Microsoft
The company behind Windows and Office, which now earns most of its money renting computing and AI to businesses through Azure and selling Microsoft 365 subscriptions.
The scores
Growth3/4 ↑
Revenue up 19% and operating income 21%, Azure up 48%, but $10.0B of the quarter came from OpenAI, a related party Microsoft funds.
Business quality4/4 →
Dominant in office software in the EU's view, with price rises sticking on slow seat growth; AI labs selling agents directly are the untested attack.
Financial position3/4 ↓
Net cash and self-funding, but $743.8B of obligations and $364.6B of leases not yet started behave like debt, and free cash flow is falling.
Execution record4/4 →
A decade of growth under the same chief executive and CFO, nine straight EPS beats and the Azure guide beaten; spending rises were signalled.
Per share capture4/4 →
The diluted count fell 1.2% in four years, buybacks exceed stock pay, Activision was bought for cash and there are no convertibles.
Potential3/4 ↑
20% of a $500B cloud market growing 43%, with $677B signed; the upside needs the build to pay and the backlog to outgrow OpenAI.
Risk profile3/4 ↓
One serious concentration: OpenAI, a related party, was $24.1B of revenue and about 45% of the backlog, and may now use any cloud.
Valuation3/4 ↓
At 25.9 times operating profit and a P/E of 29.2 against its 34.2 median, the price reflects the plan; on cash it is dearer.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Revenue, cash, backlog and commitments are filed; share is measured outside; OpenAI's backlog share and AI usage rest on reporting and management.
The Verdict
We rate Microsoft neutral. The business is strong: its office software is so embedded that it keeps raising prices, and Azure, its cloud, grew 40% last year. But to keep up with AI demand it nearly doubled its spending on data centres, so profit rose while the cash left over fell for a second year. On profit the price is fair; on cash it is dear. The view hinges on whether that spending turns back into cash, and on how much of the cloud's signed business still rests on OpenAI.
The long caseCompanies want more AI computing than anyone can build, and Microsoft sells both the cloud and the office tools it runs in; the spending must turn back into cash.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
The commitments avoided an infringement finding, so dominance is the Commission's preliminary view, not a ruling.
Part of the revenue per seat is Copilot and E5 upgrades, which customers chose rather than had imposed.
- 2026-10-28editedthe September 2026 quarter cash flow statement
The spending buys capacity against a signed backlog (C06), and management says the short-lived chips are bought against contracted demand (S03).
Each rival's multiple also prices a business Microsoft lacks, retail, search ads or database licences, so the comparison bounds the price rather than fixing it.
On earnings the price is below its own median (C24), and consensus has fiscal 2027 EPS at $19.74, about 27 times (C26).
Management says backlog excluding OpenAI grew 25% and that the June quarter's sequential growth came from other customers (C07).
The company
Microsoft runs huge data centres and rents them out. Through Azure, a business can run its software and AI models, OpenAI's among them, without owning servers; Microsoft holds a fifth of that market. Through Microsoft 365, employers pay a monthly fee per worker for Word, Excel, Outlook, Teams, security and now the Copilot AI assistant.
The alternative for a cloud buyer is Amazon, Google or its own servers; for an office, Google Workspace, or AI agents bought straight from the labs.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
Thirty million seats is a small share of a base Microsoft puts at more than 430 million users of its apps (S08), and Business Insider reports Copilot lagging ChatGPT and Claude in adoption (C20).
How it makes money
Most money arrives as subscriptions and usage bills. Employers pay per worker each month for Microsoft 365, and Azure customers pay for every hour of computing they use. Together these cloud services brought in $214.4B in fiscal 2026, two-thirds of sales, and keep 66 cents of each dollar after the cost of running them.
What keeps it coming is that both are wired into how a company works, so the bills renew year after year.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Intelligent Cloud's margin fell from 42.0% to 41.3% as cost of revenue grew faster than revenue, the first sign that the build's depreciation is reaching segment profit.
Capital spending is not an expense when paid: depreciation and amortisation were $38.5B in fiscal 2026 against $115.9B spent, so most of the build has yet to reach the margin.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (FY2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Server products and cloud services | 39.0% | Azure computing, storage and AI models, plus SQL Server, Windows Server and GitHub, sold by use or by licence. |
| Microsoft 365 Commercial | 30.7% | Office apps, Exchange email, Teams, security and Copilot sold to employers per user a month. |
| Xbox | 6.6% | Game content and services, including Activision titles and Game Pass, and consoles. |
| 6.0% | Recruiting tools, premium subscriptions, advertising and learning. | |
| Windows and devices | 5.1% | Windows licences sold through PC makers and to businesses, and Surface hardware. |
| Search advertising | 4.6% | Bing and Microsoft Advertising, net of payments to partners. |
| Microsoft 365 Consumer | 2.8% | Personal and Family subscriptions with Copilot. |
| Dynamics | 2.7% | Business applications for finance, sales and service, mostly Dynamics 365 subscriptions. |
| Enterprise and partner services | 2.5% | Support contracts and consulting. |
Who runs it
Satya Nadella has run Microsoft since 2014 and chaired it since 2021, and Amy Hood has been finance chief since 2013. Together they own about 1.4 million shares; all directors and officers together own under 1%.
Nadella's pay rides on revenue and operating profit, and his shares on Azure, cloud, consumer and Xbox growth. Nothing pays on cash flow or on the return the data centres earn.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
Leaving Microsoft 365 means moving every worker's files, email and sign-in, and retraining everyone. The European Commission's view was that Microsoft dominates office software for professional use, and it made Microsoft sell Office without Teams in Europe.
The proof is pricing. Paid seats grew only 6% last year, yet sales from them grew 17%, and in July 2026 Microsoft raised list prices again, by up to 17%, worldwide.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The commitments avoided an infringement finding, so dominance is the Commission's preliminary view, not a ruling.
The increases came with security and device-management tools added to the suites, so part of the rise is a larger bundle rather than the same product dearer.
Part of the revenue per seat is Copilot and E5 upgrades, which customers chose rather than had imposed.
The threat
The new attack comes from the AI labs Microsoft partners with. OpenAI and Anthropic now sell AI agents and coding tools straight to the same employers; Disney dropped GitHub Copilot for OpenAI's Codex. In the cloud, Amazon, Google, Oracle and newer AI clouds compete for the same capacity, and since April OpenAI may buy from any of them.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Management says GitHub Copilot has 50 million users and the GitHub platform had its best month ever after a pricing change (S03).
Microsoft resells both labs' models in its own products and Foundry, so it earns on their success as well as competing with it.
OpenAI's products still launch first on Azure unless Microsoft cannot or will not provide the capacity, so the primary position survives the amendment.
The rivals: AMZN, GOOG, ORCL, CRWV, CRM, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | Where it competes | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon Web ServicesPriced against it: Yes | Azure and server products | On sale | Yes |
| GOOG | Google Cloud and Google WorkspacePriced against it: Yes | Azure and server products | On sale | Yes |
| ORCL | Oracle Cloud InfrastructurePriced against it: Yes | Azure and server products | On sale | Yes |
| CRWV | CoreWeave and other AI cloudsPriced against it: One segment only | Azure and server products | On sale | One segment only |
| Private | OpenAI's ChatGPT Enterprise and CodexPriced against it: Private | Microsoft 365 | On sale | Private |
| Private | Anthropic's Claude Enterprise and CoworkPriced against it: Private | Microsoft 365 | On sale | Private |
| CRM | SalesforcePriced against it: One segment only | - | On sale | One segment only |
How big it could get
How big this could get
Synergy Research measured the cloud market at $500B over the last twelve months, growing 43%, and Microsoft holds 20% of it. Nobody publishes the market in chips or hours, so that is a bound, not a sum.
Microsoft has $678B of signed contracts to draw on, about two and a half years of work, though a large part was OpenAI's at the last count.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Much of the growth is OpenAI's commitment signed in fiscal 2026 (C10), so the headline overstates how broad the new demand is.
- 2026-10-28editedthe September 2026 quarter figure replaces June's
Management says backlog excluding OpenAI grew 25% and that the June quarter's sequential growth came from other customers (C07).
Who has signed
OpenAI is the one named buyer: it said it would buy $250B of Azure, and it paid Microsoft $24.1B last year and $10.0B in the latest quarter. Signed business was $677B in September, level with June; no filing splits it by customer.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Much of the growth is OpenAI's commitment signed in fiscal 2026 (C10), so the headline overstates how broad the new demand is.
- 2026-10-28editedthe September 2026 quarter figure replaces June's
- The 10-K gives no split of the backlog by customer, so the share outside OpenAI cannot be checked from a filing.
- OpenAI alone was $24.1B of fiscal 2026 revenue (C08), about 7% of the total and a larger share of Azure.
Management says backlog excluding OpenAI grew 25% and that the June quarter's sequential growth came from other customers (C07).
- 2026-10-28editedthe September 2026 quarter OpenAI related-party figures
Where the growth is coming from, business by business
Where the growth is coming from
| Business | Share of revenue | Growth: last quarter | Last half-year | Last year | Share in 3 years at its half-year rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azure and server products | 41% | +33.1% | +32.4% | +31.5% | 54% |
| Microsoft 365 | 34% | +14.9% | +16.2% | +16.8% | 30% |
| Rest of the company | 25% | +1.9% | +2.8% | +3.5% | 16% |
| Whole company | 100% | +17.7% | +18.0% | +17.8% | 100% |
On the filed split through 2026-06-30, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 20% next year and 22% in year 3, against 17.8% over the last twelve months. Azure and server products grows fastest: it grows 32% against 10% for the rest, and would be 54% of revenue by then. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.
How we read it: Azure and server products grow about three times faster than the rest and carry the case; the 3 rests on the blend because part of that growth is OpenAI's.
The results
The numbers
Sales grew 18% over the twelve months to Sep 2026, about the same pace as the 18% in the year to Jun 2026.
Operating margin is 47%, up from 45% in the year to Jun 2024.
Running costs take 21¢ of each sales dollar, down from 26¢ in the year to Jun 2022.
Each dollar put into the business earns 29% a year after tax, down from 35% in the year to Jun 2022.
It turned 17% of sales into free cash, $60.0B over the last twelve months, after spending 39% of sales on buildings and equipment.
It holds $64.5B of cash against $35.5B of debt, $29.0B more cash than it owes.
The share count fell 1.2% in 4.3 years, and pay in shares costs 3.6% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-28. Fiscal years end in June.
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2026 | 12 mo to Sep 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $198B | $212B | $245B | $282B | $332B | $346B |
| Sales growth | +18% | +6.9% | +16% | +15% | +18% | +18% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Gross margin | 68% | 69% | 70% | 69% | 68% | 68% |
| Operating margin | 42% | 42% | 45% | 46% | 47% | 47% |
| Net margin | 37% | 34% | 36% | 36% | 40% | 41% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Research and development | 12% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 11% |
| Sales and marketing | 11% | 11% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% |
| General and admin | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% |
| Pay in shares | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% |
| Capital spending | 12% | 13% | 18% | 23% | 35% | 39% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | $89.0B | $87.6B | $119B | $136B | $183B | $196B |
| Free cash flow | $65.1B | $59.5B | $74.1B | $71.6B | $67.0B | $60.0B |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $105B | $111B | $75.5B | $94.6B | $76.8B | $64.5B |
| Debt | $49.8B | $47.2B | $44.9B | $43.2B | $40.3B | $35.5B |
| Net cash | $55.0B | $64.0B | $30.6B | $51.4B | $36.5B | $29.0B |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Return on capital | 35% | 31% | 32% | 30% | 29% | 29% |
| Shares (diluted) | 7.54B | 7.47B | 7.47B | 7.46B | 7.45B | 7.45B |
What growth costs
Growth has got cheaper in the profit line: sales and marketing, research and admin all take less of each dollar than in 2022, so the operating margin rose to 46.8%. The cost that is climbing is building: data-centre spending went from 12 cents of each sales dollar to 35, and most of it has not yet been charged against profit.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Capital spending is not an expense when paid: depreciation and amortisation were $38.5B in fiscal 2026 against $115.9B spent, so most of the build has yet to reach the margin.
The spending buys capacity against a signed backlog (C06), and management says the short-lived chips are bought against contracted demand (S03).
- 2026-10-28editedthe September 2026 quarter cash flow statement
The last report (29 Jul)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
In the quarter to September 2026, sales grew 19% to $92.3B and operating profit 21%. Azure grew 48%, above the 44% to 45% promised and up from 43% in June. Signed cloud business was $677B, level with June.
The cash side was weaker. Data centres took $39.4B, so free cash flow was $18.6B against $25.7B a year earlier, about $60.0B over twelve months. OpenAI paid $10.0B, and leases not yet started rose to $364.6B.
On the call, management guided Azure growth of 49% to 50% for December and about $170B of capital spending for the year, with free cash flow staying positive. Contracts outside OpenAI got no figure.
What it did to the thesisAzure and Office beat the bars we set, so the business half is stronger. The call raised the Azure guide but left the contracts outside OpenAI unanswered, so the view stays Neutral.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $4.74 against $4.24 expected.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
- 2026-10-28editedthe September 2026 quarter replaces the June quarter
Much of the growth is OpenAI's commitment signed in fiscal 2026 (C10), so the headline overstates how broad the new demand is.
- 2026-10-28editedthe September 2026 quarter figure replaces June's
- 2026-10-28editedthe September 2026 quarter OpenAI related-party figures
- 2026-10-28editedthe September 2026 quarter cash flow statement
- 2026-10-28editedleases not yet started grew in the September 2026 quarter
Azure grew 42% in the June quarter under the new definition (C05), so the guide asks for acceleration while capacity is the stated constraint.
- 2026-10-28editedthe guide was tested by the September 2026 results
- 2026-10-29editedQ1 fiscal 2027 call: capital spending $45.2B against a guide above $50B, finance leases $7.4B
Management said the Azure guide leans on efficiency gains and on supply it counts on, and that some third-party contracts moved to the second half; it gave no figure for contract value outside OpenAI.
What management did with the money
Last year Microsoft paid $26.4B in dividends and $22.3B buying back shares, but its biggest use of cash by far was $115.9B of data centres. In the September quarter it returned $10.2B, spent $39.4B on data centres and signed leases not yet started now total $364.6B.
Insiders in 2026Q3: 33 purchases and 28 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
- 2026-10-28editedSeptember 2026 quarter capital returned
- 2026-10-28editedthe September 2026 quarter cash flow statement
- 2026-10-28editedleases not yet started grew in the September 2026 quarter
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Fair. On profit the price is below its own normal and its rivals' middle, so it pays for the business roughly as management plans it; on cash it pays for spending that has not yet paid back.
The shares fell more than a fifth in June 2026 on fears about the spending, then jumped 15.5% the day after the June-quarter report and have risen 50% from the low. The rise in six months came mostly from buyers paying more for each dollar of sales.
On 28 October Microsoft reported its first quarter under new segments: Azure grew 48% against the 44% to 45% promised, and the call guided December to 49% to 50%. The next test is the December quarter, due by the end of January.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
Azure grew 42% in the June quarter under the new definition (C05), so the guide asks for acceleration while capacity is the stated constraint.
- 2026-10-28editedthe guide was tested by the September 2026 results
- 2026-10-29editedQ1 fiscal 2027 call: capital spending $45.2B against a guide above $50B, finance leases $7.4B
Management said the Azure guide leans on efficiency gains and on supply it counts on, and that some third-party contracts moved to the second half; it gave no figure for contract value outside OpenAI.
How we read the multiple
Buyers pay about 26 times a year's operating profit for the whole company, less than for Alphabet or Amazon. But profit runs ahead of cash while the build lasts, so the cash a share earns is the stricter test.
- The price is about 58 times last year's free cash flow of $67.0B.
- Over six years buyers usually got about 2.4 cents of cash for each dollar paid; today it is 1.7 cents.
- Getting back there needs free cash flow up about 40%, to near $94B, while spending is still rising.
Against its own history. Cheaper than its own past on profit, dearer on cash. The two readings part because the data centres are paid for now and charged against profit over many years.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
Each rival's multiple also prices a business Microsoft lacks, retail, search ads or database licences, so the comparison bounds the price rather than fixing it.
On earnings the price is below its own median (C24), and consensus has fiscal 2027 EPS at $19.74, about 27 times (C26).
- 2026-10-28editedthe September 2026 quarter cash flow statement
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of operating profit, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | company value for each $1 of operating profit |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | Oracle | 23.0× |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 25.9× |
| GOOG | Alphabet | 28.5× |
| AMZN | Amazon.com | 31.0× |
The middle of the other 3 is 28.5. Microsoft Corporation is 2nd cheapest of 4.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
Below the middle of its rivals and above Oracle, with the best margins of the four, so on profit the price is not out of line with the group.
Where we disagree with the market
Microsoft is the safest AI winner: Azure is speeding up, Copilot sells into a captive base, and the June sell-off was an overreaction.
The business is as strong as the market thinks, but its profit now runs well ahead of its cash, and the gap is widening.
Twice in 2026 the market sold Microsoft over the cost of its build, in January and June, and twice the next report answered with faster Azure growth. It did not answer on cash: free cash flow fell again, and $364.6B of leases are still to start.
The case against us is demand. Management says customers outside the AI labs drove all of the latest growth in signed contracts. If that holds, the spending fills quickly and the cash follows.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 8 claims
- 2026-10-28editedthe run of beats reached nine
- 2026-10-28editedthe September 2026 quarter cash flow statement
- 2026-10-28editedleases not yet started grew in the September 2026 quarter
The spending buys capacity against a signed backlog (C06), and management says the short-lived chips are bought against contracted demand (S03).
- The 10-K gives no split of the backlog by customer, so the share outside OpenAI cannot be checked from a filing.
- OpenAI alone was $24.1B of fiscal 2026 revenue (C08), about 7% of the total and a larger share of Azure.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- OpenAI moves its work. OpenAI was $24.1B of sales and about 45% of signed cloud contracts in January, and since April it may buy computing from any cloud.
- AI labs sell around Office. If employers buy agents from OpenAI or Anthropic instead of Copilot, the price rises that carry Microsoft 365 get harder to push through.
- The spending does not pay. $743.8B of obligations and $364.6B of leases not yet started are committed before the revenue that would repay them.
- Profit flatters cash further. From fiscal 2027 data centres are written off over 25 years instead of 15, so reported profit will run further ahead of cash.
- Regulators police the bundle. The European Commission called Microsoft dominant in office software; bundling Copilot could draw the same scrutiny Teams did.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
- 2026-10-28editedthe September 2026 quarter OpenAI related-party figures
OpenAI's products still launch first on Azure unless Microsoft cannot or will not provide the capacity, so the primary position survives the amendment.
Management says backlog excluding OpenAI grew 25% and that the June quarter's sequential growth came from other customers (C07).
Management says GitHub Copilot has 50 million users and the GitHub platform had its best month ever after a pricing change (S03).
Microsoft resells both labs' models in its own products and Foundry, so it earns on their success as well as competing with it.
- 2026-10-28editedleases not yet started grew in the September 2026 quarter
Longer asset lives lower depreciation for every year after fiscal 2027, so reported profit will lead cash by more than it does today.
The commitments avoided an infringement finding, so dominance is the Commission's preliminary view, not a ruling.
What we still do not know
- How much of the $677B of signed cloud contracts is OpenAI's today; Microsoft gave a share in January and not since.
- What cash a gigawatt of new data centres brings in; Microsoft gives no target for the return.
- How many Microsoft 365 customers already pay OpenAI or Anthropic directly for AI agents.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Management says backlog excluding OpenAI grew 25% and that the June quarter's sequential growth came from other customers (C07).
- The 10-K gives no split of the backlog by customer, so the share outside OpenAI cannot be checked from a filing.
- OpenAI alone was $24.1B of fiscal 2026 revenue (C08), about 7% of the total and a larger share of Azure.
Longer asset lives lower depreciation for every year after fiscal 2027, so reported profit will lead cash by more than it does today.
Management says GitHub Copilot has 50 million users and the GitHub platform had its best month ever after a pricing change (S03).
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveThe price falls to the cheapest rival's multiple
It needs:
- ○Buyers pay only 23 dollars for each dollar of yearly operating profit, debt included, as they do for Oracle, the cheapest rival.about ≈$470.03 today, 11% below the last close
- Neutral→AttractiveThe build pays for itself in cash
It needs:
- ○Free cash flow over twelve months climbs above $80B, from $60.0B, showing the build paying in cash.checked at the next results, due by 31 Jan
- Neutral→UnattractiveAzure or Microsoft 365 slows sharply
It needs any of:
- ○Azure's sales growth falls below 30%, from 48%.checked at the next results, due by 31 Jan
- ○Growth in Microsoft 365 business subscriptions falls below 10%, from 17%.checked at the next results, due by 31 Jan
We would also be wrong if
- OpenAI cuts or moves part of its Azure commitment, or signed contracts from other customers stop growing.
- Free cash flow over twelve months falls below $50B.
What is coming
- 8 December 2026 Annual shareholders' meeting and the 2026 proxy statement: Whether the pay plan adds a cash-flow or return-on-capital measure while spending doubles, and current insider ownership.
Every dated event ahead
- 8 December 2026 Annual shareholders' meeting and the 2026 proxy statement: Whether the pay plan adds a cash-flow or return-on-capital measure while spending doubles, and current insider ownership.
- 31 January 2027 December 2026 quarter results: Whether free cash flow holds near $18B a quarter as the leases begin and the useful-life change lands, and how the backlog moves without new OpenAI contracts.
- 31 December 2030 OpenAI's capped revenue-share payments end: How much of the OpenAI revenue was the revenue share rather than Azure use.
Since we wrote this
- 29 OctEarningsThe call guided Azure to 49% to 50%; Neutral heldManagement raised the Azure guide and kept free cash flow positive, but gave no figure for contracts outside OpenAI, so the view held.
- 28 OctEarningsAzure grew 48%, beating the guide; cash flow weakerAzure and Microsoft 365 cleared our bars, but free cash flow fell to $18.6B and contracts were level at $677B, so Neutral held.
- 26 OctNewsMicrosoft offers voluntary exits to about 60,000 staff; terms like standard severance. View heldVoluntary exit offer to about 60,000 employees.
- 21 OctNewsOpenAI will sell models on Google Cloud, as its April Microsoft deal allows. View heldOpenAI models coming to Google Cloud.
- 7 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten three weeks before the September 2026 quarter, the first under the new segments, after the shares rose 50% from the June low to $529.30.
Also checked 6 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 20
Sources - 20
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-07-29Item 1 (products, competition by class, workforce), risk factors on AI partners, revenue by product, segment results, Microsoft Cloud, OpenAI related-party note, cash flow, leases, commitments, debt, repurchasesbacksC01C02C03C04C06C08C11C12C13C21C23C24C32C33C35
- S02primarycompany release2026-07-29June quarter and full-year revenue, operating income, adjusted EPS, Microsoft Cloud, business-line growthbacksC02C03C06C11C36
- S03primarytranscript2026-07-29Fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings call transcriptdata/cache/transcripts/MSFT-2026Q4.jsonCopilot seats, capacity added, demand against supply, bookings excluding OpenAI, the share of cloud revenue outside frontier labs, fiscal 2027 and September-quarter guidance, the useful-life change, calendar 2026 capital spending
we now have over 30 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats
backsC07C11C14C15C34C36 - S04primarycompany filing2026-09-02Agents and Infra and Devices and Consumer recast for fiscal 2026, Azure revenue as a figure, Microsoft 365 cloud, the September-quarter outlook on the new segmentsbacksC05C34
- S05secondaryvendor data2026-10-07Research pack (FMP market tier and filed statements), frozen at content/MSFT/research-pack.jsoncontent/MSFT/research-pack.jsonprice, market value, enterprise value, returns and their decomposition, the filed cohort's multiples, valuation history, consensus, estimates, short interest, earnings history, insider base rate, headcount series, daily closesbacksC22C23C24C25C26C27C28C35
- S06primaryindustry data2026-07-30cloud infrastructure market size, growth and shares by provider; generative AI services growth; the fastest-growing second tier
Q2’s worldwide market share was 28%, 20%, and 15%, respectively
backsC16 - S07secondarynews2025-09-23Slaughter and May competition newsletter: European Commission accepts commitments in respect of Microsoft Teams European Commissionthe Commission's preliminary finding of dominance, the commitments accepted on 12 September 2025 and their seven-year term; the Commission's own press page renders only by script
Microsoft had abused its dominant position in the market for Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) productivity applications for professional use
backsC17 - S08secondarynews2025-12-09the July 2026 list price changes by suite, the March 2022 precedent, the 430 million users figure
Microsoft 365 E3 will increase from $36 to $42, while Microsoft 365 E5 will rise from $57 to $65.
backsC18 - S09secondarynews2026-04-29the April 2026 amendment: any cloud, primary provider, non-exclusive licence, revenue-share changes; OpenAI's own page refused the fetch
Microsoft will retain a license to OpenAI intellectual property, including models and products, through 2032, but the license is now non-exclusive rather than exclusive.
backsC09 - S10secondaryanalyst2026-04-28OpenAI's share of the December 2025 backlog, the $250B Azure purchase commitment, OpenAI's Amazon and Google deals, analysts' reading of the amendment
Of this total, 45 percent was attributable to OpenAI’s Azure commitments over multiple years
backsC09C10 - S11secondarynews2026-07-29a named customer replacing GitHub Copilot with OpenAI's Codex and keeping Claude and Cursor; Copilot's adoption against rivals
The Mouse House is ditching Microsoft's GitHub Copilot and several other AI coding tools in August in the US
backsC20 - S12primarycompany filing2025-10-21directors and executive officers, beneficial ownership, the compensation discussion and analysis: cash incentive and performance award metricsbacksC29C30C31
- S13primarycompany filing2026-10-07open-market sales and purchases, the Rule 10b5-1 flag on eachbacksC27
- S14primaryregulator2026-09-15short interest in MSFT and its share of floatbacksC26
- S15primarycompany filing2026-02-06AWS on-demand computing sold to the same enterprises that buy Azureread, but no claim rests on it
- S16primarycompany filing2026-02-05Google Cloud and Workspace, rivals to Azure and Microsoft 365read, but no claim rests on it
- S17primarycompany filing2026-06-23Oracle Cloud Infrastructure's share of Oracle's cloud revenue; database and applications rivals to Azure and Dynamicsread, but no claim rests on it
- S18primarycompany release2026-10-28revenue, operating income, Azure, Microsoft Cloud, Microsoft 365 and contract value for the September 2026 quarterbacksC06C26C34C36
- S19primarycompany filing2026-10-28cash flow, balance sheet, OpenAI related-party figures, contract value and leases not yet started at September 30, 2026backsC06C08C11C12C13C32C34C36
- S20primarytranscript2026-10-28First quarter fiscal 2027 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-10-28data/cache/transcripts/MSFT-2027Q1.jsonthe December quarter guide, capital spending path, the finance-lease share of capital spending, why Azure beat, funding options; analysts from Morgan Stanley, UBS, Bernstein, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, Stifel and Bank of America
In Azure, we expect revenue growth of 49% to 50% in constant currency with continued efficiency gains across our CPU and GPU fleet
backsC34C38