Advanced Micro Devices
AMD designs the chips inside servers, PCs and game consoles, and is the only company besides NVIDIA selling AI chips at large scale. TSMC makes them.
The scores
Growth3/4 ↑
Revenue rose 34% in 2025 and 50% in Q2 2026, organically, but fast growth is under two years old and narrows to data center.
Business quality3/4 →
x86, shared only with Intel, holds its price against Arm, but in AI chips AMD is NVIDIA's challenger, and Google's TPUs reach its customers.
Financial position3/4 →
Net cash and $4.1B of half-year free cash flow, but it borrowed $4.75B mid-ramp and backs partners' leases and Anthropic.
Execution record3/4 →
Revenue beat its own guide three quarters running; Helios is its first rack, so the delivery that matters is unproven.
Per share capture2/4 ↓
Warrants for up to 320M shares go to the buyers and World Labs is paid in shares: about a sixth of success leaks.
Potential2/4 ↑
Large, but only two gigawatts are binding; the rest needs OpenAI and Anthropic to fund and exercise options AMD cannot control.
Risk profile2/4 →
Three AI buyers carry the ramp, TSMC makes every leading chip, and China's export rules switch on and off by decision.
Valuation2/4 →
33 times 2027's expected earnings pays for the plan working; little is left if the racks arrive two quarters late.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Results, agreements and warrants are filed; Instinct sales, revenue per gigawatt and the Helios timetable are management's words alone.
If it works 1.1× · if it fails you keep about 33%.
The Verdict
We rate AMD neutral. It designs the processors that run servers, PCs and AI, and the business is mixed: its server and AI sales doubled in a year, but in AI it is the challenger to a far larger NVIDIA, and it hands buyers shares to win their orders. The price is full: it treats next year's forecast sales jump as if the new AI racks were delivered, so delays would hurt. As a bet on those racks it is priced for success: if they sell as the forecasts count, the shares are worth only a little more than today, and if they fail, about a third is left.
The long caseAI needs far more chips than one supplier can make, and AMD is the only other one selling them at scale.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
- Adjusted EPS leaves out about $2.2B a year of amortisation of acquired intangibles and $2.0B of stock pay (C04), so the GAAP multiples are higher still.
- If 2027 comes in where management hints, above an analyst's $30B for Instinct (C08), the 2027 multiple falls.
Management says demand is ahead of its initial forecast and supply will rise substantially in 2027, so 2027 could beat the consensus.
AMD files no split of today's GPU sales, so the rest of AMD could be well below $50B, which would mean the forecasts count more gigawatts.
Adjusted earnings leave out stock pay and amortisation of acquired intangibles, about $4B a year together (C04), so GAAP earnings are lower.
The company
Every data center runs on two kinds of chip: processors that do the general work, and accelerators that do the heavy arithmetic of AI. AMD designs both, plus processors for PCs, game consoles and machines, and TSMC manufactures them.
Its EPYC server chips compete with Intel's, and its Instinct accelerators are the main alternative to NVIDIA's. From late 2026 it also sells Helios, a whole rack of 72 accelerators wired to work as one machine, which an AI lab would otherwise buy from NVIDIA or build from its own chips.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
- AMD's own release of 27 October says initial Helios racks are installed and being tested at Meta; no customer has said it received or paid for a production rack, and no Helios revenue is disclosed by 27 October 2026.
- A first rack-scale product from a company that sold chips, not racks, until 2025 carries assembly and cooling risk the chip business never had.
- 2026-10-27editedAMD's 27 October release says initial Helios racks are installed and being tested at Meta (C58); still management-sourced
These are AMD's own benchmarks; no independent test of Venice or Helios is published yet.
How it makes money
AMD is paid per chip, and now per rack, by the clouds, AI labs, PC makers and console makers that buy them. Data center chips brought 58% of sales in Q2 2026, PC processors 27%, and gaming and embedded chips the rest. What keeps the money coming is a faster generation every year or so: a buyer that skips one buys from a rival instead.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
- AMD's own release of 27 October says initial Helios racks are installed and being tested at Meta; no customer has said it received or paid for a production rack, and no Helios revenue is disclosed by 27 October 2026.
- A first rack-scale product from a company that sold chips, not racks, until 2025 carries assembly and cooling risk the chip business never had.
- 2026-10-27editedAMD's 27 October release says initial Helios racks are installed and being tested at Meta (C58); still management-sourced
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (Q2 2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Data Center: EPYC server CPUs, Instinct GPUs, networking | 58% | Server processors and AI accelerators sold to clouds, AI labs, server makers and governments; no split between CPUs and GPUs is filed. |
| Client: Ryzen PC processors | 27% | Processors for laptops and desktops sold to PC makers and distributors. |
| Gaming: Radeon graphics and console chips | 7% | Graphics cards and the custom chips inside Sony's and Microsoft's consoles. |
| Embedded: Xilinx programmable chips and embedded processors | 8% | Chips for industrial, car, communications and defence equipment. |
Who runs it
Lisa Su has run AMD since 2014 and chairs its board. She moved manufacturing to TSMC, built the server chip line and signed the three gigawatt deals. Jean Hu has been finance chief since 2022, and sales have beaten her guidance three quarters running.
Insiders own under 1% of the shares and bought none in the last year. Their pay rides on the share price against other large companies and on adjusted earnings, a measure that leaves out pay in shares.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Q1 2026 included about $100M of MI308 China sales the guide named, and Q4 2025 benefited from a $360M reserve release (C20).
Every pay metric is adjusted, so the amortisation and stock pay that separate GAAP from adjusted profit do not reduce it.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
Only AMD and Intel sell x86 processors, the design most server and PC software is written for. Moving that software to a chip built on Arm's designs means rewriting and retesting it, so buyers pay to avoid the move. Amazon, which built its own Arm chip, still rents it out for up to 20% less than comparable x86 machines to persuade customers to switch.
That protects AMD's processors. In AI chips it has no such protection: there, it is the challenger.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
The same passage names the dependence as a risk: x86 lives on the software others choose to write.
The threat
NVIDIA is the giant: its data center sales were more than 13 times AMD's in the same months. The clouds are the other danger, because they design chips themselves. Google sells its own AI chips to outside buyers, and Anthropic, one of AMD's three big AI customers, has signed for gigawatts of them.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
It counts servers, not dollars, and makes no split between NVIDIA and AMD inside the GPU share.
The rivals: NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, AVGO, MRVL, MSFT, INTC, QCOM, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | Where it competes | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA's GPUs, racks and CUDA softwarePriced against it: Yes | Helios racks for gigawatt AI deployments | On sale | Yes |
| GOOGL · AMZN · AVGO · MRVL | Custom AI chips the clouds design: Google's TPU, Amazon's Trainium, and chips Broadcom and Marvell build to orderPriced against it: One segment only | Helios racks for gigawatt AI deployments | On sale | One segment only |
| Private | Huawei's Ascend accelerators in ChinaPriced against it: Private | EPYC CPUs and today's Instinct GPUs | On sale | Private |
| AMZN · GOOGL · MSFT · NVDA | Arm server chips the clouds design: Amazon Graviton, Google Axion, Microsoft Cobalt, and NVIDIA's GracePriced against it: Yes | EPYC CPUs and today's Instinct GPUs | On sale | Yes |
| INTC | Intel's Xeon server processorsPriced against it: Yes | EPYC CPUs and today's Instinct GPUs | On sale | Yes |
| INTC · QCOM | Intel's PC processors and Arm laptop chips from QualcommPriced against it: Yes | PC, gaming and embedded chips | On sale | Yes |
How big it could get
How big this could get
Measured in power, the world's data centers drew about 161 gigawatts in 2026, a third of it for AI servers, and TrendForce expects more than 30% growth in 2027. If about 30 gigawatts of AI capacity are added that year, at $10B to $15B of chips a gigawatt, and GPUs take 69.7% of AI servers, the market AMD's accelerators sell into is worth about $210B to $315B that year.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
It is a forecast of capacity, and power, cooling and grid hook-ups can delay what gets built.
- The revenue per gigawatt is management's own range and the result moves one for one with it.
- NVIDIA's data center line alone ran at about $356B a year in mid-2026 (C23), so the range may be low.
It counts servers, not dollars, and makes no split between NVIDIA and AMD inside the GPU share.
- None of the four is in a filing; the 10-Q carries no 2027 figure.
- A gross margin below the average means each gigawatt adds revenue faster than it adds profit, so the mix pulls the margin down as Helios grows.
Who has signed
OpenAI and Meta have each signed a binding order for one gigawatt, of up to six each, and each gets up to 160 million AMD shares as it deploys. Anthropic has agreed to up to two gigawatts, with no binding commitment disclosed. AMD also backs a 15-year lease for TensorWave, a cloud that runs only AMD chips.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
- Only the first gigawatt is binding; the other five depend on OpenAI's own funding and choices.
- The warrant gives the buyer up to 160M shares, so part of the price of the order is paid by AMD's shareholders.
Meta designs its own accelerators too and calls the deal a step to 'diversify our compute', so AMD is a second source rather than the main one.
- The release states no binding commitment, unlike the OpenAI and Meta filings.
- Anthropic has also signed for multiple gigawatts of TPU capacity from Google and Broadcom from 2027 (C28).
The support ends early if TensorWave or its guarantor holds an investment-grade rating for 12 months.
Where the growth is coming from, business by business
Where the growth is coming from
| Business | Share of revenue | Growth: last quarter | Last half-year | Last year | Share in 3 years at its half-year rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPYC CPUs and today's Instinct GPUs | 58% | +107.3% | +80.7% | +55.1% | 85% |
| PC, gaming and embedded chips | 42% | +8.4% | +13.2% | +25.0% | 15% |
| Whole company | 100% | +50.1% | +44.1% | +39.5% | 100% |
On the filed split through 2026-06-27, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 53% next year and 66% in year 3, against 39.5% over the last twelve months. EPYC CPUs and today's Instinct GPUs carries the case: it grows 81% against 13% for the rest, and would be 85% of revenue by then. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.
How we read it: The score believes the blend: Data Center carries it at 107% growth, but the blend already shows it, and the next stage is the early Helios business the bet prices.
The results
The numbers
Sales grew 40% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 34% in the year to Dec 2025.
Operating margin is 16%, up from 1.8% in the year to Dec 2023.
Running costs take 37¢ of each sales dollar, up from 26¢ in the year to Dec 2021.
Each dollar put into the business earns 8.3% a year after tax, down from 45% in the year to Dec 2021.
It turned 20% of sales into free cash, $8.40B over the last twelve months.
It holds $13.1B of cash against $3.23B of debt, $9.88B more cash than it owes.
The share count rose 35% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 4.6% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-18. Fiscal years end in December.
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | 12 mo to Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $16.4B | $23.6B | $22.7B | $25.8B | $34.6B | $41.3B |
| Sales growth | +68% | +44% | −3.9% | +14% | +34% | +40% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Gross margin | 48% | 45% | 46% | 49% | 50% | 53% |
| Operating margin | 22% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 7.4% | 11% | 16% |
| Net margin | 19% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 13% | 16% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Research and development | 17% | 21% | 26% | 25% | 23% | 23% |
| Selling, general and admin | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 12% |
| Pay in shares | 2.3% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% |
| Capital spending | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | $3.52B | $3.56B | $1.67B | $3.04B | $7.71B | $10.1B |
| Free cash flow | $3.22B | $3.12B | $1.12B | $2.40B | $6.74B | $8.40B |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $3.61B | $5.86B | $5.77B | $5.13B | $10.6B | $13.1B |
| Debt | $313M | $2.47B | $3.22B | $1.72B | $4.10B | $3.23B |
| Net cash | $3.29B | $3.39B | $2.55B | $3.41B | $6.46B | $9.88B |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Return on capital | 45% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 2.6% | 5.8% | 8.3% |
| Shares (diluted) | 1.23B | 1.57B | 1.62B | 1.64B | 1.64B | 1.66B |
What growth costs
Growing has made AMD more profitable so far: sales grew faster than research and overhead costs in Q2 2026. The next stage is different. The AI chips earn a little less on each dollar than the company average, so as the racks ramp, profit should grow more slowly than sales.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
AMD expects gross margin to keep improving overall through 2027 as mix allows (S04).
- None of the four is in a filing; the 10-Q carries no 2027 figure.
- A gross margin below the average means each gigawatt adds revenue faster than it adds profit, so the mix pulls the margin down as Helios grows.
The last report (4 Aug)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
Q2 2026 was AMD's best quarter yet. Sales rose 50% to $11.54B, and data center sales more than doubled, to $6.72B. PC processors grew 23% while gaming fell 31%.
Profit depends on which measure. The company's adjusted figure was $1.66 a share; the official accounts, after $544M of acquisition costs spread over the years and $503M of pay in shares, gave $1.38. AMD guided Q3 to about $13.0B, and the shares still fell 7.0% the next day.
What it did to the thesisIt proved the server chips and today's AI chips are growing fast, which supports the business. It said nothing yet about the new racks the price depends on, so the view stays neutral until they show up in results.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $1.66 against $1.62 expected; $1.38 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The midpoint is 13% above Q2 2026, a larger step than the 3% to 13% beats of the last three quarters (C41).
What management did with the money
AMD bought back few shares in the first half of 2026 and pays for acquisitions partly in shares: ZT Systems in 2025 with cash and shares, World Labs this year with about $8.2B of them. It also borrowed $4.75B in August.
Insiders in 2026Q3: 39 purchases and 141 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Full. The price pays for next year's expected leap in sales, which needs the first gigawatts at three AI buyers delivered on time, with little room for a slip.
The shares more than doubled in a year, but most of that was buyers paying more for each dollar of sales, which rose about a third per share. Since their early-October high they have fallen 20%.
The test is close. The Q3 2026 results on 3 November 2026 should say whether the first racks shipped, and the Q4 results in early 2027 should show the first full quarter of them.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
- AMD's own release of 27 October says initial Helios racks are installed and being tested at Meta; no customer has said it received or paid for a production rack, and no Helios revenue is disclosed by 27 October 2026.
- A first rack-scale product from a company that sold chips, not racks, until 2025 carries assembly and cooling risk the chip business never had.
- 2026-10-27editedAMD's 27 October release says initial Helios racks are installed and being tested at Meta (C58); still management-sourced
How we read the multiple
Buyers pay about 33 dollars for each dollar of profit a share analysts expect for 2027, on the company's adjusted measure; on the official accounts buyers pay more still. For that to hold:
- Sales must rise 76% in 2027 on 2026.
- That needs the first gigawatt at OpenAI, at Meta and at Anthropic delivered within the year.
- A two-quarter slip would cut 2027 earnings to about $11 a share.
- Today's price would then be about 48 times that year's earnings.
Against its own history. Dearer than its own normal, because buyers now pay for the racks before they have shown up in profit.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
- Adjusted EPS leaves out about $2.2B a year of amortisation of acquired intangibles and $2.0B of stock pay (C04), so the GAAP multiples are higher still.
- If 2027 comes in where management hints, above an analyst's $30B for Instinct (C08), the 2027 multiple falls.
Management says demand is ahead of its initial forecast and supply will rise substantially in 2027, so 2027 could beat the consensus.
The dated series counts a smaller panel, 80% positive of 55, than the snapshot.
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of cash profit, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | company value for each $1 of cash profit |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 25.7× |
| INTC | Intel | 41.2× |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | 90.6× |
The middle of the other 2 is 33.5. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. is dearest of 3.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
Buyers pay more for each dollar of cash profit than at NVIDIA or Intel: the extra is AMD's own, paid for growth it has not yet shown.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Altera, Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd., The large clouds' in-house chips (Amazon Graviton and Trainium, Google TPU and Axion, Microsoft Cobalt and Maia, Meta MTIA).
The bet: what it pays if it works
The bet is on Helios, AMD's racks of AI chips for gigawatt-scale data centers. If the three buyers take as many as the forecasts already count, the whole company is worth only a little more than today, because the price already pays for that.
If the racks fail, shareholders keep the server, PC and today's AI chip business, worth about a third of today's price.
| Helios racks for gigawatt AI deployments earnings in two to three years | Gigawatts of Helios racks delivered a year needed | At the stated multiple |
|---|---|---|
| $11.25B | about 2 at 100% kept | 0.7× |
| $22.50B (the big win) | about 5 at 100% kept | 1.1× |
| $36.00B | about 8 at 100% kept | 1.6× |
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $48.04B of Helios racks for gigawatt AI deployments earnings (about 11 gigawatts of Helios racks delivered a year); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $134.36B of Helios racks for gigawatt AI deployments earnings (about 30 gigawatts of Helios racks delivered a year), at the same multiple.
Each row is Helios racks for gigawatt AI deployments alone, plus the rest of the company (Server CPUs, today's Instinct GPUs, PC, gaming and embedded chips: everything outside Helios) counted at about $285.00B.
The steps it has to take
- Done Helios in production with named buyers
- Done Binding first gigawatts signed at OpenAI and Meta
- In progress First Helios racks shipped due 2026-12
- Not started Helios revenue stated in results due 2027-02
- Not started Anthropic's first gigawatt deployed due 2027-06
- Not started OpenAI's first gigawatt deployed and its first warrant tranche vested due 2027-12
The detail behind the label
The evidence under this - 6 claims
AMD files no split of today's GPU sales, so the rest of AMD could be well below $50B, which would mean the forecasts count more gigawatts.
- Only the first gigawatt is binding; the other five depend on OpenAI's own funding and choices.
- The warrant gives the buyer up to 160M shares, so part of the price of the order is paid by AMD's shareholders.
Meta designs its own accelerators too and calls the deal a step to 'diversify our compute', so AMD is a second source rather than the main one.
- The release states no binding commitment, unlike the OpenAI and Meta filings.
- Anthropic has also signed for multiple gigawatts of TPU capacity from Google and Broadcom from 2027 (C28).
Adjusted earnings leave out stock pay and amortisation of acquired intangibles, about $4B a year together (C04), so GAAP earnings are lower.
Where we disagree with the market
AMD becomes NVIDIA's real rival in AI, with sales more than doubling from 2026 to 2028 and earnings tripling.
The growth is real, but the price already pays for it, and AMD's own shareholders fund part of each gigawatt through shares, guarantees and stakes.
Analysts count the gigawatts as sales already. The filings show only two are binding, and that the buyers receive up to 320 million shares as they deploy, about a fifth of AMD today.
The evidence against us is real: management hints that 2027 will beat the analysts, and if the racks ramp quickly, today's price will look cheap within a year.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 6 claims
The dated series counts a smaller panel, 80% positive of 55, than the snapshot.
Management says demand is ahead of its initial forecast and supply will rise substantially in 2027, so 2027 could beat the consensus.
- Only the first gigawatt is binding; the other five depend on OpenAI's own funding and choices.
- The warrant gives the buyer up to 160M shares, so part of the price of the order is paid by AMD's shareholders.
Meta designs its own accelerators too and calls the deal a step to 'diversify our compute', so AMD is a second source rather than the main one.
- None of the four is in a filing; the 10-Q carries no 2027 figure.
- A gross margin below the average means each gigawatt adds revenue faster than it adds profit, so the mix pulls the margin down as Helios grows.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- The racks arrive late. Helios is AMD's first complete rack; a two-quarter slip would push much of 2027's expected growth into 2028.
- Buyers build their own. Google, Amazon and Microsoft design AI chips, and Anthropic has signed for gigawatts of Google's.
- Paying for its own demand. Shares for buyers, lease guarantees and a stake in Anthropic mean AMD's owners fund part of what the buyers spend.
- One maker, one island. TSMC in Taiwan makes every leading AMD chip, so a disruption there stops the products.
- China switches on and off. Export rules cost AMD an $800M charge in 2025 and can change by decision at any time.
- Thinner margins on racks. AI chips earn below the company's average, so growth could add sales faster than profit.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
- AMD's own release of 27 October says initial Helios racks are installed and being tested at Meta; no customer has said it received or paid for a production rack, and no Helios revenue is disclosed by 27 October 2026.
- A first rack-scale product from a company that sold chips, not racks, until 2025 carries assembly and cooling risk the chip business never had.
- 2026-10-27editedAMD's 27 October release says initial Helios racks are installed and being tested at Meta (C58); still management-sourced
- NVIDIA backs its buyers too, so this may be the price of selling into this market rather than a sign of weak demand.
- The warrants vest only as the buyer deploys gigawatts and the share price reaches up to $600 (C10, C11).
- 2026-10-27editedAMD said on 27 October it will invest $1B in Meta's equity offering, a further payment to a customer (C58)
- None of the four is in a filing; the 10-Q carries no 2027 figure.
- A gross margin below the average means each gigawatt adds revenue faster than it adds profit, so the mix pulls the margin down as Helios grows.
What we still do not know
- How much AMD's AI chips sell today: the company files no figure.
- Whether the first racks shipped in Q3 2026, and to whom.
- How AMD's AI chips perform against NVIDIA's on an independent test.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
No figure is filed, so the doubling cannot be sized: a doubling from a small base and from a large one read the same.
- AMD's own release of 27 October says initial Helios racks are installed and being tested at Meta; no customer has said it received or paid for a production rack, and no Helios revenue is disclosed by 27 October 2026.
- A first rack-scale product from a company that sold chips, not racks, until 2025 carries assembly and cooling risk the chip business never had.
- 2026-10-27editedAMD's 27 October release says initial Helios racks are installed and being tested at Meta (C58); still management-sourced
These are AMD's own benchmarks; no independent test of Venice or Helios is published yet.
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveA price that leaves room for a slip
It needs:
- ○The shares fall to 22 times the earnings per share analysts expect for 2027, from about 33 today.about $353.57 today, 33% below the last close
- Neutral→AttractiveThe ramp proves itself early
It needs:
- ○Data center sales reach $12B in a quarter, from $6.7B, with the adjusted gross margin at 55% or more.checked at the next results, due by 3 Nov
- Neutral→UnattractiveThe ramp slips
It needs:
- ○Data center sales in Q4 2026 grow less than 10% on Q3, a sign the racks did not ramp.checked at the next results, due by 3 Nov
We would also be wrong if
- OpenAI or Meta delays or shrinks its first gigawatt.
- The adjusted gross margin falls below 53% as the racks ramp.
What is coming
- 3 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether Helios shipped in the quarter, revenue against the $13.0B guide, and any 2027 figure.
Every dated event ahead
- 3 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether Helios shipped in the quarter, revenue against the $13.0B guide, and any 2027 figure.
- 3 February 2027 Q4 2026 results: The first full quarter of Helios shipments and the first OpenAI and Meta gigawatts in revenue.
- 30 June 2027 Anthropic's first gigawatt: Whether the third customer's deployment starts as dated.
Since we wrote this
- 27 OctNewsAMD invests $1B in Meta; Helios racks installed thereA further payment toward a customer's purchases and first racks in testing at Meta; Helios revenue waits for the 3 November results.
- 18 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionThe only other AI chip seller at scale, priced as if its gigawatts were delivered.
Sources 25
Sources - 25
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-02-04business and segments, products, manufacturing, competition, customers, export charges, x86 dependence, acquisitions, the full-year statementsbacksC01C03C20C21C30C32C44C45C50
- S02primarycompany filing2026-08-05segment results, the warrants, lease guarantees and investment commitments, the revolver, operating costs, stock pay, the equity planbacksC02C04C06C12C13C14C17C23C45C46C51
- S03primarycompany release2026-08-04results, the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation, the Q3 guide, cash, debt, free cash flow, inventory, buybacksbacksC02C04C07C09C18C19C41C46
- S04primarytranscript2026-08-04Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-08-04data/cache/transcripts/AMD-2026Q2.jsonserver and Instinct growth, the Helios timetable, 2027 remarks, revenue per gigawatt, Instinct margin, market sizes, supply
And in terms of the revenue per gigawatt, I think we've said double-digit billions.
backsC05C06C07C08C09C19C31C33C48C51C54 - S05primarycompany filing2025-10-06the 6 gigawatt agreement, the binding first gigawatt and the warrant termsbacksC10
- S06primarycompany filing2026-02-24the binding first gigawatt, the purchase agreement amendment and the warrantbacksC11
- S07primarycompany release2026-07-22up to 2 gigawatts, the first from H1 2027, and the equity commitment
AMD has committed to make a strategic equity investment of up to $5 billion in Anthropic.
backsC12 - S08primarycompany filing2026-08-17the four note tranches, coupons and maturitiesbacksC17
- S09primarycompany filing2026-09-28the $8.2B price paid in sharesbacksC16
- S10primarycompany filing2026-03-27ownership, share count, pay design, director and officer biographiesbacksC13C38C47
- S11primarycompany release2026-02-03Q4 2025 results, MI308 charges and China sales, the Q1 2026 guidebacksC20C41C42
- S12primarycompany release2026-05-05the Q2 2026 guidebacksC41
- S13primarycompany release2025-11-04the Q4 2025 guidebacksC41
- S14primarycompany filing2026-07-24Intel's data center revenue, server prices and supply
DCAI revenue increased $2.3 billion
backsC22 - S15primarycompany filing2026-08-26NVIDIA's data center revenue and growthbacksC23
- S16primaryindustry data2026-06-30TOP500, June 2026 list TOP500the ranks of the AMD-based exascale systems
El Capitan has 11,340,000 cores and is based on AMD 4th generation EPYC processors with 24 cores at 1.8 GHz and AMD Instinct MI300A accelerators
backsC24 - S17primaryindustry data2026-01-20TrendForce press release: AI server shipments to grow over 28% in 2026, with a rising ASIC share TrendForceGPU and custom-chip shares of AI servers; the clouds' capital spending
GPUs will remain the leading category, accounting for 69.7% of shipments.
backsC25 - S18primaryindustry data2026-09-16gigawatts of data center demand, the AI share and the 2027 rate
Global data center power demand capacity reached 122.9 GW in 2025 and is estimated to rise to 161 GW in 2026.
backsC26 - S20primarycompany filing2026-10-14the TensorWave lease and AMD's credit support
A binding 15 - year phase one lease for 222 MW of total power capacity, backed by credit support from AMD
backsC15 - S21secondaryvendor data2026-10-18Research pack frozen beside this thesis, 2026-10-18content/AMD/research-pack.jsonthe 16 October close and its decomposition, estimates and ratings, earnings history, insider rows, short interest, headcount, the geographic split, the cohortbacksC34C35C39C42C44C49C50C53
- S22primarycompany filing2026-07-23Google selling its TPU systems to outside customers
agreements with a limited number of customers to sell TPU systems
backsC28 - S23primarycompany release2026-04-06an AMD customer buying custom chips at gigawatt scale
We have signed a new agreement with Google and Broadcom for multiple gigawatts of next-generation TPU capacity that we expect to come online starting in 2027.
backsC28 - S24primaryother2026-10-18the price the largest cloud charges to move buyers off x86
AWS Graviton-based instances cost up to 20% less than comparable x86-based Amazon EC2 instances.
backsC29 - S25primarycompany filing2026-10-18which sales were under trading plans adopted in advancebacksC39
- S26primarycompany release2026-10-27the $1B equity investment in a customer and the state of the first Helios racks at Meta
In addition, AMD will invest $1 billion in Meta's equity offering.
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