Jabil
Jabil builds electronics for other companies, from AI server racks to car parts and injector pens, and puts none of its own name on them.
Our viewAttractive Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑
Fast, but narrowed to one driver and one large customer, and fiscal 2024 revenue fell when the phone business was sold.
Business quality2/4 →
Switching costs hold within a product's life only; the buyer decides on cost, and Foxconn and customers' own factories compete for the racks.
Financial position3/4 →
Debt is covered and spread to 2033 with $4.4B unused, but working capital leans on sold receivables and stretched suppliers.
Execution record3/4 ↑
Beat and raised all year, but restructuring charges recur every year, which the core figure leaves out.
Per share capture4/4 →
Share count down 10.8% in fiscal 2025 on cash buybacks, acquisitions paid in cash, no convertible.
Potential2/4 →
Bounded upside that is expected rather than committed: it rests on cloud companies' spending and an unnamed customer, with nothing signed.
Risk profile3/4 ↓
One serious concentration: an unnamed customer at 16% of revenue and 24% of receivables, disclosed and survivable.
Valuation2/4 ↓
At the old multiple the price pays for fiscal 2027's guide and no more; on filed earnings it is far above its six-year normal.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Central figures are filed and independent sources measure the market, but the AI growth rests on management's own figures.
The bet · 2-3 years
Safe, little upside1.8×
If it works 1.8× · if it fails you keep about 99%.
The Verdict
We rate Jabil attractive. It builds electronics for other companies, from AI server racks to car parts. Its AI sales are forecast to rise by about half next year, so the business is solid. After the fall, the shares cost what they usually have per dollar of next year's forecast profit: the usual price for faster growth. The catch is thin profit, about six cents of each sales dollar, and on this year's reported profit the price is full. As a bet it is defensive: if the data-centre business keeps its pace the shares gain well short of doubling; if it stalls, most of the money is kept.
The long caseCloud companies keep spending heavily on AI data centres, and Jabil builds the racks, power and cooling gear inside them for customers it already serves.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C02facthigh confidence
Intelligent Infrastructure, the segment holding cloud and data-centre, networking and chip-equipment customers, was 48% of Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue against 44% a year earlier; over the nine months it grew 41% to $12,050M while Regulated Industries grew 6% to $9,280M and Connected Living and Digital Commerce fell 5% to $4,008M.
C04facthigh confidence
Core operating margin, which excludes amortisation, stock compensation and restructuring, was 5.0% in fiscal 2023, 5.5% in fiscal 2024 and 5.4% in fiscal 2025 on core operating income of $1,733M, $1,588M and $1,620M; the filed GAAP operating margin in fiscal 2025 was 4.0%.
C07facthigh confidence
One customer the fiscal 2025 annual report does not name, Customer A, was 16% of fiscal 2025 revenue, booked mainly in Intelligent Infrastructure, and 24% of receivables at 2025-08-31 against 17% a year earlier; the fiscal 2024 annual report had named Apple instead.
C09management claimmedium confidence
Management said on 30 September 2026 that AI-related revenue was about $14.4B in fiscal 2026, up 60% from about $9B, and expects about $22.1B in fiscal 2027, up 54%, with five AI customers above $1B; the earlier figures were about $5B in fiscal 2024.
sourceJabil Q4 fiscal 2025 call and investor briefing transcriptprimaryJabil Q3 fiscal 2026 call transcriptprimaryJabil Q4 fiscal 2026 call and ninth annual investor briefing…primary
against this
- No filing carries the figure; the filed measure is Intelligent Infrastructure, which grew 56% in Q4 and guides to 43% for fiscal 2027.
- Fiscal 2026's $14.4B is above the $13.6B management expected in June, so the guide rests on a base that has already beaten its own forecast, and the chief executive said he is 'always appropriately conservative'.
- 2026-10-01editedthe Q4 release carries no AI-related revenue figure or fiscal 2027 AI growth and no Q4 call was available, so the claim stays management's earlier statement; refresh moved to the Q1 print
- 2026-10-21editedQ4 call: management stated the AI total ($14.4B, up 60%) and guided fiscal 2027 to about $22.1B, up 54%, which the release did not carry.
C11facthigh confidence
Working capital in Q3 fiscal 2026 was funded by suppliers and banks: receivables sold under factoring programmes were $12,731M over nine months against $7,351M a year earlier, payables reached $11,908M and 135 days against 96, and inventory $5,933M and 84 days.
C17facthigh confidence
At $277.18 the shares trade at 28.4 times filed fiscal 2026 diluted earnings of $9.75 against a six-year median of 15.9, and 21.2 times fiscal 2026 core earnings of $13.09.
sourceResearch pack, JBL, 2026-09-27secondaryJabil Q4 and fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryFMP end-of-day prices, JBL, close of 2026-09-30secondaryFMP end-of-day prices, JBL, close of 2026-10-20secondary
- 2026-10-01editedre-struck on the 2026-09-30 close and the reported fiscal 2026 earnings; the enterprise-value comparison is not re-struck and stays in the 2026-09-25 pack
- 2026-10-21editedRe-struck at the 2026-10-20 close of $277.18, down from $286.86 at the print.
C18estimatemedium confidence
At the company's six-year median of 15.9 times earnings, $277.18 needs about $17.43 of earnings per share, 33% above the $13.09 reported for fiscal 2026 and 1% below the $17.55 Jabil guides for fiscal 2027.
sourceJabil Q4 and fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryFMP end-of-day prices, JBL, close of 2026-09-30secondaryFMP end-of-day prices, JBL, close of 2026-10-20secondary
against this
- The business mix is different from the six years the median covers: Intelligent Infrastructure has grown from 32% to 48% of revenue, and a buyer may reasonably pay more for it.
- The filed competitor cohort trades at a median of about 39 times trailing earnings too, so the whole group has been re-priced and Jabil is not dear against it.
- 2026-10-01editedre-struck on the 2026-09-30 close after the 10% fall and the fiscal 2027 guide: the gap to the old multiple is 3% of next year's guided profit, not 57% of this year's
- 2026-10-21editedRe-struck at the 2026-10-20 close: the shares now sit 1% below what the old multiple pays on the fiscal 2027 guide, from 3% above.
C48facthigh confidence
Intelligent Infrastructure revenue was $4,169M in Q3 fiscal 2026 against $3,433M a year earlier, up 21% against 41% over the nine months, and $15,791M over the four quarters to 2026-05-31, while Regulated Industries and Connected Living together made $17,799M.
The company
When a company designs a product but does not want to run factories, it hires Jabil. Jabil buys the parts, builds the circuit boards, assembles and tests the finished product, and ships it under the customer's name.
Its customers include cloud companies buying AI server racks, carmakers, drug companies needing injector pens, and Apple, whose own supplier list names it. The alternative is building in-house or hiring a rival, and Jabil's own annual report says customers weigh both, cost first.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Jabil earns substantially all of its revenue building products to its customers' own specifications, and most of its business units each serve a single customer with dedicated equipment, workers, buyers and engineers.
C26facthigh confidence
Jabil's own annual report lists cost first among the principal competitive factors, and names its customers' own manufacturing operations as competition.
C34factmedium confidence
Apple's supplier list for fiscal 2023 names Jabil with sites in China, India and Taiwan, beside Hon Hai, Flex and Luxshare.
C43facthigh confidence
The 10-K and 10-Q attribute each segment's growth to 'existing customers': Intelligent Infrastructure's 34% in fiscal 2025 came from a 30% increase from existing cloud and data-centre customers and 10% from existing capital-equipment customers.
How it makes money
Jabil is paid per product built, so revenue includes the cost of all the parts it buys. That is why the sales figure is large and the profit is thin: under 6 cents of each dollar, before costs like restructuring that it charges almost every year.
For its largest customer some parts pass through at cost, so reported sales understate what goes through the factories.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C04facthigh confidence
Core operating margin, which excludes amortisation, stock compensation and restructuring, was 5.0% in fiscal 2023, 5.5% in fiscal 2024 and 5.4% in fiscal 2025 on core operating income of $1,733M, $1,588M and $1,620M; the filed GAAP operating margin in fiscal 2025 was 4.0%.
C06facthigh confidence
Core earnings exclude costs that recur every year: restructuring was $57M, $296M and $181M in fiscal 2023, 2024 and 2025, and stock compensation $107M in fiscal 2025, so fiscal 2025 GAAP diluted earnings per share was $5.92 against core $9.75.
C44facthigh confidence
In its largest customer's work Jabil holds $2.8B of components in prepaid expenses whose revenue is booked net, so reported revenue understates what passes through its factories.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (nine months to 2026-05-31) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Intelligent Infrastructure | 47.6% | Building cloud and data-centre racks, power and cooling gear, networking equipment and chip-making tools to customers' designs. |
| Regulated Industries | 36.6% | Making medical devices, drug-delivery pens, car electronics and renewable-energy equipment under regulated, long-qualification programmes. |
| Connected Living and Digital Commerce | 15.8% | Making consumer devices, home products and warehouse automation and robotics equipment for brands and retailers. |
Who runs it
Michael Dastoor, Jabil's finance chief for six years, became chief executive in 2024; Greg Hebard took over finance. Mark Mondello, who ran the company until 2023, chairs the board and is the largest insider holder, though he has been selling. Insiders own little, about 1%. Bonuses pay on profit and cash flow, shares on profit per share and the stock against peers, figures that leave out restructuring and that buybacks lift.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C50facthigh confidence
Michael Dastoor became chief executive in May 2024 after 24 years at Jabil, chief financial officer from April 2018; Gregory Hebard, at Jabil since 2009 and treasurer from 2021, became chief financial officer in May 2024; Mark Mondello, who joined in 1992 and was chief executive until May 2023, is executive chairman.
C51facthigh confidence
At the 2025-11-28 record date the 20 directors and executive officers owned 1.35% of the 106.8M shares; Mark Mondello's 1,109,400 was the largest insider holding and Michael Dastoor held 33,407; Vanguard at 14.11% and BlackRock at 9.62% were the holders above 5%. There is one class of common stock.
against this
- Mondello has since sold 130,000 shares (C38), so his holding is below the proxy's figure.
- The Vanguard and BlackRock figures come from 13G/A filings as of December 2023, not from the record date.
C52facthigh confidence
Jabil's annual bonus pays half on core operating income in a matrix with core operating margin and half on free cash flow; fiscal 2025 paid 171% of target on $1,620M of core operating income against a $1,458M target and $1,318M of free cash flow against $1,100M. Two-thirds of long-term awards vest on three-year cumulative core earnings per share and total return against the S&P 1500 technology hardware index; a third vest on time.
against this
- Core figures leave out restructuring and stock pay, which recur every year (C06), so the plan pays on profit that excludes a recurring cost.
- Core earnings per share rises with buybacks as well as profit (C13), and the fiscal 2023 award's $26.87 was adjusted to $27.71 before vesting at 135%.
- The fiscal 2025 core operating income target of $1,458M sat below the $1,588M earned in fiscal 2024 (C04), a year that still held four months of the sold phone business.
C38facthigh confidence
Over the year to 2026-09-27 insiders sold 341,366 shares in 106 open-market sales, 232,145 of them outside a pre-arranged plan, including 130,000 by the executive chairman for about $29.4M; one director bought 500 shares.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
Most of Jabil's business units serve a single customer with their own lines, people and planners. Moving a product mid-life means rebuilding all that elsewhere, and for medical and car parts, re-approving the line.
The evidence is where growth comes from: the filings credit it to existing customers spending more. The limit is that every new product is bid again, and Jabil itself says buyers decide on cost first.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Jabil earns substantially all of its revenue building products to its customers' own specifications, and most of its business units each serve a single customer with dedicated equipment, workers, buyers and engineers.
C43facthigh confidence
The 10-K and 10-Q attribute each segment's growth to 'existing customers': Intelligent Infrastructure's 34% in fiscal 2025 came from a 30% increase from existing cloud and data-centre customers and 10% from existing capital-equipment customers.
C34factmedium confidence
Apple's supplier list for fiscal 2023 names Jabil with sites in China, India and Taiwan, beside Hon Hai, Flex and Luxshare.
C26facthigh confidence
Jabil's own annual report lists cost first among the principal competitive factors, and names its customers' own manufacturing operations as competition.
The threat
Foxconn says it holds over 40% of this industry and will more than double its AI rack shipments this year, and NVIDIA names Foxconn, not Jabil, as a builder. A rival, Flex, warns that the cloud companies may build their own. In healthcare, a GLP-1 weight-loss pill that needs no injector pen has just been approved.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C22management claimmedium confidence
Hon Hai (Foxconn) says its share of electronics manufacturing services exceeds 40% and that its AI rack shipments will more than double this year.
against this
The share figure is Foxconn's own and states no denominator, so it cannot be checked against the trade association's market total and is a claim about a definition as much as a measurement.
C23facthigh confidence
NVIDIA's annual report names Hon Hai, Wistron and Fabrinet as its contract manufacturers, and does not name Jabil.
C25facthigh confidence
Flex's Cloud and Power Infrastructure segment grew 38% to $6,614M in its fiscal 2026, and Flex warns that 'certain hyperscale customers have developed, or may develop, internal design, engineering, or manufacturing capabilities'.
C35facthigh confidence
The FDA found injectable GLP-1 supply caught up with demand in 2025, Lilly's US Mounjaro revenue still grew 45% in Q2 2026, and the FDA approved orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 that needs no injector pen.
The rivals: CLS, LLY, PLXS, SANM, FLEX, BHE, and 3 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | Where it competes | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hon Hai (Foxconn)Priced against it: Listed abroad | Intelligent Infrastructure | On sale | Listed abroad | |
| CLS | Celestica, through Hardware Platform SolutionsPriced against it: Yes | Intelligent Infrastructure | On sale | Yes |
| In-house | Customer A's and the hyperscalers' own manufacturingPriced against it: In-house | Intelligent Infrastructure | On sale | In-house |
| LLY | Eli Lilly's orforglipron, an oral GLP-1Priced against it: Different product | Regulated Industries | On sale | Different product |
| Hon Hai and Luxshare, Apple's other assemblersPriced against it: Listed abroad | Connected Living and Digital Commerce | On sale | Listed abroad | |
| PLXS | PlexusPriced against it: Yes | - | On sale | Yes |
| SANM | SanminaPriced against it: Yes | - | On sale | Yes |
| FLEX | FlexPriced against it: Yes | - | On sale | Yes |
| BHE | Benchmark ElectronicsPriced against it: Yes | - | On sale | Yes |
How big it could get
How big this could get
The industry's trade association puts outsourced electronics manufacturing at about $658B in 2024, growing about 4.6% a year. Jabil's $28.9B of sales that year was about 4.4% of it.
The fast part is AI: Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft roughly doubled their equipment spending, and North American orders to contract manufacturers rose 44.3% in July 2026 from a year earlier.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C27factmedium confidence
The Global Electronics Association puts outsourced electronics manufacturing at about $658B in 2024, up 3.2%, growing at a projected 4.6% a year, within an assembly market of $1.63T where equipment makers still build most of it themselves.
C28facthigh confidence
Jabil's revenue was $28,883M in fiscal 2024 and $29,802M in fiscal 2025.
C29facthigh confidence
North American contract manufacturers' book-to-bill ratio was 1.29 in July 2026, bookings rose 44.3% from a year earlier and shipments fell 0.3%.
C31facthigh confidence
The largest buyers roughly doubled their equipment spending: Amazon's cash capital spending was $53.1B in Q2 2026 against $31.4B, Alphabet's $80.6B in the first half against $39.6B, and Microsoft's $115.9B in its fiscal 2026 against $64.6B.
Who has signed
Nothing with a volume and a term. Amazon holds rights to buy Jabil shares that vest as it buys from Jabil, with no purchase amount stated. Jabil also says it won a third cloud customer, unnamed, worth 'a couple of 100 million' dollars in fiscal 2027, in management's words.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C32facthigh confidence
Amazon holds a warrant for up to 1,158,539 Jabil shares at $137.7671 that vests as Amazon pays for products and services over seven years from 2024-12-27; 59,582 vested at issue and no purchase volume is disclosed.
C33management claimmedium confidence
Management says Jabil won a third hyperscale customer in Q3 fiscal 2026, worth 'a couple of 100 million' in fiscal 2027 and about $1B in fiscal 2028, and that its new North Carolina site should reach $1B, $2B and $3B annual rates over three years.
against this
- No customer is named, no contract is filed, and the site for the third hyperscaler is undecided: 'it might be North Carolina, it might be somewhere else'.
- The Adani data-centre alliance described on the same call is not definitive and management places it in fiscal 2028 at the earliest.
C07facthigh confidence
One customer the fiscal 2025 annual report does not name, Customer A, was 16% of fiscal 2025 revenue, booked mainly in Intelligent Infrastructure, and 24% of receivables at 2025-08-31 against 17% a year earlier; the fiscal 2024 annual report had named Apple instead.
Where the growth is coming from, business by business
Where the growth is coming from
| Business | Share of revenue | Growth: last quarter | Last half-year | Last year | Share in 3 years at its half-year rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intelligent Infrastructure | 55% | +55.6% | +39.3% | +45.1% | 74% |
| Regulated Industries | 32% | +9.2% | +6.7% | +6.9% | 19% |
| Connected Living and Digital Commerce | 13% | -0.4% | +2.1% | -3.9% | 7% |
| Whole company | 100% | +28.6% | +20.4% | +20.6% | 100% |
On the filed split through 2026-08-31, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 24% next year and 28% in year 3, against 17.8% over the last twelve months. Intelligent Infrastructure carries the case: it grows 39% against 5% for the rest, and would be 74% of revenue by then. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.
How we read it: The business carrying the case: Intelligent Infrastructure grew 41% over nine months from existing customers, slowing to 21% in Q3. One customer at 16% of revenue and a margin only just rising keep it 3.
The results
The numbers
Is it growing?Steady
Sales grew 21% in the year to Aug 2026, faster than the 3.2% in the year before.
Is it profitable?Thin
Operating margin is 4.7%, about where it was (4.4%) in the year to Aug 2023.
Does growth pay off?Flat
Running costs take 4¢ of each sales dollar, about where it was (4¢) in the year to Aug 2022.
Does it earn good returns?Strong
Each dollar put into the business earns 27% a year after tax, up from 22% in the year to Aug 2022.
Is it making cash?Thin
It turned 3.8% of sales into free cash, $1.37B over the year.
Is the balance sheet safe?Light debt
It owes $1.64B more than the cash it holds, about 0.8 years of the cash its operations bring in.
Are shares being diluted?Shrinking
The share count fell 26% in 4.0 years, and pay in shares costs 0.4% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-23. Fiscal years end in August.
| Aug 2022 | Aug 2023 | Aug 2024 | Aug 2025 | Aug 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | |||||
| Sales | $33.5B | $34.7B | $28.9B | $29.8B | $36.0B |
| Sales growth | +14% | +3.7% | −17% | +3.2% | +21% |
| Profit | |||||
| Gross margin | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% |
| Operating margin | 4.2% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% |
| Net margin | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | |||||
| Research and development | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Selling, general and admin | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| Pay in shares | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Capital spending | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| Cash | |||||
| Cash from operations | $1.65B | $1.73B | $1.72B | $1.64B | $2.00B |
| Free cash flow | $266M | $704M | $932M | $1.17B | $1.37B |
| Balance sheet | |||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $1.48B | $1.80B | $2.20B | $1.93B | $1.74B |
| Debt | $2.88B | $2.88B | $2.88B | $2.88B | $3.38B |
| Net cash | −$1.40B | −$1.07B | −$679M | −$952M | −$1.64B |
| Returns and shares | |||||
| Return on capital | 22% | 18% | 31% | 19% | 27% |
| Shares (diluted) | 144M | 136M | 124M | 111M | 107M |
What growth costs
Growth does not make Jabil much leaner: its office and sales costs grow about as fast as revenue, and it spends almost nothing on research. What has lifted margins is better-paying work, mainly data-centre racks, and spending less on factories since the phone business was sold.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C54facthigh confidence
Per sales dollar, selling, general and administrative cost including stock pay was 3.45 cents in fiscal 2022, 3.48, 4.02, 3.76 and 3.79 in fiscal 2026; research and development about 0.1 cent; capital spending fell from 4.14 cents to 1.75; gross margin rose from 7.9% to 9.2%. The income statement's own SG&A line, which excludes stock pay, rose 20.4% in fiscal 2026 as revenue rose 20.6%.
sourceJabil 10-K, fiscal year ended 2024-08-31primaryJabil 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-08-31primaryJabil Q4 and fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primary
against this
Fiscal 2023 and 2024 revenue still held the phone business sold in December 2023 (C36), so part of the fall in capital spending per sales dollar is the exit from a capital-heavy customer rather than efficiency.
C04facthigh confidence
Core operating margin, which excludes amortisation, stock compensation and restructuring, was 5.0% in fiscal 2023, 5.5% in fiscal 2024 and 5.4% in fiscal 2025 on core operating income of $1,733M, $1,588M and $1,620M; the filed GAAP operating margin in fiscal 2025 was 4.0%.
C36facthigh confidence
Jabil sold its mobile-phone manufacturing business in China to BYD Electronic for about $2.2B, closing on 2023-12-29, which is why fiscal 2024 revenue fell 16.8%.
The last report (17 Jun)
Quarter ended May 2026, filed figures.
12%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
5.7%
Growth from the quarter before
against -0.3% the quarter before that
5¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales
On its 30 September call Jabil said AI-related sales were about $14.4B in fiscal 2026, up 60%, and guided about $22.1B for fiscal 2027, up 54%, with five customers above $1B. Revenue in the quarter grew 29% to $10.6B and core profit per share was $4.40.
The profit margin forecast stays at 6.1%, lighter in the first half as new factory space fills. Analysts have since moved to $17.68 of profit per share for fiscal 2027, above Jabil's $17.55.
What it did to the thesisThe call answered the question the release left open: AI growth is real and well above our line. It did not lift the margin, which stays thin. The business case improved while the price fell to its usual multiple, so we recommend a view change.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $3.16 against $3.10 expected; $2.59 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C03facthigh confidence
Jabil raised its fiscal 2026 outlook three times after issuing it: revenue from $31.3B to $32.4B, $34B and then $35B, and core earnings per share from $11.00 to $11.55, $12.25 and then $12.70. It then reported fiscal 2026 core earnings per share of $13.09 on $35,954M of revenue.
sourceJabil Q4 and fiscal 2025 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q1 fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q2 fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q3 fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q4 and fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primary
- 2026-10-01editedfiscal 2026 closed above the last outlook: core earnings per share $13.09 against $12.70
C05management claimmedium confidence
Jabil reported fiscal 2026 core operating margin of 5.8% (6.4% in Q4) and guides fiscal 2027 to 6.1%, up 30 basis points, against the '6%+' it had said in June. On the call management said the margin is lighter in the first half and rises in the second as new capacity fills, that the first quarter is 20 basis points up on a year earlier, and that it will try to outperform 6.1%.
sourceJabil Q3 fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q3 fiscal 2026 call transcriptprimaryJabil Q4 and fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q4 fiscal 2026 call and ninth annual investor briefing…primary
against this
- Stifel's June question about the path from 6.4% to 7% is still unanswered by a 6.1% guide; the first-quarter guide midpoint implies 5.7% (core operating income $622M on $11.0B).
- The three-year core margin record before fiscal 2026 sat between 5.0% and 5.5%, and the 6.1% is below the 6.2% the thesis pre-registered as supportive.
- 2026-10-01editedthe fiscal 2027 margin guide arrived: 6.1%, 30 basis points up, short of the 6.2% pre-registered
- 2026-10-21editedQ4 call: shape of the margin through the year; the 6.1% guide itself is unchanged.
C09management claimmedium confidence
Management said on 30 September 2026 that AI-related revenue was about $14.4B in fiscal 2026, up 60% from about $9B, and expects about $22.1B in fiscal 2027, up 54%, with five AI customers above $1B; the earlier figures were about $5B in fiscal 2024.
sourceJabil Q4 fiscal 2025 call and investor briefing transcriptprimaryJabil Q3 fiscal 2026 call transcriptprimaryJabil Q4 fiscal 2026 call and ninth annual investor briefing…primary
against this
- No filing carries the figure; the filed measure is Intelligent Infrastructure, which grew 56% in Q4 and guides to 43% for fiscal 2027.
- Fiscal 2026's $14.4B is above the $13.6B management expected in June, so the guide rests on a base that has already beaten its own forecast, and the chief executive said he is 'always appropriately conservative'.
- 2026-10-01editedthe Q4 release carries no AI-related revenue figure or fiscal 2027 AI growth and no Q4 call was available, so the claim stays management's earlier statement; refresh moved to the Q1 print
- 2026-10-21editedQ4 call: management stated the AI total ($14.4B, up 60%) and guided fiscal 2027 to about $22.1B, up 54%, which the release did not carry.
C12facthigh confidence
Adjusted free cash flow was $1,318M in fiscal 2025 and $1,532M in fiscal 2026 (operating cash flow $2,002M less $628M of capital spending plus $158M of disposal proceeds); management guides about $1.6B for fiscal 2027.
sourceJabil Q4 and fiscal 2025 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q3 fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q4 and fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primary
- 2026-10-01editedfiscal 2026 adjusted free cash flow $1,532M reported, above the $1.4B pre-registered line
C19facthigh confidence
Before the print the consensus on the vendor's panel was $16.84 a share of core profit for fiscal 2027; Jabil guided $17.55, and on 2026-10-21 the panel of five analysts stands at $17.68 for fiscal 2027, 5% above the pre-print figure and 1% above the guide, and $22.05 for fiscal 2028 from five analysts.
sourceResearch pack, JBL, 2026-09-27secondaryJabil Q4 and fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryFMP analyst estimates, JBL annual core EPS, read 2026-10-21secondary
- 2026-10-01editedthe fiscal 2027 guide of $17.55 landed 4% above the $16.84 consensus; the consensus will reset and is not re-read here
- 2026-10-21editedConsensus re-read after the guide: fiscal 2027 now $17.68 from five analysts, above both the old $16.84 and the guide.
C56management claimmedium confidence
For fiscal 2027 Jabil guides revenue of about $44.5B, up 24%: Intelligent Infrastructure about $25.6B, up 43% (cloud and data centre $17.5B, up 52%; capital equipment $4.2B, up 40%; networking and communications $3.9B, up 15%), Regulated Industries about $13.6B, up 7%, and Intelligent Devices and Robotics about $5.3B, down 2%; six customers are expected above $1B in the segment, and the second hyperscaler to be a 10%-plus customer.
against this
- Revenue is split 45% to 55% between the halves and the margin is back-end loaded, so the year rests on capacity of about 4 million square feet filling on time.
- Management itself describes its physical-AI forecast as modest and the Connected Living decline of about 15% as chosen, not forced; the second hyperscaler as a 10%-plus customer adds to the concentration in C07.
What management did with the money
Most of the spare cash goes to buying back shares: $1B in fiscal 2025, cutting the share count by 10.8%, and $891M more in nine months of fiscal 2026. It also paid $752M in cash for Hanley Energy, a data-centre power business.
Insiders in 2026Q2: 2 purchases and 16 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C13facthigh confidence
In fiscal 2025 Jabil spent $1,000M buying back 7.64M shares; diluted shares fell 10.8% to 110.9M, so core earnings per share rose 14.8% while core operating income rose 2.0%.
C14facthigh confidence
In the nine months to 2026-05-31 Jabil repurchased 3.7M shares for $891M, leaving $109M of the $1.0B authorisation, and shares outstanding fell to 104.8M from 107.5M at 2025-08-31.
C16facthigh confidence
Jabil bought Hanley Energy, a data-centre power business, on 2026-01-02 for $752M in cash; it is 3.8% of total assets and less than 1% of revenue.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Full on this year's profit, fair on next year's. The price pays for the forecast arriving on time, and for buyers still paying more per dollar of Jabil's profit than they used to.
Share price
$299.79
close,
Price for each $1 of yearly profit
39.1
rivals' middle 39.4 · its 6-year normal 15.9
Jabil reported fiscal 2026 on 30 September 2026 and gave its call that day. The profit forecast cleared the bar, AI growth was put at 54%, and the margin forecast, 6.1%, did not clear 6.2%. The next test is the first quarter of fiscal 2027, due in mid-December.
The shares have run hot and cold. After June's strong results they opened near $412 and fell to about $301 within a month. After this print they fell 10% in a day, and by 20 October they closed at $277.18, level with their usual price on next year's forecast.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C05management claimmedium confidence
Jabil reported fiscal 2026 core operating margin of 5.8% (6.4% in Q4) and guides fiscal 2027 to 6.1%, up 30 basis points, against the '6%+' it had said in June. On the call management said the margin is lighter in the first half and rises in the second as new capacity fills, that the first quarter is 20 basis points up on a year earlier, and that it will try to outperform 6.1%.
sourceJabil Q3 fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q3 fiscal 2026 call transcriptprimaryJabil Q4 and fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q4 fiscal 2026 call and ninth annual investor briefing…primary
against this
- Stifel's June question about the path from 6.4% to 7% is still unanswered by a 6.1% guide; the first-quarter guide midpoint implies 5.7% (core operating income $622M on $11.0B).
- The three-year core margin record before fiscal 2026 sat between 5.0% and 5.5%, and the 6.1% is below the 6.2% the thesis pre-registered as supportive.
- 2026-10-01editedthe fiscal 2027 margin guide arrived: 6.1%, 30 basis points up, short of the 6.2% pre-registered
- 2026-10-21editedQ4 call: shape of the margin through the year; the 6.1% guide itself is unchanged.
C09management claimmedium confidence
Management said on 30 September 2026 that AI-related revenue was about $14.4B in fiscal 2026, up 60% from about $9B, and expects about $22.1B in fiscal 2027, up 54%, with five AI customers above $1B; the earlier figures were about $5B in fiscal 2024.
sourceJabil Q4 fiscal 2025 call and investor briefing transcriptprimaryJabil Q3 fiscal 2026 call transcriptprimaryJabil Q4 fiscal 2026 call and ninth annual investor briefing…primary
against this
- No filing carries the figure; the filed measure is Intelligent Infrastructure, which grew 56% in Q4 and guides to 43% for fiscal 2027.
- Fiscal 2026's $14.4B is above the $13.6B management expected in June, so the guide rests on a base that has already beaten its own forecast, and the chief executive said he is 'always appropriately conservative'.
- 2026-10-01editedthe Q4 release carries no AI-related revenue figure or fiscal 2027 AI growth and no Q4 call was available, so the claim stays management's earlier statement; refresh moved to the Q1 print
- 2026-10-21editedQ4 call: management stated the AI total ($14.4B, up 60%) and guided fiscal 2027 to about $22.1B, up 54%, which the release did not carry.
C20facthigh confidence
The market has sold good results three times in a year: on 2026-06-17, after a beat and a raised outlook, the shares opened at $412.36, touched $428.93 and closed at $374.98, then fell to $301.01 by 2026-07-17; on 2025-09-25, after a beat, they fell 6.7%; on 2026-09-30, after core earnings per share of $4.40 against $4.07 expected and a fiscal 2027 guide above consensus, they fell 10.0%.
sourceResearch pack, JBL, 2026-09-27secondaryJabil Q4 and fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryFMP end-of-day prices, JBL, close of 2026-09-30secondary
- 2026-10-01editedthird sold beat: 2026-09-30, shares down 10.03% on a core earnings beat and a guide above consensus
C45facthigh confidence
On the Q3 call the chief executive told JPMorgan 'we don't get carried away with the numbers' on fiscal 2027 revenue, and said full fiscal 2027 guidance would come at the September investor briefing.
The betSafe, little upside
If it works
1.8×
from today's value, valued like its peers
If it fails
keep 99%
of today's market value: the rest of the company and Intelligent Infrastructure stalled at its lowest case, less debt
How we read the multiple
At about $277 a share, buyers pay about 21 times the profit per share Jabil reported for fiscal 2026 on its own adjusted measure, and about 16 times the $17.55 it forecasts for fiscal 2027. Over six years buyers paid about 16 times.
So the price assumes fiscal 2027 lands as forecast and nothing more. Against its rivals it is not expensive.
Against its own history. Still far above its own normal on this year's profit, and level with it on next year's forecast.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C17facthigh confidence
At $277.18 the shares trade at 28.4 times filed fiscal 2026 diluted earnings of $9.75 against a six-year median of 15.9, and 21.2 times fiscal 2026 core earnings of $13.09.
sourceResearch pack, JBL, 2026-09-27secondaryJabil Q4 and fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryFMP end-of-day prices, JBL, close of 2026-09-30secondaryFMP end-of-day prices, JBL, close of 2026-10-20secondary
- 2026-10-01editedre-struck on the 2026-09-30 close and the reported fiscal 2026 earnings; the enterprise-value comparison is not re-struck and stays in the 2026-09-25 pack
- 2026-10-21editedRe-struck at the 2026-10-20 close of $277.18, down from $286.86 at the print.
C18estimatemedium confidence
At the company's six-year median of 15.9 times earnings, $277.18 needs about $17.43 of earnings per share, 33% above the $13.09 reported for fiscal 2026 and 1% below the $17.55 Jabil guides for fiscal 2027.
sourceJabil Q4 and fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryFMP end-of-day prices, JBL, close of 2026-09-30secondaryFMP end-of-day prices, JBL, close of 2026-10-20secondary
against this
- The business mix is different from the six years the median covers: Intelligent Infrastructure has grown from 32% to 48% of revenue, and a buyer may reasonably pay more for it.
- The filed competitor cohort trades at a median of about 39 times trailing earnings too, so the whole group has been re-priced and Jabil is not dear against it.
- 2026-10-01editedre-struck on the 2026-09-30 close after the 10% fall and the fiscal 2027 guide: the gap to the old multiple is 3% of next year's guided profit, not 57% of this year's
- 2026-10-21editedRe-struck at the 2026-10-20 close: the shares now sit 1% below what the old multiple pays on the fiscal 2027 guide, from 3% above.
C19facthigh confidence
Before the print the consensus on the vendor's panel was $16.84 a share of core profit for fiscal 2027; Jabil guided $17.55, and on 2026-10-21 the panel of five analysts stands at $17.68 for fiscal 2027, 5% above the pre-print figure and 1% above the guide, and $22.05 for fiscal 2028 from five analysts.
sourceResearch pack, JBL, 2026-09-27secondaryJabil Q4 and fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryFMP analyst estimates, JBL annual core EPS, read 2026-10-21secondary
- 2026-10-01editedthe fiscal 2027 guide of $17.55 landed 4% above the $16.84 consensus; the consensus will reset and is not re-read here
- 2026-10-21editedConsensus re-read after the guide: fiscal 2027 now $17.68 from five analysts, above both the old $16.84 and the guide.
C41facthigh confidence
On enterprise value to operating profit Jabil is the second lowest of six in the filed contract-manufacturing cohort.
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on price for each $1 of yearly profit, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | price for each $1 of yearly profit |
|---|---|---|
| CLS | Celestica | 37.6× |
| PLXS | Plexus | 38.0× |
| JBL | Jabil | 39.1× |
| SANM | Sanmina | 39.4× |
| FLEX | Flex | 44.3× |
| BHE | Benchmark Electronics | 55.8× |
The middle of the other 5 is 39.4. Jabil Inc. is 3rd cheapest of 6.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
Near the middle of its rivals. Buyers now pay more per dollar of profit for the whole group, so that shift is the group's, not Jabil's alone.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Hon Hai Precision Industry (Foxconn), Quanta Computer, Wiwynn, Wistron, Customers' own manufacturing.
The bet: what it pays if it works
This bet is on one business only: Intelligent Infrastructure, which builds data-centre, network and chip-equipment hardware. The rest, parts for cars, medical devices and consumer goods, is counted separately at the low price rivals fetch for each dollar of sales, because it barely grows.
If the data-centre business keeps its recent pace for two more years, the stock gains, but well short of doubling: an expensive bet. If it stalls, the rest is worth about half of today's price.
| Intelligent Infrastructure revenue in two to three years | Hyperscale programmes worth $1 billion a year needed | Valued like its peers | Like the cheapest |
|---|---|---|---|
| $28.70B (the big win) | about 13 at 100% kept | 1.8× | 1.4× |
| $31.40B | about 16 at 100% kept | 1.9× | 1.4× |
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $33.39B of Intelligent Infrastructure revenue (about 18 hyperscale programmes worth $1 billion a year); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $101.29B of Intelligent Infrastructure revenue (about 85 hyperscale programmes worth $1 billion a year), at the same multiple.
Each row is Intelligent Infrastructure alone, plus the rest of the company (Regulated Industries and Connected Living) counted at about $17.80B.
The steps it has to take
- Done Intelligent Infrastructure grows 41% over nine months, from existing customers
- Done A third hyperscale customer won, on management's account
- Done Hanley Energy bought, adding data-centre power
- In progress Q1 fiscal 2027: core earnings per share at or above $4.00 and AI growth stated at 40% or more due 2026-12-16
- In progress The North Carolina site reaches a $1 billion annual rate due 2027-08
- In progress Fiscal 2027 delivered at the 6.1% core margin with AI growth near fiscal 2026's due 2027-09
- Not started The third hyperscaler at about $1 billion of fiscal 2028 revenue due 2028-09
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Valued like the cheapest
1.4×
the same success, the lowest comparison
Cheap bet at about
≈ $91.98
69% below the price (close, )
The option
2.7×
what Intelligent Infrastructure is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C48facthigh confidence
Intelligent Infrastructure revenue was $4,169M in Q3 fiscal 2026 against $3,433M a year earlier, up 21% against 41% over the nine months, and $15,791M over the four quarters to 2026-05-31, while Regulated Industries and Connected Living together made $17,799M.
C02facthigh confidence
Intelligent Infrastructure, the segment holding cloud and data-centre, networking and chip-equipment customers, was 48% of Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue against 44% a year earlier; over the nine months it grew 41% to $12,050M while Regulated Industries grew 6% to $9,280M and Connected Living and Digital Commerce fell 5% to $4,008M.
C03facthigh confidence
Jabil raised its fiscal 2026 outlook three times after issuing it: revenue from $31.3B to $32.4B, $34B and then $35B, and core earnings per share from $11.00 to $11.55, $12.25 and then $12.70. It then reported fiscal 2026 core earnings per share of $13.09 on $35,954M of revenue.
sourceJabil Q4 and fiscal 2025 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q1 fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q2 fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q3 fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q4 and fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primary
- 2026-10-01editedfiscal 2026 closed above the last outlook: core earnings per share $13.09 against $12.70
C42facthigh confidence
Segment income fell short of the rise in revenue in fiscal 2025: Intelligent Infrastructure revenue grew 34% to $12,317M at a 5.4% segment margin, and in Q3 fiscal 2026 its margin was 6.1% against 5.3% a year earlier.
C15facthigh confidence
At 2026-05-31 Jabil held $1,360M of cash against $3,378M of debt; in January 2026 it issued $500M of 4.20% notes due 2029 and $500M of 4.75% notes due 2033 and later repaid $500M of 1.70% notes, with $4.4B of unused credit.
Where we disagree with the market
The market believes
Jabil has become an AI hardware builder and deserves a higher price per dollar of profit than contract manufacturers used to get.
We believe
The AI growth is real, but profit per dollar stays near 6 cents, so the price pays for next year and no more.
The AI total everyone quotes, $14.4B this year, is management's own figure and appears in no filing; on the call it guided fiscal 2027 AI sales up 54%. A 6.1% margin forecast answers the June question about 7% with a small step.
We would be wrong if Jabil guides margins to 6.5% or more; it has now stated AI growth of 40% or more, and the profit forecast, $17.55, has cleared the old bar.
What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
90%
of 10, 1 Sep
Four months earlier
80%
of 10, 1 May
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C05management claimmedium confidence
Jabil reported fiscal 2026 core operating margin of 5.8% (6.4% in Q4) and guides fiscal 2027 to 6.1%, up 30 basis points, against the '6%+' it had said in June. On the call management said the margin is lighter in the first half and rises in the second as new capacity fills, that the first quarter is 20 basis points up on a year earlier, and that it will try to outperform 6.1%.
sourceJabil Q3 fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q3 fiscal 2026 call transcriptprimaryJabil Q4 and fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q4 fiscal 2026 call and ninth annual investor briefing…primary
against this
- Stifel's June question about the path from 6.4% to 7% is still unanswered by a 6.1% guide; the first-quarter guide midpoint implies 5.7% (core operating income $622M on $11.0B).
- The three-year core margin record before fiscal 2026 sat between 5.0% and 5.5%, and the 6.1% is below the 6.2% the thesis pre-registered as supportive.
- 2026-10-01editedthe fiscal 2027 margin guide arrived: 6.1%, 30 basis points up, short of the 6.2% pre-registered
- 2026-10-21editedQ4 call: shape of the margin through the year; the 6.1% guide itself is unchanged.
C09management claimmedium confidence
Management said on 30 September 2026 that AI-related revenue was about $14.4B in fiscal 2026, up 60% from about $9B, and expects about $22.1B in fiscal 2027, up 54%, with five AI customers above $1B; the earlier figures were about $5B in fiscal 2024.
sourceJabil Q4 fiscal 2025 call and investor briefing transcriptprimaryJabil Q3 fiscal 2026 call transcriptprimaryJabil Q4 fiscal 2026 call and ninth annual investor briefing…primary
against this
- No filing carries the figure; the filed measure is Intelligent Infrastructure, which grew 56% in Q4 and guides to 43% for fiscal 2027.
- Fiscal 2026's $14.4B is above the $13.6B management expected in June, so the guide rests on a base that has already beaten its own forecast, and the chief executive said he is 'always appropriately conservative'.
- 2026-10-01editedthe Q4 release carries no AI-related revenue figure or fiscal 2027 AI growth and no Q4 call was available, so the claim stays management's earlier statement; refresh moved to the Q1 print
- 2026-10-21editedQ4 call: management stated the AI total ($14.4B, up 60%) and guided fiscal 2027 to about $22.1B, up 54%, which the release did not carry.
C10facthigh confidence
The AI-related revenue total appears in no filing read so far: the 10-Q and the Q4 release give none; management stated it on the 30 September 2026 call.
sourceJabil 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-05-31primaryJabil Q3 fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q4 fiscal 2026 call and ninth annual investor briefing…primary
- 2026-10-21editedQ4 call: the total was stated by management on the call, still not in a filing; the annual report is the remaining check.
C11facthigh confidence
Working capital in Q3 fiscal 2026 was funded by suppliers and banks: receivables sold under factoring programmes were $12,731M over nine months against $7,351M a year earlier, payables reached $11,908M and 135 days against 96, and inventory $5,933M and 84 days.
C18estimatemedium confidence
At the company's six-year median of 15.9 times earnings, $277.18 needs about $17.43 of earnings per share, 33% above the $13.09 reported for fiscal 2026 and 1% below the $17.55 Jabil guides for fiscal 2027.
sourceJabil Q4 and fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryFMP end-of-day prices, JBL, close of 2026-09-30secondaryFMP end-of-day prices, JBL, close of 2026-10-20secondary
against this
- The business mix is different from the six years the median covers: Intelligent Infrastructure has grown from 32% to 48% of revenue, and a buyer may reasonably pay more for it.
- The filed competitor cohort trades at a median of about 39 times trailing earnings too, so the whole group has been re-priced and Jabil is not dear against it.
- 2026-10-01editedre-struck on the 2026-09-30 close after the 10% fall and the fiscal 2027 guide: the gap to the old multiple is 3% of next year's guided profit, not 57% of this year's
- 2026-10-21editedRe-struck at the 2026-10-20 close: the shares now sit 1% below what the old multiple pays on the fiscal 2027 guide, from 3% above.
C21facthigh confidence
The vendor's analyst panel reads 13 buy, 10 hold and no sell; short interest was 2.78% of the free float at the 2026-09-15 settlement.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- One customer, unnamed. A customer Jabil will not name was 16% of sales and a quarter of the money owed to it.
- Foxconn and the buyers themselves. Foxconn is doubling its AI rack shipments, and cloud companies may build their own.
- Borrowed cash flow. If banks stop buying its invoices or suppliers want paying sooner, the cash for buybacks shrinks.
- A margin that will not move. Profit per dollar has sat between 5 and 6 cents for years, and management guides only '6%+'.
- Chip-plant building is falling. US construction of chip and electronics plants nearly halved in a year, which hurts its chip-equipment customers.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C07facthigh confidence
One customer the fiscal 2025 annual report does not name, Customer A, was 16% of fiscal 2025 revenue, booked mainly in Intelligent Infrastructure, and 24% of receivables at 2025-08-31 against 17% a year earlier; the fiscal 2024 annual report had named Apple instead.
C22management claimmedium confidence
Hon Hai (Foxconn) says its share of electronics manufacturing services exceeds 40% and that its AI rack shipments will more than double this year.
against this
The share figure is Foxconn's own and states no denominator, so it cannot be checked against the trade association's market total and is a claim about a definition as much as a measurement.
C11facthigh confidence
Working capital in Q3 fiscal 2026 was funded by suppliers and banks: receivables sold under factoring programmes were $12,731M over nine months against $7,351M a year earlier, payables reached $11,908M and 135 days against 96, and inventory $5,933M and 84 days.
C05management claimmedium confidence
Jabil reported fiscal 2026 core operating margin of 5.8% (6.4% in Q4) and guides fiscal 2027 to 6.1%, up 30 basis points, against the '6%+' it had said in June. On the call management said the margin is lighter in the first half and rises in the second as new capacity fills, that the first quarter is 20 basis points up on a year earlier, and that it will try to outperform 6.1%.
sourceJabil Q3 fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q3 fiscal 2026 call transcriptprimaryJabil Q4 and fiscal 2026 results release, Exhibit 99.1primaryJabil Q4 fiscal 2026 call and ninth annual investor briefing…primary
against this
- Stifel's June question about the path from 6.4% to 7% is still unanswered by a 6.1% guide; the first-quarter guide midpoint implies 5.7% (core operating income $622M on $11.0B).
- The three-year core margin record before fiscal 2026 sat between 5.0% and 5.5%, and the 6.1% is below the 6.2% the thesis pre-registered as supportive.
- 2026-10-01editedthe fiscal 2027 margin guide arrived: 6.1%, 30 basis points up, short of the 6.2% pre-registered
- 2026-10-21editedQ4 call: shape of the margin through the year; the 6.1% guide itself is unchanged.
C35facthigh confidence
The FDA found injectable GLP-1 supply caught up with demand in 2025, Lilly's US Mounjaro revenue still grew 45% in Q2 2026, and the FDA approved orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 that needs no injector pen.
C30facthigh confidence
The Census Bureau puts US data-centre construction at a $75,166M annual rate in July 2026 against $47,810M a year earlier, while construction of computer and electronics plants fell to $51,304M from $96,684M.
What we still do not know
- Who the 16% customer is, and how big it is now. The call says a second cloud customer will pass 10% of sales next year.
- What margin the AI rack work earns against the rest of the segment. Jabil does not split it.
- What cash flow would be without the extra invoices sold to banks. The filings do not separate it.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C07facthigh confidence
One customer the fiscal 2025 annual report does not name, Customer A, was 16% of fiscal 2025 revenue, booked mainly in Intelligent Infrastructure, and 24% of receivables at 2025-08-31 against 17% a year earlier; the fiscal 2024 annual report had named Apple instead.
C42facthigh confidence
Segment income fell short of the rise in revenue in fiscal 2025: Intelligent Infrastructure revenue grew 34% to $12,317M at a 5.4% segment margin, and in Q3 fiscal 2026 its margin was 6.1% against 5.3% a year earlier.
C11facthigh confidence
Working capital in Q3 fiscal 2026 was funded by suppliers and banks: receivables sold under factoring programmes were $12,731M over nine months against $7,351M a year earlier, payables reached $11,908M and 135 days against 96, and inventory $5,933M and 84 days.
C33management claimmedium confidence
Management says Jabil won a third hyperscale customer in Q3 fiscal 2026, worth 'a couple of 100 million' in fiscal 2027 and about $1B in fiscal 2028, and that its new North Carolina site should reach $1B, $2B and $3B annual rates over three years.
against this
- No customer is named, no contract is filed, and the site for the third hyperscaler is undecided: 'it might be North Carolina, it might be somewhere else'.
- The Adani data-centre alliance described on the same call is not definitive and management places it in fiscal 2028 at the earliest.
C56management claimmedium confidence
For fiscal 2027 Jabil guides revenue of about $44.5B, up 24%: Intelligent Infrastructure about $25.6B, up 43% (cloud and data centre $17.5B, up 52%; capital equipment $4.2B, up 40%; networking and communications $3.9B, up 15%), Regulated Industries about $13.6B, up 7%, and Intelligent Devices and Robotics about $5.3B, down 2%; six customers are expected above $1B in the segment, and the second hyperscaler to be a 10%-plus customer.
against this
- Revenue is split 45% to 55% between the halves and the margin is back-end loaded, so the year rests on capacity of about 4 million square feet filling on time.
- Management itself describes its physical-AI forecast as modest and the Connected Living decline of about 15% as chosen, not forced; the second hyperscaler as a 10%-plus customer adds to the concentration in C07.
What would change our view
- Attractive→NeutralThe price runs past the old multiple
It needs:
- ○The price rises to about 24.5 times the profit per share Jabil reported for fiscal 2026, well past the usual multiple on next year's forecast.about $320.33 today, 7% above the last close
- Attractive→NeutralAI growth is guided below the line
It needs:
- ○Jabil forecasts AI sales growing less than 40% in fiscal 2027.checked at the next results, due by 16 Dec
- Attractive→UnattractiveThe margin or the customer turns
It needs any of:
- ○It forecasts fiscal 2027 profit margins below this year's 5.8%.checked at the next results, due by 16 Dec
- ○The unnamed customer passes a quarter of sales, or moves racks to another builder.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
- AI-infrastructure sales fall from a year earlier in any quarter of fiscal 2027.
- Yearly free cash flow drops below $1.3B while invoice sales keep rising.
What is coming
- October 2026 Fiscal 2026 annual report (10-K): The full-year segment split, whether Customer A's share and receivables concentration grew past 16% and 24%, and whether risk factors finally name AI demand.
Every dated event ahead
- October 2026 Fiscal 2026 annual report (10-K): The full-year segment split, whether Customer A's share and receivables concentration grew past 16% and 24%, and whether risk factors finally name AI demand.
- 16 December 2026 Q1 fiscal 2027 results: Core earnings per share against the $3.80 to $4.20 range, the $17.55 outlook and $22.1B AI guide held or cut, and the margin shape.
- January 2027 2027 proxy statement and annual meeting: Fiscal 2026 bonus and award payouts against their goals, insiders' holdings after this year's sales, and whether the two directors who lost majority support stand again.
- March 2027 Q2 fiscal 2027 results: Whether the third hyperscale customer and the North Carolina site begin to show in Intelligent Infrastructure growth, and the core margin's path toward 6.1%.
Since we wrote this
Written
27 Sep
Price the thesis read
$316.74
25 Sep
Latest close
$299.79
close, · -5.4% since
- 21 OctEarningsCall put AI growth at 54%; old-multiple route firedThe call stated AI revenue up 54% for next year, and the shares fell to the old multiple on the guide with consensus above it. We recommend moving the view to Attractive.
- 21 OctThesis reviewView moved from Neutral to AttractiveThe price fell to the old multiple while the call showed AI growth of 54%; the owner approved the move.
- 13 OctNewsJabil and Adani sign a non-binding pact for a 50:50 India hardware venture. View heldNon-binding MoU with Adani Enterprises for a 50:50 India data-center hardware joint venture.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe bet now names what it ridesThe owner asked that every bet name the macro trend behind it, after BWXT's bet was missing its chief executive's case for nuclear over gas.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
- 2 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Priced for success to Safe, little upsideRe-priced at the 1 October close.
- 1 OctEarningsGuide beats on profit, misses margin line; view heldFiscal 2027 core earnings per share guided at $17.55 but core margin at 6.1%, under the 6.2% we set. Shares fell 10%, leaving them 3% above what their old multiple pays on that guide.
- 27 SepThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten three days before the fiscal 2026 results and the first fiscal 2027 forecast.
Also checked 6 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 38
Where this came from
Sources - 38
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2025-10-17the business description and operating model, the three segments and their end markets, the Competition section naming classes only, the customer table with the unnamed Customer A and Customer B, segment income and its definition, the GAAP to core reconciliation, the debt table, the buyback and warrant disclosures, the Mobility sale and the acquisitionsbacksC01C04C06C07C13C26C28C32C36C39C40C42C43C48C50C53C54
- S02primarycompany filing2024-10-28the customer table that still named Apple, the old EMS and DMS segment definitions, and the risk factors the fiscal 2025 annual report was compared againstbacksC07C39C53C54
- S03primarycompany release2025-09-25fiscal 2025 GAAP and core results, adjusted free cash flow, and the first fiscal 2026 outlookbacksC03C04C06C12C13
- S04primarytranscript2025-09-25Jabil Q4 fiscal 2025 call and investor briefing transcriptmanagement's AI-related revenue history and fiscal 2026 outlook, the 6%-plus long-term margin and $1.5B free cash flow frame, the 80% capital return intentionbacksC09
- S05primarycompany release2025-12-17the first raise of the fiscal 2026 outlookbacksC03
- S06primarytranscript2025-12-17Jabil Q1 fiscal 2026 call transcriptthe second hyperscaler's AI storage racks at roughly $1B, and the consignment model for the largest customerbacksC44
- S07primarycompany release2026-03-18the second raise of the fiscal 2026 outlookbacksC03
- S08primarytranscript2026-03-18Jabil Q2 fiscal 2026 call transcriptsegment and end-market outlooks, the AI-related revenue raise to $13.1Bread, but no claim rests on it
- S09primarycompany release2026-06-17Q3 GAAP and core results, the Q4 guide, the third raise of the fiscal 2026 outlook and nine-month adjusted free cash flowbacksC03C05C10C12
- S10primarytranscript2026-06-17Jabil Q3 fiscal 2026 call transcriptmanagement's answers on AI-related revenue, the third hyperscaler, North Carolina, fiscal 2027 margins and capacity; nine analysts' questions, a separate origin from the answers, including Stifel's unanswered question on the path to 7%
The third hyperscaler, I expect it to be in that couple of 100 million range for 2027, rapidly expanding to billion dollar and then beyond in 2028.
backsC05C09C33C45 - S11primarycompany filing2026-06-30segment revenue and income, the end-market growth contributions, the top-five customer share, receivables sold, payables and inventory days, net-basis components, debt and notes issued, buybacks and remaining authorisation, shares outstanding, the Hanley acquisition, and the filed fiscal 2027 capital spending rangebacksC02C08C10C11C14C15C16C32C42C43C44C48C49
- S12secondaryvendor data2026-09-27Research pack, JBL, 2026-09-27price and enterprise value, the ratio series against six-year medians, the filed-cohort multiples, analyst estimates and panel split, FINRA short interest at the 2026-09-15 settlement, daily price bars around each results day, and the insider transaction rosterbacksC17C19C20C21C38C41
- S13primarycompany filing2026-02-27a competitor's own figures for the same demand, its list of EMS competitors naming Jabil, and its warning about customers manufacturing internallybacksC24
- S14primarycompany filing2026-05-20Flex's Cloud and Power Infrastructure segment growth, and its warning that hyperscale customers may build their own manufacturingbacksC25
- S15primaryindustry data2026-05-27Global Electronics Association (formerly IPC), acquisition of New Venture Research's EMS program Global Electronics Associationthe size and growth of the outsourced electronics manufacturing market, measured by the industry's trade association rather than any seller
The global EMS market continued its recovery in 2024, growing 3.2% after declines in previous years. The market reached approximately $658 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a 4.6% CAGR in the years ahead. The broader global electronics assembly market totaled approximately $1.63 trillion in 2024, with OEMs continuing to account for the majority of overall production.
backsC27 - S16primaryindustry data2026-08-24Global Electronics Association, North American EMS statistical program, July 2026 Global Electronics Associationthe industry's own order and shipment rate for North American contract manufacturing
The book-to-bill ratio stands at 1.29. Total North American EMS shipments in July 2026 were down 0.3% compared o the same month last year. July’s year-to-date (YTD) shipments increased by 6.2% year-over-year (YOY). EMS bookings in July increased 44.3% year-over-year
backsC29 - S17primarygovernment data2026-09-01US Census Bureau, Value of Private Construction Put in Place, seasonally adjusted annual rate (privsatime.xlsx) US Census Bureaudata-centre construction spending measured by a statistical agency, and the fall in computer and electronics plant construction
Value of Private Construction Put in Place - Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Millions of dollars, column Data center, row Jul-26p 75166, row Jul-25 47810; column Computer/ electronic/ electrical, row Jul-26p 51304, row Jul-25 96684
backsC30 - S18primarycompany filing2026-07-31a buyer's own capital spending, in its own filingbacksC31
- S19primarycompany filing2026-07-24a buyer's purchases of property and equipment for the half-yearbacksC31
- S20primarycompany filing2026-07-30a buyer's additions to property and equipment for the fiscal yearbacksC31
- S21primarycompany filing2026-07-30a buyer's 2026 capital spending planread, but no claim rests on it
- S22primarycompany release2026-08-12Hon Hai (Foxconn) Q2 2026 results release, company newsroom Hon Hai Precision Industrythe largest competitor's own statement of its share and its AI rack growth
For the full year this year, AI rack shipments are also expected to more than double. The Group’s market share in electronics manufacturing services (EMS) exceeds 40%
backsC22 - S23primarycompany filing2026-02-25which contract manufacturers the leading accelerator maker namesbacksC23
- S24primaryother2024-04-01a customer's own list naming Jabil, with sites in China, India and Taiwan, beside Hon Hai, Flex and Luxshare
The Apple supplier list represents 98 percent of our direct spend for materials, manufacturing, and assembly of our products worldwide for fiscal year 2023.
backsC34 - S25primaryregulator2026-04-01the regulator's finding that injectable GLP-1 supply caught up with demand
FDA confirmed with the drug’s manufacturer that their stated product availability and manufacturing capacity can meet the present and projected national demand.
backsC35 - S26primarycompany filing2026-08-06injectable GLP-1 revenue growth and the FDA approval of an oral GLP-1 that needs no penbacksC35
- S27primarygovernment data2025-06-30North Carolina Governor's office, Jabil selects Rowan County State of North Carolinathe state's own record of the United States AI capacity investment and its 1,181 jobs
The company says it will invest approximately $500 million over several years to establish a manufacturing facility to support cloud and AI data center customers.
backsC40 - S28primarygovernment data2026-01-14The White House, proclamation adjusting imports of semiconductors and derivative products (Section 232) The White Housethe tariff on advanced chips and derivative products, and its exemption for United States data-centre use
this duty rate not apply to imports of these Covered Products for use in United States data centers
backsC46 - S29primarycompany filing2025-11-13a competitor naming Jabil among the global EMS providers, and its purchase of ZT Systems' data-centre manufacturingread, but no claim rests on it
- S30primarycompany filing2026-09-27Jabil insiders' Form 4 filings, 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-27 (read by insider_fetch.py)each open-market sale and purchase with its Rule 10b5-1 flagbacksC38
- S31primarygovernment data2024-12-20US Department of Energy, report on data-centre electricity demand (LBNL) US Department of Energya federal estimate of how fast data-centre load is growing
total data center electricity usage climbed from 58 TWh in 2014 to 176 TWh in 2023 and estimates an increase between 325 to 580 TWh by 2028.
backsC47 - S32primarycompany release2026-09-30fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 GAAP and core results, the cash flow statement, the first-quarter fiscal 2027 guide and the fiscal 2027 outlook of $44.5B revenue, 6.1% core operating margin, $17.55 core earnings per share and about $1.6B adjusted free cash flowbacksC03C05C12C17C18C19C20C53C54
- S33secondaryvendor data2026-10-01FMP end-of-day prices, JBL, close of 2026-09-30the $286.86 close of 2026-09-30 and the 10.03% fall on the day, read by news_reaction.pybacksC17C18C20
- S34primarycompany filing2025-12-12beneficial ownership at the 2025-11-28 record date, the fiscal 2025 bonus metrics, goals and payout, the long-term award metrics and the fiscal 2023 award's vesting, the named executive officersbacksC50C51C52
- S35primarycompany filing2026-04-22that John Plant and Tiger Tyagarajan did not receive a majority of votes cast at the 2026 annual meeting and that the board rejected their resignationsbacksC55
- S36primarytranscript2026-09-30AI-related revenue of about $14.4B in fiscal 2026 and a guide of about $22.1B in fiscal 2027; the fiscal 2027 outlook by segment and end market; the first-half-light margin shape; six analysts' questions, a separate origin from the answers
In fiscal 2027, we expect that to grow to approximately $22.1 billion, up 54%.
backsC05C09C10C56 - S37secondaryvendor data2026-10-21FMP analyst estimates, JBL annual core EPS, read 2026-10-21fiscal 2027 consensus core earnings per share of $17.68 from five analysts and fiscal 2028 of $22.05 from fivebacksC19
- S38secondaryvendor data2026-10-21FMP end-of-day prices, JBL, close of 2026-10-20the $277.18 close of 2026-10-20, the last completed sessionbacksC17C18