TTM Technologies (TTMI)

השורה התחתונה

הציון שלנו ל TTM Technologies: ניטרלית. החברה מייצרת לוחות מעגלים רב-שכבתיים שנמצאים בתוך שרתי AI, וכן לוחות ומכ״מים לביטחון האמריקאי שכללי הייצוא משאירים במפעלים אמריקאים, ולכן העסק טוב. המכירות בספטמבר עקפו את התחזית, והמחיר דורש עכשיו צמיחה של כ-12% בשנה עד 2029 בלבד, ולכן הוא הוגן. אנחנו נשארים ניטרליים כי בשיחה נאמר שהלוחות החדשים מפגרים אחרי התוכנית, והנתח של שני הלקוחות הגדולים עדיין לא פורסם.

הטיעון לטווח הארוךשרתי AI דורשים לוחות עם יותר שכבות, ותקציבי הביטחון מעדיפים טילים ומכ״ם. כדי שהטיעון יתממש, TTM צריכה לספק את הלוחות החדשים בזמן, ולא רק לשני לקוחות.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 8 טענות

C01עובדהhigh confidence

TTM makes printed circuit boards to customers' circuit designs, from conventional high-layer boards to HDI, substrate-like boards and IC substrates, plus RF components, multi-chip modules, beamformers and defense systems such as radar, identification-friend-or-foe and communications; it ran 24 facilities in North America and Asia and served about 1,300 customers in 2025.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary

current state · 2025-12-29written 2026-10-04

C04עובדהhigh confidence

Its defense work needs facility security clearances under NISPOM and ITAR, and the 10-K warns that loosening the U.S. Munitions List would expose it to overseas manufacturers that import and export laws now restrict.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary 22 CFR 121.1, The United States Munitions List, Category XI…primary

against this

The wall keeps out foreign plants, not US rivals: Sanmina, Mercury and Curtiss-Wright compete inside it (S01).

current state · 2025-12-29written 2026-10-04

C55עובדהhigh confidence

September-quarter 2026 net sales were $1,203.9M, up 60% on a year and above the $1.10B to $1.14B guide: A&D $416.5M, up 21%, and Commercial $787.9M, up 93%. GAAP gross profit was $291.9M (24.2% of sales, against 21.1% in June), GAAP operating income $162.3M (13.5%), adjusted EBITDA $242.3M (20.1%) and non-GAAP EPS $1.46 against $0.67 a year earlier and $1.21 to $1.27 guided; GAAP EPS was $0.79 after a 40% tax rate.

sourceQ3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

against this

GAAP EPS of $0.79 is 46% below non-GAAP $1.46: stock pay ($24.1M, double a year earlier), acquisition costs and derivative losses are added back, and the tax charge was 40% of pre-tax income (S23).

historical · quarter ended 28 September 2026written 2026-10-22

C33אומדןmedium confidence

That price needs about $747M of 2029 operating income, about $6.2B of sales at a 12% margin, or about 12% growth a year from 2026's $4.48B, below management's 15% to 20% target and below the 2027 forecast of $6.5B to $6.75B.

derived$11.23B (C32) carried three years at 10% and divided by 20, set against 2026 guidance (C57), management's target (C12) and consensus (C34)

against this

The 2027 forecast includes the acquired businesses and the company value above leaves out their debt, so the comparison flatters the price; Epiq and STG add about $1.5B of value (C24, C30, C57).

2026-10-22editedre-struck at the 21 October close and the new trailing operating income; the 2026 base is now the raised guide

forwardwritten 2026-10-04

C09עובדהhigh confidence

Two customers were about 26% of net sales in the June quarter and first half of 2026, against one customer at about 12% a year earlier; in 2025 two customers were 23%, the five largest OEMs 44% and EMS companies 30%, and the ten largest customers were 55% in the June quarter.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 29, 2026primary TTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary

against this

In April management said data center and networking had about ten major customers with only one above 10%, so the second large customer is new this year (S05).

current state · 2026-06-29written 2026-10-04

C11טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management said its new N+M asymmetric boards, which carry signal and power layers at different thicknesses, would add about $600M of sales in the second half of 2026, a third in the September quarter and two thirds in December, with yields better than planned; data center and networking was to be 49% of September-quarter sales.

sourceQ2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary Epiq Solutions investor presentation (8-K Exhibit 99.2)primary Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript, held 22 October…primary

against this

Only tens of millions had shipped by August, so most of the $600M is still a production ramp, not a delivery record (S04).
No buyer is named, and two customers became 26% of sales in the same half (S02).
Data center and networking was 41% of September-quarter sales, not the planned 49%, and the release does not give N+M sales, so the third of $600M due in the quarter is unconfirmed (S23).
The call put N+M at about 30% of data center sales in September and December, about $150M and $210M against the $200M and $400M above, with one of three programmes moving to the right on the customer's schedule (C59, C60).

2026-10-22editedthe September data center mix came in under the 49% plan and N+M sales were not disclosed
2026-10-22editedthe earnings call gave N+M's share of data center sales; the plan wording stands as what management said in August

forwardwritten 2026-10-04

C58עובדהmedium confidence

Net leverage was 2.8 times pro-forma adjusted trailing EBITDA at 30 September 2026, the day Epiq closed, against the 2.3 times management estimated at close; the chief executive said leverage should be within the 1.5 to 2.0 times target by the time the $650M Ophir Optics purchase closes.

sourceQ3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

against this

Ophir Optics adds $650M of cash spending funded partly from the revolver, so reaching the target depends on cash flow and the pro-forma EBITDA base, neither shown in the release (S23).
On the call management said no equity or capital markets raise is planned and expects under 2 times at the Ophir close in the second quarter of 2027, with the $400M N+M plan funded from operating cash (C62).

2026-10-22editedthe earnings call restated the leverage plan and the capital plan

current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-22

C59טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

On the third-quarter call the chief executive said N+M boards were about 30% of data center and networking sales in the September quarter and would be about the same share in December, rising to about half of that end market in 2027; that two of three major N+M programmes are going well and the third moved 'to the right' on the customer's schedule, to ramp in the second half of the fourth quarter and be in full production in the first quarter; that yields are where they should be; and that data center sales fell short of the prior guide on programme timing, not supply or yield.

sourceThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcript, held 22 October…primary

against this

Asked directly whether N+M had been about $200M in September and would be about $400M in December, as stated in August, the chief executive said 'probably not' exactly and then said 'slightly more than 200 and slightly below 400', which his own 30% share does not reproduce (C60).
Programme timing at customers is the reason given for the shortfall, and the customers are the two buyers who were 26% of June sales, so a slip at one of them moves the whole quarter; the third programme is not yet in volume production (S25).

forwardwritten 2026-10-22

01

החברה

כל מערכת אלקטרונית יושבת על לוח מעגלים: שכבות דקות של נחושת ויריעות סיבי זכוכית, שנלחצות יחד ונקדחות כדי שאותות יוכלו לעבור בין השכבות. בלוח של שרת AI יכולות להיות יותר מ-70 שכבות, ו-TTM בונה לוח עם 78.

TTM מייצרת לוחות לפי התכנון של לקוחותיה. החטיבה המסחרית מוכרת ליצרניות של שרתי AI, ציוד תקשורת, מכשור רפואי ורכבים. החטיבה הביטחונית מוכרת לקבלניות ביטחוניות ולממשלות לוחות, רכיבי רדיו ומכ״ם. כללי הייצוא האמריקאיים מרחיקים עבודה כזו ממפעלים זרים.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות

C01עובדהhigh confidence

TTM makes printed circuit boards to customers' circuit designs, from conventional high-layer boards to HDI, substrate-like boards and IC substrates, plus RF components, multi-chip modules, beamformers and defense systems such as radar, identification-friend-or-foe and communications; it ran 24 facilities in North America and Asia and served about 1,300 customers in 2025.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary

current state · 2025-12-29written 2026-10-04

C02עובדהhigh confidence

It regularly builds boards with more than 30 layers on quick-turn and volume lines and complex boards above 70 layers, with microvias under 0.15 mm; management said one AI board it is building has 78 layers and customers now ask for designs above 100.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary

current state · 2026-02-04written 2026-10-04

C05עובדהhigh confidence

Since the March 2026 quarter it reports two segments: A&D, holding boards, assemblies, microelectronics, RF parts and mission systems after RF&S Components was folded in, and Commercial, holding boards built to customer designs for automotive, data center and networking, and medical, industrial and instrumentation customers.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 29, 2026primary

current state · 2026-06-29written 2026-10-04

C46עובדהhigh confidence

Its defense systems include identification-friend-or-foe and secondary surveillance radars it calls used by all branches, and vehicle intercommunication systems, sold mostly to tier-one contractors and directly to governments.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary

current state · 2025-12-29written 2026-10-04

C48עובדהhigh confidence

The U.S. Munitions List controls as defense articles printed circuit boards and populated circuit card assemblies whose layout is specially designed for defense articles.

source22 CFR 121.1, The United States Munitions List, Category XI…primary

current state · 2026-09-01written 2026-10-04

C03עובדהhigh confidence

The 10-K says its PCB competitors are mostly based in China and Taiwan in a highly fragmented industry, that buyers choose on technical capability, capacity, price, service, quality and location, and that its manufacturing process technology is generally not subject to significant proprietary protection.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary

against this

It holds about 185 patents with 84 pending and says its fabrication techniques and proprietary board structures matter, so some process knowledge is protected (S01).

current state · 2025-12-29written 2026-10-04

ממה היא מרוויחה

TTM מקבלת תשלום על כל לוח או מערכת שנמסרים, לפי הזמנות רכש. ברבעון השני של 2026 החטיבה המסחרית הכניסה 621.6 מיליון דולר והחטיבה הביטחונית 382.8 מיליון.

מכל דולר מכירות נשארים כ-21 סנט אחרי עלות ייצור הלוחות וכ-11 סנט אחרי כל ההוצאות התפעוליות. החטיבה המסחרית מרוויחה היום על כל דולר קצת יותר מהחטיבה הביטחונית, ולכן לוחות ה-AI חשובים כל כך לרווח.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות

C06עובדהhigh confidence

June-quarter 2026 net sales were $1,004.1M, up 37% on a year: A&D $382.8M, up 14%, and Commercial $621.6M, up 57%.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 29, 2026primary Q2 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04

C07עובדהhigh confidence

By end market, June-quarter sales were data center and networking $405.3M (40%, up 91%), aerospace and defense $371.2M (37%, up 14%), medical, industrial and instrumentation $148.1M (15%, up 33%) and automotive $79.5M (8%, down slightly).

sourceQ2 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04

C15עובדהhigh confidence

In the June quarter GAAP gross margin was 21.1%, GAAP operating income $109.1M (10.9% of sales, 13.8% non-GAAP), adjusted EBITDA $166.8M (16.6%), and diluted EPS $0.77 GAAP against $0.99 non-GAAP.

sourceQ2 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary TTM Technologies Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 29, 2026primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04

C16עובדהhigh confidence

Segment operating income in the June quarter was $112.7M for Commercial, an 18.1% margin, and $63.9M for A&D, 16.7%.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 29, 2026primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04

C09עובדהhigh confidence

Two customers were about 26% of net sales in the June quarter and first half of 2026, against one customer at about 12% a year earlier; in 2025 two customers were 23%, the five largest OEMs 44% and EMS companies 30%, and the ten largest customers were 55% in the June quarter.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 29, 2026primary TTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary

against this

In April management said data center and networking had about ten major customers with only one above 10%, so the second large customer is new this year (S05).

current state · 2026-06-29written 2026-10-04

פירוט מקורות ההכנסה

מקור	משקל במכירות (הרבעון השני של 2026)	איך
מרכזי נתונים ותקשורת	40%	לוחות רבי-שכבות ולוחות N+M, שנבנים לפי התכנון של לקוחות בתחום שרתי ה-AI, המתגים והתקשורת, ונמכרים בהזמנות רכש.
תעופה וביטחון	37%	לוחות, מכלולים, רכיבי RF ומערכות מכ״ם ואינטרקום שכפופים לבקרת ייצוא, הנמכרים לקבלניות ראשיות ולממשלת ארה״ב.
רפואה, תעשייה ומכשור	15%	לוחות למכשור רפואי, לציוד תעשייתי ולמכשירי בדיקה, שנמכרים ליצרניהם ולחברות הרכבה בקבלנות.
רכב	8%	לוחות לאלקטרוניקה של רכב, בעיקר למערכות סיוע לנהג ולמודולים של מערכת ההנעה, שנמכרים לספקים ולחברות הרכבה בקבלנות.

ההנהלה

אדווין רוקס, שניהל את החטיבה הגדולה ביותר ביצרנית המכשור Teledyne, נכנס לתפקיד המנכ״ל בספטמבר 2025; דן בוהל, שהיה בעבר סמנכ״ל הכספים ביצרנית מנועי הרקטות Aerojet Rocketdyne, מכהן כסמנכ״ל הכספים מאז 2023. בעלי העניין מחזיקים רק כ-1% מהחברה, ורוקס לא החזיק בה דבר עד שקנה מניות אחרי הצניחה בקיץ. הבונוס השנתי שלהם נקבע בעיקר לפי הרווח התפעולי והתזרים, והמניות שהם מקבלים לפי המכירות, מדד רווח רחב ומחיר המניה מול המתחרות. אף אחד מהמדדים אינו רווח למניה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C50עובדהhigh confidence

Edwin Roks has been president, chief executive and a director since 2 September 2025, after running Teledyne's digital imaging segment, its largest; Daniel Boehle has been chief financial officer since September 2023, after three years as Aerojet Rocketdyne's.

sourceTTM Technologies DEF 14A proxy statement for the 2026 annual…primary

current state · 2026-03-19written 2026-10-04

C51עובדהhigh confidence

Directors, nominees and executive officers as a group owned 1,318,777 shares, 1.3%, at 11 March 2026; the former chief executive Thomas Edman held 773,541, the most, and Roks none; BlackRock held 14.8%, Vanguard 13.0% and Dimensional 5.6%.

sourceTTM Technologies DEF 14A proxy statement for the 2026 annual…primary

against this

Roks bought 10,000 shares in the open market on 25 August 2026, after the table was struck (C36, S20).

current state · 2026-03-11written 2026-10-04

C52עובדהhigh confidence

The 2025 bonus paid 90% on financial goals, 70% global operating income and 20% operating cash flow as a share of revenue for the chief executive, and 10% on individual goals; it paid 183% of target. Performance units pay over three years, 40% on annual revenue, 40% on adjusted EBITDA and 20% on relative shareholder return.

sourceTTM Technologies DEF 14A proxy statement for the 2026 annual…primary

against this

No metric pays on earnings per share or return on capital, and revenue and adjusted EBITDA both rise with an acquisition such as Epiq whatever it does to EPS (C25).

historical · 2025 pay yearwritten 2026-10-04

C36עובדהhigh confidence

The chief executive bought 10,000 shares at $111.77 on 25 August 2026 and a director 5,000 at $104.90 on 24 August; of 255 open-market sales in the year, 245 were under Rule 10b5-1 plans.

sourceForm 4 filings, November 2025 to September 2026, read by…primary Research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, daily…secondary

historical · November 2025 to September 2026written 2026-10-04

02

היתרון התחרותי, ומי מאיים עליו

למה הלקוחות נשארים

לקוחות הביטחון נשארים כי אין להם ברירה. לוחות שמתוכננים לנשק ולמערכות צבאיות כפופים לכללי הייצוא האמריקאיים, ולכן הם חייבים להיות מיוצרים במפעלים אמריקאיים בעלי אישור ביטחוני. זה מה שמחזיק צבר הזמנות ביטחוניות של 1.7 מיליארד דולר שעדיין לא סופקו.

לקוחות ה-AI נשארים מסיבה אחרת: TTM מסוגלת לייצר בהיקף גדול את הלוח הבא והקשה יותר, בדיוק כשהם צריכים אותו. הדוח השנתי של TTM עצמה מודה ששיטות הייצור שלה אינן מוגנות בפטנטים, ולכן בכל דור חדש של לוחות צריך לבסס את היתרון הזה מחדש.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות

C04עובדהhigh confidence

Its defense work needs facility security clearances under NISPOM and ITAR, and the 10-K warns that loosening the U.S. Munitions List would expose it to overseas manufacturers that import and export laws now restrict.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary 22 CFR 121.1, The United States Munitions List, Category XI…primary

against this

The wall keeps out foreign plants, not US rivals: Sanmina, Mercury and Curtiss-Wright compete inside it (S01).

current state · 2025-12-29written 2026-10-04

C48עובדהhigh confidence

The U.S. Munitions List controls as defense articles printed circuit boards and populated circuit card assemblies whose layout is specially designed for defense articles.

source22 CFR 121.1, The United States Munitions List, Category XI…primary

current state · 2026-09-01written 2026-10-04

C03עובדהhigh confidence

The 10-K says its PCB competitors are mostly based in China and Taiwan in a highly fragmented industry, that buyers choose on technical capability, capacity, price, service, quality and location, and that its manufacturing process technology is generally not subject to significant proprietary protection.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary

against this

It holds about 185 patents with 84 pending and says its fabrication techniques and proprietary board structures matter, so some process knowledge is protected (S01).

current state · 2025-12-29written 2026-10-04

C45הסקהmedium confidence

On the commercial side the advantage is winning each new board generation on capacity and yield, not keeping customers locked in, so share can move at every generation and to whoever adds capacity first.

derivedthe 10-K's competitive factors and its admission that process technology is not protected (C03), the second large customer arriving within one quarter (C09, C23), and a rival growing faster on the same boards (C40)

against this

Yields on N+M ran better than planned and two customers concentrated on TTM, which fits a lead built on process know-how (C11, C09).

current state · 2026-06-29written 2026-10-04

C20טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management said A&D program backlog was $1.7B against $1.5B a year earlier, more than $7B of qualified proposals sat in its pipeline, it booked Golden Dome, munitions and APS-153 radar work, and A&D sales would grow low to mid teens in 2026.

sourceQ2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary

against this

The FY2027 munitions figures are a budget request, not money appropriated (S17).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04

C40עובדהmedium confidence

Victory Giant, named in TTM's 10-K as a competitor, reported 2025 revenue of RMB 19.3B, up 79.8%, and net profit of RMB 4.31B, up 273.5%, and its Hong Kong offering cites a 13.8% global share of AI and high-performance computing boards in the first half of 2025, ranking first.

sourceACN Newswire, Victory Giant Technology Hong Kong IPO releaseprimary TTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary

against this

The share figure is an offering's commissioned estimate, not an audited one (S15).

historical · 2025written 2026-10-04

האיום

הסכנה נמצאת בסין. Victory Giant, שאותה TTM מציינת כמתחרה, הגדילה את המכירות ב-79.8% ב-2025, משאירה לעצמה כ-22 סנט רווח מכל דולר לעומת כ-8 אצל TTM, וטוענת לנתח הגדול ביותר בלוחות לשרתי AI. יצרניות בטייוואן ובקוריאה רודפות אחרי אותן הזמנות. בלוחות מסחריים המחיר נקבע בידי מתחרות זולות מ-TTM.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות

C40עובדהmedium confidence

Victory Giant, named in TTM's 10-K as a competitor, reported 2025 revenue of RMB 19.3B, up 79.8%, and net profit of RMB 4.31B, up 273.5%, and its Hong Kong offering cites a 13.8% global share of AI and high-performance computing boards in the first half of 2025, ranking first.

sourceACN Newswire, Victory Giant Technology Hong Kong IPO releaseprimary TTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary

against this

The share figure is an offering's commissioned estimate, not an audited one (S15).

historical · 2025written 2026-10-04

C41הסקהmedium confidence

The price-setter in AI boards is a Chinese rival keeping about 22 cents of profit per dollar of sales against TTM's roughly 8, so TTM's commercial margin is earned beside, not above, the leader.

derivedVictory Giant's RMB 4.31B profit on RMB 19.3B revenue (C40) against TTM's June-quarter GAAP net income of $83.0M on $1,004.1M (S02, C06), read with the 10-K's account of competition (C03)

against this

Victory Giant's profit includes China tax incentives TTM's US and defense plants do not get, so part of the gap is location rather than pricing power (S15, S01).

current state · 2026-06-29written 2026-10-04

C03עובדהhigh confidence

The 10-K says its PCB competitors are mostly based in China and Taiwan in a highly fragmented industry, that buyers choose on technical capability, capacity, price, service, quality and location, and that its manufacturing process technology is generally not subject to significant proprietary protection.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary

against this

It holds about 185 patents with 84 pending and says its fabrication techniques and proprietary board structures matter, so some process knowledge is protected (S01).

current state · 2025-12-29written 2026-10-04

המתחרות: MRCY, CW, DRS, SANM, ועוד שתיים: פרטיות, פיתוח פנימי של לקוחות או נסחרות בחו״ל.

פירוט המתחרים

סימול	מתחרה	תחומי התחרות	שלב	בסיס להשוואה
	יצרניות סיניות של לוחות רבי-שכבות: Victory Giant,‏ WUS Printed Circuit,‏ Kinwong וגם Founder Technologyבסיס להשוואה: נסחרות בחו״ל	לוחות מעגלים מסחריים	כבר נמכר	נסחרת בחו״ל
	יצרניות מטייוואן, מקוריאה ומאוסטריה: Gold Circuit,‏ Unimicron,‏ Isu Petasys ו-AT&Sבסיס להשוואה: נסחרות בחו״ל	לוחות מעגלים מסחריים	כבר נמכר	נסחרת בחו״ל
MRCY · CW · DRS	יצרניות אלקטרוניקה ביטחונית מארה״ב ומאירופה: Mercury Systems,‏ Curtiss-Wright,‏ Leonardo DRS וגם BAE Systemsבסיס להשוואה: מוצר שונה	לוחות ומערכות לתעופה וביטחון	כבר נמכר	מוצר שונה
SANM	Sanmina, יצרנית אמריקאית בקבלנות עם פעילות בלוחות והרכבה ביטחונייםבסיס להשוואה: מוצר שונה	לוחות ומערכות לתעופה וביטחון	כבר נמכר	מוצר שונה

03

פוטנציאל הצמיחה

גודל ההזדמנות

ב-2025 יוצרו בעולם לוחות מעגלים בכ-92.36 מיליארד דולר, עלייה של 15.4%, ואיגוד ענפי צופה כ-105.2 מיליארד דולר ב-2026, כי שרתי AI דורשים יותר לוחות, ומתקדמים יותר. סך המכירות של TTM הן כ-3.1% מהשוק הזה, כך שגודל השוק אינו המגבלה. המגבלה היא היכולת לזכות בלוחות הקשים ביותר, ב-AI ובביטחון.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C38עובדהmedium confidence

TPCA and ITRI estimate global PCB output at $92.36B in 2025, up 15.4%, and $105.2B in 2026, up 13.9%.

sourceI-Connect007, 'AI Reshapes the Industry Landscape: Global…secondary

against this

Victory Giant's offering cites Frost & Sullivan's split of the same market by board type, which sizes no AI or defense slice (S15).

current state · 2026-01-26written 2026-10-04

C39עובדהmedium confidence

TPCA estimated 2024 global PCB output at $80.9B, up about 7.6%.

sourceI-Connect007, 'Global PCB Market Is Expected to Grow by 5.5%…secondary

historical · 2024written 2026-10-04

C44אומדןmedium confidence

TTM's whole 2025 sales equal about 3.1% of global PCB output, an upper bound on its board share since the figure includes systems.

derived$2,906.3M of 2025 sales (C08) over TPCA's $92.36B (C38)

against this

TTM's sales include RF parts, radar and communications systems, so its share of boards alone is smaller than this (S01).
Victory Giant claims 13.8% of AI and high-performance computing boards, the slice TTM's growth comes from, so a whole-market share understates how contested that slice is (S15).

historical · 2025written 2026-10-04

C08עובדהhigh confidence

Net sales were $2,906.3M in 2025, up 19% on 2024.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary Q4 and full-year 2025 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

historical · fiscal 2025written 2026-10-04

מי כבר התחייב

אף לקוח לא חתם על חוזה ארוך טווח. ל-TTM היו הזמנות של 901 מיליון דולר שמועד אספקתן בתוך שלושה חודשים, וצבר הזמנות ביטחוניות של 1.7 מיליארד דולר, שממשלות עדיין יכולות לבטל. רוב הצמיחה הצפויה לסוף 2026 ול-2027 נשענת על הזמנות שטרם הוגשו.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C19עובדהhigh confidence

Book-to-bill was 1.49 in the June quarter (Commercial 1.63, A&D 1.3), the 90-day backlog $901M against $497M a year earlier, and remaining performance obligations $425.1M, 61% due within twelve months.

sourceQ2 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary TTM Technologies Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 29, 2026primary

against this

Commercial orders can be cancelled, and visibility on running business is six to nine months, so backlog is a forecast with paper behind it (S06).

current state · 2026-06-29written 2026-10-04

C20טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management said A&D program backlog was $1.7B against $1.5B a year earlier, more than $7B of qualified proposals sat in its pipeline, it booked Golden Dome, munitions and APS-153 radar work, and A&D sales would grow low to mid teens in 2026.

sourceQ2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary

against this

The FY2027 munitions figures are a budget request, not money appropriated (S17).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04

מאיפה מגיעה הצמיחה, לפי פעילות

מאיפה מגיעה הצמיחה

פעילות	משקל בהכנסות	צמיחה ברבעון האחרון	בחצי השנה האחרונה	בשנה האחרונה	משקל בעוד 3 שנים, בקצב של חצי השנה האחרונה
לוחות מעגלים מסחריים	58%	+44.3%	+29.2%	+19.2%	67%
לוחות ומערכות לתעופה וביטחון	42%	+14.9%	+15.1%	+14.5%	33%
החברה כולה	100%	+30.4%	+22.6%	+17.0%	100%

לפי הפילוח המדווח עד 30 במרץ 2026: אם כל פעילות תשמור על קצב הצמיחה של חצי השנה האחרונה, החברה תצמח בכ-23% בשנה הבאה וב-24% בשנה השלישית, לעומת 27.6% ב-12 החודשים האחרונים. זה תרחיש ולא תחזית: אף פעילות לא שומרת על הקצב שלה.

איך לקרוא את זה: הפילוח שמופה מגיע רק עד מרץ 2026, לפני הרבעון של יוני שבו המכירות המסחריות צמחו ב-57% ולפני העלייה בייצור של לוחות N+M. לכן בציון הסתמכנו על סך המכירות המדווח ועל תחזית החברה, ולא על הפילוח.

04

התוצאות

המספרים

היא צומחת?מהר

המכירות עלו ב-38% ב-12 החודשים שעד ספטמבר 2026, מהר יותר מ-19% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2025.

היא רווחית?כן

הרווח התפעולי עומד על 11% מהמכירות, לעומת 1.9% בשנה שהסתיימה בינואר 2024.

הצמיחה משתלמת?משתלמת

ההוצאות התפעוליות אוכלות 11 סנט מכל דולר מכירות, בערך כמו בשנה שהסתיימה בינואר 2022 (11 סנט).

התשואה על ההון גבוהה?סבירה

התשואה על ההון המושקע היא 11% בשנה אחרי מס, לעומת 4.2% בשנה שהסתיימה בינואר 2022.

היא מייצרת מזומנים?מעט

החברה הפכה 0.4% מהמכירות למזומן חופשי, 14.8 מיליון דולר ב-12 החודשים האחרונים.

המאזן איתן?חוב כבד

היא חייבת 768 מיליון דולר יותר ממה שיש לה במזומן, בערך 2.3 שנים של המזומנים שהפעילות מייצרת.

בעלי המניות מדוללים?לא

מספר המניות כמעט לא השתנה ב-4.7 שנים, והתשלום במניות עולה 1.9% מהמכירות.

כל המספרים

נתונים מדווחים מתוך דוחות 10-K ו-10-Q של החברה, נקראו ב-28 באוקטובר 2026. שנת הכספים מסתיימת בדצמבר.

	ינואר 2022	ינואר 2023	ינואר 2024	דצמבר 2024	דצמבר 2025	12 חודשים עד ספטמבר 2026
גודל וצמיחה
מכירות	$2.25B	$2.50B	$2.23B	$2.44B	$2.91B	$3.83B
צמיחת המכירות	+6.8%	+11%	−11%	+9.4%	+19%	+38%
רווח
שיעור הרווח הגולמי	17%	18%	19%	20%	21%	22%
שיעור הרווח התפעולי	5.6%	8.4%	1.9%	4.8%	9.1%	11%
שיעור הרווח הנקי	2.4%	3.8%	−0.8%	2.3%	6.1%	7.0%
עלות הצמיחה, לכל דולר מכירות
מחקר ופיתוח	0.8%	1.0%	1.2%	1.3%	1.0%	0.8%
מכירות ושיווק	2.8%	3.0%	3.4%	3.3%	2.9%	2.5%
הנהלה וכלליות	5.6%	6.3%	6.7%	7.0%	6.6%	7.0%
תגמול מבוסס מניות	0.8%	0.8%	1.0%	1.2%	1.4%	1.9%
השקעות הוניות	3.6%	4.1%	7.2%	7.6%	10%	8.4%
מזומנים
תזרים מפעילות שוטפת	$177M	$273M	$187M	$237M	$292M	$336M
תזרים מזומנים חופשי	$94.7M	$170M	$27.0M	$51.2M	−$683K	$14.8M
מאזן
מזומנים והשקעות לזמן קצר	$538M	$403M	$450M	$504M	$501M	$876M
חוב	$928M	$929M	$918M	$918M	$916M	$1.64B
מזומן נטו	−$390M	−$527M	−$468M	−$414M	−$415M	−$768M
תשואות ומניות
תשואה על ההון המושקע	4.2%	4.5%	-	3.2%	8.7%	11%
מספר המניות (בדילול מלא)	108M	104M	103M	104M	105M	108M

עלות הצמיחה

הצמיחה שיפרה את הרווחיות של TTM: ההוצאות התפעוליות עולות לאט יותר מהמכירות, וכל לוח משאיר קצת יותר. אבל כל דולר מכירות נוסף דורש עכשיו הרבה יותר השקעה במפעלים מבעבר, והתגמול במניות עולה, ולכן המזומנים שנשארים מפגרים אחרי הרווח.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות

C54עובדהhigh confidence

Per sales dollar, from 2023 to the year to June 2026, research and development, selling and admin together fell from 11.3 cents to 10.5, gross margin rose from 18.5% to 21.2% and operating margin from 1.9% to 9.9%, while capital spending rose from 7.2 cents to 10.0 and stock pay from 1.0 to 1.8.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary TTM Technologies Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 29, 2026primary

against this

In 2023, when sales fell 11%, operating margin dropped from 8.4% to 1.9% and these running costs rose from 10.3 cents to 11.3, so the leverage runs both ways (S01).

historical · fiscal 2023 to the four quarters to June 2026written 2026-10-04

C17עובדהhigh confidence

Operating cash flow was $96.4M and free cash flow $46.0M in the June quarter, but first-half free cash flow was minus $39.0M after $157.2M of capital spending.

sourceQ2 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary TTM Technologies Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 29, 2026primary

historical · first half of 2026written 2026-10-04

C18טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management raised 2026 capital spending from $240M to $260M in February to $300M to $320M in April and $345M to $365M in August, and has committed $1.2B to data center capacity over 2025 to 2029 and more than $400M to US defense plants through 2029.

sourceQ4 and full-year 2025 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary Epiq Solutions investor presentation (8-K Exhibit 99.2)primary

against this

Management says the AI spending is added equipment in existing Chinese plants, not new factories, which keeps it cheaper per dollar of sales (S06).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04

הדוח האחרון (5 באוגוסט)

הרבעון שהסתיים ביוני 2026, לפי הדוחות.

37%

צמיחת המכירות

לעומת הרבעון המקביל אשתקד

18.7%

צמיחה לעומת הרבעון הקודם

לעומת 9.3% ברבעון שלפני כן

11¢

רווח תפעולי

לכל דולר מכירות

המכירות בספטמבר היו 1,203.9 מיליון דולר, עלייה של 60%, מעל התחזית של 1.10 עד 1.14 מיליארד דולר. שיעור הרווח הגולמי עלה ל-24.2% מ-21.1%, והרווח המתואם למניה היה 1.46 דולר לעומת 1.25 צפוי. ההנהלה צופה 1.42 עד 1.44 מיליארד דולר לדצמבר ו-6.5 עד 6.75 מיליארד דולר ל-2027, כולל העסקאות שנסגרו. החוב עמד על 2.8 פעמים הרווח השנתי, לעומת 2.3 שתוכננו.

בשיחה אמר המנכ״ל שהלוחות החדשים מסוג N+M היוו כ-30% מהמכירות למרכזי נתונים, כלומר קרוב ל-150 מיליון דולר ולא 200 מיליון שתוכננו, כי אחת משלוש תוכניות הלקוחות נדחתה. הוא מצפה שב-2027 כמחצית מהמכירות למרכזי נתונים יגיעו מ-N+M.

מה זה אומר על התזההשיחה עונה על השאלה שנשארה פתוחה: הלוחות החדשים נמכרים, אבל מאחור לעומת התוכנית מאוגוסט, והנתח של הלקוחות עדיין לא פורסם. העקיפה אמיתית; ההוכחה עוד לא מלאה, ולכן הציון נשאר ניטרלית.

הרבעון בפירוט

3.0%Q3 25

2.9%Q4 25

9.3%Q1 26

18.7%Q2 26

צמיחת המכירות לעומת הרבעון הקודם, לפי הדוחות.

רווח למניה $0.99 לעומת $0.89 צפוי; $0.77 לפי הדוחות, והפער הוא הסעיפים שהחברה מנטרלת.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 8 טענות

C55עובדהhigh confidence

September-quarter 2026 net sales were $1,203.9M, up 60% on a year and above the $1.10B to $1.14B guide: A&D $416.5M, up 21%, and Commercial $787.9M, up 93%. GAAP gross profit was $291.9M (24.2% of sales, against 21.1% in June), GAAP operating income $162.3M (13.5%), adjusted EBITDA $242.3M (20.1%) and non-GAAP EPS $1.46 against $0.67 a year earlier and $1.21 to $1.27 guided; GAAP EPS was $0.79 after a 40% tax rate.

sourceQ3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

against this

GAAP EPS of $0.79 is 46% below non-GAAP $1.46: stock pay ($24.1M, double a year earlier), acquisition costs and derivative losses are added back, and the tax charge was 40% of pre-tax income (S23).

historical · quarter ended 28 September 2026written 2026-10-22

C56עובדהhigh confidence

Cash from operations was $154.7M and free cash flow $74.8M in the September quarter ($35.7M for nine months); total book-to-bill was 2.13 against 1.49 in June and A&D program backlog $2.0B against $1.7B. Data center and networking was 41% of sales, up 115% on a year, against the 49% management had planned for the quarter; medical, industrial and instrumentation rose 97% and A&D 21%.

sourceQ3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

against this

The release gives neither the N+M board sales nor the two largest customers' share, and the data center mix came in eight points under the plan in C11, so the sales beat did not come only from the new boards (S23).

historical · quarter ended 28 September 2026written 2026-10-22

C57טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management guided December-quarter 2026 sales of $1.42B to $1.44B and non-GAAP EPS of $1.77 to $1.83, 2026 sales of $4.47B to $4.49B and EPS of $4.97 to $5.03, now including Epiq and Swiss Technology Group, and a first 2027 forecast of $6.5B to $6.75B in sales and $8.10 to $8.90 in EPS that includes closed deals but not ILFA, Merlin or Ophir Optics.

sourceQ3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

against this

The 2027 range is 45% to 51% above 2026, but it includes Epiq and STG for a full year, so the organic part is not stated and cannot be set against the 15% to 20% target (S23).
The chief executive said about $500M of the 2027 forecast is acquired sales, but his list appears to include Ophir Optics, which the release excludes, so the organic rate remains unconfirmed (C61).

2026-10-22editedthe earnings call gave the acquired part of 2027

forwardwritten 2026-10-22

C58עובדהmedium confidence

Net leverage was 2.8 times pro-forma adjusted trailing EBITDA at 30 September 2026, the day Epiq closed, against the 2.3 times management estimated at close; the chief executive said leverage should be within the 1.5 to 2.0 times target by the time the $650M Ophir Optics purchase closes.

sourceQ3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

against this

Ophir Optics adds $650M of cash spending funded partly from the revolver, so reaching the target depends on cash flow and the pro-forma EBITDA base, neither shown in the release (S23).
On the call management said no equity or capital markets raise is planned and expects under 2 times at the Ophir close in the second quarter of 2027, with the $400M N+M plan funded from operating cash (C62).

2026-10-22editedthe earnings call restated the leverage plan and the capital plan

current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-22

C11טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management said its new N+M asymmetric boards, which carry signal and power layers at different thicknesses, would add about $600M of sales in the second half of 2026, a third in the September quarter and two thirds in December, with yields better than planned; data center and networking was to be 49% of September-quarter sales.

sourceQ2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary Epiq Solutions investor presentation (8-K Exhibit 99.2)primary Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript, held 22 October…primary

against this

Only tens of millions had shipped by August, so most of the $600M is still a production ramp, not a delivery record (S04).
No buyer is named, and two customers became 26% of sales in the same half (S02).
Data center and networking was 41% of September-quarter sales, not the planned 49%, and the release does not give N+M sales, so the third of $600M due in the quarter is unconfirmed (S23).
The call put N+M at about 30% of data center sales in September and December, about $150M and $210M against the $200M and $400M above, with one of three programmes moving to the right on the customer's schedule (C59, C60).

2026-10-22editedthe September data center mix came in under the 49% plan and N+M sales were not disclosed
2026-10-22editedthe earnings call gave N+M's share of data center sales; the plan wording stands as what management said in August

forwardwritten 2026-10-04

C09עובדהhigh confidence

Two customers were about 26% of net sales in the June quarter and first half of 2026, against one customer at about 12% a year earlier; in 2025 two customers were 23%, the five largest OEMs 44% and EMS companies 30%, and the ten largest customers were 55% in the June quarter.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 29, 2026primary TTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary

against this

In April management said data center and networking had about ten major customers with only one above 10%, so the second large customer is new this year (S05).

current state · 2026-06-29written 2026-10-04

C59טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

On the third-quarter call the chief executive said N+M boards were about 30% of data center and networking sales in the September quarter and would be about the same share in December, rising to about half of that end market in 2027; that two of three major N+M programmes are going well and the third moved 'to the right' on the customer's schedule, to ramp in the second half of the fourth quarter and be in full production in the first quarter; that yields are where they should be; and that data center sales fell short of the prior guide on programme timing, not supply or yield.

sourceThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcript, held 22 October…primary

against this

Asked directly whether N+M had been about $200M in September and would be about $400M in December, as stated in August, the chief executive said 'probably not' exactly and then said 'slightly more than 200 and slightly below 400', which his own 30% share does not reproduce (C60).
Programme timing at customers is the reason given for the shortfall, and the customers are the two buyers who were 26% of June sales, so a slip at one of them moves the whole quarter; the third programme is not yet in volume production (S25).

forwardwritten 2026-10-22

C60אומדןlow confidence

At the 30% share the chief executive gave, N+M boards were about $150M of September sales (30% of the $494M of data center and networking sales) and would be about $210M in December (30% of the roughly $700M forecast for that end market), against about $200M and about $400M in management's August plan (C11).

sourceThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcript, held 22 October…primary Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary

against this

The chief executive's own spoken figures, slightly above $200M for September and slightly under $400M for December, would make N+M roughly 40% and 55% of data center sales, not 30%; the vendor's transcript may have dropped or garbled a word, and the 10-Q or the December report is the way to settle it.
The December data center forecast of about $700M is itself the company's, struck before the third programme's ramp is proven.

historical · Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 forecastwritten 2026-10-22

לאן הלך הכסף

היא הוציאה בגדול. ההשקעה המתוכננת בציוד ל-2026 עלתה מטווח של 240 עד 260 מיליון דולר לטווח של 345 עד 365 מיליון, ובספטמבר שילמה TTM 1.1 מיליארד דולר על Epiq, שמייצרת מכשירי רדיו להאזנה לאותות אויב ולשיבושם, במימון הלוואות ואג״ח חדשות. לדברי ההנהלה, Epiq מגדילה את הרווח למניה רק מ-2028.

בעלי עניין ברבעון השלישי של 2026: 2 רכישות ו-3 מכירות, לפי דיווחי Form 4 שלהם.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C24עובדהhigh confidence

TTM agreed in August to buy Epiq Solutions, a maker of software-defined radios, RF products and radiation-tolerant space computers for signals intelligence and electronic warfare, for about $1.1B in cash, about 17.4 times expected 2027 adjusted EBITDA after $9M of synergies; it closed on 30 September 2026.

sourceEpiq Solutions acquisition release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Epiq closing release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

against this

No Epiq revenue, GAAP profit or historical statements have been filed, so the multiple rests on management's 2027 forecast (S08, S09).

historical · August to September 2026written 2026-10-04

C26עובדהhigh confidence

It funded Epiq with part of a $300M incremental term loan A, an $800M incremental term loan B, both closed on 30 September, and $500M of 6.750% senior notes due 2034 issued in September.

sourceEpiq closing release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Indenture for 6.750% senior notes due 2034 (8-K Exhibit 4.1)primary

historical · September 2026written 2026-10-04

C18טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management raised 2026 capital spending from $240M to $260M in February to $300M to $320M in April and $345M to $365M in August, and has committed $1.2B to data center capacity over 2025 to 2029 and more than $400M to US defense plants through 2029.

sourceQ4 and full-year 2025 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary Epiq Solutions investor presentation (8-K Exhibit 99.2)primary

against this

Management says the AI spending is added equipment in existing Chinese plants, not new factories, which keeps it cheaper per dollar of sales (S06).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04

C25טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management expects Epiq to add to adjusted EBITDA margin at once but to non-GAAP EPS only during 2028, and estimated net leverage of 2.3 times at close, to be cut over the following 12 to 18 months.

sourceEpiq Solutions acquisition release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Epiq Solutions investor presentation (8-K Exhibit 99.2)primary

against this

First-half free cash flow was negative while capital spending rose, so deleveraging depends on the second-half ramp (S02).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04

05

המחיר, ואיפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

בקצרה. הוגן. המחיר מגלם צמיחה נמוכה מיעד ההנהלה עצמה, אבל הלוחות החדשים שעומדים מאחורי זינוק השנה עדיין לא אושרו.

מחיר המניה

$131.87

שער סגירה, 2 באוקטובר

מכפיל הרווח

57.8

המכפיל המקובל בשש השנים האחרונות: 23.0

מכפיל ה-EBITDA (שווי החברה ביחס לרווח התזרימי)

28.9

המכפיל המקובל בשש השנים האחרונות: 10.1

בין יוני לסוף יולי איבדה המניה יותר ממחצית מערכה יחד עם שאר קבוצת חומרת ה-AI, למרות שבחברה עצמה דבר לא השתנה. היא ירדה שוב אחרי הרכישה של Epiq באוגוסט, כשהמנכ״ל ואחד הדירקטורים קנו מניות.

ב-21 באוקטובר המניה נסגרה ב-102.15 דולר, 22.5% מתחת לשער של 2 באוקטובר. למחרת דיווחה TTM על מכירות שיא ואמרה שהלוחות החדשים מפגרים אחרי התוכנית; דוח ה-10-Q של הרבעון השלישי יראה את הנתח של שני הלקוחות הגדולים.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות

C35עובדהhigh confidence

The shares fell 10.6% on 4 February 2026 after a beat with a 15% to 20% guide, fell 54% from $221.47 on 22 June to $102 on 29 July with no company news while SMH fell 25% and Sanmina 35%, and fell 10.8% on 18 August after the Epiq deal.

sourceResearch pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, daily…secondary

historical · February to August 2026written 2026-10-04

C31עובדהhigh confidence

The shares closed at $102.15 on 21 October 2026, about $10.76B on 105.35M shares and 22.5% below the $131.87 of 2 October, inside a 52-week range of $53.36 to $223.83.

sourceDaily closes to 21 October 2026 (FMP end-of-day prices)tertiary Research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, daily…secondary

2026-10-22editedre-struck at the 21 October close, the session before the September-quarter print

current state · 2026-10-21written 2026-10-04

C36עובדהhigh confidence

The chief executive bought 10,000 shares at $111.77 on 25 August 2026 and a director 5,000 at $104.90 on 24 August; of 255 open-market sales in the year, 245 were under Rule 10b5-1 plans.

sourceForm 4 filings, November 2025 to September 2026, read by…primary Research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, daily…secondary

historical · November 2025 to September 2026written 2026-10-04

C24עובדהhigh confidence

TTM agreed in August to buy Epiq Solutions, a maker of software-defined radios, RF products and radiation-tolerant space computers for signals intelligence and electronic warfare, for about $1.1B in cash, about 17.4 times expected 2027 adjusted EBITDA after $9M of synergies; it closed on 30 September 2026.

sourceEpiq Solutions acquisition release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Epiq closing release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

against this

No Epiq revenue, GAAP profit or historical statements have been filed, so the multiple rests on management's 2027 forecast (S08, S09).

historical · August to September 2026written 2026-10-04

C55עובדהhigh confidence

September-quarter 2026 net sales were $1,203.9M, up 60% on a year and above the $1.10B to $1.14B guide: A&D $416.5M, up 21%, and Commercial $787.9M, up 93%. GAAP gross profit was $291.9M (24.2% of sales, against 21.1% in June), GAAP operating income $162.3M (13.5%), adjusted EBITDA $242.3M (20.1%) and non-GAAP EPS $1.46 against $0.67 a year earlier and $1.21 to $1.27 guided; GAAP EPS was $0.79 after a 40% tax rate.

sourceQ3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

against this

GAAP EPS of $0.79 is 46% below non-GAAP $1.46: stock pay ($24.1M, double a year earlier), acquisition costs and derivative losses are added back, and the tax charge was 40% of pre-tax income (S23).

historical · quarter ended 28 September 2026written 2026-10-22

C59טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

On the third-quarter call the chief executive said N+M boards were about 30% of data center and networking sales in the September quarter and would be about the same share in December, rising to about half of that end market in 2027; that two of three major N+M programmes are going well and the third moved 'to the right' on the customer's schedule, to ramp in the second half of the fourth quarter and be in full production in the first quarter; that yields are where they should be; and that data center sales fell short of the prior guide on programme timing, not supply or yield.

sourceThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcript, held 22 October…primary

against this

Asked directly whether N+M had been about $200M in September and would be about $400M in December, as stated in August, the chief executive said 'probably not' exactly and then said 'slightly more than 200 and slightly below 400', which his own 30% share does not reproduce (C60).
Programme timing at customers is the reason given for the shortfall, and the customers are the two buyers who were 26% of June sales, so a slip at one of them moves the whole quarter; the third programme is not yet in volume production (S25).

forwardwritten 2026-10-22

איך לקרוא את המכפיל

המכפיל הוא כ-26 על הרווח התפעולי של השנה האחרונה, לעומת 43 ב-2 באוקטובר. החישוב לאחור:

העסק, לפני הרכישות החדשות, שווה כ-11.23 מיליארד דולר. אם יצמח ב-10% בשנה, זה כ-14.9 מיליארד דולר ב-2029.
במכפיל של 20 על הרווח, מכפיל מקובל ליצרנית גדולה, זה מחייב רווח תפעולי של כ-747 מיליון דולר.
בשיעור רווח של 12%, מעט מתחת ל-13.5% בספטמבר, זה אומר מכירות של כ-6.2 מיליארד דולר.
כלומר צמיחה של כ-12% בשנה מ-2026, פחות מיעד ההנהלה של 15% עד 20%.

מול ההיסטוריה שלה. הרבה מעל המכפילים ששולמו על החברה בעבר, כי המשקיעים צופים עכשיו ששרתי AI יישארו מנוע של צמיחה מהירה במשך שנים, ולא יחזירו אותה לעסק הלוחות האיטי שהיה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות

C32אומדןmedium confidence

Company value before the deals is about $11.23B, 26.5 times trailing GAAP operating income of $424.5M on trailing sales of $3,828M, with the September quarter now in.

sourceDaily closes to 21 October 2026 (FMP end-of-day prices)tertiary TTM Technologies Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 29, 2026primary Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

against this

Net debt is now about $2.0B after Epiq and STG, so a company value counting them is near $12.8B; the trailing operating income carries almost none of their profit, so the pre-deal frame still leaves out their growth and their debt (C28, C58).

2026-10-22editedthe price fell 22.5% and trailing operating income rose from $334.2M to $424.5M

current state · 2026-10-21written 2026-10-04

C33אומדןmedium confidence

That price needs about $747M of 2029 operating income, about $6.2B of sales at a 12% margin, or about 12% growth a year from 2026's $4.48B, below management's 15% to 20% target and below the 2027 forecast of $6.5B to $6.75B.

derived$11.23B (C32) carried three years at 10% and divided by 20, set against 2026 guidance (C57), management's target (C12) and consensus (C34)

against this

The 2027 forecast includes the acquired businesses and the company value above leaves out their debt, so the comparison flatters the price; Epiq and STG add about $1.5B of value (C24, C30, C57).

2026-10-22editedre-struck at the 21 October close and the new trailing operating income; the 2026 base is now the raised guide

forwardwritten 2026-10-04

C12טענת ההנהלהlow confidence

Management said 15% to 20% organic growth remains its target for 2027 and 2028, and when an analyst suggested about $1B more N+M sales in 2027, the chief executive said it could be in the ballpark.

sourceQ2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary

against this

The ballpark figure was the analyst's, not management's, and management deferred out-year detail to the next quarter (S04).
On the 22 October call the chief executive tied 2027 to about 50% growth, with about $500M of it acquired, and N+M reaching about half of data center sales, which puts the organic rate well above 15% to 20% only if that N+M share arrives (C61).

2026-10-22editedthe earnings call tied 2027 to the N+M share and gave the acquired part

forwardwritten 2026-10-04

C34עובדהmedium confidence

Consensus sales are $4.39B for 2026, $5.53B for 2027 and $6.08B for 2028, from three, three and two analysts, with earnings estimates of $4.84, $6.91 and $7.87 a share; the vendor counts 12 buys and 2 holds, and its dated series shows 100% positive across four analysts all year.

sourceResearch pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, daily…secondary

against this

The snapshot counts 14 analysts and the dated series 4, so the panel size depends on which vendor endpoint is read (S12).

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04

C55עובדהhigh confidence

September-quarter 2026 net sales were $1,203.9M, up 60% on a year and above the $1.10B to $1.14B guide: A&D $416.5M, up 21%, and Commercial $787.9M, up 93%. GAAP gross profit was $291.9M (24.2% of sales, against 21.1% in June), GAAP operating income $162.3M (13.5%), adjusted EBITDA $242.3M (20.1%) and non-GAAP EPS $1.46 against $0.67 a year earlier and $1.21 to $1.27 guided; GAAP EPS was $0.79 after a 40% tax rate.

sourceQ3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

against this

GAAP EPS of $0.79 is 46% below non-GAAP $1.46: stock pay ($24.1M, double a year earlier), acquisition costs and derivative losses are added back, and the tax charge was 40% of pre-tax income (S23).

historical · quarter ended 28 September 2026written 2026-10-22

המכפיל מול המתחרים

אף אחת מהמתחרות שלעיל אינה מוכרת את אותו מוצר לאותם לקוחות כחלק משמעותי מפעילותה. השוואת מחירים דורשת לפחות שתיים, ולכן המחיר נבחן מול ההיסטוריה של החברה עצמה.

איפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

השוק חושב

חברה מנצחת בתחומי ה-AI והביטחון, שהצמיחה המהירה שלה תימשך, כפי שכמעט כל האנליסטים אומרים.

אנחנו חושבים

שנה חזקה שנשענת על לוח חדש אחד ועל מעט לקוחות, בעסק שמתחרים יכולים להעתיק, והמחיר שלה נמוך כעת מיעד ההנהלה עצמה.

ייתכן שהשוק מפספס כמה צרה הקפיצה. שני לקוחות עלו מלקוח אחד עם 12% ל-26% מהמכירות בתוך שנה, ובלוחות מסחריים כל דור חדש מחייב להתחרות על ההזמנות מחדש, מול מתחרות שצומחות מהר יותר.

ראיות שסותרות את ההערכה שלנו: המכירות בספטמבר עקפו את התחזית ב-64 מיליון דולר, התחזית ל-2027 היא 6.5 מיליארד דולר ומעלה, והתחזית הועלתה באפריל, באוגוסט ובאוקטובר. ייתכן אפוא שהצמיחה רחבה יותר ממה שאנחנו חושבים.

מה אומרים האנליסטים

המלצות חיוביות

100%

מתוך 4, 1 באוקטובר

לפני ארבעה חודשים

100%

מתוך 4, 1 ביוני

הראיות (באנגלית) · 8 טענות

C34עובדהmedium confidence

Consensus sales are $4.39B for 2026, $5.53B for 2027 and $6.08B for 2028, from three, three and two analysts, with earnings estimates of $4.84, $6.91 and $7.87 a share; the vendor counts 12 buys and 2 holds, and its dated series shows 100% positive across four analysts all year.

sourceResearch pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, daily…secondary

against this

The snapshot counts 14 analysts and the dated series 4, so the panel size depends on which vendor endpoint is read (S12).

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04

C13עובדהhigh confidence

In February 2026 management guided 15% to 20% growth for the year, raised it to at least $4B in April and to about $4.4B in August.

sourceQ4 and full-year 2025 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary

historical · February to August 2026written 2026-10-04

C09עובדהhigh confidence

Two customers were about 26% of net sales in the June quarter and first half of 2026, against one customer at about 12% a year earlier; in 2025 two customers were 23%, the five largest OEMs 44% and EMS companies 30%, and the ten largest customers were 55% in the June quarter.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 29, 2026primary TTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary

against this

In April management said data center and networking had about ten major customers with only one above 10%, so the second large customer is new this year (S05).

current state · 2026-06-29written 2026-10-04

C11טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management said its new N+M asymmetric boards, which carry signal and power layers at different thicknesses, would add about $600M of sales in the second half of 2026, a third in the September quarter and two thirds in December, with yields better than planned; data center and networking was to be 49% of September-quarter sales.

sourceQ2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary Epiq Solutions investor presentation (8-K Exhibit 99.2)primary Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript, held 22 October…primary

against this

Only tens of millions had shipped by August, so most of the $600M is still a production ramp, not a delivery record (S04).
No buyer is named, and two customers became 26% of sales in the same half (S02).
Data center and networking was 41% of September-quarter sales, not the planned 49%, and the release does not give N+M sales, so the third of $600M due in the quarter is unconfirmed (S23).
The call put N+M at about 30% of data center sales in September and December, about $150M and $210M against the $200M and $400M above, with one of three programmes moving to the right on the customer's schedule (C59, C60).

2026-10-22editedthe September data center mix came in under the 49% plan and N+M sales were not disclosed
2026-10-22editedthe earnings call gave N+M's share of data center sales; the plan wording stands as what management said in August

forwardwritten 2026-10-04

C45הסקהmedium confidence

On the commercial side the advantage is winning each new board generation on capacity and yield, not keeping customers locked in, so share can move at every generation and to whoever adds capacity first.

derivedthe 10-K's competitive factors and its admission that process technology is not protected (C03), the second large customer arriving within one quarter (C09, C23), and a rival growing faster on the same boards (C40)

against this

Yields on N+M ran better than planned and two customers concentrated on TTM, which fits a lead built on process know-how (C11, C09).

current state · 2026-06-29written 2026-10-04

C33אומדןmedium confidence

That price needs about $747M of 2029 operating income, about $6.2B of sales at a 12% margin, or about 12% growth a year from 2026's $4.48B, below management's 15% to 20% target and below the 2027 forecast of $6.5B to $6.75B.

derived$11.23B (C32) carried three years at 10% and divided by 20, set against 2026 guidance (C57), management's target (C12) and consensus (C34)

against this

The 2027 forecast includes the acquired businesses and the company value above leaves out their debt, so the comparison flatters the price; Epiq and STG add about $1.5B of value (C24, C30, C57).

2026-10-22editedre-struck at the 21 October close and the new trailing operating income; the 2026 base is now the raised guide

forwardwritten 2026-10-04

C55עובדהhigh confidence

September-quarter 2026 net sales were $1,203.9M, up 60% on a year and above the $1.10B to $1.14B guide: A&D $416.5M, up 21%, and Commercial $787.9M, up 93%. GAAP gross profit was $291.9M (24.2% of sales, against 21.1% in June), GAAP operating income $162.3M (13.5%), adjusted EBITDA $242.3M (20.1%) and non-GAAP EPS $1.46 against $0.67 a year earlier and $1.21 to $1.27 guided; GAAP EPS was $0.79 after a 40% tax rate.

sourceQ3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

against this

GAAP EPS of $0.79 is 46% below non-GAAP $1.46: stock pay ($24.1M, double a year earlier), acquisition costs and derivative losses are added back, and the tax charge was 40% of pre-tax income (S23).

historical · quarter ended 28 September 2026written 2026-10-22

C57טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management guided December-quarter 2026 sales of $1.42B to $1.44B and non-GAAP EPS of $1.77 to $1.83, 2026 sales of $4.47B to $4.49B and EPS of $4.97 to $5.03, now including Epiq and Swiss Technology Group, and a first 2027 forecast of $6.5B to $6.75B in sales and $8.10 to $8.90 in EPS that includes closed deals but not ILFA, Merlin or Ophir Optics.

sourceQ3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

against this

The 2027 range is 45% to 51% above 2026, but it includes Epiq and STG for a full year, so the organic part is not stated and cannot be set against the 15% to 20% target (S23).
The chief executive said about $500M of the 2027 forecast is acquired sales, but his list appears to include Ophir Optics, which the release excludes, so the organic rate remains unconfirmed (C61).

2026-10-22editedthe earnings call gave the acquired part of 2027

forwardwritten 2026-10-22

06

מה יכול להשתבש, ואיך נדע

הסיכונים

שני לקוחות גדולים. שני קונים ששמם לא פורסם אחראים ל-26% מהמכירות במחצית הראשונה של 2026, ואף אחד מהם לא חייב להמשיך להזמין.
מפעלים בסין. לוחות ה-AI מיוצרים בשני מפעלים בסין, וכמחצית ממכירות 2025 יוצרו מחוץ לארה״ב.
מתחרות זולות. המתחרה הסינית Victory Giant צומחת מהר יותר ומשאירה לעצמה הרבה יותר רווח מכל דולר, על אותם לוחות AI.
עוד חוב. ההלוואות לרכישת Epiq העלו את החוב נטו לכ-2.0 מיליארד דולר, בעוד שהתזרים החופשי במחצית הראשונה היה שלילי.
כסף ביטחוני שטרם אושר בהצבעה. הקפיצה בהוצאות על טילים היא בקשת תקציב שהקונגרס טרם מימן.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 7 טענות

C09עובדהhigh confidence

Two customers were about 26% of net sales in the June quarter and first half of 2026, against one customer at about 12% a year earlier; in 2025 two customers were 23%, the five largest OEMs 44% and EMS companies 30%, and the ten largest customers were 55% in the June quarter.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 29, 2026primary TTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary

against this

In April management said data center and networking had about ten major customers with only one above 10%, so the second large customer is new this year (S05).

current state · 2026-06-29written 2026-10-04

C22טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management said its AI boards are made at Dongguan and Guangzhou in China, that Penang in Malaysia also makes N+M boards, that Penang cost about 180 basis points of gross margin in the December 2025 quarter, and that Penang should break even in the December 2026 quarter or earlier.

sourceQ4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary

against this

Penang's headwind came in at about 180 basis points against 160 guided, so the ramp has run behind plan (S06).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04

C21עובדהhigh confidence

About 50% of 2025 net sales came from non-US operations; of about 18,200 employees, 5,900 were in the US and about 9,900 in China belonged to the state trade-union federation.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary

current state · 2025-12-29written 2026-10-04

C40עובדהmedium confidence

Victory Giant, named in TTM's 10-K as a competitor, reported 2025 revenue of RMB 19.3B, up 79.8%, and net profit of RMB 4.31B, up 273.5%, and its Hong Kong offering cites a 13.8% global share of AI and high-performance computing boards in the first half of 2025, ranking first.

sourceACN Newswire, Victory Giant Technology Hong Kong IPO releaseprimary TTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary

against this

The share figure is an offering's commissioned estimate, not an audited one (S15).

historical · 2025written 2026-10-04

C28אומדןmedium confidence

Net debt is about $2.0B after Epiq and STG, before ILFA, against $465.6M in June.

derivedJune net debt of $465.6M (C27) plus Epiq's $1.1B (C24) and STG's hedged $381.1M (C30), before fees and ILFA, whose price was not disclosed

against this

Second-half cash flow from the N+M ramp could pay down part of it before the quarter closes (C10).

current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-04

C17עובדהhigh confidence

Operating cash flow was $96.4M and free cash flow $46.0M in the June quarter, but first-half free cash flow was minus $39.0M after $157.2M of capital spending.

sourceQ2 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary TTM Technologies Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 29, 2026primary

historical · first half of 2026written 2026-10-04

C42עובדהmedium confidence

The Pentagon's FY2027 request seeks about $70.5B for missiles and munitions, a 188% increase in missile procurement over FY2026, including $52.9B for critical munitions and $17.9B for Golden Dome; Congress has not appropriated it.

sourceBreaking Defense, 'The Pentagon wants a 188 percent bump for…secondary Greenberg Traurig, 'Understanding the President's FY 2027…secondary

against this

A request is not an appropriation, and FY2026 munitions spending for the three services was $24.4B, a third of the request (S16).

current state · 2026-05-31written 2026-10-04

שאלות פתוחות

מי שני הלקוחות שקונים 26% מהמכירות; דוח ה-10-Q של הרבעון השלישי אמור להראות את הנתח שלהם.
האם התוכנית השלישית של N+M, שנדחתה, תגיע לייצור מלא ברבעון הראשון, והאם N+M תגיע למחצית מהמכירות למרכזי נתונים.
כמה Epiq מרוויחה ובאיזה קצב היא צומחת. TTM פרסמה רק את המחיר מול תחזית רווח.
כמה מעבודת לוחות ה-AI עשויה לעבור מסין אם המכסים או כללי הייצוא יוחמרו.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות

C09עובדהhigh confidence

Two customers were about 26% of net sales in the June quarter and first half of 2026, against one customer at about 12% a year earlier; in 2025 two customers were 23%, the five largest OEMs 44% and EMS companies 30%, and the ten largest customers were 55% in the June quarter.

sourceTTM Technologies Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 29, 2026primary TTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29,…primary

against this

In April management said data center and networking had about ten major customers with only one above 10%, so the second large customer is new this year (S05).

current state · 2026-06-29written 2026-10-04

C59טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

On the third-quarter call the chief executive said N+M boards were about 30% of data center and networking sales in the September quarter and would be about the same share in December, rising to about half of that end market in 2027; that two of three major N+M programmes are going well and the third moved 'to the right' on the customer's schedule, to ramp in the second half of the fourth quarter and be in full production in the first quarter; that yields are where they should be; and that data center sales fell short of the prior guide on programme timing, not supply or yield.

sourceThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcript, held 22 October…primary

against this

Asked directly whether N+M had been about $200M in September and would be about $400M in December, as stated in August, the chief executive said 'probably not' exactly and then said 'slightly more than 200 and slightly below 400', which his own 30% share does not reproduce (C60).
Programme timing at customers is the reason given for the shortfall, and the customers are the two buyers who were 26% of June sales, so a slip at one of them moves the whole quarter; the third programme is not yet in volume production (S25).

forwardwritten 2026-10-22

C24עובדהhigh confidence

TTM agreed in August to buy Epiq Solutions, a maker of software-defined radios, RF products and radiation-tolerant space computers for signals intelligence and electronic warfare, for about $1.1B in cash, about 17.4 times expected 2027 adjusted EBITDA after $9M of synergies; it closed on 30 September 2026.

sourceEpiq Solutions acquisition release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Epiq closing release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

against this

No Epiq revenue, GAAP profit or historical statements have been filed, so the multiple rests on management's 2027 forecast (S08, S09).

historical · August to September 2026written 2026-10-04

C22טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management said its AI boards are made at Dongguan and Guangzhou in China, that Penang in Malaysia also makes N+M boards, that Penang cost about 180 basis points of gross margin in the December 2025 quarter, and that Penang should break even in the December 2026 quarter or earlier.

sourceQ4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)primary

against this

Penang's headwind came in at about 180 basis points against 160 guided, so the ramp has run behind plan (S06).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04

C44אומדןmedium confidence

TTM's whole 2025 sales equal about 3.1% of global PCB output, an upper bound on its board share since the figure includes systems.

derived$2,906.3M of 2025 sales (C08) over TPCA's $92.36B (C38)

against this

TTM's sales include RF parts, radar and communications systems, so its share of boards alone is smaller than this (S01).
Victory Giant claims 13.8% of AI and high-performance computing boards, the slice TTM's growth comes from, so a whole-market share understates how contested that slice is (S15).

historical · 2025written 2026-10-04

מה ישנה את ההערכה שלנו

ניטרלית→אטרקטיביתהלוחות החדשים מגיעים להיקף ייצור מלא והנתח של הלקוחות מאושר, במחיר שמאפשר צמיחה איטית יותר
בתנאי ש:
- ○דוח ה-10-Q של הרבעון השלישי מראה ששני הלקוחות הגדולים ביותר מהווים 30% מהמכירות או פחות, ודצמבר מראה לוחות N+M בהיקף של כ-300 מיליון דולר ומעלה.במעקב שוטף
ניטרלית→לא אטרקטיביתהצמיחה מאטה, או שהמחיר מקדים אותה
מספיק אחד מאלה:
- ○התחזית הרבעונית הבאה של TTM משקפת צמיחה של פחות מ-25% במכירות לעומת השנה שעברה.ייבדק בדוחות הבאים, עד 6 בנובמבר
- ○המניה עולה עד ששווי החברה מגיע ל-40 פעמים הרווח התפעולי, מה שידרוש צמיחה של כ-28% בשנה.כ-154.19 דולר ≈ היום, 17% מעל שער הסגירה האחרון

נטעה גם אם

ההנהלה צופה לשנת 2027 צמיחה במכירות של פחות מ-15%.
שני הלקוחות הגדולים עוברים 35% מהמכירות, או שאחד מהם מקצץ בהזמנות של הדור הבא של הלוחות.
החוב נשאר גבוה מפי 2.5 מהרווח השנתי שנה אחרי רכישת Epiq.

מה בהמשך

6 בנובמבר 2026 דוח ה-10-Q של הרבעון השלישי של 2026: האם הנתח של שני הלקוחות הגדולים הפסיק לעלות; בשיחה כבר נאמר ש-N+M קרובה ל-30% מהמכירות למרכזי נתונים.

כל האירועים הצפויים

6 בנובמבר 2026 דוח ה-10-Q של הרבעון השלישי של 2026: האם הנתח של שני הלקוחות הגדולים הפסיק לעלות; בשיחה כבר נאמר ש-N+M קרובה ל-30% מהמכירות למרכזי נתונים.
דצמבר 2026 השלמת הרכישות של STG ו-ILFA: דוח ה-10-Q צפה את שתיהן ברבעון השלישי, ועד 4 באוקטובר לא הוגש דיווח על השלמה. אם הרכישות יושלמו, החוב נטו יעמוד על סביבות האומדן, 2.0 מיליארד דולר; עיכוב יצביע על כך שהרגולטורים נרתעו.
פברואר 2027 דוח רבעון דצמבר 2026: האם לוחות N+M מגיעים לכ-300 מיליון דולר ומעלה, לעומת 210 מיליון דולר שעולים מהנתח שנאמר בשיחה, והאם התוכנית השלישית בייצור מלא.
פברואר 2027 תוצאות הרבעון הרביעי של 2026 והתחזית ל-2027: האם התחזית ל-2027 תהיה בתוך היעד של 15% עד 20%, או קרובה לתוספת של מיליארד דולר ממכירות N+M שהאנליסט צופה, והרבעון המלא הראשון של Epiq.
מרץ 2027 דוח הזימון לאסיפה (proxy) ל-2027: שנת השכר המלאה הראשונה של רוקס, ההחזקות שלו, והאם התוכנית תוסיף מדד של רווח למניה או של תשואה אחרי שנת רכישות במימון חוב.

מה קרה מאז

נכתבה

4 באוקטובר

המחיר בעת כתיבת התזה

$131.87

2 באוקטובר

22 באוקטוברדוחותרבעון שיא, הלוחות מפגרים אחרי התוכנית; ההערכה לא השתנתההמכירות עקפו את התחזית והמחיר דורש צמיחה של 12% בשנה, אבל בשיחה נאמר שהלוחות החדשים עומדים על כ-150 מיליון דולר לעומת 200 מיליון שתוכננו, והנתח של הלקוחות עדיין לא פורסם.
19 באוקטוברחדשותTTM מסכימה לרכוש את עסק האופטיקה האינפרא-אדומה של MKS תמורת 650 מיליון דולר במזומן. ההערכה לא השתנתהTTM מסכימה לרכוש את עסק Ophir Optics של MKS תמורת כ-650 מיליון דולר במזומן.
15 באוקטוברחדשותTTM מוסיפה 400 מיליון דולר לתוכנית הרחבת הקיבולת ללוחות AI, על 1.2 מיליארד דולר שכבר תוכננו. ההערכה לא השתנתהTTM מודיעה על השקעה של עוד 400 מיליון דולר בקיבולת בסין ובמלזיה.
5 באוקטוברבדיקת התזההטיעון בעד ההשקעה מופיע עכשיו מתחת לשורה התחתונהאחרי פיילוט בחמש חברות, הבעלים ביקש להוסיף את הטיעון בעד ההשקעה לכל תזה.
4 באוקטוברהתזה נכתבהניטרלית, ביטחון בינונינכתבה חודשיים אחרי דוח הרבעון השני של 2026 וימים אחרי השלמת רכישת Epiq, כשהמניה נסחרת 41% מתחת לשיא של יוני.
4 באוקטוברבדיקת התזהרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים: מקורות ההכנסה, עלות הצמיחה, ההנהלה, אירועים צפוייםרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים הראתה שהשיטה שותקת בשאלות מי מנהל את החברה, כמה עולה הצמיחה, מאיפה מגיע הכסף ואילו אירועים צפויים בתאריכים ידועים. בסבב הזה מילאנו את ארבעת הנושאים מתוך דוח הזימון לאסיפה והדוחות.

נבדקה גם פעמיים, ללא ממצא חדש שמצריך פעולה.

מקורות 25

Where this came from

Sources - 25

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

S01primarycompany filing2026-02-17
TTM Technologies Form 10-K, fiscal year ended December 29, 2025
Item 1 products, layer counts, competition and named rivals, ITAR and Munitions List risk, customers, EMS share, non-US sales, employees, patents, Syracuse, DIBC grant
backsC01C02C03C04C08C09C21C40C46C47C53C54
S02primarycompany filing2026-08-05
TTM Technologies Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 29, 2026
segments, end markets, two customers at 26%, top ten at 55%, RPO, debt, cash, shares, stock pay, STG and ILFA, cash flow
backsC05C06C09C15C16C17C19C27C29C30C32C54
S03primarycompany release2026-08-05
Q2 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)
Q2 statements, non-GAAP reconciliation, end markets, book-to-bill, backlog, free cash flow, Q3 guide
backsC06C07C10C14C15C17C19
S04primarytranscript2026-08-05
Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)
data/cache/transcripts/TTMI-2026Q2.json (FMP earning-call-transcript, label 2026Q2, call held 2026-08-05)
2026 guide, N+M $600M and its timing, A&D backlog and pipeline, capex, STG and ILFA, 2027-28 target; questions from analysts including Needham and Wells Fargo
we now expect full year 2026 sales of approximately $4.4 billion
backsC07C10C11C12C13C18C20C22C30C47C60
S05primarytranscript2026-04-29
Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)
data/cache/transcripts/TTMI-2026Q1.json (FMP earning-call-transcript, label 2026Q1, call held 2026-04-29)
guide of at least $4B, capex raise, Penang breakeven, about ten major data center customers
we are in a breakeven situation for Penang
backsC13C18C22C23
S06primarytranscript2026-02-04
Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP)
data/cache/transcripts/TTMI-2025Q4.json (FMP earning-call-transcript, label 2025Q4, call held 2026-02-04)
visibility, AI boards at Dongguan and Guangzhou, 78-layer boards, Penang headwind of 180 basis points
But on the running business, it is about six to nine months.
backsC02C22C23
S07primarycompany release2026-02-04
Q4 and full-year 2025 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)
2025 results, the 2026 guide of 15% to 20% growth, capex plan
backsC08C13C18
S08primarycompany release2026-08-17
Epiq Solutions acquisition release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)
price, multiple, synergies, accretion timing, leverage at close
backsC24C25
S09primarycompany release2026-08-17
Epiq Solutions investor presentation (8-K Exhibit 99.2)
N+M $600M, $1.2B data center capacity commitment, US A&D investment, deleveraging path
backsC11C18C25
S10primarycompany release2026-09-30
Epiq closing release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)
closing on 30 September and its funding from term loans A and B and the 2034 notes
backsC24C26
S11primarycompany filing2026-09-24
Indenture for 6.750% senior notes due 2034 (8-K Exhibit 4.1)
$500M of 6.750% notes due 1 October 2034
backsC26
S12secondaryvendor data2026-10-04
Research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, daily closes, SEC XBRL statements)
price, decomposition, consensus, ratings, earnings history, short interest, insider base rate, quarterly statements
backsC14C31C34C35C36C37
S13secondaryindustry data2026-01-26
I-Connect007, 'AI Reshapes the Industry Landscape: Global PCB Output to $105.2 Billion in 2026' (TPCA and ITRI) Taiwan Printed Circuit Association (TPCA)
global PCB output for 2025 and 2026
Global PCB output value is projected to reach US$92.36 billion in 2025, representing a robust year-on-year growth of 15.4%.
backsC38
S14secondaryindustry data2025-04
I-Connect007, 'Global PCB Market Is Expected to Grow by 5.5% in 2025' (TPCA) Taiwan Printed Circuit Association (TPCA)
2024 global PCB output
the global PCB output value will grow by about 7.6% in 2024 to reach US$80.9 billion
backsC39
S15primarycompany release2026-04-13
ACN Newswire, Victory Giant Technology Hong Kong IPO release Victory Giant Technology (Huizhou) Co., Ltd.
the largest rival's revenue, profit and AI board share, and Frost & Sullivan's 2029 board forecasts
total revenue reached RMB19.3 billion, up 79.8% year-on-year
backsC40C49
S16secondarynews2026-04-13
Breaking Defense, 'The Pentagon wants a 188 percent bump for missile procurement. Can industry deliver?'
FY2025 and FY2026 munitions spending against the FY2027 request
the munitions figures for the three services combined were just under $20 billion in FY25 and $24.4 billion in FY26
backsC42
S17secondaryother2026-05
Greenberg Traurig, 'Understanding the President's FY 2027 Budget Request for the Department of War'
FY2027 munitions and critical munitions request
The Pentagon's budget request for fiscal 2027 increases funding for missile procurement by 188 percent.
backsC42
S18primaryindustry data2026-03-17
Dell'Oro Group, 'Data Center Capex Surges 57 Percent in 2025 as AI Deployments Accelerate' Dell'Oro Group
data center capital spending growth in 2025
worldwide data center capital expenditures increased 57 percent in 2025
backsC43
S19primaryindustry data2026-09-16
Dell'Oro Group, 'Data Center Capex Grew 92 Percent in 2Q 2026' Dell'Oro Group
the newest capital spending rate
Data Center Capex Grew 92 Percent in 2Q 2026, Driven by Surging AI Demand and Memory Costs
backsC43
S20primarycompany filing2026-10-04
Form 4 filings, November 2025 to September 2026, read by insider_fetch.py
insider purchases in August and the 10b5-1 flag on sales
backsC36
S21primaryregulator2026-09-01
22 CFR 121.1, The United States Munitions List, Category XI (eCFR) U.S. Department of State, Directorate of Defense Trade Controls
defense boards are controlled defense articles
Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs) and populated circuit card assemblies for which the layout is specially designed for defense articles in this subchapter
backsC04C48
S22primarycompany filing2026-03-19
TTM Technologies DEF 14A proxy statement for the 2026 annual meeting
directors and executive officers, beneficial ownership table, the CD&A: bonus metrics and weights, 2025 payout, PRU design
backsC50C51C52
S23primarycompany release2026-10-22
Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)
Q3 statements, segments, non-GAAP reconciliation, book-to-bill, A&D backlog, leverage, December-quarter, 2026 and first 2027 guidance, Ophir and Merlin deals
backsC10C11C32C55C56C57C58C60
S24tertiaryvendor data2026-10-21
Daily closes to 21 October 2026 (FMP end-of-day prices)
the 21 October 2026 close of $102.15
backsC31C32
S25primarytranscript2026-10-22
Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript, held 22 October 2026
management's prepared remarks on end-market mix, A&D bookings and backlog, the extra $400 million capacity plan, Ophir Optics and the December-quarter and 2027 guidance; and five analysts' questions, which produced N+M's share of data center sales, the delayed third programme, the margin on N+M, the acquired part of 2027 and the leverage plan. The vendor text garbles some words and one N+M dollar answer contradicts its own percentages
currently about 30% of the data center and networking activities, and it will grow next year to about 50% of that group
backsC11C59C60C61C62C63