Riot Platforms
A Texas bitcoin miner turning its grid connections into data centres it rents to AI companies for up to twenty years.
Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth2/4 ↑
Mining revenue fell from $140.9M to $113.7M as hashprice dropped; Q2's rise came from tenant fit-out billed near cost, not rent.
Business quality2/4 ↑
Most revenue is mining, a price-taker; the connected Texas power is scarce, but five listed rivals lease the same thing to the same tenants.
Financial position2/4 →
The 191 MW build needs $1.7-2.1B of debt not yet arranged, on a bridge due December, while mining burns cash covered by bitcoin sales.
Execution record3/4 →
AMD's first 25 MW arrived on time in five months; the promised AMD term loan is unfiled, and the record is one hall.
Per share capture2/4 →
Shares rose 8% in fifteen months on stock awards, a 40 million-share convertible sits near the price, and the lab needs $210-460M of equity.
Potential3/4 ↑
241 MW is signed for 10 and 20 years with dated delivery; Corsicana's 756 MW is only a letter of intent.
Risk profile2/4 →
One tenant is 88% of contracted rent, and the build's financing resolves in one step, the takeout of a bridge due December.
Valuation3/4 ↑
About 11 times the leases' expected rent profit pays roughly for the plan working; Corsicana and mining add little, and the build is unfinanced.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Leases, mining costs and debt are filed and grid scarcity is ERCOT's; the rent margins, takeout and tenant's name rest on management and the press.
The bet · 2-3 years
Speculation2.5×
If it works 2.5× · if it fails you keep about 71%.
The Verdict
We rate Riot Platforms Neutral. Today it is a bitcoin miner that loses money once its machines wear out, with a mixed business underneath. The price looks fair: about 11 times the rent profit its two signed data-centre leases should earn from mid-2028. As a bet it is speculative: if both leases are built it could pay a couple of times today's value, and if they fail mining and the bitcoin still keep most of it. What holds us back is the money to build: the large hall runs on a short bridge loan, and the long-term lenders are not yet signed.
The long caseRiot already holds Texas grid power that the state is now rationing, and AI tenants will pay for twenty years to use it.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C14facthigh confidence
AMD leased 25 MW at Rockdale in January 2026 for 10 years with three five-year extensions; it was delivered in January and May, on time and on budget per the company. In April AMD took 25 MW more, due 10 MW in November 2026 and 15 MW in May 2027, and holds options on 50 MW plus a conditional right to 100 MW. AMD pays power at cost and reimburses fit-out plus a margin.
C15facthigh confidence
In August 2026 Riot signed a lease with a frontier AI lab for 191 MW of critical IT capacity at Rockdale, a Tier 3 build-to-suit: 96 MW due December 2027 and the rest June 2028. The 20-year term starts at full delivery and carries two five-year renewals and about $9.1B of base rent. With AMD, 241 MW is leased.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The lease is described in the 10-Q and an 8-K item, but the contract itself has not been filed as an exhibit.
- No rent is paid until the first hall is delivered in December 2027.
C16management claimmedium confidence
Management expects the two leases to bring about $520M of revenue a year on average, $63.6M from AMD's 50 MW and $457M from the lab, and $416-462M of yearly operating income at an 80% to 90% margin. Building them costs $2.3-2.5B, $11-12M per megawatt for the lab hall.
sourceRiot Platforms Q2 2026 investor presentation (8-K exhibit…primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The margin is an estimate: the only rent billed so far is $4.9M in Q2 on AMD's first 25 MW (C03), at an 84% lease gross margin by management's account.
- The averages include yearly rent escalators over the full terms, so early years earn less.
C05facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 Riot mined 1,587 bitcoin worth $71,667 each when mined. Its cost to mine one, before miner depreciation, was $49,912 (69.6% of value); including miner depreciation it was $90,631 (126.5%). A year earlier the figures were $48,992 and $91,244 against a value of $98,800.
C17facthigh confidence
To start the 191 MW build Riot took a $573.0M delayed-draw loan from lenders led by Morgan Stanley, secured only on the project and not on Riot, at SOFR plus 2.75%. The 8-K says it matures on 31 December 2026; the 10-Q filed four days earlier said 15 October 2026, subject to extension on refinancing.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 8-K: $573M credit agreement with Morgan…primaryRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary
against this
The lender has no claim on Riot itself, so a failed takeout would cost the project rather than the parent.
C26inferencemedium confidence
At $13.72 the company is valued at about $5.0B including debt and cash, roughly 11 times the $416-462M of yearly operating income management expects from the two leases from mid-2028. That rent arrives only after $2.3-2.5B of building, mostly borrowed, and the price also buys mining, engineering, the bitcoin and Corsicana.
sourceResearch pack for RIOT (FMP market tier, FINRA short…primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 investor presentation (8-K exhibit…primary
against this
- The new project debt, $1.7-2.1B, would sit ahead of shareholders (C18).
- Mining burned cash in the first half (C10), which the leases must first outrun.
The company
Riot sells what its power can make. Most of it runs about 44 EH/s of bitcoin-mining machines at Rockdale, Corsicana and in Kentucky. A growing part goes into data-centre halls built for AI companies, which bring their own chips and pay rent for space, cooling and power.
The tenants' alternative is to find land and wait for a new grid connection in Texas, which the state now hands out in batches from 2028. Riot's sites already have theirs.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Riot reports three segments: Bitcoin Mining, Data Center (a reportable segment since Q1 2026) and Engineering, which makes electrical gear through ESS Metron and E4A. At 30 June 2026 it had 1,292 MW of developed power, Rockdale 700 MW, Corsicana 400 MW and Kentucky 192 MW, and 44.4 EH/s of miners deployed.
C14facthigh confidence
AMD leased 25 MW at Rockdale in January 2026 for 10 years with three five-year extensions; it was delivered in January and May, on time and on budget per the company. In April AMD took 25 MW more, due 10 MW in November 2026 and 15 MW in May 2027, and holds options on 50 MW plus a conditional right to 100 MW. AMD pays power at cost and reimburses fit-out plus a margin.
C15facthigh confidence
In August 2026 Riot signed a lease with a frontier AI lab for 191 MW of critical IT capacity at Rockdale, a Tier 3 build-to-suit: 96 MW due December 2027 and the rest June 2028. The 20-year term starts at full delivery and carries two five-year renewals and about $9.1B of base rent. With AMD, 241 MW is leased.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The lease is described in the 10-Q and an 8-K item, but the contract itself has not been filed as an exhibit.
- No rent is paid until the first hall is delivered in December 2027.
C21factmedium confidence
Texas regulators approved ERCOT's Batch Zero process in June 2026: new loads of 75 MW or more are studied together, results due April 2027, with yearly allocations for 2028 to 2032. Riot's chief executive says Rockdale and Corsicana sit outside it because their power is already under existing interconnection agreements.
sourceERCOT update to the Texas Senate Committee on Business and…primaryERCOT news release: PUCT approves ERCOT's Batch Zero process…primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
That Riot's sites are outside the batch is management's statement; ERCOT publishes no list of exempt sites.
How it makes money
Today almost all money comes from bitcoin: Riot's machines win new coins and it sells them every month, so revenue rises and falls with the bitcoin price. Its engineering arm also sells switchgear and power rooms.
The new money is rent. A tenant signs for 10 or 20 years, pays a base rent that rises each year, and pays for its power at cost. Management expects about 80 to 90 cents of each rent dollar to be profit.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C03facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $174.2M against $153.0M a year earlier: Bitcoin Mining $113.7M (from $140.9M), Data Center $23.2M ($4.9M of rent and $18.3M of tenant fit-out) and Engineering $37.3M. The net loss was $237.2M, $0.68 a share, and adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $69.7M.
C05facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 Riot mined 1,587 bitcoin worth $71,667 each when mined. Its cost to mine one, before miner depreciation, was $49,912 (69.6% of value); including miner depreciation it was $90,631 (126.5%). A year earlier the figures were $48,992 and $91,244 against a value of $98,800.
C06inferencehigh confidence
Riot's cost to mine nets off power credits that the income statement books on a separate line, outside cost of revenue. Without them Q2 2026's cost before depreciation was $56,247 a bitcoin, not $49,912: the credits were worth $6,335 a coin. They were $31.1M in the first half against $16.1M a year earlier.
against this
- The credits are real cash, earned by selling fixed-price power back to the grid when prices spike (C07).
- Management discloses both figures in the same table, so nothing is hidden, only framed.
C14facthigh confidence
AMD leased 25 MW at Rockdale in January 2026 for 10 years with three five-year extensions; it was delivered in January and May, on time and on budget per the company. In April AMD took 25 MW more, due 10 MW in November 2026 and 15 MW in May 2027, and holds options on 50 MW plus a conditional right to 100 MW. AMD pays power at cost and reimburses fit-out plus a margin.
C16management claimmedium confidence
Management expects the two leases to bring about $520M of revenue a year on average, $63.6M from AMD's 50 MW and $457M from the lab, and $416-462M of yearly operating income at an 80% to 90% margin. Building them costs $2.3-2.5B, $11-12M per megawatt for the lab hall.
sourceRiot Platforms Q2 2026 investor presentation (8-K exhibit…primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The margin is an estimate: the only rent billed so far is $4.9M in Q2 on AMD's first 25 MW (C03), at an 84% lease gross margin by management's account.
- The averages include yearly rent escalators over the full terms, so early years earn less.
C23facthigh confidence
The Engineering segment had a $177.1M order backlog at the end of Q2 2026, about 90% for data centres, and sold $8.9M of gear to Riot's own projects in the quarter beside $37.3M to outside customers.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (FY 2025) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin mining | 89.0% | Bitcoin earned by its own machines in a mining pool and sold monthly. |
| Engineering | 10.0% | Switchgear, power rooms and electrical work sold to outside customers, mostly data centres. |
| Data-centre rent | 2.8% | Base rent and power passed through on AMD's halls; $4.9M of rent in Q2 2026. |
| Tenant fit-out | 10.5% | Equipment Riot buys and installs for AMD and is repaid for at cost plus a margin. |
Who runs it
Jason Les has run Riot since 2021 and signed both leases this year. Directors and officers own about 7.8% of the company; their sales in the past year were all pre-arranged. Shareholders rejected the pay plan in 2025 after large one-time awards. This year's bonus rewards bitcoin output and profit against peers and data-centre revenue and profit; long-term awards ride on the share price against the market.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C30facthigh confidence
Directors and officers owned 29.6 million shares, 7.82%, at the 2026 proxy's record date, Jason Les 9.4 million and Executive Chairman Benjamin Yi 10.6 million. All nine open-market sales by insiders in the past year, 366,255 shares, were under pre-arranged trading plans; there were no purchases.
C31facthigh confidence
Only 31.5% of votes backed executive pay in 2025, after large one-time awards in 2024. The 2026 bonus is 25% bitcoin output against peers, 25% adjusted EBITDA against peers, 15% data-centre revenue, 15% data-centre operating income and 20% strategy; long-term awards pay on share return against the Russell 3000, capped at target when the return is negative.
C18management claimmedium confidence
Management plans to replace the bridge with long-term debt once an investment-grade backstop is finalised, borrowing 80% to 90% of cost, $1.7-2.1B, leaving $210-460M of equity. It also expected a $180M term loan on AMD's first 25 MW to close before the end of Q3 2026, cutting the net equity need to $30-280M.
sourceRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 investor presentation (8-K exhibit…primary
against this
- No 8-K announced the AMD term loan or the takeout by 17 October 2026 (S08 and the filing list).
- Management declined to name the backstop provider or terms (C34).
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
The advantage is power that is already connected. ERCOT, which runs the Texas grid, counts about 474 GW of requests from large users, mostly data centres, against 5.9 GW actually switched on, and now studies new requests in batches with allocations from 2028.
Riot's Rockdale and Corsicana sites run on existing agreements, which the chief executive says keeps them outside that queue. That is why two tenants signed 241 MW within seven months.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C20facthigh confidence
ERCOT, the Texas grid operator, was tracking about 474 GW of large loads seeking to connect in June 2026, about 90% data centres, against 5.9 GW energized; 29.9 GW had met interconnection requirements for 2027.
sourceERCOT update to the Texas Senate Committee on Business and…primaryERCOT news release: PUCT approves ERCOT's Batch Zero process…primary
against this
ERCOT says much of the queue is speculative: 284 GW by 2032 has submitted no studies.
C21factmedium confidence
Texas regulators approved ERCOT's Batch Zero process in June 2026: new loads of 75 MW or more are studied together, results due April 2027, with yearly allocations for 2028 to 2032. Riot's chief executive says Rockdale and Corsicana sit outside it because their power is already under existing interconnection agreements.
sourceERCOT update to the Texas Senate Committee on Business and…primaryERCOT news release: PUCT approves ERCOT's Batch Zero process…primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
That Riot's sites are outside the batch is management's statement; ERCOT publishes no list of exempt sites.
C14facthigh confidence
AMD leased 25 MW at Rockdale in January 2026 for 10 years with three five-year extensions; it was delivered in January and May, on time and on budget per the company. In April AMD took 25 MW more, due 10 MW in November 2026 and 15 MW in May 2027, and holds options on 50 MW plus a conditional right to 100 MW. AMD pays power at cost and reimburses fit-out plus a margin.
C15facthigh confidence
In August 2026 Riot signed a lease with a frontier AI lab for 191 MW of critical IT capacity at Rockdale, a Tier 3 build-to-suit: 96 MW due December 2027 and the rest June 2028. The 20-year term starts at full delivery and carries two five-year renewals and about $9.1B of base rent. With AMD, 241 MW is leased.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The lease is described in the 10-Q and an 8-K item, but the contract itself has not been filed as an exhibit.
- No rent is paid until the first hall is delivered in December 2027.
The threat
Riot is not alone. TeraWulf, Cipher, IREN, Core Scientific and Hut 8 converted their own mines and lease them to the same AI tenants, and Applied Digital builds about 150 MW campuses for hyperscalers. The tenants can also build their own once Texas hands out new power. The engineering arm competes with makers such as Powell Industries.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C28facthigh confidence
Rival filings describe the same product: Cipher says several miners, naming Hut 8, IREN, TeraWulf, Core Scientific and Applied Digital, have signed leases with hyperscalers and HPC tenants; TeraWulf calls itself an owner of HPC infrastructure on reused industrial sites; Applied Digital builds about 150 MW campuses in 14 to 18 months for investment-grade hyperscalers.
C20facthigh confidence
ERCOT, the Texas grid operator, was tracking about 474 GW of large loads seeking to connect in June 2026, about 90% data centres, against 5.9 GW energized; 29.9 GW had met interconnection requirements for 2027.
sourceERCOT update to the Texas Senate Committee on Business and…primaryERCOT news release: PUCT approves ERCOT's Batch Zero process…primary
against this
ERCOT says much of the queue is speculative: 284 GW by 2032 has submitted no studies.
C35facthigh confidence
Powell Industries says it develops, designs, manufactures and services custom-engineered equipment that distributes and controls electrical energy, including power control room substations, electrical houses and switchgear, typically awarded in competitive bids: the products of Riot's Engineering segment.
The rivals: WULF, CIFR, IREN, CORZ, HUT, APLD, MARA, CLSK, POWL, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | Where it competes | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WULF · CIFR · IREN · CORZ · HUT | Other converted miners: TeraWulf, Cipher, IREN, Core Scientific, Hut 8Priced against it: Yes | Data Center | On sale | Yes |
| APLD | Applied DigitalPriced against it: Yes | Data Center | On sale | Yes |
| In-house | Tenants building their own data centresPriced against it: In-house | Data Center | On sale | In-house |
| Not listed | New sites given power in ERCOT's Batch Zero studyPriced against it: Not listed | Data Center | Announced | Not listed |
| MARA · CLSK | Other bitcoin miners: MARA, CleanSparkPriced against it: Yes | Bitcoin Mining | On sale | Yes |
| POWL | Powell IndustriesPriced against it: One segment only | Engineering | On sale | One segment only |
How big it could get
How big this could get
ERCOT counts 29.9 GW of large users cleared to connect by 2027. Charged at the rent Riot's two leases imply, about $2.16M a megawatt a year, that would be roughly $65B a year, an upper bound since not all of it is data centres.
Riot's 241 MW is under 1% of that, so the market is not the limit; finding the power, the tenant and the money is.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C20facthigh confidence
ERCOT, the Texas grid operator, was tracking about 474 GW of large loads seeking to connect in June 2026, about 90% data centres, against 5.9 GW energized; 29.9 GW had met interconnection requirements for 2027.
sourceERCOT update to the Texas Senate Committee on Business and…primaryERCOT news release: PUCT approves ERCOT's Batch Zero process…primary
against this
ERCOT says much of the queue is speculative: 284 GW by 2032 has submitted no studies.
C16management claimmedium confidence
Management expects the two leases to bring about $520M of revenue a year on average, $63.6M from AMD's 50 MW and $457M from the lab, and $416-462M of yearly operating income at an 80% to 90% margin. Building them costs $2.3-2.5B, $11-12M per megawatt for the lab hall.
sourceRiot Platforms Q2 2026 investor presentation (8-K exhibit…primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The margin is an estimate: the only rent billed so far is $4.9M in Q2 on AMD's first 25 MW (C03), at an 84% lease gross margin by management's account.
- The averages include yearly rent escalators over the full terms, so early years earn less.
C15facthigh confidence
In August 2026 Riot signed a lease with a frontier AI lab for 191 MW of critical IT capacity at Rockdale, a Tier 3 build-to-suit: 96 MW due December 2027 and the rest June 2028. The 20-year term starts at full delivery and carries two five-year renewals and about $9.1B of base rent. With AMD, 241 MW is leased.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The lease is described in the 10-Q and an 8-K item, but the contract itself has not been filed as an exhibit.
- No rent is paid until the first hall is delivered in December 2027.
Who has signed
AMD has signed for 50 MW over 10 years and the frontier lab for 191 MW over 20, both firm leases described in the filings. The lab is unnamed by Riot; Bloomberg reported Anthropic. Corsicana's whole site is under a letter of intent with one tenant, which binds nobody.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C14facthigh confidence
AMD leased 25 MW at Rockdale in January 2026 for 10 years with three five-year extensions; it was delivered in January and May, on time and on budget per the company. In April AMD took 25 MW more, due 10 MW in November 2026 and 15 MW in May 2027, and holds options on 50 MW plus a conditional right to 100 MW. AMD pays power at cost and reimburses fit-out plus a margin.
C15facthigh confidence
In August 2026 Riot signed a lease with a frontier AI lab for 191 MW of critical IT capacity at Rockdale, a Tier 3 build-to-suit: 96 MW due December 2027 and the rest June 2028. The 20-year term starts at full delivery and carries two five-year renewals and about $9.1B of base rent. With AMD, 241 MW is leased.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The lease is described in the 10-Q and an 8-K item, but the contract itself has not been filed as an exhibit.
- No rent is paid until the first hall is delivered in December 2027.
C19factmedium confidence
Bloomberg reported, and ForkLog repeated, that the frontier AI lab behind the 191 MW lease is Anthropic; Riot has not named its tenant.
against this
Riot's own filings say only a leading frontier AI lab; the name rests on unnamed sources in the press.
C22management claimlow confidence
Management says the whole Corsicana campus, 1 GW of approved power that could support 756 MW of critical IT capacity, is under a non-binding letter of intent with one unnamed tenant, in advanced commercial and design talks, and calls converting it into a lease a 2026 priority.
against this
- No Corsicana lease had been announced or filed by 17 October 2026.
- Management itself said a letter of intent is not a signed lease.
The results
The numbers
Is it growing?Steady
Sales grew 25% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, slower than the 72% in the year to Dec 2025.
Is it profitable?Losing
Operating margin is −199%, down from −22% in the year to Dec 2023.
How steady is it?Swingy
Yearly sales growth has ranged from +8.3% to +17× over the last 5 years.
Does it earn good returns?Poor
Shareholders' money lost 48% a year, down from −1.9% in the year to Dec 2021.
How long can it keep going?Short
It used $777M of cash over the last twelve months, so the $471M it holds lasts about 0.6 years at that pace.
Is the balance sheet safe?Strained
It owes $372M more than the cash it holds, and its operations bring in no cash to repay it.
Are shares being diluted?Diluting
The share count rose 272% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 21% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-19. Fiscal years end in December.
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | 12 mo to Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $213M | $259M | $281M | $377M | $647M | $675M |
| Sales growth | +17× | +22% | +8.3% | +34% | +72% | +25% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Operating margin | −14% | −198% | −22% | 41% | −96% | −199% |
| Net margin | −7.2% | −197% | −18% | 29% | −102% | −196% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Selling, general and admin | 41% | 26% | 36% | 71% | 46% | 46% |
| Pay in shares | 32% | 9.5% | 11% | 33% | 19% | 21% |
| Capital spending | 69% | 57% | 69% | 64% | 31% | 42% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | −$86.1M | $530K | $33.1M | −$255M | −$573M | −$492M |
| Free cash flow | −$233M | −$148M | −$161M | −$495M | −$774M | −$777M |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $323M | $230M | $597M | $278M | $234M | $471M |
| Debt | - | - | $783K | $585M | $841M | $843M |
| Net cash | - | - | $596M | −$307M | −$607M | −$372M |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Return on capital | - | - | - | 5.4% | - | - |
| Shares (diluted) | 93.5M | 139M | 175M | 319M | 341M | 348M |
What growth costs
Growth has not made Riot more profitable. Sales rose 72% in 2025 while the company swung to a large loss, and this year more sales came with less gross profit, because mining earns less per machine as the network grows. Rent should change that, but so far it is a sliver of revenue.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C02facthigh confidence
In 2025 revenue was $647.4M against $376.7M in 2024, almost all from Bitcoin Mining ($576.3M against $321.0M) on higher bitcoin prices and more hash rate. The net loss was $663.2M against net income of $109.4M in 2024.
C03facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $174.2M against $153.0M a year earlier: Bitcoin Mining $113.7M (from $140.9M), Data Center $23.2M ($4.9M of rent and $18.3M of tenant fit-out) and Engineering $37.3M. The net loss was $237.2M, $0.68 a share, and adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $69.7M.
C04facthigh confidence
Segment gross profit in Q2 2026 was $43.5M against $68.4M a year earlier: Bitcoin Mining $24.5M, Data Center $6.5M and Engineering $12.5M. Below that sat $82.0M of selling, general and administrative cost, $97.8M of depreciation and amortisation and a $28.0M impairment of Rockdale mining construction.
The last report (10 Aug)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
14%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
4.2%
Growth from the quarter before
against 9.4% the quarter before that
-137¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales
In Q2 2026 sales rose to $174.2M, but the growth came from building work for AMD and engineering, not mining. Mining revenue fell to $113.7M as each machine earned less, and mining a coin cost more than it was worth once the machines' wear was counted.
The quarter's loss was $237.2M, much of it a fall in the value of bitcoin held. The news that mattered came with the results: the 191 MW lease and a $573M loan to start building it.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the first hall can be delivered on time and that tenants will sign, and it showed mining losing money at low prices. It left open the financing for the big hall, which the view waits on.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $-0.68 against $-0.30 expected; $-0.68 as filed, with no adjustments.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C03facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $174.2M against $153.0M a year earlier: Bitcoin Mining $113.7M (from $140.9M), Data Center $23.2M ($4.9M of rent and $18.3M of tenant fit-out) and Engineering $37.3M. The net loss was $237.2M, $0.68 a share, and adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $69.7M.
C04facthigh confidence
Segment gross profit in Q2 2026 was $43.5M against $68.4M a year earlier: Bitcoin Mining $24.5M, Data Center $6.5M and Engineering $12.5M. Below that sat $82.0M of selling, general and administrative cost, $97.8M of depreciation and amortisation and a $28.0M impairment of Rockdale mining construction.
C05facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 Riot mined 1,587 bitcoin worth $71,667 each when mined. Its cost to mine one, before miner depreciation, was $49,912 (69.6% of value); including miner depreciation it was $90,631 (126.5%). A year earlier the figures were $48,992 and $91,244 against a value of $98,800.
C08facthigh confidence
Hashprice, what a unit of mining power earns a day, averaged $34 per PH in Q2 2026 against $51 a year earlier, as the network's hash rate rose from 876 to 957 EH/s. Riot's machines ran at an average of 37.2 EH/s and its all-in power cost was 3.6 cents a kilowatt-hour.
C15facthigh confidence
In August 2026 Riot signed a lease with a frontier AI lab for 191 MW of critical IT capacity at Rockdale, a Tier 3 build-to-suit: 96 MW due December 2027 and the rest June 2028. The 20-year term starts at full delivery and carries two five-year renewals and about $9.1B of base rent. With AMD, 241 MW is leased.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The lease is described in the 10-Q and an 8-K item, but the contract itself has not been filed as an exhibit.
- No rent is paid until the first hall is delivered in December 2027.
What management did with the money
Management sold 9,665 bitcoin in the first half of 2026 to pay for building and repaid a $200M loan in September. It sold no new shares in 2026, but stock awards still lifted the share count 8% in fifteen months.
Insiders in 2026Q3: 5 purchases and 14 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C10facthigh confidence
Riot held 18,005 bitcoin on 1 January 2026, sold 9,665 for $732.5M in the first half and held 11,380 on 30 June, worth $666.0M, with 5,821 pledged to a loan. Cash was $548.9M, $77.5M of it restricted. Operating cash flow was minus $272.8M for the half, and management calls bitcoin sales its main source of funding.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The half included a one-off $20.0M legal settlement in operating cash flow.
- Bitcoin rose about 39% from its 30 June price by mid-October (C09), lifting what the remaining coins fetch.
C11facthigh confidence
Debt principal at 30 June 2026 was $853.7M: $594.4M of 0.75% convertible notes due 2030, a $200.0M bitcoin-backed Coinbase loan, $54.3M of revolving credit and a $5.0M note. The Coinbase loan was repaid in full on 21 September 2026.
C13facthigh confidence
Shares outstanding rose from 350.2 million on 1 April 2025 to 378.0 million on 30 June 2026 and were 375.3 million on 7 August. No shares were sold under the $500M at-the-market program in the first half of 2026; holders added 15.0 million shares to the stock plan in June, and 16.5 million restricted shares vested in July after the 2023 award paid at its 200% maximum.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Fair: about $5.0B pays roughly for the two signed leases being built and financed as planned, with mining and Corsicana thrown in.
Share price
$13.56
close,
Company value for each $1 of sales
7.3
rivals' middle 16.7 · its 6-year normal 8.0
The shares fell 40% in three weeks to $13.72 with no news from Riot. The whole group of converted miners fell 22% to 49% while bitcoin barely moved, so the drop says more about the group than about Riot's leases.
Two dates matter. Riot reports Q3 2026 results on 29 October, and its $573M bridge loan falls due by 31 December. Either should show whether long-term lenders have signed.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C24facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $13.72 on 16 October 2026, down 38% over a year while sales per share rose 37%: the price multiple fell by more than half. The year's range was $11.50 to $30.32; the shares fell 42% over the last 20 sessions.
C25facthigh confidence
From 25 September to 16 October 2026 Riot fell 40%, MARA 40%, CleanSpark 40%, Cipher 49%, IREN 39%, Applied Digital 31%, Hut 8 30%, TeraWulf 26% and Core Scientific 22%, while bitcoin fell about 4% and the Nasdaq-100 fund about 5%. Riot filed no results or lease news in that time.
C17facthigh confidence
To start the 191 MW build Riot took a $573.0M delayed-draw loan from lenders led by Morgan Stanley, secured only on the project and not on Riot, at SOFR plus 2.75%. The 8-K says it matures on 31 December 2026; the 10-Q filed four days earlier said 15 October 2026, subject to extension on refinancing.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 8-K: $573M credit agreement with Morgan…primaryRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary
against this
The lender has no claim on Riot itself, so a failed takeout would cost the project rather than the parent.
C32facthigh confidence
Riot reports Q3 2026 results on 29 October 2026; the analyst consensus in the vendor's calendar is a loss of about $0.33 a share.
The betSpeculation
If it works
2.5×
from today's value, valued like its peers
If it fails
keep 71%
of today's market value: the rest of the company, less its debt
How we read the multiple
A buyer gets a mining business that loses money after depreciation, an engineering arm, about 11,380 bitcoin at June's count and two signed leases. The leases do the work in the valuation.
- Management expects the two leases to earn $416-462M a year of rent profit from mid-2028.
- The company is valued at about $5.0B today, debt and cash included.
- That is roughly 11 times the expected rent profit, before $2.3-2.5B of building costs.
- Most of that building is to be borrowed, so new debt will sit ahead of shareholders.
Against its own history. Below what buyers usually pay for each dollar of its sales, because the price fell while sales grew; the market pays less than before for mining.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C26inferencemedium confidence
At $13.72 the company is valued at about $5.0B including debt and cash, roughly 11 times the $416-462M of yearly operating income management expects from the two leases from mid-2028. That rent arrives only after $2.3-2.5B of building, mostly borrowed, and the price also buys mining, engineering, the bitcoin and Corsicana.
sourceResearch pack for RIOT (FMP market tier, FINRA short…primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 investor presentation (8-K exhibit…primary
against this
- The new project debt, $1.7-2.1B, would sit ahead of shareholders (C18).
- Mining burned cash in the first half (C10), which the leases must first outrun.
C16management claimmedium confidence
Management expects the two leases to bring about $520M of revenue a year on average, $63.6M from AMD's 50 MW and $457M from the lab, and $416-462M of yearly operating income at an 80% to 90% margin. Building them costs $2.3-2.5B, $11-12M per megawatt for the lab hall.
sourceRiot Platforms Q2 2026 investor presentation (8-K exhibit…primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The margin is an estimate: the only rent billed so far is $4.9M in Q2 on AMD's first 25 MW (C03), at an 84% lease gross margin by management's account.
- The averages include yearly rent escalators over the full terms, so early years earn less.
C27facthigh confidence
On company value to trailing sales Riot's filed cohort runs from CleanSpark and MARA, the two pure miners, at the bottom to TeraWulf at the top; Riot sits third of nine, below the converted landlords Cipher, Hut 8, IREN and Core Scientific.
C18management claimmedium confidence
Management plans to replace the bridge with long-term debt once an investment-grade backstop is finalised, borrowing 80% to 90% of cost, $1.7-2.1B, leaving $210-460M of equity. It also expected a $180M term loan on AMD's first 25 MW to close before the end of Q3 2026, cutting the net equity need to $30-280M.
sourceRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 investor presentation (8-K exhibit…primary
against this
- No 8-K announced the AMD term loan or the takeout by 17 October 2026 (S08 and the filing list).
- Management declined to name the backstop provider or terms (C34).
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of sales, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | company value for each $1 of sales |
|---|---|---|
| CLSK | CleanSpark | 5.5× |
| MARA | Marathon Digital Holdings | 6.2× |
| RIOT | Riot Platforms | 7.3× |
| APLD | Applied Digital | 10.5× |
| CORZ | Core Scientific | 15.6× |
| IREN | IREN Limited | 17.8× |
| HUT | Hut 8 | 27.1× |
| CIFR | Cipher Mining | 27.7× |
| WULF | TeraWulf | 51.1× |
The middle of the other 8 is 16.7. Riot Platforms, Inc. is 3rd cheapest of 9.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
Priced between the pure miners and the converted landlords, which is where a miner with leases signed but not yet paying belongs; the whole group fell together.
The bet: what it pays if it works
The bet is the data-centre business. If both signed halls are built and financed, it could be worth a couple of times what today's price pays for the whole company, and more if AMD's options and Corsicana follow.
If the large lease fails, shareholders keep AMD's halls, the mining business, the engineering arm and the bitcoin, which on miners' prices is most of today's value.
| Data Center revenue in two to three years | Megawatts of critical IT capacity leased needed | Valued like its peers | Like the cheapest |
|---|---|---|---|
| $63.60M | about 29 at 100% kept | 0.9× | 0.8× |
| $520.00M (the big win) | about 241 at 100% kept | 2.5× | 1.3× |
| $845.00M | about 391 at 100% kept | 3.6× | 1.6× |
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $382.79M of Data Center revenue (about 177 megawatts of critical IT capacity leased); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $1.26B of Data Center revenue (about 584 megawatts of critical IT capacity leased), at the same multiple.
Each row is Data Center alone, plus the rest of the company (Bitcoin Mining and Engineering) counted at about $3.40B.
The steps it has to take
- Done AMD's first 25 MW delivered
- Done 191 MW lease signed with a frontier AI lab
- Slipped $180M term loan on AMD's first 25 MW closed due 2026-12
- In progress Long-term financing replaces the $573M bridge due 2026-12
- In progress AMD's second 25 MW delivered due 2027-05
- In progress Corsicana letter of intent turned into a lease due 2027-06
- In progress First 96 MW delivered to the frontier lab due 2027-12
- Not started All 191 MW delivered and the 20-year term begins due 2028-06
The detail behind the label
Rating
Fair
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Valued like the cheapest
1.3×
the same success, the lowest comparison
Cheap bet at about
≈ $6.95
49% below the price (close, )
The option
5.8×
what Data Center is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C14facthigh confidence
AMD leased 25 MW at Rockdale in January 2026 for 10 years with three five-year extensions; it was delivered in January and May, on time and on budget per the company. In April AMD took 25 MW more, due 10 MW in November 2026 and 15 MW in May 2027, and holds options on 50 MW plus a conditional right to 100 MW. AMD pays power at cost and reimburses fit-out plus a margin.
C15facthigh confidence
In August 2026 Riot signed a lease with a frontier AI lab for 191 MW of critical IT capacity at Rockdale, a Tier 3 build-to-suit: 96 MW due December 2027 and the rest June 2028. The 20-year term starts at full delivery and carries two five-year renewals and about $9.1B of base rent. With AMD, 241 MW is leased.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The lease is described in the 10-Q and an 8-K item, but the contract itself has not been filed as an exhibit.
- No rent is paid until the first hall is delivered in December 2027.
C16management claimmedium confidence
Management expects the two leases to bring about $520M of revenue a year on average, $63.6M from AMD's 50 MW and $457M from the lab, and $416-462M of yearly operating income at an 80% to 90% margin. Building them costs $2.3-2.5B, $11-12M per megawatt for the lab hall.
sourceRiot Platforms Q2 2026 investor presentation (8-K exhibit…primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The margin is an estimate: the only rent billed so far is $4.9M in Q2 on AMD's first 25 MW (C03), at an 84% lease gross margin by management's account.
- The averages include yearly rent escalators over the full terms, so early years earn less.
C22management claimlow confidence
Management says the whole Corsicana campus, 1 GW of approved power that could support 756 MW of critical IT capacity, is under a non-binding letter of intent with one unnamed tenant, in advanced commercial and design talks, and calls converting it into a lease a 2026 priority.
against this
- No Corsicana lease had been announced or filed by 17 October 2026.
- Management itself said a letter of intent is not a signed lease.
C33inferencemedium confidence
Mining and engineering together brought about $618.2M of revenue in the year to June 2026, the business that remains if the data-centre line fails.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryResearch pack for RIOT (FMP market tier, FINRA short…primary
against this
Mining revenue moves with hashprice (C09) and may shrink as Rockdale power moves to the lab.
C05facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 Riot mined 1,587 bitcoin worth $71,667 each when mined. Its cost to mine one, before miner depreciation, was $49,912 (69.6% of value); including miner depreciation it was $90,631 (126.5%). A year earlier the figures were $48,992 and $91,244 against a value of $98,800.
C10facthigh confidence
Riot held 18,005 bitcoin on 1 January 2026, sold 9,665 for $732.5M in the first half and held 11,380 on 30 June, worth $666.0M, with 5,821 pledged to a loan. Cash was $548.9M, $77.5M of it restricted. Operating cash flow was minus $272.8M for the half, and management calls bitcoin sales its main source of funding.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The half included a one-off $20.0M legal settlement in operating cash flow.
- Bitcoin rose about 39% from its 30 June price by mid-October (C09), lifting what the remaining coins fetch.
C17facthigh confidence
To start the 191 MW build Riot took a $573.0M delayed-draw loan from lenders led by Morgan Stanley, secured only on the project and not on Riot, at SOFR plus 2.75%. The 8-K says it matures on 31 December 2026; the 10-Q filed four days earlier said 15 October 2026, subject to extension on refinancing.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 8-K: $573M credit agreement with Morgan…primaryRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary
against this
The lender has no claim on Riot itself, so a failed takeout would cost the project rather than the parent.
Where we disagree with the market
The market believes
A miner turning into an AI landlord: 21 of 22 analysts rate it a buy after two big leases.
We believe
The leases are real and nearly cover the price, but the building is not yet financed and mining burns cash meanwhile.
Bulls count the rent. The filings show it starts in December 2027, the large hall runs on a loan due this December, and the bitcoin paying the gap is being sold down. If the long-term lenders sign without new shares, the gap closes and we are too cautious.
What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
96%
of 22, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
90%
of 21, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C29facthigh confidence
Analyst ratings were 95.5% positive across 22 analysts on 1 October 2026, against 100% of 20 in February. Short interest was 48.2 million shares, 13.8% of the float, at the 30 September settlement.
C26inferencemedium confidence
At $13.72 the company is valued at about $5.0B including debt and cash, roughly 11 times the $416-462M of yearly operating income management expects from the two leases from mid-2028. That rent arrives only after $2.3-2.5B of building, mostly borrowed, and the price also buys mining, engineering, the bitcoin and Corsicana.
sourceResearch pack for RIOT (FMP market tier, FINRA short…primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 investor presentation (8-K exhibit…primary
against this
- The new project debt, $1.7-2.1B, would sit ahead of shareholders (C18).
- Mining burned cash in the first half (C10), which the leases must first outrun.
C17facthigh confidence
To start the 191 MW build Riot took a $573.0M delayed-draw loan from lenders led by Morgan Stanley, secured only on the project and not on Riot, at SOFR plus 2.75%. The 8-K says it matures on 31 December 2026; the 10-Q filed four days earlier said 15 October 2026, subject to extension on refinancing.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 8-K: $573M credit agreement with Morgan…primaryRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary
against this
The lender has no claim on Riot itself, so a failed takeout would cost the project rather than the parent.
C18management claimmedium confidence
Management plans to replace the bridge with long-term debt once an investment-grade backstop is finalised, borrowing 80% to 90% of cost, $1.7-2.1B, leaving $210-460M of equity. It also expected a $180M term loan on AMD's first 25 MW to close before the end of Q3 2026, cutting the net equity need to $30-280M.
sourceRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 investor presentation (8-K exhibit…primary
against this
- No 8-K announced the AMD term loan or the takeout by 17 October 2026 (S08 and the filing list).
- Management declined to name the backstop provider or terms (C34).
C10facthigh confidence
Riot held 18,005 bitcoin on 1 January 2026, sold 9,665 for $732.5M in the first half and held 11,380 on 30 June, worth $666.0M, with 5,821 pledged to a loan. Cash was $548.9M, $77.5M of it restricted. Operating cash flow was minus $272.8M for the half, and management calls bitcoin sales its main source of funding.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The half included a one-off $20.0M legal settlement in operating cash flow.
- Bitcoin rose about 39% from its 30 June price by mid-October (C09), lifting what the remaining coins fetch.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- The financing slips. If lenders lend less than planned, Riot must sell more bitcoin or issue shares to fund its part of the build.
- One tenant. The frontier lab is about 88% of the contracted rent; a delay or dispute with it moves almost the whole case.
- A first Tier 3 hall. Riot has delivered one 25 MW hall; the 191 MW build to the tenant's design is a far larger job.
- More shares. Stock awards keep adding shares, and the 2030 notes become about 40 million shares above about $14.86.
- Bitcoin falls. Mining revenue moves with bitcoin; a lower price means more coins sold to pay for building.
- Rivals with new power. Once Texas hands out new grid capacity from 2028, sites like Riot's become less scarce.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C17facthigh confidence
To start the 191 MW build Riot took a $573.0M delayed-draw loan from lenders led by Morgan Stanley, secured only on the project and not on Riot, at SOFR plus 2.75%. The 8-K says it matures on 31 December 2026; the 10-Q filed four days earlier said 15 October 2026, subject to extension on refinancing.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 8-K: $573M credit agreement with Morgan…primaryRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary
against this
The lender has no claim on Riot itself, so a failed takeout would cost the project rather than the parent.
C18management claimmedium confidence
Management plans to replace the bridge with long-term debt once an investment-grade backstop is finalised, borrowing 80% to 90% of cost, $1.7-2.1B, leaving $210-460M of equity. It also expected a $180M term loan on AMD's first 25 MW to close before the end of Q3 2026, cutting the net equity need to $30-280M.
sourceRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 investor presentation (8-K exhibit…primary
against this
- No 8-K announced the AMD term loan or the takeout by 17 October 2026 (S08 and the filing list).
- Management declined to name the backstop provider or terms (C34).
C15facthigh confidence
In August 2026 Riot signed a lease with a frontier AI lab for 191 MW of critical IT capacity at Rockdale, a Tier 3 build-to-suit: 96 MW due December 2027 and the rest June 2028. The 20-year term starts at full delivery and carries two five-year renewals and about $9.1B of base rent. With AMD, 241 MW is leased.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 results release (8-K exhibit 99.1)primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primary
against this
- The lease is described in the 10-Q and an 8-K item, but the contract itself has not been filed as an exhibit.
- No rent is paid until the first hall is delivered in December 2027.
C19factmedium confidence
Bloomberg reported, and ForkLog repeated, that the frontier AI lab behind the 191 MW lease is Anthropic; Riot has not named its tenant.
against this
Riot's own filings say only a leading frontier AI lab; the name rests on unnamed sources in the press.
C12facthigh confidence
The 2030 notes convert at 67.2767 shares per $1,000, about $14.86 a share, so $594.4M would become about 40.0 million shares. Holders could convert during Q3 2026 because the stock traded above 130% of that price, and Riot intends to settle any conversion in shares.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary
against this
The shares closed at $13.72 on 16 October, below the conversion price, so converting now would lose holders money.
C13facthigh confidence
Shares outstanding rose from 350.2 million on 1 April 2025 to 378.0 million on 30 June 2026 and were 375.3 million on 7 August. No shares were sold under the $500M at-the-market program in the first half of 2026; holders added 15.0 million shares to the stock plan in June, and 16.5 million restricted shares vested in July after the 2023 award paid at its 200% maximum.
C09inferencemedium confidence
At mid-October prices hashprice is about $37 per PH a day before fees, above Q2's $34, because bitcoin rose from about $60,000 in late June to $81,381. Each $1 of hashprice is worth about $13.6M a year of mining revenue at Riot's Q2 operating hash rate.
sourceFMP daily bitcoin prices (BTCUSD), 25 June to 17 October 2026primarymempool.space mining API: network hash rate, three months to…primaryRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary
against this
- The network's hash rate keeps rising, which lowers each machine's share (C08).
- Riot's own mining capacity may shrink as Rockdale power moves to data centres, which the company has not quantified.
C28facthigh confidence
Rival filings describe the same product: Cipher says several miners, naming Hut 8, IREN, TeraWulf, Core Scientific and Applied Digital, have signed leases with hyperscalers and HPC tenants; TeraWulf calls itself an owner of HPC infrastructure on reused industrial sites; Applied Digital builds about 150 MW campuses in 14 to 18 months for investment-grade hyperscalers.
What we still do not know
- Who backs the 191 MW project's long-term debt, and on what terms?
- How much of Rockdale's mining the new hall will switch off, and when.
- Whether the Corsicana letter of intent becomes a signed lease, and at what rent.
- Whether any 2030 notes were converted into shares during Q3 2026.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C18management claimmedium confidence
Management plans to replace the bridge with long-term debt once an investment-grade backstop is finalised, borrowing 80% to 90% of cost, $1.7-2.1B, leaving $210-460M of equity. It also expected a $180M term loan on AMD's first 25 MW to close before the end of Q3 2026, cutting the net equity need to $30-280M.
sourceRiot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held…primaryRiot Platforms Q2 2026 investor presentation (8-K exhibit…primary
against this
- No 8-K announced the AMD term loan or the takeout by 17 October 2026 (S08 and the filing list).
- Management declined to name the backstop provider or terms (C34).
C34facthigh confidence
On the Q2 2026 call management declined to name the takeout lenders or terms for the 191 MW project, saying diligence was well advanced and the process should conclude in the near term.
C22management claimlow confidence
Management says the whole Corsicana campus, 1 GW of approved power that could support 756 MW of critical IT capacity, is under a non-binding letter of intent with one unnamed tenant, in advanced commercial and design talks, and calls converting it into a lease a 2026 priority.
against this
- No Corsicana lease had been announced or filed by 17 October 2026.
- Management itself said a letter of intent is not a signed lease.
C12facthigh confidence
The 2030 notes convert at 67.2767 shares per $1,000, about $14.86 a share, so $594.4M would become about 40.0 million shares. Holders could convert during Q3 2026 because the stock traded above 130% of that price, and Riot intends to settle any conversion in shares.
sourceRiot Platforms Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary
against this
The shares closed at $13.72 on 16 October, below the conversion price, so converting now would lose holders money.
C09inferencemedium confidence
At mid-October prices hashprice is about $37 per PH a day before fees, above Q2's $34, because bitcoin rose from about $60,000 in late June to $81,381. Each $1 of hashprice is worth about $13.6M a year of mining revenue at Riot's Q2 operating hash rate.
sourceFMP daily bitcoin prices (BTCUSD), 25 June to 17 October 2026primarymempool.space mining API: network hash rate, three months to…primaryRiot Platforms Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary
against this
- The network's hash rate keeps rising, which lowers each machine's share (C08).
- Riot's own mining capacity may shrink as Rockdale power moves to data centres, which the company has not quantified.
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveThe build is financed and the next site signs
It needs all of:
- ○Long-term loans cover at least 80% of the 191 MW build, with no new shares sold.watched as it happens
- ○A signed lease for at least 300 MW at Corsicana.watched as it happens
- Neutral→AttractiveA price at which mining alone is paid for
It needs:
- ○The company's value falls to 5 times its yearly sales, about where pure miners trade.checked daily
We would also be wrong if
- The bridge loan is repaid with new shares or extended past mid-2027.
- The first 96 MW for the frontier lab slips past March 2028.
- Shares outstanding pass 430 million before the lab's hall opens.
What is coming
- 29 October 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether the bridge was taken out or extended, whether the AMD loan closed, and mining at a higher bitcoin price.
Every dated event ahead
- 29 October 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether the bridge was taken out or extended, whether the AMD loan closed, and mining at a higher bitcoin price.
- 31 December 2026 Bridge loan maturity: Whether long-term financing for the 191 MW project is in place.
- 31 May 2027 AMD's second 25 MW delivered: Whether Riot keeps delivering halls on time.
- 31 December 2027 First 96 MW delivered to the frontier lab: Whether the Tier 3 hall is built on time and rent begins.
Since we wrote this
Written
18 Oct
Price the thesis read
$13.72
16 Oct
Latest close
$13.56
close, · -1.2% since
- 28 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Asymmetric to SpeculationRe-priced at the 27 October close.
- 26 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Speculation to AsymmetricRe-priced at the 23 October close.
- 18 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten eleven days before Q3 results, after the shares fell 40% in three weeks with the whole group while bitcoin barely moved.
Sources 21
Where this came from
Sources - 21
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-03-02the business, competition classes, power contracts, convertible notes and risk factorsbacksC01C02C07C12
- S02primarycompany release2026-03-022025 revenue by segment and the net lossbacksC02
- S03primarycompany filing2026-08-10segments, cost to mine, power credits, bitcoin held and sold, debt, shares, both leases and the bridge loanbacksC01C03C04C05C06C07C08C09C10C11C12C13C14C15C17C23C33
- S04primarycompany release2026-08-10the quarter's results, the lab lease terms and liquiditybacksC03C10C14C15
- S05primarycompany release2026-08-10lease revenue, operating income and capital cost per lease, hashprice by quarter and the financing planbacksC08C16C18C26
- S06primarytranscript2026-08-10Riot Platforms Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 10 August 2026the Corsicana letter of intent, the financing plan, the batch-process remark and the backlog
the entire Corsicana campus is now under a nonbinding LOI to a single tenant
backsC10C34C15C16C18C21C22C23 - S07primarycompany filing2026-08-14the bridge loan's size, security, rate and maturitybacksC17
- S08primarycompany filing2026-09-25the $200M bitcoin-backed loan repaid in fullbacksC11
- S09primarycompany filing2026-04-30insider ownership, the say-on-pay vote and the bonus and long-term award designbacksC13C30C31
- S10primaryvendor data2026-10-16Research pack for RIOT (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, filed cohort), fetched 18 October 2026the 16 October close, market and company value, the price move split, ratings, short interest, the filed cohort and the earnings datebacksC24C26C27C29C32C33
- S11primaryregulator2026-07-29large-load requests by status and year, energized load and the Batch Zero milestones
ERCOT is tracking approximately 474 GW of Large Loads seeking interconnection, of which ~90% are data centers.
backsC20C21 - S12primaryregulator2026-06-18ERCOT news release: PUCT approves ERCOT's Batch Zero process for connecting large electricity users ERCOTthe batch process for loads of 75 MW or more and the 438 GW of requests in June
ensuring large electricity users like data centers only connect in quantities and locations the Texas grid can reliably support
backsC20C21 - S13secondarynews2026-08-11the press identification of the frontier lab
According to Bloomberg , the partner is Anthropic.
backsC19 - S14primarycompany filing2026-02-27a converted miner describing itself as an HPC infrastructure owner on reused industrial sitesbacksC28
- S15primarycompany filing2026-02-24Cipher Digital Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025 Cipher Digitalthe miners named as having signed leases with hyperscalers and HPC tenantsbacksC28
- S16primarycompany filing2026-07-29Applied Digital Form 10-K for the year ended 31 May 2026 Applied Digitala rival building about 150 MW AI campuses for investment-grade hyperscalersbacksC28
- S17primaryvendor data2026-10-17FMP daily bitcoin prices (BTCUSD), 25 June to 17 October 2026bitcoin's close on 17 October and its path since JunebacksC09C25
- S18primaryindustry data2026-10-18the network's average hash rate over the last 30 days
{"hashrates":[{"timestamp":1784419200,"avgHashrate":1.036719851877133e+21}
backsC09 - S19primarycompany filing2026-08-14Form 4 filings by Riot insiders, read for the Rule 10b5-1 flag (scripts/insider_fetch.py)nine open-market sales, all under pre-arranged plansbacksC30
- S20primaryvendor data2026-10-16FMP daily closes for Riot, its filed peers, CoreWeave and the Nasdaq-100 fund, 25 September to 16 October 2026each name's fall over the three weeksbacksC25
- S21primarycompany filing2025-11-19Powell Industries Form 10-K for the year ended 30 September 2025 Powell Industriesa rival maker of switchgear and power control roomsbacksC35