Constellation Energy
America's biggest owner of nuclear power stations, selling their round-the-clock, carbon-free electricity to tech companies on contracts of up to twenty years.
The scores
Growth3/4 ↑
TTM revenue growth sits almost exactly at the three-peer median, though it is driven by the Calpine consolidation rather than organic expansion.
Business quality3/4 →
Scarce, licensed nuclear capacity backs real pricing power, but behind-the-meter self-supply is a genuine substitute for the grid-connected PPA model this depends on.
Financial position3/4 ↓
Investment-grade ratings and $7.4B of liquidity at year-end, but total debt has nearly tripled in six months funding Calpine and free cash flow is negative.
Execution record4/4 ↑
A fourth consecutive year of exceeding guidance midpoint, plus two guidance raises in 2026 alone, through the largest acquisition in the company's history.
Per share capture3/4 →
The Calpine shares were real, one-time dilution funding a genuine asset; the June 2026 secondary itself added no incremental dilution and funded a buyback.
Potential3/4 ↑
The broadest signed demand pipeline in this coverage, but the prize is deliberately uncomposed and most of the newest batch remains unnamed.
Risk profile3/4 →
Investment-grade ratings and diversified counterparties cushion real, correlated risk from PJM's cost-allocation reform, rising leverage and the 2027 lock-up unlock.
Valuation2/4 →
A real premium to Constellation's own five-year history, on a cohort too thin (one to three comparable peers per metric) to move the score.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Central claims rest on primary filings and the call, cross-checked against independent EIA/AGA/Cleanview data, though the cohort is thin and one margin reading looks off.
The Verdict
We rate Constellation neutral. It runs America's largest fleet of nuclear power stations and sells their round-the-clock, carbon-free power to tech companies on long contracts, the broadest set of signed data-centre deals among the power companies we cover, so the business is solid. The price already knows that: it costs more per dollar of profit than in its own recent years, while debt nearly tripled to buy Calpine. So it is full, not cheap. The view hinges on new deals with named buyers arriving, the Three Mile Island restart staying on time and a proposed grid rule leaving existing plants alone.
The long caseData centres want round-the-clock power faster than grids can add it, and Constellation's nuclear plants sell it; new contracts must keep coming without grid rule changes hurting them.
The evidence under this - 9 claims
The restart remains subject to further permitting and construction milestones beyond the two clearances disclosed with the Q2 2026 print, so a 2027 restart date is management's own targeted timeline rather than a settled fact; delays to comparable large nuclear restarts have occurred industry-wide in the past.
Only Walmart (176 MW of the 920 MW total) is named; the remaining roughly 744 MW is described only as 'a diverse set of investment grade customers' with no per-customer volume or term disclosed, and management explicitly declined on the earnings call to disclose specific pricing or customer identity, citing customer sensitivity - so the breadth of the demand pipeline beyond Walmart cannot be independently verified from what has been disclosed.
The company
A data centre needs electricity every hour of every day, and big tech buyers want it free of carbon. Nuclear supplies about 19% of America's electricity, the largest carbon-free source that runs around the clock, and Constellation owns more of it than anyone.
The January purchase of Calpine, for about $22B, added about 23 gigawatts, mostly gas plants, plus California's largest geothermal complex and a retail business. A buyer's alternative is paying the day's market price for power, or building its own plant.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
How it makes money
It sells the power its plants generate, into regional markets and, increasingly, under long contracts at a fixed price. Those contracts are the story: 15 to 20 years of income from investment-grade buyers. It also sells electricity and gas directly to about 2.5 million customer accounts.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Only Walmart (176 MW of the 920 MW total) is named; the remaining roughly 744 MW is described only as 'a diverse set of investment grade customers' with no per-customer volume or term disclosed, and management explicitly declined on the earnings call to disclose specific pricing or customer identity, citing customer sensitivity - so the breadth of the demand pipeline beyond Walmart cannot be independently verified from what has been disclosed.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (H1 2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Power and power-related | 59.0% | Electricity from its nuclear, gas and renewable plants, sold wholesale and to retail and business customers, including state clean-power programme payments. |
| Other revenue sources (derivatives, leases) | 28.1% | Energy contracts accounted for as derivatives or leases, plus amortisation of Calpine's acquired contracts; moves with hedge marks and commodity prices. |
| Natural gas | 6.8% | Gas sold to wholesale and retail customers, largely through the competitive retail business. |
| Capacity | 4.4% | Payments for keeping plants available, from grid-operator capacity auctions and bilateral contracts. |
| Other energy products | 1.6% | Other energy-related products and sustainability services sold to business customers. |
Who runs it
Joe Dominguez has run Constellation since it split from Exelon in 2022, and has beaten his own profit forecast every year since. Shane Smith took over the books when Calpine was bought. Insiders own under 1% of the company, so they gain little directly from the share price. Most of the bonus rides on yearly profit, and most of the share awards on cash generated before growth spending and on how the stock does against rivals; nothing rewards return on the money invested.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Free cash flow before growth excludes growth spending by its name, so the Crane restart and uprates cost the plan nothing until they earn; and the free-cash-flow goals for the 2024-2026 and 2025-2027 awards were raised for Calpine without being disclosed, so how stretching they are cannot be checked until 2027.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
The scarce thing is licensed, working nuclear capacity, and nobody can build comparable new capacity this decade. That scarcity is why Microsoft signed for 20 years to restart a closed reactor at Three Mile Island, and Meta for 20 years of a whole plant's output from June 2027.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
The restart remains subject to further permitting and construction milestones beyond the two clearances disclosed with the Q2 2026 print, so a 2027 restart date is management's own targeted timeline rather than a settled fact; delays to comparable large nuclear restarts have occurred industry-wide in the past.
The threat
The biggest buyers may skip the grid. Nearly every hyperscaler is now building power plants on its own sites, and OpenAI and Anthropic alone have leased more than 10 gigawatts of it: demand that never reaches a seller like Constellation. Rival generators chase the same deals, and management will not name the customers or prices in its current talks.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
Much of the reported behind-the-meter build-out still runs on natural gas rather than nuclear, and depends on sites where a buyer can secure its own generation and fuel supply fast enough - a real substitute for the intermediary PPA path, but not a substitute for the specific 24/7 carbon-free attribute nuclear PPAs like Constellation's uniquely offer.
Management's repeated refusal to disclose pricing or counterparty detail across two consecutive calls means the market cannot independently verify how much of the 6 GW/5 GW opportunity Constellation is actually converting versus merely discussing.
The rivals: SPCX, NRG, VST, TLN, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX | Hyperscalers and data-center operators building their own behind-the-meter gas generation (xAI, and others tracked industry-wide) rather than buying grid-connected nuclear power through a long-term PPAPriced against it: Different product | On sale | Different product |
| Not listed | Other-basin and other-fuel generation growth (new gas-fired capacity in other RTOs, or other nuclear operators extending their own licenses) competing for the same data-center demand poolPriced against it: Not listed | On sale | Not listed |
| NRG | NRG EnergyPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| VST | VistraPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| TLN | Talen EnergyPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
How big it could get
How big this could get
The market is data-centre electricity signed on long contracts. Government forecasts have data-centre servers rising from about 7% of American commercial buildings' electricity in 2025 to between 22% and 33% by 2050. Against that, Constellation has named about 2,135 megawatts of deals since September 2024. Nobody publishes what share of the whole any one seller wins.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The restart remains subject to further permitting and construction milestones beyond the two clearances disclosed with the Q2 2026 print, so a 2027 restart date is management's own targeted timeline rather than a settled fact; delays to comparable large nuclear restarts have occurred industry-wide in the past.
Only Walmart (176 MW of the 920 MW total) is named; the remaining roughly 744 MW is described only as 'a diverse set of investment grade customers' with no per-customer volume or term disclosed, and management explicitly declined on the earnings call to disclose specific pricing or customer identity, citing customer sensitivity - so the breadth of the demand pipeline beyond Walmart cannot be independently verified from what has been disclosed.
Who has signed
Microsoft signed for about 835 megawatts for 20 years, and Meta for a whole plant, about 1,092 megawatts, for 20 years from June 2027. CyrusOne signed for 380 megawatts in Texas. In August another 920 megawatts arrived, of which only Walmart's 176 is named.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The restart remains subject to further permitting and construction milestones beyond the two clearances disclosed with the Q2 2026 print, so a 2027 restart date is management's own targeted timeline rather than a settled fact; delays to comparable large nuclear restarts have occurred industry-wide in the past.
Only Walmart (176 MW of the 920 MW total) is named; the remaining roughly 744 MW is described only as 'a diverse set of investment grade customers' with no per-customer volume or term disclosed, and management explicitly declined on the earnings call to disclose specific pricing or customer identity, citing customer sensitivity - so the breadth of the demand pipeline beyond Walmart cannot be independently verified from what has been disclosed.
The results
The numbers
Sales grew 26% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 8.3% in the year to Dec 2025.
Operating margin is 15%, up from 6.5% in the year to Dec 2023.
Yearly sales growth has ranged from −5.4% to +24% over the last 5 years, with sales falling in 1 of them.
Each dollar put into the business earns 7.9% a year after tax, about where it was (5.7%) in the year to Dec 2023.
It turned 1.0% of sales into free cash, $309M over the last twelve months.
It owes $24.0B more than the cash it holds, about 5.7 years of the cash its operations bring in.
The share count rose 9.4% in 3.5 years.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in December.
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | 12 mo to Jun 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $19.6B | $24.4B | $24.9B | $23.6B | $25.5B | $31.3B |
| Sales growth | +12% | +24% | +2.0% | −5.4% | +8.3% | +26% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Operating margin | −1.8% | 2.0% | 6.5% | 18% | 12% | 15% |
| Net margin | −1.0% | −0.7% | 6.5% | 16% | 9.1% | 11% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Pay in shares | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | - |
| Capital spending | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 11% | 12% | 12% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | −$1.34B | −$2.35B | −$5.30B | −$2.46B | $4.24B | $4.21B |
| Free cash flow | −$2.67B | −$4.04B | −$7.72B | −$5.03B | $1.29B | $309M |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $504M | $422M | $368M | $3.02B | $3.64B | $697M |
| Debt | $7.88B | $5.77B | $9.26B | $8.41B | $8.99B | $24.7B |
| Net cash | −$7.37B | −$5.35B | −$8.89B | −$5.39B | −$5.35B | −$24.0B |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Return on capital | - | - | 5.7% | 17% | 9.1% | 7.9% |
| Shares (diluted) | 0 | 329M | 324M | 315M | 314M | 360M |
What growth costs
Constellation grows by buying power plants and spending on its own, not by selling harder, so the usual cost lines tell little. Its spending on plants has taken a larger share of every sales dollar each year, while profit margins have swung with power prices and trading gains. Whether growing makes it more or less profitable cannot be read from the costs yet.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
The last report (6 Aug)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
The second quarter of 2026 shows why the headline profit is hard to read. Reported earnings were $1.42 a share, against $4.49 in the first quarter, because gains and losses on the company's hedges pass straight through reported profit. On management's adjusted measure, which strips those out, it earned $2.55.
The number that mattered was the forecast. Management raised its full-year adjusted range to $11.50 to $12.50 a share, from $11.00 to $12.00. The shares fell just 1.5% on the day.
What it did to the thesisIt backed the case that the nuclear fleet earns steadily and management keeps delivering, since it raised its forecast. It did not answer the open question behind the Neutral view: whether new long contracts keep arriving fast enough to justify a price with little room for a setback.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $2.55 against $2.29 expected; $1.42 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Roughly $895M of the swing between Q1 2026 and Q1 2025 GAAP net income traces to non-cash, unrealized hedge and decommissioning-remeasurement items rather than to operating performance - the same GAAP-versus-adjusted-earnings distortion this repo's other merchant-generator theses (VST, NRG, TLN) document, meaning the GAAP EPS print materially overstates the quarter's operating improvement on its own.
What management did with the money
It paid for Calpine with 50 million new shares and about $4.5B in cash, and debt rose to about $24.7B from about $9.0B in six months. When Calpine's former owners sold 11 million shares in June, Constellation bought back about $558M of them itself.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Despite the offering carrying zero net primary dilution (the Company sold no shares and repurchased a portion at the same price), the stock still fell 7.7% on the announcement, a measured, volume-relevant reaction - a real technical/supply-overhang cost distinct from actual dilution, and a pattern that could repeat when the remaining 25 million lock-up shares unlock in June 2027.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Full. Constellation has a real advantage in nuclear power that big buyers sign long contracts for, but the price leaves little room for a setback: it pays for new deals that must keep arriving.
The shares are about a third below their high of the past year. Two tests are close.
The September-quarter results on 9 November show whether the forecast rises again and whether any new buyer is named. And PJM, which runs the grid across the mid-Atlantic, is weighing rules that would charge new capacity costs to data centres, the very customers this story depends on.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Only Walmart (176 MW of the 920 MW total) is named; the remaining roughly 744 MW is described only as 'a diverse set of investment grade customers' with no per-customer volume or term disclosed, and management explicitly declined on the earnings call to disclose specific pricing or customer identity, citing customer sensitivity - so the breadth of the demand pipeline beyond Walmart cannot be independently verified from what has been disclosed.
How we read the multiple
Buyers pay about 26.5 times the last year's profit, against about 21 in Constellation's own recent years. On this year's forecast profit it is about 22.7. Against its rivals it sits near the middle.
The extra over its own past pays for the long contracts already signed. It holds only if new deals keep being named and the Three Mile Island reactor restarts in 2027 as planned.
Against its own history. Dearer than its own recent years. The signed contracts are genuinely new, so part of the higher price is earned rather than merely paid.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The restart remains subject to further permitting and construction milestones beyond the two clearances disclosed with the Q2 2026 print, so a 2027 restart date is management's own targeted timeline rather than a settled fact; delays to comparable large nuclear restarts have occurred industry-wide in the past.
Only Walmart (176 MW of the 920 MW total) is named; the remaining roughly 744 MW is described only as 'a diverse set of investment grade customers' with no per-customer volume or term disclosed, and management explicitly declined on the earnings call to disclose specific pricing or customer identity, citing customer sensitivity - so the breadth of the demand pipeline beyond Walmart cannot be independently verified from what has been disclosed.
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of sales, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | company value for each $1 of sales |
|---|---|---|
| NRG | NRG Energy | 1.3× |
| CEG | Constellation Energy | 3.9× |
| VST | Vistra | 4.1× |
| TLN | Talen Energy | 6.7× |
The middle of the other 3 is 4.1. Constellation Energy Corporation is 2nd cheapest of 4.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
Near the middle of the power producers it competes with, so the rich price is largely the group's, not Constellation's alone.
Where we disagree with the market
The clean, nuclear way to own the AI-power boom, with Calpine mostly a story about getting bigger.
The higher price is mostly earned by scale, long nuclear licences and the best signed pipeline here, but it leaves little room for a setback.
Coverage treats the Calpine debt and the grid-rule debate as footnotes. We think they are the two clearest risks to that higher price: debt nearly tripled in six months, and the proposed rule would charge the very customers the contracts are sold to.
We are wrong if deals keep being named, Three Mile Island restarts on time and the rule leaves existing plants alone.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Only Walmart (176 MW of the 920 MW total) is named; the remaining roughly 744 MW is described only as 'a diverse set of investment grade customers' with no per-customer volume or term disclosed, and management explicitly declined on the earnings call to disclose specific pricing or customer identity, citing customer sensitivity - so the breadth of the demand pipeline beyond Walmart cannot be independently verified from what has been disclosed.
The restart remains subject to further permitting and construction milestones beyond the two clearances disclosed with the Q2 2026 print, so a 2027 restart date is management's own targeted timeline rather than a settled fact; delays to comparable large nuclear restarts have occurred industry-wide in the past.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- Debt nearly tripled. Debt rose from about $9.0B to about $24.7B in six months, while spending on plants left free cash flow near zero.
- A rule aimed at its customers. The National Energy Dominance Council has urged the grid operator to charge new capacity costs to data centres, the buyers the whole contract story depends on.
- More shares coming. About 25 million Calpine shares unlock in June 2027. The last early sale knocked 7.7% off the price.
- A restart that could slip. Microsoft's contract rests on restarting Three Mile Island in 2027. Approvals are clearing, but the reactor is not running yet.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
Despite the offering carrying zero net primary dilution (the Company sold no shares and repurchased a portion at the same price), the stock still fell 7.7% on the announcement, a measured, volume-relevant reaction - a real technical/supply-overhang cost distinct from actual dilution, and a pattern that could repeat when the remaining 25 million lock-up shares unlock in June 2027.
The restart remains subject to further permitting and construction milestones beyond the two clearances disclosed with the Q2 2026 print, so a 2027 restart date is management's own targeted timeline rather than a settled fact; delays to comparable large nuclear restarts have occurred industry-wide in the past.
What we still do not know
- Who the unnamed buyers in August's 920 megawatts are, and whether their deals become disclosed contracts with sizes and terms.
- How PJM finally shares out new capacity costs, and whether any of it lands on Constellation's existing plants.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Only Walmart (176 MW of the 920 MW total) is named; the remaining roughly 744 MW is described only as 'a diverse set of investment grade customers' with no per-customer volume or term disclosed, and management explicitly declined on the earnings call to disclose specific pricing or customer identity, citing customer sensitivity - so the breadth of the demand pipeline beyond Walmart cannot be independently verified from what has been disclosed.
Management's repeated refusal to disclose pricing or counterparty detail across two consecutive calls means the market cannot independently verify how much of the 6 GW/5 GW opportunity Constellation is actually converting versus merely discussing.
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveThe pipeline keeps compounding on schedule
It needs all of:
- ○New data-centre deals keep arriving with named buyers and sizes, and the Three Mile Island restart stays on track for 2027.watched as it happens
- ○Debt starts falling back toward where it stood before the Calpine purchase.checked at the next results, due by 9 Nov
- Neutral→UnattractiveRules or the balance sheet turn
It needs any of:
- ○PJM finalises rules that put meaningful new capacity costs on Constellation's own plants.watched as it happens
- ○Calpine's former owners sell another large block of shares when the rest unlock in June 2027.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
- The Three Mile Island restart slips well past 2027.
- Several quarters pass with no new named contract.
What is coming
- 9 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether 2026 guidance holds or rises again, whether more of the unnamed 920 MW gets named, and how debt moved after the gas-plant purchase.
Every dated event ahead
- 9 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether 2026 guidance holds or rises again, whether more of the unnamed 920 MW gets named, and how debt moved after the gas-plant purchase.
- February 2027 Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance: A fifth year against the guidance midpoint, the first full-year guidance with Calpine, and whether leverage falls back toward its pre-merger level.
- June 2027 Meta's Clinton power agreement starts: Whether the first large data-centre contract begins delivering on time as the Illinois support programme for Clinton ends.
- 30 June 2027 Last 25 million Calpine lock-up shares released: Whether the Calpine sellers sell again and whether the price drops as it did on the June 2026 sale.
- December 2027 Crane Clean Energy Center restart: Whether the Microsoft-backed restart comes online within its 2027 target, the test of turning signed demand into running capacity.
Since we wrote this
- 27 OctNewsConstellation won a conditional federal loan of up to $5B; its terms are unread. View heldConditional Department of Energy loan commitment of up to $5 billion for nuclear output.
- 7 OctNewsGoogle becomes a named Constellation power buyer, 890 MW, terms unread. View heldGoogle and Constellation announced a long-term agreement for 890 MW of new nuclear capacity on the PJM grid.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
- 1 OctNewsAmazon becomes a named Constellation power buyer, 190 MW for 20 years. View heldConstellation and Amazon announced a 20-year power purchase agreement for 190 MW from Calvert Cliffs.
- 26 SepThesis reviewDear against its own past, not its peers. View heldThe top of the page said Constellation trades richer than every peer. On the comparisons that can be made it sits near its rivals' median; the premium is to its own history.
- 24 SepNewsA $715 million gas-plant purchase from Shell, too small to move leverage. View heldConstellation agreed to buy the Rhode Island State Energy Center, a gas-fired plant, from Shell for $715 million.
- 24 AugThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten eighteen days after the June-quarter results raised the year's profit forecast, with the shares about a third below their high.
Also checked 2 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 17
Sources - 17
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-02-24Calpine merger detail, business description, PPA history, nuclear license table, PJM regulatory backdrop, credit ratings and liquidity, Fortune 100 and counterparty-concentration disclosurebacksC01C02C04C05C08C14C15C16C17C19C20C28C30C33
- S02primarycompany filing2026-08-06Q2 2026 results, raised FY2026 guidance, the 920 MW PPA batch and Walmart detail, FERC/NRC Crane milestones, balance-sheet and cash-flow detailbacksC04C07C11C13C17C18
- S03primarycompany filing2026-05-11Q1 2026 results and GAAP/Adjusted reconciliation, affirmed FY2026 guidance, Fortune 100 figurebacksC11C12C16C17
- S04primarycompany filing2026-02-24FY2025 full-year results, original 2026 guidance, CyrusOne/Freestone PPA announcement, CEO/CFO commentary on Microsoft/Meta/CyrusOnebacksC06C11
- S05primarycompany filing2026-08-06segment note (resolving the segments_do_not_reconcile flag), balance sheet detail, H1 2026 cash flowbacksC03C13C17C27C28C33
- S06primarycompany filing2026-06-02the June 2026 secondary offering (Selling Shareholders only, zero Company shares sold) and the concurrent $558.0M Company share repurchasebacksC15
- S07secondaryindustry data2025independent confirmation of nuclear power's share of total US electricity generation, for the moat claim
About 19% was from nuclear energy
backsC21 - S08secondaryindustry data2026-06-25independent confirmation of US LNG feedgas growth, reused from this repo's Range Resources and Expand Energy theses
feedgas flows averaged 18.1 Bcf per day year-to-date through June 24, [...] 19 percent higher than the same period in 2025.
read, but no claim rests on it - S09secondaryindustry data2026-04-16independent EIA export-growth projection, reused from this repo's Range Resources and Expand Energy theses
U.S. LNG exports rise 1.9 Bcf/d in 2026 to average 17.0 Bcf/d, and we forecast that LNG exports will increase an additional 9% (1.5 Bcf/d) in 2027.
read, but no claim rests on it - S10secondaryindustry data2026-07-27independent evidence of a real quarter-over-quarter dip in LNG feedgas volumes, reused from this repo's Range Resources and Expand Energy theses
Total feed gas averaged 18.4 Bcf/d during the first quarter, though that fell to 17.8 Bcf/d during the three-month period ending June 30.
read, but no claim rests on it - S11secondaryindustry data2026independent tracking of behind-the-meter/off-grid data-center generation, reused from this repo's power-sector theses
Nearly every hyperscaler is pursuing behind-the-meter power projects-either directly or through partners.
backsC23 - S12secondaryvendor data2026-08-24Portfolio-management research pack (market tier: price, technicals, insiders, analysts, news reaction)content/CEG/research-pack.jsonprice/technicals snapshot, insider Form 4 aggregation, analyst consensus, own-history valuation time series, measured news reactionbacksC18C24C25C26
- S13secondaryvendor data2026-08-24Portfolio-management research pack (vendor_fundamentals tier: peer_valuation cohort, filed-vs-vendor reconciliation)content/CEG/research-pack.jsoncohort valuation multiples on the filed-competitor cohort (VST, NRG, TLN) and the filed_margin_gap detail behind which peers are withheldbacksC17C19
- S14primarytranscript2026-08-06Constellation Energy Corporation Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (question section)Alpha Vantage EARNINGS_CALL_TRANSCRIPT, CEG 2026Q2management's own framing of the PJM bilateral contracting process, the 6 GW/5 GW figures, and the ERCOT Batch Zero response
to the point of trying to protect customer sensitivity around the exact pricing, we're going to keep that range as it is
backsC09C10 - S15secondaryindustry data2026independent EIA projection of US data-center electricity demand growth, for the prize's base factor
Data center server electricity use grows to 22%-33% of commercial building electricity use by 2050 across our cases.
backsC22 - S16primarycompany release2026-06-22the Walmart PPA's term structure (two 15-year terms beginning 2029 and 2030), not itemized in the Q2 2026 8-K itself
Walmart will purchase energy, environmental attributes and capacity through two 15-year terms beginning in 2029 and 2030.
backsC07 - S17primarycompany filing2026-03-19beneficial ownership as of March 2, 2026 and the holders above 5%, the 2025 annual incentive and long-term plan metrics, weights and payouts, the FCF-before-growth goals raised for Calpine, the post-close leadership appointmentsbacksC30C31C32