The company that builds every reactor and makes all the fuel for the US Navy's nuclear submarines and carriers, plus a smaller business making parts for power plants.
Our viewNeutralMedium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 →
Revenue grew 18.3% in 2025 and 18% in Q2 2026, but only 9% organic, and the naval half grew 2%.
Business quality3/4 →
The naval half is protected, the only two Category I plants, but the commercial third competes with Doosan and Framatome on price.
Financial position3/4 ↑
About $1.41B of net debt, roughly 2.1 times guided profit before depreciation, with notes due 2028 and 2029 to refinance.
Execution record4/4 →
Eight beats in eight quarters and the last Investor Day's targets exceeded: 15% yearly growth against mid-single digits promised.
Per share capture3/4 →
Shares flat at 92.0M and deals paid in cash, but buybacks stopped in 2026 and margins fell as acquisitions grew revenue.
Potential3/4 ↑
$8.4B of backlog and $3.1B of NNSA awards are committed; the commercial new-build wave is expected, not signed.
Risk profile3/4 →
One buyer, the US government, is 68% of revenue: disclosed, long-standing and survivable, but one budget decision moves it.
Valuation3/4 ↑
20.6 times 2026's guided profit before depreciation pays for the plan through 2028 at its 16.9 norm, not for the 2030 targets.
Evidence quality3/4 →
The moat, orders and price rest on filings, the NRC and CRS; the growth the price needs rests on management's plan.
The bet · 2-3 years
Safe, little upside0.9×
If it works 0.9× · if it fails you keep about 77%.
The Verdict
We rate BWX Technologies neutral. Two thirds of it is a protected business: the only maker of the Navy's reactors and their fuel, paid at cost plus a steady fee, so the business is solid. The price is fair: about right for two more years of the company's own plan, with no credit yet for its 2030 targets. As a bet on the commercial power-plant business it is expensive and defensive: little lost if that business stalls, and little gained if it works. What would change our view is the naval half growing profit again while the commercial half signs its first order for a new reactor.
The long caseNuclear costs a lot to build and little to run, gas the reverse; with turbines sold out, extending old reactors is the cheapest new power.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C31inferencemedium confidence
The naval half is a structural monopoly on volume but not on price: only BWXT's two plants may make the fuel, designs are classified, and the Navy has no other supplier, yet contracts bill allowable cost plus fee, so the shelter shows up as steady orders at about a 21% margin before depreciation.
derivedThe licences (C06), sole supply to every class (C07), the 10-K on limited competition and cost-based pricing (C08), and Q2 2026 segment margin (C03).
against this
Naval Reactors owns the designs, so the customer controls the technology and could in principle license a second maker; none is proposed (S01).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-05
C22inferencemedium confidence
At $13.77B of company value the price is about 20.6 times the $667M midpoint of 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, against BWXT's 16.9 median in prior years. At 16.9 times the price needs about $815M, a level the 2030 plan's straight line reaches between 2027 and 2028.
derivedCompany value (C21) over the guidance midpoint (C12); $1.15B in 2030 from $667M in 2026 is about 14.6% a year, giving about $764M in 2027 and $876M in 2028 (C11).
against this
The 16.9 norm was struck when the company grew 5% to 8% a year; on the 2030 target midpoint the same company value is about 12 times (C11).
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C12management claimmedium confidence
On 3 August 2026 BWXT raised 2026 guidance to revenue of about $3.8B, adjusted EBITDA of $662M to $672M, non-GAAP EPS of $4.70 to $4.80 and free cash flow of $345M to $360M; Government Operations revenue up high single digits at about a 20.5% margin and Commercial revenue up about 45% at about 13%.
Government Operations grew 2% in Q2 2026 with lower profit (C03), so the second half must carry the high-single-digit year.
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C11management claimmedium confidence
At its 29 September 2026 Investor Day BWXT targeted 2030 revenue of $5.5B to $6B, adjusted EBITDA of $1.1B to $1.2B, free cash flow of $525M to $575M and over $2B of cumulative free cash flow from 2026 to 2030. It guided Government Operations to high single to low double-digit yearly revenue growth, with naval propulsion in mid single digits, and Commercial to high-teens revenue growth with its EBITDA margin rising from about 13% and EBITDA growing over 20% a year.
Government Operations adjusted EBITDA fell in Q2 2026 (C03), and over half of Commercial's Q2 growth was acquired (C13).
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C34estimatelow confidence
Commercial Operations without the medical business should earn about $145M of adjusted EBITDA in 2026, about 13% of the $1.1B of revenue management expects; at the Investor Day's 20% yearly growth that is about $210M in 2028.
derivedThe 13% segment margin guide (C12), management's $1.1B of 2026 commercial revenue without medical (S09) and its over-20% EBITDA growth target (C11).
against this
First-half commercial bookings fell 36% (C04), and the growth target assumes new-build orders not yet signed (C29).
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C29management claimlow confidence
On the Q2 2026 call management said there is 'a credible opportunity to secure at least one new build nuclear equipment order before the year-end', among SMRs at Darlington, AP1000s and BWRX-300s in the US, and that US AP1000 orders wait on government financing deals.
Commercial bookings fell to $464.0M in the first half from $721.6M a year earlier (C04).
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C03facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue was $901.6M, up 18% (9% organic): Government Operations $601.3M, up 2%, and Commercial Operations $302.5M, up 72% (33% organic). Government Operations adjusted EBITDA fell to $126.5M from $133.0M and its operating income to $105.7M from $109.4M; Commercial adjusted EBITDA rose to $36.1M from $16.2M. Diluted EPS was $0.97 ($1.07 adjusted) and free cash flow $115.0M.
A nuclear submarine needs a reactor and enough fuel to run for decades. BWXT makes both. Its Lynchburg, Virginia plant builds the reactors and cores, and its Nuclear Fuel Services plant in Tennessee makes the fuel for every reactor the US Navy runs, from the Virginia-class submarines to the Ford-class carriers.
The other third of the company sells steam generators, reactor parts, fuel and repair services to power-plant owners. It is the only maker of heavy nuclear parts in North America, and most of its customers are Canadian utilities.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
BWXT has two segments. Government Operations makes naval nuclear reactors, cores and fuel for the Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program, downblends uranium and runs government sites through joint ventures; its subsidiary NFS is the sole provider of nuclear fuel for the U.S. Navy. Commercial Operations makes steam generators, reactor components and CANDU fuel and is the only commercial heavy nuclear component maker in North America.
The NRC has licensed two Category I fuel fabrication plants, which may hold weapons-grade uranium: Nuclear Fuel Services in Erwin, Tennessee and the BWXT Nuclear Operations Group plant in Lynchburg, Virginia. Both belong to BWXT.
NFS makes the fuel for all U.S. naval nuclear reactors, and BWXT fuel and reactors power the Ohio, Virginia, Seawolf, Los Angeles and Columbia-class submarines and the Nimitz and Ford-class carriers. On 1 October 2026 BWXT announced a naval fuel contract of about $189M, to be completed in August 2027.
The 10-K says competition for naval components and fuel is limited by technical and regulatory standards, classified designs and high capital and licensing costs, and that naval contracts bill allowable costs under federal acquisition rules. It names Framatome, Cameco, Doosan, AECON, Westinghouse and AtkinsRéalis as Commercial Operations competitors, competing on price, technical ability, quality and timeliness.
About 68% of sales come from the US government. The Navy orders reactors and fuel years ahead and pays BWXT's allowed costs plus a fee, so the money is steady but the margin is capped.
The commercial half is paid by utilities, roughly half for manufacturing parts and half for services and engineering. That money depends on plants being refurbished or built, and BWXT has to win each job on price.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C02facthigh confidence
2025 revenue was $3,198.4M, up 18.3% from $2,703.7M: Government Operations $2,350.1M and Commercial Operations $853.1M. Operating income was $404.5M, net income $329.9M, diluted EPS $3.58 ($4.01 adjusted), adjusted EBITDA $574.3M and free cash flow $295.3M.
Sales to the U.S. Government were $2,200.0M of 2025's $3,198.4M revenue, about 68%, against about 76% in 2024 and 75% in 2023. The U.S. Government was 91% of Government Operations revenue, and large utilities were 63% of Commercial Operations revenue.
Commercial Operations' 2025 revenue was $429.2M from nuclear manufacturing and $423.8M from services and engineering, against $288.8M and $235.2M in 2024; $684.9M of it came from Canadian customers.
The 10-K says competition for naval components and fuel is limited by technical and regulatory standards, classified designs and high capital and licensing costs, and that naval contracts bill allowable costs under federal acquisition rules. It names Framatome, Cameco, Doosan, AECON, Westinghouse and AtkinsRéalis as Commercial Operations competitors, competing on price, technical ability, quality and timeliness.
Naval reactors, cores and fuel for the Navy's submarines and carriers, plus valves and fittings.
Uranium processing and nuclear services
12.7%
Downblending, depleted uranium and enrichment programmes for NNSA, and government site services.
Advanced reactor design and engineering
4.6%
Government-funded microreactor and space reactor work, including Pele and now Janus.
Commercial nuclear manufacturing
13.4%
Steam generators, reactor parts and CANDU fuel for utilities, mostly in Canada.
Commercial nuclear services and engineering
13.2%
Plant inspection, refurbishment, engineering and the medical isotope business being sold.
Who runs it
Rex Geveden has run BWXT since 2017. Over the last five years it beat its own growth targets, partly through acquisitions. Insiders own under 1% of the company, and the chief executive sold 40,000 shares in the past year under a plan set in advance.
Most of the yearly bonus rides on operating profit and cash, and the long-term award on profit and the return on money invested, so pay follows profit, not sales.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C42facthigh confidence
Rex Geveden has been chief executive since January 2017 after a year as chief operating officer; Michael Fitzgerald, at BWXT since 2022, became chief financial officer in 2025; Joseph Miller runs Government Operations.
The 2025 annual bonus paid on operating income (70%), free cash flow (25%) and safety (5%), with a 133.4% financial multiplier; long-term performance units pay on cumulative adjusted EBITDA (40%), average return on invested capital (40%) and relative shareholder return (20%), and the 2023 to 2025 award paid 127.2%.
In the year to October 2026 insiders made 22 open-market sales of 45,744 shares and no purchases; 40,000 shares, all the chief executive's, were sold under a 10b5-1 plan, and 5,744 by the CFO, the accounting chief and a director were discretionary, at $208.61 to $214.71. The 2026Q3 bought-to-sold ratio was 0.50 against a 12-quarter median of 2.38.
historical · 2025-10-24 to 2026-10-05written 2026-10-05
C37management claimmedium confidence
Management says that against its last Investor Day targets of mid-single-digit growth it delivered 15% yearly revenue growth (8.5% organic), 12% adjusted EBITDA growth and 18% free cash flow growth.
Part of the 15% was bought: organic growth was 8.5%, and the Kinectrics acquisition added revenue the old targets never assumed.
historical · 2021 to 2026written 2026-10-05
02
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
The regulator has licensed exactly two plants in America to handle the highly enriched uranium naval fuel needs, and BWXT owns both. The reactor designs are classified, and the Navy has no second supplier to turn to.
So nobody can take this work away. But the protection does not mean high prices: the Navy pays cost plus a fee, and the shipyards set the pace, building barely more than one Virginia-class submarine a year against a goal of two.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C06facthigh confidence
The NRC has licensed two Category I fuel fabrication plants, which may hold weapons-grade uranium: Nuclear Fuel Services in Erwin, Tennessee and the BWXT Nuclear Operations Group plant in Lynchburg, Virginia. Both belong to BWXT.
NFS makes the fuel for all U.S. naval nuclear reactors, and BWXT fuel and reactors power the Ohio, Virginia, Seawolf, Los Angeles and Columbia-class submarines and the Nimitz and Ford-class carriers. On 1 October 2026 BWXT announced a naval fuel contract of about $189M, to be completed in August 2027.
CRS reports the Navy bought two Virginia-class submarines a year from FY2011 to FY2024 and one in FY2025, at about $5.0B each, and requested two for FY2026. Actual production has never reached 2.0 boats a year and since 2022 has been about 1.1 to 1.2; the goal is 2.0 and then 2.33 with AUKUS.
The naval half is a structural monopoly on volume but not on price: only BWXT's two plants may make the fuel, designs are classified, and the Navy has no other supplier, yet contracts bill allowable cost plus fee, so the shelter shows up as steady orders at about a 21% margin before depreciation.
derivedThe licences (C06), sole supply to every class (C07), the 10-K on limited competition and cost-based pricing (C08), and Q2 2026 segment margin (C03).
against this
Naval Reactors owns the designs, so the customer controls the technology and could in principle license a second maker; none is proposed (S01).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-05
The threat
The naval half has no rival. The commercial half does. Doosan in Korea supplied the big parts for every recent US reactor, and Curtiss-Wright sells pumps for the same design. Being North America's only heavy-parts maker wins no order on its own.
In newer markets, other companies are building the special fuel small reactors need, and four rivals were picked beside BWXT for the Army's microreactor programme.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C15facthigh confidence
Doosan was selected to supply major equipment, including steam generators and reactor vessels, for all four US AP1000 units built at Vogtle and V.C. Summer.
Curtiss-Wright's 10-K says it supplies reactor coolant pumps and control rod drive mechanisms for the Westinghouse AP1000 and products supporting naval nuclear propulsion; its Naval & Power segment had $1,503.0M of 2025 sales, 43% of the company.
The commercial half sells into a contested market: Doosan built every US AP1000 component set, Framatome and Westinghouse sell the same parts and services, and Curtiss-Wright sells AP1000 pumps, so being North America's only heavy maker wins no order by itself.
derivedDoosan's AP1000 record (C15), the 10-K's named rivals and price competition (C08), and Curtiss-Wright's 10-K (C16).
against this
BWXT says reactor vendors such as Westinghouse and GE Vernova need very large components and it is adding about 40% to its heavy-component bay (S09).
current state · 2026-10-05written 2026-10-05
C17management claimmedium confidence
Management says BWXT makes a few hundred kilograms of TRISO fuel a year at Lynchburg, that TRISO-X, Standard Nuclear and others are entering, and that it is not yet ready to commit capital to a commercial TRISO plant in Wyoming with Kairos. The NRC lists TRISO-X and Kairos among new fuel plant applications.
On 31 August 2026 the Army said its Janus programme selected five vendors to own, build and run microreactors on bases, with up to $2.2B across FY2027 to FY2031 paid only on technical milestones, contractor-owned reactors and significant vendor investment. BWXT's 20 MWe BANR will go to Fort Campbell, targeting groundbreaking in late 2028 and operation in the early 2030s; Tata Chemicals signed a letter of intent for up to eight units.
Centrus Energy, for national-security enrichmentPriced against it: One segment only
Government Operations
Announced
One segment only
XE · STDN
TRISO-X (X-energy) and Standard NuclearPriced against it: One segment only
Government Operations
Announced
One segment only
03
How big it could get
How big this could get
The naval prize is set by how many boats the Navy builds. The plan is two Virginia-class and one Columbia-class submarine a year, each needing one BWXT reactor, plus a carrier every four years.
Shipyards have built only 1.1 to 1.2 Virginia-class boats a year since 2022, so BWXT already makes over half of what the plan would need. Growth comes when the yards speed up, not from winning share.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C09facthigh confidence
CRS reports the Navy bought two Virginia-class submarines a year from FY2011 to FY2024 and one in FY2025, at about $5.0B each, and requested two for FY2026. Actual production has never reached 2.0 boats a year and since 2022 has been about 1.1 to 1.2; the goal is 2.0 and then 2.33 with AUKUS.
Management says the Navy's plan is two Virginia-class and one Columbia-class submarine a year, with Ford carriers moving to a four-year order cadence; BWXT produces 'at least two a year, more like three a year' naval reactors and has delivered 425. A nuclear battleship is not in its forecast.
CRS reports the yards have built only 1.1 to 1.2 Virginia boats a year since 2022 and never 2.0 (C09).
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C07facthigh confidence
NFS makes the fuel for all U.S. naval nuclear reactors, and BWXT fuel and reactors power the Ohio, Virginia, Seawolf, Los Angeles and Columbia-class submarines and the Nimitz and Ford-class carriers. On 1 October 2026 BWXT announced a naval fuel contract of about $189M, to be completed in August 2027.
The Navy and the nuclear weapons agency have signed: backlog reached $8.4B in June, up from $6.0B, including a new $1.5B enrichment programme and a $189M naval fuel order in October.
The commercial backlog has not grown, at $1.6B, and no new-reactor order is signed.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C04facthigh confidence
Backlog was $8,398.1M at 30 June 2026 against $6,015.2M a year earlier: Government Operations $6,797.6M (from $4,435.6M) and Commercial Operations $1,600.5M (from $1,579.6M). It included $2,256.4M of unfunded U.S. Government backlog, and BWXT expects about 55% of backlog as revenue by the end of 2027. First-half bookings were $2,435.3M in Government Operations and $464.0M in Commercial Operations, against $721.6M a year earlier.
NFS makes the fuel for all U.S. naval nuclear reactors, and BWXT fuel and reactors power the Ohio, Virginia, Seawolf, Los Angeles and Columbia-class submarines and the Nimitz and Ford-class carriers. On 1 October 2026 BWXT announced a naval fuel contract of about $189M, to be completed in August 2027.
Management says NNSA awarded BWXT $1.5B in September 2025 to industrialise the DUECE centrifuge and plan unobligated enrichment through highly enriched uranium, and $1.63B to deliver 2,000 metric tons of high-purity depleted uranium; all the equipment must be US-sourced, and a prototype centrifuge is due in 2026.
Centrus says its AC100M is the only production-ready technology for national-security enrichment (C19), and management itself questions whether unobligated enrichment is commercially viable (S08).
current state · 2026-09-29written 2026-10-05
Where the growth is coming from, business by business
Where the growth is coming from
Business
Share of revenue
Growth: last quarter
Last half-year
Last year
Government Operations
67%
+4.1%
+1.5%
+5.4%
Commercial Operations
33%
+121.1%
+107.1%
+88.4%
Whole company
100%
+26.0%
+22.2%
+21.3%
The filed split through 2026-03-31. These rates are not carried forward: the reading below says why.
How we read it: The score believes the blend, not Commercial's 107%: that rate is mostly Kinectrics and PCG, bought, and the organic commercial rate was 33% in Q2 2026.
04
The results
The numbers
Is it growing?Steady
Sales grew 23% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, about the same pace as the 18% in the year to Dec 2025.
Is it profitable?Healthy
Operating margin is 12%, down from 15% in the year to Dec 2023.
How steady is it?Uneven
Yearly sales growth has ranged from +0.0% to +18% over the last 5 years.
Does it earn good returns?Decent
Each dollar put into the business earns 12% a year after tax, about where it was (16%) in the year to Dec 2021.
Is it making cash?Solid
It turned 9.0% of sales into free cash, $317M over the last twelve months.
Is the balance sheet safe?Heavy debt
It owes $1.41B more than the cash it holds, about 2.7 years of the cash its operations bring in.
Are shares being diluted?Stable
The share count fell 2.7% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 0.9% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-05. Fiscal years end in December.
Dec 2021
Dec 2022
Dec 2023
Dec 2024
Dec 2025
12 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales
$2.12B
$2.23B
$2.50B
$2.70B
$3.20B
$3.51B
Sales growth
+0.0%
+5.1%
+12%
+8.3%
+18%
+23%
Profit
Gross margin
26%
25%
25%
24%
23%
-
Operating margin
16%
16%
15%
14%
13%
12%
Net margin
14%
11%
9.8%
10%
10%
10%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
Selling, general and admin
11%
10%
11%
12%
12%
12%
Pay in shares
0.9%
0.7%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
Capital spending
15%
8.9%
6.1%
5.7%
5.8%
5.8%
Cash
Cash from operations
$386M
$245M
$364M
$408M
$480M
$519M
Free cash flow
$75.0M
$46.4M
$212M
$255M
$295M
$317M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments
$37.7M
$39.0M
$75.8M
$74.1M
$500M
$608M
Debt
$1.19B
$1.29B
$1.21B
$1.06B
$2.02B
$2.02B
Net cash
−$1.15B
−$1.25B
−$1.13B
−$981M
−$1.52B
−$1.41B
Returns and shares
Return on capital
16%
14%
14%
14%
12%
12%
Shares (diluted)
94.5M
91.7M
91.9M
91.9M
91.9M
92.0M
What growth costs
Growing has made BWXT less profitable so far: the businesses it bought and the new government programmes earn thinner margins than naval reactors. Factories cost a steady slice of sales each year. The plan says margins recover by 2030; that is a promise, not yet a trend.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C43facthigh confidence
Operating margin fell from 16.3% in 2021 to 12.6% in 2025 as revenue grew from $2,124.1M to $3,198.4M, and adjusted EBITDA margin is guided to about 17.5% in 2026 against 18.0% in 2025, before a 20% target for 2030.
historical · FY 2021 to FY 2026 guidewritten 2026-10-05
C44facthigh confidence
2025 operating cash flow was $479.8M and capital spending $184.6M, about 5.8% of revenue; management guides capital spending of 6% to 7% of sales in 2026 and 5% to 6% to 2030.
BWXT bought A.O.T. (closed 3 January 2025), Kinectrics (closed 20 May 2025) and Precision Components Group (closed 1 July 2026). Commercial Operations revenue grew 72% in Q2 2026, 33% of it organic, and from $524.0M to $853.1M in 2025.
historical · FY 2025 and Q2 2026written 2026-10-05
C11management claimmedium confidence
At its 29 September 2026 Investor Day BWXT targeted 2030 revenue of $5.5B to $6B, adjusted EBITDA of $1.1B to $1.2B, free cash flow of $525M to $575M and over $2B of cumulative free cash flow from 2026 to 2030. It guided Government Operations to high single to low double-digit yearly revenue growth, with naval propulsion in mid single digits, and Commercial to high-teens revenue growth with its EBITDA margin rising from about 13% and EBITDA growing over 20% a year.
Government Operations adjusted EBITDA fell in Q2 2026 (C03), and over half of Commercial's Q2 growth was acquired (C13).
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
The last report (3 Aug)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
18%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
4.8%
Growth from the quarter before
against -2.9% the quarter before that
13¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales
Sales rose 18% to $901.6M in the second quarter of 2026, but only 9% without the businesses BWXT bought. The naval half grew 2%, and its profit before interest, tax and depreciation fell to $126.5M from $133.0M as new government programmes started at lower margins.
The commercial half grew 72%, mostly from acquisitions. Its new orders in the first half fell to $464.0M from $721.6M.
The company still raised its 2026 forecast, to about $3.8B of sales.
What it did to the thesisIt left the case open in both directions. The company raised its forecasts and the backlog grew, but the protected naval half earned less, and the commercial growth was mostly bought rather than won. Neither half yet shows the plan running ahead of the price.
The quarter in detail
13.4%Q3 25
2.3%Q4 25
-2.9%Q1 26
4.8%Q2 26
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $1.07 against $1.04 expected; $0.97 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C03facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue was $901.6M, up 18% (9% organic): Government Operations $601.3M, up 2%, and Commercial Operations $302.5M, up 72% (33% organic). Government Operations adjusted EBITDA fell to $126.5M from $133.0M and its operating income to $105.7M from $109.4M; Commercial adjusted EBITDA rose to $36.1M from $16.2M. Diluted EPS was $0.97 ($1.07 adjusted) and free cash flow $115.0M.
Backlog was $8,398.1M at 30 June 2026 against $6,015.2M a year earlier: Government Operations $6,797.6M (from $4,435.6M) and Commercial Operations $1,600.5M (from $1,579.6M). It included $2,256.4M of unfunded U.S. Government backlog, and BWXT expects about 55% of backlog as revenue by the end of 2027. First-half bookings were $2,435.3M in Government Operations and $464.0M in Commercial Operations, against $721.6M a year earlier.
On 3 August 2026 BWXT raised 2026 guidance to revenue of about $3.8B, adjusted EBITDA of $662M to $672M, non-GAAP EPS of $4.70 to $4.80 and free cash flow of $345M to $360M; Government Operations revenue up high single digits at about a 20.5% margin and Commercial revenue up about 45% at about 13%.
Government Operations grew 2% in Q2 2026 with lower profit (C03), so the second half must carry the high-single-digit year.
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C13facthigh confidence
BWXT bought A.O.T. (closed 3 January 2025), Kinectrics (closed 20 May 2025) and Precision Components Group (closed 1 July 2026). Commercial Operations revenue grew 72% in Q2 2026, 33% of it organic, and from $524.0M to $853.1M in 2025.
historical · FY 2025 and Q2 2026written 2026-10-05
What management did with the money
Management spent on growth: it bought Kinectrics and Precision Components Group to build the commercial half, and is selling the medical business for $750M. It plans no share buybacks in 2026, and borrowed $1.25B through bonds that convert into shares.
Insiders in 2026Q3: 5 purchases and 10 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C13facthigh confidence
BWXT bought A.O.T. (closed 3 January 2025), Kinectrics (closed 20 May 2025) and Precision Components Group (closed 1 July 2026). Commercial Operations revenue grew 72% in Q2 2026, 33% of it organic, and from $524.0M to $853.1M in 2025.
historical · FY 2025 and Q2 2026written 2026-10-05
C35facthigh confidence
BWXT agreed to sell BWXT Medical to Nordic Capital for $750M, up to $800M with contingent payments, keeping about 20%; it is about $130M of 2026 revenue, and closing is expected in 2026 or Q1 2027.
Diluted shares were 92.0M in Q2 2026 against 91.7M a year earlier. In 2025 BWXT bought back $30M of stock and paid $92.5M of dividends; it plans no buybacks in 2026.
historical · FY 2025 and Q2 2026written 2026-10-05
C23facthigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 BWXT held $608.2M of cash against $2,019.9M of long-term debt: $400M of 4.125% notes due 2028, $400M due 2029 and $1.25B of 0% convertible notes due 2030 converting at about $262.51 a share with a capped call to $396.24. Its $1,248.6M revolving credit line was undrawn.
In short. Fair. The price pays for the company's own plan through about 2028 at its usual valuation, so the shares rise only if the plan arrives faster than promised.
Share price
$139.92
close,
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
24.9
its 6-year normal 16.9
The shares are 44% below their high and close to their low for the year, while sales kept growing. That is the market paying less for the same business, not the business shrinking.
At its investor day on 29 September the company set 2030 targets of $5.5B to $6B of sales. The first test of that plan is the third-quarter report on 2 November, and management has said it may sign a first new-reactor order by year-end.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C20facthigh confidence
Over 252 sessions to 2 October 2026 the share price fell 27.9% while sales per share rose 22.3%: the multiple fell 41.1%. The close of $134.86 was 44.2% below the 52-week high of $241.82 and 2.7% above the low.
historical · 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-02written 2026-10-05
C11management claimmedium confidence
At its 29 September 2026 Investor Day BWXT targeted 2030 revenue of $5.5B to $6B, adjusted EBITDA of $1.1B to $1.2B, free cash flow of $525M to $575M and over $2B of cumulative free cash flow from 2026 to 2030. It guided Government Operations to high single to low double-digit yearly revenue growth, with naval propulsion in mid single digits, and Commercial to high-teens revenue growth with its EBITDA margin rising from about 13% and EBITDA growing over 20% a year.
Government Operations adjusted EBITDA fell in Q2 2026 (C03), and over half of Commercial's Q2 growth was acquired (C13).
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C38facthigh confidence
BWXT beat the analysts' adjusted EPS estimate in each of its last eight quarters, most recently $1.07 against $1.04 in Q2 2026; Q3 2026 results are due on 2 November 2026.
On the Q2 2026 call management said there is 'a credible opportunity to secure at least one new build nuclear equipment order before the year-end', among SMRs at Darlington, AP1000s and BWRX-300s in the US, and that US AP1000 orders wait on government financing deals.
Commercial bookings fell to $464.0M in the first half from $721.6M a year earlier (C04).
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
The betSafe, little upside
If it works
0.9×
from today's value, at the stated multiple
If it fails
keep 77%
of today's market value: the rest of the company and Commercial Operations stalled at its lowest case, less debt
How we read the multiple
A buyer today pays for the whole company, debt included, against the profit it expects this year before interest, tax and depreciation.
To be back at its usual valuation, BWXT has to earn about $815M of that profit, against about $667M this year. On the company's own 2030 plan, that arrives between 2027 and 2028.
So the price is not stretched, but it already counts the next two years of growth. A buyer gains from here only if growth comes faster than the plan.
Against its own history. Buyers still pay more for each dollar of profit than they usually have, so the fall removed the nuclear-boom excitement without making the shares cheap.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C22inferencemedium confidence
At $13.77B of company value the price is about 20.6 times the $667M midpoint of 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, against BWXT's 16.9 median in prior years. At 16.9 times the price needs about $815M, a level the 2030 plan's straight line reaches between 2027 and 2028.
derivedCompany value (C21) over the guidance midpoint (C12); $1.15B in 2030 from $667M in 2026 is about 14.6% a year, giving about $764M in 2027 and $876M in 2028 (C11).
against this
The 16.9 norm was struck when the company grew 5% to 8% a year; on the 2030 target midpoint the same company value is about 12 times (C11).
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C12management claimmedium confidence
On 3 August 2026 BWXT raised 2026 guidance to revenue of about $3.8B, adjusted EBITDA of $662M to $672M, non-GAAP EPS of $4.70 to $4.80 and free cash flow of $345M to $360M; Government Operations revenue up high single digits at about a 20.5% margin and Commercial revenue up about 45% at about 13%.
Government Operations grew 2% in Q2 2026 with lower profit (C03), so the second half must carry the high-single-digit year.
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C21facthigh confidence
At the 2 October 2026 close market value was $12.36B and company value $13.77B; trailing P/E was 34.8 against a 25.5 median in prior fiscal years, and company value was 24.9 times trailing EBITDA against 16.9. Return on invested capital was 8% against a 13% median.
At its 29 September 2026 Investor Day BWXT targeted 2030 revenue of $5.5B to $6B, adjusted EBITDA of $1.1B to $1.2B, free cash flow of $525M to $575M and over $2B of cumulative free cash flow from 2026 to 2030. It guided Government Operations to high single to low double-digit yearly revenue growth, with naval propulsion in mid single digits, and Commercial to high-teens revenue growth with its EBITDA margin rising from about 13% and EBITDA growing over 20% a year.
Government Operations adjusted EBITDA fell in Q2 2026 (C03), and over half of Commercial's Q2 growth was acquired (C13).
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
Priced against its rivals
Only Curtiss-Wright sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Framatome, Westinghouse Electric Corporation, Bechtel National, Inc., Doosan Enerbility (formerly Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction), AECON Group Inc., AtkinsRéalis.
The bet: what it pays if it works
The bet is the commercial half: power-plant parts and services, and new reactors if orders come. The naval half is the floor.
The long case in the verdict is the chief executive's, and its direction checks out, though his gas fuel figure is generous. The work it favours is what Canadian utilities already buy from BWXT.
At the investor day pace the shares are worth their price; they pay well only if new-reactor orders come early.
Commercial Operations EBITDA in two to three years
Dollars of commercial adjusted EBITDA needed
At the stated multiple
$145.00M
about 145.0M at 100% kept
0.8×
$210.00M (the big win)
about 210.0M at 100% kept
0.9×
$300.00M
about 300.0M at 100% kept
1.0×
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $983.64M of Commercial Operations EBITDA (about 983.6M dollars of commercial adjusted EBITDA); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $3.12B of Commercial Operations EBITDA (about 3.1B dollars of commercial adjusted EBITDA), at the same multiple.
Each row is Commercial Operations alone, plus the rest of the company (Government Operations) counted at about $8.79B.
The steps it has to take
●Done Kinectrics acquired
●Done Precision Components Group acquired
◐In progress Medical business sold to Nordic Capital due 2027-03
○Not started First new-build large reactor equipment order signed due 2026-12
○Not started Commercial EBITDA margin reaches the 2030 high teens due 2030-12
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet at about
≈ $12.94
91% below the price (close, )
The option
0.8×
what Commercial Operations is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C34estimatelow confidence
Commercial Operations without the medical business should earn about $145M of adjusted EBITDA in 2026, about 13% of the $1.1B of revenue management expects; at the Investor Day's 20% yearly growth that is about $210M in 2028.
derivedThe 13% segment margin guide (C12), management's $1.1B of 2026 commercial revenue without medical (S09) and its over-20% EBITDA growth target (C11).
against this
First-half commercial bookings fell 36% (C04), and the growth target assumes new-build orders not yet signed (C29).
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C29management claimlow confidence
On the Q2 2026 call management said there is 'a credible opportunity to secure at least one new build nuclear equipment order before the year-end', among SMRs at Darlington, AP1000s and BWRX-300s in the US, and that US AP1000 orders wait on government financing deals.
Commercial bookings fell to $464.0M in the first half from $721.6M a year earlier (C04).
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C11management claimmedium confidence
At its 29 September 2026 Investor Day BWXT targeted 2030 revenue of $5.5B to $6B, adjusted EBITDA of $1.1B to $1.2B, free cash flow of $525M to $575M and over $2B of cumulative free cash flow from 2026 to 2030. It guided Government Operations to high single to low double-digit yearly revenue growth, with naval propulsion in mid single digits, and Commercial to high-teens revenue growth with its EBITDA margin rising from about 13% and EBITDA growing over 20% a year.
Government Operations adjusted EBITDA fell in Q2 2026 (C03), and over half of Commercial's Q2 growth was acquired (C13).
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C33estimatemedium confidence
Government Operations should earn about $520M of adjusted EBITDA in 2026: 2025's $2,350.1M of revenue grown about 8% at the guided 20.5% margin.
derived2025 segment revenue (C02) and the 2026 segment guide (C12).
against this
Government Operations grew 2% in Q2 2026 and its adjusted EBITDA fell (C03).
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
C50management claimmedium confidence
At the 29 September 2026 Investor Day the chief executive argued that nuclear is a high fixed cost, low running cost asset and gas the reverse: fuel for a gigawatt of gas costs about $400M a year against about $60M for nuclear, gas turbines now cost about $3.5B a gigawatt with five or six years' delivery, about 600 large reactors were built in the 1970s to 1990s and many still run, and doubling a plant's life costs '30 cents on the dollar or whatever that is'.
At US gas prices and heat rates the fuel gap is about four times, not nearly seven: about $219M against $50M a gigawatt-year (C51).
IAEA counts 446 reactors connected to the grid from 1970 to 1999, not about 600, and never more than 33 in a year where he said 15 or 20 a month (C53).
current state · 2026-09-29written 2026-10-05
C55inferencemedium confidence
The investor-day argument is a case for the commercial third, not the naval two thirds: life extension is the refurbishment work Canadian utilities already pay BWXT for, and long turbine queues make running old reactors longer the cheaper option. It supports demand for that work for years, but it is already inside the high-teens commercial plan the price is measured against.
derivedThe commercial revenue mix and its Canadian customers (C27), the economics as stated (C50) and checked (C51, C52, C54), and the plan the bet is struck on (C11, C34).
against this
First-half commercial bookings fell and the commercial backlog was flat, so the tailwind has not yet shown up in orders (C04).
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
Where we disagree with the market
The market believes
A nuclear-boom stock: small reactors, new power plants and AI power demand, now cheaper after a 44% fall.
We believe
Two thirds of it is a naval monopoly growing about 5% a year, and that half's profit fell last quarter.
The boom story is mostly priced on businesses that earn little today: Army microreactors pay only on milestones into the 2030s, and new power-plant orders are not signed. What pays the bills is the Navy, and it grows at the pace of the shipyards.
Against us: analysts have turned more positive this year, and the company beat estimates in each of the last eight quarters.
What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
78%
of 18, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
69%
of 16, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C26facthigh confidence
On 1 October 2026 77.8% of 18 analysts were positive, against 58.3% of 12 on 1 February; the snapshot reads 13 buy, 5 hold and 1 sell. Short interest was 3.5% of float at the 15 September settlement, up 7.9%.
Over 252 sessions to 2 October 2026 the share price fell 27.9% while sales per share rose 22.3%: the multiple fell 41.1%. The close of $134.86 was 44.2% below the 52-week high of $241.82 and 2.7% above the low.
historical · 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-02written 2026-10-05
C03facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue was $901.6M, up 18% (9% organic): Government Operations $601.3M, up 2%, and Commercial Operations $302.5M, up 72% (33% organic). Government Operations adjusted EBITDA fell to $126.5M from $133.0M and its operating income to $105.7M from $109.4M; Commercial adjusted EBITDA rose to $36.1M from $16.2M. Diluted EPS was $0.97 ($1.07 adjusted) and free cash flow $115.0M.
The naval half is a structural monopoly on volume but not on price: only BWXT's two plants may make the fuel, designs are classified, and the Navy has no other supplier, yet contracts bill allowable cost plus fee, so the shelter shows up as steady orders at about a 21% margin before depreciation.
derivedThe licences (C06), sole supply to every class (C07), the 10-K on limited competition and cost-based pricing (C08), and Q2 2026 segment margin (C03).
against this
Naval Reactors owns the designs, so the customer controls the technology and could in principle license a second maker; none is proposed (S01).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-05
C14facthigh confidence
On 31 August 2026 the Army said its Janus programme selected five vendors to own, build and run microreactors on bases, with up to $2.2B across FY2027 to FY2031 paid only on technical milestones, contractor-owned reactors and significant vendor investment. BWXT's 20 MWe BANR will go to Fort Campbell, targeting groundbreaking in late 2028 and operation in the early 2030s; Tata Chemicals signed a letter of intent for up to eight units.
One buyer The US government is 68% of sales. A budget fight or a slower shipbuilding plan hits most of the company at once.
Shipyards set the pace BWXT cannot build reactors faster than the yards take them, and the yards have missed the two-a-year goal for over a decade.
Commercial orders are contested Doosan, Framatome and Curtiss-Wright sell the same parts, so a new-build boom need not mean BWXT orders.
Naval margins slipping Naval profit fell in the June quarter while new programmes ramped; if that continues, the steady half stops being steady.
New programmes are long dated Microreactors and enrichment pay on milestones over years and may never earn a commercial return.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C05facthigh confidence
Sales to the U.S. Government were $2,200.0M of 2025's $3,198.4M revenue, about 68%, against about 76% in 2024 and 75% in 2023. The U.S. Government was 91% of Government Operations revenue, and large utilities were 63% of Commercial Operations revenue.
CRS reports the Navy bought two Virginia-class submarines a year from FY2011 to FY2024 and one in FY2025, at about $5.0B each, and requested two for FY2026. Actual production has never reached 2.0 boats a year and since 2022 has been about 1.1 to 1.2; the goal is 2.0 and then 2.33 with AUKUS.
The commercial half sells into a contested market: Doosan built every US AP1000 component set, Framatome and Westinghouse sell the same parts and services, and Curtiss-Wright sells AP1000 pumps, so being North America's only heavy maker wins no order by itself.
derivedDoosan's AP1000 record (C15), the 10-K's named rivals and price competition (C08), and Curtiss-Wright's 10-K (C16).
against this
BWXT says reactor vendors such as Westinghouse and GE Vernova need very large components and it is adding about 40% to its heavy-component bay (S09).
current state · 2026-10-05written 2026-10-05
C03facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue was $901.6M, up 18% (9% organic): Government Operations $601.3M, up 2%, and Commercial Operations $302.5M, up 72% (33% organic). Government Operations adjusted EBITDA fell to $126.5M from $133.0M and its operating income to $105.7M from $109.4M; Commercial adjusted EBITDA rose to $36.1M from $16.2M. Diluted EPS was $0.97 ($1.07 adjusted) and free cash flow $115.0M.
At 30 June 2026 BWXT held $608.2M of cash against $2,019.9M of long-term debt: $400M of 4.125% notes due 2028, $400M due 2029 and $1.25B of 0% convertible notes due 2030 converting at about $262.51 a share with a capped call to $396.24. Its $1,248.6M revolving credit line was undrawn.
On 31 August 2026 the Army said its Janus programme selected five vendors to own, build and run microreactors on bases, with up to $2.2B across FY2027 to FY2031 paid only on technical milestones, contractor-owned reactors and significant vendor investment. BWXT's 20 MWe BANR will go to Fort Campbell, targeting groundbreaking in late 2028 and operation in the early 2030s; Tata Chemicals signed a letter of intent for up to eight units.
What the Navy actually pays BWXT for one reactor and its core: only whole-boat costs and segment totals are public.
Why naval profit fell while its backlog rose by half: the company has named the new programmes, not given the arithmetic.
Whether any new US or Canadian reactor order goes to BWXT rather than Doosan or Framatome.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C31inferencemedium confidence
The naval half is a structural monopoly on volume but not on price: only BWXT's two plants may make the fuel, designs are classified, and the Navy has no other supplier, yet contracts bill allowable cost plus fee, so the shelter shows up as steady orders at about a 21% margin before depreciation.
derivedThe licences (C06), sole supply to every class (C07), the 10-K on limited competition and cost-based pricing (C08), and Q2 2026 segment margin (C03).
against this
Naval Reactors owns the designs, so the customer controls the technology and could in principle license a second maker; none is proposed (S01).
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-05
C03facthigh confidence
In Q2 2026 revenue was $901.6M, up 18% (9% organic): Government Operations $601.3M, up 2%, and Commercial Operations $302.5M, up 72% (33% organic). Government Operations adjusted EBITDA fell to $126.5M from $133.0M and its operating income to $105.7M from $109.4M; Commercial adjusted EBITDA rose to $36.1M from $16.2M. Diluted EPS was $0.97 ($1.07 adjusted) and free cash flow $115.0M.
On the Q2 2026 call management said there is 'a credible opportunity to secure at least one new build nuclear equipment order before the year-end', among SMRs at Darlington, AP1000s and BWRX-300s in the US, and that US AP1000 orders wait on government financing deals.
Commercial bookings fell to $464.0M in the first half from $721.6M a year earlier (C04).
forwardwritten 2026-10-05
What would change our view
Neutral→AttractiveA cheaper price on an unchanged plan
It needs:
○Buyers pay only the company's usual price for each dollar of this year's expected profit before interest, tax and depreciation, about a fifth below today.about ≈$111.04 today, 21% below the last close
Neutral→AttractiveThe plan arrives faster than the price needs
It needs all of:
○The naval half grows its profit at least 8% from a year earlier in the fourth quarter of 2026.checked at the next results, due by 2 Nov
○BWXT signs an equipment order for a new large reactor, as management expects by year-end.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
A second company is licensed to make naval reactor fuel or cores.
Congress funds fewer than two Virginia-class submarines a year again, or slows the Columbia class.
What is coming
2 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether Government Operations profit grows again, commercial bookings recover, and a new-build order is signed.
Every dated event ahead
2 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether Government Operations profit grows again, commercial bookings recover, and a new-build order is signed.
December 2026 First new-build reactor equipment order: Whether the commercial plan's high-teens growth has an order behind it, and whether BWXT or Doosan wins it.
February 2027 Q4 2026 results and the 2026 10-K: 2026 against the $667M guide, 2027 guidance, and Government Operations' full-year growth.
March 2027 Medical sale closes: About $750M of cash that cuts net debt roughly in half, and the perimeter the 2027 guide is struck on.
December 2028 Janus groundbreaking at Fort Campbell: Whether BANR moves from selection to construction on the Army's milestone payments.
Since we wrote this
Written
5 Oct
Price the thesis read
$134.86
2 Oct
Latest close
$139.92
close, · +3.8% since
13 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Priced for success to Safe, little upsideRe-priced at the 12 October close.
10 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Safe, little upside to Priced for successRe-priced at the 9 October close.
8 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Priced for success to Safe, little upsideRe-priced at the 7 October close.
7 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Safe, little upside to Priced for successRe-priced at the 6 October close.
6 OctNewsBWXT's small reactor is picked for a Canadian transportable nuclear plant project. View heldBANR microreactor chosen for a Canadian transportable nuclear plant project.
5 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten a week after the Investor Day and four weeks before Q3 2026 results, with the shares 44% below their high.
5 OctThesis reviewOwner asked: the investor-day case for nuclear over gasThe owner asked why the chief executive's argument on fuel cost, turbine waits and life extension was missing; the first pass read the Investor Day for its targets only.
Also checked 3 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 24
Where this came from
Sources - 24
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
the two Category I licensees and the new Category II TRISO applications
Two Category I fuel fabrication plants are currently licensed by the NRC: Nuclear Fuel Services (NFS) in Erwin, Tennessee and the BWXT Nuclear Operations Group plant in Lynchburg, Virginia.
Doosan's steam generators and reactor vessels for Vogtle 3 and 4 and V.C. Summer 2 and 3
Doosan has been selected to supply major equipment to all four units of US AP1000s
backsC15
S13primarytranscript2026-08-06
Centrus Energy Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)Centrus Energy
a rival's claim on national-security enrichment
Centrus is the only viable production-ready technology that can meet national security needs
backsC19
S14secondaryvendor data2026-10-05
Research pack (FMP market data, FINRA, SEC filed figures), frozen as research-pack.json
price, the price decomposition, multiples against their history, earnings history, the analyst series, short interest, insider base rate and the five-year margin series
grid connections by year (446 from 1970 to 1999, at most 33 in a year) and the age of the operating fleet
About 67% of global operational reactor capacity (264.3 GW(e), 298 reactors) has been in operation for over 30 years, 35% (136.4 GW(e), 168 reactors) of the total installed capacity has been in operation for over 40 years.
the C$12.8B refurbishment of Darlington's four 878-MWe units, extending their lives by 30 years, and the C$20.9B envelope for four 300-MWe BWRX-300s at the same site
OPG is working with a C$20.9 billion project envelope and a similar strategy for the DNNP.