Fabrinet
Fabrinet builds lasers, optical modules and other precision parts to other companies' designs, mostly in Thailand, for buyers such as Cisco, NVIDIA, Nokia and Amazon.
The scores
Growth4/4 ↑
Revenue up 35.7% in fiscal 2026 and 44.6% in Q4, with 43% guided for Q1 fiscal 2027.
Business quality3/4 →
Qualified lines keep running products in place, as Cignal AI confirms, but NVIDIA added other suppliers and 12% gross margins show little pricing power.
Financial position4/4 →
$875.1M of cash, no debt before a $75M baht loan, and profitable every year.
Execution record4/4 ↑
Revenue beat the top of the guide twice running and growth rose every quarter of fiscal 2026.
Per share capture3/4 ↓
The share count is flat, but buybacks stopped, free cash flow fell to $4.2M and a minimum tax takes about a tenth of profit.
Potential2/4 →
A $26.8B market growing fast, but the upside is expected rather than committed: no minimum purchases, and it rests on cloud spending.
Risk profile3/4 →
Four customers are 57% of revenue and the plants sit in Thailand, where a 2011 flood cost customers output; no single ruling decides it.
Valuation3/4 ↑
At 22.5 times operating income the price needs about 14% yearly growth to 2029 at a 10% margin, under half the forecast pace.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Revenue, customers and cash are filed, but the new programs are unnamed and no one measures what share contract manufacturers build.
The Verdict
We rate Fabrinet neutral. It builds lasers and optical modules to other companies' designs, mostly in Thailand, and customers spend months approving each production line, so work rarely moves. The business is strong: revenue grew by about a third last year as Cisco, Nokia and Amazon more than replaced a shrinking NVIDIA. But it keeps only about a dime of profit per dollar, and its AI module line has stalled. After a 32% fall the price needs only about 14% growth a year, well under that record pace, so it is fair. The view hinges on AI module revenue growing again.
The long caseAI data centres buy far more optical links per server; Fabrinet's own AI module line must grow again for it to share in that.
The evidence under this - 9 claims
- NVIDIA moved from Fabrinet alone to several 800G sources, so qualification slowed a switch but did not stop it (S35, S23).
- No outside source gives a qualification time in months; the three-to-six-month figure is the company's (S28).
Some NVIDIA-designed products may be bought by other customers or distributors and counted under them, so NVIDIA's real share of Fabrinet's work may be higher than the filed percentage (S01, S19).
LightCounting says demand exceeded supply by 30% in 2026, which fits a shortage, but NVIDIA also added module suppliers in the same period, so lost share fits the numbers too (S12, S23, S35).
Excluding the Raytek gain, GAAP EPS was about $11.48 and the price 27 times it (C18).
- 2026-10-26editedre-struck at the 23 October close after a 32% fall; was 34.0 times at $463.69
Consensus for fiscal 2029 is $9.41B, 27% a year, on a single analyst (C31), so the price now asks for about half the pace forecast.
- 2026-10-26editedre-struck on C29's lower company value: the growth the price needs fell from 31% to 14% a year
The company
Fast networks send data as light. Turning electrical signals into light means lining up lasers, lenses and glass fibers to within a fraction of a hair's width, then sealing and testing the part. Doing that by the million is hard.
Fabrinet does it for companies that design these parts but would rather not run the factory. It buys the components, builds to the customer's design, tests and ships. NVIDIA and Nokia name it among their manufacturers, and Luminar says it builds to Luminar's own design.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
- NVIDIA moved from Fabrinet alone to several 800G sources, so qualification slowed a switch but did not stop it (S35, S23).
- No outside source gives a qualification time in months; the three-to-six-month figure is the company's (S28).
The same note says InnoLight is adding capacity in Thailand and Indonesia under a new brand (S28).
How it makes money
Fabrinet is paid per unit built, at a price reviewed regularly with each customer. It keeps about 12 cents of each dollar after the cost of parts and labour, and about 10 cents after running the company.
Nothing guarantees the next order. Agreements run up to three years with no minimum purchase, and customers send rolling forecasts. Four customers bought 57% of everything in fiscal 2026.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (fiscal 2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Data center | 47.9% | Builds optical transceivers and interconnect modules to customers' designs for AI and cloud data centres, paid a manufacturing price per unit. |
| Communications infrastructure | 33.3% | Builds telecom optical systems and components, such as coherent modules, for network equipment makers like Cisco and Nokia. |
| Automotive, industrial and others | 18.8% | Builds lidar, sensors, lasers, medical devices and other precision parts to customers' designs, plus its own custom optics and glass. |
Who runs it
Seamus Grady, who came from the contract manufacturer Sanmina, has run Fabrinet since 2017 and became chairman in 2025 when the founder left the board; Csaba Sverha has run finance since 2020. Insiders own under 1%, so the big holders are index funds. Pay rides on sales and an adjusted profit margin, none of it on cash, which matters in a year when new factories left almost no free cash.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Grady sold 22,451 shares in November 2025 (C36) and held 48,467 after the August 2026 vesting (C58), so the group figure has moved since the table was struck.
- No measure pays on cash flow, return on capital or the share price, so fiscal 2026's $4.2M of free cash flow (C21) costs the plan nothing.
- The margin goal is non-GAAP, which leaves out share pay.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
Before a customer orders in volume, it tests Fabrinet's production line, often for three to six months, against heat, damp and vibration. Moving a running product means doing that again elsewhere while supply stops, and an outside analyst, Cignal AI, says the largest cloud companies cannot switch suppliers easily.
The protection works line by line, not forever. NVIDIA once used only Fabrinet for its fastest modules and has since added other suppliers on new generations, which is where the contest happens.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
- NVIDIA moved from Fabrinet alone to several 800G sources, so qualification slowed a switch but did not stop it (S35, S23).
- No outside source gives a qualification time in months; the three-to-six-month figure is the company's (S28).
The same note says InnoLight is adding capacity in Thailand and Indonesia under a new brand (S28).
NVIDIA's own 10-K still names Fabrinet beside Hon Hai and Wistron as a contract manufacturer, and Fabrinet is in its co-packaged optics ecosystem (S19, S23).
The threat
The biggest rivals are the module makers who build for themselves. China's InnoLight and Eoptolink grew 60% and 187% in 2025 and sell to NVIDIA beside Fabrinet. Coherent and Lumentum run their own plants, and NVIDIA reserved capacity at both in 2026. Jabil, another contract manufacturer, now sells its own modules too.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
NVIDIA's own 10-K still names Fabrinet beside Hon Hai and Wistron as a contract manufacturer, and Fabrinet is in its co-packaged optics ecosystem (S19, S23).
Lasers are inputs to modules Fabrinet assembles, so the Lumentum deal may feed Fabrinet's lines rather than replace them (S25).
The rivals: LITE, COHR, CSCO, JBL, CLS, BHE, SANM, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | Where it competes | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LITE · COHR · CSCO | Customers' own plants: Lumentum, Coherent and Cisco's Acacia building modules in-housePriced against it: Different product | Optical communications manufacturing (data center and communications infrastructure) | On sale | Different product |
| InnoLight and Eoptolink, the two largest module makersPriced against it: Different product | Optical communications manufacturing (data center and communications infrastructure) | On sale | Different product | |
| COHR | Coherent's own 800G modules, with NVIDIA purchase commitmentsPriced against it: Different product | Optical communications manufacturing (data center and communications infrastructure) | On sale | Different product |
| JBL | Jabil, contract manufacturer with its own 1.6T modulesPriced against it: Different product | Optical communications manufacturing (data center and communications infrastructure) | On sale | Different product |
| CLS · BHE · SANM | General contract manufacturers: Celestica, Benchmark, Sanmina and VenturePriced against it: Different product | Automotive, industrial laser, sensor and medical manufacturing | On sale | Different product |
How big it could get
How big this could get
Optical modules and related products sold $26.8B in 2025, up 74%, by LightCounting's count. It expects the data center kind to grow another 65% in 2026, and Yole sees the market near $112.3B by 2031.
Fabrinet's slice is smaller than it looks. It earns a manufacturing fee, not the module's price, and nobody publishes how much of the market is built by outside factories rather than the brand owners themselves.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
Yole puts 2025 at $23.4B and LightCounting itself gives 58% growth for the total transceiver market in May, so scope and vintage move the figure (S14, S13).
- Dell'Oro attributes part of 2026's capex growth to memory prices, not added capacity, so spending may overstate the optics it buys (S18).
- Yole's 2025 base of $23.4B is below LightCounting's $26.8B, so the forecasters disagree on scope (S14).
LightCounting keeps 2027 to 2031 conservative after 2026 and warns of a drop while capex still grows (S12).
The categories were recast in the fourth quarter, so no series older than fiscal 2024 exists on this basis and earlier datacom and telecom figures are not comparable (S01, S03).
Who has signed
Amazon holds a right to buy up to 381,922 Fabrinet shares at $208.48, earned as it buys Fabrinet's products through 2032. Nobody else has committed to volumes.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
On the Amazon program Fabrinet was qualifying production line by line as a second source, not the only one (S33).
The results
The numbers
Sales grew 36% in the year to Jun 2026, faster than the 19% in the year before.
Operating margin is 10.0%, about where it was (9.5%) in the year to Jun 2023.
Running costs take 2¢ of each sales dollar, down from 3¢ in the year to Jun 2022.
Each dollar put into the business earns 18% a year after tax, about where it was (16%) in the year to Jun 2022.
It turned 0.1% of sales into free cash, $4.22M over the year.
Yearly sales growth has ranged from +9.0% to +36% over the last 5 years.
The share count fell 3.1% in 4.0 years, and pay in shares costs 0.7% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in June.
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | |||||
| Sales | $2.26B | $2.65B | $2.88B | $3.42B | $4.64B |
| Sales growth | +20% | +17% | +9.0% | +19% | +36% |
| Profit | |||||
| Gross margin | 12% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Operating margin | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 10.0% |
| Net margin | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10% | 9.7% | 10% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | |||||
| Selling, general and admin | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| Pay in shares | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| Capital spending | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 5.4% |
| Cash | |||||
| Cash from operations | $124M | $213M | $413M | $328M | $257M |
| Free cash flow | $34.7M | $152M | $366M | $207M | $4.22M |
| Balance sheet | |||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $478M | $550M | $859M | $934M | $875M |
| Debt | $27.4M | $12.2M | $0 | - | - |
| Net cash | $451M | $538M | $859M | - | - |
| Returns and shares | |||||
| Return on capital | 16% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 18% |
| Shares (diluted) | 37.4M | 36.9M | 36.6M | 36.3M | 36.3M |
What growth costs
Growing has made Fabrinet a little more profitable, but only because office costs barely rise while sales do. The cost of building the products rises in step with sales, so each sale earns about the same thin margin. The real price of growth is factories: it now spends far more on buildings and equipment for each dollar of sales than two years ago.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Gross margin peaked at 12.7% in fiscal 2023 and has slipped each year since, so the cost of building the products has grown slightly faster than sales.
The last report (17 Aug)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
Revenue reached $1.32B in Q4 fiscal 2026, up 44.6%, and growth rose in every quarter of the year. Management expects about 43% in the next quarter.
The mix was the story. Links between data centers neared a $1B yearly pace and telecom grew 40%, while the modules for AI clusters, the line most investors watch, were roughly flat after a dip blamed on parts shortages. Free cash flow for the quarter was negative as new buildings went up.
What it did to the thesisThe print showed the business growing faster without its biggest old customer, which supports the case. It also showed the AI module line still stalled and cash going into buildings, so it left open whether new module programs refill the gap the price assumes.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $4.10 against $3.81 expected.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
Management also said datacom transceivers were roughly flat in the quarter, so the data center line grew on interconnect and high-performance computing, not on the AI transceivers coverage watches (S03).
LightCounting says demand exceeded supply by 30% in 2026, which fits a shortage, but NVIDIA also added module suppliers in the same period, so lost share fits the numbers too (S12, S23, S35).
- LightCounting expects DWDM, the market interconnect modules belong to, to grow only 13% a year to 2031, far below 90% (S12).
- These are spoken figures on new categories with no filed history behind them (S01).
At the midpoint the guide is 43% growth, a touch below June's 44.6%, which coverage read as deceleration on the day of the 19.4% fall (S10, S06).
What management did with the money
Management spent the year's cash on factory space: $298.9M of building and equipment against $49.3M two years earlier. Buybacks almost stopped, falling to $5.2M, and it took a $75.0M Thai bank loan in August. It still holds $875.1M of cash.
Insiders in 2026Q3: 12 purchases and 18 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Fair. After the fall the price pays for growth well below this year's record pace, but the stalled AI module line leaves the pace uncertain.
The shares fell 19.4% the day after the Q4 fiscal 2026 results, as investors balked at the cash going into buildings and a forecast that grew slightly slower. Over six months the price fell while sales per share rose, so the whole fall was in what buyers pay for each dollar of sales. From 2 to 23 October the shares fell another 32% with no company news, as other optical makers fell too.
The Q1 fiscal 2027 results on 2 November are the first test of whether new module programs for cloud companies start filling the new space.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
At the midpoint the guide is 43% growth, a touch below June's 44.6%, which coverage read as deceleration on the day of the 19.4% fall (S10, S06).
- In May management expected merchant programs in the second half of calendar 2026; by August only one was dated, to the December quarter (S05, S03).
- A $150M high-performance computing quarter slipped by one quarter in fiscal 2026 (S05).
How we read the multiple
Buyers pay about 22 times last year's operating profit. Working back:
- The whole business, net of its cash, is valued at about $10.4B; grown 10% a year, that is about $13.9B in fiscal 2029.
- At 20 times profit, a common price for a large manufacturer, that needs about $693M of operating profit.
- At the 10% margin Fabrinet has kept for three years, that is about $6.9B of sales.
- That is 14% growth a year, about half the 27% analysts expect.
Against its own history. Now at or a little below what buyers usually paid per dollar of this company's earnings over past years, because the fall took out the AI build-out premium.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Excluding the Raytek gain, GAAP EPS was about $11.48 and the price 27 times it (C18).
- 2026-10-26editedre-struck at the 23 October close after a 32% fall; was 34.0 times at $463.69
Consensus for fiscal 2029 is $9.41B, 27% a year, on a single analyst (C31), so the price now asks for about half the pace forecast.
- 2026-10-26editedre-struck on C29's lower company value: the growth the price needs fell from 31% to 14% a year
Priced against its rivals
None of the listed rivals above sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.
Where we disagree with the market
A fast-growing AI optics winner, as 18 buy ratings and 6 holds say.
The growth is real but it is not mainly AI modules, and even the lower price needs steady double-digit growth.
Most of fiscal 2026's growth came from links between data centers, telecom gear and Amazon, while the AI module line was flat and NVIDIA spread its orders. LightCounting also warns that module sales tend to spike early in a spending cycle and fall while spending is still rising.
We would be wrong if AI module revenue hits a new record by Q3 fiscal 2027 from the new programs, with total growth staying above 35%.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 6 claims
LightCounting says demand exceeded supply by 30% in 2026, which fits a shortage, but NVIDIA also added module suppliers in the same period, so lost share fits the numbers too (S12, S23, S35).
Management also said datacom transceivers were roughly flat in the quarter, so the data center line grew on interconnect and high-performance computing, not on the AI transceivers coverage watches (S03).
NVIDIA's own 10-K still names Fabrinet beside Hon Hai and Wistron as a contract manufacturer, and Fabrinet is in its co-packaged optics ecosystem (S19, S23).
- Dell'Oro attributes part of 2026's capex growth to memory prices, not added capacity, so spending may overstate the optics it buys (S18).
- Yole's 2025 base of $23.4B is below LightCounting's $26.8B, so the forecasters disagree on scope (S14).
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- Four customers. Cisco, NVIDIA, Nokia and Amazon bought 57% of fiscal 2026 revenue, and none must keep ordering.
- NVIDIA keeps diversifying. NVIDIA fell from 35% of revenue to 16% in two years as it added other module suppliers.
- One country. Almost all the plants are in Thailand, where a 2011 flood stopped production and cost customers sales.
- Thin margins. About 10 cents of operating profit per dollar leaves little room if customers push prices down.
- Cash into buildings. Free cash flow was $4.2M in fiscal 2026, and spending on space rises again this year.
- A new tax. A global minimum tax takes about a tenth of profit, and the adjusted figures analysts use leave it out.
The evidence under this - 9 claims
Some NVIDIA-designed products may be bought by other customers or distributors and counted under them, so NVIDIA's real share of Fabrinet's work may be higher than the filed percentage (S01, S19).
NVIDIA's own 10-K still names Fabrinet beside Hon Hai and Wistron as a contract manufacturer, and Fabrinet is in its co-packaged optics ecosystem (S19, S23).
Management said no Pillar Two cash was paid in fiscal 2026, and a Thai investment incentive could change the amount (S03, S01).
What we still do not know
- How much of NVIDIA's newest modules Fabrinet still builds. NVIDIA names its suppliers but never their shares.
- How much of the module market outside factories build. No research firm publishes it.
- Which cloud and merchant customers the new module programs are for, and how big they are.
- Whether the minimum tax will be paid in cash, or reduced by Thai investment incentives.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
NVIDIA's own 10-K still names Fabrinet beside Hon Hai and Wistron as a contract manufacturer, and Fabrinet is in its co-packaged optics ecosystem (S19, S23).
- Fabrinet's data center line includes high-performance computing and other non-transceiver work, so the ratio overstates its transceiver share (S03).
- Cignal AI omits Fabrinet from its vendor list because brand owners are counted, so no outside source confirms any share (S17).
- In May management expected merchant programs in the second half of calendar 2026; by August only one was dated, to the December quarter (S05, S03).
- A $150M high-performance computing quarter slipped by one quarter in fiscal 2026 (S05).
Management said no Pillar Two cash was paid in fiscal 2026, and a Thai investment incentive could change the amount (S03, S01).
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveA price that allows slower growth, with transceivers growing again
It needs all of:
- ○The company stays valued at no more than 24 times operating profit, which would need only about 17% yearly growth (22.5 times on 23 October).checked at the next results, due by 2 Nov
- ○AI module revenue grows again from one quarter to the next in Q1 or Q2 fiscal 2027.watched as it happens
- Neutral→UnattractiveGrowth slows, or the price outruns it
It needs any of:
- ○Fabrinet's next quarterly forecast implies growth below 20% on a year earlier.checked at the next results, due by 2 Nov
- ○The shares rise until the company is valued at 45 times operating profit, from 22.5, which would need about 44% yearly growth.about ≈$629.88 today, 36% above the last close
We would also be wrong if
- Operating profit falls below 9% of revenue for two quarters in a row.
- Cisco, Nokia or Amazon moves a running product to its own plant or another manufacturer.
- NVIDIA falls below 10% of revenue in fiscal 2027 while AI modules stay flat.
What is coming
- 2 November 2026 Q1 fiscal 2027 results: Revenue against the $1.375B to $1.425B guide, whether datacom transceivers grow again, and the tax rate in the first quarter without the Chonburi exemption.
Every dated event ahead
- 2 November 2026 Q1 fiscal 2027 results: Revenue against the $1.375B to $1.425B guide, whether datacom transceivers grow again, and the tax rate in the first quarter without the Chonburi exemption.
- December 2026 2026 proxy statement and annual meeting: Whether the FY25-26 PSUs and stretch PSUs paid in full, and whether the next cycle adds any measure of cash flow or return on capital.
- February 2027 Q2 fiscal 2027 results: Whether the merchant transceiver program started in the December quarter as promised, and whether operating cash flow covers capital spending again.
- August 2027 Navanakorn tax holiday begins: How much of the new campus's output earns preferential tax, against the Pillar Two minimum tax that already caps the benefit.
Since we wrote this
- 26 OctPrice moveShares fell 32%; the price now needs 14% growth, not 31%Valuation moved from Full to Fair. The view stays Neutral because Attractive also needs transceiver revenue to grow again, which the 2 November results answer.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
- 3 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten six weeks after the Q4 fiscal 2026 print, after a 19.4% fall on the day and a partial rebound.
Also checked 3 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 40
Sources - 40
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-08-18Item 1 services, process technologies, qualification, contracts, named competitors; customers above 10% for three years; revenue by end market recast; Pillar Two top-up tax; capacity, capex, cash, shares, buybacks, Amazon warrant, Raytek stake, credit facility, headcount, Thailand assetsbacksC01C02C03C04C05C07C09C11C14C16C17C18C21C22C23C24C26C27C28C38C39C55C56C60C61C62
- S02primarycompany release2026-08-17Q4 and fiscal 2026 statements, non-GAAP reconciliation excluding the Pillar Two tax and the Raytek gain, free cash flow, Q1 fiscal 2027 guidebacksC05C06C18C19C21C35
- S03primarytranscript2026-08-17Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)data/cache/transcripts/FN-2026Q4.json (FMP earning-call-transcript, label 2026Q4, call held 2026-08-17)Q4 revenue by the new categories, DCI near a $1B run rate, HPC, datacom flat, new transceiver programs, capacity plan to $12.5B-$14B, Pillar Two treatment; questions from seven analysts, a separate origin from the answers
So we are at a run rate of $5.3 billion, so a little bit ahead of what we had originally thought
backsC08C12C13C15C19C25C38C40 - S04primarycompany release2026-05-04Q3 revenue $1,214.3M against the $1.15B-$1.20B guide; the Q4 guide of $1.25B-$1.29BbacksC06C35
- S05primarytranscript2026-05-04Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)data/cache/transcripts/FN-2026Q3.json (FMP earning-call-transcript, label 2026Q3, call held 2026-05-04)datacom, DCI and HPC figures for Q3, the component shortages behind the datacom dip, the two hyperscaler-direct transceiver programs and merchant programs
Datacom revenue of $260 million increased 4% from a year ago
backsC12C13C15C34 - S06primarycompany release2026-02-02Q2 revenue $1,132.9M and the Q3 guide of $1.15B-$1.20BbacksC06C35
- S07primarycompany filing2026-08-17the THB 2.50 billion (about $75.0M) term loan guaranteed by Fabrinet, used for capital spendingbacksC22
- S08secondaryvendor data2026-10-03Research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, daily closes, SEC XBRL statements)the 2 October close, 52-week range, daily moves after each print, price-move split, analyst split and estimates, short interest settled 15 September, headcount seriesbacksC06C31C32C33C34C35C37C39
- S09primarycompany filing2026-10-0323 open-market sales and no purchases; the 10b5-1 box unchecked on every filing read; one filing of eight sales could not be read (404)backsC36
- S10tertiarynews2026-08-18the objection coverage stated on the day of the 19.4% fall: capital spending absorbing free cash flow
investors sold out of the stock today due to concerns about how well the plan will play out over the long haul
backsC33 - S11primaryindustry data2026-06LightCounting, June 2026 Quarterly Market Update LightCountingthe 2025 transceiver market and its growth, measured by a market-research firm that sells no transceivers
Our final count for sales of optical transceivers and related products in 2025 stands at $26.8 billion, up 74% from 2024.
backsC41 - S12primaryindustry data2026-04LightCounting, April 2026 Market Forecast LightCountingEthernet transceivers up 82% in 2025 and forecast up 65% in 2026; DWDM up 12% in 2025 and 13% a year to 2031; demand 30% above supply; sales spike early in a capex cycle
The current demand is exceeding supply by 30%, but the shortages should be going away by the end of 2026.
backsC42 - S13primaryindustry data2026-05Innolight $5.3B and Eoptolink $3.5B of 2025 revenue, the two largest transceiver vendors, both making their own products
The company reported $5.3 billion in revenue for 2025 - up 61% and just above of our estimates of 58% growth in the total transceiver market last year.
backsC47 - S14secondaryindustry data2026-06-30Compound Semiconductor, 'AI is redefining the optical transceiver market' (Yole Group release) Yole GroupYole's forecast of the datacom transceiver market to 2031; Yole's own page refused both fetchers, so the trade-press copy is cited
From $23.4b in 2025 to $112.3b in 2031, the market is showing an impressive 30 percent CAGR for datacom applications.
backsC43 - S15primaryindustry data2026-04-20AI transceivers $16.5B in 2025 to $26B in 2026, and precision alignment named as the production bottleneck
high-precision manufacturing processes, including optical alignment, limit scalable production
backsC44 - S16primaryindustry data2026-03-17Dell'Oro Group, 'Data Center Capex Surges 57 Percent in 2025 as AI Deployments Accelerate' Dell'Oro Groupthe rate of the driver: data center capex up 57% in 2025 and the top four US clouds up 76%; read through an agent fetch because the site blocks scripts
worldwide data center capital expenditures increased 57 percent in 2025
backsC45 - S17primaryindustry data2026-06-18datacom optical components $7.7B in Q1 2026, 400G-plus modules up 145%, 1.6T above 10 million units in 2026, 800ZR+ scale-across at Meta
High-speed (400G+) datacom module shipments set a record; up 145% year-over-year.
backsC46 - S18primaryindustry data2026-09-16the newest capex rate, part of it memory price inflation rather than added capacity
Data Center Capex Grew 92 Percent in 2Q 2026, Driven by Surging AI Demand and Memory Costs
backsC45 - S19primarycompany filing2026-02-25NVIDIA Form 10-K, fiscal year ended January 25, 2026 NVIDIA CorporationNVIDIA naming Fabrinet beside Hon Hai and Wistron as a contract manufacturer of its final productsread, but no claim rests on it
- S20primarycompany filing2026-03-05Nokia listing Fabrinet among Flex, Foxconn, Jabil, Sanmina and Karel as final-assembly suppliersbacksC16
- S21primarycompany filing2026-03-02Ouster Form 10-K, fiscal year 2025 Ouster, Inc.a customer splitting manufacturing between Benchmark and Fabrinet and owning equipment held at bothbacksC51
- S22primarycompany filing2026-03-27Luminar Form 10-K, fiscal year 2025 Luminar Technologies, Inc.a customer saying Fabrinet assembles and tests to the customer's own design and componentsbacksC51
- S23primarycompany release2025-03-18NVIDIA release, 'NVIDIA Announces Spectrum-X Photonics, Co-Packaged Optics Networking Switches' NVIDIA CorporationNVIDIA's own list of four pluggable-transceiver suppliers, and Fabrinet inside its co-packaged optics ecosystem
pluggable optical transceiver technologies supported by industry leaders including Coherent, Eoptolink, Fabrinet and Innolight
backsC48 - S24primarycompany filing2026-08-14Coherent Form 10-K, fiscal year ended June 30, 2026 Coherent Corp.NVIDIA's multi-billion purchase commitment and capacity rights for Coherent's laser and optical networking productsbacksC49
- S25primarycompany filing2026-03-02Lumentum Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, NVIDIA agreement Lumentum Holdings Inc.NVIDIA's multi-billion purchase commitment for Lumentum's laser components, inputs to modulesbacksC49
- S26primarycompany filing2026-03-31Zhongji Innolight 2025 annual report summary (cninfo) Zhongji Innolight Co., Ltd.InnoLight's 2025 revenue of RMB 38.24bn, up 60.25%, from designing, making and selling its own modules, and the customer certification a supplier must pass
报告期内，公司实现营业收入 382.40 亿元，同比增长 60.25%
backsC47 - S27primarycompany filing2026-04-24Eoptolink 2025 financial report (cninfo) Eoptolink Technology Inc., Ltd.Eoptolink's 2025 revenue of RMB 24.84bn, up 187.29%, selling its own modules to equipment makers and internet companies
营业收入 24,841,854,840.22 8,646,831,134.32 187.29%
backsC47 - S28primaryindustry data2026-08-04an outside analyst on switching, on qualified assembly and test capacity as the binding constraint, InnoLight's 34% share and its Thailand and Indonesia capacity
Hyperscalers cannot switch suppliers easily, but that is not the real problem.
backsC47C52C53 - S29secondarynews2026-08-17the status of the reported FCC measure: no draft, no proceeding, no deadline
No draft text has been released. The agency has not opened a named proceeding
backsC53 - S30primaryother2026-09-25Office of Senator McCormick, bill on Chinese optical transceivers in national security systems Office of U.S. Senator Dave McCormicka bill, introduced only, barring InnoLight and Eoptolink from federal national-security systems after a five-year transition
Cover InnoLight, Eoptolink, and their subsidiaries and affiliates
backsC53 - S31primarycompany filing2025-10-17co-packaged optics and silicon photonics among Jabil's development capabilitiesbacksC50
- S32secondarynews2025-04-03Jabil selling its own 1.6T transceivers beside its 400G and 800G products
Leveraging Intel® Silicon Photonics technology, these next-generation modules are designed for intra-data center connectivity
backsC50 - S33primarytranscript2026-02-02Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)data/cache/transcripts/FN-2026Q2.json (FMP earning-call-transcript, label 2026Q2, call held 2026-02-02)qualification running line by line on the Amazon program, where Fabrinet is a second source
we have two lines, two production lines fully qualified and additional lines being qualified
backsC03 - S34primarycompany filing2015-08-06Lumentum (JDSU CCOP) information statement, Exhibit 99.1 Lumentum Holdings Inc.the 2011 Thailand flood at Fabrinet costing a customer about $15M of revenuebacksC27
- S35tertiarynews2026-09-25the company's own account, repeated in coverage, of why NVIDIA's share fell
NVIDIA has since diversified its supply chain and now sources 800G products from multiple suppliers
backsC48 - S36primarycompany filing2026-02-27Celestica Form 10-K, fiscal year 2025 Celestica Inc.optical systems as one line in a networking, server and storage manufacturing businessbacksC51
- S37primarycompany filing2025-10-23Fabrinet proxy statement (DEF 14A), filed October 23, 2025, for the December 11, 2025 annual meetingbeneficial ownership at September 30, 2025, officer and director biographies, the fiscal 2025 bonus plan and its goals, the PSU and RSU mix, the FY24-25 PSU payout, the founder's retirement from the boardbacksC56C57C59
- S38primarycompany filing2026-08-26shares each officer held directly after the August 2026 vestingbacksC58
- S39primarycompany filing2026-10-04Fabrinet XBRL company facts, fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2026, frozen as content/FN/financials.jsoncontent/FN/financials.jsonrevenue, gross profit, operating income, selling general and administrative expense, share pay, capital spending and diluted share counts per fiscal year; no ResearchAndDevelopmentExpense is taggedbacksC60C61
- S40secondaryvendor data2026-10-23Daily closes to 23 October 2026 (FMP end-of-day prices)the 23 October close of $314.94backsC29