Adobe
It rents out the tools people use to make documents, pictures and video: Acrobat for PDFs, Photoshop and Premiere for images and film, billed by the month.
Our viewAttractive Low conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↓
Double-digit revenue and recurring revenue, but the headline growth rate holds this year only because an acquisition replaced growth the company gave away.
Business quality3/4 ↓
Real switching cost and pricing it still sets, but the entrants are shipping now and the format underneath Acrobat is an open standard.
Financial position4/4 →
Net debt of about $1.0B against more than $10B of yearly operating cash, no covenants on the notes, and no outside money needed.
Execution record2/4 ↓
Eight straight earnings beats, but the recurring revenue target was held constant by an acquisition and the segment split that would show why was removed.
Per share capture4/4 →
Share count down 13.1% in three years, buybacks far exceeding stock pay, and both acquisitions paid in cash rather than in shares.
Potential2/4 →
The professional seat pond is already full, so the upside needs hundreds of millions of free users to start paying, and none has signed.
Risk profile3/4 ↓
No customer concentration and revenue spread across three regions, but neither the chief executive's nor the finance chief's job is permanently filled.
Valuation4/4 ↑
The price implies about zero growth for ever in cash after stock pay, against 10.5% revenue growth in fiscal 2025.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Every figure is filed or measured outside the company, but the claim the case turns on is management's own account of its own decision.
The Verdict
We rate Adobe attractive. It rents the software much of the world uses to make documents, images and video, almost all of it by subscription, and it is still growing, so the business is solid. The price assumes that growth has stopped for good, so it is cheap: a buyer pays for today's business and gets the growth close to free. The view hinges on growth holding, above all on the price rise Adobe put off arriving; signed future revenue growing slower than sales is the warning. Conviction is low because management will not say when that price rise comes.
The long caseBusinesses are moving work into AI tools, which threatens where tasks begin; Adobe wins if people still finish their documents, images and videos in its apps.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Subscriptions were $6,416M of $6,618M of revenue in Q2 2026, 97% of the total; product licences and services were the other 3%.
C48estimatehigh confidence
Revenue grew 12.9% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 to $6.76B, and 12% in constant currency; the raised full-year target implies the fourth quarter grows about 11%.
against this
- The dollar has weakened through the year, and guidance struck in June may hold currency flat where the first half received a $169M net benefit; a further move would flatter the second half.
- Management describes the second half as skewed toward the fourth quarter for enterprise seasonality, so the shape within the half is not even.
C25estimatemedium confidence
After about $2.07B of stock pay, trailing cash profit is about $8.52B against a company value of about $94.4B: a 9.0% yearly return, which on a 9% required return implies growth of about zero for ever.
sourceAdobe Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 28 August 2026primaryADBE research pack, refreshed 2026-09-24 (2026-09-23 close)secondary
against this
- Cost of subscription revenue rose 16% in Q2 2026, driven by hosting and inference for artificial intelligence, so the cash figure may not hold as free products scale.
- Free cash flow benefits from customers paying in advance; deferred revenue fell $223M within Q2 2026, and a stalling book would take that support away.
- The required return is an assumption, not a fact: at 8% the implied growth is about -0.9% and at 10% about 0.9%.
- 2026-09-24editedRe-struck on the Q3 10-Q and the 2026-09-23 close: the price fell 12.6% since the thesis while trailing cash rose.
C49facthigh confidence
Fiscal 2025 was a normal year: revenue up 10.5%, operating margin 36.6%, recurring revenue exiting at $25.20B up 11.5%, and $10.03B of cash from operations.
C10facthigh confidence
Fiscal 2026 revenue guidance is $26.576B to $26.626B, raised at the third-quarter print from $26.50B to $26.60B.
C09facthigh confidence
Remaining performance obligations were $22.16B exiting Q3 FY2026, up 8.4% from $20.44B a year earlier, against revenue growth of 12.9% - the first time in this thesis's window that the contracted book grew slower than revenue, and on an analyst's uncontested reading the first single-digit growth since early fiscal 2023. 67% is expected to become revenue within twelve months, the same share as a year earlier. Sequentially the book fell $0.11B, from $22.27B at 29 May 2026; the same step a year earlier was a rise of $0.75B, from $19.69B to $20.44B.
sourceAdobe Reports Record Q3 Results - Q3 FY2026 results release,…primaryAdobe Q3 FY2025 results release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 - the…primary
against this
- Management's account is seasonal and partly fair. Steven Day said both measures 'step up in our fourth quarter, and then remain fairly flat over the next 3 quarters. And this year is no different to prior years in that shape.' A fall of 0.5% is a reasonable description of flat. What the filings do not support is the comparison to prior years on this particular step: last year's Q2-to-Q3 move was a rise of 3.8%, not a flat quarter.
- The deceleration is also partly the strategy working as described rather than failing. Day attributed it to 'our focus to accelerate new user acquisition through the freemium business model', and free users sign no contract, so a book of contracted revenue is exactly where that choice shows up first. The acquired Semrush book sits inside the FY2026 figure and flatters it, which makes the underlying deceleration larger rather than smaller.
C07management claimmedium confidence
Management says the unchanged target reflects both the acquired book and a decision to defer planned Creative Cloud price increases and push free products instead - and on 10 September 2026, asked directly how much of the headwind came from each and when the deferred pricing resumes, it answered neither. Shantanu Narayen said instead that he was 'actually really happy that we did not focus on the pricing actions because that while it may have provided some short term relief, would not be as critical as continuing to drive new user adoption.'
sourceAdobe Q2 fiscal 2026 results release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryAdobe Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryAdobe Q3 FY2026 earnings call, question section - call held…primary
against this
- A company losing pricing power would describe it the same way, and the framing is unfalsifiable until the deferred increase is either taken or abandoned.
- The chief executive announced his departure three months earlier and the chief financial officer left four days after the call, so neither of the people describing a payoff in 2027 will be accountable for it.
- Sales and marketing spending rose 16% in the same quarter on advertising, which is what a company defending distribution does as well as what one expanding it does.
C33management claimmedium confidence
Adobe had Creative Cloud price increases scheduled for the second half of fiscal 2026 and chose to defer them, putting about half of a roughly $500M recurring revenue reduction on that decision alone.
sourceAdobe Q2 fiscal 2026 results release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryAdobe Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- Deferring a price rise is equally consistent with not being able to take one, and Adobe published no evidence that the increase remains available.
- The company's own risk factors name customer price sensitivity and limited barriers to entry as characteristics of its markets.
The company
Adobe sells three things on one bill. Acrobat makes, edits and signs PDF documents. Creative Cloud is the set of apps professionals use to edit photos, draw and cut video. A set of marketing systems holds a company's brand images and customer data.
The PDF format has been a free public standard since 2008, so buyers pay for the tools, not the format, and Adobe keeps 89.2 cents of each sales dollar after the cost of delivering them.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Subscriptions were $6,416M of $6,618M of revenue in Q2 2026, 97% of the total; product licences and services were the other 3%.
C34facthigh confidence
The document format underneath Acrobat is not Adobe's property: PDF was published as the international standard ISO 32000-1 in July 2008.
C38facthigh confidence
Adobe kept 89.2 cents of every revenue dollar after the cost of delivering the service in Q2 2026, against 89.1 cents a year earlier.
How it makes money
It rents seats. A customer pays by the month, $69.99 for the main professional plan, and loses the software when the payments stop. Making images with its AI draws down credits, so heavy users pay more. What keeps customers renewing is the cost of leaving.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Subscriptions were $6,416M of $6,618M of revenue in Q2 2026, 97% of the total; product licences and services were the other 3%.
C40estimatemedium confidence
Scaling that share of the United States labour force to the world gives about 18.0M professional design and media workers, worth about $15.1B a year at Adobe's $839.88 list price.
derived846,900 jobs over a United States labour force of 174.2M is 0.486%; applied to a world labour force of 3.697bn that is 18.0M seats, multiplied by twelve months at the $69.99 monthly list price Adobe publishes for its main professional plan
against this
- Design employment is almost certainly a smaller share of the labour force outside rich countries, so this over-counts the global base and makes the pond look larger than it is.
- List price is above realised price - Adobe discounts for education, teams and cheaper single-app plans - so the dollar figure is a ceiling.
- Enterprises buy more seats than the occupational count implies, since people outside these five job titles are given licences.
C55management claimlow confidence
Adobe ships its creative agent into Claude and ChatGPT and says Copilot and Gemini are next, monetising it through the same credit consumption as its own products.
against this
- Meeting the user inside somebody else's interface hands the customer relationship to the interface owner, who is also building the competing tool.
- Adobe published no revenue, usage or contract terms for these placements, so their scale is unknown.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (Q3 FY2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Creative and Marketing Professionals subscriptions | 68.8% | Creative Cloud apps such as Photoshop, Premiere and Illustrator, plus the marketing software and Semrush, rented by seat or by contract. |
| Business Professionals and Consumers subscriptions | 28.2% | Acrobat and Adobe Express subscriptions for document work and quick design, sold monthly or yearly to individuals and businesses. |
| Product, services and other subscriptions | 3.0% | Perpetual licences, consulting, training and support, mostly attached to the marketing software, plus a small residual subscription line. |
Who runs it
Shantanu Narayen has run Adobe since 2007 and hands the job to Anil Chakravarthy on 1 December 2026, staying on as executive chair. Chakravarthy ran the marketing software, not Creative Cloud, and the finance chief's seat is held by a stand-in. Directors and officers together own a tiny slice of the company. The yearly bonus rides on sales and adjusted earnings per share; the shares on the stock against other companies' and on recurring sales growth with acquisitions stripped out.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C63facthigh confidence
Shantanu Narayen joined Adobe in 1998, has been chief executive since December 2007 and chair since January 2017. Anil Chakravarthy joined in January 2020 and ran the Digital Experience business from December 2021 to January 2026, whose revenue grew 9% to $5.86B in fiscal 2025; he now runs Customer Experience Orchestration. Steven Day signed the August 2026 10-Q as interim chief financial officer; Daniel Durn signed the June 2026 10-Q as chief financial officer.
C31facthigh confidence
One seat is filled, one is still interim, and a third is emptying. On 2 September 2026 the board appointed Anil Chakravarthy, then President of the Customer Experience Orchestration business, as President and Chief Executive Officer effective 1 December 2026, with Shantanu Narayen becoming Executive Chair after 29 years. The chief financial officer's seat is still held on an interim basis by Steven Day. And on the same day, David Wadhwani notified the company of his decision to step down as President, Creativity and Productivity Business, effective 27 September 2026, remaining a senior adviser through a transition.
sourceAdobe Reports Record Q3 Results - Q3 FY2026 results release,…primaryAdobe Inc. Form 8-K, Item 5.02 - appointment of Anil…primary
against this
- The succession is orderly and internal rather than a rupture: a named successor five years in the business, a founder-era chief executive staying as Executive Chair, and Chakravarthy already fielding the strategy questions on the Q3 call. Adobe has done long, planned handovers before.
- What is not routine is the combination. The claim this thesis rests on is that Creative Cloud pricing is taken again in fiscal 2027. The executive who ran that business leaves before fiscal 2027 begins, the incoming chief executive's career is on the customer-experience side, and the finance seat that would model the decision is unfilled. Three of the people who would own that call change in ninety days.
C60facthigh confidence
At 17 February 2026 the 18 directors and current executive officers together beneficially owned 803,767 shares, about 0.2% of the 407,636,918 outstanding; Shantanu Narayen held 438,975, about 0.1%, the largest insider holding. The Vanguard Group (10.17%) and BlackRock (9.31%) were the only holders above 5%. Adobe has one share class and none of the insiders' shares is pledged.
C61facthigh confidence
The fiscal 2025 annual cash bonus paid only if Adobe reached at least 95% of both its revenue and its non-GAAP diluted earnings-per-share targets; it paid 104% of target after the committee cut a 110% financial result by 6 points. Performance shares are 70% of the chief executive's equity; the 2025 grant vests half on three-year total return against an index and half on net new sales, and the 2023 grant's return half paid 45%. The chief executive's target pay is about 70% performance-based.
C56facthigh confidence
Half of executive performance shares vest on recurring revenue growth, and that calculation is adjusted to exclude material acquisitions and currency movements.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
Leaving is expensive, and the employer pays, not the person clicking. A studio's archive of layered files will not open faithfully elsewhere, its staff are trained on these apps, and its colour settings are tuned to print correctly.
The sign the lock holds is price. Adobe had Creative Cloud price rises scheduled for the second half of this year and chose when to take them.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C34facthigh confidence
The document format underneath Acrobat is not Adobe's property: PDF was published as the international standard ISO 32000-1 in July 2008.
C33management claimmedium confidence
Adobe had Creative Cloud price increases scheduled for the second half of fiscal 2026 and chose to defer them, putting about half of a roughly $500M recurring revenue reduction on that decision alone.
sourceAdobe Q2 fiscal 2026 results release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryAdobe Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- Deferring a price rise is equally consistent with not being able to take one, and Adobe published no evidence that the increase remains available.
- The company's own risk factors name customer price sensitivity and limited barriers to entry as characteristics of its markets.
C05facthigh confidence
Adobe's fiscal 2026 ending recurring revenue growth target is 10.2%, held again at the third-quarter print - the same figure it published on 10 December 2025, before Semrush was owned, and now with three quarters reported against it.
The threat
Chat tools now do the easy end of image work. Google's Gemini and OpenAI's image model both edit an existing picture from a typed request, no Photoshop needed. Figma grew 48% to $370.1M in the quarter to June 2026, taking interface design. None of them opens a layered archive intact.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C35facthigh confidence
Google sells image generation and editing through the Gemini interface, documented as creating, editing and iterating on visuals conversationally, across four generally available models.
C36facthigh confidence
OpenAI sells image generation and editing through its interface, including multi-turn high-fidelity editing of an existing image, on a model it calls gpt-image-2.
C37facthigh confidence
Figma, the listed design-software challenger, made $370.1M of revenue in the quarter to 30 June 2026, up 48%, at an official operating margin of minus 32%, with cost of revenue up 117% on hosting for artificial intelligence.
The rivals: GOOGL, FIG, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | Google Gemini image generationPriced against it: Different product | On sale | Different product |
| Private | OpenAI GPT Image (gpt-image-2)Priced against it: Private | On sale | Private |
| FIG | FigmaPriced against it: Different product | On sale | Different product |
How big it could get
How big this could get
America employs 846,900 people in five design and media jobs. Scaled to the world, that is about 18 million workers, worth about $15.1B a year at Adobe's list price.
Adobe already takes $16.30B a year from creative and marketing customers, more than that whole pool, though the figure includes marketing software. So growth has to come from people who have never paid, and nobody counts how many would.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C39facthigh confidence
United States employment in five design and media occupations was 846,900 in 2024, and the statistical agency projects each to grow between 2% and 7% over the decade to 2034.
sourceU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook…primaryU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook…primaryU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook…primaryU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook…primaryU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook…primary
C40estimatemedium confidence
Scaling that share of the United States labour force to the world gives about 18.0M professional design and media workers, worth about $15.1B a year at Adobe's $839.88 list price.
derived846,900 jobs over a United States labour force of 174.2M is 0.486%; applied to a world labour force of 3.697bn that is 18.0M seats, multiplied by twelve months at the $69.99 monthly list price Adobe publishes for its main professional plan
against this
- Design employment is almost certainly a smaller share of the labour force outside rich countries, so this over-counts the global base and makes the pond look larger than it is.
- List price is above realised price - Adobe discounts for education, teams and cheaper single-app plans - so the dollar figure is a ceiling.
- Enterprises buy more seats than the occupational count implies, since people outside these five job titles are given licences.
C41facthigh confidence
Adobe's fiscal 2025 subscription revenue from Creative and Marketing Professionals was $16.30B, up 11%, and that customer group also contains all of its enterprise marketing software.
Who has signed
Customers had signed for $22.16B of future subscription revenue at the end of August, two-thirds of it due within a year. Only about 4% cannot be cancelled or refunded; the rest is subscriptions a customer can decline to renew.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C09facthigh confidence
Remaining performance obligations were $22.16B exiting Q3 FY2026, up 8.4% from $20.44B a year earlier, against revenue growth of 12.9% - the first time in this thesis's window that the contracted book grew slower than revenue, and on an analyst's uncontested reading the first single-digit growth since early fiscal 2023. 67% is expected to become revenue within twelve months, the same share as a year earlier. Sequentially the book fell $0.11B, from $22.27B at 29 May 2026; the same step a year earlier was a rise of $0.75B, from $19.69B to $20.44B.
sourceAdobe Reports Record Q3 Results - Q3 FY2026 results release,…primaryAdobe Q3 FY2025 results release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 - the…primary
against this
- Management's account is seasonal and partly fair. Steven Day said both measures 'step up in our fourth quarter, and then remain fairly flat over the next 3 quarters. And this year is no different to prior years in that shape.' A fall of 0.5% is a reasonable description of flat. What the filings do not support is the comparison to prior years on this particular step: last year's Q2-to-Q3 move was a rise of 3.8%, not a flat quarter.
- The deceleration is also partly the strategy working as described rather than failing. Day attributed it to 'our focus to accelerate new user acquisition through the freemium business model', and free users sign no contract, so a book of contracted revenue is exactly where that choice shows up first. The acquired Semrush book sits inside the FY2026 figure and flatters it, which makes the underlying deceleration larger rather than smaller.
C43facthigh confidence
About 4% of remaining performance obligations relates to non-cancellable and non-refundable committed funds; the rest is a subscription book customers can decline to renew.
The results
The numbers
Is it growing?Steady
Sales grew 12% over the twelve months to Aug 2026, about the same pace as the 11% in the year to Nov 2025.
Is it profitable?Strong
Operating margin is 36%, about where it was (34%) in the year to Dec 2023.
Does growth pay off?Flat
Running costs take 54¢ of each sales dollar, up from 51¢ in the year to Dec 2021.
Does it earn good returns?Strong
Each dollar put into the business earns 40% a year after tax, up from 27% in the year to Dec 2021.
Is it making cash?Strong
It turned 41% of sales into free cash, $10.6B over the last twelve months.
Is the balance sheet safe?Light debt
It owes $724M more than the cash it holds, about 0.1 years of the cash its operations bring in.
Are shares being diluted?Shrinking
The share count fell 18% in 4.7 years, and pay in shares costs 8.0% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in November.
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2023 | Nov 2024 | Nov 2025 | 12 mo to Aug 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $15.8B | $17.6B | $19.4B | $21.5B | $23.8B | $26.0B |
| Sales growth | +23% | +12% | +10% | +11% | +11% | +12% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Gross margin | 88% | 88% | 88% | 89% | 89% | 89% |
| Operating margin | 37% | 35% | 34% | 31% | 37% | 36% |
| Net margin | 31% | 27% | 28% | 26% | 30% | 28% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Sales and marketing | 27% | 28% | 28% | 27% | 27% | 28% |
| General and admin | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% |
| Pay in shares | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% |
| Capital spending | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | $7.23B | $7.84B | $7.30B | $8.06B | $10.0B | $10.8B |
| Free cash flow | $6.88B | $7.40B | $6.94B | $7.87B | $9.85B | $10.6B |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $5.80B | $6.10B | $7.84B | $7.89B | $6.59B | $5.64B |
| Debt | $4.12B | $4.13B | $3.63B | $4.13B | $6.21B | $6.36B |
| Net cash | $1.68B | $1.97B | $4.21B | $3.76B | $385M | −$724M |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Return on capital | 27% | 26% | 28% | 28% | 39% | 40% |
| Shares (diluted) | 481M | 471M | 459M | 450M | 427M | 396M |
What growth costs
Growing has not made Adobe more profitable lately. Each sales dollar carries about the same research, selling and admin cost as three years ago, and stock pay has eased only a little, so profit grows in step with sales rather than faster. This year a legal charge and a write-off pushed admin costs up.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C59facthigh confidence
Per dollar of revenue, research and development took 17.9, 18.3 and 18.1 cents in fiscal 2023 to 2025 and 18.2 cents in the nine months to 28 August 2026; sales and marketing 27.6, 26.8, 27.3 and 27.4; general and administrative 7.3, 7.1, 6.6 and 7.6; stock pay 8.9, 8.5 and 8.2 cents in fiscal 2023 to 2025. Nine-month operating margin was 35.4% against 36.7% a year earlier. Research and development here is the income-statement line ($4,294M in fiscal 2025); the numbers card leaves it blank because Adobe does not use the ResearchAndDevelopmentExpense tag.
C20facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 operating income rose 6.1% on revenue up 12.7%: total operating expenses rose 17%, sales and marketing 16% on advertising, and general and administrative 45%.
C21facthigh confidence
The general and administrative rise includes a $70M non-cash goodwill write-off on the Publishing and Advertising reporting unit, equal to $0.17 a share, and a legal-settlement charge.
The last report (10 Sep)
Quarter ended August 2026, filed figures.
13%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
2.1%
Growth from the quarter before
against 3.4% the quarter before that
35¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales
The third quarter of fiscal 2026 was a record. Revenue grew 12.9% to $6.76B, both customer groups sped up by a point, and the full-year revenue and earnings targets went up.
The trouble was underneath. Signed future revenue grew 8.4%, slower than revenue, and fell $0.11B from May against a $0.75B rise a year earlier. New recurring revenue added in the quarter, $0.40B, was down 36% to 37% by an analyst's reckoning that management did not challenge.
What it did to the thesisIt backed the case that demand is intact, since both customer groups grew faster than before. It also raised the warning that keeps conviction low: signed future revenue and new recurring revenue slowed, the first sign the market's fear of decline could be right. The fourth quarter decides which.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $6.13 against $6.08 expected; $4.62 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C48estimatehigh confidence
Revenue grew 12.9% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 to $6.76B, and 12% in constant currency; the raised full-year target implies the fourth quarter grows about 11%.
against this
- The dollar has weakened through the year, and guidance struck in June may hold currency flat where the first half received a $169M net benefit; a further move would flatter the second half.
- Management describes the second half as skewed toward the fourth quarter for enterprise seasonality, so the shape within the half is not even.
C03facthigh confidence
In Q3 FY2026 Creative and Marketing Professionals subscription revenue was $4,650M, up 13% and 12% in constant currency, and Business Professionals and Consumers was $1,910M, up 16% and 15% in constant currency. Both accelerated a point from the second quarter's 11% and 15% in constant currency.
C10facthigh confidence
Fiscal 2026 revenue guidance is $26.576B to $26.626B, raised at the third-quarter print from $26.50B to $26.60B.
C11facthigh confidence
Fiscal 2026 official earnings guidance is $18.12 to $18.17 a share, raised from $17.90 to $18.00; the company's own adjusted figure is $24.45 to $24.50.
C09facthigh confidence
Remaining performance obligations were $22.16B exiting Q3 FY2026, up 8.4% from $20.44B a year earlier, against revenue growth of 12.9% - the first time in this thesis's window that the contracted book grew slower than revenue, and on an analyst's uncontested reading the first single-digit growth since early fiscal 2023. 67% is expected to become revenue within twelve months, the same share as a year earlier. Sequentially the book fell $0.11B, from $22.27B at 29 May 2026; the same step a year earlier was a rise of $0.75B, from $19.69B to $20.44B.
sourceAdobe Reports Record Q3 Results - Q3 FY2026 results release,…primaryAdobe Q3 FY2025 results release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 - the…primary
against this
- Management's account is seasonal and partly fair. Steven Day said both measures 'step up in our fourth quarter, and then remain fairly flat over the next 3 quarters. And this year is no different to prior years in that shape.' A fall of 0.5% is a reasonable description of flat. What the filings do not support is the comparison to prior years on this particular step: last year's Q2-to-Q3 move was a rise of 3.8%, not a flat quarter.
- The deceleration is also partly the strategy working as described rather than failing. Day attributed it to 'our focus to accelerate new user acquisition through the freemium business model', and free users sign no contract, so a book of contracted revenue is exactly where that choice shows up first. The acquired Semrush book sits inside the FY2026 figure and flatters it, which makes the underlying deceleration larger rather than smaller.
C04facthigh confidence
Total Adobe recurring revenue exiting Q3 FY2026 was $27.50B, against $27.10B exiting Q2 - $0.40B of net new recurring revenue in the quarter. An analyst put that at down 36% to 37% year over year on the call and management did not dispute the figure, attributing it to routing traffic into the free funnel.
What management did with the money
It bought back shares, heavily. In fiscal 2025 it spent $11.28B on them, more than the $10.03B its operations brought in, and the average share count fell from 459.1 million in fiscal 2023 to 427.0 million in fiscal 2025. That is why earnings per share rise about 7.5% this year while total profit is flat.
Insiders in 2026Q2: 54 purchases and 79 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C16facthigh confidence
Adobe spent $11,281M repurchasing shares in fiscal 2025, more than the $10,033M of cash its operations generated that year.
C14facthigh confidence
The average diluted share count fell from 459.1M in fiscal 2023 to 449.7M in fiscal 2024 and 427.0M in fiscal 2025.
C12estimatehigh confidence
On the guided share count, fiscal 2026 official net income is about $7.16B against $7.13B in fiscal 2025, so total profit is flat while earnings a share rise about 7.5%.
derivedthe midpoint of the $17.90-$18.00 official guidance multiplied by the ~399M diluted share count the same footnote assumes, compared with the $7,130M of fiscal 2025 net income and $16.70 of diluted earnings a share in the FY2025 filing
against this
- Fiscal 2026 official profit carries a $70M goodwill write-off and legal settlement charges that fiscal 2025 did not, so the underlying comparison is better than flat.
- The official tax rate assumption rose about two points between the two guidance tables, which is a below-the-line effect rather than an operating one.
- On the adjusted basis the company reports, profit rises about 8.9% rather than being flat.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Cheap. The price assumes a business that has stopped growing for good. Adobe is still growing; the question is whether that lasts.
Share price
$240.69
close,
Price for each $1 of yearly profit
13.2
its 6-year normal 42.5
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
9.4
its 6-year normal 32.2
The shares have kept falling since this thesis was written in August, even as Adobe raised its targets.
The next test is 9 December, when Adobe reports its fourth quarter and sets targets for fiscal 2027, the first report under its incoming chief executive.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C26facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $240.69 on 23 September 2026, against $265.60 at the 15 September review and $275.30 when this thesis was first struck.
- 2026-09-24editedRestated at the 2026-09-23 close.
C10facthigh confidence
Fiscal 2026 revenue guidance is $26.576B to $26.626B, raised at the third-quarter print from $26.50B to $26.60B.
C11facthigh confidence
Fiscal 2026 official earnings guidance is $18.12 to $18.17 a share, raised from $17.90 to $18.00; the company's own adjusted figure is $24.45 to $24.50.
C31facthigh confidence
One seat is filled, one is still interim, and a third is emptying. On 2 September 2026 the board appointed Anil Chakravarthy, then President of the Customer Experience Orchestration business, as President and Chief Executive Officer effective 1 December 2026, with Shantanu Narayen becoming Executive Chair after 29 years. The chief financial officer's seat is still held on an interim basis by Steven Day. And on the same day, David Wadhwani notified the company of his decision to step down as President, Creativity and Productivity Business, effective 27 September 2026, remaining a senior adviser through a transition.
sourceAdobe Reports Record Q3 Results - Q3 FY2026 results release,…primaryAdobe Inc. Form 8-K, Item 5.02 - appointment of Anil…primary
against this
- The succession is orderly and internal rather than a rupture: a named successor five years in the business, a founder-era chief executive staying as Executive Chair, and Chakravarthy already fielding the strategy questions on the Q3 call. Adobe has done long, planned handovers before.
- What is not routine is the combination. The claim this thesis rests on is that Creative Cloud pricing is taken again in fiscal 2027. The executive who ran that business leaves before fiscal 2027 begins, the incoming chief executive's career is on the customer-experience side, and the finance seat that would model the decision is unfilled. Three of the people who would own that call change in ninety days.
How we read the multiple
Adobe grew sales 10.5% in fiscal 2025, a normal year, yet costs about 13 times last year's profit, against about 42 times over six years.
The 9% return is our assumption, not a filed fact, and the verdict hangs on it. For a buyer wanting 9% a year:
- The whole company, debt included, costs $94.4B.
- It produces about $8.52B a year of spare cash after paying staff in stock.
- That is 9% already, so the price works even if the cash never grows. Any growth makes it too low.
Against its own history. Far cheaper than its own normal on every measure. The business has slowed, but by nothing like as much as the price has fallen.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C25estimatemedium confidence
After about $2.07B of stock pay, trailing cash profit is about $8.52B against a company value of about $94.4B: a 9.0% yearly return, which on a 9% required return implies growth of about zero for ever.
sourceAdobe Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 28 August 2026primaryADBE research pack, refreshed 2026-09-24 (2026-09-23 close)secondary
against this
- Cost of subscription revenue rose 16% in Q2 2026, driven by hosting and inference for artificial intelligence, so the cash figure may not hold as free products scale.
- Free cash flow benefits from customers paying in advance; deferred revenue fell $223M within Q2 2026, and a stalling book would take that support away.
- The required return is an assumption, not a fact: at 8% the implied growth is about -0.9% and at 10% about 0.9%.
- 2026-09-24editedRe-struck on the Q3 10-Q and the 2026-09-23 close: the price fell 12.6% since the thesis while trailing cash rose.
C49facthigh confidence
Fiscal 2025 was a normal year: revenue up 10.5%, operating margin 36.6%, recurring revenue exiting at $25.20B up 11.5%, and $10.03B of cash from operations.
C51estimatemedium confidence
At $240.69 the company is valued at 12.9 times the $7.28B it earned in the four quarters to 28 August 2026, against a six-year median of about 42 times on the pack's own ratio history.
sourceAdobe Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 28 August 2026primaryADBE research pack, refreshed 2026-09-24 (2026-09-23 close)secondary
against this
- A six-year median spans the period when the market paid growth multiples for every large software company, so the comparison measures a change in what buyers pay as much as a change in this business.
- Trailing profit carries the $70M write-off and the settlement charges, so the trailing multiple is slightly flattering the price.
- 2026-09-24editedRe-struck at the 2026-09-23 close on four filed quarters to 28 August 2026.
Priced against its rivals
None of the listed rivals above sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.
Also checked and set aside: Salesforce (a substitute, not the same product); DocuSign (a substitute, not the same product).
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Canva, Google (Gemini image generation), OpenAI.
Where we disagree with the market
The market believes
Artificial intelligence is ending Adobe's franchise: growth slows for good as chat tools and cheaper rivals replace its apps.
We believe
So far the slowdown is a pricing choice, not lost demand: both customer groups still grew faster than 10% last quarter.
The doubt is visible: 6 of 63 analysts say sell and short selling rose 56% between February and July.
What the market may be missing sits in two releases six months apart. Adobe held its 10.2% growth target after buying 1.87 points of it, and says the missing growth is a price rise it chose not to take. The evidence against us is growing: signed future revenue grew slower than revenue last quarter.
What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
30%
of 40, 1 Sep
Four months earlier
40%
of 40, 1 May
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C28factmedium confidence
The 63 analysts in the pack's panel split 30 buy, 27 hold and 6 sell, which for a company of this size is an unusually large sell count.
C29facthigh confidence
Short interest rose from 12.4M shares at 13 February 2026 to 19.3M at 31 July 2026, up 56%, and about 4.8% of the shares in issue.
C05facthigh confidence
Adobe's fiscal 2026 ending recurring revenue growth target is 10.2%, held again at the third-quarter print - the same figure it published on 10 December 2025, before Semrush was owned, and now with three quarters reported against it.
C06estimatehigh confidence
The $480M of acquired recurring revenue is 1.87% of the $25.66B book Adobe opened fiscal 2026 with, so roughly two points of the 10.2% target was bought.
derived$480M from the Q2 2026 release divided by the $25.66B revalued opening book stated in the FY2025 release; the acquisition closed on 28 April 2026 so the exit figure carries a partial year of it
against this
- Semrush's own book will have grown between April and November, so the exit contribution is probably above $480M and the organic figure below the one computed here.
- Guidance issued in December is normally conservative, so part of the room the acquisition filled may have been genuine outperformance rather than a cut.
C07management claimmedium confidence
Management says the unchanged target reflects both the acquired book and a decision to defer planned Creative Cloud price increases and push free products instead - and on 10 September 2026, asked directly how much of the headwind came from each and when the deferred pricing resumes, it answered neither. Shantanu Narayen said instead that he was 'actually really happy that we did not focus on the pricing actions because that while it may have provided some short term relief, would not be as critical as continuing to drive new user adoption.'
sourceAdobe Q2 fiscal 2026 results release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryAdobe Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryAdobe Q3 FY2026 earnings call, question section - call held…primary
against this
- A company losing pricing power would describe it the same way, and the framing is unfalsifiable until the deferred increase is either taken or abandoned.
- The chief executive announced his departure three months earlier and the chief financial officer left four days after the call, so neither of the people describing a payoff in 2027 will be accountable for it.
- Sales and marketing spending rose 16% in the same quarter on advertising, which is what a company defending distribution does as well as what one expanding it does.
C33management claimmedium confidence
Adobe had Creative Cloud price increases scheduled for the second half of fiscal 2026 and chose to defer them, putting about half of a roughly $500M recurring revenue reduction on that decision alone.
sourceAdobe Q2 fiscal 2026 results release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryAdobe Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- Deferring a price rise is equally consistent with not being able to take one, and Adobe published no evidence that the increase remains available.
- The company's own risk factors name customer price sensitivity and limited barriers to entry as characteristics of its markets.
C03facthigh confidence
In Q3 FY2026 Creative and Marketing Professionals subscription revenue was $4,650M, up 13% and 12% in constant currency, and Business Professionals and Consumers was $1,910M, up 16% and 15% in constant currency. Both accelerated a point from the second quarter's 11% and 15% in constant currency.
C09facthigh confidence
Remaining performance obligations were $22.16B exiting Q3 FY2026, up 8.4% from $20.44B a year earlier, against revenue growth of 12.9% - the first time in this thesis's window that the contracted book grew slower than revenue, and on an analyst's uncontested reading the first single-digit growth since early fiscal 2023. 67% is expected to become revenue within twelve months, the same share as a year earlier. Sequentially the book fell $0.11B, from $22.27B at 29 May 2026; the same step a year earlier was a rise of $0.75B, from $19.69B to $20.44B.
sourceAdobe Reports Record Q3 Results - Q3 FY2026 results release,…primaryAdobe Q3 FY2025 results release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 - the…primary
against this
- Management's account is seasonal and partly fair. Steven Day said both measures 'step up in our fourth quarter, and then remain fairly flat over the next 3 quarters. And this year is no different to prior years in that shape.' A fall of 0.5% is a reasonable description of flat. What the filings do not support is the comparison to prior years on this particular step: last year's Q2-to-Q3 move was a rise of 3.8%, not a flat quarter.
- The deceleration is also partly the strategy working as described rather than failing. Day attributed it to 'our focus to accelerate new user acquisition through the freemium business model', and free users sign no contract, so a book of contracted revenue is exactly where that choice shows up first. The acquired Semrush book sits inside the FY2026 figure and flatters it, which makes the underlying deceleration larger rather than smaller.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- Signed revenue slowing. Signed future revenue grew 8.4% last quarter against revenue's 12.9%; a second such quarter would mean customers leaving, not pausing.
- A price rise with no date. Asked on 10 September when the put-off price rise returns, management did not answer, and the chief executive said not taking it was right.
- Leaders changing seats. A new chief executive starts on 1 December, the finance chief is interim, and the head of the creative business leaves on 27 September.
- The deciding number is hidden. Adobe stopped reporting the creative business's recurring revenue separately in 2026, so its own accounts cannot settle the argument.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C09facthigh confidence
Remaining performance obligations were $22.16B exiting Q3 FY2026, up 8.4% from $20.44B a year earlier, against revenue growth of 12.9% - the first time in this thesis's window that the contracted book grew slower than revenue, and on an analyst's uncontested reading the first single-digit growth since early fiscal 2023. 67% is expected to become revenue within twelve months, the same share as a year earlier. Sequentially the book fell $0.11B, from $22.27B at 29 May 2026; the same step a year earlier was a rise of $0.75B, from $19.69B to $20.44B.
sourceAdobe Reports Record Q3 Results - Q3 FY2026 results release,…primaryAdobe Q3 FY2025 results release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 - the…primary
against this
- Management's account is seasonal and partly fair. Steven Day said both measures 'step up in our fourth quarter, and then remain fairly flat over the next 3 quarters. And this year is no different to prior years in that shape.' A fall of 0.5% is a reasonable description of flat. What the filings do not support is the comparison to prior years on this particular step: last year's Q2-to-Q3 move was a rise of 3.8%, not a flat quarter.
- The deceleration is also partly the strategy working as described rather than failing. Day attributed it to 'our focus to accelerate new user acquisition through the freemium business model', and free users sign no contract, so a book of contracted revenue is exactly where that choice shows up first. The acquired Semrush book sits inside the FY2026 figure and flatters it, which makes the underlying deceleration larger rather than smaller.
C07management claimmedium confidence
Management says the unchanged target reflects both the acquired book and a decision to defer planned Creative Cloud price increases and push free products instead - and on 10 September 2026, asked directly how much of the headwind came from each and when the deferred pricing resumes, it answered neither. Shantanu Narayen said instead that he was 'actually really happy that we did not focus on the pricing actions because that while it may have provided some short term relief, would not be as critical as continuing to drive new user adoption.'
sourceAdobe Q2 fiscal 2026 results release (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)primaryAdobe Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryAdobe Q3 FY2026 earnings call, question section - call held…primary
against this
- A company losing pricing power would describe it the same way, and the framing is unfalsifiable until the deferred increase is either taken or abandoned.
- The chief executive announced his departure three months earlier and the chief financial officer left four days after the call, so neither of the people describing a payoff in 2027 will be accountable for it.
- Sales and marketing spending rose 16% in the same quarter on advertising, which is what a company defending distribution does as well as what one expanding it does.
C31facthigh confidence
One seat is filled, one is still interim, and a third is emptying. On 2 September 2026 the board appointed Anil Chakravarthy, then President of the Customer Experience Orchestration business, as President and Chief Executive Officer effective 1 December 2026, with Shantanu Narayen becoming Executive Chair after 29 years. The chief financial officer's seat is still held on an interim basis by Steven Day. And on the same day, David Wadhwani notified the company of his decision to step down as President, Creativity and Productivity Business, effective 27 September 2026, remaining a senior adviser through a transition.
sourceAdobe Reports Record Q3 Results - Q3 FY2026 results release,…primaryAdobe Inc. Form 8-K, Item 5.02 - appointment of Anil…primary
against this
- The succession is orderly and internal rather than a rupture: a named successor five years in the business, a founder-era chief executive staying as Executive Chair, and Chakravarthy already fielding the strategy questions on the Q3 call. Adobe has done long, planned handovers before.
- What is not routine is the combination. The claim this thesis rests on is that Creative Cloud pricing is taken again in fiscal 2027. The executive who ran that business leaves before fiscal 2027 begins, the incoming chief executive's career is on the customer-experience side, and the finance seat that would model the decision is unfilled. Three of the people who would own that call change in ninety days.
C32facthigh confidence
From Q1 2026 Adobe combined three reportable segments into one and recast prior periods; Digital Media recurring revenue, disclosed separately through fiscal 2025, is no longer published.
What we still do not know
- How big the AI business is. Management says its recurring revenue grew more than 150% but has never said from what base.
- How many of the free users will ever pay. Adobe counts a billion monthly users; nothing measures the share that converts.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C45management claimlow confidence
Management says recurring revenue from products it classes as artificial-intelligence-first grew more than 150% year over year in Q3 FY2026. No base is disclosed against which to size it, which is the same limitation this figure carried a quarter ago.
against this
- The category is Adobe's own and it publishes no definition of what is in it, so the figure cannot be reconciled to anything filed.
- At about 1.8% of recurring revenue it is far too small to offset the roughly $500M being given up elsewhere in the same year.
C46management claimlow confidence
Management says Adobe crossed one billion monthly active users across its creativity and productivity products, and led the third-quarter release with that milestone rather than with revenue.
against this
- Adobe publishes no definition of a monthly active user and no filing carries the figure, so neither the level nor the growth can be checked.
- A free user count rising while recurring revenue growth falls is the exact pattern that would appear whether the trade is working or whether paying customers are being replaced by free ones.
What would change our view
- Attractive→NeutralThe market stops pricing decline
It needs:
- ○The company's value rises to about 14 times its yearly cash after stock pay, where the price no longer assumes the business shrinks.about ≈$310.64 today, 29% above the last close
- Attractive→NeutralThe delivered growth falls to what the price assumes
It needs any of:
- ○Adobe promises recurring revenue growth below 8% for fiscal 2027, even counting companies it bought.checked at the next results, due by 9 Dec
- ○Cash after stock pay falls below $7B across four quarters in a row.checked at the next results, due by 9 Dec
We would also be wrong if
- Signed future revenue grows slower than revenue for a second quarter running.
- Creative and marketing subscriptions grow below 8%, leaving out currency swings and acquisitions.
- The put-off Creative Cloud price rise is dropped rather than taken in fiscal 2027.
What is coming
- 1 December 2026 Anil Chakravarthy becomes president and chief executive: Whether the first chief executive change in eighteen years arrives with a permanent finance chief and a named head for Creative Cloud, whose pricing the case awaits.
Every dated event ahead
- 1 December 2026 Anil Chakravarthy becomes president and chief executive: Whether the first chief executive change in eighteen years arrives with a permanent finance chief and a named head for Creative Cloud, whose pricing the case awaits.
- 9 December 2026 Q4 FY2026 results and fiscal 2027 targets: Whether remaining performance obligations grow faster than revenue again, and whether fiscal 2027 recurring revenue growth is guided at 9% or better.
- February 2027 2027 proxy statement: The new chief executive's pay, the fiscal 2026 bonus and performance-share payouts, and whether the recurring revenue goal still strips out what was bought.
- March 2027 Q1 FY2027 results: Whether the deferred Creative Cloud price increases are taken under the new chief executive or deferred again.
Since we wrote this
Written
23 Aug
Price the thesis read
$240.69
23 Sep
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictThe owner asked to pilot the long case on five theses without a bet before deciding on the rest.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
- 26 SepThesis reviewHeader caught up with the September results. View heldThe top of the page still said signed future revenue grew 13%. It grew 8.4% in the September quarter, slower than revenue, which is why conviction was already Low.
- 24 SepEarningsFiled cash figures: the price now assumes no growth. View heldThe quarterly filing lifted yearly cash after stock pay to about $8.52B while the shares fell, so the growth the price assumes dropped from about 1.5% a year to about zero.
- 15 SepThesis reviewOpen questions routed; September results still unread. View heldCanva's accounts turned out to be filed in Australia. The larger finding: Adobe had reported on 10 September, and this thesis had not yet read the results.
- 15 SepEarningsConviction cut from Medium to LowSigned future revenue grew slower than revenue for the first time, management would not say when the price rise returns, and the executive who would take it is leaving.
- 23 AugThesis writtenAttractive, medium convictionThe recurring revenue Adobe gave up in June looked like a pricing choice rather than lost demand, and the price already assumed a decline that had not started.
Also checked 4 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 36
Where this came from
Sources - 36
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-01-15Item 1 business and competition, the segment note and the fiscal-2026 segment change, FY2025 statements, share counts, stock compensation, buyback spend, remaining performance obligations and deferred revenue, and the absence of any customer concentration disclosurebacksC13C14C16C19C32C43C49C53C54C59C62C63
- S02primarycompany filing2026-06-15the single-segment recast, customer-group subscription revenue, the expense bridge, the tax discussion, the Semrush purchase accounting and goodwill impairment, the balance sheet, buyback authorities and the geographic splitbacksC01C02C17C18C19C20C21C23C32C38C50C52C63
- S03primarycompany release2026-06-11constant-currency growth, the raised fiscal-2026 targets, the unchanged 10.2% recurring-revenue growth target, the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation and the chief financial officer's departurebacksC01C02C07C20C21C23C33C38C50
- S04primarytranscript2026-06-11management's account of the deferred price increase and the freemium shift, the monthly-active-user and Firefly figures that appear in no filing, and six analyst questions on the pivot, one of which quantified the organic recurring-revenue reduction
In terms of the impact on ARR, you can think of roughly half the impact as a result of deferring those creative price line optimizations and the other half related to going full steam on the freemium experience.
backsC07C08C33C55 - S05primarycompany release2025-12-10the original fiscal-2026 targets issued before Semrush, the revalued opening recurring-revenue book, the fiscal-2025 segment and customer-group figures and the disclosure changes announced for fiscal 2026backsC13C32C41C49
- S06primarycompany release2026-03-12Q1 constant-currency growth by customer group and the reaffirmation of the December fiscal-2026 targetsread, but no claim rests on it
- S07primarycompany release2026-03-12the chief executive transition, the special committee and its remitbacksC30
- S08primarycompany filing2026-07-17that severance protections sunset twelve months after the new chief executive commences employment, which dates the vacancy as still open on 14 July 2026read, but no claim rests on it
- S09secondaryvendor data2026-08-23Research pack, frozen at content/ADBE/research-pack.jsoncontent/ADBE/research-pack.jsonprice, the 252-day range and returns, the measured price reaction to each news item, the analyst split, the Form 4 transcription and the vendor ratio historybacksC27C28C47
- S10primarycompany filing2026-08-05a listed design-software challenger's own revenue, operating margin and the growth of its artificial-intelligence hosting costsbacksC37
- S11primarycompany filing2026-02-18how the challenger describes its own product and market, and that it too names no competitor by nameread, but no claim rests on it
- S12primarygovernment data2025-08-29U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook - Graphic Designers U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsthe size and projected growth of the largest professional design occupation, measured by a statistical agency rather than by a vendor
Number of Jobs, 2024 265,900 Job Outlook, 2024-34 2% (Slower than average) Employment Change, 2024-34 5,700
backsC39 - S13primarygovernment data2025-08-29U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook - Art Directors U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsa second occupation in the professional seat base
Number of Jobs, 2024 135,000 Job Outlook, 2024-34 4% (As fast as average) Employment Change, 2024-34 5,700
backsC39 - S14primarygovernment data2025-08-29U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook - Photographers U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsa third occupation in the professional seat base
Number of Jobs, 2024 151,200 Job Outlook, 2024-34 2% (Slower than average)
backsC39 - S15primarygovernment data2025-08-29U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook - Film and Video Editors and Camera Operators U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsa fourth occupation in the professional seat base
Number of Jobs, 2024 79,900 Job Outlook, 2024-34 3% (As fast as average) Employment Change, 2024-34 2,200
backsC39 - S16primarygovernment data2025-08-29U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook - Web Developers and Digital Designers U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsthe fifth and fastest-growing occupation in the professional seat base
Number of Jobs, 2024 214,900 Job Outlook, 2024-34 7% (Much faster than average) Employment Change, 2024-34 15,500
backsC39 - S17primarygovernment data2026-07-13the world and United States labour force, so an occupational count in one country can be scaled to a global base
{"indicator":{"id":"SL.TLF.TOTL.IN","value":"Labor force, total"},"country":{"id":"1W","value":"World"},"countryiso3code":"WLD","date":"2024","value":3697172611}
read, but no claim rests on it - S18primarygovernment data2026-05-26U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey - Large Firms With at Least 20 Employees Biggest AI Users U.S. Census Bureauhow fast businesses are actually adopting artificial intelligence, measured by a statistical agency rather than by a vendor or by Adobe
overall AI usage hovered between 17% and 20% ... between 20% and 23% of businesses expected to be using it in the next six months
backsC42 - S19primaryother2026-08-23the attacker's own description of a shipping product that does the create-and-edit job, in its own words
Gemini can generate and process images conversationally with text, images, or a combination of both. This lets you create, edit, and iterate on visuals with unprecedented control.
backsC35 - S20primaryother2026-08-23a second attacker's own description of a shipping generation-and-editing product
The OpenAI API lets you generate and edit images from text prompts using GPT Image models, including our latest, gpt-image-2.
backsC36 - S21primarygovernment data2019-03-01Library of Congress, Sustainability of Digital Formats - PDF, Version 1.7 (ISO 32000-1:2008) Library of Congressthat the document format underneath Acrobat is an open international standard rather than Adobe property, which bounds the moat from outside
PDF (Portable Document Format), developed by Adobe Systems Incorporated, is described by Adobe as a general document representation language. ... Version 1.7 was published as ISO 32000-1 in July 2008.
backsC34 - S22primaryother2026-08-11the semi-monthly short interest series, which is a regulatory disclosure and shows how positioning moved through the year
{"settlementDate":"07/31/2026","interest":"19,347,621","avgDailyShareVolume":"5,923,758","daysToCover":3.266106}
backsC29 - S23primaryother2026-08-23the list price per professional seat, reproduced across two independently phrased requests
Pay US$34.99/mo for the first 3 months and US$69.99/mo after that
read, but no claim rests on it - S24primarycompany filing2026-07-31the transaction code, read on EDGAR rather than from the vendor aggregate: code S, 416 shares at $264.33backsC47
- S25secondarynews2026-06-11the characterisation of the post-results price as a seven-year low, which the three years of price history in the pack cannot themselves establishbacksC27
- S26primarycompany filing2026-03-02how Salesforce describes itself, for the cohort testread, but no claim rests on it
- S27primarycompany filing2026-03-18how DocuSign describes itself, for the cohort testread, but no claim rests on it
- S28primarycompany filing2026-01-27that half of executive performance shares vest on recurring revenue growth, and that the calculation strips out material acquisitions and currency - the two things the published growth rate includesbacksC56
- S29primaryregulator2026ASIC media release 26-090MR, Canva Group pays $792,000 in infringement notices for failing to lodge financial reports on time Australian Securities and Investments Commissionthat the largest private rival does file audited consolidated accounts, with an Australian regulator, and the date of the most recent lodgement - the route this thesis recorded as non-existent after searching only Canva's own newsroom
Canva Pty Ltd, Canva Operations Pty Limited, Canva Trading Pty Ltd, and Fusion Books Pty Ltd each paid an infringement notice of $198,000 ... for the financial year ending 31 December 2024 by the required date ... Canva Pty Ltd lodged its FY24 consolidated report covering the four companies on 27 March 2026. ... Large proprietary companies are required to prepare and lodge annual financial reports. A proprietary company is classified as large if it meets at least two of the following criteria for a financial year: the consolidated revenue of the company and any entities it controls is $50 million or more; the consolidated gross assets ... is $25 million or more, and; the company and any entities it controls have 100 or more employees.
backsC57 - S30primarycompany release2026-09-10backsC03C04C05C08C09C10C11C15C31C44C45C46C48
- S31primarytranscript2026-09-10backsC04C07
- S32primarycompany filing2026-09-08backsC31
- S33primarycompany release2025-09-11backsC09C15
- S34primarycompany filing2026-09-22Nine-month operating cash flow, capital spending and stock compensation; the balance sheet's cash, investments and debt; the remaining repurchase authority; and the cover-page share count.backsC18C24C25C51C58C59C62C63
- S35secondaryvendor data2026-09-24ADBE research pack, refreshed 2026-09-24 (2026-09-23 close)Last completed-session close of $240.69 on 2026-09-23.backsC25C26C51
- S36primarycompany filing2026-02-27beneficial ownership at 17 February 2026, the fiscal 2025 cash incentive plan and its payout, the 2023 and 2025 performance share programs and their payouts, the chief executive's pay mix, and the directors' and officers' biographiesbacksC60C61C63