← All thesesIPGPNeutralMedium convictionSunday 4 October 2026עברית

IPG Photonics

An American maker of fiber lasers, the beams that cut and weld metal in factories, which has started selling a laser that shoots down small drones.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth2/4 ↑

Not 3: three quarters of growth follow three years of decline, and trailing sales are still 27% below 2021.

Business quality2/4 ↓

Not 3: Chinese rivals undercut on price and lead share in China, and the margin fell from 25% to 1%.

Financial position4/4 →

No debt and $904M of cash and investments, a quarter of the market value, even after Lumibird.

Execution record3/4 ↑

Not 4: beat guidance two quarters running, but lost a patent fight and defence sales fell after launch.

Per share capture3/4 →

Not 4: no new shares issued and the cash kept for shareholders, but the 2026 buyback is unused and Lumibird is priced fully.

Potential2/4 →

Not 3: the defence upside is one $10M order, and the margin recovery is a target rather than a contract.

Risk profile3/4 →

Not 4: a net cash balance sheet and spread customers, but China is 29% of sales in a price war.

Valuation2/4 →

Not 3: the price needs operating margin near 17%, a level last seen in 2023.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Not 4: the financials are filed, but defence revenue is undisclosed and the China share is one industry source.

The bet · 2-3 years
Safe, little upside1.1×

If it works 1.1× · if it fails you keep about 95%.

The Verdict

We rate IPG Photonics neutral. It makes industrial lasers, and the business is mixed: it has a large pile of cash and no debt, but Chinese rivals have cut prices so hard that its operating margin fell from about a quarter of sales to about 1%. The price is full: it already assumes margins climb most of the way back. As a bet it is defensive: if the drone-killing laser becomes a real business, the shares gain only about 5%, because the line is so small; if it fails, almost nothing is lost, since the factory business and the cash roughly cover today's price.

The long caseCheap drones make costly missiles a poor answer, so armies want weapons with a low cost per shot; a small laser that proves itself could win repeat orders.

The evidence under this - 8 claims
C09facthigh confidence
At 2026-06-30 IPG held $399.2M of cash, $472.1M of short-term investments and $32.7M of long-term investments, $904.0M in all, and no debt; total liabilities were $297.4M.
against this

The Lumibird Medical purchase will spend about $349M of it in cash, with up to about $58M more if the earnout is paid.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C05facthigh confidence
GAAP operating margin was 25.2% in 2021, 11.9% in 2022, 18.0% in 2023, minus 21.3% in 2024 after impairments, and 1.3% in 2025.
against this

2024 carried large goodwill and asset impairments and 2022 a Russia-related write-down, so the GAAP series understates the underlying margin in those years; adjusted margins are steadier but still fell sharply.

historical · FY2021-FY2025written 2026-10-04
C19factmedium confidence
In China, Raycus holds about 27% of the fiber laser market, above IPG's share; the factory price of a kilowatt-class fiber laser fell from about RMB 500,000 around 2018 to RMB 70,000-100,000 in 2024, and domestic makers held over 70% of units at 10 kilowatts and above in 2024.
against this

IPG's China sales rose 19.1% in 2025 to $291.9M, so it is not simply losing volume there.

current state · 2024-12-31written 2026-10-04
C25estimatemedium confidence
For the $2.66B company value to be fifteen times operating profit, trailing sales of $1,069M must earn about $177M, an operating margin of about 16.6%, near the 2023 level and far above 2025's 1.3%.
derivedCompany value from C24 divided by fifteen, an ordinary industrial multiple, then by trailing revenue (C03); compared with the margin history in C05.
against this
  • Revenue may grow: analysts expect about $1.24B in 2027 and Lumibird adds about $130M, which would lower the margin needed to roughly 14%.
  • Fifteen is a stated multiple, not a measured one; at twenty times the margin needed falls to about 12%.
current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C13facthigh confidence
Lockheed Martin placed a follow-on CROSSBOW order worth about $10M in February 2026, after earlier initial systems; shipments began in the June 2026 quarter and continue over several quarters.
current state · 2026-08-04written 2026-10-04
C14management claimhigh confidence
Defence revenue fell year over year in both the March and June 2026 quarters, offsetting growth elsewhere in Advanced Solutions; IPG does not disclose the amount.
against this

Management said North American revenue rose sequentially in the June quarter partly on defence sales, so the year-over-year fall may reflect a lumpy 2025 comparison.

historical · Q1-Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C42inferencemedium confidence
A big win for IPG Defense is about $75M a year of sales, seven or eight Lockheed-sized orders a year; valued at five times sales it adds about $375M, roughly a tenth of today's market value.
derivedThe $10M Lockheed order (C13) as the unit; AeroVironment's army contract at about $93M a year for a far larger system (C16) and nLight's $175.3M of defence sales (C17) as the ceiling a supplier has reached.
against this

One army contract alone is worth about $93M a year, so a single programme win could exceed the big win; none has gone to a 3-kilowatt system.

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C24estimatehigh confidence
On the filed balance sheet the company value is about $2.66B: 2.5 times trailing sales of $1,069.3M and 16.4 times trailing adjusted EBITDA of $161.9M, against trailing GAAP operating income of only about $8M.
derivedMarket value of about $3.57B (C23) less $904.0M of cash and investments with no debt (C09), over trailing revenue (C03) and adjusted EBITDA (C06); GAAP operating income is the second half of 2025 at $11.2M plus the first half of 2026 at minus $3.2M.
against this

After the Lumibird purchase about $349M less cash remains, which lifts the company value to about $3.0B against about $1.2B of combined sales, still about 2.5 times.

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
01

The company

IPG Photonics makes fiber lasers: light produced inside a thin strand of glass and delivered down a flexible cable. Factories use them to cut sheet metal, weld car bodies and batteries, mark parts and clean surfaces. The buyer is usually a company that builds cutting or welding machines and puts IPG's laser inside.

IPG makes the key parts itself, from the light-producing chips to the glass fibre. Its lead today is in the most powerful and precise lasers; ordinary cutting lasers have become a product bought mostly on price.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C01facthigh confidence
IPG designs and makes fiber lasers and amplifiers, and makes most of their key components in-house - semiconductor diodes, optical fibre preforms, specialty fibre, power supplies - plus beam delivery heads, laser systems and, since late 2025, the CROSSBOW counter-drone system.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C34inferencemedium confidence
IPG's product lead is now concentrated in high-power single-mode lasers and beam-shaping welding systems, while standard multi-kilowatt cutting lasers have become a priced commodity.
derivedManagement's emphasis on 8-kilowatt single-mode lasers and adjustable-beam welding (S03, S07) set against the Chinese price collapse and domestic share at high power (C19).
against this
  • Raycus reports the first commercial 200-kilowatt sale and 135% growth in 10-kilowatt-plus units in 2024, so the high-power lead is contested too.
  • Trumpf won patent rulings against IPG's adjustable-mode welding lasers (C21).
current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04

How it makes money

IPG earns money selling lasers and laser systems to machine builders and manufacturers. In 2025 about 86% of sales came from factory work like cutting and welding, about 7% from medical lasers and about 7% from science, chip-making and defence, where the drone laser sits.

Orders are short: the year-end backlog was about seven months of sales, mostly cancellable. Buying Lumibird Medical, an eye-laser maker, adds about an eighth to sales.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C02facthigh confidence
In 2025 materials processing was $860.2M of sales (85.7%), medical $74.0M (7.4%) and advanced applications - which include directed energy, scientific and semiconductor work - $69.6M (6.9%).
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-04
C03facthigh confidence
Revenue was $1,460.9M in 2021, $1,429.5M in 2022, $1,287.4M in 2023, $977.1M in 2024 and $1,003.8M in 2025; the twelve months to June 2026 were $1,069.3M.
historical · FY2021-Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C22facthigh confidence
Backlog at end 2025 was $631.5M: $399.0M of orders with firm dates and $232.5M of non-binding frame agreements, generally cancellable without substantial penalty.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C10facthigh confidence
IPG made a binding offer for Lumibird Medical at €300M in cash, about $349M, plus up to €50M of earnout; Lumibird Medical had €112.2M of 2025 sales and a 16.8% adjusted EBITDA margin, so the price is about 15.9 times its adjusted EBITDA, with closing expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.
current state · 2026-09-08written 2026-10-04
C40estimatehigh confidence
IPG's defence revenue is below $69.6M a year, under 7% of sales, because it sits inside advanced applications alongside scientific and semiconductor work and fell in 2026.
derivedAdvanced applications' 2025 total (C02) is an upper bound for its directed energy part; defence fell in both 2026 quarters (C14).
against this

The bound is a 2025 figure, set before the Lockheed shipments began in the June 2026 quarter, so 2026 defence sales could sit nearer it than the falling trend suggests.

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (FY2025)How it earns it
High-power CW lasers30.8%Multi-kilowatt continuous lasers sold to machine builders for sheet cutting and welding; the line Chinese rivals have priced down.
Medium-power CW lasers8.8%Lower-power continuous lasers for welding, additive manufacturing and fine processing, sold to machine builders and manufacturers.
Pulsed lasers14.3%Pulsed fiber lasers for marking, engraving, cleaning and micromachining, mostly through equipment makers.
Quasi-CW lasers5.2%High-peak-power lasers for spot welding and drilling, including battery and electronics work.
Laser and non-laser systems14.6%Complete machines and robotic cells sold to end users: welding, cleaning (cleanLASER), cutting cells, and the CROSSBOW counter-drone system.
Other lasers, amplifiers, service, parts and accessories26.3%Medical and scientific lasers, amplifiers, processing heads, chillers, spare parts and service on the installed base.

Who runs it

Mark Gitin, hired from a rival laser group, has run IPG since mid-2024; Tim Mammen has been finance chief since 2000. The founder's trusts still control about a third of the votes, through directors acting as trustees, and they have been selling. Gitin owns little himself. His bonus rides on sales and profit, his shares on growth in sales and profit and on tight stock and receivables, none on how much profit each dollar invested earns.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C46facthigh confidence
Mark Gitin, formerly head of MKS Instruments' photonics division and 22 years at Coherent, has been chief executive since June 5, 2024; Timothy Mammen has been chief financial officer since July 2000; Eugene Scherbakov was chief executive from May 2021 to June 2024 and remains a director and senior adviser.
current state · 2026-04-01written 2026-10-04
C44facthigh confidence
At March 20, 2026 the 15 directors and executive officers beneficially owned 37.5%, almost all as trustees: Eugene Scherbakov 34.7% through the founder's trusts and IP Fibre Devices, Angelo Lopresti 19.2% as a trustee of the same trusts; Mark Gitin owned 16,064 shares. There is one class of common stock.
against this

The trusts' voting power is not the officers' own money: IP Fibre Devices is 48% owned by Gapontsev Trust I and only 8% each by Scherbakov and Samartsev, and the trusts have sold since under 10b5-1 plans (C29).

current state · 2026-03-20written 2026-10-04
C45facthigh confidence
The 2025 annual bonus paid 75% on half-yearly revenue and adjusted EBIT goals and 25% on personal goals, and paid 113.9% of target on the financial part; long-term awards are half time-vesting RSUs and half PSUs on revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA growth and working-capital days, in three one-year tranches vesting after three years.
against this
  • The 2022 PSUs, on organic revenue growth and adjusted operating margin, paid nothing, and the bonus met target in only one of three years, so the plan has bitten.
  • Each later PSU tranche's growth goal is set off the prior year's actual result, so after a weak year the bar resets lower; nothing pays on return on capital or the share price relative to peers.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-04
C29facthigh confidence
Of 905,527 shares insiders sold in the year to October 2026, 98.7% were sold under Rule 10b5-1 plans, mostly by entities of the founder's estate; one director bought 2,710 shares at $72.84 to $74.57 in August 2026.
historical · 2025-10 to 2026-10written 2026-10-04
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

IPG's protection was supposed to be cost: making every part itself should let it build a laser more cheaply than anyone. That held while it was far bigger than its rivals. It no longer is.

In China, which buys about 29% of IPG's lasers, the local leader Raycus now outsells IPG, and the price of a standard laser fell about 60% between 2018 and 2024. Sales per IPG employee are lower than in 2016. Customers come back for IPG's best lasers; for ordinary ones they shop on price.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C19factmedium confidence
In China, Raycus holds about 27% of the fiber laser market, above IPG's share; the factory price of a kilowatt-class fiber laser fell from about RMB 500,000 around 2018 to RMB 70,000-100,000 in 2024, and domestic makers held over 70% of units at 10 kilowatts and above in 2024.
against this

IPG's China sales rose 19.1% in 2025 to $291.9M, so it is not simply losing volume there.

current state · 2024-12-31written 2026-10-04
C20facthigh confidence
China was $291.9M, 29.1%, of IPG's 2025 sales; its 10-K says many fiber laser competitors are raising output power and decreasing prices, and that Asian rivals are beginning to export to other markets.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C35inferencemedium confidence
Vertical integration no longer gives IPG a cost advantage large enough to defend price in China; it now mainly carries a fixed cost base that depresses margin when volumes fall.
derivedChinese price per kilowatt down about 60% and Raycus above IPG in China (C19); revenue per head down 13% since 2016 (C33); the 10-K's own warning that its fixed costs hit margins in downturns (S01).
against this

Raycus's own gross margin was about 20.5% in 2024 against IPG's near 39%, so IPG still earns far more per unit than its largest rival.

current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C33facthigh confidence
Revenue per employee was $207K in 2025 against $238K in 2016, down 13%, on 4,840 employees.
historical · FY2016-FY2025written 2026-10-04

The threat

In factories the threat is Chinese makers like Raycus, selling similar lasers for much less, and Germany's Trumpf, whose patents a European court found IPG's welding lasers infringed; IPG paid to settle.

In defence, rivals are further ahead. The US Army's first production order for laser weapons went to AeroVironment, and nLight already sells far more laser equipment to the military than IPG.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C19factmedium confidence
In China, Raycus holds about 27% of the fiber laser market, above IPG's share; the factory price of a kilowatt-class fiber laser fell from about RMB 500,000 around 2018 to RMB 70,000-100,000 in 2024, and domestic makers held over 70% of units at 10 kilowatts and above in 2024.
against this

IPG's China sales rose 19.1% in 2025 to $291.9M, so it is not simply losing volume there.

current state · 2024-12-31written 2026-10-04
C21facthigh confidence
Unified Patent Court rulings found IPG's adjustable-mode beam lasers infringed Trumpf patents; IPG settled in the first half of 2026 for $13.3M plus a royalty-bearing licence.
historical · H1 2026written 2026-10-04
C16facthigh confidence
The US Army awarded AeroVironment the Enduring High Energy Laser contract, its first directed energy programme of record: 26 LOCUST X3 laser weapons of 30 kilowatts over five years for $464.8M, about $17.9M a system; separately nLight and Lockheed Martin were awarded the 300 to 500 kilowatt Joint Laser Weapons System.
current state · 2026-09-09written 2026-10-04
C17facthigh confidence
nLight's aerospace and defence revenue was $175.3M in 2025, up about 60%, and 67% of its $261.3M total; its industrial and microfabrication sales were $86.1M.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-04

The rivals: AVAV, LASR, LMT, COHR, MKSI, and 3 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
Wuhan Raycus Fiber Laser TechnologiesPriced against it: Listed abroadIndustrial Solutions, and Advanced Solutions outside defenceOn saleListed abroad
Shenzhen JPT Opto-Electronics pulsed lasersPriced against it: Listed abroadIndustrial Solutions, and Advanced Solutions outside defenceOn saleListed abroad
PrivateTrumpf disc and fiber lasersPriced against it: PrivateIndustrial Solutions, and Advanced Solutions outside defenceOn salePrivate
AVAVAeroVironment LOCUST X3 laser weaponPriced against it: One segment onlyIPG Defense: directed energy and the CROSSBOW counter-drone systemOn saleOne segment only
LASRnLight high-energy laser sourcesPriced against it: Same productIPG Defense: directed energy and the CROSSBOW counter-drone systemOn saleSame product
LMTLockheed Martin's own high-energy lasersPriced against it: Different productIPG Defense: directed energy and the CROSSBOW counter-drone systemAnnouncedDifferent product
COHRCoherentPriced against it: One segment only-On saleOne segment only
MKSIMKSPriced against it: One segment only-On saleOne segment only
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

The Pentagon asked for about $790M for all laser and other energy weapons in its 2025 budget, down from $1.1B the year before, and most of that pays for research on large weapons.

The one production contract so far buys 26 army lasers over five years, each 30 kilowatts against IPG's 3. Nobody publishes how many small drone lasers are bought a year, so IPG's market cannot be sized; it is a slice of that budget.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C18factmedium confidence
The Department of Defense requested $789.7M for directed energy weapons programmes in fiscal 2025, down from a $962.4M request and $1.1B appropriated in fiscal 2024.
against this

Trade press reports a larger directed energy request in later budgets tied to missile defence, which this report predates; it was not read from a primary source here.

historical · FY2024-FY2025written 2026-10-04
C16facthigh confidence
The US Army awarded AeroVironment the Enduring High Energy Laser contract, its first directed energy programme of record: 26 LOCUST X3 laser weapons of 30 kilowatts over five years for $464.8M, about $17.9M a system; separately nLight and Lockheed Martin were awarded the 300 to 500 kilowatt Joint Laser Weapons System.
current state · 2026-09-09written 2026-10-04

Who has signed

One defence customer has signed: Lockheed Martin ordered about $10M of CROSSBOW systems in February 2026, shipping over several quarters. No second buyer has been named.

For lasers in general, about a third of the year-end backlog was non-binding frame agreements rather than firm orders.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C13facthigh confidence
Lockheed Martin placed a follow-on CROSSBOW order worth about $10M in February 2026, after earlier initial systems; shipments began in the June 2026 quarter and continue over several quarters.
current state · 2026-08-04written 2026-10-04
C22facthigh confidence
Backlog at end 2025 was $631.5M: $399.0M of orders with firm dates and $232.5M of non-binding frame agreements, generally cancellable without substantial penalty.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Steady

Sales grew 13% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, faster than the 2.7% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $1.46BDec 2022: $1.43BDec 2023: $1.29BDec 2024: $977MDec 2025: $1.00B12 mo to Jun 2026: $1.07B$1.46B$1.07B
Is it profitable?Thin

Operating margin is 0.7%, down from 18% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: 25%Dec 2022: 12%Dec 2023: 18%Dec 2024: −21%Dec 2025: 1.3%12 mo to Jun 2026: 0.7%25%0.7%
Does growth pay off?Pays off

Running costs take 38¢ of each sales dollar, up from 22¢ in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 22¢Dec 2022: 27¢Dec 2023: 24¢Dec 2024: 56¢Dec 2025: 37¢12 mo to Jun 2026: 38¢22¢38¢
Does it earn good returns?Low

Each dollar put into the business earns 0.3% a year after tax, down from 10% in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 10%Dec 2022: 4.0%Dec 2023: 7.7%Dec 2025: 0.4%12 mo to Jun 2026: 0.3%10%0.3%
Is it making cash?Thin

It turned 1.9% of sales into free cash, $20.8M over the last twelve months.

Dec 2021: $267MDec 2022: $103MDec 2023: $186MDec 2024: $149MDec 2025: −$3.45M12 mo to Jun 2026: $20.8M$267M$20.8M
How steady is it?Swingy

Yearly sales growth has ranged from −24% to +22% over the last 5 years, with sales falling in 3 of them.

Dec 2021: +22%Dec 2022: −2.1%Dec 2023: −9.9%Dec 2024: −24%Dec 2025: +2.7%+22%+2.7%
Are shares being diluted?Shrinking

The share count fell 20% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 3.9% of sales.

Dec 2021: 53.9MDec 2022: 50.9MDec 2023: 47.3MDec 2024: 44.3MDec 2025: 42.6M12 mo to Jun 2026: 42.9M53.9M42.9M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$1.46B$1.43B$1.29B$977M$1.00B$1.07B
Sales growth+22%−2.1%−9.9%−24%+2.7%+13%
Profit
Gross margin48%39%42%35%38%38%
Operating margin25%12%18%−21%1.3%0.7%
Net margin19%7.7%17%−19%3.1%2.6%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development9.6%8.1%7.7%11%12%12%
Sales and marketing5.4%5.4%6.7%9.2%9.7%9.0%
General and admin8.6%9.2%9.8%13%14%14%
Pay in shares2.6%2.7%3.1%3.8%4.3%3.9%
Capital spending8.4%7.7%8.6%10%7.9%7.1%
Cash
Cash from operations$390M$213M$296M$248M$75.3M$96.4M
Free cash flow$267M$103M$186M$149M−$3.45M$20.8M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$1.51B$1.18B$1.18B$930M$839M$871M
Debt$34.2M$16.0M$0---
Net cash$1.48B$1.16B$1.18B---
Returns and shares
Return on capital10%4.0%7.7%-0.4%0.3%
Shares (diluted)53.9M50.9M47.3M44.3M42.6M42.9M

What growth costs

IPG's research, sales and office costs barely moved when sales fell, so profit margins collapsed. The flip side is that growth should rebuild them: each extra sale needs little extra overhead, and the latest year started to show that. Pay in shares is creeping up.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C49facthigh confidence
Research, selling and admin costs were $343.6M, 23.5 cents per sales dollar, in 2021, $310.1M or 24.1 cents in 2023, $358.4M or 35.7 cents in 2025 and $367.8M or 34.4 cents over the twelve months to June 2026; stock pay rose from 2.6 to 4.3 cents and capital spending moved from 8.4 to 7.8 cents.
against this

Part of the 2025 rise is acquisition amortisation charged to sales and marketing, mainly cleanLASER, and higher performance pay, not new spending on growth.

historical · FY2021 to the twelve months to June 2026written 2026-10-04
C35inferencemedium confidence
Vertical integration no longer gives IPG a cost advantage large enough to defend price in China; it now mainly carries a fixed cost base that depresses margin when volumes fall.
derivedChinese price per kilowatt down about 60% and Raycus above IPG in China (C19); revenue per head down 13% since 2016 (C33); the 10-K's own warning that its fixed costs hit margins in downturns (S01).
against this

Raycus's own gross margin was about 20.5% in 2024 against IPG's near 39%, so IPG still earns far more per unit than its largest rival.

current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04

The last report (4 Aug)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

11%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
4.9%
Growth from the quarter before
against -3.3% the quarter before that
2¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

In the three months to June 2026, sales grew 11%, led by welding lasers for battery factories. The part of the business holding defence shrank 9%, and defence sales fell from a year earlier for the second quarter running.

The margin looked better than it was. About $4.7M of refunded import tariffs added 1.7 percentage points to it; without them it was about where the guidance for the next quarter sits. A charge for selling the Belarus operation left reported operating profit near zero.

What it did to the thesisIt showed the factory business recovering but left the margin question open, because a one-off tariff refund flattered the quarter. It weakened the drone-laser case, since defence sales fell again even as the first Lockheed systems shipped.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $0.12 against $0.37 expected; $0.12 as filed, with no adjustments.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C04facthigh confidence
In the June 2026 quarter revenue was $278.6M, up 11%: Industrial Solutions $237.0M, up 16%, and Advanced Solutions $41.5M, down 9%. GAAP gross margin was 40.4%, GAAP operating margin 1.6% after a $17.6M Belarus impairment, adjusted earnings per share $0.58 and adjusted EBITDA $48.5M.
against this

About 2 points of the revenue growth was currency, and $4.7M of tariff refunds lifted gross margin by about 1.7 points, so the underlying quarter was weaker than the headline.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C07facthigh confidence
June 2026 quarter gross margin included about $4.7M of tariff refunds worth about 1.7 points, so adjusted gross margin of 40.7% was about 39.0% without them; third-quarter guidance of 37.5% to 40.5% includes a tariff drag of about 1.5 points.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C14management claimhigh confidence
Defence revenue fell year over year in both the March and June 2026 quarters, offsetting growth elsewhere in Advanced Solutions; IPG does not disclose the amount.
against this

Management said North American revenue rose sequentially in the June quarter partly on defence sales, so the year-over-year fall may reflect a lumpy 2025 comparison.

historical · Q1-Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C36facthigh confidence
A $17.6M impairment of long-lived assets was recorded in the June 2026 quarter on the sale of IPG's Belarusian operations.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C38management claimmedium confidence
Third-quarter 2026 guidance is revenue of $265M to $295M, adjusted gross margin of 37.5% to 40.5%, adjusted earnings per share of $0.30 to $0.60 and adjusted EBITDA of $35M to $51M; results are due 2026-11-03.
against this

The June quarter beat the top of its own gross margin and earnings guidance, so the range may again prove conservative.

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
What management did with the money

Insiders in 2026Q3: 2 purchases and 21 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Full. The cash floor is real, but the price already pays for profit margins climbing back close to their 2023 level, which today's results are far from.

Share price
$84.05
close,
Company value for each $1 of sales
3.0
its 6-year normal 3.2

The shares jumped 35% in one day in February 2026, on the report that first featured the drone laser, then fell back to about where they were a year earlier. The story has been priced in and taken out once already.

Three things arrive soon. Results for the September quarter come on November 3, the first real test of the margin without the refund. Lumibird should close by year end. And the army now has a laser weapons programme that is buying, though not from IPG.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C27facthigh confidence
The shares rose 35.5% on 2026-02-12 to $150.25 and peaked at $153.91 the next day, fell 25.7% on 2026-05-05 after the first-quarter print, and closed at $84.05 on 2026-10-02.
historical · 2026-02-12 to 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C13facthigh confidence
Lockheed Martin placed a follow-on CROSSBOW order worth about $10M in February 2026, after earlier initial systems; shipments began in the June 2026 quarter and continue over several quarters.
current state · 2026-08-04written 2026-10-04
C16facthigh confidence
The US Army awarded AeroVironment the Enduring High Energy Laser contract, its first directed energy programme of record: 26 LOCUST X3 laser weapons of 30 kilowatts over five years for $464.8M, about $17.9M a system; separately nLight and Lockheed Martin were awarded the 300 to 500 kilowatt Joint Laser Weapons System.
current state · 2026-09-09written 2026-10-04
C38management claimmedium confidence
Third-quarter 2026 guidance is revenue of $265M to $295M, adjusted gross margin of 37.5% to 40.5%, adjusted earnings per share of $0.30 to $0.60 and adjusted EBITDA of $35M to $51M; results are due 2026-11-03.
against this

The June quarter beat the top of its own gross margin and earnings guidance, so the range may again prove conservative.

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C10facthigh confidence
IPG made a binding offer for Lumibird Medical at €300M in cash, about $349M, plus up to €50M of earnout; Lumibird Medical had €112.2M of 2025 sales and a 16.8% adjusted EBITDA margin, so the price is about 15.9 times its adjusted EBITDA, with closing expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.
current state · 2026-09-08written 2026-10-04
The betSafe, little upside
If it works
1.1×
from today's value, at the stated multiple
If it fails
keep 95%
of today's market value: the rest of the company, less its debt
How we read the multiple

IPG's cash is about a quarter of its market value, so the business itself costs less than the share price suggests.

What a buyer is paying for:

  1. The business, without the cash, costs about 2.5 times a year's sales.
  2. A common rule of thumb pays about 15 times a year's operating profit for an ordinary industrial company.
  3. At that rate the business must keep about 17 cents of every sales dollar as operating profit.
  4. In 2025 it kept about 1 cent; it was last near 17 in 2023.

Against its own history. A little below what IPG has usually sold for against its sales, but that history was earned when margins were many times higher than today.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C24estimatehigh confidence
On the filed balance sheet the company value is about $2.66B: 2.5 times trailing sales of $1,069.3M and 16.4 times trailing adjusted EBITDA of $161.9M, against trailing GAAP operating income of only about $8M.
derivedMarket value of about $3.57B (C23) less $904.0M of cash and investments with no debt (C09), over trailing revenue (C03) and adjusted EBITDA (C06); GAAP operating income is the second half of 2025 at $11.2M plus the first half of 2026 at minus $3.2M.
against this

After the Lumibird purchase about $349M less cash remains, which lifts the company value to about $3.0B against about $1.2B of combined sales, still about 2.5 times.

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C25estimatemedium confidence
For the $2.66B company value to be fifteen times operating profit, trailing sales of $1,069M must earn about $177M, an operating margin of about 16.6%, near the 2023 level and far above 2025's 1.3%.
derivedCompany value from C24 divided by fifteen, an ordinary industrial multiple, then by trailing revenue (C03); compared with the margin history in C05.
against this
  • Revenue may grow: analysts expect about $1.24B in 2027 and Lumibird adds about $130M, which would lower the margin needed to roughly 14%.
  • Fifteen is a stated multiple, not a measured one; at twenty times the margin needed falls to about 12%.
current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C26factmedium confidence
The vendor's six-year median company value to sales for IPG is 3.24 times, against 2.98 times today on the vendor's own basis and about 2.5 times on the filed figures in C24.
against this

Most of those six years had operating margins of 12% to 25%, so the historical multiple paid for a far more profitable company.

current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C09facthigh confidence
At 2026-06-30 IPG held $399.2M of cash, $472.1M of short-term investments and $32.7M of long-term investments, $904.0M in all, and no debt; total liabilities were $297.4M.
against this

The Lumibird Medical purchase will spend about $349M of it in cash, with up to about $58M more if the earnout is paid.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C05facthigh confidence
GAAP operating margin was 25.2% in 2021, 11.9% in 2022, 18.0% in 2023, minus 21.3% in 2024 after impairments, and 1.3% in 2025.
against this

2024 carried large goodwill and asset impairments and 2022 a Russia-related write-down, so the GAAP series understates the underlying margin in those years; adjusted margins are steadier but still fell sharply.

historical · FY2021-FY2025written 2026-10-04
Priced against its rivals

Only nLIGHT sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.

Also checked and set aside: Lumentum Holdings (a substitute, not the same product).

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Wuhan Raycus Fiber Laser Technologies Co., Ltd., Shenzhen JPT Opto-Electronics Co., Ltd., Maxphotonics Co., Ltd., Trumpf GmbH + Co. KG, Laserline GmbH.

The bet: what it pays if it works

The bet is on IPG Defense, the drone-killing laser. The factory and medical business is counted separately at the price the whole company sells for now.

If several customers buy at Lockheed's pace each year, the shares are worth only slightly more than today, because the defence line is so small next to the rest. If CROSSBOW comes to nothing, the factory business and the cash still cover roughly today's price, so little is lost.

IPG Defense: directed energy and the CROSSBOW counter-drone system revenue in two to three yearsLockheed-sized CROSSBOW orders a year neededAt the stated multiple
$30.00Mabout 3 at 100% kept1.0×
$75.00M (the big win)about 8 at 100% kept1.1×
$175.00Mabout 18 at 100% kept1.2×

To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $673.77M of IPG Defense: directed energy and the CROSSBOW counter-drone system revenue (about 67 Lockheed-sized CROSSBOW orders a year); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $2.58B of IPG Defense: directed energy and the CROSSBOW counter-drone system revenue (about 258 Lockheed-sized CROSSBOW orders a year), at the same multiple.

Each row is IPG Defense: directed energy and the CROSSBOW counter-drone system alone, plus the rest of the company (Industrial Solutions, and Advanced Solutions outside defence) counted at about $3.00B.

The steps it has to take

  • Done CROSSBOW launched as a commercial counter-drone product
  • Done IPG Defense site opened in Huntsville, Alabama
  • Done A $10M follow-on order from Lockheed Martin
  • In progress Lockheed order shipped in full due 2026-12
  • Not started A second CROSSBOW customer with a disclosed order due 2027-06
  • Not started Defence sales grow year over year again due 2027-06
  • Not started The 6 to 8 kilowatt CROSSBOW version launched due 2027-12
  • Not started Defence sales near $75M a year due 2029-03
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet at about
≈ $24.93
70% below the price (close, )
The option
2.0×
what IPG Defense: directed energy and the CROSSBOW counter-drone system is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C42inferencemedium confidence
A big win for IPG Defense is about $75M a year of sales, seven or eight Lockheed-sized orders a year; valued at five times sales it adds about $375M, roughly a tenth of today's market value.
derivedThe $10M Lockheed order (C13) as the unit; AeroVironment's army contract at about $93M a year for a far larger system (C16) and nLight's $175.3M of defence sales (C17) as the ceiling a supplier has reached.
against this

One army contract alone is worth about $93M a year, so a single programme win could exceed the big win; none has gone to a 3-kilowatt system.

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C13facthigh confidence
Lockheed Martin placed a follow-on CROSSBOW order worth about $10M in February 2026, after earlier initial systems; shipments began in the June 2026 quarter and continue over several quarters.
current state · 2026-08-04written 2026-10-04
C16facthigh confidence
The US Army awarded AeroVironment the Enduring High Energy Laser contract, its first directed energy programme of record: 26 LOCUST X3 laser weapons of 30 kilowatts over five years for $464.8M, about $17.9M a system; separately nLight and Lockheed Martin were awarded the 300 to 500 kilowatt Joint Laser Weapons System.
current state · 2026-09-09written 2026-10-04
C17facthigh confidence
nLight's aerospace and defence revenue was $175.3M in 2025, up about 60%, and 67% of its $261.3M total; its industrial and microfabrication sales were $86.1M.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-04
C24estimatehigh confidence
On the filed balance sheet the company value is about $2.66B: 2.5 times trailing sales of $1,069.3M and 16.4 times trailing adjusted EBITDA of $161.9M, against trailing GAAP operating income of only about $8M.
derivedMarket value of about $3.57B (C23) less $904.0M of cash and investments with no debt (C09), over trailing revenue (C03) and adjusted EBITDA (C06); GAAP operating income is the second half of 2025 at $11.2M plus the first half of 2026 at minus $3.2M.
against this

After the Lumibird purchase about $349M less cash remains, which lifts the company value to about $3.0B against about $1.2B of combined sales, still about 2.5 times.

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C09facthigh confidence
At 2026-06-30 IPG held $399.2M of cash, $472.1M of short-term investments and $32.7M of long-term investments, $904.0M in all, and no debt; total liabilities were $297.4M.
against this

The Lumibird Medical purchase will spend about $349M of it in cash, with up to about $58M more if the earnout is paid.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C10facthigh confidence
IPG made a binding offer for Lumibird Medical at €300M in cash, about $349M, plus up to €50M of earnout; Lumibird Medical had €112.2M of 2025 sales and a 16.8% adjusted EBITDA margin, so the price is about 15.9 times its adjusted EBITDA, with closing expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.
current state · 2026-09-08written 2026-10-04

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

A cyclical laser maker on the way back, with a defence business as a bonus.

We believe

The recovery is mostly priced in, the margin target is unproven against Chinese prices, and the defence line is too small to matter yet.

Most analysts rate the shares a buy, expecting sales and profit to recover strongly in 2027.

We think the factory recovery is real but the margin is the open question: management still aims for a gross margin in the mid-40s, and it has not reached 40% without help this year. And the defence line is shrinking while rivals win the big contracts.

We could be wrong if the margin climbs past 43% on its own, or a second drone-laser customer signs.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
67%
of 9, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
67%
of 9, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C28factmedium confidence
Analysts split 16 buy, 10 hold and 1 sell; the six with 2027 estimates expect sales of about $1.24B and adjusted profit of about $2.25 a share.
against this

The vendor's dated series covers only nine analysts, with the buy share flat at 66.7% since June after rising from 54.5% in February.

current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C25estimatemedium confidence
For the $2.66B company value to be fifteen times operating profit, trailing sales of $1,069M must earn about $177M, an operating margin of about 16.6%, near the 2023 level and far above 2025's 1.3%.
derivedCompany value from C24 divided by fifteen, an ordinary industrial multiple, then by trailing revenue (C03); compared with the margin history in C05.
against this
  • Revenue may grow: analysts expect about $1.24B in 2027 and Lumibird adds about $130M, which would lower the margin needed to roughly 14%.
  • Fifteen is a stated multiple, not a measured one; at twenty times the margin needed falls to about 12%.
current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C14management claimhigh confidence
Defence revenue fell year over year in both the March and June 2026 quarters, offsetting growth elsewhere in Advanced Solutions; IPG does not disclose the amount.
against this

Management said North American revenue rose sequentially in the June quarter partly on defence sales, so the year-over-year fall may reflect a lumpy 2025 comparison.

historical · Q1-Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C16facthigh confidence
The US Army awarded AeroVironment the Enduring High Energy Laser contract, its first directed energy programme of record: 26 LOCUST X3 laser weapons of 30 kilowatts over five years for $464.8M, about $17.9M a system; separately nLight and Lockheed Martin were awarded the 300 to 500 kilowatt Joint Laser Weapons System.
current state · 2026-09-09written 2026-10-04
C08management claimlow confidence
The finance chief says a mid-40s gross margin remains the target the business is striving for, with tariffs the main headwind at about 1.5 points.
against this
  • Adjusted gross margin has not been above 40% excluding refunds in any quarter of 2025 or 2026 read here, and third-quarter guidance's midpoint is 39%.
  • Chinese kilowatt-class laser prices fell about 60% from 2018 to 2024, which caps price in the largest market.
forwardwritten 2026-10-04
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • China's price war. Chinese rivals cut laser prices about 60% in six years and now outsell IPG in China, which buys 29% of its lasers.
  • The margin may not return. Without a one-off tariff refund the margin was about 39%, short of the mid-40s target, and tariffs still cost about 1.5 percentage points.
  • Cash spent at full price. Lumibird Medical takes about $349M of the cash at roughly the price IPG itself trades at, so it adds little unless its margins rise.
  • Defence is going elsewhere. Defence sales fell in both 2026 quarters, and the army's first production contract went to a far more powerful rival laser.
  • Patents. European courts found IPG's adjustable-beam welding lasers infringed Trumpf patents; IPG settled and now pays Trumpf a royalty to keep selling them.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C19factmedium confidence
In China, Raycus holds about 27% of the fiber laser market, above IPG's share; the factory price of a kilowatt-class fiber laser fell from about RMB 500,000 around 2018 to RMB 70,000-100,000 in 2024, and domestic makers held over 70% of units at 10 kilowatts and above in 2024.
against this

IPG's China sales rose 19.1% in 2025 to $291.9M, so it is not simply losing volume there.

current state · 2024-12-31written 2026-10-04
C20facthigh confidence
China was $291.9M, 29.1%, of IPG's 2025 sales; its 10-K says many fiber laser competitors are raising output power and decreasing prices, and that Asian rivals are beginning to export to other markets.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C07facthigh confidence
June 2026 quarter gross margin included about $4.7M of tariff refunds worth about 1.7 points, so adjusted gross margin of 40.7% was about 39.0% without them; third-quarter guidance of 37.5% to 40.5% includes a tariff drag of about 1.5 points.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C10facthigh confidence
IPG made a binding offer for Lumibird Medical at €300M in cash, about $349M, plus up to €50M of earnout; Lumibird Medical had €112.2M of 2025 sales and a 16.8% adjusted EBITDA margin, so the price is about 15.9 times its adjusted EBITDA, with closing expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.
current state · 2026-09-08written 2026-10-04
C14management claimhigh confidence
Defence revenue fell year over year in both the March and June 2026 quarters, offsetting growth elsewhere in Advanced Solutions; IPG does not disclose the amount.
against this

Management said North American revenue rose sequentially in the June quarter partly on defence sales, so the year-over-year fall may reflect a lumpy 2025 comparison.

historical · Q1-Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C21facthigh confidence
Unified Patent Court rulings found IPG's adjustable-mode beam lasers infringed Trumpf patents; IPG settled in the first half of 2026 for $13.3M plus a royalty-bearing licence.
historical · H1 2026written 2026-10-04
What we still do not know
  • How much IPG sells to the military: it reports defence inside a larger line and never gives the figure.
  • What one CROSSBOW system costs, and how many the $10M Lockheed order bought.
  • Whether Chinese makers, now exporting, will push prices down in Europe and America as they did at home.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C40estimatehigh confidence
IPG's defence revenue is below $69.6M a year, under 7% of sales, because it sits inside advanced applications alongside scientific and semiconductor work and fell in 2026.
derivedAdvanced applications' 2025 total (C02) is an upper bound for its directed energy part; defence fell in both 2026 quarters (C14).
against this

The bound is a 2025 figure, set before the Lockheed shipments began in the June 2026 quarter, so 2026 defence sales could sit nearer it than the falling trend suggests.

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-04
C13facthigh confidence
Lockheed Martin placed a follow-on CROSSBOW order worth about $10M in February 2026, after earlier initial systems; shipments began in the June 2026 quarter and continue over several quarters.
current state · 2026-08-04written 2026-10-04
C08management claimlow confidence
The finance chief says a mid-40s gross margin remains the target the business is striving for, with tariffs the main headwind at about 1.5 points.
against this
  • Adjusted gross margin has not been above 40% excluding refunds in any quarter of 2025 or 2026 read here, and third-quarter guidance's midpoint is 39%.
  • Chinese kilowatt-class laser prices fell about 60% from 2018 to 2024, which caps price in the largest market.
forwardwritten 2026-10-04

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveThe price falls to two times sales

    It needs:

    • ○The shares fall until the business, after its cash, costs about twice a year's sales.about ≈$67.51 today, 20% below the last close
  2. Neutral→AttractiveThe margin comes back without refunds

    It needs all of:

    • ○Gross margin, before one-off items, reaches 43% for two quarters in a row without tariff refunds.checked at the next results, due by 3 Nov
    • ○In those same two quarters, reported operating profit is more than 10 cents of each sales dollar.checked at the next results, due by 3 Nov
  3. Neutral→UnattractiveGross margin breaks lower

    It needs:

    • ○Gross margin, before one-off items and without tariff refunds, falls below 37% for two quarters in a row.checked at the next results, due by 3 Nov
We would also be wrong if
  • China sales fall from a year earlier for two quarters while Raycus keeps cutting prices.
  • No second CROSSBOW customer with a disclosed order by the end of 2027.
  • The Lumibird purchase leads to a write-down within three years.

What is coming

  • 3 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether adjusted gross margin holds near 39% without tariff refunds, revenue clears $280M and defence grows again, the reading the next test pre-registers.
Every dated event ahead
  • 3 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether adjusted gross margin holds near 39% without tariff refunds, revenue clears $280M and defence grows again, the reading the next test pre-registers.
  • December 2026 Lumibird Medical acquisition closes: Whether the French approvals land on time and the €300M leaves the cash pile, and from when medical sales and margin start to show in IPG's figures.
  • February 2027 Q4 2026 results, 2027 outlook and the 2026 10-K: A full year's operating margin against the 17% the price needs, the first Lumibird quarter, the use of the buyback and the 2026 China and defence splits.
Since we wrote this
Written
4 Oct
Price the thesis read
$84.05
2 Oct
  • 5 OctThesis reviewThe bet now names what it ridesThe owner asked that every bet name the macro trend behind it, after BWXT's bet was missing its chief executive's case for nuclear over gas.
  • 4 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionThe cash floor is real and the recovery has started, but the price already needs margins near 2023's, and the drone laser is too small to matter yet.
  • 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.

Also checked 3 times with nothing new to act on.

Sources 19

Where this came from

Sources - 19

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-23
    the business description, vertical integration, end-market and China split, competitors, backlog, customers, headcount, CROSSBOW risk factors and the 2021-2025 statements
    backsC01C02C03C05C11C20C22C33C43C46C47C49
  2. S02primarycompany release2026-02-12
    second-half 2025 adjusted EBITDA, the reconciliation and the buyback authorisation
    backsC06C31
  3. S03primarytranscript2026-02-12
    IPG Photonics fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call, held 2026-02-12
    the CROSSBOW launch, the Huntsville site, the 3-kilowatt MINI and the 6 to 8 kilowatt roadmap, and the hundreds-of-millions growth aim
    We're not heading towards the megawatt-type systems. We're not doing government contracting.
    backsC11C12C15
  4. S04primarytranscript2026-05-05
    IPG Photonics first-quarter 2026 earnings call, held 2026-05-05
    the mid-40s gross margin target and its tariff headwind, defence down in the quarter, and the Lockheed order shipping from Q2; the Stifel analyst's question on the margin target
    In general, that's a target we're still striving to get to.
    backsC08C13C14
  5. S05primarycompany filing2026-08-04
    the balance sheet, cash flow, share count, the Trumpf settlement and the Belarus impairment
    backsC03C04C09C21C26C31C32C36C49
  6. S06primarycompany release2026-08-04
    quarterly revenue by business, margins, adjusted EBITDA and the non-GAAP reconciliation
    backsC04C06C07
  7. S07primarytranscript2026-08-04
    tariff refunds, defence down, Lockheed shipments, Lumibird's rationale, third-quarter guidance and capital spending
    Advanced Solutions revenue decreased 9% compared with last year as growth in semiconductor applications was offset by lower revenue in micromachining and defense.
    backsC04C07C09C10C13C14C15C32C36C37C38
  8. S08primarycompany filing2026-07-17
    the price, earnout, Lumibird Medical's sales and margin and the expected closing
    backsC10
  9. S09primarycompany release2026-02-26
    the size and timing of the Lockheed follow-on order
    The order is valued at approximately $10 million and is expected to be delivered over the next several quarters.
    backsC13
  10. S10primarycompany filing2026-02-27
    nLight's revenue by end market and its description of the same lasers
    backsC17
  11. S11primarycompany filing2026-09-09
    the Enduring High Energy Laser award to AeroVironment
    backsC16
  12. S12primarygovernment data2024-07-01
    the size and direction of US directed energy spending
    Overall, DOD requested $789.7 million for directed energy weapons programs in FY2025, down from its $962.4 million request and $1.1 billion appropriation in FY2024.
    backsC18
  13. S13secondaryindustry data2026-01-01
    Chinese market shares and the fall in price per kilowatt-class laser
    China's fiber laser CR2 is approximately 50%; CR3 exceeds 60% ; CR5 exceeds 75%. Raycus's approximately 27% share already surpasses IPG's share in China.
    backsC19
  14. S14tertiarynews2026-09-03
    the unit count, power and value of the E-HEL award and the Joint Laser Weapons System awards
    The US Army awarded AV a $464.8 million contract for 26 LOCUST X3 laser weapons under its first formal directed energy program of record.
    backsC16
  15. S15secondaryvendor data2026-10-04
    Research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, headcount index)
    market value, vendor company value, analyst split and estimates, valuation history, short interest and headcount
    backsC23C26C28C30C33C38
  16. S16secondaryvendor data2026-10-02
    FMP end-of-day price series
    daily closes and the moves around the February and May 2026 prints
    backsC23C27
  17. S17primarycompany filing2026-09-03
    Form 4 filings by IPG insiders, October 2025 to October 2026
    insider sales, their 10b5-1 flags and the director's purchase
    backsC29
  18. S18primarycompany filing2026-04-01
    beneficial ownership as of March 20, 2026 and its footnotes on the founder's trusts and IP Fibre Devices, director biographies, the 2025 annual incentive plan, the PSU and RSU design and the 2022 PSU outcome
    backsC44C45C46
  19. S19primarycompany filing2026-09-08
    the signed share purchase agreement, the French foreign-investment and AMF conditions and the expected fourth-quarter 2026 closing
    backsC50
Rendered from content/IPGP/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-04. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.