Soluna Holdings
It rents space and wind power at Texas wind farms to bitcoin miners, and wants to turn those grid connections into data centres for artificial intelligence.
Our viewUnattractive Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑
Like-for-like Q2 revenue grew 73% as new halls filled, but 2025 fell, the record is one year, and four customers carry it.
Business quality2/4 →
Energised Texas connections are scarce while the queue is paused, but hosting is substitutable and the anchor tenant is building rival AI halls nearby.
Financial position2/4 →
$113.4M of June cash covers today's burn and the Generate loan is repaid, but any AI build needs equity not raised, and preferred arrears grow.
Execution record2/4 →
Kati 1 was delivered, but the GPU cloud failed within a year, pipeline figures swell on term sheets, and its own megawatt counts disagree.
Per share capture1/4 ↓
Shares rose about twelvefold in a year, grants and self-refilling plans add more, preferred sits ahead, and holders approved 1 billion shares.
Potential2/4 ↑
AI capacity is scarce and rivals have signed leases, but a lease, grid confirmation and financing must all arrive, none yet committed.
Risk profile2/4 →
ERCOT's audit and verification decide both campuses in one step, and four customers carry revenue.
Valuation2/4 →
About $142M behind the preferred pays for AI campuses no tenant has signed; the plan working still leaves the common funding most of the equity.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Share counts, preferred, covenants and grid positions are filed; the grid-to-AI conversion is inferred from a rival's ratio and the lease terms are undisclosed.
The bet · 2-3 years
Speculation2.8×
If it works 2.8× · if it fails you keep about 0%.
The Verdict
We rate Soluna unattractive. It rents space and cheap Texas wind power to bitcoin miners, and before head-office costs those sites lose money. The hope is data centres for AI on grid connections that are genuinely scarce, but no AI tenant has signed. The price is full, not cheap: buyers pay now for those halls as if they were already leased. As a bet it is speculative: if a lease comes, the shares might roughly double and not much more, because today's holders would fund much of the building through new shares; if it fails, the preferred holders and the remaining lenders come first and little or nothing is left.
The long caseAI needs data centres faster than grids can connect them, so a company already holding Texas grid connections could lease them to AI tenants, if one signs.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C03facthigh confidence
Before head-office costs, the three operating segments lost $1.26M in Q2 2026: hosting earned $0.32M, own mining lost $0.74M and the Briscoe wind farm lost $0.84M.
C13facthigh confidence
ERCOT has conditionally classified the 166 MW Kati campus, 83 MW of it for Kati 2, and the 100 MW Dorothy campus as existing load in its Batch Zero process; a further 50 MW at Dorothy is being studied.
C11facthigh confidence
No definitive AI lease is signed. For Kati 2 the company has a letter of intent, with exclusivity, with an unnamed tenant; for Dorothy 3 ChronoScale, majority-owned by Applied Digital, signed a non-binding letter of intent on 21 October 2026. The 10-Q says it cannot assure a definitive lease; the AI segment earned nothing in the first half of 2026.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryQ2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 13 August 2026primaryForm 8-K Item 7.01 and Exhibit 99.1: Soluna agrees to form a…primary
- 2026-10-21edited21 October 2026: a second letter of intent, non-binding, for Dorothy 3; still no definitive lease.
C14facthigh confidence
The company's own documents name Kati 2 at 100 MW of AI load rising to 350 MW and Dorothy 3 at 300 MW, while the grid positions it reports are 83 MW for Kati 2 and 100 MW for all of Dorothy, 98 MW of which serves bitcoin load today.
C50inferencemedium confidence
At $0.577 on 246.7 million shares the common is worth about $142M, behind a $158.1M preferred claim and $37.9M of loan principal, against $113.4M of June cash; the operating sites lost money before head office, so the price pays for AI campuses no tenant has signed.
against this
- The hosting business is energised and filled: 206 MW earning revenue, and segment earnings before depreciation were positive in Q2 2026 (C03).
- The preferred traded at $12.82 at the pack's date (2026-09-25), so the market then priced that claim at about $63M rather than $158M; the common's position behind it is less costly than face value suggests.
- The Briscoe wind farm cost $55.9M four months ago and the land and grid positions have a replacement value the market may be pricing rather than a lease.
- 2026-09-26editedre-struck at the 25 September 2026 close of $1.22 from $1.25: the common is worth about $301M rather than $308M
- 2026-10-02editedre-struck at the 1 October 2026 close of $1.06 (FMP end-of-day) from $1.22 after a 13.1% fall: the common is worth about $262M rather than $301M; the preferred and loan claims ahead of it and June cash are unchanged
- 2026-10-21editedre-struck at the 20 October 2026 close of $0.577 (FMP end-of-day) from $1.06 after a 45.6% fall: the common is worth about $142M rather than $262M, less than the preferred claim ahead of it; nothing else moved.
C51estimatemedium confidence
Kati 2's first 100 MW at a rival's $11M to $13M a megawatt costs $1.1B to $1.3B; with 80% project debt the equity is $220M to $260M, more than June's cash, and raised in common at $0.577 it is 381 to 451 million new shares.
against this
- A joint-venture or project equity partner could fund most of the 20%, as Spring Lane did for Dorothy 2 and Kati 1, leaving the common less diluted (C24).
- An owned wind farm and an existing substation could put the build below a greenfield rival's cost.
- A signed lease would likely lift the share price, so equity raised afterwards would need fewer shares.
- 2026-09-26editedre-struck at the 25 September 2026 close of $1.22 from $1.25: the equity is 180 to 213 million new shares rather than 176 to 208
- 2026-10-02editedre-struck at the 1 October 2026 close of $1.06 (FMP end-of-day) from $1.22 after a 13.1% fall: the equity is 208 to 245 million new shares rather than 180 to 213
- 2026-10-21editedre-struck at the 20 October 2026 close of $0.577 from $1.06 after a 45.6% fall: the equity is 381 to 451 million new shares rather than 208 to 245; the Dorothy 3 partner funding is a different build.
C23facthigh confidence
Ahead of the common shares sit 4.92 million 9% cumulative preferred shares with a $25.00 liquidation preference, $123.0M, and $35.1M of unpaid dividends accrued since October 2022, a claim of about $158.1M; they trade at $12.82.
C25facthigh confidence
On 16 October 2026 holders approved raising authorised common shares from 375 million to 1 billion (144.4 million votes for, 13.3 million against) and allowed the $250M equity line to issue 20% or more of the shares (89.7 million for, 5.4 million against); the amendment took effect that day.
sourceDefinitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) for the 16 October 2026…primaryForm 8-K (Items 5.03, 5.07) on the 16 October 2026 annual…primary
- 2026-10-20editedthe 16 October vote happened: the forward ask became a filed result, approved
The company
Bitcoin miners need a building, cooling and a lot of cheap electricity. Soluna supplies all three at wind farms in Texas and a grid site in Kentucky: miners bring their machines, and Soluna provides the hall, power at cost and staff, for a fee or a share of what the machines earn. Hosting was 84% of June-quarter revenue.
The evidence under this - 1 claim
C01facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue was $15.06M: $12.65M from hosting other companies' bitcoin miners, $1.72M from mining for itself, $0.37M from wind power and $0.32M from grid demand-response payments. Hosting was 84%.
How it makes money
Hosting fees, on contracts of 12 to 24 months, bring in most of the money; mining for itself, selling wind power and payments for switching off when the grid is stretched bring the rest. Four customers were 67% of all revenue. At two sites carrying 56% of hosting revenue, a partner, Spring Lane Capital, takes 92.5% of the cash until it earns 16% to 18% a year.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C01facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue was $15.06M: $12.65M from hosting other companies' bitcoin miners, $1.72M from mining for itself, $0.37M from wind power and $0.32M from grid demand-response payments. Hosting was 84%.
C07facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 four hosting customers were 80% of hosting revenue and 67% of all revenue; hosting contracts generally run 12 to 24 months.
C24facthigh confidence
Spring Lane Capital takes 92.5% of the cash Dorothy 2 distributes until it earns 18% a year, and of Kati 1's until 16%, then half; Dorothy 2 and Kati 1 were 56% of Q2 2026 hosting revenue.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (Q2 2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Data hosting | 84.0% | Rents powered space at its Texas and Kentucky sites to other companies' bitcoin miners, now passing their electricity through at cost. |
| Own bitcoin mining | 11.4% | Mines bitcoin with its own machines and, at Kati 1, shares the coin Bitdeer's machines produce. |
| Wind power sales | 2.5% | Sells Briscoe wind farm output not used on site, part of it at a market price that can go negative. |
| Demand response | 2.1% | Paid by the grid to switch its sites' load off when supply is tight. |
| AI data centres | 0% | No lease signed; the segment earned nothing in the first half of 2026. |
Who runs it
John Belizaire has run Soluna since 2023, with the former chief executive, Michael Toporek, as executive chairman and a new finance chief since April. Insiders own about 15%, mostly shares granted to them rather than bought. Their pay is salary, a bonus with no stated target and shares that vest with time, and until the end of 2026 they also receive extra shares whenever the company sells new ones.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C57facthigh confidence
John Belizaire has been chief executive since 1 May 2023 and ran the computing subsidiary from October 2021; Michael Toporek, chief executive from 2020 to 2023, is executive chairman; Michael Picchi became finance chief on 1 April 2026 after the previous one resigned in August 2025; Ryan Carver joined from Microsoft as development chief in July 2026.
C58facthigh confidence
Directors and executive officers owned 15.5% of the common as a group at 10 August 2026, 37.9 million of 244.6 million shares; Toporek is the largest at 7.0%, almost all of it 17.1 million restricted shares that vest only when he leaves, Belizaire holds 2.9%, and Robert Bugbee at 6.3% is the only outside holder above 5%.
C59facthigh confidence
In 2025 Belizaire was paid $463,050 of salary, a $471,742 bonus and $5.06M of restricted stock, and Toporek $12.19M of restricted stock; the awards vest on service or on leaving, the proxy names no performance measure for the bonus or the awards and no ownership guideline, and each non-employee director received $1.15M to $1.62M of stock.
C60facthigh confidence
Under 'True-Up' agreements, executives and directors received restricted stock calculated as a percentage of the company's own share issuances each quarter; the board voted in January 2026 to end the grants after 31 December 2026, with a final grant on 15 January 2027.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
What Soluna has is a connection. Texas's grid operator has conditionally recognised 266 MW at its two wind-farm campuses as existing load, while the state has frozen new data-centre connections for an audit and more than 438 GW of requests wait in line.
That fills halls. But contracts run only 12 to 24 months, the sites lost money before head office, and once the audit clears nothing in a hall is unique.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C13facthigh confidence
ERCOT has conditionally classified the 166 MW Kati campus, 83 MW of it for Kati 2, and the 100 MW Dorothy campus as existing load in its Batch Zero process; a further 50 MW at Dorothy is being studied.
C33facthigh confidence
Texas's governor ordered on 3 August 2026 that no data centre move forward in the grid connection process until regulators audit them all, against about 474 gigawatts of requests; ERCOT counts more than 438,000 MW of large-load requests, 89% data centres.
C08facthigh confidence
Galaxy Digital's own December 2025 filing says its mining revenue will include 'a hosting agreement with Soluna', energising in the first half of 2026; Soluna's 10-Q says Kati 1's first 48 MW is contracted to Galaxy.
C07facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 four hosting customers were 80% of hosting revenue and 67% of all revenue; hosting contracts generally run 12 to 24 months.
C03facthigh confidence
Before head-office costs, the three operating segments lost $1.26M in Q2 2026: hosting earned $0.32M, own mining lost $0.74M and the Briscoe wind farm lost $0.84M.
The threat
Its own customers can go home: Galaxy mines at its own sites and Bitdeer owns data centres, so either can move its machines when a contract ends. For AI, rivals have already signed. Galaxy's Helios campus in the same part of Texas has a 15-year lease with CoreWeave, and Applied Digital, the rival Soluna names first, has leased about 1,410 MW.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C08facthigh confidence
Galaxy Digital's own December 2025 filing says its mining revenue will include 'a hosting agreement with Soluna', energising in the first half of 2026; Soluna's 10-Q says Kati 1's first 48 MW is contracted to Galaxy.
C10facthigh confidence
Bitdeer agreed in August 2026 to place about 28 MW of its own mining machines at Kati 1 and on 28 September 2026 added about 7 MW, for about 35 MW and 2.42 EH/s, to finish in November 2026; it shares the bitcoin they produce with Soluna, which supplies the site, power and operations.
sourceBitdeer co-mining release, Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K of 25…primaryBitdeer amendment release, Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K of 28…primary
- 2026-09-29editededited because the 28 September amendment raised Bitdeer's Kati 1 deployment from about 28 MW to about 35 MW on the same profit-share terms
C09facthigh confidence
Galaxy's Helios campus in the West Texas panhandle has developed 133 MW of AI load on about 200 MW of grid power for CoreWeave under a 15-year lease; 393 MW more is leased on 600 MW of grid power, of 1.6 GW ERCOT approved.
C29facthigh confidence
Applied Digital, which Soluna's 10-K names as a rival, had signed leases for about 1,410 MW of AI load worth about $36.2B over 15-year terms at 31 May 2026, and builds a 150 MW design in 14 to 18 months. On 21 October 2026 Applied Digital also agreed to form a joint company with Soluna for a 50 MW Dorothy 3 data centre (C64), so it is now a partner as well as a named rival.
sourceApplied Digital Corp. Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31…primaryForm 8-K Item 7.01 and Exhibit 99.1: Soluna agrees to form a…primary
- 2026-10-21edited21 October 2026: Applied Digital became Soluna's partner at Dorothy 3.
The rivals: CORZ, GLXY, BTDR, APLD, HUT.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | Where it competes | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORZ | Core Scientific, Inc.Priced against it: Same product | Data Center Hosting | On sale | Same product |
| GLXY · BTDR | Galaxy Digital (its own Diboll and Helios sites) and Bitdeer (its own Texas data centres)Priced against it: One segment only | Data Center Hosting | On sale | One segment only |
| GLXY | Galaxy Digital's Helios campusPriced against it: One segment only | High-Performance Computing | On sale | One segment only |
| APLD | Applied Digital Corp.Priced against it: One segment only | High-Performance Computing | On sale | One segment only |
| HUT | Hut 8Priced against it: One segment only | - | On sale | One segment only |
How big it could get
How big this could get
The prize is AI data-centre space rented from landlords, and it is scarce: 80.4% of what is being built in the main markets is spoken for before it is finished. None of that says how much reaches a rural wind-farm site, and today Soluna leases no AI capacity at all.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C38facthigh confidence
CBRE measured record 1.4% vacancy in primary data-centre markets in the first half of 2026, 7,481.1 MW under construction and 80.4% of it committed before completion.
C11facthigh confidence
No definitive AI lease is signed. For Kati 2 the company has a letter of intent, with exclusivity, with an unnamed tenant; for Dorothy 3 ChronoScale, majority-owned by Applied Digital, signed a non-binding letter of intent on 21 October 2026. The 10-Q says it cannot assure a definitive lease; the AI segment earned nothing in the first half of 2026.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryQ2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 13 August 2026primaryForm 8-K Item 7.01 and Exhibit 99.1: Soluna agrees to form a…primary
- 2026-10-21edited21 October 2026: a second letter of intent, non-binding, for Dorothy 3; still no definitive lease.
Who has signed
Only bitcoin customers have signed: Galaxy for 48 MW at Kati 1, Bitdeer for about 35 MW on a profit share, and three miners filling Dorothy 2. For AI there is a letter of intent with an unnamed tenant at Kati 2, and the quarterly filing says the company cannot assure it becomes a lease.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C08facthigh confidence
Galaxy Digital's own December 2025 filing says its mining revenue will include 'a hosting agreement with Soluna', energising in the first half of 2026; Soluna's 10-Q says Kati 1's first 48 MW is contracted to Galaxy.
C10facthigh confidence
Bitdeer agreed in August 2026 to place about 28 MW of its own mining machines at Kati 1 and on 28 September 2026 added about 7 MW, for about 35 MW and 2.42 EH/s, to finish in November 2026; it shares the bitcoin they produce with Soluna, which supplies the site, power and operations.
sourceBitdeer co-mining release, Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K of 25…primaryBitdeer amendment release, Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K of 28…primary
- 2026-09-29editededited because the 28 September amendment raised Bitdeer's Kati 1 deployment from about 28 MW to about 35 MW on the same profit-share terms
C07facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 four hosting customers were 80% of hosting revenue and 67% of all revenue; hosting contracts generally run 12 to 24 months.
C11facthigh confidence
No definitive AI lease is signed. For Kati 2 the company has a letter of intent, with exclusivity, with an unnamed tenant; for Dorothy 3 ChronoScale, majority-owned by Applied Digital, signed a non-binding letter of intent on 21 October 2026. The 10-Q says it cannot assure a definitive lease; the AI segment earned nothing in the first half of 2026.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryQ2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 13 August 2026primaryForm 8-K Item 7.01 and Exhibit 99.1: Soluna agrees to form a…primary
- 2026-10-21edited21 October 2026: a second letter of intent, non-binding, for Dorothy 3; still no definitive lease.
The results
The numbers
Is it growing?Shrinking
Sales fell 22% in the year to Dec 2025, slower than the 80% in the year before.
Is it profitable?Losing
Operating margin is −113%, up from −297% in the year to Dec 2022.
Does growth pay off?Costly
Running costs take 119¢ of each sales dollar, down from 269¢ in the year to Dec 2022.
Does it earn good returns?Poor
Shareholders' money lost 260% a year, down from −11% in the year to Dec 2021.
Is it making cash?Burning
It used up $37.2M more cash than it brought in, 125% of sales, after spending 94% of sales on buildings and equipment.
How steady is it?Swingy
Yearly sales growth has ranged from −26% to +23× over the last 5 years, with sales falling in 2 of them.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in December.
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | |||||
| Sales | $14.3M | $28.5M | $21.1M | $38.0M | $29.7M |
| Sales growth | +23× | +99% | −26% | +80% | −22% |
| Profit | |||||
| Gross margin | - | −28% | 13% | −62% | 6.1% |
| Operating margin | −31% | −297% | −96% | −125% | −113% |
| Net margin | −37% | −346% | −139% | −167% | −180% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | |||||
| General and admin | 64% | 67% | 73% | 49% | 103% |
| Pay in shares | 14% | 13% | 20% | 14% | 36% |
| Capital spending | 319% | 223% | 60% | 23% | 94% |
| Cash | |||||
| Cash from operations | $4.63M | −$6.12M | −$2.99M | −$5.07M | −$9.15M |
| Free cash flow | −$41.2M | −$69.8M | −$15.7M | −$13.9M | −$37.2M |
| Balance sheet | |||||
| Debt | - | $13.0M | - | $21.5M | $26.8M |
| Returns and shares | |||||
| Shares (diluted) | - | - | - | 5.11M | 29.0M |
What growth costs
Growing has made Soluna less profitable so far. Sales doubled this year, but head-office costs rose faster, mostly because the company pays its people in shares. The cash part of head office did spread over more sales, so the problem is the share pay, which dilutes holders instead of costing cash.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C61facthigh confidence
Head-office costs before depreciation were 49% of revenue in 2024, 103% in 2025, and 128% in the first half of 2026 against 94% a year earlier; share-based pay rose from 14% to 36% of revenue between 2024 and 2025 and to 81% in the first half of 2026, while the rest of head office fell from 63% to 49% of revenue between the two first halves.
C04facthigh confidence
Head-office costs not charged to any site were $13.9M in Q2 2026, of which share-based pay was $9.4M; across the first half share-based pay was $19.7M against revenue of $24.5M.
The last report (13 Aug)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
60.3%
Growth from the quarter before
against 52.5% the quarter before that
-113¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales
Revenue in the June 2026 quarter was $15.06M, but a change in how pass-through electricity is booked added $4.4M; without it, growth from a year earlier was 73%, not 145%.
The three operating segments together lost $1.26M before head office. Head office then cost $13.9M, $9.4M of it paid in shares, and the company lost $40.5M in the first half, $38.2M of it Soluna's own after its partners' share.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the core worry: once head-office costs and pay in shares are counted, the business loses heavily, and part of the growth was a bookkeeping change. Nothing in it moved the AI halls closer to a signed tenant, which is why the view stays Unattractive.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $-0.18 against $-0.11 expected; $-0.18 as filed, with no adjustments.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C01facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue was $15.06M: $12.65M from hosting other companies' bitcoin miners, $1.72M from mining for itself, $0.37M from wind power and $0.32M from grid demand-response payments. Hosting was 84%.
C02facthigh confidence
From Q2 2026 electricity passed through to hosting customers at cost is shown in both revenue and cost of revenue, adding $4.4M to each; without the change Q2 2026 revenue grew 73% from a year earlier, not 145%.
C03facthigh confidence
Before head-office costs, the three operating segments lost $1.26M in Q2 2026: hosting earned $0.32M, own mining lost $0.74M and the Briscoe wind farm lost $0.84M.
C04facthigh confidence
Head-office costs not charged to any site were $13.9M in Q2 2026, of which share-based pay was $9.4M; across the first half share-based pay was $19.7M against revenue of $24.5M.
C05facthigh confidence
The company lost $40.5M in the first half of 2026, $38.2M of it attributable to Soluna's shareholders after the partners' share at the joint-venture sites, and its operations used $11.6M of cash; it lost $57.0M in 2025, $53.4M attributable.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryForm 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025primary
- 2026-09-26editednames both definitions of the loss: $40.5M and $57.0M are the consolidated net loss, and the refreshed pack now carries the shareholders' figure ($38.2M for the half, $53.4M for 2025), both read from the 10-Q and 10-K income statements
What management did with the money
It sold 74.2 million shares through the market in the first half for $113.5M, and 18.8 million more after June at about $1.26 each. It granted staff 20.5 million restricted shares in the quarter, and its share-plan reserves grow automatically by more than a fifth of the share count every quarter.
Insiders in 2026Q2: 1 purchases and 10 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C20facthigh confidence
In the first half of 2026 the at-the-market programme sold 74.2 million shares for $113.5M, about $1.53 each, and 18.8 million more after June for $23.6M, about $1.26; an older equity line sold 10.2 million for $18.9M.
C21facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 the company granted 20.5 million restricted shares at $1.67, about $34.2M; 12.9 million of the half's grants vest only when the holder leaves the company, and 48.6 million unvested restricted shares were outstanding.
C22facthigh confidence
The share reserve of the 2021 plan rises each quarter by 22.75% of the shares outstanding, and that of the 2023 plan by 23.75%.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Full. The price pays for AI data-centre halls no tenant has signed, and even a signed lease would probably be paid for largely by today's shareholders, through new shares.
Share price
$0.79
close,
Price for each $1 of sales
4.6
its 6-year normal 2.3
Price for each $1 of net worth
1.0
its 6-year normal 0.4
On 21 October Soluna agreed with Applied Digital to form a joint company for a 50 MW AI hall at Dorothy 3. Applied would hold 51% and provide the capital; the tenant, ChronoScale, which Applied also owns, has signed only a non-binding letter of intent. Closing by year end depends on a local tax abatement.
Holders approved raising the permitted share count to 1 billion on 16 October. On 26 October Soluna said it had repaid its Generate loan in full, which ends the coverage test management expected to fail; total debt fell from $37.9M to $9.2M.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C64facthigh confidence
On 21 October 2026 Soluna announced a definitive agreement with Applied Digital to form a jointly owned company, Applied expected to hold 51% and Soluna 49%, to develop a planned 50 MW AI data centre at Dorothy 3; Soluna contributes a portion of the site, land and power-related assets and Applied provides capital, and ChronoScale, which Applied majority-owns, signed a non-binding letter of intent to lease it; closing by the end of 2026 depends on a Briscoe County tax abatement, title policies, an operating agreement, definitive leases and power agreements.
against this
- The release gives no amount of capital, rent, lease term or power price, and the lease is a non-binding letter of intent, not a lease.
- The prospective tenant is majority-owned by the partner taking 51%, so the lease is between companies under one owner's influence, not an arm's-length customer.
C25facthigh confidence
On 16 October 2026 holders approved raising authorised common shares from 375 million to 1 billion (144.4 million votes for, 13.3 million against) and allowed the $250M equity line to issue 20% or more of the shares (89.7 million for, 5.4 million against); the amendment took effect that day.
sourceDefinitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) for the 16 October 2026…primaryForm 8-K (Items 5.03, 5.07) on the 16 October 2026 annual…primary
- 2026-10-20editedthe 16 October vote happened: the forward ask became a filed result, approved
C26facthigh confidence
Soluna repaid its Generate Capital loan in full: $19.1M in August, which waived June's forward test and included a $3.9M premium, and the remaining $9.6M of the $28.7M principal in October. The facility is terminated, its liens on the project assets are released, and total debt principal fell from $37.9M at 30 June to $9.2M.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryForm 8-K and Exhibit 99.1: Soluna completes full repayment…primary
- 2026-10-26editedthe 26 October release says the Generate loan is fully repaid, so the forward test management expected to fail no longer applies
The betSpeculation
If it works
2.8×
from today's value, at the stated multiple
If it fails
keep 0%
of today's market value: what the worst case leaves shareholders
How we read the multiple
The shares are worth about $142M. Ahead of them come $158.1M owed to preferred holders and $37.9M of loans, against $113.4M of cash. The sites lose money, so the price pays for AI campuses nobody has leased.
Even a lease would cost holders. For the first 100 megawatts at Kati 2:
- Building costs $1.1B to $1.3B.
- With 80% borrowed, the rest is $220M to $260M, more than its cash.
- Raised in shares at today's price, that is 381 to 451 million new shares, on top of 246.7 million today.
Against its own history. Dearer than its own normal on sales and on what it owns, even as each share's slice keeps shrinking: the whole company has grown more valuable, not the share.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C50inferencemedium confidence
At $0.577 on 246.7 million shares the common is worth about $142M, behind a $158.1M preferred claim and $37.9M of loan principal, against $113.4M of June cash; the operating sites lost money before head office, so the price pays for AI campuses no tenant has signed.
against this
- The hosting business is energised and filled: 206 MW earning revenue, and segment earnings before depreciation were positive in Q2 2026 (C03).
- The preferred traded at $12.82 at the pack's date (2026-09-25), so the market then priced that claim at about $63M rather than $158M; the common's position behind it is less costly than face value suggests.
- The Briscoe wind farm cost $55.9M four months ago and the land and grid positions have a replacement value the market may be pricing rather than a lease.
- 2026-09-26editedre-struck at the 25 September 2026 close of $1.22 from $1.25: the common is worth about $301M rather than $308M
- 2026-10-02editedre-struck at the 1 October 2026 close of $1.06 (FMP end-of-day) from $1.22 after a 13.1% fall: the common is worth about $262M rather than $301M; the preferred and loan claims ahead of it and June cash are unchanged
- 2026-10-21editedre-struck at the 20 October 2026 close of $0.577 (FMP end-of-day) from $1.06 after a 45.6% fall: the common is worth about $142M rather than $262M, less than the preferred claim ahead of it; nothing else moved.
C23facthigh confidence
Ahead of the common shares sit 4.92 million 9% cumulative preferred shares with a $25.00 liquidation preference, $123.0M, and $35.1M of unpaid dividends accrued since October 2022, a claim of about $158.1M; they trade at $12.82.
C27facthigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 the company held $113.4M of cash and $17.9M restricted, owed $37.9M of loan principal, and carried a $19.3M liability to Hewlett Packard Enterprise from a GPU cloud contract it ended in March 2025. By 26 October $28.7M of that principal had been repaid, leaving $9.2M.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryForm 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025primaryForm 8-K and Exhibit 99.1: Soluna completes full repayment…primary
- 2026-10-26editedthe 26 October release cut loan principal from $37.9M to $9.2M; the June cash figure is unchanged and the October payment's effect on it is not yet reported
C51estimatemedium confidence
Kati 2's first 100 MW at a rival's $11M to $13M a megawatt costs $1.1B to $1.3B; with 80% project debt the equity is $220M to $260M, more than June's cash, and raised in common at $0.577 it is 381 to 451 million new shares.
against this
- A joint-venture or project equity partner could fund most of the 20%, as Spring Lane did for Dorothy 2 and Kati 1, leaving the common less diluted (C24).
- An owned wind farm and an existing substation could put the build below a greenfield rival's cost.
- A signed lease would likely lift the share price, so equity raised afterwards would need fewer shares.
- 2026-09-26editedre-struck at the 25 September 2026 close of $1.22 from $1.25: the equity is 180 to 213 million new shares rather than 176 to 208
- 2026-10-02editedre-struck at the 1 October 2026 close of $1.06 (FMP end-of-day) from $1.22 after a 13.1% fall: the equity is 208 to 245 million new shares rather than 180 to 213
- 2026-10-21editedre-struck at the 20 October 2026 close of $0.577 from $1.06 after a 45.6% fall: the equity is 381 to 451 million new shares rather than 208 to 245; the Dorothy 3 partner funding is a different build.
C40facthigh confidence
Over the 252 sessions to 25 September 2026 the shares fell 65.1% while revenue per share fell 82.7% and the diluted share count rose 773.7%; the 52-week range is $0.59 to $5.14 and the close $1.22.
sourceResearch pack, refreshed 26 September 2026, frozen at…secondaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary
- 2026-09-26editedre-struck on the pack refreshed 26 September 2026 at the 25 September close of $1.22: the window now starts a day later, after a one-session jump from $2.37 to $3.50, so the year's fall reads 65.1% rather than 47.3% and the rise in what buyers pay per dollar of sales 101.9% rather than 205.5%
Priced against its rivals
Only Core Scientific sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.
Also checked and set aside: TeraWulf (a substitute, not the same product); Cipher Digital (a substitute, not the same product); IREN (a substitute, not the same product); Digital Realty Trust (a substitute, not the same product).
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Crusoe, Lambda, FluidStack, Blockstream, Foundry, Compass Mining, Blockware, BitFuFu, Canaan, Cango, Nebius.
The bet: what it pays if it works
This is a bet that Soluna signs and builds its first AI hall. If a tenant takes all of Kati 2's planned first stage and it opens in about two years, the business would still be worth less than twice today's value on what such a hall is worth to shareholders after the debt that builds it.
If it fails, little is left for ordinary shareholders: the preferred holders and the remaining lenders come first, the sites lose money, and new shares fill the gap.
| Revenue in two to three years | Megawatts of data-centre capacity leased needed | At the stated multiple |
|---|---|---|
| $60.00M | about 0 at 100% kept | 0.7× |
| $231.00M (the big win) | about 100 at 100% kept | 2.8× |
| $402.00M | about 200 at 100% kept | 4.8× |
| $436.64M (market forecast) | about 220 at 100% kept | 5.3× |
Tenants are not the limit: vacancy near zero, 95% pre-committed, converted miners past 4 GW leased. At 2.2% of about 10 GW by 2029, Soluna leases 220 MW, all its grid holds, earning about $437 million. On that forecast, $436.64M pays 5.3× from today's value: a Cheap bet on the market case.
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $166.16M of revenue (about 62 megawatts of data-centre capacity leased); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $415.40M of revenue (about 208 megawatts of data-centre capacity leased), at the same multiple.
The steps it has to take
- Done Kati 1's 83 MW fully energised and earning a gross profit
- In progress Bitdeer's 35 MW of machines installed at Kati 1 due 2026-11
- Done Holders approve 1 billion authorised shares and the equity line beyond 20%
- Done The Generate loan retired, ending its forward test
- Not started Las Majadas substation expanded by 100 MW due 2027-03
- In progress A definitive Kati 2 lease filed, naming tenant, megawatts, term and rent due 2027-06
- Not started Project debt of about 80% of cost closed, equity mainly from a partner due 2027-12
- Not started Two quarters with no shares sold through the ATM or the equity line due 2027-12
- Not started Kati 2's first 100 MW ready for service due 2028-09
The detail behind the label
Rating
Fair
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet at about
$0.44
44% below the price (close, )
Market case
5.3×
a cheap bet if the market forecast holds
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C14facthigh confidence
The company's own documents name Kati 2 at 100 MW of AI load rising to 350 MW and Dorothy 3 at 300 MW, while the grid positions it reports are 83 MW for Kati 2 and 100 MW for all of Dorothy, 98 MW of which serves bitcoin load today.
C16management claimmedium confidence
Management says Kati 2 can be ready about 15 months after a lease is signed, that design is nearly complete, a general contractor is hired and long-lead electrical equipment is under letters of intent.
sourceQ2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 13 August 2026primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary
against this
- The HPE-backed GPU cloud of 2024 ended within a year, leaving a $19.3M liability (C27); the company has not yet delivered an AI building.
- Letters of intent with suppliers are not orders, and the 10-Q's commitments note carries only $8.2M of contracted capital spending, for Kati 1 and Briscoe.
C11facthigh confidence
No definitive AI lease is signed. For Kati 2 the company has a letter of intent, with exclusivity, with an unnamed tenant; for Dorothy 3 ChronoScale, majority-owned by Applied Digital, signed a non-binding letter of intent on 21 October 2026. The 10-Q says it cannot assure a definitive lease; the AI segment earned nothing in the first half of 2026.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryQ2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 13 August 2026primaryForm 8-K Item 7.01 and Exhibit 99.1: Soluna agrees to form a…primary
- 2026-10-21edited21 October 2026: a second letter of intent, non-binding, for Dorothy 3; still no definitive lease.
C23facthigh confidence
Ahead of the common shares sit 4.92 million 9% cumulative preferred shares with a $25.00 liquidation preference, $123.0M, and $35.1M of unpaid dividends accrued since October 2022, a claim of about $158.1M; they trade at $12.82.
C25facthigh confidence
On 16 October 2026 holders approved raising authorised common shares from 375 million to 1 billion (144.4 million votes for, 13.3 million against) and allowed the $250M equity line to issue 20% or more of the shares (89.7 million for, 5.4 million against); the amendment took effect that day.
sourceDefinitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) for the 16 October 2026…primaryForm 8-K (Items 5.03, 5.07) on the 16 October 2026 annual…primary
- 2026-10-20editedthe 16 October vote happened: the forward ask became a filed result, approved
C03facthigh confidence
Before head-office costs, the three operating segments lost $1.26M in Q2 2026: hosting earned $0.32M, own mining lost $0.74M and the Briscoe wind farm lost $0.84M.
Where we disagree with the market
The market believes
An AI infrastructure platform with a 6.3 GW pipeline. The one or two analysts covering it all say buy.
We believe
The grid positions are real and scarce, but a lease would be funded largely by new shares, so holders keep little.
Twice in a year a rally on AI and power news was used to sell shares, and each time the price fell back: from $5.14 to $1.17 by December 2025, and from $1.83 to $1.08 by August 2026. The holder kept a smaller slice of a bigger company.
We would be wrong if a named tenant signs at Kati 2, project debt covers about 80% of the cost, and share sales stop.
What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
100%
of 2, 1 Sep
Four months earlier
100%
of 1, 1 Mar
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C18management claimmedium confidence
The company reports a 6.3 GW development pipeline in August 2026, up from 4.3 GW in March: 192 MW operating, 14 MW in construction, about 1.6 GW in planning and development and about 4.5 GW 'in assessment with power partners', held mostly through power term sheets.
sourceQ2 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K of 13…primaryFiscal 2025 results release, Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K of 30…primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary
against this
- The MD&A describes Rosa, Hedy, Ellen, Annie, Fei and Gladys as signed term sheets for power with purchase agreements still being drafted; none is a contract.
- Four sites grew by about 300 MW in a quarter through enlarged term sheets rather than any new generation.
C42facthigh confidence
Four analysts asked questions on the Q2 2026 call, one from H.C. Wainwright, the agent selling the company's shares; none asked about share issuance, and FMP's panel holds one to two analysts, all Buy.
C44facthigh confidence
The shares closed August 2025 at $0.47, hit $5.14 on 16 October 2025 and closed December at $1.17; in 2025 the company sold 23.6 million shares through the ATM for $34.2M and raised $32M in a December offering.
C45facthigh confidence
The shares closed March 2026 at $0.71, reached $1.83 on 8 May after the Briscoe and Dorothy 1A purchases, and closed August at $1.08; the ATM sold 74.2 million shares in Q2 2026.
C31management claimmedium confidence
The finance chief says AI projects can be financed about 80% with project debt, with the other 20% from equity or joint-venture partners.
against this
- The one project lender the company had, Generate, required a prepayment with a premium to waive a covenant in August 2026 and was repaid in full by 26 October (C26).
- Metrobloks, the Kati 2 partner, contributed no capital (C12), so the equity share falls to Soluna unless another partner is found.
- 2026-10-26editedthe lender named in this counter-evidence was repaid in full per the 26 October release
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- Connections smaller than the plans. Kati 2 holds 83 MW of grid position against a 100 MW plan; all of Dorothy holds 100 MW, 98 of it serving bitcoin today.
- Doubts about survival. The auditor flagged substantial doubt about the company's survival for 2025, judged relieved only by management's financing plans.
- A partner that paid nothing. At Kati 2, Metrobloks put in no money yet takes half the cash once Soluna recovers its own, plus a 14% return.
- A tenant owned by the partner. ChronoScale, which signed only a letter of intent for Dorothy 3, is majority-owned by Applied, the partner taking 51%.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C14facthigh confidence
The company's own documents name Kati 2 at 100 MW of AI load rising to 350 MW and Dorothy 3 at 300 MW, while the grid positions it reports are 83 MW for Kati 2 and 100 MW for all of Dorothy, 98 MW of which serves bitcoin load today.
C49facthigh confidence
The auditor, KPMG, made the going-concern assessment a critical audit matter for 2025, saying losses, cash burn, debt and spending commitments raised substantial doubt, which management's financing plans were judged to relieve.
C12facthigh confidence
In the Kati 2 joint venture Soluna put in $6.7M and committed $19.1M more for land plus up to $2.0M of costs; Metrobloks put in nothing and takes 50% of cash after Soluna recovers its money, a 14% return and $100,000 a megawatt.
C64facthigh confidence
On 21 October 2026 Soluna announced a definitive agreement with Applied Digital to form a jointly owned company, Applied expected to hold 51% and Soluna 49%, to develop a planned 50 MW AI data centre at Dorothy 3; Soluna contributes a portion of the site, land and power-related assets and Applied provides capital, and ChronoScale, which Applied majority-owns, signed a non-binding letter of intent to lease it; closing by the end of 2026 depends on a Briscoe County tax abatement, title policies, an operating agreement, definitive leases and power agreements.
against this
- The release gives no amount of capital, rent, lease term or power price, and the lease is a non-binding letter of intent, not a lease.
- The prospective tenant is majority-owned by the partner taking 51%, so the lease is between companies under one owner's influence, not an arm's-length customer.
What we still do not know
- How much Applied Digital pays into Dorothy 3, and on what rent. The release gives neither, and the lease is only a letter of intent.
- What Texas's audit leaves of the recognised connections. The grid operator's review is targeted for December 2026.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C51estimatemedium confidence
Kati 2's first 100 MW at a rival's $11M to $13M a megawatt costs $1.1B to $1.3B; with 80% project debt the equity is $220M to $260M, more than June's cash, and raised in common at $0.577 it is 381 to 451 million new shares.
against this
- A joint-venture or project equity partner could fund most of the 20%, as Spring Lane did for Dorothy 2 and Kati 1, leaving the common less diluted (C24).
- An owned wind farm and an existing substation could put the build below a greenfield rival's cost.
- A signed lease would likely lift the share price, so equity raised afterwards would need fewer shares.
- 2026-09-26editedre-struck at the 25 September 2026 close of $1.22 from $1.25: the equity is 180 to 213 million new shares rather than 176 to 208
- 2026-10-02editedre-struck at the 1 October 2026 close of $1.06 (FMP end-of-day) from $1.22 after a 13.1% fall: the equity is 208 to 245 million new shares rather than 180 to 213
- 2026-10-21editedre-struck at the 20 October 2026 close of $0.577 from $1.06 after a 45.6% fall: the equity is 381 to 451 million new shares rather than 208 to 245; the Dorothy 3 partner funding is a different build.
C12facthigh confidence
In the Kati 2 joint venture Soluna put in $6.7M and committed $19.1M more for land plus up to $2.0M of costs; Metrobloks put in nothing and takes 50% of cash after Soluna recovers its money, a 14% return and $100,000 a megawatt.
C13facthigh confidence
ERCOT has conditionally classified the 166 MW Kati campus, 83 MW of it for Kati 2, and the 100 MW Dorothy campus as existing load in its Batch Zero process; a further 50 MW at Dorothy is being studied.
C33facthigh confidence
Texas's governor ordered on 3 August 2026 that no data centre move forward in the grid connection process until regulators audit them all, against about 474 gigawatts of requests; ERCOT counts more than 438,000 MW of large-load requests, 89% data centres.
C64facthigh confidence
On 21 October 2026 Soluna announced a definitive agreement with Applied Digital to form a jointly owned company, Applied expected to hold 51% and Soluna 49%, to develop a planned 50 MW AI data centre at Dorothy 3; Soluna contributes a portion of the site, land and power-related assets and Applied provides capital, and ChronoScale, which Applied majority-owns, signed a non-binding letter of intent to lease it; closing by the end of 2026 depends on a Briscoe County tax abatement, title policies, an operating agreement, definitive leases and power agreements.
against this
- The release gives no amount of capital, rent, lease term or power price, and the lease is a non-binding letter of intent, not a lease.
- The prospective tenant is majority-owned by the partner taking 51%, so the lease is between companies under one owner's influence, not an arm's-length customer.
What would change our view
- Unattractive→NeutralA signed AI lease, funded without the common
It needs all of:
- ○A signed lease for Kati 2 or Dorothy 3 is filed, naming the tenant, megawatts, term and rent.watched as it happens
- ○Project debt of about 80% of cost closes, with the rest mainly from a partner rather than new shares.watched as it happens
- Unattractive→NeutralThe share count stops rising
It needs all of:
- ○Two quarters running with no shares sold to raise money, and share-based pay below $5M a quarter.checked at the next results, due by 12 Nov
- ○The hosting sites earn enough to cover head-office cash costs, so operations stop using cash.checked at the next results, due by 12 Nov
We would also be wrong if
- No AI lease is signed at Kati 2 or Dorothy 3 by 30 June 2027.
- Texas's grid operator removes or cuts the recognised connections at Kati or Dorothy.
- A remaining lender demands early repayment, or loan debt rises again before a lease is funded.
What is coming
- November 2026 Bitdeer's 35 MW at Kati 1 finishes: Whether Kati 1 runs full on shared-output mining, which lifts own-mining revenue but ties the result to the bitcoin price.
Every dated event ahead
- November 2026 Bitdeer's 35 MW at Kati 1 finishes: Whether Kati 1 runs full on shared-output mining, which lifts own-mining revenue but ties the result to the bitcoin price.
- 12 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether a Kati 2 lease is signed, what the October loan repayment left of the cash, and how many shares were sold.
- 31 December 2026 Dorothy 3 joint company closes: Whether the Briscoe County tax abatement is approved and ChronoScale's non-binding letter becomes a definitive lease.
- 15 January 2027 Last True-Up grant to insiders: Whether the dilution-linked insider grants actually end as voted, or are replaced by another share-based arrangement.
- March 2027 Las Majadas substation adds 100 MW: Whether Kati's grid position grows enough to carry the AI load the company names for Kati 2.
Since we wrote this
Written
25 Sep
Price the thesis read
$1.22
25 Sep
Latest close
$0.79
close, · -35.2% since
- 26 OctNewsSoluna repays its Generate loan in fullDebt falls from $37.9M to $9.2M and the lender test that worried us is gone. No lease or share-count change, so Unattractive holds.
- 21 OctNewsApplied Digital to fund a Dorothy 3 hall; lease only a letterA partner agreed to fund a 50 MW hall, but its tenant has signed a non-binding letter and the shares fell 46% to $0.577. The view held.
- 20 OctNewsHolders approved up to 1 billion sharesThe 16 October vote passed, removing the limit on share-funded growth. The view held because the case already expected the issuing.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe bet now names what it ridesThe owner asked that every bet name the macro trend behind it, after BWXT's bet was missing its chief executive's case for nuclear over gas.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
- 3 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Priced for success to SpeculationRe-priced at the 2 October close; the rating moved from Expensive bet to Fair bet.
- 2 OctPrice movePrice re-struck at $1.06; view heldThe shares fell 13.1% with no news behind it. The common is now worth about $262M and a share-funded lease would need 208 to 245 million new shares. No lease, funding or lender change, so the view stands.
- 29 SepNewsBitdeer adds 7 MW at Kati 1; still no AI leaseBitdeer's bitcoin mining at Kati 1 grows from about 28 MW to about 35 MW on a profit share. It is bitcoin, not AI, so the case that no AI tenant has signed stands.
- 26 SepThesis reviewPrice re-struck at $1.22; loss split into group and shareholders; view heldA data fix refreshed the numbers. The common is worth about $301M at the new close, the half-year loss is $38.2M for shareholders against $40.5M for the group, and nothing the view rests on moved.
- 25 SepThesis writtenUnattractive, medium convictionWritten from the June-quarter filing: the sites lose money before head office, the grid positions are smaller than the named campuses, and the share count rose about twelvefold in a year.
Also checked 3 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 39
Where this came from
Sources - 39
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-03-30Item 1 business, projects and competition (22 named rivals), Item 1A risk factors including the terminated HPE agreement, 2025 customer concentration, headcount, the auditor's going-concern critical audit matter and Note 1backsC05C06C27C44C47C49C61C62
- S02primarycompany release2026-03-30the 4.3 GW pipeline at March 2026, $142M raised in 2025 and the Metrobloks memorandum for Kati 2 at '100+ MW' with a roadmap 'to over 300 MW'
In 2025, the Company signed an MOU with Metrobloks for an initial 100+ MW critical IT development, with a roadmap to expand to over 300 MW.
backsC18 - S03primarycompany filing2026-08-13the statements; Notes 1, 2, 5 (Briscoe), 10 (debt and the Generate covenant), 11 (preferred, share counts, SEPA and ATM), 12, 14 (stock awards), 16 (Dorothy 2, Kati 1 and Kati 2 variable interest entities and their waterfalls), 17 (segments and concentration), 18; MD&A pipeline table, HPC section and liquidity; the two new risk factorsbacksC01C02C03C04C05C07C08C11C12C14C16C18C19C20C21C23C24C26C27C28C40C42C43C44C45C47C61
- S04primarycompany release2026-08-13the pass-through presentation change, the 6.3 GW pipeline split, Kati 1's first gross profit, the adjusted EBITDA reconciliation and the post-quarter share count
As of August 1, 2026, Soluna operated approximately 192 MW across three fully energized sites, with an additional 14 MW under construction at Project Kati 1.
backsC02C18C46C48 - S05primarytranscript2026-08-13Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 13 August 2026management on the Kati 2 letter of intent, the 15-month build, the Las Majadas substation expansion and gas firming, the ERCOT audit and 80% loan-to-cost project debt; eleven analyst turns from four analysts (H.C. Wainwright, Compass Point, Rosenblatt, Water Tower Research), the questions a separate origin from the answers
engineering is underway to expand the Las Majadas substation by an additional 100 megawatts in support of future phases with those upgrades expected early next year. And we executed a gas pipeline access agreement to improve resiliency.
backsC11C16C17C31C42 - S06primarycompany release2026-08-24397 acres closed for a planned campus 'with a potential capacity of up to 300 MW'; no price, tenant or financing
The land will host Project Dorothy 3, Soluna's planned renewable-first AI computing campus with a potential capacity of up to 300 MW.
backsC14 - S07primarycompany release2026-08-2528 MW, 1.93 EH/s, deployment from September 2026, Bitdeer owns the machines and the parties share mining proceeds
Bitdeer will deploy approximately 28 MW of Bitcoin mining equipment, representing approximately 1.93 EH/s of hash rate, at Soluna's Project Kati 1 in South Texas.
backsC10 - S08primarycompany release2026-09-08Kati 1 fully energised at 83 MW, 206 MW operating, and ERCOT's conditional Base Load classification of the 166 MW Kati campus, of which 83 MW is Kati 2
Kati 1, the 83 MW first phase, is dedicated to Bitcoin hosting. Kati 2 will add 83 MW for AI and high-performance computing.
backsC13C14C48 - S09primarycompany release2026-09-14ERCOT's conditional Base Load classification of the 100 MW Dorothy campus, 98 MW of which is energised Dorothy 1 and 2, and a further 50 MW request under study by the wires utility
Project Dorothy is a 100 MW wind-powered campus in Briscoe County, Texas, built behind the meter at the 150 MW Briscoe Wind Farm, which Soluna acquired in April 2026. Dorothy 1 and Dorothy 2 account for 98 MW of energized capacity.
backsC13C14 - S10primarycompany filing2026-08-24the proposals to raise authorised common shares to 1,000,000,000 and to lift the 20% cap on the $250M equity line, 246,702,047 shares at the 21 August record date, the 2025 summary compensation table and the evergreen plan reservesbacksC19C22C25C41C57C58C59C60C63
- S11primarycompany filing2026-02-26Helios: 133 MW of critical IT load on about 200 MW of gross power for CoreWeave on a 15-year lease, 393 MW more leased, and 1.6 GW of gross power approved by ERCOT in the West Texas panhandlebacksC09
- S12primarycompany filing2025-12-11the counterparty's own statement of its hosting agreement with SolunabacksC08
- S13primarycompany filing2026-07-291,410 MW of executed 15-year leases worth about $36.2B, and a 150 MW design built in 14 to 18 monthsbacksC29
- S14primarytranscript2026-07-27Applied Digital fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript, held 27 July 2026 Applied Digitala rival's build cost per megawatt, raised by an analyst and answered by the chief executive
it appears your projects are still tracking in that $11 million to $13 million per megawatt range
backsC30 - S15primarycompany filing2026-03-02its three segments, one of them 'Digital Asset Hosted Mining', hosting other companies' mining machinesbacksC32
- S16primaryregulator2026-06-18the size and composition of the large-load queue behind Batch Zero
ERCOT is tracking more than 438,000 MW of large load requests, nearly 89 percent from data centers alone.
backsC33 - S17primaryregulator2026-08-03Office of the Texas Governor, 3 August 2026: Governor Abbott directs comprehensive data center audit Office of the Texas Governorthe audit directive, the 474 GW of requests and the rule that no data centre moves forward until it is done
ERCOT is currently considering approximately over 474 gigawatts of requests to connect to the Texas grid, more than five times Texas’ record peak electricity demand for ERCOT. The PUCT and ERCOT must complete this audit before any data center project moves forward. Any project that fails to comply with the requirements set forth by the PUCT and ERCOT will be denied connection to the Texas grid.
backsC33 - S18primarygovernment data2023-07-13a statistical agency's measure of the wasted wind and solar the company's model rests on
In 2022, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid manager for most of Texas, curtailed 5% of its total available wind generation and 9% of total available utility-scale solar generation. By 2035, however, we project wind curtailments in ERCOT could increase to 13% of total available wind generation, and solar curtailments could reach 19%.
backsC34 - S19primarygovernment data2025-11-06the rate at which Texas grid demand is growing
From January through September 2025, demand for electric power in ERCOT increased 5% compared with the same period in 2024 to 372 terawatthours (TWh), 23% more than the same months in 2021. Together, wind and solar generation met 36% of ERCOT’s electricity demand in the first nine months of 2025.
backsC35 - S20primarygovernment data2026-05-19a government measure of the load the AI driver adds
Across all cases, servers alone accounted for an estimated 7% of commercial sector electricity consumption in 2025. Data center server electricity use grows to 22%-33% of commercial building electricity use by 2050 across our cases.
backsC36 - S21primaryindustry data2026-04-07Synergy Research Group: hyperscale operators to account for 67% of all data center capacity by 2031 Synergy Research Groupthe leased share of hyperscale capacity, and so how much of the buyer class builds for itself
Almost 60% of that hyperscale capacity is now in own-built, owned data centers with the balance being in leased facilities.
backsC37 - S22primaryindustry data2026-08-01vacancy, construction and pre-leasing. CBRE returned 403 to curl on 25 September 2026; the passage is the one this repo froze in the BTDR thesis on 19 September 2026, and that is the retrieval date carried
primary market vacancy fell to a record low of 1.4% in H1 from 1.6% in H1 2025. Total under-construction capacity across primary markets increased by 24.8% in H1 to a record high of 7,481.1 MW. Preleasing activity accelerated with commitments made on 80.4% of all under-construction capacity, compared with 74.3% a year ago.
backsC38 - S23primaryindustry data2026-09-24network hash rate and total miner revenue per day, from which revenue per petahash per day was computed
hash-rate 2026-09-24: 923,914,588 TH/s; 2025-09-25: 997,700,373 TH/s; 2026-06-30: 991,551,271 TH/s. miners-revenue 2026-09-24: $39,709,877 per day; 2025-09-25: $50,173,577; 2026-06-30: $32,232,726
backsC39 - S24secondaryvendor data2026-09-25Research pack, 25 September 2026 (FMP market tier; FINRA short interest; price series; consensus history)the $1.25 close of 24 September 2026, the 52-week range, the price-move decomposition, FINRA short interest at the 15 September settlement, the analyst panel, and the $12.82 Series A preferred quotebacksC23C41C42C44C45C52
- S25primarycompany filing2026-09-24five open-market purchases of 200,000 shares by the chief executive and finance chief, 39 open-market sales of 173,257 shares of which 36 discretionary, and the December 2025 grantsbacksC43
- S26primarycompany filing2026-06-09the joint venture's membership, capital-contribution and distribution articles; the 10-Q's Note 16 summary of the waterfall was checked against itbacksC12
- S27primarycompany release2026-06-09regained Nasdaq compliance and an investment bank engaged for Kati 2 capitalbacksC52
- S28primarycompany release2026-07-14Russell index inclusion and site operations 'at full capacity' through the summer peak-pricing curtailmentsread, but no claim rests on it
- S29primarycompany filing2026-08-10Helios developed at 133 MW of critical IT load on about 200 MW of gross power, and 393 MW more leased on 600 MWbacksC09
- S30secondaryvendor data2026-09-26Research pack, refreshed 26 September 2026, frozen at content/SLNH/research-pack.json (FMP market tier; filed statements with the shareholders' net loss)the $1.22 close of 25 September 2026 and the price-move decomposition over the 252 sessions to that closebacksC40
- S31primarycompany release2026-09-28the added 7 MW, 35 MW and 2.42 EH/s in total, completion in November 2026, the K1BC phase fully subscribed, same co-mining structure
Bitdeer will deploy approximately 7 MW of additional Bitcoin mining equipment at Soluna's Project Kati 1 in South Texas, bringing its total deployment at the site to 35 MW and approximately 2.42 EH/s of hash rate.
backsC10 - S32primaryindustry data2026-08-11a leasing broker's measure of North American absorption, construction, pre-commitment and Texas capacity, the tenant mix (hyperscalers 59%, neoclouds 11%, AI companies 7%) and its expectation of near-zero vacancy through 2028; read through ir_fetch
North America data center demand reached an all-time high in the first half of 2026 with 25 GW of absorption, double the level from a year ago and five times that of two years prior. ... North America now has 66 GW under construction, 95% of which is pre-committed. Texas has cemented its position as the state for data centers, with 26 GW of existing and under-construction capacity ... “What’s remarkable is that even with 66 gigawatts under construction, we’re likely to see vacancy remain near zero through 2028.”
backsC53 - S33primarygovernment data2024-12-20US Department of Energy press release - DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers (LBNL 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report) US Department of Energy / Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratorythe government laboratory's range for US data-centre electricity use in 2028, an independent bound on how much new load there is to house; read through ir_fetch
The report finds that data centers consumed about 4.4% of total U.S. electricity in 2023 and are expected to consume approximately 6.7 to 12% of total U.S. electricity by 2028. The report indicates that total data center electricity usage climbed from 58 TWh in 2014 to 176 TWh in 2023 and estimates an increase between 325 to 580 TWh by 2028.
backsC54 - S34secondaryindustry data2026-09-15CoinShares, Bitcoin mining report - Q2 2026 CoinSharesan asset manager's tally, from the listed miners' own disclosures, of AI capacity contracted and billing across the converting miners, their backlog and annualised revenue, conversion cost a megawatt and the sales multiples the market pays with and without a tenant; read through ir_fetch
Companies with contracted AI or HPC capacity trade at an average 12.9x EV/NTM sales, compared with 3.7x for the mining companies without contracts. ... More than US$100bn of disclosed backlog currently supports only around US$1.1bn of annualised AI/HPC revenue, with roughly 550MW billing against more than 4GW contracted. ... More than 4GW of IT capacity is now contracted across the companies covered, but only around 550MW is billing. Disclosed backlogs of more than US$100bn therefore sit against less than US$800m of annualised colocation revenue. ... Converting mining infrastructure to AI grade facilities costs an estimated US$8m to US$15m per MW against US$0.7m to US$1m for mining
backsC55 - S35secondaryindustry data2026-03-25CoinShares, Bitcoin Mining Report - Q1 2026 CoinSharesthe same tally six months earlier, so the pace at which converting miners sign AI contracts; read through ir_fetch
Over the course of 2025 and early 2026, Bitcoin miners have signed a number of GPU co-location and cloud service deals with hyperscalers, worth over US$70 billion in aggregate.
backsC55 - S36primarycompany filing2026-10-19the vote counts on raising authorised common shares to 1 billion and on the equity line's 20% exchange cap; the amendment's effect on 16 OctoberbacksC25
- S37primarycompany filing2026-10-21the definitive agreement to form a jointly owned company with Applied Digital for a 50 MW AI data centre at Dorothy 3, the 51%/49% split, the closing conditions and ChronoScale's non-binding letter of intentbacksC11C29C64
- S38secondaryvendor data2026-10-21FMP end-of-day prices, SLNH, close of 2026-10-20the $0.577 close of 2026-10-20, the last completed sessionbacksC50C51
- S39primarycompany filing2026-10-26that the Generate facility was repaid in full ($19.1M in August, the rest in October), terminated and its liens released, and that total debt principal fell from $37.9M at 30 June to $9.2MbacksC26C27