← All thesesSITMNeutralMedium convictionThursday 22 October 2026עברית

SiTime

SiTime makes the tiny timing chips that keep data-centre links, phones and cars in step, built in silicon where most rivals still use quartz crystals.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑

Revenue up 127% in June on AI optics, but part of the next leg is bought, and 2023 fell 49%.

Business quality3/4 ↑

Sole volume MEMS timing maker with rising prices and long design-ins, but TI's BAW parts now chase the same sockets.

Financial position3/4 ↓

Net debt near $0.93B after the deal, but the notes pay nothing until 2031 and operations fund themselves.

Execution record3/4 →

Beat its own guides through the recovery and raised gross margin 8.9 points, but missed the 2023 inventory turn.

Per share capture2/4 ↓

Shares up 27% in 18 months, and stock pay near a fifth of revenue sits outside adjusted EPS.

Potential2/4 ↑

Optics growing 65% a year and a $450M module market, but sized by the seller and bought on cancellable orders.

Risk profile3/4 →

Three distributors take two thirds of sales and one Bosch fab makes the MEMS, but no single buyer dominates.

Valuation2/4 ↑

14 times run-rate sales still pays for the 30% plan for years, above what 2027 consensus models.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Revenue, margins, the deal and the debt are filed; the end-market split, market size and order book are management's.

The Verdict

We rate SiTime neutral. Its silicon timing chips are hard to replace once designed in and sales more than doubled on AI networking, but new shares and deal costs leave owners a mixed business rather than a strong one. The price is full: it assumes about 30% growth a year for several years, so a slowdown would hurt. There is no speculative bet here. The view hinges on whether buyers ordering a year ahead reflect real demand or stockpiling, the pattern that came before sales fell by half in 2023.

The long caseAI data centres add faster optical links, each needing more precise timing; SiTime must see that demand prove to be real use rather than customers stockpiling.

The evidence under this - 7 claims
C01facthigh confidence
SiTime designs timing chips: MEMS silicon resonators, the oscillators built on them, clock chips and timing software. It is fabless: Bosch and Teledyne make the MEMS wafers, TSMC and UMC the circuits, and most sales go through distributors.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C03facthigh confidence
June 2026 quarter revenue was $157.4M, up 127% on a year. Non-GAAP gross margin was 67.1% and operating margin 34.0%; GAAP operating income was $8.2M and GAAP net income $18.2M.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C20inferencemedium confidence
A timing part is changed only when its host is redesigned, because swapping it means requalifying a board that took up to three years to design in; so share moves with new designs, not with price.
derivedthe design and product cycle in the 10-K (C18), the requalification rule in AEC-Q200 (C19), and the fact that SiTime's gains arrived through new 800G and 1.6T module designs (C27)
against this
  • The same lock-in protects the quartz incumbents in every socket SiTime has not yet won, and TI's BAW parts and quartz oscillators are pin-compatible in many standard packages (C23).
  • In 2023 the lock-in did not stop revenue falling 49% (C14): it protects share, not volume.
current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C29estimatemedium confidence
At $509.20 and about 30.1M shares, SiTime is worth about $15.3B, and $16.3B with net debt: about 14 times September-quarter guided sales annualised ($1,160M) and 35 times guided non-GAAP operating profit annualised (about $459M).
derivedthe closing price in the pack (S14), the share count (C11), net debt (C10), and the guide's midpoints (C05): revenue $290M at 68% gross margin less $82.5M of opex, times four
against this
  • On trailing GAAP figures the multiple is far higher: the pack reads 40 times trailing sales on the old share count, and pro forma 2025 was a $217.1M loss (C34).
  • Run-rate is flattering in a growth year: a single strong quarter annualised overstates a year if the third quarter is a peak.
  1. 2026-10-22editedre-struck at the 2026-10-21 close of $509.20 (from $709.44) on the daily review's maintenance route -- drift -28.2%, past the 12% trigger. Guided sales, net debt, share count and 2027 consensus EPS held as struck on 2 October; no new print or filing since.
current state · 2026-10-22written 2026-10-04
C37inferencemedium confidence
The growth is real but order-led: buyers in an AI build-out, short of supply, are ordering a year ahead on cancellable orders, the pattern that ended in 2023's 49% fall.
derivedthe cancellable order book (C13), management's 12 to 18 months of lead time (C28), LightCounting's 30% supply shortfall (C26), and the 2023 reversal (C14)
against this
  • Management says channel inventory is at tight target levels with strong pull-through, which the 2022 build-up did not have (S05).
  • This time the growth is spread across all three end markets and the acquired business, not one shortage (C04, C07).
forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C38inferencemedium confidence
Owners took a 27% larger share count in 18 months, and reported earnings now carry about $230M a year of deal amortisation and over $120M of stock pay, so adjusted EPS overstates what each share earns.
derivedthe share count (C11), the amortisation schedule (C08) and stock pay running at $31.0M a quarter (C33)
against this

The 2025 share sale raised $433.1M at a fraction of today's price and funded the deal without more stock; the convertible's capped call offsets dilution up to $1,734.15.

current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C14facthigh confidence
Revenue fell 49% in 2023, to $144.0M from $283.6M, when customers worked down inventory bought in the 2021 to 2022 shortage.
historical · FY2023written 2026-10-04
01

The company

Every chip needs a clock: a part that ticks at an exact rate so data moves in step. For decades that part was a sliver of quartz crystal. SiTime makes it from silicon instead, using tiny vibrating structures called MEMS, which tolerate heat, shaking and small spaces better.

It designs the chips and pays others to make them: Bosch and Teledyne make the silicon parts, TSMC and UMC the circuits. Buyers are makers of optical network modules, phones, cars and factory gear, mostly through distributors.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C01facthigh confidence
SiTime designs timing chips: MEMS silicon resonators, the oscillators built on them, clock chips and timing software. It is fabless: Bosch and Teledyne make the MEMS wafers, TSMC and UMC the circuits, and most sales go through distributors.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C21facthigh confidence
Non-GAAP gross margin rose from 58.2% in the June 2025 quarter to 67.1% a year later; the 10-Q attributes the revenue rise mainly to higher average selling prices and a change in mix.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C23facthigh confidence
Texas Instruments sells the LMK6C, a low-jitter bulk-acoustic-wave oscillator for 1 to 200 MHz with 0.2 ps jitter, a non-quartz part aimed at the same sockets as MEMS.
current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04

How it makes money

SiTime sells parts by the piece. A buyer designs a SiTime clock into a product, then orders it for every unit built, for years. Most orders go through three distributors, which took 66% of sales in the June quarter, and buyers can cancel them with little notice.

Data-centre and network parts were $101M of June's $157.4M. Each sales dollar left about 67 cents after the cost of making the part, on the company's adjusted measure.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C03facthigh confidence
June 2026 quarter revenue was $157.4M, up 127% on a year. Non-GAAP gross margin was 67.1% and operating margin 34.0%; GAAP operating income was $8.2M and GAAP net income $18.2M.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C12facthigh confidence
Three distributors were 66% of June 2026 quarter revenue and the ten largest end customers 70%, up from 65% in 2025. Apple was 17% of 2025 revenue, from 22% in 2024.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C13facthigh confidence
Substantially all sales are on purchase orders that may be cancelled, reduced or rescheduled with little or no notice or penalty.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C04management claimmedium confidence
In the June 2026 quarter communications, enterprise and data-centre revenue was $101M, up 181%; automotive, industrial and defence $24.8M, up 51%; mobile, IoT and consumer $31.4M, up 85%, of which the large consumer customer was $22.8M.
against this

The split is given on the call and not filed; the 10-Q reports one segment, so these figures cannot be checked against a filing.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (Q2 2026)How it earns it
Communications, enterprise and data centre64%MEMS oscillators, clocks and resonators for optical modules, switches, servers and network gear, mostly through distributors.
Mobile, IoT and consumer20%Small resonators and oscillators for phones, wearables and devices; one large consumer customer was $22.8M of it.
Automotive, industrial and defence16%Rugged oscillators qualified for cars, factories and aerospace, where parts ship for a decade once designed in.
Acquired Renesas timing businessabout 29% of the September guideOver 550 clock products, mostly for data-centre and communications buyers, made by Renesas under a transition agreement.

Who runs it

Rajesh Vashist has run SiTime since 2007 and Elizabeth Howe its finances since 2023. Insiders own only about 1%; two big fund managers, an early backer and now Renesas each own far more. Most of the yearly bonus rides on sales growth and the performance shares on beating other chip stocks, while nothing pays on profit or on how much each share earns.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C44facthigh confidence
Rajesh Vashist has been president and chief executive since September 2007 and chairman since November 2019; Elizabeth Howe has been chief financial officer since November 2023, after 17 years at HP, latterly as its chief audit executive.
current state · 2026-03-31written 2026-10-04
C45facthigh confidence
On March 30, 2026 the 15 directors and executive officers owned 371,229 shares, 1.4% of 26,396,828 outstanding; Rajesh Vashist 210,696, 1.0%. MegaChips held 13.0%, FMR 12.7% and BlackRock 10.7%. Renesas received 3,558,691 shares on July 1.
against this

MegaChips sold 400,000 shares in May 2026 and the chief executive sold 12,000 in September (C34), and the Renesas issue enlarged the count, so every percentage is now lower.

current state · 2026-03-30written 2026-10-04
C46facthigh confidence
SiTime's 2025 bonus paid 70% on a GAAP revenue goal of $283.0M and 30% on individual goals, settled in RSUs, and paid 200% of target. Equity is four-year RSUs plus PRSUs on three-year total return against the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, 65% of the CEO's 2025 grant. 2026 adds a cash bonus for revenue above the maximum.
against this
  • The 2025 revenue goal of $283.0M sat below 2022's $283.6M (C14), and no metric pays on GAAP profit, cash or per-share results, so the dilution in C11 costs the plan nothing.
  • Above-target payout is capped at 150% if non-GAAP operating income is zero or less.
historical · 2025 plan, with the 2026 changeswritten 2026-10-04
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Choosing a clock takes a buyer six months to three years of design and testing. Once chosen, it stays for the product's life, often ten years, because swapping it means testing the whole board again. Car makers must formally requalify a part whenever its supplier changes it.

So SiTime wins share when new products are designed, not by cutting prices. The proof is that its prices rose: the cut it keeps from each sales dollar went from 58 cents to 67 cents in a year.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C18facthigh confidence
A design cycle runs six months to three years from first engagement to volume, and products then ship for up to ten years or more.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C19facthigh confidence
The car industry's qualification standard requires a component to be requalified whenever its supplier changes the part or its process in a way that affects form, fit, function, quality or reliability.
current state · 2023-03-20written 2026-10-04
C20inferencemedium confidence
A timing part is changed only when its host is redesigned, because swapping it means requalifying a board that took up to three years to design in; so share moves with new designs, not with price.
derivedthe design and product cycle in the 10-K (C18), the requalification rule in AEC-Q200 (C19), and the fact that SiTime's gains arrived through new 800G and 1.6T module designs (C27)
against this
  • The same lock-in protects the quartz incumbents in every socket SiTime has not yet won, and TI's BAW parts and quartz oscillators are pin-compatible in many standard packages (C23).
  • In 2023 the lock-in did not stop revenue falling 49% (C14): it protects share, not volume.
current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C21facthigh confidence
Non-GAAP gross margin rose from 58.2% in the June 2025 quarter to 67.1% a year later; the 10-Q attributes the revenue rise mainly to higher average selling prices and a change in mix.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04

The threat

Quartz makers in Taiwan and Japan, such as TXC and Seiko Epson, still sell most of the world's timing parts. The newer threat is Texas Instruments, which sells a non-quartz clock using a different vibrating technology aimed at the same high-speed sockets. Skyworks, Diodes and Microchip also sell timing, though for each it is a small side line.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C22facthigh confidence
SiTime's own 10-K names as competitors the quartz makers TXC, Seiko Epson, Nihon Dempa Kogyo, Daishinku, Kyocera, Murata and Rakon, plus Abracon, Diodes, Microchip, Skyworks, Texas Instruments and Renesas.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C23facthigh confidence
Texas Instruments sells the LMK6C, a low-jitter bulk-acoustic-wave oscillator for 1 to 200 MHz with 0.2 ps jitter, a non-quartz part aimed at the same sockets as MEMS.
current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C24facthigh confidence
Skyworks sells precision timing it says AI networks need more of; Diodes sells crystals and crystal oscillators; Microchip sells timing systems. In all three timing is a small unreported line.
current state · 2026-05-21written 2026-10-04

The rivals: TXN, SWKS, DIOD, MCHP, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
TXC, Seiko Epson and Nihon Dempa Kogyo quartz oscillatorsPriced against it: Listed abroadSiTime products (MEMS resonators, oscillators and clocks)On saleListed abroad
TXNTexas Instruments LMK6 bulk-acoustic-wave oscillatorsPriced against it: Different productSiTime products (MEMS resonators, oscillators and clocks)On saleDifferent product
SWKSSkyworks timing (the former Silicon Labs clock and oscillator line)Priced against it: Small part of itTiming Products Division (acquired from Renesas)On saleSmall part of it
DIOD · MCHPDiodes and Microchip crystals, oscillators and timing chipsPriced against it: Small part of itTiming Products Division (acquired from Renesas)On saleSmall part of it
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

The fastest-growing market is optical modules, the parts that carry data between AI servers as light. An industry research firm, LightCounting, measured that market up 93% in 2024 and forecasts 65% growth in 2026.

SiTime puts its own slice of it, timing inside the fastest modules, at $450M in 2027. That is the seller's estimate. With the Renesas business, SiTime is selling at about $1.16B a year today.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C05management claimmedium confidence
For the September 2026 quarter SiTime guided revenue of $285M to $295M, of which $200M to $210M from its own products and about $85M from the acquired business, non-GAAP gross margin near 68%, and non-GAAP EPS of $3.50 to $3.65 on about 32.8M shares.
against this

The own-product guide of $200M to $210M is a 30% rise in one quarter, the largest in the company's record; the 2022 quarters before the 2023 fall also rose on customer orders placed far ahead (C14).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C07facthigh confidence
The acquired timing business had revenue of $207.7M in 2025. In the June 2026 quarter it sold $83.7M, up 66% from $50.3M, with $18.3M of cost of sales before amortisation.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C26facthigh confidence
LightCounting measured the Ethernet optical transceiver market up 93% in 2024, estimates 82% for 2025 and forecasts 65% for 2026, with demand exceeding supply by 30%.
historical · 2024-2026written 2026-10-04
C27management claimmedium confidence
Management puts timing in 800G and 1.6T optical modules at $450M of serviceable market in 2027, where it says SiTime has significant share, and says synchronization adds several hundred dollars of content per data-centre rack.
against this

No outside body publishes timing content per module or per rack; the figures are the seller's, and the share is not quantified.

forwardwritten 2026-10-04

Who has signed

Almost nothing is signed. Apple, 17% of 2025 sales, buys under an agreement that sets terms but promises no volume. Everyone else orders piece by piece on orders they can cancel, and a deal to put SiTime's parts into Renesas's chips is still only being explored.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C13facthigh confidence
Substantially all sales are on purchase orders that may be cancelled, reduced or rescheduled with little or no notice or penalty.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C40facthigh confidence
Apple buys through distributors under a development and supply agreement that sets a framework but carries no volume and runs until either side terminates for breach.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C41facthigh confidence
Renesas and SiTime signed a memorandum to explore putting SiTime's MEMS resonators into Renesas's embedded processors.
current state · 2026-07-01written 2026-10-04
Where the growth is coming from, business by business

Where the growth is coming from

BusinessShare of revenueGrowth: last quarterLast half-yearLast yearShare in 3 years at its half-year rate
Reportable Segment100%+126.5%+108.8%-100%
Whole company100%+126.5%+108.8%-100%

On the filed split through 2026-06-30, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 109% next year and 109% in year 3, against 83.0% over the last twelve months. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.

How we read it: Neither: the 108.8% blend extrapolates one AI-driven quarter, and the score reads the 30% path management gives, which consensus already models.

04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Fast

Sales grew 83% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 61% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $219MDec 2022: $284MDec 2023: $144MDec 2024: $203MDec 2025: $327M12 mo to Jun 2026: $468M$219M$468M
Is it profitable?Losing

Operating margin is −3.9%, up from −74% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: 15%Dec 2022: 5.7%Dec 2023: −74%Dec 2024: −57%Dec 2025: −21%12 mo to Jun 2026: −3.9%15%−3.9%
Does growth pay off?Pays off

Running costs take 63¢ of each sales dollar, up from 49¢ in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 49¢Dec 2022: 59¢Dec 2023: 131¢Dec 2024: 108¢Dec 2025: 74¢12 mo to Jun 2026: 63¢49¢63¢
Does it earn good returns?Poor

The capital put into the business loses 1.7% a year after tax, down from 8.8% in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 8.8%Dec 2022: 2.4%12 mo to Jun 2026: −1.7%8.8%−1.7%
Is it making cash?Strong

It turned 18% of sales into free cash, $84.5M over the last twelve months.

Dec 2021: $28.2MDec 2022: $7.96MDec 2023: −$889KDec 2024: −$13.0MDec 2025: $35.1M12 mo to Jun 2026: $84.5M$28.2M$84.5M
How steady is it?Swingy

Yearly sales growth has ranged from −49% to +88% over the last 5 years, with sales falling in 1 of them.

Dec 2021: +88%Dec 2022: +30%Dec 2023: −49%Dec 2024: +41%Dec 2025: +61%+88%+61%
Are shares being diluted?Diluting

The share count rose 30% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 24% of sales.

Dec 2021: 21.1MDec 2022: 22.7MDec 2023: 22.2MDec 2024: 23.1MDec 2025: 25.0M12 mo to Jun 2026: 27.5M21.1M27.5M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$219M$284M$144M$203M$327M$468M
Sales growth+88%+30%−49%+41%+61%+83%
Profit
Gross margin64%65%57%52%54%59%
Operating margin15%5.7%−74%−57%−21%−3.9%
Net margin15%8.2%−56%−46%−13%3.0%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development24%32%68%53%36%27%
Selling, general and admin25%27%58%50%36%31%
Pay in shares14%20%53%46%32%24%
Capital spending14%11%6.2%18%16%9.2%
Cash
Cash from operations$59.1M$39.8M$8.06M$23.2M$87.2M$128M
Free cash flow$28.2M$7.96M−$889K−$13.0M$35.1M$84.5M
Returns and shares
Return on capital8.8%2.4%---−1.7%
Shares (diluted)21.1M22.7M22.2M23.1M25.0M27.5M

What growth costs

Growth is making SiTime more profitable again: since the 2023 slump, sales have tripled while research and selling costs grew far less. But those costs are still a bigger slice of each sales dollar than in 2021, and a sales drop would reverse the gain, as 2023 showed.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C49facthigh confidence
Per sales dollar, R&D was 23.8 cents in 2021, 67.8 in 2023, 36.4 in 2025 and 27.2 over the year to June 2026; selling, general and administrative 24.9, 58.3, 35.7 and 31.3; stock pay 13.7, 53.3, 31.7 and 24.4. From 2023 R&D dollars rose 30% while revenue rose 3.2 times.
against this
  • Every line is still above its 2021 share of sales, and GAAP operating margin over the year to June 2026 was minus 3.9% against plus 15.0% in 2021.
  • In 2023, when revenue fell 49% (C14), R&D rose to 67.8 cents per sales dollar, so the leverage runs both ways.
historical · 2021 to the four quarters to June 2026written 2026-10-04
C14facthigh confidence
Revenue fell 49% in 2023, to $144.0M from $283.6M, when customers worked down inventory bought in the 2021 to 2022 shortage.
historical · FY2023written 2026-10-04

The last report (5 Aug)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

127%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
38.6%
Growth from the quarter before
against 0.2% the quarter before that
5¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

In the June 2026 quarter, the last before the Renesas business joined, sales rose 127% to $157.4M. Data-centre and network parts rose 181%, so AI networking did most of the work.

It also kept more of each dollar: about 67 cents after making the part, up from 58 a year earlier. Reported profit was much smaller than the adjusted figure, because stock paid to staff counts as a cost there.

For the September quarter, the first with Renesas's business, it guided sales of $285M to $295M.

What it did to the thesisIt proved the AI demand and the pricing power are real, and showed the margin still rising. It left open the central question: whether buyers ordering a year ahead are building products or building stockpiles.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $2.34 against $1.95 expected; $0.66 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C03facthigh confidence
June 2026 quarter revenue was $157.4M, up 127% on a year. Non-GAAP gross margin was 67.1% and operating margin 34.0%; GAAP operating income was $8.2M and GAAP net income $18.2M.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C04management claimmedium confidence
In the June 2026 quarter communications, enterprise and data-centre revenue was $101M, up 181%; automotive, industrial and defence $24.8M, up 51%; mobile, IoT and consumer $31.4M, up 85%, of which the large consumer customer was $22.8M.
against this

The split is given on the call and not filed; the 10-Q reports one segment, so these figures cannot be checked against a filing.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C21facthigh confidence
Non-GAAP gross margin rose from 58.2% in the June 2025 quarter to 67.1% a year later; the 10-Q attributes the revenue rise mainly to higher average selling prices and a change in mix.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C05management claimmedium confidence
For the September 2026 quarter SiTime guided revenue of $285M to $295M, of which $200M to $210M from its own products and about $85M from the acquired business, non-GAAP gross margin near 68%, and non-GAAP EPS of $3.50 to $3.65 on about 32.8M shares.
against this

The own-product guide of $200M to $210M is a 30% rise in one quarter, the largest in the company's record; the 2022 quarters before the 2023 fall also rose on customer orders placed far ahead (C14).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
What management did with the money

Management bought Renesas's timing business for about $4.0B, paying $1.50B in cash and 3.56M new shares. To fund it, SiTime borrowed $1.35B through bonds that pay no interest but can turn into shares above $1,040 each.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 2 purchases and 16 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C06facthigh confidence
On 1 July 2026 SiTime bought Renesas's timing business for $1,499.3M in cash and 3,558,691 new shares, valued at $2,504.7M at $703.84, about $4.0B in all.
historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-04
C09facthigh confidence
In May 2026 SiTime sold $1,350M of 0% convertible notes due June 2031, convertible at $1,040.47 a share, with a capped call to $1,734.15 that cost $121.5M. A $200M secured revolver is undrawn, with a net leverage cap of 4.5 times stepping down to 3.5 times.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C11facthigh confidence
Shares outstanding rose from 23.6M at the end of 2024 to 26.5M in June 2026, including a $433.1M share sale in 2025, and to about 30.1M with the 3,558,691 issued to Renesas. The September quarter guide uses about 32.8M diluted.
current state · 2026-07-01written 2026-10-04
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Full. The price pays for growth near 30% a year for several more years, more than analysts' own forecasts for 2027 yet assume.

Share price
$709.44
close,
Company value for each $1 of sales
38.7
its 6-year normal 20.8

The shares rose 139.9% in the year to 2 October, and more than half of that came from buyers paying more for each dollar of sales rather than from sales themselves. They have since fallen 28% with no news of the company.

On 4 November SiTime reports its first quarter with the Renesas business inside, which tests whether the combined company grows as guided. In February 2027 its wafer agreement with Bosch, the only maker of its silicon parts, comes up for renewal.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C31facthigh confidence
The shares rose 139.9% over the past year: sales per share explain 59.3% and a higher multiple the rest. The year's range was $243.68 to $901.81.
historical · 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C06facthigh confidence
On 1 July 2026 SiTime bought Renesas's timing business for $1,499.3M in cash and 3,558,691 new shares, valued at $2,504.7M at $703.84, about $4.0B in all.
historical · Q3 2026written 2026-10-04
C05management claimmedium confidence
For the September 2026 quarter SiTime guided revenue of $285M to $295M, of which $200M to $210M from its own products and about $85M from the acquired business, non-GAAP gross margin near 68%, and non-GAAP EPS of $3.50 to $3.65 on about 32.8M shares.
against this

The own-product guide of $200M to $210M is a 30% rise in one quarter, the largest in the company's record; the 2022 quarters before the 2023 fall also rose on customer orders placed far ahead (C14).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C15facthigh confidence
Bosch makes most MEMS wafers under a ten-year supply agreement running to February 2027 and renewing automatically; Bosch's patent licence to SiTime expires between 2025 and 2029.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
How we read the multiple

Counting its debt, the whole company is valued at about $16.3B. For that to make sense:

  1. Guided September-quarter sales of $290M, times four, are about $1.16B a year.
  2. The price is about 14 times that, and about 35 times the adjusted profit those sales earn.
  3. Analysts expect $14.92 of adjusted profit a share in 2027, barely above today's pace of $14.30.
  4. So the price assumes growth beyond what even the forecasts include.

Against its own history. Buyers usually paid much less for each dollar of its sales, and the gap is a bet on the AI years lasting.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C29estimatemedium confidence
At $509.20 and about 30.1M shares, SiTime is worth about $15.3B, and $16.3B with net debt: about 14 times September-quarter guided sales annualised ($1,160M) and 35 times guided non-GAAP operating profit annualised (about $459M).
derivedthe closing price in the pack (S14), the share count (C11), net debt (C10), and the guide's midpoints (C05): revenue $290M at 68% gross margin less $82.5M of opex, times four
against this
  • On trailing GAAP figures the multiple is far higher: the pack reads 40 times trailing sales on the old share count, and pro forma 2025 was a $217.1M loss (C34).
  • Run-rate is flattering in a growth year: a single strong quarter annualised overstates a year if the third quarter is a peak.
  1. 2026-10-22editedre-struck at the 2026-10-21 close of $509.20 (from $709.44) on the daily review's maintenance route -- drift -28.2%, past the 12% trigger. Guided sales, net debt, share count and 2027 consensus EPS held as struck on 2 October; no new print or filing since.
current state · 2026-10-22written 2026-10-04
C39estimatemedium confidence
Analysts' 2027 EPS of $14.92 is barely above the guided September quarter annualised ($14.30), so at 34.1 times 2027 EPS the price still asks for growth that consensus does not yet model.
derivedconsensus (C30), the guide's EPS midpoint times four (C05), and the price (C29)
against this

Consensus may simply be stale: seven analysts, several of whom had not rebuilt for the acquisition; a refreshed 2027 near $18 would put the multiple near 28.

  1. 2026-10-22editedre-struck at the 2026-10-21 close of $509.20 (from $709.44) on the daily review's maintenance route -- drift -28.2%, past the 12% trigger. Guided sales, net debt, share count and 2027 consensus EPS held as struck on 2 October; no new print or filing since.
forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C30factmedium confidence
Analysts expect 2026 sales of $875M and adjusted profit of $11.22 a share, 2027 sales of $1,353M and $14.92 a share, and $20.06 a share in 2028. Nine rate it a buy and none a sell.
current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C28management claimmedium confidence
The chief executive told investors to expect about 30% a year growth over five to eight years, said customers now order 12 to 18 months ahead, and said 2027 shows no sign of slowing.
against this

Orders placed 12 to 18 months ahead are cancellable (C13), and the last long-lead ordering in 2021 to 2022 was followed by a 49% fall (C14).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C05management claimmedium confidence
For the September 2026 quarter SiTime guided revenue of $285M to $295M, of which $200M to $210M from its own products and about $85M from the acquired business, non-GAAP gross margin near 68%, and non-GAAP EPS of $3.50 to $3.65 on about 32.8M shares.
against this

The own-product guide of $200M to $210M is a 30% rise in one quarter, the largest in the company's record; the 2022 quarters before the 2023 fall also rose on customer orders placed far ahead (C14).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
Priced against its rivals

None of the listed rivals above sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. Skyworks Solutions, Diodes Incorporated and Microchip Technology Incorporated do too, but as a small part of much bigger companies, so their price says little about this one. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: TXC Corporation, Seiko Epson Corporation, Nihon Dempa Kogyo Co., Ltd., Daishinku Corp., Kyocera Corporation, Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd., Rakon Limited, Abracon, LLC, Renesas Electronics Corporation.

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

SiTime is a scarce AI winner, replacing quartz in every network link, with Renesas making it the whole timing supplier.

We believe

The franchise is real. The price already assumes the year-ahead orders are all real demand.

In 2021 buyers also ordered far ahead during a chip shortage. The shares then fell 73%, and in 2023 sales fell 49% as customers used up their stockpiles. Today's orders are again long and cancellable.

The evidence against us: own-product sales that keep rising every quarter through 2027 with the margin holding would show the demand is end use.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
91%
of 11, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
100%
of 9, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C30factmedium confidence
Analysts expect 2026 sales of $875M and adjusted profit of $11.22 a share, 2027 sales of $1,353M and $14.92 a share, and $20.06 a share in 2028. Nine rate it a buy and none a sell.
current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C28management claimmedium confidence
The chief executive told investors to expect about 30% a year growth over five to eight years, said customers now order 12 to 18 months ahead, and said 2027 shows no sign of slowing.
against this

Orders placed 12 to 18 months ahead are cancellable (C13), and the last long-lead ordering in 2021 to 2022 was followed by a 49% fall (C14).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C37inferencemedium confidence
The growth is real but order-led: buyers in an AI build-out, short of supply, are ordering a year ahead on cancellable orders, the pattern that ended in 2023's 49% fall.
derivedthe cancellable order book (C13), management's 12 to 18 months of lead time (C28), LightCounting's 30% supply shortfall (C26), and the 2023 reversal (C14)
against this
  • Management says channel inventory is at tight target levels with strong pull-through, which the 2022 build-up did not have (S05).
  • This time the growth is spread across all three end markets and the acquired business, not one shortage (C04, C07).
forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C14facthigh confidence
Revenue fell 49% in 2023, to $144.0M from $283.6M, when customers worked down inventory bought in the 2021 to 2022 shortage.
historical · FY2023written 2026-10-04
C32facthigh confidence
The shares closed November 2021 near $298 and fell to $79 by September 2022, a 73% fall, a year before the 2023 downturn showed in its results.
historical · 2021-11 to 2022-09written 2026-10-04
C39estimatemedium confidence
Analysts' 2027 EPS of $14.92 is barely above the guided September quarter annualised ($14.30), so at 34.1 times 2027 EPS the price still asks for growth that consensus does not yet model.
derivedconsensus (C30), the guide's EPS midpoint times four (C05), and the price (C29)
against this

Consensus may simply be stale: seven analysts, several of whom had not rebuilt for the acquisition; a refreshed 2027 near $18 would put the multiple near 28.

  1. 2026-10-22editedre-struck at the 2026-10-21 close of $509.20 (from $709.44) on the daily review's maintenance route -- drift -28.2%, past the 12% trigger. Guided sales, net debt, share count and 2027 consensus EPS held as struck on 2 October; no new print or filing since.
forwardwritten 2026-10-04
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • Stockpiling, again Buyers order 12 to 18 months ahead on cancellable orders; if supply catches up they could stop ordering, as in 2023.
  • One wafer maker Bosch makes most of its silicon parts under an agreement ending February 2027; a worse renewal would hit costs or supply.
  • Owners' share shrinks Shares outstanding rose 27% in 18 months, and adjusted profit leaves out stock pay and about $230M a year of deal costs.
  • Few distributors Three distributors took 66% of June-quarter sales, so one changing its stock levels moves the quarter.
  • The acquired factories Renesas still makes the acquired parts for several quarters and the business is short of supply.
  • Insiders selling The chief executive sold 12,000 shares outside a trading plan in September, and no insider bought in a year.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C37inferencemedium confidence
The growth is real but order-led: buyers in an AI build-out, short of supply, are ordering a year ahead on cancellable orders, the pattern that ended in 2023's 49% fall.
derivedthe cancellable order book (C13), management's 12 to 18 months of lead time (C28), LightCounting's 30% supply shortfall (C26), and the 2023 reversal (C14)
against this
  • Management says channel inventory is at tight target levels with strong pull-through, which the 2022 build-up did not have (S05).
  • This time the growth is spread across all three end markets and the acquired business, not one shortage (C04, C07).
forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C14facthigh confidence
Revenue fell 49% in 2023, to $144.0M from $283.6M, when customers worked down inventory bought in the 2021 to 2022 shortage.
historical · FY2023written 2026-10-04
C15facthigh confidence
Bosch makes most MEMS wafers under a ten-year supply agreement running to February 2027 and renewing automatically; Bosch's patent licence to SiTime expires between 2025 and 2029.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C38inferencemedium confidence
Owners took a 27% larger share count in 18 months, and reported earnings now carry about $230M a year of deal amortisation and over $120M of stock pay, so adjusted EPS overstates what each share earns.
derivedthe share count (C11), the amortisation schedule (C08) and stock pay running at $31.0M a quarter (C33)
against this

The 2025 share sale raised $433.1M at a fraction of today's price and funded the deal without more stock; the convertible's capped call offsets dilution up to $1,734.15.

current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C11facthigh confidence
Shares outstanding rose from 23.6M at the end of 2024 to 26.5M in June 2026, including a $433.1M share sale in 2025, and to about 30.1M with the 3,558,691 issued to Renesas. The September quarter guide uses about 32.8M diluted.
current state · 2026-07-01written 2026-10-04
C12facthigh confidence
Three distributors were 66% of June 2026 quarter revenue and the ten largest end customers 70%, up from 65% in 2025. Apple was 17% of 2025 revenue, from 22% in 2024.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C17management claimmedium confidence
Renesas still makes and tests the acquired products under a transition services agreement for the next several quarters, and the business is short of supply.
against this

Management also says the business is beating the $300M first-year figure it gave at announcement; a supply constraint and a beat can both be true.

current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-04
C34facthigh confidence
Insiders made no open-market purchases in a year. The chief executive sold 12,000 shares at $603.47 on 9 September 2026 outside a trading plan, and MegaChips, an early holder, sold 400,000 shares in November 2025 and again in May 2026.
historical · 2025-10 to 2026-09written 2026-10-04
What we still do not know
  • How many timing parts sit in each AI network module or server rack, and at what price; nobody outside the company publishes it.
  • Whether Bosch renews the wafer agreement on the same terms in February 2027.
  • What the Renesas business earns on its own once it leaves Renesas's factories and shared costs.
  • How much of the year-ahead orders is real demand rather than buyers securing scarce parts.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C27management claimmedium confidence
Management puts timing in 800G and 1.6T optical modules at $450M of serviceable market in 2027, where it says SiTime has significant share, and says synchronization adds several hundred dollars of content per data-centre rack.
against this

No outside body publishes timing content per module or per rack; the figures are the seller's, and the share is not quantified.

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C42inferencemedium confidence
SiTime touches only the timing parts in a module or rack, a small share of its cost; it does not sell lasers, signal processors or switches.
derivedthe product list (C01) against the module market LightCounting measures (C26)
against this

Management argues timing moves into chiplets and substrates, a $2.5B addition by 2030, which would raise the share (S05).

current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C15facthigh confidence
Bosch makes most MEMS wafers under a ten-year supply agreement running to February 2027 and renewing automatically; Bosch's patent licence to SiTime expires between 2025 and 2029.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C17management claimmedium confidence
Renesas still makes and tests the acquired products under a transition services agreement for the next several quarters, and the business is short of supply.
against this

Management also says the business is beating the $300M first-year figure it gave at announcement; a supply constraint and a beat can both be true.

current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-04
C37inferencemedium confidence
The growth is real but order-led: buyers in an AI build-out, short of supply, are ordering a year ahead on cancellable orders, the pattern that ended in 2023's 49% fall.
derivedthe cancellable order book (C13), management's 12 to 18 months of lead time (C28), LightCounting's 30% supply shortfall (C26), and the 2023 reversal (C14)
against this
  • Management says channel inventory is at tight target levels with strong pull-through, which the 2022 build-up did not have (S05).
  • This time the growth is spread across all three end markets and the acquired business, not one shortage (C04, C07).
forwardwritten 2026-10-04

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveThe price returns to its usual multiple

    It needs:

    • ○The whole company's value falls to 12 times its current yearly sales pace, from about 14.about ≈$442.78 today, 38% below the last close
  2. Neutral→AttractiveSales outrun the path the price assumes

    It needs:

    • ○Quarterly sales, including the Renesas business, reach $450M.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
  3. Neutral→UnattractiveThe order cycle turns

    It needs any of:

    • ○The adjusted cut kept from each sales dollar after making the part falls below 63 cents.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
    • ○Unsold stock rises above $180M while quarterly sales fall.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
We would also be wrong if
  • Bosch does not renew the wafer agreement on similar terms by February 2027.
  • The Renesas business sells less than $75M in a quarter while Renesas still makes its parts.

What is coming

  • 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Revenue against the $285M to $295M guide, own products at $200M or more, the acquired business near $85M, gross margin near 68%, and whether December grows again.
Every dated event ahead
  • 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Revenue against the $285M to $295M guide, own products at $200M or more, the acquired business near $85M, gross margin near 68%, and whether December grows again.
  • February 2027 Bosch MEMS supply agreement reaches the end of its ten-year term: Whether the renewal management called 'zero problems' is filed on similar terms, or the sole MEMS wafer source becomes a negotiation.
  • February 2027 Q4 2026 results and the 2026 10-K: Whether orders placed 12 to 18 months ahead hold into 2027, and the first full quarter's amortisation and supply from the acquired business.
  • April 2027 2027 proxy statement: What the 2026 bonus and its new above-maximum cash award paid, and whether any metric starts to reward profit or per-share results.
Since we wrote this
Written
4 Oct
Price the thesis read
$709.44
2 Oct
  • 22 OctPrice movePrice re-struck, -28.2%; view heldNo print or news since 2 October. The company is valued at about 14 times sales rather than 19, still paying for years of 30% growth.
  • 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
  • 4 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten a month before the first print to include the Renesas clock business, with the shares up 140% in a year.
  • 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.

Also checked 2 times with nothing new to act on.

Sources 17

Where this came from

Sources - 17

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-11
    Item 1 (products, MEMS process, foundries, Bosch agreement and licence, competitors), customer and distributor concentration, design cycle, the 2023 inventory adjustment
    backsC01C02C12C14C15C18C22C47C49C50
  2. S02primarycompany release2026-02-04
    2025 revenue, GAAP and non-GAAP profit, year-end cash
    Net revenue for fiscal year 2025 was $326.7 million, an increase of 61% from $202.7 million in fiscal year 2024.
    backsC02
  3. S03primarycompany filing2026-08-06
    income statement, balance sheet, equity statement, convertible notes and capped call, concentration, cancellable orders, Apple agreement, ASP and mix
    backsC03C09C11C12C13C21C40C47C49
  4. S04primarycompany release2026-08-05
    the quarter on both bases, the non-GAAP reconciliation, stock pay, the June balance sheet
    Q2 Net Revenue Increased 127% to $157.4 Million
    backsC03C21C33
  5. S05primarytranscript2026-08-05
    Q2 2026 earnings call transcript
    the end-market split, the September guide, management's market sizes and growth path; the questions from Needham, Stifel, UBS, Wolfe, Goldman Sachs and Roth on the acquisition, Bosch and gross margin
    For the third quarter, we expect revenue of $285 million to $295 million
    backsC04C05C11C16C17C25C27C28
  6. S06primarycompany filing2026-07-01
    the price paid, the revolver and its covenants, Renesas's registration rights and board seat, the MEMS memorandum, 550 clock products
    backsC06C09C11C17C25C35C41C43C45
  7. S07primarycompany filing2026-09-09
    the acquired business's revenue and direct costs, the purchase-price allocation, the amortisation schedule, the pro forma 2025 loss
    backsC06C07C08C33
  8. S08primaryother2023-03-20
    the car industry's rule that changing a qualified component costs the buyer a requalification; quartz crystals carry their own stress table
    Requalification of a component or family shall be required when the supplier makes a change to the component or family and/or process that impact the form, fit, function, quality and reliability of the component or family.
    backsC19
  9. S09primaryother2026-10-04
    a silicon-based, non-MEMS oscillator from a far larger chipmaker, its frequency range and jitter
    Low-jitter, high-performance, bulk-acoustic-wave (BAW) fixed-frequency LVCMOS oscillator
    backsC23
  10. S10primarycompany filing2025-11-07
    a rival's own account of AI demand for precision timing
    backsC24
  11. S11primarycompany filing2026-02-10
    frequency control products: crystals and crystal oscillators for the same buyers
    backsC24
  12. S12primarycompany filing2026-05-21
    timing systems as a small unreported line
    backsC24
  13. S13primaryindustry data2026-04
    the growth of the optical module market SiTime's data-centre timing rides, measured by a tracker with no stake in SiTime; also that demand exceeds supply by 30%
    The Ethernet transceiver market was up 93% in 2024 and our latest estimates for 2025 suggest another 82% growth. We now forecast 65% growth for 2026
    backsC26
  14. S14secondaryvendor data2026-10-04
    Research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, frozen 2026-10-04)
    price, range, decomposition, consensus estimates and ratings, short interest, the annual revenue series
    backsC14C30C31C32C36C43
  15. S15primarycompany filing2026-09-14
    every open-market sale and its Rule 10b5-1 flag
    backsC34
  16. S16primarycompany filing2026-04-15
    executive officers and their start dates, beneficial ownership as of March 30, 2026, the 2025 bonus plan and its revenue goal, the RSU and relative-TSR PRSU grants, the 2026 plan
    backsC44C45C46
  17. S17primarycompany filing2023-02-27
    the 2020 to 2022 income statements: revenue, R&D and selling, general and administrative expense
    backsC49
Rendered from content/SITM/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-22. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.