← All thesesTATTNeutralMedium convictionSunday 18 October 2026עברית

TAT Technologies

A small aircraft repair company: it overhauls the little jet engines in airliners' tails, their landing gear and their heat exchangers, mostly under licence from Honeywell.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↓

Revenue doubled from 2022 to 2025 without acquisitions, but first-half 2026 growth fell to 10%, near the repair market's 8%.

Business quality3/4 →

Honeywell licences and exclusive APU positions give a real edge, but the licensor controls them, competes, and StandardAero does the same work.

Financial position4/4 →

$43.2M of net cash, a $100M undrawn credit line and positive cash flow; the organic plan needs no outside money.

Execution record3/4 →

Hit the 25% gross and 15% EBITDA targets it set, but missed estimates twice in 2025 and first-half profit was flat.

Per share capture2/4 ↓

Diluted shares rose 12.6% in a year and sales per share fell; acquisitions are to be funded half with new shares.

Potential2/4 →

Repair spending grows near 8%, but most backlog binds nobody and the parts distribution and 331-500 gains are expected, not committed.

Risk profile3/4 →

One licensor and parts supplier, Honeywell, and one customer at 14.5% of revenue: disclosed, long-standing and survivable.

Valuation3/4 ↑

About 15 times trailing adjusted EBITDA needs growth to resume to consensus, the plan roughly as described, and nothing beyond it.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Results, licences and backlog terms are filed and the market data is independent, but platform shares and the margin path are management's.

The bet · 2-3 years
Safe, little upside0.9×

If it works 0.9× · if it fails you keep about 81%.

The Verdict

We rate TAT Technologies Neutral. The business is solid: it repairs aircraft parts under Honeywell's licences, a real edge, and doubled its sales in three years without buying anyone. But growth slowed to 10% in the first half of 2026 and profit stopped rising as parts ran short. The price is fair: about 15 times last year's cash operating profit asks for growth to come back, not for more. As a bet on its new parts-selling and 737 repair lines it is expensive: if they work they add little to today's price. The view hinges on whether the slowdown was only late parts.

The long caseOld aircraft fly longer and their parts are scarce, so the only authorized seller of a platform's spares can sell more of them.

The evidence under this - 7 claims
C09facthigh confidence
Piedmont is a Honeywell-licensed authorized repair center for APUs under separate military and commercial agreements; the commercial one is a ten-year agreement signed in September 2020, and Honeywell is a key supplier of TAT's APU parts.
against this

The same 20-F names Honeywell as a competitor in APU repair, so the licensor also competes for the work.

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C14inferencemedium confidence
The moat is Honeywell's licence: the data, approvals and parts it grants make Piedmont one of a few authorized shops on its APU platforms, but the input is Honeywell's to give and it also competes.
derivedthe licences and exclusive positions (C09, C10, C11), what the FAA requires a shop to hold (C13), the royalties paid (C12), and Honeywell named as a competitor (C17)
against this

StandardAero also overhauls APUs (C18), so authorization is not exclusive on every platform.

current state · 2026-10-18written 2026-10-18
C03facthigh confidence
In the first half of 2026 revenue rose 10.4% to $94.1M but operating income was flat at $8.6M. Piedmont grew 16.2% to $44.5M with operating income up from $0.8M to $3.0M; Limco fell 1.2% and its operating income from $3.9M to $3.2M; TAT Israel grew 13.1% with operating income down from $2.1M to $1.5M.
against this

Management says the second quarter alone grew 22.8% as parts held up in the first quarter arrived (C05, C06).

historical · six months to 30 June 2026written 2026-10-18
C33inferencemedium confidence
At $32.84 the market value is about $426.9M; less $43.2M of net cash the company value is about $384M, about 14.8 times trailing adjusted EBITDA of $25.9M and about 20 times trailing operating income of $18.8M.
derivedthe close and market value (C30), net cash at 30 June (C28), and the four quarters of adjusted EBITDA and operating income to June 2026 (C34)
against this

The vendor's company value of $388.9M uses December's balance sheet, and its EBITDA gives 16.4 times.

current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
C35estimatemedium confidence
For the company value to be 12 times adjusted EBITDA in 2028, TAT needs about $32M of it, a quarter above today's $25.9M; at a 15% margin that is about $213M of revenue, against consensus of $229.9M for 2027.
derivedthe company value (C33), 12 times as a judgement near the rivals' 11.9 and 13.5 (C51), the 14% to 15% margin of the last year (C34), and consensus revenue (C36)
against this

First-half revenue grew 10.4% and operating income not at all (C03), so consensus already assumes a faster second half.

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C10facthigh confidence
In July 2026 Honeywell Aerospace made TAT the sole global authorized distributor of 331-200/250 APU spare parts, except Africa before 2030 and direct supply to aircraft makers, extended its repair licence for that platform to 2036, and TAT bought three 131-9A APUs.
current state · 2026-07-14written 2026-10-18
C45management claimhigh confidence
The chief executive called the Honeywell parts deal the first time TAT will run a distribution business, and the finance chief said TAT began buying inventory for it and expects inventory to keep rising.
against this

Distribution means holding inventory: inventory rose $9.7M in six months and second-quarter operating cash flow was negative (C28).

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
01

The company

Every airliner carries an auxiliary power unit, a small jet engine in the tail that makes electricity and air while the main engines are off. After a few thousand hours it must be taken apart, repaired and tested. TAT does that work in North Carolina, mainly for cargo carriers and airlines flying Boeing 767s, 757s and 777s, and also repairs landing gear and heat exchangers.

The buyer's alternatives are Honeywell's own shops, other licensed repairers such as StandardAero, or an in-house shop with the same licence.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C01facthigh confidence
TAT reports four segments: heat exchanger and accessory making in Kiryat Gat, Israel; heat exchanger repair at Limco; APU and landing gear repair and APU leasing at Piedmont; and jet engine part coating at Turbochrome.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C09facthigh confidence
Piedmont is a Honeywell-licensed authorized repair center for APUs under separate military and commercial agreements; the commercial one is a ten-year agreement signed in September 2020, and Honeywell is a key supplier of TAT's APU parts.
against this

The same 20-F names Honeywell as a competitor in APU repair, so the licensor also competes for the work.

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C13facthigh confidence
FAA rules require a certificated repair station to use the manufacturer's recommended tools or equivalents and to hold current maintenance and overhaul manuals and service bulletins for the work it does.
current state · 2026-10-18written 2026-10-18
C23facthigh confidence
In 2026 TAT announced a $14M three-year landing gear contract with a US airline (January), a $36M APU contract with a cargo carrier: $22M over two years on the 331-200/250 and $14M over four years on the 331-500 (March), and about $45M of five- to ten-year APU and heat exchanger agreements (June).
historical · January to June 2026written 2026-10-18
C17facthigh confidence
TAT's 20-F names rivals by business: in heat exchanger repair AAR, Honeywell, AMETEK's Drake Air, Liebherr, Lufthansa Technik and Parker Hannifin; in APU and landing gear repair StandardAero, Aerotech, Honeywell and AAR.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18

How it makes money

TAT is paid per repair, mostly under multi-year agreements that set prices for a customer's fleet, and also earns rent from a pool of spare engines and margins on parts it sells. Nearly half its sales come from the engine and landing gear unit, about a quarter from heat exchanger repair and a quarter from heat exchangers it makes in Israel. Customers return because their fleets need the same work every few years.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C02facthigh confidence
In 2025 Piedmont sold $85.2M (operating income $6.0M), Limco $42.8M ($4.9M), TAT Israel $40.9M ($4.9M) and Turbochrome $9.1M ($2.8M) to outside customers, of $178.0M in all; Piedmont grew 26.3% including internal sales and Limco 1.3%.
historical · fiscal 2025written 2026-10-18
C08facthigh confidence
By product line, first-half 2026 revenue was APUs $29.0M (up 22.2%), heat exchange $37.6M (up 4.2%), trading and leasing $9.6M, landing gear $4.9M (down from $5.3M) and other lines $12.9M.
historical · six months to 30 June 2026written 2026-10-18
C21facthigh confidence
At 31 December 2025 the backlog was $86M of purchase orders plus $464M of estimated sales under long-term agreements, $550M in all; under those agreements customers have no legal obligation to buy.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C23facthigh confidence
In 2026 TAT announced a $14M three-year landing gear contract with a US airline (January), a $36M APU contract with a cargo carrier: $22M over two years on the 331-200/250 and $14M over four years on the 331-500 (March), and about $45M of five- to ten-year APU and heat exchanger agreements (June).
historical · January to June 2026written 2026-10-18
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (2025)How it earns it
APU and landing gear repair, leasing and parts (Piedmont)47.9%Repair under Honeywell licences, lease units and parts trading for airlines, cargo carriers and air forces.
Heat exchanger repair (Limco)24.0%Repair of heat exchangers and some manufacture at an FAA repair station.
Heat exchangers and accessories made in Israel23.0%Heat exchangers, cooling systems, pumps and valves for aircraft and ground defence makers.
Jet engine part coating (Turbochrome)5.1%Overhaul and coating of turbine vanes, blades and other engine parts.

Who runs it

Igal Zamir has run TAT since 2016 and took sales from about $75M to $178M while reaching the margin targets he set. No director or officer owns more than 1%; Israeli institutions hold about a third. His bonus rides on budget targets for sales, profit and cash, and half his new share awards on how the stock does against peers over three years.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C41facthigh confidence
Igal Zamir has been chief executive since April 2016, Ehud Ben-Yair finance chief since May 2018, and Jason Lewandowski, formerly of Honeywell, operating chief since December 2022.
current state · 2026-03-01written 2026-10-18
C39facthigh confidence
Meitav held 14.8%, Phoenix 7.3%, Wasatch 6.0% and Migdal 5.1% of 12,983,137 shares; no director or officer owned more than 1%.
current state · 2026-03-01written 2026-10-18
C40facthigh confidence
The chief executive's 2025 pay was $1.04M; shareholders approved in September 2026 a $500,000 salary, a bonus of up to ten months' salary on budget targets, and $1.4M of yearly equity, half vesting on three-year shareholder return against peers.
against this

The new equity vests in full on a change of control, single-trigger.

current state · 2026-09-08written 2026-10-18
C27facthigh confidence
In 2025 revenue rose 17.0% to $178.0M, gross margin was 24.8% against 21.7%, operating income $18.8M, adjusted EBITDA $25.5M (14.3%), and operating cash flow $15.0M against minus $5.8M in 2024.
historical · fiscal 2025written 2026-10-18
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

The edge is the licence. US aviation rules require a repair shop to hold the maker's current manuals and tools for the work it does, and Honeywell grants those to only a few shops. TAT pays makers royalties of 5% to 25% for it.

In July 2026 Honeywell extended TAT's licence for its main engine type to 2036 and made it the only authorized seller of that engine's spare parts. The weakness is that the edge is Honeywell's to give, and Honeywell also repairs engines itself.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C09facthigh confidence
Piedmont is a Honeywell-licensed authorized repair center for APUs under separate military and commercial agreements; the commercial one is a ten-year agreement signed in September 2020, and Honeywell is a key supplier of TAT's APU parts.
against this

The same 20-F names Honeywell as a competitor in APU repair, so the licensor also competes for the work.

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C10facthigh confidence
In July 2026 Honeywell Aerospace made TAT the sole global authorized distributor of 331-200/250 APU spare parts, except Africa before 2030 and direct supply to aircraft makers, extended its repair licence for that platform to 2036, and TAT bought three 131-9A APUs.
current state · 2026-07-14written 2026-10-18
C11facthigh confidence
At the end of 2020 Piedmont became Honeywell's exclusive lease pool provider for the 331-500 APU on the Boeing 777, buying 18 units, and became an authorized repair station for the 331-500 and the 131 on the 737 and A320.
historical · 2020 to 2021written 2026-10-18
C12facthigh confidence
TAT pays OEMs royalties of 5% to 25% of revenue or purchases under its licence agreements: $5.7M in 2025, $5.0M in 2024 and $3.3M in 2023.
historical · 2023 to 2025written 2026-10-18
C13facthigh confidence
FAA rules require a certificated repair station to use the manufacturer's recommended tools or equivalents and to hold current maintenance and overhaul manuals and service bulletins for the work it does.
current state · 2026-10-18written 2026-10-18
C14inferencemedium confidence
The moat is Honeywell's licence: the data, approvals and parts it grants make Piedmont one of a few authorized shops on its APU platforms, but the input is Honeywell's to give and it also competes.
derivedthe licences and exclusive positions (C09, C10, C11), what the FAA requires a shop to hold (C13), the royalties paid (C12), and Honeywell named as a competitor (C17)
against this

StandardAero also overhauls APUs (C18), so authorization is not exclusive on every platform.

current state · 2026-10-18written 2026-10-18

The threat

StandardAero, a much larger listed repairer, overhauls the same kind of engines for the same airlines, and AAR runs component repair shops and sells used parts. On the 737 and A320 engine, by far the biggest market, TAT is a newcomer and its chief executive says wins there are one-offs.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C17facthigh confidence
TAT's 20-F names rivals by business: in heat exchanger repair AAR, Honeywell, AMETEK's Drake Air, Liebherr, Lufthansa Technik and Parker Hannifin; in APU and landing gear repair StandardAero, Aerotech, Honeywell and AAR.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C18facthigh confidence
StandardAero's own 10-K describes it as an independent provider of aftermarket services for aircraft gas turbine engines and APUs to commercial, business and military aircraft markets.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C19facthigh confidence
AAR's 10-K for the year to May 2026 says it operates eight airframe maintenance facilities and five component repair facilities, beside its parts supply business.
current state · 2026-05-31written 2026-10-18
C16management claimhigh confidence
The chief executive said wins on the 131 APU for the 737 and A320 are one-off opportunities rather than long-term contracts, and large airlines on that platform are not a key growth target.
forwardwritten 2026-10-18

The rivals: SARO, HONA, AIR, AIR, AME, PH, HON, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
SAROStandardAero, a listed independent overhauler of engines and APUsPriced against it: YesPiedmont: APU and landing gear repair, APU leasing and parts tradingOn saleYes
HONAHoneywell Aerospace, the APU maker, with its own repair shops and parts salesPriced against it: One segment onlyPiedmont: APU and landing gear repair, APU leasing and parts tradingOn saleOne segment only
PrivateAerotech International, a private APU and landing gear repairerPriced against it: PrivatePiedmont: APU and landing gear repair, APU leasing and parts tradingOn salePrivate
AIRAAR, a listed parts distributor and component repairerPriced against it: YesHeat exchangers: making them in Israel and repairing them at LimcoOn saleYes
AAR's parts distribution and the used-parts marketNew APU lines: Honeywell 331-200/250 parts distribution and 131 repair for the 737 and A320On sale
AME · PHAMETEK's Drake Air and Hughes-Treitler, and Parker HannifinPriced against it: One segment onlyHeat exchangers: making them in Israel and repairing them at LimcoOn saleOne segment only
Not listedLiebherr-Aerospace and Lufthansa Technik, private or unlisted makers and repairersPriced against it: Not listedHeat exchangers: making them in Israel and repairing them at LimcoOn saleNot listed
SARO · HONAStandardAero and Honeywell Aerospace, established 131 APU repairersPriced against it: YesNew APU lines: Honeywell 331-200/250 parts distribution and 131 repair for the 737 and A320On saleYes
HONHoneywell InternationalPriced against it: One segment only-On saleOne segment only
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

Oliver Wyman, an outside consultancy, puts the world's spending on repairing aircraft components at about $24.0B in 2026, rising to $33.3B by 2036. Nobody publishes how much of that is these engines, landing gear or heat exchangers, so the market TAT can reach cannot be measured. TAT's own estimate is that it holds about 45% of the repair work on its main engine type.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C24factmedium confidence
Oliver Wyman puts global aircraft repair spending at $136B in 2025, up 8%, with component repair at $24.0B in 2026 ($6.6B in North America) rising to $33.3B in 2036.
current state · 2026-03-01written 2026-10-18
C15management claimlow confidence
TAT estimates, from Boeing and Airbus fleet data, that it holds about 45% of an $85M 331-200 repair market, about 2% of a $290M 331-500 market and under 1% of a $2.2B 131 market.
against this

The shares rest on Boeing and Airbus fleet data and TAT's own estimates; no outside source sizes APU repair by model, and Honeywell and StandardAero also repair the 331-200.

current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-18

Who has signed

Firm orders were only $86M at the end of 2025. The rest of the $615M backlog management cites is long-term agreements under which customers estimate what they will buy but are not obliged to, including a $36M cargo carrier deal signed in March 2026.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C21facthigh confidence
At 31 December 2025 the backlog was $86M of purchase orders plus $464M of estimated sales under long-term agreements, $550M in all; under those agreements customers have no legal obligation to buy.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C22management claimmedium confidence
Management put backlog and long-term agreements at about $615M at 30 June 2026, against $580M at 31 March and $429M at the end of 2024.
against this

Most of the figure is estimated sales under agreements carrying no obligation to buy (C21).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
C23facthigh confidence
In 2026 TAT announced a $14M three-year landing gear contract with a US airline (January), a $36M APU contract with a cargo carrier: $22M over two years on the 331-200/250 and $14M over four years on the 331-500 (March), and about $45M of five- to ten-year APU and heat exchanger agreements (June).
historical · January to June 2026written 2026-10-18
04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Steady

Sales grew 17% in the year to Dec 2025, slower than the 34% in the year before.

Dec 2021: $78.0MDec 2022: $84.6MDec 2023: $114MDec 2024: $152MDec 2025: $178M$78.0M$178M
Is it profitable?Healthy

Operating margin is 11%, up from −2.1% in the year to Dec 2022.

Dec 2021: −5.2%Dec 2022: −2.1%Dec 2023: 5.3%Dec 2024: 8.2%Dec 2025: 11%−5.2%11%
Does growth pay off?Pays off

Running costs take 14¢ of each sales dollar, down from 20¢ in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 20¢Dec 2022: 21¢Dec 2023: 14¢Dec 2024: 13¢Dec 2025: 14¢20¢14¢
Does it earn good returns?Decent

Each dollar put into the business earns 11% a year after tax, up from 5.3% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2023: 5.3%Dec 2024: 11%Dec 2025: 11%5.3%11%
Is it making cash?Thin

It turned 2.3% of sales into free cash, $4.02M over the year.

Dec 2021: −$18.5MDec 2022: −$21.1MDec 2023: −$2.85MDec 2024: −$10.9MDec 2025: $4.02M−$18.5M$4.02M
Is the balance sheet safe?Net cash

It holds $51.3M of cash against $11.7M of debt, $39.5M more cash than it owes.

Dec 2021: $6.20MDec 2022: −$13.6MDec 2023: $893KDec 2024: −$5.89MDec 2025: $39.5M$6.20M$39.5M
Are shares being diluted?Diluting

The share count rose 38% in 4.0 years, and pay in shares costs 0.7% of sales.

Dec 2021: 8.87MDec 2022: 8.91MDec 2023: 9.08MDec 2024: 11.2MDec 2025: 12.3M8.87M12.3M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-18. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 2025
Size and growth
Sales$78.0M$84.6M$114M$152M$178M
Sales growth+3.5%+8.4%+35%+34%+17%
Profit
Gross margin14%19%20%22%25%
Operating margin−5.2%−2.1%5.3%8.2%11%
Net margin−4.6%−1.8%4.1%7.3%9.4%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development0.7%0.6%0.6%0.8%0.8%
Sales and marketing6.6%6.7%4.9%5.1%4.8%
General and admin11%12%9.3%7.8%8.8%
Pay in shares0.2%0.3%0.1%0.3%0.7%
Capital spending21%19%4.5%3.4%6.2%
Cash
Cash from operations−$2.27M−$4.87M$2.25M−$5.82M$15.0M
Free cash flow−$18.5M−$21.1M−$2.85M−$10.9M$4.02M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$12.9M$7.72M$16.0M$7.13M$51.3M
Debt$6.67M$21.3M$15.1M$13.0M$11.7M
Net cash$6.20M−$13.6M$893K−$5.89M$39.5M
Returns and shares
Return on capital--5.3%11%11%
Shares (diluted)8.87M8.91M9.08M11.2M12.3M

What growth costs

Growth has been cheap: sales doubled while staff grew slowly and margins widened each year, because repair shops fill up rather than expand. The first half of 2026 broke that, as costly parts and new head-office staff for acquisitions ate the extra sales.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C48facthigh confidence
Gross margin rose from 18.8% in 2022 to 19.7% in 2023, 21.7% in 2024 and 24.8% in 2025, while R&D stayed under 1% of revenue.
historical · 2022 to 2025written 2026-10-18
C49facthigh confidence
TAT employed 659 people in 2025, 3.9% more than in 2024, while revenue grew 17.0%; revenue per employee was about $270,000.
historical · fiscal 2025written 2026-10-18
C03facthigh confidence
In the first half of 2026 revenue rose 10.4% to $94.1M but operating income was flat at $8.6M. Piedmont grew 16.2% to $44.5M with operating income up from $0.8M to $3.0M; Limco fell 1.2% and its operating income from $3.9M to $3.2M; TAT Israel grew 13.1% with operating income down from $2.1M to $1.5M.
against this

Management says the second quarter alone grew 22.8% as parts held up in the first quarter arrived (C05, C06).

historical · six months to 30 June 2026written 2026-10-18

The last report (5 Aug)

The second quarter of 2026 looked strong: sales rose 22.8% to $52.9M and profit before interest, tax and non-cash charges was $7.4M. But part of it was repairs held over from a first quarter starved of parts, and the finance chief asked investors to read the half-year instead.

Over the half, sales grew 10.4% and operating profit was flat. Inventory rose as TAT stocked parts, so cash from operations was negative in the quarter. Net income was flattered by a gain on selling a small stake.

What it did to the thesisIt showed the repair business can grow again once parts arrive, which supports the licence case. It did not settle the weak point: profit was flat over the half and cash flow turned negative, so whether growth and margins resume together is still open.

The quarter in detail

Earnings per share $0.61 against $0.30 expected.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C05facthigh confidence
In the quarter to 30 June 2026 revenue rose 22.8% to $52.9M, operating income was $5.6M, adjusted EBITDA $7.4M (14.0% of revenue) and net income $8.1M, including a $4.3M pre-tax gain on selling a minority stake.
against this

The release calls the $4.3M gain net of tax while the finance chief described a $0.9M tax charge on it; either way about a third of the quarter's net income is the gain.

historical · second quarter of 2026written 2026-10-18
C06management claimhigh confidence
The finance chief said the second quarter included catch-up from the first and asked investors to use the average of the first six months, not the second quarter, as the baseline.
against this

Second-quarter revenue of $52.9M was the highest quarter on record and APU revenue rose 22.2% in the half, which reads as more than catch-up (C05, C08).

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C03facthigh confidence
In the first half of 2026 revenue rose 10.4% to $94.1M but operating income was flat at $8.6M. Piedmont grew 16.2% to $44.5M with operating income up from $0.8M to $3.0M; Limco fell 1.2% and its operating income from $3.9M to $3.2M; TAT Israel grew 13.1% with operating income down from $2.1M to $1.5M.
against this

Management says the second quarter alone grew 22.8% as parts held up in the first quarter arrived (C05, C06).

historical · six months to 30 June 2026written 2026-10-18
C28facthigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 TAT held $54.6M of cash and $43.2M of net cash, inventory had risen to $85.2M from $75.5M at year end, and operating cash flow was minus $0.6M in the quarter and $1.4M in the half; it has a new $100M five-year credit line.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-18
What management did with the money

TAT has paid for its growth mostly from operations, plus one share sale in May 2025. It plans acquisitions paid half with borrowing and half with new shares, which would dilute existing holders again.

Insiders in 2026Q2: 2 purchases and 4 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C29facthigh confidence
Diluted shares rose from 8.87M in 2021 to 12.28M in 2025; in May 2025 TAT sold 1,625,000 new shares while FIMI sold 2,525,000.
historical · 2021 to 2025written 2026-10-18
C42management claimhigh confidence
The chief executive said any acquisition will be at a lower multiple than TAT trades on, financed half with debt and half with money raised in the capital market, and that group overhead was expanded in late 2025 to prepare.
against this

TAT has not yet made an acquisition under the programme, and the overhead built for it is already in the first half's costs (C03).

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C44facthigh confidence
Capital spending was $11.0M in 2025 against operating cash flow of $15.0M, and $5.1M in 2024 against minus $5.8M.
historical · 2024 to 2025written 2026-10-18
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Fair. The price pays for today's repair business plus growth returning to what analysts expect, and little beyond that.

Share price
$32.84
close,
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
16.4
rivals' middle 12.7

The shares fell 49% from their March high with no bad news since August, while sales per share held steady: the market simply paid less for each dollar of sales.

The test is close. Third-quarter results on 11 November will show whether sales reach the $52.8M analysts expect, or settle back near the first half's pace, and whether cash flow turns positive.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C30facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $32.84 on 16 October 2026, 49.1% below the 52-week high of $64.50 on 5 March; over 252 sessions they fell 22.2% while diluted shares rose 12.6%, sales per share fell 0.5% and the sales multiple fell 21.8%.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
C31facthigh confidence
Closes fell from $61.11 on 17 March 2026 to $43.01 on 20 March, rose from $32.69 to $39.54 on 20 May, reached $48.23 on 30 June, rose to $42.62 on 5 August, fell to $37.74 by 11 August and to $32.84 by 16 October.
historical · March to October 2026written 2026-10-18
C36factmedium confidence
Analysts expect sales of $198.7M for 2026 and $229.9M for 2027, and $52.8M of sales and adjusted earnings of $0.39 a share for the third quarter, to be reported on 11 November 2026.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
C06management claimhigh confidence
The finance chief said the second quarter included catch-up from the first and asked investors to use the average of the first six months, not the second quarter, as the baseline.
against this

Second-quarter revenue of $52.9M was the highest quarter on record and APU revenue rose 22.2% in the half, which reads as more than catch-up (C05, C08).

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
The betSafe, little upside
If it works
0.9×
from today's value, valued like the cheaper of its two rivals
If it fails
keep 81%
of today's market value: the rest of the company, less its debt
How we read the multiple

A buyer pays about 15 times the last four quarters' profit before interest, tax and non-cash charges, after taking off the net cash. That is more than StandardAero or AAR fetch, though TAT keeps more of each sale.

  1. The company, net of its cash, is worth about $384M.
  2. At 12 times profit, near its rivals, that needs about $32M of it by 2028.
  3. That is about a quarter more than the last four quarters' $25.9M.
  4. At its usual margin that takes about $213M of sales, below analysts' 2027 forecast.

Against its own history. Buyers pay less for each dollar of its profit than they usually have, but that usual level was set when profits were tiny, so it flatters less than it looks.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C33inferencemedium confidence
At $32.84 the market value is about $426.9M; less $43.2M of net cash the company value is about $384M, about 14.8 times trailing adjusted EBITDA of $25.9M and about 20 times trailing operating income of $18.8M.
derivedthe close and market value (C30), net cash at 30 June (C28), and the four quarters of adjusted EBITDA and operating income to June 2026 (C34)
against this

The vendor's company value of $388.9M uses December's balance sheet, and its EBITDA gives 16.4 times.

current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
C35estimatemedium confidence
For the company value to be 12 times adjusted EBITDA in 2028, TAT needs about $32M of it, a quarter above today's $25.9M; at a 15% margin that is about $213M of revenue, against consensus of $229.9M for 2027.
derivedthe company value (C33), 12 times as a judgement near the rivals' 11.9 and 13.5 (C51), the 14% to 15% margin of the last year (C34), and consensus revenue (C36)
against this

First-half revenue grew 10.4% and operating income not at all (C03), so consensus already assumes a faster second half.

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C51factmedium confidence
On the vendor's figures TAT's company value is 16.4 times its cash operating profit against 11.9 for StandardAero and 13.5 for AAR, and its sales grew 12.1% over the trailing year against 12.6% and 22.0%, with the widest margin on each sale of the three.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
C36factmedium confidence
Analysts expect sales of $198.7M for 2026 and $229.9M for 2027, and $52.8M of sales and adjusted earnings of $0.39 a share for the third quarter, to be reported on 11 November 2026.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
Priced against its rivals

The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of cash profit, cheapest first:

TickerCompanycompany value for each $1 of cash profit
SAROStandardAero11.9×
AIRAAR13.5×
TATTTAT Technologies16.4×

The middle of the other 2 is 12.7. TAT Technologies Ltd. is dearest of 3.

Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.

Buyers pay more for each dollar of its profit than for either listed rival's: a premium that is TAT's own, for wider margins rather than faster growth.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Liebherr-Aerospace, Lufthansa Technik, Aerotech International, Chromalloy, Boyd Corporation, American Cooler Service.

The bet: what it pays if it works

The bet is TAT's two newest lines: selling Honeywell spare parts for its main engine type as the only authorized distributor, and winning repair work on the engine in 737s and A320s.

If both work as far as the evidence supports, they add only a small slice to the company's value; the price already leans on the rest of TAT.

If they fail, little is lost: the repair business alone, at its rivals' rating, is worth most of today's price.

New APU lines: Honeywell 331-200/250 parts distribution and 131 repair for the 737 and A320 EBITDA in two to three years$10M blocks of new-line revenue a year neededValued like its peersLike the cheapest
$500,000about 0 at 15% kept0.8×0.8×
$3.00M (the big win)about 2 at 15% kept0.9×0.9×
$6.00Mabout 4 at 15% kept1.0×1.0×

To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $39.44M of New APU lines: Honeywell 331-200/250 parts distribution and 131 repair for the 737 and A320 EBITDA (about 26 $10M blocks of new-line revenue a year at 15% kept); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $137.48M of New APU lines: Honeywell 331-200/250 parts distribution and 131 repair for the 737 and A320 EBITDA (about 92 $10M blocks of new-line revenue a year at 15% kept), at the same multiple.

Each row is New APU lines: Honeywell 331-200/250 parts distribution and 131 repair for the 737 and A320 alone, plus the rest of the company (APU, landing gear and heat exchanger repair and manufacture) counted at about $308.45M.

The steps it has to take

  • Done Sole distribution agreement signed and repair licence extended to 2036
  • Not started First 131 APU long-term agreement announced due 2027-12
  • In progress Inventory bought for distribution due 2026-12
  • Not started First distribution sales named in a release or on a call due 2027-03
  • Not started Trading and leasing revenue above $25M in a year due 2027-12
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
At their midpoint
0.9×
the same success, valued between the two
Cheap bet at about
≈ $8.22
75% below the price (close, )
The option
0.4×
what New APU lines: Honeywell 331-200/250 parts distribution and 131 repair for the 737 and A320 is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C10facthigh confidence
In July 2026 Honeywell Aerospace made TAT the sole global authorized distributor of 331-200/250 APU spare parts, except Africa before 2030 and direct supply to aircraft makers, extended its repair licence for that platform to 2036, and TAT bought three 131-9A APUs.
current state · 2026-07-14written 2026-10-18
C15management claimlow confidence
TAT estimates, from Boeing and Airbus fleet data, that it holds about 45% of an $85M 331-200 repair market, about 2% of a $290M 331-500 market and under 1% of a $2.2B 131 market.
against this

The shares rest on Boeing and Airbus fleet data and TAT's own estimates; no outside source sizes APU repair by model, and Honeywell and StandardAero also repair the 331-200.

current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-18
C16management claimhigh confidence
The chief executive said wins on the 131 APU for the 737 and A320 are one-off opportunities rather than long-term contracts, and large airlines on that platform are not a key growth target.
forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C45management claimhigh confidence
The chief executive called the Honeywell parts deal the first time TAT will run a distribution business, and the finance chief said TAT began buying inventory for it and expects inventory to keep rising.
against this

Distribution means holding inventory: inventory rose $9.7M in six months and second-quarter operating cash flow was negative (C28).

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C34facthigh confidence
Adjusted EBITDA was $6.05M, $6.76M, $6.88M, $4.85M and $7.43M in the five quarters to June 2026, and operating income $4.4M, $5.3M, $4.9M, $3.0M and $5.6M.
historical · second quarter of 2025 to second quarter of 2026written 2026-10-18
C51factmedium confidence
On the vendor's figures TAT's company value is 16.4 times its cash operating profit against 11.9 for StandardAero and 13.5 for AAR, and its sales grew 12.1% over the trailing year against 12.6% and 22.0%, with the widest margin on each sale of the three.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

A fast-growing niche repairer that fell too far on a parts squeeze; every analyst covering it rates it a buy.

We believe

The licence is real, but growth halved and profit stalled, and the price already asks for the recovery.

Analysts read the record backlog and the contract wins. The filings show most of that backlog binds nobody, and first-half profit did not grow.

We could be wrong: if the slowdown was only late parts, second-half sales and margins will jump, and at today's price that would leave the shares cheap.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
100%
of 7, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
100%
of 7, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C32facthigh confidence
Seven analysts rate TAT a buy and none a hold or sell, 100% positive since February when six did; short interest was 1,333,220 shares, 10.3% of the float and 10.8 days to cover, at 30 September 2026.
current state · 2026-10-01written 2026-10-18
C30facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $32.84 on 16 October 2026, 49.1% below the 52-week high of $64.50 on 5 March; over 252 sessions they fell 22.2% while diluted shares rose 12.6%, sales per share fell 0.5% and the sales multiple fell 21.8%.
current state · 2026-10-16written 2026-10-18
C21facthigh confidence
At 31 December 2025 the backlog was $86M of purchase orders plus $464M of estimated sales under long-term agreements, $550M in all; under those agreements customers have no legal obligation to buy.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C03facthigh confidence
In the first half of 2026 revenue rose 10.4% to $94.1M but operating income was flat at $8.6M. Piedmont grew 16.2% to $44.5M with operating income up from $0.8M to $3.0M; Limco fell 1.2% and its operating income from $3.9M to $3.2M; TAT Israel grew 13.1% with operating income down from $2.1M to $1.5M.
against this

Management says the second quarter alone grew 22.8% as parts held up in the first quarter arrived (C05, C06).

historical · six months to 30 June 2026written 2026-10-18
C35estimatemedium confidence
For the company value to be 12 times adjusted EBITDA in 2028, TAT needs about $32M of it, a quarter above today's $25.9M; at a 15% margin that is about $213M of revenue, against consensus of $229.9M for 2027.
derivedthe company value (C33), 12 times as a judgement near the rivals' 11.9 and 13.5 (C51), the 14% to 15% margin of the last year (C34), and consensus revenue (C36)
against this

First-half revenue grew 10.4% and operating income not at all (C03), so consensus already assumes a faster second half.

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • Honeywell holds the keys. Its licences, parts and data are TAT's edge, and Honeywell also repairs engines; licensing another shop would hit the fastest-growing unit.
  • One big customer. A single repair customer was 14.5% of 2025 sales, and five customers a third.
  • Parts shortages. Repairs stall when parts are missing; $15.5M of nearly finished work waited in March 2026.
  • New shares for deals. Acquisitions are to be paid half in new shares, so each holder would own a smaller slice, after the share count rose by over a third since 2021.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C09facthigh confidence
Piedmont is a Honeywell-licensed authorized repair center for APUs under separate military and commercial agreements; the commercial one is a ten-year agreement signed in September 2020, and Honeywell is a key supplier of TAT's APU parts.
against this

The same 20-F names Honeywell as a competitor in APU repair, so the licensor also competes for the work.

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C10facthigh confidence
In July 2026 Honeywell Aerospace made TAT the sole global authorized distributor of 331-200/250 APU spare parts, except Africa before 2030 and direct supply to aircraft makers, extended its repair licence for that platform to 2036, and TAT bought three 131-9A APUs.
current state · 2026-07-14written 2026-10-18
C20facthigh confidence
Five customers were 32.6% of 2025 revenue, and a single repair customer was 14.5%, against 12.8% in 2024 and 12.6% in 2023.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18
C07management claimmedium confidence
Management said it ended March 2026 with about $15.5M of APU and landing gear work orders near completion but waiting for missing parts.
against this

Landing gear revenue fell in the first half even after parts arrived, so not all of the shortfall was timing (C08).

historical · first quarter of 2026written 2026-10-18
C42management claimhigh confidence
The chief executive said any acquisition will be at a lower multiple than TAT trades on, financed half with debt and half with money raised in the capital market, and that group overhead was expanded in late 2025 to prepare.
against this

TAT has not yet made an acquisition under the programme, and the overhead built for it is already in the first half's costs (C03).

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C29facthigh confidence
Diluted shares rose from 8.87M in 2021 to 12.28M in 2025; in May 2025 TAT sold 1,625,000 new shares while FIMI sold 2,525,000.
historical · 2021 to 2025written 2026-10-18
What we still do not know
  • How much of the repair market for each Honeywell engine TAT really holds, measured by someone other than TAT.
  • What the new parts distribution will sell, and at what margin.
  • Who the 14.5% customer is, and when its agreement ends.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C15management claimlow confidence
TAT estimates, from Boeing and Airbus fleet data, that it holds about 45% of an $85M 331-200 repair market, about 2% of a $290M 331-500 market and under 1% of a $2.2B 131 market.
against this

The shares rest on Boeing and Airbus fleet data and TAT's own estimates; no outside source sizes APU repair by model, and Honeywell and StandardAero also repair the 331-200.

current state · 2026-08-05written 2026-10-18
C45management claimhigh confidence
The chief executive called the Honeywell parts deal the first time TAT will run a distribution business, and the finance chief said TAT began buying inventory for it and expects inventory to keep rising.
against this

Distribution means holding inventory: inventory rose $9.7M in six months and second-quarter operating cash flow was negative (C28).

forwardwritten 2026-10-18
C20facthigh confidence
Five customers were 32.6% of 2025 revenue, and a single repair customer was 14.5%, against 12.8% in 2024 and 12.6% in 2023.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-18

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveA price that pays for today's business

    It needs:

    • ○The company's value falls to 11 times the last four quarters' profit before interest, tax and non-cash charges.about ≈$24.41 today, 26% below the last close
  2. Neutral→AttractiveGrowth comes back with the margin

    It needs all of:

    • ○Sales in the second half of 2026 grow 15% or more on a year earlier.checked at the next results, due by 11 Nov
    • ○That profit reaches 16% of sales in a quarter.checked at the next results, due by 11 Nov
  3. Neutral→UnattractiveThe slowdown is the business

    It needs any of:

    • ○Half-year sales growth falls below 5%.checked at the next results, due by 11 Nov
    • ○Honeywell narrows or ends a repair licence TAT holds.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
  • The 14.5% customer moves its work elsewhere.
  • That profit margin falls below 12% for two quarters running.

What is coming

  • 11 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether growth returns above the first half's 10% with margins near 14% and positive operating cash flow, and the first word on parts distribution sales.
Every dated event ahead
  • 11 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether growth returns above the first half's 10% with margins near 14% and positive operating cash flow, and the first word on parts distribution sales.
  • 31 March 2027 Full-year 2026 results and 20-F: The year's segment split, the backlog's firm and non-binding parts, and the largest customer's share.
Since we wrote this
Written
18 Oct
Price the thesis read
$32.84
16 Oct
  • 18 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionA licensed APU repairer with a real edge whose growth stalled on parts, at a price that asks for it to resume.

Sources 23

Where this came from

Sources - 23

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-03-18
    business, segments, the Honeywell licences, competitors, customers, backlog, royalties, geography, ownership, management and pay
    backsC01C02C09C11C12C17C20C21C29C39C40C41C47C49
  2. S02primarycompany filing2026-03-18
    full-year 2025 revenue, margins, adjusted EBITDA, operating cash flow and year-end backlog
    backsC22C27C37C49
  3. S03primarycompany filing2026-08-05
    second-quarter and half-year results, the stake sale gain, backlog, cash and inventory
    backsC05C22C28C37
  4. S04primarycompany filing2026-08-05
    revenue by product line, quarterly adjusted EBITDA and operating income, and TAT's APU platform market estimates
    backsC08C15C34
  5. S05primarycompany filing2026-08-05
    segment revenue and operating income for the quarter and half to June 2026
    backsC03C30
  6. S06primarycompany filing2026-10-18
    annual revenue, margins, R&D, cash flow, capital spending and diluted shares (frozen in content/TATT/financials.json)
    backsC04C29C30C44C48
  7. S07primarytranscript2026-08-10
    Second quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-08-10
    data/cache/transcripts/TATT-2026Q2.json
    the baseline guidance, the 131 and 331-500 strategy, the distribution deal, inventory, the credit line and acquisition financing
    look at the average of the first 6 months of the year rather than thinking that the second quarter is the baseline for the future
    backsC06C16C28C42C45
  8. S08primarytranscript2026-05-20
    First quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-05-20
    data/cache/transcripts/TATT-2026Q1.json
    work orders held up by missing parts and on-time delivery
    we ended the quarter with approximately $15.5 million of APU and Landing Gears open work orders at our shops
    backsC07
  9. S09primarycompany filing2026-07-14
    the sole distribution of 331-200/250 spares, its exclusions, the licence extension to 2036 and the 131-9A purchase
    backsC10
  10. S10primaryregulator2026-10-18
    14 CFR 145.109, Equipment, materials, and data requirements (eCFR) US Federal Aviation Administration (Electronic Code of Federal Regulations)
    what a certificated repair station must hold to work on a maker's unit
    The equipment, tools, and material must be those recommended by the manufacturer of the article or must be at least equivalent to those recommended by the manufacturer and acceptable to the FAA.
    backsC13
  11. S11primarycompany filing2026-03-01
    its own description as an independent APU and engine overhauler
    backsC18
  12. S12primarycompany filing2026-07-20
    its component repair facilities and parts supply business
    backsC19
  13. S13primarycompany filing2026-01-20
    the E170/5 landing gear contract's value and term
    backsC23
  14. S14primarycompany filing2026-03-11
    the two APU contracts' values and terms
    backsC23
  15. S15primarycompany filing2026-06-03
    the awards' aggregate value and terms and the expected gain
    backsC23
  16. S16primaryindustry data2026-03-01
    Oliver Wyman, Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2026-2036, executive summary (published by ARSA) Oliver Wyman, published by the Aeronautical Repair Station Association
    repair spending in 2025, 2026 and 2036 by type and region, fleet age, the order backlog and flight hours
    Global MRO demand was $136 billion in 2025, an 8% increase from $126 billion in 2024.
    backsC24C25
  17. S17primarytranscript2026-03-19
    Fourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-03-19
    data/cache/transcripts/TATT-2025Q4.json
    margin targets and aspiration, parts and teardown constraints, seasonality
    You see EBITDA is in the range of 20%, a little bit more. That's where we aspire to be. It's not a forecast
    backsC26
  18. S18secondaryvendor data2026-10-18
    Research pack frozen beside this thesis, 2026-10-18
    content/TATT/research-pack.json
    the 16 October close, the 252-day decomposition, ratings and their history, estimates, earnings history, FINRA short interest, headcount and the filed cohort
    backsC30C32C36C37C49C51
  19. S19secondaryvendor data2026-10-18
    daily closes around the results and the offering
    backsC31
  20. S20primarycompany filing2026-06-22
    every open-market insider sale with the Rule 10b5-1 flag
    backsC38
  21. S21primarycompany filing2026-07-27
    the chief executive's new pay terms, the peer group and the share purchase plan
    backsC40
  22. S22primarycompany filing2026-09-09
    that every proposal, including the pay terms, was approved
    backsC40
  23. S23primarycompany filing2026-03-18
    the growth pillars, the APU licence position, the lease pool and the backlog's method
    backsC52
Rendered from content/TATT/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-18. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.