← All thesesQNeutralMedium convictionWednesday 9 September 2026עברית

Qnity Electronics

DuPont's former electronics arm: the pads, chemicals and films that chip factories use up as they make and package chips.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑

Organic volume growth of 20% beating its end markets, but three quarters of record as an independent company caps it below Compounding.

Business quality3/4 →

A qualification barrier stated by a rival who must cross it - but price falls every year, and a named Chinese entrant sells into China.

Financial position3/4 →

Net debt near $3.1 billion against $1.7 billion of guided profit, nothing due before 2032 - but an uncapped indemnification sits beside it.

Execution record3/4 →

Three prints as an independent company, three beats, guidance raised twice. Too short to say more, and the finance seat was interim for seven months.

Per share capture3/4 →

Count falling, buybacks above stock compensation, no convertibles - but six months is a policy rather than a record, and leakage runs through the indemnity.

Potential2/4 ↑

A bigger version of today, and merely expected: no contracted demand at all, and the upside rests on other people's capacity and utilisation decisions.

Risk profile2/4 ↓

A third of sales in China, where one externally controlled rule change resolves in a single step, beside two customers at a fifth.

Valuation2/4 →

The price reflects the plan working and assumes the adjusted number is the right one, when it excludes two-fifths of the half's charges.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Filings, both reconciliations, the call and three rivals' own annual reports - but the moat's magnitude and half the prize are unmeasured by anyone.

The Verdict

We rate Qnity neutral. It sells the pads, chemicals and films that chip and circuit-board factories use up every day, and the operating business is doing well, with sales rising on volume alone. But leaving DuPont loaded it with heavy interest costs and a share of DuPont's old liabilities, so earnings per share fell while sales rose, which makes the business mixed. The price is fair for the operating business but leaves no room for those liabilities and one-off charges, so it is full, not cheap. The view hinges on the gap between adjusted and reported profit narrowing. We think the shareholder's claim is thinner than the headline earnings say.

The long caseChips are built taller, with more layers and packaging steps, so factories use more of Qnity's materials per wafer; the shareholder must also keep enough after debt.

The evidence under this - 8 claims
C18facthigh confidence
Qnity's net sales grew 20% to $2,744 million in the first half of 2026, on a 20% increase in volume and a 1% decline in local price and product mix.
historical · six months ended 30 June 2026written 2026-09-09
C28facthigh confidence
The same January 2026 reconciliation puts pro forma interest expense at about $250 million a year and recurring standalone public-company costs at about $96 million a year.
forward · annual run rate from FY2026written 2026-09-09
C34facthigh confidence
Qnity and DuPont agreed on 2 December 2025 that the Applicable Qnity Percentage is 44%, the uncapped share of DuPont's legacy PFAS and discontinued-business liabilities that Qnity pays or indemnifies.
current state · 2025-12-02written 2026-09-09
C25facthigh confidence
In the first half of 2026 Qnity's net sales rose 20% while net income available for common stockholders fell 28%, from $381 million to $275 million, and diluted EPS fell from $1.82 to $1.31.
historical · six months ended 30 June 2026written 2026-09-09
C59inferencemedium confidence
At $123.28 the price pays for the operating business at roughly what Qnity's own named rivals fetch on the operating line, and assumes the legacy allocation stays small and the transformation charges stop.
derivedEnterprise value of about $28.9 billion over trailing operating profit rebuilt from the filings as pre-tax income plus interest, about $1,090 million, gives 26.5 times - against 27.2 for Element Solutions and 30.0 for MKS in the same filed cohort. The equity is about 27 times guided adjusted EPS of $4.40-4.60, a figure that excluded $0.95 per share of first-half charges, of which the transformation and legacy halves are cash.
against this
  • Half of the excluded charges are intangible amortisation on a filed declining schedule that reaches $89 million by 2030, so the assumption that they stop is partly correct by construction rather than optimistic.
  • The cohort is two comparable members on this metric - Entegris is withheld because the vendor's operating margin does not reconcile to its filed XBRL - and a median of two names is one name's opinion, so 'roughly what its rivals fetch' is a weak comparison rather than a strong one.
current state · 2026-09-09written 2026-09-09
C48facthigh confidence
At $123.28 Qnity's enterprise value of about $28.9 billion is 26.5 times trailing operating profit, against 27.2 times for Element Solutions and 30.0 times for MKS in its own filed competitor cohort.
current state · 2026-09-09written 2026-09-09
C31estimatehigh confidence
Qnity's first-half 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.26 excludes $0.95 per share of charges taken in that half - 42% of the adjusted figure - against GAAP diluted EPS of $1.31.
derivedAdjusted Pro Forma EPS of $2.26 less GAAP diluted EPS of $1.31, both from the same reconciliation table in the Q2 2026 release; $0.95 divided by $2.26 is 42%.
against this
  • Roughly half of the excluded amount is amortisation of intangibles - $102 million in the half - which is non-cash and arises from purchase accounting on acquisitions DuPont made, not from anything Qnity is spending. On a filed schedule it falls from $199 million in 2026 to $89 million in 2030, so the gap narrows mechanically without anything improving.
  • The transformation and integration charges inside it, $70 million in the half of which $48 million is information-technology independence, end when the migration completes; management says about two thirds of sites move to Qnity's own systems by the end of 2026.
historical · six months ended 30 June 2026written 2026-09-09
C50factmedium confidence
Four of four analysts covering Qnity rate it Buy, short interest is 2.0% of float at the 14 August 2026 settlement and fell 15% from the prior settlement, and days to cover is 2.4.
current state · 2026-08-14written 2026-09-09
01

The company

Every chip passes through dozens of steps that use up materials: pads and slurries that polish each layer flat, coatings used to print circuit patterns, chemicals that clean and etch, and baths that plate the copper connecting a chip to its package. Qnity sells these.

Over 90% of its 2025 revenue came from products used up in a customer's factory or built into the device. It spent $354M on research in 2025, 7% of sales.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Over 90% of Qnity's 2025 revenue came from products either used up in a customer's manufacturing process or built into the finished electronic device.
historical · FY2025written 2026-09-09
C15facthigh confidence
Qnity spent $354 million on research and development in 2025, 7% of net sales, up from $314 million in 2024.
historical · FY2025written 2026-09-09

How it makes money

Customers reorder as their lines run, so sales follow how busy the factories are. Chip-making materials brought in $2.64B in 2025 and circuit-board and packaging materials $2.11B. Samsung was 11% of sales and TSMC 8%, and no customer has signed a long-term commitment to buy.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C02facthigh confidence
Qnity reports two segments: Semiconductor Technologies, $2,642 million of 2025 net sales, and Interconnect Solutions, $2,112 million.
historical · FY2025written 2026-09-09
C13facthigh confidence
Samsung Electronics was 11% and TSMC 8% of Qnity's 2025 net sales, with the top ten customers 34%.
historical · FY2025written 2026-09-09
C12facthigh confidence
Qnity states that its contracts with certain top customers contain no long-term purchase commitments, that customers work to non-binding short-term forecasts and may cancel or change quantities, and that its business is not substantially dependent on any contract.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-09
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (H1 2026)How it earns it
Semiconductor Technologies53.4%Consumables used up inside the wafer fab: CMP pads and slurries, cleaning chemistries, lithography and deposition materials, bought per wafer processed.
Interconnect Solutions46.6%Plating and metallization chemistry, laminates and Laird thermal and shielding materials built into circuit boards, advanced packages and devices, bought per board or package made.

Who runs it

Jon Kemp has run Qnity since it left DuPont in November 2025, and ran the same businesses inside DuPont for six years before that. A new finance chief, Ken Rizvi, started in October after nine months with a stand-in. Insiders own less than 1% of the shares. The yearly bonus rides on sales growth and a profit measure taken before interest and DuPont's old liabilities; most share awards ride on how the stock does against other chip stocks.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C60facthigh confidence
Jon Kemp has been Qnity's chief executive since the spin-off on 1 November 2025, after running DuPont's Electronics and Industrial segment from August 2019 and its Electronics and Communications business from 2015 to 2017. Ken Rizvi, previously chief financial officer of Synaptics, became chief financial officer on 1 October 2026.
current state · 2026-10-01written 2026-10-04
C55facthigh confidence
Qnity's chief financial officer seat was interim from January 2026, when Matt Harbaugh stepped down for health reasons two months after the spin, until Ken Rizvi, appointed in August 2026, took office on 1 October 2026.
  1. 2026-10-04editedthe seat stayed interim until Rizvi took office on 1 October 2026, not until his appointment in August; the 21 August 2026 8-K (S17) gives the effective date
historical · January to October 2026written 2026-09-09
C61facthigh confidence
At 10 March 2026 Qnity's 14 directors and executive officers as a group beneficially owned 312,229 shares, 232,642 of them rights to acquire, under 1% of the 209,582,425 outstanding; Jon Kemp held 188,933, the largest insider; Vanguard at 13.1% and BlackRock at 6.9% were the only holders above 5%.
current state · 2026-03-10written 2026-10-04
C62facthigh confidence
Qnity's 2026 annual cash incentive pays 40% on organic sales, 40% on adjusted operating EBITDA and 20% on culture and transformation; 2026 long-term awards are 60% PSUs on three-year relative shareholder return and adjusted operating EBITDA and 40% RSUs; one-time Transformation Awards in December 2025, $12.0 million at grant for Kemp, are half options and half PSUs on relative return against the S&P 1500 semiconductor group to 2 December 2028.
against this
  • No financial metric in either plan is struck below adjusted operating EBITDA, so the interest, indirect legacy costs and transformation charges that separate it from GAAP earnings (C25, C38) cost the plan nothing.
  • Relative shareholder return does reach the shareholder's result, and it carries most of the CEO's one-time award.
current state · 2026-04-08written 2026-10-04
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

A chip factory approves each material for each step at each generation of chip. Changing supplier means re-proving it on a line whose output is worth far more than the material, to save very little. A rival, MKS, tells its own shareholders that new customers take a long time to approve a supplier.

So customers stay: the average top-ten relationship exceeds thirty years, management says. Each new chip generation is a fresh contest, and advanced chips, about 40% of the portfolio, grew more than 20% in the June quarter.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C04facthigh confidence
MKS tells its own shareholders that prospective customers typically require lengthy qualification periods before placing volume orders with a new supplier of the same plating chemistry.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-09
C05management claimmedium confidence
The average length of Qnity's relationship with its top ten customers exceeds thirty years.
against this
  • The company publishes no supporting statistic - no retention rate, no win rate, no count of processes of record - and neither do its three listed rivals, so a thirty-year average is an assertion nobody outside can check.
  • A long average relationship is also what a concentrated industry looks like regardless of loyalty: there are only four leading-edge logic and memory buyers, so a supplier that survives at all will have a long relationship with each of them.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-09
C22management claimlow confidence
Advanced nodes were about 40% of Qnity's portfolio exiting the first half of 2026 and grew more than 20% in the second quarter, against an Investor Day expectation an analyst put at roughly 7% and management did not dispute.
against this
  • There is no filed definition of an advanced node anywhere in Qnity's filings and no filed split on that basis, so both the 40% share and the 20% growth rate rest entirely on management's characterisation of its own mix.
  • The comparison against a 7% Investor Day expectation is management's own account of what it told investors ten months earlier, and the Investor Day materials are not in the filings; a beat against a target you also describe is the weakest form of evidence.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-09

The threat

China is 33% of sales, and Chinese factories can buy polishing slurry from a domestic maker, Anji, which Entegris lists beside Qnity as a rival. Qnity itself names five competitors: Entegris, Merck KGaA, Resonac, Element Solutions and MKS.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C07facthigh confidence
China was $1,570 million of Qnity's $4,754 million of 2025 net sales, about 33%, and $857 million of Interconnect Solutions' $2,112 million, about 41%.
historical · FY2025written 2026-09-09
C06facthigh confidence
Entegris's own annual report names Qnity Electronics and Anji Microelectronics (Shanghai) together in the competitor column for its Materials Solutions segment, the segment that sells CMP slurries and pads.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-09
C03facthigh confidence
Qnity's most notable competitors, named in its own annual report, are Entegris, Merck KGaA, Resonac, Element Solutions and MKS Instruments.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-09

The rivals: ENTG, MKSI, ESI, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalHow far alongPriced against it
Anji Microelectronics (Shanghai) Co., LtdPriced against it: Listed abroadOn saleListed abroad
ENTGEntegris Materials SolutionsPriced against it: No usable figureOn saleNo usable figure
MKSIMKS Materials Solutions Division, the former AtotechPriced against it: YesOn saleYes
The Japanese resist houses at the EUV layer - JSR, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo, Shin-EtsuPriced against it: Listed abroadOn saleListed abroad
ESIElement SolutionsPriced against it: YesOn saleYes
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

The world spent $73.2B on chip materials in 2025: $45.8B in making chips and $27.4B in packaging them. Qnity's $4.75B is a slice of both.

What matters more is how much material each chip uses. Advanced chips take three to five times more per wafer than older ones, management says, and advanced factory capacity is growing about 14% a year to 2028, twice the pace of all capacity.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C09factmedium confidence
The global semiconductor materials market was $73.2 billion in 2025, up 6.8%, split into $45.8 billion of wafer fabrication materials and $27.4 billion of packaging materials.
historical · calendar 2025written 2026-09-09
C02facthigh confidence
Qnity reports two segments: Semiconductor Technologies, $2,642 million of 2025 net sales, and Interconnect Solutions, $2,112 million.
historical · FY2025written 2026-09-09
C11management claimlow confidence
Advanced nodes require three to five times more processing material per wafer than legacy nodes.
against this
  • The three-to-five-times multiplier appears nowhere outside Qnity's own annual report. SEMI publishes materials spend and wafer area but no intensity ratio by node, and none of Entegris, MKS or Element Solutions states one.
  • The range itself is wide enough to be unfalsifiable: a factor of three and a factor of five imply very different prizes, and the filing gives no basis for choosing within it.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-09
C10factmedium confidence
SEMI puts advanced process capacity at 7 nanometres and below at 982 thousand wafers a month in 2025, growing about 14% a year to 1.4 million by 2028, against 7% for total capacity.
forward · 2025 to 2028written 2026-09-09
04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Steady

Sales grew 15% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 9.7% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2023: $4.04BDec 2024: $4.33BDec 2025: $4.75B12 mo to Jun 2026: $5.21B$4.04B$5.21B
Is it profitable?Healthy

It keeps 12% of sales as profit.

Dec 2023: 13%Dec 2024: 17%Dec 2025: 15%12 mo to Jun 2026: 12%13%12%
What does it keep on each sale?Solid

It keeps 46¢ of each sales dollar after making what it sells, and spends 13¢ of it on selling and admin, its biggest running cost.

Dec 2023: 43%Dec 2024: 46%Dec 2025: 46%12 mo to Jun 2026: 46%43%46%
Does it earn good returns?Low

Shareholders' money earned 6.8% a year.

Dec 2023: 4.8%Dec 2024: 6.6%Dec 2025: 8.2%12 mo to Jun 2026: 6.8%4.8%6.8%
Is it making cash?Strong

It turned 16% of sales into free cash, $825M over the last twelve months.

Dec 2023: $651MDec 2024: $861MDec 2025: $988M12 mo to Jun 2026: $825M$651M$825M
Is the balance sheet safe?Heavy debt

It owes $3.06B more than the cash it holds, about 2.6 years of the cash its operations bring in.

Dec 2024: $166MDec 2025: −$3.11B12 mo to Jun 2026: −$3.06B$166M−$3.06B
Are shares being diluted?Stable

The share count barely moved in 2.5 years, and pay in shares costs 0.7% of sales.

Dec 2023: 209MDec 2024: 209MDec 2025: 210M12 mo to Jun 2026: 210M209M210M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$4.04B$4.33B$4.75B$5.21B
Sales growth-+7.4%+9.7%+15%
Profit
Gross margin43%46%46%46%
Net margin13%17%15%12%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development7.5%7.2%7.4%7.2%
Selling, general and admin13%14%13%13%
Pay in shares0.3%0.3%0.4%0.7%
Capital spending5.7%4.6%6.0%6.6%
Cash
Cash from operations$882M$1.06B$1.27B$1.17B
Free cash flow$651M$861M$988M$825M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments-$166M$915M$961M
Debt-$0$4.03B$4.02B
Net cash-$166M−$3.11B−$3.06B
Returns and shares
Shares (diluted)209M209M210M210M

What growth costs

Growing has not yet made Qnity more profitable on its operating costs: research, selling and office costs rise about as fast as sales. The gain came earlier, in what the products cost to make. Spending on new plants and on pay in shares is rising faster than sales.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C64facthigh confidence
Per sales dollar, Qnity's research and development ran 7.5 cents in 2023, 7.2 in 2024, 7.4 in 2025 and 7.2 in the four quarters to June 2026; selling, general and administrative 13.2, 13.9, 13.0 and 13.4; stock pay 0.3, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.7; capital spending 5.7, 4.6, 6.0 and 6.6; and cost of sales 56.5, 54.0, 53.8 and 53.8.
against this

The years before November 2025 carry DuPont's allocated overheads rather than a standalone company's, which the January 2026 reconciliation puts at about $96 million a year more (C28), so the ratios either side of the spin are struck on different cost bases.

historical · FY2023 to the four quarters to June 2026written 2026-10-04
C15facthigh confidence
Qnity spent $354 million on research and development in 2025, 7% of net sales, up from $314 million in 2024.
historical · FY2025written 2026-09-09

The last report (4 Aug)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

22%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
8.7%
Growth from the quarter before
against 10.5% the quarter before that

In the quarter ended June 30, 2026 the circuit-board and packaging business grew 28% and chip materials 17%, and management raised its sales forecast for the year a second time, to $5.55B to $5.65B.

The shareholder's line told another story. First-half net income fell from $381M to $275M as $122M of new interest arrived. The headline, adjusted earnings per share up 53% in the quarter, is measured against a prior year already cut for those costs. Struck the same way both years, first-half adjusted earnings were $476M against $478M.

What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the operating business is as good as advertised, with fast growth and a raised forecast. It also showed shareholders' earnings shrinking as new debt interest arrived. That is why the view is Neutral: the price leaves no room for those costs.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $1.19 against $1.07 expected; $0.59 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C20facthigh confidence
Interconnect Solutions grew organic sales 28% in the second quarter of 2026 against Semiconductor Technologies' 17%, and its adjusted operating EBITDA margin rose 290 basis points while Semiconductor Technologies' fell.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-09
C57facthigh confidence
Qnity raised 2026 guidance twice, from net sales of $5.225-5.375 billion in May to $5.55-5.65 billion in August, and adjusted EPS from $3.80-4.14 to $4.40-4.60.
historical · May to August 2026written 2026-09-09
C25facthigh confidence
In the first half of 2026 Qnity's net sales rose 20% while net income available for common stockholders fell 28%, from $381 million to $275 million, and diluted EPS fell from $1.82 to $1.31.
historical · six months ended 30 June 2026written 2026-09-09
C26facthigh confidence
Qnity's interest expense was $122 million in the first half of 2026 against zero in the first half of 2025, because the debt was raised in August and October 2025.
historical · six months ended 30 June 2026written 2026-09-09
C30inferencehigh confidence
Qnity's headline of adjusted EPS up 53% in the second quarter and 35% guided for the full year is struck against an Adjusted Pro Forma prior-year base that has been reduced by the interest and standalone costs of the spin-off.
derivedThe Q2 2026 release's own reconciliation table shows Adjusted Earnings of $250 million against $230 million, +8.7%, and then subtracts $67 million of pro forma adjustments from the prior year to reach Adjusted Pro Forma Earnings of $163 million, from which $250 million is +53%. Footnotes 7 to 9 identify $61 million of that $67 million as after-tax incremental interest.
against this
  • Comparing a standalone company against a pro forma standalone prior year is the conventional and arguably the correct presentation for a first full year after a spin-off, and the release states the basis in a footnote on the first page rather than burying it.
  • The GAAP comparison is printed immediately beside it in the same summary table - GAAP EPS $0.59 against $0.90, down 34% - so both readings are on the same page and neither is concealed.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-09-09
C29facthigh confidence
On the company's own Adjusted Earnings measure, struck the same way in both years, first-half 2026 earnings were $476 million against $478 million a year earlier - down $2 million.
against this
  • The prior-year Adjusted Earnings figure of $478 million is not the number a standalone shareholder could have earned, because the business did not then carry the debt or the standalone cost base. Management's Adjusted Pro Forma comparison of $476 million against $333 million is the like-for-like operating comparison, and on that basis earnings did rise 43%.
  • Adjusted Operating EBITDA, which is unaffected by the capital structure, rose from $709 million to $842 million on the same non-pro-forma basis, so the operating business improved even where the earnings line did not.
historical · six months ended 30 June 2026written 2026-09-09
What management did with the money

The $4.1B it borrowed before the spin-off went to DuPont, leaving $4.02B of debt against $961M of cash. Since then it has spent $50M buying back shares and $34M on dividends, holding the share count roughly flat.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C41factmedium confidence
The proceeds of Qnity's $4.1 billion of new debt went to DuPont: 2025 financing cash outflow of $248 million comprised the debt issuance fully offset by an increase in net transfers to the parent.
historical · FY2025written 2026-09-09
C40facthigh confidence
Qnity carried $4,020 million of debt against $961 million of cash at 30 June 2026 - about two times adjusted operating EBITDA net - with the term loan amortising $24 million a year and no substantial maturity before 2032.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-09
C46facthigh confidence
Qnity's share count fell from 209,479,173 at 31 December 2025 to 209,334,927 at 30 June 2026, with $50 million of buybacks against $25 million of stock-based compensation and $34 million of dividends paid.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-09
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Full. Fair for the business itself, but the price leaves no room for the old DuPont liabilities and one-off charges that come out of profit before it reaches shareholders.

Share price
$123.28
close,
Company value for each $1 of operating profit
26.5
rivals' middle 28.6

The gap between the two profits is what to watch. First-half adjusted earnings of $2.26 a share leave out 95 cents of charges. One of them, Qnity's share of DuPont's old running costs, jumped from $3M in the first quarter to $42M in the second, and nothing filed explains why.

The September-quarter results on 17 November show where it settles. The forecast also implies a flat or weaker December quarter.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C31estimatehigh confidence
Qnity's first-half 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.26 excludes $0.95 per share of charges taken in that half - 42% of the adjusted figure - against GAAP diluted EPS of $1.31.
derivedAdjusted Pro Forma EPS of $2.26 less GAAP diluted EPS of $1.31, both from the same reconciliation table in the Q2 2026 release; $0.95 divided by $2.26 is 42%.
against this
  • Roughly half of the excluded amount is amortisation of intangibles - $102 million in the half - which is non-cash and arises from purchase accounting on acquisitions DuPont made, not from anything Qnity is spending. On a filed schedule it falls from $199 million in 2026 to $89 million in 2030, so the gap narrows mechanically without anything improving.
  • The transformation and integration charges inside it, $70 million in the half of which $48 million is information-technology independence, end when the migration completes; management says about two thirds of sites move to Qnity's own systems by the end of 2026.
historical · six months ended 30 June 2026written 2026-09-09
C38facthigh confidence
Qnity's indirect legacy costs, its share of the DuPont allocation, were $42 million in the second quarter of 2026 against $45 million for the whole first half, and are excluded from both adjusted operating EBITDA and adjusted earnings.
historical · Q2 2026 and six months ended 30 June 2026written 2026-09-09
C52estimatemedium confidence
Qnity's guidance midpoint implies second-half sales of about $2.86 billion against $2.74 billion in the first half, and with the third quarter guided up only low single digits sequentially the fourth quarter is implied flat to down.
derivedFull-year guidance midpoint of $5.60 billion less first-half net sales of $2,744 million gives $2,856 million. Third-quarter sales at 2% above the second quarter's $1,429 million is about $1,458 million, leaving about $1,398 million for the fourth quarter, 4% below the third. At the top of the range, $5.65 billion, the fourth quarter is still about level with the third.
against this
  • Management gave a business reason on the call: a seasonal consumer-electronics peak in the third quarter that unwinds in the fourth, plus customer inventory control in the fourth quarter, both of which it describes as its normal pattern.
  • The third quarter of 2025 also carried about $40 million of sales pulled forward ahead of a pre-spin systems go-live, which raises the prior-year base rather than lowering the current outlook.
forward · second half of 2026written 2026-09-09
How we read the multiple

Debt included, buyers pay about 26.5 times Qnity's yearly operating profit, the profit from its business before interest and tax. Its rivals Element Solutions and MKS cost 27.2 and 30.0 times. For the business, that is fair.

The shares cost more: about 44 times last year's reported profit, and 27 times the forecast for the company's own 'adjusted' profit, which leaves out charges worth about two-fifths of it this year.

So the price assumes those charges stop and the old liabilities stay small.

Against its own history. Dearer than its own short record on every measure, most of all on earnings, which the spin-off's interest and old DuPont costs have shrunk.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C48facthigh confidence
At $123.28 Qnity's enterprise value of about $28.9 billion is 26.5 times trailing operating profit, against 27.2 times for Element Solutions and 30.0 times for MKS in its own filed competitor cohort.
current state · 2026-09-09written 2026-09-09
C49factmedium confidence
Qnity's trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 44 sits below the median of its filed competitor cohort, and its price to free cash flow is the lowest in that cohort.
against this
  • Two of the four quarters in that trailing free cash flow figure - the third and fourth of 2025 - carried little or no interest expense, because the debt was only raised in August and October 2025. The trailing multiple is therefore struck on a cash figure the standalone company will not repeat.
  • The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is flattered for the same reason: trailing net income includes the pre-spin third quarter of 2025, which earned $223 million against $136 million in the most recent quarter on 12% more revenue.
current state · 2026-09-09written 2026-09-09
C31estimatehigh confidence
Qnity's first-half 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.26 excludes $0.95 per share of charges taken in that half - 42% of the adjusted figure - against GAAP diluted EPS of $1.31.
derivedAdjusted Pro Forma EPS of $2.26 less GAAP diluted EPS of $1.31, both from the same reconciliation table in the Q2 2026 release; $0.95 divided by $2.26 is 42%.
against this
  • Roughly half of the excluded amount is amortisation of intangibles - $102 million in the half - which is non-cash and arises from purchase accounting on acquisitions DuPont made, not from anything Qnity is spending. On a filed schedule it falls from $199 million in 2026 to $89 million in 2030, so the gap narrows mechanically without anything improving.
  • The transformation and integration charges inside it, $70 million in the half of which $48 million is information-technology independence, end when the migration completes; management says about two thirds of sites move to Qnity's own systems by the end of 2026.
historical · six months ended 30 June 2026written 2026-09-09
C59inferencemedium confidence
At $123.28 the price pays for the operating business at roughly what Qnity's own named rivals fetch on the operating line, and assumes the legacy allocation stays small and the transformation charges stop.
derivedEnterprise value of about $28.9 billion over trailing operating profit rebuilt from the filings as pre-tax income plus interest, about $1,090 million, gives 26.5 times - against 27.2 for Element Solutions and 30.0 for MKS in the same filed cohort. The equity is about 27 times guided adjusted EPS of $4.40-4.60, a figure that excluded $0.95 per share of first-half charges, of which the transformation and legacy halves are cash.
against this
  • Half of the excluded charges are intangible amortisation on a filed declining schedule that reaches $89 million by 2030, so the assumption that they stop is partly correct by construction rather than optimistic.
  • The cohort is two comparable members on this metric - Entegris is withheld because the vendor's operating margin does not reconcile to its filed XBRL - and a median of two names is one name's opinion, so 'roughly what its rivals fetch' is a weak comparison rather than a strong one.
current state · 2026-09-09written 2026-09-09
Priced against its rivals

The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of operating profit, cheapest first:

TickerCompanycompany value for each $1 of operating profit
QQnity Electronics26.5×
ESIElement Solutions27.2×
MKSIMKS30.0×
ENTGEntegris held outnot priced

The middle of the other 2 is 28.6. Qnity Electronics, Inc. is cheapest of 3.

Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.

The cheapest of its named rivals on operating profit, but by too little to mean anything. On this measure it is priced like the group.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Merck KGaA (EMD Electronics), Resonac Holdings Corporation.

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

A pure bet on AI chip materials: fast growth, high margins, and adjusted earnings per share up 35% this year.

We believe

The operating business is as good as advertised. The shareholder's claim on it is two-fifths thinner than the headline earnings say.

All four covering analysts rate it a buy, and none of eight questions on the June call touched the DuPont liabilities or the gap between adjusted and reported earnings.

The gap can close on its own: the write-down of acquired assets falls from $199M this year to $89M by 2030, and the separation work ends. If DuPont's old costs stay near $45M a half, we are too cautious.

What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C50factmedium confidence
Four of four analysts covering Qnity rate it Buy, short interest is 2.0% of float at the 14 August 2026 settlement and fell 15% from the prior settlement, and days to cover is 2.4.
current state · 2026-08-14written 2026-09-09
C51facthigh confidence
Eight analyst exchanges on the second-quarter 2026 call covered sequential guidance, margins, capacity, end-market mix, advanced nodes, the wafer-area benchmark, capital allocation and 2027; none raised the DuPont indemnification, the 44% share, the Series A Preferred trust or the gap between adjusted and GAAP earnings.
historical · the call held 4 August 2026written 2026-09-09
C45facthigh confidence
Qnity's intangible amortisation is on a declining filed schedule - $199 million in 2026, $169 million in 2027, $143 million in 2028, $109 million in 2029 and $89 million in 2030.
forward · FY2026 to FY2030written 2026-09-09
C32facthigh confidence
Qnity's transformation, integration and other charges were $70 million in the first half of 2026 against $19 million a year earlier, of which about $48 million was information-technology independence work.
historical · six months ended 30 June 2026written 2026-09-09
C38facthigh confidence
Qnity's indirect legacy costs, its share of the DuPont allocation, were $42 million in the second quarter of 2026 against $45 million for the whole first half, and are excluded from both adjusted operating EBITDA and adjusted earnings.
historical · Q2 2026 and six months ended 30 June 2026written 2026-09-09
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • Uncapped old liabilities. Qnity pays 44% of DuPont's old pollution and closed-business liabilities; the amount it has set aside rose from $190M to $253M in six months.
  • No say over the cases. DuPont alone decides how to defend and settle them, and a share held in trust makes that permanent.
  • China. A third of sales, with domestic suppliers such as Anji competing for the same factory steps.
  • Prices drifting down. Price and product mix have fallen in every year Qnity reports, so growth rests on volume.
  • Tied hands until 2027. Tax rules from the spin-off limit acquisitions, share sales and asset sales until November 2027.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C34facthigh confidence
Qnity and DuPont agreed on 2 December 2025 that the Applicable Qnity Percentage is 44%, the uncapped share of DuPont's legacy PFAS and discontinued-business liabilities that Qnity pays or indemnifies.
current state · 2025-12-02written 2026-09-09
C37facthigh confidence
Qnity's accrued indemnification liabilities for those legacy matters rose from $190 million at 31 December 2025 to $253 million at 30 June 2026, with reasonably possible exposure of about $100 million above the accrual.
against this
  • Part of the increase is mechanical rather than deteriorating: DuPont's recorded liability for future Qualified Spend under the Memorandum of Understanding rose from $185 million to $217 million as spend was incurred, and Qnity's 44% moved with it.
  • The Memorandum of Understanding is capped in aggregate at $4 billion of Qualified Spend, of which DuPont bears about $1.4 billion and has already borne roughly $745 million, so this particular obligation has a stated ceiling even though the wider indemnity does not.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-09
C35facthigh confidence
Qnity has irrevocably granted DuPont sole and exclusive authority to prosecute, manage, defend, settle and dispose of all matters relating to the liabilities Qnity pays 44% of, and DuPont may require Qnity to remit its share directly to the third party.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-09
C36facthigh confidence
One share of Qnity Series A Preferred Stock is held by a noncharitable purpose trust that is prohibited from voting for any change to DuPont's authority, and Qnity says it expects and intends that limitation on its board to be perpetual.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-09
C07facthigh confidence
China was $1,570 million of Qnity's $4,754 million of 2025 net sales, about 33%, and $857 million of Interconnect Solutions' $2,112 million, about 41%.
historical · FY2025written 2026-09-09
C06facthigh confidence
Entegris's own annual report names Qnity Electronics and Anji Microelectronics (Shanghai) together in the competitor column for its Materials Solutions segment, the segment that sells CMP slurries and pads.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-09
C19factmedium confidence
Local price and product mix has fallen in every year Qnity reports: down 1% in 2025, 2% in 2024, and down again in each segment, while volume rose 11% and 10%.
historical · FY2023 to H1 2026written 2026-09-09
C47facthigh confidence
Qnity agreed to restrictions for two years after the spin-off on acquisitions, mergers, stock issuance and asset sales to preserve the tax-free treatment, and must indemnify DuPont for the tax if those are breached.
forward · to November 2027written 2026-09-09
What we still do not know
  • Why Qnity's share of DuPont's old running costs rose from $3M to $42M in a quarter, and where it settles.
  • What the uncapped liabilities will cost in the end. At June the company saw about $100M of reasonably possible exposure above what it had set aside.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C38facthigh confidence
Qnity's indirect legacy costs, its share of the DuPont allocation, were $42 million in the second quarter of 2026 against $45 million for the whole first half, and are excluded from both adjusted operating EBITDA and adjusted earnings.
historical · Q2 2026 and six months ended 30 June 2026written 2026-09-09
C37facthigh confidence
Qnity's accrued indemnification liabilities for those legacy matters rose from $190 million at 31 December 2025 to $253 million at 30 June 2026, with reasonably possible exposure of about $100 million above the accrual.
against this
  • Part of the increase is mechanical rather than deteriorating: DuPont's recorded liability for future Qualified Spend under the Memorandum of Understanding rose from $185 million to $217 million as spend was incurred, and Qnity's 44% moved with it.
  • The Memorandum of Understanding is capped in aggregate at $4 billion of Qualified Spend, of which DuPont bears about $1.4 billion and has already borne roughly $745 million, so this particular obligation has a stated ceiling even though the wider indemnity does not.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-09-09

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveThe reported and adjusted figures converge

    It needs all of:

    • ○The adjusted profit margin holds in the high twenties as volumes rise, and the gap between adjusted and reported earnings narrows.checked at the next results, due by 17 Nov
    • ○The circuit-board business grows at least as fast as chip materials, with price and mix falling no more than 3% a year.checked at the next results, due by 17 Nov
  2. Neutral→UnattractiveThe indemnities or China turn

    It needs any of:

    • ○What Qnity has set aside for DuPont's old liabilities passes $500M.checked at the next results, due by 17 Nov
    • ○China falls below a quarter of sales because Qnity loses share there, not because other regions grow faster.checked at the next results, due by 17 Nov
We would also be wrong if
  • The circuit-board business grows more slowly than chip materials for two quarters running.
  • The adjusted profit margin falls below the high twenties while volumes are still rising.

What is coming

  • November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether GAAP earnings per share grow for the first time since the spin, where indirect legacy costs settle, and whether fourth-quarter guidance implies a sequential decline.
Every dated event ahead
  • November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether GAAP earnings per share grow for the first time since the spin, where indirect legacy costs settle, and whether fourth-quarter guidance implies a sequential decline.
  • February 2027 Q4 2026 results, FY2026 10-K and 2027 guidance: Full-year sales against the raised $5.55-5.65B range, the year-end legacy accrual against $253M, and whether 2027 guidance keeps the adjusted framing.
  • April 2027 2027 proxy statement: The first bonus paid on Qnity's own plan, against which organic sales and adjusted EBITDA goals, and whether any GAAP or cash metric is added.
  • November 2027 Tax-free spin restrictions lapse: Whether management turns to acquisitions or share issuance once allowed, the first capital allocation decisions that are wholly its own.
Since we wrote this
Written
9 Sep
Price the thesis read
$123.28
8 Sep
  • 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
  • 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
  • 24 SepNewsNorth Carolina's PFAS claims settled inside the amount Qnity had already set aside. View heldDuPont, Chemours and Corteva settled North Carolina's PFAS claims, and Qnity's share did not move.
  • 9 SepThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionThe operating business grew a fifth in the first half while the shareholder's earnings fell, weighed down by the interest and DuPont liabilities the spin-off attached.

Sources 18

Where this came from

Sources - 18

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-26
    Item 1 business and product lines, the named competitor list, customer concentration, the geographic split including China at a third of sales, the segment tables, the debt terms and schedule, the amortisation schedule, and Note 15 on the DuPont indemnification, the 44% Applicable Qnity Percentage and the Series A Preferred trust
    backsC01C02C03C05C07C11C12C13C14C15C17C19C26C34C35C36C37C39C40C41C43C45C47C63C64
  2. S02primarycompany filing2026-08-04
    the statements of operations showing interest expense against a year with none, the balance sheet, the indemnification liabilities at 30 June 2026, the segment reconciliation and the significant-items split by segment
    backsC18C24C25C26C32C37C38C40C42C43C44C46C49C63C64C65
  3. S03primarycompany filing2026-08-04
    the full non-GAAP reconciliations, both the Adjusted Earnings and the Adjusted Pro Forma Earnings lines for each year, the adjusted free cash flow bridge, and the raised full-year 2026 guidance
    backsC19C20C23C29C53C57
  4. S04primarytranscript2026-08-04
    Qnity second quarter 2026 earnings call, 4 August 2026
    management's stated figures with no filed home - fab utilisation by device type, advanced-node share of portfolio, segment margin ranges, the MSI and PCB growth expectations, the $600 million of capacity investment since 2022; and eight analyst exchanges, none of which touched the legacy indemnification or the GAAP-to-adjusted gap. Note that the 7% Investor Day figure is the analyst Frank Mitsch's phrasing in his question, which management did not dispute rather than stating itself; the 20% advanced-node growth is management's own prepared remark
    EUV is important, but not so much in the photoresist layer, but there's a lot of ancillary layers around the photoresist that are really important. ... we talked about at our Investor Day migrating towards getting to be the 50% of -- 45% to 50% of our portfolio would be driven by advanced nodes. And at the track record and the pace that we're on, we'll probably get there early. I think we're kind of exiting here the first half of the year kind of right at 40%. ... our advanced nodes portfolio grew more than 20% during the second quarter. ... I recall at the Investor Day, your expectation was a growth of -- steady growth of around 7% for advanced nodes.
    backsC16C21C22C40C51C54
  5. S05primarycompany filing2026-01-16
    the carve-out against pro forma reconciliation quantifying the standalone burden - net income of $724M carve-out against $432M pro forma for 2024 - the ~$250M annualised interest figure and the ~$96 million of recurring standalone public-company costs
    backsC27C28C55
  6. S06primarycompany filing2026-02-11
    a direct rival's own description of the CMP slurry business, and its Materials Solutions competitor column, which names Qnity Electronics and Anji Microelectronics (Shanghai) side by side
    backsC06
  7. S07primarycompany filing2026-02-24
    the Materials Solutions Division description of the competing plating chemistry, its statement that customers require lengthy qualification before ordering from a new supplier, and its naming of Qnity as a rival
    backsC04
  8. S08primarycompany filing2026-02-18
    the third named rival's own account of the wet plating and circuit-formation chemistry Qnity's Interconnect Solutions sells, and its naming of Qnity among its most significant competitors
    read, but no claim rests on it
  9. S09primaryindustry data2026-05-12
    the size of the pond, split into wafer fabrication materials of $45.8 billion and packaging materials of $27.4 billion, measured by the industry association rather than by any participant
    Global semiconductor materials market revenue increased 6.8% year-over-year to $73.2 billion in 2025 ... Wafer fabrication materials revenue increased 5.4% to $45.8 billion ... Packaging materials revenue grew 9.3% to $27.4 billion in 2025
    backsC09
  10. S10primaryindustry data2026-02-10
    the base unit the whole consumables market is driven by - wafer area processed - and the silicon wafer revenue that has to come out of the pond because Qnity does not make wafers
    Worldwide silicon wafer shipments in 2025 increased 5.8% to 12,973 million square inches (MSI) while wafer revenue slipped 1.2% to $11.4 billion.
    backsC08
  11. S11primaryindustry data2025-06-25
    the rate of the driver measured from outside - advanced process capacity at 7nm and below compounding about 14% a year to 2028 against 7% for total capacity
    beginning with 982 thousand wpm in 2025, representing 15% YoY growth ... a historic high of 1.4 million wpm in 2028 ... a CAGR of around 14%, double the industry average ... capacity projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from the end of 2024 through 2028
    backsC10
  12. S12primaryvendor data2026-09-09
    Research pack, frozen at content/Q/research-pack.json
    price, market capitalisation, enterprise value, the volatility bucket, the analyst split, FINRA short interest, the insider window, the filed-competitor cohort multiples and the segment split read from the filing's own XBRL instance
    backsC02C43C44C48C49C50C55
  13. S13primarycompany filing2026-08-12
    transaction code P, a genuine open-market purchase of 1,000 shares at $138.136 - read from the raw XML rather than from the pack's aggregate
    backsC56
  14. S14primarycompany filing2025-12-12
    transaction codes M then S - option exercises at $79.01 followed by same-day sales, both leaving the holder with more shares than before, not the discretionary sales the aggregate reads as
    backsC56
  15. S15primarycompany filing2026-05-12
    the first raise of 2026 guidance, and the same presentation one quarter earlier - GAAP net income down 19% and GAAP EPS down 22% printed beside Adjusted Earnings up 33%
    backsC57C58
  16. S16primarycompany filing2026-04-08
    the beneficial ownership table as of 10 March 2026, the executive officer biographies, the 2026 annual incentive and long-term incentive design, the December 2025 Transformation Awards and the stock ownership guidelines
    backsC60C61C62
  17. S17primarycompany filing2026-08-21
    Rizvi's appointment effective 1 October 2026, his record at Synaptics, Penguin Solutions, UTAC and Isola, his pay package, and Michael Goss's return to principal accounting officer
    backsC55C60
  18. S18primarycompany filing2026-10-04
    Qnity numbers card, frozen at content/Q/financials.json
    the filer's own XBRL facts for 2023 to 2025 and the four quarters to June 2026: revenue, cost of sales, R&D, SG&A, stock pay, operating cash flow and capital spending
    backsC63C64
Rendered from content/Q/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-09-09. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.