Salesforce
Salesforce rents the software big companies use to track their customers, sell to them and answer their calls, and is now adding AI agents that do part of that work.
The scores
Growth3/4 →
Revenue up 11%, but Informatica supplied about 4.5 points; without acquisitions growth is about 6%, and Agentforce Apps grow 8%.
Business quality3/4 ↓
Steady 8% attrition and the largest CRM share show real switching costs, but share is slipping and AI coding now makes rebuilding cheaper.
Financial position3/4 ↓
Net debt of about $28B after a debt-funded buyback; free cash flow near $15B covers interest, maturities run 2028 to 2066.
Execution record3/4 →
Margins and cash flow delivered for four years, but cash flow guidance was cut for financing and AI metrics were redefined.
Per share capture3/4 ↑
Shares fell about 15% in a year, but with borrowed money, and share pay still takes about a quarter of free cash flow.
Potential2/4 →
More revenue needs agents to add sales faster than they cut seats, upgrades beyond 5% of users, and customers not building their own.
Risk profile3/4 →
No customer near 10% of revenue, but a founder chief executive steers frequent large cash acquisitions and a concentrated Anthropic stake.
Valuation3/4 ↑
About 17 times cash after share pay implies about 3% growth for ever: the plan working, not the core alone.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Financials are filed and rivals' filings name Salesforce, but the AI figures and seat claims are management's and IDC arrives second-hand.
If it works 1.1× · if it fails you keep about 100%.
The Verdict
We rate Salesforce neutral. It rents the software big companies run their sales and customer service on, and the business is solid: customers rarely leave and it keeps about a fifth of its market. But growth without acquisitions is only about 6%, and AI coding tools now let some customers build their own. The price is fair: after counting what it pays staff in shares, it assumes the current plan works and little more. As a bet it is defensive: the existing business roughly covers the price, but even a big success for its AI agents adds only a little.
The long caseIf companies hand routine sales and service work to software agents, Salesforce, which already holds their customer records, can charge for the agents' work instead of the seats.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
- The exclusions leave out exactly the self-serve and newly bought customers most likely to leave.
- Curative cancelled a $600,000-a-year contract for an in-house build (C22).
- The share slipped 0.7 points in a year.
- Both figures reach us through Salesforce's own page and a report of its announcement, not IDC's tracker.
- Management says organic growth reaccelerates in the second half and called Q3 'math' (C17).
- Net new bookings grew fastest in four years by management's account, which shows in revenue with a lag (C21).
- Market value includes $11.3B of strategic investments, chiefly Anthropic; without them the multiple is about 15.8.
- Net debt of about $27.9B sits outside market value, so on company value the multiple is about 19.2 (C12).
- Only about two quarters of interest on the $25B of March 2026 notes are inside it; Q2's $473M of interest expense annualises to about $1.9B (C15).
- Management guides fiscal 2027 free cash flow growth of only 4% to 5% (C16).
- Curative is a small start-up and its chief executive said maintaining the home-built CRM is still a challenge.
- Filed attrition held near 8% (C08).
- At the rivals' 3.0 times sales the core is worth about $150B, less than today's company value.
- The value is at fiscal 2029, not today.
The company
Salesforce keeps a company's record of its customers and runs the work around them. Sales staff track deals in it, service agents answer cases, marketers send campaigns, and Slack and its data tools move information between systems.
Customers rent it per user per year. No customer is a tenth of revenue. The alternatives are cheaper suites from HubSpot and Freshworks, Microsoft's Dynamics bundled with Office, or building their own. Its newest product, Agentforce, adds AI agents to the same software, sold in pricier editions.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
- The split was redrawn in Q1 FY2027, so only three quarters of growth rates exist on this basis.
- The second group holds Informatica, so its 20% is mostly bought (C05).
- No filed figure for users, editions or the premium; the base of 5% is unstated.
- A premium edition priced per user still depends on the number of users, which agents may cut (C28).
- Curative rebuilt its CRM in two months with AI coding (C22).
- About 8% of contract value lost each year is not low for a system of record.
How it makes money
Almost all of the money is subscriptions: $10.8B of the $11.3B Salesforce took in Q2 FY2027. Customers sign contracts, usually for a year or more, and pay ahead, so $33.5B of revenue is already contracted for the next twelve months.
Two-thirds comes from the sales, service, marketing and Slack apps, which grew 8%. The rest is data and connection tools, which grew 20%, mostly because of Informatica.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
- Informatica, bought in November 2025, supplied $456M of the $1,109M increase (C03).
- Currency helped little: growth was 11% in constant currency too.
- The split was redrawn in Q1 FY2027, so only three quarters of growth rates exist on this basis.
- The second group holds Informatica, so its 20% is mostly bought (C05).
Both include Informatica's contracts, which were not in the year-earlier figure.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (Q2 FY2027) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Agentforce Apps | 63.4% | Subscriptions to the sales, service, marketing, commerce and Slack apps, mostly priced per user, billed ahead on contracts of a year or more. |
| Data 360, Headless Platform and Other | 31.9% | Subscriptions to the data, integration and platform tools, including Informatica, Tableau and MuleSoft, and the AI agents' usage-priced layer. |
| Professional services and other | 4.6% | Consulting and training fees for setting the software up; falling as customers buy fewer large multi-year transformation projects. |
Who runs it
Marc Benioff co-founded Salesforce in 1999 and has run it since 2001. Robin Washington, on the board since 2013 and once Gilead's finance chief, took over finance in March 2025. Insiders own about 3.5%, mostly Benioff. The bonus rides on subscription sales and adjusted profit; Benioff's shares pay only if the stock beats the Nasdaq-100 and margins plus growth hit targets, or if AI sales do. None of it rides on cash left after share pay.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
- Non-GAAP operating margin excludes share pay, guided at 9.0% of fiscal 2027 revenue (C36), so no measure in the plan pays on free cash flow after share pay, the figure the valuation rests on (C10).
- The ARR the options pay on is management's own metric, and the Agentforce figure inside it was widened in Q2 FY2027 (C06).
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
A large customer builds years of records, custom fields, automations and links to other systems inside Salesforce, and trains its staff on it. Leaving means rebuilding all of that, so most customers renew: Salesforce loses about 8% of its contract value a year, the same as a year earlier.
An outside research firm, IDC, still ranks it first with 20.0% of the market in 2025, though that slipped from 20.7%. The protection is weakening at the edges: AI coding makes the rebuild cheaper.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
- Curative rebuilt its CRM in two months with AI coding (C22).
- About 8% of contract value lost each year is not low for a system of record.
- The exclusions leave out exactly the self-serve and newly bought customers most likely to leave.
- Curative cancelled a $600,000-a-year contract for an in-house build (C22).
- The share slipped 0.7 points in a year.
- Both figures reach us through Salesforce's own page and a report of its announcement, not IDC's tracker.
- Curative is a small start-up and its chief executive said maintaining the home-built CRM is still a challenge.
- Filed attrition held near 8% (C08).
The threat
The new threat is the customer itself. Curative, a health start-up, cancelled a $600,000-a-year Salesforce contract after building its own replacement in two months with AI coding tools. Salesforce's own annual report now lists AI-native companies that may bypass its workflows as competitors.
The old rivals remain: Microsoft, HubSpot, Freshworks and ServiceNow. Anthropic is both partner and possible rival for the agents.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
- Curative is a small start-up and its chief executive said maintaining the home-built CRM is still a challenge.
- Filed attrition held near 8% (C08).
- Strategic investments were carried at $11.3B in total at July 31, about 6% of market value, not half (C12).
- Anthropic sells agents of its own, so the partner is also a rival for the agent layer.
The rivals: MSFT, HUBS, FRSH, NOW, ORCL, ADBE, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | Where it competes | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| In-house | Customers' own developers using AI coding agentsPriced against it: In-house | Core clouds (Sales, Service, Marketing, Commerce, Slack, Platform, Data 360, Informatica, MuleSoft, Tableau) | On sale | In-house |
| MSFT | Microsoft Dynamics 365Priced against it: Shown, not counted | Core clouds (Sales, Service, Marketing, Commerce, Slack, Platform, Data 360, Informatica, MuleSoft, Tableau) | On sale | Shown, not counted |
| HUBS · FRSH | HubSpot and FreshworksPriced against it: Yes | Core clouds (Sales, Service, Marketing, Commerce, Slack, Platform, Data 360, Informatica, MuleSoft, Tableau) | On sale | Yes |
| NOW | ServiceNow customer service workflows and AI agentsPriced against it: One segment only | Agentforce (AI agents, premium editions, Claudeforce and Fin) | On sale | One segment only |
| Private | Anthropic's and OpenAI's own agents working on company dataPriced against it: Private | Agentforce (AI agents, premium editions, Claudeforce and Fin) | On sale | Private |
| ORCL | OraclePriced against it: One segment only | - | On sale | One segment only |
| ADBE | AdobePriced against it: One segment only | - | On sale | One segment only |
How big it could get
How big this could get
Salesforce already holds about a fifth of a market it has led for 13 years, so its main business grows with what companies spend on this software rather than by taking much more of it.
The new part, AI agents, is where it could grow faster, but nobody outside counts that market. The work they would do is large: 2,666,000 customer service jobs in the US in 2025, which the government expects to shrink 5% by 2035.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
- The share slipped 0.7 points in a year.
- Both figures reach us through Salesforce's own page and a report of its announcement, not IDC's tracker.
- The definition widened in Q2, so the $800M and $1.5B figures are not like for like.
- ARR is not revenue and is not filed in the 10-Q; Fin's purchase will add to it from Q3.
Who has signed
Customers had $66.3B of contracts not yet billed at the end of July 2026, half of it due within a year. The largest named agent deal is the US Department of Veterans Affairs: one firm year with two optional years, worth up to $1.6B in all.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
Both include Informatica's contracts, which were not in the year-earlier figure.
Where the growth is coming from, business by business
Where the growth is coming from
| Business | Share of revenue | Growth: last quarter | Last half-year | Last year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salesforce Platform and Other | 24% | +38.4% | +29.2% | +22.6% |
| Service Cloud | 23% | +8.8% | +8.9% | +8.4% |
| Sales Cloud | 21% | +9.3% | +8.9% | +8.5% |
| Integration And Analytics | 16% | +3.7% | +4.8% | +7.9% |
| Marketing and Commerce Cloud | 12% | +1.5% | +1.7% | +2.8% |
| Professional Services and Other | 5% | -3.0% | -4.3% | -3.6% |
| Whole company | 100% | +12.1% | +10.4% | +9.6% |
The filed split through 2026-01-31. These rates are not carried forward: the reading below says why.
How we read it: The score believes the blend: Platform and Other's 29% is mostly Informatica, bought in November 2025, and without it the data group grew about 6%, like the apps.
The results
The numbers
Sales grew 11% over the twelve months to Jul 2026, about the same pace as the 9.6% in the year to Jan 2026.
Operating margin is 20%, up from 14% in the year to Jan 2024.
Running costs take 57¢ of each sales dollar, down from 71¢ in the year to Jan 2022.
Each dollar put into the business earns 9.2% a year after tax, up from 0.9% in the year to Jan 2022.
It turned 34% of sales into free cash, $15.2B over the last twelve months.
It owes $27.9B more than the cash it holds, about 1.8 years of the cash its operations bring in.
The share count fell 16% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 8.3% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in January.
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2026 | 12 mo to Jul 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $26.5B | $31.4B | $34.9B | $37.9B | $41.5B | $43.9B |
| Sales growth | +25% | +18% | +11% | +8.7% | +9.6% | +11% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Gross margin | 73% | 73% | 75% | 77% | 78% | 77% |
| Operating margin | 2.1% | 3.3% | 14% | 19% | 20% | 20% |
| Net margin | 5.5% | 0.7% | 12% | 16% | 18% | 22% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Research and development | 17% | 16% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| Sales and marketing | 45% | 43% | 37% | 35% | 35% | 34% |
| General and admin | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% |
| Pay in shares | 10% | 10% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% |
| Capital spending | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | $6.00B | $7.11B | $10.2B | $13.1B | $15.0B | $15.8B |
| Free cash flow | $5.28B | $6.31B | $9.50B | $12.4B | $14.4B | $15.2B |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $10.5B | $12.5B | $14.2B | $14.0B | $9.56B | $11.4B |
| Debt | $10.6B | $10.6B | $9.43B | $8.43B | $14.4B | $39.3B |
| Net cash | −$59.0M | $1.91B | $4.77B | $5.60B | −$4.87B | −$27.9B |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Return on capital | 0.9% | - | 6.1% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.2% |
| Shares (diluted) | 974M | 997M | 984M | 974M | 956M | 821M |
What growth costs
Salesforce became far more profitable when it cut selling costs while sales kept growing. Since then growth has stopped doing that work: each cost takes about the same share of every sales dollar, so profit grows only as fast as sales. Selling is still the largest cost, and share pay is expected to rise.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
- Adjusted operating margin, which excludes share pay and acquired amortisation, reached 34.1% in fiscal 2026 (C35), so the adjusted figure shows more leverage than the GAAP one.
- Share pay is guided at 9.0% of fiscal 2027 revenue (C36), above fiscal 2026's 8.5%, and GAAP operating income was flat in Q2 FY2027 (C15).
Each acquisition adds retention grants, so share pay has not fallen as a share of revenue.
The last report (26 Aug)
Quarter ended July 2026, filed figures.
In Q2 FY2027, the three months to July 2026, revenue rose 11% to $11.3B. Without Informatica it grew about 6.4%. The main apps grew 8% after currency effects, no faster than a year earlier.
Management said the number of users grew, few customers left, and Agentforce passed $1.5B of yearly recurring revenue, though on a wider definition than before. Earnings per share jumped, but most of the jump was a gain on investments, chiefly Anthropic, not the business.
What it did to the thesisIt answered the fear that customers were leaving or cutting users, for one quarter. It did not show faster growth without acquisitions, and the earnings beat came from an investment gain, so the case for a better business than the price assumes stayed unproven.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $5.90 against $3.27 expected; $4.29 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
- Informatica, bought in November 2025, supplied $456M of the $1,109M increase (C03).
- Currency helped little: growth was 11% in constant currency too.
- Management says organic growth reaccelerates in the second half and called Q3 'math' (C17).
- Net new bookings grew fastest in four years by management's account, which shows in revenue with a lag (C21).
- The split was redrawn in Q1 FY2027, so only three quarters of growth rates exist on this basis.
- The second group holds Informatica, so its 20% is mostly bought (C05).
- The definition widened in Q2, so the $800M and $1.5B figures are not like for like.
- ARR is not revenue and is not filed in the 10-Q; Fin's purchase will add to it from Q3.
- Seat counts and bookings growth are not disclosed in figures, filed or spoken.
- Agentforce Apps revenue grew 8% in constant currency, no faster than a year earlier (C04).
What management did with the money
Management borrowed $25B in March 2026 and spent it buying back shares, cutting the share count about 15% in a year. The cost is interest: $473M in Q2 against $67M a year earlier. It also keeps buying companies for cash, including Fin for $3.6B and Contentful for about $1.5B.
Insiders in 2026Q3: 22 purchases and 37 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Fair. Once pay in shares and investment gains are taken out, the price assumes the current plan works and steady growth after it, not a return to fast growth.
The shares fell from $269.11 in December 2025 to $146.32 in June 2026, on fear that AI would shrink the number of users companies pay for. Then Q2 showed users growing, and the shares rose 22.6% in one day.
So the fear has eased but not gone: analysts have grown a little less positive since June. The next answer comes on 2 December 2026, when Salesforce reports Q3 FY2027 and should show growth without acquisitions near 7%.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
- Seat counts and bookings growth are not disclosed in figures, filed or spoken.
- Agentforce Apps revenue grew 8% in constant currency, no faster than a year earlier (C04).
- The guide includes Fin and Contentful once they close, which are not organic.
- Q2's 6.4% was below the second-half reacceleration management promised in February.
How we read the multiple
Over the last year Salesforce kept about $15.2B of spare cash. Paying staff in shares is a real cost too:
- Take off $3.7B of share pay and about $11.5B is left.
- The $193.15B market value is about 17 times that: about 6% a year.
- A common rule of thumb asks 9% a year, so growth must supply about 3% a year for ever.
- Without acquisitions it grows about 6% now, so the price is fair for the plan, not cheap.
Against its own history. Cheaper than its own past on sales, because buyers no longer pay for the fast growth they once did; the business grew slower before the price fell.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
- Only about two quarters of interest on the $25B of March 2026 notes are inside it; Q2's $473M of interest expense annualises to about $1.9B (C15).
- Management guides fiscal 2027 free cash flow growth of only 4% to 5% (C16).
- Market value includes $11.3B of strategic investments, chiefly Anthropic; without them the multiple is about 15.8.
- Net debt of about $27.9B sits outside market value, so on company value the multiple is about 19.2 (C12).
- Cash flow growth was guided at 9% to 10% in February and cut to 4% to 5% in May for the interest on the buyback debt (C44).
- The adjusted EPS guide includes about $2.98 of first-half investment gains (C18).
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on price for each $1 of spare cash, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | price for each $1 of spare cash |
|---|---|---|
| CRM | Salesforce | 12.7× |
| FRSH | Freshworks | 14.1× |
| HUBS | HubSpot | 14.3× |
| MSFT | Microsoft not in the median | 57.4× |
The middle of the other 2 is 14.2. Microsoft Corporation competes with it in one product line inside a much bigger company, so its price says little about this business and it is not counted in the middle. Salesforce, Inc. is cheapest of 3.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
Dearer than its rivals on sales but cheaper on spare cash, because it keeps far more of each sale as profit; the whole group has fallen in price.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Zoho Corporation, Anthropic, OpenAI, Intercom, Inc. (Fin).
The bet: what it pays if it works
The bet is on Agentforce alone, the AI agents. The rest of Salesforce is valued separately, at what its rivals pay for each dollar of spare cash, turned into a price per dollar of sales.
That existing business, growing steadily, is worth about today's price on its own, so the agents come free. But even if they roughly triple in two and a half years, the whole company is worth only a little more than today: a defensive bet with little upside.
| Agentforce (AI agents, premium editions, Claudeforce and Fin) revenue in two to three years | Agentforce books of today's size needed | Valued like its peers | Like the cheapest |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3.00B | about 2 at 100% kept | 1.0× | 1.0× |
| $4.50B (the big win) | about 3 at 100% kept | 1.1× | 1.1× |
| $7.00B | about 5 at 100% kept | 1.1× | 1.1× |
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $75.43B of Agentforce (AI agents, premium editions, Claudeforce and Fin) revenue (about 50 Agentforce books of today's size); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $301.07B of Agentforce (AI agents, premium editions, Claudeforce and Fin) revenue (about 201 Agentforce books of today's size), at the same multiple.
Each row is Agentforce (AI agents, premium editions, Claudeforce and Fin) alone, plus the rest of the company (Core clouds) counted at about $225.00B.
The steps it has to take
- Done Agentforce ARR passes $1B, by management's account
- Not started Agentforce ARR disclosed on a stable definition, with Fin split out due 2026-12-02
- Not started Agentforce ARR reaches about $3B due 2027-12
- Not started Agentforce ARR reaches about $4.5B due 2029-01
The detail behind the label
The evidence under this - 6 claims
- The definition widened in Q2, so the $800M and $1.5B figures are not like for like.
- ARR is not revenue and is not filed in the 10-Q; Fin's purchase will add to it from Q3.
- If agents cut seats, the core could grow nearer 3% (C28).
- Fin and Contentful add bought revenue from Q3, lifting the reported figure.
- The rivals' sales multiples are 3.0 and 3.4, so a cohort sales multiple would value the core about a third lower.
- Vendor free cash flow does not take out share pay, which is heavier at HubSpot.
- At the rivals' 3.0 times sales the core is worth about $150B, less than today's company value.
- The value is at fiscal 2029, not today.
Where we disagree with the market
Salesforce is cheap: about 14 times this year's adjusted earnings, with AI fears overdone. Most analysts rate it a buy.
It is a good business at a fair price, not a cheap one, once share pay, investment gains and new interest are counted.
The cheap reading uses adjusted earnings that include gains on the Anthropic stake, and cash flow before share pay and before a full year of interest on the new debt.
The case against us: if growth without acquisitions climbs toward 9%, as management promises, today's price would prove cheap after all.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 7 claims
- Cash flow growth was guided at 9% to 10% in February and cut to 4% to 5% in May for the interest on the buyback debt (C44).
- The adjusted EPS guide includes about $2.98 of first-half investment gains (C18).
- Only about two quarters of interest on the $25B of March 2026 notes are inside it; Q2's $473M of interest expense annualises to about $1.9B (C15).
- Management guides fiscal 2027 free cash flow growth of only 4% to 5% (C16).
- Management says organic growth reaccelerates in the second half and called Q3 'math' (C17).
- Net new bookings grew fastest in four years by management's account, which shows in revenue with a lag (C21).
- Curative is a small start-up and its chief executive said maintaining the home-built CRM is still a challenge.
- Filed attrition held near 8% (C08).
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- Customers build their own. AI coding let Curative replace a $600,000-a-year contract in two months; if larger companies follow, renewals fall.
- Agents cut paid users. Salesforce charges per user, so if AI agents shrink sales and service teams, revenue falls unless pricier editions make up for it.
- Growth is partly bought. Informatica, Fin and Contentful add revenue; without them growth is about 6%, and buying companies spends shareholders' money.
- Debt now costs real money. Interest rose to $473M a quarter after the $25B borrowing, which slows growth in the cash left for shareholders.
- AI figures are management's. Agentforce's $1.5B is a spoken figure on a widened definition, not a filed one.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
- Curative is a small start-up and its chief executive said maintaining the home-built CRM is still a challenge.
- Filed attrition held near 8% (C08).
- Seats grew year on year in Q2 by management's account (C21).
- Premium editions carry a 60% to 80% premium, which can outweigh fewer seats (C20).
- Management says organic growth reaccelerates in the second half and called Q3 'math' (C17).
- Net new bookings grew fastest in four years by management's account, which shows in revenue with a lag (C21).
- The definition widened in Q2, so the $800M and $1.5B figures are not like for like.
- ARR is not revenue and is not filed in the 10-Q; Fin's purchase will add to it from Q3.
- The share slipped 0.7 points in a year.
- Both figures reach us through Salesforce's own page and a report of its announcement, not IDC's tracker.
What we still do not know
- How much of Agentforce's $1.5B is new spending on agents rather than older products now counted in it.
- Whether the total number of paid users is rising or falling; management says it grew but gives no number.
- How large IDC's customer software market is in dollars, and how much of Salesforce's revenue it counts.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
- The definition widened in Q2, so the $800M and $1.5B figures are not like for like.
- ARR is not revenue and is not filed in the 10-Q; Fin's purchase will add to it from Q3.
- No filed figure for users, editions or the premium; the base of 5% is unstated.
- A premium edition priced per user still depends on the number of users, which agents may cut (C28).
- Seat counts and bookings growth are not disclosed in figures, filed or spoken.
- Agentforce Apps revenue grew 8% in constant currency, no faster than a year earlier (C04).
- The share slipped 0.7 points in a year.
- Both figures reach us through Salesforce's own page and a report of its announcement, not IDC's tracker.
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveThe price falls on an unchanged business
It needs all of:
- ○The market value falls to about 14 times the cash left after share pay, from about 17 today.about ≈$199.77 today, 15% below the last close
- ○The main apps keep growing 7% or more a year after currency effects.checked at the next results, due by 2 Dec
- Neutral→AttractiveOrganic growth reaccelerates
It needs all of:
- ○Revenue growth without acquisitions reaches 9% or more.checked at the next results, due by 2 Dec
- ○The main apps grow 10% or more a year after currency effects.checked at the next results, due by 2 Dec
- Neutral→UnattractiveThe seat business starts to shrink
It needs any of:
- ○The main apps grow less than 6% a year after currency effects.checked at the next results, due by 2 Dec
- ○Revenue growth without acquisitions falls below 5%.checked at the next results, due by 2 Dec
We would also be wrong if
- Salesforce loses more than about 9% of its contract value in a year.
- The cash left after share pay falls in fiscal 2028.
What is coming
- 31 October 2026 Final settlement of the $25B accelerated buyback: How many more shares the borrowed $25B retires beyond the first 103M, and whether the share price's rise since March means fewer shares or a cash payment.
Every dated event ahead
- 31 October 2026 Final settlement of the $25B accelerated buyback: How many more shares the borrowed $25B retires beyond the first 103M, and whether the share price's rise since March means fewer shares or a cash payment.
- 2 December 2026 Q3 FY2027 results: Whether growth without acquisitions reaches about 7% against Q2's 6.4%, with Agentforce Apps at 8% or more, in the first quarter including Fin and Contentful.
- March 2027 Q4 FY2027 results and the first fiscal 2028 guide: Whether the fiscal 2028 guide keeps the path to the $63B fiscal 2030 target, and whether share pay holds near 9% of revenue.
Since we wrote this
- 20 OctNewsSalesforce agrees to buy Braze for $5.66B in cash, closing in fiscal 2028. View heldSalesforce agrees to buy Braze for about $5.66B in cash.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe bet now names what it ridesThe owner asked that every bet name the macro trend behind it, after BWXT's bet was missing its chief executive's case for nuclear over gas.
- 4 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionA durable leader whose cheap look rests on adjusted figures: after share pay, gains and interest the price is fair for about 6% organic growth.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
Also checked 1 time with nothing new to act on.
Sources 23
Sources - 23
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-03-02Item 1 products and the Competition classes, including AI-native companies; no customer at 10% of revenue; 83,334 employees; fiscal 2026 cash flow and share paybacksC01C09C24C37C48C49C53
- S02primarycompany filing2026-08-26Q2 and first-half income statement, balance sheet and cash flow; revenue split by Agentforce Apps and Data 360 groups with constant-currency growth; Agentforce ARR; cRPO; Q3 and fiscal 2027 guidance; investment gains per sharebacksC02C04C06C07C12C14C15C16C18C36
- S03primarycompany filing2026-08-27attrition about 8%; the $25B notes and accelerated buyback; $6.0B term loan; Fin and Contentful agreements; RPO $66.3B; 823M shares on the coverbacksC02C07C08C12C13C14C33C45C51C52C53
- S04primarytranscript2026-08-26Q2 FY2027 earnings call transcript (FMP)data/cache/transcripts/CRM-2027Q2.jsonthe upgrade and premium figures; 'still trapped in some ways in old per user pricing models'; seat growth and attrition near lowest; Claudeforce; the Anthropic stake as 'like half our value'; 'Q3 is math'
Only 5% of the knowledge workers that use sales and service have upgraded to the higher-end editions. We get a 60% to 80% premium.
backsC16C19C20C21 - S05primarycompany filing2026-02-25fiscal 2026 revenue $41.5B, operating cash flow $15.0B and free cash flow $14.4B; original fiscal 2027 guidance including 9% to 10% cash flow growth; the $63B fiscal 2030 target including Informatica; Agentforce ARR $800MbacksC09C34C44
- S06primarytranscript2026-05-27Q1 FY2027 earnings call transcript (FMP)data/cache/transcripts/CRM-2027Q1.jsonAgentforce ARR above $1B at April 30; seat growth in Sales and Service; the cash flow guidance cut
Agentforce ARR surpassed the $1 billion mark this quarter.
backsC06 - S07primarycompany filing2026-09-16the $63B+ fiscal 2030 framework including Informatica and announced acquisitions; 190% of fiscal 2027 free cash flow returned; at least 14% share count reduction; margin and free cash flow historybacksC34C35
- S08primarycompany filing2026-02-20names Salesforce among customer service suites it competes withbacksC25
- S09primarycompany filing2026-01-29names Salesforce among enterprise application vendors it competes withbacksC26
- S10primarycompany filing2026-07-30Dynamics 365 includes CRM; no CRM revenue disclosedbacksC26
- S11secondaryindustry data2025-05-16IDC's 2024 share of 20.7%, IDC's CRM definition, and Salesforce's customer savings examples (Engine $2M a year; Sammons about 50% lower cost per routine inquiry)
According to IDC, in 2024, Salesforce led all CRM vendors with a 20.7% share and generated the highest revenue among all CRM vendors.
backsC23 - S12secondaryindustry data2026-06-25IDC's 2025 share of 20.0%
IDC said Salesforce held 20.0 percent of the global CRM market in 2025, the largest share among CRM vendors worldwide.
backsC23 - S13primarygovernment data2026-09-012,666,000 jobs in 2025 and a projected change of -141,800 by 2035
Employment of customer service representatives is projected to decline 5 percent from 2025 to 2035.
backsC27 - S15secondarynews2026-07-21the cancellation, its cost, the two-month build and the spokesperson's confirmation
That Salesforce contract cost Curative $600,000 a year, Turner said. He also said that Curative built its replacement in two months.
backsC22 - S16primarytranscript2026-05-27Q1 FY2027 earnings call transcript (FMP), cash flow guidancedata/cache/transcripts/CRM-2027Q1.jsonthe cut of fiscal 2027 cash flow growth guidance to 4% to 5%
Our recent debt issuance tied to the successful initial delivery of our ASR resulted in an approximately 5-point headwind to operating cash flow and free cash flow.
backsC44 - S17secondaryvendor data2026-10-04CRM research pack (FMP, FINRA, SEC XBRL), frozencontent/CRM/research-pack.jsonprice and return series, the price-move split, analyst ratings and target drift, short interest, insider statistics, headcount and the filed-competitor multiplesbacksC29C30
- S18primarycompany filing2026-02-12one customer platform for marketing, sales and customer service teamsbacksC25
- S19primarycompany filing2026-10-046 open-market purchases and 146 sales, 143 under 10b5-1 plansbacksC31
- S20primarycompany release2026-07-24the VA agreement's term and ceiling
The AELA is a one-year contract with the option for two additional one-year renewals, with a total contract ceiling of $1.6 billion.
backsC32 - S21secondarynews2026-07-24an outside report of the same terms, from the same release
The VA award is a one-year contract with an option for two additional one-year renewals with a total value of up to $1.6 billion.
backsC32 - S22primarycompany filing2026-04-16beneficial ownership as of March 25, 2026; the fiscal 2026 bonus, PRSU and performance-option design and the 103.3% bonus payout; the CEO's all-performance equity mixbacksC46C47C48
- S23primarycompany filing2026-09-11the Fin (Intercom) acquisition completed on September 10, 2026backsC51
- S24primarycompany filing2026-09-01the Contentful acquisition completed on September 1, 2026backsC51