AeroVironment
An American maker of small military drones, the Switchblade drone that dives onto its target, and the jammers, interceptors and lasers that shoot enemy drones down.
The scores
Growth3/4 →
Pro forma growth was 17% and the drone half grew 21% in Q1 fiscal 2027, but space shrinks and the guide is about 10%.
Business quality3/4 →
Fielded Switchblade and Puma fleets win follow-on and new Army selections, but rivals multiply and the space unit lost its anchor contract.
Financial position3/4 →
About $675M of cash against $747.5M of 0% notes due 2030, but operating cash was negative last year and capital spending is rising.
Execution record2/4 ↑
Three missed quarters, a cancelled space contract, a $240.7M write-down and a bonus plan missed on every measure; two beats since.
Per share capture2/4 →
BlueHalo was bought with shares that nearly doubled the count, and part of it was written down; the notes convert far above the price.
Potential2/4 →
Funded backlog covers this year, but the 2030 plan rests on a budget request not yet law and laser and reconnaissance franchises still uncontracted.
Risk profile3/4 →
About 85% of revenue is the US government, a disclosed and survivable dependence; a securities class action is pending.
Valuation3/4 ↑
About 22 times guided adjusted EBITDA needs most, not all, of the 2030 plan; it pays for the plan working, not for beating it.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Results, backlog and budget figures are filed or official, but the plan and the franchise sizes are management's and the request is not law.
If it works 0.9× · if it fails you keep about 60%.
The Verdict
We rate AeroVironment Neutral. The business is mixed: its drone half is a real incumbent growing about 20% on funded Army orders, but the space and cyber unit it bought in 2025 is shrinking and losing money, and last year the company missed its own plan. The price is fair: about right if most of management's 2030 plan works, with no cushion if it slips. As a bet it is priced for success: if its drone-stopping laser and jammers sell as management hopes, the shares are worth about what they are today; if not, shareholders keep about three-fifths.
The long caseCheap drones make costly missiles a poor answer, so armies are buying lasers and jammers; the first laser in US production could become a franchise.
The evidence under this - 9 claims
An Other Transaction Agreement's value is a ceiling over years, not funded backlog; the segment's funded backlog was $358M after it (C09).
- The E-HEL contract is for dozens of systems over several years (C24), well short of $0.5B a year on its own.
- The Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segment shrank 21% in the same quarter (C05).
A request is not an appropriation: the $39.2B mandatory part needs separate legislation, and management names the timing of final approval as an uncertainty (C29).
Adjusted EBITDA leaves out about $40M a year of stock pay and all acquisition amortisation; on GAAP earnings the multiple is several hundred times.
At an exit multiple of 18 the requirement falls to about $530M, 74% of the target; the answer moves with a multiple nobody can observe today.
The company
Its small drones, Puma, Raven and P550, let soldiers see over the next hill. Switchblade is a drone with a warhead: it circles, the operator picks a target on the video, and it dives onto it. Against enemy drones it sells Titan, which jams their radio links, an interceptor drone and LOCUST, a laser on a truck.
The buyers are the US Army and allied forces, who would otherwise use artillery, costly missiles or rivals such as Anduril. The Pentagon now wants small drones bought like ammunition.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
An Other Transaction Agreement's value is a ceiling over years, not funded backlog; the segment's funded backlog was $358M after it (C09).
Consumable drones favour the cheapest qualified maker; the memo also promises to approve hundreds of American products, which widens the field against incumbents.
How it makes money
It sells hardware on fixed-price orders, mostly to the US government, which is about 85% of sales. Precision strike and defence, Switchblade and the counter-drone systems, was 43% of last year's sales; small drones 18%; cyber services 17%; space and lasers 14%.
Each fielded system brings repeat orders, spares and training. Almost all the profit now comes from the drone half.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (fiscal 2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Precision strike and defence | 43% | Switchblade loitering munitions, the Red Dragon one-way attack drone, Titan and Freedom Eagle-1 counter-drone systems and electronic warfare, sold mostly on fixed-price orders. |
| Uncrewed aircraft | 18% | Puma, Raven, P550 and JUMP 20 drones with their controllers, spares and training. |
| Cyber and mission solutions | 17% | Cyber, intelligence and engineering services to US agencies, mostly cost-plus and time-and-materials. |
| Space and directed energy | 14% | Space hardware such as antennas and the LOCUST laser. |
| Other | 7% | Undersea and ground robots, NASA work and other products. |
Who runs it
Wahid Nawabi has run the company since 2016 and grew it about fivefold, mostly by buying companies with shares. The space deal that followed brought a cancelled contract and a write-down. The finance chief, Sean Woodward, took over in May 2026 after sixteen years inside.
Directors and officers own under 1%; BlueHalo's former owner holds about a quarter. Bonuses and share awards pay on sales, orders and adjusted profit, with nothing tied to profit per share.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
Units that already fly its drones train on one family of controllers and keep its spares, so replacing them means retraining. That is why follow-on orders keep coming: in 2026 the Army picked the P550 for long-range scouting, ordered more Switchblade 600 and chose LOCUST for its first production laser contract.
A rival, Red Cat, even builds its attack drones to launch from the P550. The weak spot is that the Pentagon wants many new makers approved, and a cheap drone for a new mission needs no retraining.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
An Other Transaction Agreement's value is a ceiling over years, not funded backlog; the segment's funded backlog was $358M after it (C09).
Consumable drones favour the cheapest qualified maker; the memo also promises to approve hundreds of American products, which widens the field against incumbents.
The threat
Anduril, a private company, competes in almost every line. The big defence groups sell interceptors, lasers and jammers. Smaller listed makers such as Redwire and Red Cat sell small drones. In space, the cancelled antenna contract showed a single buyer decision can erase a programme overnight.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
The rivals: LMT, RTX, NOC, LHX, TDY, ESLT, RDW, RCAT, BA, CACI, ONDS, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | Where it competes | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private | Anduril Industries, a private defence company with drones, loitering munitions, counter-drone systems and its own command softwarePriced against it: Private | Autonomous Systems: small and medium drones, Switchblade loitering munitions and electronic warfare | On sale | Private |
| Private | Shield AI, a private maker of autonomous drones and pilot softwarePriced against it: Private | Autonomous Systems: small and medium drones, Switchblade loitering munitions and electronic warfare | On sale | Private |
| LMT · RTX · NOC · LHX | The large primes: Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman and L3Harris, with interceptors, lasers and electronic warfarePriced against it: One segment only | Counter-drone systems | On sale | One segment only |
| TDY · ESLT · RDW · RCAT | Teledyne FLIR, Elbit, Redwire and Red Cat, listed makers of small drones and loitering munitionsPriced against it: Yes | Autonomous Systems: small and medium drones, Switchblade loitering munitions and electronic warfare | On sale | Yes |
| BA · LMT · LHX · CACI | Boeing, Lockheed Martin and L3Harris in space hardware, and CACI in cyber and mission servicesPriced against it: One segment only | Space, Cyber and Directed Energy: space hardware, and cyber and mission services | On sale | One segment only |
| ONDS | OndasPriced against it: Yes | - | On sale | Yes |
How big it could get
How big this could get
The Pentagon has asked for $54.0B for drones and other uncrewed systems in fiscal 2027, against $13.4B requested a year earlier, and $20.6B for counter-drone systems, against $3.9B passed for fiscal 2026. That is many times AeroVironment's own sales.
Two cautions: it is a request, not a law, and it covers every size of drone in the air and at sea. Nobody publishes how much is for the kinds AeroVironment makes.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
A request is not an appropriation: the $39.2B mandatory part needs separate legislation, and management names the timing of final approval as an uncertainty (C29).
Who has signed
Orders already paid for by customers reached a record $1.5B in August 2026. Beyond that sit framework contracts with no fixed volume: the laser contract for dozens of LOCUST systems, and ceiling contracts for Titan and Switchblade that the Army orders against when it chooses.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
An Other Transaction Agreement's value is a ceiling over years, not funded backlog; the segment's funded backlog was $358M after it (C09).
The results
The numbers
Sales grew 141% in the year to Apr 2026, faster than the 14% in the year before.
Operating margin is −16%, up from −33% in the year to Apr 2023.
Running costs take 41¢ of each sales dollar, up from 34¢ in the year to Apr 2022.
Shareholders' money lost 10% a year, down from −0.7% in the year to Apr 2022.
It used $141M of cash in the latest year, so the $632M it holds lasts about 4.5 years at that pace.
It owes $96.7M more than the cash it holds, and its operations bring in no cash to repay it.
The share count rose 99% in 4.0 years, and pay in shares costs 1.9% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-10. Fiscal years end in April.
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2025 | Apr 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | |||||
| Sales | $446M | $541M | $717M | $821M | $1.98B |
| Sales growth | +13% | +21% | +33% | +14% | +141% |
| Profit | |||||
| Gross margin | 32% | 32% | 40% | 39% | 25% |
| Operating margin | −2.2% | −33% | 10% | 5.0% | −16% |
| Net margin | −0.9% | −33% | 8.3% | 5.3% | −13% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | |||||
| Research and development | 12% | 12% | 14% | 12% | 6.5% |
| Sales and marketing | - | - | 15% | 19% | 16% |
| Pay in shares | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| Capital spending | 5.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% |
| Cash | |||||
| Cash from operations | −$9.62M | $11.4M | $15.3M | −$1.32M | −$78.4M |
| Free cash flow | −$31.9M | −$3.47M | −$7.69M | −$20.9M | −$141M |
| Balance sheet | |||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $102M | $133M | $73.3M | $40.9M | $632M |
| Debt | $188M | $133M | $27.1M | $30.0M | $729M |
| Net cash | −$85.9M | −$545K | $46.2M | $10.9M | −$96.7M |
| Returns and shares | |||||
| Return on capital | - | - | 9.1% | 4.5% | - |
| Shares (diluted) | 24.7M | 25.0M | 27.3M | 28.2M | 49.1M |
What growth costs
Growth has been getting more expensive. The acquisition added overhead and a large non-cash charge for the value of what was bought, so operating profit turned to a loss even before the write-down. This year the company is also spending heavily on new plants ahead of orders, which keeps cash flow below zero.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Acquisition amortisation is a non-cash charge; on adjusted EBITDA the margin held near 14%.
The vendor's annual operating income of minus $70.3M excludes the impairment; the filed figure is minus $311.0M. Both are the company's own numbers on two definitions.
- Fiscal 2026's bonus goals were missed on revenue, orders, adjusted EBITDA and cash conversion (C34), so last year's internal plan was not met.
- The first quarter grew 6%, so the year needs about 12% growth across the remaining three quarters.
Management guides fiscal 2027 free cash flow only slightly negative while capital spending is 12% to 14% of revenue (C10), so operating cash should turn positive.
The last report (9 Sep)
Quarter ended August 2026, filed figures.
The quarter to 1 August 2026 showed the company's two halves pulling apart. Drones and counter-drone systems grew 21%, with small drones up 71%, and earned all the profit. Space and cyber fell 21% and lost money before interest and amortisation.
Funded orders rose to a record $1.5B and management held its full-year guide. The catch is the calendar: the guide puts 55% of the year's sales in the second half, so most of the year is still to come.
What it did to the thesisIt supported the drone half, which grew fast on funded orders, and held the guide. It weakened the case for the acquired space unit, still shrinking and unprofitable. It left open whether the back-loaded year arrives.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures. The company has restated its own history, so a quarter either side of the restatement may describe a different business; n/c marks one that does not compare.
Earnings per share $0.59 against $0.22 expected; $-0.10 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
- Fiscal 2026's bonus goals were missed on revenue, orders, adjusted EBITDA and cash conversion (C34), so last year's internal plan was not met.
- The first quarter grew 6%, so the year needs about 12% growth across the remaining three quarters.
What management did with the money
Insiders in 2026Q3: 24 purchases and 13 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Fair. The price pays for most of management's 2030 plan working on time, but not for the plan being beaten.
The shares are near their lowest in a year after three missed quarters and the space cancellation. The two quarters since have beaten forecasts, and the Pentagon's drone request is the largest yet.
The test is close. The fiscal year began on 1 October without a full budget, and the company reports again on 8 December, when the back-loaded year has to start showing.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
A request is not an appropriation: the $39.2B mandatory part needs separate legislation, and management names the timing of final approval as an uncertainty (C29).
The fiscal year began on 1 October 2026; a stopgap funding law delays new programme starts, and the guidance needs about 55% of revenue in the second half (C10).
- Fiscal 2026's bonus goals were missed on revenue, orders, adjusted EBITDA and cash conversion (C34), so last year's internal plan was not met.
- The first quarter grew 6%, so the year needs about 12% growth across the remaining three quarters.
How we read the multiple
A buyer pays about 22 times the profit before interest, tax and amortisation guided for this year. That profit leaves out stock pay and acquisition charges, so what shareholders keep is far smaller.
- The whole company, debt included and cash taken off, is worth about $7.0B.
- Management targets about $712M of that profit for fiscal 2030, at the middle of its range.
- Valued at 15 times in 2030 and discounted at 9% a year, today's price needs about $630M.
- That is about 89% of the target.
Against its own history. The trailing figures are distorted by the write-down; on sales the shares sit well below their own normal, which partly reflects a weaker mix, not only a lower price.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Adjusted EBITDA leaves out about $40M a year of stock pay and all acquisition amortisation; on GAAP earnings the multiple is several hundred times.
At an exit multiple of 18 the requirement falls to about $530M, 74% of the target; the answer moves with a multiple nobody can observe today.
- Fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin was 14% and the guided fiscal 2027 margin is about 14.5%, so the target needs four to six points more.
- Analysts' fiscal 2030 revenue of $3.64B rests on three estimates (C20).
- Fiscal 2026's bonus goals were missed on revenue, orders, adjusted EBITDA and cash conversion (C34), so last year's internal plan was not met.
- The first quarter grew 6%, so the year needs about 12% growth across the remaining three quarters.
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of sales, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | company value for each $1 of sales |
|---|---|---|
| AVAV | AeroVironment | 3.8× |
| RDW | Redwire | 4.3× |
| RCAT | Red Cat Holdings | 9.1× |
| ONDS | Ondas Holdings | 18.3× |
The middle of the other 3 is 9.1. AeroVironment, Inc. is cheapest of 4.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
The rivals are smaller, losing money and priced on hope, so the discount on sales says more about them than that this company is cheap.
Also checked and set aside: Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (a substitute, not the same product).
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Anduril Industries, Inc., Shield AI, Inc., Quantum-Systems, Inc., Sierra Nevada Corporation, Epirus, Inc., DroneShield Limited, Israel Aerospace Industries, UVision Air Ltd.
The bet: what it pays if it works
The bet is on counter-drone: the LOCUST laser, the Titan jammers and the Freedom Eagle-1 interceptor. The company reports no sales for them, so the rest of the company is counted separately, at the price this thesis would pay for it once grown.
If the laser becomes the yearly franchise management describes, the shares end up worth a little less than today, because the price already pays for most of that. If counter-drone stays small, shareholders keep about three-fifths of today's value.
| Counter-drone systems EBITDA in two to three years | $100M blocks of counter-drone sales a year needed | At the stated multiple |
|---|---|---|
| $38.00M | about 2 at 100% kept | 0.7× |
| $95.00M (the big win) | about 5 at 100% kept | 0.9× |
| $190.00M | about 10 at 100% kept | 1.2× |
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $468.07M of Counter-drone systems EBITDA (about 25 $100M blocks of counter-drone sales a year); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $1.49B of Counter-drone systems EBITDA (about 79 $100M blocks of counter-drone sales a year), at the same multiple.
Each row is Counter-drone systems alone, plus the rest of the company (Drones, munitions, space and cyber: everything outside counter-drone) counted at about $4.72B.
The steps it has to take
- Done Army production contract for LOCUST lasers under the E-HEL programme
- Done A first international LOCUST order
- Done A sole-source Titan ceiling contract with a first order
- Not started Congress appropriates the fiscal 2027 counter-drone request due 2027-03
- In progress Salt Lake City plant opens for laser and interceptor production due 2027-06
- Not started Counter-drone or laser revenue disclosed as its own figure due 2027-06
- Not started Counter-drone sales near $500M a year due 2029-04
The detail behind the label
The evidence under this - 7 claims
- The E-HEL contract is for dozens of systems over several years (C24), well short of $0.5B a year on its own.
- The Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segment shrank 21% in the same quarter (C05).
An Other Transaction Agreement's value is a ceiling over years, not funded backlog; the segment's funded backlog was $358M after it (C09).
A request is not an appropriation: the $39.2B mandatory part needs separate legislation, and management names the timing of final approval as an uncertainty (C29).
- Fiscal 2026's bonus goals were missed on revenue, orders, adjusted EBITDA and cash conversion (C34), so last year's internal plan was not met.
- The first quarter grew 6%, so the year needs about 12% growth across the remaining three quarters.
At an exit multiple of 18 the requirement falls to about $530M, 74% of the target; the answer moves with a multiple nobody can observe today.
Where we disagree with the market
Either a broken drone story that keeps missing, or a cheap way to own a Pentagon spending surge.
Both are half right: the drone half is a funded winner, the space half a shrinking drag, and the price already pays for most of the plan.
Bulls look at the budget request, bears at the misses. The segment figures show each side is describing a different half of the same company.
The evidence against us: if Congress passes most of the request and the laser ramps, the space unit could stop shrinking and the price would look low.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 6 claims
A request is not an appropriation: the $39.2B mandatory part needs separate legislation, and management names the timing of final approval as an uncertainty (C29).
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- The budget arrives late. The fiscal year began without a full budget, and a long stopgap would delay new orders in a year that needs 55% of sales in its second half.
- Space keeps shrinking. The acquired unit fell 21% and lost money; another lost contract could bring a second write-down of what was paid for it.
- New makers win the volume. The Pentagon wants hundreds of approved American drones, which lets cheaper rivals compete for the consumable orders.
- A missed plan, again. Last year the company missed its own goals on sales, orders, profit and cash.
- A large holder sells. BlueHalo's former owner holds about a quarter of the shares and can sell once its lock-up ends.
- A shareholder lawsuit. A class action claims investors were misled about the cancelled space contract.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
A request is not an appropriation: the $39.2B mandatory part needs separate legislation, and management names the timing of final approval as an uncertainty (C29).
The fiscal year began on 1 October 2026; a stopgap funding law delays new programme starts, and the guidance needs about 55% of revenue in the second half (C10).
Consumable drones favour the cheapest qualified maker; the memo also promises to approve hundreds of American products, which widens the field against incumbents.
What we still do not know
- How much of the $54.0B drone request Congress actually passes, and when.
- Whether the laser contract turns into large paid orders within fiscal 2027.
- What a Switchblade or a LOCUST costs the Army, against rivals' prices.
- When BlueHalo's former owner may sell, and whether it plans to.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
A request is not an appropriation: the $39.2B mandatory part needs separate legislation, and management names the timing of final approval as an uncertainty (C29).
An Other Transaction Agreement's value is a ceiling over years, not funded backlog; the segment's funded backlog was $358M after it (C09).
- The E-HEL contract is for dozens of systems over several years (C24), well short of $0.5B a year on its own.
- The Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segment shrank 21% in the same quarter (C05).
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveA price that pays for half the plan
It needs:
- ○The company's value falls to 15 times this year's guided profit before interest, tax and amortisation.about ≈$91.81 today, 33% below the last close
- Neutral→AttractiveBoth halves deliver
It needs all of:
- ○Space, cyber and lasers grow on a year earlier in any quarter of fiscal 2027.watched as it happens
- ○Funded orders reach $1.8B or more while the full-year guide holds.checked at the next results, due by 8 Dec
- Neutral→UnattractiveThe plan breaks
It needs any of:
- ○The company cuts its fiscal 2027 sales guide below $2.125B.watched as it happens
- ○The drone half grows less than 10% on a year earlier in a quarter.checked at the next results, due by 8 Dec
We would also be wrong if
- Funded orders fall below $1.2B at any quarter end in fiscal 2027.
- Large paid laser orders, above $200M, would strengthen the case.
What is coming
- 8 December 2026 Q2 fiscal 2027 results: Whether revenue keeps pace with the 45% first-half weighting, whether space and cyber stop falling, and funded backlog against $1.5B.
Every dated event ahead
- 8 December 2026 Q2 fiscal 2027 results: Whether revenue keeps pace with the 45% first-half weighting, whether space and cyber stop falling, and funded backlog against $1.5B.
- March 2027 Fiscal 2027 defence appropriation: How much of the $54.0B autonomous and $20.6B counter-drone request becomes law, and whether the mandatory part passes.
- 10 March 2027 Q3 fiscal 2027 results: Whether LOCUST production orders reach funded backlog and the guidance survives into the heavy second half.
Since we wrote this
- 11 OctThesis reviewCounter-drone lifted out as an early business, with a bet on itThe cheap-drones Futures theory names AeroVironment for its drones and for the systems that stop them, and the second line reports no revenue of its own.
- 10 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionA funded drone incumbent tied to a shrinking space unit, at a price that needs most of the 2030 plan.
Also checked 1 time with nothing new to act on.
Sources 20
Sources - 20
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-06-29business, products, operating groups, revenue by group, contract type and customer, the US Army share, competitors, the SCAR termination and goodwill impairment, debt, the BlueHalo shares and lock-up, risk factors, employees and patentsbacksC01C02C03C07C08C12C13C16C17C30C32C33C39C41
- S02primarycompany filing2026-06-29fiscal 2026 results, the GAAP to adjusted reconciliation, bookings and backlog, and fiscal 2027 guidance as first issuedbacksC07C21
- S03primarycompany filing2026-06-29pro forma growth by operating group for fiscal 2026backsC04
- S04primarycompany filing2026-09-09first-quarter revenue, segment results, the GAAP to adjusted reconciliation, backlog and the reaffirmed fiscal 2027 guidancebacksC05C06C09C10C20C21C36
- S05primarycompany filing2026-09-09revenue by operating group, segment adjusted EBITDA, backlog by segment, the quarter's awards and the guidance detailbacksC05C06C09C10C25C40
- S06primarycompany filing2026-09-10the August 2026 balance sheet, cash flows, convertible note terms, share count, unfunded backlog and the securities class actionbacksC08C09C14C15C16C36C38C41
- S07primarytranscript2026-09-09Fiscal 2027 first quarter earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-09-09data/cache/transcripts/AVAV-2027Q1.jsonmanagement on LOCUST, the long-range reconnaissance programme, capacity, budget timing and the guidance
It will not surprise me in about a year or so that this is a significant franchise for the company, well over $0.5 billion plus a year franchise.
backsC10C24C25C26C29C40 - S08primarycompany release2026-07-08the fiscal 2030 revenue, R&D and adjusted EBITDA margin targets
$3.5 - $4.0 billion in revenue, a 15% - 20% organic CAGR, driven by market expansion and leadership
backsC11C37 - S09primarycompany release2026-09-02the E-HEL award value, the contract form and what it delivers
today announced it has been awarded a landmark contract valued at $464.8 million by the U.S. Army Portfolio Acquisition Executive for Fires (PAE Fires) program office for the Enduring-High Energy Laser (E-HEL) program.
backsC24 - S10primarycompany filing2026-08-14beneficial ownership, the executive officers, the fiscal 2026 bonus metrics and payout, and the performance share termsbacksC17C34C35
- S11primaryregulator2026-05-01Overview: FY 2027 Department of War budget request (Pentagon comptroller) US Department of War, Office of the Under Secretary (Comptroller)the fiscal 2027 request for autonomous systems
$54.0 billion for autonomous and remotely operated systems across air, land, and above and below the sea, including $39.2 billion associated with the Drone Dominance mandatory funding request
backsC27 - S12primaryregulator2026-05-01Overview: FY 2027 Department of War budget request (Pentagon comptroller), counter-drone section US Department of War, Office of the Under Secretary (Comptroller)the fiscal 2027 request against the fiscal 2026 enacted level for counter-drone systems
The FY 2027 President’s Budget includes $20.6 billion, an increase of $16.6 billion, or 424 percent over the FY 2026 enacted level of $3.9 billion
backsC27 - S13primaryregulator2025-07-01Defense Budget Overview, Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Request (Pentagon comptroller) US Department of Defense, Office of the Under Secretary (Comptroller)the fiscal 2026 request for autonomous systems
$13.4 billion for autonomous and remotely operated systems across air, land, and above and below the sea
backsC27 - S14primaryregulator2025-07-10Secretary of Defense memorandum: Unleashing U.S. Military Drone Dominance (copy hosted by Fox News) US Secretary of Defensethe policy of treating small drones as consumables and equipping every squad
Small UAS resemble munitions more than high-end airplanes. They should be cheap, rapidly replaceable, and categorized as consumable.
backsC28 - S15primarycompany filing2026-03-19Red Cat Holdings Form 10-K for 2025 Red Cat Holdings, Inc.a rival building its FPV drones to launch from AeroVironment's P550, and naming AeroVironment among competitors
We announced a development roadmap with AeroVironment, Inc. ("AV") (NASDAQ: AVAV) to enable our FANG™ FPV drones to be deployed as a payload from AV’s P550™ all-electric Group 2 eVTOL UAS.
backsC31 - S16primarycompany filing2026-02-27Redwire Corporation Form 10-K for 2025 Redwire Corporationa rival naming AeroVironment, Insitu and Shield AI as its drone competitors
We compete domestically and internationally against space systems components providers, including Airbus, Sodern, Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (a segment of Rocket Labs), UAS providers, including AeroVironment, Inc., Insitu, A Boeing Company, and Shield AI
backsC30 - S17secondaryvendor data2026-10-10Research pack frozen beside this thesis, 2026-10-10content/AVAV/research-pack.jsonthe 9 October close, the 252-day return and its decomposition, estimates, the rating split and its history, price-target drift, earnings history, insider rows and FINRA short interestbacksC18C19C20C21C22C36C37
- S18primarycompany filing2026-10-10AeroVironment XBRL company facts, fiscal 2021 to 2026, frozen as content/AVAV/financials.jsoncontent/AVAV/financials.jsonannual revenue, gross profit, R&D, selling and admin, operating income, cash flows and diluted sharesbacksC03C15C16C19C33C39
- S19secondaryvendor data2026-10-10daily closes around each results date and the investor daybacksC23
- S20primaryregulator2025-03-10Ukraine Ministry of Defence: plan to procure 4.5 million FPV drones in 2025 Ministry of Defence of Ukrainehow many drones Ukraine bought in 2024
In 2023, the Ministry of Defence procured thousands of drones, whereas by the end of 2024, we, together with the State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine, procured over 1.5 million drones
backsC28