…
Forgent's chief financial officer, Ryan Fiedler, stepped down on 21 October; Amy Ard, who has run its finance team since January, replaces him, and a filing says it was no disagreement over accounting. Later that day Forgent said its September-quarter sales and adjusted earnings will beat the top of its forecast ($465M and $100M), with no exact figures. Results come 12 November.
What it did to the thesisOur view held. A stated beat with no figures does not tell us the size or the margin, and the case rests on orders, prices and capacity. The 12 November report shows how big the beat is and whether the full-year forecast moves.
Gary Niederpruem has been chief executive since May 2025 after six years at Vertiv, where he helped lead its carve-out and listing; Ryan Fiedler, chi…
Forgent guides FY27 revenue of $2.4B to $2.6B, up about 76% at the midpoint, adjusted EBITDA of $575M to $625M (about 24%) and adjusted EPS of $1.26…
Gary Niederpruem has been chief executive since May 2025 after six years at Vertiv, where he helped lead its carve-out and listing. Ryan Fiedler, chi…
Affirm says it launched as the exclusive pay-over-time provider at Sam's Club, the warehouse chain. We could read only the headline, so how long the deal runs, how much it may bring in and whether it covers stores or online are unknown.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. A large new merchant could widen Affirm's base beyond its biggest partner, but no volume or terms were readable. The 5 November results are the next test of whether returns per loan hold.
Adeia says it signed a multi-year renewal of its patent licence with TCL, a television maker. We could read only the headline. The length of the deal, which patents it covers and what TCL pays were not readable.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. A renewal fits management's claim that most customers renew, but without the terms we cannot tell whether payments rose or fell. The 2 November results are the next test.
Soluna agreed to form a joint company with Applied Digital, which would own 51% and provide the money, to develop a 50 MW AI data centre on Soluna's Texas site. A company Applied owns signed a non-binding letter of intent to rent it. Closing depends on a local tax abatement and final contracts.
What it did to the thesisA partner funding the build is the kind of deal our case wanted, but there is no signed lease, no money or rent stated, and the tenant is owned by the partner. The shares are down 46% to $0.577. The view stays Unattractive.
No AI lease is signed. For Kati 2 the company has a letter of intent, with exclusivity, with an unnamed tenant, and its 10-Q says it cannot assure a…
Applied Digital, which Soluna's 10-K names as a rival, had signed leases for about 1,410 MW of AI load worth about $36.2B over 15-year terms at 31 Ma…
At $1.06 on 246.7 million shares the common is worth about $262M, behind a $158.1M preferred claim and $37.9M of loan principal, against $113.4M of J…
Kati 2's first 100 MW at a rival's $11M to $13M a megawatt costs $1.1B to $1.3B; with 80% project debt the equity is $220M to $260M, more than June's…
CNBC reports that OpenAI will sell its models on Google's cloud, widening where business customers can buy them beyond Microsoft's Azure. Copies of the story say customers can pay through Google's marketplace. CNBC itself could not be read here, and no figures were given.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Microsoft agreed in April that OpenAI could sell through any cloud, so this is that deal in use. What matters is whether OpenAI shifts its Azure spending, which Microsoft would report on 28 October. View stays Neutral.
IREN announced a 300 megawatt campus in Spain aimed at European governments' own AI needs. We could not open the announcement itself. IREN's website shows the site, Badajoz, as planned for 2028 or later, with no customer, cost or start of power given.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The Spanish site was already counted in the roughly 5 gigawatts of power IREN holds. Without a customer or a cost, it adds no new evidence. The 5 November results remain the next test.
Reuters and CNBC report that OpenAI will sell its top models on Google Cloud. Outlets that copied the story say business customers can buy them through Google's marketplace using money they already committed to Google Cloud, with the newest models due in weeks. No sales, prices or terms were given.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. It gives Google Cloud another product to sell, but Google already says it cannot supply enough capacity, so extra demand may not lift growth soon. The 28 October report is the test. View stays Neutral.
On 20 October Super Micro said that, before audit, its September quarter sales were $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion, against a forecast of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion. It put its profit margin on sales at 12.0% to 12.5%, against a forecast of 10.4% to 10.8%. Full results come on 3 November.
What it did to the thesisThe margin and sales parts of our case look better, but nothing moved the view. The case turns on whether growth is paid for from cash it earns, and the release says nothing on cash, stock on hand or funding. View stays Neutral.
Q1 fiscal 2027 gross margin is guided to 10.4%-10.8%.
Fiscal 2027 revenue is guided to $65.0B-$72.0B, and Q1 to $14.5B-$15.5B with GAAP diluted earnings of $0.89-$0.98 on 745 million diluted shares.
At its 16 October annual meeting Soluna's shareholders voted to raise the most shares it may have from 375 million to 1 billion, and to let an equity line (a deal to sell new shares to an investor over time) sell 20% or more of the current shares. The change took effect that day. Dan Golding was elected a director.
What it did to the thesisOur case already expected Soluna to keep funding itself by selling shares, so the view did not move. The vote removes the cap on how many it can sell; it does not mean it will. We now watch how many are sold in the September quarter.
The 16 October 2026 meeting asks holders to raise authorised common shares from 375 million to 1 billion, and to allow the $250M equity line to issue…
Marqeta said Block's Square will run its business credit card, backed by the American Express network, on Marqeta, joining its debit and prepaid cards there. Marqeta also announced a stablecoin-backed card tie-up with Coinbase. Neither announcement gave volumes, revenue or terms, and only the opening of the Block release could be read.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Block is already Marqeta's largest customer, and Cash App's new cards are leaving. Square's credit card staying shows some Block volume remains, but without volume figures it cannot change our growth view. The 3 November results are the test.
Salesforce signed a deal to buy Braze, which sells software for messaging customers in real time, for about $5.66 billion in cash ($47.50 a share). It expects to close in its fiscal 2028, pending Braze shareholder and regulator approval. Salesforce says this year's outlook is unchanged and it has not yet given next year's.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. Our case already names Salesforce's habit of buying growth with cash and borrowed money. This is another purchase of that kind, but it closes next year, so it changes no figure or test until then.
TTM will pay about $650 million in cash for Ophir Optics, which MKS currently owns. It makes infrared cameras' lenses and laser optics for defence, security and industry. TTM expects to fund it from cash, future cash flow and its credit line, and to close in the second quarter of 2027. No sales or profit figures were given.
What it did to the thesisNothing in our case moved yet. It adds more debt to a company already borrowing for Epiq, and a third defence-related purchase, but closes only in 2027 and gives no figures. The leverage test and September-quarter print are still what decide.
MKS will sell Ophir Optics, which makes lenses for infrared cameras and laser optics for defence, security and industry, to TTM for $650 million in cash. MKS keeps its laser measurement business and the Ophir brand. The sale should close in the second quarter of 2027. MKS gave no sales or profit figures for what it is selling.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The business sits in the smallest of MKS's three markets, outside chip equipment, which is what our case is about. The cash helps pay down debt in 2027, but no sales figure is given, so we cannot yet size the effect on guidance.
Lilly said its Omvoh injection met the main goal of a one-year trial in children aged 6 to 17 with ulcerative colitis: 50% of those who responded early were in remission at week 52. Lilly plans to ask regulators for a wider label. Separately, Reuters reported a deal worth up to $1.1 billion with Metis TechBio; we could read only the headline.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Omvoh is part of immunology, about 6% of sales, so a children's label adds little to our case, which turns on volume against price and the 29 October results. The Metis terms are unknown.
Centrus bought Westerman Holdings on 16 October for about $116 million: $95 million in cash and $21 million in new shares. Westerman builds casings and other parts for Centrus's uranium centrifuges and also sells equipment to oil and gas customers. Centrus says it will lower project costs. It gave no figures for Westerman's sales or profit, and none for the cost of its planned plant.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Owning a parts supplier may help the plant get built, but our case turns on the plant's cost and size, which Centrus has still not disclosed. The cash is small beside what it holds; the new shares make each existing holder's slice slightly smaller.
On 13 October K&S's pay committee said that for fiscal 2027 bonuses will pay half on operating profit and half on gross margin, instead of net income and operating margin. Executives will also get 15% of their award from personal goals.
What it did to the thesisA small update to our note on how the new chief executive is paid. Nothing in the plan pays for growth or cash, which is the point we already made. The case and the view are unchanged.
The new chief executive's annual bonus targets 110% of a $750,000 salary, paid between 0% and 200% on corporate results whose metrics the compensatio…
IES's official filing on the DBM purchase shows a price of about $691 million: $545 million in cash and 430,974 IES shares. The cash came from IES's own money and a credit line enlarged to $700 million. A separate filing shows IES's largest owner, Tontine, still holds about 52% and has not traded in 60 days.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. We had counted the deal at $685 million; the difference is only the shares' value on the day before closing. DBM still costs about 7.5 times its yearly profit. IES's shares are about 22% lower than when we wrote, which changes the price paid, not the business.
IES agreed on 10 August 2026 to buy DBM Global for about $685M, $545M in cash and $140M in shares, and both companies announced on 5 October 2026 tha…
GEO announced it finished repaying every one of its senior secured notes due 2029. In an October filing it had said it would repay $650 million of 8.625% notes on 15 October using money from selling its Adelanto facilities. We could read only the headline of the new announcement.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. This is the step our notes already expected, and it fits the first part of the November test, which asks whether the sale money went to debt. The interest saved will show in the 5 November results.
DayOne Data Centers, which GDS partly owns, filed public listing documents on October 5. They show sales of $512 million in the first half of 2026, up from $152 million a year earlier, a half-year loss of $77 million, 666 megawatts being billed, and GDS owning 19.4%. The price and size of the offering are left blank.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved in our view. The filing shows DayOne is growing fast and still losing money, as we already had it, and gives no listing price, which is what the value of GDS's stake waits for. GDS's own shares fell about 16%.
Expand's board named Danny Brown chief executive on 19 October, to start about 26 October. He ran Chord Energy and spent two decades at Anadarko. The firing was in February, so the search took about eight and a half months, within the six to nine the chairman promised. Earlier this month it also named a chief accounting officer and lengthened its bank credit line by a year.
What it did to the thesisThe leadership gap, the biggest open question in our case, is now closed on paper. The view stays Neutral, confidence Medium, because the rest of the case is untested: what Twin Eagle cost, net debt against our billion line, and cash earnings still not cheaper than rivals'.
On February 6, 2026, Expand's board terminated CEO Domenic (Nick) J. Dell'Osso, Jr. without cause, effective immediately; he also resigned from the b…
On the Q2 2026 earnings call held 2026-07-29, Interim President and CEO Michael Wichterich disclosed a timeline for the CEO search that no 8-K carrie…
Expand's senior leadership turned over almost completely across 2026 in a sequence no single filing shows: the CEO was terminated 2026-02-06 (C09); M…
Below the interim chief executive and the new CFO (C09, C28), Joshua Viets has been EVP and chief operating officer since February 2022, after twenty…
Before its full report on 5 November, Eos said third-quarter sales were $82 to $83 million, up about a fifth. The loss on making and selling its batteries narrowed from 71 cents per sales dollar to about 54. Orders on hand fell to about $765 million from $807 million, and full-year sales are now expected in the lower half of its $300 to $350 million range.
What it did to the thesisThe test we set cannot be scored yet: Eos did not say how much came from customers other than its related Frontier venture, or give the adjusted margin. Sales and margin moved the right way, backlog and the forecast the other way. Our view is unchanged.
Bitdeer's last monthly update says it mined 1,355 bitcoin in September and ran 82.3 exahash per second of its own mining power, up from 79.9. Its AI cloud contracts now total about $2.9 billion, up from $0.9 billion. It will report quarterly from now on. It said nothing on its Norway site funding.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Our concern is how the Norway site is funded and whether more shares are sold; this update says nothing on either. The bigger AI order book is real but small next to that funding need. November 9 results are the test.
X-energy and utility AEP signed a study agreement for 12 small nuclear reactors in Indiana (about 960 megawatts), with Amazon paying part of the development and first in line for the power; no amount or date. Amazon also said new free software, TorchNeuron, lets developers run their existing PyTorch code on its own Trainium AI chips with few changes.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The reactor study ties to the power limit on the build; no cost came with it. The software makes Amazon's chips easier to adopt, but is a beta and the claim is Amazon's own. Our test is the 29 October results.
NioCorp said it had $405.1M in cash at 30 September, down from $415.0M. It reported $3.7M of profit, but that came from $8.5M of non-cash gains as its share price fell. Operations used $6.1M and the mine entrance $5.9M. Its filing on the Traxys deal lets either side cancel if EXIM has not approved the loan by end-2027.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved in the view. Spending matches plan and the profit is not real earnings. The new cancel date ties the niobium sales deal to the EXIM loan, which is still not approved. Scandium still has no bound buyer.
On 13 October 2026 NioCorp signed a binding definitive agreement with Traxys North America: Traxys will buy 50% of planned ferroniobium on a take-or-…
Vistra said it is redeeming all of its 8.0% Series A preferred stock, $1.0 billion in total, on 15 October. Preferred stock is a security that pays a fixed dividend ahead of ordinary shareholders. The company said no unpaid dividends were owed.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. September's new notes were announced as a way to do this, so it matches the thesis. A second $1.0 billion of preferred stock comes up for the same choice on 15 December. The view stays Neutral.
TTM told the SEC on 12 October it plans to spend another $400 million expanding five factories, four in China and one in Malaysia, mostly for the advanced boards used in AI data centres. This is on top of the $1.2 billion already promised for 2025 to 2029. It gave no dates, sales goal or funding plan.
What it did to the thesisNothing in our case moved. It shows demand is strong enough for TTM to spend more, but it also adds to debt that is already rising for the Epiq purchase. Management said it will say more on the September-quarter call.
On 14 October the board made Mark Long chief financial officer, and David Weigand left that role. Long ran finance at Western Digital from 2016 to 2019. The filing gives no reason and no new figures.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved in our case. We updated who runs finance. A new finance chief weeks before the 3 November results is worth watching, but the test stays gross margin and cash from operations. View stays Neutral.
Charles Liang founded Super Micro in September 1993 and has been president, chief executive and chairman since; David Weigand has been chief financia…
Venture Global, a US gas exporter, signed a framework with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes for up to 16 gas power units of 720 MW each. It paid to reserve factory space for eight of them, expects its first order by the end of 2026, and may buy the rest until 2027 to 2029.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. It is another reservation, the kind our case needs to turn into firm orders, and it was signed after the September quarter ended. The deal is optional beyond the eight reserved, so it tests nothing until orders follow.
Venture Global told the SEC it signed a framework deal on 9 October with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes for up to 16 power plant units, delivered through 2034. Almost none of it is binding yet. It expects to place the first order by the end of 2026, and neither side must buy or supply more until orders are signed.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. It shows a customer we already track may buy more power equipment, but it adds no order to Baker Hughes' backlog and its share of the work is not stated. Our case turns on the October results.
SentinelOne said it would sell $1.25 billion of convertible notes due 2031 and then announced that they priced at 0% interest. Holders can swap them for shares later. The shares fell 6.4% on the day of the proposal. We could not read the terms, such as the conversion price.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. The raise adds debt to a company that had $813.2M of cash and no borrowing, and may add shares, but the terms are unread. The case rests on new subscriptions growing and stock pay falling, which show in the December results.
Rocket Lab said its new large rocket, Neutron, will now make its first flight in 2027 instead of this year. Reuters reported the shares fell about 6% in after-hours trading. Rocket Lab had already warned that a launch this year was getting less likely. We could read only the first sentence of the announcement, so any new date is unknown.
What it did to the thesisOne claim changed: the end-of-2026 target no longer holds. Our test line is a first flight by mid-2027, which is not yet broken, so the view stays unattractive, mainly on price. The 9 November results should name whether a firm date exists.
Neutron's Stage 1 tank production is currently aligned with a target delivery of the vehicle to the launch pad in Q4 2026, though the window for an e…
Netflix is cutting about 1,000 jobs, around 6% of its staff, mostly in product, technology, legal and human resources. It is the biggest cut since 2022 and comes six days before results on 20 October. Press reports say the two chief executives told staff the full-year forecast is still on track. The Journal article itself could not be opened.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Our case watches the full-year forecast and whether profit margin keeps widening. Fewer staff could help margin, but no savings figure was given and the forecast was only reported secondhand. The 20 October results are the real test.
IonQ sold 50 million new shares at $40 each and gave the buyer warrants, which are rights to buy 100 million more shares at $69.46 within seven years. It raised about $1.99 billion after fees. It had 408.9 million shares before, and the shares fell about 6% to 9% that day.
What it did to the thesisCash roughly doubles, so running out of money is much less likely. But each existing holder owns a smaller slice: 12% more shares at once, up to 37% more with the warrants, plus the Elisity deal. Our case rests on price and dilution, so the view stays.
Cipher priced its $850 million sale of convertible notes, which pay no interest and fall due in November 2032. They convert into shares at about $15.31. It will also hand over about 40.7 million shares to holders of $165.9 million of its 2030 notes. Part of the money buys protection against dilution; the rest goes to Barber Lake and new sites.
What it did to the thesisNothing in the thesis moved yet. More debt and about 40.7 million new shares test our assumption of no large new share issue, but those shares were already counted as possible dilution. The case still turns on Barber Lake rent and new leases, due with 2 November results.
Berkshire announced a further $330M investment in Bending Spoons, the app company, after putting in $600M at its stock-market debut. Headlines put its holding near 4%. We could read only the headlines, not the release or the articles, so the terms are unconfirmed.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. About $0.93B in total is small beside $359.2B of cash and bills and $340.8B of securities. It shows Abel buying a new stock, which we track, but it changes neither the cash pile nor our view of Berkshire.
NioCorp signed a binding agreement with metals trader Traxys, which will buy half the mine's planned niobium alloy for 15 years, paying even if it does not take delivery. The other half is already contracted to ThyssenKrupp. Traxys also gets the exclusive right, but no duty, to buy and sell its other products.
What it did to the thesisPart of our open question is answered: all the niobium alloy now has a buyer. But scandium, the biggest part of the mine's value, still has no buyer bound, and the loan to build is uncommitted. The view stays Neutral.
The only binding sales agreements are two ferroniobium offtakes, each for ten years: 25% of annual output up to 2,067 short tons a year to a US metal…
LightPath said a counter-drone and defence systems supplier placed another $6.3 million order for optical assemblies. That customer has now ordered more than $19 million since July, double its total for the year to June. No profit margin or term was given.
What it did to the thesisLittle moved. It adds to orders we already track, but our case turns on profit margin and backlog at the November results, and an order this size gives neither. The view stays Unattractive.
On 22 July 2026 LightPath announced $13M of follow-on optical assembly orders from a leading counter-UAS and defence systems supplier. In fiscal 2025…
Jabil and India's Adani Enterprises signed a non-binding memorandum, a statement of intent, to build a 50:50 joint venture making AI and data-center equipment in India. It follows a June alliance announcement. No investment, sales figures or start date were given, and definitive agreements are still needed.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Our case already treated the Adani plan as unproven and not before fiscal 2028. The memo adds a 50:50 structure but no money, volume or contract, so it is not yet evidence for AI growth. The view stays Neutral.
IonQ says it will buy Elisity, a company that controls which devices and people can reach a company's network, paying only in new IonQ shares worth up to $1.3 billion, with up to $150 million tied to Elisity's performance. It should close in the fourth quarter. The shares fell about 9% that day.
What it did to the thesisNothing in our view moved yet. The deal adds roughly 6% to 10% more shares, which pushes our share-dilution warning closer without crossing it. Elisity's sales and profit were not disclosed, so we cannot judge the price paid.
Digi Power X says a lender has issued a letter committing $200 million of debt for its 40 MW Alabama data center, to close within 90 days if paperwork and the lender's checks finish. It says no shares were sold under its share-sale programme in the third quarter, and cash is about $135 million.
What it did to the thesisA step toward the funding route our case wants, debt not share sales. But the loan is not signed, its rate and length are not given, and the company still guarantees it until completion. The view stays Unattractive until results on 12 November.
Cipher announced a proposed $850 million private sale of convertible notes that pay no interest and fall due in November 2032, with an option for $150 million more. At the same time it will swap some of its 2030 convertible notes for shares. Price and conversion terms are not yet set.
What it did to the thesisNothing in the thesis moved yet. It adds debt and possibly shares to the funding and dilution claims, but the size and terms are unknown until pricing. The Barber Lake rent start and new leases, due with 2 November results, remain the test.
A shareholder class action was filed alleging Webull understated how much its engineering and data work depends on China, for investors who bought between April 2025 and October 2026. Webull also filed a statement saying US customer data and cash stay in the US and the report cites no misuse.
What it did to the thesisThe suit rests on the committee report we already weighed and orders nothing. Our trigger is a US government action restricting Webull, and none exists. Trading and profit claims did not change, so Neutral holds.
GEO filed the details of what it announced on 6 October: on 15 October it will repay all $650 million of its 2029 bonds for about $678 million, using the Adelanto sale money. Its bank credit line of $550 million now runs to 2031.
What it did to the thesisMost of the $705 million Adelanto money goes to debt, as we assumed, so less is left for buybacks. Debt falls but the business is no bigger, so the price still pays for sales not yet agreed. View stays Neutral.
At 2026-06-30 GEO held $55.0M of cash against about $1.54B of debt: $650M of 8.625% secured notes due 2029, $625M of 10.25% notes due 2031 and $248.9…
GEO's board raised the share repurchase authorization on 2026-10-05 from $500M to $1.25B, effective through 2029-12-31; GEO says it will use the Adel…
SpaceX said it will buy a nationwide block of low-frequency radio spectrum from Grain Management, to make Starlink phone service work indoors. It needs US regulator approval and no price was given. SpaceX says most phones already work on that band. AST shares fell 10.5% on the day.
What it did to the thesisOur view stays Unattractive. We narrowed one claim: AST's edge of working on phones people already own is a shorter window, since SpaceX says this band needs no new phone. No carrier has switched to SpaceX, so no warning sign fired.
The edge AST still holds is broadband on phones people already own: SpaceX's own filing says today's phones lack the radio hardware for its new bands…
SpaceX said it will buy a nationwide block of low-frequency radio spectrum from the investment firm Grain Management, to let Starlink Mobile work indoors. It needs US regulator approval and no price was disclosed. Phone carriers' shares fell on the news.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. It shows SpaceX widening its spending on phone service, on top of the EchoStar spectrum we already track, but without a price we cannot say what it adds to the cash SpaceX owes. November results are the test.
OpenAI told investors its revenue is running at about $50 billion a year, lower than the $68 billion figure reported in late September. A person familiar says the higher number counted partners' gross revenue. OpenAI also reported 77% annual growth. Oracle's shares fell about 5.6% that day, as did other AI names.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Most of Oracle's $664 billion of signed future revenue rests on OpenAI, so its ability to pay matters. A different way of counting revenue is not a missed payment or a cancelled contract. The December results are the test.
OpenAI told investors its yearly sales pace was about $50 billion at the end of September, below a $68 billion figure that had circulated, which counted partners' sales. It also said growth ran at 77% in the quarter. Nvidia, Oracle and CoreWeave shares fell.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. We lean on OpenAI only through the loans Nvidia has guaranteed for its data centres, and our case uses neither figure. It is a reminder that those customers must keep growing. Nvidia's November 17 results are the test.
Bitdeer told the SEC it may buy back up to $100 million of its own shares by October 2028. It also signed a 10-year agreement for a new 67MW AI data centre site in Malaysia, with no customer signed for it yet, and says the deals it is discussing are worth over $10 billion.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. We worry about funding growth by selling new shares, and a buyback of this size does not change that while a $1 billion share-sale programme is open. The new site adds cost before any customer. November 9 results are the test.
OpenAI told investors its revenue runs at about $50 billion a year, below the $68 billion reported last month; the larger number counted partners' gross revenue. Broadcom's shares fell about 4.4%. Bloomberg also said Broadcom is in early talks to finance OpenAI's chips, which repeats yesterday's report.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. We need OpenAI and Anthropic to pay for the chips Broadcom plans. A lower count of OpenAI's revenue does not cancel anything, and financing talks are not a deal. Broadcom's December results should show financing and who backs it.
The US defence department offered Wolfspeed up to $1.5 billion over 30 years, with the first $600 million repaying its costly 2030 notes. Nothing is signed. It needs Congress to fund it, most convertible notes to turn into shares, $750 million of new money from others, and warrants for up to 7.5% of the company.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. It could cut the interest bill but adds shares, and the case still turns on sales passing breakeven. The 4 November results are the test. View stays Unattractive.
On 7 October Unity said it is partnering with Google on a platform where people describe a game in words and get one back. Google's Playground is live now; Unity Spark, built on Unity's engine, follows later this year. The release gives no revenue, cost or contract terms.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. It touches the engine half, which has been shrinking, but without numbers there is nothing to score. The test is whether engine sales stop falling in the November results. The view stays Unattractive.
News outlets say SpaceX is in talks to borrow about $40 billion, mostly investment-grade bonds plus bank loans with Apollo leading, to buy Nvidia chips. SpaceX has not confirmed it. Separately the US communications regulator approved 15,000 more Starlink satellites that connect directly to phones and allowed SpaceX to use its own radio spectrum.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The borrowing is unconfirmed, and if real it would weaken our assumption that spending is paid from the $100 billion raised. The approval lets Starlink offer more services but gives no sales figure. The results in November remain the test.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Oracle is in talks with Apollo and Goldman Sachs. Investors would fund a separate company that buys the chips for a large data centre, and Oracle would lease them over time. Oracle hopes to finish this year. The size is unclear and nothing is signed. The article is paywalled, so details come from summaries.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. Rented chips would not show as Oracle's own cash spending, so the $70 billion spending limit we track could look met while commitments grow. It also points away from new share sales. We will read it against leases and debt, not cash spending alone.
Ondas says it won more than $165 million of orders from mid-August to October 1, which with about $105 million announced in August makes over $270 million since June 30. It named no customers apart from the $56 million European order already reported, and gave no sales figures.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. This is the company's own count of orders, not sales or cash, and our view rests on whether orders turn into the guided revenue. The November quarterly report is the test, so we keep our view.
At its 6 October investor day Marvell said it now expects about $20 billion of sales in the year to January 2028, up from $18 billion in August, and $70 billion to $90 billion in fiscal 2031. We only found news reports of this, not the company's slides.
What it did to the thesisOur case assumed about $18 billion, so a key input moved up, but nothing changes until the company's own slides are read. No dated target for fiscal 2029, the year we asked about, was reported. The view stays Unattractive.
IonQ says it has moved into Stage C, the last stage, of a US defence research agency contest on quantum computers. The agreement is worth up to $300 million, runs through 2029, and money beyond the first payment depends on future government funding. The agency's own announcement and the list of other companies were not found.
What it did to the thesisA step we had listed as good news happened, so we updated the notes. It does not change our view: the worry is the price and the many new shares issued, and neither moved. The amount is a ceiling, not cash received.
DARPA picked 11 companies for Stage B of its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative in November 2025, including IonQ, Quantinuum, IBM, QuEra and Xanadu; it…
A US House committee published a report saying Webull's China links, including engineers in China and how data and customer cash are handled, are a national-security risk. The report orders nothing and carries no fine. Webull says it has significant inaccuracies. The shares fell about 19%. We could not open the report itself, only news accounts.
What it did to the thesisThis is the risk we already listed, now written down by lawmakers. Our trigger is an actual US action that restricts Webull, and none exists, so it is closer but not hit. Trading and profit claims did not change, and Neutral holds.
About 800 of Webull's 1,396 employees work in research and technology, much of it at a development centre in Changsha, China; 14 state attorneys gene…
The Wall Street Journal reports that Broadcom is working to arrange more than $50 billion of financing so lenders can pay for the custom AI chips it builds with OpenAI. Apollo and Blackstone are among those approached. Talks are early, could change, and a deal is hoped for before year-end. The article is behind a paywall, so details come from summaries.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. We want a second funding round led by outside lenders, and this is a step toward one, but nothing is signed. What matters is whether Broadcom guarantees any of it, which the reports do not say. The December results should show.
Arista announced complete liquid-cooled racks that link up to 144 AI processors over Ethernet, and up to 1,024 across racks, plus racks for the wider network between racks. It named partners such as AMD, Broadcom, Meta and Microsoft but no customer, order, price or delivery date. It will show them at a trade event on 12 to 15 October.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Our notes say Arista's chief executive expects little role in the links inside Nvidia's own systems and that moving off Nvidia's technology will take time. This is a product launch to test that, not an order. Results on 3 November are the next check.
Aehr said its lead cloud-computing customer placed more orders for Aehr's Sonoma chip-testing machines, this time for a newer AI processor, its second chip program on those machines. We could only read the headline and a one-line teaser, so the order's size and delivery dates are unknown.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. This customer's repeat orders are already part of our case, and without a dollar figure the news cannot show whether the sales guide is safe. The price already assumes strong growth, so Unattractive holds until bookings are measured on 6 November.
Uber said on 6 October it will buy ezCater, which lets businesses order food from over 140,000 restaurants for meetings and events. The price is $2.3B in cash. ezCater handled over $2.5B of orders in the last twelve months, growing in the high teens, and is profitable.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The deal adds about 1% to Uber's order volume and uses cash while the Delivery Hero purchase is already under way. We watch the cash and debt claims, and the Delivery Hero timing, but the release gives no closing date or financing.
Navitas finished buying Claros, a young company making power delivery that sits right under an AI chip. The filing confirms the closing but not new terms. Navitas says the deal doubles the market it can sell into. Claros revenue and losses are not disclosed.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The cash and new shares were already counted in our case, and the market-size claim is management's own. We still need signed 2027 demand and revenue. The November results are the test.
Navitas agreed to buy Claros, a 2024 start-up making power delivery that sits under the processor, for up to $232.8M: $216.0M at closing in cash and…
The Financial Times reported, and Reuters repeated, that SpaceX is raising $40 billion, about $10 billion of bank loans and $30 billion of bonds led by Apollo, to buy Nvidia chips, closing in 2027. Neither company has confirmed it, and no filing exists. Only press copies could be read.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. It fits demand we already assume and shows a buyer paying with borrowed money, which our financing worry already covers. Unconfirmed, with no Nvidia contract or guarantee reported, it is not evidence for the numbers. November 17 results remain the test.
Ofcom, the UK communications regulator, is investigating whether Meta checked properly for illegal content and child access before launching Instagram Instants. Possible outcomes range from a warning to a fine of up to 10% of global revenue. Meta says it did a risk analysis and will cooperate. Separately, Meta joined a group of firms on a standard for dealing with AI bots; we read only that headline.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. It adds to the legal scrutiny we already track on youth safety, but no finding or fine exists yet. The bot-standard news is a membership, with no revenue figure, so it does not answer our question about AI revenue.
FICO told the SEC it will remove about 15% of its positions, by simplifying layers, tools and using AI in product work. Staff were told from the week of 5 October and the plan should finish by mid-2027. It expects about $27.0M of one-off severance costs this quarter.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Our view turns on the mortgage score price and volume, which this does not touch. Lower costs could lift profit margins later, but the company gave no savings figure, so we wait for the November results.
Google and Constellation announced a long-term deal for 890 megawatts of new nuclear capacity on the grid that serves the mid-Atlantic and Midwest (PJM). Google is the third named buyer after Walmart and Amazon. The announcement could not be opened, so the length, price, start date and whether it is part of the 920 megawatts signed in August are not known.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. Our case needs named, sized power deals to keep arriving, and this is the largest so far. Without terms we cannot say how much it adds beyond the August batch. The next results, due 9 November, should show whether it is new.
Applied Digital said it has secured access to up to 1 gigawatt of potential power in Finland, its first project outside the United States. It is marketing the site and talking to the largest cloud companies, but has no customer signed. More spending depends on demand and approvals. We could only read a news report of the announcement.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Our case rests on already-signed leases in the United States and on whether recurring rent takes over from construction revenue. A Finland site with no customer adds no rent and no cost yet; it is an option, and the results are the test.
Zeta Global says it agreed to buy Senso, which it describes as adding AI engineering and a way to connect to the leading AI models. We could read only the headline. The price, whether it is paid in cash or shares, and how big Senso is were not readable.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. Zeta has paid for several smaller companies already. Until we see the price we cannot say whether it strains the cash Zeta holds or adds to the shares it issues.
The US Energy Department said it will offer Vistra a conditional loan commitment of up to $4.2 billion to expand and modernize its nuclear plants in two states. That matches last weekend's reports. The interest rate, repayment terms and conditions have not been published, and Vistra has filed nothing.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. The thesis already counts nuclear upgrades for the Meta contracts, and cheap government debt could ease paying for them. Until the terms are known we cannot say whether it adds debt or lowers costs. Our view stays Attractive.
Vertiv named Michael Resha, who ran stamping and injection operations at the carmaker Stellantis, to lead its factories, logistics and operational improvement. He replaces Anders Karlborg, who moves to a special projects role. The release gives no reason and no numbers.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Our case watches whether Vertiv delivers its second-half ramp, and it has had execution slips before. A new factory chief is worth noting but says nothing yet about output or margins. The October 28 results are the test.
Teradyne said on 5 October it made a strategic investment in Bright Machines, a company that builds AI and data-centre equipment in small automated factories. The two will look at using Teradyne's robots and test equipment there. No price, stake or order size was given in the text we could read.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The deal touches Teradyne's robotics business, which earned a small loss last quarter, and our case rests on chip testing. Without an amount or an order there is nothing to measure it by, so it waits for the October results.
Navitas and Microchip announced a shared reference design, a blueprint other makers can copy, for 800-volt power in AI data centers. Only the headline could be read. No order, volume or date is known.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. A blueprint is a step toward sales, not a sale. Our case needs signed 2027 demand and revenue that has not yet arrived. The November results are the test.
Stockholders of the chip startup Groq sued Nvidia, alleging they were shortchanged when Nvidia paid $20 billion to license Groq's technology and hire its people. Only the headline could be read. A video also recapped Nvidia's $235 billion buyback, announced September 28.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The Justice Department is already examining the same deal, and a private suit adds legal risk we cannot size without the complaint. The buyback is old news already in our numbers. The November 17 results are the test.
Norway temporarily banned using camera glasses, including Meta's, in places such as parks, schools and beaches. Sale of the glasses is still allowed. Separately, Meta, TikTok and X are contesting the UK regulator's demands for data about their services. We read the Norway article in full and only the UK headline.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The glasses earned $431M last quarter against a $4.6B loss in that unit, and a use restriction in one country does not change that. The UK case adds to the legal scrutiny we already track; no penalty or figure is attached.
Elon Musk said talks are under way for TSMC to join Terafab, his Texas chip venture whose named manufacturing process is Intel's. He called them 'just discussions'. Intel shares fell about 2.6% the next session. Only a headline and a second outlet's copy could be read.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Our case already assumes Intel has no named outside customer with committed volume, so a possible rival at Terafab removes hope rather than a fact. It leans the same way as our Unattractive view, and the October results are the real test.
IES Holdings and the seller, INNOVATE, each announced on 5 October that IES has finished buying DBM Global, a steel and modular builder. We could read only the headlines. The final price, any change to the terms and the exact closing date were not readable, and IES has not yet filed its closing report.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved in our view. We already counted the purchase at about $685 million. What changed is wording: the deal is done, so the seller's right to walk away has lapsed. DBM's profit now counts inside IES, and the first results that show it come in 2027.
IES agreed on 10 August 2026 to buy DBM Global for about $685M, $545M in cash and $140M in shares.
Either side can walk away from the DBM purchase without a fee if it has not closed by 8 February 2027, or 8 August 2027 if regulators are still revie…
GEO sold three Adelanto, California centres with 2,644 beds to the Department of Homeland Security for $950 million, about $359,300 a bed. It expects $705 million after tax and fees, will keep running them under its ICE contract, and raised its share buyback limit to $1.25 billion.
What it did to the thesisThis is the sale our view was waiting on, at a better price a bed than CoreCivic got. It covers about 38% of what the share price counts on, and no further sale is agreed, so the view stays Neutral.
CoreCivic says the four sales averaged about $307,000 a bed; GEO sold its 2,388-bed Lawton prison to Oklahoma in 2025 for $312M, about $131,000 a bed.
GEO says it is in an active process to sell several turnkey facilities to ICE and keep operating them, with ICE re-procuring four sites; no agreement…
By 2026-09-27 GEO had filed no 8-K reporting a sale, and Clearfield County extended the Moshannon Valley agreement only to mid-March 2027, on a 2-1 v…
The shares closed at $13.26 on 2026-02-20 and $31.22 on 2026-09-25; the 52-week range is $12.51 to $33.15.
At $31.22 enterprise value is about $5.60B; that is 10.8 times trailing Adjusted EBITDA of $519.4M and 10.1 times the $555M 2026 guidance midpoint; t…
At the old 7 times, $555M supports about $3.9B of enterprise value, about $18 a share; the $1.7B gap is what about 7,600 beds would net at CoreCivic'…
BWXT says its BANR microreactor, a small reactor built in a factory and moved by rail, ship or truck, was chosen for a Canadian transportable nuclear plant project. We could read only the headline: who the customer is, how many reactors, and whether any money is committed were not readable.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. Our case already counts the US Army's choice of BANR. A selection is not an order, so the claim that BWXT may win a new-build order by year-end is untested until the terms are read.
A filing on 5 October shows Berkshire's insurance subsidiaries bought about $193M of homebuilder Lennar's shares on 1 and 2 October, at $77 to $82 each. They now hold 28.4M Class A shares. Barron's puts Berkshire's stake at 12%. Three earlier Berkshire filings on Lennar were made in September.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. It is about $0.19B against $340.8B of investments, so it changes neither the cash pile nor the biggest holdings in our case. It does show Abel putting cash to work in a stock, which we track, but one stake does not settle that.
Baker Hughes announced on 5 October that it signed two Venezuela agreements: an alliance with the state oil company and two partners to build a gas business from wells to LNG exports, and a memorandum with New Stratus Energy on future oil and gas projects. As we read it, no dollar value, order or date was given.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Neither deal is an order, and the alliance needs separate project agreements first. Our case turns on equipment orders and margins in the October results, so this is a possible future customer, not evidence.
Adeia says it renewed the patent licence it holds with Spectrum, the cable and internet brand of Charter. We could read only the headline. The length of the deal, which patents it covers and what Spectrum pays were not readable.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Charter was already on our list of licensed customers, and a renewal fits management's claim that most customers renew. Without the terms we cannot tell whether the payments rose or fell.
The company said on 5 October it finished its third programme of selling new shares on the open market. It sold 5,694,845 shares at an average $105.36 and kept $588.0M after fees. It plans to spend the money on equipment and machinery for production and research.
What it did to the thesisThe case already counted dilution as a cost, so nothing moved. The share count is now about 90.3M against the 100M line in our criteria, and the money lowers the funding risk while each existing holder owns a smaller slice of the business.
Shares outstanding rose from 75,198,817 on 24 February 2026 to 84,569,237 on 3 August 2026, 12.5% in five months, after selling about 7.78M shares at…
Reuters and Bloomberg, quoting unnamed sources, say the US Energy Department will lend Vistra about $4.2 billion to squeeze more output from three of its four nuclear plants. The Energy Secretary is expected to announce it on Monday. Neither Vistra nor the department has confirmed it, and no terms are public.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. The thesis already counts nuclear uprates for the Meta contracts, and cheap government debt could ease how they are paid for, but without terms or confirmation nothing in the ledger can be changed.
Powell's financial year ended on 30 September. The results are not out until 17 November, so the last forecast management made about margins cannot yet be checked against a full year.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The case rests on backlog and margins, and the first full-year check is the November report, which is already our next test.
The count of analysts rating Chime was re-read from the data vendor. It shows 16 saying buy, 1 saying hold and none saying sell, up from 13 buy and 1 hold in August.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The ratings were a side fact our case does not rest on; the view still waits for November's results to show the margin the company has promised.
Tesla said it delivered 486,532 vehicles from July to September, 1.3% more than the spring quarter but 2.1% fewer than a year ago. It built 464,391, so it sold more than it made again, and it installed 13.7 gigawatt-hours of storage batteries. It will report profits on 21 October.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved in our view. After a 25% jump last quarter, sales have stalled rather than kept climbing, but the release says nothing on profit margin or self-driving income, which is what our case turns on. The 21 October results are the test.
Reuters reports Apple will warn users when AI apps ask for Mac data, after complaints about Meta's new Muse app, which a journalist said read his private messages after he denied access. Meta's AI chief called its first explanation inaccurate. A Dutch glasses chain also stopped selling Meta's glasses over privacy. We read only headlines for both Reuters items.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Both items are privacy friction around new AI products, and no sales figure for Muse or the glasses exists to measure it. Our case rests on advertising growth and the spending bill, which the October results test.
The FDA approved Lilly's cancer pill Jaypirca for adults with chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma who have not been treated before and lack a 17p deletion. In a trial of 282 patients it cut the risk of the disease progressing by 80% compared with chemotherapy plus rituximab. Until now it was used only after other treatments.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Jaypirca sold $192 million last quarter, part of the growth beyond the two big weight-loss medicines. A wider label could grow it, but no sales figure came with the approval and our tests are volume against price and the 29 October results.
First Solar, a rival solar panel maker, says it sued American Panel Solutions, a Corning subsidiary, and China's JA Solar for patent infringement. Only the article's first paragraph was readable, so the patents, damages and demands are unknown.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Corning's solar arm lost $7 million on $438 million of sales in Q2, and this does not change the optical-fibre case. It is a possible legal cost to watch, with no amount known.
Flowco closed its purchase of Lifting Solutions of Edmonton, which makes continuous rod and progressing cavity pumps for oil wells in Canada, the US and the Middle East. It paid about $113 million cash, borrowed on its revolving credit line, with up to C$10 million more depending on 2027 results. Management puts the price near 5 times expected 2027 earnings.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The purchase was paid in cash and borrowing, not new shares, which is what our share-count assumption needed. It adds new lift types and about 10% of sales outside the US. Its size will first show in the 11 November results.
Bloomberg reported on 2 October that Blackstone and banks have gathered $60 billion for a Broadcom AI chip deal. In August, outlets said Broadcom was seeking more than $60 billion so investors can buy its chips and lease them to Anthropic. We read only the new headline, so the lenders, terms and Broadcom's share of the risk are unknown.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. It looks like the financing we already track, and it does not say Broadcom has paid anything or been lent anything. It bears on our pending test of whether a second financing closes with an outside lead, which still needs the filing.
Applied Digital said another 75 megawatts of capacity at its Polaris Forge 1 campus in North Dakota is ready for customers, bringing the fully leased campus to 250 megawatts working. We could only read a news report quoting the announcement, not the announcement itself.
What it did to the thesisIt shows capacity being delivered on schedule, which our case needs, but it is one phase of a campus already leased. Nothing moved: the real test is next week's results, on whether recurring rent is overtaking construction pass-through revenue.
Amazon's cloud chief published a long post warning that freezes on new data centres would hurt the US for generations, saying over 100 are being considered locally. He announced more than $1 billion over five years for towns that host Amazon's data centres. Amazon withdrew a Maryland site in August.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Local resistance is one more sign that building capacity is getting harder, which we already track. The $1 billion is about 0.5% of the roughly $220 billion Amazon plans to spend this year. The 29 October results still decide the view.
A SpaceX rocket took off from California on 1 October carrying more than 100 small payloads. One was a Planet Labs satellite holding a Google AI chip, the first Google has sent to space, to test whether it works there. SpaceX only provided the ride; no price or contract was reported. Google calls its orbital-computing plan a long-term moonshot.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. It is an outside customer on a launch business that mostly carries SpaceX's own satellites, and it adds no revenue figure. Our case rests on Starlink and the cloud contracts, so Google's orbit tests only matter if they later become a signed launch order.
Ouster announced that Seneca, a California company building self-flying firefighting drones, will use Ouster's Rev8 lidar sensor for navigation in smoke and rough terrain. The announcement gave no number of sensors, no order value and no start date. It also repeats that the sensor meets American-made sourcing rules.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. It names one more user of the Rev8 sensor, but without an order size it adds nothing to revenue or margin. The November results, which test gross margin and Rev8 volume, remain the next real check on the case.
After winning a jury trial over how Facebook handled users' data, New Mexico asked a judge on 1 October to make Meta pay $35 billion to $40 billion. Meta argued for at most $3.45 billion and hinted it would appeal. The judge said he would decide by late October. Reuters's story could not be read, so local newspaper reports were used.
What it did to the thesisThe legal-risk part of our case was updated with both figures. Nothing moved in the view: this is a request, not a ruling, and the state's ask is below the $62.85 billion we already carried. The view stays Attractive, conviction Medium. A ruling is due before the 28 October results.
Meta's June 2026 quarter release warns that 'we continue to see scrutiny on youth-related issues in several markets and have a number of youth-relate…
First Solar sued JA Solar, a Chinese panel maker, and American Panel Solutions, a US panel seller, in a Delaware federal court. It says they use a method for making a type of silicon solar cell that First Solar owns a patent on. Only second-hand copies of the announcement could be read.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. We said on 15 September that the company would pursue patent suits in court, and this is one. Our case rests on the import price floor and a US manufacturing tax credit, not on winning patent cases, so the view stays Attractive, conviction Medium.
Reports of Anthropic's confidential IPO document say Broadcom could lend it up to $42 billion, about a third of its $125.2 billion five-year chip-computing commitment, with the loan possibly convertible into Anthropic shares. Anthropic says it does not expect the notes to be sold before its listing, and warns that Broadcom being both supplier and lender could create conflicts.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Broadcom's own September filing already described this $42 billion facility, and nothing has been lent or paid. The new part is Anthropic's side, and it is a reminder of how much 2027 growth rests on one customer's ability to pay.
The Financial Times reports Amazon has asked investors about moving about $8 billion of Nvidia AI chips into a separate company. That company would borrow from outside investors and rent the chips back to Amazon, and Amazon would offer up to 10% of its ownership. Amazon has not confirmed it, and we could not read the FT itself.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Management said more financing was coming, and we had noted this kind of structure as a possibility. It is small against the roughly $220 billion Amazon plans to spend this year, and it would hide spending, not remove the bill. The 29 October results still decide the view.
Applied Materials and Besi, a Dutch maker of machines that join chips together, widened a partnership begun in 2020. Besi will work inside Applied's new research centre in California on ways to stack and connect AI chips. The release gives no orders, revenue, price or timetable for any product.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. It adds another partner to a research programme our file already counts at 11, and it shows Applied pushing into chip packaging, which management says is growing fast. No sale, customer or money figure came with it, so it does not test our view.
Affirm's shares have fallen about 9% since we wrote the thesis, to $70.43, and more analysts now rate it a buy: 28, up from 24, with none saying sell. The company published nothing new, so we only brought our price and analyst figures up to date.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. On normal earnings a buyer now pays about 69 times profit instead of 76, still a price that assumes Affirm's first profitable year keeps growing for years. The November results are still the real test.
Annualizing FY2026 pretax income ($492.7 million, from C04) at a normalized effective tax rate of about 27.5% (the midpoint of management's guided mi…
Analyst consensus as of 2026-08-30 was 24 buy, 10 hold and 1 sell - a strong net Buy, and markedly more bullish than the split this repo's SOFI thesi…
AFRM last traded at $77.76, implying a market capitalization of approximately $26.0 billion and a trailing-twelve-month GAAP price-to-earnings ratio…
Shareholders of Iridium, the satellite company Rocket Lab is buying, voted to approve the deal: 85.9 million votes for, 0.3 million against. Separately, Rocket Lab announced its biggest commercial order for its small Electron rocket, 20 launches for Synspective, but the announcement could not be opened, so we know no price or dates.
What it did to the thesisThe vote clears one of four hurdles for the Iridium deal; the US telecoms regulator's review, running to 9 November, is still open. The launch order's size is unknown, so it moves nothing yet. Our view stays unattractive on price.
The Iridium merger requires Iridium stockholder approval, HSR clearance, FCC consent to transfer Iridium's licenses and an effective Form S-4. The HS…
At its investor day on 29 September, Ooma said its copper-line replacement box, AirDial, is growing about 70% a year. A broker's report of the day puts its yearly subscription sales at about $20M, roughly 7% of Ooma's total. Canadian carrier TELUS will start reselling it in 2027 to a base of up to 300,000 lines, though it has not committed to any number.
What it did to the thesisNothing in our view moved. AirDial's size, our biggest unknown, came in about where we estimated: real and fast-growing, but small. TELUS is a promising sales channel without a committed order. Ooma's own growth and the price still decide the view.
Management says AirDial service revenue grew 75% in Q2 fiscal 2027 and 80% in Q1, but Ooma does not disclose AirDial revenue or lines.
Management's long-term goal is 300,000 AirDial lines earning $100M a year, about $28 a line a month; it gives no date.
AirDial is still small: its service revenue is probably no more than about $7M a quarter, under 10% of revenue.
At its 2026-09-29 Investor Day, management reported AirDial recurring revenue up 70%, a TELUS resale partnership in Canada targeting up to 300,000 li…
Nu told the SEC on 30 September that it is not pursuing a deal with Monzo, a British bank. A news report on 26 September had said talks were under way at about 10 billion pounds, and Nu's shares fell 10.0% the next trading day. Nu said its priorities and its rules for spending capital are unchanged.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The denial removes a possible large purchase that our case did not include. It leaves the US entry and the buyback in place, and the share price drop on the report was about a deal that is now denied.
The US Commerce Department and South Korea picked NextEra's power-development arm and Related Companies to build Project Star in Texas: 6.47 gigawatts of gas-fired power for a neighbouring 5-gigawatt data-center campus, costing $22 billion or more. Korea and the US would own it jointly. How much NextEra puts in, and when, was not stated.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. It resembles the Japan-funded gas build already in our case, which NextEra has not yet turned into signed terms. The release gives no NextEra investment, return or start date, so it adds a project to watch and no figure to the argument.
Lilly reported two studies. Its weight-loss pill Foundayo was no worse for the heart than insulin in 2,749 people with type 2 diabetes, with a 16% lower risk that was not statistically clear. A trial of tirzepatide with a second medicine, eloralintide, found 23.3% weight loss in 48 weeks.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Both studies add to what could replace today's biggest product later, but neither changes a dated filing, a sales figure or the October results test. The view stays Neutral.
At an investor event, HPE said its networking business should grow 17% to 22% next year at a profit margin in the high 20s, up from earlier guidance. It raised its target for savings from the Juniper purchase to $800 million a year from $600 million, and said a cloud company, Vultr, ordered $1.2 billion of AI server racks.
What it did to the thesisThese are promises, not results. Networking grew only 10% last quarter, so the new outlook is a big step up still to be shown. The order has no delivery dates. Nothing in our view moved; the December results are the test.
Management reports Juniper cost savings on track for a $600M annual run rate by the end of fiscal 2028, and net leverage of 1.8 times, below its own…
Constellation announced a 20-year deal to sell Amazon 190 megawatts of power from its Calvert Cliffs nuclear plant in Maryland. Amazon is the second named buyer after Walmart. The announcement itself could not be opened, so the price, the start date and whether this is part of the 920 megawatts signed in August are not known.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved yet. Our case rests on named, sized power deals continuing to arrive, and this is one, but without terms we cannot say how much it adds. The next quarterly results, due 9 November, should show whether it is new.
ACM Research's Chinese subsidiary said its order backlog, the value of tools ordered but not yet counted as sales, was 17.1 billion yuan (about $2.5 billion) on 29 September. That is 88.2% more than a year earlier. The company warns that the measure is its own and may not match other firms'.
What it did to the thesisIt supports management's claim of fast order growth, but the figure does not say which products the orders are for. Our view rests on cleaning sales rebounding and two newer product lines winning orders, so nothing moved. The November results remain the test.
Tesla signed three bank credit lines worth $30 billion in total, according to a filing on 29 September: a $20 billion three-year loan it can draw in stages, an $8 billion five-year line and a $2 billion one-year line. The filing does not say any of it has been borrowed. Tesla may use it for general corporate purposes.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The lines show Tesla expects to keep spending heavily, which fits our note that cash flow turned negative, but they report no sales or profit. Our case turns on the 28 October results. We still find the shares unattractive, with medium confidence.
Talen picked its President, Terry Nutt, to be chief executive from 1 January 2027; the current CEO retires. It also agreed to buy back $1.5 billion of its own shares at once, paid for by selling about $1.5 billion of future power-capacity income to Citi. The company says debt will fall to its target in late 2027.
What it did to the thesisOur view held. Debt is a central worry, and this defers cash from later years to shareholders now, so the debt claim is noted, not changed. We still need a second signed customer and falling debt at a results report.
Talen targets net leverage below 3.5x net debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA; as of July 31, 2026, total available liquidity was approximately $1.9B ($525M unre…
Since the start of 2024, Talen has repurchased approximately 15 million shares of common stock for a total of approximately $2.3 billion (including 5…
Bitdeer's AI cloud arm said customers have committed to more than 70% of the capacity at its 21.7-megawatt A201 site in Malaysia. Only the headline could be read. A filing the same day shows it has sold about $8.4 million of new shares since 10 August.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. A201 is small next to 1,752 megawatts, and the terms are unknown. Our case turns on whether the Tydal project is funded without new shares. The small share sales fit that view but do not settle it.
Soluna said Bitdeer, a bitcoin mining company, will place about 7 MW more of its own mining machines at the Kati 1 site, for about 35 MW in total, finishing in November 2026. Soluna supplies the site and power and shares the bitcoin mined. The copy filed with the SEC is stamped as a draft.
What it did to the thesisSmall change to one fact: Bitdeer's share of Kati 1 grew. It is bitcoin mining, not AI, so it does not touch what holds our view down: no AI tenant has signed and the company still pays for growth by selling shares.
Bitdeer agreed in August 2026 to place about 28 MW of its own mining machines at Kati 1 and share the bitcoin they produce with Soluna, which supplie…
NetApp said it plans to buy PEAK:AIO, a company selling storage software for AI. At its yearly conference it also announced a cloud storage service with Oracle, a wider deal with SAP, and a Supermicro collaboration. We could read only the headlines, so we know no prices, sizes or sales.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. This is NetApp pushing further into AI storage, where newer rivals are strong, but with no numbers it cannot show that its growth is its own rather than higher memory prices. The view stays Unattractive and confidence Medium.
Meta hired CJ Desai, who ran the database company MongoDB, to lead a new push selling AI tools to businesses. MongoDB's shares fell about 16 to 18 percent on the news. Separately, Meta will rent AI computing capacity in Southeast Asia from Australia's Firmus. No revenue, price or spending amount was given for either.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. We are waiting to see whether Meta puts a revenue number on its business AI products and how much it spends on computing. The hire shows intent and the Firmus deal shows demand for computing, but neither is a result. The October 28 report remains the test.
AT&T and Corning announced a multi-year agreement worth more than $3 billion. Corning will supply the fibre and cable AT&T needs to expand its network to more homes. The release gives no start date, length, volume or price, and Corning has not said how much of the value is new business.
What it did to the thesisIt fits our case: Corning says its capacity growth is backed by signed long-term buyers, and AT&T is another named one after Verizon, Meta and Amazon. It says nothing about profit margin or the share-issuing worry, so the view stays Unattractive, Medium conviction.
FTAI bought 27 Boeing 737-700 passenger jets from Canadian airline WestJet. Seventeen stay leased to WestJet through FTAI's new investor-funded vehicle; the other ten are empty and will be broken up for their CFM56-7B engines, which FTAI repairs and sells. No price was given. The release was read through a summary, not directly.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. It fits the story that engines are scarce and FTAI is stocking up, but without a price we cannot say what it adds to profit. The real test is the 26 October results: the parts business's margin and its first new-turbine delivery.
Adeia named Dipti Vachani as its new chief executive, starting 12 October. She spent nearly 30 years in chips, most recently running a car-chip licensing unit at Arm. The outgoing chief executive, Paul Davis, who left for health reasons, stays on as a paid consultant until the end of December.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved in our view. The leadership question is now answered, but the case rests on royalties from two unsigned customers and a price that already assumes a recovery. The November results are the first real test, and she will not yet have run that quarter.
Chief executive Paul Davis announced on 4 May 2026 that he will step down by Q4 2026 for health reasons and remain until a successor is appointed; on…
The EU committee that could let Tesla sell its driver-supervised Full Self-Driving in every EU country will not vote on it at its 6 October meeting. Its published agenda gives the Dutch request 25 minutes of 'continuation of discussions'. The committee has no later meeting on the EU's register yet, and Reuters reports December as the earliest chance.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Our case waits on Tesla reporting what self-driving actually earns, and Tesla reports no such sales anywhere, so a delay in Europe changes nothing we can measure. We still find the shares unattractive, with medium confidence, and the next test is the 28 October results.
On September 25 a New Mexico jury found that Meta misled the state's residents about data privacy after the Cambridge Analytica scandal. No penalty is set; Meta's own filing says the state wants up to $62.85B. The same day, a researcher found a flaw in Meta's new Muse assistant that could expose personal data, and Meta added a warning; glasses owners can now keep camera requests out of AI training.
What it did to the thesisOur view holds: Attractive, medium conviction. We had assumed legal costs stay near today's size; a penalty near $62.85B would break that, but none is set. Separately, the shares rose 34.5% since we measured them, so we re-measured: still the cheapest rival on profit, now fairly priced, not cheap.
Meta's June 2026 quarter release warns that 'we continue to see scrutiny on youth-related issues in several markets and have a number of youth-relate…
Insider activity in Meta comprised 15 Form 4 filings with zero open-market purchases and 15 open-market sales. The chief financial officer sold on Au…
At a reference price of $559.02 Meta trades at 17.5 times trailing enterprise value to operating profit against a comparable-peer median of 32.25 - A…
Meta's trailing operating margin of 38.1% is the highest of the comparable cohort against a median of 28.2% - Alphabet 33.1%, Reddit 28.2%, Snap nega…
As of the research pack date Meta traded at $559.02, 29.31% below its 252-day high of $790.80 and 7.45% above its 252-day low of $520.26, at 14.3% of…
Meta's research pack raises no errors and its vendor-versus-filings cross-check reports a gap of exactly 0.0% on both annual revenue and annual opera…
Short interest in META was 28,807,174 shares at the August 31, 2026 settlement, up 2.71% from 28,048,106 a fortnight earlier - 1.31% of a float of 2,…
US regulators approved Lilly's Olumiant, a daily pill, for teenagers aged 12 and over with severe alopecia areata, a disease that makes hair fall out. In the trial, 42% of teenagers on the higher dose had at least 80% of their scalp covered with hair after 36 weeks, against 5% on a dummy pill. Lilly does not report Olumiant's sales on their own.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Olumiant sits in a group of immunology medicines that brought in $561 million last quarter, 2.4% of Lilly's $22,974 million, while one drug, tirzepatide, made 64.7%. A wider label for a small product cannot change that, so the view stays Neutral with Medium conviction.
GMF AeroAsia, Indonesia's largest aircraft-maintenance shop, agreed to keep repair capacity free for FTAI's CFM56 jet engines, and for the small extra power units planes carry, for five years. It already repairs engines for FTAI. No volume, price or value was given, and FTAI filed nothing with the US securities regulator. The shares fell 8.2% in the week with no stated cause.
What it did to the thesisFigures updated; the view held at Neutral, Medium conviction. More repair capacity helps FTAI deliver the engine parts it has promised, but says nothing about what each one earns. The real test is the 26 October results: the parts business's profit margin and its first new-module delivery.
At $190.74 on 18 September 2026 the enterprise value is about $22.7 billion: about 27 times the vendor's trailing operating profit - FTAI tags no ope…
The frozen pack's analyst panel shows 18 Buy, no Hold and no Sell, its monthly rating series ten analysts all positive for twelve readings to 1 Septe…
Over the six months to 18 September 2026 the shares fell 20.6% while trailing revenue per diluted share rose 23.9%, so the multiple paid for each dol…
The full filing for the Personalis purchase sets how many new shares Tempus issues: about 18.5 million at the 24 September share price, and up to 31.5 million if Tempus's price falls to $48.42, against the 26 million we had written. Paying up to half in cash instead would cost about $762 million, more than Tempus's $599.6 million of cash.
What it did to the thesisWe corrected the deal claims and added the new shares; the view held, and we still find the shares unattractive. More shares mean each holder owns less of the company without changing what it earns, and the price still needs profit margins Tempus has never earned.
Tempus agreed on 20 July 2026 to buy Personalis for $16.25 a share, about $1.5B of enterprise value, entirely in its own stock unless it elects up to…
A New York federal court gave final approval to SolarEdge's $55 million settlement of an old shareholder lawsuit and closed the case. The money came from the company's insurers, who had already paid it in. The June quarterly report already said so: $55.0 million of the money set aside for legal claims is this case, matched by $55.0 million owed by insurers.
What it did to the thesisFigures updated; the view held. The filing shows as fact, with corrected figures, what we had inferred. A lawsuit insurers paid does not touch why we find the shares unattractive: profit leans on a manufacturing credit the company has never sized, and its data-centre product has no named customer.
At June 30, 2026 SolarEdge's provision for legal claims was $68.7M against $13.2M at December 31, 2025, alongside a new insurance recovery receivable…
Six top officers, including the chief executive and the finance chief, sold 98,037 shares between them at about $33.96 each. Every filing says the shares were sold to pay tax on stock pay that had just become theirs. Over the past year, 95.0% of the shares company insiders sold went through selling plans set up months in advance.
What it did to the thesisFigures updated; the argument did not move. Selling to pay tax says nothing about the business, so only our record of insider selling was redone. The share price has risen 15.7% since we wrote the case, so it now assumes sales growing 40.7% a year for five years, not 38.4%.
Net of about $454M of cash and with no debt, buyers are paying about $2.12B for Ouster - roughly 9.7 times annualised Q2 revenue and about 24.9 times…
Ouster closed at $35.75 on 25 August 2026, 44.0% below its 252-day high of $63.79 and 118.0% above its low of $16.40. It has returned 20.3% over 252…
In the window to 19 August 2026 Ouster insiders filed eight open-market sales worth about $3.5M at prices between $44.65 and $47.09 and no purchases.…
At its Connect conference Meta launched Muse, an AI assistant app; AI glasses with no camera; and Muse Charm, a $1,299 AI pendant. Amazon blocked Muse from its shopping pages, while Shopify, PayPal and Instacart agreed to let it work on theirs. Meta gave no sales, unit or usage figures for any of it.
What it did to the thesisNothing changed. We already accept that Reality Labs, Meta's devices arm, keeps losing money and that its heavy spending may not pay off. These launches are that bet, with no sales figure attached. We test the core advertising business at the next quarterly report. Still Attractive, Medium conviction.
Vertiv agreed to buy King Environmental Services, a firm near Dublin that flushes, tests and sets up the liquid-cooling systems in data centres. It takes a similar business Vertiv bought in December 2025 into Europe, and is the seventh deal in that run. The price was not disclosed; Vertiv says it is too small to matter to its results.
What it did to the thesisNothing changed, because the deal is too small and too vague to test our case. Our view rests on the share price against profit and on growth Vertiv makes without buying it; a small bought-in business only adds to a count of deals our case already tracks.
Tesla started paid rides in Austin with the Cybercab, a robotaxi with no steering wheel, pedals or mirrors; the US road-safety regulator called it a small number of cars. The same day the regulator opened an audit of how Tesla certified an estimated 1,000 Cybercabs as meeting every federal safety standard, and ordered sworn answers by 30 September.
What it did to the thesisWe added the audit as a new claim and widened the risks it touches; the view held, and we still find the shares unattractive. The price pays for a self-driving software business that reports no sales. The launch brought no fleet count, and the audit adds a new question.
The regulator has two open investigations covering more than three million vehicles. EA26002, opened 18 March 2026, covers an estimated 3,203,754 veh…
Tenable borrowed $800 million through notes due 2031 paying 0.25% interest, which pay out partly in shares if the stock rises above about $44.84. It used the money to repay its $358.1 million bank loan and to buy back 5.3 million of its own shares for $170.5 million. Its debt minus cash rises from about $60 million to about $316 million.
What it did to the thesisWe corrected the claims about the balance sheet, which had described a loan now repaid; our Neutral view held. Our doubts are about paying staff in shares, keeping customers and growth, and the borrowing touches none of them. It keeps the buyback going, with $800 million due in 2031.
Tenable repurchased 11.4 million shares for about $230M in the first half of 2026 at an average of $20.23, and had $108M left on the authorisation at…
The balance sheet is close to neutral: a $353.0M term loan against $298.2M of cash and short-term investments, with a first lien net leverage ratio o…
Tempus called its Recursion deal an extension, but Recursion's own filing shows this data customer's yearly fee falling from $42 million to $14 million, and Tempus paying Recursion $12 million for one of its models. A filing for the Personalis purchase shows Tempus's own plan for that business losing money until 2030. The chief executive said Medicare pricing on one test adds $80 million to $100 million from January.
What it did to the thesisWe added three new claims; the view held, and we still find the shares unattractive. The price needs profit margins Tempus has never earned, and both filings sharpen that worry. The one hopeful figure is the chief executive's, found in no filing and not in the company's forecast.
To pay the cash part of its deal to buy Iridium, Rocket Lab sold about 29.3 million new shares for about $1.944 billion. Iridium's lenders agreed to keep its $1.775 billion of loans in place, so a $3.6 billion short-term loan was cancelled unused. The US telecoms regulator, the FCC, opened its review of the deal.
What it did to the thesisClaims on the funding and share count were corrected; we still find the shares unattractive. The deal is less likely to fail for lack of money but no cheaper per existing share, and the company is now valued at about 52 times a year's sales, up from 44.
Common shares outstanding rose from 543,574,552 (December 31, 2025) to 598,180,438 (June 30, 2026), and total shares outstanding (including preferred…
The Iridium merger requires Iridium shareholder approval (vote scheduled 2026-09-24), HSR clearance (lapsed as of 2026-08-13), FCC consent to transfe…
Over the trailing 365 days, officer Form 4 filings showed 252 open-market sales and zero open-market purchases; the COO and CFO both sold shares betw…
At the 2026-09-01 close, Rocket Lab's enterprise value is approximately 44 times trailing-twelve-month revenue.
Total funded debt today is minimal (about $13.1 million of convertible notes plus $1.7 million of other borrowings), but Rocket Lab has obtained fina…
On August 13, 2026, Rocket Lab replaced its equity distribution program with an ATM offering of up to $1,944,369,826 (the unsold amount under the pri…
DuPont, Chemours and Corteva settled North Carolina's claims over PFAS chemicals and other pollution from the Fayetteville Works plant. Qnity pays 44% of DuPont's after-tax cost in old cases like this, and its share stays at the $43 million it had already set aside in the second quarter, so there is no new charge.
What it did to the thesisNothing changed, because the case settled at the amount already set aside, inside the $253 million of old liabilities our case already counts. It closes one case of several; Qnity's open-ended 44% share of the rest, the real risk, is untouched.
Nielsen, which measures TV viewing, found Netflix had 7.8% of American TV time in July, against 8.8% a year earlier. June was also below a year earlier, so that is two falls in a row. YouTube hit a record 14.2%. Separately, the shares fell 12.9% from when we wrote our view, so they now cost about $24 for each dollar of profit the company forecasts for 2026.
What it did to the thesisWe updated price figures and one line: Netflix's TV share is now below a year earlier, not just off its peak. A third straight fall would trip one of our tests for being wrong. Still Neutral, Medium conviction: two falls is not three, and cheaper is not yet cheap.
Trailing diluted earnings per share of $3.18 include about $0.53 from the termination fee after tax, so at $81.89 the price is about $31 for each $1…
Nielsen measured YouTube at 13.8% of United States television watch-time in May 2026, the largest share of any distributor for a third consecutive mo…
Netflix's measured share of United States television time has not advanced since its December 2025 peak: Nielsen put it at 8.0% in May 2026 and repor…
At $81.89 the equity is about $349B and enterprise value about $354B, so Netflix's own 2026 guide of about $16.1B of operating profit and about $12.6…
Nielsen measured streaming at 48.6% of total United States television watch-time in May 2026, up 1.0 percentage point on the month, against broadcast…
The shares closed at $81.89 on 25 August 2026, down 32.0% over 252 sessions and 35.4% below the 252-day high of $126.71, with a trailing price of abo…
The analyst panel the research pack aggregates stands at 63 buy, 30 hold and 6 sell, with no strong sells, and its consensus label is Buy.
Shareholders of NextEra and Dominion both approved their merger by wide margins, with 99.47% of NextEra's votes in favour. To win over Virginia officials, the pair enlarged their offer, stretching a $10-a-month household bill credit from two years to four. Virginia's consumer lawyers want the state's 180-day review restarted. Separately, the US government agreed a loan of up to $1.9 billion to restart the Duane Arnold nuclear plant.
What it did to the thesisFacts were updated; nothing was re-judged. The vote is done and only regulators remain. Even a restarted Virginia review ends about March 2027, before the planned late-2027 completion. The view stays Neutral with Medium conviction, held there by shares valued above similar regulated utilities, which none of this touches.
The combined company proposes $2.25B in total bill credits for Dominion Energy's customers in Virginia (~79%), South Carolina (~17%) and North Caroli…
Closing requires both companies' shareholder approvals, HSR Act clearance, and regulatory clearances from FERC, the NRC, the Virginia SCC, the North…
NEER remains on track to bring the previously shut Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa back online no later than Q1 2029; the Iowa Utilities Commissio…
Helios bought some assets of Radio Sound, which makes audio electronics for vehicles, mainly its technology and designs. With it came a contract lasting several years to supply electronics to Indian Motorcycle. Helios says the deal is too small to matter to its results and gave no price, contract value, volume or length. It filed no formal notice with the US securities regulator.
What it did to the thesisNothing changed. Our view turns on a data centre order arriving with a size attached, second-half profit reaching the company's forecast, and how much of its 2030 target relies on deals not found. A tiny purchase and an unsized contract answer none of those. Still Neutral, Medium conviction.
Corning signed a deal letting it sell up to $2.0 billion of new shares on the stock market whenever it chooses, through Goldman Sachs. At the 23 September price that is about 12.9 million shares, about 1.5% of the company, and none has been sold yet. It was signed on 11 September, the day we wrote our view, and the shares fell 13.7% the next day.
What it did to the thesisWe corrected our record: it said Corning needed no new shares and had signed nothing like this, both wrong the day we wrote them. New shares leave each share owning less, a worry we already held; this is too small to move a grade. Still Unattractive, Medium conviction.
First Solar is dropping its complaint asking a US trade body to block imports of one type of solar panel made by ten rivals, which it says uses its patents. It will keep suing them in federal court instead, and tied the change to a separate US tariff action on polysilicon. The trade body could not have ruled before September 2027. Only the announcement's first paragraph could be read.
What it did to the thesisThe argument held and one fact was updated. We never counted on an import ban. Our case rests on the price floor on rivals' imported cells and a US tax credit for making panels at home, so the view stays Attractive with Medium conviction.
First Solar is asking the trade commission to bar imports of competing panels made by ten named rivals.
Expand completed its purchase of Twin Eagle on 16 September, 54 days after signing and within the quarter it had promised. The next day it borrowed $500 million through bonds paying 5.65% a year, due 2031. The borrowing alone leaves debt minus cash unchanged, since the cash raised sits beside the new debt; the purchase lifts it to roughly $4.4 billion.
What it did to the thesisThe view stays Neutral, confidence Medium. We rewrote the deal claims as history and re-checked our debt warning line: debt minus cash is closer to $5 billion but about $574 million below it. The other thing we wait for, a permanent chief executive, is still missing.
The Twin Eagle Merger Agreement requires HSR Act clearance, approval under Canada's Competition Act and FERC approval under Section 203(a) of the Fed…
The executed Twin Eagle merger agreement, dated 2026-07-24, is more protective of Expand than the announcement disclosed. The Outside Date is January…
EQT won a Lithuanian tender to sell ten shiploads of liquefied natural gas to Ignitis, the country's state-controlled energy group, one a year from 2027 to 2036, priced on both US and European gas prices. It is the first named buyer on any EQT gas-export deal, but one shipload is about 0.14% of this year's expected sales volume. Lithuanian security and EQT approvals are still pending.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Our case rests on larger conditional gas sales deals becoming firm, on two projects, Southgate and Boost, staying on schedule, and on debt coming down. One shipload a year changes none of those, and EQT has not yet filed anything on the deal.
Chime agreed to buy Stride Bank for $590 million in cash. Stride is one of the two partner banks Chime relies on because it has no banking licence of its own. Regulators must approve, and closing is expected in the first half of 2027. Chime also raised this year's profit forecast, on its own adjusted measure, a fourth time, to $481 million to $489 million.
What it did to the thesisThe view stays Neutral, confidence Medium. The company, counting debt and cash, now costs about 18.5 times this year's forecast profit, down from 25, so we rate the price fair, not full. But becoming Attractive needs two reported quarters with profit above 17% of sales; none has topped 15%.
Chime raised FY2026 guidance to revenue of $2.725-$2.745 billion (25%-26% growth) and Adjusted EBITDA of $465-$475 million (about 17% margin, roughly…
CHYM's short interest was 18,952,244 shares, 8.4% of float, at the FINRA settlement of 2026-08-14, down 17.8% from the prior settlement, with 1.56 da…
CHYM last traded at $33.20, implying a market capitalization of approximately $12.65 billion and, against the $1.05 billion of cash and marketable se…
FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance moved up in three steps across the company's first year public: $380-400 million (14%-15% margin) issued February 25,…
Constellation agreed to buy a gas-fired power plant in Johnston, Rhode Island, from a Shell company for $715 million. That is about 2.9% of Constellation's roughly $24.7 billion of debt. The announcement could be read only in part, so how the purchase will be paid for is not known. It names no data-centre customer or power contract.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. The deal is too small to change Constellation's debt in any way that matters. Our view rests on signed data-centre power deals, the Crane plant restarting in 2027, and the regional grid not loading new costs onto existing plants. The next quarterly filing will show the funding.
Oracle says its Project Jupiter data centre in New Mexico will run on Bloom fuel cells, but the gas pipeline feeding it slipped from August 2026 to February 2027, and Oracle sent the developer a notice letting it delay payments. A July filing we had missed shows Bloom denies its scandium, a rare metal, depends on China, but names no source. Four executives sold shares; none bought.
What it did to the thesisThe view stays Unattractive, confidence Medium. We corrected our record, which wrongly said Bloom never answered the scandium charge; a denial naming no supplier leaves the question open. The shares rose 34.9% without new results, so the company, counting debt, costs $25.20 per $1 of yearly sales, up from $19.35.
A securities class action has been filed against Bloom Energy in respect of a class period running February 27, 2025 through July 8, 2026, alleging t…
Shares of common stock outstanding rose from 231,969,446 at March 31, 2025 to 233,661,168 at June 30, 2025 to 280,045,459 at December 31, 2025. Again…
On the research pack's market tier, Bloom's trailing-twelve-month multiples are: price-to-earnings 244.10 against a prior-fiscal-years median of -20.…
Insider activity in the research window comprised 15 Form 4 filings with 12 open-market sales and zero open-market purchases. Sellers include directo…
As of the research pack date Bloom traded at $204.02, 41.92% below its 252-day high of $351.28 and 51.98% up its 52-week range from a low of $44.64;…
An unnamed workforce housing company picked Aramark's Nexus unit to run dining, cleaning, fitness and leisure for up to 4,000 trade workers at a new AI data-centre site in Texas. No sales figure, contract length or start date was given. It may be a Texas site of the same size that Aramark already counted at about $160 million a year.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. Our view turns on Nexus growing past the three sites Aramark has sized at $400 million to $500 million of yearly sales, with each new site signed, sized and dated. This one is signed but not sized or dated, so it cannot count yet.
Amazon borrowed £4.25 billion through its first bonds in British pounds, paying 5.2% to 6.65% a year. The Federal Trade Commission, a US regulator, and 22 states sued, saying Amazon secretly raised prices in its ad auctions since 2019, so advertisers paid their full bid about 80% of the time in 2024. Qualcomm said it will work with Amazon on custom AI chips; no terms were given.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. More borrowing was expected, and the lawsuit names no amount and hits advertising, not the cloud business, AWS, where most profit is made. Our view rests on cloud growth, signed cloud contracts and whether spare cash stops falling, which only the 29 October results will show.
Muse, Meta's new standalone AI assistant app, reached number one on the US App Store within days of launch. Meta has given no figures for how many people use it, what it charges or what it earns. Separately, a German court ruled Meta liable for fake adverts on Instagram and Facebook; no damages figure was reported.
What it did to the thesisNothing changed. Our case turns on whether Meta's $130 to $145 billion of heavy investment pays off, and Meta still reports no sales from it; a chart ranking is not sales. The German ruling has no amount, so it cannot be weighed. Still Attractive, Medium conviction.
US regulators fully approved Inluriyo, a Lilly breast cancer drug, for use with another Lilly drug, Verzenio, in advanced cancer carrying a particular gene change. It is Inluriyo's second approval in under a year. In the trial, the pair held the disease back for a typical 11.1 months, against 5.5 months for Inluriyo alone. Inluriyo sold $75 million last quarter, 0.3% of Lilly's $22,974 million.
What it did to the thesisWe updated one line. We had said the fast growth of small new products like Inluriyo might not last; a second approval is a reason this one may. But one drug, tirzepatide, is still 64.7% of sales, so the view stays Neutral with Medium conviction.
St. Joe announced plans for 3,500 more homes at Latitude Margaritaville Watersound, a community it builds with a partner. Its filings put that community at about 3,700 homes, with 2,359 lived in at 30 June 2026. A week earlier it announced a new weddings and events business. Neither announcement could be read beyond its title, so nothing is known about timing or cost.
What it did to the thesisNo fact moved: a headline cannot replace a filed number. But one of our tests for changing our mind counted only a new venture, so it could never fire if this one simply grows; we rewrote it to count either. Still Unattractive, Medium conviction.
The Federal Trade Commission, a US regulator, accepted a deal under which Corpay and its chief executive, Ronald Clarke, pay $100 million back to business customers harmed by hidden fuel-card fees. The regulator's release, the only one we could read, adds that an appeals court upheld the 2023 ruling against the company on all counts, and that Clarke agreed not to fight a court order against him personally.
What it did to the thesisThe view stays Neutral, confidence Medium. We updated the record because the settlement is no longer preliminary, and the chief executive being a named party is a fact about how the company is run. The money was already counted as a cost; the fees involved are about 3% of sales.
Corpay recorded a $100M charge in Q2 2026 for a preliminary settlement with the FTC's Bureau of Consumer Protection, subject to commission approval,…
A second group of shareholders has sued AppLovin on behalf of anyone who bought its shares from 12 February to 5 August 2026. They claim the company overstated how steadily its AI models were improving and hid delays to a tool that makes video ads with AI. Nothing has been decided; a lawsuit is one side's account. An earlier, separate suit is about the accounting.
What it did to the thesisThe view stays Attractive and confidence Medium. We rewrote the record to name two lawsuits, because this one challenges the weakest part of our case: that the second-quarter slowdown came from the timing of AppLovin's model releases, not weak demand. The 4 November results test that; a complaint does not.
A securities class action alleging materially false statements about the advertising solutions and financial growth is live; the motion to dismiss wa…
Affirm says it now decides who gets a loan with a new kind of AI model. It gave no numbers - not how many people it approves, nor how many loans go bad - and the announcement itself could not be read beyond its headline. The first filing that must describe it is due on 5 November.
What it did to the thesisNothing moved. How Affirm decides who to lend to is the heart of our case, but without results there is nothing to judge the new model by. The November results, which report how many loans go bad, are the first real test.
The company selling DBM Global, a steel business IES is buying, published DBM's audited accounts. DBM earned $91.8 million of operating profit, profit from the business before interest and tax, over the year to 4 July 2026, not the $111 million we got by doubling one strong half-year. Its managers expect profit to fall in 2027. In an auction with 37 interested parties, IES raised its bid to $650 million.
What it did to the thesisWe corrected our most flattering number: IES pays about 7.5 times DBM's yearly profit, not 6. That is still far cheaper than IES's own shares at 26 times, so the deal still adds to profit per share, and the view stays Unattractive with Medium conviction.