PayPal Holdings
The PayPal button you click to pay online, plus Venmo for paying friends and Braintree, which processes card payments for big online stores.
The scores
Growth2/4 →
Revenue grew 5% and transaction margin dollars 1% in Q2 2026, with active accounts flat and the button at 2%.
Business quality2/4 ↓
439M accounts and Venmo's network are real, but the button loses share to wallets and Klarna, and Braintree competes on price.
Financial position3/4 →
Corporate cash of $13.5B matches $13.4B of debt spread to 2062, and $6.6B of yearly free cash flow services it.
Execution record2/4 ↑
The button slowed to 1%, the 2027 outlook was dropped and the chief executive replaced, though 2026's quarters beat estimates.
Per share capture4/4 →
Diluted shares fell 7.8% in a year on $6B of buybacks, far above share pay, with no convertibles.
Potential2/4 →
Agentic checkout, PYUSD and Venmo's monetisation are real options, but none is committed or disclosed, and agentic matters from 2028.
Risk profile3/4 →
Regulated in many countries and sued over branded checkout statements, but no customer is 10% of revenue and no single ruling breaks it.
Valuation3/4 →
At 9.9 times trailing and 9.1 times 2027 earnings, the price pays for profits that hold, which is management's plan.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Revenue, margin dollars and the balance sheet are filed and Census is independent, but branded checkout and Venmo figures are management's word.
If it works 1.1× · if it fails you keep about 100%.
The Verdict
We rate PayPal neutral. It is a huge, profitable payments business, but a mixed one: its checkout button, which earns most of the money, is growing far slower than online shopping, while Venmo and Braintree grow faster on thinner margins. The price is fair: about 10 times last year's earnings is about right if profits simply hold and buybacks shrink the share count; growth would be extra. As a bet on agentic checkout and its stablecoin it is safe but has little upside: the rest of the company covers today's price, so the new businesses come free, but even a big success there adds only about a tenth.
The long caseIf shoppers let AI assistants buy for them, those assistants need a trusted way to pay, and PayPal already holds the accounts and the merchants.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
Branded checkout is global and Census covers only US retail sales, which exclude travel and services, so the gap is indicative rather than a measured share.
GAAP earnings are guided down mid-single digits for 2026, so even holding requires the cost programme to work.
The 2025 buybacks were made a third above today's price.
No agentic volume, revenue or merchant count has been disclosed.
Free cash flow swings with the sale of pay-later loans, so adjusted free cash flow of at least $6B is the guided figure.
The company
When you pay at an online store by clicking the PayPal button, PayPal logs you in, takes the money from a card, bank or balance you stored, and pays the store, charging the store a percentage. Shoppers avoid typing their card into every site; stores add the button because millions of shoppers already have accounts.
PayPal also owns Venmo, a US app for paying friends, and Braintree, which processes ordinary card payments for large stores, competing with Stripe and Adyen.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Much of the volume growth is Braintree's unbranded processing, which carries a lower take rate, so the fall is partly mix rather than price.
PayPal does not report Braintree's revenue or margin, so 'profitable growth' cannot be checked.
How it makes money
Most revenue is a fee on each payment: about 1.6 cents per dollar of volume in the June quarter. The rest is interest on customer balances and on loans such as pay-later.
What matters is the money left after paying card networks and covering fraud and bad loans, which PayPal calls transaction margin dollars. That grew just 1% to $3.90B. PayPal reports one business, so nobody outside knows how much each part earns.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
Transaction margin dollars are PayPal's own non-GAAP measure; GAAP operating income fell 5% to $1,427M in the same quarter.
- 2026-10-27editedRe-struck on the Q3 2026 release: margin dollars excluding interest up 3%, the line the next test set.
Much of the volume growth is Braintree's unbranded processing, which carries a lower take rate, so the fall is partly mix rather than price.
Credit margin dollars depend on loss rates that have not been through a recession at this book size.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (FY2025) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Transaction revenues | 89.8% | Fees on each payment through checkout, Venmo, Braintree processing and cross-border transfers: a percentage of volume, fixed fees and currency conversion charges. |
| Other value-added services | 10.2% | Interest and fees on consumer and merchant loans, a partner bank's revenue share, interest on customer balances, Honey, gateway and other service fees. |
Who runs it
Enrique Lores became chief executive in March 2026, after running HP and chairing PayPal's board; Jamie Miller, once GE's finance chief, runs finance and operations. Insiders own well under 1% of the company. Their yearly bonus rides on transaction profit and operating income; their long-term shares pay on sales growth and earnings per share, adjusted by how the stock does against the market. Lores's largest award pays only if the share price rises well above where he started.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Non-GAAP operating income missed its 2025 target ($6.384B against $6.500B), yet the bonus still paid 98% because margin dollars beat theirs; no award pays on free cash flow or return on capital.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
PayPal's protection is its network: stores add the button because shoppers hold accounts, and shoppers keep accounts because stores take them.
The network is leaking. In the June quarter the button's volume grew about 2% while US online sales grew 12%, so PayPal is taking a shrinking slice of online spending. Phone wallets and pay-later buttons now sit beside it on the same checkout page.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
Management says branded experiences volume including debit and tap-to-pay grew 6%, so the online button alone understates the wallet's use.
- 2026-10-27editedThe Q3 2026 release carries no branded-checkout figure (the phrase is absent); the reading waits for the 10-Q, slides or call, so the refresh date moved.
- 2026-10-27editedThe Q3 2026 call gave the missing figure: branded checkout 1% to 2% for four quarters, guided the same for Q4.
Branded checkout is global and Census covers only US retail sales, which exclude travel and services, so the gap is indicative rather than a measured share.
The threat
Every part has a named rival. Apple Pay and Google Pay are preloaded on phones and now carry Klarna's pay-later inside them. Klarna sells its own button at the same stores. Cash App, with 59 million monthly users, fights Venmo. Stripe and Adyen compete with Braintree on price, which keeps its margins thin.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
No filing gives Braintree's share against them, so how much price competition costs it is unknown.
The rivals: AAPL, GOOGL, KLAR, KLAR, XYZ, AFRM, GPN, FOUR, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | Where it competes | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL · GOOGL | Apple Pay and Google PayPriced against it: Small part of it | Branded checkout and the PayPal wallet | On sale | Small part of it |
| KLAR | KlarnaPriced against it: Yes | Branded checkout and the PayPal wallet | On sale | Yes |
| Klarna's AI shopping assistant | Agentic commerce and new payment rails (agentic checkout, PYUSD, PayPal World) | On sale | ||
| XYZ | Cash AppPriced against it: Yes | Venmo and consumer financial services | On sale | Yes |
| AFRM | AffirmPriced against it: One segment only | Venmo and consumer financial services | On sale | One segment only |
| Private | StripePriced against it: Private | Braintree and payment services | On sale | Private |
| AdyenPriced against it: Listed abroad | Braintree and payment services | On sale | Listed abroad | |
| GPN | Global PaymentsPriced against it: One segment only | - | On sale | One segment only |
| FOUR | Shift4 PaymentsPriced against it: One segment only | - | On sale | One segment only |
How big it could get
How big this could get
US online shopping alone was $340.2B in the June quarter, 17.1% of all retail, and growing about 12% a year. PayPal's volume of every kind was $486.4B in the same quarter.
The market is large and growing; the problem is PayPal's share of it, which no published figure measures, because nobody counts online sales by payment button.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
Much of the volume growth is Braintree's unbranded processing, which carries a lower take rate, so the fall is partly mix rather than price.
Where the growth is coming from, business by business
Where the growth is coming from
| Business | Share of revenue | Growth: last quarter | Last half-year | Last year | Share in 3 years at its half-year rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction Revenue | 90% | +2.5% | +3.9% | +4.4% | 91% |
| Other Value Added Services | 10% | -2.5% | -1.1% | +4.2% | 9% |
| Whole company | 100% | +2.0% | +3.4% | +4.4% | 100% |
On the filed split through 2026-09-30, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 3% next year and 3% in year 3, against 5.7% over the last twelve months. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.
The results
The numbers
Sales grew 4.4% over the twelve months to Sep 2026, about the same pace as the 4.3% in the year to Dec 2025.
Operating margin is 17%, about where it was (17%) in the year to Dec 2023.
Yearly sales growth has ranged from +4.3% to +18% over the last 5 years.
Shareholders' money earned 24% a year.
It turned 18% of sales into free cash, $6.30B over the last twelve months.
It owes $3.19B more than the cash it holds, about 0.5 years of the cash its operations bring in.
The share count fell 28% in 4.8 years, and pay in shares costs 3.1% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-27. Fiscal years end in December.
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | 12 mo to Sep 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $25.4B | $27.5B | $29.8B | $31.8B | $33.2B | $34.3B |
| Sales growth | +18% | +8.5% | +8.2% | +6.8% | +4.3% | +4.4% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Operating margin | 17% | 14% | 17% | 17% | 18% | 17% |
| Net margin | 16% | 8.8% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 14% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Sales and marketing | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% |
| General and admin | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% |
| Pay in shares | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.1% |
| Capital spending | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | $5.80B | $5.81B | $4.84B | $7.45B | $6.42B | $7.09B |
| Free cash flow | $4.89B | $5.11B | $4.22B | $6.77B | $5.56B | $6.30B |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $9.50B | $10.9B | $14.1B | $10.9B | $10.4B | $10.3B |
| Debt | $8.05B | $10.4B | $9.68B | $9.88B | $11.6B | $13.5B |
| Net cash | $1.45B | $451M | $4.38B | $1.04B | −$1.16B | −$3.19B |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Return on capital | 15% | 9.1% | - | - | - | - |
| Shares (diluted) | 1.19B | 1.16B | 1.11B | 1.04B | 968M | 858M |
What growth costs
PayPal now spends a smaller share of each sales dollar on engineers, marketing and offices than it did five years ago. But the fees it pays card networks and banks for each payment grew faster than sales, as more volume comes through low-margin processing. The two nearly cancel, so growth has barely widened the margin, and this year costs are set to grow faster than sales.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Non-transaction expenses are guided up 7% to 8% in 2026, so the savings fund spending rather than margins for now.
The last report (28 Jul)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
In the September quarter revenue rose 2% to $8.6B, adjusted earnings rose 8% to $1.45 a share, and the money left after payment costs, excluding interest, grew 3% to $3.7B. PayPal raised its full-year targets for that money and for earnings, and bought back $1.5B of shares.
On the call, management said the checkout button's volume has grown 1% to 2% for four quarters and expects the same in the December quarter, with Venmo and Braintree volume growing 10% or more. It guided the December quarter's money-left figure to slightly positive growth and aimed for 2027 earnings growth like this year's, spending more to get there.
What it did to the thesisCheckout stayed where we assumed and the next quarter is guided near flat, so the button has not recovered and the view holds.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $1.38 against $1.28 expected; $1.25 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Transaction margin dollars are PayPal's own non-GAAP measure; GAAP operating income fell 5% to $1,427M in the same quarter.
- 2026-10-27editedRe-struck on the Q3 2026 release: margin dollars excluding interest up 3%, the line the next test set.
Management says branded experiences volume including debit and tap-to-pay grew 6%, so the online button alone understates the wallet's use.
- 2026-10-27editedThe Q3 2026 release carries no branded-checkout figure (the phrase is absent); the reading waits for the 10-Q, slides or call, so the refresh date moved.
- 2026-10-27editedThe Q3 2026 call gave the missing figure: branded checkout 1% to 2% for four quarters, guided the same for Q4.
The December guide is slightly positive margin-dollar growth, below the 3% of the September quarter, and management said 2027 needs more spending on margin dollars and operating costs, so earnings growth leans on buybacks and cost savings rather than on the button.
What management did with the money
PayPal spent $6.0B buying back shares in 2025, at about $70 each, a third above today's price, and $3.0B in the first half of 2026 at about $45. A new chief executive, Enrique Lores, took over in March and dropped the 2027 targets set a year earlier.
Insiders in 2026Q3: 14 purchases and 35 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
The 2025 buybacks were made a third above today's price.
Non-transaction expenses are guided up 7% to 8% in 2026, so the savings fund spending rather than margins for now.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Fair. The price pays for today's profits holding, with buybacks lifting each share's earnings, and nothing for the button recovering or the new businesses working.
The shares fell 20.8% over the past year even though revenue per share rose 14.6%: buyers simply pay less for each dollar of sales.
The call showed the button holding at 1% to 2% and the December quarter guided near flat; the next results, around early February, are the next full test, with management's 2027 plan due then.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
Both reports rest on Bloomberg and Reuters sources; no company or bidder statement confirms the offer, its terms or why it ended.
- 2026-10-27editedAnalyst split not re-read in this review; refresh date moved.
Management says branded experiences volume including debit and tap-to-pay grew 6%, so the online button alone understates the wallet's use.
- 2026-10-27editedThe Q3 2026 release carries no branded-checkout figure (the phrase is absent); the reading waits for the 10-Q, slides or call, so the refresh date moved.
- 2026-10-27editedThe Q3 2026 call gave the missing figure: branded checkout 1% to 2% for four quarters, guided the same for Q4.
The December guide is slightly positive margin-dollar growth, below the 3% of the September quarter, and management said 2027 needs more spending on margin dollars and operating costs, so earnings growth leans on buybacks and cost savings rather than on the button.
How we read the multiple
What the price asks of the business, step by step:
- Over four quarters PayPal earned $4.90B after tax.
- At $52.80 a share the whole company costs about $45.2B, about 10 times those earnings.
- Earning about a dime a year on each dollar paid is, by a common rule of thumb, what a business that never grows should return.
- So the price needs profits only to hold; fewer shares each year then lift each share's earnings.
Against its own history. Far cheaper than its own past, because buyers once paid for a fast grower and now pay for a slow one; the business changed more than the mood.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
GAAP earnings are guided down mid-single digits for 2026, so even holding requires the cost programme to work.
Free cash flow swings with the sale of pay-later loans, so adjusted free cash flow of at least $6B is the guided figure.
The 2025 buybacks were made a third above today's price.
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on price for each $1 of sales, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | price for each $1 of sales |
|---|---|---|
| KLAR | Klarna Group | 1.2× |
| PYPL | PayPal Holdings | 1.3× |
| XYZ | Block | 1.8× |
The middle of the other 2 is 1.5. PayPal Holdings, Inc. is 2nd cheapest of 3.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
On sales it sits between its two listed rivals, so the low price is PayPal's own story, not a discount on the whole group.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Stripe, Adyen N.V., Apple Pay (Apple Inc.).
The bet: what it pays if it works
The bet is on PayPal's newest businesses: checkout done by AI assistants, its stablecoin and links to other wallets. The rest of the company is counted separately, at about what buyers pay today for each dollar of its profit.
That rest covers today's price,: the new businesses come free and little is lost if they fail. But even if AI checkout grew to a few percent of PayPal's volume, the whole company would be worth only about a tenth more, so it is an expensive bet with little upside.
| Agentic commerce and new payment rails (agentic checkout, PYUSD, PayPal World) revenue in two to three years | $10B blocks of agentic checkout volume needed | Valued like its peers | Like the cheapest |
|---|---|---|---|
| $970.00M (the big win) | about 6 at 100% kept | 1.1× | 1.1× |
| $1.93B | about 12 at 100% kept | 1.1× | 1.1× |
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $34.45B of Agentic commerce and new payment rails (agentic checkout, PYUSD, PayPal World) revenue (about 214 $10B blocks of agentic checkout volume); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $147.37B of Agentic commerce and new payment rails (agentic checkout, PYUSD, PayPal World) revenue (about 915 $10B blocks of agentic checkout volume), at the same multiple.
Each row is Agentic commerce and new payment rails (agentic checkout, PYUSD, PayPal World) alone, plus the rest of the company (Checkout, Venmo and Braintree) counted at about $49.00B.
The steps it has to take
- Done Agentic checkout live on AI assistants, Perplexity and Microsoft Copilot
- Not started PayPal discloses agentic checkout volume or revenue due 2027-02-28
- Not started PYUSD circulation passes $5B due 2027-12-31
- Not started Agentic payments a meaningful contributor, by management's account due 2028-12-31
The detail behind the label
The evidence under this - 5 claims
No agentic volume, revenue or merchant count has been disclosed.
Much of the volume growth is Braintree's unbranded processing, which carries a lower take rate, so the fall is partly mix rather than price.
Free cash flow swings with the sale of pay-later loans, so adjusted free cash flow of at least $6B is the guided figure.
Where we disagree with the market
Most analysts say hold: it looks cheap but stays a trap until the checkout button grows again.
We agree the button is slipping, slowly, and think the price already assumes it, so neither cheap nor a trap.
Bulls point to buybacks and bears to the button, and the price sits between them. What would prove us too cautious is the button growing 5% or more for two quarters while the money left after payment costs grows faster than 5%. What would prove us too generous is that money starting to shrink.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 5 claims
- 2026-10-27editedAnalyst split not re-read in this review; refresh date moved.
GAAP earnings are guided down mid-single digits for 2026, so even holding requires the cost programme to work.
Branded checkout is global and Census covers only US retail sales, which exclude travel and services, so the gap is indicative rather than a measured share.
The 2025 buybacks were made a third above today's price.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- The button keeps losing share Phone wallets and pay-later buttons sit on the same checkout page, and the button already grows far slower than online shopping.
- Growth comes at thin margins Braintree's volume grows fastest but earns little per dollar, so revenue can rise while the profit left after payment costs stalls.
- Buybacks may slow Most per-share growth comes from buying shares back; spending less on that, or paying too much again, would show at once.
- Lawsuits over past statements Shareholders sued over what PayPal said about the checkout button; the cases were combined in May 2026 and no cost is estimated.
- Customer money is not cash About $39.7B on the balance sheet belongs to customers; regulators control how much can be used, so corporate cash only matches debt.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
Branded checkout is global and Census covers only US retail sales, which exclude travel and services, so the gap is indicative rather than a measured share.
PayPal does not report Braintree's revenue or margin, so 'profitable growth' cannot be checked.
The 2025 buybacks were made a third above today's price.
What we still do not know
- How much profit the checkout button earns on its own, and whether it is shrinking: PayPal reports one business.
- What share of US online checkouts PayPal wins against Apple Pay and others; nobody publishes it.
- Why Stripe and Advent walked away, and whether a bidder returns.
- How much agentic checkout earns; nothing has been disclosed.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Branded checkout is global and Census covers only US retail sales, which exclude travel and services, so the gap is indicative rather than a measured share.
Both reports rest on Bloomberg and Reuters sources; no company or bidder statement confirms the offer, its terms or why it ended.
No agentic volume, revenue or merchant count has been disclosed.
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveThe button recovers
It needs all of:
- ○The checkout button's volume grows 5% or more in a year, with currency moves stripped out.checked at the next results, due by 3 Feb
- ○The money left after payment costs, excluding interest, grows 5% or more in a year.checked at the next results, due by 3 Feb
- Neutral→AttractiveThe price falls further
It needs:
- ○The shares fall to 8 times last year's earnings, from about 10 today.checked daily
- Neutral→UnattractiveProfits start shrinking
It needs any of:
- ○The money left after payment costs, excluding interest, shrinks from a year earlier.checked at the next results, due by 3 Feb
- ○The checkout button's volume shrinks from a year earlier.checked at the next results, due by 3 Feb
We would also be wrong if
- Venmo's volume growth falls below 10% for two quarters.
- The share count stops falling over four quarters.
What is coming
- 27 October 2026 Q3 2026 results: Branded checkout against about 2% and margin dollars excluding interest against 3%; whether non-transaction costs, guided up high single digits, start to slow as savings land.
Every dated event ahead
- 27 October 2026 Q3 2026 results: Branded checkout against about 2% and margin dollars excluding interest against 3%; whether non-transaction costs, guided up high single digits, start to slow as savings land.
- February 2027 Q4 2026 results and the 2026 10-K: Whether 2026 lands near $5.38 adjusted EPS and $6B free cash flow, $400M of savings reach run rate, and what Lores's first 2027 outlook says.
- April 2027 2027 proxy statement: The first payout on the revenue-growth and EPS targets, and whether 2027 goals were set above or below what 2026 delivered.
Since we wrote this
- 27 OctEarningsMargin dollars up 3%, guidance raised; checkout growth still unreadMargin dollars excluding interest grew 3%, meeting that half of the test. The release gives no checkout figure, so the view holds.
- 27 OctEarningsCall: checkout 1-2% for four quarters, Q4 margin dollars guided flatThe call supplied the missing checkout figure and a near-flat Q4 guide. The button has not recovered, so the view holds.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe bet now names what it ridesThe owner asked that every bet name the macro trend behind it, after BWXT's bet was missing its chief executive's case for nuclear over gas.
- 4 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionFirst thesis: a cash machine whose button is losing share, at a price that already assumes profits only hold.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
Sources 21
Sources - 21
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-02-03Item 1 businesses and growth areas (PYUSD, agentic commerce, PayPal World, ads), competition classes, revenue by type and country, no customer above 10% of revenue, buybacks, PayPal Bank application, headcountbacksC01C07C14C20C35C42C44C45C46C50
- S02primarycompany filing2026-07-28income statement, one reportable segment, balance sheet, customer accounts against funds payable, corporate liquidity, the CSSF arrangement, notes and maturities, buybacks, branded checkout securities litigationbacksC01C02C11C14C25C29C33C34C35C36C37C41C44C50
- S03primarycompany release2026-07-28revenue, transaction margin dollars with and without interest, TPV, active accounts, payment transactions, free cash flow, raised 2026 guidancebacksC02C03C04C26C27C38C43
- S04primarycompany release2026-02-03full-year 2025 revenue, earnings and free cash flow, the February 2026 guidance, the chief executive appointmentbacksC37C40
- S05primarytranscript2026-07-28PayPal Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held July 28, 2026branded checkout, Venmo, Braintree, Pay with Venmo and pay-later growth rates, financial services share of margin dollars, Q3 guide, the cost programme, agentic timing
On a currency-neutral basis, online branded checkout volume growth stabilized at 2% for a second consecutive quarter, while Braintree and Venmo continue to grow in the mid-teens.
backsC05C07C08C09C10C12C38C39 - S06primarytranscript2026-02-03PayPal Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held February 3, 2026branded checkout slowing to 1%, Venmo 2025 revenue, agentic checkout launches and timing, withdrawal of the 2027 outlook, the new chief executive
However, in the fourth quarter, online branded checkout TPV grew 1% on a currency-neutral basis, down from 5% in the third quarter.
backsC05C09C12C40 - S07primarytranscript2026-05-05PayPal Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held May 5, 2026branded checkout at 2% in Q1 2026 and the full-year branded guide
Online branded checkout volume growth improved slightly compared to last quarter, up 2% on a currency-neutral basis.
backsC05 - S08primarycompany filing2026-05-05Q1 2026 income statement and net incomebacksC37
- S09primarygovernment data2026-08-19US retail e-commerce of $340.2B in Q2 2026, seasonally adjusted, 17.1% of retail, up 12.2% against 6.7% for all retail
The second quarter 2026 e-commerce estimate increased 12.2 percent (±0.9 percent) from the second quarter of 2025 while total retail sales increased 6.7 percent (±0.5 percent) in the same period.
backsC06C07 - S10secondaryindustry data2026-10-04PYUSD circulating $2.87B against $3.01B a month earlier, all stablecoins $314B, USDT $184B and USDC $74BbacksC13
- S11primarycompany filing2026-02-24Cash App's 59 million monthly transacting actives and its wallet, debit card and pay-later, Square's merchant processingbacksC22
- S12primarycompany filing2026-03-31its competitor list naming PayPal, 118 million active consumers and about 966 thousand merchants, distribution through Stripe and Adyen, pay-later inside Apple Pay and Google Pay, its AI shopping assistantbacksC20C21C24
- S13primarycompany filing2026-08-27its competitor list naming PayPal, Block and Klarna among pay-over-time rivalsbacksC23
- S14secondarynews2026-07-15the reported non-binding $60.50 offer from Stripe and Advent and its premium
According to reports, the non-binding offer values PayPal at $60.50 per share, representing a premium of about 28% compared to the stock’s previous closing price of $47.
backsC32 - S15secondarynews2026-08-28the reported end of the Stripe and Advent pursuit and the share fall
Privately held payments firm Stripe and private equity firm Advent had given up their pursuit of PayPal (PYPL), Bloomberg reported Thursday night, citing sources.
backsC24C32 - S16secondaryvendor data2026-10-04Research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, the filer's XBRL statements), frozen at content/PYPL/research-pack.jsonprice history, multiples and their six-year medians, the price-move decomposition, analyst estimates and rating series, earnings surprises, short interest, the filed-competitor cohortbacksC25C26C27C28C29C30C43
- S17primarycompany filing2026-10-04Form 4 filings read by insider_fetch.py, October 2025 to October 2026each open-market purchase and sale with its Rule 10b5-1 flagbacksC31
- S18primarycompany filing2023-02-102021 and 2022 operating expense lines (technology and development, sales and marketing, general and administrative, customer support, transaction expense)backsC45C46C50
- S19primarycompany filing2026-04-07beneficial ownership at March 25, 2026, executive officer biographies and start dates, the 2025 annual incentive plan goals and payout, the 2026-2028 PBRSU metrics, Enrique Lores's offer letter and inducement awardbacksC47C48C49
- S20primarycompany filing2026-10-27Q3 2026 revenue, margin dollars, EPS, volume, accounts, cash flow, buybacks, and the statement that full-year guidance was raised.backsC03C51C52
- S21primarytranscript2026-10-27PayPal Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-10-27data/cache/transcripts/PYPL-2026Q3.jsonBranded checkout TPV 1-2% for four quarters, Venmo and Braintree TPV, the Q4 and full-year guide, and the 2027 earnings-growth target.
Branded checkout TPV growth has remained relatively stable in the 1%-2% range for four quarters, despite various headwinds.
backsC05C09C52