Space Exploration Technologies

Sources - 33

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

1. S01primarycompany filing2026-06-12
   Final prospectus (424B4)
   the three segments, FY2023-FY2025 and Q1 2026 results, Starlink subscribers and ARPU by year, the Anthropic cloud agreement and its 90-day exit, launch record, the competition section, Musk's voting control and restricted Class B shares, the Terafab framework
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2. S02primarycompany filing2026-08-04
   Form 10-Q, Q2 2026
   segment results, customer concentration (Customer A 18.3%, Customer B 19.5%), backlog of $47.5B, debt and the Valor related-party leases, the EchoStar spectrum terms, the new cloud-services risk factor, cash flow, share counts on the cover
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3. S03primarycompany release2026-08-04
   Q2 2026 results release (8-K EX-99.1)
   segment capex, Starlink subscribers and ARPU by quarter, $14.1B of contracted cloud sales and its definition, $6B of Starshield awards, launch counts
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4. S04primarytranscript2026-08-04
   Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)

   data/cache/transcripts/SPCX-2026Q2.json
   management's $100B December run-rate, $1T revenue by 2030, capex of about $18B a quarter for two more quarters, 2 GW of compute by year end, V3 critical mass by Q2 2027; eight analysts' questions are a separate origin

   we've already contracted an additional $6.7 billion of cloud services revenue over a 6-month period that begins ramping starting in October of this year

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5. S05primarycompany filing2026-08-14
   Form 8-K, completion of the Cursor merger
   389,289,254 plus 1,752,426 Class A shares issued for Cursor, and 29.1M RSUs and 44.4M options assumed
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6. S06primaryindustry data2026-01
   BryceTech, Global Orbital Space Launches, Q4 2025 briefing BryceTech
   launches by provider and upmass by provider, counted by an analytics firm outside the company

   In Q4, SpaceX had the most orbital launches, followed by CASC

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7. S07secondarynews2026-04-10
   Via Satellite, 'BryceTech report shows SpaceX accounted for 50% of launches in 2025'
   BryceTech's full-year 2025 count: 165 SpaceX launches of 325, and 85% of satellites launched

   SpaceX dominates here, completing 165 orbital launches in 2025 - accounting for nearly 51% of the global total of launches.

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8. S08secondaryvendor data2026-10-01
   Research pack, market tier (FMP: last close 2026-09-30, daily closes since listing, analyst split)

   content/SPCX/research-pack.json
   the $150.86 close, the daily closes since the 2026-06-12 listing, the analyst split and its drift
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9. S09secondarynews2026-09-28
   NPR, 'SpaceX's Starship launches on first orbital mission from Texas'
   Flight 14 reached orbit, deployed 26 V3 satellites, lost one of six ship engines and was cut from 10 hours to 3

   During its flight, SpaceX deployed 26 Starlink V3 next-gen satellites into its constellation of thousands of internet satellites that provide broadband access worldwide.

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10. S10primarycompany release2026-07-30
    Amazon Q2 2026 results release (8-K EX-99.1) AMZN
    the size of Starlink's nearest rival constellation, and that its service begins this year

    Completed four additional launches for Amazon Leo, its low Earth orbit satellite network, bringing the total constellation to nearly 400 satellites in orbit

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11. S11secondarynews2026-03-31
    AeroTime, 'Delta picks Amazon over Starlink to power inflight Wi-Fi'
    a large airline choosing Amazon Leo rather than Starlink, for about 500 aircraft from 2028

    The initial Delta installation will see around half its fleet upgraded with advanced satellite connectivity starting in 2028.

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12. S12primarycompany filing2026-08-12
    CoreWeave Form 10-Q, Q2 2026 CRWV
    how a listed GPU-rental rival contracts: committed take-or-pay terms
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13. S13primarycompany filing2026-07-23
    Alphabet Form 10-Q, Q2 2026 GOOGL
    Google sells its own TPU computing systems to customers, and holds $94.1B of SpaceX shares
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14. S14primarycompany release2025-10-23
    Google Cloud press release, 'Anthropic to expand use of Google Cloud TPUs and services' GOOGL
    SpaceX's largest cloud customer has another, larger supplier of computing coming online the same year

    Anthropic will have access to well over a gigawatt of capacity coming online in 2026.

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15. S15primarygovernment data2025-11-17
    ITU, Facts and Figures 2025 (press release) ITU
    people offline worldwide, and the urban-rural gap (85% against 58% online), from the UN agency

    However, 2.2 billion people remain offline, down from a revised estimate of 2.3 billion in 2024.

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16. S16primarygovernment data2025-04-10
    IEA, Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook special report), executive summary IEA
    data centres used 415 TWh in 2024, growing about 12% a year since 2017, rising to about 945 TWh by 2030

    Data centre electricity consumption is set to more than double to around 945 TWh by 2030.

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17. S17secondarynews2026-06-05
    TechCrunch, 'Google will pay SpaceX $920M per month for compute' (reporting SpaceX's 2026-06-05 filing)
    Google's own description of the contract, $920M a month from October 2026 to June 2029, about 110,000 GPUs, and a 90-day exit for either side after 2026-12-31

    This is a short-term, timely agreement to ensure we have bridge capacity to meet surging customer demand for our agent platform, Gemini Enterprise, which has been even higher than we expected.

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18. S18primarygovernment data2026-09-15
    FINRA consolidated short interest (Rule 4560), via scripts/api/finra.py

    FINRA Consolidated Short Interest dataset
    short interest and its history since listing, days to cover, share of float
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19. S19primarycompany filing2026-10-01
    Form 4 filings, open-market rows read for the Rule 10b5-1 flag (scripts/insider_fetch.py) SpaceX insiders
    six open-market sales in the year, five of them (342,170 shares) Gwynne Shotwell's under a 10b5-1 plan
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20. S20primarycompany filing2026-08-10
    Rocket Lab Form 10-Q, Q2 2026 RKLB
    Neutron, the nearest listed medium-lift rival, has not flown; pad delivery targeted for Q4 2026
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21. S21secondarynews2026-08-25
    CBS News, 'Musk's SpaceX announces $100 billion plan for new spaceport in Louisiana'
    the $100B Starbase Louisiana plan, announced with the state; no SEC filing carries it

    Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with the first launch targeted for as early as 2029, according to state officials.

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22. S22secondarynews2026-09-29
    Electrek, 'Tesla wins SEC OK to auto-vote retail shares with board ahead of SpaceX merger'
    a Tesla merger is talked about and prepared for, and not agreed

    Tesla still hasn't scheduled its 2026 annual meeting, and Elon Musk keeps teasing a SpaceX merger

    read, but no claim rests on it
23. S23secondarynews2026-08-29
    Channel Insider and DevOps.com reports of OpenAI ending Cursor's model access
    the end date of 2026-11-12 and OpenAI's stated reason

    OpenAI notified SpaceX on August 28 that it plans to wind down its contract with Cursor

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24. S24primaryindustry data2026-04-02
    Synergy Research Group press release - Neocloud Market Forecast to Approach $400B by 2031, Driven by Surging AI Infrastructure Demand Synergy Research Group
    an independent market tracker's count of 2025 GPU-rental (neocloud) revenue and its forecast to 2031; read through ir_fetch

    New data from Synergy Research Group reveals that neocloud revenues are scaling at an unprecedented pace, reaching $9 billion in Q4-up 223% year-over-year-and exceeding $25 billion for full-year 2025. Driven by surging demand for AI infrastructure, Synergy forecasts the market will approach $400 billion by 2031, representing a sustained 58% compound annual growth rate.

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25. S25primaryindustry data2025-12
    ABI Research market data - Neocloud GPUaaS Revenue (MD-NEO-101, 4Q 2025) ABI Research
    a second analyst firm's 2025 base and 2030 forecast for GPU rental by neoclouds, on a different definition from Synergy's; read through ir_fetch

    ABI Research expects that by 2030, global revenue from GPUaaS offerings by neocloud providers are projected to reach nearly US$250 billion, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 43% (from US$42 in 2025).

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26. S26primaryindustry data2025-01-28
    RAND Corporation - AI's Power Requirements Under Exponential Growth (RR-A3572-1), summary page RAND Corporation
    an independent research institute's extrapolation of global AI data-centre power demand in gigawatts, the unit SpaceX reports its build in; read through ir_fetch

    Global AI data center power demand could reach 68 GW by 2027 and 327 GW by 2030, compared with total global data center capacity of just 88 GW in 2022.

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27. S27primarycompany filing2026-08-11
    CoreWeave second-quarter 2026 results release (Form 8-K EX-99.1) CRWV
    the largest listed GPU-rental rival's quarterly revenue, revenue backlog, active power and contracted power
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28. S28secondarynews2026-06-07
    SatNews - Analyst Projects Massive Subscription Growth for Starlink Ahead of Imminent SpaceX IPO (reporting TMF Associates' Tim Farrar)
    an independent satellite analyst's bull and bear Starlink subscriber counts for 2030, and the article's estimate that today's network supports about 20 million broadband subscribers; read through ir_fetch

    Farrar outlines a “Bull case” scenario in which Starlink could capture more than 45 million subscribers by the year 2030. Even the more pessimistic “Bear case” projection estimates that the satellite internet provider will secure a massive customer count exceeding 35 million by the end of the decade.

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29. S29tertiarynews2026-06-04
    Benzinga on Yahoo Finance - SpaceX's AI Revenue Could Eclipse Starlink: Goldman Forecasts 100-Fold Surge To $322B By 2030 (reporting the Financial Times)
    the IPO's lead underwriter's segment forecasts to 2030 as reported second-hand: AI $34.5B in 2027 and $322B in 2030, Starlink $144B and rockets $8.3B in 2030; the bank's note itself was not readable; read through ir_fetch

    According to a report by The Financial Times, Goldman expects SpaceX's total revenue to rise 25-fold to $474 billion by 2030, up from $18.7 billion in 2025.

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30. S30primarycompany filing2026-06-12
    Final prospectus (424B4): Management, Executive Compensation, Security Ownership and Shares Eligible for Future Sale
    executive officers and since-dates, the CD&A (no annual bonus, Musk's market-value and Mars or space-computing awards, the CFO's adjusted EBITDA options), beneficial ownership as of May 1, 2026, the lock-up release schedule, the FY2023-FY2025 income and cash flow statements
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31. S31primarycompany filing2026-10-20
    Q3 2026 earnings release, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K (Item 2.02)
    Q3 2026 segment revenue and operating income, Starlink consumer subscribers and revenue per subscriber, nameplate compute, capital spending by segment, the unaudited income statement, balance sheet and nine-month cash flow, the Cursor purchase terms and the 800 MHz spectrum agreement; unaudited, and the 10-Q and the call were not yet available
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32. S32primarytranscript2026-10-20
    SpaceX third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP, held 2026-10-20)
    fourth-quarter capital spending guide, the first-quarter 2027 revenue guide, backlog, the spot-rate rental approach, 2027 power targets, V3 satellite timing, Terafab dates, the Tesla special committees, and five analysts' questions

    we expect fourth quarter capital expenditures to now be in the range of $35 billion to $40 billion for this quarter.

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33. S33primarycompany filing2026-10-22
    SpaceX Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-09-30
    customer concentration, backlog and its timing, the 90-day termination term on cloud contracts, segment results, the Boring Company gain, non-cancelable commitments, cash and debt
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