← All thesesORCLNeutralLow convictionWednesday 28 October 2026עברית

Oracle

The company behind the database many large businesses run on, now borrowing heavily to rent computing power to AI labs.

Our viewNeutral Low conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑

Revenue grew 30% in Q1 FY2027 and is guided to $90B, but the growth narrows to rented computing for a few AI buyers.

Business quality3/4 ↓

Database customers rarely leave, but the growing half rents capacity buyers can take elsewhere, and its margins are lower and falling.

Financial position2/4 ↓

Free cash flow is minus $28.7B a year, debt $125B, $288B of leases signed, and the plan needs about $40B of new money this year.

Execution record3/4 →

Beat estimates four quarters running and now dates positive cash flow to late fiscal 2028; spending keeps rising until then.

Per share capture2/4 ↓

141M new shares sold, a convertible preferred, no buybacks and $4.8B of stock pay: diluted shares rose 3% in a year.

Potential2/4 →

$664B is signed, but it pays only if a few AI buyers, mainly OpenAI, raise the money to take it, which Oracle does not control.

Risk profile2/4 ↓

One buyer's funding decides whether long leases and debt are covered; a delayed site and a pending permit show it can slip.

Valuation3/4 ↑

About 18 times guided adjusted earnings and 22 trailing: the guided plan, nothing for the backlog beyond it or the cash gap.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Results, backlog, debt and leases are filed; who the backlog is with and whether they can pay rest on inference and outside accounts.

The Verdict

We rate Oracle neutral. It is a mixed business: customers rarely abandon its database, which brings in about $20B a year of support, but the fast-growing half rents computing power to a few AI labs and earns less on it. The price is fair: at about 18 times the earnings guided for the year to May 2027, it is about right if the plan arrives, with no cushion if it does not. The risk is OpenAI, behind most of $664B of signed contracts: Oracle borrows and sells shares to build for it, and OpenAI must raise the money to pay.

The long caseAI labs and companies keep buying more computing than they can build themselves, and Oracle's database customers stay while it delivers capacity.

The evidence under this - 7 claims
C14facthigh confidence
Software support revenue, paid each year by customers keeping Oracle's database and applications, was $19,804M in the year to May 2026, up 1%, while new licence sales were $4,737M; support has stayed near $20B a year while customers move workloads elsewhere.
against this

Support growth of 1% says few customers leave but also that the installed base is not growing; licence sales fell.

historical · FY 2026written 2026-10-07
C03facthigh confidence
In the quarter to August 2026 revenue was $19,345M, up 30%. Cloud infrastructure was $7,388M, up 121%, cloud applications $4,219M, up 10%, and software licences and support $5,550M, down 3%. Operating income was $6,728M, a 35% margin, or $8,151M and 42% adjusted; diluted earnings were $1.56 a share, $1.92 adjusted.
against this

The cloud and software segment margin fell to 55% from 60% a year earlier (C13): the growth is coming from the lower-margin half of the company.

historical · Q1 FY 2027written 2026-10-07
C05facthigh confidence
Customers had signed $664B of future revenue not yet recognised at 31 August 2026, against $455B a year earlier and $138B in May 2025. Oracle expects about 13% to become revenue in the next twelve months, 37% in months 13 to 36 and 34% in months 37 to 60. The rise came mainly from certain significant cloud contracts.
against this

Neither filing names the customers, and about a third of the total is not due for three to five years, so the figure is a schedule of promises whose value rests on the buyers' ability to pay (C06, C07).

current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-07
C07inferencemedium confidence
Most of the $664B rests on OpenAI. The total jumped from $138B to $455B in one quarter on a few significant contracts (C05), Epoch AI reports that Oracle owns the hardware at the Stargate sites and that all of them serve OpenAI (C18), and the 10-K concedes concentration among a number of large customers (C06).
derivedOracle names no customer; the inference joins its own filing to an outside account of who the Stargate sites serve.
against this

Management says Q1's $30B of new contracts came from several customers on prepayment or with their own chips (C12), so the share resting on OpenAI may be falling; nobody outside can measure it.

current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-07
C30inferencemedium confidence
At $144.77 the shares cost about 17.9 times the $8.10 of adjusted earnings guided for the year to May 2027 and 22.1 times trailing earnings; adjusted earnings leave out stock pay of $4.8B a year and count none of the cash spent ahead of revenue.
derived$144.77 (C29) over guided adjusted earnings of $8.10 (C04); trailing P/E from the pack; stock pay from the 10-K (C38).
against this

On trailing earnings Oracle is near the median of Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet, so the low forward multiple partly reflects earnings growth those rivals also have.

current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-07
C08facthigh confidence
Cash from operations was $23,103M in the August 2026 quarter, of which $11,363M was customer prepayments, and capital spending $28,499M, leaving free cash flow of minus $5,396M. Over the twelve months to August, operations brought in $46,940M and capital spending took $75,660M, a gap of $28,720M.
historical · Q1 FY 2027written 2026-10-07
C09facthigh confidence
At 31 August 2026 Oracle held $36,369M of cash and $708M of securities against $125,337M of debt and $43,806M of lease liabilities. It had signed a further $288B of data centre leases, starting between late 2026 and 2029 for fifteen to nineteen years, not on the balance sheet, and $34,150M of purchase commitments.
current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-07
01

The company

Oracle sells the database software that stores a company's customers, orders and payroll, the business applications that run on it, and yearly support for both.

It also runs its own cloud: data centres full of servers and Nvidia or AMD chips that it rents by the hour or on contracts of several years. AI labs rent huge clusters of these chips to train and run their models, instead of building their own.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Oracle sells its database and middleware, business applications such as Fusion, NetSuite and its health records software, and support on all of them; it also rents computing power, storage and AI chips from its own cloud, and sells servers and consulting. It reports three segments, cloud and license, hardware and services, and had about 141,000 staff in May 2026, 13% fewer than a year earlier.
current state · 2026-05-31written 2026-10-07
C12management claimmedium confidence
Management says it delivered 850 megawatts of AI capacity in the quarter, three times the prior quarter, ran its chips at 97.9% use, re-rented chips mostly four or more years old at 20% above their old prices, delivered six of eight buildings at Abilene, and signed over $30B of new AI contracts that customers prepay or supply chips for.
against this

Epoch AI reports that OpenAI dropped its plan to expand Abilene and that Microsoft took the neighbouring site (C18).

current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-07
C35management claimmedium confidence
Management says database revenue run inside Microsoft's and Amazon's clouds grew 353% in the quarter, across 70 regions, so customers can keep Oracle's database while moving the rest of their systems to a rival cloud.
current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-07

How it makes money

Three kinds of money arrive. Support and licences are the old engine: customers pay every year to keep the database updated, and Oracle keeps most of each dollar. Cloud applications are monthly subscriptions. Cloud infrastructure is rent on computing power, now the largest single line and the fastest-growing.

The catch is the order of payments: Oracle buys the buildings and chips first and collects the rent over years, so cash goes out long before it comes back.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C02facthigh confidence
In the year to May 2026 revenue was $67,357M, up 17%. Cloud revenue was $33,989M, up 39%: infrastructure $18,101M, up 77%, and applications $15,888M, up 11%. Software licences and support were $24,541M, down 1%, of which support was $19,804M. Operating income was $20,606M and diluted earnings $5.83 a share, $7.63 adjusted.
historical · FY 2026written 2026-10-07
C03facthigh confidence
In the quarter to August 2026 revenue was $19,345M, up 30%. Cloud infrastructure was $7,388M, up 121%, cloud applications $4,219M, up 10%, and software licences and support $5,550M, down 3%. Operating income was $6,728M, a 35% margin, or $8,151M and 42% adjusted; diluted earnings were $1.56 a share, $1.92 adjusted.
against this

The cloud and software segment margin fell to 55% from 60% a year earlier (C13): the growth is coming from the lower-margin half of the company.

historical · Q1 FY 2027written 2026-10-07
C08facthigh confidence
Cash from operations was $23,103M in the August 2026 quarter, of which $11,363M was customer prepayments, and capital spending $28,499M, leaving free cash flow of minus $5,396M. Over the twelve months to August, operations brought in $46,940M and capital spending took $75,660M, a gap of $28,720M.
historical · Q1 FY 2027written 2026-10-07
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (Q1 FY 2027)How it earns it
Cloud infrastructure38.2%Rented computing power, storage, AI chip clusters and database services by the hour or on multi-year contracts.
Software support25.3%Yearly fees from customers keeping Oracle's database and applications on their own servers, for updates and help.
Cloud applications21.8%Subscriptions to Fusion, NetSuite and industry applications such as health records.
Services7.3%Consulting and help installing and running Oracle's products.
Hardware4.0%Servers, storage and engineered systems.
Software licences3.4%New perpetual licences for the database and applications.

Who runs it

Founder Larry Ellison, chairman and chief technology officer, owns 38% of the company. Since September 2025 two co-chief executives run it: Clay Magouyrk, who built Oracle's cloud after working at Amazon Web Services, and Mike Sicilia, from its industry applications. Hilary Maxson became finance chief in April 2026.

The bonus pays on growth in adjusted operating income, and the big option awards pay on revenue reaching $100B to $125B in the year to May 2028. Every option is worth nothing at today's price.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C25facthigh confidence
Larry Ellison, chairman and chief technology officer, owned 1,158M shares, 38.2% of the company, in September 2026, and is the one person allowed to pledge shares; directors and officers together held 38.4%. On 14 September 2026 Oracle disclosed that he had cancelled his share sale plan and had no other.
current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-10-07
C26facthigh confidence
Clay Magouyrk, who ran Oracle's cloud and was an engineer at Amazon Web Services from 2008 to 2014, and Mike Sicilia, who ran its industry applications, became co-chief executives on 22 September 2025, when Safra Catz became executive vice chair; Hilary Maxson became chief financial officer on 6 April 2026.
current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-10-07
C27facthigh confidence
The yearly bonus pays on growth in adjusted operating income. The long-term awards to the co-chief executives and Ellison are options struck at $280.07 and $308.46 and performance options paying on adjusted revenue for the year to May 2028, from $100B at threshold to $125B at target; at $144.77 every option is underwater.
current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-10-07
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Leaving Oracle's database means rewriting and retesting the systems that run payroll, billing or banking, so customers keep paying support instead; support revenue has stayed near $20B a year. The UK competition regulator found fewer than 1% of cloud customers switch provider a year.

Oracle now lets its database run inside Microsoft's and Amazon's clouds, so a customer can move everything else without leaving it. The rented computing has no such lock: an AI lab can take its next cluster elsewhere, and the margin is lower.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C14facthigh confidence
Software support revenue, paid each year by customers keeping Oracle's database and applications, was $19,804M in the year to May 2026, up 1%, while new licence sales were $4,737M; support has stayed near $20B a year while customers move workloads elsewhere.
against this

Support growth of 1% says few customers leave but also that the installed base is not growing; licence sales fell.

historical · FY 2026written 2026-10-07
C15facthigh confidence
The UK competition regulator found that very few cloud customers switch provider, under 1% a year, and that Amazon and Microsoft each held 30% to 40% of UK cloud infrastructure in 2024.
current state · 2025-07-31written 2026-10-07
C35management claimmedium confidence
Management says database revenue run inside Microsoft's and Amazon's clouds grew 353% in the quarter, across 70 regions, so customers can keep Oracle's database while moving the rest of their systems to a rival cloud.
current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-07
C13facthigh confidence
The cloud and software segment earned a 55% margin in the August 2026 quarter against 60% a year earlier, and 59% in the year to May 2026 against 63%, as lower-margin rented computing grew faster than software.
historical · Q1 FY 2027 and FY 2026written 2026-10-07

The threat

Amazon, Microsoft and Google rent the same chips to the same AI labs, and OpenAI added $100B of commitments with Amazon this year. CoreWeave and Nebius, which do nothing else, are rated above Oracle by SemiAnalysis. For the software, SAP and Workday compete for the applications, and a customer moving clouds can rewrite onto a rival's database.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C20facthigh confidence
Amazon reports that in early 2026 AWS and OpenAI expanded an existing $38B commitment by $100B over eight years, and that Amazon invested $28.7B in OpenAI's latest round in the first half.
historical · H1 2026written 2026-10-07
C18facthigh confidence
Epoch AI reports that Stargate, the $500B data centre plan of OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank, aims at over 9 gigawatts by 2029 with 0.3 gigawatts running at Abilene and six more US sites under construction; Oracle will own the hardware at the remaining sites, all serving OpenAI, and OpenAI dropped a planned Abilene expansion that Microsoft then took with Crusoe.
current state · 2026-04-17written 2026-10-07
C21facthigh confidence
Alphabet reported $519.5B of revenue backlog at 30 June 2026, $513.9B of it Google Cloud, and says it is still short of capacity.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-07
C22facthigh confidence
SemiAnalysis's September 2026 rating of GPU clouds put CoreWeave and Nebius in its top tier and Oracle and Google one tier below, and found Nebius can charge a premium.
current state · 2026-09-23written 2026-10-07
C39facthigh confidence
Oracle's 10-K says its cloud, software and hardware compete directly with offerings from Adobe, Alphabet, Amazon, Cisco, Intel, IBM, Microsoft, Salesforce and SAP, as well as Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Workday, in a market it calls constantly evolving.
current state · 2026-05-31written 2026-10-07

The rivals: AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, SAP, WDAY, CRWV, NBIS, CRM.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
AMZNAmazon Web ServicesPriced against it: YesCloud infrastructureOn saleYes
MSFTMicrosoft AzurePriced against it: YesCloud infrastructureOn saleYes
GOOGLGoogle CloudPriced against it: YesCloud infrastructureOn saleYes
MSFT · AMZNMicrosoft SQL Server and Amazon's databasesPriced against it: YesDatabase, applications and supportOn saleYes
SAP · WDAYSAP and WorkdayPriced against it: One segment onlyDatabase, applications and supportOn saleOne segment only
CRWV · NBISCoreWeave and NebiusPriced against it: No usable figureCloud infrastructureOn saleNo usable figure
CRMSalesforcePriced against it: One segment only-On saleOne segment only
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

Companies and AI labs spent about $500B on renting cloud computing over the year to mid-2026, and Synergy Research measured the market growing 43% in the June quarter. Oracle's share is about 4.4%, behind Amazon, Microsoft and Google.

The power to run it is the limit: the International Energy Agency expects data centre electricity use to more than double by 2030. Oracle's signed $664B is larger than a year of the whole market today.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C16facthigh confidence
Synergy Research measured cloud infrastructure spending at $143.4B in the June 2026 quarter, up 43%, and about $500B over twelve months, with Amazon at 28%, Microsoft 20% and Google 15%; it listed Oracle in a second tier of providers beside CoreWeave, OpenAI, Crusoe, Nebius and Anthropic.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-07
C17inferencemedium confidence
Oracle's cloud infrastructure was about 4.4% of the world market over the year to mid-2026: $22.1B of revenue in its four quarters to August against about $500B measured by Synergy.
derivedFour quarters of Oracle infrastructure revenue (C03 and its 10-Qs) over Synergy's twelve-month market (C16); the periods are two months apart and Synergy's measure includes platform services.
against this

The periods do not line up exactly and Synergy's market includes platform services Oracle reports elsewhere, so the share is approximate.

historical · year to mid-2026written 2026-10-07
C19estimatemedium confidence
The International Energy Agency projects data centre electricity use to more than double to about 945 terawatt hours by 2030.
against this

The agency's own scenarios range widely, and its projection predates the 2026 slowdown in some planned sites.

forwardwritten 2026-10-07
C05facthigh confidence
Customers had signed $664B of future revenue not yet recognised at 31 August 2026, against $455B a year earlier and $138B in May 2025. Oracle expects about 13% to become revenue in the next twelve months, 37% in months 13 to 36 and 34% in months 37 to 60. The rise came mainly from certain significant cloud contracts.
against this

Neither filing names the customers, and about a third of the total is not due for three to five years, so the figure is a schedule of promises whose value rests on the buyers' ability to pay (C06, C07).

current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-07

Who has signed

Customers have signed $664B of future revenue, about half due within three years. Oracle names none of them, but its annual report admits a few large customers dominate, and Epoch AI reports that the Stargate data centres Oracle equips all serve OpenAI.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C05facthigh confidence
Customers had signed $664B of future revenue not yet recognised at 31 August 2026, against $455B a year earlier and $138B in May 2025. Oracle expects about 13% to become revenue in the next twelve months, 37% in months 13 to 36 and 34% in months 37 to 60. The rise came mainly from certain significant cloud contracts.
against this

Neither filing names the customers, and about a third of the total is not due for three to five years, so the figure is a schedule of promises whose value rests on the buyers' ability to pay (C06, C07).

current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-07
C07inferencemedium confidence
Most of the $664B rests on OpenAI. The total jumped from $138B to $455B in one quarter on a few significant contracts (C05), Epoch AI reports that Oracle owns the hardware at the Stargate sites and that all of them serve OpenAI (C18), and the 10-K concedes concentration among a number of large customers (C06).
derivedOracle names no customer; the inference joins its own filing to an outside account of who the Stargate sites serve.
against this

Management says Q1's $30B of new contracts came from several customers on prepayment or with their own chips (C12), so the share resting on OpenAI may be falling; nobody outside can measure it.

current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-07
C18facthigh confidence
Epoch AI reports that Stargate, the $500B data centre plan of OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank, aims at over 9 gigawatts by 2029 with 0.3 gigawatts running at Abilene and six more US sites under construction; Oracle will own the hardware at the remaining sites, all serving OpenAI, and OpenAI dropped a planned Abilene expansion that Microsoft then took with Crusoe.
current state · 2026-04-17written 2026-10-07
Where the growth is coming from, business by business

Where the growth is coming from

BusinessShare of revenueGrowth: last quarterLast half-yearLast year
Cloud60%+61.5%+54.6%+47.3%
Software29%-3.0%-2.5%-1.3%
Services7%+4.8%+8.9%+9.2%
Hardware4%+15.5%+11.7%+8.0%
Whole company100%+29.6%+25.0%+21.6%

The filed split through 2026-08-31. These rates are not carried forward: the reading below says why.

How we read it: The score follows the cloud line, not the blend: cloud is 60% of revenue and grew 55% over the half-year while software shrank 2.5%. Held at 3 because that cloud growth rests on a few AI buyers' signed capacity.

04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Steady

Sales grew 22% over the twelve months to Aug 2026, about the same pace as the 17% in the year to May 2026.

May 2022: $42.4BMay 2023: $50.0BMay 2024: $53.0BMay 2025: $57.4BMay 2026: $67.4B12 mo to Aug 2026: $71.8B$42.4B$71.8B
Is it profitable?Strong

Operating margin is 32%, up from 29% in the year to May 2024.

May 2022: 26%May 2023: 26%May 2024: 29%May 2025: 31%May 2026: 31%12 mo to Aug 2026: 32%26%32%
How steady is it?Steady

Yearly sales growth has ranged from +4.8% to +18% over the last 5 years.

May 2022: +4.8%May 2023: +18%May 2024: +6.0%May 2025: +8.4%May 2026: +17%+4.8%+17%
Does it earn good returns?Strong

Shareholders' money earned 42% a year, down from 214% in the year to May 2024.

May 2024: 214%May 2025: 85%May 2026: 54%12 mo to Aug 2026: 42%214%42%
How long can it keep going?Limited

It used $28.7B of cash over the last twelve months, so the $37.1B it holds lasts about 1.3 years at that pace.

May 2022: $5.03BMay 2023: $8.47BMay 2024: $11.8BMay 2025: −$394MMay 2026: −$23.7B12 mo to Aug 2026: −$28.7B$5.03B−$28.7B
Is profit turning into cash?Thin

It spent more cash than it made while reporting a profit.

May 2022: 0.7×May 2023: 1.0×May 2024: 1.1×May 2025: -0.0×May 2026: -1.4×12 mo to Aug 2026: -1.5×0.7×-1.5×
Are shares being diluted?Creeping

The share count rose 7.7% in 4.3 years, and pay in shares costs 6.7% of sales.

May 2022: 2.79BMay 2023: 2.77BMay 2024: 2.82BMay 2025: 2.87BMay 2026: 2.91B12 mo to Aug 2026: 3.00B2.79B3.00B
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-07. Fiscal years end in May.

May 2022May 2023May 2024May 2025May 202612 mo to Aug 2026
Size and growth
Sales$42.4B$50.0B$53.0B$57.4B$67.4B$71.8B
Sales growth+4.8%+18%+6.0%+8.4%+17%+22%
Profit
Operating margin26%26%29%31%31%32%
Net margin16%17%20%22%25%26%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development17%17%17%17%15%14%
Sales and marketing19%18%16%15%12%11%
General and admin3.1%3.2%2.9%2.8%2.4%2.3%
Pay in shares6.2%7.1%7.5%8.1%7.1%6.7%
Capital spending11%17%13%37%83%105%
Cash
Cash from operations$9.54B$17.2B$18.7B$20.8B$32.0B$46.9B
Free cash flow$5.03B$8.47B$11.8B−$394M−$23.7B−$28.7B
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$21.9B$10.2B$10.7B$11.2B$31.9B$37.1B
Debt$3.75B$4.06B$10.6B$7.27B$7.20B-
Net cash$18.2B$6.13B$56.0M$3.93B$24.7B-
Returns and shares
Shares (diluted)2.79B2.77B2.82B2.87B2.91B3.00B

What growth costs

Oracle cut sales and research costs as a share of revenue, so its operating margin rose from 26% to 31% over three years. But growth now comes from rented computing, which earns less, so the cloud and software margin is falling, and spending on buildings and chips rose from about a sixth of revenue to more than four fifths.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C36facthigh confidence
Over five fiscal years the operating margin rose from 26.2% in 2023 to 30.6% in 2026 as sales and marketing fell from 17.7% of revenue to 12.4% and research from 17.3% to 15.3%; stock pay stayed near 7% of revenue, and capital spending rose from 17.4% of revenue to 82.6%.
historical · FY 2023 to FY 2026written 2026-10-07
C13facthigh confidence
The cloud and software segment earned a 55% margin in the August 2026 quarter against 60% a year earlier, and 59% in the year to May 2026 against 63%, as lower-margin rented computing grew faster than software.
historical · Q1 FY 2027 and FY 2026written 2026-10-07

The last report (10 Sep)

Quarter ended August 2026, filed figures.

30%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
0.8%
Growth from the quarter before
against 11.6% the quarter before that
35¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

In Q1 FY2027, the three months to August 2026, revenue rose 30% to $19.35B. Cloud infrastructure, the rented computing, more than doubled to $7.39B, while the old software licences and support slipped 3%. Adjusted earnings rose to $1.92 a share, and management lifted its target for the year to at least $90B of revenue.

The margin on cloud and software fell to 55% from 60%, because rented computing earns less than software, and cash went the other way: spending on data centres of $28.5B left free cash flow at minus $5.4B for the quarter.

What it did to the thesisIt proved the backlog is turning into revenue on schedule and raised the year's target. It also showed the cost: margins slipping as rented computing grows, and cash still flowing out, so the question of who pays for the build stayed open.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $1.92 against $1.74 expected; $1.56 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C03facthigh confidence
In the quarter to August 2026 revenue was $19,345M, up 30%. Cloud infrastructure was $7,388M, up 121%, cloud applications $4,219M, up 10%, and software licences and support $5,550M, down 3%. Operating income was $6,728M, a 35% margin, or $8,151M and 42% adjusted; diluted earnings were $1.56 a share, $1.92 adjusted.
against this

The cloud and software segment margin fell to 55% from 60% a year earlier (C13): the growth is coming from the lower-margin half of the company.

historical · Q1 FY 2027written 2026-10-07
C04management claimmedium confidence
Management guides second-quarter revenue growth of 30% to 34%, cloud growth of 65% to 71% and adjusted earnings of $1.85 to $1.93 a share. For the year to May 2027 it guides revenue of at least $90B, adjusted earnings of $8.10 a share, and capital spending of $90B to $95B, of which no more than $70B in cash after customer prepayments.
against this

The chief financial officer declined to give any date for positive free cash flow (C11), so the guide covers profit and spending but not the cash gap between them.

forwardwritten 2026-10-07
C13facthigh confidence
The cloud and software segment earned a 55% margin in the August 2026 quarter against 60% a year earlier, and 59% in the year to May 2026 against 63%, as lower-margin rented computing grew faster than software.
historical · Q1 FY 2027 and FY 2026written 2026-10-07
C08facthigh confidence
Cash from operations was $23,103M in the August 2026 quarter, of which $11,363M was customer prepayments, and capital spending $28,499M, leaving free cash flow of minus $5,396M. Over the twelve months to August, operations brought in $46,940M and capital spending took $75,660M, a gap of $28,720M.
historical · Q1 FY 2027written 2026-10-07
What management did with the money

Every source of money has gone into data centres: cash from operations, $43B of new debt last year, preferred stock and $20B of new shares. Buybacks stopped, the dividend continues, and Oracle has signed $288B of building leases that have not started yet.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 19 purchases and 37 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C10facthigh confidence
In the year to May 2026 Oracle raised $43B of debt and $5B of mandatory convertible preferred stock. In the August 2026 quarter it sold 141M new shares for $19.9B, completing a $20B program, and diluted shares rose to 3,000M from 2,909M a year earlier. It bought back no stock and pays $0.50 a share each quarter.
historical · FY 2026 and Q1 FY 2027written 2026-10-07
C08facthigh confidence
Cash from operations was $23,103M in the August 2026 quarter, of which $11,363M was customer prepayments, and capital spending $28,499M, leaving free cash flow of minus $5,396M. Over the twelve months to August, operations brought in $46,940M and capital spending took $75,660M, a gap of $28,720M.
historical · Q1 FY 2027written 2026-10-07
C09facthigh confidence
At 31 August 2026 Oracle held $36,369M of cash and $708M of securities against $125,337M of debt and $43,806M of lease liabilities. It had signed a further $288B of data centre leases, starting between late 2026 and 2029 for fifteen to nineteen years, not on the balance sheet, and $34,150M of purchase commitments.
current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-07
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Fair. The price pays for the guided year and for little of the backlog beyond it, with no allowance for the cash gap.

Share price
$144.77
close,
Price for each $1 of yearly profit
22.1
rivals' middle 20.4 · its 6-year normal 32.2

The shares fell by more than half from their high of a year ago, while sales per share kept rising, so buyers now pay far less for each dollar of sales. Each drop came on news of more borrowing or spending, and in September Oracle used a legal clause to protect itself on a delayed New Mexico site.

A director bought shares at $139 after that news. On 28 October Oracle dated positive free cash flow to late fiscal 2028. New Mexico rules on the air permit by 23 November.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C29facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $144.77 on 6 October 2026, 55% below the 52-week high of $322.54. Over a year the price fell 49.4% while sales per share rose 17.9%: buyers now pay 57.1% less per dollar of sales.
current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-07
C32facthigh confidence
The shares rose 35.9% to $328.33 on 10 September 2025, when the backlog jumped to $455B; fell 10.8% on 11 December 2025 after the second-quarter print; and fell 8.5% on 11 June 2026 after Oracle said it would raise about $40B and spend about $95B, reaching $114.99 on 24 July 2026.
historical · 2025-09 to 2026-07written 2026-10-07
C24factmedium confidence
Oracle sent a force majeure notice to the developer of Project Jupiter, a Stargate campus in New Mexico, after the gas pipeline to it slipped to 1 February 2027; the state must rule on the air permit for its fuel cells by 23 November 2026. Oracle says the project remains on schedule.
against this

Oracle states the project is on its planned schedule, and a force majeure notice protects its own position under the lease rather than cancelling it.

current state · 2026-09-24written 2026-10-07
C28facthigh confidence
Insiders made 28 open-market sales and one purchase in the year to October 2026; 78% of the shares sold were under plans adopted in advance. On 29 September 2026 director Stephen Rusckowski bought 25,000 shares at $139.35.
current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-07
C04management claimmedium confidence
Management guides second-quarter revenue growth of 30% to 34%, cloud growth of 65% to 71% and adjusted earnings of $1.85 to $1.93 a share. For the year to May 2027 it guides revenue of at least $90B, adjusted earnings of $8.10 a share, and capital spending of $90B to $95B, of which no more than $70B in cash after customer prepayments.
against this

The chief financial officer declined to give any date for positive free cash flow (C11), so the guide covers profit and spending but not the cash gap between them.

forwardwritten 2026-10-07
How we read the multiple

A buyer pays for this year's plan.

1. Management guides adjusted earnings of $8.10 a share for the year to May 2027. 2. At $144.77 the shares cost about 18 times that. 3. Adjusted earnings leave out $4.8B a year of pay in shares, a real cost. 4. Free cash flow was about minus $29B over the last year, which earnings do not show.

Fair for a business growing 30%, but only if the buyers pay as signed.

Against its own history. Buyers pay far less than their usual price for each dollar of earnings, because the market now prices the borrowing, not the growth.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C30inferencemedium confidence
At $144.77 the shares cost about 17.9 times the $8.10 of adjusted earnings guided for the year to May 2027 and 22.1 times trailing earnings; adjusted earnings leave out stock pay of $4.8B a year and count none of the cash spent ahead of revenue.
derived$144.77 (C29) over guided adjusted earnings of $8.10 (C04); trailing P/E from the pack; stock pay from the 10-K (C38).
against this

On trailing earnings Oracle is near the median of Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet, so the low forward multiple partly reflects earnings growth those rivals also have.

current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-07
C04management claimmedium confidence
Management guides second-quarter revenue growth of 30% to 34%, cloud growth of 65% to 71% and adjusted earnings of $1.85 to $1.93 a share. For the year to May 2027 it guides revenue of at least $90B, adjusted earnings of $8.10 a share, and capital spending of $90B to $95B, of which no more than $70B in cash after customer prepayments.
against this

The chief financial officer declined to give any date for positive free cash flow (C11), so the guide covers profit and spending but not the cash gap between them.

forwardwritten 2026-10-07
C38facthigh confidence
Stock pay was $4,811M in the year to May 2026, 7.1% of revenue, against $4,674M a year earlier.
historical · FY 2026written 2026-10-07
C08facthigh confidence
Cash from operations was $23,103M in the August 2026 quarter, of which $11,363M was customer prepayments, and capital spending $28,499M, leaving free cash flow of minus $5,396M. Over the twelve months to August, operations brought in $46,940M and capital spending took $75,660M, a gap of $28,720M.
historical · Q1 FY 2027written 2026-10-07
C29facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $144.77 on 6 October 2026, 55% below the 52-week high of $322.54. Over a year the price fell 49.4% while sales per share rose 17.9%: buyers now pay 57.1% less per dollar of sales.
current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-07
Priced against its rivals

The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on price for each $1 of yearly profit, cheapest first:

TickerCompanyprice for each $1 of yearly profit
GOOGLAlphabet17.0×
AMZNAmazon.com20.4×
ORCLOracle22.1×
MSFTMicrosoft29.3×

The middle of the other 3 is 20.4. Oracle Corporation is 2nd dearest of 4.

Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.

Near the middle of Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet, so the price looks like the group's; the debt and the single buyer are Oracle's own.

Also checked and set aside: International Business Machines (a substitute, not the same product).

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

Oracle borrowed too much building data centres for one customer who may not pay.

We believe

The fall in the price has paid for the plan, but not for the risk that OpenAI cannot fund its contracts.

Bulls read the $664B as revenue already won; bears read the debt and the leases. Both treat the backlog as if its value were known. It is a set of promises, and most of it is only as good as one buyer's next fundraising, which nobody outside OpenAI can see.

Against us on the downside: OpenAI is spreading its computing across Amazon and Microsoft and designing its own chips. Against us on the upside: earnings keep beating.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
82%
of 44, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
84%
of 45, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C29facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $144.77 on 6 October 2026, 55% below the 52-week high of $322.54. Over a year the price fell 49.4% while sales per share rose 17.9%: buyers now pay 57.1% less per dollar of sales.
current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-07
C32facthigh confidence
The shares rose 35.9% to $328.33 on 10 September 2025, when the backlog jumped to $455B; fell 10.8% on 11 December 2025 after the second-quarter print; and fell 8.5% on 11 June 2026 after Oracle said it would raise about $40B and spend about $95B, reaching $114.99 on 24 July 2026.
historical · 2025-09 to 2026-07written 2026-10-07
C31facthigh confidence
57 analysts rate the shares buy, 26 hold and 4 sell; on the dated series 81.8% of 44 were positive on 1 October 2026, against 73.3% in February. The average new price target fell 15% against the year's average, and short interest was 3.0% of the float on 15 September.
current state · 2026-10-01written 2026-10-07
C30inferencemedium confidence
At $144.77 the shares cost about 17.9 times the $8.10 of adjusted earnings guided for the year to May 2027 and 22.1 times trailing earnings; adjusted earnings leave out stock pay of $4.8B a year and count none of the cash spent ahead of revenue.
derived$144.77 (C29) over guided adjusted earnings of $8.10 (C04); trailing P/E from the pack; stock pay from the 10-K (C38).
against this

On trailing earnings Oracle is near the median of Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet, so the low forward multiple partly reflects earnings growth those rivals also have.

current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-07
C05facthigh confidence
Customers had signed $664B of future revenue not yet recognised at 31 August 2026, against $455B a year earlier and $138B in May 2025. Oracle expects about 13% to become revenue in the next twelve months, 37% in months 13 to 36 and 34% in months 37 to 60. The rise came mainly from certain significant cloud contracts.
against this

Neither filing names the customers, and about a third of the total is not due for three to five years, so the figure is a schedule of promises whose value rests on the buyers' ability to pay (C06, C07).

current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-07
C07inferencemedium confidence
Most of the $664B rests on OpenAI. The total jumped from $138B to $455B in one quarter on a few significant contracts (C05), Epoch AI reports that Oracle owns the hardware at the Stargate sites and that all of them serve OpenAI (C18), and the 10-K concedes concentration among a number of large customers (C06).
derivedOracle names no customer; the inference joins its own filing to an outside account of who the Stargate sites serve.
against this

Management says Q1's $30B of new contracts came from several customers on prepayment or with their own chips (C12), so the share resting on OpenAI may be falling; nobody outside can measure it.

current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-07
C33inferencemedium confidence
OpenAI is spreading its computing across several suppliers and designing its own chips: it added $100B with AWS (C20), Microsoft took capacity it dropped at Abilene (C18), and its Jalapeño chip is due by the end of 2026 (C23). Oracle's share of OpenAI's future spending is therefore not fixed by its contracts beyond the signed term.
derivedAmazon's filing, Epoch AI and OpenAI's own release, read together.
against this

Each supplier is short of capacity and OpenAI's total plan exceeds what any one can build, so diversifying need not cut Oracle's signed volume.

forwardwritten 2026-10-07
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • One buyer behind the backlog Most of the $664B appears tied to OpenAI, which must keep raising money to pay; a cut would leave Oracle with empty capacity.
  • Leases outlast the contracts Oracle signed $288B of leases running fifteen to nineteen years, longer than most customer contracts, and its own annual report flags the mismatch.
  • More shares to come Free cash flow is negative and debt is $125B. Management caps new raises at $20B through fiscal 2030, half shares.
  • Sites can slip A New Mexico site already sent a legal delay notice after its gas pipeline slipped, and its air permit is undecided.
  • The buyer diversifies OpenAI added $100B with Amazon and is designing its own chip, so Oracle's share of its future spending is not fixed.
  • One owner controls it Larry Ellison owns 38% and is allowed to pledge his shares, so outside shareholders cannot force a change.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C07inferencemedium confidence
Most of the $664B rests on OpenAI. The total jumped from $138B to $455B in one quarter on a few significant contracts (C05), Epoch AI reports that Oracle owns the hardware at the Stargate sites and that all of them serve OpenAI (C18), and the 10-K concedes concentration among a number of large customers (C06).
derivedOracle names no customer; the inference joins its own filing to an outside account of who the Stargate sites serve.
against this

Management says Q1's $30B of new contracts came from several customers on prepayment or with their own chips (C12), so the share resting on OpenAI may be falling; nobody outside can measure it.

current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-07
C06facthigh confidence
No customer was 10% of revenue in the year to May 2026, but the 10-K warns that in certain cloud infrastructure offerings Oracle is more concentrated among a number of large customers, which raises the risk of non-payment, and that its data centre leases may outlast or mismatch its customer contracts.
current state · 2026-05-31written 2026-10-07
C09facthigh confidence
At 31 August 2026 Oracle held $36,369M of cash and $708M of securities against $125,337M of debt and $43,806M of lease liabilities. It had signed a further $288B of data centre leases, starting between late 2026 and 2029 for fifteen to nineteen years, not on the balance sheet, and $34,150M of purchase commitments.
current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-07
C10facthigh confidence
In the year to May 2026 Oracle raised $43B of debt and $5B of mandatory convertible preferred stock. In the August 2026 quarter it sold 141M new shares for $19.9B, completing a $20B program, and diluted shares rose to 3,000M from 2,909M a year earlier. It bought back no stock and pays $0.50 a share each quarter.
historical · FY 2026 and Q1 FY 2027written 2026-10-07
C24factmedium confidence
Oracle sent a force majeure notice to the developer of Project Jupiter, a Stargate campus in New Mexico, after the gas pipeline to it slipped to 1 February 2027; the state must rule on the air permit for its fuel cells by 23 November 2026. Oracle says the project remains on schedule.
against this

Oracle states the project is on its planned schedule, and a force majeure notice protects its own position under the lease rather than cancelling it.

current state · 2026-09-24written 2026-10-07
C33inferencemedium confidence
OpenAI is spreading its computing across several suppliers and designing its own chips: it added $100B with AWS (C20), Microsoft took capacity it dropped at Abilene (C18), and its Jalapeño chip is due by the end of 2026 (C23). Oracle's share of OpenAI's future spending is therefore not fixed by its contracts beyond the signed term.
derivedAmazon's filing, Epoch AI and OpenAI's own release, read together.
against this

Each supplier is short of capacity and OpenAI's total plan exceeds what any one can build, so diversifying need not cut Oracle's signed volume.

forwardwritten 2026-10-07
C25facthigh confidence
Larry Ellison, chairman and chief technology officer, owned 1,158M shares, 38.2% of the company, in September 2026, and is the one person allowed to pledge shares; directors and officers together held 38.4%. On 14 September 2026 Oracle disclosed that he had cancelled his share sale plan and had no other.
current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-10-07
What we still do not know
  • How much of the $664B OpenAI owes, and on what payment terms; neither company publishes it.
  • How OpenAI will pay for what it has signed with Oracle, Amazon and Microsoft, since it publishes no audited accounts.
  • Whether free cash flow turns positive in late fiscal 2028, as management says.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C07inferencemedium confidence
Most of the $664B rests on OpenAI. The total jumped from $138B to $455B in one quarter on a few significant contracts (C05), Epoch AI reports that Oracle owns the hardware at the Stargate sites and that all of them serve OpenAI (C18), and the 10-K concedes concentration among a number of large customers (C06).
derivedOracle names no customer; the inference joins its own filing to an outside account of who the Stargate sites serve.
against this

Management says Q1's $30B of new contracts came from several customers on prepayment or with their own chips (C12), so the share resting on OpenAI may be falling; nobody outside can measure it.

current state · 2026-08-31written 2026-10-07
C24factmedium confidence
Oracle sent a force majeure notice to the developer of Project Jupiter, a Stargate campus in New Mexico, after the gas pipeline to it slipped to 1 February 2027; the state must rule on the air permit for its fuel cells by 23 November 2026. Oracle says the project remains on schedule.
against this

Oracle states the project is on its planned schedule, and a force majeure notice protects its own position under the lease rather than cancelling it.

current state · 2026-09-24written 2026-10-07
C11management claimlow confidence
At its 28 October 2026 investor day Oracle dated positive free cash flow to the second half of fiscal 2028, with at least $30B in fiscal 2029, after peak capital spending in fiscal 2027 and 2028. It targets fiscal 2030 revenue of $225B or more, a 40% or better adjusted operating margin and adjusted earnings of $21 or more a share, reaffirmed fiscal 2027 revenue of at least $90B, and said new raises through fiscal 2030 will stay at $20B, $10B of shares and $10B of debt, beyond the $20B already sold. The chief financial officer said in September that each project, once ramped, converts close to 100% of after-tax operating cash profit into free cash flow.
against this

The twelve-month cash gap widened to $28,720M (C08), Oracle signed $288B of new leases that start before most projects ramp (C09), and the dated path and fiscal 2030 targets are management's plan, not results; the release gives no spending figures or named buyers.

  1. 2026-10-28editedthe investor day gave the date for positive free cash flow that the claim said management had not given, and capped new raises
forwardwritten 2026-10-07

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveA cheaper price on an unchanged plan

    It needs:

    • ○The shares cost 13 times the adjusted earnings guided for the year to May 2027, from about 18 today.about $105.14 today, 27% below the last close
  2. Neutral→AttractiveThe cash turns and the buyers widen

    It needs all of:

    • ○Spending stays under $70B this year and Oracle holds its dated free cash flow plan for late fiscal 2028.watched as it happens
    • ○Oracle discloses a second large AI buyer adding at least $50B of signed future revenue.watched as it happens
  3. Neutral→UnattractiveA buyer steps back

    It needs any of:

    • ○A large AI customer cancels, delays or renegotiates capacity it signed, or the signed future revenue falls in a quarter.watched as it happens
    • ○Oracle sells new shares beyond the $20B already sold before May 2027.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
  • Cash spending on data centres runs above the $70B cap for the year.
  • Support revenue, the database customers who stay, falls by more than 3% in a year.

What is coming

  • 23 November 2026 New Mexico air permit decision for Project Jupiter: Whether the first delayed Stargate site gets its power on time.
Every dated event ahead
  • 23 November 2026 New Mexico air permit decision for Project Jupiter: Whether the first delayed Stargate site gets its power on time.
  • 9 December 2026 Q2 FY2027 results: Cloud growth against the 65% to 71% guide, the backlog, and cash spending against the $70B cap.
Since we wrote this
Written
7 Oct
Price the thesis read
$144.77
6 Oct
  • 28 OctNewsOracle dates positive free cash flow; view heldManagement put positive free cash flow in the second half of fiscal 2028 and capped new raises at $20B; a plan without a new buyer, so Neutral held.
  • 27 OctNewsOracle adds OpenAI products and Google chips to its cloud, no new contract value. View heldOracle AI World: OpenAI product tie-up, Google TPUs and wider Nvidia supply on Oracle Cloud.
  • 22 OctThesis reviewRevenue split re-read; view heldOracle's cloud line is 60% of revenue and growing 55%; the growth score already reflected it, so nothing moved.
  • 9 OctNewsOpenAI's reported $50 billion revenue run-rate, below $68 billion, hits Oracle's shares. View heldOpenAI tells investors its annualised revenue is about $50 billion, below the $68 billion figure circulating.
  • 8 OctNewsOracle reportedly negotiates lender-funded chip leasing with Apollo and Goldman Sachs. View heldWSJ reports Oracle is in talks with Apollo and Goldman Sachs to finance chips through a leasing vehicle.
  • 7 OctThesis writtenNeutral, low convictionWritten a month after Q1 FY2027 results and two weeks after the force majeure notice, with the shares 55% below their high.

Also checked 2 times with nothing new to act on.

Sources 22

Where this came from

Sources - 22

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-06-22
    what Oracle sells, the competition paragraph, concentration and lease risk factors, the FY2026 statements, revenue by type, the backlog and its schedule, debt, the preferred stock and headcount
    backsC01C02C05C06C10C13C14C36C38C39
  2. S02primarycompany release2026-06-10
    FY2026 revenue by line, adjusted earnings and the financing plan announced with the year
    backsC02C14C32
  3. S03primarycompany filing2026-09-11
    the August 2026 balance sheet, cash flow, backlog schedule, leases not yet started, purchase commitments, segment margins, share issuance and debt
    backsC03C04C05C08C09C10C13
  4. S04primarytranscript2026-09-10
    Oracle Q1 FY2027 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 10 September 2026
    the guide, capacity delivered, chip use and renewal prices, the cash-flow answer, gross margin, the equity sale and multicloud database growth
    We closed more than $30 billion of additional AI contracts in Q1 without requiring additional capital from Oracle.
    backsC03C04C08C10C11C12C35C37
  5. S05primarycompany release2026-09-10
    Q1 revenue by line, adjusted earnings and the dividend
    read, but no claim rests on it
  6. S06primarycompany filing2026-09-25
    ownership, the pledging exception, leadership changes, the bonus measure, option strikes and the performance option targets
    backsC25C26C27
  7. S07primarycompany filing2026-09-14
    the cancellation of Ellison's share sale plan
    backsC25
  8. S08primarycompany filing2026-10-07
    Form 4 filings read by scripts/insider_fetch.py, 7 October 2026
    every open-market sale and purchase in a year with its 10b5-1 flag
    backsC28
  9. S09primaryvendor data2026-10-07
    Research pack for ORCL (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest), fetched 7 October 2026
    price and returns, the price move split, analyst ratings, target drift, short interest, earnings history, headcount and the insider base rate
    backsC01C27C29C31C32C37
  10. S10primaryregulator2025-07-31
    the switching rate between cloud providers and the shares of Amazon and Microsoft
    Very few customers switch between clouds: less than 1% of customers switch provider each year.
    backsC15
  11. S11primaryindustry data2026-07-30
    cloud infrastructure spending, its growth, the leaders' shares and the fastest-growing second tier
    Among the tier two cloud providers, those with the highest growth rates include CoreWeave, OpenAI, Oracle, Crusoe, Nebius, Anthropic and Nscale.
    backsC16
  12. S12primaryindustry data2026-04-17
    the Stargate plan, the sites under construction, Oracle's ownership of the hardware, and Abilene's expansion going to Microsoft
    Oracle will own the hardware at the remaining sites.
    backsC18
  13. S13primarygovernment data2025-04-10
    the projected growth of data centre electricity use
    Data centre electricity consumption is set to more than double to around 945 TWh by 2030.
    backsC19
  14. S14primarycompany filing2026-07-31
    the expanded AWS commitment with OpenAI and Amazon's OpenAI investment
    backsC20
  15. S15primarycompany filing2026-07-23
    Google Cloud's revenue backlog
    backsC21
  16. S16primaryindustry data2026-09-23
    the tiers of GPU clouds, with Oracle rated Gold below CoreWeave and Nebius
    Nebius joins CoreWeave in the Platinum tier. While CoreWeave still sets the technical bar for others to follow, Nebius is now established as a provider that consistently commands a premium pricing over others.
    backsC22
  17. S17primarycompany release2026-06-24
    OpenAI's own chip and its timing
    Jalapeño is the first step in a multi-generation compute platform designed for initial deployment by the end of 2026 and expanding in the years ahead
    backsC23
  18. S18secondarynews2026-09-24
    the notice, the pipeline delay, the air permit deadline and Oracle's statement
    Oracle has sent a force majeure notice to the developer of Project Jupiter, a Stargate data center campus in New Mexico.
    backsC24
  19. S19primarycompany filing2026-10-01
    the director's open-market purchase
    backsC28
  20. S20primarycompany filing2026-03-02
    what CoreWeave sells and to whom
    backsC34
  21. S21primarycompany filing2026-10-07
    Oracle filed statements, FY2022 to FY2026 and trailing twelve months (content/ORCL/financials.json, SEC XBRL)
    five years of revenue, operating income, cost lines, stock pay, cash flow, capital spending and share count
    backsC36C38
  22. S22primarycompany filing2026-10-28
    the fiscal 2030 outlook, the dated path to positive free cash flow, the cap on new capital raises and the reaffirmed fiscal 2027 outlook
    backsC11
Rendered from content/ORCL/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-28. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.