← All thesesLEUUnattractiveMedium convictionSunday 4 October 2026עברית

Centrus Energy

An American company that resells enriched uranium fuel to power plants and wants to build the first US-owned enrichment plant in decades, in Ohio.

Our viewUnattractive Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth2/4 →

Revenue $442M to $449M in 2025 and $474M trailing; the business shrinks as Russian supply ends, and nothing new produces before 2029.

Business quality2/4 →

A reseller of others' enrichment with no moat today; the US-origin shelter applies only to a plant not yet built.

Financial position2/4 →

Net cash about $1.2B after September, but the build's cost is undisclosed and it raised equity and notes repeatedly to fund it.

Execution record2/4 ↑

The 2007 plan for this site ended in bankruptcy; the recent HALEU record is real but 16 machines.

Per share capture2/4 ↓

Shares up 21% in a year while revenue per share fell 10%, with 6,992,382 warrants and in-the-money notes above.

Potential3/4 ↑

US buyers need about 3.4 million SWU of non-Russian supply, with $2.4B of definitive contracts and DOE's $900M behind the plant.

Risk profile2/4 →

Over half of deliveries through 2027 are Russian, the waivers end after 2027, and the plant's cost is unknown.

Valuation2/4 ↑

26.8 times trailing EBITDA against a 7.3 norm; the price pays for about 2 million SWU of a plant not yet costed.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Supply, backlog, cash and the market are filed or official; the plant's cost, size and margin are inferred or missing.

The bet · 2-3 years
Priced for success1.8×

If it works 1.8× · if it fails you keep about 44%.

The Verdict

We rate Centrus unattractive. Today it is a middleman reselling enrichment bought mostly from Russia and France, a weak business whose supply runs out after 2027. The value rests on a new Ohio plant that customers and the government are backing but whose cost and size nobody has published. The price is full: it counts on a plant of about 2 million units a year at today's high prices, paid up front before it is built. As a bet it is priced for success: if the plant works it pays a little more than today's value, and if it fails shareholders keep about a third.

The long caseUS law shuts out Russian enrichment, so utilities need a new American supplier; Centrus wins if it can build a plant on time and on budget.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Centrus has two segments: LEU sells enrichment (SWU) and uranium to utilities, nearly all of it sourced outside the US, chiefly from TENEX of Russia and Orano of France; Technical Solutions ran a 16-centrifuge HALEU cascade at Piketon, Ohio for the Department of Energy.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C20inferencemedium confidence
Without its own plant the trading business runs off: its Russian supply ends after 2027 to 2028 and Orano's in 2030, and the LEU backlog outside the contingent contracts is about $0.7B.
derivedSupply end dates (C04, C05) and the LEU backlog of $3.7B less its $3.0B contingent part (C06).
against this

The trade agreement sets aside Russian quota for Centrus through 2028, and management reports strong order momentum and rising long-term prices (S03, S05).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C10facthigh confidence
Centrus began building centrifuges in Oak Ridge, Tennessee in December 2025, plans to invest more than $560M there over several years, and expects its first new centrifuges online in Piketon in 2029; the 10-Q gives no assurance the expansion is completed.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C11facthigh confidence
No filing, release or 2026 call gives the expansion's total cost, its capacity in SWU or its number of centrifuges; management says it will set out its long-term outlook at a first Investor Day at Piketon in December 2026.
current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C27inferencemedium confidence
At $1.95B of company value, less about $225M for the trading business, the price pays about $1.7B for the plant: at 11 times EBITDA that is about $157M a year, some 2 million SWU at the $200 spot and Urenco's 38.4% margin, before the plant's cost is known.
derivedPack company value (C26), the trading business's value (C21), spot price (C14) and Urenco's margin (C16), at a stated 11 times EBITDA for an enricher with no listed peer.
against this

On September's shares and cash the market value is about $3.1B and net cash about $1.2B, which leaves company value near $1.95B either way; and DOE's $900M pays for part of the HALEU build (C23, C09).

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C06facthigh confidence
Backlog was $4.5B at 30 June 2026, extending to 2040: $3.7B in LEU, of which $3.0B is contingent LEU and HALEU sales tied to building capacity at Piketon and $2.4B of that under definitive agreements, against $2.3B contingent at the end of 2025; Technical Solutions' $0.8B is the HALEU operation contract.
against this

The contingent sales 'tend to relate to achievement of operational milestones' at a plant not yet built, and the $0.8B Technical Solutions backlog is a contract DOE does not intend to extend (S01).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
01

The company

Nuclear plants burn uranium that has been enriched: spun in thousands of fast centrifuges until the useful kind makes up about 5%. The industry measures that work in separative work units, or SWU.

Centrus buys SWU from Russia's TENEX and France's Orano and resells it to utilities on long contracts. It also ran a small 16-machine cascade in Ohio for the Department of Energy, which ends this year. It now plans its own plant, using an American centrifuge design.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Centrus has two segments: LEU sells enrichment (SWU) and uranium to utilities, nearly all of it sourced outside the US, chiefly from TENEX of Russia and Orano of France; Technical Solutions ran a 16-centrifuge HALEU cascade at Piketon, Ohio for the Department of Energy.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C08facthigh confidence
DOE's HALEU operation contract is ending: Option 1b runs to 30 September 2026 at a fixed $15M for maintenance and storage with no production, DOE does not intend to exercise further options, and its 2027 budget request does not fund the cascade; Centrus has produced nearly 2 tonnes of HALEU under it.
against this

Centrus is working with DOE on agreements to run the cascade privately on a commercial basis (S01).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C10facthigh confidence
Centrus began building centrifuges in Oak Ridge, Tennessee in December 2025, plans to invest more than $560M there over several years, and expects its first new centrifuges online in Piketon in 2029; the 10-Q gives no assurance the expansion is completed.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C31management claimmedium confidence
US policy and nonproliferation agreements bar foreign-origin civilian enrichment technology from national-security uses, and Centrus says its AC100M is the only deployment-ready US technology that meets them, so its output is 'unobligated'.
against this

General Matter, a US company, won an equal $900M HALEU award from DOE (S08), and a second US-origin enricher would end the claim to be the only one.

current state · 2026-09-09written 2026-10-04

How it makes money

Almost all the profit is a margin between what Centrus pays its suppliers and what utilities pay it. Its suppliers' prices were fixed lower in 2018, so it earned $111.5M of gross profit on $346.2M of fuel sales in 2025.

That gap lasts only as long as the supply does. Over half of what it delivers through 2027 is Russian, and nothing else it holds can replace it.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C02facthigh confidence
2025 revenue was $448.7M against $442.0M in 2024: $298.7M of SWU, $47.5M of uranium and $102.5M of Technical Solutions. LEU segment gross profit was $111.5M on $346.2M of revenue, operating income $50.2M after $36.2M of SG&A and $16.9M of advanced technology costs, and net income $77.8M.
historical · FY 2025written 2026-10-04
C03facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter revenue was $176.1M: $100.0M of SWU, $53.4M of uranium and $22.7M of Technical Solutions, with SWU volume down 23%. LEU gross profit was $51.6M, operating income $10.4M and net income $16.8M, of which $16.3M was interest on cash; first-half LEU gross profit was $79.5M.
historical · Q2 2026 and H1 2026written 2026-10-04
C21estimatemedium confidence
The trading business earns about $75M a year before growth spending, its 2025 LEU gross profit of $111.5M less $36.2M of SG&A, and as a run-off is worth about three times that, roughly $225M.
derivedFiled 2025 segment gross profit and SG&A (C02), with the run-off from C20; the multiple is a judgement of a business with three to four years of supply left.
against this

First-half 2026 LEU gross profit of $79.5M runs ahead of 2025's pace, and new sales at a $200 spot carry wider margins (C03, C14).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C04facthigh confidence
TENEX supplies Centrus under a contract running through 2028 at prices reset to 2018's lower market, and Orano through 2030; through 2027 well over half of the LEU Centrus expects to deliver was sourced from TENEX, and its other sources are not sufficient to replace it.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (FY 2025)How it earns it
Enrichment (SWU) sales66.6%Resells enrichment bought mostly from Russia's TENEX and France's Orano to utilities under long-term contracts.
Uranium sales10.6%Sells natural uranium to utilities, some of it taken as payment for enrichment; volumes swing quarter to quarter.
Technical Solutions22.8%Contract work for DOE, chiefly running the HALEU cascade at Piketon; production funding ended on 30 September 2026.

Who runs it

Amir Vexler has run Centrus since January 2024; before that he ran Orano's American arm, a rival enricher. The finance chief and the head of the Ohio site both arrived in 2025. Directors and executives together own under 1% of the company. Their yearly bonus pays on trading results, progress toward enriching again, and revenue, profit and cash; their shares vest on a three-year profit goal, and that profit includes interest earned on money raised from shareholders.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C43facthigh confidence
Amir Vexler has been president and chief executive since 1 January 2024, after running Orano USA from 2021 to 2023 and 20 years at GE, including Global Nuclear Fuel. Todd Tinelli became finance chief on 11 August 2025 from Sprague Resources, replacing Kevin Harrill, and must hold a DOE Q clearance by 11 February 2027; Patrick Brown, who helped commission Urenco's New Mexico plant, has run field operations since 1 August 2025. The finance, legal and field-operations heads all changed in 2025.
current state · 2026-04-24written 2026-10-04
C41facthigh confidence
At 27 March 2026 directors and executive officers as a group (12 people) owned 142,099 shares, under 1% of the 18,952,387 Class A shares; the largest were directors William Madia (57,031) and Mikel Williams (51,779), mostly vested unsettled RSUs, and the chief executive 4,392. The 719,200 Class B shares, held by Toshiba's TAES and BWXT, elect one director. D. E. Shaw (5.1%), BlackRock (5.0%) and Global X (5.0%) were the holders above 5%.
current state · 2026-03-27written 2026-10-04
C42facthigh confidence
The 2025 cash bonus paid on three goal groups: enrichment supply and trading to maximise revenue and gross profit (35%), progress to producing enrichment again, including safety and centrifuge manufacturing (25%), and revenue, operating income and cash balances (40%); it paid 121% of target for 2025 and 165% for 2024, with targets withheld. Long-term awards are all performance RSUs that vest on an undisclosed three-year cumulative net income goal; the chief executive's long-term target is 33% of his $810,000 salary against a bonus target of 100%.
against this

Net income, the long-term award's only test, includes interest on cash raised from shareholders: $16.3M of Q2 2026's $16.8M (C03), so the goal can be met by raising money rather than by enriching.

current state · 2026-04-24written 2026-10-04
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

For the fuel it resells there is no moat: anyone with supply can sell the same thing.

The plant is different. US rules bar foreign-designed enrichment from military uses, and Centrus says its centrifuge is the only American design ready to deploy. That is why the government picked it for a $900M award. But the government picked General Matter, a private rival, for an equal award, and holds a free right to use Centrus's design for its own purposes.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C31management claimmedium confidence
US policy and nonproliferation agreements bar foreign-origin civilian enrichment technology from national-security uses, and Centrus says its AC100M is the only deployment-ready US technology that meets them, so its output is 'unobligated'.
against this

General Matter, a US company, won an equal $900M HALEU award from DOE (S08), and a second US-origin enricher would end the claim to be the only one.

current state · 2026-09-09written 2026-10-04
C09facthigh confidence
DOE awarded $2.7B of enrichment task orders on 5 January 2026: $900M each to Centrus's subsidiary American Centrifuge Operating and to General Matter for HALEU, and to Orano for LEU; Centrus signed its task order on 1 July 2026 and was not selected for the LEU award.
against this

General Matter received an identical $900M HALEU award and Orano the LEU one, so DOE is funding rivals on both halves of Centrus's plan (S08).

current state · 2026-07-01written 2026-10-04
C40facthigh confidence
DOE holds an irrevocable, royalty-free right to use Centrus's centrifuge technology for government purposes, and a commercial licence capped at $665M of royalties if Centrus misses its 2002 agreement's milestones or abandons deployment.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C14facthigh confidence
Spot enrichment averaged about $200 per SWU at the end of December 2025, up from $193 a year earlier, as reported by TradeTech and UxC.
against this

US buyers paid an average of $108.70 per SWU in 2025, so most enrichment still sells near half the spot price (S09).

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04

The threat

Others are moving first. Urenco already runs a US plant of about 4.6 million SWU a year and is adding 700,000 by 2027. Orano plans a $5B plant in Tennessee from 2031, with its own $900M award, and General Matter is building in Kentucky. Utilities can buy from them directly, without a middleman.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C17factmedium confidence
Urenco's US plant at Eunice, New Mexico produces about 4.6 million SWU a year and is adding about 700,000, due to finish in 2027; Orano is spending EUR1.7B (USD1.9B) to add 2.5 million SWU to its French plant.
current state · 2026-03-12written 2026-10-04
C18factmedium confidence
Orano is developing Project IKE, a $5B LEU plant in Oak Ridge due to produce in 2031; General Matter will use its $900M award for a HALEU plant at the former Paducah site, on federal land leased in 2025; Global Laser Enrichment received $28.5M and is pursuing a laser plant at Paducah.
current state · 2026-01-06written 2026-10-04
C09facthigh confidence
DOE awarded $2.7B of enrichment task orders on 5 January 2026: $900M each to Centrus's subsidiary American Centrifuge Operating and to General Matter for HALEU, and to Orano for LEU; Centrus signed its task order on 1 July 2026 and was not selected for the LEU award.
against this

General Matter received an identical $900M HALEU award and Orano the LEU one, so DOE is funding rivals on both halves of Centrus's plan (S08).

current state · 2026-07-01written 2026-10-04
C04facthigh confidence
TENEX supplies Centrus under a contract running through 2028 at prices reset to 2018's lower market, and Orano through 2030; through 2027 well over half of the LEU Centrus expects to deliver was sourced from TENEX, and its other sources are not sufficient to replace it.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04

The rivals: CCJ, and 4 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
Not listedUrenco USA, Eunice, New MexicoPriced against it: Not listedDomestic enrichment build-out at PiketonOn saleNot listed
Not listedOrano, Project IKE in Oak Ridge and its French plantPriced against it: Not listedDomestic enrichment build-out at PiketonAnnouncedNot listed
PrivateGeneral Matter, Paducah, KentuckyPriced against it: PrivateDomestic enrichment build-out at PiketonAnnouncedPrivate
CCJGlobal Laser Enrichment, owned by Silex and CamecoPriced against it: One segment onlyDomestic enrichment build-out at PiketonIn researchOne segment only
Not listedUrenco and Orano selling to utilities directlyPriced against it: Not listedLEU trading businessOn saleNot listed
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

US reactor owners bought 13 million SWU in 2025, paying an average of $108.70 each, about $1.4B. A quarter of it came from Russia, about 3.4 million SWU a year that US law stops after 2027.

That gap is the prize. At today's spot price of $200, filling it would be worth roughly $680M a year in sales, shared with whoever else builds.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C13facthigh confidence
US civilian reactor owners and operators bought 13 million SWU in 2025 from four sellers at an average $108.70 per SWU, up 11% from $97.66; 23% was US-origin and 26% Russian, 18% French, 14% British and 8% Dutch.
against this

The average is a contract price that lags the market: spot was $200 at the end of 2025 (S10).

historical · calendar 2025written 2026-10-04
C14facthigh confidence
Spot enrichment averaged about $200 per SWU at the end of December 2025, up from $193 a year earlier, as reported by TradeTech and UxC.
against this

US buyers paid an average of $108.70 per SWU in 2025, so most enrichment still sells near half the spot price (S09).

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C33inferencemedium confidence
US reactor owners must replace about 3.4 million SWU a year of Russian supply once waivers end after 2027, a quarter of what they bought in 2025.
derived26% of 13 million SWU (C13) against the ban's end date (C05).
against this

Waivers have been granted before, and some 2025 Russian deliveries may already sit in utilities' inventories (S01).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C15facthigh confidence
The world enrichment market is about 50 million SWU a year and Centrus's share is under 5%; four state-owned suppliers hold over 95%: Rosatom about 27 million SWU of capacity, Urenco 17 million, CNEIC 11 million and Orano 8 million.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04

Who has signed

Customers have signed $2.4B of contracts for fuel from the new plant, payable only once it runs. The government signed a $900M order for its high-grade fuel. Three makers of small reactors, X-energy, Radiant and Antares, signed contracts with advance payments, without saying how much.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C06facthigh confidence
Backlog was $4.5B at 30 June 2026, extending to 2040: $3.7B in LEU, of which $3.0B is contingent LEU and HALEU sales tied to building capacity at Piketon and $2.4B of that under definitive agreements, against $2.3B contingent at the end of 2025; Technical Solutions' $0.8B is the HALEU operation contract.
against this

The contingent sales 'tend to relate to achievement of operational milestones' at a plant not yet built, and the $0.8B Technical Solutions backlog is a contract DOE does not intend to extend (S01).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C09facthigh confidence
DOE awarded $2.7B of enrichment task orders on 5 January 2026: $900M each to Centrus's subsidiary American Centrifuge Operating and to General Matter for HALEU, and to Orano for LEU; Centrus signed its task order on 1 July 2026 and was not selected for the LEU award.
against this

General Matter received an identical $900M HALEU award and Orano the LEU one, so DOE is funding rivals on both halves of Centrus's plan (S08).

current state · 2026-07-01written 2026-10-04
C30facthigh confidence
Centrus signed definitive multi-year HALEU contracts with X-energy (6 August 2026, LEU and HALEU, with prepayments), Radiant (9 September) and Antares (17 September, with prepayments), deliveries starting before the end of the decade; none discloses a volume or price.
current state · 2026-09-17written 2026-10-04
04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Steady

Sales grew 8.5% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 1.5% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $298MDec 2022: $294MDec 2023: $320MDec 2024: $442MDec 2025: $449M12 mo to Jun 2026: $474M$298M$474M
Is it profitable?Thin

Operating margin is 1.6%, down from 16% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: 23%Dec 2022: 20%Dec 2023: 16%Dec 2024: 11%Dec 2025: 11%12 mo to Jun 2026: 1.6%23%1.6%
Does growth pay off?Costly

Running costs take 22¢ of each sales dollar, up from 15¢ in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 15¢Dec 2022: 20¢Dec 2023: 19¢Dec 2024: 14¢Dec 2025: 15¢12 mo to Jun 2026: 22¢15¢22¢
Does it earn good returns?Low

Each dollar put into the business earns 0.5% a year after tax, down from 67% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2023: 67%Dec 2024: 12%Dec 2025: 3.5%12 mo to Jun 2026: 0.5%67%0.5%
How long can it keep going?Long runway

It used $164M of cash over the last twelve months, so the $1.87B it holds lasts about 11.4 years at that pace.

Dec 2021: $48.8MDec 2022: $19.9MDec 2023: $7.50MDec 2024: $32.9MDec 2025: $31.3M12 mo to Jun 2026: −$164M$48.8M−$164M
Is the balance sheet safe?Net cash

It holds $1.87B of cash against $1.18B of debt, $691M more cash than it owes.

Dec 2021: $85.9MDec 2022: $78.1MDec 2023: $106MDec 2024: $193MDec 2025: $782M12 mo to Jun 2026: $691M$85.9M$691M
Are shares being diluted?Diluting

The share count rose 58% in 4.5 years.

Dec 2021: 13.9MDec 2022: 15.0MDec 2023: 15.5MDec 2024: 16.4MDec 2025: 19.9M12 mo to Jun 2026: 21.9M13.9M21.9M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$298M$294M$320M$442M$449M$474M
Sales growth+21%−1.5%+9.0%+38%+1.5%+8.5%
Profit
Gross margin38%40%35%25%26%24%
Operating margin23%20%16%11%11%1.6%
Net margin59%18%26%17%17%10%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development0.7%5.0%4.4%3.9%3.8%8.5%
Selling, general and admin12%12%12%7.9%8.1%12%
Pay in shares4.1%0.6%0.7%0.3%1.3%-
Capital spending0.4%0.2%0.5%0.9%4.4%23%
Cash
Cash from operations$50.0M$20.6M$9.10M$37.0M$51.0M−$55.0M
Free cash flow$48.8M$19.9M$7.50M$32.9M$31.3M−$164M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$194M$180M$201M$671M$1.96B$1.87B
Debt$108M$102M$95.7M$479M$1.17B$1.18B
Net cash$85.9M$78.1M$106M$193M$782M$691M
Returns and shares
Return on capital--67%12%3.5%0.5%
Shares (diluted)13.9M15.0M15.5M16.4M19.9M21.9M

What growth costs

Growing has made Centrus less profitable, not more. Office costs barely moved, but the enrichment it resells costs more as sales rise, and spending on the new plant now arrives years before the plant earns anything. Until the Ohio centrifuges run, each year of building eats into a thin trading profit.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C45facthigh confidence
From 2023 to 2025 revenue rose from $320.2M to $448.7M while SG&A held near $36M, from 11.5% to 8.1% of sales; gross margin fell from 35.0% to 26.2% and operating margin from 16.4% to 11.2%. Advanced technology costs, the filer's ResearchAndDevelopmentExpense tag, rose from $14.2M to $16.9M and to $40.3M in the year to June 2026, when capital spending was $108.8M and operating margin 1.6%; the 10-Q's adjusted figures treat $27.6M of the first half's $29.7M as expansion costs.
historical · FY 2023 to the year to June 2026written 2026-10-04
C36facthigh confidence
Operating cash flow was $51.0M in 2025 with $19.7M of capital spending; in the first half of 2026 operating cash flow was minus $16.7M and capital spending $94.8M.
historical · FY 2025 and H1 2026written 2026-10-04

The last report (5 Aug)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

14%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
129.6%
Growth from the quarter before
against -47.5% the quarter before that
6¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

Sales rose because Centrus sold uranium as well as enrichment; the amount of enrichment it sold fell 23%. Profit fell as share-based pay and building costs rose, and a third of what was left came from interest on its cash.

The better news was in signed orders: contracts waiting on the new plant reached $3.0B, up from $2.3B in December. The government's order for its existing Ohio cascade, meanwhile, is ending.

What it did to the thesisIt proved the demand: signed contracts for the new plant grew again. It did not touch the cost or size of the plant, and it showed the old trading shrinking in volume while the government work ended.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $0.77 against $0.73 expected; $0.77 as filed, with no adjustments.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C03facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter revenue was $176.1M: $100.0M of SWU, $53.4M of uranium and $22.7M of Technical Solutions, with SWU volume down 23%. LEU gross profit was $51.6M, operating income $10.4M and net income $16.8M, of which $16.3M was interest on cash; first-half LEU gross profit was $79.5M.
historical · Q2 2026 and H1 2026written 2026-10-04
C06facthigh confidence
Backlog was $4.5B at 30 June 2026, extending to 2040: $3.7B in LEU, of which $3.0B is contingent LEU and HALEU sales tied to building capacity at Piketon and $2.4B of that under definitive agreements, against $2.3B contingent at the end of 2025; Technical Solutions' $0.8B is the HALEU operation contract.
against this

The contingent sales 'tend to relate to achievement of operational milestones' at a plant not yet built, and the $0.8B Technical Solutions backlog is a contract DOE does not intend to extend (S01).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C37management claimmedium confidence
For 2026 management guides revenue of $450M to $500M and capital deployment of $350M to $500M, driven by its centrifuge manufacturing build.
against this

Consensus for Q3 revenue is about $64M (pack), far below the $176.1M of Q2, so the year leans on lumpy LEU deliveries (S15).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C08facthigh confidence
DOE's HALEU operation contract is ending: Option 1b runs to 30 September 2026 at a fixed $15M for maintenance and storage with no production, DOE does not intend to exercise further options, and its 2027 budget request does not fund the cascade; Centrus has produced nearly 2 tonnes of HALEU under it.
against this

Centrus is working with DOE on agreements to run the cascade privately on a commercial basis (S01).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
What management did with the money

Insiders in 2026Q3: 1 purchases and 2 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Full. The price already pays for a big new plant earning at today's high prices, before anyone knows what it costs to build.

Share price
$109.42
close,
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
26.8
its 6-year normal 7.3

The shares have fallen from $464 in October 2025 to near their lowest in a year, and in September Centrus sold $500M of new shares and warrants.

In December it holds its first investor day at the Ohio site, where it says it will set out its long-term plan. That is when the plant's cost and size may finally be known.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C25facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $139.27 on 2 October 2026, 58% lower over 252 sessions and 70% below the $464.25 high of October 2025; the multiple of revenue per share fell 53% while revenue per share fell 10%.
current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C23facthigh confidence
In September 2026 Centrus raised $500M at $199.64 a unit: 500,000 shares and 2,005,513 pre-funded warrants, plus 6,992,382 warrants in four series exercisable at $226.86, $272.24, $317.61 and $362.98, expiring two to five years out.
current state · 2026-09-11written 2026-10-04
C11facthigh confidence
No filing, release or 2026 call gives the expansion's total cost, its capacity in SWU or its number of centrifuges; management says it will set out its long-term outlook at a first Investor Day at Piketon in December 2026.
current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C29management claimmedium confidence
Management says it has met the financing contingency on more than $3B of customer contracts, expects the first new capacity in 2029, signed a letter of intent to supply HALEU for up to five Oklo Aurora powerhouses from 2029, and that NNSA intends to sole-source certain enrichment from Centrus.
against this

The 2007 plan for the same site promised 3.8 million SWU by 2012 and ended in a 2014 bankruptcy (C12).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
The betPriced for success
If it works
1.8×
from today's value, at the stated multiple
If it fails
keep 44%
of today's market value: the rest of the company, less its debt
How we read the multiple

Counting its cash, the whole company is valued at about $1.95B. For the price to work:

  1. The existing trading is worth about $225M, since its supply runs out within a few years.
  2. That leaves about $1.7B for the plant.
  3. Valued at a common 11 times its yearly profit before interest, tax and wear, it must earn about $157M a year.
  4. At today's spot price and Urenco's margin, that takes about 2 million SWU a year, more than its signed contracts cover.

Against its own history. Buyers are paying far more for each dollar of today's profit than they used to, because they are paying for a plant that does not yet exist.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C27inferencemedium confidence
At $1.95B of company value, less about $225M for the trading business, the price pays about $1.7B for the plant: at 11 times EBITDA that is about $157M a year, some 2 million SWU at the $200 spot and Urenco's 38.4% margin, before the plant's cost is known.
derivedPack company value (C26), the trading business's value (C21), spot price (C14) and Urenco's margin (C16), at a stated 11 times EBITDA for an enricher with no listed peer.
against this

On September's shares and cash the market value is about $3.1B and net cash about $1.2B, which leaves company value near $1.95B either way; and DOE's $900M pays for part of the HALEU build (C23, C09).

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C26factmedium confidence
The pack values the company at $1.95B against a $2.64B market value, 26.8 times trailing EBITDA against a 7.3 median over prior years, and 4.1 times trailing sales; its market value uses a share count from before September's raise.
current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C21estimatemedium confidence
The trading business earns about $75M a year before growth spending, its 2025 LEU gross profit of $111.5M less $36.2M of SG&A, and as a run-off is worth about three times that, roughly $225M.
derivedFiled 2025 segment gross profit and SG&A (C02), with the run-off from C20; the multiple is a judgement of a business with three to four years of supply left.
against this

First-half 2026 LEU gross profit of $79.5M runs ahead of 2025's pace, and new sales at a $200 spot carry wider margins (C03, C14).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C14facthigh confidence
Spot enrichment averaged about $200 per SWU at the end of December 2025, up from $193 a year earlier, as reported by TradeTech and UxC.
against this

US buyers paid an average of $108.70 per SWU in 2025, so most enrichment still sells near half the spot price (S09).

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C16facthigh confidence
Urenco earned EBITDA of EUR804.2M on revenue of EUR2,096.2M in 2025, a 38.4% margin, with an order book of EUR21.3B running into the 2040s; three new cascades came online at its US site in 2025 and its programme adds 2.5 million SWU of capacity plus a further 750,000.
historical · FY 2025written 2026-10-04
Priced against its rivals

None of the listed rivals above sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.

The bet: what it pays if it works

This is a bet that the Ohio plant gets built and sells about twice the fuel its customers have already signed for, filling part of the gap Russia leaves. Even then, valued like a steady fuel supplier, the company would be worth only a little more than today.

If the plant slips or costs far more, the old trading runs out and shareholders keep its last years of profit and whatever cash is left: about a third of today's value.

Domestic enrichment build-out at Piketon EBITDA in two to three yearsMillion SWU a year of new Piketon capacity neededAt the stated multiple
$105.00Mabout 1 at 38% kept1.0×
$210.00M (the big win)about 3 at 38% kept1.8×
$292.00Mabout 4 at 38% kept2.5×

To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $230.98M of Domestic enrichment build-out at Piketon EBITDA (about 3 million SWU a year of new Piketon capacity at 38% kept); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $608.14M of Domestic enrichment build-out at Piketon EBITDA (about 8 million SWU a year of new Piketon capacity at 38% kept), at the same multiple.

Each row is Domestic enrichment build-out at Piketon alone, plus the rest of the company (LEU trading business) counted at about $225.00M.

The steps it has to take

  • Done DOE's $900M HALEU task order signed
  • Done Financing contingency met on more than $3B of customer contracts
  • Done Definitive HALEU contracts with prepayments from X-energy, Radiant and Antares
  • Not started The plant's cost, capacity and schedule published at the first Investor Day due 2026-12
  • In progress High-rate centrifuge manufacturing running in Oak Ridge due 2027-12
  • Not started First new centrifuges online in Piketon due 2029-12
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet at about
≈ $63.21
42% below the price (close, )
The option
2.0×
what Domestic enrichment build-out at Piketon is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C21estimatemedium confidence
The trading business earns about $75M a year before growth spending, its 2025 LEU gross profit of $111.5M less $36.2M of SG&A, and as a run-off is worth about three times that, roughly $225M.
derivedFiled 2025 segment gross profit and SG&A (C02), with the run-off from C20; the multiple is a judgement of a business with three to four years of supply left.
against this

First-half 2026 LEU gross profit of $79.5M runs ahead of 2025's pace, and new sales at a $200 spot carry wider margins (C03, C14).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C20inferencemedium confidence
Without its own plant the trading business runs off: its Russian supply ends after 2027 to 2028 and Orano's in 2030, and the LEU backlog outside the contingent contracts is about $0.7B.
derivedSupply end dates (C04, C05) and the LEU backlog of $3.7B less its $3.0B contingent part (C06).
against this

The trade agreement sets aside Russian quota for Centrus through 2028, and management reports strong order momentum and rising long-term prices (S03, S05).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C35estimatelow confidence
The $3.0B contingent contracts spread over 2029 to 2040 is about $270M of revenue a year, about $105M of EBITDA at Urenco's 38.4% margin, or roughly 1.4 million SWU at the $200 spot.
derivedContingent backlog and its end date (C06), Urenco's margin (C16) and spot (C14), spread evenly over eleven years.
against this

Contract prices lag spot by years and a first plant runs below a mature one's margin, so the contracts may earn less than this (S01, C13).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C33inferencemedium confidence
US reactor owners must replace about 3.4 million SWU a year of Russian supply once waivers end after 2027, a quarter of what they bought in 2025.
derived26% of 13 million SWU (C13) against the ban's end date (C05).
against this

Waivers have been granted before, and some 2025 Russian deliveries may already sit in utilities' inventories (S01).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C11facthigh confidence
No filing, release or 2026 call gives the expansion's total cost, its capacity in SWU or its number of centrifuges; management says it will set out its long-term outlook at a first Investor Day at Piketon in December 2026.
current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C23facthigh confidence
In September 2026 Centrus raised $500M at $199.64 a unit: 500,000 shares and 2,005,513 pre-funded warrants, plus 6,992,382 warrants in four series exercisable at $226.86, $272.24, $317.61 and $362.98, expiring two to five years out.
current state · 2026-09-11written 2026-10-04

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

America's enrichment champion: the only US-owned centrifuge, $3B of contracts waiting for its plant, government money behind it, and a halved share price.

We believe

The trading that earns today's profit runs out, and the plant that replaces it has no published cost, size or margin yet.

The coverage counts the contracts; the filing says they depend on a plant nobody has costed. The contracts are real and growing, which is the best evidence against us.

We would be wrong if Centrus shows a plant of at least 3 million SWU a year at a sensible cost, with signed contracts above $3.5B. Over a quarter of the shares available are sold short.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
63%
of 19, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
69%
of 16, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C28facthigh confidence
Of 19 analysts in FMP's dated series on 1 October 2026, 12 rate buy or strong buy, 63.2% against 68.8% of 16 in June; 28.7% of the float was short at the 15 September settlement, 7.0 days to cover; no insider bought on the open market in a year, and the finance chief sold 306 shares at $203.55 in May outside any plan.
current state · 2026-10-01written 2026-10-04
C06facthigh confidence
Backlog was $4.5B at 30 June 2026, extending to 2040: $3.7B in LEU, of which $3.0B is contingent LEU and HALEU sales tied to building capacity at Piketon and $2.4B of that under definitive agreements, against $2.3B contingent at the end of 2025; Technical Solutions' $0.8B is the HALEU operation contract.
against this

The contingent sales 'tend to relate to achievement of operational milestones' at a plant not yet built, and the $0.8B Technical Solutions backlog is a contract DOE does not intend to extend (S01).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C11facthigh confidence
No filing, release or 2026 call gives the expansion's total cost, its capacity in SWU or its number of centrifuges; management says it will set out its long-term outlook at a first Investor Day at Piketon in December 2026.
current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C20inferencemedium confidence
Without its own plant the trading business runs off: its Russian supply ends after 2027 to 2028 and Orano's in 2030, and the LEU backlog outside the contingent contracts is about $0.7B.
derivedSupply end dates (C04, C05) and the LEU backlog of $3.7B less its $3.0B contingent part (C06).
against this

The trade agreement sets aside Russian quota for Centrus through 2028, and management reports strong order momentum and rising long-term prices (S03, S05).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C27inferencemedium confidence
At $1.95B of company value, less about $225M for the trading business, the price pays about $1.7B for the plant: at 11 times EBITDA that is about $157M a year, some 2 million SWU at the $200 spot and Urenco's 38.4% margin, before the plant's cost is known.
derivedPack company value (C26), the trading business's value (C21), spot price (C14) and Urenco's margin (C16), at a stated 11 times EBITDA for an enricher with no listed peer.
against this

On September's shares and cash the market value is about $3.1B and net cash about $1.2B, which leaves company value near $1.95B either way; and DOE's $900M pays for part of the HALEU build (C23, C09).

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • Russian supply stops early If permits are refused or Russia halts shipments before 2027 ends, Centrus cannot fill much of what it has sold.
  • The plant costs more Orano's French expansion cost about $760 per unit of yearly capacity; a new US plant may cost far more.
  • It has failed before A 2007 plan for this site promised 3.8 million SWU by 2012, cost $2.3B, and ended in bankruptcy.
  • More new shares It sold shares and warrants in September; an expensive plant could need more.
  • Rivals arrive first Urenco adds US capacity by 2027, two years before Centrus's first machines.
  • The government's rights The government can use Centrus's centrifuge design for its own purposes without paying for it.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C05facthigh confidence
US law has banned Russian LEU imports since August 2024 except under DOE waivers, and Centrus's waivers cover committed deliveries only through 2027; Russia's own decree, extended through 2027, requires an export licence for each TENEX shipment.
against this

A third waiver request covering 2026 and 2027 sales is pending, and TENEX has received its licences except for isolated delays (S01).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C04facthigh confidence
TENEX supplies Centrus under a contract running through 2028 at prices reset to 2018's lower market, and Orano through 2030; through 2027 well over half of the LEU Centrus expects to deliver was sourced from TENEX, and its other sources are not sufficient to replace it.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C12facthigh confidence
In 2007 USEC, Centrus's predecessor, was licensed to build the American Centrifuge Plant at Piketon: 11,500 machines and about 3.8 million SWU by 2012, at an estimated $2.3B. The 10-K now calls it a demonstration facility, says the US has had no national-security enrichment since 2013, and the company emerged from bankruptcy on 30 September 2014.
historical · 2007 to 2014written 2026-10-04
C19estimatelow confidence
Orano's French extension costs about $760 per SWU of yearly capacity (USD1.9B for 2.5 million SWU); at that rate a 2 million SWU plant would cost about $1.5B and a 3.8 million SWU plant about $2.9B.
derivedOrano's stated cost and capacity (C17) applied to Centrus's possible plant sizes; Centrus publishes no cost (C11).
against this

Orano is extending an operating plant with proven modules, so a new US hall should cost more per SWU, and Project IKE alone is a $5B plan (S11, S13).

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C23facthigh confidence
In September 2026 Centrus raised $500M at $199.64 a unit: 500,000 shares and 2,005,513 pre-funded warrants, plus 6,992,382 warrants in four series exercisable at $226.86, $272.24, $317.61 and $362.98, expiring two to five years out.
current state · 2026-09-11written 2026-10-04
C17factmedium confidence
Urenco's US plant at Eunice, New Mexico produces about 4.6 million SWU a year and is adding about 700,000, due to finish in 2027; Orano is spending EUR1.7B (USD1.9B) to add 2.5 million SWU to its French plant.
current state · 2026-03-12written 2026-10-04
C40facthigh confidence
DOE holds an irrevocable, royalty-free right to use Centrus's centrifuge technology for government purposes, and a commercial licence capped at $665M of royalties if Centrus misses its 2002 agreement's milestones or abandons deployment.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
What we still do not know
  • What the Ohio plant will cost, how much fuel it will make each year, and when it reaches full output.
  • At what prices and volumes the $2.4B of contracts were signed, and how large the advance payments are.
  • Whether the government will allow Russian deliveries in 2028, the last year of the supply contract.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C11facthigh confidence
No filing, release or 2026 call gives the expansion's total cost, its capacity in SWU or its number of centrifuges; management says it will set out its long-term outlook at a first Investor Day at Piketon in December 2026.
current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C06facthigh confidence
Backlog was $4.5B at 30 June 2026, extending to 2040: $3.7B in LEU, of which $3.0B is contingent LEU and HALEU sales tied to building capacity at Piketon and $2.4B of that under definitive agreements, against $2.3B contingent at the end of 2025; Technical Solutions' $0.8B is the HALEU operation contract.
against this

The contingent sales 'tend to relate to achievement of operational milestones' at a plant not yet built, and the $0.8B Technical Solutions backlog is a contract DOE does not intend to extend (S01).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C30facthigh confidence
Centrus signed definitive multi-year HALEU contracts with X-energy (6 August 2026, LEU and HALEU, with prepayments), Radiant (9 September) and Antares (17 September, with prepayments), deliveries starting before the end of the decade; none discloses a volume or price.
current state · 2026-09-17written 2026-10-04
C05facthigh confidence
US law has banned Russian LEU imports since August 2024 except under DOE waivers, and Centrus's waivers cover committed deliveries only through 2027; Russia's own decree, extended through 2027, requires an export licence for each TENEX shipment.
against this

A third waiver request covering 2026 and 2027 sales is pending, and TENEX has received its licences except for isolated delays (S01).

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04

What would change our view

  1. Unattractive→NeutralThe plant is sized and costed, and it is big enough

    It needs all of:

    • ○Centrus publishes what the plant will cost and shows it can make at least 3 million SWU a year.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
    • ○Signed contracts waiting on the plant pass $3.5B.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
  2. Unattractive→AttractiveThe plant runs on time and the contracts double

    It needs all of:

    • ○The first new machines run in Ohio in 2029, as planned.watched as it happens
    • ○Signed contracts waiting on the plant pass $5B.checked at the next results, due by 4 Nov
We would also be wrong if
  • The government refuses more permits, or Russian deliveries stop, before the end of 2027.
  • Centrus sells more shares before it publishes the plant's cost and size.

What is coming

  • 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether contingent backlog grows past $3.0B, whether any plant cost or capacity is given, and spending against the $350M to $500M capital guide.
Every dated event ahead
  • 4 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether contingent backlog grows past $3.0B, whether any plant cost or capacity is given, and spending against the $350M to $500M capital guide.
  • December 2026 First Investor Day at Piketon: The plant's cost, SWU capacity and schedule: whether it reaches the roughly 2 million SWU a year the price already pays for, and at what cost per SWU.
  • February 2027 Q4 2026 results and the 2026 10-K: 2026 against the $450M to $500M revenue guide, Technical Solutions after DOE's production funding ended, and whether TENEX deliveries held.
  • December 2027 Russian import waivers end for committed deliveries: Whether Centrus finds waivers or other supply for 2028, or the trading business starts running off as C20 expects.
Since we wrote this
Written
4 Oct
Price the thesis read
$139.27
2 Oct
Latest close
$109.42
close, · -21.4% since
  • 29 OctNewsCentrus shipped its first new centrifuge ahead of target, still with no plant cost. View heldCentrus shipped its first new centrifuge from Oak Ridge to Ohio.
  • 28 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Speculation to Priced for successRe-priced at the 27 October close; the rating moved from Fair bet to Expensive bet.
  • 26 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Priced for success to SpeculationRe-priced at the 23 October close; the rating moved from Expensive bet to Fair bet.
  • 19 OctNewsCentrus bought its casing supplier for $116 million, and still gave no plant cost. View heldCentrus acquired Westerman Holdings, a centrifuge-parts maker.
  • 5 OctThesis reviewThe bet now names what it ridesThe owner asked that every bet name the macro trend behind it, after BWXT's bet was missing its chief executive's case for nuclear over gas.
  • 4 OctThesis writtenUnattractive, medium convictionWritten two months after the June-quarter print and three weeks after the September offering, with the shares near their 52-week low.
  • 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.

Also checked 1 time with nothing new to act on.

Sources 17

Where this came from

Sources - 17

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-08-06
    segment results, backlog and its contingent part, the TENEX and Russian-waiver risk factors, the HALEU contract's end, DOE's task order, cash, convertible notes, share counts and the build plan
    backsC01C03C04C05C06C08C09C10C11C12C22C24C25C26C29C36C44C45
  2. S02primarycompany release2026-08-05
    quarter and half-year income statement, segment commentary, the non-GAAP reconciliation and 2026 guidance
    backsC03C11C24C37C38
  3. S03primarycompany filing2026-02-11
    the business, competition and market size, supply contracts, customer concentration, the national-security rule, DOE's rights to the technology and the notes' terms
    backsC01C02C04C06C07C11C12C15C22C31C40C44C45
  4. S04primarycompany release2026-02-10
    the 2025 income statement by revenue line, segment gross profit and the cash-flow statement
    backsC02C36
  5. S05primarytranscript2026-08-06
    Centrus Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)
    the financing contingency, the 2029 date, the Oklo letter of intent, NNSA's sole-source intent, nearly 2 tonnes of HALEU, the December Investor Day and the analysts' questions on Russian supply and timing
    Recall that Centrus is the only viable production-ready technology that can meet national security needs.
    backsC08C11C29
  6. S07primarycompany filing2026-09-11
    the $500M offering: shares, pre-funded warrants, the four warrant series and their prices
    backsC23C26
  7. S08primaryregulator2026-01-05
    the three $900M awards: American Centrifuge Operating and General Matter for HALEU, Orano Federal Services for LEU
    The following companies were awarded task orders totaling $2.7 billion to provide enrichment services for LEU and HALEU
    backsC09C18
  8. S09primarygovernment data2026-07-29
    SWU bought by US owners and operators in 2025, the average price, and the shares by origin: 23% US, 26% Russia, 18% France, 14% UK, 8% Netherlands
    The average price paid by the COOs for the 13 million SWU was $108.70 per SWU in 2025, up 11% from the $97.66 per SWU paid in 2024. In 2025, the U.S.-origin SWU share was 23%, and the foreign-origin SWU accounted for the remaining 77%. Foreign-origin SWU included 26% from Russia, 18% from France, 14% from the United Kingdom, and 8% from the Netherlands (Table 16).
    backsC13
  9. S10primarycompany release2026-03-12
    revenue, EBITDA and its 38.4% margin, the order book, US cascades added in 2025, the capacity programme and the spot price of $200 per SWU
    From an average US$193/SWU at the end of 2024, as reported by TradeTech and UxC, they reached an average of US$200/SWU by the end of December 2025.
    backsC14C16C17
  10. S11secondarynews2024-10-11
    Urenco USA's capacity and 700,000 SWU addition due 2027; Orano's EUR1.7 billion, 2.5 million SWU French extension
    The plant currently has a production capacity of 4600 tSWU per year.
    backsC17
  11. S12secondarynews2007-04-16
    the 2007 licence: 11,500 machines, about 3.8 million SWU by 2012, $2.3 billion
    Costs for the new plant are estimated at $2.3 billion.
    backsC12
  12. S13secondarynews2026-01-06
    each awardee's plan: Orano's $5 billion Project IKE from 2031, General Matter at Paducah, GLE's laser plant and its $28.5M
    If the plan holds, the facility will begin producing LEU in 2031.
    backsC18
  13. S14primarycompany release2026-08-06
    a definitive LEU and HALEU contract with prepayments; no volume or price
    Under the contract, X-energy will provide prepayments to Centrus to support its domestic commercial enrichment capacity program.
    backsC30
  14. S15secondaryvendor data2026-10-04
    Research pack (FMP market data and FINRA short interest), as of 4 October 2026
    price, returns and the price decomposition, company value and multiples, the analyst series, short interest, insider rows and the Q3 consensus
    backsC24C25C26C28
  15. S16primarycompany release2026-09-09
    a definitive multi-year HALEU contract with prepayments, and the unobligated claim; no volume or price
    Centrus' AC100 centrifuge design is the only deployment-ready U.S.-origin technology available for unobligated enrichment today.
    backsC30C31
  16. S17primarycompany release2026-09-17
    a definitive multi-year HALEU contract with prepayments, deliveries before the end of the decade; no volume or price
    The new contract includes prepayments from Antares to support the expanded HALEU capacity.
    backsC30
  17. S18primarycompany filing2026-04-24
    the executive officers and their start dates, beneficial ownership at 27 March 2026, the Class B holders, the 2025 corporate goals and payout, the long-term award's net income test and the CEO's employment agreement
    backsC41C42C43
Rendered from content/LEU/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-04. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.