← All thesesMUNeutralMedium convictionThursday 1 October 2026עברית

Micron Technology

Micron makes the memory chips that computers, phones and AI servers use to hold and store data, and it is one of only three big makers.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑

Revenue rose 256% in fiscal 2026 without acquisitions, but mostly on shortage prices while its share of DRAM revenue barely moved.

Business quality2/4 ↑

Scale shared by three firms, but once qualified the chips are interchangeable; fiscal 2023 lost money, Samsung leads HBM4 and CXMT gains.

Financial position4/4 ↑

Net cash of $68.3B, $62.3B of free cash flow in fiscal 2026 and $5.18B of debt; nothing in the plan needs outside money.

Execution record3/4 ↑

Beat the top of guidance through fiscal 2026, but the record includes building into the fiscal 2023 glut that cost $5.75B.

Per share capture3/4 →

Shares outstanding rose 0.6% in a year and stock pay is small, but buybacks barely offset it until the CHIPS limits lapse.

Potential3/4 ↑

About $150B of take-or-pay revenue is claimed and $12.7B of deposits paid, but the floors and most revenue after 2027 are unfiled.

Risk profile3/4 →

One customer was 17% of revenue and fabs sit in Taiwan, Singapore and Japan; China's ban already cost its Chinese infrastructure sales.

Valuation2/4 →

Undemanding against today's pace, but it needs post-boom operating profit 5.5 times the old record indefinitely.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Statements are filed and market shares measured outside, but the $150B contracted figure and the floor prices rest on management alone.

The Verdict

We rate Micron neutral. It is one of only three big makers of memory chips, and AI servers need far more of them than the industry can make, so prices and profits have soared. The business is solid, and buyers have signed five-year contracts backed by deposits, which is new for memory. The price already expects record profits to fall, but still needs them to stay far above any earlier memory cycle, so it is full, not cheap. The view hinges on those contracts: covering half of sales through 2030 would change it. We think every earlier shortage ended in a glut, and this one may only be shallower.

The long caseAI servers need far more memory than factories can make, and new factories take years; Micron needs that shortage to last longer than past memory booms did.

The evidence under this - 9 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Micron makes memory chips: DRAM, the working memory that holds data while a processor uses it, including HBM (stacks of DRAM placed beside an AI processor), plus NAND flash for storage and a little NOR. In FQ4 2026 DRAM was $39.8B (73% of revenue) and NAND $14.1B (26%). It reports four business units: cloud, core data center, mobile and client, and automotive and embedded.
current state · 2026-09-03written 2026-10-01
C02facthigh confidence
Fiscal 2026 (year to 3 September 2026) revenue was $133,188M against $37,378M, up 256%. GAAP gross margin was 80.7% against 39.8%, GAAP operating income $99,340M against $9,770M, and GAAP diluted EPS $74.33 against $7.59.
historical · fiscal 2026written 2026-10-01
C05facthigh confidence
Revenue grew mainly on price. FQ3 2026 DRAM revenue rose 67% on FQ2 on a low-60% rise in average selling prices and a low-single-digit rise in bits shipped. Over the first nine months of fiscal 2026 DRAM prices rose about 140% and bits about 30% on the year; NAND prices about 130% and bits about 20%.
historical · first nine months of fiscal 2026written 2026-10-01
C09facthigh confidence
Micron's 10-Q says its strategic customer agreements are take-or-pay, with binding volume commitments over multi-year terms. Most prices are fixed or held between a floor and a ceiling; the largest agreements' ceiling for existing products is about the market price of calendar Q2 2026. A minority float with the market.
current state · 2026-05-28written 2026-10-01
C13facthigh confidence
Customer deposits are real cash: the balance sheet at 3 September 2026 carried $12,895M of noncurrent customer contract liabilities against $568M at 28 May, and fiscal 2026 financing cash flow shows $12,747M of customer deposits received.
current state · 2026-09-03written 2026-10-01
C31estimatemedium confidence
At about $1,169B of enterprise value, a 6% after-tax yield at a 15.5% tax rate needs about $83.0B of GAAP operating income a year, indefinitely. That is 84% of fiscal 2026, 41% of the FQ1 2027 guided pace of $202.2B a year, and 5.5 times the fiscal 2018 record.
derived$1,169.3B x 6% / (1 - 15.5%) = $83.0B. Guided pace: $61.5B x 85.95% less $2.31B = $50.5B a quarter, $202.2B a year. Fiscal 2018 operating income $14.99B (C07).
against this
  • The guided pace for the next year alone is $202.2B, so if it holds for two years the company earns roughly a third of today's enterprise value after tax before any fall.
  • Management says agreement floor prices still give margins above any past peak (C10), which would put a post-boom level well above the old record.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C30estimatehigh confidence
Counting every diluted share, Micron is worth about $1,224.9B at $1,065.11, and its enterprise value is about $1,169B after $68.3B of net cash, treating the $12.7B of customer deposits as owed.
derived1.15B diluted shares (the guidance count) times the 2026-09-30 close of $1,065.11 = $1,224.9B; less net cash of $68.3B and add back $12.7B of deposits = $1,169.3B. The vendor's enterprise value is $1,169.2B.
against this

Treating deposits as cash rather than debt lowers the enterprise value by $12.7B, about 1%, which changes no conclusion.

current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C33facthigh confidence
The vendor's panel has fiscal 2028 EPS at $199.85 from 22 analysts, so $1,065.11 is 5.3 times it. Its positive share is 91.8% of 49 analysts, up from 86.4% of 44 in February. Fiscal 2026 diluted EPS was $74.33.
current state · 2026-10-01written 2026-10-01
C35facthigh confidence
The shares fell 30.3% from $461.73 after the FQ2 2026 print to $321.80 on 30 March 2026, on fears growth could not continue, and 39.1% from $1,213.56 on 25 June to $739.00 on 29 July, with coverage asking how long such margins can last.
historical · March and June to July 2026written 2026-10-01
01

The company

Every computer needs two kinds of memory. DRAM holds what the processor is working on right now and forgets it when the power goes off. NAND flash keeps files when the power is off, mostly inside solid-state drives. Micron makes both, and DRAM is 73% of its sales.

Its most prized product is HBM: eight to twelve DRAM chips stacked and wired together and placed right beside an AI processor. Data centres, phone makers, PC makers and carmakers buy from Micron, Samsung or SK hynix.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Micron makes memory chips: DRAM, the working memory that holds data while a processor uses it, including HBM (stacks of DRAM placed beside an AI processor), plus NAND flash for storage and a little NOR. In FQ4 2026 DRAM was $39.8B (73% of revenue) and NAND $14.1B (26%). It reports four business units: cloud, core data center, mobile and client, and automotive and embedded.
current state · 2026-09-03written 2026-10-01
C06facthigh confidence
In FQ4 2026 DRAM revenue rose 27% on the quarter on prices up in the high teens and bits up in the mid single digits; NAND revenue rose 42% on prices up about 30% and bits up about 10%. Data center SSD revenue was nearly $10B, over two thirds of NAND revenue.
historical · FQ4 2026written 2026-10-01
C16facthigh confidence
TrendForce measured 2Q26 DRAM industry revenue at $154.73B, up 59.5% on the quarter: Samsung 39.4%, SK hynix 24.9%, Micron 23.3% ($36.0B). The three together held 87.6%.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
C44management claimlow confidence
Management says customers want far more HBM and other DRAM than Micron can supply in 2027 and 2028, signing for less volume than they want, and that the HBM market will pass $100B in calendar 2027.
against this

Customers asking for more than a supplier can make is also what double-ordering looks like before a downturn; the 10-K risk factors name changes in customer inventory strategy as a risk (S01).

forwardwritten 2026-10-01
C46facthigh confidence
Micron has been granted over 60,000 patents and owned about 15,000 active US patents in 2025; its 1-gamma DRAM node, its first using EUV lithography, began shipping in 2025.
current state · 2025-08-28written 2026-10-01

How it makes money

Micron sells chips by the gigabit, and almost all its profit comes from the gap between the price per gigabit and the cost of making it. Costs fall slowly as each new factory process squeezes more memory onto a wafer of silicon.

Prices swing far more than costs. In fiscal 2026 DRAM prices rose about 140% while the amount shipped rose about 30%, which is why profit exploded.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Micron makes memory chips: DRAM, the working memory that holds data while a processor uses it, including HBM (stacks of DRAM placed beside an AI processor), plus NAND flash for storage and a little NOR. In FQ4 2026 DRAM was $39.8B (73% of revenue) and NAND $14.1B (26%). It reports four business units: cloud, core data center, mobile and client, and automotive and embedded.
current state · 2026-09-03written 2026-10-01
C05facthigh confidence
Revenue grew mainly on price. FQ3 2026 DRAM revenue rose 67% on FQ2 on a low-60% rise in average selling prices and a low-single-digit rise in bits shipped. Over the first nine months of fiscal 2026 DRAM prices rose about 140% and bits about 30% on the year; NAND prices about 130% and bits about 20%.
historical · first nine months of fiscal 2026written 2026-10-01
C06facthigh confidence
In FQ4 2026 DRAM revenue rose 27% on the quarter on prices up in the high teens and bits up in the mid single digits; NAND revenue rose 42% on prices up about 30% and bits up about 10%. Data center SSD revenue was nearly $10B, over two thirds of NAND revenue.
historical · FQ4 2026written 2026-10-01
C03facthigh confidence
FQ4 2026 (quarter to 3 September 2026) revenue was $54,229M, up 30.8% on FQ3's $41,456M and 379% on the year. GAAP gross margin was 86.8% and GAAP operating income $43,751M, an 80.7% margin; GAAP diluted EPS was $32.87.
historical · FQ4 2026written 2026-10-01
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (FQ4 2026)How it earns it
Core Data Center Business Unit33.2%DRAM modules and data center SSDs sold to server makers and companies running their own data centers.
Cloud Memory Business Unit30.0%HBM, DRAM and SSDs sold to the large cloud providers, much of it under multi-year take-or-pay agreements.
Mobile and Client Business Unit24.2%Low-power DRAM and flash storage for phones, PCs and consumer devices, sold to device makers.
Automotive and Embedded Business Unit12.6%Memory and storage for cars, industrial equipment and consumer electronics, often on long qualification cycles.

Who runs it

Sanjay Mehrotra, who co-founded the flash maker SanDisk, has run Micron since 2017 and also chairs its board; Mark Murphy has run its finances since 2022. Insiders own about 0.24% of the shares, so their stake is mostly their pay. Half the yearly bonus rides on profit; most of the long-term shares pay on how the stock does against other chipmakers and on winning share in AI memory and data-center storage, none on return on capital.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C51facthigh confidence
Sanjay Mehrotra, a co-founder of SanDisk, has been Micron's president and chief executive since May 2017 and chairman since January 2025; Mark Murphy, formerly Qorvo's chief financial officer, has been chief financial officer since April 2022. On 26 August 2026 Manish Bhatia, at Micron since 2017, became President and Chief Operating Officer and Scott DeBoer, at Micron since 1995, President and Chief Technology and Products Officer.
current state · 2026-08-26written 2026-10-04
C49facthigh confidence
As of 31 October 2025 Micron's 18 directors and executive officers as a group beneficially owned 2,686,052 shares, about 0.24% of the 1,124,128,357 outstanding; Sanjay Mehrotra held 1,084,078, about 0.10% and the largest insider holding; Vanguard (8.4%), BlackRock (7.6%) and Capital World Investors (6.3%) were the holders above 5%. There is one class of common stock.
current state · 2025-10-31written 2026-10-04
C50facthigh confidence
Micron's fiscal 2025 annual bonus paid half on profit, the higher of adjusted non-GAAP net income or non-GAAP operating margin achievement, and half on five strategic goal categories; the profit goal paid 95% of target. PRSUs, 65% of the CEO's long-term award, pay half on three-year total return against the SOX index and a quarter each on HBM3E+ and data center SSD market share or bit shipments, capped at 200%. From fiscal 2026 an above-target bonus needs both profit goals.
current state · 2025-11-25written 2026-10-04
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Building a modern memory factory costs tens of billions of dollars and years of know-how, so three firms make 87.6% of all DRAM. Micron alone spent $27.37B on factories last year.

That keeps newcomers out, but it does not lock customers in: a qualified memory chip is much like any other, and buyers switch on price. The only new entrant in a decade, China's CXMT, needed government backing to get in.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C16facthigh confidence
TrendForce measured 2Q26 DRAM industry revenue at $154.73B, up 59.5% on the quarter: Samsung 39.4%, SK hynix 24.9%, Micron 23.3% ($36.0B). The three together held 87.6%.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
C38inferencemedium confidence
The moat is scale: three firms made 87.6% of DRAM revenue in 2Q26, each spending tens of billions a year on fabs and process know-how, and the only new entrant in a decade, CXMT, reached 9.5% with Chinese state backing.
derivedTrendForce shares (C16, C17), Micron's $27.37B of fiscal 2026 capital spending (C24) and the 10-K's statement that governments fund CXMT and YMTC (C15).
against this
  • Scale did not protect prices in the last downturn: fiscal 2023 was an operating loss of $5.75B (C07).
  • CXMT's share rose from 7.6% to 9.5% in one quarter, so the club is not closed (C17).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
C24management claimmedium confidence
Net capital spending was $27.37B in fiscal 2026 ($30.71B gross). Management plans about $11.5B in FQ1 2027 and about $25B in the first half of fiscal 2027, with more in the second half, mostly for construction.
against this

Construction spending makes cleanroom space, not bits; equipment is added later according to demand, so capital spending overstates near-term supply (S03).

forwardwritten 2026-10-01
C17factmedium confidence
TrendForce puts CXMT's share of global DRAM revenue at 9.5% in 2Q26, up from 7.6% in 1Q26. Commercial Times reports its capacity rising from about 320,000 to 420,000 wafers a month by 2027, mainly for Chinese buyers.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
C39inferencemedium confidence
Today's margins come from a shortage, not from a moat: fiscal 2026 growth was mostly price, with DRAM prices up about 140% against bits up about 30% in nine months, and the same products lost money in fiscal 2023.
derivedthe price and bit split (C05, C06) and the prior cycles (C07, C08).
against this
  • The take-or-pay agreements with floors, $12.7B of deposits and HBM's harder engineering are new, and could keep margins above old peaks (C09, C10, C13).
  • Management says supply stays short through 2028 (C22).
current state · 2026-09-03written 2026-10-01

The threat

Samsung moved early into the newest AI memory, HBM4, so Micron's share of the next generation is not settled. In ordinary DRAM, China's CXMT rose to 9.5% of industry sales and is adding about 30% more capacity, mostly for Chinese buyers. In storage, Sandisk and Kioxia sell the same drives.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C20factmedium confidence
TrendForce credits Samsung's 2Q26 bit shipment growth to an early move into HBM4 mass production and shipments, and says HBM makes up more of SK hynix's bit shipments than of Samsung's or Micron's.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
C17factmedium confidence
TrendForce puts CXMT's share of global DRAM revenue at 9.5% in 2Q26, up from 7.6% in 1Q26. Commercial Times reports its capacity rising from about 320,000 to 420,000 wafers a month by 2027, mainly for Chinese buyers.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
C21facthigh confidence
Sandisk's 10-K names Micron among the vertically integrated flash suppliers it competes with, with Kioxia, Samsung, SK hynix and YMTC.
current state · 2026-07-03written 2026-10-01

The rivals: SNDK, and 3 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
Samsung Electronics HBM4Priced against it: Listed abroadDRAM, including HBMOn saleListed abroad
SK hynix HBM3E and HBM4Priced against it: Listed abroadDRAM, including HBMOn saleListed abroad
PrivateCXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) DDR5 and LPDDR6Priced against it: PrivateDRAM, including HBMOn salePrivate
SNDKSandisk and Kioxia data center SSDs, and YMTC NANDPriced against it: One segment onlyNANDOn saleOne segment only
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

The market is huge. Research firm TrendForce counted $154.73B of DRAM sales across the industry in one quarter, and $68.87B of flash sales among the top five makers. Contract prices were still rising in late 2026, by 10% to 15% a quarter for DRAM, though more slowly than earlier in the year.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C16facthigh confidence
TrendForce measured 2Q26 DRAM industry revenue at $154.73B, up 59.5% on the quarter: Samsung 39.4%, SK hynix 24.9%, Micron 23.3% ($36.0B). The three together held 87.6%.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
C18facthigh confidence
TrendForce measured top-five NAND revenue at $68.87B in 2Q26. Micron's NAND revenue was $11.85B, up 99.2%, the fastest of the five, moving it to third.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
C19factmedium confidence
TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 10% to 15% on the quarter in 4Q26 and NAND 15% to 20%, slower than earlier in 2026, and says long-term agreements make some suppliers' increases lag the market average.
forwardwritten 2026-10-01

Who has signed

Micron says 26 customers have signed five-year contracts that cannot be cancelled and oblige them to pay for set volumes, covering over 35% of its sales through 2030. Most set a price floor and a ceiling. The contracts are not public, and the customers are not named.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C09facthigh confidence
Micron's 10-Q says its strategic customer agreements are take-or-pay, with binding volume commitments over multi-year terms. Most prices are fixed or held between a floor and a ceiling; the largest agreements' ceiling for existing products is about the market price of calendar Q2 2026. A minority float with the market.
current state · 2026-05-28written 2026-10-01
C12management claimmedium confidence
Management says Micron has signed 26 strategic customer agreements covering over 35% of revenue through 2030, three quarters of it with defined pricing, and customer commitments of $32B. It puts remaining performance obligations at about $150B and targets about half of revenue under such agreements.
against this
  • The $150B is 30 times the $5B in the 10-Q four months earlier and is not yet in a filing; it should appear in the fiscal 2026 10-K (C11).
  • It counts only agreements with set prices, at minimum volumes and floor prices, so it is not a revenue forecast either way.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C14management claimmedium confidence
Management says the agreements cannot be cancelled, generally run five years with annual volume commitments, and that deposits are returned on a schedule weighted to the second half of the term and can be drawn down if a customer fails to buy.
against this
  • No agreement is filed, so the no-exit term is management's description; a customer under financial stress has never been tested against it.
  • Before 2026 Micron's own 10-K said customers were generally reluctant to sign long-term fixed-price contracts, so the structure has no history (C45).
current state · 2026-06-24written 2026-10-01
Where the growth is coming from, business by business

Where the growth is coming from

BusinessShare of revenueGrowth: last quarterLast half-yearLast year
CDBU33%+1041.5%+850.3%+420.0%
CMBU30%+258.4%+279.0%+218.6%
MCBU24%+248.8%+251.2%+208.6%
AEBU13%+375.9%+347.4%+234.2%
All Other0%+500.0%+250.0%+84.6%
Whole company100%+379.3%+364.1%+256.3%

The filed split through 2026-09-03. These rates are not carried forward: the reading below says why.

How we read it: The blend. The cloud-memory unit (CDBU) grows fastest, but fiscal 2026 prices rose about 140% for DRAM and 130% for NAND: a shortage lifting every unit. HBM is not reported apart.

04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Fast

Sales grew 256% in the year to Sep 2026, faster than the 49% in the year before.

Sep 2022: $30.8BAug 2023: $15.5BAug 2024: $25.1BAug 2025: $37.4BSep 2026: $133B$30.8B$133B
Is it profitable?Strong

Operating margin is 75%, up from −37% in the year to Aug 2023.

Sep 2022: 32%Aug 2023: −37%Aug 2024: 5.2%Aug 2025: 26%Sep 2026: 75%32%75%
Does growth pay off?Pays off

Running costs take 6¢ of each sales dollar, down from 14¢ in the year to Sep 2022.

Sep 2022: 14¢Aug 2023: 28¢Aug 2024: 17¢Aug 2025: 14¢Sep 2026: 6¢14¢6¢
Does it earn good returns?Strong

Each dollar put into the business earns 80% a year after tax, up from 16% in the year to Sep 2022.

Sep 2022: 16%Aug 2024: 1.4%Aug 2025: 14%Sep 2026: 80%16%80%
Is it making cash?Strong

It turned 44% of sales into free cash, $59.0B over the year, after spending 23% of sales on buildings and equipment.

Sep 2022: $3.11BAug 2023: −$6.12BAug 2024: $121MAug 2025: $1.67BSep 2026: $59.0B$3.11B$59.0B
Is the balance sheet safe?Net cash

It holds $43.4B of cash against $5.18B of debt, $38.3B more cash than it owes.

Sep 2022: $2.42BAug 2023: −$3.74BAug 2024: −$5.29BAug 2025: −$4.27BSep 2026: $38.3B$2.42B$38.3B
Are shares being diluted?Stable

The share count rose 1.9% in 4.0 years, and pay in shares costs 1.0% of sales.

Sep 2022: 1.12BAug 2023: 1.09BAug 2024: 1.12BAug 2025: 1.12BSep 2026: 1.14B1.12B1.14B
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-10. Fiscal years end in September.

Sep 2022Aug 2023Aug 2024Aug 2025Sep 2026
Size and growth
Sales$30.8B$15.5B$25.1B$37.4B$133B
Sales growth+11%−49%+62%+49%+256%
Profit
Gross margin45%−9.1%22%40%81%
Operating margin32%−37%5.2%26%75%
Net margin28%−38%3.1%23%64%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development10%20%14%10%4.2%
Selling, general and admin3.5%5.9%4.5%3.2%1.5%
Pay in shares1.7%3.8%3.3%2.6%1.0%
Capital spending39%49%33%42%23%
Cash
Cash from operations$15.2B$1.56B$8.51B$17.5B$89.7B
Free cash flow$3.11B−$6.12B$121M$1.67B$59.0B
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$9.33B$9.59B$8.11B$10.3B$43.4B
Debt$6.91B$13.3B$13.4B$14.6B$5.18B
Net cash$2.42B−$3.74B−$5.29B−$4.27B$38.3B
Returns and shares
Return on capital16%-1.4%14%80%
Shares (diluted)1.12B1.09B1.12B1.12B1.14B

What growth costs

Micron's research and office costs barely grow with sales, so a jump in memory prices drops almost straight to profit. It works in reverse too: when prices fell in 2023, those fixed costs swallowed the sales and Micron lost money. The cost that does grow is building and equipping factories, and that is rising fast.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C53facthigh confidence
Research and development, the income-statement line and the filer's ResearchAndDevelopmentExpense tag alike, was 9.6% of revenue in fiscal 2021, 20.0% in fiscal 2023, 10.2% in fiscal 2025 and 4.2% in fiscal 2026, when it rose 49% to $5,650M against revenue up 256%. Selling, general and administrative fell from 3.2% to 1.5% of revenue between fiscal 2025 and 2026, and gross capital spending from 42.4% to 23.1%.
historical · fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2026written 2026-10-04
C07facthigh confidence
Micron's GAAP operating income was $14.99B on $30.39B of revenue in fiscal 2018, its record before this boom, then $7.38B in fiscal 2019. It was $9.70B in fiscal 2022 and a loss of $5.75B in fiscal 2023. The ten fiscal years 2016 to 2025 summed to about $52.7B.
historical · fiscal 2016 to fiscal 2025written 2026-10-01
C24management claimmedium confidence
Net capital spending was $27.37B in fiscal 2026 ($30.71B gross). Management plans about $11.5B in FQ1 2027 and about $25B in the first half of fiscal 2027, with more in the second half, mostly for construction.
against this

Construction spending makes cleanroom space, not bits; equipment is added later according to demand, so capital spending overstates near-term supply (S03).

forwardwritten 2026-10-01

The last report (30 Sep)

Quarter ended May 2026, filed figures.

73.7%
Growth from the quarter before
against 74.9% the quarter before that
80¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

FQ4 2026, the three months to 3 September, was another record. Sales rose 30.8% on the quarter to $54.2B, mainly because prices rose again, and Micron kept 86.8 cents of each sales dollar after production costs.

Management expects about $61.5B of sales in FQ1 2027 and higher sales every quarter of the year. The profit margin dips slightly in FQ1 because of bonuses paid on last year's record, which management says is the low point.

What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the core of the case: prices are still rising and Micron keeps almost all of each extra dollar. It did not settle the open question, which is how long memory prices stay this high, and the share price already assumes they will.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $33.42 against $31.72 expected.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C03facthigh confidence
FQ4 2026 (quarter to 3 September 2026) revenue was $54,229M, up 30.8% on FQ3's $41,456M and 379% on the year. GAAP gross margin was 86.8% and GAAP operating income $43,751M, an 80.7% margin; GAAP diluted EPS was $32.87.
historical · FQ4 2026written 2026-10-01
C06facthigh confidence
In FQ4 2026 DRAM revenue rose 27% on the quarter on prices up in the high teens and bits up in the mid single digits; NAND revenue rose 42% on prices up about 30% and bits up about 10%. Data center SSD revenue was nearly $10B, over two thirds of NAND revenue.
historical · FQ4 2026written 2026-10-01
C04management claimmedium confidence
Management guides FQ1 2027 revenue to $61.5B plus or minus $1.5B, GAAP gross margin of about 85.95%, GAAP operating expenses of about $2.31B and GAAP EPS of $37.84 plus or minus $1.00 on about 1.15B shares. It expects revenue to rise every quarter of fiscal 2027 and calls FQ1 the low point for gross margin.
against this
  • TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract price rises to slow to 10% to 15% a quarter in 4Q26, from far larger rises earlier in 2026 (C19).
  • FQ1 gross margin is guided below FQ4's 86.8%, partly from about $1B of higher-cost inventory, so the margin peak may already have passed (C43).
forwardwritten 2026-10-01
C43management claimmedium confidence
FQ4 2026 operating expenses of $3,296M included a $500M patent license charge, higher bonuses and $300M of community investment. Management expects about $1B of higher-cost inventory to weigh on FQ1 2027 and operating expenses to rise about $2.5B in fiscal 2027.
against this

The patent charge and the community contribution are one-time items in management's framing; bonuses tied to record results recur.

forwardwritten 2026-10-01
What management did with the money

Micron paid down debt to $5.18B and now holds $68.3B more cash than it owes. It bought back only $650M of shares last year, partly because government chip-factory grants restricted buybacks until December 2026, and says it will then return far more.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 0 purchases and 64 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C25facthigh confidence
At 3 September 2026 Micron held $73.48B of cash and investments against $5.18B of debt, net cash of $68.3B, plus $12.7B of customer deposits to be returned. It is rated BBB+ by all three agencies.
current state · 2026-09-03written 2026-10-01
C28facthigh confidence
Of a $10B buyback authorization Micron had used $7.84B by 28 May 2026; fiscal 2026 buybacks were $650M and withholding on employee awards $1,127M. Buybacks are subject to restrictions in its CHIPS Act funding agreements; the dividend is $0.15 a quarter.
current state · 2026-09-03written 2026-10-01
C29management claimmedium confidence
Management says it will raise capital return from 9 December 2026, the second anniversary of its CHIPS Act agreements, and over time return 100% of excess cash, mainly by buyback.
against this

Only $650M was bought back in fiscal 2026 against $62.3B of free cash flow, and capital spending is rising (C26, C28).

forwardwritten 2026-10-01
C24management claimmedium confidence
Net capital spending was $27.37B in fiscal 2026 ($30.71B gross). Management plans about $11.5B in FQ1 2027 and about $25B in the first half of fiscal 2027, with more in the second half, mostly for construction.
against this

Construction spending makes cleanroom space, not bits; equipment is added later according to demand, so capital spending overstates near-term supply (S03).

forwardwritten 2026-10-01
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Full. The price already expects Micron's record profits to fall a long way, but still needs them to stay far above anything it earned in past memory cycles.

Share price
$1,065.11
close,
Price for each $1 of yearly profit
14.1
its 6-year normal 13.4
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
11.0
its 6-year normal 9.1

The shares have risen more than sixfold in a year, but twice in 2026 they fell by about a third on fears that the boom had peaked, and both times sales then kept rising.

The real test comes later. The industry's big new factories start producing in mid 2027 and late 2028. Until then supply can grow only slowly, which is why management sees no end to the shortage.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C35facthigh confidence
The shares fell 30.3% from $461.73 after the FQ2 2026 print to $321.80 on 30 March 2026, on fears growth could not continue, and 39.1% from $1,213.56 on 25 June to $739.00 on 29 July, with coverage asking how long such margins can last.
historical · March and June to July 2026written 2026-10-01
C34facthigh confidence
Over 252 sessions to 30 September 2026 the shares rose 549.9% while trailing revenue per share rose 249.5%, so the price paid per dollar of revenue rose 85.9%.
historical · 252 sessions to 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C23management claimmedium confidence
Management's fab timetable: Idaho 1 and the Tongluo fab in Taiwan start output in mid calendar 2027, Idaho 2 and a Japan expansion in late 2028, a Singapore NAND fab in the second half of 2028, New York in 2030, and an HBM packaging plant in early 2027.
against this
  • New fabs take several quarters to ramp after first output, so their bits arrive gradually (S03).
  • The timetable is Micron's alone; rivals' additions are on their own schedules (C17).
forwardwritten 2026-10-01
C22management claimmedium confidence
Management expects industry DRAM bits to grow in the low 20s percent and NAND in the mid 20s in calendar 2027 and 2028, both short of demand, and says it has no line of sight to when supply and demand balance.
against this
  • Every past memory shortage ended in oversupply: fiscal 2018's record profit fell by half in a year and fiscal 2022's turned into a loss (C07).
  • Micron and its rivals are raising capital spending, CXMT is adding about 30% more wafers, and new fabs open in 2027 and 2028 (C17, C23, C24).
forwardwritten 2026-10-01
How we read the multiple

On the last year's profit, a buyer pays about 14 times, near Micron's usual 13. On last quarter's operating profit (profit from the business itself) times four, the whole company costs about 6.7 times. Cheap-looking.

But memory profits do not stay at peaks. To earn 6% a year after tax on today's price, a common yardstick, Micron must:

  1. Make about $83B of operating profit a year, for ever.
  2. That is 84% of what it made in fiscal 2026.
  3. And 5.5 times its best year before this boom, fiscal 2018.

Against its own history. Dearer than its own past normal on sales, because the market is paying for profits it does not expect to last at today's level.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C30estimatehigh confidence
Counting every diluted share, Micron is worth about $1,224.9B at $1,065.11, and its enterprise value is about $1,169B after $68.3B of net cash, treating the $12.7B of customer deposits as owed.
derived1.15B diluted shares (the guidance count) times the 2026-09-30 close of $1,065.11 = $1,224.9B; less net cash of $68.3B and add back $12.7B of deposits = $1,169.3B. The vendor's enterprise value is $1,169.2B.
against this

Treating deposits as cash rather than debt lowers the enterprise value by $12.7B, about 1%, which changes no conclusion.

current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C31estimatemedium confidence
At about $1,169B of enterprise value, a 6% after-tax yield at a 15.5% tax rate needs about $83.0B of GAAP operating income a year, indefinitely. That is 84% of fiscal 2026, 41% of the FQ1 2027 guided pace of $202.2B a year, and 5.5 times the fiscal 2018 record.
derived$1,169.3B x 6% / (1 - 15.5%) = $83.0B. Guided pace: $61.5B x 85.95% less $2.31B = $50.5B a quarter, $202.2B a year. Fiscal 2018 operating income $14.99B (C07).
against this
  • The guided pace for the next year alone is $202.2B, so if it holds for two years the company earns roughly a third of today's enterprise value after tax before any fall.
  • Management says agreement floor prices still give margins above any past peak (C10), which would put a post-boom level well above the old record.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C32estimatehigh confidence
At about $1,169B the enterprise value is 6.7 times FQ4 2026 GAAP operating income annualised ($175.0B), 5.8 times the FQ1 2027 guided pace and 11.8 times fiscal 2026 operating income.
derived$1,169.3B over $43,751M x 4, over $50.5B x 4, and over $99,340M (C03, C04, C02, C30).
against this

Run-rate multiples on a shortage peak flatter the price; on fiscal 2018's record operating income the same value is 78 times (C07).

current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C07facthigh confidence
Micron's GAAP operating income was $14.99B on $30.39B of revenue in fiscal 2018, its record before this boom, then $7.38B in fiscal 2019. It was $9.70B in fiscal 2022 and a loss of $5.75B in fiscal 2023. The ten fiscal years 2016 to 2025 summed to about $52.7B.
historical · fiscal 2016 to fiscal 2025written 2026-10-01
Priced against its rivals

None of the listed rivals above sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., SK hynix Inc., Kioxia Holdings Corporation, ChangXin Memory Technologies, Inc. (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Ltd. (YMTC).

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

This is the top of a boom: profits this high always attract new supply, so buyers should pay very little for each dollar of today's profit.

We believe

The contracts and slow factory building keep profits far above old peaks through 2028, but not at today's margins for ever.

The five-year contracts with deposits are new to memory; in past cycles buyers refused to commit. That could make the next downturn much shallower than the last ones.

We are wrong if contract prices start falling in 2027 while Micron's sales drop, or if the annual report shows far less than the $150B of contracted sales management describes.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
92%
of 49, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
85%
of 47, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C33facthigh confidence
The vendor's panel has fiscal 2028 EPS at $199.85 from 22 analysts, so $1,065.11 is 5.3 times it. Its positive share is 91.8% of 49 analysts, up from 86.4% of 44 in February. Fiscal 2026 diluted EPS was $74.33.
current state · 2026-10-01written 2026-10-01
C35facthigh confidence
The shares fell 30.3% from $461.73 after the FQ2 2026 print to $321.80 on 30 March 2026, on fears growth could not continue, and 39.1% from $1,213.56 on 25 June to $739.00 on 29 July, with coverage asking how long such margins can last.
historical · March and June to July 2026written 2026-10-01
C31estimatemedium confidence
At about $1,169B of enterprise value, a 6% after-tax yield at a 15.5% tax rate needs about $83.0B of GAAP operating income a year, indefinitely. That is 84% of fiscal 2026, 41% of the FQ1 2027 guided pace of $202.2B a year, and 5.5 times the fiscal 2018 record.
derived$1,169.3B x 6% / (1 - 15.5%) = $83.0B. Guided pace: $61.5B x 85.95% less $2.31B = $50.5B a quarter, $202.2B a year. Fiscal 2018 operating income $14.99B (C07).
against this
  • The guided pace for the next year alone is $202.2B, so if it holds for two years the company earns roughly a third of today's enterprise value after tax before any fall.
  • Management says agreement floor prices still give margins above any past peak (C10), which would put a post-boom level well above the old record.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C09facthigh confidence
Micron's 10-Q says its strategic customer agreements are take-or-pay, with binding volume commitments over multi-year terms. Most prices are fixed or held between a floor and a ceiling; the largest agreements' ceiling for existing products is about the market price of calendar Q2 2026. A minority float with the market.
current state · 2026-05-28written 2026-10-01
C13facthigh confidence
Customer deposits are real cash: the balance sheet at 3 September 2026 carried $12,895M of noncurrent customer contract liabilities against $568M at 28 May, and fiscal 2026 financing cash flow shows $12,747M of customer deposits received.
current state · 2026-09-03written 2026-10-01
C39inferencemedium confidence
Today's margins come from a shortage, not from a moat: fiscal 2026 growth was mostly price, with DRAM prices up about 140% against bits up about 30% in nine months, and the same products lost money in fiscal 2023.
derivedthe price and bit split (C05, C06) and the prior cycles (C07, C08).
against this
  • The take-or-pay agreements with floors, $12.7B of deposits and HBM's harder engineering are new, and could keep margins above old peaks (C09, C10, C13).
  • Management says supply stays short through 2028 (C22).
current state · 2026-09-03written 2026-10-01
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • The cycle turns. After the 2018 peak Micron's operating profit halved in a year; after 2022 it lost $5.75B. Every past shortage ended in oversupply.
  • The contracts cut both ways. The price ceilings sit near spring 2026 levels, so if shortages deepen, Micron earns less than rivals selling at market prices.
  • Samsung leads the newest memory. Samsung moved early into HBM4 mass production, so Micron could lose share in the most profitable product.
  • China builds its own. CXMT reached 9.5% of DRAM sales and is adding capacity; China already bars many local buyers from Micron.
  • One big customer. One unnamed customer took 17% of sales in fiscal 2025, and the ten largest took over half.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C07facthigh confidence
Micron's GAAP operating income was $14.99B on $30.39B of revenue in fiscal 2018, its record before this boom, then $7.38B in fiscal 2019. It was $9.70B in fiscal 2022 and a loss of $5.75B in fiscal 2023. The ten fiscal years 2016 to 2025 summed to about $52.7B.
historical · fiscal 2016 to fiscal 2025written 2026-10-01
C19factmedium confidence
TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 10% to 15% on the quarter in 4Q26 and NAND 15% to 20%, slower than earlier in 2026, and says long-term agreements make some suppliers' increases lag the market average.
forwardwritten 2026-10-01
C20factmedium confidence
TrendForce credits Samsung's 2Q26 bit shipment growth to an early move into HBM4 mass production and shipments, and says HBM makes up more of SK hynix's bit shipments than of Samsung's or Micron's.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
C17factmedium confidence
TrendForce puts CXMT's share of global DRAM revenue at 9.5% in 2Q26, up from 7.6% in 1Q26. Commercial Times reports its capacity rising from about 320,000 to 420,000 wafers a month by 2027, mainly for Chinese buyers.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-01
C36facthigh confidence
One customer was 17% of fiscal 2025 revenue, mostly in the cloud unit; the top ten were over half of revenue, and about half of revenue came from data center buyers.
current state · 2025-08-28written 2026-10-01
C15facthigh confidence
Micron's 10-K names Samsung, SK hynix, Kioxia, Sandisk, CXMT and YMTC as competitors, and says China's Cyberspace Administration ruled in May 2023 that operators of critical information infrastructure in China may not buy Micron products.
current state · 2025-08-28written 2026-10-01
What we still do not know
  • Who the 26 contract customers are, and what floor prices they agreed.
  • Whether the annual report confirms about $150B of contracted sales; the last quarterly report showed $5B.
  • How far profits fall once new factories start producing in 2027 and 2028.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C12management claimmedium confidence
Management says Micron has signed 26 strategic customer agreements covering over 35% of revenue through 2030, three quarters of it with defined pricing, and customer commitments of $32B. It puts remaining performance obligations at about $150B and targets about half of revenue under such agreements.
against this
  • The $150B is 30 times the $5B in the 10-Q four months earlier and is not yet in a filing; it should appear in the fiscal 2026 10-K (C11).
  • It counts only agreements with set prices, at minimum volumes and floor prices, so it is not a revenue forecast either way.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-01
C10management claimmedium confidence
Management says gross margins from the agreements with price bands, even at floor prices, will be well above Micron's peak quarterly margin in any past cycle, which was 61.0%.
against this
  • The floor prices are not disclosed and the agreements are not filed, so the claim cannot be checked against a number.
  • TrendForce says long-term agreements make some suppliers' price rises lag the market, so the same contracts that set floors also cap prices (C19).
forwardwritten 2026-10-01
C11facthigh confidence
At 28 May 2026 remaining performance obligations were about $5B, a third due within twelve months, counting minimum volumes at minimum prices. Micron expected $22B of deposits and other financial commitments from the agreements then signed, about $18B of it cash.
current state · 2026-05-28written 2026-10-01

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveA price the old cycle could almost justify

    It needs:

    • ○The whole business, counting cash, costs 4.5 times a full year of last quarter's operating profit, down from about 6.7.about ≈$715.37 today, 33% below the last close
  2. Neutral→AttractiveThe contracts prove the profit is durable

    It needs all of:

    • ○The five-year contracts cover half of Micron's sales through 2030, from over 35% now.checked at the next results, due by 16 Dec
    • ○The annual report shows at least $200B of contracted future sales, against about $150B management describes.checked at the next results, due by 16 Dec
We would also be wrong if
  • Sales fall from one quarter to the next during fiscal 2027.
  • Industry contract prices for memory start falling before 2028.
  • A customer walks away from a five-year contract or pays below its floor.

What is coming

  • October 2026 Fiscal 2026 Form 10-K: The filed terms of the strategic customer agreements, remaining performance obligations and fiscal 2026 customer concentration, against management's $150B description.
Every dated event ahead
  • October 2026 Fiscal 2026 Form 10-K: The filed terms of the strategic customer agreements, remaining performance obligations and fiscal 2026 customer concentration, against management's $150B description.
  • December 2026 FQ1 2027 results: Revenue against $61.5B, GAAP gross margin against 85.95%, and whether the FQ2 guide stays above FQ1 revenue; the vendor calendar says 23 December, the thesis 16 December.
  • 9 December 2026 CHIPS Act buyback restrictions lapse; capital return to rise: Whether buybacks step up from $650M a year toward returning excess cash, or fab spending absorbs it.
  • June 2027 Idaho 1 and Tongluo fabs start output: Whether new supply arrives on schedule and how prices respond as industry bit supply grows: the first read on how long the shortage lasts.
Since we wrote this
Written
1 Oct
Price the thesis read
$1,065.11
30 Sep
  • 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
  • 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
  • 1 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionA real shortage and record profits, at a price that already expects a fall but needs profit far above any past peak afterwards.

Also checked 6 times with nothing new to act on.

Sources 19

Where this came from

Sources - 19

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2025-10-03
    Item 1 business units, products, named competitors, customer pricing practice, patents, headcount; risk factors on customer concentration, China's CAC decision and supply; Note 28 customer concentration; Note 29 revenue by customer headquarters
    backsC01C15C36C37C45C46C51
  2. S02primarycompany filing2026-09-30
    FQ4 and FY2026 income statement, balance sheet and cash flow; business-unit revenue and margins; GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation; FQ1 2027 guidance; capital spending and adjusted free cash flow
    backsC02C03C04C08C13C24C25C26C27C28C33C34C43C48C52C53
  3. S03primarycompany release2026-09-30
    DRAM and NAND revenue, price and bit changes; strategic customer agreement count, coverage, commitments and remaining performance obligations; industry bit growth outlook; fab timetable; capex plan; cash, debt and deposits; capital return intent
    To date, we have signed 26 SCAs, which we currently estimate to be over 35% of our revenue through 2030.
    backsC01C03C04C06C10C12C13C22C23C24C25C29C40C43C47
  4. S04primarycompany filing2026-06-25
    MD&A on supply allocation and strategic customer agreements (take-or-pay, price bands, ceiling near calendar Q2 2026 prices); price and bit drivers of revenue; remaining performance obligations of $5B; expected deposits of $22B; capex plan, fab timetable and CHIPS Act funding; share count; buyback authorization
    backsC05C09C10C11C23C27C28C47
  5. S05primarycompany filing2025-10-03
    operating income and gross profit by fiscal year through two prior memory cycles, and quarterly gross margin history
    backsC07C08C52C53
  6. S06primarytranscript2026-06-24
    Fiscal Q3 2026 post-earnings analyst call transcript (FMP), held 2026-06-24
    data/cache/transcripts/MU-2026Q3.json
    management on the strategic customer agreements (no cancellation, five-year terms, deposits returned late in the term), HBM demand above supply, CXMT and YMTC selling mostly in China, startup costs; 15 analyst turns from 7 analysts, a separate origin from the answers
    These Strategic Customer Agreements cannot be canceled. There is no provision in this agreement that allows a customer to walk away.
    backsC14C29C44
  7. S07primaryindustry data2026-09-07
    industry DRAM revenue for 2Q26 and each supplier's revenue and share, measured outside the company; Samsung's early HBM4 shipments; supply added mainly through process migration
    sharp rises in traditional DRAM contract prices have led to a 59.5% QoQ increase in total DRAM industry revenue, reaching nearly US$154.73 billion in 2Q26 ... The company ranked first with a market share of 39.4%. ... Its 2Q26 revenue increased 37.9% QoQ to $38.59 billion, while market share edged down to 24.9%. ... Revenue rose 65.5% QoQ to $36.0 billion in 2Q26, lifting its market share slightly to 23.3%.
    backsC16C20
  8. S08secondaryindustry data2026-09-24
    CXMT's DRAM revenue share by TrendForce's own count, and CXMT's and YMTC's capacity plans as reported by Commercial Times
    CXMT's monthly DRAM capacity is expected to rise from around 320,000 wafers currently to 420,000 wafers by 2027 ... According to TrendForce , CXMT's global DRAM revenue share rose to 9.5% in 2Q26 from 7.6% in 1Q26, placing it fourth behind Samsung at 39.4%, SK hynix at 24.9%, and Micron at 23.3%.
    backsC17
  9. S09primaryindustry data2026-08-18
    top-five NAND revenue in 2Q26 and each supplier's revenue and share
    the combined revenue of the top five publicly listed NAND Flash brands rose 77% QoQ to US$68.87 billion ... Micron likewise benefited from a significant increase in ASPs, with NAND Flash revenue reaching $11.85 billion, up 99.2% QoQ - the highest growth rate among the top five brands.
    backsC18
  10. S10primaryindustry data2026-09-30
    4Q26 contract price forecast for DRAM and NAND, and that long-term agreements make some suppliers' price rises lag the market
    Conventional DRAM contract prices are projected to grow 10-15% QoQ in 4Q26, while NAND Flash contract prices are expected to increase 15-20% ... On the pricing front, increases for some suppliers are expected to lag the market average due to pricing mechanisms stipulated in long-term agreements (LTAs).
    backsC19
  11. S11primarycompany filing2026-08-17
    a NAND rival naming Micron among the vertically integrated flash suppliers it competes with
    backsC21
  12. S12secondaryvendor data2026-10-01
    Research pack frozen beside this thesis, 2026-10-01
    content/MU/research-pack.json
    close of $1,065.11 on 2026-09-30, daily closes, the 252-day return and its decomposition, analyst split and its history, consensus estimates, short interest, insider roster
    backsC33C34C35C42
  13. S13tertiarynews2026-07-19
    the objection stated in coverage during the June to July fall
    So the sell-off isn't about the numbers. It's about how long numbers like these can last.
    backsC35
  14. S14tertiarynews2026-03-19
    the objection stated in coverage after the FQ2 2026 print
    the market reaction is likely the result of fears that Micron won't be able to continue its torrid growth rate
    backsC35
  15. S15primarycompany filing2026-08-25
    the Rule 10b5-1 flag on each of 329 open-market sales and 3 purchases
    backsC41
  16. S16primarycompany filing2026-08-26
    Manish Bhatia named President and COO, Scott DeBoer President and CTPO, Sumit Sadana moved to senior advisor
    backsC51
  17. S17primarycompany filing2025-09-23
    fiscal 2025 results and the FQ1 2026 guide a year ago: about $1.2B of sequential revenue growth with gross margin above 50%
    backsC47
  18. S18primarycompany filing2026-06-24
    FQ3 2026 results, the FQ4 guide and the announcement of the first strategic customer agreements; figures cited from the 10-Q filed the next day
    read, but no claim rests on it
  19. S19primarycompany filing2025-11-25
    beneficial ownership as of October 31, 2025; the fiscal 2025 short-term incentive goals, weights and payout; the PRSU metrics, mix and caps; the fiscal 2026 change to the profit goal; board leadership
    backsC49C50C51
Rendered from content/MU/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-01. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.