← All thesesZMNeutralMedium convictionSunday 11 October 2026עברית

Zoom Communications

The video-meeting company that became a household name in 2020, now selling business phone systems and AI customer-service agents, with a large stake in Anthropic on the side.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth2/4 →

Revenue grew 3.1%, 3.1% and 4.4% in three years and is guided near 4%; Enterprise grows 7.8% but Online is flat.

Business quality2/4 →

Enterprise retention below 100% and a Teams seat bundled in Office leave meetings substitutable; phone and contact-centre switching costs are real but unreported.

Financial position4/4 →

$7.25B of cash and securities, no debt, and about $1.9B of free cash flow a year; nothing needs outside money.

Execution record3/4 →

Beat seven of eight quarters and raised the FY2027 guide, but Q4 FY2026 missed and growth has not left 3-5% in three years.

Per share capture3/4 →

Shares fell 4.4% in 18 months, but share pay near 15% of revenue absorbs about 38% of free cash flow before any buyback.

Potential2/4 →

Contact-centre and AI growth is expected, not contracted; the US phone base has mostly moved already and management's seat counts are unverified.

Risk profile3/4 →

No customer above 10%, but Microsoft controls the suite Zoom competes against and the interoperability it needs; the founder holds voting control.

Valuation3/4 →

About 12 times operating profit after cash and stakes, 15.4 times after cash alone: fair for 4% growth with 3% yearly buybacks.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Central figures are filed and the phone base is the FCC's, but product growth rates and seat counts are management's word alone.

The bet · 2-3 years
Safe, little upside1.1×

If it works 1.1× · if it fails you keep about 98%.

The Verdict

We rate Zoom neutral. It still makes a lot of money but barely grows: big-company customers buying its phone and contact-centre software are growing, while small self-serve customers are flat, so the business is mixed. Almost half the market value is cash, bonds and a stake in Anthropic, the AI lab. Take those away and the business costs about twelve times its yearly operating profit, a sensible price for slow growth, so it is fair. As a bet it is safe with little upside: if its contact-centre and AI products grow as hoped the shares gain little, and if they fail shareholders keep nearly everything.

The long caseIf customer service moves to software agents, a vendor already holding a company's phones and meetings can sell it the contact centre and the AI that answers.

The evidence under this - 8 claims
C02facthigh confidence
In Q2 FY2027 (the quarter to 31 July 2026) Enterprise revenue was $787.5M, up 7.8%, and Online revenue $489.7M, up 0.6%. Enterprise was 61.7% of revenue against 60.0% a year earlier.
historical · Q2 FY2027written 2026-09-29
C03facthigh confidence
Revenue was $4,868.8M in FY2026 (the year to 31 January 2026), up 4.4%, after growth of 3.1% in each of FY2025 and FY2024.
historical · FY2024-FY2026written 2026-09-29
C06facthigh confidence
Zoom's trailing 12-month net dollar expansion rate for Enterprise customers was 99% at 31 July 2026, against 98% at 31 January 2026 and 2025 and 101% at 31 January 2024. The 10-K says slower hiring and seat downsells took it below 100%.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C17facthigh confidence
Zoom's preferred stock in Anthropic was carried at $3,134.5M at 31 July 2026, after a further $300.9M bought in the first half; all strategic investments were $3,785.9M. They are marked only when a same-issuer transaction is observed.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C18facthigh confidence
Zoom held $7,249.7M of cash and marketable securities and no borrowings at 31 July 2026.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C19facthigh confidence
Shares outstanding fell to 292.3M at 31 July 2026 from 305.7M at 31 January 2025, a 4.4% fall. Zoom spent $1,620.7M on buybacks in FY2026, 84% of that year's free cash flow, plus $247.8M of employee tax paid by withholding shares, and $722.2M on buybacks in the first half of FY2027, with $1.3B of authorisation left.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C20estimatemedium confidence
At $87.30 on 292.3M shares the market value is about $25.52B. Less $7.25B of cash and securities it is 15.4 times trailing GAAP operating income; less also the $3.79B of strategic stakes, about $14.48B or 12.2 times, an after-tax operating yield near 6.4%.
derivedClose of $87.30 on 2026-09-28 (pack) times 292.3M filed shares (C19); cash and securities (C18) and stakes (C17) at book; operating income from C13; a 22% tax rate close to the recent effective rate.
against this
  • The stakes are carried at a private round price and cannot be sold today; valued at nothing, the multiple is 15.4 times, not 12.2.
  • The vendor's enterprise value subtracts only cash and equivalents, not the $6.3B of securities, and prints 21.0 times on the same line.
current state · 2026-09-28written 2026-09-29
C11management claimlow confidence
Management says Zoom CX recurring revenue grows at a high double-digit rate after passing $100M five quarters earlier, Zoom Virtual Agent's customer count rose 256%, Phone recurring revenue grows in the teens, and Workvivo passed $100M of recurring revenue. None of these is filed.
against this
  • Zoom reports one segment and files no revenue for Phone, Contact Center or Virtual Agent, so none of these rates can be checked.
  • The CFO declined on the call to update the Contact Center milestone beyond the $100M given five quarters earlier.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
01

The company

Zoom sells businesses software they pay for per person each month: video meetings, chat, and a phone system that replaces the old office switchboard. It also sells contact-centre software, where AI agents answer customers' calls and chats before a person has to.

About 62% of revenue comes from larger companies served by its sales team; the rest comes from small buyers signing up on its website. The alternative is Microsoft Teams, which many firms already own, or phone rivals like RingCentral and 8x8.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Zoom sells businesses two groups of cloud software by subscription. Zoom Workplace holds Meetings, Phone, Team Chat, Docs, Whiteboard, Rooms and Workvivo; Zoom Business Services, which the company now also calls Zoom CX, holds Contact Center, Zoom Virtual Agent, Revenue Accelerator and Events. AI Companion is included in paid seats at no extra charge.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C02facthigh confidence
In Q2 FY2027 (the quarter to 31 July 2026) Enterprise revenue was $787.5M, up 7.8%, and Online revenue $489.7M, up 0.6%. Enterprise was 61.7% of revenue against 60.0% a year earlier.
historical · Q2 FY2027written 2026-09-29
C21facthigh confidence
Zoom's 10-K names Cisco Webex, GoTo, Microsoft 365 with Teams, Google Workspace with Meet, Avaya, RingCentral and 8x8 as rivals, and Five9, Genesys and NICE in contact centres.
current state · 2026-01-31written 2026-09-29
C25facthigh confidence
RingCentral's and 8x8's own 10-Ks each describe a cloud phone system and a contact centre sold to businesses, and each names Zoom among its direct competitors.
current state · 2026-03-31written 2026-09-29
C30management claimlow confidence
Zoom's CFO says there are about 130 million cloud business phone seats and about 150 million premises-equivalent seats worldwide, that 10 of Zoom's top 10 Phone deals in Q2 were takeouts from rivals, and that 5 of the top 10 carried a contact centre.
against this

No source for the seat counts was given, and the FCC's US count (C28) shows the internet-phone pool shrinking, not growing.

current state · 2026-08-25written 2026-09-29

How it makes money

Money arrives as subscriptions, mostly per seat, paid monthly or yearly. Larger customers sign contracts: $4.5B of future revenue was already signed in July, 57% of it due within a year. Small customers can leave any month, and about 2.9% of their spending does leave each month. Zoom pays staff heavily in shares, about 15% of revenue.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Zoom sells businesses two groups of cloud software by subscription. Zoom Workplace holds Meetings, Phone, Team Chat, Docs, Whiteboard, Rooms and Workvivo; Zoom Business Services, which the company now also calls Zoom CX, holds Contact Center, Zoom Virtual Agent, Revenue Accelerator and Events. AI Companion is included in paid seats at no extra charge.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C10facthigh confidence
Zoom held $4,535.9M of remaining performance obligations (contracted revenue not yet recognised) at 31 July 2026, $1,562.2M billed and $2,973.7M unbilled, and expects to recognise 57% within 12 months. The CFO put its growth at 14%.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C07facthigh confidence
Online customers cancelled or downgraded at an average of 2.9% of their monthly recurring revenue a month in Q2 FY2027, the same as a year earlier, and 2.8% a month over FY2026. Customers of 16 months or more held 75.6% of Online recurring revenue.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C14facthigh confidence
Share-based pay was $760.8M in FY2026, 15.6% of revenue, down from $931.3M, and $729.2M over the four quarters to 31 July 2026, 14.6% of revenue.
historical · FY2026 and four quarters to Q2 FY2027written 2026-09-29
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (Q2 FY2027)How it earns it
Enterprise61.7%Seat and usage subscriptions for Workplace, Phone, Contact Center and AI agents, sold by Zoom's sales force and partners to businesses, usually on annual contracts.
Online38.3%Monthly or annual self-serve subscriptions, mostly Meetings, bought by card on the website by individuals and small businesses.

Who runs it

Eric Yuan founded Zoom and has run it since 2011; Michelle Chang, ex-Microsoft, has been finance chief since 2024. Insiders own about 9% of the shares but, through ten-vote shares, nearly half the votes, most of them Yuan's. Their bonus rides mostly on sales, a little on profit; their long-term shares vest just for staying. Nothing in their pay rewards buybacks or cash.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C46facthigh confidence
Eric Yuan founded Zoom and has been chairman, president and chief executive since June 2011, after running engineering at WebEx and Cisco; Michelle Chang has been chief financial officer since October 2024, after 20 years in Microsoft finance; Velchamy Sankarlingam has led product and engineering since June 2020. The chief operating officer, Aparna Bawa, left effective 8 May 2026.
current state · 2026-03-31written 2026-10-04
C44facthigh confidence
At 31 March 2026 Eric Yuan beneficially owned 20,837,285 Class B and 74,914 Class A shares, about 7.1% of the company and 37.7% of the voting power; the 11 directors and executive officers as a group held about 8.8% of the shares and 46.1% of the votes. Vanguard (10.2% of Class A) and BlackRock (6.6%) were the largest outside holders.
current state · 2026-03-31written 2026-10-04
C45facthigh confidence
Zoom's FY2026 cash bonus paid 80% on revenue and 20% on non-GAAP operating income, capped at 200%, and paid 102.6% of target; a small performance-vesting RSU used the same two metrics, capped at 100%. Long-term equity vests on service alone, quarterly over three or four years. From FY2027 the RSU bonus is dropped for an all-cash bonus on financial and operational goals.
against this
  • Nothing in the plan pays on per-share results, free cash flow or net dollar expansion, so the buyback and retention that the case rests on cost the plan nothing.
  • The FY2027 goals are not yet disclosed, so the FY2026 weights may not carry over.
historical · FY2026written 2026-10-04
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

A phone system or a contact centre is hard to move: numbers must be transferred, call routing rebuilt and staff retrained. A meeting link is not, because it opens in any app.

The numbers show a thin hold. A year later, existing big customers spend 99 cents for every dollar they spent before, and have been below a dollar for two years. So growth comes from new customers and new products, not from existing ones buying more.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C06facthigh confidence
Zoom's trailing 12-month net dollar expansion rate for Enterprise customers was 99% at 31 July 2026, against 98% at 31 January 2026 and 2025 and 101% at 31 January 2024. The 10-K says slower hiring and seat downsells took it below 100%.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C07facthigh confidence
Online customers cancelled or downgraded at an average of 2.9% of their monthly recurring revenue a month in Q2 FY2027, the same as a year earlier, and 2.8% a month over FY2026. Customers of 16 months or more held 75.6% of Online recurring revenue.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C32inferencemedium confidence
Phone and contact-centre seats carry a switching cost that meetings do not: moving them means porting numbers, rebuilding call routing and retraining agents, while a meeting link opens in any client. So Zoom's defensible base sits in its growing enterprise products.
derivedProduct descriptions in the 10-K (C01); Enterprise retention near 100% against Online churn near 29% a year (C06, C07); Microsoft's bundling of the meeting seat (C22, C23).
against this
  • Enterprise net dollar expansion has been below 100% for over two years (C06), so even the enterprise base shrinks slightly each year.
  • Zoom Phone's own peering lets a customer keep its carrier and numbers, which lowers the switching cost Zoom itself relies on.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C23facthigh confidence
Under commitments the European Commission accepted on 12 September 2025, Microsoft sells Microsoft 365 and Office 365 suites without Teams at a minimum price gap (8 euros for E3 and E5), lets rivals reach Office data through APIs, and lets customers export Teams data, for seven to ten years.
current state · 2025-09-12written 2026-09-29

The threat

Microsoft includes Teams in the Office package most companies already pay for, and its business seats grew 6% last year. Since September 2025 European buyers can take Office without Teams for about 8 euros less a month. In contact centres, Five9 sells the same kind of AI agent to the same buyers.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C22facthigh confidence
Microsoft 365 Commercial seats grew 6% and Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenue grew 17% in Microsoft's fiscal 2026, and Teams is sold as part of that suite rather than reported on its own.
historical · Microsoft FY2026 (to 30 June 2026)written 2026-09-29
C23facthigh confidence
Under commitments the European Commission accepted on 12 September 2025, Microsoft sells Microsoft 365 and Office 365 suites without Teams at a minimum price gap (8 euros for E3 and E5), lets rivals reach Office data through APIs, and lets customers export Teams data, for seven to ten years.
current state · 2025-09-12written 2026-09-29
C26facthigh confidence
Five9's 10-K describes AI agents that handle customer conversations inside its cloud contact centre, and lists Zoom only as a communications vendor it integrates with.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-09-29

The rivals: MSFT, RNG, FIVN, EGHT.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
MSFTMicrosoft Teams, inside Microsoft 365Priced against it: One segment onlyZoom WorkplaceOn saleOne segment only
RNGRingCentral RingEXPriced against it: YesZoom WorkplaceOn saleYes
FIVNFive9 AI AgentsPriced against it: One segment onlyZoom CX and paid AIOn saleOne segment only
EGHT8x8Priced against it: Yes-On saleYes
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

The US phone regulator counts 53 million business phone lines, 83.7% already running over the internet, so most of the move off old switchboards has happened. There are about 2.7 million customer-service jobs in the US, the work AI agents compete for. Zoom's own worldwide seat counts cannot be checked.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C27facthigh confidence
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics counts 2,666,000 customer service representative jobs in 2025, projects a 5% decline to 2035 as their tasks are automated, and puts the median wage at $21.53 an hour in May 2025.
current state · 2025-05-31written 2026-09-29
C28facthigh confidence
The FCC counted 53 million US wireline business voice connections in June 2025, 83.7% of them internet-based (VoIP). Over three years, switched access lines fell 17.9% a year and VoIP subscriptions fell 2.3% a year.
current state · 2025-06-30written 2026-09-29
C30management claimlow confidence
Zoom's CFO says there are about 130 million cloud business phone seats and about 150 million premises-equivalent seats worldwide, that 10 of Zoom's top 10 Phone deals in Q2 were takeouts from rivals, and that 5 of the top 10 carried a contact centre.
against this

No source for the seat counts was given, and the FCC's US count (C28) shows the internet-phone pool shrinking, not growing.

current state · 2026-08-25written 2026-09-29
04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Slow

Sales grew 5.0% over the twelve months to Jul 2026, about the same pace as the 4.4% in the year to Jan 2026.

Jan 2022: $4.10BJan 2023: $4.39BJan 2024: $4.53BJan 2025: $4.67BJan 2026: $4.87B12 mo to Jul 2026: $4.99B$4.10B$4.99B
Is it profitable?Strong

Operating margin is 24%, up from 12% in the year to Jan 2024.

Jan 2022: 26%Jan 2023: 5.6%Jan 2024: 12%Jan 2025: 17%Jan 2026: 23%12 mo to Jul 2026: 24%26%24%
Does growth pay off?Pays off

Running costs take 54¢ of each sales dollar, up from 48¢ in the year to Jan 2022.

Jan 2022: 48¢Jan 2023: 69¢Jan 2024: 65¢Jan 2025: 58¢Jan 2026: 54¢12 mo to Jul 2026: 54¢48¢54¢
Does it earn good returns?Low

Each dollar put into the business earns 9.1% a year after tax, down from 22% in the year to Jan 2022.

Jan 2022: 22%Jan 2024: 5.7%Jan 2025: 7.4%Jan 2026: 9.4%12 mo to Jul 2026: 9.1%22%9.1%
Is it making cash?Strong

It turned 39% of sales into free cash, $1.93B over the last twelve months.

Jan 2022: $1.47BJan 2023: $1.19BJan 2024: $1.47BJan 2025: $1.81BJan 2026: $1.92B12 mo to Jul 2026: $1.93B$1.47B$1.93B
How steady is it?Swingy

Yearly sales growth has ranged from +3.1% to +55% over the last 5 years.

Jan 2022: +55%Jan 2023: +7.1%Jan 2024: +3.1%Jan 2025: +3.1%Jan 2026: +4.4%+55%+4.4%
Are shares being diluted?Stable

The share count fell 2.0% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 15% of sales.

Jan 2022: 306MJan 2023: 304MJan 2024: 309MJan 2025: 315MJan 2026: 307M12 mo to Jul 2026: 300M306M300M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in January.

Jan 2022Jan 2023Jan 2024Jan 2025Jan 202612 mo to Jul 2026
Size and growth
Sales$4.10B$4.39B$4.53B$4.67B$4.87B$4.99B
Sales growth+55%+7.1%+3.1%+3.1%+4.4%+5.0%
Profit
Gross margin74%75%76%76%77%77%
Operating margin26%5.6%12%17%23%24%
Net margin34%2.4%14%22%39%65%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development8.9%18%18%18%17%18%
Sales and marketing28%39%34%31%29%27%
General and admin12%13%13%9.5%8.1%8.2%
Pay in shares12%29%23%20%16%15%
Capital spending3.2%2.4%2.8%2.9%1.3%1.5%
Cash
Cash from operations$1.61B$1.29B$1.60B$1.95B$1.99B$2.00B
Free cash flow$1.47B$1.19B$1.47B$1.81B$1.92B$1.93B
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$5.42B$5.41B$6.96B$7.79B$7.82B$7.25B
Returns and shares
Return on capital22%-5.7%7.4%9.4%9.1%
Shares (diluted)306M304M309M315M307M300M

What growth costs

Zoom's profit margin has widened sharply since its post-pandemic low, but by cutting selling, office and stock-pay costs, not by growing fast. Research spending holds steady per dollar of sales. The cost now rising faster than sales is computing for its AI features.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C48facthigh confidence
Per sales dollar, sales and marketing fell from 38.6 cents in FY2023 to 28.5 in FY2026, general and administrative from 13.1 to 8.1 and stock pay from 29.3 to 15.6, while research and development held near 17.5 to 18.3; operating margin rose from 5.6% to 23.1% on revenue growth of 3% to 4% a year.
against this
  • Cost of revenue rose faster than revenue in Q2 FY2027 on AI hosting (C12), so the cost that tracks usage is now the one growing.
  • Part of FY2027's sales and marketing fall is accounting: the 10-K says a longer commission amortisation period cuts the line by $90.0M to $95.0M that year.
historical · FY2023 to FY2026written 2026-10-04
C12facthigh confidence
Cost of revenue rose 6.8% in Q2 FY2027 while revenue rose 4.9%, driven by $24.4M more third-party hosting that the 10-Q ties partly to AI use of new products; GAAP gross margin fell to 77.2% from 77.6%.
historical · Q2 FY2027written 2026-09-29

The last report (25 Aug)

Quarter ended July 2026, filed figures.

5%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
3.1%
Growth from the quarter before
against -0.6% the quarter before that
25¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

In the quarter to 31 July 2026, revenue grew 4.9%, a little above the company's forecast. Big-company revenue grew 7.8%, its fastest in three years; small-customer revenue grew 0.6%.

Two things took the shine off. The forecast for the next quarter is 3.9% growth, and running the new AI products cost more, so costs grew faster than sales. Reported profit jumped, but almost all of it was a $1.6B paper gain on the Anthropic stake, not the business.

What it did to the thesisIt supported the view that the big-customer half is growing while the small-customer half stays flat. It did not make the business faster: next quarter's forecast is slower, AI costs are rising, and the profit jump was a paper gain on the Anthropic stake, so the view stays Neutral.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $1.55 against $1.48 expected; $5.15 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C04facthigh confidence
Q2 FY2027 revenue was $1,277.2M, up 4.9%, or 4.7% at constant currency, $7M above the top of guidance.
historical · Q2 FY2027written 2026-09-29
C02facthigh confidence
In Q2 FY2027 (the quarter to 31 July 2026) Enterprise revenue was $787.5M, up 7.8%, and Online revenue $489.7M, up 0.6%. Enterprise was 61.7% of revenue against 60.0% a year earlier.
historical · Q2 FY2027written 2026-09-29
C05management claimmedium confidence
Management guides Q3 FY2027 revenue to $1.275-1.280B, 3.9% growth at the midpoint, and FY2027 revenue to $5.085-5.095B, 4.5% growth, with free cash flow of $1.78-1.82B.
against this
  • The FY2027 revenue guide has already been raised once, from $5.065-5.075B in February (C47), so the company has guided below its outcome this year.
  • The CFO says a white-label customer's churn costs about 40 basis points of total growth in the second half (C40), which the guide already absorbs.
forwardwritten 2026-09-29
C12facthigh confidence
Cost of revenue rose 6.8% in Q2 FY2027 while revenue rose 4.9%, driven by $24.4M more third-party hosting that the 10-Q ties partly to AI use of new products; GAAP gross margin fell to 77.2% from 77.6%.
historical · Q2 FY2027written 2026-09-29
C16facthigh confidence
GAAP net income of $1,900.1M in FY2026 included $969.8M of gains on strategic investments, and Q2 FY2027's $1,542.4M included $1,614.2M, of which $1,612.7M was an unrealised gain on the Anthropic stake after Anthropic's funding round of 28 May 2026.
historical · FY2026 and Q2 FY2027written 2026-09-29
What management did with the money

It bought back shares: the count fell 4.4% in eighteen months, using most of the cash the business produced. In July it paid $266.8M for Common Room, a sales-prospecting tool, its largest purchase yet.

Insiders in 2026Q2: 27 purchases and 85 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C19facthigh confidence
Shares outstanding fell to 292.3M at 31 July 2026 from 305.7M at 31 January 2025, a 4.4% fall. Zoom spent $1,620.7M on buybacks in FY2026, 84% of that year's free cash flow, plus $247.8M of employee tax paid by withholding shares, and $722.2M on buybacks in the first half of FY2027, with $1.3B of authorisation left.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C41facthigh confidence
Zoom paid $266.8M in cash for Common Room, an AI sales-prospecting platform, on 17 July 2026, its largest acquisition; management calls its revenue immaterial against a $5B base.
historical · Q2 FY2027written 2026-09-29
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Fair. A sensible price for a slow-growing, very profitable business, with cash and an Anthropic stake that help but cannot be spent today.

Share price
$87.30
close,
Company value for each $1 of operating profit
21.0
rivals' middle 31.9

The shares have swung hard this year. They fell 11.6% on disappointing results in February, then rose more than half by June, twice on Anthropic news rather than anything Zoom did. After the August results they fell again.

The next check is the November results, where the company promises about 3.9% growth. Separately, Anthropic's plans to list its shares could one day turn Zoom's stake into cash.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C35facthigh confidence
The shares fell 11.6% on 26 February 2026 after the Q4 FY2026 print missed earnings estimates and guided profit below them, to a 52-week low of $70.70 on 3 March; they fell 7.0% on 26 August 2026 after the Q2 FY2027 print.
historical · 2026-02 to 2026-08written 2026-09-29
C34facthigh confidence
Two of Zoom's four largest one-day rises in the past year came on Anthropic news: up 11.3% on 26 January 2026, when analysts valued the stake at $2-4B, and up 9.9% on 1 June 2026 on reports of Anthropic's listing plans.
historical · 2025-09 to 2026-09written 2026-09-29
C05management claimmedium confidence
Management guides Q3 FY2027 revenue to $1.275-1.280B, 3.9% growth at the midpoint, and FY2027 revenue to $5.085-5.095B, 4.5% growth, with free cash flow of $1.78-1.82B.
against this
  • The FY2027 revenue guide has already been raised once, from $5.065-5.075B in February (C47), so the company has guided below its outcome this year.
  • The CFO says a white-label customer's churn costs about 40 basis points of total growth in the second half (C40), which the guide already absorbs.
forwardwritten 2026-09-29
C17facthigh confidence
Zoom's preferred stock in Anthropic was carried at $3,134.5M at 31 July 2026, after a further $300.9M bought in the first half; all strategic investments were $3,785.9M. They are marked only when a same-issuer transaction is observed.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
The betSafe, little upside
If it works
1.1×
from today's value, at the stated multiple
If it fails
keep 98%
of today's market value: the rest of the company, less its debt
How we read the multiple

Buyers pay about $25.5B for Zoom. Of that, $7.25B is cash and bonds and $3.79B is stakes in private companies, mostly Anthropic.

Take those away and about $14.5B buys a business earning about $1.19B a year in operating profit, about 12 times. That asks for little more than today's business continuing, and buybacks shrinking the share count about 3% a year add to each owner's slice.

Against its own history. The profit rows look cheap only because paper gains on the Anthropic stake inflate profit; on sales it sits just under its normal, which fits slower growth.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C20estimatemedium confidence
At $87.30 on 292.3M shares the market value is about $25.52B. Less $7.25B of cash and securities it is 15.4 times trailing GAAP operating income; less also the $3.79B of strategic stakes, about $14.48B or 12.2 times, an after-tax operating yield near 6.4%.
derivedClose of $87.30 on 2026-09-28 (pack) times 292.3M filed shares (C19); cash and securities (C18) and stakes (C17) at book; operating income from C13; a 22% tax rate close to the recent effective rate.
against this
  • The stakes are carried at a private round price and cannot be sold today; valued at nothing, the multiple is 15.4 times, not 12.2.
  • The vendor's enterprise value subtracts only cash and equivalents, not the $6.3B of securities, and prints 21.0 times on the same line.
current state · 2026-09-28written 2026-09-29
C13facthigh confidence
GAAP operating income was $1,185.1M over the four quarters to 31 July 2026, a 23.7% margin on $4,993.1M of revenue, summed from the FY2026 10-K and the two six-month columns of the Q2 FY2027 10-Q. FY2026 alone was $1,123.6M, up from $813.3M.
historical · four quarters to Q2 FY2027written 2026-09-29
C18facthigh confidence
Zoom held $7,249.7M of cash and marketable securities and no borrowings at 31 July 2026.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C17facthigh confidence
Zoom's preferred stock in Anthropic was carried at $3,134.5M at 31 July 2026, after a further $300.9M bought in the first half; all strategic investments were $3,785.9M. They are marked only when a same-issuer transaction is observed.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C19facthigh confidence
Shares outstanding fell to 292.3M at 31 July 2026 from 305.7M at 31 January 2025, a 4.4% fall. Zoom spent $1,620.7M on buybacks in FY2026, 84% of that year's free cash flow, plus $247.8M of employee tax paid by withholding shares, and $722.2M on buybacks in the first half of FY2027, with $1.3B of authorisation left.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
Priced against its rivals

The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of operating profit, cheapest first:

TickerCompanycompany value for each $1 of operating profit
ZMZoom Communications21.0×
EGHT8x821.7×
RNGRingCentral42.1×

The middle of the other 2 is 31.9. Zoom Communications, Inc. is cheapest of 3.

Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.

Cheapest of the three on this measure while earning far wider margins than either rival, so the gap is Zoom's own, not the whole group's.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: GoTo, Avaya, Genesys.

The bet: what it pays if it works

The bet is on Zoom's contact-centre software and the AI products it charges for, which Zoom does not report on their own. Its meetings and phone business, cash and stakes are counted apart, at the price this thesis already calls fair.

If these products keep growing fast, the shares gain only a little, because they are small next to the rest of Zoom. If they never earn, shareholders keep nearly all of today's value. Today's price asks little of them, so the option is fairly priced.

Zoom CX and paid AI revenue in two to three yearsCustomers spending $100,000 a year on CX and paid AI neededAt the stated multiple
$250.00Mabout 2.5K at 100% kept1.0×
$400.00M (the big win)about 4.0K at 100% kept1.1×
$600.00Mabout 6.0K at 100% kept1.1×

To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $5.25B of Zoom CX and paid AI revenue (about 52.5K customers spending $100,000 a year on CX and paid AI); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $20.69B of Zoom CX and paid AI revenue (about 206.9K customers spending $100,000 a year on CX and paid AI), at the same multiple.

Each row is Zoom CX and paid AI alone, plus the rest of the company (Zoom Workplace, with the cash, securities and stakes) counted at about $25.20B.

The steps it has to take

  • Done Zoom CX passes $100M of recurring revenue
  • Done ZoomMate launched for Workplace users
  • Not started Zoom states a new CX milestone or files CX revenue due 2027-03
  • Not started Enterprise revenue growth reaches 10% due 2027-07
  • Not started CX and paid AI reach about $400M a year due 2029-01
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet at about
$18.45
79% below the price (close, )
The option
3.7×
what Zoom CX and paid AI is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C11management claimlow confidence
Management says Zoom CX recurring revenue grows at a high double-digit rate after passing $100M five quarters earlier, Zoom Virtual Agent's customer count rose 256%, Phone recurring revenue grows in the teens, and Workvivo passed $100M of recurring revenue. None of these is filed.
against this
  • Zoom reports one segment and files no revenue for Phone, Contact Center or Virtual Agent, so none of these rates can be checked.
  • The CFO declined on the call to update the Contact Center milestone beyond the $100M given five quarters earlier.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C51management claimlow confidence
On the Q2 FY2027 call management said paid AI was in 9 of the top 10 Zoom CX deals, Zoom set a record for seven-figure CX deals, ZoomMate launched in June 2026 for Workplace users and Revenue Accelerator's paid customers grew 41%; the chief financial officer declined to update the $100M CX milestone, saying investors could 'sort of guesstimate from there'.
against this
  • No CX or AI revenue is filed: Zoom reports one segment and revenue only by customer type and region (C50).
  • AI Companion itself is included in paid seats at no extra charge (C01), so much of the AI on offer earns nothing on its own.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-11
C20estimatemedium confidence
At $87.30 on 292.3M shares the market value is about $25.52B. Less $7.25B of cash and securities it is 15.4 times trailing GAAP operating income; less also the $3.79B of strategic stakes, about $14.48B or 12.2 times, an after-tax operating yield near 6.4%.
derivedClose of $87.30 on 2026-09-28 (pack) times 292.3M filed shares (C19); cash and securities (C18) and stakes (C17) at book; operating income from C13; a 22% tax rate close to the recent effective rate.
against this
  • The stakes are carried at a private round price and cannot be sold today; valued at nothing, the multiple is 15.4 times, not 12.2.
  • The vendor's enterprise value subtracts only cash and equivalents, not the $6.3B of securities, and prints 21.0 times on the same line.
current state · 2026-09-28written 2026-09-29
C13facthigh confidence
GAAP operating income was $1,185.1M over the four quarters to 31 July 2026, a 23.7% margin on $4,993.1M of revenue, summed from the FY2026 10-K and the two six-month columns of the Q2 FY2027 10-Q. FY2026 alone was $1,123.6M, up from $813.3M.
historical · four quarters to Q2 FY2027written 2026-09-29
C17facthigh confidence
Zoom's preferred stock in Anthropic was carried at $3,134.5M at 31 July 2026, after a further $300.9M bought in the first half; all strategic investments were $3,785.9M. They are marked only when a same-issuer transaction is observed.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C18facthigh confidence
Zoom held $7,249.7M of cash and marketable securities and no borrowings at 31 July 2026.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

A stalled pandemic winner, worth owning mainly for its cash and as a cheap way into Anthropic.

We believe

The stake is real, but the business matters more: a growing big-customer half against a flat small-customer half.

Most analysts rate it a hold, and the biggest price jumps this year came on Anthropic headlines. The market is pricing the stake and each forecast, one at a time.

Where we could be wrong: if big-customer growth climbs above 10% and existing customers start spending more each year, today's price would be cheap, not fair.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
60%
of 30, 1 Sep
Four months earlier
53%
of 32, 1 May
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C33factmedium confidence
Analysts rate Zoom 19 buy, 27 hold and 3 sell (Hold). The positive share was 60% of 30 analysts on 1 September 2026 against 50% of 34 on 1 January 2026.
current state · 2026-09-01written 2026-09-29
C34facthigh confidence
Two of Zoom's four largest one-day rises in the past year came on Anthropic news: up 11.3% on 26 January 2026, when analysts valued the stake at $2-4B, and up 9.9% on 1 June 2026 on reports of Anthropic's listing plans.
historical · 2025-09 to 2026-09written 2026-09-29
C20estimatemedium confidence
At $87.30 on 292.3M shares the market value is about $25.52B. Less $7.25B of cash and securities it is 15.4 times trailing GAAP operating income; less also the $3.79B of strategic stakes, about $14.48B or 12.2 times, an after-tax operating yield near 6.4%.
derivedClose of $87.30 on 2026-09-28 (pack) times 292.3M filed shares (C19); cash and securities (C18) and stakes (C17) at book; operating income from C13; a 22% tax rate close to the recent effective rate.
against this
  • The stakes are carried at a private round price and cannot be sold today; valued at nothing, the multiple is 15.4 times, not 12.2.
  • The vendor's enterprise value subtracts only cash and equivalents, not the $6.3B of securities, and prints 21.0 times on the same line.
current state · 2026-09-28written 2026-09-29
C02facthigh confidence
In Q2 FY2027 (the quarter to 31 July 2026) Enterprise revenue was $787.5M, up 7.8%, and Online revenue $489.7M, up 0.6%. Enterprise was 61.7% of revenue against 60.0% a year earlier.
historical · Q2 FY2027written 2026-09-29
C06facthigh confidence
Zoom's trailing 12-month net dollar expansion rate for Enterprise customers was 99% at 31 July 2026, against 98% at 31 January 2026 and 2025 and 101% at 31 January 2024. The 10-K says slower hiring and seat downsells took it below 100%.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • Teams comes free. Microsoft bundles Teams with Office, so a meeting seat on its own struggles to hold its price.
  • Small customers stalling. Self-serve revenue slowed from 2.6% growth to 0.6% in two quarters, and the company now expects it flat.
  • Existing customers shrinking. Big customers spend 99 cents a year later for each dollar before, so growth needs constant new wins.
  • AI costs money to run. Hosting costs for the new AI products pushed costs up faster than sales last quarter.
  • A paper stake. The Anthropic stake is valued at a private funding round and cannot be sold today.
  • The founder controls votes. Special shares with ten votes each hold 51.8% of the voting power.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C22facthigh confidence
Microsoft 365 Commercial seats grew 6% and Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenue grew 17% in Microsoft's fiscal 2026, and Teams is sold as part of that suite rather than reported on its own.
historical · Microsoft FY2026 (to 30 June 2026)written 2026-09-29
C08management claimmedium confidence
The CFO cut the FY2027 Online outlook from slight growth to flat, citing fewer buyers finding Zoom through search as they turn to AI tools, and called it prudence rather than rising churn.
against this
  • Online growth has slowed quarter by quarter, from 2.6% in Q4 FY2026 (C47) to 0.6% in Q2 FY2027 (C02), which reads as a trend rather than a one-quarter search effect.
  • Management has not quantified the search effect, and churn at 2.9% a month (C07) is not falling.
forwardwritten 2026-09-29
C06facthigh confidence
Zoom's trailing 12-month net dollar expansion rate for Enterprise customers was 99% at 31 July 2026, against 98% at 31 January 2026 and 2025 and 101% at 31 January 2024. The 10-K says slower hiring and seat downsells took it below 100%.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C12facthigh confidence
Cost of revenue rose 6.8% in Q2 FY2027 while revenue rose 4.9%, driven by $24.4M more third-party hosting that the 10-Q ties partly to AI use of new products; GAAP gross margin fell to 77.2% from 77.6%.
historical · Q2 FY2027written 2026-09-29
C17facthigh confidence
Zoom's preferred stock in Anthropic was carried at $3,134.5M at 31 July 2026, after a further $300.9M bought in the first half; all strategic investments were $3,785.9M. They are marked only when a same-issuer transaction is observed.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C40facthigh confidence
Class B shares carry 10 votes each and held 51.8% of the voting power at 31 January 2026; the founder and chief executive, Eric Yuan, controls a large part of it.
current state · 2026-01-31written 2026-09-29
What we still do not know
  • How much Zoom Phone, the contact centre and the AI agents each earn. Zoom reports none of them separately.
  • Why the forecast implies second-half cash flow about 13% below last year when the first half was flat.
  • What the Anthropic stake would fetch in cash, and when Zoom could sell it.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C11management claimlow confidence
Management says Zoom CX recurring revenue grows at a high double-digit rate after passing $100M five quarters earlier, Zoom Virtual Agent's customer count rose 256%, Phone recurring revenue grows in the teens, and Workvivo passed $100M of recurring revenue. None of these is filed.
against this
  • Zoom reports one segment and files no revenue for Phone, Contact Center or Virtual Agent, so none of these rates can be checked.
  • The CFO declined on the call to update the Contact Center milestone beyond the $100M given five quarters earlier.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29
C43estimatemedium confidence
The FY2027 guide implies second-half revenue growth of about 3.9% after 5.2% in the first half, and second-half free cash flow about 13% lower than a year earlier while first-half free cash flow was flat.
derivedGuide midpoints of $5,090M revenue and $1,800M free cash flow (C05) less first-half actuals of $2,516.2M and $972.9M (C15), against the prior year's second half of $2,476.8M and $952.8M.
against this
  • Zoom has guided below its outcome this year (C42), so the implied slowdown may be conservatism.
  • Free cash flow is lumpy: the CFO says an extended data-centre life added about $40M to this year's guide.
forwardwritten 2026-09-29
C17facthigh confidence
Zoom's preferred stock in Anthropic was carried at $3,134.5M at 31 July 2026, after a further $300.9M bought in the first half; all strategic investments were $3,785.9M. They are marked only when a same-issuer transaction is observed.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-09-29

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveA cheaper price on an unchanged business

    It needs all of:

    • ○The business, after cash, falls to 12 times its yearly operating profit.about ≈$76.16 today, 13% below the last close
    • ○Revenue keeps growing at 3.5% a year or more.checked at the next results, due by 23 Nov
  2. Neutral→AttractiveThe enterprise half accelerates and retention turns positive

    It needs all of:

    • ○Big-customer revenue grows 10% or more.checked at the next results, due by 23 Nov
    • ○Existing big customers spend at least $1.01 a year later for each dollar before.checked at the next results, due by 23 Nov
  3. Neutral→UnattractiveThe self-serve half starts shrinking

    It needs any of:

    • ○Small-customer revenue falls 3% or more from a year earlier.checked at the next results, due by 23 Nov
    • ○Existing big customers fall to 96 cents a year later for each dollar before.checked at the next results, due by 23 Nov
We would also be wrong if
  • Big-customer revenue grows less than 5% for two quarters running.
  • Operating profit falls below 20 cents per dollar of sales for a full year.

What is coming

  • 23 November 2026 Q3 FY2027 results: Enterprise growth against 7.5% and Online against zero, net dollar expansion against 99%, and why the guide implies second-half free cash flow about 13% lower.
Every dated event ahead
  • 23 November 2026 Q3 FY2027 results: Enterprise growth against 7.5% and Online against zero, net dollar expansion against 99%, and why the guide implies second-half free cash flow about 13% lower.
  • February 2027 Q4 FY2027 results and the FY2028 guide: Whether growth holds near 4% into FY2028 and whether selling costs keep falling per sales dollar beyond the commission accounting change.
  • April 2027 2027 proxy statement: Which goals the first all-cash bonus paid on, and whether any pay now rides on per-share results or free cash flow.
Since we wrote this
Written
29 Sep
Price the thesis read
$87.30
28 Sep
  • 11 OctThesis reviewZoom CX and paid AI declared early, with a bet on themThe owner asked every thesis to name its product lines; Zoom files no revenue for CX or its AI products.
  • 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
  • 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
  • 29 SepThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionThe business grows about 4% with a flat self-serve half and a bundled rival; after removing cash and stakes the price is fair, not cheap.

Also checked 1 time with nothing new to act on.

Sources 23

Where this came from

Sources - 23

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-27
    Item 1 products and named competitors, risk factors, key metrics (net dollar expansion, online churn, $100K customers), statements, share pay, buybacks, strategic investments, dual-class voting, customer concentration
    backsC01C03C06C07C13C14C15C16C19C21C36C39C40C47C48C49
  2. S02primarycompany filing2026-08-26
    statements, Anthropic stake and its unrealised gain, remaining performance obligations, Enterprise and Online revenue, cost of revenue drivers, Common Room purchase, buybacks, share counts
    backsC01C02C04C06C07C09C10C12C13C14C15C16C17C18C19C41C47C50
  3. S03primarycompany filing2026-08-25
    Enterprise and Online revenue, raised FY2027 guide, Q3 guide, non-GAAP reconciliation, free cash flow, CEO quote on Virtual Agent customer growth
    backsC02C04C05C09C11C15C42
  4. S04primarytranscript2026-08-25
    Q2 FY2027 earnings call transcript (FMP)
    data/cache/transcripts/ZM-2027Q2.json
    management answers on Phone, Contact Center, Virtual Agent, Online outlook, pricing, AI costs and the white-label churn; region growth rates; 22 analyst turns from 14 analysts, one on OpenAI and CRM vendors entering contact-centre voice
    there is about, I think, 130-some-odd cloud seats and about 150 million equivalent on-prem
    backsC05C08C10C11C12C24C30C31C38C41C51
  5. S05primarycompany filing2026-02-25
    Q4 FY2026 and FY2026 Enterprise and Online revenue, the first FY2027 guide
    backsC42
  6. S06primarycompany filing2026-07-29
    Teams sold inside Microsoft 365 Commercial; Microsoft 365 Commercial seat and cloud revenue growth
    backsC22
  7. S07primarycompany release2025-09-12
    the commitments: suites without Teams at a set price gap, interoperability APIs, data export, and their duration
    Microsoft has committed to make available APIs that enable access to customer data from Microsoft Entra ID, Microsoft Exchange Online, Microsoft SharePoint Online, and Microsoft OneDrive.
    backsC23
  8. S08secondaryother2025-09-17
    the Commission's stated concern (tying Teams, a distribution advantage, interoperability limits), quoting its 2024 press release
    abused its dominant position in the market for Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) productivity applications
    backsC23
  9. S09primarycompany filing2026-02-27
    the same cloud phone and contact-centre product; names Zoom Communications as a competitor
    backsC25
  10. S10primarycompany filing2026-05-22
    the same cloud phone and contact-centre product; names Zoom among cloud-native competitors
    backsC25
  11. S11primarycompany filing2026-02-20
    AI agents inside a cloud contact centre; Zoom listed as a communications vendor it integrates with
    backsC26
  12. S12primarygovernment data2026-09-29
    jobs in 2025 (2,666,000) and the 2025-2035 projection
    Employment of customer service representatives is projected to decline 5 percent from 2025 to 2035.
    backsC27
  13. S13primarygovernment data2026-09-29
    median hourly wage, May 2025
    The median hourly wage for customer service representatives was $21.53 in May 2025.
    backsC27
  14. S14primaryregulator2026-05-01
    retail voice connections by type and their three-year growth rates
    interconnected VoIP subscriptions declined at a compound annual growth rate of 2.3%, mobile voice subscriptions increased at a compound annual growth rate of 2.5%, and retail switched access lines declined at a compound annual growth rate of 17.9% per year
    backsC28
  15. S15primaryregulator2026-05-01
    the business wireline connection count and its mix
    the 53 million wireline business connections were: 11.8% ILEC switched access lines, 81.5% non-ILEC interconnected VoIP subscriptions, 2.2% ILEC interconnected VoIP subscriptions, and 4.6% non-ILEC switched access
    backsC28
  16. S16secondaryvendor data2026-09-29
    ZM research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, headcount), frozen 2026-09-29
    content/ZM/research-pack.json
    close of $87.30 on 2026-09-28, daily bars, analyst split and its history, earnings beats, cohort multiples for RingCentral and 8x8, headcount from 10-K filings, short interest
    backsC33C34C35C36C42
  17. S17primarycompany filing2026-09-10
    169 open-market sales and no purchases; the Rule 10b5-1 flag on each
    backsC37
  18. S18tertiarynews2026-01-26
    the coverage on the day of the 11.3% rise
    backsC34
  19. S19tertiarynews2026-06-01
    the coverage on the day of the 9.9% rise
    backsC34
  20. S20secondarynews2026-02-25
    the stated objection after the Q4 FY2026 print
    backsC35
  21. S21primarycompany filing2026-09-29
    every filing since the Q2 FY2027 10-Q: Forms 4 and 144 and one 8-K on a board change
    read, but no claim rests on it
  22. S22primarycompany filing2026-04-30
    beneficial ownership and voting power at 31 March 2026, executive officers and tenures, the FY2026 bonus and performance-vesting RSU metrics, weights and payouts, the FY2027 move to an all-cash bonus and annual refresh grants
    backsC44C45C46
  23. S23primarycompany filing2024-03-04
    FY2022 to FY2024 income statements, stock pay by line and costs as a share of revenue
    backsC47C48
Rendered from content/ZM/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-11. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.