← All thesesHUTNeutralMedium convictionSunday 18 October 2026עברית

Hut 8

A former bitcoin miner turning into a landlord for AI: it builds power-hungry data centres in Louisiana and Texas and rents them whole to two tenants for 15 years.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 →

Revenue more than doubled in a year, but all of it is American Bitcoin's mining and the bitcoin price; no rent has printed.

Business quality3/4 →

Contracted utility power won two top-rated tenants on 15-year leases with no warrants given, but rivals lease to the same tenant and buyers mostly self-build.

Financial position2/4 ↑

Two campuses are funded by non-recourse notes and the parent owes little, but Phase 2 needs money not yet raised.

Execution record3/4 →

Each financing improved on the last and no date has moved yet, but no AI hall has been delivered, so the record is too short.

Per share capture2/4 ↓

Shares up 11.9% in six months, $51.2M a quarter of stock pay, and awards paying up to three times on market value.

Potential3/4 →

A bounded, committed upside: 949 MW signed, two campuses financed and dated. Not a 4 - the expansion waits on Entergy, unsigned.

Risk profile2/4 ↓

One unnamed tenant holds 74% of contracted rent, and Beacon Point sits in a state that has paused data centre projects for audit.

Valuation3/4 ↑

10.8 times contracted NOI prices the signed rent roughly as described and nothing for the expansion. Not a 4 - nothing bills yet.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Leases, notes, shares and awards are filed facts; NOI and cash flow are presentation figures, and the Beacon Point tenant is unnamed.

The bet · 2-3 years
Priced for success1.4×

If it works 1.4× · if it fails you keep about 13%.

The Verdict

We rate Hut 8 neutral. It has leased 949 megawatts of data centres for 15 years to a Google-backed Fluidstack and a top-rated technology company, but none of it pays rent before 2027, so the business is mixed for now. The price pays roughly what that signed rent is worth after head-office costs and stock pay, so it is fair, not cheap. As a bet it is fragile: if River Bend's expansion is leased on the same terms, the shares are worth well under twice today's; if the build fails, lenders come first and little is left.

The long caseAI needs new buildings with power already connected, and Hut 8 found the power first; long leases to top-rated tenants turn that power into rent for fifteen years.

The evidence under this - 9 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Hut 8 leased 245 MW of IT capacity at River Bend, Louisiana, to Fluidstack for 15 years, triple-net, at $7.0B of base-term rent with a 3% escalator; Google backstops the lease payments and pass-through obligations.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C02facthigh confidence
In the spring of 2026 Hut 8 leased 352 MW of IT capacity at Beacon Point, Texas, for 15 years, triple-net and take-or-pay, at $9.8B of base-term rent, to an unnamed tenant rated AA- or higher.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C03facthigh confidence
In July 2026 the same tenant leased Beacon Point Phase 2, another 352 MW for 15 years at $9.8B, first hall in Q2 2028, bringing the campus to 704 MW and $19.6B, or $50.2B with renewals.
current state · 2026-07-20written 2026-10-18
C17estimatemedium confidence
At $67.75 the leasing business is priced at about $7.24B of equity; with $7.5B of project notes and an assumed $4.25B for Phase 2 that is about $19.0B, 10.8 times $1.764B of average NOI, or 11.4 times after cash overhead.
derivedC18's $8.35B market value less C16's $1.11B; plus C07's and C08's $7.5B and Phase 2 debt assumed equal to C08's; NOI from C04 ($454M plus $1.31B); C48's $99M of cash overhead. Each turn of the multiple is about $14.30 a share
against this
  • Phase 2's financing is assumed, not raised (C09): equity in place of debt would lower the multiple and dilute the shares instead.
  • A multiple of NOI suits a perpetual property; these notes amortise to zero by 2042 and value past the base term depends on renewals the tenants choose.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
C48estimatemedium confidence
Overhead runs about $300M a year at Q2's pace, about $99M of cash administration and $205M of stock pay, together about 17% of the leases' expected average NOI.
derivedC20's $76.1M administrative cost less its $51.2M of stock pay, each times four, against C04's $1.764B
against this

Part of the cost is American Bitcoin's, and part of the stock pay is the one-off November 2025 awards (C24), so a steady-state figure may be lower.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C05facthigh confidence
The River Bend lease gives Fluidstack a right of first offer on up to 1,000 MW more IT capacity, subject to more power at the site, and Hut 8 and Anthropic may jointly develop up to 1,050 MW more elsewhere.
against this

Both are options, not leases: nothing is priced, the River Bend right depends on Entergy expanding power, and the Anthropic capacity is 'may jointly diligence and develop'.

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C16estimatemedium confidence
What the market value holds besides the leases is about $1.11B: Hut 8's 9,314 bitcoin at $81,500 less the $200M FalconX loan, 53.63% of American Bitcoin at its quote, and about $255M of parent cash.
derivedC13's 9,314 bitcoin at C15's $81,500 is $759M, less C11's $200M loan; C14's 53.63% of C15's $550.5M is $295M; parent cash is the release's $7.6B attributable to Hut 8 less C10's restricted cash and Hut 8's bitcoin at the June mark
against this
  • The parent cash is derived by subtraction, not stated; it moves with every quarter's spending.
  • American Bitcoin trades below the bitcoin it holds, so valuing the stake at its quote is the low reading; at its coin it would be worth more, but its miner liabilities rank first.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
C07facthigh confidence
River Bend is funded by $3.25B of 6.192% senior secured notes due November 2042, issued by a project subsidiary, amortising from May 2028, without recourse to Hut 8; loan-to-cost rose to 95% and $184M of equity came back.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C08facthigh confidence
Beacon Point Phase 1 is funded by $4.25B of 6.129% senior secured notes due November 2042, rated Baa2, amortising from May 2030, without recourse to Hut 8.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
01

The company

AI companies need buildings full of chips, and those buildings need enormous amounts of electricity that most sites cannot get for years. Hut 8 secures the land and the power, builds the shell, cooling and electrical plant, and rents the finished hall to a tenant who brings the chips.

Its buyers are AI labs and the very largest technology companies. Without a landlord they wait in a utility's queue or build their own, which is what most of them still do.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Hut 8 leased 245 MW of IT capacity at River Bend, Louisiana, to Fluidstack for 15 years, triple-net, at $7.0B of base-term rent with a 3% escalator; Google backstops the lease payments and pass-through obligations.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C02facthigh confidence
In the spring of 2026 Hut 8 leased 352 MW of IT capacity at Beacon Point, Texas, for 15 years, triple-net and take-or-pay, at $9.8B of base-term rent, to an unnamed tenant rated AA- or higher.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C30facthigh confidence
Synergy Research measures almost 60% of hyperscale capacity as own-built and owned, the balance leased.
current state · 2026-04-07written 2026-10-18
C31facthigh confidence
JLL measured a record 25 GW of North American absorption in H1 2026, double a year earlier, with 66 GW under construction, 95% pre-committed, and 28 GW of it owner-occupied.
current state · 2026-08-11written 2026-10-18
C33facthigh confidence
Louisiana's economic development agency says Entergy Louisiana will supply an initial 330 MW to River Bend, an up to $10B first phase, and the campus can scale to up to 1,000 MW of utility capacity.
against this

No Louisiana Public Service Commission docket approving the expansion was found; the 1,000 MW is a potential, not a contracted supply.

current state · 2025-12-17written 2026-10-18
C39management claimmedium confidence
Jacobs builds River Bend with Vertiv on a guaranteed-maximum-price contract at $9-11M per MW, first hall due Q2 2027; Beacon Point is due to energise in Q1 2027 and deliver its first hall in Q3 2027.
against this
  • Hut 8 has never delivered an AI data hall; its 10-K warns that delays can bring liquidated damages, defer rent or let a tenant terminate (C44).
  • Rival builds for the same tenant have slipped: Cipher's Barber Lake moved a quarter in 2026 with excess cost on the landlord.
forwardwritten 2026-10-18

How it makes money

Once a hall is finished, the tenant pays a fixed monthly rent that rises 3% a year for 15 years, and pays the power and running costs too. So almost every rent dollar is profit before debt.

Until then the money comes from American Bitcoin's mining, which moves with the bitcoin price and has lost money in each of the last four quarters.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Hut 8 leased 245 MW of IT capacity at River Bend, Louisiana, to Fluidstack for 15 years, triple-net, at $7.0B of base-term rent with a 3% escalator; Google backstops the lease payments and pass-through obligations.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C04management claimmedium confidence
Management expects about $454M a year of average NOI from River Bend and about $1.31B from Beacon Point, over $1.75B across 949 MW and $26.6B of base-term rent, at about a 99% margin because tenants pay the running costs.
against this
  • These are presentation figures, not filed lessor schedules: no lease has commenced, so no 10-Q yet shows contracted rent.
  • Average NOI over 15 years includes the 3% escalator, so the early years earn less: Beacon Point Phase 1's own table starts at $489M in 2028 against a $653M average.
forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C20facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue was $74.9M, $72.5M of it Compute on about 935 bitcoin mined; the net loss was $177.1M after a $138.6M loss on bitcoin and $76.1M of administrative cost, $51.2M of it stock pay.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-18
C21facthigh confidence
Revenue was $318.0M in the year to June 2026 against $138.5M a year earlier; of 2025's $235.1M, Compute was $202.3M, and every one of the last four quarters lost money.
historical · TTM to 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (Q2 2026)How it earns it
ASIC compute (bitcoin mining through American Bitcoin)97%Bitcoin earned by American Bitcoin's machines, booked as revenue when received; about 935 bitcoin in the quarter.
Colocation and other digital infrastructure2%Hosting and colocation for third parties; the 50% King Mountain venture's $27.0M share sits below the revenue line.
Power and managed services2%Managed power services; the Ontario gas plants that earned most of it were sold in February 2026.
AI data centre leases0% filed; first rent due Q2 202715-year triple-net leases of whole campuses to Fluidstack and an unnamed top-rated tenant, 949 MW in all.

Who runs it

Asher Genoot, a co-founder of the business that merged into Hut 8 in 2023, has been chief executive since February 2024. Under him it signed every lease and raised $7.5B of project debt. He owns 3.5%; Michael Ho, the strategy chief, owns 5.6% and hedged part of it in September.

Their big awards pay out as the company's market value rises, up to 3 times the target shares at the top tier. Nothing in them rewards rent, cash or value per share.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C51facthigh confidence
Asher Genoot has been chief executive since February 2024; at April 2026 he owned 3.5%, strategy chief Michael Ho 5.6%, all directors and officers 10.4%, and BlackRock 6.0%.
current state · 2026-04-13written 2026-10-18
C07facthigh confidence
River Bend is funded by $3.25B of 6.192% senior secured notes due November 2042, issued by a project subsidiary, amortising from May 2028, without recourse to Hut 8; loan-to-cost rose to 95% and $184M of equity came back.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C08facthigh confidence
Beacon Point Phase 1 is funded by $4.25B of 6.129% senior secured notes due November 2042, rated Baa2, amortising from May 2030, without recourse to Hut 8.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C26facthigh confidence
Insiders made no open-market purchases in the year and 16 sales, 13 of them discretionary; on 29 September the strategy chief hedged 1.5M shares in a forward with a $40 floor and $58.3M paid upfront.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-18
C24facthigh confidence
November 2025 awards gave the chief executive 2,339,272 restricted units plus, with the strategy chief, 2,023,156 performance units at target, half paying up to three times as market value reaches 314% of $2.228B.
current state · 2026-04-28written 2026-10-18
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

What Hut 8 has that a tenant cannot buy quickly is connected power. Entergy Louisiana will supply River Bend, and AEP Texas has agreed to connect all of Beacon Point.

Outside evidence says that power is scarce: 95% of the North American capacity under construction is already spoken for. The leases themselves are the proof it works: two top-rated tenants signed before a building stood, and Hut 8 gave Google nothing for its guarantee, where Cipher gave Google warrants for its own.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C31facthigh confidence
JLL measured a record 25 GW of North American absorption in H1 2026, double a year earlier, with 66 GW under construction, 95% pre-committed, and 28 GW of it owner-occupied.
current state · 2026-08-11written 2026-10-18
C33facthigh confidence
Louisiana's economic development agency says Entergy Louisiana will supply an initial 330 MW to River Bend, an up to $10B first phase, and the campus can scale to up to 1,000 MW of utility capacity.
against this

No Louisiana Public Service Commission docket approving the expansion was found; the 1,000 MW is a potential, not a contracted supply.

current state · 2025-12-17written 2026-10-18
C35management claimmedium confidence
Hut 8 says Beacon Point's full 1,000 MW is secured under an AEP Texas interconnection agreement, energisation remains on schedule for Q1 2027, and it gave regulators the site's water and power data.
against this

The Governor's audit and permit halt (C34) post-date the interconnection agreement and do not exempt existing projects in their words.

current state · 2026-08-04written 2026-10-18
C01facthigh confidence
Hut 8 leased 245 MW of IT capacity at River Bend, Louisiana, to Fluidstack for 15 years, triple-net, at $7.0B of base-term rent with a 3% escalator; Google backstops the lease payments and pass-through obligations.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C02facthigh confidence
In the spring of 2026 Hut 8 leased 352 MW of IT capacity at Beacon Point, Texas, for 15 years, triple-net and take-or-pay, at $9.8B of base-term rent, to an unnamed tenant rated AA- or higher.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C36facthigh confidence
Hut 8 issued no equity or warrants for Google's River Bend backstop, while Cipher issued Google warrants for 24,178,576 shares for backstopping Fluidstack's lease at Barber Lake.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18

The threat

The biggest rival is the customer itself: almost 60% of the largest technology companies' capacity is built and owned by them. Former miners compete for the same tenants, and TeraWulf and Cipher also lease to Fluidstack. Applied Digital has signed 15-year leases with two investment-grade giants.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C30facthigh confidence
Synergy Research measures almost 60% of hyperscale capacity as own-built and owned, the balance leased.
current state · 2026-04-07written 2026-10-18
C36facthigh confidence
Hut 8 issued no equity or warrants for Google's River Bend backstop, while Cipher issued Google warrants for 24,178,576 shares for backstopping Fluidstack's lease at Barber Lake.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C37facthigh confidence
TeraWulf leases its Lake Mariner campus in New York to Fluidstack and had energised 102 MW by July 2026.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C38facthigh confidence
Applied Digital signed about 15-year leases with two U.S. investment-grade hyperscalers for 200 MW and 300 MW of critical IT load.
current state · 2026-05-31written 2026-10-18

The rivals: AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, META, CIFR, WULF, APLD, MARA, RIOT, CLSK.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
AMZN · GOOGL · MSFT · METAAmazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta building their own capacityPriced against it: Not checkedAI data center leasingOn saleNot checked
CIFRCipher Digital Inc.Priced against it: Not checkedAI data center leasingOn saleNot checked
WULFTeraWulf Inc.Priced against it: Not checkedAI data center leasingOn saleNot checked
APLDApplied Digital CorporationPriced against it: Not checkedAI data center leasingOn saleNot checked
MARA · RIOT · CLSKMARA Holdings, Riot Platforms, CleanSpark and every other miner adding computing powerPriced against it: Not checkedAmerican Bitcoin (ASIC compute)On saleNot checked
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

Nobody publishes the size of the market for leased AI halls, so the case is not built on one. What is measured points one way: North America absorbed a record 25 gigawatts of data-centre capacity in the first half of 2026, double a year earlier.

Hut 8's own ceiling is set by its utilities. River Bend can grow to 1,000 megawatts of power, and Fluidstack holds the first offer on up to 1,000 megawatts more of halls.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C31facthigh confidence
JLL measured a record 25 GW of North American absorption in H1 2026, double a year earlier, with 66 GW under construction, 95% pre-committed, and 28 GW of it owner-occupied.
current state · 2026-08-11written 2026-10-18
C33facthigh confidence
Louisiana's economic development agency says Entergy Louisiana will supply an initial 330 MW to River Bend, an up to $10B first phase, and the campus can scale to up to 1,000 MW of utility capacity.
against this

No Louisiana Public Service Commission docket approving the expansion was found; the 1,000 MW is a potential, not a contracted supply.

current state · 2025-12-17written 2026-10-18
C05facthigh confidence
The River Bend lease gives Fluidstack a right of first offer on up to 1,000 MW more IT capacity, subject to more power at the site, and Hut 8 and Anthropic may jointly develop up to 1,050 MW more elsewhere.
against this

Both are options, not leases: nothing is priced, the River Bend right depends on Entergy expanding power, and the Anthropic capacity is 'may jointly diligence and develop'.

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18

Who has signed

Two tenants have signed binding 15-year leases. Fluidstack took River Bend's 245 megawatts with Google guaranteeing the payments. The unnamed Beacon Point tenant took 352 megawatts and then another 352 megawatts in July, with rent owed whether or not it uses the halls.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Hut 8 leased 245 MW of IT capacity at River Bend, Louisiana, to Fluidstack for 15 years, triple-net, at $7.0B of base-term rent with a 3% escalator; Google backstops the lease payments and pass-through obligations.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C02facthigh confidence
In the spring of 2026 Hut 8 leased 352 MW of IT capacity at Beacon Point, Texas, for 15 years, triple-net and take-or-pay, at $9.8B of base-term rent, to an unnamed tenant rated AA- or higher.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C03facthigh confidence
In July 2026 the same tenant leased Beacon Point Phase 2, another 352 MW for 15 years at $9.8B, first hall in Q2 2028, bringing the campus to 704 MW and $19.6B, or $50.2B with renewals.
current state · 2026-07-20written 2026-10-18
04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Fast

Sales grew 129% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 45% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2023: $96.0MDec 2024: $162MDec 2025: $235M12 mo to Jun 2026: $318M$96.0M$318M
Is it profitable?Losing

Operating margin is −295%, down from 9.8% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2023: 9.8%Dec 2024: 284%Dec 2025: −137%12 mo to Jun 2026: −295%9.8%−295%
Does growth pay off?Unclear

Running costs take 358¢ of each sales dollar, up from 34¢ in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2023: 34¢Dec 2024: -237¢Dec 2025: 191¢12 mo to Jun 2026: 358¢34¢358¢
Does it earn good returns?Poor

Shareholders' money lost 44% a year, down from 4.5% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2023: 4.5%Dec 2024: 45%Dec 2025: −19%12 mo to Jun 2026: −44%4.5%−44%
Is it making cash?Burning

Operations used $89.4M of cash, 28% of sales, before capital spending, which the filer does not tag.

Dec 2023: −$22.2MDec 2024: −$68.5MDec 2025: −$139M12 mo to Jun 2026: −$89.4M−$22.2M−$89.4M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-18. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$96.0M$162M$235M$318M
Sales growth-+69%+45%+129%
Profit
Gross margin44%47%54%62%
Operating margin9.8%284%−137%−295%
Net margin23%204%−96%−189%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
General and admin51%45%52%72%
Pay in shares14%13%25%47%
Cash
Cash from operations−$22.2M−$68.5M−$139M−$89.4M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$30.5M$85.0M$44.9M$234M
Debt$187M$301M--
Net cash−$157M−$216M--
Returns and shares
Return on capital1.4%35%--
Shares (diluted)-101M105M118M

What growth costs

So far growth has widened the loss: sales more than doubled on mining while head-office cost, mostly stock pay, rose faster. Whether the leases pay off cannot be tested yet. Under their terms the tenants pay the running costs, so rent should be nearly all profit, but none arrives until 2027.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C20facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue was $74.9M, $72.5M of it Compute on about 935 bitcoin mined; the net loss was $177.1M after a $138.6M loss on bitcoin and $76.1M of administrative cost, $51.2M of it stock pay.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-18
C21facthigh confidence
Revenue was $318.0M in the year to June 2026 against $138.5M a year earlier; of 2025's $235.1M, Compute was $202.3M, and every one of the last four quarters lost money.
historical · TTM to 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C48estimatemedium confidence
Overhead runs about $300M a year at Q2's pace, about $99M of cash administration and $205M of stock pay, together about 17% of the leases' expected average NOI.
derivedC20's $76.1M administrative cost less its $51.2M of stock pay, each times four, against C04's $1.764B
against this

Part of the cost is American Bitcoin's, and part of the stock pay is the one-off November 2025 awards (C24), so a steady-state figure may be lower.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C04management claimmedium confidence
Management expects about $454M a year of average NOI from River Bend and about $1.31B from Beacon Point, over $1.75B across 949 MW and $26.6B of base-term rent, at about a 99% margin because tenants pay the running costs.
against this
  • These are presentation figures, not filed lessor schedules: no lease has commenced, so no 10-Q yet shows contracted rent.
  • Average NOI over 15 years includes the 3% escalator, so the early years earn less: Beacon Point Phase 1's own table starts at $489M in 2028 against a $653M average.
forwardwritten 2026-10-18

The last report (4 Aug)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

81%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
5.5%
Growth from the quarter before
against -19.7% the quarter before that
-275¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

In the second quarter of 2026 sales were $74.9M, and $72.5M of that was bitcoin mining. Hut 8 still lost $177.1M, mostly because bitcoin's price fell and head-office cost reached $76.1M, two thirds of it stock pay.

The report mattered for the building, not the numbers. Construction began at River Bend, the equipment for its first two halls was bought at fixed prices, and the July lease filled Beacon Point. What it did not bring was a plan to pay for that second phase.

What it did to the thesisIt supported the build: River Bend began rising on fixed-price equipment and the second Beacon Point lease filled the campus. It left open how that second phase is paid for, and showed head-office and stock pay costs running ahead of any rent.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $-1.27 against $-0.55 expected; $-1.27 as filed, with no adjustments.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C20facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue was $74.9M, $72.5M of it Compute on about 935 bitcoin mined; the net loss was $177.1M after a $138.6M loss on bitcoin and $76.1M of administrative cost, $51.2M of it stock pay.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-18
C21facthigh confidence
Revenue was $318.0M in the year to June 2026 against $138.5M a year earlier; of 2025's $235.1M, Compute was $202.3M, and every one of the last four quarters lost money.
historical · TTM to 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C40management claimmedium confidence
In Q2 2026 vertical construction began at River Bend with long-lead equipment arriving, and management said all long-lead items for the first two buildings are contracted at fixed prices.
against this

An analyst asked about upward pressure on build costs; management's answer named no budget figure and none is filed.

current state · 2026-08-04written 2026-10-18
C03facthigh confidence
In July 2026 the same tenant leased Beacon Point Phase 2, another 352 MW for 15 years at $9.8B, first hall in Q2 2028, bringing the campus to 704 MW and $19.6B, or $50.2B with renewals.
current state · 2026-07-20written 2026-10-18
C09facthigh confidence
Beacon Point Phase 2 has no financing yet: in August the company was 'evaluating a range of structures' and promised more 'in the coming weeks', and no financing filing has followed through 18 October.
against this

The $1.07B revolver signed in September can carry development 'while we determine the optimal timing and structure for long-term, non-recourse financing', and the first two campuses each priced notes within months of leasing.

current state · 2026-10-18written 2026-10-18
What management did with the money

Everything goes into the campuses and the bitcoin reserve. The halls are paid for with project debt that Hut 8 itself does not owe, but the share count still rose 11.9% in six months as a convertible note turned into stock and shares were sold. No buybacks, no dividend.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 2 purchases and 4 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C07facthigh confidence
River Bend is funded by $3.25B of 6.192% senior secured notes due November 2042, issued by a project subsidiary, amortising from May 2028, without recourse to Hut 8; loan-to-cost rose to 95% and $184M of equity came back.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C08facthigh confidence
Beacon Point Phase 1 is funded by $4.25B of 6.129% senior secured notes due November 2042, rated Baa2, amortising from May 2030, without recourse to Hut 8.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C11facthigh confidence
In May 2026 Coatue converted its $159.3M note into 9,715,476 shares, and a $200M bitcoin-backed FalconX loan at 7.0% replaced the Coinbase facility; management says the parent now owes no general recourse debt.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-18
C22facthigh confidence
Shares outstanding rose from 110,091,358 at December 2025 to 123,190,559 at June 2026, 11.9% in six months, mostly Coatue's conversion; 2,101,363 shares were sold for $120.9M under a $1.0B at-the-market programme.
historical · H1 2026written 2026-10-18
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Fair. The price pays roughly what the signed rent is worth after overhead and stock pay, and nothing for River Bend's expansion or the wider pipeline.

Share price
$67.75
close,
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
171.4
its 6-year normal 14.2
Price for each $1 of sales
26.3
its 6-year normal 10.5

The shares have halved from their June high, falling on bitcoin, bond yields and Texas politics rather than on anything in the leases. In August Texas's Governor ordered an audit of every data centre waiting to connect to the state grid, which bears on Beacon Point.

The next tests are near. Results on 4 November should say how Phase 2 is paid for, and Beacon Point is due to switch on power in the first quarter of 2027.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C18facthigh confidence
Hut 8 closed at $67.75 on 16 October 2026, a market value of $8.35B, down 42.4% in 60 sessions and about half the June high, after falls of 10.9% on 8 October and 11.0% on 16 October.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
C34facthigh confidence
On 3 August 2026 Texas's Governor ordered an audit of every data centre in ERCOT's interconnection process before any project moves forward, and on 21 September said the state would issue no data centre permits until audits finish.
against this

Neither statement says whether projects with signed interconnection agreements already under construction, like Beacon Point, are held up.

current state · 2026-09-21written 2026-10-18
C35management claimmedium confidence
Hut 8 says Beacon Point's full 1,000 MW is secured under an AEP Texas interconnection agreement, energisation remains on schedule for Q1 2027, and it gave regulators the site's water and power data.
against this

The Governor's audit and permit halt (C34) post-date the interconnection agreement and do not exempt existing projects in their words.

current state · 2026-08-04written 2026-10-18
C09facthigh confidence
Beacon Point Phase 2 has no financing yet: in August the company was 'evaluating a range of structures' and promised more 'in the coming weeks', and no financing filing has followed through 18 October.
against this

The $1.07B revolver signed in September can carry development 'while we determine the optimal timing and structure for long-term, non-recourse financing', and the first two campuses each priced notes within months of leasing.

current state · 2026-10-18written 2026-10-18
C39management claimmedium confidence
Jacobs builds River Bend with Vertiv on a guaranteed-maximum-price contract at $9-11M per MW, first hall due Q2 2027; Beacon Point is due to energise in Q1 2027 and deliver its first hall in Q3 2027.
against this
  • Hut 8 has never delivered an AI data hall; its 10-K warns that delays can bring liquidated damages, defer rent or let a tenant terminate (C44).
  • Rival builds for the same tenant have slipped: Cipher's Barber Lake moved a quarter in 2026 with excess cost on the landlord.
forwardwritten 2026-10-18
The betPriced for success
If it works
1.4×
from today's value, at the stated multiple
If it fails
keep 13%
of today's market value: the rest of the company, less its debt
How we read the multiple

A buyer gets about $1.11B of bitcoin, American Bitcoin shares and cash, and the leases priced at the rest. No hall is finished, and about $300M a year of head-office cost and stock pay comes before shareholders.

  1. The leases are priced at about $7.24B of shareholders' money.
  2. Add $7.5B of project debt and an assumed $4.25B for Phase 2: about $19.0B.
  3. Expected average yearly profit from the leases is $1.764B.
  4. So the price is about 10.8 times that profit.

Against its own history. Its own past ratios describe a bitcoin miner, not a landlord, so this comparison says little about the leases.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C16estimatemedium confidence
What the market value holds besides the leases is about $1.11B: Hut 8's 9,314 bitcoin at $81,500 less the $200M FalconX loan, 53.63% of American Bitcoin at its quote, and about $255M of parent cash.
derivedC13's 9,314 bitcoin at C15's $81,500 is $759M, less C11's $200M loan; C14's 53.63% of C15's $550.5M is $295M; parent cash is the release's $7.6B attributable to Hut 8 less C10's restricted cash and Hut 8's bitcoin at the June mark
against this
  • The parent cash is derived by subtraction, not stated; it moves with every quarter's spending.
  • American Bitcoin trades below the bitcoin it holds, so valuing the stake at its quote is the low reading; at its coin it would be worth more, but its miner liabilities rank first.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
C17estimatemedium confidence
At $67.75 the leasing business is priced at about $7.24B of equity; with $7.5B of project notes and an assumed $4.25B for Phase 2 that is about $19.0B, 10.8 times $1.764B of average NOI, or 11.4 times after cash overhead.
derivedC18's $8.35B market value less C16's $1.11B; plus C07's and C08's $7.5B and Phase 2 debt assumed equal to C08's; NOI from C04 ($454M plus $1.31B); C48's $99M of cash overhead. Each turn of the multiple is about $14.30 a share
against this
  • Phase 2's financing is assumed, not raised (C09): equity in place of debt would lower the multiple and dilute the shares instead.
  • A multiple of NOI suits a perpetual property; these notes amortise to zero by 2042 and value past the base term depends on renewals the tenants choose.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
C04management claimmedium confidence
Management expects about $454M a year of average NOI from River Bend and about $1.31B from Beacon Point, over $1.75B across 949 MW and $26.6B of base-term rent, at about a 99% margin because tenants pay the running costs.
against this
  • These are presentation figures, not filed lessor schedules: no lease has commenced, so no 10-Q yet shows contracted rent.
  • Average NOI over 15 years includes the 3% escalator, so the early years earn less: Beacon Point Phase 1's own table starts at $489M in 2028 against a $653M average.
forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C48estimatemedium confidence
Overhead runs about $300M a year at Q2's pace, about $99M of cash administration and $205M of stock pay, together about 17% of the leases' expected average NOI.
derivedC20's $76.1M administrative cost less its $51.2M of stock pay, each times four, against C04's $1.764B
against this

Part of the cost is American Bitcoin's, and part of the stock pay is the one-off November 2025 awards (C24), so a steady-state figure may be lower.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C07facthigh confidence
River Bend is funded by $3.25B of 6.192% senior secured notes due November 2042, issued by a project subsidiary, amortising from May 2028, without recourse to Hut 8; loan-to-cost rose to 95% and $184M of equity came back.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C08facthigh confidence
Beacon Point Phase 1 is funded by $4.25B of 6.129% senior secured notes due November 2042, rated Baa2, amortising from May 2030, without recourse to Hut 8.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
Priced against its rivals

Its rivals have not yet been checked against their own filings, so there is no group to price it against; the price is judged against its own history instead.

The bet: what it pays if it works

This is a bet that the AI leasing business grows beyond the signed 949 megawatts, most plausibly by Fluidstack taking River Bend's expansion at the same rent. Even then, valued like the rent it is, the shares would be worth well under twice today's price.

If the build fails, the project lenders are paid first from each campus, and shareholders keep little beyond the bitcoin, the American Bitcoin stake and the cash.

AI data center leasing revenue in two to three yearsLeased IT megawatts neededAt the stated multiple
$1.77Babout 949 at 100% kept1.0×
$2.71B (the big win)about 1.4K at 100% kept1.4×
$4.58Babout 2.4K at 100% kept2.3×

To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $3.90B of AI data center leasing revenue (about 2.1K leased IT megawatts); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $10.16B of AI data center leasing revenue (about 5.4K leased IT megawatts), at the same multiple.

Each row is AI data center leasing alone, plus the rest of the company (American Bitcoin (ASIC compute)) counted at about $1.10B.

The steps it has to take

  • Done 949 MW leased to a Google-backed Fluidstack and a top-rated tenant
  • Done Project notes raised for River Bend and Beacon Point Phase 1
  • In progress Beacon Point Phase 2 financed due 2027-03
  • In progress Beacon Point energised due 2027-03
  • In progress River Bend's first hall delivered and paying rent due 2027-06
  • In progress Beacon Point's first hall delivered and paying rent due 2027-09
  • Not started A lease signed on River Bend's expansion due 2028-06
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet at about
$19.36
71% below the price (close, )
The option
1.5×
what AI data center leasing is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C05facthigh confidence
The River Bend lease gives Fluidstack a right of first offer on up to 1,000 MW more IT capacity, subject to more power at the site, and Hut 8 and Anthropic may jointly develop up to 1,050 MW more elsewhere.
against this

Both are options, not leases: nothing is priced, the River Bend right depends on Entergy expanding power, and the Anthropic capacity is 'may jointly diligence and develop'.

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C33facthigh confidence
Louisiana's economic development agency says Entergy Louisiana will supply an initial 330 MW to River Bend, an up to $10B first phase, and the campus can scale to up to 1,000 MW of utility capacity.
against this

No Louisiana Public Service Commission docket approving the expansion was found; the 1,000 MW is a potential, not a contracted supply.

current state · 2025-12-17written 2026-10-18
C49estimatemedium confidence
The 949 MW earns on average about $1.87M of rent per IT megawatt a year over the base term: $26.6B over 15 years.
derivedC04's $26.6B divided by 15 years and 949 MW; River Bend alone is about $1.90M and Beacon Point about $1.86M
against this

An average over 15 years with a 3% escalator: rent in the first year is lower, about $1.6M per megawatt.

current state · 2026-07-20written 2026-10-18
C16estimatemedium confidence
What the market value holds besides the leases is about $1.11B: Hut 8's 9,314 bitcoin at $81,500 less the $200M FalconX loan, 53.63% of American Bitcoin at its quote, and about $255M of parent cash.
derivedC13's 9,314 bitcoin at C15's $81,500 is $759M, less C11's $200M loan; C14's 53.63% of C15's $550.5M is $295M; parent cash is the release's $7.6B attributable to Hut 8 less C10's restricted cash and Hut 8's bitcoin at the June mark
against this
  • The parent cash is derived by subtraction, not stated; it moves with every quarter's spending.
  • American Bitcoin trades below the bitcoin it holds, so valuing the stake at its quote is the low reading; at its coin it would be worth more, but its miner liabilities rank first.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
C07facthigh confidence
River Bend is funded by $3.25B of 6.192% senior secured notes due November 2042, issued by a project subsidiary, amortising from May 2028, without recourse to Hut 8; loan-to-cost rose to 95% and $184M of equity came back.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C08facthigh confidence
Beacon Point Phase 1 is funded by $4.25B of 6.129% senior secured notes due November 2042, rated Baa2, amortising from May 2030, without recourse to Hut 8.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C44facthigh confidence
The 10-K warns that build delays can bring liquidated damages, defer rent or trigger tenant termination rights, and that its capacity is concentrated in Texas and Louisiana.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

Hut 8 is an AI landlord worth about twice today's price, with the expansion and the pipeline to come.

We believe

The signed rent is worth roughly today's price; the expansion is real but unsigned, unfunded and further off.

The analysts may be right that more leases follow: Fluidstack holds a first offer at River Bend and the company reports thousands of megawatts in talks. But none of that is signed, Phase 2 still needs money, and the share count keeps rising.

What would prove us wrong is Phase 2 financed without new shares, both campuses on time and an expansion lease at today's rent.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
96%
of 23, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
100%
of 17, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C28facthigh confidence
16 analysts rate Hut 8 a buy and one a hold; the average target was $155.50 last month on four and $173.80 last quarter on ten, and nine forecast $1.33B of 2028 sales.
current state · 2026-10-01written 2026-10-18
C05facthigh confidence
The River Bend lease gives Fluidstack a right of first offer on up to 1,000 MW more IT capacity, subject to more power at the site, and Hut 8 and Anthropic may jointly develop up to 1,050 MW more elsewhere.
against this

Both are options, not leases: nothing is priced, the River Bend right depends on Entergy expanding power, and the Anthropic capacity is 'may jointly diligence and develop'.

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C41management claimlow confidence
Hut 8 reports a pipeline of about 8,660 MW at June 2026: 5,400 MW in diligence, 1,880 MW under exclusivity, 50 MW in development and 1,330 MW under construction.
against this

Diligence and exclusivity are the company's own stages with no filed contract behind them; the development stage fell to 50 MW once Beacon Point moved to construction.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C09facthigh confidence
Beacon Point Phase 2 has no financing yet: in August the company was 'evaluating a range of structures' and promised more 'in the coming weeks', and no financing filing has followed through 18 October.
against this

The $1.07B revolver signed in September can carry development 'while we determine the optimal timing and structure for long-term, non-recourse financing', and the first two campuses each priced notes within months of leasing.

current state · 2026-10-18written 2026-10-18
C22facthigh confidence
Shares outstanding rose from 110,091,358 at December 2025 to 123,190,559 at June 2026, 11.9% in six months, mostly Coatue's conversion; 2,101,363 shares were sold for $120.9M under a $1.0B at-the-market programme.
historical · H1 2026written 2026-10-18
C17estimatemedium confidence
At $67.75 the leasing business is priced at about $7.24B of equity; with $7.5B of project notes and an assumed $4.25B for Phase 2 that is about $19.0B, 10.8 times $1.764B of average NOI, or 11.4 times after cash overhead.
derivedC18's $8.35B market value less C16's $1.11B; plus C07's and C08's $7.5B and Phase 2 debt assumed equal to C08's; NOI from C04 ($454M plus $1.31B); C48's $99M of cash overhead. Each turn of the multiple is about $14.30 a share
against this
  • Phase 2's financing is assumed, not raised (C09): equity in place of debt would lower the multiple and dilute the shares instead.
  • A multiple of NOI suits a perpetual property; these notes amortise to zero by 2042 and value past the base term depends on renewals the tenants choose.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • A delay with a bill. Late halls can bring penalties, deferred rent or a tenant's right to walk away, and the leases bill only once delivered.
  • Two tenants hold everything. The unnamed Beacon Point tenant holds about three quarters of all contracted rent, and Fluidstack the rest.
  • Texas politics. The state has ordered audits of data centres waiting for grid power and paused new permits, and Beacon Point is in Texas.
  • More shares. Phase 2 is unfinanced, the share count rose 11.9% in six months, and executive awards could pay out at their maximum.
  • Bitcoin. Mining is nearly all of today's sales and the bitcoin reserve is a large part of what the price holds besides the leases.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C44facthigh confidence
The 10-K warns that build delays can bring liquidated damages, defer rent or trigger tenant termination rights, and that its capacity is concentrated in Texas and Louisiana.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C45inferencehigh confidence
Two counterparties hold all contracted rent: the unnamed Beacon Point tenant $19.6B of $26.6B, about 74%, and Fluidstack, with Google behind it, $7.0B.
derivedC01's $7.0B, C02's and C03's $9.8B each, against C04's $26.6B
against this

Both counterparties are rated near the top of the scale, AA- or higher at Beacon Point and Google's AA+ behind Fluidstack, which makes the concentration a credit risk on very strong names.

current state · 2026-07-20written 2026-10-18
C34facthigh confidence
On 3 August 2026 Texas's Governor ordered an audit of every data centre in ERCOT's interconnection process before any project moves forward, and on 21 September said the state would issue no data centre permits until audits finish.
against this

Neither statement says whether projects with signed interconnection agreements already under construction, like Beacon Point, are held up.

current state · 2026-09-21written 2026-10-18
C09facthigh confidence
Beacon Point Phase 2 has no financing yet: in August the company was 'evaluating a range of structures' and promised more 'in the coming weeks', and no financing filing has followed through 18 October.
against this

The $1.07B revolver signed in September can carry development 'while we determine the optimal timing and structure for long-term, non-recourse financing', and the first two campuses each priced notes within months of leasing.

current state · 2026-10-18written 2026-10-18
C22facthigh confidence
Shares outstanding rose from 110,091,358 at December 2025 to 123,190,559 at June 2026, 11.9% in six months, mostly Coatue's conversion; 2,101,363 shares were sold for $120.9M under a $1.0B at-the-market programme.
historical · H1 2026written 2026-10-18
C25inferencemedium confidence
At today's $8.35B, above 314% of the $2.228B reference, the market-value half of those awards would pay its maximum, about 3.03M shares, once measurement starts on 2 November 2026; issuing shares raises market value too.
derivedC24's 1,011,578 market-value units at three times; C18's $8.35B against 314% of $2.228B, about $7.0B
against this

The test is a rolling 90-day average from November 2026 to 2029, not today's close; a further fall below about $7.0B of market value lowers the payout.

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C20facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue was $74.9M, $72.5M of it Compute on about 935 bitcoin mined; the net loss was $177.1M after a $138.6M loss on bitcoin and $76.1M of administrative cost, $51.2M of it stock pay.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-18
C16estimatemedium confidence
What the market value holds besides the leases is about $1.11B: Hut 8's 9,314 bitcoin at $81,500 less the $200M FalconX loan, 53.63% of American Bitcoin at its quote, and about $255M of parent cash.
derivedC13's 9,314 bitcoin at C15's $81,500 is $759M, less C11's $200M loan; C14's 53.63% of C15's $550.5M is $295M; parent cash is the release's $7.6B attributable to Hut 8 less C10's restricted cash and Hut 8's bitcoin at the June mark
against this
  • The parent cash is derived by subtraction, not stated; it moves with every quarter's spending.
  • American Bitcoin trades below the bitcoin it holds, so valuing the stake at its quote is the low reading; at its coin it would be worth more, but its miner liabilities rank first.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
What we still do not know
  • Who the Beacon Point tenant is: the company says only that it is rated AA- or better.
  • How Beacon Point Phase 2 will be paid for, and whether any new shares are part of it.
  • Whether Fluidstack takes up its first offer on River Bend's expansion, and on what rent.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C02facthigh confidence
In the spring of 2026 Hut 8 leased 352 MW of IT capacity at Beacon Point, Texas, for 15 years, triple-net and take-or-pay, at $9.8B of base-term rent, to an unnamed tenant rated AA- or higher.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C09facthigh confidence
Beacon Point Phase 2 has no financing yet: in August the company was 'evaluating a range of structures' and promised more 'in the coming weeks', and no financing filing has followed through 18 October.
against this

The $1.07B revolver signed in September can carry development 'while we determine the optimal timing and structure for long-term, non-recourse financing', and the first two campuses each priced notes within months of leasing.

current state · 2026-10-18written 2026-10-18
C05facthigh confidence
The River Bend lease gives Fluidstack a right of first offer on up to 1,000 MW more IT capacity, subject to more power at the site, and Hut 8 and Anthropic may jointly develop up to 1,050 MW more elsewhere.
against this

Both are options, not leases: nothing is priced, the River Bend right depends on Entergy expanding power, and the Anthropic capacity is 'may jointly diligence and develop'.

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractivePhase 2 financed cleanly and the next lease signed

    It needs all of:

    • ○Beacon Point Phase 2 paid for with project debt Hut 8 does not owe and no new shares, with both campuses on time.watched as it happens
    • ○A new lease at River Bend's expansion or another site, at rent per megawatt as good as the first three.watched as it happens
  2. Neutral→UnattractiveThe build, the funding or a tenant gives way

    It needs any of:

    • ○River Bend's first hall or Beacon Point's power switch-on slips by more than a quarter, or Hut 8 pays for a cost overrun.watched as it happens
    • ○A tenant ends its lease, Google disputes its guarantee, or Phase 2 is paid for mainly with new shares.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
  • Texas regulators stop Beacon Point switching on its power or getting permits in 2027.

What is coming

  • 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether Phase 2 is financed and how, whether both campuses' dates hold, and whether any new lease is signed.
Every dated event ahead
  • 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether Phase 2 is financed and how, whether both campuses' dates hold, and whether any new lease is signed.
  • 31 March 2027 Beacon Point energisation: Whether Texas power reaches the campus on schedule despite the state's audit and permit halt.
  • 30 June 2027 River Bend's first data hall delivered: The first rent, and whether Hut 8 can deliver an AI hall on time and on budget.
Since we wrote this
Written
18 Oct
Price the thesis read
$67.75
16 Oct
  • 18 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionNeutral with medium conviction: 949 MW is leased to a Google-backed Fluidstack and a top-rated tenant at about 10.8 times NOI, but nothing bills until 2027 and Phase 2 is unfinanced.

Sources 26

Where this came from

Sources - 26

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-25
    Item 1's platform, sites and segments, the Anthropic and Fluidstack partnership with the ROFO and the 1,050 MW option, the $9-11M per MW build cost, the Competition section naming no company, risk factors on delay, termination, concentration and bitcoin, and 248 employees
    backsC01C05C06C21C29C39C43C44C50
  2. S02primarycompany filing2026-08-04
    the balance sheet, debt note and maturities, the River Bend and Beacon Point notes, the Coatue conversion and FalconX loan, bitcoin held, the American Bitcoin interest, the equity and award notes, potentially dilutive securities, litigation and the MD&A
    backsC02C03C07C08C10C11C13C14C20C21C22C23C36C42C46C47
  3. S03primarycompany release2026-08-04
    segment revenue, the King Mountain share, construction progress, Phase 2's NOI and campus totals, liquidity of $8.1B, the Baa2 rating, the FalconX refinancing, Phase 2 financing still being evaluated and the 8,660 MW pipeline
    backsC03C04C05C08C09C11C20C39C40C41C43
  4. S04primarytranscript2026-08-04
    Hut 8 second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript
    the CFO's financing principles, the Phase 2 funding answer, the Governor's letter, the Anthropic relationship, the 99% NOI margin, long-lead items contracted, and turns from eleven analysts whose questions are a separate origin from the answers
    Anthropic is a great kind of example of a customer that needs a lot of demand and capacity to fulfill their needs. And so we work very closely with them, have a good relation with them. Obviously, we're building the campus in River Bend for them.
    backsC04C06C09C35C40
  5. S05primarycompany release2025-12-17
    the 15-year triple-net lease with Fluidstack, $7.0B base term and $17.7B with renewals, the 3% escalator, Google's backstop of rent and pass-through obligations, no equity or warrants issued, the guaranteed-maximum-price EPCM contract and the ROFO
    backsC01C04C36C39
  6. S06primarycompany release2026-04-27
    the indicative cash waterfall: $6,982M of NOI, $1,982M of interest, $3,248M of amortisation and $1,670M of levered free cash flow at 1.31 times cover
    backsC07C19
  7. S07primarycompany release2026-06-04
    the Phase 1 cash waterfall: $9,788M of NOI starting at $489M in 2028, $2,569M of interest, $4,250M of amortisation from 2030 and $2,860M of levered free cash flow at 1.34 times cover
    backsC02C04C19
  8. S08primarycompany release2026-07-20
    the second 352 MW lease at $9.8B and $655M of average NOI, first hall in Q2 2028, the AEP Texas interconnection for the full 1,000 MW, the DSX redesign and energisation on schedule for Q1 2027
    backsC03C04C35
  9. S09primarycompany release2026-09-28
    the facility's size, pricing grid, letter-of-credit sublimit and the CFO's statement that it carries projects while long-term non-recourse financing is arranged
    backsC09C12
  10. S10primarycompany release2026-05-06
    the Beacon Point Phase 1 lease with a high-investment-grade tenant, the River Bend notes raising loan-to-cost from 85% to 95% and returning $184M, and the ERCOT interconnection work at Beacon Point
    backsC02C07C35
  11. S11primarycompany release2026-02-25
    the full-year results, the River Bend partnership as announced and the pipeline at year end
    read, but no claim rests on it
  12. S12primarycompany filing2026-04-28
    the beneficial ownership table at 13 April 2026, the 2025 pay design, and the November 2025 Transformation Awards with their market-value and American Bitcoin hurdles
    backsC24C51
  13. S13primaryvendor data2026-10-18
    Research pack, frozen at content/HUT/research-pack.json
    the 16 October close and market value, returns and the 52-week range, the analyst rating series and target drift, revenue estimates, FINRA consolidated short interest, the insider roster and the news reactions
    backsC18C27C28
  14. S14primarycompany filing2026-10-18
    16 open-market sales and no purchases, 13 discretionary and 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, read off each Form 4's own checkbox
    backsC26
  15. S15primarycompany filing2026-09-30
    a prepaid variable share forward on 1.5M shares with a $40 floor and $221 cap, $58.3M paid upfront, maturing May 2027, and 123,259,468 shares outstanding at 31 July 2026
    backsC22C26
  16. S16primarycompany filing2026-08-03
    24,004,726 Class A and 48,814,987 Class B shares outstanding at 30 July 2026
    backsC14
  17. S17primarygovernment data2025-12-17
    the state's account of River Bend's power, its up to $10B first phase and the 1,000 MW potential, and that the supply was contemplated in Entergy's November 2025 outlooks
    Hut 8 tapped Entergy Louisiana to provide an initial 330 megawatts (MW) of utility capacity to support 245 MW of critical IT load for Fluidstack ... has the potential to scale to up to 1,000 MW of utility capacity
    backsC33
  18. S18primaryindustry data2026-08-11
    a broker's North American absorption, capacity under construction and its owner-occupied part
    North America data center demand reached an all-time high in the first half of 2026 with 25 GW of absorption ... North America now has 66 GW under construction, 95% of which is pre-committed ... with 28 GW of owner-occupied capacity currently under construction
    backsC31
  19. S19secondaryindustry data2026-04-07
    how much of their own capacity the concentrated buyers build rather than lease
    Almost 60% of that hyperscale capacity is now in own-built, owned data centers with the balance being in leased facilities.
    backsC30
  20. S20primarygovernment data2026-05-19
    the underlying rate of change, measured by a statistical agency
    Across all cases, servers alone accounted for an estimated 7% of commercial sector electricity consumption in 2025. Data center server electricity use grows to 22%-33% of commercial building electricity use by 2050 across our cases.
    backsC32
  21. S21primaryregulator2026-08-03
    the directive behind the Texas pause
    conduct a comprehensive verification and audit of all data centers advancing through ERCOT's interconnection process ... The PUCT and ERCOT must complete this audit before any data center project moves forward.
    backsC34
  22. S22secondarynews2026-09-21
    the second directive: no state permits for data centre projects until the audits are complete; it does not say whether permitted projects are affected
    Until they do, TCEQ will issue no permits sought by data center projects.
    backsC34
  23. S23primarycompany filing2026-08-04
    a named rival leasing to the same tenant: Google's warrants for 24,178,576 Cipher shares as consideration for backstopping Fluidstack's Barber Lake lease
    backsC36
  24. S24primarycompany filing2026-08-05
    a named rival leasing to the same tenant: Fluidstack HPC leases at Lake Mariner, commencing in stages, and 102 MW energised in July 2026
    backsC37
  25. S25primarycompany filing2026-07-29
    a rival selling the same product: about 15-year leases with two U.S. investment-grade hyperscalers for 200 MW and 300 MW
    backsC38
  26. S26primaryvendor data2026-10-16
    FMP end-of-day quotes for bitcoin (BTCUSD) and American Bitcoin (ABTC), 16 October 2026
    bitcoin's close of $81,500.04 and American Bitcoin's $7.56 close and $550.5M market value
    backsC15
Rendered from content/HUT/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-18. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.