NextEra Energy (NEE)

השורה התחתונה

הציון שלנו ל-NextEra: ניטרלית. היא הבעלים של חברת החשמל המרכזית בפלורידה, שאין לה מתחרים באזור שלה, ושל המפתחת הגדולה באמריקה של חוות רוח ושמש, סוללות ותחנות גז. זה עסק חזק, שמניב את התשואות הטובות ביותר בקרב חברות ההשוואה. אבל המניה כבר יקרה יותר ממניות חברות החשמל המתחרות, והמחיר מניח שהיתרון הזה יישמר גם בזמן שרכישת Dominion Energy עוברת חמישה רגולטורים. לכן היא מתומחרת במלואה ולא זולה. ההערכה תלויה בעסקה הזאת: אישור בלי תנאים כבדים יתמוך בה, ואילו סירוב יחייב את החברה לשלם קנס גדול. לדעתנו ההתנגדות של מושלים וסנאטורים היא סיכון אמיתי, והמחיר מתעלם ממנו.

הטיעון לטווח הארוךאמריקה זקוקה ליותר חשמל מאשר בעשורים האחרונים, בגלל מרכזי נתונים ומפעלים חדשים; NextEra בונה ומחזיקה בתחנות, ועל הרגולטורים להתיר לה לגבות תשלום עליהן.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 8 טענות

C01עובדהhigh confidence

NextEra Energy is the largest electric power and energy infrastructure company in North America, owning Florida Power & Light (FPL), which serves about 12 million people across Florida, and NextEra Energy Resources (NEER), described as the largest energy-infrastructure developer in the US, spanning natural gas, nuclear, renewable energy and battery storage.

sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary

current state · 2026-07-24written 2026-08-24

C32טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Combined FPL, Dominion Energy Virginia/North Carolina and Dominion Energy South Carolina peak load is projected to rise from about 59 GW in 2026 to about 81 GW by 2032; FPL's own internal forecast includes about 8 GW of large load through 2032.

sourceNextEra Energy and Dominion Energy to Combine (8-K…primary

against this

This is a company-prepared forecast blending FPL's internal projections with PJM's own DOM-zone summer-peak forecast and Dominion Energy South Carolina's 2026 IRP winter-peak forecast, which use different methodologies stitched together rather than one consistent modeling approach across all four states.

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

C05טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

The pro forma combined company is projected to have approximately 10 million utility customer accounts across Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina, about 110 GW of generation, an approximately $138B regulated rate base, roughly $249B market capitalization and $420B enterprise value as of the announcement date, an A-/Baa1/A- credit rating, and 90-95% of its business regulated or long-term contracted (up from about 90% for NextEra standalone); it would rank first in nearly every category measured (total generation, renewables generation, nuclear generation, battery storage, annual capex, rate base, market cap) and would be the third-largest US energy company by enterprise value.

sourceNextEra Energy and Dominion Energy to Combine (8-K…primary

against this

These are pro forma, management-prepared figures as of the May 2026 announcement date that will move with both companies' stock prices and have not been independently audited or confirmed by a regulator; the deal has not closed and the figures assume it closes on the stated terms.

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

C20עובדהhigh confidence

On the filed-competitor cohort (D, DUK, AEP), NEE's TTM EV/EBITDA is 16.8x against 11.4x for Duke and 11.7x for AEP, the richest of the three with a usable figure; EV/EBIT is 31.1x against a median of 18.9x; EV/Sales is 9.2x against 5.4x; price-to-sales is 5.5x against 2.9x; price-to-book is 2.8x against 1.8x - NEE trades at the richest multiple in its cohort on every enterprise-value, sales and book measure.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary Portfolio-management research pack (vendor_fundamentals…secondary

2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the refreshed pack at the 25 September 2026 close, after a 9.0% fall in the share price: EV/EBITDA 16.8x (was 17.8x) against a two-peer median of 11.55x (was 11.9x of three), because the pack now withholds Dominion from the profit-line measures; EV/EBIT 31.1x from 32.9x; EV/Sales 9.2x from 9.7x; P/S 5.5x from 6.0x; P/B 2.8x from 3.1x. Still the richest on each.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-24

C21עובדהmedium confidence

NEE's TTM P/E is 17.0x, below the three-peer cohort median of 20.3x and the lowest of the four, level with Duke's 17.0x - the opposite direction from its EV/EBITDA reading - while NEE's TTM ROE (16.8%), gross margin (71.8%) and operating margin (29.5%) are each the highest in the cohort.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary Portfolio-management research pack (vendor_fundamentals…secondary

against this

A below-peer P/E alongside an above-peer EV/EBITDA on the same company is unusual and worth treating as a definitional question rather than picking whichever reads more favorably: NEE's superior ROE and margins are real and help justify some premium, but the P/E figure is also flattered this year by the same GAAP items (C14) that adjusted earnings exclude, which a TTM P/E does not adjust for.

2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the refreshed pack at the 25 September 2026 close: P/E 17.0x (was 18.7x) against a median of 20.3x (was 20.8x), now cheapest of four level with Duke rather than second; ROE, gross margin and operating margin unchanged and still the highest, operating margin now against the two peers the pack keeps on that measure.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-24

C08עובדהmedium confidence

Closing requires HSR Act clearance and regulatory clearances from FERC, the NRC, the Virginia SCC, the North Carolina Utilities Commission and the South Carolina PSC, each without a 'Burdensome Condition' as defined in the Merger Agreement; the companies filed for state and federal merger approvals on July 15, 2026 (Virginia's filing triggering a 180-day statutory review in SCC case PUR-2026-00112, with an evidentiary hearing set to begin November 17, 2026), and both shareholder approvals were obtained on September 3, 2026: NEE's share-issuance proposal passed with 99.47% of votes cast and Dominion's merger proposal with 671.3M votes for against 8.6M against. Virginia's consumer counsel in the Attorney General's office has asked the SCC to treat the September 14 benefits package as an amended application and restart the 180-day clock, which the SCC had not ruled on as of September 24, 2026; management continues to expect the transaction to close in the second half of 2027. The 21 October 2026 release says procedural schedules are set with hearings in Virginia in November and South Carolina in December and final orders expected in January 2027, the North Carolina Utilities Commission's expert witness hearings begin in February 2027, the federal reviews are underway, and the companies still expect to close in the second half of 2027. Testimony filed in Virginia on 2026-10-19 shows the governor's consultant and the SCC's own staff both saying the merger should not be approved as filed; staff suggested limits on Dominion's dividends and an independent board, and on the 21 October call chief executive John Ketchum said he stands behind the filing, will file rebuttal in about two weeks, and sees room for compromise on specific issues.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary NextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary NextEra Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the 2026 special…primary Dominion Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the special meetingprimary Virginia State Corporation Commission - Dominion-NextEra…primary Virginia Scope - AG asks SCC to restart Dominion-NextEra…secondary NextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary WHRO - Spanberger, SCC staff say no to Dominion/NextEra…secondary NextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary

against this

Five separate regulatory clearances is a high bar for a single timeline, and the Virginia review has already drawn unusual process: the SCC added in-person public hearings, and consumer counsel is asking for the clock to restart, which from September 14 would run to about March 2027 rather than January 2027; the Merger Agreement's own outside date (C09) extends to August 2028 specifically to accommodate the Regulatory Clearances not being satisfied on the H2 2027 timeline management states as its base case.
Virginia's governor and the SCC staff both testified on 2026-10-19 that the deal should not proceed as filed, with the staff citing the risk NextEra's unregulated businesses would put on the Virginia utility and proposing dividend limits and an independent board; this is the kind of testimony the pre-registered test named as pressure, though the three-judge panel need not follow it.

2026-09-24editedBoth shareholder votes passed on 2026-09-03 (NEE and Dominion Item 5.07 8-Ks); added the Virginia SCC docket schedule and the consumer counsel's request to restart the review clock.
2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21 gave the state hearing and order schedule; the Virginia clock ruling is still not reported.
2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: Virginia governor and staff testimony of 2026-10-19 opposes the deal as filed and proposes dividend limits and an independent board; management will rebut and sees room for compromise.

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

C23עובדהmedium confidence

Sell-side consensus is 24 buy, 11 hold, 1 sell ratings (Buy).

sourcePortfolio-management research pack (market tier: price,…secondary

2026-09-26editedRe-read in the refreshed pack: 24 buy, 11 hold, 1 sell, unchanged since the first pack.

current state · 2026-09-26written 2026-08-24

C09עובדהhigh confidence

The Merger Agreement's termination rights include an outside date of November 15, 2027, extendable to August 15, 2028 if Regulatory Clearances, the absence of a Burdensome Condition, or the absence of certain governmental orders are not yet satisfied; termination fees are $2.24B payable by Dominion to NextEra in Dominion-side break scenarios, $6.52B payable by NextEra to Dominion in NextEra-side break scenarios (including a superior-proposal termination), and specifically $4.83B payable by NextEra to Dominion where termination results from a failure of regulatory-related closing conditions.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

01

החברה

NextEra היא שני עסקים. Florida Power & Light (FPL) היא ספקית החשמל היחידה שמורשית לפעול בשטחה: היא משרתת כ-12 מיליון איש, הוסיפה יותר מ-90,000 לקוחות ברבעון שהסתיים ביוני, והחשבון הביתי הטיפוסי אצלה נמוך בכ-30% מהממוצע בארה״ב.

NextEra Energy Resources (NEER) מקימה חוות רוח ושמש, סוללות ותחנות גז, ומוכרת את החשמל שלהן בחוזים ארוכי טווח. צבר הפרויקטים החתומים שלה עומד על כ-35.1 ג'יגה-וואט.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות

C01עובדהhigh confidence

NextEra Energy is the largest electric power and energy infrastructure company in North America, owning Florida Power & Light (FPL), which serves about 12 million people across Florida, and NextEra Energy Resources (NEER), described as the largest energy-infrastructure developer in the US, spanning natural gas, nuclear, renewable energy and battery storage.

sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary

current state · 2026-07-24written 2026-08-24

C02עובדהhigh confidence

FPL reported Q2 2026 net income of $1.412B ($0.67/sh) versus $1.275B ($0.62/sh) in Q2 2025; regulatory capital employed grew about 9.3% year over year; capital expenditures were approximately $2.8B in the quarter with full-year 2026 capex guided to $12-13B; FPL's typical residential bill remains about 30% below the national average and is projected to rise only about 2% annually through decade-end; non-fuel O&M is more than 70% better than the industry average per megawatt-hour, and reliability is more than 60% better than the national average; FPL added more than 90,000 customers in the quarter.

sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-08-24

C03עובדהhigh confidence

NextEra Energy Resources reported Q2 2026 GAAP net income of $1.634B ($0.78/sh) versus $983M ($0.48/sh) in Q2 2025, and adjusted earnings of $1.291B ($0.62/sh) versus $1.091B ($0.53/sh); it added 3.6 GW to its backlog in the quarter (2 GW of which was battery storage), and after accounting for 1.1 GW placed into service since the Q1 2026 call, NEER's backlog now totals approximately 35.1 GW.

sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-08-24

ממה היא מרוויחה

FPL מקבלת מהרגולטור תשואה על כל דולר שהיא משקיעה ברשת, וההשקעה נגבית מהלקוחות דרך חשבונות החשמל. לכן היא צומחת דרך בנייה: בסיס הנכסים שעליו היא מקבלת תשואה גדל ב-9.3% בשנה, ובשנת 2026 היא תשקיע 12 עד 13 מיליארד דולר. NEER קובעת בחוזה ארוך את רוב ההכנסות של כל תחנה עוד לפני שהבנייה מתחילה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C02עובדהhigh confidence

FPL reported Q2 2026 net income of $1.412B ($0.67/sh) versus $1.275B ($0.62/sh) in Q2 2025; regulatory capital employed grew about 9.3% year over year; capital expenditures were approximately $2.8B in the quarter with full-year 2026 capex guided to $12-13B; FPL's typical residential bill remains about 30% below the national average and is projected to rise only about 2% annually through decade-end; non-fuel O&M is more than 70% better than the industry average per megawatt-hour, and reliability is more than 60% better than the national average; FPL added more than 90,000 customers in the quarter.

sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-08-24

C03עובדהhigh confidence

NextEra Energy Resources reported Q2 2026 GAAP net income of $1.634B ($0.78/sh) versus $983M ($0.48/sh) in Q2 2025, and adjusted earnings of $1.291B ($0.62/sh) versus $1.091B ($0.53/sh); it added 3.6 GW to its backlog in the quarter (2 GW of which was battery storage), and after accounting for 1.1 GW placed into service since the Q1 2026 call, NEER's backlog now totals approximately 35.1 GW.

sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-08-24

פירוט מקורות ההכנסה

מקור	משקל במכירות (2025)	איך
Florida Power & Light (FPL)	66.6%	מוכרת חשמל לכ-12 מיליון תושבי פלורידה בתעריפים שרגולטור המדינה קובע, כך שיבטיחו לה תשואה על השקעותיה.
NextEra Energy Resources (NEER)	32.0%	מוכרת חשמל, קיבולת והולכה מחוות רוח ושמש, אגירה, תחנות גז ותחנות גרעין, בעיקר בחוזים ארוכי טווח, ובנוסף הכנסות מגידור והשכרה.
פעילות תאגידית ואחרות	1.4%	פעילויות נוספות וקיזוזים בין שני העסקים.

ההנהלה

ג'ון קטצ'ום עומד בראש NextEra מאז 2022, וב-2026 סגר את עסקת המיזוג עם Dominion. מייקל דאן מונה ב-2025 לסמנכ״ל הכספים, השלישי מאז 2022. בעלי עניין מחזיקים הרבה פחות מ-1% מהחברה. מחצית הבונוס השנתי נקבעת לפי צמיחת הרווחים והתשואה על ההון, ומחציתו לפי הצלחה בהפעלת התחנות. מענקי המניות נקבעים לפי אותם שני מדדים על פני שלוש שנים, עם התאמה קלה לביצועי המניה מול המתחרות. שום רכיב בשכר אינו תלוי בתזרים המזומנים או בחוב.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C40עובדהhigh confidence

John W. Ketchum has been NEE's president and chief executive since March 2022 and chairman since July 2022; Michael H. Dunne has been chief financial officer since May 22, 2025, after serving as treasurer from January 2023 and as a Bank of America energy investment banker from 2012 to 2022; he followed Terrell Kirk Crews II (CFO March 2022 to May 2024) and Brian W. Bolster (CFO May 2024 to May 2025), who has run NextEra Energy Resources since May 22, 2025 after Goldman Sachs.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary NextEra Energy proxy statement (DEF 14A), filed April 1,…primary

current state · 2026-02-13written 2026-10-04

C41עובדהhigh confidence

As of March 23, 2026 all directors, nominees and executive officers as a group (22 persons) beneficially owned 3,693,640 shares, 2,175,364 of them acquirable through options within 60 days, which the proxy states is less than 1%; John W. Ketchum held 1,478,528, the largest insider; Vanguard (9.93%), BlackRock (7.26%) and State Street (5.58%) were the only holders above 5%; no shares were pledged.

sourceNextEra Energy proxy statement (DEF 14A), filed April 1,…primary

current state · 2026-03-23written 2026-10-04

C42עובדהhigh confidence

The annual bonus pays 50% on adjusted EPS growth and adjusted ROE measured against the industry and 50% on FPL and NEER operating goals, and paid 189% of target for 2025 on adjusted EPS growth of 8.2% and adjusted ROE of 14.8%; performance share awards pay 80% on three-year adjusted ROE and adjusted EPS growth and 20% on operating measures, with a plus or minus 20% relative TSR modifier that cut the 2023-2025 cycle from 198% to 158%. The CEO's 2025 equity was 65% performance shares and 25% options. From 2026 targets rise from the median to the 55th percentile and the individual modifier leaves the share awards.

sourceNextEra Energy proxy statement (DEF 14A), filed April 1,…primary

against this

Nothing in either plan pays on free cash flow, balance-sheet strength or per-share book value, and adjusted EPS excludes hedge marks and non-recurring charges the GAAP figure carries (C14).

current state · 2026-04-01written 2026-10-04

C04עובדהhigh confidence

On May 15/18, 2026, NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy entered a definitive, all-stock Agreement and Plan of Merger: Dominion shareholders receive 0.8138 shares of NextEra common stock plus a pro rata share of $360M cash (taxable) per Dominion share, resulting in NextEra and Dominion shareholders owning approximately 74.5% and 25.5% of the combined company; the combined company operates under the NextEra Energy name and NYSE ticker NEE, with dual headquarters in Juno Beach, FL and Richmond, VA and an operational headquarters in Cayce, SC.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy to Combine (8-K…primary

historical · 2026-05-15written 2026-08-24

02

היתרון התחרותי, ומי מאיים עליו

למה הלקוחות נשארים

בפלורידה אף גורם אחר לא יכול לחבר לקוח לרשת, ולכן השאלה היחידה היא אם הרגולטור ימשיך לאשר תשואה הוגנת. העלויות הנמוכות מחזקות את הטיעון: מחיר החשמל הביתי הממוצע בפלורידה נמוך בכ-18% מהממוצע בארה״ב, ועלויות ההפעלה של החברה טובות מהממוצע בענף ביותר מ-70%.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C38עובדהmedium confidence

Florida's statewide average residential electricity price was 15.17 cents/kWh in May 2026 versus a US average of 18.44 cents/kWh (about 18% below the national average), per EIA's Electric Power Monthly; FPL serves roughly 75% of Florida's population, so this state-level figure is a proxy for, not an FPL-specific measurement of, its low-cost positioning.

sourceUS Energy Information Administration - Electric Power…secondary

against this

This EIA figure is a Florida statewide average across all utilities serving the state, not an FPL-specific rate; FPL's own claim of being about 30% below the national average (C02) is more favorable than the state average, and the state figure blends in other, potentially higher-cost Florida utilities, so it understates rather than overstates FPL's own relative position.

current state · 2026-05-01written 2026-08-24

C02עובדהhigh confidence

FPL reported Q2 2026 net income of $1.412B ($0.67/sh) versus $1.275B ($0.62/sh) in Q2 2025; regulatory capital employed grew about 9.3% year over year; capital expenditures were approximately $2.8B in the quarter with full-year 2026 capex guided to $12-13B; FPL's typical residential bill remains about 30% below the national average and is projected to rise only about 2% annually through decade-end; non-fuel O&M is more than 70% better than the industry average per megawatt-hour, and reliability is more than 60% better than the national average; FPL added more than 90,000 customers in the quarter.

sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-08-24

האיום

בוני מרכזי הנתונים הגדולים מתחילים לייצר חשמל משלהם באתר במקום לרכוש אותו בחוזים; OpenAI ו-Anthropic לבדן שכרו יותר מ-10 ג'יגה-וואט. זה לא יפגע במשקי הבית בפלורידה, שאין להם רשת אחרת להתחבר אליה, אבל זו תחרות על בדיוק הביקוש החדש ש-NEER מנסה לזכות בו.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 1 טענה

C25עובדהmedium confidence

Behind-the-meter, off-grid data-center power is scaling nationally: nearly every hyperscaler is now pursuing behind-the-meter projects, and OpenAI and Anthropic alone have signed leases for more than 10 GW of behind-the-meter power.

sourceCleanview - Bypassing the Grid: How Data Center Developers…secondary

against this

Behind-the-meter capacity cannot substitute for FPL's regulated grid connection at all, and most of NEER's own book is already signed under long-term PPAs rather than exposed the way an uncontracted merchant generator's future pipeline is, so this threat bears more on NEER's future contracting pace than on NEE's existing earnings base.

current state · 2026-08-24written 2026-08-24

המתחרות: SPCX, DUK, AEP, D, ועוד אחת שהיא פרטית, פיתוח פנימי של לקוחות או נסחרת בחו״ל.

פירוט המתחרים

סימול	מתחרה	שלב	בסיס להשוואה
SPCX	xAI (אתרי טורבינות הגז Colossus 1 ו-2) וענקיות ענן אחרות שמקימות ייצור חשמל מאחורי המונהבסיס להשוואה: מוצר שונה	כבר נמכר	מוצר שונה
חברה פרטית	OpenAI ו-Anthropic (לפי דיווחים, יותר מ-10 ג'יגה-וואט של חוזי שכירות לייצור חשמל מאחורי המונה בענף כולו)בסיס להשוואה: חברה פרטית	הוכרז	חברה פרטית
DUK	Duke Energyבסיס להשוואה: כן	כבר נמכר	כן
AEP	American Electric Power Companyבסיס להשוואה: כן	כבר נמכר	כן
D	Dominion Energyבסיס להשוואה: אין נתון שמיש	כבר נמכר	אין נתון שמיש

03

פוטנציאל הצמיחה

גודל ההזדמנות

שתי החברות צופות שהביקוש בשעות השיא בפלורידה, בווירג'יניה ובקרוליינות יעלה מכ-59 ג'יגה-וואט ב-2026 לכ-81 ב-2032. הנתח של NextEra: צבר חתום של 35.1 ג'יגה-וואט ב-NEER, ועניין של לקוחות גדולים בפלורידה בהיקף של כ-21 ג'יגה-וואט, ו-12 מהם במגעים מתקדמים, ואף אחד לא נחתם. אף גורם לא מפרסם איזה חלק מהצמיחה האזורית יהפוך לחוזים של NextEra.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות

C32טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Combined FPL, Dominion Energy Virginia/North Carolina and Dominion Energy South Carolina peak load is projected to rise from about 59 GW in 2026 to about 81 GW by 2032; FPL's own internal forecast includes about 8 GW of large load through 2032.

sourceNextEra Energy and Dominion Energy to Combine (8-K…primary

against this

This is a company-prepared forecast blending FPL's internal projections with PJM's own DOM-zone summer-peak forecast and Dominion Energy South Carolina's 2026 IRP winter-peak forecast, which use different methodologies stitched together rather than one consistent modeling approach across all four states.

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

C03עובדהhigh confidence

NextEra Energy Resources reported Q2 2026 GAAP net income of $1.634B ($0.78/sh) versus $983M ($0.48/sh) in Q2 2025, and adjusted earnings of $1.291B ($0.62/sh) versus $1.091B ($0.53/sh); it added 3.6 GW to its backlog in the quarter (2 GW of which was battery storage), and after accounting for 1.1 GW placed into service since the Q1 2026 call, NEER's backlog now totals approximately 35.1 GW.

sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-08-24

C15טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

FPL has approximately 21 GW of large-load interest, of which it is in advanced discussions on 12 GW, a portion of which it believes it could begin serving as soon as 2028; FPL continues to expect to announce at least one large-load transaction under its tariff by the end of the year, but as of the Q2 2026 release no such transaction is signed. On the 21 October 2026 call FPL's chief said the pipeline of over 20 GW of interest remains, that the first couple of gigawatts need only battery storage, and that the company remains confident of announcing a deal before the end of the year; no size was given and none is signed.

sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary NextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary

against this

'Advanced discussions' and 'continues to expect to announce' are management's own characterization of an unsigned pipeline; the same or similar language has now appeared across at least two consecutive quarterly releases without a signed transaction, which is worth watching for whether the pipeline is genuinely close or persistently optimistic.

2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: year-end announcement expectation restated aloud, still unsigned and unsized.

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

מי כבר התחייב

המחויבות החדשה והגדולה יוצאת דופן: תחנות גז במימון ממשלתי בטקסס ובפנסילבניה, שהוסכמו תחילה עם US Department of Commerce ועם יפן בהיקף של עד 10 ג'יגה-וואט. ב-21 באוקטובר אמרה NextEra שנחתמו שלושה מרכזים כאלה, בהיקף של כ-16.5 ג'יגה-וואט, עם מימון ראשוני של 5.7 מיליארד דולר, והם נבנים תמורת דמי שירות. התחנות הראשונות אמורות לקום עד סוף 2028.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 1 טענה

C16טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

NextEra Energy announced it executed definitive agreements with the US Department of Commerce and the Government of Japan to fund the development and operation of up to 10 GW of natural gas-powered generation in Texas and Pennsylvania (including a roughly 4.3 GW project in Pennsylvania), releasing an initial funding tranche including an initial $3.3B investment for down payments on long-lead equipment and EPC contractor selection; the arrangement is tied to Japan's broader $550B US investment commitment, with initial completion targeted by the end of 2028 and full build-out by 2032. The 21 October 2026 results release says NextEra Energy Resources has now signed definitive agreements for three federal hub projects, two in Texas and one in Pennsylvania, totalling about 16.5 GW, with $5.7B of initial funding secured year to date, and expects to develop, build and operate them for fees without investing capital. On the call management said the early payments are modest in 2026 and 2027, building through 2032, and that operating fees from 2032 to 2052 should be roughly half the earnings per share NextEra would earn if it owned the plants.

sourceNextEra Energy - NextEra Energy, U.S. Department of Commerce…primary NextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary NextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary

against this

This is an unusual government-to-company funding structure rather than a conventional customer PPA, and NextEra's own equity contribution and the ultimate offtake counterparty for the generated power are not disclosed in the release, so the demand-side economics of the arrangement are less transparent than a signed corporate PPA would be.

2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21: three federal hubs of about 16.5 GW signed with $5.7B initial funding, built for fees; the earlier claim named up to 10 GW.
2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: fee economics stated (modest 2026-27 payments; 2032-52 fees about half of ownership earnings).

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

מאיפה מגיעה הצמיחה, לפי פעילות

מאיפה מגיעה הצמיחה

פעילות	משקל בהכנסות	צמיחה ברבעון האחרון	בחצי השנה האחרונה	בשנה האחרונה	משקל בעוד 3 שנים, אם הקצב של הרבעון האחרון יימשך
Florida Power & Light Company	65%	+6.9%	-	-	65%
פעילות NEER	35%	+6.8%	-	-	35%
החברה כולה	100%	+6.9%	-	-	100%

לפי החלוקה בדוחות עד 31 במרץ 2026, אם כל פעילות תמשיך לצמוח בקצב של הרבעון האחרון שלה, החברה תצמח בכ-7% בשנה הבאה וב-7% בשנה השלישית, לעומת 10.8% ב-12 החודשים האחרונים. זה תרחיש ולא תחזית: אף פעילות לא ממשיכה לצמוח באותו קצב.

04

התוצאות

המספרים

היא צומחת?בקצב יציב

המכירות צמחו ב-9.6% ב-12 החודשים עד ספטמבר 2026, בקצב דומה ל-11% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2025.

היא רווחית?מאוד

שיעור הרווח התפעולי עומד על 30%, לעומת 36% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2023.

עד כמה היא יציבה?תנודתית

צמיחת המכירות השנתית נעה בין ‎−12% ל-‎+34% ב-5 השנים האחרונות, ובשתיים מהן המכירות ירדו.

התשואה על ההון גבוהה?נמוכה

כל דולר שמושקע בעסק מניב 5.4% בשנה אחרי מס, בערך כמו בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2021 (3.0%).

היא מייצרת מזומנים?הרבה

העסק הניב 14.8 מיליארד דולר תזרים מפעילות שוטפת, 51% מהמכירות, לפני השקעות הוניות, שהחברה אינה מתייגת בדיווחיה.

המאזן איתן?מתוח

החוב שלה גבוה ב-100 מיליארד דולר מהמזומן שבידיה, כ-6.8 שנות תזרים מפעילות שוטפת.

בעלי המניות מדוללים?בהדרגה

מספר המניות עלה ב-6.4% ב-4.8 שנים.

כל המספרים

הנתונים מתוך דוחות 10-K ו-10-Q שהחברה הגישה, נקראו ב-26 באוקטובר 2026. שנת הכספים מסתיימת בדצמבר.

	דצמבר 2021	דצמבר 2022	דצמבר 2023	דצמבר 2024	דצמבר 2025	12 חודשים עד ספטמבר 2026
גודל וצמיחה
מכירות	$17.1B	$21.0B	$28.1B	$24.8B	$27.4B	$28.8B
צמיחת המכירות	−5.2%	+23%	+34%	−12%	+11%	+9.6%
רווח
שיעור הרווח התפעולי	17%	19%	36%	30%	30%	30%
שיעור הרווח הנקי	21%	20%	26%	28%	25%	40%
עלות הצמיחה, לכל דולר מכירות
תגמול מבוסס מניות	0.7%	0.7%	0.5%	0.6%	0.7%	-
מזומנים
תזרים מפעילות שוטפת	$7.55B	$8.26B	$11.3B	$13.3B	$12.5B	$14.8B
מאזן
מזומנים והשקעות לזמן קצר	$639M	$1.60B	$2.69B	$1.49B	$2.81B	$5.58B
חוב	$52.7B	$61.9B	$68.3B	$80.4B	$93.1B	$106B
מזומן נטו	−$52.1B	−$60.3B	−$65.6B	−$79.0B	−$90.2B	−$100B
תשואות ומניות
תשואה על ההון המושקע	3.0%	3.6%	8.1%	5.7%	6.0%	5.4%
מספר המניות (בדילול מלא)	1.97B	1.98B	2.03B	2.06B	2.07B	2.10B

עלות הצמיחה

חברת חשמל גדלה דרך בנייה, ולכן מחיר הצמיחה שלה הוא הון ולא מחקר או אנשי מכירות. NextEra משקיעה מדי שנה בתחנות וברשת חדשות בערך כמו כל המכירות שלה, כפליים ממה שהפעילות מניבה במזומן, ולווה את ההפרש. הריבית היא העלות שעולה הכי מהר. האם הצמיחה משפרת את הרווחיות אי אפשר לקבוע, כי ההכנסות תנודתיות מדי.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C44עובדהhigh confidence

Capital spending runs at about 90 cents to a dollar per sales dollar every year: 0.94 in 2021, 0.92 in 2022, 0.89 in 2023, 1.00 in 2024 and 0.90 in 2025. Cash interest paid rose from $2,463M in 2023 to $3,501M in 2025, from about 8.8 to 12.8 cents per sales dollar, while stock pay stays under 1 cent; NEE tags no research and development expense.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary NextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2022primary

against this

Revenue swings with fuel pass-through and NEER's hedge marks (2023 at $28,114M, 2024 at $24,753M), so a per-sales-dollar ratio for a utility moves with fuel prices as much as with spending.

historical · FY2021 to FY2025written 2026-10-04

C43עובדהhigh confidence

From 2021 to 2025 NEE spent about $109.8B on capital expenditures, NEER investments and nuclear fuel against $52.9B of operating cash flow; it issued about $8.1B of common stock and equity units (mostly $1.46B in 2022, $4.51B in 2023 and $2.04B in 2025), bought back no stock, paid dividends rising from $3.78B in 2023 to $4.68B in 2025, and noncurrent long-term debt rose from $50,960M to $89,556M; the diluted count rose about 5% to 2,070.6M. It sold Florida City Gas in 2023 for $924M.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary NextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2022primary

against this

NEER's partners also funded growth: proceeds from differential membership investors were $2.7B to $4.2B a year, capital outside the common equity that carries its own claims on the projects (C14).

historical · FY2021 to FY2025written 2026-10-04

הדוח האחרון (24 ביולי)

הרבעון שהסתיים ביוני 2026, לפי הדוחות.

12%

צמיחת המכירות

לעומת הרבעון המקביל אשתקד

12.4%

צמיחה לעומת הרבעון הקודם

לעומת 3.1% ברבעון שלפני כן

30¢

רווח תפעולי

לכל דולר מכירות

הרבעון שהסתיים בספטמבר עקף את התחזיות. הרווח המתואם למניה עלה ב-9.7% ל-1.24 דולר, והחברה חזרה על תחזית שנתית של 3.92 עד 4.02 דולר. שלושה פרויקטי גז בהיקף של כ-16.5 ג'יגה-וואט, שממומנים על ידי הממשלה, נחתמו וישולמו כדמי שירות.

השיחה הביאה את החדשות הרעות. מושל וירג'יניה וצוות הרגולטור עצמו הגישו ב-19 באוקטובר עדויות לפיהן אין לאשר את עסקת Dominion בנוסחה הנוכחית; הצוות הציע להגביל את הדיבידנדים של Dominion ולהקים דירקטוריון עצמאי. ההנהלה תשיב בתוך כשבועיים, ועדיין מצפה להזמנות בינואר 2027.

מה זה אומר על התזההרווח והעבודה בגז חיזקו את החלק היציב בתזה. העדות בווירג'יניה היא בדיוק סוג הלחץ שהמבחן הבא שלנו נועד לתפוס, אבל השופטים עוד לא הכריעו וייתכן שלא יאמצו אותה, ולכן הציון נשאר ניטרלי והסיכון בולט יותר.

הרבעון בפירוט

18.9%Q3 25

-18.4%Q4 25

3.1%Q1 26

12.4%Q2 26

צמיחת המכירות לעומת הרבעון הקודם, לפי הדוחות.

רווח למניה $1.15, לעומת תחזית של $1.09; בדוח עצמו $1.50, והפער הוא הסעיפים שהחברה מנטרלת.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות

C13עובדהhigh confidence

Q3 2026 GAAP net income attributable to NextEra was $4.775B ($2.28/sh) versus $2.438B ($1.18/sh) in Q3 2025; adjusted earnings were $2.592B ($1.24/sh) versus $2.348B ($1.13/sh), a 9.7% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS. In Q2 2026 adjusted earnings were $2.407B ($1.15/sh) versus $2.164B ($1.05/sh), up 9.5% (GAAP $3.144B, $1.50/sh).

sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary NextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary

2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 results of 2026-10-21 added to the Q2 figures: adjusted EPS up 9.7%.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-08-24

C12טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

NextEra's standalone 2026 guidance is adjusted EPS of $3.92-4.02 (targeting the high end), with a compound annual growth rate in adjusted EPS of 8%+ through 2032 (targeting the same rate 2032-2035), both off a 2025 base of $3.71; the company also expects to grow dividends per share at roughly 10% per year through 2026 (off a 2024 base) and 6% per year from year-end 2026 through 2028. The 21 October 2026 results release repeated all of this unchanged.

sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary NextEra Energy Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025…primary NextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary

against this

An 8%+ CAGR guided off a fixed 2025 base is a multi-year compounding claim management has strong incentive to keep unchanged through a pending merger vote; it has not yet been tested against a full commodity or rate-case cycle since the guidance was last reaffirmed, and the combined-company 9%+ target depends on the merger itself closing (C06).

2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21 repeated the guidance, the high-end target and the growth rates.

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

C16טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

NextEra Energy announced it executed definitive agreements with the US Department of Commerce and the Government of Japan to fund the development and operation of up to 10 GW of natural gas-powered generation in Texas and Pennsylvania (including a roughly 4.3 GW project in Pennsylvania), releasing an initial funding tranche including an initial $3.3B investment for down payments on long-lead equipment and EPC contractor selection; the arrangement is tied to Japan's broader $550B US investment commitment, with initial completion targeted by the end of 2028 and full build-out by 2032. The 21 October 2026 results release says NextEra Energy Resources has now signed definitive agreements for three federal hub projects, two in Texas and one in Pennsylvania, totalling about 16.5 GW, with $5.7B of initial funding secured year to date, and expects to develop, build and operate them for fees without investing capital. On the call management said the early payments are modest in 2026 and 2027, building through 2032, and that operating fees from 2032 to 2052 should be roughly half the earnings per share NextEra would earn if it owned the plants.

sourceNextEra Energy - NextEra Energy, U.S. Department of Commerce…primary NextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary NextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary

against this

This is an unusual government-to-company funding structure rather than a conventional customer PPA, and NextEra's own equity contribution and the ultimate offtake counterparty for the generated power are not disclosed in the release, so the demand-side economics of the arrangement are less transparent than a signed corporate PPA would be.

2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21: three federal hubs of about 16.5 GW signed with $5.7B initial funding, built for fees; the earlier claim named up to 10 GW.
2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: fee economics stated (modest 2026-27 payments; 2032-52 fees about half of ownership earnings).

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

C08עובדהmedium confidence

Closing requires HSR Act clearance and regulatory clearances from FERC, the NRC, the Virginia SCC, the North Carolina Utilities Commission and the South Carolina PSC, each without a 'Burdensome Condition' as defined in the Merger Agreement; the companies filed for state and federal merger approvals on July 15, 2026 (Virginia's filing triggering a 180-day statutory review in SCC case PUR-2026-00112, with an evidentiary hearing set to begin November 17, 2026), and both shareholder approvals were obtained on September 3, 2026: NEE's share-issuance proposal passed with 99.47% of votes cast and Dominion's merger proposal with 671.3M votes for against 8.6M against. Virginia's consumer counsel in the Attorney General's office has asked the SCC to treat the September 14 benefits package as an amended application and restart the 180-day clock, which the SCC had not ruled on as of September 24, 2026; management continues to expect the transaction to close in the second half of 2027. The 21 October 2026 release says procedural schedules are set with hearings in Virginia in November and South Carolina in December and final orders expected in January 2027, the North Carolina Utilities Commission's expert witness hearings begin in February 2027, the federal reviews are underway, and the companies still expect to close in the second half of 2027. Testimony filed in Virginia on 2026-10-19 shows the governor's consultant and the SCC's own staff both saying the merger should not be approved as filed; staff suggested limits on Dominion's dividends and an independent board, and on the 21 October call chief executive John Ketchum said he stands behind the filing, will file rebuttal in about two weeks, and sees room for compromise on specific issues.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary NextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary NextEra Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the 2026 special…primary Dominion Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the special meetingprimary Virginia State Corporation Commission - Dominion-NextEra…primary Virginia Scope - AG asks SCC to restart Dominion-NextEra…secondary NextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary WHRO - Spanberger, SCC staff say no to Dominion/NextEra…secondary NextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary

against this

Five separate regulatory clearances is a high bar for a single timeline, and the Virginia review has already drawn unusual process: the SCC added in-person public hearings, and consumer counsel is asking for the clock to restart, which from September 14 would run to about March 2027 rather than January 2027; the Merger Agreement's own outside date (C09) extends to August 2028 specifically to accommodate the Regulatory Clearances not being satisfied on the H2 2027 timeline management states as its base case.
Virginia's governor and the SCC staff both testified on 2026-10-19 that the deal should not proceed as filed, with the staff citing the risk NextEra's unregulated businesses would put on the Virginia utility and proposing dividend limits and an independent board; this is the kind of testimony the pre-registered test named as pressure, though the three-judge panel need not follow it.

2026-09-24editedBoth shareholder votes passed on 2026-09-03 (NEE and Dominion Item 5.07 8-Ks); added the Virginia SCC docket schedule and the consumer counsel's request to restart the review clock.
2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21 gave the state hearing and order schedule; the Virginia clock ruling is still not reported.
2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: Virginia governor and staff testimony of 2026-10-19 opposes the deal as filed and proposes dividend limits and an independent board; management will rebut and sees room for compromise.

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

C15טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

FPL has approximately 21 GW of large-load interest, of which it is in advanced discussions on 12 GW, a portion of which it believes it could begin serving as soon as 2028; FPL continues to expect to announce at least one large-load transaction under its tariff by the end of the year, but as of the Q2 2026 release no such transaction is signed. On the 21 October 2026 call FPL's chief said the pipeline of over 20 GW of interest remains, that the first couple of gigawatts need only battery storage, and that the company remains confident of announcing a deal before the end of the year; no size was given and none is signed.

sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary NextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary

against this

'Advanced discussions' and 'continues to expect to announce' are management's own characterization of an unsigned pipeline; the same or similar language has now appeared across at least two consecutive quarterly releases without a signed transaction, which is worth watching for whether the pipeline is genuinely close or persistently optimistic.

2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: year-end announcement expectation restated aloud, still unsigned and unsized.

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

לאן הלך הכסף

היא לוותה כדי לבנות: החוב לזמן ארוך עלה ל-98.79 מיליארד דולר ביוני, מ-89.56 מיליארד בדצמבר. עסקת Dominion משולמת במניות, ובסיומה בעלי Dominion יחזיקו ב-25.5% מהחברה המאוחדת.

בעלי עניין ברבעון השני של 2026: 4 קניות ו-1 מכירות, לפי הדיווחים שהגישו ל-SEC (Form 4).

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C35עובדהhigh confidence

NEE's total consolidated long-term debt was $98,790M at 2026-06-30, up from $89,556M at 2025-12-31; total assets were $232,807M, up from $212,721M; NEE reported a redeemable noncontrolling interest of $64M at 2026-06-30 (versus none at 2025-12-31) and noncontrolling interests of $10,969M within equity.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-Q for Q2 2026primary

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-08-24

C04עובדהhigh confidence

On May 15/18, 2026, NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy entered a definitive, all-stock Agreement and Plan of Merger: Dominion shareholders receive 0.8138 shares of NextEra common stock plus a pro rata share of $360M cash (taxable) per Dominion share, resulting in NextEra and Dominion shareholders owning approximately 74.5% and 25.5% of the combined company; the combined company operates under the NextEra Energy name and NYSE ticker NEE, with dual headquarters in Juno Beach, FL and Richmond, VA and an operational headquarters in Cayce, SC.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy to Combine (8-K…primary

historical · 2026-05-15written 2026-08-24

05

המחיר, ואיפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

בקצרה. מתומחרת במלואה. NextEra היא חברת החשמל המנוהלת הכי טוב בקבוצה שלה, והיא כבר יקרה מהמתחרות. זה מחזיק רק אם הצמיחה תימשך והעסקה המתוכננת עם Dominion תקבל אישור מכל חמשת הרגולטורים, ואף אחד משני התנאים אינו מובטח.

מחיר המניה

$76.08

שער סגירה, 25 בספטמבר

מכפיל ה-EBITDA (שווי החברה ביחס לרווח התזרימי)

16.8

החציון של המתחרות 11.6

החדשות הן בלוח הזמנים של העסקה. שתי אסיפות בעלי המניות אישרו אותה ב-3 בספטמבר. אחר כך הרחיבו החברות את ההצעה ללקוחות בווירג'יניה, והיועץ לענייני צרכנים של וירג'יניה ביקש מהרגולטור להתחיל מחדש את בדיקת 180 הימים שלו.

הדיון יתחיל ב-17 בנובמבר. החברות עדיין מצפות לסגור במחצית השנייה של 2027, ואם הבדיקה תתחיל מחדש, החלטת וירג'יניה תגיע בערך במרץ 2027, עדיין בתוך לוח הזמנים.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C08עובדהmedium confidence

Closing requires HSR Act clearance and regulatory clearances from FERC, the NRC, the Virginia SCC, the North Carolina Utilities Commission and the South Carolina PSC, each without a 'Burdensome Condition' as defined in the Merger Agreement; the companies filed for state and federal merger approvals on July 15, 2026 (Virginia's filing triggering a 180-day statutory review in SCC case PUR-2026-00112, with an evidentiary hearing set to begin November 17, 2026), and both shareholder approvals were obtained on September 3, 2026: NEE's share-issuance proposal passed with 99.47% of votes cast and Dominion's merger proposal with 671.3M votes for against 8.6M against. Virginia's consumer counsel in the Attorney General's office has asked the SCC to treat the September 14 benefits package as an amended application and restart the 180-day clock, which the SCC had not ruled on as of September 24, 2026; management continues to expect the transaction to close in the second half of 2027. The 21 October 2026 release says procedural schedules are set with hearings in Virginia in November and South Carolina in December and final orders expected in January 2027, the North Carolina Utilities Commission's expert witness hearings begin in February 2027, the federal reviews are underway, and the companies still expect to close in the second half of 2027. Testimony filed in Virginia on 2026-10-19 shows the governor's consultant and the SCC's own staff both saying the merger should not be approved as filed; staff suggested limits on Dominion's dividends and an independent board, and on the 21 October call chief executive John Ketchum said he stands behind the filing, will file rebuttal in about two weeks, and sees room for compromise on specific issues.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary NextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary NextEra Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the 2026 special…primary Dominion Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the special meetingprimary Virginia State Corporation Commission - Dominion-NextEra…primary Virginia Scope - AG asks SCC to restart Dominion-NextEra…secondary NextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary WHRO - Spanberger, SCC staff say no to Dominion/NextEra…secondary NextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary

against this

Five separate regulatory clearances is a high bar for a single timeline, and the Virginia review has already drawn unusual process: the SCC added in-person public hearings, and consumer counsel is asking for the clock to restart, which from September 14 would run to about March 2027 rather than January 2027; the Merger Agreement's own outside date (C09) extends to August 2028 specifically to accommodate the Regulatory Clearances not being satisfied on the H2 2027 timeline management states as its base case.
Virginia's governor and the SCC staff both testified on 2026-10-19 that the deal should not proceed as filed, with the staff citing the risk NextEra's unregulated businesses would put on the Virginia utility and proposing dividend limits and an independent board; this is the kind of testimony the pre-registered test named as pressure, though the three-judge panel need not follow it.

2026-09-24editedBoth shareholder votes passed on 2026-09-03 (NEE and Dominion Item 5.07 8-Ks); added the Virginia SCC docket schedule and the consumer counsel's request to restart the review clock.
2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21 gave the state hearing and order schedule; the Virginia clock ruling is still not reported.
2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: Virginia governor and staff testimony of 2026-10-19 opposes the deal as filed and proposes dividend limits and an independent board; management will rebut and sees room for compromise.

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

C07טענת ההנהלהhigh confidence

The combined company proposed $2.25B in total bill credits for Dominion Energy's customers in Virginia (~79%, stated as $1.78B over two years), South Carolina (~17%) and North Carolina (~3%), paid over 24 months post-close; on September 14, 2026 the companies proposed extending Virginia's $10-a-month residential credit from two years to four by increasing the aggregate shareholder-funded Virginia credit (new total not disclosed) and asking the Virginia SCC to redirect data centers' share to residential customers, and added a $100M increase to the EnergyShare bill-assistance program through 2038, a $100M workforce fund, an up-to-$1B-a-year, five-year Virginia supplier spending program and a shareholder-funded co-headquarters tower in Richmond.

sourceNextEra Energy and Dominion Energy to Combine (8-K…primary NextEra Energy 8-K, Item 7.01: joint release and stakeholder…primary Dominion Energy 8-K, Item 7.01: joint investor presentation…primary

against this

The $2.25B bill-credit commitment is contingent on the deal closing, so it functions partly as a deal-marketing tool aimed at regulators and Dominion's own customer base rather than a benefit customers can rely on unless every approval is obtained; opponents (C10) argue the deal's scale costs customers more than the credits offset over time.
The September 14 enlargement was made 'in direct response to feedback from policymakers and other stakeholders' and its added cost to shareholders is not disclosed; Virginia's consumer counsel in the Attorney General's office has argued it puts 'a different deal on the table' and asked the SCC to restart its review clock (C08), so the concessions are still moving and their total is not yet a known number.

2026-09-24edited2026-09-14 8-K (Ex-99.1, Ex-99.2) and Dominion's Ex-99.2 of the same day: the Virginia residential credit was extended from two to four years with an undisclosed larger aggregate, and new shareholder-funded commitments were added.

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

איך לקרוא את המכפיל

אם סופרים גם את החוב, שווי NextEra הוא כ-17 פעמים ה-EBITDA השנתי שלה, המדד שבו מקובל להשוות חברות חשמל. החציון אצל המתחרות, Duke וגם American Electric Power, הוא כ-12.

במכפיל הרווח היא הזולה מבין הארבע, כולל Dominion, ברמה של דיוק, והיא מניבה את התשואות הטובות ביותר בקבוצה. המחיר מניח ש-NextEra תשמור על היתרון הזה, יהיה מה שיהיה בעסקה.

מול ההיסטוריה שלה. זולה מהמכפיל המקובל שלה בכל המדדים. הפרמיה שהקונים משלמים היא על פני המתחרות, לא על פני העבר שלה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C20עובדהhigh confidence

On the filed-competitor cohort (D, DUK, AEP), NEE's TTM EV/EBITDA is 16.8x against 11.4x for Duke and 11.7x for AEP, the richest of the three with a usable figure; EV/EBIT is 31.1x against a median of 18.9x; EV/Sales is 9.2x against 5.4x; price-to-sales is 5.5x against 2.9x; price-to-book is 2.8x against 1.8x - NEE trades at the richest multiple in its cohort on every enterprise-value, sales and book measure.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary Portfolio-management research pack (vendor_fundamentals…secondary

2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the refreshed pack at the 25 September 2026 close, after a 9.0% fall in the share price: EV/EBITDA 16.8x (was 17.8x) against a two-peer median of 11.55x (was 11.9x of three), because the pack now withholds Dominion from the profit-line measures; EV/EBIT 31.1x from 32.9x; EV/Sales 9.2x from 9.7x; P/S 5.5x from 6.0x; P/B 2.8x from 3.1x. Still the richest on each.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-24

C21עובדהmedium confidence

NEE's TTM P/E is 17.0x, below the three-peer cohort median of 20.3x and the lowest of the four, level with Duke's 17.0x - the opposite direction from its EV/EBITDA reading - while NEE's TTM ROE (16.8%), gross margin (71.8%) and operating margin (29.5%) are each the highest in the cohort.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary Portfolio-management research pack (vendor_fundamentals…secondary

against this

A below-peer P/E alongside an above-peer EV/EBITDA on the same company is unusual and worth treating as a definitional question rather than picking whichever reads more favorably: NEE's superior ROE and margins are real and help justify some premium, but the P/E figure is also flattered this year by the same GAAP items (C14) that adjusted earnings exclude, which a TTM P/E does not adjust for.

2026-09-26editedRe-struck on the refreshed pack at the 25 September 2026 close: P/E 17.0x (was 18.7x) against a median of 20.3x (was 20.8x), now cheapest of four level with Duke rather than second; ROE, gross margin and operating margin unchanged and still the highest, operating margin now against the two peers the pack keeps on that measure.

current state · 2026-09-25written 2026-08-24

המכפיל מול המתחרים

המתחרות שהדוח השנתי של NextEra מונה, וכל אחת מהן אומתה מול הדוח שהגישה היא עצמה. נמדד לפי מכפיל EBITDA, מהזולה ליקרה:

סימול	חברה	מכפיל EBITDA (שווי החברה ביחס לרווח התזרימי)
DUK	Duke Energy	11.4×
AEP	American Electric Power Company	11.7×
NEE	NextEra Energy	16.8×
D	Dominion Energy מחוץ להשוואה	ללא מכפיל

החציון של שתי האחרות הוא 11.6.‏ NextEra Energy היא היקרה מבין השלוש.

נתוני המתחרות מגיעים מספק נתונים חיצוני, ולכן עדיף להסתכל על פיזור הקבוצה ולא על זוג בודד.

היא היקרה ביותר במכפיל EBITDA, והפער הוא של NextEra עצמה: המתחרות קרובות זו לזו.

איפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

השוק חושב

עסקת Dominion היא ניצחון נקי שמעלה את הרווחים: 24 אנליסטים ממליצים לקנות מול אחד שממליץ למכור.

אנחנו חושבים

חמישה מושלים ושני סנאטורים מתנגדים לה, ו-NextEra עצמה הסכימה לקנס של 4.83 מיליארד דולר למקרה שהרגולטורים יסכלו אותה.

ההתנגדות באה לידי ביטוי בהצהרות של ממשלות מדינה ובמכתבים בסנאט, לא בסקירות האנליסטים: חמישה מושלים מניו אינגלנד מתנגדים לעסקה, ושני סנאטורים ביקשו מהרגולטור הפדרלי לדחות אותה. מניית NextEra ירדה בכ-5% עם הכרזת העסקה.

נטעה אם כל האישורים יתקבלו עד תחילת 2027 בלי תנאים שמייקרים את העסקה.

מה אומרים האנליסטים

המלצות חיוביות

64%

מתוך 22, 1 בספטמבר

לפני ארבעה חודשים

67%

מתוך 24, 1 במאי

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות

C23עובדהmedium confidence

Sell-side consensus is 24 buy, 11 hold, 1 sell ratings (Buy).

sourcePortfolio-management research pack (market tier: price,…secondary

2026-09-26editedRe-read in the refreshed pack: 24 buy, 11 hold, 1 sell, unchanged since the first pack.

current state · 2026-09-26written 2026-08-24

C10עובדהmedium confidence

Five New England governors, including Maine's Janet Mills, issued a joint statement opposing the merger, with Mills stating NextEra's proposal 'would concentrate too many energy generation and transmission assets in a company that has worked aggressively to suppress competition in Maine'; US Senators Ed Markey and Angus King separately urged FERC to reject the deal on antitrust and affordability grounds; a New Hampshire consumer advocate described himself as 'extremely skeptical.'

sourceOffice of Governor Janet Mills - statement on proposed…primary Utility Dive - Senator King urges FERC to reject…secondary

against this

The opposition is concentrated among New England officials whose states are not directly served by either company; the actual approval decisions rest with FERC, the NRC and the Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina commissions, none of which has yet ruled, so vocal opposition from outside the transaction's own footprint does not by itself predict the outcome.

current state · 2026-08-19written 2026-08-24

C09עובדהhigh confidence

The Merger Agreement's termination rights include an outside date of November 15, 2027, extendable to August 15, 2028 if Regulatory Clearances, the absence of a Burdensome Condition, or the absence of certain governmental orders are not yet satisfied; termination fees are $2.24B payable by Dominion to NextEra in Dominion-side break scenarios, $6.52B payable by NextEra to Dominion in NextEra-side break scenarios (including a superior-proposal termination), and specifically $4.83B payable by NextEra to Dominion where termination results from a failure of regulatory-related closing conditions.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

C11עובדהmedium confidence

On the merger announcement (2026-05-18), Dominion Energy's stock rose approximately 9-14% (sources vary) while NextEra Energy's stock fell approximately 5%.

sourceStocktwits - NextEra-Dominion deal market reactionsecondary

against this

A same-day acquirer stock decline is a common, unremarkable market reaction to an all-stock deal (dilution and integration-risk pricing) and is not on its own evidence the deal is value-destructive; but it is the market's own real-time verdict, not management's framing, so it is kept rather than absorbed into the bullish case.

historical · 2026-05-18written 2026-08-24

C08עובדהmedium confidence

Closing requires HSR Act clearance and regulatory clearances from FERC, the NRC, the Virginia SCC, the North Carolina Utilities Commission and the South Carolina PSC, each without a 'Burdensome Condition' as defined in the Merger Agreement; the companies filed for state and federal merger approvals on July 15, 2026 (Virginia's filing triggering a 180-day statutory review in SCC case PUR-2026-00112, with an evidentiary hearing set to begin November 17, 2026), and both shareholder approvals were obtained on September 3, 2026: NEE's share-issuance proposal passed with 99.47% of votes cast and Dominion's merger proposal with 671.3M votes for against 8.6M against. Virginia's consumer counsel in the Attorney General's office has asked the SCC to treat the September 14 benefits package as an amended application and restart the 180-day clock, which the SCC had not ruled on as of September 24, 2026; management continues to expect the transaction to close in the second half of 2027. The 21 October 2026 release says procedural schedules are set with hearings in Virginia in November and South Carolina in December and final orders expected in January 2027, the North Carolina Utilities Commission's expert witness hearings begin in February 2027, the federal reviews are underway, and the companies still expect to close in the second half of 2027. Testimony filed in Virginia on 2026-10-19 shows the governor's consultant and the SCC's own staff both saying the merger should not be approved as filed; staff suggested limits on Dominion's dividends and an independent board, and on the 21 October call chief executive John Ketchum said he stands behind the filing, will file rebuttal in about two weeks, and sees room for compromise on specific issues.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary NextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary NextEra Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the 2026 special…primary Dominion Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the special meetingprimary Virginia State Corporation Commission - Dominion-NextEra…primary Virginia Scope - AG asks SCC to restart Dominion-NextEra…secondary NextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary WHRO - Spanberger, SCC staff say no to Dominion/NextEra…secondary NextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary

against this

Five separate regulatory clearances is a high bar for a single timeline, and the Virginia review has already drawn unusual process: the SCC added in-person public hearings, and consumer counsel is asking for the clock to restart, which from September 14 would run to about March 2027 rather than January 2027; the Merger Agreement's own outside date (C09) extends to August 2028 specifically to accommodate the Regulatory Clearances not being satisfied on the H2 2027 timeline management states as its base case.
Virginia's governor and the SCC staff both testified on 2026-10-19 that the deal should not proceed as filed, with the staff citing the risk NextEra's unregulated businesses would put on the Virginia utility and proposing dividend limits and an independent board; this is the kind of testimony the pre-registered test named as pressure, though the three-judge panel need not follow it.

2026-09-24editedBoth shareholder votes passed on 2026-09-03 (NEE and Dominion Item 5.07 8-Ks); added the Virginia SCC docket schedule and the consumer counsel's request to restart the review clock.
2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21 gave the state hearing and order schedule; the Virginia clock ruling is still not reported.
2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: Virginia governor and staff testimony of 2026-10-19 opposes the deal as filed and proposes dividend limits and an independent board; management will rebut and sees room for compromise.

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

06

מה יכול להשתבש, ואיך נדע

הסיכונים

מחיר האישור. כל אחד מחמשת הרגולטורים עלול להציב תנאי כבד עד כדי כך שאחד הצדדים ירצה לפרוש מהעסקה.
קנס של 4.83 מיליארד דולר. אם הרגולטורים יחסמו את העסקה, NextEra תשלם ל-Dominion 4.83 מיליארד דולר.
חשמל בלי הרשת. בוני מרכזי נתונים שמייצרים חשמל בעצמם עלולים לוותר על החוזים שעליהם NEER מבססת את התוכנית.
אין עדיין לקוח גדול חתום. בפלורידה יש עניין של לקוחות גדולים בהיקף 21 ג'יגה-וואט, ועדיין לא נחתמה אף עסקה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C08עובדהmedium confidence

Closing requires HSR Act clearance and regulatory clearances from FERC, the NRC, the Virginia SCC, the North Carolina Utilities Commission and the South Carolina PSC, each without a 'Burdensome Condition' as defined in the Merger Agreement; the companies filed for state and federal merger approvals on July 15, 2026 (Virginia's filing triggering a 180-day statutory review in SCC case PUR-2026-00112, with an evidentiary hearing set to begin November 17, 2026), and both shareholder approvals were obtained on September 3, 2026: NEE's share-issuance proposal passed with 99.47% of votes cast and Dominion's merger proposal with 671.3M votes for against 8.6M against. Virginia's consumer counsel in the Attorney General's office has asked the SCC to treat the September 14 benefits package as an amended application and restart the 180-day clock, which the SCC had not ruled on as of September 24, 2026; management continues to expect the transaction to close in the second half of 2027. The 21 October 2026 release says procedural schedules are set with hearings in Virginia in November and South Carolina in December and final orders expected in January 2027, the North Carolina Utilities Commission's expert witness hearings begin in February 2027, the federal reviews are underway, and the companies still expect to close in the second half of 2027. Testimony filed in Virginia on 2026-10-19 shows the governor's consultant and the SCC's own staff both saying the merger should not be approved as filed; staff suggested limits on Dominion's dividends and an independent board, and on the 21 October call chief executive John Ketchum said he stands behind the filing, will file rebuttal in about two weeks, and sees room for compromise on specific issues.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary NextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary NextEra Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the 2026 special…primary Dominion Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the special meetingprimary Virginia State Corporation Commission - Dominion-NextEra…primary Virginia Scope - AG asks SCC to restart Dominion-NextEra…secondary NextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary WHRO - Spanberger, SCC staff say no to Dominion/NextEra…secondary NextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary

against this

Five separate regulatory clearances is a high bar for a single timeline, and the Virginia review has already drawn unusual process: the SCC added in-person public hearings, and consumer counsel is asking for the clock to restart, which from September 14 would run to about March 2027 rather than January 2027; the Merger Agreement's own outside date (C09) extends to August 2028 specifically to accommodate the Regulatory Clearances not being satisfied on the H2 2027 timeline management states as its base case.
Virginia's governor and the SCC staff both testified on 2026-10-19 that the deal should not proceed as filed, with the staff citing the risk NextEra's unregulated businesses would put on the Virginia utility and proposing dividend limits and an independent board; this is the kind of testimony the pre-registered test named as pressure, though the three-judge panel need not follow it.

2026-09-24editedBoth shareholder votes passed on 2026-09-03 (NEE and Dominion Item 5.07 8-Ks); added the Virginia SCC docket schedule and the consumer counsel's request to restart the review clock.
2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21 gave the state hearing and order schedule; the Virginia clock ruling is still not reported.
2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: Virginia governor and staff testimony of 2026-10-19 opposes the deal as filed and proposes dividend limits and an independent board; management will rebut and sees room for compromise.

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

C09עובדהhigh confidence

The Merger Agreement's termination rights include an outside date of November 15, 2027, extendable to August 15, 2028 if Regulatory Clearances, the absence of a Burdensome Condition, or the absence of certain governmental orders are not yet satisfied; termination fees are $2.24B payable by Dominion to NextEra in Dominion-side break scenarios, $6.52B payable by NextEra to Dominion in NextEra-side break scenarios (including a superior-proposal termination), and specifically $4.83B payable by NextEra to Dominion where termination results from a failure of regulatory-related closing conditions.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

C25עובדהmedium confidence

Behind-the-meter, off-grid data-center power is scaling nationally: nearly every hyperscaler is now pursuing behind-the-meter projects, and OpenAI and Anthropic alone have signed leases for more than 10 GW of behind-the-meter power.

sourceCleanview - Bypassing the Grid: How Data Center Developers…secondary

against this

Behind-the-meter capacity cannot substitute for FPL's regulated grid connection at all, and most of NEER's own book is already signed under long-term PPAs rather than exposed the way an uncontracted merchant generator's future pipeline is, so this threat bears more on NEER's future contracting pace than on NEE's existing earnings base.

current state · 2026-08-24written 2026-08-24

C15טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

FPL has approximately 21 GW of large-load interest, of which it is in advanced discussions on 12 GW, a portion of which it believes it could begin serving as soon as 2028; FPL continues to expect to announce at least one large-load transaction under its tariff by the end of the year, but as of the Q2 2026 release no such transaction is signed. On the 21 October 2026 call FPL's chief said the pipeline of over 20 GW of interest remains, that the first couple of gigawatts need only battery storage, and that the company remains confident of announcing a deal before the end of the year; no size was given and none is signed.

sourceNextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary NextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary

against this

'Advanced discussions' and 'continues to expect to announce' are management's own characterization of an unsigned pipeline; the same or similar language has now appeared across at least two consecutive quarterly releases without a signed transaction, which is worth watching for whether the pipeline is genuinely close or persistently optimistic.

2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: year-end announcement expectation restated aloud, still unsigned and unsized.

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

שאלות פתוחות

האם וירג'יניה תתחיל את הבדיקה מחדש, והאם הצוות של הרגולטור שם יציע תנאים מעבר להצעה של החברות עצמן.
מה גודל הזיכוי המוגדל ללקוחות בווירג'יניה? החברות לא אמרו.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C08עובדהmedium confidence

Closing requires HSR Act clearance and regulatory clearances from FERC, the NRC, the Virginia SCC, the North Carolina Utilities Commission and the South Carolina PSC, each without a 'Burdensome Condition' as defined in the Merger Agreement; the companies filed for state and federal merger approvals on July 15, 2026 (Virginia's filing triggering a 180-day statutory review in SCC case PUR-2026-00112, with an evidentiary hearing set to begin November 17, 2026), and both shareholder approvals were obtained on September 3, 2026: NEE's share-issuance proposal passed with 99.47% of votes cast and Dominion's merger proposal with 671.3M votes for against 8.6M against. Virginia's consumer counsel in the Attorney General's office has asked the SCC to treat the September 14 benefits package as an amended application and restart the 180-day clock, which the SCC had not ruled on as of September 24, 2026; management continues to expect the transaction to close in the second half of 2027. The 21 October 2026 release says procedural schedules are set with hearings in Virginia in November and South Carolina in December and final orders expected in January 2027, the North Carolina Utilities Commission's expert witness hearings begin in February 2027, the federal reviews are underway, and the companies still expect to close in the second half of 2027. Testimony filed in Virginia on 2026-10-19 shows the governor's consultant and the SCC's own staff both saying the merger should not be approved as filed; staff suggested limits on Dominion's dividends and an independent board, and on the 21 October call chief executive John Ketchum said he stands behind the filing, will file rebuttal in about two weeks, and sees room for compromise on specific issues.

sourceNextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025primary NextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary NextEra Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the 2026 special…primary Dominion Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the special meetingprimary Virginia State Corporation Commission - Dominion-NextEra…primary Virginia Scope - AG asks SCC to restart Dominion-NextEra…secondary NextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results…primary WHRO - Spanberger, SCC staff say no to Dominion/NextEra…secondary NextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript…primary

against this

Five separate regulatory clearances is a high bar for a single timeline, and the Virginia review has already drawn unusual process: the SCC added in-person public hearings, and consumer counsel is asking for the clock to restart, which from September 14 would run to about March 2027 rather than January 2027; the Merger Agreement's own outside date (C09) extends to August 2028 specifically to accommodate the Regulatory Clearances not being satisfied on the H2 2027 timeline management states as its base case.
Virginia's governor and the SCC staff both testified on 2026-10-19 that the deal should not proceed as filed, with the staff citing the risk NextEra's unregulated businesses would put on the Virginia utility and proposing dividend limits and an independent board; this is the kind of testimony the pre-registered test named as pressure, though the three-judge panel need not follow it.

2026-09-24editedBoth shareholder votes passed on 2026-09-03 (NEE and Dominion Item 5.07 8-Ks); added the Virginia SCC docket schedule and the consumer counsel's request to restart the review clock.
2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 release of 2026-10-21 gave the state hearing and order schedule; the Virginia clock ruling is still not reported.
2026-10-21editedQ3 2026 call read: Virginia governor and staff testimony of 2026-10-19 opposes the deal as filed and proposes dividend limits and an independent board; management will rebut and sees room for compromise.

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

C07טענת ההנהלהhigh confidence

The combined company proposed $2.25B in total bill credits for Dominion Energy's customers in Virginia (~79%, stated as $1.78B over two years), South Carolina (~17%) and North Carolina (~3%), paid over 24 months post-close; on September 14, 2026 the companies proposed extending Virginia's $10-a-month residential credit from two years to four by increasing the aggregate shareholder-funded Virginia credit (new total not disclosed) and asking the Virginia SCC to redirect data centers' share to residential customers, and added a $100M increase to the EnergyShare bill-assistance program through 2038, a $100M workforce fund, an up-to-$1B-a-year, five-year Virginia supplier spending program and a shareholder-funded co-headquarters tower in Richmond.

sourceNextEra Energy and Dominion Energy to Combine (8-K…primary NextEra Energy 8-K, Item 7.01: joint release and stakeholder…primary Dominion Energy 8-K, Item 7.01: joint investor presentation…primary

against this

The $2.25B bill-credit commitment is contingent on the deal closing, so it functions partly as a deal-marketing tool aimed at regulators and Dominion's own customer base rather than a benefit customers can rely on unless every approval is obtained; opponents (C10) argue the deal's scale costs customers more than the credits offset over time.
The September 14 enlargement was made 'in direct response to feedback from policymakers and other stakeholders' and its added cost to shareholders is not disclosed; Virginia's consumer counsel in the Attorney General's office has argued it puts 'a different deal on the table' and asked the SCC to restart its review clock (C08), so the concessions are still moving and their total is not yet a known number.

2026-09-24edited2026-09-14 8-K (Ex-99.1, Ex-99.2) and Dominion's Ex-99.2 of the same day: the Virginia residential credit was extended from two to four years with an undisclosed larger aggregate, and new shareholder-funded commitments were added.

forwardwritten 2026-08-24

מה ישנה את ההערכה שלנו

ניטרלית→אטרקטיביתהעסקה מושלמת והצמיחה נמשכת
נדרשים כל אלה:
- ○כל הרגולטורים מאשרים את העסקה בלי תנאים כבדים.במעקב שוטף
- ○הרווח המתואם ממשיך לצמוח ב-8% בשנה לפחות, ופלורידה חותמת על עסקה ראשונה עם לקוח גדול.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 17 בנובמבר
ניטרלית→לא אטרקטיביתהרגולטור או הצמיחה מאכזבים
מספיק אחד מאלה:
- ○רגולטור מציב תנאי כבד או מסרב, או שהעסקה קורסת ו-NextEra משלמת קנס של 4.83 מיליארד דולר.במעקב שוטף
- ○הפער במחיר מול חברות החשמל המתחרות מתרחב עוד, בלי צמיחה מהירה יותר שתצדיק אותו.ייבדק בדוח הבא, עד 17 בנובמבר

נטעה גם אם

צמיחת הרווח המתואם יורדת מתחת ל-8% בשנה, שנתיים ברציפות.
תוך 12 חודשים לא נחתמת בפלורידה אף עסקה עם לקוח גדול.

מה בהמשך

27 באוקטובר 2026 תוצאות הרבעון השלישי של 2026: הרווח המתואם למניה מול הקצה העליון של הטווח, 3.92 עד 4.02 דולר, תוספות לצבר של NEER, והאם FPL חתמה על העסקה הראשונה עם לקוח גדול, כפי שהבטיחה עד סוף השנה.

כל האירועים הצפויים

27 באוקטובר 2026 תוצאות הרבעון השלישי של 2026: הרווח המתואם למניה מול הקצה העליון של הטווח, 3.92 עד 4.02 דולר, תוספות לצבר של NEER, והאם FPL חתמה על העסקה הראשונה עם לקוח גדול, כפי שהבטיחה עד סוף השנה.
17 בנובמבר 2026 דיון ההוכחות ב-SCC של וירג'יניה על המיזוג עם Dominion: האם לוח הזמנים של הבדיקה יישמר ויאפשר סגירה במחצית השנייה של 2027, והאם בעדות של צוות הרגולטור יוצעו תנאים מעבר לחבילה של החברות עצמן.
דצמבר 2026 העסקה הראשונה של FPL עם לקוח גדול לפי התעריף שלה: האם 21 ג'יגה-וואט של עניין מצד לקוחות גדולים יתורגמו ללקוח חתום, הצעד שציון הפוטנציאל תלוי בו.
15 בנובמבר 2027 המועד האחרון לסגירת המיזוג: האם כל חמשת הרגולטורים אישרו את העסקה בלי תנאי מכביד (Burdensome Condition), או שהמועד נדחה לאוגוסט 2028 כשקנס הכישלון הרגולטורי של 4.83 מיליארד דולר על הכף.

מה קרה מאז

נכתבה

24 באוגוסט

המחיר בעת כתיבת התזה

$76.08

25 בספטמבר

21 באוקטוברדוחותהרווח עקף את התחזיות; צוות הרגולטור והמושל בווירג'יניה מתנגדים לעסקה בנוסחה הנוכחיתהרווח המתואם עלה ב-9.7% ותחזית החברה נשארה, אבל עדויות שהוגשו בווירג'יניה ב-19 באוקטובר מתנגדות לעסקת Dominion בנוסחה הנוכחית. הציון הניטרלי כבר כלל את הסיכון הזה, ולכן ההערכה לא השתנתה.
5 באוקטוברבדיקת התזההטיעון לטווח הארוך מופיע עכשיו מתחת לשורה התחתונההבעלים ביקש לנסות את הטיעון לטווח הארוך על חמש תזות בלי הימור, ורק אז להחליט לגבי השאר.
4 באוקטוברבדיקת התזההצ'קליסט של הבעלים: מקורות הכנסה, עלות הצמיחה, הנהלה, זרזיםהצ'קליסט של הבעלים מצא שהשיטה לא עוסקת במי שמנהל את החברה, בעלות הצמיחה, במקורות ההכנסה ובאירועים הצפויים. העדכון הזה משלים את ארבעת הנושאים מדוח הזימון לאסיפה (proxy) ומהדוחות לרשות.
1 באוקטוברחדשותNextEra תבנה 6.47 ג'יגה-וואט של תחנות גז בטקסס במסגרת השקעה אמריקנית-קוריאנית. ההערכה לא השתנתהNextEra ו-Related נבחרו לפתח את Project Star, קמפוס אנרגיה מבוסס גז בהיקף 6.47 ג'יגה-וואט בטקסס, בגיבוי קוריאה וארה״ב.
26 בספטמברבדיקת התזההמניה ירדה ב-9%, והפרמיה על פני חברות החשמל המתחרות הצטמצמה. ההערכה לא השתנתהבמחיר של 76.08 דולר NextEra עדיין יקרה מדיוק ומ-AEP ביחס לרווח התזרימי, אבל זולה מהן ביחס לרווחים. כל 15 המכירות של בעלי עניין השנה בוצעו לפי תוכנית מראש, ואף רגולטור עוד לא הכריע בעסקת Dominion.
24 בספטמברחדשותבעלי המניות אישרו את עסקת Dominion. ההערכה לא השתנתהשתי ההצבעות עברו ברוב גדול, אבל החברות נאלצו להרחיב את ההצעה בווירג'יניה, והיועץ לענייני צרכנים רוצה שהבדיקה תתחיל מחדש. אף רגולטור לא הציע תנאי, ועדיין צפויה סגירה ב-2027.
24 באוגוסטהתזה נכתבהניטרלית, ביטחון בינונינכתבה שלושה חודשים אחרי ש-NextEra סיכמה את רכישת Dominion, כשעד הסגירה ב-2027 צריך לעבור חמישה רגולטורים ולהתמודד עם התנגדות פוליטית מאורגנת.

מקורות 30

Where this came from

Sources - 30

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

S01primarycompany filing2026-02-13
NextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025
business description, FPL/NEER structure, competition language, nuclear PTC, filed operating income
backsC04C08C09C19C20C21C26C31C33C36C39C40C43C44
S02primarycompany filing2026-05-18
NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy to Combine (8-K Ex-99.1/Ex-99.2)
merger terms, combined-company scale and financial targets, bill credits, credit-rating benefits, capex/build-scale comparisons, peak-load forecasts
backsC04C05C06C07C27C28C29C30C32C33
S03primarycompany filing2026-07-24
NextEra Energy Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results (8-K Ex-99)
Q2/standalone results by segment, standalone guidance, merger regulatory-filing status and timeline, FPL large-load pipeline, NEER backlog, Duane Arnold status
backsC01C02C03C06C08C12C13C14C15C18
S04primarycompany filing2026-07-24
NextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-Q for Q2 2026
consolidated income statement, noncontrolling-interest allocation, balance sheet, debt schedule as of 2026-06-30
backsC14C35
S05secondaryvendor data2026-09-26
Portfolio-management research pack (vendor_fundamentals tier: filed-vs-vendor cross-check)
content/NEE/research-pack.json
the filed-versus-vendor valuation_cross_check (annual revenue and operating income gaps against SEC XBRL)
backsC19
S06secondaryvendor data2026-09-26
Portfolio-management research pack (vendor_fundamentals tier: peer_valuation cohort)
content/NEE/research-pack.json
the filed-competitor cohort valuation multiples (D, DUK, AEP)
backsC20C21
S07secondaryvendor data2026-09-26
Portfolio-management research pack (market tier: price, insiders, analysts, technicals)
content/NEE/research-pack.json
price/technicals snapshot, insider Form 4 aggregation, analyst consensus, market capitalisation and enterprise value
backsC22C23C24
S08secondaryvendor data2026-09-26
Portfolio-management research pack (segments block)
content/NEE/research-pack.json
confirmation that no XBRL segment concept is available for NEE
backsC36
S09primarycompany filing2026-01-27
NextEra Energy Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Financial Results (8-K Ex-99)
the original 2026 guidance issuance and FY2025 full-year results, cross-checked against the 2025 base figures used throughout this thesis
backsC12
S13secondaryindustry data2026
Cleanview - Bypassing the Grid: How Data Center Developers Are Building Their Own Power Plants
independent tracking of behind-the-meter/off-grid data-center generation, the substitute channel for NEER's contracted PPA model
Nearly every hyperscaler is pursuing behind-the-meter power projects-either directly or through partners.
backsC25
S15primarynews2026-08-19
Office of Governor Janet Mills - statement on proposed NextEra/Dominion acquisition
direct, primary-source quote of the Maine governor's opposition and its rationale (tied to NextEra's history opposing the NECEC transmission line)
NextEra's proposal to acquire Dominion Energy would concentrate too many energy generation and transmission assets in a company that has worked aggressively to suppress competition in Maine and block state priorities that would reduce energy costs.
backsC10
S16secondarynews2026-08-10
Utility Dive - Senator King urges FERC to reject NextEra-Dominion merger
independent confirmation of Senate opposition to the merger on antitrust/affordability grounds, corroborating the five-governor joint statement
backsC10
S17secondarynews2026-05-18
Stocktwits - NextEra-Dominion deal market reaction
independent report of the announcement-day stock reaction (Dominion up, NextEra down)
backsC11
S18primarynews2026-08-12
NextEra Energy - NextEra Energy, U.S. Department of Commerce and Government of Japan finalize commercial terms for up to 10 GW of gas-powered generation (press release)
the signed government-backed gas-generation agreement, the only large committed demand item beyond NEER's existing backlog
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NEE) today announced it has executed definitive agreements with the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Government of Japan to fund the development and operation of up to 10 gigawatts of natural gas-powered generation in Texas and Pennsylvania.
backsC16
S19primarynews2026-07-29
DOE Site in Western Kentucky Revitalized with Data Center Campus and Dedicated Energy Project (joint press release)
the not-yet-binding Brookfield/Kentucky data-center campus announcement and NextEra's specific generation role in it
Brookfield to lease land and develop and operate the data center campus at the Paducah Site. DOE also selected NextEra Energy to build and own the dedicated generation resources to power the campus, including up to 2 GW of natural gas and up to 2.6 GW of battery energy storage systems.
backsC17
S20secondaryindustry data2026-07-23
US Energy Information Administration - Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A (Average Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by State) US Energy Information Administration
independent, federal-government confirmation that Florida's electricity prices run meaningfully below the national average, external evidence for FPL's low-cost regulated-monopoly positioning
Florida: 15.17 cents per kilowatthour (residential, May 2026); U.S. Total: 18.44 cents per kilowatthour.
backsC38
S21primarycompany filing2026-09-03
NextEra Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the 2026 special meeting
NEE shareholder approval of the share issuance (99.47% of votes cast) and the authorised-share increase
backsC08
S22primarycompany filing2026-09-03
Dominion Energy 8-K, Item 5.07: results of the special meeting Dominion Energy, Inc.
Dominion shareholder approval of the merger proposal, as certified by the independent inspector of elections
backsC08
S23primarycompany filing2026-09-14
NextEra Energy 8-K, Item 7.01: joint release and stakeholder presentation on the enhanced Virginia benefits package (Ex-99.1, Ex-99.2)
the four-year Virginia residential credit, EnergyShare increase, workforce fund, supplier program and Richmond co-headquarters commitments; close still expected H2 2027
backsC07
S24primarycompany filing2026-09-14
Dominion Energy 8-K, Item 7.01: joint investor presentation on the Virginia package (Ex-99.2) Dominion Energy, Inc.
the existing commitment of $1.78B in Virginia bill credits over two years set beside the expanded commitments
backsC07
S25primarynews2026-09-08
NextEra Energy - U.S. Department of Energy Closes Up to $1.9 Billion Loan to Restart NextEra Energy's Duane Arnold Energy Center (press release)
the DOE loan closing for the Duane Arnold restart and the unchanged no-later-than-Q1-2029 target
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NEE) today announced that it and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), through its Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF), have reached a combined conditional commitment and financial close on a loan of up to $1.9 billion to support the restart of the company's Duane Arnold Energy Center in Iowa.
backsC18
S26primaryregulator2026-09-24
Virginia State Corporation Commission - Dominion-NextEra Merger case information (PUR-2026-00112) Virginia State Corporation Commission
the regulator's own procedural schedule for the Virginia review
Sept. 22: Oral argument on motion to compel ... Oct. 7: Local hearing in Newport News ... Oct. 9: Local hearing in Fairfax County ... Nov. 17: Evidentiary hearing begins
backsC08
S27secondarynews2026-09-21
Virginia Scope - AG asks SCC to restart Dominion-NextEra merger review clock
the consumer counsel's request that the September 14 testimony be treated as an amended application restarting the 180-day clock, the companies' response that it is limited supplemental testimony, and that the SCC had not ruled
The Joint Petitioners have put a different deal on the table.
backsC08
S28primarycompany filing2026-09-26
NextEra Energy Form 4 filings, year to 26 September 2026, read for the Rule 10b5-1 flag by scripts/insider_fetch.py
fifteen open-market sales of 277,753 shares and no purchases between October 2025 and March 2026, every one marked as made under a Rule 10b5-1 plan the largest of them paired with a same-day option exercise
backsC24
S29primarycompany filing2026-04-01
NextEra Energy proxy statement (DEF 14A), filed April 1, 2026, for the May 21, 2026 annual meeting
beneficial ownership as of March 23, 2026, the 5% holders, the CEO's tenure, the annual incentive and performance share award metrics, the 2025 payouts and the 2025 equity mix, and the 2026 changes to goal rigor
backsC40C41C42
S30primarycompany filing2023-02-17
NextEra Energy, Inc. Form 10-K for FY2022
the 2020 to 2022 cash flow statements: capital expenditures of FPL, NEER investments, nuclear fuel, equity issuance
backsC43C44
S31secondaryvendor data2026-10-04
Earnings calendar saved by the daily routine (FMP earnings rows), content/calendar/2026-10-04.json
content/calendar/2026-10-04.json
the expected Q3 2026 report date, 2026-10-27
backsC45
S32primarycompany filing2026-10-21
NextEra Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results (8-K Ex-99)
Q3 results by segment, unchanged guidance, merger state-review schedule, federal gas hubs signed, NEER backlog, Duane Arnold status
backsC08C12C13C16
S33secondarynews2026-10-19
WHRO - Spanberger, SCC staff say no to Dominion/NextEra merger in its current form (staff and governor testimony filed 2026-10-19)
the Virginia staff's and the governor's testimony of 2026-10-19: neither backs the merger as filed; staff suggested limits on Dominion's dividends and an independent board
the SCC’s own investigatory staff also said the deal should not go forward “because the proposed merger would expose [Dominion Energy Virginia] to the additional financial and business risks of NextEra’s unregulated, competitive businesses.”
backsC08
S34primarytranscript2026-10-21
NextEra Energy third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP, held 2026-10-21)
management's answers on the Virginia testimony, the data-centre pipeline, federal-hub economics, equity needs and capital recycling; eight analysts' questions
we remain confident with announcing a deal before the end of the year.
backsC08C15C16