IREN Limited
A former bitcoin miner turning its power-hungry sites into data centres, filling them with NVIDIA's chips and renting them to AI labs under contracts lasting years.
The scores
Growth3/4 ↑
AI Cloud revenue grew eightfold and $4B of run-rate is signed, but June-quarter revenue fell as mining stopped; a two-year record.
Business quality2/4 →
Owned power and rising prices in a shortage, but an outside rater ranks its managed cloud bottom and the GPUs are the same everyone rents.
Financial position2/4 ↓
Cash roughly matches debt, but next year's plan needs $3B to $8B not yet raised, and the newest GPU debt costs 9% over 30 months.
Execution record2/4 →
Signed Microsoft and NVIDIA and delivered Horizon 1, but late on NVIDIA supply, and users report outages at the older sites.
Per share capture1/4 ↓
Revenue rose 41% while revenue per share stood still; next year's build may need as many new shares again, and founders' grants vest on time.
Potential3/4 ↑
A bounded upside substantially committed: $4B contracted and largely funded, on power already granted, with 2027 still unsold.
Risk profile2/4 →
Microsoft and NVIDIA are most of the contracted revenue, and three Microsoft tranches can each be ended in one step if late.
Valuation3/4 ↑
At about 3 times the contracted run-rate, the price pays for the 2026 contracts roughly as described and little for the 2027 build.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Revenue, contracts and debt are filed, but deal prices and the run-rate are management's word, and no counterparty names IREN.
If it works 2.3× · if it fails you keep up to 55%.
The Verdict
We rate IREN neutral. It owns sites with scarce grid power and rents NVIDIA's chips in them to AI labs, but the business is weak for now: Microsoft and NVIDIA have signed, yet an outside rater calls its older sites the industry's worst and growth is paid for in new shares. The price is fair for the contracts already signed and pays little for what comes after. As a bet it is speculative: if the next build is sold and funded mostly with debt, the shares could be worth about twice today's; if it stalls, shareholders keep at most about half. It turns on who pays for next year's build.
The long casePower for AI computing is scarcer than chips, and IREN already holds the grid connections, so it can rent GPUs to labs if it can fund the building.
The evidence under this - 10 claims
A grid agreement is not energised capacity: Sweetwater 1's first building and substation are still under construction, and Kiowa, Bundey and Badajoz are 2028 projects.
Horizon 1 itself was late, delayed by NVIDIA component shortages, and if a funded tranche ends without a new customer IREN guarantees that tranche's GPU debt.
NVIDIA is also the sole GPU supplier and holds a right to invest up to $2.1B in IREN shares, so its contract is not an arm's-length test of demand.
- Microsoft accepted Horizon 1 at Childress and NVIDIA certified it as an Exemplar Cloud, so the largest buyers' own tests passed where the rating is worst.
- SemiAnalysis sells consulting to GPU clouds and their buyers; it is independent of IREN but not of the market it rates.
- The company value uses June 30 net debt; September-quarter spending will have raised it.
- About $3B of the $4B was not yet billing, so the multiple on revenue actually earned is far higher.
- Nebius's run-rate is mostly billing already, while three quarters of IREN's $4B is still to be delivered, so part of the discount is delivery risk rather than funding.
- Analysts' $7.28B for fiscal 2028 at the cohort's lowest multiple would be worth more than twice today's company value, so the price may assume less than the plan.
Four analysts is a thin base, and the 2028 figure needs about 550 MW of IT load billing, more than the 300 MW due in 2026.
Management has not split the $25B to $30B between 2026 deliveries and 2027 builds, so the $7B is this thesis's figure.
- The rest, roughly $3B to $8B, has no named source, and corporate sources include new shares and convertibles.
- The data centres are all unencumbered today, so asset finance against them could fill much of the gap without equity.
Debt against the unencumbered data centres could fund all of it, and higher prepayments on new deals have exceeded GPU cost before.
The company
IREN builds data centres on land it owns, connected to grid power it secured while it was a bitcoin miner, and fills them with racks of NVIDIA's newest chips. AI labs and companies rent those chips, mostly as bare machines they run themselves, to train and run their models.
The alternatives are renting from Microsoft, Amazon, Google or another specialist, or building. About 40 MW was running AI work in June; Microsoft accepted IREN's first purpose-built hall in August, while an outside rater says older Canadian sites let users down.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
A grid agreement is not energised capacity: Sweetwater 1's first building and substation are still under construction, and Kiowa, Bundey and Badajoz are 2028 projects.
- Microsoft accepted Horizon 1 at Childress and NVIDIA certified it as an Exemplar Cloud, so the largest buyers' own tests passed where the rating is worst.
- SemiAnalysis sells consulting to GPU clouds and their buyers; it is independent of IREN but not of the market it rates.
How it makes money
A customer signs for a block of chips for three to five years, pays a large share up front, and then pays monthly whether it uses them or not. IREN borrows against each contract to buy the chips, so the prepayment and the loan cover most of the cost. Bitcoin mining still brought in most of last year's revenue, and it ends in December.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
- The payback is stated on management's own costs for capacity not yet running; no customer has published a price.
- The Microsoft contract, the largest, works out near $10M a year per megawatt of its 200 MW, so the blended book is well below the recent-deal figure.
AI Cloud was still 18% of the year's revenue; the fourth quarter's $70.5M was the first quarter it approached half.
Mining still earned $578.2M in FY26 and its margin funded the build; switching it off before GPUs bill leaves quarters like June's, when revenue fell 27% on a year earlier.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (FY2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin mining | 81.8% | Mining bitcoin with its own machines on its own power, paid in bitcoin; being switched off by December 2026. |
| AI Cloud Services | 18.2% | Renting NVIDIA GPU clusters to AI labs and companies, mostly under multi-year prepaid contracts; about half of revenue by the June quarter. |
Who runs it
Brothers Daniel and William Roberts founded IREN in 2018 and run it together as co-chief executives. They own about 3% of the shares each, but special shares give each almost a fifth of the votes. In June each received restricted shares valued at $275.9M that vest with time alone, with no performance test. Their yearly share awards depend on beating the Russell 2000 index; no award rides on sales, profit or returns.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
The board presents the grant as replacing five years of annual awards, so the yearly cost is lower than the headline suggests.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
In AI computing the shortage is not chips but power: a new data centre can wait years for a grid connection, and British Columbia and Texas are now rationing or reviewing new ones. IREN already holds about 5 GW of connections.
That shows up in prices. Management says three-year contract prices more than doubled since November and recent deals pay back the chips in about two years; Nebius, a rival, prices its deals at the same level, and an outside index of chip rents is still rising.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
A grid agreement is not energised capacity: Sweetwater 1's first building and substation are still under construction, and Kiowa, Bundey and Badajoz are 2028 projects.
- The payback is stated on management's own costs for capacity not yet running; no customer has published a price.
- The Microsoft contract, the largest, works out near $10M a year per megawatt of its 200 MW, so the blended book is well below the recent-deal figure.
Both figures are companies describing their own deals; no buyer has confirmed either.
The H100 is two generations old; IREN's contracts are on B200, B300 and GB300 systems the index does not track, so it shows the market's direction rather than IREN's prices.
The threat
Bigger specialists sell the same thing: CoreWeave's backlog is many times IREN's, and Nebius is rated top tier where IREN is rated bottom. Google now sells its own chips, which Anthropic is buying. And Microsoft, IREN's largest customer, is building its own data centres too.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
CoreWeave's margin fell partly because capacity comes online ahead of its revenue, which IREN's own 2027 ramp will repeat.
Both figures are companies describing their own deals; no buyer has confirmed either.
- Microsoft accepted Horizon 1 at Childress and NVIDIA certified it as an Exemplar Cloud, so the largest buyers' own tests passed where the rating is worst.
- SemiAnalysis sells consulting to GPU clouds and their buyers; it is independent of IREN but not of the market it rates.
Anthropic also signed up to $44.6B with Nscale, which rents NVIDIA chips, so the move to TPUs adds a supplier rather than replacing one.
Meta says most of its $349.31B of commitments are third-party cloud capacity, so its own building has not stopped it renting.
The rivals: CRWV, NBIS, GOOGL, MSFT, META, AMZN, ORCL, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRWV | CoreWeave, Inc.Priced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| NBIS | Nebius Group N.V.Priced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| Private | Nscale, Crusoe and LambdaPriced against it: Private | On sale | Private |
| GOOGL | Google TPU systems sold to outside customersPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| MSFT · META | Microsoft's and Meta's own data-centre buildsPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| AMZN | Amazon.comPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| ORCL | OraclePriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
How big it could get
How big this could get
Specialised AI clouds took in more than $25B in 2025, with $9B in the last quarter alone, up 223% on a year earlier. The International Energy Agency expects the electricity used by AI servers to grow about 30% a year to 2030. Nobody publishes how much capacity these clouds rent out, so the market can be bounded but not counted.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Synergy's forecast of close to $400B by 2031 is a projection, not a measurement, and is not used here.
The IEA's own range runs from a lower efficiency case to a higher lift-off case; the base case is one scenario of several.
CoreWeave's margin fell partly because capacity comes online ahead of its revenue, which IREN's own 2027 ramp will repeat.
Who has signed
Microsoft signed about $9.7B over five years for four halls in Texas, and NVIDIA about $3.4B over five years; together they are most of what is contracted. Smaller labs such as Perplexity, Figure AI and Together AI fill the rest, and an unnamed frontier lab signed in August. None of the buyers has published its terms.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Horizon 1 itself was late, delayed by NVIDIA component shortages, and if a funded tranche ends without a new customer IREN guarantees that tranche's GPU debt.
NVIDIA is also the sole GPU supplier and holds a right to invest up to $2.1B in IREN shares, so its contract is not an arm's-length test of demand.
The results
The numbers
Sales grew 41% in the year to Jun 2026, slower than the 168% in the year before.
Operating margin is −148%, up from −208% in the year to Jun 2023.
Running costs take 217¢ of each sales dollar, down from 256¢ in the year to Jun 2023.
Shareholders' money lost 23% a year, up from −56% in the year to Jun 2023.
It used $898M of cash in the latest year, so the $5.90B it holds lasts about 6.6 years at that pace.
It owes $1.70B more than the cash it holds, about 0.8 years of the cash its operations bring in.
The share count rose 477% in 3.0 years, and pay in shares costs 29% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-18. Fiscal years end in June.
| Jun 2023 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||
| Sales | $75.5M | $187M | $501M | $707M |
| Sales growth | - | +148% | +168% | +41% |
| Profit | ||||
| Gross margin | 48% | 53% | 68% | 69% |
| Operating margin | −208% | −15% | 3.5% | −148% |
| Net margin | −228% | −15% | 17% | −99% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||
| Sales and marketing | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 2.9% |
| Pay in shares | 19% | 13% | 8.5% | 29% |
| Capital spending | 154% | 76% | 114% | 424% |
| Cash | ||||
| Cash from operations | $5.73M | $52.2M | $246M | $2.10B |
| Free cash flow | −$110M | −$89.6M | −$328M | −$898M |
| Balance sheet | ||||
| Cash and short-term investments | - | $411M | $565M | $5.90B |
| Debt | - | - | $963M | $7.59B |
| Net cash | - | - | −$398M | −$1.70B |
| Returns and shares | ||||
| Return on capital | - | - | 0.8% | - |
| Shares (diluted) | 54.8M | 99.6M | 223M | 316M |
What growth costs
Growth is making the company less profitable for now. Overhead, much of it pay in shares, rose far faster than sales as staff nearly tripled ahead of the revenue. The bigger cost is building: spending on halls and chips ran at several times sales, and as that equipment switches on, depreciation will climb with it.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
The last report (27 Aug)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
In the year to June 2026 IREN's revenue rose 41% to $707.0M, but the mix is what mattered: AI rentals grew from $16.4M to $128.8M, while mining, still most of the total, began shutting down. In the June quarter alone revenue fell from a year earlier as miners were switched off before the chips arrived.
It lost $702.6M for the year, mostly by writing down retired mining machines. Cash from operations was $2.10B, almost all of it customers paying in advance, against more than $4B spent on buildings and chips.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the switch is real: the AI business is growing fast and customers are paying in advance. It also showed the cost: heavy write-downs, spending far above the cash coming in, and a plan for next year far larger than the company. The view stays Neutral.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $-1.89 against $-0.55 expected.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
AI Cloud was still 18% of the year's revenue; the fourth quarter's $70.5M was the first quarter it approached half.
A $558.5M unrealised gain on financial instruments sits below the operating line, so the net loss understates the operating one.
What management did with the money
Last year IREN raised money mostly by selling new shares and convertible bonds, spent $1.63B retiring older convertibles, and bought Mirantis, a software firm, mostly with shares. It pays no dividend and buys back no shares.
Insiders in 2026Q3: 9 purchases and 0 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Part of the share issuance retired older convertibles in December 2025, at a cost of $1,632.4M, so not all of it was new money.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Fair. Buyers pay roughly for the contracts already signed being delivered, and little for the 2027 build, which the market treats as a cost to shareholders.
The shares have fallen about 60% in a year while revenue per share stood still, and they fell by a fifth in three days in October after a research firm warned that most neoclouds may not survive as independent businesses.
The next tests are close. Results on November 5 should show whether $4B of rentals is still on track and how the build is being paid for; Microsoft's remaining three halls are due by December.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
- Only the Microsoft and NVIDIA contract totals are in the 10-K; the rest of the $4B rests on the company's own count, and no counterparty has disclosed its contract.
- Management said most of the new revenue shows in the March 2027 quarter, so the December quarter will report little of it.
Horizon 1 itself was late, delayed by NVIDIA component shortages, and if a funded tranche ends without a new customer IREN guarantees that tranche's GPU debt.
How we read the multiple
Trailing sales are mostly a bitcoin business being shut down, so the better measure is what the signed contracts are worth.
On that measure the price is low, but what it leaves out is the cost of the next build, which is larger than the company itself.
- The company, debts included, is valued at about $12.6B.
- That is about 3.1 times the $4B a year of rentals signed for 2026.
- Analysts expect revenue of $7.28B in the year to June 2028.
- Next year's building plan alone costs $25B to $30B.
Against its own history. Much dearer on past sales than its own normal, because those sales came from bitcoin mining; the rentals it is now selling are a different business.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
- The company value uses June 30 net debt; September-quarter spending will have raised it.
- About $3B of the $4B was not yet billing, so the multiple on revenue actually earned is far higher.
- Nebius's run-rate is mostly billing already, while three quarters of IREN's $4B is still to be delivered, so part of the discount is delivery risk rather than funding.
- Analysts' $7.28B for fiscal 2028 at the cohort's lowest multiple would be worth more than twice today's company value, so the price may assume less than the plan.
Four analysts is a thin base, and the 2028 figure needs about 550 MW of IT load billing, more than the 300 MW due in 2026.
- The rest, roughly $3B to $8B, has no named source, and corporate sources include new shares and convertibles.
- The data centres are all unencumbered today, so asset finance against them could fill much of the gap without equity.
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of sales, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | company value for each $1 of sales |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon.com | 3.7× |
| ORCL | Oracle | 7.1× |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | 9.4× |
| CRWV | CoreWeave | 10.4× |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 12.2× |
| IREN | IREN Limited | 17.8× |
| NBIS | Nebius Group | 30.8× |
The middle of the other 6 is 9.9. IREN Limited is 2nd dearest of 7.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
Dearer than most rivals on past sales, but that measure reads the mining business; on signed rentals it is among the cheapest of the specialists.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Crusoe, Lambda, Nscale, SpaceX.
The bet: what it pays if it works
If it works, the shares could be worth about twice today's. The best case we can defend is the revenue analysts expect for the year to June 2028: this year's contracts plus about half of next year's build, rented at recent prices and valued like the cheaper clouds, before the new shares the build may need.
If it fails, with the build stalled and money hard to raise, shareholders keep the contracts already signed, less the debt that built them: at most about half of today's value.
| Revenue in two to three years | Megawatts of IT load billing needed | At the stated multiple |
|---|---|---|
| $2.00B | about 150 at 100% kept | 0.6× |
| $7.28B (the big win) | about 547 at 100% kept | 2.3× |
| $13.20B | about 992 at 100% kept | 4.2× |
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $6.28B of revenue (about 472 megawatts of IT load billing); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $15.71B of revenue (about 1.2K megawatts of IT load billing), at the same multiple.
The steps it has to take
- Done Microsoft and NVIDIA signed: about $9.7B and $3.4B over five years
- Done Horizon 1 delivered and accepted by Microsoft
- Done $4B of 2026 run-rate contracted, recent deals above $20M a megawatt
- In progress Horizons 2 to 4 accepted inside the grace periods due 2027-04
- In progress More than $4B of run-rate billing by the end of December 2026 due 2027-02
- In progress FY27 build funded mostly with GPU debt, prepayments and site debt due 2027-06
- Not started The 0.5 GW of 2027 IT load contracted and delivered due 2027-12
- Not started Fiscal 2028 revenue near $7.3B due 2028-08
The detail behind the label
The evidence under this - 7 claims
Four analysts is a thin base, and the 2028 figure needs about 550 MW of IT load billing, more than the 300 MW due in 2026.
Horizon 1 slipped on NVIDIA supply, and the 10-K says IREN builds with many separate contractors rather than one fixed-price builder, so no single party bears a delay.
- The payback is stated on management's own costs for capacity not yet running; no customer has published a price.
- The Microsoft contract, the largest, works out near $10M a year per megawatt of its 200 MW, so the blended book is well below the recent-deal figure.
- Only the Microsoft and NVIDIA contract totals are in the 10-K; the rest of the $4B rests on the company's own count, and no counterparty has disclosed its contract.
- Management said most of the new revenue shows in the March 2027 quarter, so the December quarter will report little of it.
Management has not split the $25B to $30B between 2026 deliveries and 2027 builds, so the $7B is this thesis's figure.
Debt against the unencumbered data centres could fund all of it, and higher prepayments on new deals have exceeded GPU cost before.
Where we disagree with the market
Analysts see a cheap AI cloud with power and signed demand; since September the market fears it cannot pay for its own growth.
The 2026 contracts are real and largely paid for; whether shareholders gain after that depends on how the next build is financed.
The bulls look at cheap signed revenue and stop; the bears look at the spending plan and stop. The answer sits in how the building is financed: debt against the data centres, which are unpledged today, costs shareholders little, while new shares at today's price cost them a lot.
Against us: the company has raised about $19B in a year and every contract so far came with large prepayments, so the money may keep coming.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 5 claims
- The company value uses June 30 net debt; September-quarter spending will have raised it.
- About $3B of the $4B was not yet billing, so the multiple on revenue actually earned is far higher.
- Nebius's run-rate is mostly billing already, while three quarters of IREN's $4B is still to be delivered, so part of the discount is delivery risk rather than funding.
- Analysts' $7.28B for fiscal 2028 at the cohort's lowest multiple would be worth more than twice today's company value, so the price may assume less than the plan.
Debt against the unencumbered data centres could fund all of it, and higher prepayments on new deals have exceeded GPU cost before.
- The rest, roughly $3B to $8B, has no named source, and corporate sources include new shares and convertibles.
- The data centres are all unencumbered today, so asset finance against them could fill much of the gap without equity.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- Paying for the build. Next year's plan costs more than twice the company's value; if the gap is filled with new shares, revenue per share may barely grow again.
- Microsoft walks from a hall. Three Microsoft halls are due by December; if one is late past its grace period, Microsoft may end it and IREN owes its chip loans.
- Two customers. Microsoft and NVIDIA are most of what is signed; losing either would cut the contracted business deeply.
- A poor service reputation. An outside rater ranks its older Canadian sites the industry's worst, which can cost renewals from the smaller labs.
- Expensive, short loans. The newest chip loans cost 9% and fall due within 30 months, before the contracts or the chips have run their course.
- Rivals and their own chips. Bigger specialists hold far larger backlogs, and Google's own chips give labs a way to skip NVIDIA rentals altogether.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
- The rest, roughly $3B to $8B, has no named source, and corporate sources include new shares and convertibles.
- The data centres are all unencumbered today, so asset finance against them could fill much of the gap without equity.
Debt against the unencumbered data centres could fund all of it, and higher prepayments on new deals have exceeded GPU cost before.
Horizon 1 itself was late, delayed by NVIDIA component shortages, and if a funded tranche ends without a new customer IREN guarantees that tranche's GPU debt.
NVIDIA is also the sole GPU supplier and holds a right to invest up to $2.1B in IREN shares, so its contract is not an arm's-length test of demand.
- Microsoft accepted Horizon 1 at Childress and NVIDIA certified it as an Exemplar Cloud, so the largest buyers' own tests passed where the rating is worst.
- SemiAnalysis sells consulting to GPU clouds and their buyers; it is independent of IREN but not of the market it rates.
Anthropic also signed up to $44.6B with Nscale, which rents NVIDIA chips, so the move to TPUs adds a supplier rather than replacing one.
What we still do not know
- What price per megawatt the Microsoft and NVIDIA contracts actually carry; no buyer has published its terms.
- How the $3B to $8B of next year's plan with no named source will be raised, and how much of it in shares.
- Who the frontier lab is: a report named Anthropic, and neither company has confirmed it.
- Whether the older Canadian sites have fixed the outages users describe.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
- The payback is stated on management's own costs for capacity not yet running; no customer has published a price.
- The Microsoft contract, the largest, works out near $10M a year per megawatt of its 200 MW, so the blended book is well below the recent-deal figure.
- The rest, roughly $3B to $8B, has no named source, and corporate sources include new shares and convertibles.
- The data centres are all unencumbered today, so asset finance against them could fill much of the gap without equity.
- Microsoft accepted Horizon 1 at Childress and NVIDIA certified it as an Exemplar Cloud, so the largest buyers' own tests passed where the rating is worst.
- SemiAnalysis sells consulting to GPU clouds and their buyers; it is independent of IREN but not of the market it rates.
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveThe build is funded with debt and Microsoft's halls land
It needs all of:
- ○New shares issued in the year to June 2027 stay below a tenth of the count, the rest paid with debt on the data centres.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
- ○Microsoft accepts its three remaining halls within the grace periods.watched as it happens
- Neutral→UnattractiveA tranche ends or the shares pay for the build
It needs any of:
- ○Microsoft ends one of its halls because it arrived late.watched as it happens
- ○New shares issued in the year to June 2027 exceed a fifth of the count.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
- ○Rentals actually billing at the end of 2026 come to less than $3.5B a year.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
We would also be wrong if
- New contracts for 2027 capacity sign below $15M a year per megawatt.
What is coming
- 5 November 2026 Q1 FY27 results: Whether contracted run-rate holds above $4B, Horizons 2 to 4 are on schedule, and how much of the FY27 funding gap has been raised and in what form.
Every dated event ahead
- 5 November 2026 Q1 FY27 results: Whether contracted run-rate holds above $4B, Horizons 2 to 4 are on schedule, and how much of the FY27 funding gap has been raised and in what form.
- 24 November 2026 2026 annual meeting: Whether shareholders approve buying back the shares held under the convertibles' hedges, and the vote on the directors.
- 31 December 2026 Horizons 2 to 4 delivered to Microsoft: Whether the remaining three Microsoft tranches are accepted on time, or slip into the grace periods that let Microsoft walk.
- February 2027 Q2 FY27 results: Whether more than $4B of run-rate is billing at year-end, contracts for 2027 capacity and their price, and the end of mining.
Since we wrote this
- 21 OctNewsSpanish 300 MW campus announced; release unreadable, view heldThe release could not be opened; the site was already counted in the thesis, so nothing moved.
- 18 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionThe 2026 contracts are real and the price is low on them, but next year's build costs more than twice the market value and nothing yet shows who pays for it.
Also checked 1 time with nothing new to act on.
Sources 25
Sources - 25
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-08-27Item 1 business and sites, the competition section, the Microsoft and NVIDIA contracts and their delivery and termination terms, customer concentration, the segment note, useful lives, property and equipment, the convertible notes and GPU financing notes, subsequent events (Mirantis, the Mackenzie financing), headcount and the regulation of new large loadsbacksC01C02C03C04C07C08C12C16C17C18C20C21C22C23C24C25C44C47C48C50C51
- S02primarycompany release2026-08-27revenue by segment, net loss, impairments, adjusted EBITDA, the cash-flow statement, the balance sheet, contracted ARR, contract pricing and prepayments, the new GPU financings and the delivery targetsbacksC02C05C06C15C16C17C22C25C28C45C48C49
- S03primarytranscript2026-08-27IREN FY26 fourth-quarter earnings call transcript (FMP, via scripts/transcript_fetch.py)FY27 capex of about $25B to $30B and the funding plan for it, ARR of about $1B today, the delivery targets of about 300 MW of IT load in 2026 and another 0.5 GW in 2027, pricing above $20M per megawatt, 6% and 9% GPU financing, mining switched off by December, headcount and SG&A guidance; analysts named in the handoffs included Goldman Sachs, Macquarie, Cantor, Compass Point, B. Riley, H.C. Wainwright, BTIG and Canaccord
3-year contract pricing is up about 125% since November, 5-year is up about 70%.
backsC03C05C06C10C19C20C44C45 - S04primarycompany release2026-07-20the year-end ARR target raised from $3.7B to more than $4B, about 85% contracted, prepayments near 45%, a weighted average term of about four years, and the named customersbacksC09
- S05primarycompany release2026-08-13the first 50 MW liquid-cooled tranche at Childress delivered and accepted, and NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status on GB300 NVL72backsC12
- S06primarycompany filing2026-10-13the ownership table at September 28, 2026, the B Class shares and their votes, the co-chief executives' Staking Grants, the short-term and performance share plans, the executive biographies, and the November 24, 2026 meeting's proposalsbacksC40C41C42C52
- S07primarycompany filing2026-05-19about $1.6B of GPU servers bought from Dell to serve the five-year NVIDIA cloud contractbacksC08
- S08primaryindustry data2026-09-23SemiAnalysis, ClusterMAX 3.0 rating of GPU clouds SemiAnalysisIREN rated Not Recommended - Underperforming on its managed cloud at the British Columbia sites; Childress and Sweetwater said to look much better; a recommendation that IREN focus on bare metal, where demand is plentiful. SemiAnalysis sells consulting to clouds and buyers
The #1 worst site in the industry according to users.
backsC11 - S09primaryindustry data2026-04-02Synergy Research Group, neocloud market forecast Synergy Research Groupthe measured size of the specialised AI cloud market in 2025, and a forecast near $400B by 2031 that is not used here
neocloud revenues are scaling at an unprecedented pace, reaching $9 billion in Q4-up 223% year-over-year-and exceeding $25 billion for full-year 2025
backsC33 - S10primarygovernment data2025-04-10data-centre electricity more than doubling to about 945 TWh by 2030; the PDF was read from the IEA's own file host
Electricity consumption in accelerated servers, which is mainly driven by AI technology adoption (Box 2.1), is projected to grow by 30% annually in the Base Case
backsC34 - S11primaryindustry data2026-10-17the index page read 'As of Oct 17, 2026 2.82 USD / GPU-hour', up 6.4% over seven days
The H100 Rental Price Index (Neo-Cloud ticker SDH100RT) is the Silicon Data benchmark for NVIDIA H100 GPU rental pricing.
backsC13 - S12primarycompany filing2026-08-12$103.7B of remaining performance obligations and customer concentration; taken from the Nebius thesis's reading of 2026-10-02, not re-readbacksC32C37
- S13primarycompany release2026-08-11an adjusted operating margin of 5% against 16% a year earlier; taken from the Nebius thesis's reading of 2026-10-02backsC32
- S14primarycompany filing2026-07-29$329.1B of datacenter leases not yet commenced and reliance on outside cloud infrastructure; no mention of IREN; taken from the Nebius thesis's reading of 2026-10-02backsC36
- S15primarycompany filing2026-07-302026 capex guided at $130B to $145B and $349.31B of commitments, mostly third-party cloud capacity; taken from the Nebius thesis's readingbacksC36
- S16primarycompany filing2026-07-24the sale of TPU systems to outside customers; taken from the Nebius thesis's readingbacksC35
- S17primarycompany release2026-04-06a large AI buyer moving part of its compute to Google's own chips
We have signed a new agreement with Google and Broadcom for multiple gigawatts of next-generation TPU capacity that we expect to come online starting in 2027.
backsC35 - S18primarycompany filing2026-09-18Nscale Form S-1 Nscalestatements of work with Microsoft worth up to about $43.8B and Anthropic agreements up to about $44.6B; taken from the Nebius thesis's readingbacksC37
- S19primarycompany release2026-08-12a rival's four Q2 2026 deals priced at $20M to $25M a year per megawatt with prepayments of 50% to 60%; taken from the Nebius thesis's reading of 2026-10-02backsC14
- S20secondarynews2026-09-08the company's September 8 announcement as an outlet reported it; the GlobeNewswire release closes the connection and no filing carries it (scripts/press_fetch.py walked the filing and outlet routes)
its 2 GW Sweetwater Hub in Texas was conditionally included as Base Load in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) Batch Zero process
backsC38 - S21secondarynews2026-10-13an unconfirmed report naming Anthropic as the undisclosed frontier-lab customer
Neither IREN nor Anthropic has confirmed the reported contract, leaving shares vulnerable to further drift without a fresh catalyst.
backsC10 - S22secondarynews2026-10-15The Motley Fool, Stock Market Today, Oct. 15: Iren slides on concerns over neocloud provider viability The Motley FoolGartner's warning as reported, the shares at a 52-week low, CoreWeave's high-yield bonds near 15%; Gartner's report itself is paywalled and was not read
Gartner warned more than 80% of neocloud providers could cease current operations as independent businesses by 2030.
backsC39 - S23primaryvendor data2026-10-18Research pack, frozen at content/IREN/research-pack.jsonprice, returns, the price-move decomposition, the analyst split and its drift, short interest, consensus revenue estimates, the filed competitor cohort and its multiplesbacksC22C25C26C27C28C31C43
- S24primarycompany filing2026-10-18Form 4 filings, read via scripts/insider_fetch.pynine filings since IREN began filing Form 4 in July 2026, all grants and vestings; no open-market purchase or salebacksC43
- S25primarycompany filing2026-03-02a six-year useful life for computing equipment; taken from the Nebius thesis's readingbacksC24