MKS
The maker of the gauges, gas valves and power supplies inside other companies' chipmaking machines, and of the chemicals that plate copper onto circuit boards and chip packages.
Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑
Growing fast, but the record restarted in 2025 after four flat years and it amplifies a cycle it does not control.
Business quality3/4 →
Copy-exact qualification is structural, but it will not price to scarcity and a named rival is attacking its largest stated position.
Financial position3/4 ↑
Leverage down a full turn to 3.0 times, no maintenance covenants, but $1.40B of convertible debt turned current against $611M of cash.
Execution record3/4 ↑
Six straight beats and a refinancing delivered ahead of plan, against an acquisition it had to impair and a past material weakness.
Per share capture2/4 ↓
The anchor rules out a 3 where a convertible sits near its conversion price. This one is 72% above it with the hedge exhausted.
Potential2/4 ↑
The upside is somebody else's capital spending plus orders not yet shipped - expected rather than committed, with no volume or term disclosed.
Risk profile3/4 →
Customer concentration is genuinely low, but 81% of revenue is international and export controls on chip equipment are a standing dependency.
Valuation2/4 ↑
The price assumes today's pace holds: 23.6 times operating profit on my $0.91B normal-year figure, and 15 times only if that pace is the floor.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Filings, both releases, the call and three competitors' own reports - but the central price claim rests on my own $5.0B revenue estimate.
The Verdict
We rate MKS neutral. It makes the gauges, gas valves and power supplies inside other companies' chipmaking machines, and the business is mixed: good products, but profit swings with the chip cycle. Spending on AI chips lifted sales, and profit jumped far faster because costs stayed flat. The price treats that jump as lasting, so it is full, not cheap: buyers pay about 30 times last year's operating profit. The view hinges on costs holding through a quarter when sales stop rising. We think the jump is fixed costs meeting a spending peak, which the chief executive says reverses on the way down.
The long caseAI chip demand is driving chipmakers to buy more factory equipment, which carries MKS parts; its profits must hold up when that spending stops rising.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C01facthigh confidence
MKS sells the vacuum, gas-delivery, power and plasma subsystems inside semiconductor process tools, the lasers and optics inside lithography, metrology and inspection tools and printed-circuit-board drilling systems, and the plating chemistry and plating machines that metallise circuit boards and chip package substrates.
C02facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $1,248M, up 28.3% on Q2 2025 and up 15.8% on Q1 2026, with Semiconductor $554M, Electronics & Packaging $381M and Specialty Industrial $313M.
C03facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 operating income was $251M, a GAAP operating margin of 20.1%, against 13.8% in Q1 2026 and 13.9% in Q2 2025 - an 85.9% rise in operating profit on a 28.3% rise in revenue.
C06inferencehigh confidence
The whole of the Q2 2026 operating margin expansion is operating costs staying flat while volume rose, not price or mix: gross margin moved from 47.0% to 47.6% and about 100 basis points of that was a tariff refund, so underlying gross margin fell.
derivedQ1 2026 to Q2 2026: revenue +$170M, gross profit +$88M, non-GAAP operating income +$85M - a 50% drop-through of incremental revenue to operating profit, of which essentially all comes from gross profit not being spent. Non-GAAP operating expenses rose $4M on $170M of revenue. Reported gross margin rose 0.6 points and management attributes about 1.0 point to discrete tariff and duty refunds, so the underlying gross margin declined by roughly 0.4 points.
against this
- Management describes it as durable - 'we expect operating expenses will grow at a much lower rate than revenue' - and guides Q3 to $280M of operating expenses on $1,350M of revenue, which would extend the pattern for at least one more quarter.
- Some of the flat cost base is deliberate under-investment being caught up later: the chief financial officer says Malaysia and Guangzhou start-up costs run 50 to 80 basis points a quarter through cost of revenues and are 'self-liquidating', so the cost line is carrying a drag that will lift.
- Mix is genuinely moving against gross margin - chemistry equipment has lower gross margin than chemistry - so the operating margin rose despite the mix, not because of it.
C25estimatemedium confidence
At $265.50 the enterprise is worth $21.5B, which is 30 times the $681M of operating profit MKS earned in the last twelve months and 40.7 times the $528M it earned in 2025. To be worth an ordinary 15 times, it has to earn about $1.43B a year and keep earning it; its best quarter ever annualises to $1.00B.
derivedEnterprise value of $21.51B from the frozen research pack at the 9 September 2026 close. Trailing operating profit is the four filed quarterly figures added up: $138M, $143M, $149M and $251M. The 2025 figure is the filer's own XBRL tag. The $1.43B is $21.51B divided by 15, where 15 times operating profit is a stated assumption about what a good cyclical industrial is worth rather than a target. The $1.00B is Q2 2026's $251M multiplied by four.
against this
- On the guided Q3 run rate the multiple is far lower: revenue of $1,350M at 47.0% gross margin less $346M of GAAP operating expenses is about $289M of operating profit, or $1.15B annualised, which puts the enterprise at 18.6 times.
- On the vendor panel's 2027 adjusted earnings of $17.50 a share the shares are at 15.2 times, which is not a demanding price for a business growing this fast.
- The trailing figure is depressed by three quarters that pre-date the ramp, so 30 times is arithmetically true and describes a company that no longer exists at that run rate.
- Adding back the $248M a year of acquisition intangible amortisation takes trailing operating profit to $929M and the multiple to 23 times - and that amortisation is a non-cash charge against a purchase already paid for.
C27factmedium confidence
The vendor's analyst panel splits 24 Buy, 3 Hold and 2 Sell with no Strong Sell, and forecasts adjusted earnings of $13.13 a share for 2026 and $17.50 for 2027 - against the $7.88 a share MKS actually reported on that basis in 2025.
C04management claimmedium confidence
The chief financial officer said Q2 2026 gross margin of 47.6% 'includes about 100 basis points of discrete items, mostly coming from the refund of tariffs and duties', and that without them gross margin 'would have been consistent with what we have in the past several quarters'.
against this
- The company does not quantify the refund in any filed document, so the 100 basis points cannot be checked against the statements - it is management's own characterisation of its own margin.
- It is also the unflattering direction, which is a point in its favour: a company inflating a margin story would not volunteer this.
The company
A chipmaking machine etches and coats a wafer inside a sealed chamber, and it only works if the pressure, the gas flow and the plasma are exactly right. MKS makes the gauges, valves and power supplies that control them, sold to the companies that build the machines.
It also sells lasers and optics for inspection tools, and the chemistry and machines that plate copper onto circuit boards and chip packages. No single rival competes with it across all of that.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C01facthigh confidence
MKS sells the vacuum, gas-delivery, power and plasma subsystems inside semiconductor process tools, the lasers and optics inside lithography, metrology and inspection tools and printed-circuit-board drilling systems, and the plating chemistry and plating machines that metallise circuit boards and chip package substrates.
C36facthigh confidence
MKS's own annual report says 'We encounter substantial competition in most of our product lines, although no single competitor competes with us across all product lines', and then names different rivals for each of its three divisions.
How it makes money
Machine builders buy MKS parts for every tool they ship, so semiconductor sales, $554M of the June quarter's $1.25B, rise and fall with spending on new chip factories, and orders can be cancelled with little penalty. On the plating side, each machine sold is meant to pull repeat sales of the chemistry it uses.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C02facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $1,248M, up 28.3% on Q2 2025 and up 15.8% on Q1 2026, with Semiconductor $554M, Electronics & Packaging $381M and Specialty Industrial $313M.
C29management claimmedium confidence
Chemistry equipment carries 6 to 9 month lead times with customer down payments, which management says gives visibility through 2027. Semiconductor lead times are short - 'that's why we always guide just a quarter out' - and MKS's annual report says orders 'may be subject to cancellation or rescheduling by the customer with limited or no penalty' and discloses no backlog figure.
sourceQ2 2026 earnings call transcript, 6 August 2026primaryForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary
against this
- The down payments are real money and are the strongest commitment evidence in the file, even though no volume, term or counterparty is disclosed for any of it.
- Short lead times cut both ways: they mean little visibility, and they also mean MKS carries less cancellation risk than a supplier holding a long book into a downturn.
C28management claimlow confidence
Chemistry revenue grew about 21% year on year in Q2 2026 excluding currency and palladium pass-through, against 43.2% for the Electronics & Packaging market as a whole - so the faster-growing half of that market is the lower-margin equipment rather than the chemistry it is meant to pull.
against this
- Management's own framing is that this is the good order of events: equipment ships first and the chemistry follows, with 24 to 30 months between an install and volume chemistry, so a quarter where equipment outruns chemistry is what the front of that cycle looks like.
- The chief executive also says 'the majority of the chemistry growth right now ... is still with previously installed capacity', meaning the 21% is not yet being helped by the equipment now shipping.
- MKS does not disclose chemistry revenue in any filed document, so the 21% cannot be checked and neither can the margin difference the argument turns on.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (Q2 2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Vacuum Solutions Division | 40.6% | Pressure, flow, gas-delivery, power and plasma subsystems built into chipmaking tools, plus service on them. |
| Materials Solutions Division | 32.1% | Plating chemistry consumed by circuit-board and chip-package makers, and the plating machines that use it. |
| Photonics Solutions Division | 27.3% | Lasers, optics and motion control for lithography and inspection tools, and laser drilling systems for circuit boards. |
Who runs it
John Lee has run MKS since 2020, after joining in 2007. He bought Atotech, wrote much of it down a year later, and has spent the time since paying down the debt it left. Ramakumar Mayampurath has run finance since 2024. Insiders own well under 1% of the company and none has bought shares on the market in the past year. The bonus pays on adjusted operating profit and on cutting debt; the share awards on adjusted earnings and on beating similar companies' shares.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C47facthigh confidence
John T.C. Lee joined MKS in 2007 from Applied Materials, was chief operating officer from 2016 and president from 2018, and has been president and chief executive since 2020. Ramakumar Mayampurath has been chief financial officer since October 2024, after three years as chief financial officer of Rogers. James Schreiner, chief operating officer from 2019 to 2022 and of the Materials Solutions Division until 2025, has been chief operating officer since August 2025.
C49facthigh confidence
MKS bought Atotech on 17 August 2022 for $16.20 in cash and 0.0552 of an MKS share per Atotech share, a total net purchase price of $5.7B funded with cash on hand and a new term loan; in 2023 it recorded $1.9B of impairments of goodwill and intangibles from Atotech and the 2019 ESI acquisition.
C48facthigh confidence
From 2023 to 2025 MKS paid $59M of dividends a year and bought back shares only once, $45M in 2025; it repaid $3,281M of borrowings against $2,377M raised, bought $167M of capped calls in 2024, and in the first half of 2026 repaid $1,378M against $1,192M raised. Diluted weighted shares rose from 55.7M in 2021 to 67.7M in 2025.
C45facthigh confidence
At 3 March 2026 the 14 directors and executive officers as a group beneficially owned 384,853 shares, about 0.6% of the 67,321,698 outstanding; the chief executive, John Lee, held 154,696, about 0.2% and the most of any insider. MKS has one class of common stock; Vanguard (11.52%), BlackRock (8.75%), Invesco (6.53%), FMR (6.02%) and Victory Capital (5.63%) were listed above 5%.
against this
- Vanguard filed on 27 March 2026 that it no longer beneficially owned any MKS shares, so the 5% list is already partly out of date.
- No insider has bought on the open market in the twelve months to September 2026 (C30).
C30factmedium confidence
Every MKS insider transaction filed in the twelve months to 9 September 2026 is a sale or a compensation award. There is no open-market purchase. The chief executive sold 10,000 shares at $302.01 on 14 August 2026, the chief operating officer sold across four days in June 2026 between $317.42 and $347.00, and a director sold 300 shares at $250.96 on 1 September 2026.
against this
- Every sale is coded S and every acquisition A, so what is absent is buying rather than what is present being unusual - routine scheduled selling by executives of an appreciated stock looks exactly like this.
- The chief executive still held 134,776 shares after the sale and the chief operating officer 19,201, so neither is exiting.
- The filings in the pack do not say whether any sale ran under a pre-arranged trading plan, which is the fact that would settle whether the timing carries information; that requires reading the Form 4 footnotes.
C46facthigh confidence
MKS's 2025 cash bonus paid 70% on non-GAAP operating income (target $750.5M, actual $814M) and 30% on adjusted net debt (target $3.31B, actual $3.29B), 135% of target in all. Performance RSUs paid 70% on one-year Adjusted EBITDA (128% earned) and 30% on three-year shareholder return against the S&P 1500 Composite Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components Index. The chief executive's 2025 grants were $6.0M performance-based and $4.0M time-based.
against this
- Nothing pays on revenue growth, return on capital or per-share results, and the profit metrics are struck before the acquisition amortisation that separates reported from adjusted earnings (C35).
- In 2024 the committee set plan-of-record performance to pay 25% of target for a muted year and restored 100% in 2025, so the payout curve moves with the cycle.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
The chipmaker, not the machine builder, picks the part. Once a production recipe is approved around a particular gauge or generator, the factory's rule of copying exactly forbids swapping it without re-approving the process. So MKS wins at the start of a machine design and keeps the slot for its life.
Outsiders back this up: 1,201 chipmaker survey responses put it in the top ten large suppliers for service. And no customer is more than 10% of sales.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C08facthigh confidence
MKS's own annual report says 'Certain of our sole or limited source supply arrangements are the result of “copy exact” requirements of our customers', and that changing a source 'could require us to redesign our products' with 'the need to requalify products with customers, particularly those with “copy exact” requirements'.
C22factmedium confidence
TechInsights' 2026 Global Semiconductor Supplier Awards, from 1,201 customer survey responses, list MKS Instruments among the Customer Service Excellence top ten large chipmaking equipment suppliers. Edwards, not MKS, won the Wafer Fab Equipment Subsystems award, and Advanced Energy does not appear.
against this
- MKS is on the list and did not win its own category, which is the qualification rather than the endorsement: the WFE Subsystems award went to Edwards, a vacuum-pump maker MKS's own competition section does not even name.
- The published list is a top-ten membership rather than a rank, so nothing here says where MKS sits within it, and the survey measures customer service and support rather than technical position or share.
- TechInsights is also the source MKS itself cites for its claim to be number one or two in 19 product categories, so it is not an origin independent of the company's own marketing use of it.
C09facthigh confidence
No MKS customer was more than 10% of net revenues in 2025, 2024 or 2023, and the top ten together were 35% of 2025 net revenues, against 32% in 2024 and 30% in 2023.
The threat
Advanced Energy's own annual report says it is chasing more share in one kind of etching, the application where MKS claims to lead. In plating chemistry, Qnity, spun out of DuPont in November 2025, sells the same product to the same buyers, and Element Solutions names MKS as its most significant competitor.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C20factmedium confidence
Advanced Energy's own annual report says it is 'targeting ... to grow our market position in targeted applications with lower market share, such as dielectric etch' - the application MKS's Q2 2026 call names as one where it has 'segment share leadership in high aspect ratio dielectric etch'.
sourceAdvanced Energy Industries Form 10-K for the year ended 31…primaryQ2 2026 earnings call transcript, 6 August 2026primary
against this
- Advanced Energy has been saying a version of this for several years and MKS's semiconductor revenue grew 13.2% in 2025 against Advanced Energy's semiconductor equipment revenue growth of 6.0%, so the attack has not shown up in the relative numbers yet.
- MKS's leadership claim is its own and unaudited; no third party publishes application-level share in radio-frequency power delivery, so neither side of this can be checked from outside.
- An independent customer survey of 1,201 responses put MKS in the 2026 top ten for customer service among large chipmaking equipment suppliers and did not list Advanced Energy at all.
C21facthigh confidence
Qnity Electronics separated from DuPont on 1 November 2025 as a listed company whose Advanced Circuit & Packaging line sells 'electroless and electrolytic plating chemistries, and final finishing' for 'advanced packaging, IC substrates, PCBs' - the Materials Solutions Division's product to its buyer. Element Solutions names MKS Instruments first among 'our most significant competitors'.
sourceQnity Electronics Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December…primaryElement Solutions Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December…primary
against this
- Both were already competing before the spin-off - Qnity's business was DuPont's electronics arm and Element Solutions has named MKS for years - so the change is focus and disclosure rather than a new entrant.
- MKS's own claim is that it is the only supplier integrating laser drilling systems, plating chemistry and plating equipment, which neither of these two does, so the overlap is on the chemistry alone rather than on the offer.
How big it could get
How big this could get
Chipmakers are forecast to spend $133B on equipment for the largest wafers in 2026, up 18%, and $151B in 2027. MKS says its parts can go into tools making up over 85% of that, but puts what it can actually sell into semiconductors at $8B. Its own semiconductor sales run at about $2.22B a year.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C13factmedium confidence
SEMI forecasts worldwide 300mm fab equipment spending up 18% to $133B in 2026 and up 14% to $151B in 2027, then $155B in 2028 and $172B in 2029, attributing the growth to 'surging AI chip demand for data centers and edge devices'.
C14management claimlow confidence
MKS says it 'address[es] over 85% of' the wafer fabrication equipment market and puts its own 2024 serviceable market at $25B - $8B semiconductor, $13B electronics and packaging, $5B specialty industrial - against roughly $6B in 2015.
sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryTerm loan B lender presentation, January 2026, Exhibit 99.1…primary
against this
- Both figures are labelled the company's own: the lender presentation footnotes the serviceable market as 'Internal Company estimates', and no outside body publishes a subsystem segmentation of fab equipment spending that could check it.
- The 85% is a coverage claim about applications touched, not a revenue claim: MKS's actual semiconductor revenue is about 1.7% of the fab equipment spend SEMI measures, so the two numbers describe very different things and only one of them is money.
- The serviceable market is stated as of 2024 while MKS's semiconductor revenue has since risen sharply, so its share of its own stated market has gone from about 19% to about 28% in two years - which means either the estimate is stale or the share gain is larger than the company claims elsewhere.
C40facthigh confidence
Semiconductor revenue was $554M in Q2 2026, which annualises to about $2.22B.
Where the growth is coming from, business by business
Where the growth is coming from
| Business | Share of revenue | Growth: last quarter | Last half-year | Last year | Share in 3 years at its half-year rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Product | 88% | +30.2% | +23.5% | +17.1% | 91% |
| Service | 12% | +15.2% | +10.7% | +10.1% | 9% |
| Whole company | 100% | +28.3% | +21.8% | +16.3% | 100% |
On the filed split through 2026-06-30, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 22% next year and 22% in year 3, against 16.2% over the last twelve months. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.
The results
The numbers
Is it growing?Steady
Sales grew 16% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 9.6% in the year to Dec 2025.
Is it profitable?Healthy
Operating margin is 16%, up from −43% in the year to Dec 2023.
Does growth pay off?Pays off
Running costs take 31¢ of each sales dollar, up from 23¢ in the year to Dec 2021.
Does it earn good returns?Low
Each dollar put into the business earns 8.8% a year after tax, down from 17% in the year to Dec 2021.
Is it making cash?Solid
It turned 10% of sales into free cash, $455M over the last twelve months.
Is the balance sheet safe?Strained
It owes $3.49B more than the cash it holds, about 5.5 years of the cash its operations bring in.
Are shares being diluted?Diluting
The share count rose 31% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 1.3% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-16. Fiscal years end in December.
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | 12 mo to Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $2.95B | $3.55B | $3.62B | $3.59B | $3.93B | $4.35B |
| Sales growth | +27% | +20% | +2.1% | −1.0% | +9.6% | +16% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Gross margin | 47% | 44% | 45% | 48% | 47% | 47% |
| Operating margin | 24% | 17% | −43% | 14% | 13% | 16% |
| Net margin | 19% | 9.4% | −51% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 10% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Research and development | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% |
| Selling, general and admin | 13% | 14% | 19% | 19% | 18% | 17% |
| Pay in shares | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| Capital spending | 2.9% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | $640M | $529M | $319M | $528M | $645M | $635M |
| Free cash flow | $553M | $365M | $232M | $410M | $497M | $455M |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | - | - | $507M | $420M | $418M | $454M |
| Debt | $834M | $5.21B | $5.05B | $4.54B | $4.20B | $3.94B |
| Net cash | - | - | −$4.54B | −$4.12B | −$3.78B | −$3.49B |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Return on capital | 17% | 7.1% | - | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% |
| Shares (diluted) | 55.7M | 59.9M | 66.8M | 67.6M | 67.7M | 72.7M |
What growth costs
Today's MKS gets more profitable as it grows: research and selling costs rise more slowly than sales, so each new dollar of sales costs less to win. Over five years those costs rose as a share of sales, but that was the chemistry business it bought, not waste. A flat year turns the effect around.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C44facthigh confidence
Per sales dollar, research and development was 7.4 cents in 2020, 6.8 in 2022, 8.0 in 2023, 7.6 in 2025 and 7.1 over the four quarters to June 2026; selling, general and administrative was 15.2, 13.8, 18.6, 18.4 and 17.3; stock pay stayed between 1.3 and 1.5 cents and capital spending rose from 2.4 in 2023 to 4.1. Acquisition amortisation is a separate line in neither.
sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2022primaryForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary
against this
- The step up in selling and admin from 2022 to 2023 is the first full year of Atotech inside the perimeter (C49), not cost drift, so the five-year comparison crosses two different companies.
- In 2023, with revenue flat, research and development rose to 8.0 cents a sales dollar, so the leverage runs both ways (C33).
C49facthigh confidence
MKS bought Atotech on 17 August 2022 for $16.20 in cash and 0.0552 of an MKS share per Atotech share, a total net purchase price of $5.7B funded with cash on hand and a new term loan; in 2023 it recorded $1.9B of impairments of goodwill and intangibles from Atotech and the 2019 ESI acquisition.
C33management claimhigh confidence
The chief executive says MKS outperforms wafer fab equipment spending in the first half of a ramp, that 'at some point, we will meet WFE just because the ramp will peak' and that 'on the downturn, it reverses'.
against this
- It is management describing its own cyclicality unprompted and unflatteringly, which is a point for its reliability rather than against it.
- The 2023 record supports it: MKS semiconductor revenue fell 28% sequentially that year, which is worse than the wafer fab equipment market fell.
The last report (5 Aug)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
28%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
15.8%
Growth from the quarter before
against 4.4% the quarter before that
20¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales
The second quarter of 2026 beat the company's own forecast on every line. Revenue grew 28.3% to $1.25B and operating profit rose 85.9%, lifting the operating margin to 20.1% from 13.9%.
The finance chief then explained where it came from. Gross margin rose only 0.6 of a point, and a tariff refund supplied about a point of that, so the underlying margin slipped. The rest was operating costs held near $275M while sales climbed $275M from a year earlier. The shares fell 7.0% the next day.
What it did to the thesisIt supported our reading rather than the market's. The profit jump came from flat costs meeting rising sales, while the underlying gross margin slipped once a tariff refund is removed. That is a spending peak, not a lasting margin change, so the view stays Neutral.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $3.30 against $2.91 expected; $2.41 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C38facthigh confidence
MKS beat the vendor panel's revenue and adjusted earnings estimates in each of the six quarters from Q1 2025 to Q2 2026, and reported Q2 2026 revenue, GAAP earnings and adjusted earnings all above the high end of its own guidance.
C02facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $1,248M, up 28.3% on Q2 2025 and up 15.8% on Q1 2026, with Semiconductor $554M, Electronics & Packaging $381M and Specialty Industrial $313M.
C03facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 operating income was $251M, a GAAP operating margin of 20.1%, against 13.8% in Q1 2026 and 13.9% in Q2 2025 - an 85.9% rise in operating profit on a 28.3% rise in revenue.
C04management claimmedium confidence
The chief financial officer said Q2 2026 gross margin of 47.6% 'includes about 100 basis points of discrete items, mostly coming from the refund of tariffs and duties', and that without them gross margin 'would have been consistent with what we have in the past several quarters'.
against this
- The company does not quantify the refund in any filed document, so the 100 basis points cannot be checked against the statements - it is management's own characterisation of its own margin.
- It is also the unflattering direction, which is a point in its favour: a company inflating a margin story would not volunteer this.
C06inferencehigh confidence
The whole of the Q2 2026 operating margin expansion is operating costs staying flat while volume rose, not price or mix: gross margin moved from 47.0% to 47.6% and about 100 basis points of that was a tariff refund, so underlying gross margin fell.
derivedQ1 2026 to Q2 2026: revenue +$170M, gross profit +$88M, non-GAAP operating income +$85M - a 50% drop-through of incremental revenue to operating profit, of which essentially all comes from gross profit not being spent. Non-GAAP operating expenses rose $4M on $170M of revenue. Reported gross margin rose 0.6 points and management attributes about 1.0 point to discrete tariff and duty refunds, so the underlying gross margin declined by roughly 0.4 points.
against this
- Management describes it as durable - 'we expect operating expenses will grow at a much lower rate than revenue' - and guides Q3 to $280M of operating expenses on $1,350M of revenue, which would extend the pattern for at least one more quarter.
- Some of the flat cost base is deliberate under-investment being caught up later: the chief financial officer says Malaysia and Guangzhou start-up costs run 50 to 80 basis points a quarter through cost of revenues and are 'self-liquidating', so the cost line is carrying a drag that will lift.
- Mix is genuinely moving against gross margin - chemistry equipment has lower gross margin than chemistry - so the operating margin rose despite the mix, not because of it.
C05facthigh confidence
Non-GAAP operating expenses were $275M in Q2 2026 against $271M in Q1 2026 and $251M in Q2 2025, while quarterly revenue rose $170M sequentially and $275M year on year.
C24factmedium confidence
The Q2 2026 results, which beat guidance on revenue, GAAP earnings and adjusted earnings and guided Q3 above the prior quarter, were followed by a 7.0% fall in the share price in the next session.
What management did with the money
It has been paying down debt, prepaying $1.27B of term loan in February and $100M in each of May and August. But it also owes $1.4B of bonds that can be swapped for shares: above $237.42 a share, about 13 cents of every further dollar of gain goes to their holders.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C18management claimhigh confidence
Management put leverage at 3.0 times trailing twelve-month adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $1.1B at the end of Q2 2026, 'down one full turn since Q2 of last year', after prepaying $1,274M of term loan in February 2026 and $100M in each of May and August 2026.
against this
- It is management's own measure on management's own definition. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation is not a filed figure, and the credit agreement version the January 2026 lender presentation used was $63M higher again than the reported one - $1,016M against $953M for the same twelve months.
- Most of the fall from 4.0 times to 3.0 times is the denominator rising with the cycle, not the numerator falling: net debt went from about $3.9B to $3.4B while trailing adjusted earnings went from roughly $0.9B to $1.1B. A cycle that turns puts the ratio back up without a dollar of debt being added.
- The 3.0 times counts the convertible notes as debt at their $1,400M principal. At 30 June 2026 the market valued them at $4,133M, because they are mostly an equity claim now - so the leverage figure is right on the indenture and understates what holders are actually owed.
C10facthigh confidence
MKS has $1,400M of 1.25% convertible notes due June 2030 with a conversion price of $154.29 a share and 9.07 million shares underlying them, hedged by capped calls whose protection stops at $237.42 a share. The share-price condition was met in Q2 2026, so they are convertible at holders' option and sit in short-term debt at 30 June 2026.
C11estimatemedium confidence
Above $237.42 a share the capped calls stop protecting and the leak grows with the price: about 13 cents of every further dollar of share-price appreciation goes to convertible holders rather than to shareholders, until the notes are settled.
derived9.07 million shares underlie the notes ($1,400M at 6.4813 shares per $1,000). The capped call pays the company the value of $237.42 minus $154.29 on each of those shares - about $754M - and no more. Above the cap the company owes the excess itself, so each further $1 of share price costs shareholders about $9.07M against roughly 67.6 million shares outstanding, which is 13.4 cents in the dollar. The company's own numbers show the same thing from the other side: the capped-call share offset it nets out of adjusted earnings per share falls from 2.4 million shares in Q2 2026 to a guided 1.8 million in Q3 2026 while GAAP diluted shares rise from 72.7 million to 73.6 million.
against this
- The company may redeem the notes for cash from 5 June 2027 if the share price holds 130% of the conversion price, which caps how long the leak runs - though redeeming still requires finding $1,400M of cash and the excess is still owed.
- The conversion rate adjusts on certain events and the cap adjusts under the capped-call terms, so both prices can move; the 10-Q says the $237.42 is 'subject to adjustments'.
- It cuts the other way below $237.42: between $154.29 and the cap the capped calls absorb the dilution entirely, so within that band shareholders lose nothing.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Full. Priced at the top of a cycle: the shares pay for profits MKS has not yet earned, and assume the cycle keeps climbing.
Share price
$265.50
close,
Company value for each $1 of operating profit
30.0
rivals' middle 27.2
The shares have fallen 40.7% from their June high, though they are still 154.1% above a year ago.
The next test is the third quarter, due 4 November. MKS has guided all of its growth to semiconductors and the packaging business flat at $385M. If operating costs stay near $280M through a flat packaging quarter, the cost discipline is real; if not, the margin was just volume.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C23facthigh confidence
MKSI closed at $265.50 on 9 September 2026 - 40.7% below its 252-day high of $447.62, set in the week of 29 June 2026, and 154.1% above where it traded a year earlier.
C15management claimhigh confidence
Q3 2026 guidance is revenue of $1,350M plus or minus $40M - Semiconductor $630M, Electronics & Packaging $385M, Specialty Industrial $335M - with gross margin 47.0%, non-GAAP operating expenses $280M, non-GAAP operating margin 26.3% and non-GAAP earnings of $3.58 a diluted share.
against this
- MKS has beaten its own guidance on revenue and adjusted earnings in each of the last six quarters, so the guide has been a floor rather than a forecast - which argues the Q3 numbers are conservative and also that they carry little information.
- The guidance is explicitly struck 'up through but not including the date of this release' on tariffs, so a tariff change after 5 August 2026 is outside it.
C16inferencehigh confidence
All of the guided Q3 2026 sequential growth is semiconductor. Semiconductor is guided up 13.7% on the quarter and Specialty Industrial up 7.0%, while Electronics & Packaging - which grew 43.2% year on year in Q2 and drove the beat - is guided up 1.0%, from $381M to $385M.
derivedQ2 2026 actuals of $554M, $381M and $313M against the Q3 guidance midpoints of $630M, $385M and $335M given on the Q2 call. Management's stated reason is flex printed-circuit-board seasonality: 'our flex market is typically down sequentially in Q3 ahead of the next design cycles, and we are coming off a very strong first half.'
against this
- The flat guide is a seasonal pattern management named in advance rather than a demand break, and the same call says chemistry equipment demand is 'easily the strongest it has ever been' with visibility through 2027.
- Electronics & Packaging is still guided up over 30% year on year in Q3, so the sequential flatness is a comparison against an unusually strong Q2 rather than a decline.
How we read the multiple
Buyers pay $21.5B for the whole company, debt included: 30 times the $681M of operating profit it earned in the last twelve months. To cost an ordinary 15 times, MKS must:
- Earn about $1.43B of operating profit a year, and keep earning it.
- Its best quarter ever, taken over a full year, comes to $1.00B.
- So the price assumes profit climbs well past anything MKS has yet earned.
Against its own history. Far dearer than its own normal, and the gap comes from a spending boom rather than a better business, so it closes if the cycle turns.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C25estimatemedium confidence
At $265.50 the enterprise is worth $21.5B, which is 30 times the $681M of operating profit MKS earned in the last twelve months and 40.7 times the $528M it earned in 2025. To be worth an ordinary 15 times, it has to earn about $1.43B a year and keep earning it; its best quarter ever annualises to $1.00B.
derivedEnterprise value of $21.51B from the frozen research pack at the 9 September 2026 close. Trailing operating profit is the four filed quarterly figures added up: $138M, $143M, $149M and $251M. The 2025 figure is the filer's own XBRL tag. The $1.43B is $21.51B divided by 15, where 15 times operating profit is a stated assumption about what a good cyclical industrial is worth rather than a target. The $1.00B is Q2 2026's $251M multiplied by four.
against this
- On the guided Q3 run rate the multiple is far lower: revenue of $1,350M at 47.0% gross margin less $346M of GAAP operating expenses is about $289M of operating profit, or $1.15B annualised, which puts the enterprise at 18.6 times.
- On the vendor panel's 2027 adjusted earnings of $17.50 a share the shares are at 15.2 times, which is not a demanding price for a business growing this fast.
- The trailing figure is depressed by three quarters that pre-date the ramp, so 30 times is arithmetically true and describes a company that no longer exists at that run rate.
- Adding back the $248M a year of acquisition intangible amortisation takes trailing operating profit to $929M and the multiple to 23 times - and that amortisation is a non-cash charge against a purchase already paid for.
C37factmedium confidence
On enterprise value against operating profit MKS sits at 30.0 times against a median of 27.2 times for the three competitors its own annual report names that could be confirmed and listed - Element Solutions at 27.2, Qnity at 26.5 and Advanced Energy at 41.3. Every member of the group is above 26 times.
against this
- Each peer matches one third of MKS and none matches the whole, so this compares a three-division company against three single-line ones - which is what MKS's own filing says would happen.
- The subject figure is struck on trailing operating profit that pre-dates the ramp, and the peers' are not obviously affected the same way, so part of the gap is timing rather than price.
- Multiples are vendor figures; the pack could only check the operating-margin line against the filings for Advanced Energy and Element Solutions, and both agreed within one percentage point.
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of operating profit, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | company value for each $1 of operating profit |
|---|---|---|
| Q | Qnity Electronics | 26.5× |
| ESI | Element Solutions | 27.2× |
| MKSI | MKS | 30.0× |
| AEIS | Advanced Energy Industries | 41.3× |
The middle of the other 3 is 27.2. MKS Inc. is 2nd dearest of 4.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
Only a little dearer than its filed rivals, and every one of them is dear, so the high price belongs to the whole group rather than this company.
Also checked and set aside: IPG Photonics (a substitute, not the same product); Lumentum Holdings (a substitute, not the same product).
Where we disagree with the market
The market believes
An artificial-intelligence compounder: most analysts rate it Buy and expect adjusted earnings a share to more than double between 2025 and 2027.
We believe
The profit jump is fixed costs meeting a spending peak, not a lasting margin change, and the price still counts on the peak.
The market is reading the headline margin. The call explained it, yet twelve analysts asked 28 questions there and not one asked what happens to costs if sales stop rising.
We would be wrong if gross margin holds near 47% into 2027 while costs stay flat, showing the leverage is built in rather than the top of a cycle.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C27factmedium confidence
The vendor's analyst panel splits 24 Buy, 3 Hold and 2 Sell with no Strong Sell, and forecasts adjusted earnings of $13.13 a share for 2026 and $17.50 for 2027 - against the $7.88 a share MKS actually reported on that basis in 2025.
C04management claimmedium confidence
The chief financial officer said Q2 2026 gross margin of 47.6% 'includes about 100 basis points of discrete items, mostly coming from the refund of tariffs and duties', and that without them gross margin 'would have been consistent with what we have in the past several quarters'.
against this
- The company does not quantify the refund in any filed document, so the 100 basis points cannot be checked against the statements - it is management's own characterisation of its own margin.
- It is also the unflattering direction, which is a point in its favour: a company inflating a margin story would not volunteer this.
C06inferencehigh confidence
The whole of the Q2 2026 operating margin expansion is operating costs staying flat while volume rose, not price or mix: gross margin moved from 47.0% to 47.6% and about 100 basis points of that was a tariff refund, so underlying gross margin fell.
derivedQ1 2026 to Q2 2026: revenue +$170M, gross profit +$88M, non-GAAP operating income +$85M - a 50% drop-through of incremental revenue to operating profit, of which essentially all comes from gross profit not being spent. Non-GAAP operating expenses rose $4M on $170M of revenue. Reported gross margin rose 0.6 points and management attributes about 1.0 point to discrete tariff and duty refunds, so the underlying gross margin declined by roughly 0.4 points.
against this
- Management describes it as durable - 'we expect operating expenses will grow at a much lower rate than revenue' - and guides Q3 to $280M of operating expenses on $1,350M of revenue, which would extend the pattern for at least one more quarter.
- Some of the flat cost base is deliberate under-investment being caught up later: the chief financial officer says Malaysia and Guangzhou start-up costs run 50 to 80 basis points a quarter through cost of revenues and are 'self-liquidating', so the cost line is carrying a drag that will lift.
- Mix is genuinely moving against gross margin - chemistry equipment has lower gross margin than chemistry - so the operating margin rose despite the mix, not because of it.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- The cycle turns. The chief executive says MKS outgrows chip spending early in an upswing and that it reverses in the downturn. Revenue fell 8.4% in 2019.
- Orders that can vanish. Semiconductor orders can be cancelled or rescheduled with little penalty, and MKS guides only one quarter ahead.
- Acquisitions on the books. Past purchases make up 51% of its assets, and a 2023 write-down pushed the operating margin to minus 42.9%.
- Selling abroad. 81% of revenue comes from outside America, concentrated in China, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Japan, with the export-control and tariff risk that carries.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C33management claimhigh confidence
The chief executive says MKS outperforms wafer fab equipment spending in the first half of a ramp, that 'at some point, we will meet WFE just because the ramp will peak' and that 'on the downturn, it reverses'.
against this
- It is management describing its own cyclicality unprompted and unflatteringly, which is a point for its reliability rather than against it.
- The 2023 record supports it: MKS semiconductor revenue fell 28% sequentially that year, which is worse than the wafer fab equipment market fell.
C32facthigh confidence
MKS revenue was $3,547M in 2022, $3,622M in 2023, $3,586M in 2024 and $3,931M in 2025 - four broadly flat years - and fell 8.4% in 2019. Its 2023 operating margin was minus 42.9% on the Atotech goodwill impairment.
C29management claimmedium confidence
Chemistry equipment carries 6 to 9 month lead times with customer down payments, which management says gives visibility through 2027. Semiconductor lead times are short - 'that's why we always guide just a quarter out' - and MKS's annual report says orders 'may be subject to cancellation or rescheduling by the customer with limited or no penalty' and discloses no backlog figure.
sourceQ2 2026 earnings call transcript, 6 August 2026primaryForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary
against this
- The down payments are real money and are the strongest commitment evidence in the file, even though no volume, term or counterparty is disclosed for any of it.
- Short lead times cut both ways: they mean little visibility, and they also mean MKS carries less cancellation risk than a supplier holding a long book into a downturn.
C35facthigh confidence
Goodwill of $2,580M and intangible assets of $2,015M make up 51% of MKS's $8,941M of total assets against $2,988M of shareholders' equity, and amortisation of those intangibles is $62M a quarter - essentially the whole gap between reported and adjusted earnings.
C42facthigh confidence
MKS's international revenue was 81% of the total in 2025, up from 75% in 2023, concentrated in China, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Japan, and 70% of its long-lived assets sat outside the United States against 59% a year earlier.
What we still do not know
- Whether operating costs stay flat once sales stop rising. Nobody on the call asked.
- Whether chemistry sales will follow the plating machines. Chemistry grew about 21%, against 43.2% for that whole business.
- Whether a customer will approve a second supplier in the etching work MKS leads, where Advanced Energy is chasing share.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C05facthigh confidence
Non-GAAP operating expenses were $275M in Q2 2026 against $271M in Q1 2026 and $251M in Q2 2025, while quarterly revenue rose $170M sequentially and $275M year on year.
C28management claimlow confidence
Chemistry revenue grew about 21% year on year in Q2 2026 excluding currency and palladium pass-through, against 43.2% for the Electronics & Packaging market as a whole - so the faster-growing half of that market is the lower-margin equipment rather than the chemistry it is meant to pull.
against this
- Management's own framing is that this is the good order of events: equipment ships first and the chemistry follows, with 24 to 30 months between an install and volume chemistry, so a quarter where equipment outruns chemistry is what the front of that cycle looks like.
- The chief executive also says 'the majority of the chemistry growth right now ... is still with previously installed capacity', meaning the 21% is not yet being helped by the equipment now shipping.
- MKS does not disclose chemistry revenue in any filed document, so the 21% cannot be checked and neither can the margin difference the argument turns on.
C20factmedium confidence
Advanced Energy's own annual report says it is 'targeting ... to grow our market position in targeted applications with lower market share, such as dielectric etch' - the application MKS's Q2 2026 call names as one where it has 'segment share leadership in high aspect ratio dielectric etch'.
sourceAdvanced Energy Industries Form 10-K for the year ended 31…primaryQ2 2026 earnings call transcript, 6 August 2026primary
against this
- Advanced Energy has been saying a version of this for several years and MKS's semiconductor revenue grew 13.2% in 2025 against Advanced Energy's semiconductor equipment revenue growth of 6.0%, so the attack has not shown up in the relative numbers yet.
- MKS's leadership claim is its own and unaudited; no third party publishes application-level share in radio-frequency power delivery, so neither side of this can be checked from outside.
- An independent customer survey of 1,201 responses put MKS in the 2026 top ten for customer service among large chipmaking equipment suppliers and did not list Advanced Energy at all.
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveThe profit reaches the level the price assumes
It needs all of:
- ○Operating profit runs near $1.43B a year, costs grow slower than sales, and gross margin stays above 46% after new-plant start-up costs end.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
- ○Chemistry sales keep growing alongside the plating machines meant to pull them.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
- Neutral→UnattractiveThe cycle or the sole-source position turns
It needs any of:
- ○The industry body SEMI cuts its 2027 chip-equipment spending forecast below the 2026 figure.watched as it happens
- ○A customer approves a second supplier for a part MKS calls its own.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
- Operating costs rise as fast as revenue for two quarters running.
What is coming
- 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether operating costs hold near the guided level while Electronics & Packaging is flat - the test of whether the margin gain is structure or volume.
Every dated event ahead
- 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether operating costs hold near the guided level while Electronics & Packaging is flat - the test of whether the margin gain is structure or volume.
- February 2027 Q4 2026 results and the FY2026 10-K: A full year of cost per sales dollar against 2025 with the new plants' start-up costs inside it, and how much more term loan was repaid.
- March 2027 2027 proxy statement: How 2026 bonuses and performance shares paid out, and whether the profit and net-debt targets were set above 2025's actuals.
- 5 June 2027 MKS may first call the convertible notes: From this date a sustained price 30% above conversion lets MKS force settlement, which would fix the dilution the capped calls no longer cover.
Since we wrote this
Written
9 Sep
Price the thesis read
$265.50
8 Sep
- 19 OctNewsMKS sells its Ophir infrared optics business for $650M cash, closing in 2027. View heldMKS agrees to sell its Ophir Optics business to TTM for $650M cash.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
- 9 SepThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten a month after a record quarter whose margin jump came from costs holding flat rather than a better business, with the shares 40.7% below their June high.
Also checked 1 time with nothing new to act on.
Sources 14
Where this came from
Sources - 14
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-02-24the three-division product descriptions, the named competitors division by division and the statement that no single competitor spans all product lines, the copy-exact passages, customer concentration, end-market and international revenue splits, research and development spend, patents, backlog language and the risk factorsbacksC01C08C09C14C29C32C36C41C42C44C48C49
- S02primarycompany filing2026-08-06the debt note in full - convertible terms, capped-call cap, the 2034 notes, the February 2026 refinancing and prepayments - the balance sheet, the earnings-per-share note with the diluted bridge, and the fair-value table showing the convertible marked at $4,133M against $1,400M carriedbacksC10C12C17C35C43C44C48C50
- S03primarycompany filing2026-08-05the end-market revenue split, the GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliations including the capped-call share adjustment, the cash flow statement, Q3 2026 guidance and the conversion-condition disclosurebacksC02C03C05C15C19C24C38C39C40
- S04primarycompany filing2026-02-17FY2025 revenue by market, the 13.4% full-year operating margin that confirms the filed $528M operating income against the vendor's $565M, and the Q1 2026 guidance the year was subsequently beaten againstbacksC26C27
- S05primarytranscript2026-08-06management's answers on the tariff refund inside the gross margin, the refusal to price to scarcity, leverage at 3.0 times, chemistry growth of 21%, lead times and down payments, the start-up cost drag, and the Q3 end-market guidance. Twelve analysts asked 28 questions, and the questions are a separate origin from the answers: none of them asked what happens to the cost base if volume stops rising
In Q2, 47.6% is what we had, what we reported. That includes about 100 basis points of discrete items. mostly coming from the refund of tariffs and duties.
backsC04C07C18C20C28C29C33C34 - S06primarycompany filing2026-01-21the company's own serviceable market estimate of $25B split three ways, the claim to 19 number one or two product positions, the pro-forma capitalisation and leverage table behind the February 2026 refinancingbacksC14
- S07primarycompany filing2026-02-13Advanced Energy Industries Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025 Advanced Energy Industriesa competitor's own statement that it is targeting share growth in dielectric etch, its competitor table naming MKS Instruments, its description of the design-win and qualification barrier from the attacker's side, and its revenue by market including the $587.3M data centre business MKS does not addressbacksC20
- S08primarycompany filing2026-02-20Qnity Electronics Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025 Qnity Electronicsconfirmation from the candidate's own filing that its Advanced Circuit & Packaging line sells the competing electroless and electrolytic plating chemistry for advanced packaging and IC substrates, and the 1 November 2025 separation date that dates the perimeterbacksC21
- S09primarycompany filing2026-02-18Element Solutions Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025 Element Solutionsthe reciprocal naming - MKS Instruments first among 'our most significant competitors' - which confirms the chemistry rivalry from both sidesbacksC21
- S10primaryindustry data2026-04-01the measured size and growth rate of the market MKS's largest division sells into, from a trade body rather than from a participant - the base of the prize and the rate behind the driver
Worldwide 300mm fab equipment spending is expected to increase 18% to $133 billion in 2026 and 14% to $151 billion in 2027 ... continue to increase 3% to $155 billion in 2028 ... another 11% to $172 billion in 2029 ... Strong growth reflects surging AI chip demand for data centers and edge devices, as well as the growing commitment to semiconductor self-sufficiency across key regions.
backsC13 - S11primaryindustry data2026-05-14an independent customer-rated scorer: MKS in the Customer Service Excellence top ten for large chipmaking equipment suppliers from 1,201 survey responses, with Edwards rather than MKS winning the Wafer Fab Equipment Subsystems award and Advanced Energy absent. Read twice under differently worded requests and reproduced both times
2026 Global Semiconductor Supplier Awards ... 1,201 survey responses ... Customer Service Excellence - Top 10 Suppliers ... Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Edwards, Kokusai Electric, Lam Research, Hitachi High-Tech, Applied Materials, EBARA, MKS Instruments ... Wafer Fab Equipment Subsystems ... Edwards
backsC22 - S12secondaryvendor data2026-09-09Research pack, frozen at content/MKSI/research-pack.jsoncontent/MKSI/research-pack.jsonprice, returns and the 252-day range; the analyst split and estimates; the filer's own XBRL annual and quarterly series; the segment split from the filing's XBRL instance; FINRA short interest across six settlements; Form 4 insider transactions by code; the measured session reaction to each news item; and the competitors:filed cohort multiplesbacksC23C24C26C27C30C31C32C37C38
- S13primarycompany filing2026-03-31beneficial ownership as of 3 March 2026, the executive officers' backgrounds and tenure, the 2025 Management Incentive Plan metrics, goals and payout, the performance-based RSU metrics and the rTSR schedule, the 2025 CEO grant valuesbacksC45C46C47
- S14primarycompany filing2023-03-14the Atotech consideration per share and the $5.7B total net purchase price and how it was funded; the 2020 to 2022 income statements, cash flows and diluted share countsbacksC44C48C49