Keel Infrastructure
The former Bitfarms: a bitcoin miner that shut its mines to rent powered buildings to AI companies, and has not signed a tenant yet.
The scores
Growthn/a →
The business being valued has no revenue; the $30.4M a quarter that exists is bitcoin mining being shut down.
Business quality2/4 →
Scarce PJM power with 2027 dates is real, but no tenant has priced it and rivals sell the same date with Google-backed credit.
Financial position2/4 →
No maturity before 2031 and $819M liquidity, but the $4-5B build needs equity and debt nobody has committed.
Execution record2/4 ↓
Everything inside its control was delivered; the lease target, Panther Creek's permits, Moses Lake's date and the no-capital-markets pledge all slipped.
Per share capture2/4 →
Convertibles worth 24% of shares convert at $6.86 and $7.41 against a $2.31 close, and the build's equity gap implies 175M to 260M new shares.
Potential2/4 →
A large prize on several independent steps outside Keel's control: a tenant, its credit, project debt and permits. A 3 once one lease signs.
Risk profile2/4 →
The case resolves in one externally controlled step, the first creditworthy lease, with a single tenant likely to be most of it.
Valuation2/4 →
$3.39M a megawatt still pays for all three sites leased at rival rents and financed; a 3 is argued, but nothing is signed.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Power, balance sheet and rivals' leases are filed; the demand, the rent and the critical IT load are management's or estimated.
If it works 3.7× · if it fails you keep up to 22%.
The Verdict
We rate Keel unattractive. The former bitcoin miner has shut its US mines to rent the power connections behind them to AI companies, and that power is genuinely scarce. But nobody has signed a lease, management has stopped repeating its promise of three this year, and billions of building costs are unfunded, so the business is weak. The price is full, not cheap: it assumes most of that power is rented on good terms, though no lease is signed. As a bet it is speculative: the shares might nearly quadruple if all three sites are rented, while little would be left if no tenant signs.
The long caseAI needs power faster than the grid can add it, so a company already holding grid power could lease it as data-centre space, if it signs tenants.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
- 2026-10-18editedre-checked on 17 October: no lease, letter of intent or financing filed or announced since the thesis was written
- On the 10 August call, asked whether Keel still targets three leases in 2026, the chief executive did not repeat the target and said only that negotiations were active at all three sites (S03).
- Panther Creek's final environmental permits are taking 'a few months longer than originally anticipated' (S03).
The 1,513 MW of expansion capacity and Québec's 170 MW are given no value in this arithmetic; management argues the market ascribes them little and that Pennsylvania expansion could be secured by early 2027 (S03).
- 2026-10-18editedprice re-struck at the 16 October close after a 33% fall with the converted-miner group; balance sheet unchanged, no filing since
Management says capital needs will be evaluated post-lease when its cost of capital falls, and that the June notes were earmarked for power expansion rather than construction (S03); a hyperscaler tenant may also fund fit-out, as at Applied Digital's fit-out revenue.
- 2026-10-18editedshare count of the equity gap re-struck at the 16 October close: a lower price makes the same gap more dilutive
Keel's sites are in secondary PJM and Washington locations rather than Applied Digital's purpose-built campuses, and management says Moses Lake may be leased gross with Keel operating it, so neither the rent nor the margin need match (S03).
The company
Keel Infrastructure is what Bitfarms became in April 2026, when it moved from Canada to Delaware. It owns land with signed agreements from electric utilities to deliver power: 350 megawatts at Panther Creek and 110 at Sharon in Pennsylvania, and 18 at Moses Lake in Washington.
It plans to put buildings on that land, fill them with power and cooling, and rent them for about 15 years to big cloud and AI companies, who bring their own computers. It has already bought equipment for Moses Lake.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
How it makes money
Today it barely does. The $30.4M of revenue in the June quarter came from bitcoin mining and selling electricity, both being wound down, and the company lost money.
The plan is rent. A tenant pays every month for a share of the power, for 15 years. A rival, Applied Digital, earns about $1.63M a year per megawatt and keeps about 91 cents of each dollar after running costs. Keel has no tenant, so none of that has started.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
- 2026-10-18editedre-checked on 17 October: no lease, letter of intent or financing filed or announced since the thesis was written
Keel's sites are in secondary PJM and Washington locations rather than Applied Digital's purpose-built campuses, and management says Moses Lake may be leased gross with Keel operating it, so neither the rent nor the margin need match (S03).
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (Q2 2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin mining | 85.0% | Hashing for mining pools, paid in bitcoin; U.S. mining stopped in June 2026, so only Québec remains. |
| Energy sales | 7.8% | Electricity from the Panther Creek and Scrubgrass power plants sold into the PJM grid. |
| Electrical services | 6.6% | Selling and installing electrical components and repair work for outside customers. |
| Cryptocurrency hosting | 0.6% | Housing other miners' machines for a fee, winding down with the mining sites. |
| HPC data-center leasing | 0% | The planned business: renting powered buildings to AI tenants for about 15 years. No lease is signed. |
Who runs it
Ben Gagnon, who ran the old mining business, has been chief executive since 2024, and in July a leasing veteran from Digital Realty joined as president to sign tenants. Insiders own under 2%, though the chief executive bought shares in August. His bonus rides on planning goals, not on signing leases or profit; most of his shares pay out only if the stock keeps up with the wider market.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
- Three quarters of the CEO's equity pays nothing if Keel's shareholder return trails the Russell 3000 average by more than ten points over three years, so the largest piece does ride on the share price (S05).
- The new President's bonus is 75% corporate KPIs, and 2026's corporate goals are not yet disclosed, so leasing may be among them (S26).
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
What Keel has is a date. Its utilities have agreed to deliver most of its Pennsylvania power by the end of 2027. The grid that serves the state, run by PJM, bought 6.8 gigawatts less power than it says it needs for 2028, the second shortfall in a row, and PJM says a new gas plant takes at least four years.
So a tenant wanting power soon has few places to go. Whether that lets Keel charge a high rent is still unknown, because nobody has agreed a rent yet.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The threat
Other former bitcoin miners got there first. TeraWulf and Cipher signed tenants whose rent Google guarantees; Core Scientific and Galaxy rent hundreds of megawatts to CoreWeave. And the biggest buyers build most of their own buildings: almost 60%, by one research firm's count.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
The rivals: MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, WULF, CIFR, CORZ, GLXY, APLD.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT · AMZN · GOOGL · META | Hyperscalers' own-built campuses: Microsoft, Amazon, Google and MetaPriced against it: Different product | On sale | Different product |
| WULF · CIFR | Fluidstack's Google-backstopped leases at TeraWulf and CipherPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| CORZ · GLXY | Core Scientific and Galaxy, leasing to CoreWeave and AMDPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
| APLD | Applied Digital's purpose-built campusesPriced against it: Yes | On sale | Yes |
How big it could get
How big this could get
The market is large and short of supply. In North America's main data-center markets only 1.4% of space sits empty, and 80% of what is being built is spoken for before it opens. One broker expects 62 gigawatts of rented capacity to be added worldwide by 2030.
Keel holds 478 megawatts of it with no tenant, plus applications for 1,513 more that the utilities have not yet agreed.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
- 2026-10-18editedre-checked on 17 October: no lease, letter of intent or financing filed or announced since the thesis was written
The results
The numbers
Sales grew 72% in the year to Dec 2025, faster than the 11% in the year before.
Operating margin is −65%.
Running costs take 57¢ of each sales dollar, up from 22¢ in the year to Dec 2023.
Shareholders' money lost 49% a year, down from −17% in the year to Dec 2023.
It used up $327M more cash than it brought in, 143% of sales, after spending 44% of sales on buildings and equipment.
The share count rose 110% in 2.0 years, and pay in shares costs 6.4% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in December.
| Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | |||
| Sales | $120M | $133M | $229M |
| Sales growth | - | +11% | +72% |
| Profit | |||
| Gross margin | −20% | −12% | −8.2% |
| Operating margin | −42% | −21% | −65% |
| Net margin | −46% | −21% | −124% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | |||
| General and admin | 28% | 46% | 34% |
| Pay in shares | 8.8% | 9.1% | 6.4% |
| Capital spending | 40% | 215% | 44% |
| Cash | |||
| Cash from operations | −$107M | −$142M | −$227M |
| Free cash flow | −$155M | −$429M | −$327M |
| Balance sheet | |||
| Debt | $4.02M | $1.58M | $669M |
| Returns and shares | |||
| Shares (diluted) | 262M | 415M | 552M |
What growth costs
Growth here is not paid for out of sales. Sales are shrinking as mining shuts, so office costs and stock pay take a bigger share each quarter. The real cost is building: roughly $10M or more for each megawatt of power, spent before any tenant pays rent.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Keel's CFO declined to give a cost, telling analysts to use 'rule of thumb industry averages' from equity research (S03); Moses Lake's $129M of Vertiv equipment alone is about $7.2M per gross megawatt (S05).
The last report (10 Aug)
Quarter ended March 2026, filed figures.
The June-quarter results, published on 10 August 2026, were the last of the old business. Mining ended in the United States in June, revenue halved, and the operating loss reached $140.8M, most of it writing off old mining machines early.
What mattered was the call. There was no lease. Panther Creek's last environmental permits are taking a few months longer, and Moses Lake slipped a couple of months. The company spends about $100M a year on overheads, against roughly $819M of cash and bitcoin. Québec's Sherbrooke project still waits for the province.
What it did to the thesisIt confirmed the gap the case rests on. The old mining business is gone, the permits slipped and there is still no tenant, while overheads eat into the cash. The price assumes leases nobody has signed, so the view stays Unattractive.
The quarter in detail
Earnings per share $-0.11 against $-0.07 expected; $-0.11 as filed, with no adjustments.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
Management says neither slip changes the power delivery schedule, the project economics or commercial interest, and that Moses Lake remains the first site to come online in 2027 (S03).
- Cash G&A rose with senior hires and G&A was $31.3M in Q2 against $19.4M a year earlier, so the run rate is rising rather than steady (S02).
- Commitments of $146.9M for the rest of 2026 and $72.7M for 2027 for HPC equipment sit on top of SG&A (S01).
What management did with the money
It did what was in its control: it left Latin America, repaid its lender and moved to the United States. In May it said it needed no new money to reach its first leases; a month later it borrowed $458M through notes that can turn into shares.
Insiders in 2026Q3: 10 purchases and 7 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
The CFO had added 'we will remain opportunistic if attractive opportunities arise'; the closing release still called existing liquidity sufficient to develop the three sites through leasing and the raise opportunistic; and on the Q2 call he said the proceeds were earmarked to expand power capacity at Panther Creek and Scrubgrass (S04, S25, S03).
The parts outside its control have slipped: Panther Creek's environmental permits, Moses Lake's date, Rio Cuarto's power supply cut by its provider in May 2025, and the three-lease target (C07, C06).
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Full. The price already assumes most of Keel's power is rented on good terms and the buildings get financed, before a single tenant has signed.
Because the promise has a deadline. Management said it would sign three leases by the end of 2026, and the next results, due 12 November, are the last before that.
The shares have already run ahead of a lease twice, rising about fivefold in 2025 and nearly fourfold in 2026, and fell back each time a report came with no tenant. In October they fell another third with no news, as other former miners did, to about two-thirds below June's high. The chief executive and the chief operating officer bought shares in August.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
- On the 10 August call, asked whether Keel still targets three leases in 2026, the chief executive did not repeat the target and said only that negotiations were active at all three sites (S03).
- Panther Creek's final environmental permits are taking 'a few months longer than originally anticipated' (S03).
- 2026-10-18editedthe 252-session window now starts at the October 2025 high, so the multiple fell rather than rose; short interest at the 30 September settlement
How we read the multiple
Counting its debt and cash, the whole company is valued at about $1.62B, or $3.39M for each megawatt it has secured.
For the price to work:
- Those megawatts would support about 375 megawatts of computers, since some power runs cooling.
- Rented like Applied Digital's, they would earn about $555M a year after running costs.
- So the price is about three years of that profit, paid before any lease.
- Building costs another $4-5B; the part shareholders must find would take 175M to 260M new shares after October's fall.
Against its own history. Keel's past numbers describe a bitcoin miner, so its own history says nothing about what a landlord with no tenant is worth.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The 1,513 MW of expansion capacity and Québec's 170 MW are given no value in this arithmetic; management argues the market ascribes them little and that Pennsylvania expansion could be secured by early 2027 (S03).
- 2026-10-18editedprice re-struck at the 16 October close after a 33% fall with the converted-miner group; balance sheet unchanged, no filing since
Keel's sites are in secondary PJM and Washington locations rather than Applied Digital's purpose-built campuses, and management says Moses Lake may be leased gross with Keel operating it, so neither the rent nor the margin need match (S03).
Management says capital needs will be evaluated post-lease when its cost of capital falls, and that the June notes were earmarked for power expansion rather than construction (S03); a hyperscaler tenant may also fund fit-out, as at Applied Digital's fit-out revenue.
- 2026-10-18editedshare count of the equity gap re-struck at the 16 October close: a lower price makes the same gap more dilutive
Keel's sites are designed to NVIDIA's liquid-cooled GB300 reference architecture, which runs at a low power usage effectiveness, so the ratio could sit near the top of the range; but the Pennsylvania designs were still being 'refined' for density on the Q2 call (S03, S05).
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on price for each $1 of net worth, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | price for each $1 of net worth |
|---|---|---|
| GLXY | Galaxy Digital | 1.7× |
| APLD | Applied Digital | 3.0× |
| KEEL | Keel Infrastructure | 4.3× |
| CIFR | Cipher Mining | 6.5× |
| WULF | TeraWulf | 38.5× |
The middle of the other 4 is 4.8. Keel Infrastructure Corp. is 3rd cheapest of 5.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
Keel sits mid-group among five former miners that now lease, and the group fell together in October; but their prices buy signed rent, while Keel's buys none.
The bet: what it pays if it works
This is a bet that a former miner becomes a landlord to AI companies. If all three sites are rented on terms like its rivals', the business could be worth a few times today's value in two to three years, before counting the new shares the building may need.
If no tenant signs, the cash drains on overheads and equipment, the notes are repaid first, and what is left is land, power agreements and machinery worth at most what the accounts carry them at, a small part of today's price.
| Revenue in two to three years | Leased critical IT megawatts needed | At the stated multiple |
|---|---|---|
| $160.00M | about 98 at 100% kept | 1.0× |
| $610.00M (the big win) | about 374 at 100% kept | 3.7× |
| $790.00M (market forecast) | about 485 at 100% kept | 4.9× |
JLL forecasts 62 GW of leased capacity added by 2030; 1% of North America's 2028 additions, about 110 MW, beside the 375 MW Keel holds, at Applied Digital's filed rent: about $790M. On that forecast, $790.00M pays 4.9× from today's value: a Fair bet on the market case.
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $325.48M of revenue (about 200 leased critical IT megawatts); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $813.70M of revenue (about 499 leased critical IT megawatts), at the same multiple.
The steps it has to take
- Done Latin America exited and U.S. bitcoin mining decommissioned
- Done $458M convertible closed, liquidity about $819M
- In progress Panther Creek's remaining environmental permits issued due 2026-12-31
- In progress First lease signed at a priority site due 2026-12-31
- In progress Pennsylvania expansion: new electric supply agreements announced due 2027-01-31
- In progress Sherbrooke approved by Québec's ministry and land closed due 2027-03-31
- Not started Project debt raised against a lease, no new shares that quarter due 2027-06-30
- In progress Moses Lake energised and billing due 2027-12-31
- Not started Panther Creek and Sharon ready for service due 2027-12-31
The detail behind the label
The evidence under this - 9 claims
- On the 10 August call, asked whether Keel still targets three leases in 2026, the chief executive did not repeat the target and said only that negotiations were active at all three sites (S03).
- Panther Creek's final environmental permits are taking 'a few months longer than originally anticipated' (S03).
Keel's sites are in secondary PJM and Washington locations rather than Applied Digital's purpose-built campuses, and management says Moses Lake may be leased gross with Keel operating it, so neither the rent nor the margin need match (S03).
- 2026-10-18editedre-checked on 17 October: no lease, letter of intent or financing filed or announced since the thesis was written
- Cash G&A rose with senior hires and G&A was $31.3M in Q2 against $19.4M a year earlier, so the run rate is rising rather than steady (S02).
- Commitments of $146.9M for the rest of 2026 and $72.7M for 2027 for HPC equipment sit on top of SG&A (S01).
Where we disagree with the market
A company with scarce power about to sign leases, so the rent is a matter of when, not whether.
The power is scarce and real, but the price already pays for all three sites rented and financed.
Most of the 2.2 gigawatts in the company's headline is applications, not agreements, and the price is already set as if the 478 megawatts that are agreed were rented out.
We are wrong if a big tenant with strong credit signs at Panther Creek or Sharon this year, and lenders pay for the building without new shares.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 7 claims
The 1,513 MW of expansion capacity and Québec's 170 MW are given no value in this arithmetic; management argues the market ascribes them little and that Pennsylvania expansion could be secured by early 2027 (S03).
- 2026-10-18editedprice re-struck at the 16 October close after a 33% fall with the converted-miner group; balance sheet unchanged, no filing since
- 2026-10-18editedre-checked on 17 October: no lease, letter of intent or financing filed or announced since the thesis was written
Management says capital needs will be evaluated post-lease when its cost of capital falls, and that the June notes were earmarked for power expansion rather than construction (S03); a hyperscaler tenant may also fund fit-out, as at Applied Digital's fit-out revenue.
- 2026-10-18editedshare count of the equity gap re-struck at the 16 October close: a lower price makes the same gap more dilutive
- No counterparty, volume or term has been disclosed, and the same language ('active conversations with multiple potential customers') was used in May before a target that was not repeated in August (S04, S03).
- Rivals with the same kind of converted sites signed tenants in 2025 and 2026 (S15, S16, S17, S18), so a site with competing bidders and no signature after 18 months is not the industry norm.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- No tenant yet Eighteen months into the plan, no lease is signed, and the three promised for 2026 were not promised again in August.
- Building needs money Building costs $4-5B. Lenders want a tenant with strong credit; without one, shareholders must find far more, which means new shares.
- Debt ranks first $1.05B of notes are owed before shareholders get anything; they turn into shares only if the price roughly triples.
- Schedules slip Panther Creek's permits and Moses Lake's opening have both moved later this year.
- Grid rules may change PJM is rewriting how large new users connect while its supply is short, which could change the terms of future power.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
- 2026-10-18editedre-checked on 17 October: no lease, letter of intent or financing filed or announced since the thesis was written
Management says capital needs will be evaluated post-lease when its cost of capital falls, and that the June notes were earmarked for power expansion rather than construction (S03); a hyperscaler tenant may also fund fit-out, as at Applied Digital's fit-out revenue.
- 2026-10-18editedshare count of the equity gap re-struck at the 16 October close: a lower price makes the same gap more dilutive
Management says neither slip changes the power delivery schedule, the project economics or commercial interest, and that Moses Lake remains the first site to come online in 2027 (S03).
He also said capacity is available 'for now' to finance selective non-investment-grade customers, and that Sharon's structures pair fast-growing AI companies with investment-grade credit support (S03).
PJM's 'Critical Issue Fast Path - Large Load Additions' process is rewriting how new large loads connect while capacity is short (S08), so the terms on which new load is granted could change before Keel's applications resolve.
What we still do not know
- How much computer capacity each site really supports: the company has not said, so our 375 megawatts is an estimate from rivals.
- What rent Pennsylvania or Washington power commands: no public figure exists for either state.
- Whether PJM's new rules for large users will touch agreements Keel already holds.
- When Panther Creek's remaining environmental permits arrive.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Keel's sites are designed to NVIDIA's liquid-cooled GB300 reference architecture, which runs at a low power usage effectiveness, so the ratio could sit near the top of the range; but the Pennsylvania designs were still being 'refined' for density on the Q2 call (S03, S05).
PJM's 'Critical Issue Fast Path - Large Load Additions' process is rewriting how new large loads connect while capacity is short (S08), so the terms on which new load is granted could change before Keel's applications resolve.
Management says neither slip changes the power delivery schedule, the project economics or commercial interest, and that Moses Lake remains the first site to come online in 2027 (S03).
What would change our view
- Unattractive→NeutralA creditworthy first lease, funded by project debt
It needs all of:
- ○A tenant with strong credit, or a guarantor, signs for 100 megawatts or more at Panther Creek or Sharon, with rent and length disclosed.watched as it happens
- ○The building is paid for with project loans, and no new shares are sold that quarter.watched as it happens
- Unattractive→AttractiveAll three priority sites leased and the pipeline secured
It needs all of:
- ○Leases are signed at all three sites, covering all 478 secured megawatts.watched as it happens
- ○Pennsylvania utilities agree to deliver 300 megawatts or more of new power on top.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
- No lease of any size is signed at any site by 30 June 2027.
- Panther Creek or Sharon slips past the end of 2027.
What is coming
- 12 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether any lease is signed with investment-grade credit, whether the three-lease target is repeated, and how far Panther Creek's permits slipped.
Every dated event ahead
- 12 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether any lease is signed with investment-grade credit, whether the three-lease target is repeated, and how far Panther Creek's permits slipped.
- December 2026 First 50 MW of PPL power at Panther Creek: Whether the utility schedule the scarcity case rests on holds; a slip would weaken the delivery-date advantage.
- 31 December 2026 Year-end deadline for three signed leases: Management's own dated test: three leases would close the main gap in the view, none would confirm it.
- January 2027 Update on Pennsylvania expansion power: Whether any of the 1,513 MW of applications becomes secured power, the condition the Attractive route names.
- March 2027 Sherbrooke land purchase closes: Whether the 96 MW Québec campus clears its ministry approval and becomes a fourth site.
Since we wrote this
- 18 OctThesis reviewShares fell 33% with peers; no lease signed. View heldThe owner asked for a run. Nothing was filed or announced, and the whole group fell as far, so the price now pays about three years of fully-leased rent profit instead of four, for leases still unsigned.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe bet now names what it ridesThe owner asked that every bet name the macro trend behind it, after BWXT's bet was missing its chief executive's case for nuclear over gas.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the 10-K's Part III and filings.
- 2 OctThesis writtenUnattractive, medium convictionWritten seven weeks after the June-quarter results, with no lease signed and the three-lease target for 2026 left unrepeated on the call.
Also checked 1 time with nothing new to act on.
Sources 28
Sources - 28
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-08-10the redomiciliation, the site cessations, the capacity KPIs and their definitions, the balance sheet, the convertible notes and capped calls, the warrants, the commitments note, the segment note, the class action, Sherbrooke, the liquidity discussion and the at-the-market historybacksC01C02C03C05C09C10C11C13C14C30C35C36C37C42C48
- S02primarycompany release2026-08-10liquidity of $819M at 7 August, bitcoin sold and held, the income statement and the adjusted EBITDA reconciliationbacksC02C08C09C12C37
- S03primarytranscript2026-08-10Keel Q2 2026 earnings call transcriptsite-by-site status, the permit and Moses Lake slips, the $100M cash SG&A, the investment-grade financing remark, management's account of tenant demand; and twenty analyst turns from nine analysts, a separate origin from the answers, including the unanswered question on the three-lease target
On permits, we are in the final stages of our last few environmental permits. All have been submitted and are progressing. However, the final process with regulators is taking a few months longer than originally anticipated.
backsC04C07C08C12C25C35C37C38 - S04primarytranscript2026-05-11Keel Q1 2026 earnings call transcriptthe three-lease target, the CFO's statement that lease execution needed no debt or equity markets, the Panther Creek firm-service conversion and the Sharon and Moses Lake descriptions
Our 2026 priority is clear: sign 3 leases by year-end, one at Panther Creek, one at Sharon and one at Moses Lake.
backsC04C06C11 - S05primarycompany filing2026-03-31the per-site capacity table, Key Development Sites, the Stronghold case study, the Vertiv commitment, the competition section (classes only), headcount and the risk factorsbacksC03C04C13C30C34C38C42C43C44C45C46C48
- S06primarycompany filing2026-08-21four open-market purchases by the CEO and COO with no Rule 10b5-1 flag, no open-market sales, and the April equity grantsbacksC32
- S07secondaryvendor data2026-10-18Research pack for KEEL (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, IBKR/FMP bars), frozen beside this thesisthe closing price and bars to 16 October 2026, the price-move decomposition, the 52-week range, the rating series, short interest at the 30 September settlement, insider statistics and the absence of any 8-K after 10 AugustbacksC05C29C30C31C49
- S08primaryregulator2026-07-14PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report PJM Interconnectionthe capacity shortfall, the cap-clearing price, the reserve margin against target, the large-load share of the forecast increase and the Large Load Additions fast-path process; downloaded with curl and read with pdftotext
The total procured capacity in the RTO, which includes RPM and FRR, is 149,181.6 MW UCAP or 6,831.3 MW UCAP below the RTO Reliability Requirement. This is very similar to the prior BRA where the shortage was 6,516 MW UCAP.
backsC19 - S09primaryregulator2026-05-06PJM Interconnection - Powering Reliability Through Market Design (2026-05-06) PJM Interconnectionhow long new generation takes in PJM, from the grid operator; retrieved for the GEV thesis
Today, a new natural gas turbine plant - the reference technology for the capacity market - requires at least four years under optimistic assumptions from financial investment decision to commercial operation, due to supply chain constraints on major equipment (gas turbines, step-up transformers)
backsC20 - S10primaryindustry data2026-08-01vacancy, construction, pre-leasing and available supply; retrieved for the BTDR thesis
primary market vacancy fell to a record low of 1.4% in H1 from 1.6% in H1 2025. Total under-construction capacity across primary markets increased by 24.8% in H1 to a record high of 7,481.1 MW. Preleasing activity accelerated with commitments made on 80.4% of all under-construction capacity, compared with 74.3% a year ago. Less than 1,500 MW of future capacity across all primary markets remains available, representing approximately six months of demand
backsC21 - S11primaryindustry data2026-08-11JLL news release - Data center demand exceeds expectations as H1 2026 absorption hits record 25 GW JLLabsorption, construction, pre-commitment, the non-credit financing spread and the vacancy outlook
North America data center demand reached an all-time high in the first half of 2026 with 25 GW of absorption, double the level from a year ago and five times that of two years prior. … North America now has 66 GW under construction, 95% of which is pre-committed. … non-credit tenant deals are evaluated ad hoc with spreads approximately 200-300 basis points wider. … we're likely to see vacancy remain near zero through 2028.
backsC22 - S12primaryindustry data2026-01-05the leased-segment forecast; same firm as S11, so one origin
The leased data center segment, which includes colocation and build-to-suit facilities, is expected to add 62 GW between 2026 and 2030 to meet sustained cloud demand, increasing AI workloads and shifting enterprise requirements. … hyperscalers could construct 41 GW of owner-occupied capacity between 2026 and 2030, doubling the size of this segment to 70 GW.
backsC40 - S13primaryindustry data2026-04-07Synergy Research Group: hyperscale operators to account for 67% of all data center capacity by 2031 Synergy Research Groupthe own-built share
Almost 60% of that hyperscale capacity is now in own-built, owned data centers with the balance being in leased facilities.
backsC23 - S14primarygovernment data2026-05-19a government measure of the load the driver adds
Across all cases, servers alone accounted for an estimated 7% of commercial sector electricity consumption in 2025.
backsC24 - S15primarycompany filing2026-08-05the Fluidstack leases and the Google backstop paid for in warrantsbacksC15
- S16primarycompany filing2026-08-04the asset representing Google's agreement to make Fluidstack's lease paymentsbacksC15
- S17primarycompany filing2026-07-28590 MW leased to CoreWeave, 395 MW billing, and the July 2026 AMD and neocloud leasesbacksC16
- S18primarycompany filing2026-08-10Helios: 526 MW of critical IT on about 800 MW of gross power leased to CoreWeave for 15 yearsbacksC16
- S19primarycompany filing2026-07-29the contracted lease table, the filed rent per megawatt and the NOI marginbacksC17
- S20primarytranscript2026-07-27Applied Digital fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript APLDApplied Digital management's $11-13M per megawatt build cost
you can do the math and kind of walk through that we have about $2-plus billion of net operating income contracted on an annual basis at this point
backsC18 - S21secondaryindustry data2026-03-02CoinShares Bitcoin Mining Report - Q1 2026 CoinSharesthe cost per megawatt of an AI site against a mining site
The cost differential between BTC mining infrastructure (~$700K-1M/MW) and AI infrastructure (~$8M-15M/MW) is wide
backsC18 - S22primarycompany release2026-09-09PowerSecure news release: PowerSecure executes agreement with Keel Infrastructure to support Moses Lake Data Center Campus PowerSecure (Southern Company)the supplier's own account of the Moses Lake backup power agreement; read through press_fetch.py
today announced it has entered into an agreement with Keel Infrastructure (Nasdaq, TSX: KEEL) to provide a fully integrated backup resiliency solution for Keel Infrastructure's data center campus in Moses Lake, Washington.
backsC33 - S23primarycompany filing2026-08-05121 IT MW against an estimated 133 gross MW at Tydal, as recorded in the BTDR thesisread, but no claim rests on it
- S24primarycompany filing2026-02-25the board's reasons for the redomiciliation (U.S. capital pools, index eligibility, customers and CFIUS); it is the exhibit the source audit reads as the full-year release, and carries no results or guidanceread, but no claim rests on it
- S25primarycompany filing2026-06-10the $350M announcement (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1812477/000121390026065369/ea029367401ex99-1.htm), the upsized $400M pricing (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1812477/000121390026065506/ea029374801ex99-1.htm), the $458M closing with the capped call to $11.86, the indenture (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1812477/000121390026067042/ea029411501ex4-1.htm, not read in full) and the closing release's statement that existing liquidity sufficed through leasingbacksC11
- S26primarycompany filing2026-07-06the President's appointment, his Digital Realty record, salary, a bonus weighted 75% to corporate KPIs and 25% individual, and his sign-on options and RSUsbacksC43
- S27primarycompany filing2024-07-08the date Ben Gagnon became chief executive and his previous role as Chief Mining OfficerbacksC43
- S28secondaryvendor data2026-10-18FMP end-of-day closes for KEEL, IREN, CIFR, GLXY, APLD, WULF, HUT, CORZ, BTCUSD and QQQ, 1 to 16 October 2026the closes on 1 and 16 October 2026 for Keel, seven converted miners and AI hosts, bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 fundbacksC49