← All thesesNVDAAttractiveMedium convictionSunday 4 October 2026עברית

NVIDIA

The company whose chips, networking and software most AI data centres are built on.

Our viewAttractive Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑

Revenue up 106% and Data Center 117% with buyers broadening, but a quarter of next year leans on labs NVIDIA helps finance.

Business quality3/4 →

About 79% of the three makers' AI chip revenue on twenty years of software, but Broadcom's custom chips grow twice as fast.

Financial position3/4 ↓

Net cash and $69.9B of half-year free cash flow, but $366B of commitments and $108.5B of guarantees sit outside the balance sheet.

Execution record4/4 →

Eight straight beats, Q1 FY2027 revenue 4.6% above its guide, and a new platform each year since Hopper; the H20 write-off was an export ban.

Per share capture4/4 →

Share count falling, $39.8B of buybacks in six months, $235B more authorised, and deals paid in cash.

Potential2/4 →

A $1T market still rising, but FY2028's 70% rests on others' spending plans and NVIDIA-financed labs; little is signed beyond $15.6B of advances.

Risk profile2/4 ↓

OpenAI sits in revenue, holdings and a $105.0B guarantee at once; three customers are 44%; manufacturing runs through Taiwan; China is shut.

Valuation3/4 ↑

At 28.8 times trailing operating profit and 13.9 times FY2028's expected, it pays for visible profit; Q2 FY2027's margin may be the peak.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Revenue, margins, receivables and guarantees are filed and the market measured by Dell'Oro; the FY2028 demand and financing share rest on management alone.

The Verdict

We rate NVIDIA attractive. It sells the computers most AI is built on, its data-centre sales more than doubled in a year, and most AI software is written for its platform, so the business is solid, though custom chips from rivals are growing faster. The price is fair: at about 15 times next year's expected earnings per share, it is about right for profits already in view, with nothing for the boom lasting beyond that. The view hinges on how much of next year's growth NVIDIA is paying for itself, by lending to and guaranteeing its own buyers, and on cash arriving on time.

The long caseClouds and AI labs are building data centres faster than chips can be supplied, and most of them run on NVIDIA's computers, so its sales keep climbing.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C02facthigh confidence
Q2 FY2027 revenue was $96,221M, up 106% from $46,743M. Data Center was $89,023M (+117%): Hyperscale $48,710M (+102%) and AI Clouds, Industrial and Enterprise $40,313M (+138%). Edge Computing was $7,198M (+27%). Data Center grew 18.3% on Q1 FY2027.
historical · Q2 FY2027written 2026-10-04
C20inferencemedium confidence
NVIDIA's position rests on a switching cost: AI software is written for CUDA and its libraries, and NVIDIA sells chips, networking and software as one tested system, so a rival must match the hardware and persuade developers to move.
derivedC21's 7.5 million CUDA developers and 20 years of CUDA, C16's AMD still at $6.7B a quarter despite a 6 GW OpenAI deal, and C15's spending concentrated on NVIDIA
against this

The largest buyers write their own software stacks and run custom chips at scale (C17, C18), so the switching cost binds smaller buyers more than the ones paying most.

current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C22estimatemedium confidence
Against AMD's $6.7B data-centre segment and Broadcom's $16.7B of AI chips in their nearest quarters, NVIDIA's $89.0B is about 79% of the three, but Broadcom grew 221% against NVIDIA's 117%.
against this

Google, Amazon and Microsoft's in-house chips are not sold through Broadcom alone and appear in none of the three figures (C18), so custom share is understated.

historical · calendar Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C31estimatemedium confidence
At $233.95 the shares are about 25 times FY2027's expected earnings per share, 15 times FY2028's and 11 times FY2029's, and enterprise value is about 13.9 times FY2028's expected operating profit; the forecasts themselves have profit flat to falling after FY2030.
against this

Consensus FY2028 already assumes the 70% guide (C10, C30); if a quarter of it is financed demand that does not recur (C09), the true multiple is higher.

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C09management claimmedium confidence
Management says NVIDIA has invested nearly $50B in frontier AI labs, will give credit support for about 2 GW at another lab, and expects demand from AI labs it helps finance to be roughly a quarter of next year's business; it says some will call this circular financing.
against this
  • The Wall Street Journal reported on August 27, 2026 that NVIDIA paused some revenue-sharing credit deals with AI clouds (C42), so the scheme is still changing.
  • Management says every customer is investment grade or backed by one, and the SB Energy guarantee ends if OpenAI earns a satisfactory credit rating (C44).
forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C06facthigh confidence
Operating cash flow fell to $24,077M in Q2 FY2027 from $50,344M in Q1, 40% of net income, as receivables rose to $63,059M from $38,466M in January. Days sales outstanding rose to 60 from 45 on longer terms for investment-grade customers, which the 10-Q puts at 90 days up to one year.
against this

The terms go to investment-grade buyers, and $15.6B of customer advances in deferred revenue (C46) shows other buyers paying ahead.

current state · 2026-07-26written 2026-10-04
01

The company

Training and running an AI model takes enormous numbers of small calculations done at once. NVIDIA designs the chips that do this, called GPUs, and sells them packed into whole racks with its own processors, networking and software.

The buyers are cloud companies such as Amazon and Microsoft, AI labs such as OpenAI, newer AI clouds and big businesses. Data centres were 92.5% of its sales in Q2 FY2027. The rest is chips for gaming, design workstations and cars.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
NVIDIA sells an accelerated computing platform: GPUs, CPUs, networking, whole rack systems and the CUDA software beneath them, mainly to cloud providers, AI labs and enterprises. FY2026 revenue was $215,938M, of which Data Center was $193,737M.
historical · FY2026written 2026-10-04
C02facthigh confidence
Q2 FY2027 revenue was $96,221M, up 106% from $46,743M. Data Center was $89,023M (+117%): Hyperscale $48,710M (+102%) and AI Clouds, Industrial and Enterprise $40,313M (+138%). Edge Computing was $7,198M (+27%). Data Center grew 18.3% on Q1 FY2027.
historical · Q2 FY2027written 2026-10-04
C21facthigh confidence
CUDA was introduced in 2006 and over 7.5 million developers use it; NVIDIA has spent more than $76.7B on research since inception, and 31,000 of its 42,000 employees work in research and development.
current state · 2026-01-25written 2026-10-04
C41management claimlow confidence
Management says Vera Rubin gives about 30 times the throughput per megawatt of Hopper and earns NVIDIA about $40B of revenue per gigawatt, against about $25B for Blackwell and $18B for Hopper.
against this

OpenAI says its own Jalapeño chip serves more work per unit of power than existing hardware (C19).

current state · 2026-08-26written 2026-10-04

How it makes money

NVIDIA designs the chips and pays TSMC to make them, then sells finished systems at a high price. In Q2 FY2027 it kept 75 cents of every sales dollar after the cost of making the product, and 66 cents after all its running costs.

A new, faster platform every year keeps customers buying. Memory is getting dearer, so management expects the 75 cents to dip to 71 or 72 before price rises restore it.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C02facthigh confidence
Q2 FY2027 revenue was $96,221M, up 106% from $46,743M. Data Center was $89,023M (+117%): Hyperscale $48,710M (+102%) and AI Clouds, Industrial and Enterprise $40,313M (+138%). Edge Computing was $7,198M (+27%). Data Center grew 18.3% on Q1 FY2027.
historical · Q2 FY2027written 2026-10-04
C03facthigh confidence
Gross margin was 75.0% in Q2 FY2027 and operating income $63,734M, a 66.2% margin. For FY2026 gross margin was 71.1%, down from 75.0%, after a $4.5B charge on H20 chips it could not sell to China.
historical · Q2 FY2027 and FY2026written 2026-10-04
C04facthigh confidence
Operating income over the four quarters to July 26, 2026 was $197,579M: $36,010M in Q3 FY2026, $44,299M in Q4 FY2026, $53,536M in Q1 FY2027 and $63,734M in Q2 FY2027, on revenue of $302,970M.
historical · four quarters to Q2 FY2027written 2026-10-04
C10management claimmedium confidence
Management expects revenue to grow about 70% in FY2028, a supply-constrained outlook, with customers' forecasts pointing to doubling. It expects gross margin of 74% in Q3, 71% to 72% in Q4 as memory costs bite, then 72% to 73% in FY2028 as price increases take effect.
against this
  • Dell'Oro says some 2026 spending may have been pulled forward ahead of price increases (C14), which would flatter the year before the guided one.
  • FY2023's guide-to-downturn shows supply commitments can turn into $2.17B of provisions within a year (C37).
forwardwritten 2026-10-04
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (Q2 FY2027)How it earns it
Data Center: Hyperscale50.6%Rack-scale GPU systems, networking and software sold to the largest cloud providers for their own and rented AI work.
Data Center: AI Clouds, Industrial and Enterprise41.9%The same systems sold to AI-focused clouds, AI labs, companies and governments, directly or through server makers.
Edge Computing7.5%GPUs for gaming PCs and workstations and other computing outside the data centre, sold mainly through board and PC makers.

Who runs it

Jensen Huang co-founded NVIDIA in 1993 and still runs it; Colette Kress has run finance since 2013. Insiders own about 4%, nearly all Huang's. His bonus rides on sales, his shares on profit and the stock, none on collecting cash.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C52facthigh confidence
Jen-Hsun Huang co-founded NVIDIA in 1993 and has been its president and chief executive since; Colette Kress joined as chief financial officer in 2013 from Cisco. Huang's daughter and son are employed by the company, not reporting to him.
current state · 2026-02-20written 2026-10-04
C50facthigh confidence
As of March 23, 2026 Jen-Hsun Huang beneficially owned 870,604,104 shares, 3.58% of the company; the 14 directors and executive officers as a group owned 3.94%; BlackRock at 7.43% and Vanguard at 7.31% were the only holders above 5%.
current state · 2026-03-23written 2026-10-04
C51facthigh confidence
NVIDIA's annual cash bonus pays on revenue, its single-year PSUs on non-GAAP operating income, vesting over four years, and its multi-year PSUs on three-year shareholder return against the S&P 500; all the CEO's equity is PSUs. FY2026 paid the maximum on $215.9B of revenue and $137.3B of non-GAAP operating income.
against this
  • The FY2026 stretch goals were cut automatically after the H20 export controls, revenue from $190.0B to $160.0B and non-GAAP operating income from $120.0B to $96.0B, so the maximum was reached against lowered bars.
  • No metric pays on cash conversion or return on capital, so the receivables build in C06 costs the plan nothing.
historical · FY2026written 2026-10-04
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Since 2006 NVIDIA has given developers free software, called CUDA, for programming its chips, and more than 7.5 million use it. Most AI software is written for it. A rival chip has to be as fast and also persuade those developers to rewrite and retest their work.

That shows up in share. NVIDIA's data-centre sales were about 13 times those of AMD, its nearest rival selling the same kind of chip, and an outside research firm says spending stayed concentrated on NVIDIA.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C20inferencemedium confidence
NVIDIA's position rests on a switching cost: AI software is written for CUDA and its libraries, and NVIDIA sells chips, networking and software as one tested system, so a rival must match the hardware and persuade developers to move.
derivedC21's 7.5 million CUDA developers and 20 years of CUDA, C16's AMD still at $6.7B a quarter despite a 6 GW OpenAI deal, and C15's spending concentrated on NVIDIA
against this

The largest buyers write their own software stacks and run custom chips at scale (C17, C18), so the switching cost binds smaller buyers more than the ones paying most.

current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C21facthigh confidence
CUDA was introduced in 2006 and over 7.5 million developers use it; NVIDIA has spent more than $76.7B on research since inception, and 31,000 of its 42,000 employees work in research and development.
current state · 2026-01-25written 2026-10-04
C22estimatemedium confidence
Against AMD's $6.7B data-centre segment and Broadcom's $16.7B of AI chips in their nearest quarters, NVIDIA's $89.0B is about 79% of the three, but Broadcom grew 221% against NVIDIA's 117%.
against this

Google, Amazon and Microsoft's in-house chips are not sold through Broadcom alone and appear in none of the three figures (C18), so custom share is understated.

historical · calendar Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C16facthigh confidence
AMD's Data Center segment, which holds its Instinct AI GPUs and EPYC server CPUs, had revenue of $6,718M in Q2 2026, up from $3,240M, and operating income of $2,103M. AMD signed OpenAI for 6 GW of its GPUs in October 2025.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C15facthigh confidence
Dell'Oro measured data-centre capital spending up 92% in Q2 2026, concentrated in NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra and hyperscaler custom accelerators, with higher memory prices lifting server prices, and AI model builders and new clouds raising spending more quickly than other buyers.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04

The threat

The biggest buyers can design their own chips. Broadcom builds custom chips for the large clouds, and its AI chip sales grew 221% in a year against NVIDIA's 117%. Google now sells its own chips to outside customers, and OpenAI, NVIDIA's biggest financed customer, will start using its own chip in small numbers at the end of 2026.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C17facthigh confidence
Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue, mostly custom accelerators and networking built for hyperscalers, was $16.7B in its Q3 fiscal 2026, up 221% in a year and 54% in a quarter.
historical · Broadcom Q3 FY2026written 2026-10-04
C18facthigh confidence
Alphabet has agreed with a limited number of customers to sell TPU systems into their own data centres, recognised mainly in 2027, so Google's in-house chip is now also sold outside Google.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C19factmedium confidence
OpenAI says its Broadcom-built Jalapeño chip serves more AI work per unit of power than existing hardware; its head of hardware expects very small volumes at the end of 2026 and more significant deployment in 2027.
against this

OpenAI is also NVIDIA's largest financed customer, with commitments of about 12 GW and a $105.0B guaranteed site (C44), so Jalapeño adds to its NVIDIA purchases for now.

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C22estimatemedium confidence
Against AMD's $6.7B data-centre segment and Broadcom's $16.7B of AI chips in their nearest quarters, NVIDIA's $89.0B is about 79% of the three, but Broadcom grew 221% against NVIDIA's 117%.
against this

Google, Amazon and Microsoft's in-house chips are not sold through Broadcom alone and appear in none of the three figures (C18), so custom share is understated.

historical · calendar Q2 2026written 2026-10-04

The rivals: AVGO, GOOG, AMD, AMZN, MSFT, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalHow far alongPriced against it
AVGOBroadcom's custom accelerators for the large cloudsPriced against it: Same productOn saleSame product
GOOGGoogle's TPU systemsPriced against it: One segment onlyOn saleOne segment only
PrivateOpenAI's Jalapeño chip, built with BroadcomPriced against it: PrivateAnnouncedPrivate
AMDAMD Instinct GPUsPriced against it: Same productOn saleSame product
AMZN · MSFTAmazon's Trainium and Microsoft's Maia chipsPriced against it: One segment onlyOn saleOne segment only
PrivateHuawei's Ascend chipsPriced against it: PrivateOn salePrivate
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

Dell'Oro, a research firm, measured worldwide spending on data centres up 57% in 2025 and up 92% in Q2 2026, and expects more than $1T this year, much of it on well over 10 million high-end AI chips.

Part of that growth is memory getting dearer rather than more computers being built. Nobody independent publishes how much computing each buyer installs, so the market can be bounded but not counted.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C13facthigh confidence
Dell'Oro measured worldwide data-centre capital spending up 57% in 2025 and forecasts more than $1T in 2026, driven by well over 10 million high-end accelerators; the top four US clouds raised theirs 76% in 2025 and 78% in Q1 2026.
against this

Part of the dollar growth is memory and storage prices lifting server prices, not more computing (C15).

current state · 2026-06-10written 2026-10-04
C15facthigh confidence
Dell'Oro measured data-centre capital spending up 92% in Q2 2026, concentrated in NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra and hyperscaler custom accelerators, with higher memory prices lifting server prices, and AI model builders and new clouds raising spending more quickly than other buyers.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04

Who has signed

Few buyers have signed for fixed amounts. Customers have paid $15.6B in advance. Meta agreed a multiyear partnership for millions of chips without a number attached. The biggest promise runs the other way: NVIDIA guarantees up to $105B on an Ohio data-centre campus leased to an OpenAI company, which will use NVIDIA's computers.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C44facthigh confidence
NVIDIA guarantees up to $105B of residual value on SB Energy's Ohio campus, about 4.25 GW in nine phases from fiscal 2029 on 20-year leases to an OpenAI affiliate, with an option on 3.8 GW more; the guarantee ends if OpenAI gains a satisfactory credit rating, and OpenAI indemnifies NVIDIA.
current state · 2026-08-26written 2026-10-04
C46facthigh confidence
Deferred revenue additions were $17,709M in the half-year, including $15.6B of customer advances.
current state · 2026-07-26written 2026-10-04
C48facthigh confidence
In FY2026 NVIDIA announced a multiyear partnership with Meta covering millions of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs, and an investment in Anthropic, which runs Claude on NVIDIA systems in Azure.
current state · 2026-02-25written 2026-10-04
C12management claimmedium confidence
Management says the top five cloud providers will spend about $800B on capital in 2026 and $1.3T in 2027, that AWS will deploy 2 million more NVIDIA GPUs through Q2 FY2029, and that new AI clouds go from about 3 GW installed to 8 GW by the end of 2026.
against this

Dell'Oro warns that this level of investment raises the potential for overcapacity (C14).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
Where the growth is coming from, business by business

Where the growth is coming from

BusinessShare of revenueGrowth: last quarterLast half-yearLast yearShare in 3 years at its half-year rate
Data Center93%+116.6%+104.8%+89.5%98%
Rest of the company7%+27.5%+28.0%+34.9%2%
Whole company100%+105.9%+95.8%+83.4%100%

On the filed split through 2026-07-26, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 99% next year and 102% in year 3, against 83.4% over the last twelve months. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.

How we read it: Data Center is 92.5% of revenue and the blend is essentially that business; the score believes the Data Center rate, and caps it for the financed share, not for the mix.

04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Fast

Sales grew 83% over the twelve months to Jul 2026, faster than the 65% in the year to Jan 2026.

Jan 2022: $26.9BJan 2023: $27.0BJan 2024: $60.9BJan 2025: $130BJan 2026: $216B12 mo to Jul 2026: $303B$26.9B$303B
Is it profitable?Strong

Operating margin is 65%, up from 54% in the year to Jan 2024.

Jan 2022: 37%Jan 2023: 16%Jan 2024: 54%Jan 2025: 62%Jan 2026: 60%12 mo to Jul 2026: 65%37%65%
Does growth pay off?Pays off

Running costs take 9¢ of each sales dollar, down from 28¢ in the year to Jan 2022.

Jan 2022: 28¢Jan 2023: 41¢Jan 2024: 19¢Jan 2025: 13¢Jan 2026: 11¢12 mo to Jul 2026: 9¢28¢9¢
Does it earn good returns?Strong

Each dollar put into the business earns 89% a year after tax, up from 32% in the year to Jan 2022.

Jan 2022: 32%Jan 2023: 12%Jan 2024: 68%Jan 2025: 101%Jan 2026: 87%12 mo to Jul 2026: 89%32%89%
Is it making cash?Strong

It turned 42% of sales into free cash, $127B over the last twelve months.

Jan 2022: $8.13BJan 2023: $3.81BJan 2024: $27.0BJan 2025: $60.9BJan 2026: $96.7B12 mo to Jul 2026: $127B$8.13B$127B
Is the balance sheet safe?Net cash

It holds $56.6B of cash against $33.4B of debt, $23.2B more cash than it owes.

Jan 2022: $10.3BJan 2023: $2.34BJan 2024: $16.3BJan 2025: $34.7BJan 2026: $41.2B12 mo to Jul 2026: $23.2B$10.3B$23.2B
Are shares being diluted?Stable

The share count fell 3.1% in 3.5 years, and pay in shares costs 2.4% of sales.

Jan 2023: 25.1BJan 2024: 24.9BJan 2025: 24.8BJan 2026: 24.5B12 mo to Jul 2026: 24.3B25.1B24.3B
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in January.

Jan 2022Jan 2023Jan 2024Jan 2025Jan 202612 mo to Jul 2026
Size and growth
Sales$26.9B$27.0B$60.9B$130B$216B$303B
Sales growth+61%+0.2%+126%+114%+65%+83%
Profit
Gross margin65%57%73%75%71%75%
Operating margin37%16%54%62%60%65%
Net margin36%16%49%56%56%64%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development20%27%14%9.9%8.6%7.8%
Selling, general and admin8.0%9.0%4.4%2.7%2.1%1.7%
Pay in shares7.4%10%5.8%3.6%3.0%2.4%
Capital spending3.6%6.8%1.8%2.5%2.8%2.4%
Cash
Cash from operations$9.11B$5.64B$28.1B$64.1B$103B$134B
Free cash flow$8.13B$3.81B$27.0B$60.9B$96.7B$127B
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$21.2B$13.3B$26.0B$43.2B$49.7B$56.6B
Debt$10.9B$11.0B$9.71B$8.46B$8.47B$33.4B
Net cash$10.3B$2.34B$16.3B$34.7B$41.2B$23.2B
Returns and shares
Return on capital32%12%68%101%87%89%
Shares (diluted)-25.1B24.9B24.8B24.5B24.3B

What growth costs

Growth keeps making NVIDIA more profitable: research spending rises, but sales rise far faster, so each new sale costs less to win. A flat year reverses that, as the last downturn showed.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C56facthigh confidence
Per sales dollar, R&D fell from 23.5 cents in FY2021 to 8.6 in FY2026 and 7.8 over the four quarters to July 2026, selling, general and administrative from 11.6 to 2.1 and 1.7, and stock pay from 8.4 to 3.0 and 2.4; R&D dollars rose 4.7 times to FY2026 while revenue rose 13 times.
against this
  • In FY2023, when revenue stalled, R&D rose to 27.2 cents per sales dollar and operating margin fell to 15.7% from 37.3% (C37), so the leverage runs both ways.
  • Operating expenses rose 10% to 11% in Q2 FY2027 alone, on computing infrastructure and pay (S06).
historical · FY2021 to the four quarters to July 2026written 2026-10-04
C37facthigh confidence
In the last downturn, FY2023, revenue was flat at $26,974M, Gaming fell 27% to $9.07B as channel inventory piled up, Data Center still grew 41% to $15.01B, and NVIDIA took $2.17B of provisions for excess inventory and supply commitments.
historical · FY2023written 2026-10-04

The last report (26 Aug)

Quarter ended July 2026, filed figures.

106%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
17.9%
Growth from the quarter before
against 19.8% the quarter before that
66¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

On the surface Q2 FY2027 was another record. Sales rose 106% to $96.2B, data-centre sales 117%, and NVIDIA kept 66 cents of each sales dollar as operating profit. It expects $108.0B next quarter.

Underneath, two things changed. $7.8B of profit was gains on shares NVIDIA owns in other companies, not chip sales. And cash from operations fell to $24.1B from $50.3B the quarter before, because customers were given longer to pay: up to a year for the strongest buyers.

What it did to the thesisIt proved demand is still rising and that NVIDIA can raise prices into it. It left open how good the profit is, because more of it is arriving as money owed and as paper gains, and the next report has to show the cash catching up.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $2.22 against $2.09 expected; $2.46 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C02facthigh confidence
Q2 FY2027 revenue was $96,221M, up 106% from $46,743M. Data Center was $89,023M (+117%): Hyperscale $48,710M (+102%) and AI Clouds, Industrial and Enterprise $40,313M (+138%). Edge Computing was $7,198M (+27%). Data Center grew 18.3% on Q1 FY2027.
historical · Q2 FY2027written 2026-10-04
C03facthigh confidence
Gross margin was 75.0% in Q2 FY2027 and operating income $63,734M, a 66.2% margin. For FY2026 gross margin was 71.1%, down from 75.0%, after a $4.5B charge on H20 chips it could not sell to China.
historical · Q2 FY2027 and FY2026written 2026-10-04
C05facthigh confidence
Q2 FY2027 net income of $59,688M included $7,771M of gains on equity investments, $23,707M in the half-year. GAAP diluted EPS was $2.46 and non-GAAP $2.22, which excludes those gains and, from Q1 FY2027, includes stock pay.
historical · Q2 FY2027written 2026-10-04
C06facthigh confidence
Operating cash flow fell to $24,077M in Q2 FY2027 from $50,344M in Q1, 40% of net income, as receivables rose to $63,059M from $38,466M in January. Days sales outstanding rose to 60 from 45 on longer terms for investment-grade customers, which the 10-Q puts at 90 days up to one year.
against this

The terms go to investment-grade buyers, and $15.6B of customer advances in deferred revenue (C46) shows other buyers paying ahead.

current state · 2026-07-26written 2026-10-04
C11facthigh confidence
The Q3 FY2027 outlook is revenue of $108.0B plus or minus 2%, with no China data-centre computing, and gross margin of 74.0% plus or minus 0.5 points.
forwardwritten 2026-10-04
What management did with the money

Spare cash mostly buys back shares, $39.8B in six months; about $11.9B in cash is going on Hugging Face, home of open AI models.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 3 purchases and 34 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C23facthigh confidence
Shares outstanding fell to 24,147M at July 26, 2026 from 24,304M in January; NVIDIA bought 203M shares for $39.8B in the half-year, and on September 28 added $150B, leaving $235B, expected to run through fiscal 2028. The quarterly dividend rose to $0.25 from $0.01.
current state · 2026-09-28written 2026-10-04
C25facthigh confidence
NVIDIA agreed on September 2, 2026 to buy Hugging Face for about $11.9B in cash plus about $1.0B of retention pay, closing in the first half of 2027, and paid $2,944M in Q2 FY2027 for a non-exclusive licence of Groq's technology.
current state · 2026-09-02written 2026-10-04
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Fair. The price pays for profits NVIDIA is already earning and the growth already guided for next year, and assumes almost nothing after that.

Share price
$233.95
close,
Price for each $1 of yearly profit
29.4
its 6-year normal 57.2
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
24.3
its 6-year normal 49.1

Over the past year sales per share rose 85.2% while the price buyers pay for each dollar of sales fell 32.5%, so the shares rose only 24.9%.

The test is close. NVIDIA reports Q3 FY2027 on 17 November 2026, and that report is the first to show whether customers are paying on time and whether the financing of AI labs is growing.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C27facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $233.95 on October 2, 2026, a market value of $5,666.5B and enterprise value of $5,682.9B by the vendor's count; over 252 sessions the price rose 24.9% while sales per share rose 85.2% and the multiple fell 32.5%.
current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C35facthigh confidence
From $207.04 on October 29, 2025 the shares fell to $165.17 by March 30, 2026, when Reuters reported the cheapest P/E since before ChatGPT on war and AI worries; two quarters of 85% and 106% growth followed.
historical · 2025-10 to 2026-07written 2026-10-04
C36facthigh confidence
On the Q2 FY2027 call management named the circular financing objection itself; the shares rose 8.7% the next day, to $227.98 from $209.66.
historical · 2026-08written 2026-10-04
C11facthigh confidence
The Q3 FY2027 outlook is revenue of $108.0B plus or minus 2%, with no China data-centre computing, and gross margin of 74.0% plus or minus 0.5 points.
forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C09management claimmedium confidence
Management says NVIDIA has invested nearly $50B in frontier AI labs, will give credit support for about 2 GW at another lab, and expects demand from AI labs it helps finance to be roughly a quarter of next year's business; it says some will call this circular financing.
against this
  • The Wall Street Journal reported on August 27, 2026 that NVIDIA paused some revenue-sharing credit deals with AI clouds (C42), so the scheme is still changing.
  • Management says every customer is investment grade or backed by one, and the SB Energy guarantee ends if OpenAI earns a satisfactory credit rating (C44).
forwardwritten 2026-10-04
How we read the multiple

We measure the price against operating profit, the money the business makes before tax and before gains on shares it holds, because those gains have swelled reported profit.

  1. Buyers pay about 29 dollars for each dollar of last year's operating profit, debt included.
  2. At last quarter's pace that falls to about 22 dollars.
  3. On the operating profit analysts expect in FY2028, it is about 14 dollars.
  4. Forecasters themselves have profit flat or falling after FY2030, so the price assumes the boom fades.

Against its own history. Far below what buyers paid over the past six years, but those years had much smaller profits, so part of the gap is the market doubting today's profits will last.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C29estimatehigh confidence
Enterprise value is about 28.8 times trailing operating profit of $197,579M, and about 22.3 times Q2 FY2027's operating profit of $63,734M run for a year.
against this

Q2 FY2027 sits at a 66.2% operating margin, the highest the company has reported, so a year at that rate assumes the peak holds.

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C30factmedium confidence
Analysts expect earnings of $9.27 a share for FY2027, $15.75 for FY2028 (range $13.64 to $17.28), $21.38 for FY2029, $23.0 for FY2030 and $20.0 for FY2031, with FY2028 sales of $691.8B and operating profit of $409.2B.
current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C31estimatemedium confidence
At $233.95 the shares are about 25 times FY2027's expected earnings per share, 15 times FY2028's and 11 times FY2029's, and enterprise value is about 13.9 times FY2028's expected operating profit; the forecasts themselves have profit flat to falling after FY2030.
against this

Consensus FY2028 already assumes the 70% guide (C10, C30); if a quarter of it is financed demand that does not recur (C09), the true multiple is higher.

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C04facthigh confidence
Operating income over the four quarters to July 26, 2026 was $197,579M: $36,010M in Q3 FY2026, $44,299M in Q4 FY2026, $53,536M in Q1 FY2027 and $63,734M in Q2 FY2027, on revenue of $302,970M.
historical · four quarters to Q2 FY2027written 2026-10-04
C05facthigh confidence
Q2 FY2027 net income of $59,688M included $7,771M of gains on equity investments, $23,707M in the half-year. GAAP diluted EPS was $2.46 and non-GAAP $2.22, which excludes those gains and, from Q1 FY2027, includes stock pay.
historical · Q2 FY2027written 2026-10-04
Priced against its rivals

There is no group to price it against. No filed cohort to price against; against its own six-year history the multiple sits well below the median. The price is judged against its own history instead.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd., Alibaba Group and Baidu, Inc., Cerebras, SambaNova and other AI chip start-ups.

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

NVIDIA is the indispensable supplier of the AI boom, its results keep beating forecasts, and the shares are cheap for the growth.

We believe

The shares are cheap only if next year's growth is real demand; we think most of it is, but NVIDIA is financing part of it.

The market argues about whether the boom lasts, but the price already assumes it fades after FY2028. The question it skips is how much of FY2028 NVIDIA is paying for: management says about a quarter of next year's business comes from AI labs it helps finance.

Against us: an outside research firm warns of too many data centres being built and some spending brought forward to beat price rises.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
95%
of 61, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
95%
of 62, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C32facthigh confidence
Analysts were 95.1% positive across 61 on October 1, 2026 against 93.8% of 65 in February, while the average price target of the last month was 17.9% below the year's; the last eight results beat the EPS estimate, and short interest was 1.3% of float at the September 15 settlement.
current state · 2026-10-01written 2026-10-04
C31estimatemedium confidence
At $233.95 the shares are about 25 times FY2027's expected earnings per share, 15 times FY2028's and 11 times FY2029's, and enterprise value is about 13.9 times FY2028's expected operating profit; the forecasts themselves have profit flat to falling after FY2030.
against this

Consensus FY2028 already assumes the 70% guide (C10, C30); if a quarter of it is financed demand that does not recur (C09), the true multiple is higher.

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C09management claimmedium confidence
Management says NVIDIA has invested nearly $50B in frontier AI labs, will give credit support for about 2 GW at another lab, and expects demand from AI labs it helps finance to be roughly a quarter of next year's business; it says some will call this circular financing.
against this
  • The Wall Street Journal reported on August 27, 2026 that NVIDIA paused some revenue-sharing credit deals with AI clouds (C42), so the scheme is still changing.
  • Management says every customer is investment grade or backed by one, and the SB Energy guarantee ends if OpenAI earns a satisfactory credit rating (C44).
forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C06facthigh confidence
Operating cash flow fell to $24,077M in Q2 FY2027 from $50,344M in Q1, 40% of net income, as receivables rose to $63,059M from $38,466M in January. Days sales outstanding rose to 60 from 45 on longer terms for investment-grade customers, which the 10-Q puts at 90 days up to one year.
against this

The terms go to investment-grade buyers, and $15.6B of customer advances in deferred revenue (C46) shows other buyers paying ahead.

current state · 2026-07-26written 2026-10-04
C40inferencemedium confidence
Demand through FY2028 is likely to hold: outside spending measures are rising at 57% to 92%, NVIDIA calls itself supply-limited, and it is raising prices into that, which a buyer with slack would refuse.
derivedC13 and C15's measured spending, C10's supply-constrained guide and price increases, C12's customer plans
against this

Dell'Oro warns of overcapacity and pull-forward (C14), and a quarter of next year depends on labs NVIDIA finances (C09).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C14facthigh confidence
Dell'Oro says this level of investment raises the potential for overcapacity in AI infrastructure, and that some 2026 spending may have been pulled forward ahead of expected price increases.
current state · 2026-06-10written 2026-10-04
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • A few buyers Three customers were 16%, 15% and 13% of half-year sales, and OpenAI is at once a customer, an investment and the tenant behind a $105B guarantee.
  • Customers building their own Broadcom's custom chips are growing faster than NVIDIA's, Google now sells its chips outside, and OpenAI starts its own in late 2026.
  • A downturn hits hard In FY2023 sales went flat and NVIDIA wrote off $2.17B of stock and supply promises; today it has promised $279B to suppliers.
  • China is closed The outlook assumes no data-centre sales in China, which export rules have shut, and Huawei fills that market.
  • One place makes everything Its chips are made mainly by TSMC in Taiwan, so a disruption there would stop supply.
  • Regulators are looking The Justice Department is reported to be examining NVIDIA's Groq licensing deal.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C07facthigh confidence
One direct customer was 16% of Q2 FY2027 revenue; in the half-year three were 16%, 15% and 13%. Five direct customers held 22%, 14%, 13%, 11% and 10% of receivables, and one AI research company bought a meaningful amount through cloud providers.
current state · 2026-07-26written 2026-10-04
C44facthigh confidence
NVIDIA guarantees up to $105B of residual value on SB Energy's Ohio campus, about 4.25 GW in nine phases from fiscal 2029 on 20-year leases to an OpenAI affiliate, with an option on 3.8 GW more; the guarantee ends if OpenAI gains a satisfactory credit rating, and OpenAI indemnifies NVIDIA.
current state · 2026-08-26written 2026-10-04
C17facthigh confidence
Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue, mostly custom accelerators and networking built for hyperscalers, was $16.7B in its Q3 fiscal 2026, up 221% in a year and 54% in a quarter.
historical · Broadcom Q3 FY2026written 2026-10-04
C37facthigh confidence
In the last downturn, FY2023, revenue was flat at $26,974M, Gaming fell 27% to $9.07B as channel inventory piled up, Data Center still grew 41% to $15.01B, and NVIDIA took $2.17B of provisions for excess inventory and supply commitments.
historical · FY2023written 2026-10-04
C33facthigh confidence
The Q3 FY2027 outlook assumes no China data-centre computing; H20 shipments to China were under 1% of Data Center revenue in Q2, and customers headquartered outside the US were 38% of Q2 revenue.
current state · 2026-07-26written 2026-10-04
C43factmedium confidence
The New York Times reported on September 9, 2026 that the Justice Department is examining NVIDIA's licensing deal with Groq.
current state · 2026-09-09written 2026-10-04
C45facthigh confidence
NVIDIA depends on TSMC and Samsung for wafers, on SK Hynix, Micron and Samsung for memory, and on Taiwan-based partners for assembly; Taiwan billed $26,985M of Q2 FY2027 revenue.
current state · 2026-07-26written 2026-10-04
What we still do not know
  • How much of next year's sales comes from buyers NVIDIA lends to, invests in or guarantees; management gives only a rough quarter.
  • Which of its revenue-sharing deals with AI clouds were paused in August, and whether that changes next year's demand.
  • How many custom chips the big clouds are installing instead of NVIDIA's; no free source counts units.
  • Whether independent tests confirm management's claims for its newest chips.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C09management claimmedium confidence
Management says NVIDIA has invested nearly $50B in frontier AI labs, will give credit support for about 2 GW at another lab, and expects demand from AI labs it helps finance to be roughly a quarter of next year's business; it says some will call this circular financing.
against this
  • The Wall Street Journal reported on August 27, 2026 that NVIDIA paused some revenue-sharing credit deals with AI clouds (C42), so the scheme is still changing.
  • Management says every customer is investment grade or backed by one, and the SB Energy guarantee ends if OpenAI earns a satisfactory credit rating (C44).
forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C42factmedium confidence
The Wall Street Journal reported that NVIDIA cut a planned $250B guarantee for an OpenAI data centre, filed at $105.0B, and on August 27, 2026 that it paused some deals giving AI clouds credit support for a share of revenue.
current state · 2026-08-27written 2026-10-04
C22estimatemedium confidence
Against AMD's $6.7B data-centre segment and Broadcom's $16.7B of AI chips in their nearest quarters, NVIDIA's $89.0B is about 79% of the three, but Broadcom grew 221% against NVIDIA's 117%.
against this

Google, Amazon and Microsoft's in-house chips are not sold through Broadcom alone and appear in none of the three figures (C18), so custom share is understated.

historical · calendar Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C41management claimlow confidence
Management says Vera Rubin gives about 30 times the throughput per megawatt of Hopper and earns NVIDIA about $40B of revenue per gigawatt, against about $25B for Blackwell and $18B for Hopper.
against this

OpenAI says its own Jalapeño chip serves more work per unit of power than existing hardware (C19).

current state · 2026-08-26written 2026-10-04

What would change our view

  1. Attractive→NeutralThe price runs ahead of next year's profit

    It needs:

    • ○Buyers pay about 41 dollars for each dollar of last year's operating profit, debt included, about 20 times what analysts expect for FY2028.about ≈$336.30 today, 44% above the last close
  2. Attractive→NeutralData-centre demand turns down

    It needs any of:

    • ○Data-centre sales fall from one quarter to the next, after rising 18.3% in Q2 FY2027.checked at the next results, due by 17 Nov
    • ○NVIDIA keeps less than 70 cents of each sales dollar after making the product, from 75 cents.checked at the next results, due by 17 Nov
  3. Attractive→NeutralGrowth that NVIDIA pays for

    It needs any of:

    • ○Customers take more than 75 days on average to pay, up from 60.checked at the next results, due by 17 Nov
    • ○NVIDIA's guarantees for customers' data centres rise above $150B, from $108.5B.checked at the next results, due by 17 Nov
We would also be wrong if
  • Sales grow less than 40% in FY2028, against the roughly 70% guided.

What is coming

  • 21 October 2026 GTC Berlin keynote by Jensen Huang: Whether the Vera Rubin ramp and the yearly platform cadence hold as described; a slip would test the switching-cost argument that rests on staying a generation ahead.
Every dated event ahead
  • 21 October 2026 GTC Berlin keynote by Jensen Huang: Whether the Vera Rubin ramp and the yearly platform cadence hold as described; a slip would test the switching-cost argument that rests on staying a generation ahead.
  • 17 November 2026 Q3 FY2027 results: Revenue against the $108.0B guide, gross margin against 74%, receivable days against 60, Rubin near a fifth of Data Center, and the 70% FY2028 outlook kept or cut.
  • February 2027 Q4 FY2027 results and the FY2027 10-K: Whether gross margin bottoms at 71% to 72% as guided, Hyperscale reaccelerates on Rubin supply, and the FY2028 outlook survives a full year of memory costs.
  • June 2027 Hugging Face acquisition closes: Whether the largest cash deal since Mellanox closes on its terms while regulators are already examining the Groq licence.
Since we wrote this
Written
4 Oct
Price the thesis read
$233.95
2 Oct
  • 28 OctNewsThe Justice Department is asking Nvidia how buying Hugging Face could affect rivals. View heldDOJ asks Nvidia about its $12.9B Hugging Face purchase.
  • 9 OctNewsOpenAI's revenue run rate is $50B, not the $68B that circulated; AI stocks fell. View heldOpenAI told investors its run rate is about $50B, below the $68B figure that circulated.
  • 7 OctNewsSpaceX reportedly seeks $40B of debt for Nvidia chips; only press reports exist. View heldFT reports SpaceX seeks $40B of debt to buy Nvidia chips; reporting only, no primary source.
  • 6 OctNewsGroq's stockholders sue Nvidia over the $20B deal; buyback coverage repeats a known step. View heldGroq stockholders sue Nvidia over the $20B Groq deal; coverage of the larger buyback authorization.
  • 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
  • 4 OctThesis writtenAttractive, medium convictionWritten six weeks before Q3 FY2027 results, after the 70% FY2028 guide, the SB Energy guarantee and a slower quarter for cash, with the shares at $233.95.
  • 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.

Also checked 6 times with nothing new to act on.

Sources 28

Where this came from

Sources - 28

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-25
    Item 1 (platform, segments, named competitors, CUDA developers, R&D since inception, workforce), suppliers, FY2026 gross margin and the H20 charge
    backsC01C03C21C45C47C52C53C56C57
  2. S02primarycompany release2026-08-26
    revenue by platform, gross margin, operating income by quarter, other income, EPS on both bases, the Q3 FY2027 outlook
    backsC02C03C04C05C11C22C29C33C34C35C38
  3. S03primarycompany release2026-02-25
    Q3 and Q4 FY2026 operating income, FY2026 Data Center revenue, the Q1 FY2027 outlook, the Meta partnership, capital returned
    backsC01C04C34C38C48
  4. S04primarycompany filing2026-08-26
    customer and receivable concentration, payment terms, commitments, guarantees, equity investments, deferred revenue, share count, buybacks, debt, geography
    backsC06C07C08C23C24C25C33C44C45C46C49C56
  5. S05primarycompany release2026-08-26
    Hyperscale and ACIE revenue, days sales outstanding, cash flow, free cash flow, commitments table, guarantees, cash and debt
    backsC02C05C06C08C24
  6. S06primarytranscript2026-08-26
    Q2 FY2027 earnings call transcript (held 2026-08-26)
    data/cache/transcripts/NVDA-2027Q2.json
    the FY2028 outlook, gross margin path, AI lab financing and its share of next year, hyperscaler capital spending, revenue per gigawatt; analysts from Morgan Stanley, Bernstein, BofA, UBS, Goldman Sachs and others
    We expect to grow revenue by approximately 70% in fiscal 2028. This is a supply-constrained outlook.
    backsC09C10C12C33C36C41C55C58
  7. S07secondaryvendor data2026-10-04
    Research pack (FMP market tier and filed statements), frozen at content/NVDA/research-pack.json
    content/NVDA/research-pack.json
    price, market value, enterprise value, returns and their decomposition, six-year valuation history, consensus estimates and history, price-target drift, earnings history, insider statistics
    backsC26C27C28C29C30C31C32C38
  8. S08primaryindustry data2026-03-17
    worldwide data-centre capital spending up 57% in 2025, more than $1T forecast for 2026, more than 10M high-end accelerators, the overcapacity warning
    We forecast full-year 2026 data center capex to surpass $1 trillion. The trillion-dollar threshold marks a major milestone, supported by well over 10 M high-end accelerators as the primary capex driver
    backsC13C14
  9. S09primaryindustry data2026-06-10
    the 2026 outlook raised to more than $1T, the top four US clouds up 78%, the pull-forward caution
    While near-term demand remains healthy, some spending may have been pulled forward ahead of expected price increases later this year
    backsC13C14
  10. S10primaryindustry data2026-09-16
    Q2 2026 spending up 92%, where it went, memory prices lifting server prices, neoclouds and AI model builders growing fastest
    Spending remained concentrated in NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra and hyperscaler custom accelerators
    backsC15
  11. S11primarycompany filing2026-08-05
    AMD's Data Center segment revenue and operating income for Q2 2026
    backsC16C22
  12. S12primarycompany filing2026-02-04
    the Instinct GPU line and its buyers, the OpenAI agreement for 6 GW of AMD GPUs
    backsC16
  13. S13primarycompany release2026-09-02
    Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue, mostly custom accelerators and networking for hyperscalers
    Q3 AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7 billion grew 221% year-over-year, and 54% quarter-over-quarter
    backsC17C22
  14. S14primarycompany filing2026-07-23
    Alphabet selling TPU systems to outside customers, recognised mainly in 2027
    agreements with a limited number of customers to sell TPU systems
    backsC18
  15. S15secondarynews2026-08-26
    OpenAI's account of its Broadcom-built Jalapeño chip and Richard Ho's deployment timing, quoted from OpenAI's report and talk
    Jalapeño can serve more AI work per unit of power, while also returning responses more quickly.
    backsC19
  16. S16primarycompany release2026-09-28
    the buyback increase and the period it is expected to run
    authorized a $150 billion increase to the share repurchase program, raising the remaining total program to $235 billion
    backsC23
  17. S17primarycompany filing2026-09-03
    price, retention pool, closing period and the commitment to keep the platform open to other chips
    backsC25
  18. S18primarycompany filing2026-10-04
    open-market sales and purchases in the year, the Rule 10b5-1 flag on each
    backsC26
  19. S19primaryregulator2026-09-15
    short interest in NVDA and its share of float
    backsC32
  20. S20secondaryvendor data2026-10-04
    closing prices around each repricing
    backsC34C35C36
  21. S21secondarynews2025-01-28
    the objection stated in January 2025, from the article summary in FMP's news feed
    concerns over a low-cost artificial intelligence model from Chinese startup DeepSeek stripped 17% off its shares, or $593 billion from its market value
    backsC34
  22. S22secondarynews2026-03-30
    the objection stated in March 2026, from the article summary in FMP's news feed
    Nvidia, the world's most valuable company, finds itself trading at its cheapest price-to-earnings multiple since before ChatGPT kicked off the AI boom
    backsC35
  23. S23primarycompany filing2023-02-24
    the last downturn: Data Center and Gaming revenue, inventory provisions, supply commitments
    backsC37C56
  24. S24secondarynews2026-08-27
    the reported pause, from the article summary in FMP's news feed
    Nvidia has paused some deals in a new financing initiative that offered credit support to AI cloud companies in exchange for a share of revenue
    backsC42
  25. S25secondarynews2026-08-14
    the guarantee as first planned, from the article summary in FMP's news feed
    Nvidia has downsized plans for a $250 billion guarantee for an OpenAI data center
    backsC42
  26. S26secondarynews2026-09-09
    the reported antitrust review of the Groq licence, headline only
    backsC43
  27. S27primarycompany filing2026-08-17
    the guarantee cap, the capacity and the OpenAI affiliate as tenant
    backsC42C44
  28. S28primarycompany filing2026-05-12
    beneficial ownership as of March 23, 2026, the pay plan's metrics and goals, the FY2026 payouts and the automatic goal cut after the H20 ban, related-person employment
    backsC50C51C52
Rendered from content/NVDA/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-04. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.