Sectors

Tuesday 20 October 2026

01AI cloud and data-centre landlordsCompanies renting out AI computing, or the powered buildings it runs in, after October's credit scare. Nebius leads, and Riot if losing less matters most.

Ranked 19 Oct, on the 16 Oct close.

Reviewed sinceIREN21 OctAPLD23 OctSLNH26 Oct

#	Company	Close	Our view	The business	The price	The bet	Balance sheet	Where the view moves	Next report
1	NBISNebius Group	Close$165.4716 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betCheap	Balance sheet$450Mnet debtDec 2025	Where the view movesNo price route	Next report10 Nov
	The strongest balance sheet and the most upside: the October fall moved its bet from Fair to Cheap. The view stays Neutral because the price still assumes the plan works at shortage prices.
2	RIOTRiot Platforms	Close$13.5627 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFair	The betFair	Balance sheet$372Mnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesNo price route	Next report4 Nov
	Two signed leases and the best floor here: if the AI plan fails, mining, the bitcoin and AMD's halls still leave most of today's value.
3	IRENIREN Limited	Close$26.9916 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessWeak	The priceFair	The betFair	Balance sheet$1.70Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report5 Nov
	A fair price and a decent floor, but the weakest business among the leaders, and next year's build is not yet paid for.
4	APLDApplied Digital	Close$22.4413 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFair	The betFair	Balance sheet$44.0Mcash; its debt is not taggedMay 2025	Where the view moves-	Next report6 Jan
	A solid business with signed hyperscaler leases, but notes and a partner's preferred stake rank ahead, so little is left if it fails. Its thesis predates the sell-off.
5	CIFRCipher Mining	Close$14.567 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessWeak	The priceFair	The betFair	Balance sheet$4.80Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report2 Nov
	A big payoff if more sites lease and almost nothing kept if not. This month added new convertibles and new shares.
6	HUTHut 8	Close$67.7516 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$234Mcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report4 Nov
	The best tenants in the group, but the signed rent is already in the price and none of it arrives until next year, so success pays little.
7	KEELKeel Infrastructure	Close$2.4328 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessWeak	The priceFull	The betFair	Balance sheet$669Mdebt; its cash is not taggedDec 2025	Where the view moves-	Next report5 Nov
	No tenant has signed, management has stopped repeating its lease target, and the building costs are unfunded. Rated Unattractive, like the three smaller names below it.
8	BTDRBitdeer Technologies Group	Close$10.4930 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessWeak	The priceFull	The betFair	Balance sheet-	Where the view moves-	Next report9 Nov
	One lease so far, a related-party loan among its debts, and each step funded with new shares.
9	DGXXDigi Power X	Close$3.198 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessWeak	The priceFull	The betCheap	Balance sheet$78.5Mcash; its debt is not taggedDec 2025	Where the view moves-	Next report13 Nov
	No borrowings at all, but the weakest business here: one tenant, a share count that has tripled, and an upside that needs a second tenant nobody has signed.
10	SLNHSoluna Holdings	Close$0.7913 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessWeak	The priceFull	The betFair	Balance sheet$26.8Mdebt; its cash is not taggedDec 2025	Where the view moves-	Next report12 Nov
	No AI tenant, a loan expected to fail its covenant test, and preferred holders who rank ahead of common shareholders.
11	CRWVCoreWeave	Close$61.3916 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$18.2Bnet debtDec 2025	Where the view movesNo price route	Next report9 Nov
	The biggest and best-known business, but even success pays less than today's price, and its unsecured bonds trade at distressed yields.

Least hurt by a rate rise, first

DGXXThe cleanest balance sheet in the group. A rate rise reaches it only through the share sales it uses to build.
NBISCash roughly matches its fixed-rate convertibles and nothing falls due for years. The risk is the next build, which has no funding plan yet.
KEELLight debt today only because it has not started building. Once a tenant signs it must borrow billions at whatever rates are then.
RIOTModest debt, but a bridge loan due at year end has to be replaced with long-term borrowing, so a rate rise would land right away.
HUTHeavy borrowing, but fixed-rate, tied to single projects and paid down inside long leases: little rate sensitivity, slow to pay.
CIFRIts project notes are fixed, but a cost overrun has used much of its corporate cash and the unsigned sites need new money.
APLDHeavy fixed-rate notes plus a preferred stake. The cost of the next building is what a rate rise would raise.
IRENIts newest GPU loan is already expensive, and billions of next year's plan are unraised, at whatever rates the market then sets.
BTDRMeaningful net debt and a reliance on share sales make tighter money costly in dilution as well as interest.
SLNHCovenant pressure and preferred holders ahead make it the most fragile balance sheet after CoreWeave's.
CRWVThe most borrowed by a wide margin, with large maturities over the next two years and interest already taking most of its profit.

02Optical networking and photonicsThe optics names fell together in mid-October. Fabrinet has the strongest business and no debt; IPG Photonics is closest to Attractive on price alone.

Ranked 18 Oct, on the 16 Oct close.

Reviewed sinceFN26 OctAAOI26 OctCRDO22 OctMXL22 OctGLW27 Oct

Reported sinceMXL22 OctGLW27 Oct

#	Company	Close	Our view	The business	The price	The bet	Balance sheet	Where the view moves	Next report
1	FNFabrinet	Close$463.692 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessStrong	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$875Mcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesNo price route	Next report2 Nov
	The strongest business of the group, with no debt. The view turns Attractive a little lower, but only if AI transceiver revenue grows again, which the next print tests.
2	IPGPIPG Photonics	Close$84.052 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$871Mcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$67.5120% below	Next report3 Nov
	The closest to Attractive on price alone, with a cash floor. The trade-off is a small upside if the business improves.
3	AAOIApplied Optoelectronics	Close$82.2228 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessWeak	The priceFull	The betFair	Balance sheet$441Mnet cashJun 2026	Where the view movesNeutral≈$61.7225% below	Next report5 Nov
	The group's only large asymmetric bet: a big payoff if it works, but a weak business burning cash, and still Unattractive after the fall.
4	CIENCiena	Close$391.342 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$600Mnet debtAug 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$310.1821% belowplus a business test	Next report10 Dec
	A solid business close to Attractive on price, but its route also needs the backlog to keep growing.
5	CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding	Close$167.4327 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$764Mcash; its debt is not taggedAug 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report2 Dec
	Cash and no debt, with its optical line coming as a free option. The view moves only by delivering next year's plan.
6	MRVLMarvell Technology	Close$272.292 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$1.03Bnet debtAug 2026	Where the view movesNeutral$188.4631% below	Next report1 Dec
	A fast-growing AI chip designer priced for this plan and much of the next. Its best route only reaches Neutral, and that is still well below.
7	MXLMaxLinear	Close$78.8214 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceStretched	The betFair	Balance sheet$83.0Mnet debtSep 2026	Where the view movesNeutral≈$57.2027% below	Next report4 Feb
	Optical chips revived it, but the price needs twice its best year, and even its best route only reaches Neutral.
8	LPTHLightPath Technologies	Close$8.3727 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$93.2Mcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$5.9429% belowplus a business test	Next report10 Nov
	Demand for American infrared glass that Congress has legislated, but the price is rich and its route to Attractive needs a business test as well.
9	LITELumentum Holdings	Close$971.2630 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessSolid	The priceStretched	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$496Mnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesNeutral≈$438.9955% below	Next report5 Nov
	A real laser shortage, priced as if Lumentum becomes several times its size. Even its best route only reaches Neutral, far below.
10	COHRCoherent	Close$287.8130 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$1.24Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$111.6461% belowplus a business test	Next report4 Nov
	Record profit but little cash, and third place in a market outgrowing it. The price is far above any level that would move the view.
11	GLWCorning	Close$153.7630 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The betNo upside	Balance sheet$5.92Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$83.2246% belowplus a business test	Next report27 Jan
	Real AI demand for its fibre, but its best customer paid in shares and the evidence defends no big win at today's price.

Least hurt by a rate rise, first

FNNo debt and it funds itself, so a rate rise reaches it only through the multiple.
IPGPCash and no debt. A rate rise matters mainly through what its customers spend on lasers.
CRDONo debt. A rate rise would reach it through its multiple and its customers' build plans.
CIENModest net debt against strong yearly cash flow, so a rate rise costs it little.
MXLLittle net debt. A rate rise reaches it mainly through its multiple.
LPTHSmall and lightly borrowed. A rate rise reaches it mainly through its multiple and any new shares it sells.
LITENet debt, so dearer money adds to a multiple that already asks a lot.
MRVLOne of the levered names, so dearer money weighs on it twice: through interest and through its multiple.
COHROne of the levered names, with billions of debt, so a rate rise hits both its interest and its multiple.
GLWThe most borrowed name here, so dearer money weighs on it most of the established names.
AAOIThe most exposed: it burns cash and needs outside money to keep building, which tighter money makes dearer.

03Memory and storageMicron is the only true DRAM maker we cover and has by far the cleanest balance sheet. The rest ride memory prices from the side.

Ranked 18 Oct, on the 16 Oct close.

Reviewed sinceSIMO29 OctFORM29 OctSTX28 Oct

Reported sinceSIMO28 OctFORM28 OctSTX27 Oct

#	Company	Close	Our view	The business	The price	The bet	Balance sheet	Where the view moves	Next report
1	MUMicron Technology	Close$1,065.1130 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$38.3Bnet cashSep 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$715.3733% below	Next report23 Dec
	By far the cleanest balance sheet and the cheapest on earnings. The risk is that today's profits are a cycle peak. The view turns Attractive lower, or on long contract cover.
2	SIMOSilicon Motion Technology	Close$284.966 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$202Mcash; its debt is not taggedDec 2025	Where the view movesAttractive≈$132.7353% below	Next report2 Feb
	A similar distance from Attractive, but half its growth is flash resold at shortage prices, so the bet is fragile.
3	FORMFormFactor	Close$129.6925 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$334Mnet cashJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$57.4856% below	Next report10 Feb
	A clean balance sheet, but it would need to fall much further before the view moves.
4	STXSeagate Technology Holdings	Close$887.095 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessSolid	The priceStretched	The bet-	Balance sheet$1.86Bnet debtJul 2026	Where the view movesNeutral$543.1239% below	Next report27 Jan
	A strong drive maker at a cyclical peak, priced as if the peak lasts. Even a large fall only reaches Neutral.
5	NTAPNetApp	Close$199.2811 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$1.09Bnet cashJul 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$123.3038% belowplus a business test	Next report1 Dec
	A flash buyer rather than a memory maker, so the shortage squeezes it. It is far from any level that would move the view.
6	PENGPenguin Solutions	Close$67.5914 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$142Mnet debtAug 2026	Where the view movesNeutral≈$37.2145% below	Next report5 Jan
	Shortage prices treated as a normal year, cash that only matches its debt, and cash flow running negative. Even its route only reaches Neutral.

Least hurt by a rate rise, first

MULarge net cash and it funds itself, and its multiple is already low, so a rate rise has little to compress.
FORMNet cash, and it funds itself.
NTAPNet cash. A rate rise reaches it mainly through its customers' budgets.
SIMONo borrowings, though its cash flow was thin last year.
STXNet debt, which a cyclical peak hides and dearer money makes costlier.
PENGThe exposed one: debt matches its cash and it is burning cash, so higher rates bite directly.

04Datacenter power and electrical equipmentThe selloff hit the money-losers hardest while the profitable contractors barely moved. EMCOR is the only name already Attractive.

Ranked 18 Oct, on the 16 Oct close.

Reviewed sinceEME29 OctECG26 OctFPS23 OctIESC23 OctVRT28 OctGEV28 OctFIX23 OctPOWL27 OctPWR29 OctBE29 OctTE27 Oct

Reported sinceEME29 OctVRT28 OctGEV28 OctFIX22 OctPWR29 OctBE22 Oct

#	Company	Close	Our view	The business	The price	The bet	Balance sheet	Where the view moves	Next report
1	EMEEMCOR Group	Close$762.2125 Sep	Our viewAttractive	The businessStrong	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$775Mcash; its debt is not taggedSep 2026	Where the view movesNeutral$977.1928% above	Next report-
	The only name of the fourteen already Attractive, with net cash and no borrowings. The view drops to Neutral only well above today's price.
2	ECGEverus Construction Group	Close$126.175 Oct	Our viewAttractive	The businessSolid	The priceCheap	The bet-	Balance sheet$274Mdebt; its cash is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesNeutral≈$120.65-4% above	Next report3 Nov
	Close to Attractive on price alone, with a second route through next year's margin guide. Its margin runs above what management calls normal.
3	FPSForgent Power Solutions	Close$40.352 Oct	Our viewAttractive	The businessSolid	The priceCheap	The bet-	Balance sheet$485Mnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesNeutral≈$36.92-9% above	Next report-
	As close as ECG and growing faster, but with heavier debt, and it will now report orders only once a year, hiding the question its view turns on.
4	IESCIES Holdings	Close$308.837 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$388Mcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$204.7234% belowplus a business test	Next report20 Nov
	Close to Attractive on price, but its route also needs the margin to clear a bar. A defensive bet with a small payoff.
5	VRTVertiv Holdings	Close$280.534 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$584Mnet cashSep 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$173.9338% belowplus a business test	Next report10 Feb
	A further fall and a met full-year guide would both be needed before the view moves.
6	ETNEaton	Close$425.3711 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$19.9Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$307.9228% belowplus a business test	Next report3 Nov
	A quality business, but it needs a deeper fall and higher earnings next year to turn Attractive.
7	GEVGE Vernova	Close$941.7814 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessStrong	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$2.83Bdebt; its cash is not taggedSep 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$719.6624% belowplus a business test	Next report27 Jan
	Large net cash, but even a working bet pays less than today's price, and its route needs a much lower price plus backlog and margin.
8	FIXComfort Systems USA	Close$1,658.9125 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessStrong	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$2.11Bnet cashSep 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$1,077.2135% belowplus a business test	Next report18 Feb
	Net cash and a strong record, but it would need a deep fall and steady same-store growth before the view moves.
9	POWLPowell Industries	Close$181.174 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$634Mcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report17 Nov
	No price route at all: the view moves only if its backlog converts on time, which the next print shows.
10	PWRQuanta Services	Close$662.601 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessSolid	The priceStretched	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$5.60Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesNeutral≈$407.3039% belowplus a business test	Next report-
	Large debt at a high multiple, a fragile bet that pays less than today's price, and even a deep fall only reaches Neutral.
11	ALNTAllient	Close$116.0125 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$131Mnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$53.4654% belowplus a business test	Next report4 Nov
	A fragile bet that pays less than today's price, and it would need a very deep fall plus a better data-centre mix.
12	BEBloom Energy	Close$276.9830 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceStretched	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$7.25Mnet cashSep 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$84.4270% belowplus business tests	Next report4 Feb
	A fragile bet whose payoff only matches today's price, needing a very deep fall and two business tests.
13	EOSEEos Energy Enterprises	Close$3.275 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessWeak	The priceStretched	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$312Mnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesNeutral≈$0.9671% belowplus a business test	Next report5 Nov
	Burning cash heavily, a fragile bet, and even a deep fall only reaches Neutral.
14	TET1 Energy	Close$2.6216 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessWeak	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$208Mnet debtDec 2025	Where the view moves-	Next report12 Nov
	The largest payoff if it works, but that rests on a tax credit nobody has shown it can turn into cash, and its second plant has no financing.

Least hurt by a rate rise, first

EMENet cash, so a rate rise reaches it only through the data-centre build that fills its backlog.
GEVLarge net cash. Its exposure is through its customers' financing.
FIXNet cash and no reliance on markets.
POWLNet cash and little direct exposure.
IESCNet cash and little direct exposure to rates.
VRTLittle net debt. Its exposure comes through customers who borrow to build.
ECGNet debt below a year of its cash flow, so dearer money costs it little.
BESmall net cash, but its growth depends on customers who borrow to build.
ETNThe most debt in dollars plus a high multiple, so it takes a rate rise both ways.
PWRHeavy debt and a rich multiple, so a rate rise hits it twice.
FPSNet debt of several years' cash flow, so a hike costs it more than its peers.
ALNTNet debt of several years' cash flow.
EOSENet debt and a reliance on markets to fund itself make it one of the two most exposed.
TENet debt, little cash flow and an unfunded plant: the most exposed to dearer money.

05Semiconductor capital equipmentMost of the group reports within a month. ASML leads on quality and balance sheet; Ichor is the one a price drop alone would make Attractive.

Ranked 18 Oct, on the 16 Oct close.

Reviewed sinceICHR22 OctAMAT26 OctKLAC29 OctFORM29 OctACMR23 OctCOHU29 OctTER28 OctKLIC19 OctAEHR23 OctENTG21 Oct

Reported sinceKLAC28 OctFORM28 OctCOHU28 OctTER27 OctENTG29 Oct

#	Company	Close	Our view	The business	The price	The bet	Balance sheet	Where the view moves	Next report
1	ASMLASML Holding	Close$1,641.5216 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessStrong	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheetEUR 8.93Bnet cashDec 2025	Where the view movesAttractive$1,166.9629% belowplus a business test	Next report27 Jan
	The strongest business score and the best balance sheet, and it fell least. The view turns Attractive well lower, and only with growth holding.
2	ICHRIchor Holdings	Close$63.335 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$136Mnet cashJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$36.8242% below	Next report2 Nov
	The only name a price drop alone would make Attractive, and it is near. But it is losing money, burning cash and sells mostly to two customers.
3	AMATApplied Materials	Close$485.0025 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$1.49Bnet cashJul 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$218.0255% belowplus a business test	Next report12 Nov
	The second-best balance sheet, but far from its level, and its record profits have not yet become cash.
4	KLACKLA	Close$187.1124 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$4.24Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$97.6848% below	Next report4 Feb
	A strong business, but still far above where the view would change.
5	FORMFormFactor	Close$129.6925 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$334Mnet cashJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$57.4856% below	Next report10 Feb
	A clean balance sheet, but far from its level.
6	ONTOOnto Innovation	Close$268.014 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$1.88Bcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report9 Nov
	Plenty of cash and no debt, but no price route: the view waits on its margin.
7	ACMRACM Research	Close$49.1222 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$733Mnet cashJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report5 Nov
	The cheapest against its own listed rivals and a defensive bet, but no price route: the view waits on orders and cash flow.
8	COHUCohu	Close$73.735 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$206Mnet cashSep 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report18 Feb
	Close on price, but its margin is negative against the test its route needs, and the handler ramp has to arrive.
9	TERTeradyne	Close$379.7211 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$350Mnet cashJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$192.4349% belowplus a business test	Next report27 Jan
	A fragile bet that pays less than today's price even if it works, and far from its level.
10	KLICKulicke and Soffa Industries	Close$98.735 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$517Mcash; its debt is not taggedJul 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$39.9260% belowplus business tests	Next report18 Nov
	Peak-cycle profits from a few Chinese customers, a fragile bet that pays less than today's price, and two tests besides price.
11	AEHRAehr Test Systems	Close$104.405 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$116Mcash; its debt is not taggedMay 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report2 Nov
	At its line, but that line only reaches Neutral, and the price is many times its sales before the ramp ships.
12	ENTGEntegris	Close$142.149 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$3.10Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$96.6632% belowplus a business test	Next report-
	Record margins partly from an accounting change, far from its level, and its route also needs growth.
13	MKSIMKS	Close$265.508 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$3.49Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report4 Nov
	No price route: the view waits on a profit pace it has not shown, and it carries heavy debt.

Least hurt by a rate rise, first

ASMLLarge net cash and heavy free cash flow. A hike matters through fab spending, not its own funding.
AMATNet cash and large free cash flow.
ONTOCash and no debt.
KLICCash and no debt.
TERCash and no debt, but a high multiple to compress.
FORMNet cash, and it funds itself.
ACMRNet cash, though its cash flow is negative.
COHUNet cash, with an operating loss.
AEHRNo debt and a small burn, but the richest multiple in the group to compress.
ICHRSmall net cash but negative cash flow, so it would feel tighter money if the burn continued.
KLACSome net debt on the filed figures, well covered by its cash flow.
ENTGHeavy net debt against modest cash flow, and a rich multiple: one of the two most exposed.
MKSIHeavy net debt of several years' cash flow: the other of the two most exposed.

06Aerospace, defense and spaceNothing here is Attractive and no bet pays twice its price. BWX Technologies is first in line; TAT Technologies has the best balance sheet.

Ranked 18 Oct, on the 16 Oct close.

Reviewed sinceKTOS28 OctFTAI29 OctGE20 OctHXL22 OctSPCX23 Oct

Reported sinceFTAI29 OctGE20 OctHXL21 OctSPCX20 Oct

#	Company	Close	Our view	The business	The price	The bet	Balance sheet	Where the view moves	Next report
1	BWXTBWX Technologies	Close$139.9212 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$1.41Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$111.0421% below	Next report2 Nov
	First in line: it turns Attractive on a further fall alone and needs nothing else to happen.
2	TATTTAT Technologies	Close$32.8416 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$39.5Mnet cashDec 2025	Where the view movesAttractive≈$24.4126% below	Next report2 Nov
	The best balance sheet and the next closest to Attractive, on price alone.
3	AVAVAeroVironment	Close$137.119 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$96.7Mnet debtApr 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$91.8133% below	Next report8 Dec
	A further fall from Attractive. Its cash roughly covers its zero-coupon notes, but cash flow is negative.
4	KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions	Close$42.369 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$1.44Bcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$27.0136% below	Next report5 Nov
	Plenty of cash and no term debt, but a rich multiple and a weak bet, and far from its level.
5	FTAIFTAI Aviation	Close$157.5926 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$3.12Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$99.0937% belowplus business tests	Next report24 Feb
	The best bet in the group: it keeps almost everything if it fails and its power business comes free. But it has the weakest balance sheet that is not pre-revenue.
6	GEGE Aerospace	Close$324.1510 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessStrong	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$19.3Bdebt; its cash is not taggedSep 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$192.7441% belowplus a business test	Next report21 Jan
	Strong cash flow and a new acquisition, but it would need a deep fall and faster services growth.
7	HXLHexcel	Close$89.8210 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$857Mnet debtSep 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$59.2734% belowplus business tests	Next report27 Jan
	Debt above its own ceiling, and it needs a deep fall plus better margins and leverage.
8	ONDSOndas Holdings	Close$7.425 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$572Mcash; its debt is not taggedDec 2025	Where the view movesNeutral≈$2.5865% belowplus a business test	Next report12 Nov
	Cash and no debt, but a heavy burn, and even a deep fall only reaches Neutral.
9	RKLBRocket Lab	Close$69.6830 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceStretched	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$2.30Bnet cashJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$20.2871% belowplus a business test	Next report9 Nov
	It fell hardest with no level near: a very deep fall and Neutron flying would both be needed.
10	SPCXSpace Exploration Technologies	Close$150.8630 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceStretched	The betExpensive	Balance sheet-	Where the view movesNeutral≈$35.0077% below	Next report25 Feb
	Huge net cash against huge spending, at a value that only a very deep fall brings to Neutral.
11	ASTSAST SpaceMobile	Close$58.8630 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessWeak	The priceStretched	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$1.62Bnet cashJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$7.3388% belowplus a business test	Next report9 Nov
	Heavy cash burn, convertibles and nothing kept if it fails. Its route needs a collapse in price plus satellites and paying customers.

Least hurt by a rate rise, first

TATTNet cash, positive cash flow and an unused credit line: the least exposed.
BWXTModest net debt against good cash flow, with notes to refinance later in the decade.
GELarge cash flow, though it is borrowing for a deal.
AVAVLittle exposure through its debt, more through a rich multiple.
KTOSNo term debt, but a rich multiple and negative cash flow.
SPCXExposed through its multiple rather than its debt.
HXLNet debt above its own target, but nothing due for years.
RKLBAn acquisition adds term loans to a very rich multiple.
ONDSIt needs equity markets to keep funding its burn.
FTAIHeavy net debt on thin equity, negative cash flow and notes due within a few years: hit hardest by a hike.
ASTSThe most exposed: a large yearly burn funded from markets.

07Fintech and lendersLenders split on where their money comes from. Flywire is closest to Attractive with no debt; Affirm is the one least suited to a rate rise.

Ranked 18 Oct, on the 16 Oct close.

Reviewed sinceSOFI28 OctPYPL27 OctHOOD28 Oct

Reported sinceSOFI27 OctPYPL27 OctHOOD27 Oct

#	Company	Close	Our view	The business	The price	The bet	Balance sheet	Where the view moves	Next report
1	FLYWFlywire	Close$18.175 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$294Mcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$17.136% belowplus a business test	Next report3 Nov
	Closest to Attractive with no debt, but its route also needs next year's guide to call for faster growth at a higher margin.
2	CHYMChime Financial	Close$26.4623 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$1.06Bcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$21.4519% below	Next report4 Nov
	No debt and already about at its price line. The margin half can complete at the fourth-quarter print at the earliest.
3	SOFISoFi Technologies	Close$15.7230 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$3.13Bcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$16.03-2% belowplus a business test	Next report29 Jan
	Already past its price line, but return on tangible equity has to roughly double, which the next print will not show.
4	NUNu Holdings	Close$13.7218 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessStrong	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet-	Where the view moves-	Next report12 Nov
	The second-best business here, but no price route: both routes wait on results, from Mexico and from returns after tax.
5	TOSTToast	Close$30.045 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessStrong	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$1.01Bcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$23.6321% below	Next report3 Nov
	The best business in the group with no debt, but it needs a deeper fall to turn Attractive.
6	DLODlocal Limited	Close$13.752 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet-	Where the view movesAttractive≈$9.6730% below	Next report12 Nov
	A clean balance sheet, but a deep fall from Attractive.
7	MQMarqeta	Close$17.035 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$701Mcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$11.0935% belowplus a business test	Next report3 Nov
	No debt, but far from its level unless next year's gross-profit guide is strong.
8	PYPLPayPal Holdings	Close$52.802 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$3.19Bnet debtSep 2026	Where the view movesNo price route	Next report2 Feb
	An expensive bet whose big win roughly matches today's price. Attractive needs a deep fall or faster checkout growth.
9	HOODRobinhood Markets	Close$112.742 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$3.17Bnet cashSep 2026	Where the view movesNo price route	Next report9 Feb
	Strong cash and profits, but it needs a deep fall with growth holding.
10	PAYSPaysign	Close$14.361 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$5.25Mdebt; its cash is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$10.1130% belowplus a business test	Next report9 Nov
	No debt, but an expensive bet, and a deep fall is needed alongside a quarter at guidance.
11	DAVEDave	Close$372.2415 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$253Mcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report4 Nov
	No price route: the view waits on revenue per member and late payments.
12	CPAYCorpay	Close$408.2211 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$7.46Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report4 Nov
	No price route: the view waits on its take rate and return on capital.
13	LMNDLemonade	Close$45.1430 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$377Mcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$28.4437% below	Next report5 Nov
	Still losing money, an expensive bet, and far from its level.
14	FIGRFigure Technology Solutions	Close$27.1316 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$1.12Bnet cashJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$18.4632% below	Next report12 Nov
	It funds itself through markets rather than deposits, late loans are rising, and the bet is expensive.
15	AFRMAffirm Holdings	Close$77.7628 Aug	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$8.16Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$56.1428% belowplus a business test	Next report5 Nov
	The one least suited to a rate rise, and even its big win pays less than today's price.
16	SIEBSiebert Financial	Close$2.608 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessWeak	The priceFull	The betNo upside	Balance sheet$11.1Mnet cashJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report-
	A structural dead end: the evidence defends no upside at all.

Least hurt by a rate rise, first

FLYWNo debt. A rate rise reaches it through customer spending and its multiple.
CHYMNo debt and fees from card swipes, so rates matter little.
TOSTNo debt and little direct exposure.
MQNo debt and little direct exposure.
DLOLittle direct exposure.
PAYSIt gains from higher rates on the cash it holds.
HOODIt gains on interest income, but its multiple is at risk.
LMNDIt earns more on its float, but its multiple is at risk.
SIEBIt earns more on cash, which does not change the case.
CPAYRoughly offsetting: it earns on customer funds and pays more on its debt.
PYPLCash roughly matches its debt and its cash flow is large.
DAVESome exposure through what it pays to fund its advances.
NUWhat matters is Brazil's policy rate, not the Fed's: its deposits reprice with Brazil's, and Brazil has been cutting.
SOFICushioned by deposits, but a hike raises deposit costs and marks down loans it holds at fair value.
FIGRIts warehouse and securitisation funding costs rise before its fixed-rate loans reprice.
AFRMThe most exposed: market funding plus convertibles, so a hike lifts its costs first.

08LiDAR and 3D sensingNone of the three turns Attractive on price alone. Hesai has the strongest balance sheet and the only bet that still pays.

Ranked 18 Oct, on the 16 Oct close.

#	Company	Close	Our view	The business	The price	The bet	Balance sheet	Where the view moves	Next report
1	HSAIHesai Group	Close$15.9530 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheetCNY 4.03Bnet cashDec 2025	Where the view moves-	Next report10 Nov
	Net cash is more than half its market value, and it is the only bet here that still pays more than today's price. The view waits on shipments, margin and grant-free profit.
2	OUSTOuster	Close$40.3430 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$262Mcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report3 Nov
	A sound balance sheet, but even a working bet is worth less than today's price, and the view waits on growth, margin and the share count stopping.
3	AEVAAeva Technologies	Close$14.0430 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceStretched	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$178Mcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$5.1264% belowplus a business test	Next report4 Nov
	It needs a deep fall and a programme reaching priced volume, and it is the name most exposed to tight money.

Least hurt by a rate rise, first

HSAIThe least exposed. Its bigger risks are the Pentagon listing and profit that has leaned on grants.
OUSTNo debt, but it sells shares to fund growth, so a weaker market costs it dilution.
AEVAThe most exposed: under two years of cash, convertible debt and repeated raises.

09AI chips and chip designersNVIDIA and Broadcom are the two rated Attractive. SiTime and Monolithic Power sit closest to turning Attractive on price alone.

Ranked 20 Oct, on the 19 Oct close.

Reviewed sinceAVGO26 OctSITM22 Oct

#	Company	Close	Our view	The business	The price	The bet	Balance sheet	Where the view moves	Next report
1	NVDANVIDIA	Close$233.952 Oct	Our viewAttractive	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$23.2Bnet cashJul 2026	Where the view movesNeutral≈$336.3044% above	Next report17 Nov
	Rated Attractive with a solid business, a fair price and the most net cash in the group. The price would have to rise a long way before the view turns Neutral.
2	AVGOBroadcom	Close$343.641 Oct	Our viewAttractive	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$35.4Bnet debtAug 2026	Where the view movesNeutral$474.5238% aboveplus a business test	Next report9 Dec
	Also Attractive, a solid business at a fair price, but it carries large net debt, and as a bet it is fragile: little gain even if its AI sales arrive.
3	SITMSiTime	Close$709.442 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet-	Where the view movesAttractive≈$442.7838% below	Next report4 Nov
	The closest to Attractive on price alone, with no business test attached. But the business is mixed, and the view hinges on whether buyers ordering ahead are stockpiling.
4	MPWRMonolithic Power Systems	Close$1,439.732 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$1.41Bcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$1,061.8926% below	Next report29 Oct
	A solid business with no debt, not far from Attractive on price alone. The price already pays for AI orders holding up, which a slowdown would test.
5	MCHPMicrochip Technology Incorporated	Close$81.322 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$5.09Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$60.4426% below	Next report5 Nov
	Within reach of Attractive on price, but a mixed business with heavy debt, and the view hinges on whether the upturn is real demand or restocking.
6	AMDAdvanced Micro Devices	Close$528.7516 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$9.88Bnet cashJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$353.5733% below	Next report3 Nov
	Net cash and the only other AI chip seller at scale, but a mixed business at a full price; the view turns Attractive only a long way lower.
7	ALABAstera Labs	Close$265.4516 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$1.25Bcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$99.6862% belowplus a business test	Next report3 Nov
	A solid business growing fast, but far from Attractive, and it needs a second and third customer for its new switch before the view can move.
8	LSCCLattice Semiconductor	Close$110.9618 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$173Mcash; its debt is not taggedJul 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report2 Nov
	A mixed business at a full price, with heavy stock pay and debt from its firmware purchase. The review record holds no price level for it yet.
9	WOLFWolfspeed	Close$30.549 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessWeak	The priceFull	The betFair	Balance sheet$599Mnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesNeutral≈$17.3243% below	Next report4 Nov
	Rated Unattractive: bankruptcy fixed the debt, not the shrinking business, and even a much lower price would only take the view to Neutral.
10	INTCIntel	Close$120.2330 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessWeak	The priceStretched	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$20.8Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$50.8758% belowplus a business test	Next report29 Oct
	Rated Unattractive, a weak business at a stretched price that pays for a chip-making service with no named outside customer.
11	NVTSNavitas Semiconductor	Close$11.6130 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessWeak	The priceStretched	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$557Mcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$2.5678% belowplus a business test	Next report3 Nov
	Rated Unattractive and the furthest from Attractive here: revenue halved, losses continue and the share count keeps rising.

Least hurt by a rate rise, first

NVDATens of billions in net cash, so dearer money reaches it only through what its customers spend on data centres.
MPWRNo debt, so a rate rise reaches it only through the multiple.
AMDNet cash, so a rate rise reaches it through the multiple and through how much its customers borrow for AI racks.
ALABHolds cash and the page shows no debt figure; a rate rise reaches it through a multiple that pays for its new switch.
SITMIts filed balance sheet is not on the page. A rate rise reaches it mainly through a multiple that pays for years of growth.
AVGOLarge net debt; strong cash flow covers the interest, but refinancing at higher rates would take a bigger slice.
NVTSHolds cash from share sales and the page shows no debt figure, but it keeps losing money, so tighter markets make the next raise costlier.
LSCCIts firmware purchase added borrowing the page does not show, and dearer money makes that costlier while stock pay already takes a large slice.
MCHPHeavy net debt and reported profit about half its preferred figure, so higher interest bites harder here than at its rivals.
INTCLarge net debt and heavy factory spending, so dearer money raises the cost of a foundry plan that still lacks outside customers.
WOLFStill carries net debt with sales falling, so it has the least room of the group if money gets dearer.

10AI servers, networking and the boards insideThe price has already reached the level for Jabil and TTM; what stands between them and Attractive is a business test, not the price.

Ranked 20 Oct, on the 19 Oct close.

Reviewed sinceTTMI22 OctAPH28 OctCLS27 Oct

Reported sinceTTMI22 OctAPH28 OctCLS26 Oct

#	Company	Close	Our view	The business	The price	The bet	Balance sheet	Where the view moves	Next report
1	JBLJabil	Close$299.791 Oct	Our viewAttractive	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$1.64Bnet debtAug 2026	Where the view movesNeutral$320.337% above	Next report16 Dec
	The price has reached the level that would make it Attractive, but a business test still stands in the way. The AI growth is real, at thin margins.
2	TTMITTM Technologies	Close$131.872 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$768Mnet debtSep 2026	Where the view movesNo price route	Next report3 Feb
	Also at its level, with a business test outstanding: the new AI boards must arrive on time and growth must broaden beyond two customers.
3	ANETArista Networks	Close$206.5525 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$13.3Bcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$153.3826% belowplus a business test	Next report3 Nov
	A solid business with large cash, near Attractive on price, but an independent count ranks it third in AI switching, and that is its business test.
4	CSCOCisco Systems	Close$117.946 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$15.2Bnet debtJul 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$86.3927% below	Next report11 Nov
	Solid and growing again, with no business test between it and Attractive, but part of the upswing is a replacement cycle, and cycles end.
5	APHAmphenol	Close$79.3516 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessStrong	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$13.4Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$60.6424% belowplus a business test	Next report27 Jan
	The strongest business here, at a full price well above its listed rivals', which assumes AI orders keep rising; those orders can be cancelled.
6	HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise Company	Close$62.0911 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$14.0Bnet debtJul 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report3 Dec
	A fair price for its own plan, but most of it is servers and storage, where margins are falling. The review record holds no price level for it.
7	SANMSanmina	Close$198.474 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$327Mnet debtJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report9 Nov
	Repriced as an AI company before AMD's racks ship in volume, and as a bet priced for success. The review record holds no price level for it.
8	CLSCelestica	Close$346.4711 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$3.14Bnet cashSep 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report27 Jan
	Rated Unattractive: fast sales growth adds little cash, shareholders have just put in new money, and part of the profit is tied to its own share price.
9	SMCISuper Micro Computer	Close$39.859 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessWeak	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$7.54Bcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report3 Nov
	A weak business: fast growth used up billions in stock and unpaid customer bills, covered by new debt and shares, and it keeps a tenth of each sales dollar.

Least hurt by a rate rise, first

ANETLarge cash and the page shows no debt figure, so a rate rise reaches it only through the multiple and its customers' spending.
TTMIModest net debt and defence work that does not move with rates; a rise reaches it mainly through the multiple.
JBLModerate net debt against steady cash flow; dearer money reaches it mainly through its customers' data-centre budgets.
CSCONet debt from past purchases, covered many times by cash flow, so a rate rise reaches it mainly through the multiple.
CLSSmall net debt, but its growth uses ever more capital, so dearer money raises the cost of funding it.
SANMSmall net debt, but taking over AMD's factories and building racks ties up cash that dearer money makes costlier.
APHLarge net debt after recent purchases, well covered by cash flow; refinancing is the rate exposure, along with a full multiple.
HPEHeavy net debt after its Juniper purchase, so a rate rise raises its interest costs while server margins are already falling.
SMCIHolds cash raised from debt and shares, but growth swallows it in stock and unpaid bills, so tighter credit hurts it most.

11Power producers and nuclear fuelNone has a measured price at which the view turns Attractive. Vistra and NRG are the fair prices; Constellation and NextEra the better businesses, fully priced.

Ranked 20 Oct, on the 19 Oct close.

Reviewed sinceNEE21 Oct

Reported sinceNEE21 Oct

#	Company	Close	Our view	The business	The price	The bet	Balance sheet	Where the view moves	Next report
1	VSTVistra	Close$136.2121 Aug	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$19.2Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesNo price route	Next report6 Nov
	A solid business at a fair price on its underlying profit, with the AI demand close to free. The view turns on its profit aim, not on a price level.
2	NRGNRG Energy	Close$95.6530 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$23.1Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report9 Nov
	A fair price for the plants it owns, paying nothing yet for its data-centre plan; as a bet it is defensive, so little is lost if no deal signs.
3	TLNTalen Energy	Close$304.4225 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$9.34Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report3 Nov
	Fair on the company's adjusted profit but twice as dear on reported profit, and growing on debt. It needs another binding power contract.
4	CEGConstellation Energy	Close$272.8821 Aug	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$24.0Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report9 Nov
	The broadest signed data-centre power deals in this coverage, but the price already knows it, and debt rose sharply with its Calpine purchase.
5	NEENextEra Energy	Close$76.0825 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessStrong	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$100Bnet debtSep 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report26 Jan
	The strongest business, earning the best returns among its peers, but at a full price that assumes its Dominion purchase clears five regulators.
6	LEUCentrus Energy	Close$109.4227 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessWeak	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$691Mnet cashJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report4 Nov
	Rated Unattractive: today a reseller of mostly Russian and French enrichment, its value resting on a plant whose cost and size are unpublished.

Least hurt by a rate rise, first

LEUNet cash, so a rate rise reaches it mainly through the cost of funding a plant nobody has priced yet.
VSTHeavy net debt, but its plants are hedged and the cash business is growing; refinancing is what a rate rise would raise.
CEGNet debt rose sharply with Calpine; its nuclear contracts are long, but refinancing that debt is the rate exposure.
TLNGrowing on borrowed money with its debt goal still ahead, so higher rates slow the path to it.
NRGHeavy net debt after a big purchase, plus new shares; dearer money makes building its reserved plants costlier.
NEEBy far the most borrowed name in the group, and a utility whose returns regulators set, so higher rates squeeze it most directly.

12The mega-cap platformsMeta is the one rated Attractive and Microsoft the nearest to joining it. Every one of them is spending heavily on AI data centres.

Ranked 20 Oct, on the 19 Oct close.

Reviewed sinceMETA27 OctMSFT29 OctGOOG29 OctORCL28 Oct

Reported sinceMETA21 OctMSFT28 OctGOOG28 Oct

#	Company	Close	Our view	The business	The price	The bet	Balance sheet	Where the view moves	Next report
1	METAMeta Platforms	Close$751.6625 Sep	Our viewAttractive	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$1.22Bnet debtSep 2026	Where the view movesNeutral≈$813.488% above	Next report27 Jan
	The only one rated Attractive: the ad business alone covers the price, so its glasses and new AI products come free. The question is whether the data-centre spending earns a return.
2	MSFTMicrosoft	Close$529.306 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessStrong	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$29.0Bnet cashSep 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$470.0311% below	Next report26 Jan
	A strong business at a fair price, the nearest to Attractive with no business test, though its spare cash has fallen as data-centre spending nearly doubled.
3	GOOGAlphabet	Close$340.352 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$139Bnet cashSep 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$270.6020% below	Next report3 Feb
	Search is growing faster and its cloud is booming, but cash flow has turned negative and it has started issuing new shares to pay for the build.
4	ORCLOracle	Close$144.776 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$37.1Bcash; its debt is not taggedAug 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$105.1427% below	Next report14 Dec
	Fairly priced on its plan, but borrowing and issuing shares to build for one buyer, OpenAI, behind most of its signed contracts. Conviction is low.
5	AAPLApple	Close$343.4616 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessStrong	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$19.9Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$271.6121% belowplus a business test	Next report2 Nov
	A strong business at a full price that needs faster profit growth than Apple has managed lately; a business test stands between it and Attractive.
6	NFLXNetflix	Close$71.3623 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$6.91Bnet debtSep 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report19 Jan
	Solid and fairly priced after a sharp fall, but YouTube takes far more viewing and cash spent on shows is rising faster than the cost charged to profit.
7	AMZNAmazon.com	Close$248.231 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessStrong	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$9.56Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report29 Oct
	A strong business at a full price: its earnings look cheap only because of a paper gain on Anthropic, and it spends more cash than it makes.

Least hurt by a rate rise, first

GOOGThe most net cash in the group, so dearer money barely touches it, though it now issues shares for the build.
MSFTLarge net cash, so a rate rise reaches it only through the multiple.
METANet cash, so a rate rise reaches it through advertisers' budgets and the cost of its build more than through interest.
AAPLModest net debt against enormous cash flow, so a rate rise reaches it only through the multiple.
NFLXModest net debt with growing cash flow; a rate rise reaches it mainly through the multiple.
AMZNSmall net debt, but it spends more cash than it makes on data centres, so dearer money raises the cost of the gap.
ORCLThe most exposed here: it borrows heavily to build, and its main buyer must raise money to pay, so dearer money hits both sides.

13CybersecurityEvery name here is Neutral or Unattractive. Tenable and Telos are the fair prices; Fortinet is the strongest business, priced as if its replacement wave lasts.

Ranked 20 Oct, on the 19 Oct close.

Reviewed sinceTENB28 OctFTNT28 Oct

Reported sinceTENB28 OctFTNT28 Oct

#	Company	Close	Our view	The business	The price	The bet	Balance sheet	Where the view moves	Next report
1	TENBTenable Holdings	Close$33.448 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$298Mcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report3 Feb
	One of only two fair prices here, with steady subscription cash. The business is mixed: growth has slowed for years and share pay still takes a large slice.
2	TLSTelos	Close$4.435 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$50.6Mcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$3.1629% below	Next report9 Nov
	A fair price on a small federal contractor, near Attractive with no business test, but it hinges on new awards replacing resale revenue that ends soon.
3	SSentinelOne	Close$25.435 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$655Mcash; its debt is not taggedJul 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$13.0649% below	Next report3 Dec
	The nearest endpoint seller to Attractive, but new subscriptions have stopped growing and it sells the same job as Microsoft and CrowdStrike to the same buyers.
4	FTNTFortinet	Close$178.7423 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessStrong	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$2.44Bnet cashJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$96.2446% belowplus a business test	Next report9 Feb
	The strongest business in the group, with net cash, but rated Unattractive: the price treats a hardware replacement wave as permanent.
5	OKTAOkta	Close$232.139 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$2.30Bcash; its debt is not taggedJul 2026	Where the view movesNeutral$165.0229% belowplus a business test	Next report1 Dec
	Rated Unattractive but the nearest to Neutral on price. Much of the hope rests on AI agents, which bring in no material revenue yet.
6	CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings	Close$244.5715 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceStretched	The bet-	Balance sheet$4.48Bnet cashJan 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$125.9748% belowplus business tests	Next report1 Dec
	Real demand, but the profit gain is mostly accounting and last year's absent charges, and the price is stretched; the view needs a much lower price and two business tests.
7	PANWPalo Alto Networks	Close$393.3023 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$3.07Bcash; its debt is not taggedJul 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$190.9251% belowplus a business test	Next report18 Nov
	A solid business whose growth is bought with shares, so revenue outgrows earnings per share; the view turns Attractive only far lower.
8	NETCloudflare	Close$360.939 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessSolid	The priceStretched	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$4.16Bcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesNeutral≈$177.6251% belowplus a business test	Next report5 Nov
	A solid business at a stretched price that needs a decade of fast growth; even a much lower price only moves the view to Neutral.
9	ATENA10 Networks	Close$25.8129 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$357Mnet cashJun 2026	Where the view movesNeutral≈$15.5840% below	Next report5 Nov
	Its growth is one customer that builds its own version while sales to everyone else fall; even far lower, the view only reaches Neutral.

Least hurt by a rate rise, first

FTNTNet cash and strong cash flow, so a rate rise reaches it only through the multiple.
CRWDNet cash and growing cash flow, so a rate rise reaches it through a stretched multiple rather than interest.
ATENNet cash, so a rate rise reaches it mainly through the multiple and its one big customer's spending.
TLSCash-rich with no debt figure on the page; dearer money touches it little, while federal budget timing matters far more.
TENBIts filing tags cash but not its borrowing, so the page shows no net figure; a rate rise reaches it mainly through the multiple.
SHolds cash from past share sales and the page shows no debt figure; stock pay dilutes owners whatever rates do.
OKTALarge cash and no debt figure on the page; a rate rise reaches it mainly through a multiple that prices agent revenue.
PANWLarge cash and no debt figure on the page, but it paid for its biggest purchase in shares, so dilution matters more than interest.
NETLarge cash against borrowing the page does not show; its stretched multiple is what a rate rise would hit hardest.

14Software that AI agents could replaceThe fear of AI agents repriced them together. Adobe is the one rated Attractive; Salesforce, Paylocity and Tyler are the fair-priced names nearest to joining it.

Ranked 20 Oct, on the 19 Oct close.

Reviewed sinceTYL28 OctAPPF22 OctNOW28 OctAGYS27 Oct

Reported sinceTYL28 OctAPPF22 OctNOW28 OctAGYS26 Oct

#	Company	Close	Our view	The business	The price	The bet	Balance sheet	Where the view moves	Next report
1	ADBEAdobe	Close$240.6923 Sep	Our viewAttractive	The businessSolid	The priceCheap	The bet-	Balance sheet$724Mnet debtAug 2026	Where the view movesNeutral≈$310.6429% above	Next report9 Dec
	The only name rated Attractive: a solid subscription business priced as if growth had stopped. Conviction is low because management will not say when its price rise arrives.
2	CRMSalesforce	Close$234.692 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$27.9Bnet debtJul 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$199.7715% belowplus a business test	Next report2 Dec
	A fair price on a solid business and the nearest to Attractive, though a business test stands in the way and growth without acquisitions is slow.
3	PCTYPaylocity Holding	Close$146.166 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessStrong	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$191Mnet cashJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$122.6716% belowplus a business test	Next report5 Nov
	A strong business at a fair price with net cash. Another year of beating its own cautious forecast would make today's price cheap.
4	TYLTyler Technologies	Close$329.559 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$879Mcash; its debt is not taggedSep 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$285.3613% below	Next report10 Feb
	Solid and fairly priced, with no business test between it and Attractive; the question is whether AI-built rivals stay in simpler government jobs.
5	ZMZoom Communications	Close$87.3028 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFair	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$7.25Bcash; its debt is not taggedJul 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$76.1613% belowplus a business test	Next report23 Nov
	A fair price once its cash and its Anthropic stake are taken out, but the meetings business barely grows and a business test remains.
6	PAYCPaycom Software	Close$220.4625 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$702Mnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$172.9122% belowplus a business test	Next report4 Nov
	A solid business at a fair price, but the easy gains from staff cuts and buybacks are already in the price, and growth has slowed for years.
7	GWREGuidewire Software	Close$152.152 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessStrong	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$753Mcash; its debt is not taggedJul 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$110.7227% belowplus a business test	Next report3 Dec
	A strong business insurers almost never leave, but the price needs its margin after share pay to nearly triple.
8	APPFAppFolio	Close$225.9515 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$259Mcash; its debt is not taggedSep 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$164.5527% belowplus a business test	Next report4 Feb
	A sticky ledger that earns more on each home it manages, but growth is slowing and the price needs that fee to keep rising fast.
9	NOWServiceNow	Close$137.976 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$2.92Bnet debtSep 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$98.2529% below	Next report27 Jan
	Solid, with very high renewals, but the price only makes sense if its long-range plan arrives, and no filing yet shows what agents do to its seat count.
10	FICOFair Isaac	Close$592.4730 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$5.33Bnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$453.2523% belowplus a business test	Next report4 Nov
	A fair price after a deep fall, but the regulator now lets lenders use a rival score, and nobody knows how far its mortgage price falls. Conviction is low.
11	UUnity Software	Close$43.611 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$2.35Bcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$40.10reachedplus a business test	Next report5 Nov
	Rated Unattractive, yet the price sits almost at the level that would make it Attractive; what stands in the way is a business test on its ad turnaround.
12	ZETAZeta Global Holdings	Close$29.4525 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$112Mnet cashJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$20.1732% belowplus a business test	Next report9 Nov
	Growing fast on its own, but share pay takes almost all the spare cash, and its fastest-growing part keeps less of each dollar.
13	AGYSAgilysys	Close$97.0830 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$138Mcash; its debt is not taggedSep 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$62.8435% below	Next report25 Jan
	Sticky hotel software, but the price already pays for a Marriott contract whose size the company will not give.
14	FIVNFive9	Close$37.6328 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$654Mcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$15.6258% belowplus a business test	Next report5 Nov
	Its AI agents have grown faster than the seats they were feared to kill, but share pay eats most of the cash and the price is far above its level.
15	GTLBGitLab	Close$47.428 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$226Mcash; its debt is not taggedJul 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$27.9741% belowplus business tests	Next report1 Dec
	Rated Unattractive: the AI business is small and partly moved from existing licences, and the view needs a much lower price and two business tests.

Least hurt by a rate rise, first

PCTYNet cash, and it earns interest on the client payroll money it holds, so higher rates help it rather than hurt.
ZMThe most cash in the group, so a rate rise earns it more interest and reaches the business only through the multiple.
PAYCBorrowed for share buybacks, but it also earns interest on client payroll money, which higher rates lift.
ADBEModest net debt against large cash flow, so a rate rise reaches it mainly through a multiple that is already low.
ZETASmall net cash, so a rate rise reaches it through brands' ad budgets and the multiple.
TYLHolds cash and the page shows no debt figure; a rate rise reaches it mainly through the multiple.
GWREHolds cash and the page shows no debt figure; a rate rise reaches it mainly through a full multiple.
APPFHolds cash and the page shows no debt figure; a rate rise reaches it mainly through the multiple.
FIVNHolds cash and the page shows no debt figure; a rate rise reaches it mainly through the multiple.
GTLBHolds cash and the page shows no debt figure; a rate rise reaches it through a full multiple.
UHolds cash and the page shows no debt figure; a rate rise reaches it through game makers' ad budgets more than through interest.
AGYSHolds cash and the page shows no debt figure; travel spending matters more to it than interest.
NOWModest net debt against strong cash flow; a rate rise reaches it mainly through a full multiple.
CRMThe heaviest net debt in the group; strong cash flow covers the interest, but it is the most exposed if refinancing gets dearer.
FICOHeavy net debt from years of buybacks, and its mortgage scores ride on loan volumes, which dearer money shrinks.

15Natural gas, its land and its shipsExpand Energy is the cheapest producer here, under a new chief executive; Excelerate is the only one within reach of Attractive on price.

Ranked 20 Oct, on the 19 Oct close.

Reviewed sinceEXE28 OctRRC26 OctEQT28 Oct

Reported sinceEXE27 OctRRC27 OctEQT27 Oct

#	Company	Close	Our view	The business	The price	The bet	Balance sheet	Where the view moves	Next report
1	EXEExpand Energy	Close$86.8425 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceCheap	The bet-	Balance sheet$4.51Bnet debtSep 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report16 Feb
	The cheapest of its rivals on profit and on what it owns, with debt that is low for its size. The view hinges on the new chief executive keeping the plan.
2	EEExcelerate Energy	Close$34.606 Oct	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFair	The bet-	Balance sheet$584Mnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive≈$27.6820% below	Next report4 Nov
	A fair price on scarce floating terminals rented on long contracts, and the nearest to Attractive, but it counts on an Iraq terminal starting on time inside a war zone.
3	RRCRange Resources	Close$38.6125 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$781Mnet debtSep 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report23 Feb
	A carefully run producer with low debt and a long power-plant contract, but already the dearest of its comparable rivals.
4	EQTEQT	Close$50.8125 Sep	Our viewNeutral	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$5.47Bnet debtSep 2026	Where the view moves-	Next report16 Feb
	Owns the pipelines most rivals lack and has cut debt fast, but it costs more than most of them while growing slowest.
5	TPLTexas Pacific Land	Close$360.989 Oct	Our viewUnattractive	The businessSolid	The priceFull	The betExpensive	Balance sheet$249Mcash; its debt is not taggedJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$190.7947% below	Next report4 Nov
	A superb landlord with no debt, rated Unattractive because the price needs decades of fast growth from a year of high oil prices.
6	LPGDorian LPG	Close$56.8215 Sep	Our viewUnattractive	The businessMixed	The priceFull	The bet-	Balance sheet$165Mnet debtJun 2026	Where the view movesAttractive$29.3748% below	Next report5 Nov
	Rated Unattractive: its rates are set by a war that closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the price assumes that windfall lasts.

Least hurt by a rate rise, first

TPLNo debt and cash on hand, so a rate rise reaches it only through a multiple that is already full.
RRCLow net debt, so a rate rise matters far less than gas prices.
EXENet debt that is low for its size; a rate rise matters less to it than the price of gas.
EEModerate net debt against long contracts; dearer money raises the cost of new terminals and ships.
LPGModest net debt on its ships; financing new vessels costs more when rates rise, but freight rates matter far more.
EQTMore net debt than its peers, though falling fast; refinancing is its rate exposure, gas prices its real one.