NextEra Energy
America's largest power company: a Florida utility with no rival in its territory, plus the country's biggest builder of wind, solar, battery and gas plants sold under long contracts.
Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth4/4 ↑
Regulatory capital employed up 9.3% year over year, a 35.1 GW NEER backlog, and 8%+ standalone / 9%+ combined adjusted EPS CAGR guidance through 2032.
Business quality4/4 →
A regulated monopoly franchise plus the largest contracted renewables developer in the US, though hyperscaler self-build competes for NEER's future large-load growth.
Financial position3/4 →
Debt grew with the capital program (long-term debt up about $9.2B in six months) but remains investment-grade with stated credit-rating improvement expected from the merger.
Execution record4/4 →
FPL and NEER both delivered guided growth again, Duane Arnold stayed on schedule, and the companies have out-built the next 25 largest utilities since 2021.
Per share capture3/4 →
An all-stock deal management calls immediately accretive, but GAAP EPS this quarter was flattered by a noncontrolling-interest loss allocation.
Potential3/4 ↑
A real, signed 10 GW government-backed gas agreement and a 35.1 GW backlog, but FPL's 21 GW large-load pipeline and the Kentucky campus remain unsigned.
Risk profile2/4 ↓
Five separate regulatory approvals, organized political opposition, and a deal structure that prices its own regulatory-failure risk at $4.83 billion.
Valuation2/4 →
The richest multiple in a clean, three-peer regulated-utility cohort on nearly every metric except P/E, which reads cheaper than peers.
Evidence quality4/4 →
Central claims rest on primary merger filings and NEE's own clean, reconciling financial data, cross-checked against independent political and market-reaction sources.
The Verdict
We rate NextEra neutral. It owns Florida's main power company, which has no rival in its territory, and America's biggest builder of wind, solar, battery and gas plants, and it is a strong business that earns the best returns among its peers. Its shares already cost more than rival utilities', and the price assumes it keeps that edge while its purchase of Dominion Energy clears five regulators, so it is full, not cheap. The view hinges on that deal: clearance with no costly conditions would support it, while a refusal would cost a large fee. We think the opposition from governors and senators is a real risk the price ignores.
The long caseAmerica needs more electricity than it has in decades, for data centres and new factories, and NextEra builds and owns the plants; regulators must let it charge for them.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C01facthigh confidence
NextEra Energy is the largest electric power and energy infrastructure company in North America, owning Florida Power & Light (FPL), which serves about 12 million people across Florida, and NextEra Energy Resources (NEER), described as the largest energy-infrastructure developer in the US, spanning natural gas, nuclear, renewable energy and battery storage.
C32management claimmedium confidence
Combined FPL, Dominion Energy Virginia/North Carolina and Dominion Energy South Carolina peak load is projected to rise from about 59 GW in 2026 to about 81 GW by 2032; FPL's own internal forecast includes about 8 GW of large load through 2032.
against this
This is a company-prepared forecast blending FPL's internal projections with PJM's own DOM-zone summer-peak forecast and Dominion Energy South Carolina's 2026 IRP winter-peak forecast, which use different methodologies stitched together rather than one consistent modeling approach across all four states.
C05management claimmedium confidence
The pro forma combined company is projected to have approximately 10 million utility customer accounts across Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina, about 110 GW of generation, an approximately $138B regulated rate base, roughly $249B market capitalization and $420B enterprise value as of the announcement date, an A-/Baa1/A- credit rating, and 90-95% of its business regulated or long-term contracted (up from about 90% for NextEra standalone); it would rank first in nearly every category measured (total generation, renewables generation, nuclear generation, battery storage, annual capex, rate base, market cap) and would be the third-largest US energy company by enterprise value.
against this
These are pro forma, management-prepared figures as of the May 2026 announcement date that will move with both companies' stock prices and have not been independently audited or confirmed by a regulator; the deal has not closed and the figures assume it closes on the stated terms.
C20facthigh confidence
On the filed-competitor cohort (D, DUK, AEP), NEE's TTM EV/EBITDA is 16.8x against 11.4x for Duke and 11.7x for AEP, the richest of the three with a usable figure; EV/EBIT is 31.1x against a median of 18.9x; EV/Sales is 9.2x against 5.4x; price-to-sales is 5.5x against 2.9x; price-to-book is 2.8x against 1.8x - NEE trades at the richest multiple in its cohort on every enterprise-value, sales and book measure.
sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primaryPortfolio-management research pack (vendor_fundamentals…secondary
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the refreshed pack at the 25 September 2026 close, after a 9.0% fall in the share price: EV/EBITDA 16.8x (was 17.8x) against a two-peer median of 11.55x (was 11.9x of three), because the pack now withholds Dominion from the profit-line measures; EV/EBIT 31.1x from 32.9x; EV/Sales 9.2x from 9.7x; P/S 5.5x from 6.0x; P/B 2.8x from 3.1x. Still the richest on each.
C21factmedium confidence
NEE's TTM P/E is 17.0x, below the three-peer cohort median of 20.3x and the lowest of the four, level with Duke's 17.0x - the opposite direction from its EV/EBITDA reading - while NEE's TTM ROE (16.8%), gross margin (71.8%) and operating margin (29.5%) are each the highest in the cohort.
sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primaryPortfolio-management research pack (vendor_fundamentals…secondary
against this
A below-peer P/E alongside an above-peer EV/EBITDA on the same company is unusual and worth treating as a definitional question rather than picking whichever reads more favorably: NEE's superior ROE and margins are real and help justify some premium, but the P/E figure is also flattered this year by the same GAAP items (C14) that adjusted earnings exclude, which a TTM P/E does not adjust for.
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the refreshed pack at the 25 September 2026 close: P/E 17.0x (was 18.7x) against a median of 20.3x (was 20.8x), now cheapest of four level with Duke rather than second; ROE, gross margin and operating margin unchanged and still the highest, operating margin now against the two peers the pack keeps on that measure.
C08factmedium confidence
Closing requires HSR Act clearance and regulatory clearances from FERC, the NRC, the Virginia SCC, the North Carolina Utilities Commission and the South Carolina PSC, each without a 'Burdensome Condition' as defined in the Merger Agreement; the companies filed for state and federal merger approvals on July 15, 2026 (Virginia's filing triggering a 180-day statutory review in SCC case PUR-2026-00112, with an evidentiary hearing set to begin November 17, 2026), and both shareholder approvals were obtained on September 3, 2026: NEE's share-issuance proposal passed with 99.47% of votes cast and Dominion's merger proposal with 671.3M votes for against 8.6M against. Virginia's consumer counsel in the Attorney General's office has asked the SCC to treat the September 14 benefits package as an amended application and restart the 180-day clock, which the SCC had not ruled on as of September 24, 2026; management continues to expect the transaction to close in the second half of 2027. The 21 October 2026 release says procedural schedules are set with hearings in Virginia in November and South Carolina in December and final orders expected in January 2027, the North Carolina Utilities Commission's expert witness hearings begin in February 2027, the federal reviews are underway, and the companies still expect to close in the second half of 2027. Testimony filed in Virginia on 2026-10-19 shows the governor's consultant and the SCC's own staff both saying the merger should not be approved as filed; staff suggested limits on Dominion's dividends and an independent board, and on the 21 October call chief executive John Ketchum said he stands behind the filing, will file rebuttal in about two weeks, and sees room for compromise on specific issues.
sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primaryNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryNextEra Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the 2026 special…primaryDominion Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the special meetingprimaryVirginia State Corporation Commission - Dominion-NextEra…primaryVirginia Scope - AG asks SCC to restart Dominion-NextEra…secondaryNextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryWHRO - Spanberger, SCC staff say no to Dominion/NextEra…secondaryNextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary
against this
- Five separate regulatory clearances is a high bar for a single timeline, and the Virginia review has already drawn unusual process: the SCC added in-person public hearings, and consumer counsel is asking for the clock to restart, which from September 14 would run to about March 2027 rather than January 2027; the Merger Agreement's own outside date (C09) extends to August 2028 specifically to accommodate the Regulatory Clearances not being satisfied on the H2 2027 timeline management states as its base case.
- Virginia's governor and the SCC staff both testified on 2026-10-19 that the deal should not proceed as filed, with the staff citing the risk NextEra's unregulated businesses would put on the Virginia utility and proposing dividend limits and an independent board; this is the kind of testimony the pre-registered test named as pressure, though the three-judge panel need not follow it.
- 2026-09-24editedBoth shareholder votes passed on 2026-09-03 (NEE and Dominion Item 5.07 8-Ks); added the Virginia SCC docket schedule and the consumer counsel's request to restart the review clock.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21 gave the state hearing and order schedule; the Virginia clock ruling is still not reported.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: Virginia governor and staff testimony of 2026-10-19 opposes the deal as filed and proposes dividend limits and an independent board; management will rebut and sees room for compromise.
C23factmedium confidence
Sell-side consensus is 24 buy, 11 hold, 1 sell ratings (Buy).
- 2026-09-26editedRe-read in the refreshed pack: 24 buy, 11 hold, 1 sell, unchanged since the first pack.
C09facthigh confidence
The Merger Agreement's termination rights include an outside date of November 15, 2027, extendable to August 15, 2028 if Regulatory Clearances, the absence of a Burdensome Condition, or the absence of certain governmental orders are not yet satisfied; termination fees are $2.24B payable by Dominion to NextEra in Dominion-side break scenarios, $6.52B payable by NextEra to Dominion in NextEra-side break scenarios (including a superior-proposal termination), and specifically $4.83B payable by NextEra to Dominion where termination results from a failure of regulatory-related closing conditions.
The company
NextEra is two businesses. Florida Power & Light is the only licensed electricity supplier in its territory: it serves about 12 million people, added more than 90,000 customers in the June quarter, and keeps typical household bills about 30% below the national average.
NextEra Energy Resources builds wind, solar, battery and gas plants and sells their power under long contracts. Its signed backlog is about 35.1 gigawatts.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C01facthigh confidence
NextEra Energy is the largest electric power and energy infrastructure company in North America, owning Florida Power & Light (FPL), which serves about 12 million people across Florida, and NextEra Energy Resources (NEER), described as the largest energy-infrastructure developer in the US, spanning natural gas, nuclear, renewable energy and battery storage.
C02facthigh confidence
FPL reported Q2 2026 net income of $1.412B ($0.67/sh) versus $1.275B ($0.62/sh) in Q2 2025; regulatory capital employed grew about 9.3% year over year; capital expenditures were approximately $2.8B in the quarter with full-year 2026 capex guided to $12-13B; FPL's typical residential bill remains about 30% below the national average and is projected to rise only about 2% annually through decade-end; non-fuel O&M is more than 70% better than the industry average per megawatt-hour, and reliability is more than 60% better than the national average; FPL added more than 90,000 customers in the quarter.
C03facthigh confidence
NextEra Energy Resources reported Q2 2026 GAAP net income of $1.634B ($0.78/sh) versus $983M ($0.48/sh) in Q2 2025, and adjusted earnings of $1.291B ($0.62/sh) versus $1.091B ($0.53/sh); it added 3.6 GW to its backlog in the quarter (2 GW of which was battery storage), and after accounting for 1.1 GW placed into service since the Q1 2026 call, NEER's backlog now totals approximately 35.1 GW.
How it makes money
Florida Power & Light earns a return, set by its regulator, on every dollar it invests in the grid, recovered through customer bills. So it grows by building: the capital it earns on grew 9.3% in a year, and it will spend $12B to $13B in 2026. The developer fixes most of each plant's revenue in a long contract before construction starts.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C02facthigh confidence
FPL reported Q2 2026 net income of $1.412B ($0.67/sh) versus $1.275B ($0.62/sh) in Q2 2025; regulatory capital employed grew about 9.3% year over year; capital expenditures were approximately $2.8B in the quarter with full-year 2026 capex guided to $12-13B; FPL's typical residential bill remains about 30% below the national average and is projected to rise only about 2% annually through decade-end; non-fuel O&M is more than 70% better than the industry average per megawatt-hour, and reliability is more than 60% better than the national average; FPL added more than 90,000 customers in the quarter.
C03facthigh confidence
NextEra Energy Resources reported Q2 2026 GAAP net income of $1.634B ($0.78/sh) versus $983M ($0.48/sh) in Q2 2025, and adjusted earnings of $1.291B ($0.62/sh) versus $1.091B ($0.53/sh); it added 3.6 GW to its backlog in the quarter (2 GW of which was battery storage), and after accounting for 1.1 GW placed into service since the Q1 2026 call, NEER's backlog now totals approximately 35.1 GW.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (FY2025) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Florida Power & Light | 66.6% | Sells electricity to about 12 million Floridians at tariff rates the Florida regulator sets to earn a return on what it invests. |
| NextEra Energy Resources | 32.0% | Sells power, capacity and transmission from wind, solar, storage, gas and nuclear plants, mostly under long contracts, plus hedge and lease revenue. |
| Corporate and Other | 1.4% | Other activities and eliminations between the two businesses. |
Who runs it
John Ketchum has run NextEra since 2022 and agreed the Dominion merger in 2026; Michael Dunne became finance chief in 2025, the third since 2022. Insiders own well under 1% of the company. Half the yearly bonus rides on earnings growth and return on equity, half on running the plants well; the share awards pay on the same two numbers over three years, nudged by how the stock did against rivals. Nothing pays on cash flow or debt.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C40facthigh confidence
John W. Ketchum has been NEE's president and chief executive since March 2022 and chairman since July 2022; Michael H. Dunne has been chief financial officer since May 22, 2025, after serving as treasurer from January 2023 and as a Bank of America energy investment banker from 2012 to 2022; he followed Terrell Kirk Crews II (CFO March 2022 to May 2024) and Brian W. Bolster (CFO May 2024 to May 2025), who has run NextEra Energy Resources since May 22, 2025 after Goldman Sachs.
C41facthigh confidence
As of March 23, 2026 all directors, nominees and executive officers as a group (22 persons) beneficially owned 3,693,640 shares, 2,175,364 of them acquirable through options within 60 days, which the proxy states is less than 1%; John W. Ketchum held 1,478,528, the largest insider; Vanguard (9.93%), BlackRock (7.26%) and State Street (5.58%) were the only holders above 5%; no shares were pledged.
C42facthigh confidence
The annual bonus pays 50% on adjusted EPS growth and adjusted ROE measured against the industry and 50% on FPL and NEER operating goals, and paid 189% of target for 2025 on adjusted EPS growth of 8.2% and adjusted ROE of 14.8%; performance share awards pay 80% on three-year adjusted ROE and adjusted EPS growth and 20% on operating measures, with a plus or minus 20% relative TSR modifier that cut the 2023-2025 cycle from 198% to 158%. The CEO's 2025 equity was 65% performance shares and 25% options. From 2026 targets rise from the median to the 55th percentile and the individual modifier leaves the share awards.
against this
Nothing in either plan pays on free cash flow, balance-sheet strength or per-share book value, and adjusted EPS excludes hedge marks and non-recurring charges the GAAP figure carries (C14).
C04facthigh confidence
On May 15/18, 2026, NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy entered a definitive, all-stock Agreement and Plan of Merger: Dominion shareholders receive 0.8138 shares of NextEra common stock plus a pro rata share of $360M cash (taxable) per Dominion share, resulting in NextEra and Dominion shareholders owning approximately 74.5% and 25.5% of the combined company; the combined company operates under the NextEra Energy name and NYSE ticker NEE, with dual headquarters in Juno Beach, FL and Richmond, VA and an operational headquarters in Cayce, SC.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
In Florida nobody else can offer a customer a grid connection, so the only question is whether the regulator keeps granting a fair return. Low costs help that case: Florida's average home electricity price is about 18% below the national average, and the utility's running costs beat the industry average by more than 70%.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C38factmedium confidence
Florida's statewide average residential electricity price was 15.17 cents/kWh in May 2026 versus a US average of 18.44 cents/kWh (about 18% below the national average), per EIA's Electric Power Monthly; FPL serves roughly 75% of Florida's population, so this state-level figure is a proxy for, not an FPL-specific measurement of, its low-cost positioning.
against this
This EIA figure is a Florida statewide average across all utilities serving the state, not an FPL-specific rate; FPL's own claim of being about 30% below the national average (C02) is more favorable than the state average, and the state figure blends in other, potentially higher-cost Florida utilities, so it understates rather than overstates FPL's own relative position.
C02facthigh confidence
FPL reported Q2 2026 net income of $1.412B ($0.67/sh) versus $1.275B ($0.62/sh) in Q2 2025; regulatory capital employed grew about 9.3% year over year; capital expenditures were approximately $2.8B in the quarter with full-year 2026 capex guided to $12-13B; FPL's typical residential bill remains about 30% below the national average and is projected to rise only about 2% annually through decade-end; non-fuel O&M is more than 70% better than the industry average per megawatt-hour, and reliability is more than 60% better than the national average; FPL added more than 90,000 customers in the quarter.
The threat
The largest data-centre builders are starting to make their own power on site instead of contracting for it; OpenAI and Anthropic alone have leased more than 10 gigawatts. That cannot touch Florida's households, which have no other grid to join, but it competes for exactly the new demand the developer is chasing.
The evidence under this - 1 claim
C25factmedium confidence
Behind-the-meter, off-grid data-center power is scaling nationally: nearly every hyperscaler is now pursuing behind-the-meter projects, and OpenAI and Anthropic alone have signed leases for more than 10 GW of behind-the-meter power.
against this
Behind-the-meter capacity cannot substitute for FPL's regulated grid connection at all, and most of NEER's own book is already signed under long-term PPAs rather than exposed the way an uncontracted merchant generator's future pipeline is, so this threat bears more on NEER's future contracting pace than on NEE's existing earnings base.
The rivals: SPCX, DUK, AEP, D, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX | xAI (Colossus 1 and 2 gas-turbine sites) and other hyperscalers building behind-the-meter generationPriced against it: Different product | On sale | Different product |
| Private | OpenAI and Anthropic (more than 10 GW of behind-the-meter power leases reported industry-wide)Priced against it: Private | Announced | Private |
| DUK | Duke EnergyPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| AEP | American Electric Power CompanyPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| D | Dominion EnergyPriced against it: No usable figure | On sale | No usable figure |
How big it could get
How big this could get
The companies expect peak demand across Florida, Virginia and the Carolinas to rise from about 59 gigawatts in 2026 to about 81 by 2032. What NextEra holds of it: 35.1 gigawatts of signed developer backlog, and about 21 gigawatts of large-user interest in Florida, 12 in advanced talks and none signed. Nobody publishes how much regional growth becomes NextEra's contracts.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C32management claimmedium confidence
Combined FPL, Dominion Energy Virginia/North Carolina and Dominion Energy South Carolina peak load is projected to rise from about 59 GW in 2026 to about 81 GW by 2032; FPL's own internal forecast includes about 8 GW of large load through 2032.
against this
This is a company-prepared forecast blending FPL's internal projections with PJM's own DOM-zone summer-peak forecast and Dominion Energy South Carolina's 2026 IRP winter-peak forecast, which use different methodologies stitched together rather than one consistent modeling approach across all four states.
C03facthigh confidence
NextEra Energy Resources reported Q2 2026 GAAP net income of $1.634B ($0.78/sh) versus $983M ($0.48/sh) in Q2 2025, and adjusted earnings of $1.291B ($0.62/sh) versus $1.091B ($0.53/sh); it added 3.6 GW to its backlog in the quarter (2 GW of which was battery storage), and after accounting for 1.1 GW placed into service since the Q1 2026 call, NEER's backlog now totals approximately 35.1 GW.
C15management claimmedium confidence
FPL has approximately 21 GW of large-load interest, of which it is in advanced discussions on 12 GW, a portion of which it believes it could begin serving as soon as 2028; FPL continues to expect to announce at least one large-load transaction under its tariff by the end of the year, but as of the Q2 2026 release no such transaction is signed. On the 21 October 2026 call FPL's chief said the pipeline of over 20 GW of interest remains, that the first couple of gigawatts need only battery storage, and that the company remains confident of announcing a deal before the end of the year; no size was given and none is signed.
sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryNextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary
against this
'Advanced discussions' and 'continues to expect to announce' are management's own characterization of an unsigned pipeline; the same or similar language has now appeared across at least two consecutive quarterly releases without a signed transaction, which is worth watching for whether the pipeline is genuinely close or persistently optimistic.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: year-end announcement expectation restated aloud, still unsigned and unsized.
Who has signed
The one large new commitment is unusual: government-funded gas plants in Texas and Pennsylvania, first agreed with the US Department of Commerce and Japan for up to 10 gigawatts. On 21 October NextEra said three such hubs, about 16.5 gigawatts, are signed with $5.7B of first funding, built for fees. The first plants are due by the end of 2028.
The evidence under this - 1 claim
C16management claimmedium confidence
NextEra Energy announced it executed definitive agreements with the US Department of Commerce and the Government of Japan to fund the development and operation of up to 10 GW of natural gas-powered generation in Texas and Pennsylvania (including a roughly 4.3 GW project in Pennsylvania), releasing an initial funding tranche including an initial $3.3B investment for down payments on long-lead equipment and EPC contractor selection; the arrangement is tied to Japan's broader $550B US investment commitment, with initial completion targeted by the end of 2028 and full build-out by 2032. The 21 October 2026 results release says NextEra Energy Resources has now signed definitive agreements for three federal hub projects, two in Texas and one in Pennsylvania, totalling about 16.5 GW, with $5.7B of initial funding secured year to date, and expects to develop, build and operate them for fees without investing capital. On the call management said the early payments are modest in 2026 and 2027, building through 2032, and that operating fees from 2032 to 2052 should be roughly half the earnings per share NextEra would earn if it owned the plants.
sourceNextEra Energy - NextEra Energy, U.S. Department of Commerce…primaryNextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryNextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary
against this
This is an unusual government-to-company funding structure rather than a conventional customer PPA, and NextEra's own equity contribution and the ultimate offtake counterparty for the generated power are not disclosed in the release, so the demand-side economics of the arrangement are less transparent than a signed corporate PPA would be.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21: three federal hubs of about 16.5 GW signed with $5.7B initial funding, built for fees; the earlier claim named up to 10 GW.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: fee economics stated (modest 2026-27 payments; 2032-52 fees about half of ownership earnings).
Where the growth is coming from, business by business
Where the growth is coming from
| Business | Share of revenue | Growth: last quarter | Last half-year | Last year | Share in 3 years at its latest-quarter rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Power & Light Company | 65% | +6.9% | - | - | 65% |
| NEER Segment | 35% | +6.8% | - | - | 35% |
| Whole company | 100% | +6.9% | - | - | 100% |
On the filed split through 2026-03-31, if each business keeps its latest quarter's growth, the company grows about 7% next year and 7% in year 3, against 10.8% over the last twelve months. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.
The results
The numbers
Is it growing?Steady
Sales grew 9.6% over the twelve months to Sep 2026, about the same pace as the 11% in the year to Dec 2025.
Is it profitable?Strong
Operating margin is 30%, down from 36% in the year to Dec 2023.
How steady is it?Swingy
Yearly sales growth has ranged from −12% to +34% over the last 5 years, with sales falling in 2 of them.
Does it earn good returns?Low
Each dollar put into the business earns 5.4% a year after tax, about where it was (3.0%) in the year to Dec 2021.
Is it making cash?Strong
The business brought in $14.8B of cash from operations, 51% of sales, before capital spending, which the filer does not tag.
Is the balance sheet safe?Strained
It owes $100B more than the cash it holds, about 6.8 years of the cash its operations bring in.
Are shares being diluted?Creeping
The share count rose 6.4% in 4.8 years.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-26. Fiscal years end in December.
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | 12 mo to Sep 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $17.1B | $21.0B | $28.1B | $24.8B | $27.4B | $28.8B |
| Sales growth | −5.2% | +23% | +34% | −12% | +11% | +9.6% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Operating margin | 17% | 19% | 36% | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Net margin | 21% | 20% | 26% | 28% | 25% | 40% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Pay in shares | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | - |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | $7.55B | $8.26B | $11.3B | $13.3B | $12.5B | $14.8B |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $639M | $1.60B | $2.69B | $1.49B | $2.81B | $5.58B |
| Debt | $52.7B | $61.9B | $68.3B | $80.4B | $93.1B | $106B |
| Net cash | −$52.1B | −$60.3B | −$65.6B | −$79.0B | −$90.2B | −$100B |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Return on capital | 3.0% | 3.6% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% |
| Shares (diluted) | 1.97B | 1.98B | 2.03B | 2.06B | 2.07B | 2.10B |
What growth costs
A utility grows by building, so the cost of growth is capital, not research or sales staff. NextEra spends roughly as much on new plants and grid each year as it takes in sales, about twice what its operations bring in, and borrows the gap. Interest is the cost climbing fastest; whether growth makes it more profitable cannot be read from swinging revenue.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C44facthigh confidence
Capital spending runs at about 90 cents to a dollar per sales dollar every year: 0.94 in 2021, 0.92 in 2022, 0.89 in 2023, 1.00 in 2024 and 0.90 in 2025. Cash interest paid rose from $2,463M in 2023 to $3,501M in 2025, from about 8.8 to 12.8 cents per sales dollar, while stock pay stays under 1 cent; NEE tags no research and development expense.
sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primaryNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2022primary
against this
Revenue swings with fuel pass-through and NEER's hedge marks (2023 at $28,114M, 2024 at $24,753M), so a per-sales-dollar ratio for a utility moves with fuel prices as much as with spending.
C43facthigh confidence
From 2021 to 2025 NEE spent about $109.8B on capital expenditures, NEER investments and nuclear fuel against $52.9B of operating cash flow; it issued about $8.1B of common stock and equity units (mostly $1.46B in 2022, $4.51B in 2023 and $2.04B in 2025), bought back no stock, paid dividends rising from $3.78B in 2023 to $4.68B in 2025, and noncurrent long-term debt rose from $50,960M to $89,556M; the diluted count rose about 5% to 2,070.6M. It sold Florida City Gas in 2023 for $924M.
sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primaryNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2022primary
against this
NEER's partners also funded growth: proceeds from differential membership investors were $2.7B to $4.2B a year, capital outside the common equity that carries its own claims on the projects (C14).
The last report (24 Jul)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
12%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
12.4%
Growth from the quarter before
against 3.1% the quarter before that
30¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales
The September quarter beat forecasts. Adjusted earnings per share rose 9.7% to $1.24, and the yearly forecast of $3.92 to $4.02 was repeated. Three government-funded gas projects of about 16.5 gigawatts are now signed, paid as fees.
The call brought the bad news. Virginia's governor and the regulator's own staff filed testimony on 19 October saying the Dominion deal should not go ahead as filed; staff suggested limits on Dominion's dividends and an independent board. Management will answer in about two weeks and still expects orders in January 2027.
What it did to the thesisThe profit and gas work supported the steady part of the case. The Virginia testimony is the kind of pressure our next test was written to catch, but the judges have not ruled and may not follow it, so the view stays Neutral and the risk is now louder.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $1.15 against $1.09 expected; $1.50 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C13facthigh confidence
Q3 2026 GAAP net income attributable to NextEra was $4.775B ($2.28/sh) versus $2.438B ($1.18/sh) in Q3 2025; adjusted earnings were $2.592B ($1.24/sh) versus $2.348B ($1.13/sh), a 9.7% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS. In Q2 2026 adjusted earnings were $2.407B ($1.15/sh) versus $2.164B ($1.05/sh), up 9.5% (GAAP $3.144B, $1.50/sh).
sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryNextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 results of 2026-10-21 added to the Q2 figures: adjusted EPS up 9.7%.
C12management claimmedium confidence
NextEra's standalone 2026 guidance is adjusted EPS of $3.92-4.02 (targeting the high end), with a compound annual growth rate in adjusted EPS of 8%+ through 2032 (targeting the same rate 2032-2035), both off a 2025 base of $3.71; the company also expects to grow dividends per share at roughly 10% per year through 2026 (off a 2024 base) and 6% per year from year-end 2026 through 2028. The 21 October 2026 results release repeated all of this unchanged.
sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryNextEra Energy Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025…primaryNextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary
against this
An 8%+ CAGR guided off a fixed 2025 base is a multi-year compounding claim management has strong incentive to keep unchanged through a pending merger vote; it has not yet been tested against a full commodity or rate-case cycle since the guidance was last reaffirmed, and the combined-company 9%+ target depends on the merger itself closing (C06).
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21 repeated the guidance, the high-end target and the growth rates.
C16management claimmedium confidence
NextEra Energy announced it executed definitive agreements with the US Department of Commerce and the Government of Japan to fund the development and operation of up to 10 GW of natural gas-powered generation in Texas and Pennsylvania (including a roughly 4.3 GW project in Pennsylvania), releasing an initial funding tranche including an initial $3.3B investment for down payments on long-lead equipment and EPC contractor selection; the arrangement is tied to Japan's broader $550B US investment commitment, with initial completion targeted by the end of 2028 and full build-out by 2032. The 21 October 2026 results release says NextEra Energy Resources has now signed definitive agreements for three federal hub projects, two in Texas and one in Pennsylvania, totalling about 16.5 GW, with $5.7B of initial funding secured year to date, and expects to develop, build and operate them for fees without investing capital. On the call management said the early payments are modest in 2026 and 2027, building through 2032, and that operating fees from 2032 to 2052 should be roughly half the earnings per share NextEra would earn if it owned the plants.
sourceNextEra Energy - NextEra Energy, U.S. Department of Commerce…primaryNextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryNextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary
against this
This is an unusual government-to-company funding structure rather than a conventional customer PPA, and NextEra's own equity contribution and the ultimate offtake counterparty for the generated power are not disclosed in the release, so the demand-side economics of the arrangement are less transparent than a signed corporate PPA would be.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21: three federal hubs of about 16.5 GW signed with $5.7B initial funding, built for fees; the earlier claim named up to 10 GW.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: fee economics stated (modest 2026-27 payments; 2032-52 fees about half of ownership earnings).
C08factmedium confidence
Closing requires HSR Act clearance and regulatory clearances from FERC, the NRC, the Virginia SCC, the North Carolina Utilities Commission and the South Carolina PSC, each without a 'Burdensome Condition' as defined in the Merger Agreement; the companies filed for state and federal merger approvals on July 15, 2026 (Virginia's filing triggering a 180-day statutory review in SCC case PUR-2026-00112, with an evidentiary hearing set to begin November 17, 2026), and both shareholder approvals were obtained on September 3, 2026: NEE's share-issuance proposal passed with 99.47% of votes cast and Dominion's merger proposal with 671.3M votes for against 8.6M against. Virginia's consumer counsel in the Attorney General's office has asked the SCC to treat the September 14 benefits package as an amended application and restart the 180-day clock, which the SCC had not ruled on as of September 24, 2026; management continues to expect the transaction to close in the second half of 2027. The 21 October 2026 release says procedural schedules are set with hearings in Virginia in November and South Carolina in December and final orders expected in January 2027, the North Carolina Utilities Commission's expert witness hearings begin in February 2027, the federal reviews are underway, and the companies still expect to close in the second half of 2027. Testimony filed in Virginia on 2026-10-19 shows the governor's consultant and the SCC's own staff both saying the merger should not be approved as filed; staff suggested limits on Dominion's dividends and an independent board, and on the 21 October call chief executive John Ketchum said he stands behind the filing, will file rebuttal in about two weeks, and sees room for compromise on specific issues.
sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primaryNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryNextEra Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the 2026 special…primaryDominion Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the special meetingprimaryVirginia State Corporation Commission - Dominion-NextEra…primaryVirginia Scope - AG asks SCC to restart Dominion-NextEra…secondaryNextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryWHRO - Spanberger, SCC staff say no to Dominion/NextEra…secondaryNextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary
against this
- Five separate regulatory clearances is a high bar for a single timeline, and the Virginia review has already drawn unusual process: the SCC added in-person public hearings, and consumer counsel is asking for the clock to restart, which from September 14 would run to about March 2027 rather than January 2027; the Merger Agreement's own outside date (C09) extends to August 2028 specifically to accommodate the Regulatory Clearances not being satisfied on the H2 2027 timeline management states as its base case.
- Virginia's governor and the SCC staff both testified on 2026-10-19 that the deal should not proceed as filed, with the staff citing the risk NextEra's unregulated businesses would put on the Virginia utility and proposing dividend limits and an independent board; this is the kind of testimony the pre-registered test named as pressure, though the three-judge panel need not follow it.
- 2026-09-24editedBoth shareholder votes passed on 2026-09-03 (NEE and Dominion Item 5.07 8-Ks); added the Virginia SCC docket schedule and the consumer counsel's request to restart the review clock.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21 gave the state hearing and order schedule; the Virginia clock ruling is still not reported.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: Virginia governor and staff testimony of 2026-10-19 opposes the deal as filed and proposes dividend limits and an independent board; management will rebut and sees room for compromise.
C15management claimmedium confidence
FPL has approximately 21 GW of large-load interest, of which it is in advanced discussions on 12 GW, a portion of which it believes it could begin serving as soon as 2028; FPL continues to expect to announce at least one large-load transaction under its tariff by the end of the year, but as of the Q2 2026 release no such transaction is signed. On the 21 October 2026 call FPL's chief said the pipeline of over 20 GW of interest remains, that the first couple of gigawatts need only battery storage, and that the company remains confident of announcing a deal before the end of the year; no size was given and none is signed.
sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryNextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary
against this
'Advanced discussions' and 'continues to expect to announce' are management's own characterization of an unsigned pipeline; the same or similar language has now appeared across at least two consecutive quarterly releases without a signed transaction, which is worth watching for whether the pipeline is genuinely close or persistently optimistic.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: year-end announcement expectation restated aloud, still unsigned and unsized.
What management did with the money
It borrowed to build: long-term debt rose to $98.79B in June from $89.56B in December. The Dominion deal is paid in shares, leaving Dominion's owners with 25.5% of the combined company.
Insiders in 2026Q2: 4 purchases and 1 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C35facthigh confidence
NEE's total consolidated long-term debt was $98,790M at 2026-06-30, up from $89,556M at 2025-12-31; total assets were $232,807M, up from $212,721M; NEE reported a redeemable noncontrolling interest of $64M at 2026-06-30 (versus none at 2025-12-31) and noncontrolling interests of $10,969M within equity.
C04facthigh confidence
On May 15/18, 2026, NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy entered a definitive, all-stock Agreement and Plan of Merger: Dominion shareholders receive 0.8138 shares of NextEra common stock plus a pro rata share of $360M cash (taxable) per Dominion share, resulting in NextEra and Dominion shareholders owning approximately 74.5% and 25.5% of the combined company; the combined company operates under the NextEra Energy name and NYSE ticker NEE, with dual headquarters in Juno Beach, FL and Richmond, VA and an operational headquarters in Cayce, SC.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Full. NextEra is the best-run utility in its group and already costs more than its rivals. That works only if its growth holds and its planned Dominion deal clears all five regulators; neither is certain.
Share price
$76.08
close,
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
16.8
rivals' middle 11.6
The deal's timetable is where the news is. Both shareholder votes passed on 3 September. Then the companies enlarged their offer to Virginia customers, and Virginia's consumer counsel asked the regulator to restart its 180-day review.
The hearing begins on 17 November. The companies still expect to close in the second half of 2027, and a restart would put Virginia's order around March 2027, inside that timetable.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C08factmedium confidence
Closing requires HSR Act clearance and regulatory clearances from FERC, the NRC, the Virginia SCC, the North Carolina Utilities Commission and the South Carolina PSC, each without a 'Burdensome Condition' as defined in the Merger Agreement; the companies filed for state and federal merger approvals on July 15, 2026 (Virginia's filing triggering a 180-day statutory review in SCC case PUR-2026-00112, with an evidentiary hearing set to begin November 17, 2026), and both shareholder approvals were obtained on September 3, 2026: NEE's share-issuance proposal passed with 99.47% of votes cast and Dominion's merger proposal with 671.3M votes for against 8.6M against. Virginia's consumer counsel in the Attorney General's office has asked the SCC to treat the September 14 benefits package as an amended application and restart the 180-day clock, which the SCC had not ruled on as of September 24, 2026; management continues to expect the transaction to close in the second half of 2027. The 21 October 2026 release says procedural schedules are set with hearings in Virginia in November and South Carolina in December and final orders expected in January 2027, the North Carolina Utilities Commission's expert witness hearings begin in February 2027, the federal reviews are underway, and the companies still expect to close in the second half of 2027. Testimony filed in Virginia on 2026-10-19 shows the governor's consultant and the SCC's own staff both saying the merger should not be approved as filed; staff suggested limits on Dominion's dividends and an independent board, and on the 21 October call chief executive John Ketchum said he stands behind the filing, will file rebuttal in about two weeks, and sees room for compromise on specific issues.
sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primaryNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryNextEra Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the 2026 special…primaryDominion Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the special meetingprimaryVirginia State Corporation Commission - Dominion-NextEra…primaryVirginia Scope - AG asks SCC to restart Dominion-NextEra…secondaryNextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryWHRO - Spanberger, SCC staff say no to Dominion/NextEra…secondaryNextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary
against this
- Five separate regulatory clearances is a high bar for a single timeline, and the Virginia review has already drawn unusual process: the SCC added in-person public hearings, and consumer counsel is asking for the clock to restart, which from September 14 would run to about March 2027 rather than January 2027; the Merger Agreement's own outside date (C09) extends to August 2028 specifically to accommodate the Regulatory Clearances not being satisfied on the H2 2027 timeline management states as its base case.
- Virginia's governor and the SCC staff both testified on 2026-10-19 that the deal should not proceed as filed, with the staff citing the risk NextEra's unregulated businesses would put on the Virginia utility and proposing dividend limits and an independent board; this is the kind of testimony the pre-registered test named as pressure, though the three-judge panel need not follow it.
- 2026-09-24editedBoth shareholder votes passed on 2026-09-03 (NEE and Dominion Item 5.07 8-Ks); added the Virginia SCC docket schedule and the consumer counsel's request to restart the review clock.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21 gave the state hearing and order schedule; the Virginia clock ruling is still not reported.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: Virginia governor and staff testimony of 2026-10-19 opposes the deal as filed and proposes dividend limits and an independent board; management will rebut and sees room for compromise.
C07management claimhigh confidence
The combined company proposed $2.25B in total bill credits for Dominion Energy's customers in Virginia (~79%, stated as $1.78B over two years), South Carolina (~17%) and North Carolina (~3%), paid over 24 months post-close; on September 14, 2026 the companies proposed extending Virginia's $10-a-month residential credit from two years to four by increasing the aggregate shareholder-funded Virginia credit (new total not disclosed) and asking the Virginia SCC to redirect data centers' share to residential customers, and added a $100M increase to the EnergyShare bill-assistance program through 2038, a $100M workforce fund, an up-to-$1B-a-year, five-year Virginia supplier spending program and a shareholder-funded co-headquarters tower in Richmond.
sourceNextEra Energy and Dominion Energy to Combine (8-K…primaryNextEra Energy 8-K, Item 7.01: joint release and stakeholder…primaryDominion Energy 8-K, Item 7.01: joint investor presentation…primary
against this
- The $2.25B bill-credit commitment is contingent on the deal closing, so it functions partly as a deal-marketing tool aimed at regulators and Dominion's own customer base rather than a benefit customers can rely on unless every approval is obtained; opponents (C10) argue the deal's scale costs customers more than the credits offset over time.
- The September 14 enlargement was made 'in direct response to feedback from policymakers and other stakeholders' and its added cost to shareholders is not disclosed; Virginia's consumer counsel in the Attorney General's office has argued it puts 'a different deal on the table' and asked the SCC to restart its review clock (C08), so the concessions are still moving and their total is not yet a known number.
- 2026-09-24edited2026-09-14 8-K (Ex-99.1, Ex-99.2) and Dominion's Ex-99.2 of the same day: the Virginia residential credit was extended from two to four years with an undisclosed larger aggregate, and new shareholder-funded commitments were added.
How we read the multiple
Counting its debt, NextEra sells for about 17 times its yearly cash profit, the usual way utilities are compared. The middle of its rivals, Duke and American Electric Power, is about 12.
On share price against profit it is the cheapest of the four, Dominion included, level with Duke, and it earns the best returns in the group. The price assumes NextEra keeps that edge whatever happens to the deal.
Against its own history. Cheaper than its own normal on every measure. The extra buyers pay is over its rivals, not over its own past.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C20facthigh confidence
On the filed-competitor cohort (D, DUK, AEP), NEE's TTM EV/EBITDA is 16.8x against 11.4x for Duke and 11.7x for AEP, the richest of the three with a usable figure; EV/EBIT is 31.1x against a median of 18.9x; EV/Sales is 9.2x against 5.4x; price-to-sales is 5.5x against 2.9x; price-to-book is 2.8x against 1.8x - NEE trades at the richest multiple in its cohort on every enterprise-value, sales and book measure.
sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primaryPortfolio-management research pack (vendor_fundamentals…secondary
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the refreshed pack at the 25 September 2026 close, after a 9.0% fall in the share price: EV/EBITDA 16.8x (was 17.8x) against a two-peer median of 11.55x (was 11.9x of three), because the pack now withholds Dominion from the profit-line measures; EV/EBIT 31.1x from 32.9x; EV/Sales 9.2x from 9.7x; P/S 5.5x from 6.0x; P/B 2.8x from 3.1x. Still the richest on each.
C21factmedium confidence
NEE's TTM P/E is 17.0x, below the three-peer cohort median of 20.3x and the lowest of the four, level with Duke's 17.0x - the opposite direction from its EV/EBITDA reading - while NEE's TTM ROE (16.8%), gross margin (71.8%) and operating margin (29.5%) are each the highest in the cohort.
sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primaryPortfolio-management research pack (vendor_fundamentals…secondary
against this
A below-peer P/E alongside an above-peer EV/EBITDA on the same company is unusual and worth treating as a definitional question rather than picking whichever reads more favorably: NEE's superior ROE and margins are real and help justify some premium, but the P/E figure is also flattered this year by the same GAAP items (C14) that adjusted earnings exclude, which a TTM P/E does not adjust for.
- 2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the refreshed pack at the 25 September 2026 close: P/E 17.0x (was 18.7x) against a median of 20.3x (was 20.8x), now cheapest of four level with Duke rather than second; ROE, gross margin and operating margin unchanged and still the highest, operating margin now against the two peers the pack keeps on that measure.
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of cash profit, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | company value for each $1 of cash profit |
|---|---|---|
| DUK | Duke Energy | 11.4× |
| AEP | American Electric Power Company | 11.7× |
| NEE | NextEra Energy | 16.8× |
| D | Dominion Energy held out | not priced |
The middle of the other 2 is 11.6. NextEra Energy, Inc. is dearest of 3.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
The dearest on company value against cash profit, and the gap is NextEra's own: its rivals sit close together.
Where we disagree with the market
The market believes
The Dominion deal is a clean win that lifts earnings: 24 analysts say buy against one sell.
We believe
Five governors and two senators oppose it, and NextEra itself priced the risk into a $4.83B fee if regulators kill it.
The opposition sits in state-government statements and Senate letters, not in analysts' notes: five New England governors oppose the deal, and two senators have asked the federal regulator to reject it. NextEra's own shares fell about 5% when it was announced.
We would be wrong if every clearance lands without a costly condition by early 2027.
What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
64%
of 22, 1 Sep
Four months earlier
67%
of 24, 1 May
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C23factmedium confidence
Sell-side consensus is 24 buy, 11 hold, 1 sell ratings (Buy).
- 2026-09-26editedRe-read in the refreshed pack: 24 buy, 11 hold, 1 sell, unchanged since the first pack.
C10factmedium confidence
Five New England governors, including Maine's Janet Mills, issued a joint statement opposing the merger, with Mills stating NextEra's proposal 'would concentrate too many energy generation and transmission assets in a company that has worked aggressively to suppress competition in Maine'; US Senators Ed Markey and Angus King separately urged FERC to reject the deal on antitrust and affordability grounds; a New Hampshire consumer advocate described himself as 'extremely skeptical.'
sourceOffice of Governor Janet Mills - statement on proposed…primaryUtility Dive - Senator King urges FERC to reject…secondary
against this
The opposition is concentrated among New England officials whose states are not directly served by either company; the actual approval decisions rest with FERC, the NRC and the Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina commissions, none of which has yet ruled, so vocal opposition from outside the transaction's own footprint does not by itself predict the outcome.
C09facthigh confidence
The Merger Agreement's termination rights include an outside date of November 15, 2027, extendable to August 15, 2028 if Regulatory Clearances, the absence of a Burdensome Condition, or the absence of certain governmental orders are not yet satisfied; termination fees are $2.24B payable by Dominion to NextEra in Dominion-side break scenarios, $6.52B payable by NextEra to Dominion in NextEra-side break scenarios (including a superior-proposal termination), and specifically $4.83B payable by NextEra to Dominion where termination results from a failure of regulatory-related closing conditions.
C11factmedium confidence
On the merger announcement (2026-05-18), Dominion Energy's stock rose approximately 9-14% (sources vary) while NextEra Energy's stock fell approximately 5%.
against this
A same-day acquirer stock decline is a common, unremarkable market reaction to an all-stock deal (dilution and integration-risk pricing) and is not on its own evidence the deal is value-destructive; but it is the market's own real-time verdict, not management's framing, so it is kept rather than absorbed into the bullish case.
C08factmedium confidence
Closing requires HSR Act clearance and regulatory clearances from FERC, the NRC, the Virginia SCC, the North Carolina Utilities Commission and the South Carolina PSC, each without a 'Burdensome Condition' as defined in the Merger Agreement; the companies filed for state and federal merger approvals on July 15, 2026 (Virginia's filing triggering a 180-day statutory review in SCC case PUR-2026-00112, with an evidentiary hearing set to begin November 17, 2026), and both shareholder approvals were obtained on September 3, 2026: NEE's share-issuance proposal passed with 99.47% of votes cast and Dominion's merger proposal with 671.3M votes for against 8.6M against. Virginia's consumer counsel in the Attorney General's office has asked the SCC to treat the September 14 benefits package as an amended application and restart the 180-day clock, which the SCC had not ruled on as of September 24, 2026; management continues to expect the transaction to close in the second half of 2027. The 21 October 2026 release says procedural schedules are set with hearings in Virginia in November and South Carolina in December and final orders expected in January 2027, the North Carolina Utilities Commission's expert witness hearings begin in February 2027, the federal reviews are underway, and the companies still expect to close in the second half of 2027. Testimony filed in Virginia on 2026-10-19 shows the governor's consultant and the SCC's own staff both saying the merger should not be approved as filed; staff suggested limits on Dominion's dividends and an independent board, and on the 21 October call chief executive John Ketchum said he stands behind the filing, will file rebuttal in about two weeks, and sees room for compromise on specific issues.
sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primaryNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryNextEra Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the 2026 special…primaryDominion Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the special meetingprimaryVirginia State Corporation Commission - Dominion-NextEra…primaryVirginia Scope - AG asks SCC to restart Dominion-NextEra…secondaryNextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryWHRO - Spanberger, SCC staff say no to Dominion/NextEra…secondaryNextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary
against this
- Five separate regulatory clearances is a high bar for a single timeline, and the Virginia review has already drawn unusual process: the SCC added in-person public hearings, and consumer counsel is asking for the clock to restart, which from September 14 would run to about March 2027 rather than January 2027; the Merger Agreement's own outside date (C09) extends to August 2028 specifically to accommodate the Regulatory Clearances not being satisfied on the H2 2027 timeline management states as its base case.
- Virginia's governor and the SCC staff both testified on 2026-10-19 that the deal should not proceed as filed, with the staff citing the risk NextEra's unregulated businesses would put on the Virginia utility and proposing dividend limits and an independent board; this is the kind of testimony the pre-registered test named as pressure, though the three-judge panel need not follow it.
- 2026-09-24editedBoth shareholder votes passed on 2026-09-03 (NEE and Dominion Item 5.07 8-Ks); added the Virginia SCC docket schedule and the consumer counsel's request to restart the review clock.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21 gave the state hearing and order schedule; the Virginia clock ruling is still not reported.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: Virginia governor and staff testimony of 2026-10-19 opposes the deal as filed and proposes dividend limits and an independent board; management will rebut and sees room for compromise.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- A regulator's price. Any of five regulators could attach a condition costly enough to let either side walk away.
- A $4.83B bill. If regulators block the deal, NextEra pays Dominion $4.83B.
- Power without the grid. Data-centre builders making their own power could skip the contracts the developer is counting on.
- No big user signed yet. Florida has 21 gigawatts of large-user interest and not one signed deal.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C08factmedium confidence
Closing requires HSR Act clearance and regulatory clearances from FERC, the NRC, the Virginia SCC, the North Carolina Utilities Commission and the South Carolina PSC, each without a 'Burdensome Condition' as defined in the Merger Agreement; the companies filed for state and federal merger approvals on July 15, 2026 (Virginia's filing triggering a 180-day statutory review in SCC case PUR-2026-00112, with an evidentiary hearing set to begin November 17, 2026), and both shareholder approvals were obtained on September 3, 2026: NEE's share-issuance proposal passed with 99.47% of votes cast and Dominion's merger proposal with 671.3M votes for against 8.6M against. Virginia's consumer counsel in the Attorney General's office has asked the SCC to treat the September 14 benefits package as an amended application and restart the 180-day clock, which the SCC had not ruled on as of September 24, 2026; management continues to expect the transaction to close in the second half of 2027. The 21 October 2026 release says procedural schedules are set with hearings in Virginia in November and South Carolina in December and final orders expected in January 2027, the North Carolina Utilities Commission's expert witness hearings begin in February 2027, the federal reviews are underway, and the companies still expect to close in the second half of 2027. Testimony filed in Virginia on 2026-10-19 shows the governor's consultant and the SCC's own staff both saying the merger should not be approved as filed; staff suggested limits on Dominion's dividends and an independent board, and on the 21 October call chief executive John Ketchum said he stands behind the filing, will file rebuttal in about two weeks, and sees room for compromise on specific issues.
sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primaryNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryNextEra Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the 2026 special…primaryDominion Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the special meetingprimaryVirginia State Corporation Commission - Dominion-NextEra…primaryVirginia Scope - AG asks SCC to restart Dominion-NextEra…secondaryNextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryWHRO - Spanberger, SCC staff say no to Dominion/NextEra…secondaryNextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary
against this
- Five separate regulatory clearances is a high bar for a single timeline, and the Virginia review has already drawn unusual process: the SCC added in-person public hearings, and consumer counsel is asking for the clock to restart, which from September 14 would run to about March 2027 rather than January 2027; the Merger Agreement's own outside date (C09) extends to August 2028 specifically to accommodate the Regulatory Clearances not being satisfied on the H2 2027 timeline management states as its base case.
- Virginia's governor and the SCC staff both testified on 2026-10-19 that the deal should not proceed as filed, with the staff citing the risk NextEra's unregulated businesses would put on the Virginia utility and proposing dividend limits and an independent board; this is the kind of testimony the pre-registered test named as pressure, though the three-judge panel need not follow it.
- 2026-09-24editedBoth shareholder votes passed on 2026-09-03 (NEE and Dominion Item 5.07 8-Ks); added the Virginia SCC docket schedule and the consumer counsel's request to restart the review clock.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21 gave the state hearing and order schedule; the Virginia clock ruling is still not reported.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: Virginia governor and staff testimony of 2026-10-19 opposes the deal as filed and proposes dividend limits and an independent board; management will rebut and sees room for compromise.
C09facthigh confidence
The Merger Agreement's termination rights include an outside date of November 15, 2027, extendable to August 15, 2028 if Regulatory Clearances, the absence of a Burdensome Condition, or the absence of certain governmental orders are not yet satisfied; termination fees are $2.24B payable by Dominion to NextEra in Dominion-side break scenarios, $6.52B payable by NextEra to Dominion in NextEra-side break scenarios (including a superior-proposal termination), and specifically $4.83B payable by NextEra to Dominion where termination results from a failure of regulatory-related closing conditions.
C25factmedium confidence
Behind-the-meter, off-grid data-center power is scaling nationally: nearly every hyperscaler is now pursuing behind-the-meter projects, and OpenAI and Anthropic alone have signed leases for more than 10 GW of behind-the-meter power.
against this
Behind-the-meter capacity cannot substitute for FPL's regulated grid connection at all, and most of NEER's own book is already signed under long-term PPAs rather than exposed the way an uncontracted merchant generator's future pipeline is, so this threat bears more on NEER's future contracting pace than on NEE's existing earnings base.
C15management claimmedium confidence
FPL has approximately 21 GW of large-load interest, of which it is in advanced discussions on 12 GW, a portion of which it believes it could begin serving as soon as 2028; FPL continues to expect to announce at least one large-load transaction under its tariff by the end of the year, but as of the Q2 2026 release no such transaction is signed. On the 21 October 2026 call FPL's chief said the pipeline of over 20 GW of interest remains, that the first couple of gigawatts need only battery storage, and that the company remains confident of announcing a deal before the end of the year; no size was given and none is signed.
sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryNextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary
against this
'Advanced discussions' and 'continues to expect to announce' are management's own characterization of an unsigned pipeline; the same or similar language has now appeared across at least two consecutive quarterly releases without a signed transaction, which is worth watching for whether the pipeline is genuinely close or persistently optimistic.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: year-end announcement expectation restated aloud, still unsigned and unsized.
What we still do not know
- Whether Virginia restarts its review, and whether its staff propose conditions beyond the companies' own offer.
- How large the enlarged Virginia customer credit is. The companies have not said.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C08factmedium confidence
Closing requires HSR Act clearance and regulatory clearances from FERC, the NRC, the Virginia SCC, the North Carolina Utilities Commission and the South Carolina PSC, each without a 'Burdensome Condition' as defined in the Merger Agreement; the companies filed for state and federal merger approvals on July 15, 2026 (Virginia's filing triggering a 180-day statutory review in SCC case PUR-2026-00112, with an evidentiary hearing set to begin November 17, 2026), and both shareholder approvals were obtained on September 3, 2026: NEE's share-issuance proposal passed with 99.47% of votes cast and Dominion's merger proposal with 671.3M votes for against 8.6M against. Virginia's consumer counsel in the Attorney General's office has asked the SCC to treat the September 14 benefits package as an amended application and restart the 180-day clock, which the SCC had not ruled on as of September 24, 2026; management continues to expect the transaction to close in the second half of 2027. The 21 October 2026 release says procedural schedules are set with hearings in Virginia in November and South Carolina in December and final orders expected in January 2027, the North Carolina Utilities Commission's expert witness hearings begin in February 2027, the federal reviews are underway, and the companies still expect to close in the second half of 2027. Testimony filed in Virginia on 2026-10-19 shows the governor's consultant and the SCC's own staff both saying the merger should not be approved as filed; staff suggested limits on Dominion's dividends and an independent board, and on the 21 October call chief executive John Ketchum said he stands behind the filing, will file rebuttal in about two weeks, and sees room for compromise on specific issues.
sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primaryNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryNextEra Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the 2026 special…primaryDominion Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the special meetingprimaryVirginia State Corporation Commission - Dominion-NextEra…primaryVirginia Scope - AG asks SCC to restart Dominion-NextEra…secondaryNextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primaryWHRO - Spanberger, SCC staff say no to Dominion/NextEra…secondaryNextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary
against this
- Five separate regulatory clearances is a high bar for a single timeline, and the Virginia review has already drawn unusual process: the SCC added in-person public hearings, and consumer counsel is asking for the clock to restart, which from September 14 would run to about March 2027 rather than January 2027; the Merger Agreement's own outside date (C09) extends to August 2028 specifically to accommodate the Regulatory Clearances not being satisfied on the H2 2027 timeline management states as its base case.
- Virginia's governor and the SCC staff both testified on 2026-10-19 that the deal should not proceed as filed, with the staff citing the risk NextEra's unregulated businesses would put on the Virginia utility and proposing dividend limits and an independent board; this is the kind of testimony the pre-registered test named as pressure, though the three-judge panel need not follow it.
- 2026-09-24editedBoth shareholder votes passed on 2026-09-03 (NEE and Dominion Item 5.07 8-Ks); added the Virginia SCC docket schedule and the consumer counsel's request to restart the review clock.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21 gave the state hearing and order schedule; the Virginia clock ruling is still not reported.
- 2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: Virginia governor and staff testimony of 2026-10-19 opposes the deal as filed and proposes dividend limits and an independent board; management will rebut and sees room for compromise.
C07management claimhigh confidence
The combined company proposed $2.25B in total bill credits for Dominion Energy's customers in Virginia (~79%, stated as $1.78B over two years), South Carolina (~17%) and North Carolina (~3%), paid over 24 months post-close; on September 14, 2026 the companies proposed extending Virginia's $10-a-month residential credit from two years to four by increasing the aggregate shareholder-funded Virginia credit (new total not disclosed) and asking the Virginia SCC to redirect data centers' share to residential customers, and added a $100M increase to the EnergyShare bill-assistance program through 2038, a $100M workforce fund, an up-to-$1B-a-year, five-year Virginia supplier spending program and a shareholder-funded co-headquarters tower in Richmond.
sourceNextEra Energy and Dominion Energy to Combine (8-K…primaryNextEra Energy 8-K, Item 7.01: joint release and stakeholder…primaryDominion Energy 8-K, Item 7.01: joint investor presentation…primary
against this
- The $2.25B bill-credit commitment is contingent on the deal closing, so it functions partly as a deal-marketing tool aimed at regulators and Dominion's own customer base rather than a benefit customers can rely on unless every approval is obtained; opponents (C10) argue the deal's scale costs customers more than the credits offset over time.
- The September 14 enlargement was made 'in direct response to feedback from policymakers and other stakeholders' and its added cost to shareholders is not disclosed; Virginia's consumer counsel in the Attorney General's office has argued it puts 'a different deal on the table' and asked the SCC to restart its review clock (C08), so the concessions are still moving and their total is not yet a known number.
- 2026-09-24edited2026-09-14 8-K (Ex-99.1, Ex-99.2) and Dominion's Ex-99.2 of the same day: the Virginia residential credit was extended from two to four years with an undisclosed larger aggregate, and new shareholder-funded commitments were added.
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveThe deal closes cleanly and the growth holds
It needs all of:
- ○Every regulator clears the deal without a costly condition attached.watched as it happens
- ○Adjusted earnings keep growing at 8% a year or more, and Florida signs its first large-user deal.checked at the next results, due by 17 Nov
- Neutral→UnattractiveA regulator or the growth turns
It needs any of:
- ○A regulator attaches a costly condition or refuses, or the deal collapses and NextEra pays the $4.83B fee.watched as it happens
- ○The price gap over rival utilities widens further without faster growth to match.checked at the next results, due by 17 Nov
We would also be wrong if
- Adjusted earnings growth falls below 8% a year for two years running.
- Florida's large-user interest produces no signed deal within twelve months.
What is coming
- 27 October 2026 Q3 2026 results: Adjusted EPS against the high end of $3.92-4.02, NEER backlog additions, and whether FPL's first large-load deal is signed as promised by year end.
Every dated event ahead
- 27 October 2026 Q3 2026 results: Adjusted EPS against the high end of $3.92-4.02, NEER backlog additions, and whether FPL's first large-load deal is signed as promised by year end.
- 17 November 2026 Virginia SCC evidentiary hearing on the Dominion merger: Whether the review clock holds for a second-half-2027 close and whether staff testimony proposes conditions beyond the companies' own package.
- December 2026 FPL's first large-load transaction under its tariff: Whether the 21 GW of large-load interest turns into a signed customer, the step potential is scored against.
- 15 November 2027 Merger outside date: Whether all five regulators have cleared the deal without a Burdensome Condition, or the date extends to August 2028 with the $4.83B regulatory break fee at stake.
Since we wrote this
Written
24 Aug
Price the thesis read
$76.08
25 Sep
- 21 OctEarningsProfit beat held; Virginia staff and governor oppose the deal as filedAdjusted profit rose 9.7% and guidance held, but testimony filed in Virginia on 19 October opposes the Dominion deal as filed. Neutral already carried that risk, so the view held.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictThe owner asked to pilot the long case on five theses without a bet before deciding on the rest.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
- 1 OctNewsNextEra to build 6.47 GW of gas power in Texas under a US-Korea investment. View heldNextEra and Related named to develop Project Star, a 6.47 GW gas-fired energy campus in Texas backed by Korea and the US.
- 26 SepThesis reviewShares fell 9%; premium over rival utilities narrower. View heldAt $76.08 NextEra still costs more than Duke and AEP against cash profit, but less against earnings. Insiders' fifteen sales this year were all pre-scheduled, and no regulator has ruled on the Dominion deal.
- 24 SepNewsShareholders approved the Dominion deal. View heldBoth votes passed by wide margins, but the companies had to enlarge Virginia's offer and consumer counsel wants the review clock restarted. No regulator has proposed a condition, and a 2027 close still holds.
- 24 AugThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten three months after NextEra agreed to buy Dominion, with five regulators and organised political opposition between the deal and its 2027 close.
Sources 30
Where this came from
Sources - 30
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-02-13business description, FPL/NEER structure, competition language, nuclear PTC, filed operating incomebacksC04C08C09C19C20C21C26C31C33C36C39C40C43C44
- S02primarycompany filing2026-05-18merger terms, combined-company scale and financial targets, bill credits, credit-rating benefits, capex/build-scale comparisons, peak-load forecastsbacksC04C05C06C07C27C28C29C30C32C33
- S03primarycompany filing2026-07-24Q2/standalone results by segment, standalone guidance, merger regulatory-filing status and timeline, FPL large-load pipeline, NEER backlog, Duane Arnold statusbacksC01C02C03C06C08C12C13C14C15C18
- S04primarycompany filing2026-07-24consolidated income statement, noncontrolling-interest allocation, balance sheet, debt schedule as of 2026-06-30backsC14C35
- S05secondaryvendor data2026-09-26Portfolio-management research pack (vendor_fundamentals tier: filed-vs-vendor cross-check)content/NEE/research-pack.jsonthe filed-versus-vendor valuation_cross_check (annual revenue and operating income gaps against SEC XBRL)backsC19
- S06secondaryvendor data2026-09-26Portfolio-management research pack (vendor_fundamentals tier: peer_valuation cohort)content/NEE/research-pack.jsonthe filed-competitor cohort valuation multiples (D, DUK, AEP)backsC20C21
- S07secondaryvendor data2026-09-26Portfolio-management research pack (market tier: price, insiders, analysts, technicals)content/NEE/research-pack.jsonprice/technicals snapshot, insider Form 4 aggregation, analyst consensus, market capitalisation and enterprise valuebacksC22C23C24
- S08secondaryvendor data2026-09-26Portfolio-management research pack (segments block)content/NEE/research-pack.jsonconfirmation that no XBRL segment concept is available for NEEbacksC36
- S09primarycompany filing2026-01-27the original 2026 guidance issuance and FY2025 full-year results, cross-checked against the 2025 base figures used throughout this thesisbacksC12
- S13secondaryindustry data2026independent tracking of behind-the-meter/off-grid data-center generation, the substitute channel for NEER's contracted PPA model
Nearly every hyperscaler is pursuing behind-the-meter power projects-either directly or through partners.
backsC25 - S15primarynews2026-08-19direct, primary-source quote of the Maine governor's opposition and its rationale (tied to NextEra's history opposing the NECEC transmission line)
NextEra's proposal to acquire Dominion Energy would concentrate too many energy generation and transmission assets in a company that has worked aggressively to suppress competition in Maine and block state priorities that would reduce energy costs.
backsC10 - S16secondarynews2026-08-10independent confirmation of Senate opposition to the merger on antitrust/affordability grounds, corroborating the five-governor joint statementbacksC10
- S17secondarynews2026-05-18independent report of the announcement-day stock reaction (Dominion up, NextEra down)backsC11
- S18primarynews2026-08-12the signed government-backed gas-generation agreement, the only large committed demand item beyond NEER's existing backlog
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NEE) today announced it has executed definitive agreements with the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Government of Japan to fund the development and operation of up to 10 gigawatts of natural gas-powered generation in Texas and Pennsylvania.
backsC16 - S19primarynews2026-07-29the not-yet-binding Brookfield/Kentucky data-center campus announcement and NextEra's specific generation role in it
Brookfield to lease land and develop and operate the data center campus at the Paducah Site. DOE also selected NextEra Energy to build and own the dedicated generation resources to power the campus, including up to 2 GW of natural gas and up to 2.6 GW of battery energy storage systems.
backsC17 - S20secondaryindustry data2026-07-23US Energy Information Administration - Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A (Average Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by State) US Energy Information Administrationindependent, federal-government confirmation that Florida's electricity prices run meaningfully below the national average, external evidence for FPL's low-cost regulated-monopoly positioning
Florida: 15.17 cents per kilowatthour (residential, May 2026); U.S. Total: 18.44 cents per kilowatthour.
backsC38 - S21primarycompany filing2026-09-03NEE shareholder approval of the share issuance (99.47% of votes cast) and the authorised-share increasebacksC08
- S22primarycompany filing2026-09-03Dominion Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the special meeting Dominion Energy, Inc.Dominion shareholder approval of the merger proposal, as certified by the independent inspector of electionsbacksC08
- S23primarycompany filing2026-09-14the four-year Virginia residential credit, EnergyShare increase, workforce fund, supplier program and Richmond co-headquarters commitments; close still expected H2 2027backsC07
- S24primarycompany filing2026-09-14Dominion Energy 8-K, Item 7.01: joint investor presentation on the Virginia package (Ex-99.2) Dominion Energy, Inc.the existing commitment of $1.78B in Virginia bill credits over two years set beside the expanded commitmentsbacksC07
- S25primarynews2026-09-08the DOE loan closing for the Duane Arnold restart and the unchanged no-later-than-Q1-2029 target
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NEE) today announced that it and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), through its Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF), have reached a combined conditional commitment and financial close on a loan of up to $1.9 billion to support the restart of the company's Duane Arnold Energy Center in Iowa.
backsC18 - S26primaryregulator2026-09-24Virginia State Corporation Commission - Dominion-NextEra Merger case information (PUR-2026-00112) Virginia State Corporation Commissionthe regulator's own procedural schedule for the Virginia review
Sept. 22: Oral argument on motion to compel ... Oct. 7: Local hearing in Newport News ... Oct. 9: Local hearing in Fairfax County ... Nov. 17: Evidentiary hearing begins
backsC08 - S27secondarynews2026-09-21the consumer counsel's request that the September 14 testimony be treated as an amended application restarting the 180-day clock, the companies' response that it is limited supplemental testimony, and that the SCC had not ruled
The Joint Petitioners have put a different deal on the table.
backsC08 - S28primarycompany filing2026-09-26fifteen open-market sales of 277,753 shares and no purchases between October 2025 and March 2026, every one marked as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan the largest of them paired with a same-day option exercisebacksC24
- S29primarycompany filing2026-04-01beneficial ownership as of March 23, 2026, the 5% holders, the CEO's tenure, the annual incentive and performance share award metrics, the 2025 payouts and the 2025 equity mix, and the 2026 changes to goal rigorbacksC40C41C42
- S30primarycompany filing2023-02-17the 2020 to 2022 cash flow statements: capital expenditures of FPL, NEER investments, nuclear fuel, equity issuancebacksC43C44
- S31secondaryvendor data2026-10-04Earnings calendar saved by the daily routine (FMP earnings rows), content/calendar/2026-10-04.jsoncontent/calendar/2026-10-04.jsonthe expected Q3 2026 report date, 2026-10-27backsC45
- S32primarycompany filing2026-10-21Q3 results by segment, unchanged guidance, merger state-review schedule, federal gas hubs signed, NEER backlog, Duane Arnold statusbacksC08C12C13C16
- S33secondarynews2026-10-19the Virginia staff's and the governor's testimony of 2026-10-19: neither backs the merger as filed; staff suggested limits on Dominion's dividends and an independent board
the SCC’s own investigatory staff also said the deal should not go forward “because the proposed merger would expose [Dominion Energy Virginia] to the additional financial and business risks of NextEra’s unregulated, competitive businesses.”
backsC08 - S34primarytranscript2026-10-21management's answers on the Virginia testimony, the data-centre pipeline, federal-hub economics, equity needs and capital recycling; eight analysts' questions
we remain confident with announcing a deal before the end of the year.
backsC08C15C16