TTM Technologies
An American maker of complex circuit boards for AI servers and US defense programs, which also builds radar and radio systems.
The scores
Growth4/4 ↑
Sales up 60% in September and 2026 guided up 54%, with 2027 guided to $6.5B or more, though much rests on one new board.
Business quality3/4 →
Export rules wall off defense boards, and AI customers chose its new boards, but the commercial process is unprotected and a Chinese rival grows faster.
Financial position3/4 ↓
Leverage was 2.8 times at 30 September against 2.3 planned, with $650M more going on Ophir; September free cash flow was $74.8M.
Execution record4/4 ↑
EPS beat at $1.46 against $1.25 and the guide rose a third time; but data center mix and the new boards ran behind plan.
Per share capture3/4 ↓
Diluted shares rose 2.6% while sales rose 37%, but stock pay doubled and Epiq takes EPS down until 2028.
Potential2/4 ↑
Boards are a $92B market growing 14%, and defense munitions requests jump, but the upside rests on purchase orders and an unfunded budget request.
Risk profile3/4 ↓
Two customers are 26% of sales, AI boards come from Chinese plants, and leverage rose; no single ruling decides it.
Valuation3/4 ↑
At 26 times operating income the price needs about 12% yearly growth to 2029, below management's target and the 2027 forecast.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Sales, segments, customers and debt are filed, but the big customers and Epiq's figures are not, and nobody free measures AI board shares.
The Verdict
We rate TTM Technologies neutral. It makes the many-layered circuit boards inside AI servers, and boards and radar for US defense that export rules keep in American plants, so the business is solid. September sales beat the forecast and the price now needs only about 12% growth a year to 2029, so it is fair. We hold at neutral because the call put the new boards behind the plan and the two big customers' share is not yet published.
The long caseAI servers need boards with more layers and defence budgets favour missiles and radar; TTM must deliver its new boards on time and beyond two customers.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
The wall keeps out foreign plants, not US rivals: Sanmina, Mercury and Curtiss-Wright compete inside it (S01).
GAAP EPS of $0.79 is 46% below non-GAAP $1.46: stock pay ($24.1M, double a year earlier), acquisition costs and derivative losses are added back, and the tax charge was 40% of pre-tax income (S23).
The 2027 forecast includes the acquired businesses and the company value above leaves out their debt, so the comparison flatters the price; Epiq and STG add about $1.5B of value (C24, C30, C57).
- 2026-10-22editedre-struck at the 21 October close and the new trailing operating income; the 2026 base is now the raised guide
In April management said data center and networking had about ten major customers with only one above 10%, so the second large customer is new this year (S05).
- Only tens of millions had shipped by August, so most of the $600M is still a production ramp, not a delivery record (S04).
- No buyer is named, and two customers became 26% of sales in the same half (S02).
- Data center and networking was 41% of September-quarter sales, not the planned 49%, and the release does not give N+M sales, so the third of $600M due in the quarter is unconfirmed (S23).
- The call put N+M at about 30% of data center sales in September and December, about $150M and $210M against the $200M and $400M above, with one of three programmes moving to the right on the customer's schedule (C59, C60).
- 2026-10-22editedthe September data center mix came in under the 49% plan and N+M sales were not disclosed
- 2026-10-22editedthe earnings call gave N+M's share of data center sales; the plan wording stands as what management said in August
- Ophir Optics adds $650M of cash spending funded partly from the revolver, so reaching the target depends on cash flow and the pro-forma EBITDA base, neither shown in the release (S23).
- On the call management said no equity or capital markets raise is planned and expects under 2 times at the Ophir close in the second quarter of 2027, with the $400M N+M plan funded from operating cash (C62).
- 2026-10-22editedthe earnings call restated the leverage plan and the capital plan
- Asked directly whether N+M had been about $200M in September and would be about $400M in December, as stated in August, the chief executive said 'probably not' exactly and then said 'slightly more than 200 and slightly below 400', which his own 30% share does not reproduce (C60).
- Programme timing at customers is the reason given for the shortfall, and the customers are the two buyers who were 26% of June sales, so a slip at one of them moves the whole quarter; the third programme is not yet in volume production (S25).
The company
Every electronic system sits on a circuit board: thin layers of copper and glass-fibre sheet, pressed together and drilled so signals can pass between layers. An AI server's board can have more than 70 layers, and TTM is building one with 78.
TTM builds boards to its customers' designs. Its Commercial side sells to makers of AI servers, network gear, medical devices and cars. Its defense side sells boards, radio parts and radar to defense contractors and governments, work US export rules keep away from foreign factories.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
It holds about 185 patents with 84 pending and says its fabrication techniques and proprietary board structures matter, so some process knowledge is protected (S01).
How it makes money
TTM is paid per board or system delivered, on purchase orders. In Q2 2026 Commercial brought in $621.6M and defense $382.8M.
Of each dollar of sales, about 21 cents is left after the cost of making the boards and about 11 cents after running the company. Commercial now earns slightly more per dollar than defense, which is why the AI boards matter so much to profit.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
In April management said data center and networking had about ten major customers with only one above 10%, so the second large customer is new this year (S05).
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (Q2 2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Data center and networking | 40% | High-layer and N+M boards built to the designs of AI server, switch and networking customers, sold on purchase orders. |
| Aerospace and defense | 37% | Export-controlled boards, assemblies, RF parts and radar and intercom systems sold to prime contractors and the U.S. government. |
| Medical, industrial and instrumentation | 15% | Boards for medical devices, industrial equipment and test instruments, sold to their makers and contract assemblers. |
| Automotive | 8% | Boards for car electronics, mostly driver assistance and powertrain modules, sold to suppliers and contract assemblers. |
Who runs it
Edwin Roks, who ran the largest division at the instrument maker Teledyne, became chief executive in September 2025; Dan Boehle, once finance chief at the rocket-engine maker Aerojet Rocketdyne, has run finance since 2023. Insiders own only about 1% of the company, and Roks owned nothing until he bought shares after the summer fall. Their yearly bonus rides mostly on operating profit and cash flow, their shares on sales, a broad profit measure and the stock against peers; none of it on profit per share.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Roks bought 10,000 shares in the open market on 25 August 2026, after the table was struck (C36, S20).
No metric pays on earnings per share or return on capital, and revenue and adjusted EBITDA both rise with an acquisition such as Epiq whatever it does to EPS (C25).
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
Defense customers come back because they have to. Boards designed for weapons and military systems are controlled under US export rules, so they must be made in cleared US plants. That supports $1.7B of defense orders waiting to be filled.
AI customers come back for a different reason: TTM can build the next, harder board in volume when they need it. TTM's own annual report admits its methods are not protected by patents, so that lead has to be won again with each new board generation.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
The wall keeps out foreign plants, not US rivals: Sanmina, Mercury and Curtiss-Wright compete inside it (S01).
It holds about 185 patents with 84 pending and says its fabrication techniques and proprietary board structures matter, so some process knowledge is protected (S01).
Yields on N+M ran better than planned and two customers concentrated on TTM, which fits a lead built on process know-how (C11, C09).
The FY2027 munitions figures are a budget request, not money appropriated (S17).
The share figure is an offering's commissioned estimate, not an audited one (S15).
The threat
The danger sits in China. Victory Giant, which TTM names as a rival, grew sales 79.8% in 2025, keeps about 22 cents of profit per dollar against TTM's roughly 8, and claims the largest share of AI server boards. Makers in Taiwan and Korea chase the same orders. On commercial boards, the price is set by rivals cheaper than TTM.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
The share figure is an offering's commissioned estimate, not an audited one (S15).
Victory Giant's profit includes China tax incentives TTM's US and defense plants do not get, so part of the gap is location rather than pricing power (S15, S01).
It holds about 185 patents with 84 pending and says its fabrication techniques and proprietary board structures matter, so some process knowledge is protected (S01).
The rivals: MRCY, CW, DRS, SANM, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | Where it competes | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chinese high-layer board makers: Victory Giant, WUS Printed Circuit, Kinwong and Founder TechnologyPriced against it: Listed abroad | Commercial printed circuit boards | On sale | Listed abroad | |
| Taiwanese, Korean and Austrian makers: Gold Circuit, Unimicron, Isu Petasys and AT&SPriced against it: Listed abroad | Commercial printed circuit boards | On sale | Listed abroad | |
| MRCY · CW · DRS | US and European defense electronics makers: Mercury Systems, Curtiss-Wright, Leonardo DRS and BAE SystemsPriced against it: Different product | Aerospace & defense boards and systems | On sale | Different product |
| SANM | Sanmina, a US contract manufacturer with defense board and assembly workPriced against it: Different product | Aerospace & defense boards and systems | On sale | Different product |
How big it could get
How big this could get
The world made about $92.36B of circuit boards in 2025, up 15.4%, and an industry group expects about $105.2B in 2026 as AI servers need more and richer boards. TTM's whole sales were equal to about 3.1% of that, so the market is not the limit. Winning the hardest AI and defense boards is.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Victory Giant's offering cites Frost & Sullivan's split of the same market by board type, which sizes no AI or defense slice (S15).
- TTM's sales include RF parts, radar and communications systems, so its share of boards alone is smaller than this (S01).
- Victory Giant claims 13.8% of AI and high-performance computing boards, the slice TTM's growth comes from, so a whole-market share understates how contested that slice is (S15).
Who has signed
Nobody has signed a long contract. TTM held $901M of orders due within three months and $1.7B of defense orders, which governments can still cancel. Most of the growth expected for late 2026 and 2027 rests on orders not yet placed.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
Commercial orders can be cancelled, and visibility on running business is six to nine months, so backlog is a forecast with paper behind it (S06).
The FY2027 munitions figures are a budget request, not money appropriated (S17).
Where the growth is coming from, business by business
Where the growth is coming from
| Business | Share of revenue | Growth: last quarter | Last half-year | Last year | Share in 3 years at its half-year rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial printed circuit boards | 58% | +44.3% | +29.2% | +19.2% | 67% |
| Aerospace & defense boards and systems | 42% | +14.9% | +15.1% | +14.5% | 33% |
| Whole company | 100% | +30.4% | +22.6% | +17.0% | 100% |
On the filed split through 2026-03-30, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 23% next year and 24% in year 3, against 27.6% over the last twelve months. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.
How we read it: The mapped split runs only through March 2026, before June's 57% Commercial quarter and the N+M ramp, so the score reads the filed total and the guide rather than the split.
The results
The numbers
Sales grew 38% over the twelve months to Sep 2026, faster than the 19% in the year to Dec 2025.
Operating margin is 11%, up from 1.9% in the year to Jan 2024.
Running costs take 11¢ of each sales dollar, about where it was (11¢) in the year to Jan 2022.
Each dollar put into the business earns 11% a year after tax, up from 4.2% in the year to Jan 2022.
It turned 0.4% of sales into free cash, $14.8M over the last twelve months.
It owes $768M more than the cash it holds, about 2.3 years of the cash its operations bring in.
The share count barely moved in 4.7 years, and pay in shares costs 1.9% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-28. Fiscal years end in December.
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2024 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | 12 mo to Sep 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $2.25B | $2.50B | $2.23B | $2.44B | $2.91B | $3.83B |
| Sales growth | +6.8% | +11% | −11% | +9.4% | +19% | +38% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Gross margin | 17% | 18% | 19% | 20% | 21% | 22% |
| Operating margin | 5.6% | 8.4% | 1.9% | 4.8% | 9.1% | 11% |
| Net margin | 2.4% | 3.8% | −0.8% | 2.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Research and development | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Sales and marketing | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| General and admin | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% |
| Pay in shares | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% |
| Capital spending | 3.6% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 10% | 8.4% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | $177M | $273M | $187M | $237M | $292M | $336M |
| Free cash flow | $94.7M | $170M | $27.0M | $51.2M | −$683K | $14.8M |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $538M | $403M | $450M | $504M | $501M | $876M |
| Debt | $928M | $929M | $918M | $918M | $916M | $1.64B |
| Net cash | −$390M | −$527M | −$468M | −$414M | −$415M | −$768M |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Return on capital | 4.2% | 4.5% | - | 3.2% | 8.7% | 11% |
| Shares (diluted) | 108M | 104M | 103M | 104M | 105M | 108M |
What growth costs
Growing has made TTM more profitable: running costs rise more slowly than sales, and each board keeps a little more. But each new dollar of sales now needs far more factory spending than it used to, and stock pay is rising, so cash left over lags the profit.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
In 2023, when sales fell 11%, operating margin dropped from 8.4% to 1.9% and these running costs rose from 10.3 cents to 11.3, so the leverage runs both ways (S01).
Management says the AI spending is added equipment in existing Chinese plants, not new factories, which keeps it cheaper per dollar of sales (S06).
The last report (5 Aug)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
September sales were $1,203.9M, up 60%, above the $1.10B to $1.14B forecast. Gross margin rose to 24.2% from 21.1%, and adjusted EPS was $1.46 against $1.25 expected. Management forecast $1.42B to $1.44B for December and $6.5B to $6.75B for 2027, including the deals closed. Debt was 2.8 times yearly profit, against 2.3 planned.
On the call the chief executive said the new N+M boards were about 30% of data center sales, which works out near $150M, not the $200M planned, because one of three customer programmes moved later. He expects about half of data center sales from N+M in 2027.
What it did to the thesisThe call answers the question left open: the new boards are selling, but behind the August plan, and the customers' share is still unpublished. The beat is real; the proof is not complete, so the view stays Neutral.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $0.99 against $0.89 expected; $0.77 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
GAAP EPS of $0.79 is 46% below non-GAAP $1.46: stock pay ($24.1M, double a year earlier), acquisition costs and derivative losses are added back, and the tax charge was 40% of pre-tax income (S23).
The release gives neither the N+M board sales nor the two largest customers' share, and the data center mix came in eight points under the plan in C11, so the sales beat did not come only from the new boards (S23).
- The 2027 range is 45% to 51% above 2026, but it includes Epiq and STG for a full year, so the organic part is not stated and cannot be set against the 15% to 20% target (S23).
- The chief executive said about $500M of the 2027 forecast is acquired sales, but his list appears to include Ophir Optics, which the release excludes, so the organic rate remains unconfirmed (C61).
- 2026-10-22editedthe earnings call gave the acquired part of 2027
- Ophir Optics adds $650M of cash spending funded partly from the revolver, so reaching the target depends on cash flow and the pro-forma EBITDA base, neither shown in the release (S23).
- On the call management said no equity or capital markets raise is planned and expects under 2 times at the Ophir close in the second quarter of 2027, with the $400M N+M plan funded from operating cash (C62).
- 2026-10-22editedthe earnings call restated the leverage plan and the capital plan
- Only tens of millions had shipped by August, so most of the $600M is still a production ramp, not a delivery record (S04).
- No buyer is named, and two customers became 26% of sales in the same half (S02).
- Data center and networking was 41% of September-quarter sales, not the planned 49%, and the release does not give N+M sales, so the third of $600M due in the quarter is unconfirmed (S23).
- The call put N+M at about 30% of data center sales in September and December, about $150M and $210M against the $200M and $400M above, with one of three programmes moving to the right on the customer's schedule (C59, C60).
- 2026-10-22editedthe September data center mix came in under the 49% plan and N+M sales were not disclosed
- 2026-10-22editedthe earnings call gave N+M's share of data center sales; the plan wording stands as what management said in August
In April management said data center and networking had about ten major customers with only one above 10%, so the second large customer is new this year (S05).
- Asked directly whether N+M had been about $200M in September and would be about $400M in December, as stated in August, the chief executive said 'probably not' exactly and then said 'slightly more than 200 and slightly below 400', which his own 30% share does not reproduce (C60).
- Programme timing at customers is the reason given for the shortfall, and the customers are the two buyers who were 26% of June sales, so a slip at one of them moves the whole quarter; the third programme is not yet in volume production (S25).
- The chief executive's own spoken figures, slightly above $200M for September and slightly under $400M for December, would make N+M roughly 40% and 55% of data center sales, not 30%; the vendor's transcript may have dropped or garbled a word, and the 10-Q or the December report is the way to settle it.
- The December data center forecast of about $700M is itself the company's, struck before the third programme's ramp is proven.
What management did with the money
It spent big. Planned equipment spending for 2026 rose from $240M to $260M to $345M to $365M, and in September TTM paid $1.1B for Epiq, which makes radios for spying on and jamming enemy signals, with new loans and bonds. Management says Epiq lifts earnings per share only from 2028.
Insiders in 2026Q3: 2 purchases and 3 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
No Epiq revenue, GAAP profit or historical statements have been filed, so the multiple rests on management's 2027 forecast (S08, S09).
Management says the AI spending is added equipment in existing Chinese plants, not new factories, which keeps it cheaper per dollar of sales (S06).
First-half free cash flow was negative while capital spending rose, so deleveraging depends on the second-half ramp (S02).
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Fair. The price pays for growth below management's own target, but the new boards behind this year's jump are not yet confirmed.
The shares fell by more than half between June and late July with the rest of the AI hardware group, though nothing changed at the company. They fell again after the Epiq purchase in August, when the chief executive and a director bought shares.
On 21 October they closed at $102.15, 22.5% below 2 October. The next day TTM reported record sales and said its new boards ran behind plan; the Q3 10-Q will show the two big customers' share.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
- 2026-10-22editedre-struck at the 21 October close, the session before the September-quarter print
No Epiq revenue, GAAP profit or historical statements have been filed, so the multiple rests on management's 2027 forecast (S08, S09).
GAAP EPS of $0.79 is 46% below non-GAAP $1.46: stock pay ($24.1M, double a year earlier), acquisition costs and derivative losses are added back, and the tax charge was 40% of pre-tax income (S23).
- Asked directly whether N+M had been about $200M in September and would be about $400M in December, as stated in August, the chief executive said 'probably not' exactly and then said 'slightly more than 200 and slightly below 400', which his own 30% share does not reproduce (C60).
- Programme timing at customers is the reason given for the shortfall, and the customers are the two buyers who were 26% of June sales, so a slip at one of them moves the whole quarter; the third programme is not yet in volume production (S25).
How we read the multiple
Buyers pay about 26 times the last year's operating profit, down from 43 on 2 October. Working back:
- The business, before the new purchases, is valued at about $11.23B; grown 10% a year, that is about $14.9B in 2029.
- At 20 times profit, a common price for a large manufacturer, that needs about $747M of operating profit.
- At a 12% margin, a little below September's 13.5%, that is about $6.2B of sales.
- That is about 12% growth a year from 2026, below management's 15% to 20% target.
Against its own history. Far above what buyers paid for this company in past years, because they now expect AI servers to keep growth fast for years, not the slow board business it was.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
Net debt is now about $2.0B after Epiq and STG, so a company value counting them is near $12.8B; the trailing operating income carries almost none of their profit, so the pre-deal frame still leaves out their growth and their debt (C28, C58).
- 2026-10-22editedthe price fell 22.5% and trailing operating income rose from $334.2M to $424.5M
The 2027 forecast includes the acquired businesses and the company value above leaves out their debt, so the comparison flatters the price; Epiq and STG add about $1.5B of value (C24, C30, C57).
- 2026-10-22editedre-struck at the 21 October close and the new trailing operating income; the 2026 base is now the raised guide
- The ballpark figure was the analyst's, not management's, and management deferred out-year detail to the next quarter (S04).
- On the 22 October call the chief executive tied 2027 to about 50% growth, with about $500M of it acquired, and N+M reaching about half of data center sales, which puts the organic rate well above 15% to 20% only if that N+M share arrives (C61).
- 2026-10-22editedthe earnings call tied 2027 to the N+M share and gave the acquired part
The snapshot counts 14 analysts and the dated series 4, so the panel size depends on which vendor endpoint is read (S12).
GAAP EPS of $0.79 is 46% below non-GAAP $1.46: stock pay ($24.1M, double a year earlier), acquisition costs and derivative losses are added back, and the tax charge was 40% of pre-tax income (S23).
Priced against its rivals
None of the listed rivals above sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.
Where we disagree with the market
An AI and defense winner whose fast growth will last, as almost every analyst says.
A strong year built on one new board for few customers, in a business rivals can copy, now priced below management's own target.
The market may be missing how narrow the jump is. Two customers went from one at 12% to 26% of sales in a year, and commercial boards are won again at every generation, against rivals growing faster.
Against us: September sales beat the forecast by $64M, the 2027 forecast is $6.5B or more, and the guide was raised in April, August and October, so the growth may be broader than we think.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 8 claims
The snapshot counts 14 analysts and the dated series 4, so the panel size depends on which vendor endpoint is read (S12).
In April management said data center and networking had about ten major customers with only one above 10%, so the second large customer is new this year (S05).
- Only tens of millions had shipped by August, so most of the $600M is still a production ramp, not a delivery record (S04).
- No buyer is named, and two customers became 26% of sales in the same half (S02).
- Data center and networking was 41% of September-quarter sales, not the planned 49%, and the release does not give N+M sales, so the third of $600M due in the quarter is unconfirmed (S23).
- The call put N+M at about 30% of data center sales in September and December, about $150M and $210M against the $200M and $400M above, with one of three programmes moving to the right on the customer's schedule (C59, C60).
- 2026-10-22editedthe September data center mix came in under the 49% plan and N+M sales were not disclosed
- 2026-10-22editedthe earnings call gave N+M's share of data center sales; the plan wording stands as what management said in August
Yields on N+M ran better than planned and two customers concentrated on TTM, which fits a lead built on process know-how (C11, C09).
The 2027 forecast includes the acquired businesses and the company value above leaves out their debt, so the comparison flatters the price; Epiq and STG add about $1.5B of value (C24, C30, C57).
- 2026-10-22editedre-struck at the 21 October close and the new trailing operating income; the 2026 base is now the raised guide
GAAP EPS of $0.79 is 46% below non-GAAP $1.46: stock pay ($24.1M, double a year earlier), acquisition costs and derivative losses are added back, and the tax charge was 40% of pre-tax income (S23).
- The 2027 range is 45% to 51% above 2026, but it includes Epiq and STG for a full year, so the organic part is not stated and cannot be set against the 15% to 20% target (S23).
- The chief executive said about $500M of the 2027 forecast is acquired sales, but his list appears to include Ophir Optics, which the release excludes, so the organic rate remains unconfirmed (C61).
- 2026-10-22editedthe earnings call gave the acquired part of 2027
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- Two big customers. Two unnamed buyers took 26% of sales in the first half of 2026, and neither has to keep ordering.
- Plants in China. The AI boards are made at two plants in China, where about half of 2025 sales were produced outside the US.
- Cheaper rivals. Chinese rival Victory Giant grows faster and keeps far more profit per dollar on the same AI boards.
- More debt. Borrowing for Epiq lifted net debt to about $2.0B, while first-half free cash flow was negative.
- Defense money not yet voted. The jump in missile spending is a budget request that Congress has not yet funded.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
In April management said data center and networking had about ten major customers with only one above 10%, so the second large customer is new this year (S05).
Penang's headwind came in at about 180 basis points against 160 guided, so the ramp has run behind plan (S06).
The share figure is an offering's commissioned estimate, not an audited one (S15).
Second-half cash flow from the N+M ramp could pay down part of it before the quarter closes (C10).
A request is not an appropriation, and FY2026 munitions spending for the three services was $24.4B, a third of the request (S16).
What we still do not know
- Who the two customers buying 26% of sales are; the Q3 10-Q is due to show their share.
- Whether the third N+M programme, moved later, is at full volume in the first quarter and N+M reaches half of data center sales.
- What Epiq earns and how fast it grows; TTM has published only the price against a profit forecast.
- How much AI board work could move out of China if tariffs or export rules tighten.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
In April management said data center and networking had about ten major customers with only one above 10%, so the second large customer is new this year (S05).
- Asked directly whether N+M had been about $200M in September and would be about $400M in December, as stated in August, the chief executive said 'probably not' exactly and then said 'slightly more than 200 and slightly below 400', which his own 30% share does not reproduce (C60).
- Programme timing at customers is the reason given for the shortfall, and the customers are the two buyers who were 26% of June sales, so a slip at one of them moves the whole quarter; the third programme is not yet in volume production (S25).
No Epiq revenue, GAAP profit or historical statements have been filed, so the multiple rests on management's 2027 forecast (S08, S09).
Penang's headwind came in at about 180 basis points against 160 guided, so the ramp has run behind plan (S06).
- TTM's sales include RF parts, radar and communications systems, so its share of boards alone is smaller than this (S01).
- Victory Giant claims 13.8% of AI and high-performance computing boards, the slice TTM's growth comes from, so a whole-market share understates how contested that slice is (S15).
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveThe new boards reach volume and the customer share is confirmed, at a price that allows slower growth
It needs:
- ○The Q3 10-Q shows the two largest customers at or under 30% of sales, and December shows N+M boards at about $300M or more.watched as it happens
- Neutral→UnattractiveGrowth slows, or the price outruns it
It needs any of:
- ○TTM's next quarterly forecast implies sales growth below 25% on a year earlier.checked at the next results, due by 6 Nov
- ○The shares rise until the company is valued at 40 times operating profit, which would need about 28% yearly growth.about ≈$154.19 today, 17% above the last close
We would also be wrong if
- Management forecasts 2027 sales growth below 15%.
- The two largest customers pass 35% of sales, or either cuts orders on the next board generation.
- Debt stays above 2.5 times yearly profit a year after the Epiq purchase.
What is coming
- 6 November 2026 Q3 2026 10-Q: Whether the two largest customers' share stopped rising; the call already put N+M near 30% of data center sales.
Every dated event ahead
- 6 November 2026 Q3 2026 10-Q: Whether the two largest customers' share stopped rising; the call already put N+M near 30% of data center sales.
- December 2026 STG and ILFA acquisitions close: The 10-Q expected both in the third quarter and no closing was filed by 4 October; closing sets net debt near the $2.0B estimate, a slip says regulators balked.
- February 2027 December-quarter 2026 report: Whether N+M boards reach about $300M or more against the $210M the call's share implies, and whether the third programme is in full production.
- February 2027 Q4 2026 results and the 2027 outlook: Whether 2027 is guided inside the 15% to 20% target or near the analyst's extra $1B of N+M, and Epiq's first full quarter.
- March 2027 2027 proxy statement: Roks's first full pay year, his holdings, and whether the plan adds a per-share or return measure after a debt-funded acquisition year.
Since we wrote this
- 22 OctEarningsRecord quarter, boards behind plan; view heldSales beat the guide and the price needs 12% yearly growth, but the call put the new boards at about $150M against $200M planned and the customers' share is still unpublished.
- 19 OctNewsTTM agrees to buy MKS's infrared optics business for $650M cash. View heldTTM agrees to buy MKS's Ophir Optics business for about $650M in cash.
- 15 OctNewsTTM adds $400M to its capacity plan for AI boards, on top of $1.2B. View heldTTM announces $400M more capacity spending in China and Malaysia.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
- 4 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten two months after the Q2 2026 print and days after the Epiq purchase closed, with the shares 41% below their June high.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
Also checked 2 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 25
Sources - 25
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-02-17Item 1 products, layer counts, competition and named rivals, ITAR and Munitions List risk, customers, EMS share, non-US sales, employees, patents, Syracuse, DIBC grantbacksC01C02C03C04C08C09C21C40C46C47C53C54
- S02primarycompany filing2026-08-05segments, end markets, two customers at 26%, top ten at 55%, RPO, debt, cash, shares, stock pay, STG and ILFA, cash flowbacksC05C06C09C15C16C17C19C27C29C30C32C54
- S03primarycompany release2026-08-05Q2 statements, non-GAAP reconciliation, end markets, book-to-bill, backlog, free cash flow, Q3 guidebacksC06C07C10C14C15C17C19
- S04primarytranscript2026-08-05Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)data/cache/transcripts/TTMI-2026Q2.json (FMP earning-call-transcript, label 2026Q2, call held 2026-08-05)2026 guide, N+M $600M and its timing, A&D backlog and pipeline, capex, STG and ILFA, 2027-28 target; questions from analysts including Needham and Wells Fargo
we now expect full year 2026 sales of approximately $4.4 billion
backsC07C10C11C12C13C18C20C22C30C47C60 - S05primarytranscript2026-04-29Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)data/cache/transcripts/TTMI-2026Q1.json (FMP earning-call-transcript, label 2026Q1, call held 2026-04-29)guide of at least $4B, capex raise, Penang breakeven, about ten major data center customers
we are in a breakeven situation for Penang
backsC13C18C22C23 - S06primarytranscript2026-02-04Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP)data/cache/transcripts/TTMI-2025Q4.json (FMP earning-call-transcript, label 2025Q4, call held 2026-02-04)visibility, AI boards at Dongguan and Guangzhou, 78-layer boards, Penang headwind of 180 basis points
But on the running business, it is about six to nine months.
backsC02C22C23 - S07primarycompany release2026-02-042025 results, the 2026 guide of 15% to 20% growth, capex planbacksC08C13C18
- S08primarycompany release2026-08-17price, multiple, synergies, accretion timing, leverage at closebacksC24C25
- S09primarycompany release2026-08-17N+M $600M, $1.2B data center capacity commitment, US A&D investment, deleveraging pathbacksC11C18C25
- S10primarycompany release2026-09-30closing on 30 September and its funding from term loans A and B and the 2034 notesbacksC24C26
- S11primarycompany filing2026-09-24$500M of 6.750% notes due 1 October 2034backsC26
- S12secondaryvendor data2026-10-04Research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, daily closes, SEC XBRL statements)price, decomposition, consensus, ratings, earnings history, short interest, insider base rate, quarterly statementsbacksC14C31C34C35C36C37
- S13secondaryindustry data2026-01-26I-Connect007, 'AI Reshapes the Industry Landscape: Global PCB Output to $105.2 Billion in 2026' (TPCA and ITRI) Taiwan Printed Circuit Association (TPCA)global PCB output for 2025 and 2026
Global PCB output value is projected to reach US$92.36 billion in 2025, representing a robust year-on-year growth of 15.4%.
backsC38 - S14secondaryindustry data2025-04I-Connect007, 'Global PCB Market Is Expected to Grow by 5.5% in 2025' (TPCA) Taiwan Printed Circuit Association (TPCA)2024 global PCB output
the global PCB output value will grow by about 7.6% in 2024 to reach US$80.9 billion
backsC39 - S15primarycompany release2026-04-13ACN Newswire, Victory Giant Technology Hong Kong IPO release Victory Giant Technology (Huizhou) Co., Ltd.the largest rival's revenue, profit and AI board share, and Frost & Sullivan's 2029 board forecasts
total revenue reached RMB19.3 billion, up 79.8% year-on-year
backsC40C49 - S16secondarynews2026-04-13FY2025 and FY2026 munitions spending against the FY2027 request
the munitions figures for the three services combined were just under $20 billion in FY25 and $24.4 billion in FY26
backsC42 - S17secondaryother2026-05FY2027 munitions and critical munitions request
The Pentagon's budget request for fiscal 2027 increases funding for missile procurement by 188 percent.
backsC42 - S18primaryindustry data2026-03-17Dell'Oro Group, 'Data Center Capex Surges 57 Percent in 2025 as AI Deployments Accelerate' Dell'Oro Groupdata center capital spending growth in 2025
worldwide data center capital expenditures increased 57 percent in 2025
backsC43 - S19primaryindustry data2026-09-16the newest capital spending rate
Data Center Capex Grew 92 Percent in 2Q 2026, Driven by Surging AI Demand and Memory Costs
backsC43 - S20primarycompany filing2026-10-04insider purchases in August and the 10b5-1 flag on salesbacksC36
- S21primaryregulator2026-09-0122 CFR 121.1, The United States Munitions List, Category XI (eCFR) U.S. Department of State, Directorate of Defense Trade Controlsdefense boards are controlled defense articles
Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs) and populated circuit card assemblies for which the layout is specially designed for defense articles in this subchapter
backsC04C48 - S22primarycompany filing2026-03-19directors and executive officers, beneficial ownership table, the CD&A: bonus metrics and weights, 2025 payout, PRU designbacksC50C51C52
- S23primarycompany release2026-10-22Q3 statements, segments, non-GAAP reconciliation, book-to-bill, A&D backlog, leverage, December-quarter, 2026 and first 2027 guidance, Ophir and Merlin dealsbacksC10C11C32C55C56C57C58C60
- S24tertiaryvendor data2026-10-21the 21 October 2026 close of $102.15backsC31C32
- S25primarytranscript2026-10-22management's prepared remarks on end-market mix, A&D bookings and backlog, the extra $400 million capacity plan, Ophir Optics and the December-quarter and 2027 guidance; and five analysts' questions, which produced N+M's share of data center sales, the delayed third programme, the margin on N+M, the acquired part of 2027 and the leverage plan. The vendor text garbles some words and one N+M dollar answer contradicts its own percentages
currently about 30% of the data center and networking activities, and it will grow next year to about 50% of that group
backsC11C59C60C61C62C63