Excelerate rents out ships that turn imported LNG back into gas at a country's port, and sells some of those countries the gas as well.
Our viewNeutralMedium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑
Adjusted EBITDA rose 29% in 2025 and is guided up about 12% in 2026, but most of 2025's rise was Jamaica, bought.
Business quality3/4 →
Scarce ships keep every owned FSRU contracted and renewals rising, but the scarcity is a cycle that newbuilds, conversions and onshore terminals can end.
Financial position3/4 ↓
Net debt near $898M, 1.9 times EBITDA, with notes due 2030 and an undrawn $500M line; growth spending exceeds free cash.
Execution record3/4 →
Jamaica was integrated and Acadia delivered early, but Iraq slipped a year and 2026 guidance was cut once, both blamed on the war.
Per share capture3/4 →
Shares steady and buybacks cover stock pay, but Class A owns 28% and the tax agreement favours the controlling holder.
Potential3/4 →
A bounded upside that is mostly signed: Iraq, Colombia and Bangladesh have contracts; the converted ship and new markets do not.
Risk profile2/4 ↓
Iraq's start depends on work inside a Gulf at war, Qatar's supply is suspended, and customers are emerging-market states.
Valuation3/4 →
About 10 times trailing EBITDA and 20 times earnings: fair for the fleet plus Iraq and Colombia arriving roughly on time.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Contracts, results and debt are filed and the scarcity is measured by the GECF; ship rates and Iraq's return are management's word.
The Verdict
We rate Excelerate Neutral. The business is solid: it owns the largest fleet of floating gas import terminals, ships are scarce, so every one it owns is rented out on long contracts and renewals pay more. The price is fair: about 10 times its yearly earnings before interest, tax and depreciation, which already counts on a new terminal in Iraq starting in 2027 and adding about a fifth to earnings. That terminal sits inside the Persian Gulf, where this year's war has already pushed it back a year and cut off Qatar's gas. The view hinges on Iraq arriving on time.
The long caseAs new LNG floods the market, countries that need gas fast rent floating terminals, few are free, and Excelerate owns the most and charges more each time one renews.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Excelerate owns, charters and runs floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs). At the end of 2025 it controlled or operated 11 floating terminals and had a twelfth under construction; it owns nine and charters three. In Jamaica it also owns an onshore terminal and a power and steam plant.
A buyer that needs an import terminal within two years must charter an existing FSRU, and few are free; that is why every owned Excelerate ship is contracted and five have recontracted at higher rates.
FSRU utilisation fell to 35% in 2025 (C25), so ships sit idle at some ports, and Excelerate itself is converting a carrier, as rivals can.
current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-07
C13management claimmedium confidence
Management says the Colombian charter lifts the Express's annual EBITDA about 35% on its current contract, and that it is the fifth ship in the existing fleet recontracted on better terms in four and a half years, with the market tight into the 2030s.
Per-ship rates are not disclosed, so the uplift cannot be checked; the GECF counts FSRU utilisation falling to 35% in 2025 (C25).
current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-07
C24inferencemedium confidence
At $34.60, 113.4M Class A and B shares are worth about $3,925M; with about $898M of net debt the business is valued at about $4,822M: 10.0 times trailing adjusted EBITDA of $484.1M, 9.6 times the 2026 guidance midpoint and about 20 times trailing net income of $194.2M.
The pack's vendor market value of $4.06B counts issued rather than outstanding Class A shares and misses the Class B, so vendor multiples do not match this arithmetic.
current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-07
C11inferencemedium confidence
At about 5 times its $520M to $550M cost, Iraq would add roughly $105M to $110M of adjusted EBITDA a year once running, about a fifth of the 2026 guidance midpoint.
Part of the 5x return is gas supply margin, which depends on cargoes reaching a Gulf port; management has not split it between terminal, ship and supply.
forwardwritten 2026-10-07
C09facthigh confidence
In October 2025 Excelerate signed Iraq's first LNG import terminal with a subsidiary of the Ministry of Electricity: five years of regasification and LNG supply with extension options and a minimum offtake of 250 million cubic feet a day. It now expects operations early in Q2 2027 at Khor Al Zubair.
The start was pushed from 2026 into 2027 in May 2026 (C10), and the site lies inside the Gulf behind the strait the conflict closed.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-07
C08management claimmedium confidence
In March 2026 QatarEnergy declared force majeure on its supply after the conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz, and Excelerate passed it to Petrobangla. Management puts the cost at about $1M a month while the strait stays closed.
The 10-Q says the timing of the end of force majeure cannot be known; Qatar's damaged trains may take up to five years to repair (C27).
current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-07
01
The company
A country that wants to import liquefied natural gas needs a terminal to store it and warm it back into gas. Building one on land costs over $1B and takes four to seven years.
Excelerate rents out a ship that does the same job: it moors at the port, takes LNG from visiting tankers and pipes gas ashore. It runs 12 of them, the newest delivered in April 2026, for customers from Argentina and Brazil to Bangladesh, Germany and the UAE.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Excelerate owns, charters and runs floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs). At the end of 2025 it controlled or operated 11 floating terminals and had a twelfth under construction; it owns nine and charters three. In Jamaica it also owns an onshore terminal and a power and steam plant.
The twelfth, Excelerate Acadia, was delivered in April 2026: 170,000 cubic metres of storage and 1,000 million cubic feet a day of send-out. It has served Jordan's National Electric Power Company at Aqaba under a nine-month charter since July 2026.
The 10-K says every owned floating terminal is under contract, at fixed daily rates with inflation escalators, with customers bearing most operating costs. Customers A, B and C took 18%, 12% and 10% of 2025 revenue, and about 20% of fixed assets sit in Jamaica.
The GECF says most of the 50 FSRUs are on long charters through 2030, leaving almost none free, that newbuilds now take about four years and conversions 18 to 24 months, and that an onshore terminal costs over $1B and takes four to seven years.
A dollar arrives in two ways. Customers pay a fixed daily rent for each ship, rising with inflation, and bear most of its running costs: $596.6M in 2025.
Excelerate also buys LNG and resells it at a small markup, to Bangladesh under a 15-year contract and in Jamaica and Brazil. That brought in $631.6M in 2025, but $537.8M of it went on buying the gas. The rent is where the profit is.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C03facthigh confidence
In 2025 revenue was $1,228.3M: terminal services $596.6M and LNG, gas and power $631.6M, against $537.8M of LNG bought. Net income was $167.0M, of which $39.2M was Class A shareholders'. Adjusted EBITDA was $449.3M against $348.2M in 2024, with $69.9M from Jamaica, bought in May 2025.
The 10-K says every owned floating terminal is under contract, at fixed daily rates with inflation escalators, with customers bearing most operating costs. Customers A, B and C took 18%, 12% and 10% of 2025 revenue, and about 20% of fixed assets sit in Jamaica.
Excelerate sells LNG to Petrobangla under a 15-year agreement: 0.85 million tonnes a year in 2026 and 2027 and 1.0 million tonnes a year from 2028 to 2040, priced on Brent and matched back to back with a supply contract with QatarEnergy.
At 30 June 2026 contracts held $17,340.6M of revenue still to be recognised, priced on commodity futures: $1,573.5M in 2027, $2,134.1M in 2028 and $9,310.0M after 2030. At the end of 2025 terminal services contracts carried $3,315.2M of minimum cash flows over a weighted 5.8 years.
Most of the $17.3B is LNG resold at cost plus a margin, priced on futures, so it overstates contracted profit; terminal contracts carry early termination rights with fees.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-07
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
Stream
Share of sales (FY 2025)
How it earns it
Terminal services
48.6%
Charters of FSRUs and Jamaica's terminals at fixed daily rates, with operating costs largely passed to customers.
LNG, gas and power
51.4%
LNG and gas resold back to back to Petrobangla, in Jamaica and Brazil, and power and steam from Jamaica's plant.
Who runs it
Steven Kobos, once the company's lawyer, has run the business since 2018. George Kaiser's holding company controls 71.9% of the votes, so outside shareholders have little say; directors and officers own 2.34% of the listed shares.
The bonus pays mostly on earnings and new business, and from 2026 long-term awards pay on three-year earnings growth. No insider bought shares on the market in the past year; one sold 6,000.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C19facthigh confidence
Steven Kobos, formerly the company's counsel, has run the business since 2018 and the listed company since 2021; Dana Armstrong has been finance chief since 2020, David Liner operating chief since 2023 and Oliver Simpson commercial chief since 2023.
George Kaiser's EE Holdings controls 71.9% of the votes, so Excelerate is a controlled company. Directors and officers hold 2.34% of the Class A shares, chief executive Steven Kobos 1.50%.
Kobos was paid $6.1M for 2025. The bonus weighs incentive adjusted EBITDA at 45%, new business at 25%, safety at 10% and strategy at 20%; half of long-term pay is performance shares, which from 2026 pay on three-year EBITDA growth and total return against an energy fund.
historical · FY 2025 and 2026 awardswritten 2026-10-07
C21facthigh confidence
In the year to October 2026 insiders made no open-market purchases and one open-market sale, Oliver Simpson's 6,000 shares at $34.15 on 20 March 2026, outside any plan; the rest were grants and tax withholding.
historical · October 2025 to October 2026written 2026-10-07
02
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
The advantage is that the ships are scarce. Most of the world's 50 are rented out through 2030, a new one takes about four years to build and a conversion about two. A country that needs gas soon has to rent a ship that already exists.
That shows in the prices. Every ship Excelerate owns is under contract, and management says the Express's new seven-year deal in Colombia pays about 35% more, the fifth renewal at better terms in four and a half years.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C26facthigh confidence
The GECF says most of the 50 FSRUs are on long charters through 2030, leaving almost none free, that newbuilds now take about four years and conversions 18 to 24 months, and that an onshore terminal costs over $1B and takes four to seven years.
A buyer that needs an import terminal within two years must charter an existing FSRU, and few are free; that is why every owned Excelerate ship is contracted and five have recontracted at higher rates.
FSRU utilisation fell to 35% in 2025 (C25), so ships sit idle at some ports, and Excelerate itself is converting a carrier, as rivals can.
current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-07
C13management claimmedium confidence
Management says the Colombian charter lifts the Express's annual EBITDA about 35% on its current contract, and that it is the fifth ship in the existing fleet recontracted on better terms in four and a half years, with the market tight into the 2030s.
Per-ship rates are not disclosed, so the uplift cannot be checked; the GECF counts FSRU utilisation falling to 35% in 2025 (C25).
current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-07
C25facthigh confidence
The GECF counts 50 FSRUs operating by early 2026 with 197 million tonnes a year of capacity, about 20% of world regasification. FSRUs took 70 million tonnes of LNG in 2025, 17% of world imports, at 35% utilisation against 41% in 2024.
The 10-K says every owned floating terminal is under contract, at fixed daily rates with inflation escalators, with customers bearing most operating costs. Customers A, B and C took 18%, 12% and 10% of 2025 revenue, and about 20% of fixed assets sit in Jamaica.
Other owners rent out the same ships: Höegh Evi, a private Norwegian owner, has them in Germany, Australia, Colombia and Brazil, and Energos owns the ships New Fortress Energy uses. Rivals can also convert old tankers.
The slow threat is the customer building its own terminal on land and handing the ship back when the charter ends.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C32factmedium confidence
Höegh Evi, a private owner, charters FSRUs to Germany at Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbüttel, to Australia at Port Kembla, to Colombia at Cartagena and to Brazil, and is converting one for Egypt.
New Fortress Energy, which sold Jamaica to Excelerate, runs two FSRUs and LNG-to-power plants, leases most of its ships from Energos Infrastructure, and reported substantial doubt about continuing as a going concern. Its 10-K calls FSRUs less costly and much faster to deploy than onshore terminals.
The GECF says most of the 50 FSRUs are on long charters through 2030, leaving almost none free, that newbuilds now take about four years and conversions 18 to 24 months, and that an onshore terminal costs over $1B and takes four to seven years.
The 10-K names no rival, only classes: other FSRU owners, from large public companies to small private ones, LNG sellers and LNG-to-power developers. It warns that rivals may buy existing ships, order newbuilds or convert carriers.
The rivals:NFE, and 4 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
Ticker
Rival
Where it competes
How far along
Priced against it
Private
Höegh EviPriced against it: Private
Terminal services
On sale
Private
Private
Energos InfrastructurePriced against it: Private
Terminal services
On sale
Private
NFE
New Fortress EnergyPriced against it: Different product
LNG, gas and power
On sale
Different product
In-house
Onshore import terminals built by buyersPriced against it: In-house
Terminal services
On sale
In-house
Mitsui O.S.K. LinesPriced against it: One segment only
-
On sale
One segment only
03
How big it could get
How big this could get
The world is adding 235 million tonnes a year of LNG supply from 2026 to 2030, more than 40% on top of today's. If floating terminals keep their fifth of import capacity, that needs about 12 more of them.
Excelerate already runs about a quarter of the fleet. But the existing ships worked at only 35% of capacity in 2025, so part of the new supply can flow through them first.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C28factmedium confidence
The GECF expects 235 million tonnes a year of new liquefaction capacity between 2026 and 2030, on top of 551 million tonnes, and calls the FSRU a bridge for markets such as Jordan, Colombia, the Philippines and Brazil.
Forecast capacity has slipped before, and the Gulf war has delayed Qatar's own expansion (C27).
forwardwritten 2026-10-07
C25facthigh confidence
The GECF counts 50 FSRUs operating by early 2026 with 197 million tonnes a year of capacity, about 20% of world regasification. FSRUs took 70 million tonnes of LNG in 2025, 17% of world imports, at 35% utilisation against 41% in 2024.
If FSRUs keep about 20% of regasification as 235 million tonnes of new supply arrives, the market needs about 47 million tonnes a year of new floating capacity by 2030, about 12 more FSRUs at today's average of 3.9 million tonnes each.
Utilisation is only 35% (C25), so existing ships could take much of the new supply before any new one is needed, and large buyers build onshore.
forwardwritten 2026-10-07
C01facthigh confidence
Excelerate owns, charters and runs floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs). At the end of 2025 it controlled or operated 11 floating terminals and had a twelfth under construction; it owns nine and charters three. In Jamaica it also owns an onshore terminal and a power and steam plant.
The twelfth, Excelerate Acadia, was delivered in April 2026: 170,000 cubic metres of storage and 1,000 million cubic feet a day of send-out. It has served Jordan's National Electric Power Company at Aqaba under a nine-month charter since July 2026.
Bangladesh's Petrobangla buys LNG under a 15-year contract to 2040, though Qatar's supply behind it is suspended. Iraq signed five years of terminal and gas at a minimum flow. A Colombian port signed seven years for the Express, and Jordan nine months for the newest ship.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C07facthigh confidence
Excelerate sells LNG to Petrobangla under a 15-year agreement: 0.85 million tonnes a year in 2026 and 2027 and 1.0 million tonnes a year from 2028 to 2040, priced on Brent and matched back to back with a supply contract with QatarEnergy.
In October 2025 Excelerate signed Iraq's first LNG import terminal with a subsidiary of the Ministry of Electricity: five years of regasification and LNG supply with extension options and a minimum offtake of 250 million cubic feet a day. It now expects operations early in Q2 2027 at Khor Al Zubair.
The start was pushed from 2026 into 2027 in May 2026 (C10), and the site lies inside the Gulf behind the strait the conflict closed.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-07
C12facthigh confidence
In June 2026 Excelerate signed a seven-year charter, with extension options, with Sociedad Portuaria Puerto Bahia, a Frontera Energy subsidiary, to move the FSRU Express to a new terminal under development in Colombia from Q1 2027. In July it agreed to buy the LNG carrier Methane Patricia Camila for its first FSRU conversion, to work from early 2028.
The twelfth, Excelerate Acadia, was delivered in April 2026: 170,000 cubic metres of storage and 1,000 million cubic feet a day of send-out. It has served Jordan's National Electric Power Company at Aqaba under a nine-month charter since July 2026.
In March 2026 QatarEnergy declared force majeure on its supply after the conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz, and Excelerate passed it to Petrobangla. Management puts the cost at about $1M a month while the strait stays closed.
The 10-Q says the timing of the end of force majeure cannot be known; Qatar's damaged trains may take up to five years to repair (C27).
current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-07
04
The results
The numbers
Is it growing?Fast
Sales grew 49% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, about the same pace as the 44% in the year to Dec 2025.
Is it profitable?Strong
Operating margin is 22%, up from 18% in the year to Dec 2023.
How steady is it?Swingy
Yearly sales growth has ranged from −53% to +178% over the last 5 years, with sales falling in 2 of them.
Does it earn good returns?Low
Each dollar put into the business earns 8.8% a year after tax, about where it was (9.2%) in the year to Dec 2021.
Is it making cash?Thin
It turned 1.6% of sales into free cash, $24.1M over the last twelve months, after spending 25% of sales on buildings and equipment.
Is the balance sheet safe?Light debt
It owes $584M more than the cash it holds, about 1.5 years of the cash its operations bring in.
Are shares being diluted?Diluting
The share count rose 23% in 3.5 years, and pay in shares costs 0.9% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-07. Fiscal years end in December.
Dec 2021
Dec 2022
Dec 2023
Dec 2024
Dec 2025
12 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales
$889M
$2.47B
$1.16B
$851M
$1.23B
$1.47B
Sales growth
+106%
+178%
−53%
−27%
+44%
+49%
Profit
Operating margin
16%
7.5%
18%
25%
22%
22%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
General and admin
5.3%
2.7%
7.5%
11%
7.7%
6.8%
Pay in shares
-
0.0%
0.3%
0.9%
1.0%
0.9%
Capital spending
4.1%
4.8%
27%
13%
13%
25%
Cash
Cash from operations
$142M
$225M
$232M
$244M
$461M
$394M
Free cash flow
$106M
$106M
−$80.8M
$131M
$298M
$24.1M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments
$72.8M
$517M
$556M
$538M
$538M
$342M
Debt
$233M
$214M
$376M
$334M
$936M
$926M
Net cash
−$161M
$302M
$180M
$204M
−$398M
−$584M
Returns and shares
Return on capital
9.2%
8.8%
8.1%
8.3%
8.5%
8.8%
Shares (diluted)
0
26.3M
108M
25.8M
30.6M
32.4M
What growth costs
Growth has widened the margin. Operating income nearly doubled from 2021 to 2025 while overheads rose from $47M to $95M. What growth costs now is ships and terminals: $369M of capital spending in the year to June 2026, against about $500M of yearly earnings.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C38facthigh confidence
General and administrative cost was $47.1M in 2021 and $94.5M in 2025, while operating income rose from $139.3M to $266.7M; stock pay was $12.0M in 2025. Capital spending was $163.0M in 2025 and $369.4M over the year to June 2026.
historical · FY 2021 to June 2026written 2026-10-07
C34facthigh confidence
Adjusted EBITDA was $346.8M in 2023, $348.2M in 2024 and $449.3M in 2025. Revenue swung with gas prices, from $888.6M in 2021 to $2,473.0M in 2022 and $851.4M in 2024, while operating income rose from $139.3M to $266.7M over 2021 to 2025.
The June 2026 quarter was steady. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax and depreciation, the company's main measure, were $120.1M against $107.1M a year earlier, and net income $50.1M.
The news was in the contracts. The Express won a seven-year charter in Colombia from early 2027, a tanker was bought to convert into a new floating terminal for 2028, and the newest ship started work in Jordan. Management raised its 2026 range to $490M to $515M after cutting it in May, and kept Iraq's start in early Q2 2027.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the scarcity case: another ship renewed at a higher rate and the newest one found work at once. It left the main question open, because Iraq's start date held but the work there still waits on a war.
The quarter in detail
91.2%Q3 25
-18.8%Q4 25
36.5%Q1 26
-24.0%Q2 26
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $0.37 against $0.35 expected; $0.37 as filed, with no adjustments.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C04facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter revenue was $329.3M: terminal services $160.5M and LNG, gas and power $168.8M. Operating income was $80.9M, net income $50.1M and adjusted EBITDA $120.1M against $107.1M a year earlier; earnings per Class A share were $0.37.
2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was $515M to $545M in February, cut to $480M to $510M in May and raised to $490M to $515M in August, with growth capital of $380M to $400M and maintenance capital of $85M to $95M.
historical · February to August 2026written 2026-10-07
C12facthigh confidence
In June 2026 Excelerate signed a seven-year charter, with extension options, with Sociedad Portuaria Puerto Bahia, a Frontera Energy subsidiary, to move the FSRU Express to a new terminal under development in Colombia from Q1 2027. In July it agreed to buy the LNG carrier Methane Patricia Camila for its first FSRU conversion, to work from early 2028.
In October 2025 Excelerate signed Iraq's first LNG import terminal with a subsidiary of the Ministry of Electricity: five years of regasification and LNG supply with extension options and a minimum offtake of 250 million cubic feet a day. It now expects operations early in Q2 2027 at Khor Al Zubair.
The start was pushed from 2026 into 2027 in May 2026 (C10), and the site lies inside the Gulf behind the strait the conflict closed.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-07
C02facthigh confidence
The twelfth, Excelerate Acadia, was delivered in April 2026: 170,000 cubic metres of storage and 1,000 million cubic feet a day of send-out. It has served Jordan's National Electric Power Company at Aqaba under a nine-month charter since July 2026.
Management bought Jamaica's terminals and power plant from New Fortress Energy in 2025, and is spending $520M to $550M on Iraq for about 5 times its yearly earnings. It also raises the dividend each year and buys back shares.
Insiders in 2026Q1: 15 purchases and 17 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C03facthigh confidence
In 2025 revenue was $1,228.3M: terminal services $596.6M and LNG, gas and power $631.6M, against $537.8M of LNG bought. Net income was $167.0M, of which $39.2M was Class A shareholders'. Adjusted EBITDA was $449.3M against $348.2M in 2024, with $69.9M from Jamaica, bought in May 2025.
Management puts Iraq's total cost at $520M to $550M, including the FSRU, at an EBITDA build multiple of about 5 times. In May 2026 it moved the start into 2027, citing jetty reinforcement and logistics, with about six months of construction once work restarts.
The cost range rose between the November 2025 and February 2026 calls, and the start has already slipped once.
forwardwritten 2026-10-07
C16facthigh confidence
In the first half of 2026 operations brought in $174.2M of cash and capital spending took $283.8M. Excelerate spent $28.4M buying back Class A shares and $5.2M on dividends, paid $20.7M to the Class B holder, and raised the quarterly dividend 13% to $0.09.
At the end of 2025 net debt was about $730M and leverage 1.6 times; management targets dividend growth in the low double digits a year from 2026 to 2028, and the board authorised a $75M buyback in December 2025.
In short. Fair. The price pays for the ships already working plus Iraq and Colombia arriving roughly on schedule, and leaves little room if Iraq slips.
Share price
$34.60
close,
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
10.5
its 6-year normal 9.0
War in the Persian Gulf closed the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026, cutting off a fifth of the world's LNG. Qatar suspended the gas Excelerate resells to Bangladesh, and the shares fell about a quarter in a month. They have recovered little since.
The next test is close: third-quarter results on 4 November 2026, and Iraq's start in early Q2 2027.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C22facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $34.60 on 6 October 2026, up 33.7% in a year in which sales per share rose 48.0% and the multiple fell 9.7%. They peaked at $43.18 on 3 March 2026, fell to $32.17 by 1 April as the Gulf war closed Hormuz, and touched $24.89 in October 2025.
In March 2026 QatarEnergy declared force majeure on its supply after the conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz, and Excelerate passed it to Petrobangla. Management puts the cost at about $1M a month while the strait stays closed.
The 10-Q says the timing of the end of force majeure cannot be known; Qatar's damaged trains may take up to five years to repair (C27).
current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-07
C27facthigh confidence
The EIA says the March 2026 disruption through the Strait of Hormuz cut off 20% of world LNG supply, mostly Qatar's; an 18 March attack damaged 17% of Qatar's export capacity, with repairs that may take up to five years. US LNG exports averaged 17.4 Bcf a day in the first half of 2026, up 23%.
In October 2025 Excelerate signed Iraq's first LNG import terminal with a subsidiary of the Ministry of Electricity: five years of regasification and LNG supply with extension options and a minimum offtake of 250 million cubic feet a day. It now expects operations early in Q2 2027 at Khor Al Zubair.
The start was pushed from 2026 into 2027 in May 2026 (C10), and the site lies inside the Gulf behind the strait the conflict closed.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-07
C37inferencemedium confidence
To stay on course for the 2026 guidance midpoint, the second half needs about $260M of adjusted EBITDA, about $130M a quarter, level with Q3 2025's $129.3M.
The Exquisite dry dock moved into 2027 and Acadia earns from July, so the second half is not a clean comparison.
historical · H2 2026written 2026-10-07
How we read the multiple
A buyer pays for the current fleet plus the new contracts arriving on time.
1. The shares, Kaiser's included, are worth about $3.9B; with about $898M of net debt the business is valued at about $4.8B.
2. It earned $484.1M before interest, tax and depreciation over the past year.
3. So the business costs about 10 times those earnings.
4. Iraq would add about a fifth to them once running.
If Iraq slips again, the price has paid for earnings that are not there.
Against its own history. Buyers pay a little more for each dollar of earnings than the company's usual, for growth from Iraq and Colombia that has not arrived yet.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C24inferencemedium confidence
At $34.60, 113.4M Class A and B shares are worth about $3,925M; with about $898M of net debt the business is valued at about $4,822M: 10.0 times trailing adjusted EBITDA of $484.1M, 9.6 times the 2026 guidance midpoint and about 20 times trailing net income of $194.2M.
The pack's vendor market value of $4.06B counts issued rather than outstanding Class A shares and misses the Class B, so vendor multiples do not match this arithmetic.
current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-07
C11inferencemedium confidence
At about 5 times its $520M to $550M cost, Iraq would add roughly $105M to $110M of adjusted EBITDA a year once running, about a fifth of the 2026 guidance midpoint.
Part of the 5x return is gas supply margin, which depends on cargoes reaching a Gulf port; management has not split it between terminal, ship and supply.
forwardwritten 2026-10-07
C36estimatelow confidence
Before growth spending, the business makes roughly $300M of cash a year: the $502.5M guidance midpoint less about $81M of interest, $90M of maintenance capital and $30M of tax, about 7.7% of the $3.9B the shares are worth.
Interest will rise with the larger debt, Class B distributions take most of that cash before Class A sees it, and growth capital of $380M to $400M uses all of it in 2026.
forwardwritten 2026-10-07
C14facthigh confidence
2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was $515M to $545M in February, cut to $480M to $510M in May and raised to $490M to $515M in August, with growth capital of $380M to $400M and maintenance capital of $85M to $95M.
historical · February to August 2026written 2026-10-07
Priced against its rivals
None of the listed rivals above sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.
Also checked and set aside: Golar LNG Limited (a substitute, not the same product).
Where we disagree with the market
The market believes
A contracted gas terminal landlord with visible growth from Iraq and Colombia; nine of 13 analysts rate it a buy.
We believe
The rent is real and the ships scarce, but the growth the price pays for sits in Iraq, inside the war zone.
Analysts count Iraq's earnings in 2027 and see a contracted landlord growing steadily. The filings show that start has already moved once, the gas from Qatar is suspended and this year's growth spending uses all the cash.
Against us: the contracts held through the war, guidance was raised again in August, and the ships are scarce enough that every one is working.
What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
69%
of 13, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
67%
of 12, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C23factmedium confidence
Nine of the 13 analysts covering Excelerate rate it a buy or strong buy and four a hold; they expect earnings of $1.61 a share in 2026 and $2.07 in 2027. Short interest was 7.7% of the float, 6.3 days of trading, at the 15 September 2026 settlement.
At $34.60, 113.4M Class A and B shares are worth about $3,925M; with about $898M of net debt the business is valued at about $4,822M: 10.0 times trailing adjusted EBITDA of $484.1M, 9.6 times the 2026 guidance midpoint and about 20 times trailing net income of $194.2M.
The pack's vendor market value of $4.06B counts issued rather than outstanding Class A shares and misses the Class B, so vendor multiples do not match this arithmetic.
current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-07
C09facthigh confidence
In October 2025 Excelerate signed Iraq's first LNG import terminal with a subsidiary of the Ministry of Electricity: five years of regasification and LNG supply with extension options and a minimum offtake of 250 million cubic feet a day. It now expects operations early in Q2 2027 at Khor Al Zubair.
The start was pushed from 2026 into 2027 in May 2026 (C10), and the site lies inside the Gulf behind the strait the conflict closed.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-07
C10management claimmedium confidence
Management puts Iraq's total cost at $520M to $550M, including the FSRU, at an EBITDA build multiple of about 5 times. In May 2026 it moved the start into 2027, citing jetty reinforcement and logistics, with about six months of construction once work restarts.
The cost range rose between the November 2025 and February 2026 calls, and the start has already slipped once.
forwardwritten 2026-10-07
C08management claimmedium confidence
In March 2026 QatarEnergy declared force majeure on its supply after the conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz, and Excelerate passed it to Petrobangla. Management puts the cost at about $1M a month while the strait stays closed.
The 10-Q says the timing of the end of force majeure cannot be known; Qatar's damaged trains may take up to five years to repair (C27).
current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-07
C14facthigh confidence
2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was $515M to $545M in February, cut to $480M to $510M in May and raised to $490M to $515M in August, with growth capital of $380M to $400M and maintenance capital of $85M to $95M.
historical · February to August 2026written 2026-10-07
06
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
Iraq slips again The terminal sits inside the Gulf; another delay leaves up to $550M spent and earning nothing, with debt near 2 times earnings.
Qatar's gas stays cut The Bangladesh contract depends on Qatar's supply, now suspended; Qatar's damaged plants may take up to five years to repair.
The ship shortage ends Conversions, new ships and land terminals could leave a ship without a renter when its charter ends.
Customers in emerging markets Three customers took 40% of 2025 revenue, mostly state buyers in emerging markets, which can be slow to pay.
Kaiser controls the votes Kaiser's company holds 71.9% of the votes and takes most of the cash paid out, through its own shares and a tax agreement.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C09facthigh confidence
In October 2025 Excelerate signed Iraq's first LNG import terminal with a subsidiary of the Ministry of Electricity: five years of regasification and LNG supply with extension options and a minimum offtake of 250 million cubic feet a day. It now expects operations early in Q2 2027 at Khor Al Zubair.
The start was pushed from 2026 into 2027 in May 2026 (C10), and the site lies inside the Gulf behind the strait the conflict closed.
current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-07
C10management claimmedium confidence
Management puts Iraq's total cost at $520M to $550M, including the FSRU, at an EBITDA build multiple of about 5 times. In May 2026 it moved the start into 2027, citing jetty reinforcement and logistics, with about six months of construction once work restarts.
The cost range rose between the November 2025 and February 2026 calls, and the start has already slipped once.
forwardwritten 2026-10-07
C08management claimmedium confidence
In March 2026 QatarEnergy declared force majeure on its supply after the conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz, and Excelerate passed it to Petrobangla. Management puts the cost at about $1M a month while the strait stays closed.
The 10-Q says the timing of the end of force majeure cannot be known; Qatar's damaged trains may take up to five years to repair (C27).
current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-07
C30inferencemedium confidence
A buyer that needs an import terminal within two years must charter an existing FSRU, and few are free; that is why every owned Excelerate ship is contracted and five have recontracted at higher rates.
FSRU utilisation fell to 35% in 2025 (C25), so ships sit idle at some ports, and Excelerate itself is converting a carrier, as rivals can.
current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-07
C15facthigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 Excelerate held $342.4M of cash with an undrawn $500M credit line. Debt was $926.1M of long-term debt, mostly $800M of 8% notes due May 2030, $155.9M owed to a related party and $158.2M of finance leases, about $1,240M in all; it also owed $50.0M under a tax receivable agreement.
George Kaiser's EE Holdings controls 71.9% of the votes, so Excelerate is a controlled company. Directors and officers hold 2.34% of the Class A shares, chief executive Steven Kobos 1.50%.
The 10-K says every owned floating terminal is under contract, at fixed daily rates with inflation escalators, with customers bearing most operating costs. Customers A, B and C took 18%, 12% and 10% of 2025 revenue, and about 20% of fixed assets sit in Jamaica.
What each ship earns a day and when each charter ends; the company gives only totals.
How many new floating terminals are on order or being converted for delivery by 2030.
How much of Iraq's return is the terminal and how much the gas sold through it.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C06facthigh confidence
The 10-K says every owned floating terminal is under contract, at fixed daily rates with inflation escalators, with customers bearing most operating costs. Customers A, B and C took 18%, 12% and 10% of 2025 revenue, and about 20% of fixed assets sit in Jamaica.
At about 5 times its $520M to $550M cost, Iraq would add roughly $105M to $110M of adjusted EBITDA a year once running, about a fifth of the 2026 guidance midpoint.
Part of the 5x return is gas supply margin, which depends on cargoes reaching a Gulf port; management has not split it between terminal, ship and supply.
forwardwritten 2026-10-07
C25facthigh confidence
The GECF counts 50 FSRUs operating by early 2026 with 197 million tonnes a year of capacity, about 20% of world regasification. FSRUs took 70 million tonnes of LNG in 2025, 17% of world imports, at 35% utilisation against 41% in 2024.
Neutral→AttractiveA cheaper price on unchanged earnings
It needs:
○The business is valued at 8 times its yearly earnings before interest, tax and depreciation, from about 10 today.about ≈$27.68 today, 20% below the last close
Neutral→AttractiveIraq starts and 2027 is guided higher
It needs all of:
○Iraq's terminal starts working by 30 June 2027.watched as it happens
○Management guides 2027 earnings before interest, tax and depreciation at $600M or more.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
Neutral→UnattractiveThe growth or the scarcity fails
It needs any of:
○Iraq is suspended, or its start moves into 2028.watched as it happens
○A ship Excelerate owns ends a charter with no new renter.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
Net debt rises above 3 times yearly earnings.
Petrobangla stops taking or paying for cargoes after Qatar's supply returns.
What is coming
4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether 2026 guidance and Iraq's Q2 2027 start hold, and whether the second half earns about $130M a quarter.
Every dated event ahead
4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether 2026 guidance and Iraq's Q2 2027 start hold, and whether the second half earns about $130M a quarter.
31 March 2027 Express starts in Colombia: Whether the first recontract of 2027 earns the higher rate on time.
30 June 2027 Iraq terminal starts: Whether the main growth project works inside the Gulf on time and cost.
Since we wrote this
Written
7 Oct
Price the thesis read
$34.60
6 Oct
7 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten a month before Q3 results, after the shares fell a quarter in March on the Gulf war and recovered little.
Sources 16
Where this came from
Sources - 16
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
the fleet, contract terms, customers and concentration, the Petrobangla and Iraq agreements, competition classes, control, debt and the FY2025 statements
the FSRU count and capacity, share of regasification, utilisation, build times, costs and new liquefaction to 2030
Most of the 50 operational units are locked into long-term charter agreements through 2030, leaving a negligible pool of vessels for prompt redeployment.
the damage to Qatar's export capacity and the repair time
Qatar also sustained damage to 17% of its export capacity after a March 18 attack on the Ras Laffan LNG export facility damaged two liquefaction trains.