A Minnesota maker of the switchgear, transformers and power skids that carry grid power into data centers, listed in February 2026.
Our viewAttractiveMedium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑
Revenue grew 89% in FY26, data center sales 161% against a market up about 40%; but the filed record is two years, partly acquired.
Business quality3/4 →
Share gains and orders at 3.3 times sales show an edge in delivering custom gear fast, resting on capacity in a shortage rivals are expanding.
Financial position3/4 ↑
About $501M of net debt, about 0.8 times FY27's guided profit, nothing due before 2032; the $338.9M tax receivable is a further claim.
Execution record3/4 →
Three beats in three quarters as a listed company and FY26 ahead of the IPO plan, but the record is too short to score higher.
Per share capture3/4 →
The offerings did not grow the share count, but 85% of certain tax savings go to the pre-IPO owners and acquisitions come first.
Potential2/4 ↑
FY27 sits in a $3.0B backlog yet to convert, and growth after it is expected, not signed, in a cycle others control.
Risk profile3/4 →
One concentration: 59% of sales go to data center builders, one customer is 11%, and a sponsor with 37% of the vote holds consent rights.
Valuation4/4 ↑
13.5 times FY27's guided profit pays for the year in backlog and leaves FY28 nearly free, not orders beyond the shortage.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Results, backlog and the shortage are filed or measured from outside; the lead-time edge and FY27 cover rest on management's word.
The Verdict
We rate Forgent Power Solutions attractive. It is a solid business winning share in a shortage: it builds data center power gear fast and grew sales 89% last year. After a 38% fall in three weeks, at about 13.5 times this year's expected profit before interest, tax and depreciation, the price pays for the year already in firm orders and leaves the next year's growth nearly free. The view hinges on whether orders keep coming once rivals add factories; the company will report orders only once a year. The shares fell the morning the finance chief quit; the 12 November accounts test that.
The long caseAmerica is building data centres for AI and the grid to feed them, and Forgent builds their power gear fast; orders must keep coming once rivals add factories.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C02facthigh confidence
In the year to June 2026 revenue was $1,420.1M, up 89% from $753.2M. Gross profit was $497.6M (35.0%), operating income $182.5M and net income $106.0M, of which $81.8M was attributable to Forgent's Class A holders. Adjusted EBITDA was $322.9M (22.7%) and adjusted diluted EPS $0.68.
historical · FY 2026 (year to 30 June 2026)written 2026-10-05
C04facthigh confidence
Bookings were $1,503M in the June 2026 quarter, up 375% and 3.3 times that quarter's revenue. Backlog reached $3.0B at 30 June 2026 against $850M a year earlier, and about 40% of it is Powertrain Solutions.
One quarter's bookings: the company says single orders now move a quarter, which is why it will stop reporting quarterly orders (C14).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-05
C05management claimmedium confidence
Management says every order in backlog is a firm purchase order, with no letters of intent, and that backlog covers more than 90% of FY27 revenue guidance, the rest delivering in FY28.
Cancellation terms are not disclosed, and from FY27 orders and backlog are reported only once a year (C14), so the cover cannot be checked until September 2027.
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C20inferencemedium confidence
At $24.92 the company value is about $8.09B, about 13.5 times the $600M midpoint of FY27 adjusted EBITDA guidance and the shares about 18.7 times the $1.33 adjusted EPS midpoint. Counting the $338.9M tax receivable liability as debt adds about half a turn.
derived$24.92 close on 22 October 2026 (C21) times 304.4M Class A and B shares (C17) is about $7.59B; add $598.5M of term loan less $97.5M of cash (C19) for about $8.09B of company value; divide by the $600M adjusted EBITDA and $1.33 adjusted EPS guidance midpoints (C23).
against this
On FY26's actual $322.9M the same value is about 25 times, so the price is cheap only on a year the backlog has yet to turn into sales (C24).
2026-10-23editedre-struck at the 22 October close: 13.5 times FY27's guided EBITDA, from 21.3 at $40.35
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C12facthigh confidence
Forgent's 10-K says US prices for electrical distribution equipment rose significantly as demand outgrew supply, that it and some competitors have announced plans to add capacity, and that prices could fall if the industry adds capacity faster than demand grows. Vertiv's 10-K says it has more than doubled its capacity for switchgear, busbar and integrated power solutions since late 2021.
Forgent says it can engineer a custom product in a few hours and ship one in as little as a week, using more than 200 engineers and a database of reference designs, and that making medium-voltage switchgear and dry-type transformers in-house gives it significantly shorter lead times than rivals. On the call the chief executive said it is still inside expected industry lead times for every product line.
No outside source measures Forgent's own lead times; the industry's 44-week switchgear average (C10) is the only comparison found, and Vertiv has doubled its switchgear capacity (C12).
current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-10-05
C21facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $24.92 on 22 October 2026, 62.2% below the $66.00 high and 13.0% under the $28.64 low of 14 September. They rose about 41% after the Q4 results to $40.35 on 2 October, then fell 38.2% in three weeks, 21.5% of it on 22 October on 44.4M shares traded against 7.1M the day before, a day Vertiv fell 7.8% and Eaton 6.3%. The fall came at the open: the finance chief's departure was released at 7:00am (C31) and the shares opened 14.4% lower at $27.18, then drifted to $23.16 by 3:15pm. The statement that the quarter beat its forecast came at 3:15pm, after the amendment saying the departure was no disagreement, and the shares recovered to $24.92 at the close.
2026-10-23editedre-struck at the 22 October close: the shares fell 38.2% since 2 October and 21.5% in one session
2026-10-23editedThe 15-minute bars put the fall at the open, minutes after the 7:00am release of the finance chief's departure; the claim said the day's filings did not explain it.
current state · 2026-10-22written 2026-10-05
01
The company
Power arrives at a data center at high voltage and must be switched, protected and stepped down before servers can use it. Forgent builds the gear that does this: switchgear, which holds the breakers that cut off a fault; transformers, which lower the voltage; and the panels that carry power to the racks.
Most of it is built to one project's design. A growing share ships as a whole tested system on a skid, so the site plugs in one unit instead of wiring dozens.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Forgent designs and makes electrical distribution equipment: switchgear, switchboards, panelboards, dry-type and liquid-filled transformers, power distribution units, remote power panels, electrical houses, power skids, generator connection cabinets and tap boxes. It sells them as Custom Products, as Powertrain Solutions (Custom Products integrated or skidded together as one system) and as Standard Products, and makes medium-voltage switchgear and dry-type transformers in-house on campuses in Minnesota, Texas, Maryland, California and Mexico of about 2.3 million square feet.
Custom Products were about 70% of FY26 revenue ($990.5M), Powertrain Solutions 25% ($357.4M, up 259%), Standard Products 3% and services 2%. By end market data centers were about 59%, grid 21%, industrial 10% and other 10%, and substantially all revenue came from North America.
Forgent says it can engineer a custom product in a few hours and ship one in as little as a week, using more than 200 engineers and a database of reference designs, and that making medium-voltage switchgear and dry-type transformers in-house gives it significantly shorter lead times than rivals. On the call the chief executive said it is still inside expected industry lead times for every product line.
No outside source measures Forgent's own lead times; the industry's 44-week switchgear average (C10) is the only comparison found, and Vertiv has doubled its switchgear capacity (C12).
current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-10-05
C13facthigh confidence
The 10-K names its rivals: Vertiv, Hubbell's PCX, Schneider Electric and IEM in data centers; Schneider, Eaton, Vertiv and Mission Critical Group in modular power; Hitachi Energy, Prolec GE, Hubbell's Systems Control and Eaton's Cooper Power in grid; and nVent, Hitachi Energy, Prolec GE, Eaton and WEG in industrial. It competes on lead time, ability to customise, performance, reliability and price.
Forgent is paid per order, mostly for custom gear: about 70% of sales last year, with whole skids another 25%. Data centers bought about 59%, utilities 21% and factories 10%, nearly all in North America.
Profit after making the gear was 35 cents on each dollar of sales. One customer alone was 11% of sales, and bigger system orders mean fewer, larger buyers.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C06facthigh confidence
Custom Products were about 70% of FY26 revenue ($990.5M), Powertrain Solutions 25% ($357.4M, up 259%), Standard Products 3% and services 2%. By end market data centers were about 59%, grid 21%, industrial 10% and other 10%, and substantially all revenue came from North America.
In the year to June 2026 revenue was $1,420.1M, up 89% from $753.2M. Gross profit was $497.6M (35.0%), operating income $182.5M and net income $106.0M, of which $81.8M was attributable to Forgent's Class A holders. Adjusted EBITDA was $322.9M (22.7%) and adjusted diluted EPS $0.68.
historical · FY 2026 (year to 30 June 2026)written 2026-10-05
C07facthigh confidence
One customer was about 11% of FY26 revenue and 15% of receivables; no customer passed 10% in FY25. The 10-K warns that selling more Powertrain Solutions concentrates sales in fewer, larger customers who can negotiate harder.
Switchgear, switchboards, transformers and other gear built to one project's design.
Powertrain Solutions
25.2%
Custom Products integrated into one skid or electrical house, shipped as a tested system.
Standard Products
3.0%
Common designs made in volume for basic uses.
Services
2.1%
Commissioning, repair and maintenance in the field.
Who runs it
Gary Niederpruem became chief executive in May 2025 after six years at Vertiv, a rival. Ryan Fiedler, finance chief since July 2025, stepped down on 21 October 2026, citing family time; Amy Ard, head of finance since January and once Proterra's finance chief, took over.
No executive owns shares directly; their stake is in the private-equity owner's partnerships, mostly unvested. Last year's bonus paid on sales and profit. The owner, Neos Partners, holds 37% of the vote.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C31facthigh confidence
Gary Niederpruem has been chief executive since May 2025 after six years at Vertiv, where he helped lead its carve-out and listing. Ryan Fiedler, chief financial officer since July 2025 and a Caterpillar veteran, stepped down on 21 October 2026, about five weeks after the FY26 results he guided from, and leaves the payroll on 30 October; the company gave family time as the reason and a same-day amendment said it was not a disagreement over operations, accounting or reporting, and he gets no severance but keeps his unvested profits interests. Amy Ard, executive vice president of finance since January 2026 and earlier chief financial officer of Proterra, succeeds him. No executive or director holds shares directly; the executives hold profits interests in the Neos holding partnerships worth $39.8M, $22.5M and $20.2M at the June close of $55.86, mostly unvested.
2026-10-22editedThe 21 October 8-K replaced the finance chief; the claim named Fiedler as the current one.
2026-10-22editedA same-day 8-K/A stated the departure was not a disagreement over operations, accounting or reporting; the claim carried only the unconfirmed family reason.
current state · 2026-10-22written 2026-10-05
C32facthigh confidence
The FY26 bonus paid on revenue (one third) and adjusted EBITDA (two thirds) and funded at 132% of target; from September 2026 annual awards are restricted stock units and options vesting over three years.
Forgent is an Up-C: the listed company owns units of Forgent Power Holdings LLC beside the Continuing Equity Owners. At 8 September 2026 there were 274.5M Class A and 29.9M Class B shares. Neos Partners' vehicles held 83.4M Class A and all 29.9M Class B shares, 37.2% of the vote, with the right to nominate up to five directors while above 35% and consent rights over major actions until below 25%; Coatue held 7.5% of Class A.
In a shortage, being able to deliver is the advantage. Industry switchgear took about 44 weeks to arrive in 2025, and Forgent says it can design a custom unit in hours and ship it in as little as a week, because it makes its own switchgear and transformers.
That shows up as share: its data center sales grew 161% while US data center building grew about 42%. But it lasts only as long as the shortage, and nobody outside the company measures its delivery times.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C08management claimmedium confidence
Forgent says it can engineer a custom product in a few hours and ship one in as little as a week, using more than 200 engineers and a database of reference designs, and that making medium-voltage switchgear and dry-type transformers in-house gives it significantly shorter lead times than rivals. On the call the chief executive said it is still inside expected industry lead times for every product line.
No outside source measures Forgent's own lead times; the industry's 44-week switchgear average (C10) is the only comparison found, and Vertiv has doubled its switchgear capacity (C12).
current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-10-05
C10factmedium confidence
POWER magazine reported that switchgear lead times averaged 44 weeks in Q2 2025 and that large transformers remain above two years, while distribution transformer availability has improved; some participants argue there is no real shortage and that procurement practices, not manufacturing capacity, are the bottleneck.
The same article reports distribution transformer supply improving, the first sign of the shortage easing.
current state · 2026-01-02written 2026-10-05
C11facthigh confidence
US private construction spending on data centers was $45.2B from January to August 2026 against $31.9B a year earlier, up 41.7%; August 2026 alone was $7.5B against $4.3B (not seasonally adjusted, preliminary).
historical · January to August 2026written 2026-10-05
C12facthigh confidence
Forgent's 10-K says US prices for electrical distribution equipment rose significantly as demand outgrew supply, that it and some competitors have announced plans to add capacity, and that prices could fall if the industry adds capacity faster than demand grows. Vertiv's 10-K says it has more than doubled its capacity for switchgear, busbar and integrated power solutions since late 2021.
Management estimates its data center market grew about 37% and its grid market about 10% in FY26, against its own growth of 161% and 69%, and says modular construction is about 40% of data center builds today and that third-party research expects 60% by 2030.
The third-party research is not named and the 40% cannot be checked; Census measures data center construction up 41.7% (C11), close to the company's 37%.
current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-10-05
C04facthigh confidence
Bookings were $1,503M in the June 2026 quarter, up 375% and 3.3 times that quarter's revenue. Backlog reached $3.0B at 30 June 2026 against $850M a year earlier, and about 40% of it is Powertrain Solutions.
One quarter's bookings: the company says single orders now move a quarter, which is why it will stop reporting quarterly orders (C14).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-05
The threat
Vertiv, Schneider Electric, Eaton and Hubbell sell the same gear to the same buyers, and Vertiv has more than doubled its switchgear capacity since 2021. Forgent's own annual report warns prices could fall if the industry adds capacity faster than demand grows. NVIDIA's next rack power design names Eaton, Schneider and Vertiv as partners, not Forgent.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C12facthigh confidence
Forgent's 10-K says US prices for electrical distribution equipment rose significantly as demand outgrew supply, that it and some competitors have announced plans to add capacity, and that prices could fall if the industry adds capacity faster than demand grows. Vertiv's 10-K says it has more than doubled its capacity for switchgear, busbar and integrated power solutions since late 2021.
The 10-K names its rivals: Vertiv, Hubbell's PCX, Schneider Electric and IEM in data centers; Schneider, Eaton, Vertiv and Mission Critical Group in modular power; Hitachi Energy, Prolec GE, Hubbell's Systems Control and Eaton's Cooper Power in grid; and nVent, Hitachi Energy, Prolec GE, Eaton and WEG in industrial. It competes on lead time, ability to customise, performance, reliability and price.
NVIDIA plans to feed its 2027 Kyber racks with 800 volt DC, converting 13.8 kV grid power at the data center perimeter with industrial rectifiers; its named power-system partners are Eaton, Schneider Electric and Vertiv, not Forgent.
Forgent Power Solutions (electrical distribution equipment)
On sale
Yes
NVT
nVent ElectricPriced against it: Yes
-
On sale
Yes
03
How big it could get
How big this could get
US builders spent $45.2B on data centers in the first eight months of 2026, up 41.7%. Forgent's gear is a slice of that, but nobody publishes how big a slice, so the market cannot be sized precisely.
Two trends help: about 40% of data centers are now built from factory-made modules, which management says outside research expects to reach 60% by 2030, and the US still imports most of its transformers.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C11facthigh confidence
US private construction spending on data centers was $45.2B from January to August 2026 against $31.9B a year earlier, up 41.7%; August 2026 alone was $7.5B against $4.3B (not seasonally adjusted, preliminary).
historical · January to August 2026written 2026-10-05
C16management claimmedium confidence
Management estimates its data center market grew about 37% and its grid market about 10% in FY26, against its own growth of 161% and 69%, and says modular construction is about 40% of data center builds today and that third-party research expects 60% by 2030.
The third-party research is not named and the 40% cannot be checked; Census measures data center construction up 41.7% (C11), close to the company's 37%.
current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-10-05
C29factmedium confidence
Dell'Oro measured the worldwide data center physical infrastructure market at $12B of manufacturer revenue in Q1 2026, up 28%, with North America more than half; its definition covers UPS, cooling, rack power distribution and busway, and leaves out the medium-voltage switchgear and transformers that are most of Forgent's sales.
Wood Mackenzie estimated that US power transformers and distribution transformers faced supply deficits of 30% and 10% in 2025, and that imports would supply about 80% of US power transformers and 50% of distribution transformers.
Some participants quoted by POWER argue there is no real shortage and that procurement practice is the bottleneck (C10).
current state · 2025-08-13written 2026-10-05
Who has signed
Customers have placed $3.0B of orders, which management says are all firm purchase orders, though cancellation terms are not public. A frontier AI lab placed its first direct order and a hyperscaler signed a framework agreement; neither is named, sized or dated.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C04facthigh confidence
Bookings were $1,503M in the June 2026 quarter, up 375% and 3.3 times that quarter's revenue. Backlog reached $3.0B at 30 June 2026 against $850M a year earlier, and about 40% of it is Powertrain Solutions.
One quarter's bookings: the company says single orders now move a quarter, which is why it will stop reporting quarterly orders (C14).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-05
C05management claimmedium confidence
Management says every order in backlog is a firm purchase order, with no letters of intent, and that backlog covers more than 90% of FY27 revenue guidance, the rest delivering in FY28.
Cancellation terms are not disclosed, and from FY27 orders and backlog are reported only once a year (C14), so the cover cannot be checked until September 2027.
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C15management claimmedium confidence
Management says it received its first direct order from a frontier AI lab in the June 2026 quarter and signed a master services agreement with a hyperscaler, and expects meaningful direct orders from both kinds of customer during fiscal 2027.
Neither customer, the order's size nor the agreement's terms is disclosed, and an MSA commits no volume.
current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-10-05
04
The results
The numbers
Is it growing?Fast
Sales grew 89% in the year to Jun 2026.
Is it profitable?Healthy
Operating margin is 13%.
Does growth pay off?Pays off
Running costs take 22¢ of each sales dollar, down from 27¢ in the year to Jun 2025.
Does it earn good returns?Decent
Each dollar put into the business earns 15% a year after tax, up from 6.3% in the year to Jun 2025.
How long can it keep going?Long runway
It used $6.82M of cash in the latest year, so the $97.5M it holds lasts about 14.3 years at that pace.
Is the balance sheet safe?Strained
It owes $485M more than the cash it holds, about 4.4 years of the cash its operations bring in.
Is profit turning into cash?Thin
It spent more cash than it made while reporting a profit.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-05. Fiscal years end in June.
Jun 2025
Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales
$753M
$1.42B
Sales growth
-
+89%
Profit
Gross margin
37%
35%
Operating margin
9.6%
13%
Net margin
2.0%
5.8%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Selling, general and admin
19%
19%
Pay in shares
0.2%
0.5%
Capital spending
11%
8.2%
Cash
Cash from operations
$45.0M
$109M
Free cash flow
−$39.1M
−$6.82M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments
$111M
$97.5M
Debt
$502M
$582M
Net cash
−$391M
−$485M
Returns and shares
Return on capital
6.3%
15%
What growth costs
Growth has paid so far: as sales grew 89%, operating profit rose from about 10 cents to 13 cents per dollar of sales, because overheads spread over more sales. Building factories cost more cash than the business made last year; the company expects capital spending of about 3% of sales this year.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C02facthigh confidence
In the year to June 2026 revenue was $1,420.1M, up 89% from $753.2M. Gross profit was $497.6M (35.0%), operating income $182.5M and net income $106.0M, of which $81.8M was attributable to Forgent's Class A holders. Adjusted EBITDA was $322.9M (22.7%) and adjusted diluted EPS $0.68.
Forgent guides FY27 revenue of $2.4B to $2.6B, up about 76% at the midpoint, adjusted EBITDA of $575M to $625M (about 24%) and adjusted EPS of $1.26 to $1.40; for the September 2026 quarter revenue of $445M to $465M and adjusted EBITDA of $90M to $100M, including about $10M of one-time costs. It expects more than $300M of operating cash flow and about $87M of capital spending. On 22 October it said the September quarter's revenue and adjusted EBITDA will both exceed the high end of those ranges ($465M and $100M), without giving figures, and set the report for 12 November.
The September quarter guide's $455M midpoint is below June's $461.7M (C03), and its margin of about 21% below June's 24.4%.
2026-10-22editedThe 22 October 8-K said the September quarter's revenue and adjusted EBITDA will beat the high end of the guide and moved the report date to 12 November; the claim described the guide alone.
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
The last report (15 Sep)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
94%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
21.9%
Growth from the quarter before
against 27.8% the quarter before that
20¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales
Sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 rose 94% to $461.7M, led by whole power systems, up 187%. New orders reached $1.50B, 3.3 times the quarter's sales, lifting the backlog to $3.0B from $850M a year earlier.
The company guided fiscal 2027 sales of $2.4B to $2.6B. It also said it will stop reporting orders each quarter and give a forecast for the next quarter instead.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the demand: firm orders now cover almost all of next year's plan. It also moved the question the thesis turns on, whether orders continue after next year, out of quarterly view, so the evidence for the years beyond will arrive only once a year.
The quarter in detail
19.2%Q1 26
4.6%Q2 26
27.8%Q3 26
21.9%Q4 26
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $0.25 against $0.24 expected.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C03facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter revenue was $461.7M, up 94%: Powertrain Solutions about $147M, up 187%, and Custom Products about $292M, up 73%. Net income was $66.1M and adjusted EBITDA $112.7M, a 24.4% margin.
historical · Q4 FY2026 (quarter to 30 June 2026)written 2026-10-05
C04facthigh confidence
Bookings were $1,503M in the June 2026 quarter, up 375% and 3.3 times that quarter's revenue. Backlog reached $3.0B at 30 June 2026 against $850M a year earlier, and about 40% of it is Powertrain Solutions.
One quarter's bookings: the company says single orders now move a quarter, which is why it will stop reporting quarterly orders (C14).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-05
C23management claimmedium confidence
Forgent guides FY27 revenue of $2.4B to $2.6B, up about 76% at the midpoint, adjusted EBITDA of $575M to $625M (about 24%) and adjusted EPS of $1.26 to $1.40; for the September 2026 quarter revenue of $445M to $465M and adjusted EBITDA of $90M to $100M, including about $10M of one-time costs. It expects more than $300M of operating cash flow and about $87M of capital spending. On 22 October it said the September quarter's revenue and adjusted EBITDA will both exceed the high end of those ranges ($465M and $100M), without giving figures, and set the report for 12 November.
The September quarter guide's $455M midpoint is below June's $461.7M (C03), and its margin of about 21% below June's 24.4%.
2026-10-22editedThe 22 October 8-K said the September quarter's revenue and adjusted EBITDA will beat the high end of the guide and moved the report date to 12 November; the claim described the guide alone.
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C14facthigh confidence
From fiscal 2027 Forgent will report orders and backlog only once a year and will instead guide revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the next quarter.
Every dollar the company raised in its share sales went to buy out part of its private-equity owner, so the company kept none. It built 1.8 million square feet of factories, plans $35M more in Tijuana, refinanced its loan more cheaply, and names acquisitions as its first use of cash.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C18facthigh confidence
Forgent listed on 6 February 2026 at $27 and sold more stock three times in five months: at $29.50 in March, $47.00 in June and $49.00 in July. The selling holders sold most of the shares each time, and the company used its own proceeds from the follow-ons to buy units from the Continuing Equity Owners, so it kept none; the 10-K says more follow-ons are expected.
historical · February to July 2026written 2026-10-05
C27management claimmedium confidence
Management plans a $35M, 385,000 square foot Powertrain Solutions expansion in Tijuana, online in the June 2027 quarter, lifting total revenue capacity to about $5.8B from $5.0B, and says M&A is its first use of capital as the industry consolidates.
Capacity is not demand: FY27 guidance of about $2.5B uses half of today's stated capacity.
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C19facthigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 Forgent had $97.5M of cash and $598.5M outstanding on a term loan maturing in December 2032, refinanced in June 2026 at a lower margin, with its $250M revolver undrawn. It also carried a $338.9M liability under the tax receivable agreement, which pays the pre-IPO owners 85% of certain tax savings.
In short. Cheap. The price pays for the year already ordered and leaves the next nearly free, but not for orders after the shortage ends.
Share price
$40.35
close,
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
42.4
rivals' middle 28.7
The shares rose about 41% after the annual results, then fell 38% in three weeks to $24.92, 21.5% of it on 22 October. They opened 14% lower that day, minutes after the company said its finance chief was leaving, with no severance. They sit 62% below their high.
The first test comes with the first-quarter results in mid-November 2026: sales against a forecast of $445M to $465M, and a profit margin near 21%, below the 24% of the last quarter. Its private-equity owner has sold shares in each follow-on offering since listing and expects to sell more.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C21facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $24.92 on 22 October 2026, 62.2% below the $66.00 high and 13.0% under the $28.64 low of 14 September. They rose about 41% after the Q4 results to $40.35 on 2 October, then fell 38.2% in three weeks, 21.5% of it on 22 October on 44.4M shares traded against 7.1M the day before, a day Vertiv fell 7.8% and Eaton 6.3%. The fall came at the open: the finance chief's departure was released at 7:00am (C31) and the shares opened 14.4% lower at $27.18, then drifted to $23.16 by 3:15pm. The statement that the quarter beat its forecast came at 3:15pm, after the amendment saying the departure was no disagreement, and the shares recovered to $24.92 at the close.
2026-10-23editedre-struck at the 22 October close: the shares fell 38.2% since 2 October and 21.5% in one session
2026-10-23editedThe 15-minute bars put the fall at the open, minutes after the 7:00am release of the finance chief's departure; the claim said the day's filings did not explain it.
current state · 2026-10-22written 2026-10-05
C23management claimmedium confidence
Forgent guides FY27 revenue of $2.4B to $2.6B, up about 76% at the midpoint, adjusted EBITDA of $575M to $625M (about 24%) and adjusted EPS of $1.26 to $1.40; for the September 2026 quarter revenue of $445M to $465M and adjusted EBITDA of $90M to $100M, including about $10M of one-time costs. It expects more than $300M of operating cash flow and about $87M of capital spending. On 22 October it said the September quarter's revenue and adjusted EBITDA will both exceed the high end of those ranges ($465M and $100M), without giving figures, and set the report for 12 November.
The September quarter guide's $455M midpoint is below June's $461.7M (C03), and its margin of about 21% below June's 24.4%.
2026-10-22editedThe 22 October 8-K said the September quarter's revenue and adjusted EBITDA will beat the high end of the guide and moved the report date to 12 November; the claim described the guide alone.
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C14facthigh confidence
From fiscal 2027 Forgent will report orders and backlog only once a year and will instead guide revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the next quarter.
Forgent listed on 6 February 2026 at $27 and sold more stock three times in five months: at $29.50 in March, $47.00 in June and $49.00 in July. The selling holders sold most of the shares each time, and the company used its own proceeds from the follow-ons to buy units from the Continuing Equity Owners, so it kept none; the 10-K says more follow-ons are expected.
historical · February to July 2026written 2026-10-05
C31facthigh confidence
Gary Niederpruem has been chief executive since May 2025 after six years at Vertiv, where he helped lead its carve-out and listing. Ryan Fiedler, chief financial officer since July 2025 and a Caterpillar veteran, stepped down on 21 October 2026, about five weeks after the FY26 results he guided from, and leaves the payroll on 30 October; the company gave family time as the reason and a same-day amendment said it was not a disagreement over operations, accounting or reporting, and he gets no severance but keeps his unvested profits interests. Amy Ard, executive vice president of finance since January 2026 and earlier chief financial officer of Proterra, succeeds him. No executive or director holds shares directly; the executives hold profits interests in the Neos holding partnerships worth $39.8M, $22.5M and $20.2M at the June close of $55.86, mostly unvested.
2026-10-22editedThe 21 October 8-K replaced the finance chief; the claim named Fiedler as the current one.
2026-10-22editedA same-day 8-K/A stated the departure was not a disagreement over operations, accounting or reporting; the claim carried only the unconfirmed family reason.
current state · 2026-10-22written 2026-10-05
How we read the multiple
A buyer pays for the whole company, about $8.1B including debt, against the profit it expects this year before interest, tax and depreciation.
1. The company expects about $600M of that profit in the year to June 2027.
2. Today's price is about 13.5 times that figure.
3. If sales next year reach analysts' $3.40B at this year's margin, the price is about 10 times that later profit.
So the price pays for this year in full and leaves most of next year's growth free.
Against its own history. It has traded for only eight months, so its own normal is short; the price is now far below any level it has traded at since the listing's first weeks.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C20inferencemedium confidence
At $24.92 the company value is about $8.09B, about 13.5 times the $600M midpoint of FY27 adjusted EBITDA guidance and the shares about 18.7 times the $1.33 adjusted EPS midpoint. Counting the $338.9M tax receivable liability as debt adds about half a turn.
derived$24.92 close on 22 October 2026 (C21) times 304.4M Class A and B shares (C17) is about $7.59B; add $598.5M of term loan less $97.5M of cash (C19) for about $8.09B of company value; divide by the $600M adjusted EBITDA and $1.33 adjusted EPS guidance midpoints (C23).
against this
On FY26's actual $322.9M the same value is about 25 times, so the price is cheap only on a year the backlog has yet to turn into sales (C24).
2026-10-23editedre-struck at the 22 October close: 13.5 times FY27's guided EBITDA, from 21.3 at $40.35
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C23management claimmedium confidence
Forgent guides FY27 revenue of $2.4B to $2.6B, up about 76% at the midpoint, adjusted EBITDA of $575M to $625M (about 24%) and adjusted EPS of $1.26 to $1.40; for the September 2026 quarter revenue of $445M to $465M and adjusted EBITDA of $90M to $100M, including about $10M of one-time costs. It expects more than $300M of operating cash flow and about $87M of capital spending. On 22 October it said the September quarter's revenue and adjusted EBITDA will both exceed the high end of those ranges ($465M and $100M), without giving figures, and set the report for 12 November.
The September quarter guide's $455M midpoint is below June's $461.7M (C03), and its margin of about 21% below June's 24.4%.
2026-10-22editedThe 22 October 8-K said the September quarter's revenue and adjusted EBITDA will beat the high end of the guide and moved the report date to 12 November; the claim described the guide alone.
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C34inferencelow confidence
If FY28 sales reach consensus at FY27's guided margin, today's company value is about 9.9 times FY28 profit before interest, tax and depreciation; at 16 times FY27's guide it would be about 11.8 times, a price that pays for FY27 and leaves FY28's growth close to free, and today's price is below that.
derivedFY27 consensus sales of $3.40B for FY28 (C22) at the FY27 guided margin of about 24% (C23) is about $816M of adjusted EBITDA; $8.09B of company value (C20) over that is about 9.9 times, and 16 times FY27's $600M is $9.6B, about 11.8 times the same figure.
against this
FY28 has no backlog behind it yet beyond the less than 10% of the book scheduled past FY27 (C05), and quarterly orders will not be reported (C14).
2026-10-23editedre-struck at the 22 October close: 9.9 times FY28 at consensus, from 15.7
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C24factmedium confidence
Against the filed cohort of Vertiv, Eaton, Hubbell, nVent and Powell, the pack puts Forgent's trailing company value to EBITDA at 42.4 against a median of 28.7, the dearest of six; on the filed FY26 adjusted EBITDA of $322.9M the figure is about 40.
Trailing figures miss a year in which revenue grew 89%: on FY27 guidance the multiple was about 21.3 on 2 October and is about 13.5 at the 22 October close (C20).
2026-10-23editedcounter-evidence re-struck at the 22 October close; the cohort figures are 2 October's and are re-measured at the next full review
current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-05
C22factmedium confidence
Analysts are mostly positive: 83.3% of 12 on 1 October 2026 against 90% of 10 in June, while the average price target fell 13.6% in the last month against the year. Short sellers held 9.9M shares, 13.6% of the float, at the 15 September settlement. Consensus expects about $2.54B of sales and $1.35 of adjusted earnings a share in FY27, and $3.40B and $2.01 in FY28.
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of cash profit, cheapest first:
The middle of the other 5 is 28.7. GE Vernova Inc. competes with it in one product line inside a much bigger company, so its price says little about this business and it is not counted in the middle. Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. is dearest of 6.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
On last year's profit it looked dearest among its filed rivals before the fall; the rivals have not been re-measured since.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Schneider Electric SE, Hitachi Energy Ltd. and WEG S.A., IEM Holdings Group, Inc. and Mission Critical Group.
Where we disagree with the market
The market believes
A fast AI power winner growing far faster than its market, which has now been marked down 62% from its high.
We believe
The year ahead is bought and the next is nearly free at this price; the years after depend on orders outlasting a shortage everyone is adding capacity to end.
The orders are real, but they are this year's sales, not growth still to come, and the price already counts them. What is not counted is the next year, which depends on orders arriving after rivals add capacity, and those orders will be reported only once a year. At the lower price that risk is mostly paid for.
Against us: the company beat forecasts in each of its three quarters as a listed company, and orders ran at 3.3 times sales in the latest one.
What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
83%
of 12, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
90%
of 10, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C22factmedium confidence
Analysts are mostly positive: 83.3% of 12 on 1 October 2026 against 90% of 10 in June, while the average price target fell 13.6% in the last month against the year. Short sellers held 9.9M shares, 13.6% of the float, at the 15 September settlement. Consensus expects about $2.54B of sales and $1.35 of adjusted earnings a share in FY27, and $3.40B and $2.01 in FY28.
The shares closed at $24.92 on 22 October 2026, 62.2% below the $66.00 high and 13.0% under the $28.64 low of 14 September. They rose about 41% after the Q4 results to $40.35 on 2 October, then fell 38.2% in three weeks, 21.5% of it on 22 October on 44.4M shares traded against 7.1M the day before, a day Vertiv fell 7.8% and Eaton 6.3%. The fall came at the open: the finance chief's departure was released at 7:00am (C31) and the shares opened 14.4% lower at $27.18, then drifted to $23.16 by 3:15pm. The statement that the quarter beat its forecast came at 3:15pm, after the amendment saying the departure was no disagreement, and the shares recovered to $24.92 at the close.
2026-10-23editedre-struck at the 22 October close: the shares fell 38.2% since 2 October and 21.5% in one session
2026-10-23editedThe 15-minute bars put the fall at the open, minutes after the 7:00am release of the finance chief's departure; the claim said the day's filings did not explain it.
current state · 2026-10-22written 2026-10-05
C20inferencemedium confidence
At $24.92 the company value is about $8.09B, about 13.5 times the $600M midpoint of FY27 adjusted EBITDA guidance and the shares about 18.7 times the $1.33 adjusted EPS midpoint. Counting the $338.9M tax receivable liability as debt adds about half a turn.
derived$24.92 close on 22 October 2026 (C21) times 304.4M Class A and B shares (C17) is about $7.59B; add $598.5M of term loan less $97.5M of cash (C19) for about $8.09B of company value; divide by the $600M adjusted EBITDA and $1.33 adjusted EPS guidance midpoints (C23).
against this
On FY26's actual $322.9M the same value is about 25 times, so the price is cheap only on a year the backlog has yet to turn into sales (C24).
2026-10-23editedre-struck at the 22 October close: 13.5 times FY27's guided EBITDA, from 21.3 at $40.35
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C05management claimmedium confidence
Management says every order in backlog is a firm purchase order, with no letters of intent, and that backlog covers more than 90% of FY27 revenue guidance, the rest delivering in FY28.
Cancellation terms are not disclosed, and from FY27 orders and backlog are reported only once a year (C14), so the cover cannot be checked until September 2027.
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C12facthigh confidence
Forgent's 10-K says US prices for electrical distribution equipment rose significantly as demand outgrew supply, that it and some competitors have announced plans to add capacity, and that prices could fall if the industry adds capacity faster than demand grows. Vertiv's 10-K says it has more than doubled its capacity for switchgear, busbar and integrated power solutions since late 2021.
Bookings were $1,503M in the June 2026 quarter, up 375% and 3.3 times that quarter's revenue. Backlog reached $3.0B at 30 June 2026 against $850M a year earlier, and about 40% of it is Powertrain Solutions.
One quarter's bookings: the company says single orders now move a quarter, which is why it will stop reporting quarterly orders (C14).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-05
06
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
The shortage ends Prices rose because supply fell short; as Vertiv, Eaton and Forgent itself add factories, prices and orders could fall together.
One kind of customer Data centers are 59% of sales and one customer 11%; a pause in AI building hits most of the company at once.
An owner who keeps selling Neos holds 37% of the vote, can block major decisions, and has sold in every offering since February.
Copper in fixed prices Many orders carry no clause passing on metal costs, and copper rose last year and again this quarter.
Less to see Orders will be reported once a year, so a slowdown could show first in a missed quarterly forecast.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C12facthigh confidence
Forgent's 10-K says US prices for electrical distribution equipment rose significantly as demand outgrew supply, that it and some competitors have announced plans to add capacity, and that prices could fall if the industry adds capacity faster than demand grows. Vertiv's 10-K says it has more than doubled its capacity for switchgear, busbar and integrated power solutions since late 2021.
Custom Products were about 70% of FY26 revenue ($990.5M), Powertrain Solutions 25% ($357.4M, up 259%), Standard Products 3% and services 2%. By end market data centers were about 59%, grid 21%, industrial 10% and other 10%, and substantially all revenue came from North America.
One customer was about 11% of FY26 revenue and 15% of receivables; no customer passed 10% in FY25. The 10-K warns that selling more Powertrain Solutions concentrates sales in fewer, larger customers who can negotiate harder.
Forgent is an Up-C: the listed company owns units of Forgent Power Holdings LLC beside the Continuing Equity Owners. At 8 September 2026 there were 274.5M Class A and 29.9M Class B shares. Neos Partners' vehicles held 83.4M Class A and all 29.9M Class B shares, 37.2% of the vote, with the right to nominate up to five directors while above 35% and consent rights over major actions until below 25%; Coatue held 7.5% of Class A.
Forgent listed on 6 February 2026 at $27 and sold more stock three times in five months: at $29.50 in March, $47.00 in June and $49.00 in July. The selling holders sold most of the shares each time, and the company used its own proceeds from the follow-ons to buy units from the Continuing Equity Owners, so it kept none; the 10-K says more follow-ons are expected.
How Forgent's delivery times compare with rivals' product by product, measured by a buyer rather than by the company.
What a customer can do to cancel or delay an order in the $3.0B backlog, and at what cost.
How much of last year's margin came from shortage pricing that would reverse when delivery times return to normal.
Why the finance chief left seven months after listing, without severance, weeks before the first quarter's report; the company says family time and no disagreement.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C08management claimmedium confidence
Forgent says it can engineer a custom product in a few hours and ship one in as little as a week, using more than 200 engineers and a database of reference designs, and that making medium-voltage switchgear and dry-type transformers in-house gives it significantly shorter lead times than rivals. On the call the chief executive said it is still inside expected industry lead times for every product line.
No outside source measures Forgent's own lead times; the industry's 44-week switchgear average (C10) is the only comparison found, and Vertiv has doubled its switchgear capacity (C12).
current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-10-05
C05management claimmedium confidence
Management says every order in backlog is a firm purchase order, with no letters of intent, and that backlog covers more than 90% of FY27 revenue guidance, the rest delivering in FY28.
Cancellation terms are not disclosed, and from FY27 orders and backlog are reported only once a year (C14), so the cover cannot be checked until September 2027.
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C12facthigh confidence
Forgent's 10-K says US prices for electrical distribution equipment rose significantly as demand outgrew supply, that it and some competitors have announced plans to add capacity, and that prices could fall if the industry adds capacity faster than demand grows. Vertiv's 10-K says it has more than doubled its capacity for switchgear, busbar and integrated power solutions since late 2021.
The shares closed at $24.92 on 22 October 2026, 62.2% below the $66.00 high and 13.0% under the $28.64 low of 14 September. They rose about 41% after the Q4 results to $40.35 on 2 October, then fell 38.2% in three weeks, 21.5% of it on 22 October on 44.4M shares traded against 7.1M the day before, a day Vertiv fell 7.8% and Eaton 6.3%. The fall came at the open: the finance chief's departure was released at 7:00am (C31) and the shares opened 14.4% lower at $27.18, then drifted to $23.16 by 3:15pm. The statement that the quarter beat its forecast came at 3:15pm, after the amendment saying the departure was no disagreement, and the shares recovered to $24.92 at the close.
2026-10-23editedre-struck at the 22 October close: the shares fell 38.2% since 2 October and 21.5% in one session
2026-10-23editedThe 15-minute bars put the fall at the open, minutes after the 7:00am release of the finance chief's departure; the claim said the day's filings did not explain it.
current state · 2026-10-22written 2026-10-05
C31facthigh confidence
Gary Niederpruem has been chief executive since May 2025 after six years at Vertiv, where he helped lead its carve-out and listing. Ryan Fiedler, chief financial officer since July 2025 and a Caterpillar veteran, stepped down on 21 October 2026, about five weeks after the FY26 results he guided from, and leaves the payroll on 30 October; the company gave family time as the reason and a same-day amendment said it was not a disagreement over operations, accounting or reporting, and he gets no severance but keeps his unvested profits interests. Amy Ard, executive vice president of finance since January 2026 and earlier chief financial officer of Proterra, succeeds him. No executive or director holds shares directly; the executives hold profits interests in the Neos holding partnerships worth $39.8M, $22.5M and $20.2M at the June close of $55.86, mostly unvested.
2026-10-22editedThe 21 October 8-K replaced the finance chief; the claim named Fiedler as the current one.
2026-10-22editedA same-day 8-K/A stated the departure was not a disagreement over operations, accounting or reporting; the claim carried only the unconfirmed family reason.
current state · 2026-10-22written 2026-10-05
What would change our view
Attractive→NeutralThe price again pays for the year ahead and more
It needs:
○Buyers pay about 20 times this year's expected profit before interest, tax and depreciation, from about 13.5 today.about ≈$36.92 today, -9% above the last close
Attractive→NeutralThe plan behind the year weakens
It needs any of:
○The company cuts its fiscal 2027 sales forecast below $2.4B.watched as it happens
○Orders taken in the year to June 2027 come in below that year's sales.watched as it happens
Attractive→UnattractiveThe accounts are in doubt
It needs:
○A filing restates past results, reports a weakness in its accounting controls, or the auditor leaves.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
The company cuts its fiscal 2027 sales forecast below $2.4B.
The profit margin stays below 21% after the first quarter of fiscal 2027.
Industry switchgear delivery times fall below six months while Forgent's prices fall.
What is coming
12 November 2026 Q1 FY27 results: Revenue against the $445M to $465M guide and the margin against about 21%, the first quarter without order figures.
Every dated event ahead
12 November 2026 Q1 FY27 results: Revenue against the $445M to $465M guide and the margin against about 21%, the first quarter without order figures.
28 January 2027 Annual meeting: The first proxy statement and the board Neos nominates.
15 February 2027 Q2 FY27 results: Whether the FY27 guide is raised or cut, and the first quarter of the copper cost increase on fixed-price orders.
June 2027 Tijuana Powertrain expansion online: Whether capacity reaches about $5.8B of revenue as planned.
15 September 2027 FY27 results with annual bookings and backlog: Whether a year of orders at least matches a year of revenue, the one test of FY28 the company still publishes.
Since we wrote this
Written
5 Oct
Price the thesis read
$40.35
2 Oct
23 OctPrice moveShares fell 38% in three weeks; view moved to AttractiveAt 13.5 times FY27's guided profit the year in backlog is paid for and FY28 is nearly free; the 12 November report tests the beat.
23 OctThesis reviewThe 22 October fall traced to the finance chief's exitThe shares opened 14% lower minutes after his departure was released; the view holds, and a restatement or control weakness would now make it unattractive.
22 OctNewsFinance chief leaves; quarter to beat guide, report 12 NovemberAn internal successor and a stated beat with no figures leave the case as it was; the 12 November print is the first under the new finance chief.
5 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten three weeks after the first annual report as a listed company, with the shares 39% below their June high.
5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
Also checked 1 time with nothing new to act on.
Sources 18
Where this came from
Sources - 18
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
products, campuses, competitors, end-market and product mix, customer concentration, the risk factors on pricing, capacity and copper, the Up-C structure, the tax receivable agreement, debt, ownership and executive pay
Q4 and full-year results by product type, bookings, backlog, adjusted EBITDA and EPS reconciliations, and fiscal 2027 and Q1 guidance
backsC02C03C04C06C14C23C25
S03primarytranscript2026-09-15
Forgent Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 15 September 2026
backlog quality and FY27 cover, lead times, growth by end market against the market, the first AI-lab order and hyperscaler MSA, the Tijuana expansion, the move to annual order reporting, and M&A as the first use of cash
So anything in our backlog is a firm purchase order. So there's no LOIs.
the offering's size and price, the shares sold by the selling stockholders, the use of the company's proceeds to buy units from the continuing owners, and the lock-up
the 800 VDC rack power design, its 2027 timing and the power partners NVIDIA names
By converting 13.8 kV AC grid power directly to 800 VDC at the data center perimeter using industrial-grade rectifiers, most intermediate conversion steps are eliminated
backsC30
S12secondaryvendor data2026-10-05
Research pack (FMP market data, FINRA, SEC filed figures), frozen as research-pack.json
price and range, peer prices, the analyst series and estimates, price target drift, short interest, insider trades, the earnings history and the cohort multiples
the clarification that the finance chief's departure was not the result of any disagreement on operations, policies, practices, financial condition, accounting or reporting
backsC21C31
S17secondaryvendor data2026-10-22
Daily closes to 22 October 2026 (FMP end-of-day prices): FPS, Vertiv, Eaton
FPS close of $24.92 on 22 October 2026, 21.5% below $31.76 the day before, on 44.4M shares against 7.1M; Vertiv down 7.8% and Eaton down 6.3% the same day
backsC21
S18secondaryvendor data2026-10-22
FMP 15-minute bars, FPS, 21 and 22 October 2026
FPS closed 21 October at $31.75; on 22 October it opened at $27.18, traded as low as $25.05 in the first 15 minutes on 2.6M shares, reached $23.16 by 3:15pm and closed at $24.92 after rising from $23.19 in the last 45 minutes