Ondas Holdings
A Florida-listed buyer of Israeli and American defence-drone makers: counter-drone systems, surveillance aircraft and munition parts, assembled in a year mostly with new shares.
The scores
Growth3/4 ↑
Revenue grew thirteenfold in a year, but $70.0M of June's $77.5M increase was acquired and no organic rate is filed.
Business quality2/4 →
Qualified products bought rather than built, a gross margin in the low forties, and larger rivals selling the same jobs.
Financial position3/4 ↓
About $0.96B of cash and almost no debt, but the business burns about $275M a year and nothing is funded from operations.
Execution record2/4 →
The 2026 guide was rebuilt by acquisitions, new adjusted measures arrived, and losses widened as revenue grew.
Per share capture1/4 ↓
Shares up about eightfold since 2024, more due in January and in earn-outs, and 196.3M warrants outstanding.
Potential2/4 ↑
A large, growing budget, but the step to consensus depends on unsigned pipeline and on others' spending decisions.
Risk profile3/4 →
One unnamed customer was 40% of June's revenue, and Israel 45%; survivable, but a single dependency.
Valuation2/4 →
The price assumes 2026's guide is delivered in full and growth continues beyond it, for a business losing money.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Revenue, deals, dilution and cash are filed; organic growth, backlog and DZYNE's forecasts are management's alone.
If it works 1.1× · if it fails you keep up to 64%.
The Verdict
We rate Ondas Unattractive. The business is mixed: it sells things armies are now buying in volume, but almost all of its growth was bought, paid for largely with new shares, and it loses more money as it grows. The price is full, already paying for this year's promised sales valued like its rivals. As a bet it is Fragile: even if sales reach next year's forecast, valued like AeroVironment it would be worth about today's price, and if growth stalls, shareholders keep perhaps two-thirds of what they hold.
The long caseIf armies keep moving money to cheap drones and defences against them, a supplier holding many qualified products could grow into a large business.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
The vendor's company value is about $3.55B on a stale share count and cash alone, and the 45.0M DZYNE shares due in January add about $0.33B more (C14, S13).
Contingent earn-outs, payable partly in cash, and further deals would reduce the cash, and a stalled acquirer rarely keeps a peer multiple (C40, C13).
The company
Ondas makes and sells equipment for armies and security forces: systems that find hostile drones and take them over or shoot them down, long-endurance surveillance drones, and the electronics inside loitering munitions, the small drones that fly to a target and strike it.
Almost all of it came by acquisition. In 2026 alone Ondas bought at least twelve companies, among them DZYNE in America and Sentrycs and Omnisys in Israel. Its largest contract is a US Army award for a munition designed by another company, UVision.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
How it makes money
Most money comes from selling equipment, about half of Q2 2026's sales, with the rest from flying and maintaining it as a service and from paid development work. One unnamed customer, almost certainly in Israel, took 40% of the quarter.
Each sales dollar left about 43 cents after the cost of making the product, far too little to cover a cost base that more than doubled sales.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (Q2 2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Product | 51.9% | Drones, counter-drone systems, munition parts and ground robots, booked on delivery. |
| Service | 28.2% | Surveillance and inspection flown as a service, support and maintenance, booked over time. |
| Development | 20.0% | Paid engineering and development work for defence customers, booked as it progresses. |
Who runs it
Eric Brock has been chairman and chief executive since 2018 and built today's company by buying others. Neil Laird has run the finances since June 2025.
Officers and directors own under 2%. Brock was paid $426,066 for 2025, mostly salary, and sold about 2.4M shares the day after a large grant vested in June, outside any pre-set plan. No insider has bought shares on the market in the past year.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Nothing in the pay plan or the filings ties management's reward to per-share results (S06).
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
Armies buy only from suppliers they have tested and trust. US law bars government agencies from Chinese-made drones, and munition parts must pass long safety approval. Ondas bought companies that had already cleared those gates.
That is a ticket to bid, not a lock on the buyer. The clearest outside sign is a no-competition Army award, won by Mistral before Ondas owned it, and the margin so far shows no pricing power. AeroVironment and others hold the same tickets.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
The threat
AeroVironment, the largest listed US maker of small military drones, sells the same loitering munitions and counter-drone systems and names UVision, whose munition Ondas delivers, as a direct rival. Anduril, Elbit and DroneShield sell to the same armies. In Israel, its biggest market, the country's own defence giants compete for every order.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
The rivals: AVAV, ESLT, RCAT, and 2 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV | AeroVironment's Switchblade loitering munitions and counter-drone systemsPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| Private | Anduril's interceptors, Roadrunner and Lattice softwarePriced against it: Private | On sale | Private |
| ESLT | Elbit Systems and Israel Aerospace IndustriesPriced against it: Different product | On sale | Different product |
| DroneShield's counter-drone detectors and jammersPriced against it: Listed abroad | On sale | Listed abroad | |
| RCAT | Red Cat HoldingsPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
How big it could get
How big this could get
The buyer's budget is huge and rising. The US defence request for 2027 asks $53.6B to build up drone forces and $20.6B to defend against drones, up from $3.9B the year before, though Congress has not yet voted it.
Nobody publishes Israel's or Europe's spending in the same terms, so the market Ondas can reach cannot be added up. It is far bigger than Ondas either way.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Who has signed
The largest commitment is a US Army award worth up to $982M through 2030 for UVision's munition, delivered by Ondas's Mistral; Ondas says over $240M has been ordered. A European programme ordered $56M of arming electronics in October. The biggest customer is unnamed and its terms are not filed.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The munition is UVision's design and AeroVironment names UVision as its own competitor, so Ondas integrates a product it does not own (S16, S18).
The customer and delivery terms are not named, and Bron joined the group three weeks earlier (S09).
The results
The numbers
Sales grew 605% in the year to Dec 2025, faster than the −54% in the year before.
Operating margin is −115%, up from −33× in the year to Dec 2022.
Running costs take 155¢ of each sales dollar, down from 656¢ in the year to Dec 2021.
Shareholders' money lost 58% a year, down from −24% in the year to Dec 2021.
It used $40.8M of cash in the latest year, so the $572M it holds lasts about 14.0 years at that pace.
Yearly sales growth has ranged from −54% to +638% over the last 5 years, with sales falling in 2 of them.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-06. Fiscal years end in December.
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | |||||
| Sales | $2.91M | $2.13M | $15.7M | $7.19M | $50.7M |
| Sales growth | +34% | −27% | +638% | −54% | +605% |
| Profit | |||||
| Gross margin | 38% | 52% | 41% | 4.8% | 40% |
| Operating margin | −618% | −33× | −253% | −481% | −115% |
| Net margin | −517% | −34× | −286% | −528% | −261% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | |||||
| Research and development | 200% | 11× | 109% | 173% | 41% |
| Sales and marketing | 51% | 163% | 38% | 74% | 26% |
| General and admin | 405% | 11× | 137% | 238% | 88% |
| Pay in shares | 112% | 276% | 6.7% | 18% | 32% |
| Capital spending | 32% | 136% | 1.3% | 23% | 4.0% |
| Cash | |||||
| Cash from operations | −$16.9M | −$38.0M | −$34.0M | −$33.5M | −$38.7M |
| Free cash flow | −$17.8M | −$40.8M | −$34.2M | −$35.1M | −$40.8M |
| Balance sheet | |||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $40.8M | $29.8M | - | $30.0M | $572M |
| Debt | $300K | - | - | $300K | - |
| Net cash | $40.5M | - | - | $29.7M | - |
| Returns and shares | |||||
| Shares (diluted) | - | - | - | 69.9K | 222K |
What growth costs
Growth is getting dearer, not cheaper. Running costs rose faster than sales in Q2 2026, so the loss grew as the business got bigger. Management says much of the spending is ahead of a second-half ramp; the next two reports show whether that is true.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
Management says Q2 included spending ahead of the second-half ramp and integration costs (S03).
The last report (13 Aug)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
In Q2 2026 sales reached $83.8M, up from $50.1M in the first quarter, and Ondas raised its 2026 target to $525M to $550M. The company led with 85% growth on a basis that counts every business it now owns as if it had always owned it.
The quarterly report tells a different story: $70.0M of the $77.5M rise came from businesses bought in the past year. Meanwhile the loss before interest, tax and one-off items, by the company's own measure, grew from $10.9M to $50.6M.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed that sales are rising fast and the target was raised, but also that the rise was bought, and that losses grew faster than sales. Whether the businesses it already owned grow on their own is still not shown in any filing.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures. The company has restated its own history, so a quarter either side of the restatement may describe a different business; n/c marks one that does not compare.
Earnings per share $-0.19 against $-0.09 expected; $-0.19 as filed, with no adjustments.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
First-half revenue was $133.9M, so the guide needs about $400M in six months, and adjusted EBITDA moved from a $10.9M loss to $50.6M between Q1 and Q2 (S01, C07).
No filing states organic growth; the 10-Q's own pro forma covers only 2026 deals, $84.6M against $29.7M, and the businesses owned a year earlier added about $7.5M (S01, C04).
What management did with the money
Ondas raised about $1.8B by selling shares and warrants in 2025 and January 2026, then spent much of it, plus hundreds of millions of new shares, on acquisitions. It has never bought back a share or paid a dividend.
Insiders in 2026Q3: 9 purchases and 17 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Full. The price already pays for this year's promised sales, valued like its rivals, for a business whose losses are growing and whose growth was mostly bought.
The shares have fallen by about half since January's $1.0B raise, through a short-seller's report and the chief executive's June sale, while sales rose. Half the shares available to trade are sold short.
Third-quarter results on 12 November test a promised $140M to $155M of sales and narrower losses. In January, 45M more shares go to DZYNE's sellers.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
First-half revenue was $133.9M, so the guide needs about $400M in six months, and adjusted EBITDA moved from a $10.9M loss to $50.6M between Q1 and Q2 (S01, C07).
The customer and delivery terms are not named, and Bron joined the group three weeks earlier (S09).
How we read the multiple
Counting every share now in issue and the cash left after this year's deals, Ondas is valued at about $3.4B. It has never made an operating profit.
For the price to work:
- Its two listed rivals are valued at about 7.1 times their yearly sales, on the middle of the two.
- At that rate, $3.4B needs about $480M of yearly sales.
- That is this year's promised sales delivered in full.
- At AeroVironment's lower rate of 3.8, it needs about $900M, close to next year's forecast.
Against its own history. It is cheaper than its own past, but that past was a tiny company priced on hope; the drop says hope shrank as shares multiplied, not that it is cheap.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
The vendor's company value is about $3.55B on a stale share count and cash alone, and the 45.0M DZYNE shares due in January add about $0.33B more (C14, S13).
First-half revenue was $133.9M, so the guide needs about $400M in six months, and adjusted EBITDA moved from a $10.9M loss to $50.6M between Q1 and Q2 (S01, C07).
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of sales, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | company value for each $1 of sales |
|---|---|---|
| AVAV | AeroVironment | 3.8× |
| RCAT | Red Cat Holdings | 10.4× |
| ONDS | Ondas Holdings | 20.4× |
The middle of the other 2 is 7.1. Ondas Holdings Inc. is dearest of 3.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
The premium is Ondas's own: AeroVironment and Red Cat, which make similar products, both trade well below it on what buyers pay for each dollar of sales.
Also checked and set aside: Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (a substitute, not the same product).
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Anduril Industries, Inc., D-Fend Solutions, DroneShield Limited, UVision Air Ltd.
The bet: what it pays if it works
This is a bet that Ondas grows into the sales analysts forecast for next year, as bought businesses and Army orders ramp up. Even then, valued like AeroVironment, the company would be worth about what it is today.
If growth stalls, Ondas still has cash and real sales, so shareholders would keep a good part of their money, but probably not all of it.
| Revenue in two to three years | Years at June's run rate needed | Valued like its peers | Like the cheapest |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1.01B (the big win) | about 3 at 100% kept | 2.0× | 1.1× |
| $1.35B | about 4 at 100% kept | 2.7× | 1.4× |
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $1.87B of revenue (about 6 years at June's run rate); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $4.67B of revenue (about 14 years at June's run rate), at the same multiple.
The steps it has to take
- Done January 2026 raise of $1.0B
- Done Ondas Networks deconsolidated
- Done DZYNE acquisition closed
- In progress Volume deliveries under the Army award due 2026-12-31
- In progress 2026 revenue of $525M to $550M due 2026-12-31
- Not started Adjusted EBITDA positive at the operating platform due 2026-12-31
- Not started Adjusted EBITDA positive company-wide due 2027-12-31
The detail behind the label
The evidence under this - 6 claims
The 10-Q states no remaining performance obligation or backlog figure, and the jump since December is mostly acquired backlog, such as DZYNE's $111M and Cyberhawk's $95M (S01, S07).
The munition is UVision's design and AeroVironment names UVision as its own competitor, so Ondas integrates a product it does not own (S16, S18).
Contingent earn-outs, payable partly in cash, and further deals would reduce the cash, and a stalled acquirer rarely keeps a peer multiple (C40, C13).
Interest on $1.39B and any warrant exercise add cash, and earn-outs may be paid in shares rather than cash (S01, C17).
Where we disagree with the market
A defence-drone platform growing fast on rising military budgets, with every analyst rating it a buy.
Most of the growth was bought with new shares, the filings show no growth of its own, and losses are widening.
The market may be right that the businesses Ondas bought are growing fast inside it; the company says so, and armies are buying more drones and drone defences every year.
But that growth figure appears only in releases and the call, never in a filing, and half the shares available to trade are sold short.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 6 claims
No filing states organic growth; the 10-Q's own pro forma covers only 2026 deals, $84.6M against $29.7M, and the businesses owned a year earlier added about $7.5M (S01, C04).
The 10-Q states no remaining performance obligation or backlog figure, and the jump since December is mostly acquired backlog, such as DZYNE's $111M and Cyberhawk's $95M (S01, S07).
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- One big customer. One unnamed customer took 40% of Q2 2026 sales, and Israel 45%, so a ceasefire or a lost programme would show at once.
- More shares to come. 45M shares are due in January, and warrants, options and earn-outs could add hundreds of millions more.
- Losses growing with sales. The loss widened almost fivefold in a quarter; if it keeps pace, the cash runs down within a few years.
- Paying too much for deals. Several companies were bought at prices above what AeroVironment trades for, on forecasts their sellers wrote.
- Budgets that are only requests. The US drone money is a request Congress has not voted, and allied budgets can turn back to missiles and aircraft.
- The growth may be real. If the bought businesses really grow as fast as management says, this view is wrong.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
What we still do not know
- How fast are the businesses Ondas owned a year ago growing, on figures it files?
- Who is the customer that takes 40% of sales, and on what terms?
- How much of the reported backlog would the filings support?
- How much of the $982M Army award has actually been delivered and paid?
The evidence under this - 4 claims
No filing states organic growth; the 10-Q's own pro forma covers only 2026 deals, $84.6M against $29.7M, and the businesses owned a year earlier added about $7.5M (S01, C04).
The 10-Q states no remaining performance obligation or backlog figure, and the jump since December is mostly acquired backlog, such as DZYNE's $111M and Cyberhawk's $95M (S01, S07).
The munition is UVision's design and AeroVironment names UVision as its own competitor, so Ondas integrates a product it does not own (S16, S18).
What would change our view
- Unattractive→NeutralGrowth of its own, with losses turning
It needs all of:
- ○Sales of the businesses Ondas owned a year earlier grow more than 30%, in figures it files.checked at the next results, due by 12 Nov
- ○The loss before interest, tax and one-off items narrows below $25M a quarter.checked at the next results, due by 12 Nov
- ○No new shares are sold for cash in that quarter or the one before.watched as it happens
- Unattractive→NeutralA price that no longer pays for the guide
It needs all of:
- ○The shares fall until Ondas is valued like its listed rivals relative to its sales.about ≈$2.58 today, 65% below the last close
- ○Third-quarter sales land within the promised $140M to $155M.checked at the next results, due by 12 Nov
We would also be wrong if
- The loss before one-off items turns into a profit for a full quarter.
- One customer takes more than half of a quarter's sales.
- Third-quarter sales fall below $140M or the 2026 target is cut.
What is coming
- 12 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether revenue reaches the $140M to $155M guide, how far adjusted EBITDA losses moved from $50.6M, the cash left after the deals, and how much growth was acquired.
Every dated event ahead
- 12 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether revenue reaches the $140M to $155M guide, how far adjusted EBITDA losses moved from $50.6M, the cash left after the deals, and how much growth was acquired.
- 4 January 2027 45.0M DZYNE shares issued; first DZYNE lock-up ends: Whether DZYNE's sellers sell into a market already half short.
- 31 March 2027 Full-year 2026 results: Whether 2026 revenue landed within $525M to $550M and the operating platform turned EBITDA positive in Q4, as promised.
Since we wrote this
- 8 OctNewsOndas claims over $165M of new orders since mid-August, $270M since June 30. View heldOndas says it secured over $165M of orders from mid-August to 1 October.
- 6 OctThesis writtenUnattractive, medium convictionWritten seven weeks after the June-quarter print, a day after a $56M order, with Q3 results due on 12 November.
Also checked 2 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 19
Sources - 19
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-08-13the income statement, revenue by type and destination, the acquired-revenue split in the MD&A, customer concentration, the balance sheet, the cash flow statement, the warrant liability and offering terms, every 2026 business combination, the deconsolidation of Ondas Networks, the anti-dilutive share table, the cover share count, and the July and August subsequent eventsbacksC01C03C04C06C07C08C09C10C12C13C14C16C17C19C22C44
- S02primarycompany release2026-08-13the raised $525M to $550M target, the Q3 guide, orders, backlog reported and pro forma, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted cash operating expense, the LUS orders and the EBITDA timetablebacksC05C07C20C21C23
- S03primarytranscript2026-08-13Ondas Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)the pro forma organic growth claims, the $11B pipeline, unit growth rates, the margin outlook, the LUS delivery comments, the Israeli programmes and the analysts' questions
Ondas generated approximately 85% organic revenue growth in the second quarter compared with Q2 2025
backsC05C21C23C36C38C47C49 - S04primarycompany filing2026-03-30Item 1 on the business and its competition, 2024 and 2025 statements, the warrant loss, customer concentration, employees and the 2024 diluted share countbacksC01C02C06C12C19C28C42
- S05primarycompany release2026-03-09the preliminary 2025 revenue and net loss ranges and the $170M to $180M 2026 guide before acquisitionsbacksC20
- S06primarycompany filing2026-04-21executive officers and tenure, 2025 pay, the beneficial ownership table and the share authorisation proposalsbacksC17C34C35
- S07primarycompany release2026-07-06DZYNE's consideration in cash and shares, its 2026 and 2027 revenue forecasts, its backlog and pipeline, and the lock-upbacksC14C15
- S08primarycompany release2026-06-18the $125M price, mostly cash, Cyberhawk's forecast revenue and backlogbacksC48
- S09primarycompany filing2026-09-14the cash, share, working-capital and earn-out terms, the shares issued, and the expected EBITDA contributionbacksC13C16C40C41
- S10primarycompany filing2026-09-237.8M shares issued for CaribouLabs, Insignito and OttopiabacksC13C16
- S11primarycompany release2026-10-05the order's size, the Bron route and the unnamed European programme
today announced a $56 million order for Electronic Safe & Arm Devices
backsC24 - S12primarycompany filing2026-10-06every open-market sale and its Rule 10b5-1 flag, the chief executive's December and June sales and the June vestingbacksC33
- S13secondaryvendor data2026-10-06Research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, filed competitor cohort)the $7.42 close of 5 October, the 52-week range and 252-day decomposition, short interest at the 15 September settlement, the analyst split and revenue consensus, daily reactions to each event, and the EV/Sales cohortbacksC19C29C31C32C37C51
- S14primarygovernment data2026-04-03US Department of War, FY 2027 Budget Request Overview Book U.S. Department of Warthe $53.6B drone-dominance request, $39.2B for autonomous systems, $14.4B for counter-unmanned systems, $20.6B for counter-drone work overall against $3.9B enacted, and the Army's $1.9B counter-small-drone line
The FY 2027 President's Budget includes $20.6 billion, an increase of $16.6 billion, or 424 percent over the FY 2026 enacted level of $3.9 billion
backsC25C50 - S15primaryregulator2023-12-22the federal ban on drones from covered foreign entities, which include companies domiciled in or controlled from China
the head of an executive agency may not procure any covered unmanned aircraft system that is manufactured or assembled by a covered foreign entity
backsC26 - S16primarycompany filing2026-06-29the named competitors in loitering munitions, including UVision, and in counter-drone systems, including DroneShieldbacksC27
- S17secondarynews2025-09-30the award, its sole-source basis under the public-interest provision and its run to September 2030, from the Pentagon's contract announcement
The US Army has awarded Maryland-based defense firm Mistral Inc. a contract worth $982 million to provide lethal unmanned systems
backsC22 - S18secondarynews2025-10-03that the munition is UVision's HERO-120, with Mistral as integrator, and that deliveries were expected from early 2026
This contract covers system deliveries, training, and lifecycle sustainment. Initial deliveries are expected to begin in early 2026.
backsC22 - S19secondarynews2026-02-05the short report's objection, read through press coverage because the report itself is paywalled
JCapital accused the company of pursuing 'high-priced, money-losing acquisitions funded by massive share dilution.'
backsC37