Aeva Technologies
A maker of laser sensors that let a truck or car see in three dimensions and tell, for every object around it, how fast it is moving.
The scores
Growth3/4 ↓
Grew 99% in FY2025 but decelerated to 11% in Q2 2026 on customer-concentrated, NRE-heavy revenue; the record is under two years.
Business quality3/4 →
Real qualification wins (Daimler Truck, a top-10 OEM) create genuine multi-year lock-in, but are untested by production volume or by cheaper time-of-flight substitution.
Financial position2/4 →
Cash funds about 17 months at the current burn rate, but the plan already leans on a facility expiring in November 2026.
Execution record3/4 ↓
Revenue has beaten estimates in five of the last six prints, but the FY2026 guide already looks at risk after Q2.
Per share capture2/4 ↓
Shares outstanding rose 11.5% in one quarter and diluted shares 17.2% year over year, with $100M of notes now near the money.
Potential2/4 →
Several large, real opportunities exist, but each is a development-stage agreement with no disclosed committed volume yet.
Risk profile3/4 →
Customer concentration (64% FY2025, 72% of H1 2026 in two names) is the dominant, disclosed risk; funding and share-count risk are scored elsewhere.
Valuation1/4 →
50x trailing sales and roughly 30-36x guided FY2026 sales assumes several unproven design wins convert without a major slip.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Central facts are filed and cross-checked, but the two biggest growth claims - the hyperscaler deal and OEM timelines - rest on unverified management claims.
If it works 0.8× · if it fails you keep about 0%.
The Verdict
We rate Aeva unattractive. Its laser sensor tells a truck or car how fast every point it sees is moving, which rivals cannot, and big vehicle makers have picked it, but none of those programmes is in production and the company keeps selling new shares to fund itself, so the business is mixed. The price is stretched: at about fifty times a year's sales, buyers pay now as if those wins ship on time. As a bet it is fragile: even if it works the shares look worth a bit less than today, and if it fails little or nothing is left. The wins are real; none is yet revenue.
The long caseIf carmakers and truck makers move from trials to firm orders for lidar that also measures speed, Aeva's sensors could sell in volume; none has committed yet.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
Neither the OEM's identity nor a contract document is filed anywhere; 'exclusive' and 'award' are Aeva's own characterization in a press release, with no independent confirmation of the kind Daimler Truck's own release provides for that program.
Daimler Truck's own press release confirms only a collaboration and a production-ramp timeline, not an exclusivity commitment, a volume, or a binding supply contract - 'exclusive' appears solely in Aeva's own language.
- 2026-09-26editedThe claim called the 16.5x median that of a cohort of five. The frozen pack strikes it on four: Hesai is withheld from EV/Sales because the vendor's two series for its sales disagree. The 50.5x, the 16.5x and the 3.06x are unchanged; the count and Hesai's absence are now stated.
The figure is management's own unaudited estimate on a call, for a business with zero disclosed revenue to date and a first deployment eighteen months out; no analyst asked how it was derived and no per-unit pricing has been disclosed.
The company
A self-driving truck needs to know where everything around it is heading. Most laser sensors, called lidar, fire pulses of light and time the echo. That gives distance, but speed has to be worked out by comparing one snapshot with the next.
Aeva's sensor, built on a chip, sends a continuous beam and reads the tiny shift in the light that bounces back, so every point arrives with its speed attached.
The evidence under this - 1 claim
How it makes money
Today it earns two kinds of money: sensors sold in small numbers, and fees from partners for engineering work to fit them, $18.1M in all in 2025. The mix swings its margin from quarter to quarter. The large, repeating money arrives only when a won programme reaches production.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
An alternative reading is that Q2 2026's 35.7% gross margin reflects durable, structural improvement - higher-mix shipments, manufacturing learning-curve gains at the new Jabil line - rather than one favorable quarter's mix; the 10-Q gives no separate product-versus-service margin breakdown to confirm either reading.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (H1 2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Engineering services (non-recurring engineering) | 60% | Paid development work for carmakers, truck makers and partners such as LG Innotek, recognised over time as the work is done. |
| Product sales | 40% | LiDAR sensors and precision-sensing units sold for development fleets, validation and industrial inspection, recognised when shipped. |
Who runs it
Two former Apple engineers, Soroush Salehian and Mina Rezk, founded Aeva in 2016 and still run it, as chief executive and as technology chief and chairman. The finance chief of six years left in September; the company's controller stands in until a permanent hire. Insiders hold about 37%, mostly the hedge fund Sylebra, whose founder sits on the board and also provides the standby funding. The founders' bonus is at the board's discretion, and most of their stock simply vests with time.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Between June 16 and August 11, 2026 Salehian sold 655,573 shares and Rezk 525,125, mostly under Rule 10b5-1 plans, and the June offering added shares, so the founders' March stakes overstate what they hold now (S38, C26).
The proxy names no metric or goal for the cash bonus, and the chief executive's $1.0M is above the 150%-of-salary maximum his 2022 employment agreement set; nothing in the plan pays on revenue, gross margin or cash use.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
A carmaker approves a sensor as part of a whole vehicle, after years of testing. Once a supplier wins that slot, rivals are locked out for five to seven years or more, because swapping means running the tests again.
Aeva holds exclusive-supplier wording on two of its biggest programmes: Daimler Truck's self-driving trucks, where early samples have passed on-road tests, and a top-10 European carmaker's global programme aimed at production in 2028. The lock only pays once production starts.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Neither the OEM's identity nor a contract document is filed anywhere; 'exclusive' and 'award' are Aeva's own characterization in a press release, with no independent confirmation of the kind Daimler Truck's own release provides for that program.
Daimler Truck's own press release confirms only a collaboration and a production-ramp timeline, not an exclusivity commitment, a volume, or a binding supply contract - 'exclusive' appears solely in Aeva's own language.
The threat
Both alternatives already ship. Pulse sensors keep getting cheaper: Mobileye stopped building its own continuous-beam sensor in 2024 and gave falling pulse-sensor costs as one reason. Tesla uses cameras alone, with no laser of any kind. Aeva's answer is to sell where directly measured speed matters most, such as long-distance trucking.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
The rivals: HSAI, OUST, INVZ, MVIS, TSLA, LIDR.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|
| HSAI · OUST · INVZ · MVIS | Time-of-flight LiDAR vendors (Hesai, Ouster, Innoviz, RoboSense, MicroVision)Priced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| TSLA | Camera-only ADAS/autonomy stacks (Tesla)Priced against it: Different product | On sale | Different product |
| LIDR | AEyePriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
How big it could get
How big this could get
The clearest market is heavy trucks: 208,155 of the largest class were sold in the US in 2025, a down year, and about 300,000 a year across North America. Bendix, whose safety system is on most of them, has chosen Aeva for its next version. Nobody has said how many trucks will carry it, or when, so the market cannot honestly be sized.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Independent trade-press data citing industry order/sales trackers puts actual 2025 U.S. Class 8 truck sales at 208,155, down 13.4% year over year - meaningfully below the ~300,000 figure management cited, in a shrinking year (C44).
Who has signed
None of the three deals that matter comes with a volume or a length. Daimler Truck and the European carmaker are design wins: real choices, paid only if the vehicles reach production. A deal to put Aeva's laser light source inside a large cloud company's data-centre equipment is a development agreement, not an order.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Neither the OEM's identity nor a contract document is filed anywhere; 'exclusive' and 'award' are Aeva's own characterization in a press release, with no independent confirmation of the kind Daimler Truck's own release provides for that program.
Daimler Truck's own press release confirms only a collaboration and a production-ramp timeline, not an exclusivity commitment, a volume, or a binding supply contract - 'exclusive' appears solely in Aeva's own language.
The agreement is explicitly a joint development agreement, not a supply or purchase agreement; Aeva's 10-Q lists no committed volume, price or customer name for it, and the release's own 'as soon as feasible' language signals the timeline itself is not fixed.
The results
The numbers
Sales grew 56% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, slower than the 99% in the year to Dec 2025.
Operating margin is −611%, up from −34× in the year to Dec 2023.
Running costs take 638¢ of each sales dollar, down from 1162¢ in the year to Dec 2021.
Yearly sales growth has ranged from −55% to +110% over the last 5 years, with sales falling in 1 of them.
It used $117M of cash over the last twelve months, so the $178M it holds lasts about 1.5 years at that pace.
The share count fell 68% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 135% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in December.
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | 12 mo to Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $9.27M | $4.19M | $4.31M | $9.06M | $18.1M | $21.6M |
| Sales growth | +91% | −55% | +2.9% | +110% | +99% | +56% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Gross margin | 37% | −102% | −137% | −42% | −3.7% | 27% |
| Operating margin | −11× | −36× | −34× | −17× | −706% | −611% |
| Net margin | −11× | −35× | −35× | −17× | −804% | −150% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Research and development | 807% | 26× | 24× | 11× | 473% | 411% |
| Sales and marketing | 48% | 168% | 177% | 79% | 37% | 32% |
| General and admin | 307% | 741% | 737% | 367% | 193% | 195% |
| Pay in shares | 240% | 578% | 549% | 262% | 121% | 135% |
| Capital spending | 42% | 177% | 142% | 56% | 25% | 24% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | −$82.1M | −$110M | −$119M | −$107M | −$115M | −$111M |
| Free cash flow | −$86.0M | −$117M | −$125M | −$112M | −$120M | −$117M |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $445M | $324M | $221M | $112M | $122M | $178M |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Shares (diluted) | 201M | 43.5M | 45.4M | 53.4M | 57.0M | 64.7M |
What growth costs
Aeva's research and running costs barely move, so each extra dollar of sales shrinks the loss: costs held flat while sales grew about fivefold since 2023. The catch is scale. Sales are still a small fraction of those costs, and the last year added more office and stock-pay spending as it builds the new data-centre business.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
Over the four quarters to June 2026 administration rose to $42.2M from $34.8M in FY2025 and stock pay to $29.1M from $21.8M, so cost dollars are rising again as the optical business is built.
The last report (5 Aug)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
The June 2026 quarter had one good number and one bad one. For the first time Aeva made a clear profit on what it sold, keeping 35.7 cents of each sales dollar after the cost of making it, against a loss of 49.4 cents a year earlier.
The bad number was growth. Sales of $6.1M rose only 11.3% on a year earlier and fell 2% from March. To land inside its own promise of $30M to $36M for the year, the second half now has to grow 91% to 157%.
What it did to the thesisIt proved one thing the bulls wanted: Aeva can now make a profit on what it sells. But growth nearly stalled, which makes the company's own yearly promise much harder to reach. That gap is the heart of the Unattractive view, and the next quarter has to close it.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $-0.41 against $-0.43 expected; $-1.23 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Management did not narrow, reaffirm or withdraw the $30-36 million guidance on the Q2 2026 call despite Q2 undershooting the pace needed; if a large order is already contracted for H2 delivery the gap could close without new bookings, but nothing filed discloses such a backlog.
What management did with the money
It raised money by selling shares, as it has every few months since 2023. A $115M sale in June lifted the share count 11.5% in one quarter. The $177.9M it held at June funds about 17 months at that quarter's spending, and its finance chief of six years left in September.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
Each raise had a stated strategic rationale - the LGIT partnership, the notes' long 2032 maturity, the follow-on funding the new optical-connectivity build-out - rather than being forced by an immediate cash shortfall, which could reflect opportunistic financing rather than dependency.
The estimate assumes gross cash use holds flat at the Q2 2026 rate; management said non-GAAP operating loss is targeted 'at similar levels to up slightly year over year' while revenue scales, which, if achieved, would extend rather than shorten the runway.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Priced for perfection. The price pays for customer wins that have not shipped. Even if one converts, the doubt about sales ends but the price problem stays.
The shares are down about 51% from their 52-week high, even after a 28.8% jump on the June results and the data-centre announcement. The fall has not made them cheap.
The test is close. On 4 November Aeva reports the September quarter, the first chance to see whether growth is returning to the pace its own promise needs. The $125M facility it can draw on by selling stock expires the same month.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The agreement is explicitly a joint development agreement, not a supply or purchase agreement; Aeva's 10-Q lists no committed volume, price or customer name for it, and the release's own 'as soon as feasible' language signals the timeline itself is not fixed.
Management did not narrow, reaffirm or withdraw the $30-36 million guidance on the Q2 2026 call despite Q2 undershooting the pace needed; if a large order is already contracted for H2 delivery the gap could close without new bookings, but nothing filed discloses such a backlog.
How we read the multiple
Buyers pay about 50 times last year's sales for the whole company, debt included. Its listed laser-sensor rivals sell for about 16.5 times, and only one is dearer. Against its net worth, what it owns minus what it owes, Aeva is the dearest of all.
That price needs Daimler to reach production, a car programme to reach volume and the data-centre deal to become a priced order, on management's timetable. None has a committed volume or firm order yet.
Against its own history. Against sales it sits where it always has, so the market has always priced it for wins still ahead. Against what it owns it is far dearer than usual.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
- 2026-09-26editedThe claim called the 16.5x median that of a cohort of five. The frozen pack strikes it on four: Hesai is withheld from EV/Sales because the vendor's two series for its sales disagree. The 50.5x, the 16.5x and the 3.06x are unchanged; the count and Hesai's absence are now stated.
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of sales, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | company value for each $1 of sales |
|---|---|---|
| INVZ | Innoviz Technologies | 2.2× |
| OUST | Ouster | 11.6× |
| MVIS | MicroVision | 21.4× |
| AEVA | Aeva Technologies | 50.5× |
| LIDR | AEye | 96.8× |
| HSAI | Hesai Group held out | not priced |
The middle of the other 4 is 16.5. Aeva Technologies, Inc. is 2nd dearest of 5.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
Near the top of its rivals against sales and the dearest of them against what they own. That position is Aeva's own, not the group's.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: RoboSense Technology Co., Ltd., Seyond (formerly Innovusion), Koito Manufacturing Co., Ltd. and Cepton, Luminar Technologies, Inc., Valeo SA and other Tier 1 automotive suppliers, Mobileye Global Inc. (in-house FMCW program, discontinued).
The bet: what it pays if it works
Even if this works, the shares look expensive. The best case we can defend is two analysts' sales forecast for 2028, several times this year's sales, and valued like a working lidar business that is worth less than today's price. Getting there needs a data-centre deal the size management describes, or several car and truck programmes reaching production together, and none has a signed volume yet.
If it fails, shareholders are left mostly with cash that shrinks every quarter, with convertible debt ahead of them.
| Revenue in two to three years | Such programmes needed | At the stated multiple |
|---|---|---|
| $66.10M | about 0 at 100% kept | 0.2× |
| $209.10M (the big win) | about 1 at 100% kept | 0.8× |
| $240.00M (market forecast) | about 1 at 100% kept | 0.9× |
| $522.60M | about 2 at 100% kept | 1.9× |
Yole's forecast puts automotive lidar near $2.9 billion in 2029, about 90% Chinese-supplied; outside China Aeva fills a fifth above its planned 200,000-unit capacity at $750, with industrial sensors and fees: about $240 million, barely past the big win. On that forecast, $240.00M pays 0.9× from today's value: an Expensive bet on the market case.
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $544.81M of revenue (about 3 such programmes); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $1.36B of revenue (about 7 such programmes), at the same multiple.
The steps it has to take
- Done Daimler Truck B-samples validated on the road, and production started on an automated line at Jabil
- Done Exclusive supply award for a top-10 European OEM's Level 3 programme
- In progress Q3 2026 revenue growth well above Q2's 11.3%, gross margin still positive due 2026-11-04
- In progress Daimler Truck C-samples delivered due 2026-12
- In progress Full-year 2026 revenue inside the $30-36M guide with positive gross margin due 2027-03
- Not started The hyperscaler joint development turns into a priced supply contract with volume due 2027-12
- Not started Daimler Truck's autonomous trucks reach series production on Aeva's sensor due 2027-12
- Not started The top-10 European OEM's Level 3 programme starts production due 2028-12
- Not started The hyperscaler optical product ramps in production due 2028-12
The detail behind the label
The evidence under this - 7 claims
The figure is management's own unaudited estimate on a call, for a business with zero disclosed revenue to date and a first deployment eighteen months out; no analyst asked how it was derived and no per-unit pricing has been disclosed.
Neither the OEM's identity nor a contract document is filed anywhere; 'exclusive' and 'award' are Aeva's own characterization in a press release, with no independent confirmation of the kind Daimler Truck's own release provides for that program.
Daimler Truck's own press release confirms only a collaboration and a production-ramp timeline, not an exclusivity commitment, a volume, or a binding supply contract - 'exclusive' appears solely in Aeva's own language.
The estimate assumes gross cash use holds flat at the Q2 2026 rate; management said non-GAAP operating loss is targeted 'at similar levels to up slightly year over year' while revenue scales, which, if achieved, would extend rather than shorten the runway.
Where we disagree with the market
The design wins and the new data-centre deal prove Aeva is taking off.
The nearer test is arithmetic: June's 11.3% growth against the 91% to 157% the second half needs.
Six analysts rate the shares a buy and two a hold, and all ten questions on the June call were about the new opportunities. None asked about the growth gap, the cash use or the new shares.
What would prove us wrong is plain: September-quarter sales growing back toward the promised pace.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Only ten questions fit the call's allotted time, and analysts may have raised the guidance gap or dilution in written notes not captured in the transcript; an unasked question on the call is not proof nobody has scrutinized it.
Management did not narrow, reaffirm or withdraw the $30-36 million guidance on the Q2 2026 call despite Q2 undershooting the pace needed; if a large order is already contracted for H2 delivery the gap could close without new bookings, but nothing filed discloses such a backlog.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- More new shares. Aeva has raised outside money every few months since 2023, and about 17 months of cash makes another raise likely.
- Insiders selling, none buying. 58 open-market sales and no purchases in a year, including about $9.7M by the two founders on two days in August.
- Few, unnamed customers. Two customers made up 40% and 19% of first-half sales, and neither is named.
- A short-seller's report. Fugazi Research called Aeva uninvestable in August, and every figure it used matches Aeva's own filings.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
Each raise had a stated strategic rationale - the LGIT partnership, the notes' long 2032 maturity, the follow-on funding the new optical-connectivity build-out - rather than being forced by an immediate cash shortfall, which could reflect opportunistic financing rather than dependency.
The estimate assumes gross cash use holds flat at the Q2 2026 rate; management said non-GAAP operating loss is targeted 'at similar levels to up slightly year over year' while revenue scales, which, if achieved, would extend rather than shorten the runway.
- 2026-10-04editedthe August 10-18 sales were misattributed: the $9.4 million was not six sales by a co-founder/CFO but eleven by the two co-founders (about $9.74 million) plus one by the CFO ($1.48 million), all under 10b5-1 plans, per the Form 4s (S38) and the pack's rows (S14)
What we still do not know
- Who the customers are. Three made up 64% of 2025 sales, and none is named.
- How many of the roughly 300,000 heavy trucks sold in North America each year will carry the new Bendix system, and from when.
- Whether the data-centre deal becomes an order. Management spoke of hundreds of millions of dollars a year on the call; no filing says so.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The figure is management's own unaudited estimate on a call, for a business with zero disclosed revenue to date and a first deployment eighteen months out; no analyst asked how it was derived and no per-unit pricing has been disclosed.
What would change our view
- Unattractive→AttractiveA named programme reaches volume, at a peer-like multiple
It needs all of:
- ○Daimler's self-driving trucks reach production, or the data-centre deal becomes a supply contract with a disclosed price and volume.watched as it happens
- ○The shares fall to about 16.5 times sales, where the other listed laser-sensor makers trade.about ≈$5.12 today, 64% below the last close
- Reopens the researchThe revenue guide is simply met
It needs:
- ○Full-year 2026 sales land inside the promised $30M to $36M, with Aeva still making a profit on what it sells.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
What is coming
- 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether revenue reaccelerates toward the $30M to $36M guide, which needs about $17.6M in the second half, and whether gross margin stays positive.
Every dated event ahead
- 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether revenue reaccelerates toward the $30M to $36M guide, which needs about $17.6M in the second half, and whether gross margin stays positive.
- 8 November 2026 Standby equity facility with Sylebra expires: Whether the undrawn $125M backstop is renewed, replaced or lapses, which sets how much funding sits behind about 17 months of cash.
- December 2026 Daimler Truck C-sample delivery: Whether the truck program stays on its 2026 schedule toward series production; a slip would push the first volume revenue further out.
- February 2027 Q4 and FY2026 results: Whether FY2026 lands inside the guided range, the first FY2027 outlook, and whether a permanent chief financial officer has been named.
- December 2027 Hyperscaler optical-connectivity initial deployment: Whether the development agreement becomes a supply contract with volume and price, the step management's hundreds-of-millions figure needs.
Since we wrote this
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe bet now names what it ridesThe owner asked that every bet name the macro trend behind it, after BWXT's bet was missing its chief executive's case for nuclear over gas.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
- 1 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Fair bet to Expensive betRe-priced at the 31 August close.
- 26 SepThesis reviewSales comparison is against four rivals, not five; view heldThe 16.5 times median Aeva is measured against leaves out Hesai, whose sales figure cannot be compared. Aeva is still over three times its rivals on sales and the dearest of all five on book value.
- 31 AugThesis writtenUnattractive, medium convictionWritten a month after June-quarter growth fell to 11.3%, with the shares still at about 50 times sales.
Also checked 3 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 39
Sources - 39
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-03-20product/technology description, competition (classes only), customer concentration, patents, LGIT JDA, cash flow statementbacksC01C11C14C17C18C21C34C39C57C58C62
- S02primarycompany filing2025-03an outside (competitor's own) disclosure of the multi-year automotive design-win lock-in mechanismbacksC02
- S03primarycompany filing2026-02-26FY2026 guidance, Daimler Truck/top-10 OEM/top-5 OEM/NVIDIA/Forterra announcements, full-year financialsbacksC03C04C05C06C19C21
- S04primarycompany filing2026-08-05Q2 2026 income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, Bendix/SICK/optical-connectivity announcements, CFO transitionbacksC05C07C08C10C19C22C24C27C43
- S05primarytranscript2026-08-05Aeva Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks + Q&A)alpha-vantage:AEVA:2026Q2hyperscaler deal sizing ('multiple hundreds of millions'), Bendix Class-8 truck market figure, gross cash use figure
It is available on most of the 300,000 Class 8 trucks that are sold annually in North America alone.
backsC07C08C09C10C15C16C19C30 - S06primarycompany filing2024-09-09Mobileye to End Internal Lidar Development Mobileye Global Inc.an outside, primary source for the threat that cheaper third-party time-of-flight LiDAR (and camera/radar) is displacing in-house FMCW development
substantial progress on our EyeQ6-based computer vision perception, increased clarity on the performance of our internally developed imaging radar, and continued better-than-expected cost reductions in third-party time-of-flight Lidar units
backsC12 - S07secondaryanalyst2026-08-21restated, widely-reported fact that Tesla's autonomy stack uses no LiDAR
Tesla...built its entire autonomy program on camera-based computer vision, explicitly rejecting lidar
backsC13 - S08primaryvendor data2026-08-31themes.json co-movement data for the LiDAR & 3D sensing theme, from the frozen research packinternal:data/reference/themes.json252-day correlation and return dispersion across theme membersbacksC20
- S09primaryvendor data2026-08-31vendor_fundamentals.quarterly_trend (FY2025 Q3/Q4 revenue), from the frozen research pack, cross-checked against the FY2025 8-Kinternal:data/cache/research/AEVA.jsonQ3 2025 and Q4 2025 revenue figures used in the H2-2026 guidance-gap calculation, both reconciled to the filed 8-K income statementsread, but no claim rests on it
- S10primarycompany filing2026-08-06share count, convertible note terms, warrant liability, SEPA facility terms, customer concentration, cash and liquiditybacksC49C26C28C29C30C34C39C57C58C62
- S11primaryvendor data2026-08-31market.price / technicals.levels, from the frozen research packinternal:data/cache/research/AEVA.jsoncurrent price and 252-day high/lowbacksC28
- S12secondaryanalyst2026-08-21the independent-scorer pressure-test channel: a short seller's specific, filing-checkable allegations
three customers accounted for 64% of 2025 revenue, two customers accounted for 72% of 2024 revenue
backsC33C34C35 - S13secondarynews2026-08-21measured price reaction to the Fugazi reportbacksC33
- S14primaryvendor data2026-08-31market.insider_trades (Form 4 transcription), from the frozen research packinternal:data/cache/research/AEVA.jsoninsider sale transaction codes, dates, prices and filer names for the trailing 365 daysbacksC35C36
- S15primaryvendor data2026-08-31market.short_interest (FINRA consolidated short interest), from the frozen research packinternal:data/cache/research/AEVA.jsonshort interest percent of float and days to cover as of the 2026-08-14 settlementbacksC37
- S16primarytranscript2026-08-05Aeva Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, question-and-answer sectionalpha-vantage:AEVA:2026Q2:qaall ten analyst questions and management's answersread, but no claim rests on it
- S17primaryvendor data2026-08-31segments (SEC XBRL segment instance), from the frozen research packinternal:data/cache/research/AEVA.jsonsingle-reportable-segment statusbacksC39
- S18primaryvendor data2026-08-31market tier (price, volatility, technicals), from the frozen research packinternal:data/cache/research/AEVA.jsonprice, 52-week range, volatility bucket, betabacksC42
- S19primaryvendor data2026-08-31market.analyst_estimates and market.consensus, from the frozen research packinternal:data/cache/research/AEVA.jsonanalyst buy/hold/sell counts and out-year revenue/EPS estimatesbacksC41
- S20primaryvendor data2026-08-31data/reference/competitors.json AEVA entry, and peer_valuation cohort in the frozen research packinternal:data/reference/competitors.jsonthe filed-competitor cohort (Ouster, Innoviz, Hesai, MicroVision, AEye) and its computed multiplesbacksC40C40b
- S21primarynews2024-01-09Daimler Truck and TORC Robotics Select Aeva to Supply Advanced 4D LiDAR Technology for Series-Production Autonomous Trucks Daimler Truck Holding AGthe customer's own confirmation of the relationship, its start date and its production-ramp timeline, with no exclusivity, volume or term disclosed
The multi-year collaboration begins in the first quarter of 2024 with Aeva's start of production by 2026 and Daimler Truck production ramp by 2027.
backsC05 - S22secondarynews2026-01an outside, industry-tracker-sourced base for U.S. Class 8 truck sales, independent of anything Aeva or Bendix said
208,155 trucks sold for the year 2025, representing a year-over-year decline of 13.4%
backsC44 - S23primarycompany filing2026-05-06Q1 2026 revenue and loss figures, the Nikon APDIS agreement, Daimler Truck/NVIDIA/Forterra/CityOS program updatesbacksC46C47
- S24primarycompany filing2026-06-03the $100 million (plus $15 million underwriter option) follow-on offering launch termsbacksC26
- S25primarycompany filing2026-06-03the exact offering price ($22.25/share), share count (4,494,382 plus a 674,157-share underwriter option) and closing datebacksC48
- S26primaryindustry data2025-06-27an independent analyst's 2030 automotive lidar market, the 2024 unit base, Chinese suppliers' 93% of passenger-car and 89% of total lidar, and Western OEMs keeping lidar to premium models; yolegroup.com answered HTTP 202 with no body, so the authorised reprint was read through press_fetch
The global LiDAR market for automotive is expected to quadruple by 2030. We see robust growth from $859 million in 2024 to $3.56 billion. This market evolution is definitely driven by rapid integration in passenger cars and continued R&D in autonomy-enabling features. In 2024 alone, over 1.6 million LiDAR units were shipped, more than doubling the previous year's volume.
backsC50 - S27secondaryindustry data2025-01-17MarketsandMarkets press release - Automotive LiDAR Market worth $9.59 billion in 2030 MarketsandMarketsa second, conflicting forecast for the same market and year, nearly three times Yole's; read through ir_fetch
Automotive LiDAR Market is projected to reach from USD 1.19 Billion in 2024 to USD 9.59 Billion in 2030, at a CAGR of 41.6% , according to a new report by MarketsandMarkets.
backsC51 - S28primarycompany filing2026-04-24the largest rival's units and average selling price: about 1,620,400 lidar units at about US$260 each in 2025, against 501,900 at about US$530 in 2024backsC52
- S29primarycompany filing2026-05-19Hesai named strategic lidar partner and confirmed supplier for Mercedes-Benz models enabling Level 3 autonomy, in Europe and China, produced in ThailandbacksC53
- S30primarycompany filing2026-08-18Hesai's quarterly scale: 628,275 lidar units shipped in Q2 2026 (485,904 ADAS) on net revenues of US$126.9 millionbacksC52
- S31primarycompany release2026-01-05Hesai press release - Hesai Announces Plan to Double Annual Lidar Production Capacity at CES 2026 Hesai Groupthe rival's capacity (over 4 million units a year in 2026), design wins at 24 OEMs including a top European OEM, and ATX orders above 4 million units; read through ir_fetch
Hesai Technology (NASDAQ: HSAI; HKEX: 2525), the global leader in lidar solutions, announced today that it will double its annual production capacity in 2026 - from 2 million units to over 4 million units - driven by accelerating demand for ADAS and robotics lidar.
backsC52C53 - S32primarycompany release2026-03-25RoboSense press release - RoboSense Beat Expectations, Achieved First-Ever Quarterly Profit on Strong Robotics Growth (FY2025 results) RoboSense Technology Co., Ltd.the second-largest rival's 2025 units and revenue, 33 design wins with 14 overseas and joint-venture brands, and planned capacity of four million units; RoboSense files in Hong Kong, not on EDGAR, so the wire copy was read through ir_fetch
For the full year of 2025, total LiDAR sales volume reached approximately 912,000 units, representing a year-over-year increase of 67.6%. The annual revenue was approximately RMB 1.94 billion, with the overall gross margin rising to 26.5%.
backsC52C53 - S33primarycompany filing2026-03Luminar Technologies, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 Luminar Technologiesthe Western rival's end: Volvo's written notice terminating its framework purchase agreement effective November 14, 2025, Chapter 11, and the sale of substantially all assets and cessation of operations from February 2026backsC53
- S34primarycompany release2025-07-16Aeva press release - Aeva to Accelerate Scaled Production of 4D LiDAR for Autonomous Trucks in Collaboration with Daimler Truck North America Aeva TechnologiesAeva's planned North American capacity of up to 200,000 units a year, funded in part by Daimler Truck North America; not filed on EDGAR (full-text search found no filing near the date), read through ir_fetch
In response to the growing demand for Aeva’s 4D LiDAR, Aeva plans to increase its production capacity to up to 200,000 LiDAR units annually, with the goal of supporting multiple customers including Daimler Truck for production of advanced sensing in autonomous vehicle applications.
backsC54 - S35primarytranscript2026-02-26Aeva Q4 2025 earnings call transcriptfmp:AEVA:2025Q4the installed automated line's 100,000-unit annual capacity, and the European award's scope: multiple vehicle model lines, exclusive outside China through the middle of next decade, target SOP 2028; read through transcript_fetch (FMP)
we successfully completed the final release for our Atlas product as well as the buildup of our automated final assembly line, which we expect to enable systems annual capacity to reach 100,000 units.
backsC54 - S36primarycompany filing2026-08-06the largest Western industrial lidar seller's scale and price: more than 17,000 lidar and camera sensors, about 53% lidar, on $53 million of product revenue in the quarterbacksC55
- S37primarycompany filing2026-04-29beneficial ownership as of March 31, 2026, director and officer biographies, the 2025 summary compensation table, employment agreements and bonus targets, the 2023 PSU milestones, the 2021 stockholders agreement, and the Sylebra financing and LG Innotek private placement as related-party transactionsbacksC59C60C61C62
- S38primarycompany filing2026-08-20the August 10-18, 2026 open-market sales by the chief executive, the chief technology officer and the chief financial officer, with the Rule 10b5-1 box checked on each (accessions 0001193125-26-347439, -347443 and -359631), read through scripts/insider_fetch.pybacksC36
- S39primarycompany filing2026-08-05Saurabh Sinha's resignation as chief financial officer effective September 5, 2026, and Rupesh Maheshwari's appointment as interim chief financial officer, with his background and salarybacksC59