MaxLinear
A California chip designer whose chips go into home internet boxes, Wi-Fi routers and, since 2025, the optical links between AI servers.
Our viewUnattractive Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 ↑
Revenue up 29.7% in 2025, 55% in Q2 2026 and 72% in Q3, all organic, but the record is under two years old.
Business quality3/4 ↑
Design wins on power give real share gains, but the position is one generation old, unconfirmed from outside, and each new speed is competed again.
Financial position2/4 ↑
Cash of $81.1M is below Silicon Motion's $160M claim, $40M of the revolver is drawn, and the $125M term loan falls due in June 2028.
Execution record3/4 ↑
The optical forecast rose at every print, from about $100M to $250M-$270M, and Q3 landed in its guide, but Rushmore slipped into 2027.
Per share capture2/4 →
Stock pay is 15.6% of revenue and diluted shares rose from 73.1M in 2020 to 97.3M; one $20M buyback offsets little.
Potential2/4 →
A large, fast market, but the share rests on purchase orders, Rushmore winning 1.6T, and DSPs surviving linear-drive optics.
Risk profile2/4 →
An undecided arbitration claim larger than the cash resolves in one ruling; three-quarters of products ship to Hong Kong, China and Vietnam.
Valuation1/4 ↓
The price needs about $1.8B of revenue at a 30% GAAP margin: 1.6 times the 2022 record at nearly twice its margin.
Evidence quality2/4 →
The statements are filed, but optical revenue, the power edge, the three-player claim and Rushmore's timing are management's word, unconfirmed outside.
The bet · 2-3 years
Speculation2.2×
If it works 2.2× · if it fails you keep about 30%.
The Verdict
We rate MaxLinear unattractive. Its new optical chips are winning real orders at AI data centres, and the September quarter beat its forecast, but the other half of the company, broadband and Wi-Fi, is cyclical and fell by two-thirds two years ago, so the business is mixed. The price is priced for perfection: it needs sales about 1.6 times the company's best year, at nearly twice that year's profit margin. As a bet it is priced for success: about one and a half times the money if optical keeps growing with its market, under a quarter kept if it stalls. The next chip generation has already slipped once.
The long caseAI data centres keep adding faster optical links, and if MaxLinear's lower-power DSPs keep winning sockets at each new speed, its optical sales keep compounding.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C39facthigh confidence
Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $218.1M, up 72% from $126.5M a year earlier and 29% from $168.8M in Q2, inside the $210M-$220M guide. Infrastructure was $124.9M, up 210% and 57% of revenue; Broadband $53.3M, down 8%; Connectivity $24.7M; Industrial and multi-market $15.1M. GAAP gross margin was 58.7% (non-GAAP 60.0%), GAAP operating expenses $97.8M and the GAAP operating margin 13.9%, against 29.5% non-GAAP; GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.30 against $0.62 non-GAAP. No customer was 10% of Q3 revenue; one was 10% and the ten largest 56% of nine-month revenue. Operating cash flow was negative $13.6M in the quarter and negative $17.7M in nine months, after $137.6M of working capital absorbed by wafer prepayments and inventory.
sourceThird quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- Infrastructure also holds wireless backhaul and analog chips, so its 210% is not all optical; the filing gives no optical split (C01).
- The GAAP operating profit is about $30M on $218.1M of revenue; stock pay, performance equity and acquisition costs of about $34M make up the gap to the non-GAAP figure, and nine-month operating cash flow is negative.
C04facthigh confidence
Revenue was $1,120.3M in 2022 with GAAP operating income of $180.2M, a 16.1% margin, the company's record on both. It then fell to $693.3M in 2023 and $360.5M in 2024, with GAAP operating losses of $38.2M and $223.4M, and GAAP operating income has been negative in every year since.
C06management claimmedium confidence
Management has raised its 2026 optical data-centre revenue forecast four times: about $100M to $130M for Keystone in January, $150M to $170M in April, $210M to $230M in July and $250M to $270M on the 22 October call, against a run rate it says expands further into 2027.
sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimaryFirst quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimarySecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- No figure for optical revenue is filed: the 10-Q reports only the Infrastructure category, which also holds wireless backhaul and analog chips.
- The shares fell 21.5% the day after the July raise, which suggests the market had already priced more.
- 2026-10-22editedFourth raise read on the 22 October call (S26): the range moved from $210M-$230M to $250M-$270M.
C11facthigh confidence
Rushmore's timing has moved twice: on the January call management expected its production revenue ramp to start at the end of 2026; on the July call it expected revenue to start in 2027, with ramps in the second half of that year; on the 22 October call it said an initial design win would start shipping in the first half of 2027.
sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimarySecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
- 2026-10-22editedThird dating added from the 22 October call (S26): the first shipments are now expected earlier than July's date but later than January's.
C21estimatemedium confidence
For a 6% after-tax yield at 21% tax, the $6.98B enterprise value needs about $530M of GAAP operating profit. At a 30% operating margin that is about $1.8B of revenue: about 1.6 times the 2022 record of $1.12B, at nearly twice that year's 16.1% margin, and about 1.4 times the vendor panel's 2029 estimate. Q3's GAAP operating margin was 13.9%.
derived$6.98B (C20) times 6%, divided by 0.79; revenue at a 30% margin, the bottom of management's non-GAAP target range applied to GAAP (C13); the 2022 record from C04; the 2029 estimate of $1.25B from C23, struck before this print; Q3 margin from C39.
against this
- A 6% yield is a judgement; at 5% the profit needed falls to about $442M, or $1.5B of revenue at 30%.
- Measured on management's non-GAAP basis, which leaves out stock pay, a 35% margin would need about $1.5B of revenue.
- The filed rivals trade at a median of about 24 times sales, so the market prices the whole group this way (S16).
- 2026-10-22editedRe-struck on the C20 enterprise value of $6.98B: the revenue the price needs falls from about $2.4B to about $1.8B because the price fell 28%, not because the business earned more.
C24factmedium confidence
LightCounting, an industry research firm, says 800G PAM4 chipset shipments nearly tripled in 2025 and expects 1.6T chipset sales above $2 billion in 2026, but expects PAM4 chipset sales growth to moderate in 2027 to 2031 as linear-drive optics, LPO and CPO, cut DSP sales.
C05facthigh confidence
Broadband revenue fell from $493.2M in 2022 to $116.8M in 2024, recovered to $204.4M in 2025 and was down 5.6% in Q2 2026. Connectivity fell from $303.9M to $55.8M over the same two years. Infrastructure held between $113.9M and $177.1M through the downturn.
The company
MaxLinear designs chips and has them made by TSMC and UMC. Its fastest-growing chip, Keystone, sits inside the plug-in optical modules that link servers in AI data centres: it cleans up the fast electrical signal before a laser turns it into light.
Module makers and the cloud companies behind them buy it, management says, because it uses almost 40% less power than rival chips from Broadcom and Marvell. No outside source confirms that yet. The rest of the company sells chips for internet boxes, Wi-Fi routers and industrial equipment.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C01facthigh confidence
MaxLinear is a fabless chip designer: it designs radio, analog, mixed-signal and signal-processing chips and has TSMC and UMC make them. It reports revenue in four categories: Infrastructure (optical data-centre chips, wireless backhaul, high-performance analog), Broadband (cable, fibre and DSL gateway chips), Connectivity (Wi-Fi and Ethernet) and Industrial and multi-market.
C07management claimmedium confidence
Management describes Keystone as a 5-nanometer PAM4 DSP for 400G and 800G optical modules, ramping at major cloud operators in the US and Asia with almost 40% lower power than the competition, and says only three suppliers ship PAM4 DSPs in volume, MaxLinear among them; Broadcom and Marvell are the other two it names.
sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- Credo, which MaxLinear's own 10-K names as a competitor, also sells optical DSPs to the same module makers (S21).
- LightCounting's public summaries and Cignal AI's vendor list do not name MaxLinear; no source outside the company states its share or its power advantage (C33).
C36facthigh confidence
MaxLinear had 1,115 employees at the end of 2025, 786 of them in research and development.
C06management claimmedium confidence
Management has raised its 2026 optical data-centre revenue forecast four times: about $100M to $130M for Keystone in January, $150M to $170M in April, $210M to $230M in July and $250M to $270M on the 22 October call, against a run rate it says expands further into 2027.
sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimaryFirst quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimarySecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- No figure for optical revenue is filed: the 10-Q reports only the Infrastructure category, which also holds wireless backhaul and analog chips.
- The shares fell 21.5% the day after the July raise, which suggests the market had already priced more.
- 2026-10-22editedFourth raise read on the 22 October call (S26): the range moved from $210M-$230M to $250M-$270M.
C33facthigh confidence
No source outside the company confirms MaxLinear's optical share: Credo's and Marvell's annual reports do not name it among their competitors, LightCounting's and Cignal AI's public summaries do not mention it, and an EDGAR full-text search found no other filer describing its PAM4 DSPs.
How it makes money
MaxLinear sells chips one purchase order at a time, mostly to equipment and module makers, with nearly half going through distributors. In Q2 2026 half of sales came from Infrastructure, the optical chips plus radio and analog parts, and half from broadband, Wi-Fi and industrial chips.
No customer signs a long contract. What keeps money coming is that a chip, once designed into a product, usually stays for that product's life, two to seven years.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C03facthigh confidence
Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $168.8M, up 55% on a year earlier and 23% on the first quarter. Infrastructure was $85.0M, up 145% and now half of revenue; Broadband $44.9M, down 6%; Connectivity $24.0M, up 16%; Industrial and multi-market $15.0M, up 158%. GAAP gross margin was 57.8% and the GAAP operating loss $4.2M; non-GAAP operating income was $37.6M, 22.3% of revenue.
C08facthigh confidence
No customer was 10% of Q3 2026 revenue and one was 10% of the first nine months; the ten largest customers were 56% of nine-month revenue. A year earlier Customer A was 18% of Q3 and 17% of nine months and Customer B 11% and 13%. In 2025 two customers were 28% of revenue and the top ten 65%. Distributors handled 48% of Q3 revenue against 36% a year earlier.
sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary
- 2026-10-22editedRe-sourced to the Q3 2026 10-Q (S24): concentration eased further; the Q2 geography split was dropped as no longer current.
C29facthigh confidence
The 10-K says customers buy on purchase orders with no long-term commitments, have cancelled or deferred orders before, and that forecasts have been materially wrong; it also says a chip designed into a customer's product usually stays for that product's life, 24 to 60 months in broadband and 24 to 84 months or more in infrastructure.
C09management claimmedium confidence
The finance chief says a handful of customers will drive most optical volume over the next six quarters, and that lead times of about 28 weeks give visibility from backlog and bookings.
sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
The 10-K says customers buy on purchase orders, have cancelled or deferred them before, and that forecasts have been materially wrong (C29).
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (Q2 2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure | 50.4% | Keystone optical DSPs for data-centre modules, plus wireless backhaul and high-performance analog chips, sold to module makers and equipment makers. |
| Broadband | 26.6% | Chips for cable, fibre and DSL gateways, sold to box makers serving cable and telecom operators. |
| Connectivity | 14.2% | Wi-Fi and Ethernet chips for routers, gateways and switches. |
| Industrial and multi-market | 8.9% | Interface, power and storage-acceleration chips for industrial and other equipment, often through distributors. |
Who runs it
Kishore Seendripu co-founded MaxLinear in 2003 and has run it since. Steven Litchfield has been finance chief since 2018. In April the chief executive owned 6.0% and insiders 7.7% together. Long-term pay rides on sales and an adjusted profit measure, not on profit after stock pay or per share.
In August the chief executive sold about $50M of stock, about a ninth of his stake, outside any pre-arranged plan.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C35facthigh confidence
Kishore Seendripu co-founded MaxLinear and has been its chairman, president and chief executive since it began in September 2003; Steven Litchfield has been finance chief and chief strategy officer since July 2018, after a similar role at Microsemi.
C19facthigh confidence
The April 2026 proxy shows the chief executive owning 6.0% and directors and officers 7.7%, with BlackRock at 13.4% and Vanguard at 10.2%. Long-term awards are half performance units paying on revenue, non-GAAP operating income and revenue growth against the Russell 3000, and half time-vested units; his 2025 salary was $700,000 and his bonus $1.04M.
C18facthigh confidence
The founder and chief executive, Kishore Seendripu, sold 591,454 shares on 14 and 17 August 2026 at $83.31 to $88.16, about $50M and about a ninth of the 5.43M shares the April proxy gave him; none of the sales was under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. Across the year, 29 of 32 open-market insider sales were discretionary, and no insider bought.
sourceForms 4 filed for Kishore Seendripu, 14 and 17 August 2026,…primaryDefinitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) for the 2026 annual…primary
against this
He still held most of his stake, and a founder selling after a sixfold rise may be diversifying rather than signalling.
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
Once a module maker builds Keystone into a product and its cloud customer approves it, switching chips means redesigning and re-testing, so the chip tends to stay for years. That is MaxLinear's hold on its customers.
It is a hold on one generation. Each faster speed is a new design contest, so winning 800G links does not win 1.6T. And outside analysts do not name MaxLinear at all, so its share and its power advantage rest on management's word.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C29facthigh confidence
The 10-K says customers buy on purchase orders with no long-term commitments, have cancelled or deferred orders before, and that forecasts have been materially wrong; it also says a chip designed into a customer's product usually stays for that product's life, 24 to 60 months in broadband and 24 to 84 months or more in infrastructure.
C30inferencemedium confidence
MaxLinear's optical position is a design-in won on power: once a module maker qualifies Keystone it tends to stay for that module's life, but each new speed is competed again, so Keystone's 800G wins do not carry over to 1.6T unless Rushmore wins its own sockets.
derivedThe design-in life cycle and purchase-order terms (C29), the power claim (C07), Rushmore needing new qualifications (C10) and its slipped timing (C11).
against this
- Management says Keystone's success is the foundation for multigenerational engagements, and a supplier already qualified at a cloud operator may be first in line for the next generation (S07).
- Keystone itself began ramping only in 2025 and won share against two incumbents, so the company has shown it can win a generation.
C07management claimmedium confidence
Management describes Keystone as a 5-nanometer PAM4 DSP for 400G and 800G optical modules, ramping at major cloud operators in the US and Asia with almost 40% lower power than the competition, and says only three suppliers ship PAM4 DSPs in volume, MaxLinear among them; Broadcom and Marvell are the other two it names.
sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- Credo, which MaxLinear's own 10-K names as a competitor, also sells optical DSPs to the same module makers (S21).
- LightCounting's public summaries and Cignal AI's vendor list do not name MaxLinear; no source outside the company states its share or its power advantage (C33).
C24factmedium confidence
LightCounting, an industry research firm, says 800G PAM4 chipset shipments nearly tripled in 2025 and expects 1.6T chipset sales above $2 billion in 2026, but expects PAM4 chipset sales growth to moderate in 2027 to 2031 as linear-drive optics, LPO and CPO, cut DSP sales.
C33facthigh confidence
No source outside the company confirms MaxLinear's optical share: Credo's and Marvell's annual reports do not name it among their competitors, LightCounting's and Cignal AI's public summaries do not mention it, and an EDGAR full-text search found no other filer describing its PAM4 DSPs.
The threat
In optical chips MaxLinear fights Broadcom and Marvell, the incumbents, and Credo. The larger threat is a design that drops this chip altogether: NVIDIA already sells switches with the optics built in, and LightCounting, an industry research firm, expects such designs to slow sales of chips like Keystone from 2027. In broadband, Broadcom, Realtek and MediaTek sell the same kinds of chips.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C28facthigh confidence
MaxLinear's 10-K names thirteen merchant chip competitors, among them Broadcom, Marvell, Credo, MACOM, Semtech, Qualcomm, Realtek and MediaTek, and adds internal or vertically integrated engineering groups within its own customers.
C07management claimmedium confidence
Management describes Keystone as a 5-nanometer PAM4 DSP for 400G and 800G optical modules, ramping at major cloud operators in the US and Asia with almost 40% lower power than the competition, and says only three suppliers ship PAM4 DSPs in volume, MaxLinear among them; Broadcom and Marvell are the other two it names.
sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- Credo, which MaxLinear's own 10-K names as a competitor, also sells optical DSPs to the same module makers (S21).
- LightCounting's public summaries and Cignal AI's vendor list do not name MaxLinear; no source outside the company states its share or its power advantage (C33).
C27factmedium confidence
NVIDIA sells switches with the optics built into the switch package, which it says replace pluggable transceivers with five times better power efficiency; it names Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, CoreWeave and Lambda as first adopters and says its Ethernet version has ramped to full production.
C24factmedium confidence
LightCounting, an industry research firm, says 800G PAM4 chipset shipments nearly tripled in 2025 and expects 1.6T chipset sales above $2 billion in 2026, but expects PAM4 chipset sales growth to moderate in 2027 to 2031 as linear-drive optics, LPO and CPO, cut DSP sales.
C31inferencemedium confidence
Linear-drive and co-packaged optics remove the DSP from part of the market MaxLinear sells into, so the optical prize may grow more slowly than the module count; MaxLinear's answer is to sell amplifier chips that work without a DSP.
derivedLightCounting's view that LPO and CPO cut DSP sales (C24), NVIDIA's switches that replace the pluggable module (C27), Cignal's imminent CPO deployments (C26) and management's Washington amplifier for designs without a DSP (C10).
against this
- Cignal says nearly all 1.6T modules still ship in configurations that use a DSP, and that 800G demand shows no sign of slowing (C26).
- LightCounting expects fully retimed transceivers, the kind that use a DSP, to contribute the largest dollar growth over its forecast (S17).
C05facthigh confidence
Broadband revenue fell from $493.2M in 2022 to $116.8M in 2024, recovered to $204.4M in 2025 and was down 5.6% in Q2 2026. Connectivity fell from $303.9M to $55.8M over the same two years. Infrastructure held between $113.9M and $177.1M through the downturn.
The rivals: AVGO, AVGO, MRVL, CRDO, NVDA, SMTC, MTSI, QCOM, SWKS, TXN, ADI, MCHP, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | Where it competes | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | Broadcom PAM4 DSPsPriced against it: Shown, not counted | Infrastructure | On sale | Shown, not counted |
| Broadcom broadband and Wi-Fi chips | Broadband, Wi-Fi and industrial | On sale | ||
| MRVL | Marvell PAM4 DSPsPriced against it: Yes | Infrastructure | On sale | Yes |
| CRDO | Credo optical DSPsPriced against it: Yes | Infrastructure | On sale | Yes |
| NVDA | NVIDIA co-packaged optics and linear-drive modulesPriced against it: Small part of it | Infrastructure | On sale | Small part of it |
| Realtek and MediaTekPriced against it: Listed abroad | Broadband, Wi-Fi and industrial | On sale | Listed abroad | |
| SMTC | SemtechPriced against it: Yes | - | On sale | Yes |
| MTSI | MACOM Technology Solutions HoldingsPriced against it: Yes | - | On sale | Yes |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM IncorporatedPriced against it: One segment only | - | On sale | One segment only |
| SWKS | Skyworks SolutionsPriced against it: One segment only | - | On sale | One segment only |
| TXN | Texas Instruments IncorporatedPriced against it: One segment only | - | On sale | One segment only |
| ADI | Analog DevicesPriced against it: One segment only | - | On sale | One segment only |
| MCHP | Microchip TechnologyPriced against it: One segment only | - | On sale | One segment only |
How big it could get
How big this could get
Cignal AI, an industry research firm, counted almost 20 million fast optical modules shipped in Q1 2026 alone, and most need a chip like Keystone. LightCounting puts 2026 sales of chips for the newest 1.6T modules above $2B.
Against that, MaxLinear expects $210M-$230M of optical sales this year, at what management's own figures suggest is about $20-$25 a chip. The market is large; MaxLinear's slice of it is not public.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C26factmedium confidence
Cignal AI, a second research firm, counts almost 20M high-speed datacom modules shipped in Q1 2026, up 145% on a year earlier; it expects 800G shipments to more than double in 2026 and 1.6T to pass 10M units, nearly all in silicon-photonics configurations, and says co-packaged optics deployments are imminent with Nvidia, Broadcom and TSMC.
C24factmedium confidence
LightCounting, an industry research firm, says 800G PAM4 chipset shipments nearly tripled in 2025 and expects 1.6T chipset sales above $2 billion in 2026, but expects PAM4 chipset sales growth to moderate in 2027 to 2031 as linear-drive optics, LPO and CPO, cut DSP sales.
C32estimatelow confidence
Keystone's forecast implies roughly $20 to $25 a unit: in January management put 2026 at $100M to $130M of revenue and 4M to 6M units, and an analyst on the call did the same arithmetic.
against this
- The chief executive rejected the suggestion that MaxLinear wins by pricing low, saying performance decides (S05).
- Units and revenue were given separately and may not describe the same mix of 400G and 800G parts.
C06management claimmedium confidence
Management has raised its 2026 optical data-centre revenue forecast four times: about $100M to $130M for Keystone in January, $150M to $170M in April, $210M to $230M in July and $250M to $270M on the 22 October call, against a run rate it says expands further into 2027.
sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimaryFirst quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimarySecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- No figure for optical revenue is filed: the 10-Q reports only the Infrastructure category, which also holds wireless backhaul and analog chips.
- The shares fell 21.5% the day after the July raise, which suggests the market had already priced more.
- 2026-10-22editedFourth raise read on the 22 October call (S26): the range moved from $210M-$230M to $250M-$270M.
Who has signed
Nobody has signed a long contract. MaxLinear has design wins at cloud companies in the US and Asia, through module makers, and about 28 weeks of orders ahead. Orders can be cancelled, and management says a handful of customers will drive most of the volume.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C07management claimmedium confidence
Management describes Keystone as a 5-nanometer PAM4 DSP for 400G and 800G optical modules, ramping at major cloud operators in the US and Asia with almost 40% lower power than the competition, and says only three suppliers ship PAM4 DSPs in volume, MaxLinear among them; Broadcom and Marvell are the other two it names.
sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- Credo, which MaxLinear's own 10-K names as a competitor, also sells optical DSPs to the same module makers (S21).
- LightCounting's public summaries and Cignal AI's vendor list do not name MaxLinear; no source outside the company states its share or its power advantage (C33).
C09management claimmedium confidence
The finance chief says a handful of customers will drive most optical volume over the next six quarters, and that lead times of about 28 weeks give visibility from backlog and bookings.
sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
The 10-K says customers buy on purchase orders, have cancelled or deferred them before, and that forecasts have been materially wrong (C29).
C29facthigh confidence
The 10-K says customers buy on purchase orders with no long-term commitments, have cancelled or deferred orders before, and that forecasts have been materially wrong; it also says a chip designed into a customer's product usually stays for that product's life, 24 to 60 months in broadband and 24 to 84 months or more in infrastructure.
C10management claimlow confidence
Management expects Rushmore, its 1.6T PAM4 DSP, to start producing revenue in 2027: on the 22 October call the chief executive said an initial design win will start shipping in the first half, with the second half set up from it, and a ramp at one or two customers later in the year; its Washington amplifier and Annapurna cable and retimer chips to bring initial revenue in 2027 and a larger ramp in 2028; and a fibre design win at a cloud operator, qualified, to deploy in 2027.
sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- In January the same company expected Rushmore production revenue to start at the end of 2026 (C11).
- Nearly all 1.6T optics ship today in one configuration, and Broadcom and Marvell already supply the leading module makers (C26).
- 2026-10-22editedThe 22 October call (S26) puts the first Rushmore shipments in the first half of 2027, a quarter or two earlier than July's second-half ramp; a management claim, not yet filed.
Where the growth is coming from, business by business
Where the growth is coming from
| Business | Share of revenue | Growth: last quarter | Last half-year | Last year | Share in 3 years at its half-year rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure | 57% | +209.6% | +179.7% | +151.1% | 96% |
| Broadband, Wi-Fi and industrial | 43% | +8.2% | +10.5% | +17.3% | 4% |
| Whole company | 100% | +72.4% | +64.4% | +57.8% | 100% |
On the filed split through 2026-09-30, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 107% next year and 162% in year 3, against 50.5% over the last twelve months. Infrastructure carries the case: it grows 180% against 10% for the rest, and would be 96% of revenue by then. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.
How we read it: The score believes the business carrying the case: Infrastructure's 145% rests on Keystone ramps at a handful of customers, with Broadband down 6%. Under two years of record, so 3 either way.
The results
The numbers
Is it growing?Fast
Sales grew 56% over the twelve months to Sep 2026, faster than the 30% in the year to Dec 2025.
Is it profitable?Losing
Operating margin is −0.9%, up from −5.5% in the year to Dec 2023.
Does growth pay off?Pays off
Running costs take 59¢ of each sales dollar, up from 48¢ in the year to Dec 2021.
Does it earn good returns?Poor
Shareholders' money lost 5.9% a year, down from 9.5% in the year to Dec 2021.
How long can it keep going?Long runway
It used $20.6M of cash over the last twelve months, so the $81.1M it holds lasts about 3.9 years at that pace.
Is the balance sheet safe?Strained
It owes $83.0M more than the cash it holds, and its operations bring in no cash to repay it.
Are shares being diluted?Diluting
The share count rose 23% in 4.8 years, and pay in shares costs 13% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-22. Fiscal years end in December.
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | 12 mo to Sep 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $892M | $1.12B | $693M | $361M | $468M | $661M |
| Sales growth | +86% | +26% | −38% | −48% | +30% | +56% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Gross margin | 56% | 58% | 56% | 54% | 57% | 58% |
| Operating margin | 7.3% | 16% | −5.5% | −62% | −27% | −0.9% |
| Net margin | 4.7% | 11% | −11% | −68% | −29% | −4.4% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Research and development | 31% | 26% | 39% | 62% | 45% | 34% |
| Selling, general and admin | 17% | 15% | 19% | 38% | 34% | 25% |
| Pay in shares | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 18% | 16% | 13% |
| Capital spending | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | $168M | $389M | $43.4M | −$45.3M | $19.6M | −$7.25M |
| Free cash flow | $129M | $347M | $29.9M | −$63.0M | $7.02M | −$20.6M |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $131M | $206M | $187M | $119M | $72.8M | $81.1M |
| Debt | $306M | $122M | $122M | $123M | $124M | $164M |
| Net cash | −$176M | $84.1M | $64.9M | −$4.42M | −$50.8M | −$83.0M |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Return on capital | 7.4% | 16% | - | - | - | - |
| Shares (diluted) | 79.7M | 80.9M | 80.7M | 83.6M | 86.6M | 97.7M |
What growth costs
Growth is making the company cheaper to run per sale: research fell from 63 cents of every sales dollar in 2024 to 38 cents over the last year. Stock paid to staff still costs about 16 cents per dollar, and factories cost little, because others make the chips.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C34facthigh confidence
Costs per sales dollar have fallen as revenue recovered: research was 62.5% of revenue in 2024, 44.6% in 2025 and 37.8% over the four quarters to June 2026; selling and admin 38.4%, 34.1% and 31.3%; stock pay 18.3%, 16.5% and 15.6%. In 2022 research was 26.5% of revenue.
C14facthigh confidence
The non-GAAP figures leave out stock pay: Q2 2026 operating expenses carried $27.3M of it plus $9.2M of performance-based equity, and GAAP earnings per share were $0.02 against $0.35 non-GAAP. Over the four quarters to June 2026 stock pay was $88.6M, 15.6% of revenue.
The last report (23 Jul)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
55%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
23.1%
Growth from the quarter before
against 0.6% the quarter before that
-2¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales
Sales for Q3 2026 were $218.1M, up 72% and inside the $210M-$220M guide, above its midpoint. Infrastructure, led by optical chips, rose 210% to $124.9M and is now 57% of sales, while broadband fell 8%. Counting the stock it pays staff, the company made a 13.9% operating profit; on its own adjusted measure the margin was 29.5%.
Management raised its 2026 optical forecast to $250M-$270M and guided Q4 sales to $240M-$260M. Cash from operations was negative $13.6M, because it paid chip makers ahead for 2027 orders.
What it did to the thesisIt met the test we set: sales above the guide's midpoint, the optical forecast raised and a profit after stock pay. It did not change what the price asks, which is sales far beyond the company's best year at a margin it has never earned.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $0.35 against $0.33 expected; $0.02 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C39facthigh confidence
Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $218.1M, up 72% from $126.5M a year earlier and 29% from $168.8M in Q2, inside the $210M-$220M guide. Infrastructure was $124.9M, up 210% and 57% of revenue; Broadband $53.3M, down 8%; Connectivity $24.7M; Industrial and multi-market $15.1M. GAAP gross margin was 58.7% (non-GAAP 60.0%), GAAP operating expenses $97.8M and the GAAP operating margin 13.9%, against 29.5% non-GAAP; GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.30 against $0.62 non-GAAP. No customer was 10% of Q3 revenue; one was 10% and the ten largest 56% of nine-month revenue. Operating cash flow was negative $13.6M in the quarter and negative $17.7M in nine months, after $137.6M of working capital absorbed by wafer prepayments and inventory.
sourceThird quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- Infrastructure also holds wireless backhaul and analog chips, so its 210% is not all optical; the filing gives no optical split (C01).
- The GAAP operating profit is about $30M on $218.1M of revenue; stock pay, performance equity and acquisition costs of about $34M make up the gap to the non-GAAP figure, and nine-month operating cash flow is negative.
C14facthigh confidence
The non-GAAP figures leave out stock pay: Q2 2026 operating expenses carried $27.3M of it plus $9.2M of performance-based equity, and GAAP earnings per share were $0.02 against $0.35 non-GAAP. Over the four quarters to June 2026 stock pay was $88.6M, 15.6% of revenue.
C12facthigh confidence
Third-quarter 2026 guidance was revenue of $210M to $220M, non-GAAP gross margin of 58.5% to 61.5%, GAAP operating expenses of $98M to $104M, non-GAAP operating expenses of $66M to $71M and about 99M diluted shares. The quarter came in at revenue of $218.1M, non-GAAP gross margin of 60.0%, GAAP operating expenses of $97.8M, non-GAAP operating expenses of $66.5M and 97.7M diluted shares against about 99M guided: inside the revenue, non-GAAP gross margin and non-GAAP operating expense ranges, GAAP operating expenses $0.2M under the bottom of theirs, and 1.3M fewer diluted shares than guided.
sourceSecond quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primarySecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryThird quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
The guide was 27% above Q2 revenue and the quarter landed 29% above it, at the top half of the range; the beat over the vendor's estimate was 1.4% (C22).
- 2026-10-22editedThe guided quarter was reported: management's forecast tested against the filed Q3 figures (S24) and becomes a fact.
C40management claimmedium confidence
Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance is revenue of $240M to $260M, GAAP gross margin of 58% to 61% and non-GAAP 59% to 62%, GAAP operating expenses of $96M to $101M, non-GAAP operating expenses of $65M to $70M, and about 99.7M diluted shares. Management raised its 2026 optical data-centre revenue outlook to $250M-$270M, from $210M-$230M in July, and said on the call that it expects to outgrow the market in 2027 but gave no 2027 figure.
sourceThird quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
The guide is 15% above Q3 revenue at the midpoint; Q3's revenue beat the vendor estimate by 1.4%, a smaller beat than the 2.6% of Q2 that preceded a 21.5% fall (C22).
What management did with the money
In 2023 MaxLinear agreed to buy Silicon Motion, then walked away. Silicon Motion is still pursuing it in arbitration for a $160M fee plus damages, more than the company's cash. Since then it has paid down debt to $125M and bought back $20M of stock, but drew $40M on its credit line this year to pay for chips ahead.
Insiders in 2026Q3: 1 purchases and 18 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C17facthigh confidence
Silicon Motion is pursuing MaxLinear in Singapore arbitration for the $160M termination fee of the merger MaxLinear walked away from in July 2023, plus further substantial damages, interest and costs. MaxLinear says it terminated properly; the arbitration is confidential and undecided, and a securities class action over the same deal is pending.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primarySilicon Motion Technology Form 6-K, interim report (Exhibit…primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary
- 2026-10-22editedRead again in the Q3 10-Q (S24): still confidential and undecided, with no date; no change to the claim.
C04facthigh confidence
Revenue was $1,120.3M in 2022 with GAAP operating income of $180.2M, a 16.1% margin, the company's record on both. It then fell to $693.3M in 2023 and $360.5M in 2024, with GAAP operating losses of $38.2M and $223.4M, and GAAP operating income has been negative in every year since.
C16facthigh confidence
There were 91.0M shares outstanding at 30 September 2026 and 97.7M diluted in Q3, against 73.1M diluted in 2020; management guides about 99.7M for Q4. The company bought back $20M of stock in Q4 2025 and pays no dividend.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimaryThe filer's XBRL statements 2020 to Q2 2026, frozen at…primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
- 2026-10-22editedRe-sourced to the Q3 10-Q (S24) and the Q4 guide (S26): shares up from 90.7M to 91.0M.
C15facthigh confidence
At 30 September 2026 MaxLinear held $81.1M of cash plus $28.8M of restricted cash, owed $125.0M on a term loan due 23 June 2028 and $40.0M drawn on its revolving facility, and on 16 October raised the revolver's commitment by $70M to $200M. Inventory was $113.7M and prepaid expenses $121.6M, against $50.4M at the year end, a build the chief financial officer ties to wafer prepayments for 2027 orders and expects to rise further. Operating cash flow over the first nine months was negative $17.7M and capital spending $9.7M.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primarySecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryThe filer's XBRL statements 2020 to Q2 2026, frozen at…primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primaryForm 8-K of 22 October 2026: results release and the third…primaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
- 2026-10-22editedRe-struck to the Q3 2026 10-Q (S24) and the 16 October amendment (S25): cash up $16.3M, the revolver drawn $40.0M and enlarged, prepayments up.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Priced for perfection. The price assumes MaxLinear grows far past its best-ever year and earns a profit margin it has never earned.
Share price
$78.82
close,
Company value for each $1 of sales
17.3
rivals' middle 24.4 · its 6-year normal 4.0
The shares fell 28% in the two weeks to 21 October, from $105.49 to $75.79, before the results. They had risen from $16 to over $100 in a year, so the price swings hard on mood.
The 22 October results met the test we set. The next tests are the Q4 results in February and whether the first 1.6T chip sales arrive in the first half of 2027, as management now says. LightCounting wrote in September that optical market growth must be at its peak.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C22facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $16.20 on 2 October 2025 and $105.49 on 5 October 2026, up 551%; revenue per share rose 46.8% and the multiple of trailing revenue per share went from 3.7 to 16.5. They peaked at $128.30 on 30 June, fell 21.5% on 24 July after a second quarter 2.6% above the revenue estimate and a raised guide, touched $57.59 on 1 September and rose 50.7% in September.
C39facthigh confidence
Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $218.1M, up 72% from $126.5M a year earlier and 29% from $168.8M in Q2, inside the $210M-$220M guide. Infrastructure was $124.9M, up 210% and 57% of revenue; Broadband $53.3M, down 8%; Connectivity $24.7M; Industrial and multi-market $15.1M. GAAP gross margin was 58.7% (non-GAAP 60.0%), GAAP operating expenses $97.8M and the GAAP operating margin 13.9%, against 29.5% non-GAAP; GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.30 against $0.62 non-GAAP. No customer was 10% of Q3 revenue; one was 10% and the ten largest 56% of nine-month revenue. Operating cash flow was negative $13.6M in the quarter and negative $17.7M in nine months, after $137.6M of working capital absorbed by wafer prepayments and inventory.
sourceThird quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- Infrastructure also holds wireless backhaul and analog chips, so its 210% is not all optical; the filing gives no optical split (C01).
- The GAAP operating profit is about $30M on $218.1M of revenue; stock pay, performance equity and acquisition costs of about $34M make up the gap to the non-GAAP figure, and nine-month operating cash flow is negative.
C10management claimlow confidence
Management expects Rushmore, its 1.6T PAM4 DSP, to start producing revenue in 2027: on the 22 October call the chief executive said an initial design win will start shipping in the first half, with the second half set up from it, and a ramp at one or two customers later in the year; its Washington amplifier and Annapurna cable and retimer chips to bring initial revenue in 2027 and a larger ramp in 2028; and a fibre design win at a cloud operator, qualified, to deploy in 2027.
sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- In January the same company expected Rushmore production revenue to start at the end of 2026 (C11).
- Nearly all 1.6T optics ship today in one configuration, and Broadcom and Marvell already supply the leading module makers (C26).
- 2026-10-22editedThe 22 October call (S26) puts the first Rushmore shipments in the first half of 2027, a quarter or two earlier than July's second-half ramp; a management claim, not yet filed.
C25factmedium confidence
LightCounting now expects the Ethernet optical transceiver market to grow 120% in 2026; even in its most optimistic scenario growth falls to 76% in 2027 and 20% by 2031, and it writes that the market must be at the peak of this super-cycle, with growth periods of two to three years historically interrupted by a flat or negative year.
The betSpeculation
If it works
2.2×
from today's value, valued like its peers
If it fails
keep 30%
of today's market value: the rest of the company and Infrastructure stalled at its lowest case, less debt
How we read the multiple
Buyers pay about 10.6 times the last year's sales, down from 16.9 on 5 October. The best year MaxLinear ever had was 2022: $1.12B of sales and 16 cents of operating profit on each dollar.
To earn 6% a year after tax on today's price, a common rule of thumb, MaxLinear must:
- Make about $530M a year of operating profit, after stock pay.
- Sell about $1.8B a year, keeping 30 cents of profit on each dollar.
- That is about 1.6 times its best year, at nearly twice its best margin.
Against its own history. Far dearer than its own past, when it was a broadband chip company; the higher price is a bet on the optical business, not something it has earned.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C20estimatemedium confidence
At $75.79 on 21 October 2026 the market value is about $6.90B on 91.0M shares; adding the $125.0M term loan and $40.0M of revolver and taking off $81.1M of cash gives an enterprise value near $6.98B. That is 10.6 times trailing revenue of $660.5M, 8.0 times Q3 revenue annualised, 7.0 times the Q4 guide's midpoint annualised and 7.2 times the vendor panel's 2027 revenue estimate, which predates this print.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryThe filer's XBRL statements 2020 to Q2 2026, frozen at…primaryResearch pack, frozen at content/MXL/research-pack.jsonsecondaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary
against this
- On the vendor's share count the multiple would be a few tenths higher.
- Counting the $28.8M of restricted cash would lower the enterprise value by under 1%.
- 2026-10-22editedRe-struck at the 21 October close ($75.79, from $105.49 on 5 October) with the Q3 filing's share count, debt, cash and trailing revenue (S24): 10.6 times from 16.9.
C21estimatemedium confidence
For a 6% after-tax yield at 21% tax, the $6.98B enterprise value needs about $530M of GAAP operating profit. At a 30% operating margin that is about $1.8B of revenue: about 1.6 times the 2022 record of $1.12B, at nearly twice that year's 16.1% margin, and about 1.4 times the vendor panel's 2029 estimate. Q3's GAAP operating margin was 13.9%.
derived$6.98B (C20) times 6%, divided by 0.79; revenue at a 30% margin, the bottom of management's non-GAAP target range applied to GAAP (C13); the 2022 record from C04; the 2029 estimate of $1.25B from C23, struck before this print; Q3 margin from C39.
against this
- A 6% yield is a judgement; at 5% the profit needed falls to about $442M, or $1.5B of revenue at 30%.
- Measured on management's non-GAAP basis, which leaves out stock pay, a 35% margin would need about $1.5B of revenue.
- The filed rivals trade at a median of about 24 times sales, so the market prices the whole group this way (S16).
- 2026-10-22editedRe-struck on the C20 enterprise value of $6.98B: the revenue the price needs falls from about $2.4B to about $1.8B because the price fell 28%, not because the business earned more.
C04facthigh confidence
Revenue was $1,120.3M in 2022 with GAAP operating income of $180.2M, a 16.1% margin, the company's record on both. It then fell to $693.3M in 2023 and $360.5M in 2024, with GAAP operating losses of $38.2M and $223.4M, and GAAP operating income has been negative in every year since.
C13management claimlow confidence
Management's long-term targets are a 65% gross margin and a 30% to 35% operating margin, both on its non-GAAP basis; the finance chief said on the July call that neither target had changed. The 22 October call did not restate them; the Q3 non-GAAP gross margin was 60.0% and the non-GAAP operating margin 29.5%, and Q4 non-GAAP gross margin is guided to 59% to 62%.
sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
The GAAP record is a 16.1% operating margin, in 2022 (C04), and stock pay runs at 15.6% of revenue, which the non-GAAP basis leaves out (C14).
- 2026-10-22editedQ3 actuals set beside the targets (S26): non-GAAP gross margin 60.0% against 65%, non-GAAP operating margin 29.5% against 30%-35%; the targets were not restated or withdrawn on the call.
Priced against its rivals
The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of sales, cheapest first:
| Ticker | Company | company value for each $1 of sales |
|---|---|---|
| SMTC | Semtech | 15.8× |
| MXL | MaxLinear | 17.3× |
| MTSI | MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings | 22.9× |
| CRDO | Credo Technology Group Holding | 25.9× |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | 27.2× |
| AVGO | Broadcom not in the median | 20.5× |
The middle of the other 4 is 24.4. Broadcom Inc. competes with it in one product line inside a much bigger company, so its price says little about this business and it is not counted in the middle. MaxLinear, Inc. is 2nd cheapest of 5.
Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.
Cheaper than its optical rivals, but the whole group has been re-priced for AI, and half of MaxLinear is slower broadband.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Realtek Semiconductor Corp., MediaTek, Inc., Renesas Electronics Corporation, vertically integrated module makers.
The bet: what it pays if it works
This bet is on one business: Infrastructure, mostly the optical chips. Broadband, Wi-Fi and industrial are counted separately, at the modest price listed chip makers in those markets fetch for each dollar of sales.
If Infrastructure grows with its market from today's pace, valued like its optical rivals, the stock is worth only modestly more than today: an expensive bet. If optical stalls, shareholders keep mostly the slower half, a small part of today's price.
| Infrastructure revenue in two to three years | PAM4 DSP chips needed | Valued like its peers | Like the cheapest |
|---|---|---|---|
| $234.72M | about 10.4M at 100% kept | 1.0× | 0.7× |
| $598.50M (the big win) | about 26.6M at 100% kept | 2.2× | 1.5× |
| $630.00M | about 28.0M at 100% kept | 2.3× | 1.5× |
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $549.18M of Infrastructure revenue (about 24.4M PAM4 DSP chips); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $1.46B of Infrastructure revenue (about 64.7M PAM4 DSP chips), at the same multiple.
Each row is Infrastructure alone, plus the rest of the company (Broadband, Wi-Fi and industrial) counted at about $1.34B.
The steps it has to take
- Done 2026 optical forecast raised from about $100M to $210M-$230M
- Done Q2 2026 revenue of $168.8M, up 55%, with Infrastructure half of it
- Done Q3 2026 revenue of $218.1M within the $210M-$220M guide
- In progress 2026 optical revenue of $250M-$270M delivered (raised in October from $210M-$230M) due 2027-01-31
- Slipped First Rushmore 1.6T production revenue due 2027-12
- Not started Washington and Annapurna volume ramps due 2028-12
- Not started A quarter with a GAAP operating margin of 25% or more due 2027-12
The detail behind the label
Rating
Fair
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Valued like the cheapest
1.5×
the same success, the lowest comparison
Cheap bet at about
≈ $33.63
57% below the price (close, )
The option
2.4×
what Infrastructure is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C05facthigh confidence
Broadband revenue fell from $493.2M in 2022 to $116.8M in 2024, recovered to $204.4M in 2025 and was down 5.6% in Q2 2026. Connectivity fell from $303.9M to $55.8M over the same two years. Infrastructure held between $113.9M and $177.1M through the downturn.
C37factmedium confidence
FMP on 2026-10-06 puts Synaptics, which sells Wi-Fi and home-network chips, at 4.2 times company value to trailing sales, Qualcomm at 4.5 and Skyworks at 3.0.
against this
None is a like-for-like broadband chip seller: Qualcomm is mostly handsets, Skyworks mostly radio parts, and Realtek and MediaTek, the closest rivals, list in Taiwan.
C03facthigh confidence
Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $168.8M, up 55% on a year earlier and 23% on the first quarter. Infrastructure was $85.0M, up 145% and now half of revenue; Broadband $44.9M, down 6%; Connectivity $24.0M, up 16%; Industrial and multi-market $15.0M, up 158%. GAAP gross margin was 57.8% and the GAAP operating loss $4.2M; non-GAAP operating income was $37.6M, 22.3% of revenue.
C25factmedium confidence
LightCounting now expects the Ethernet optical transceiver market to grow 120% in 2026; even in its most optimistic scenario growth falls to 76% in 2027 and 20% by 2031, and it writes that the market must be at the peak of this super-cycle, with growth periods of two to three years historically interrupted by a flat or negative year.
C11facthigh confidence
Rushmore's timing has moved twice: on the January call management expected its production revenue ramp to start at the end of 2026; on the July call it expected revenue to start in 2027, with ramps in the second half of that year; on the 22 October call it said an initial design win would start shipping in the first half of 2027.
sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimarySecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
- 2026-10-22editedThird dating added from the 22 October call (S26): the first shipments are now expected earlier than July's date but later than January's.
C10management claimlow confidence
Management expects Rushmore, its 1.6T PAM4 DSP, to start producing revenue in 2027: on the 22 October call the chief executive said an initial design win will start shipping in the first half, with the second half set up from it, and a ramp at one or two customers later in the year; its Washington amplifier and Annapurna cable and retimer chips to bring initial revenue in 2027 and a larger ramp in 2028; and a fibre design win at a cloud operator, qualified, to deploy in 2027.
sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- In January the same company expected Rushmore production revenue to start at the end of 2026 (C11).
- Nearly all 1.6T optics ship today in one configuration, and Broadcom and Marvell already supply the leading module makers (C26).
- 2026-10-22editedThe 22 October call (S26) puts the first Rushmore shipments in the first half of 2027, a quarter or two earlier than July's second-half ramp; a management claim, not yet filed.
C15facthigh confidence
At 30 September 2026 MaxLinear held $81.1M of cash plus $28.8M of restricted cash, owed $125.0M on a term loan due 23 June 2028 and $40.0M drawn on its revolving facility, and on 16 October raised the revolver's commitment by $70M to $200M. Inventory was $113.7M and prepaid expenses $121.6M, against $50.4M at the year end, a build the chief financial officer ties to wafer prepayments for 2027 orders and expects to rise further. Operating cash flow over the first nine months was negative $17.7M and capital spending $9.7M.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primarySecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryThe filer's XBRL statements 2020 to Q2 2026, frozen at…primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primaryForm 8-K of 22 October 2026: results release and the third…primaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
- 2026-10-22editedRe-struck to the Q3 2026 10-Q (S24) and the 16 October amendment (S25): cash up $16.3M, the revolver drawn $40.0M and enlarged, prepayments up.
C17facthigh confidence
Silicon Motion is pursuing MaxLinear in Singapore arbitration for the $160M termination fee of the merger MaxLinear walked away from in July 2023, plus further substantial damages, interest and costs. MaxLinear says it terminated properly; the arbitration is confidential and undecided, and a securities class action over the same deal is pending.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primarySilicon Motion Technology Form 6-K, interim report (Exhibit…primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary
- 2026-10-22editedRead again in the Q3 10-Q (S24): still confidential and undecided, with no date; no change to the claim.
Where we disagree with the market
The market believes
An AI optics winner whose optical sales triple this year and keep compounding through 2028.
We believe
The optical wins are real but cover one chip generation, in a market near its fastest growth, beside a cyclical broadband half.
The market is paying for several more years of fast growth and a much fatter profit margin. The evidence covers one generation: the next chip has slipped, and analysts expect the market's growth to slow from 2027.
We are wrong if quarterly sales reach $300M with a 25% operating margin after stock pay, and the 1.6T chip starts selling on time.
What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
64%
of 11, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
64%
of 11, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C23factmedium confidence
The vendor's snapshot counts 11 Buy and 6 Hold ratings; its dated series shows 63.6% positive of 11 analysts, up from 36.4% in February. Average revenue estimates are $738.8M for 2026, $964.2M for 2027 with adjusted earnings of $2.70 a share, $1.16B for 2028 and $1.25B for 2029. Short interest was 5.7% of the float on 15 September.
sourceResearch pack, frozen at content/MXL/research-pack.jsonsecondaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary
- 2026-10-22editedRefresh date rolled: the panel's estimates and ratings predate the 22 October print and have not yet been updated by the vendor; figures unchanged.
C06management claimmedium confidence
Management has raised its 2026 optical data-centre revenue forecast four times: about $100M to $130M for Keystone in January, $150M to $170M in April, $210M to $230M in July and $250M to $270M on the 22 October call, against a run rate it says expands further into 2027.
sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimaryFirst quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimarySecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- No figure for optical revenue is filed: the 10-Q reports only the Infrastructure category, which also holds wireless backhaul and analog chips.
- The shares fell 21.5% the day after the July raise, which suggests the market had already priced more.
- 2026-10-22editedFourth raise read on the 22 October call (S26): the range moved from $210M-$230M to $250M-$270M.
C21estimatemedium confidence
For a 6% after-tax yield at 21% tax, the $6.98B enterprise value needs about $530M of GAAP operating profit. At a 30% operating margin that is about $1.8B of revenue: about 1.6 times the 2022 record of $1.12B, at nearly twice that year's 16.1% margin, and about 1.4 times the vendor panel's 2029 estimate. Q3's GAAP operating margin was 13.9%.
derived$6.98B (C20) times 6%, divided by 0.79; revenue at a 30% margin, the bottom of management's non-GAAP target range applied to GAAP (C13); the 2022 record from C04; the 2029 estimate of $1.25B from C23, struck before this print; Q3 margin from C39.
against this
- A 6% yield is a judgement; at 5% the profit needed falls to about $442M, or $1.5B of revenue at 30%.
- Measured on management's non-GAAP basis, which leaves out stock pay, a 35% margin would need about $1.5B of revenue.
- The filed rivals trade at a median of about 24 times sales, so the market prices the whole group this way (S16).
- 2026-10-22editedRe-struck on the C20 enterprise value of $6.98B: the revenue the price needs falls from about $2.4B to about $1.8B because the price fell 28%, not because the business earned more.
C04facthigh confidence
Revenue was $1,120.3M in 2022 with GAAP operating income of $180.2M, a 16.1% margin, the company's record on both. It then fell to $693.3M in 2023 and $360.5M in 2024, with GAAP operating losses of $38.2M and $223.4M, and GAAP operating income has been negative in every year since.
C24factmedium confidence
LightCounting, an industry research firm, says 800G PAM4 chipset shipments nearly tripled in 2025 and expects 1.6T chipset sales above $2 billion in 2026, but expects PAM4 chipset sales growth to moderate in 2027 to 2031 as linear-drive optics, LPO and CPO, cut DSP sales.
C11facthigh confidence
Rushmore's timing has moved twice: on the January call management expected its production revenue ramp to start at the end of 2026; on the July call it expected revenue to start in 2027, with ramps in the second half of that year; on the 22 October call it said an initial design win would start shipping in the first half of 2027.
sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimarySecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
- 2026-10-22editedThird dating added from the 22 October call (S26): the first shipments are now expected earlier than July's date but later than January's.
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- An arbitration bill. Silicon Motion seeks a $160M fee plus damages, more than MaxLinear's cash, in one undecided ruling.
- Optics without the chip. Designs that drop the DSP could slow sales of Keystone-type chips from 2027.
- The next generation slips. The 1.6T chip moved from late 2026 into 2027, and each speed is a new contest.
- Broadband falls again. This half of the company fell by two-thirds from 2022 to 2024.
- Shipped through Asia. Three-quarters of products ship to Hong Kong, China and Vietnam, exposed to trade rules.
- The founder is selling. The chief executive sold about $50M of stock in August, outside a pre-arranged plan.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C17facthigh confidence
Silicon Motion is pursuing MaxLinear in Singapore arbitration for the $160M termination fee of the merger MaxLinear walked away from in July 2023, plus further substantial damages, interest and costs. MaxLinear says it terminated properly; the arbitration is confidential and undecided, and a securities class action over the same deal is pending.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primarySilicon Motion Technology Form 6-K, interim report (Exhibit…primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary
- 2026-10-22editedRead again in the Q3 10-Q (S24): still confidential and undecided, with no date; no change to the claim.
C24factmedium confidence
LightCounting, an industry research firm, says 800G PAM4 chipset shipments nearly tripled in 2025 and expects 1.6T chipset sales above $2 billion in 2026, but expects PAM4 chipset sales growth to moderate in 2027 to 2031 as linear-drive optics, LPO and CPO, cut DSP sales.
C11facthigh confidence
Rushmore's timing has moved twice: on the January call management expected its production revenue ramp to start at the end of 2026; on the July call it expected revenue to start in 2027, with ramps in the second half of that year; on the 22 October call it said an initial design win would start shipping in the first half of 2027.
sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimarySecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
- 2026-10-22editedThird dating added from the 22 October call (S26): the first shipments are now expected earlier than July's date but later than January's.
C05facthigh confidence
Broadband revenue fell from $493.2M in 2022 to $116.8M in 2024, recovered to $204.4M in 2025 and was down 5.6% in Q2 2026. Connectivity fell from $303.9M to $55.8M over the same two years. Infrastructure held between $113.9M and $177.1M through the downturn.
C08facthigh confidence
No customer was 10% of Q3 2026 revenue and one was 10% of the first nine months; the ten largest customers were 56% of nine-month revenue. A year earlier Customer A was 18% of Q3 and 17% of nine months and Customer B 11% and 13%. In 2025 two customers were 28% of revenue and the top ten 65%. Distributors handled 48% of Q3 revenue against 36% a year earlier.
sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary
- 2026-10-22editedRe-sourced to the Q3 2026 10-Q (S24): concentration eased further; the Q2 geography split was dropped as no longer current.
C18facthigh confidence
The founder and chief executive, Kishore Seendripu, sold 591,454 shares on 14 and 17 August 2026 at $83.31 to $88.16, about $50M and about a ninth of the 5.43M shares the April proxy gave him; none of the sales was under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. Across the year, 29 of 32 open-market insider sales were discretionary, and no insider bought.
sourceForms 4 filed for Kishore Seendripu, 14 and 17 August 2026,…primaryDefinitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) for the 2026 annual…primary
against this
He still held most of his stake, and a founder selling after a sixfold rise may be diversifying rather than signalling.
What we still do not know
- MaxLinear's share of optical DSP chips, and what each sells for. Only a paid industry report says.
- When the arbitration will be decided, and for how much. The proceedings are confidential.
- How much of Infrastructure is optical. The company reports only the total.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C33facthigh confidence
No source outside the company confirms MaxLinear's optical share: Credo's and Marvell's annual reports do not name it among their competitors, LightCounting's and Cignal AI's public summaries do not mention it, and an EDGAR full-text search found no other filer describing its PAM4 DSPs.
C17facthigh confidence
Silicon Motion is pursuing MaxLinear in Singapore arbitration for the $160M termination fee of the merger MaxLinear walked away from in July 2023, plus further substantial damages, interest and costs. MaxLinear says it terminated properly; the arbitration is confidential and undecided, and a securities class action over the same deal is pending.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primarySilicon Motion Technology Form 6-K, interim report (Exhibit…primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary
- 2026-10-22editedRead again in the Q3 10-Q (S24): still confidential and undecided, with no date; no change to the claim.
C06management claimmedium confidence
Management has raised its 2026 optical data-centre revenue forecast four times: about $100M to $130M for Keystone in January, $150M to $170M in April, $210M to $230M in July and $250M to $270M on the 22 October call, against a run rate it says expands further into 2027.
sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimaryFirst quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimarySecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryThird quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- No figure for optical revenue is filed: the 10-Q reports only the Infrastructure category, which also holds wireless backhaul and analog chips.
- The shares fell 21.5% the day after the July raise, which suggests the market had already priced more.
- 2026-10-22editedFourth raise read on the 22 October call (S26): the range moved from $210M-$230M to $250M-$270M.
What would change our view
- Unattractive→NeutralA cheaper price on an unchanged business
It needs:
- ○The company's total value falls to 8 times its last year of sales, with the business unchanged.about ≈$57.20 today, 27% below the last close
- Unattractive→NeutralThe next generation wins and the margin arrives
It needs all of:
- ○Quarterly sales of $300M or more.checked at the next results, due by 4 Feb
- ○A quarter with an operating profit of 25 cents per sales dollar, after stock pay.checked at the next results, due by 4 Feb
- ○The 1.6T chip selling in volume at two or more customers.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
- Optical sales for 2026 fall below $250M, the bottom of management's October range.
- LightCounting cuts its 2027 growth forecast for optical modules below 30%.
- The arbitration awards Silicon Motion more than MaxLinear's cash.
What is coming
- 4 February 2027 Q4 2026 results and the 2026 10-K: Revenue against the $240M-$260M guide, whether 2026 optical revenue landed in the raised $250M-$270M, the year's GAAP operating result and any update on the arbitration.
Every dated event ahead
- 4 February 2027 Q4 2026 results and the 2026 10-K: Revenue against the $240M-$260M guide, whether 2026 optical revenue landed in the raised $250M-$270M, the year's GAAP operating result and any update on the arbitration.
- June 2027 Rushmore 1.6T first production revenue: Whether the initial design win management says will ship in the first half of 2027 does, and whether MaxLinear wins the next speed's sockets or Keystone's position ends with 800G.
- 23 June 2028 Term loan maturity: Whether $125M is repaid from cash flow or refinanced.
Since we wrote this
Written
6 Oct
Price the thesis read
$105.49
5 Oct
Latest close
$78.82
close, · -25.3% since
- 22 OctEarningsQ3 beat and a fourth optical raise; Unattractive holdsSales of $218.1M beat the guide's midpoint and optical guidance rose to $250M-$270M, but the price still needs about $1.8B of revenue at a 30% margin.
- 15 OctBet moveBet re-struck: Priced for success to SpeculationRe-priced at the 14 October close; the rating moved from Expensive bet to Fair bet.
- 6 OctThesis writtenUnattractive, medium convictionReal optical chip wins, but the price needs twice the company's best year at a margin it has never earned.
Also checked 2 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 24
Where this came from
Sources - 24
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-01-29business, revenue by category, competitors, customer concentration, design-in life cycles, purchase-order terms, headcount, risk factorsbacksC01C02C04C05C08C28C29C36
- S02primarycompany filing2026-01-29full-year 2025 figures and the Q1 2026 guidebacksC02
- S03primarycompany filing2026-07-23revenue by category, concentration, shipment geography, balance sheet, debt, share count, the Silicon Motion disputebacksC01C03C08C15C16C17C20C22C23
- S04primarycompany filing2026-07-23Q3 guidance and the non-GAAP reconciliationbacksC03C12C14
- S05primarytranscript2026-01-29Fourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptthe first 2026 optical forecast, the 4M to 6M unit figure and the pricing exchange, Rushmore's first date, lead times, the buyback
we expect Keystone to generate about $100 million to $130 million in revenue in '26 with potential upside along with a further step function increase in run rate as we move into 2027. ... We expect Rushmore production revenue ramp starting at the end of 2026. ... this year, we could do anywhere between 4 million to 6 million units of PAM4 transceivers ... As you know, we've got 28-week lead times.
backsC06C07C09C11C16C32 - S06primarytranscript2026-04-23First quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptthe second optical forecast and the first fibre design win at a cloud operator
we are increasing our expectations for 2026 optical data center revenue to $150 million to $170 million range.
backsC06 - S07primarytranscript2026-07-23Second quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptthe third optical forecast, Keystone's power claim, the three-player claim, Rushmore's new date, the handful of customers, the long-term margin targets; analyst questions from Stifel, Susquehanna, Northland and Benchmark
we are once again raising our expectations for 2026 optical data center revenue to be between $210 million to $230 million with continued growth as run rates expand into 2027. Keystone, our 100-gigabit per lane 5-nanometer CMOS PAM4 DSP and SerDes technology continues to ramp into high-volume production at major hyperscale customers across U.S. and Asia for 400-gig and 800-gig deployments, delivering almost 40% lower consumption in power than competition ... We expect Rushmore, our 1.6 terabit optical PAM4 DSP at 200 gigabit per lane speeds to become an important optical connectivity growth driver beginning in 2027 ... For both Annapurna and Washington, we expect initial revenue in 2027, followed by a more meaningful volume ramp in 2028. ... there are only 3 players right now, and we are one of them.
backsC06C07C09C10C11C12C13C15 - S10primarycompany filing2026-04-02biographies, beneficial ownership, pay design and 2025 paybacksC18C19C35
- S12primarycompany filing2026-10-06revenue, margins, cost lines, stock pay, cash flow and diluted shares by year and for the trailing four quartersbacksC04C14C15C16C20C22C34
- S13secondaryvendor data2026-10-06Filed revenue split re-keyed by FMP, frozen at content/MXL/segment-history.jsonrevenue by category for 2020 to 2025 and each quarter, checked against filed revenuebacksC05
- S14primarycompany filing2026-08-10Silicon Motion Technology Form 6-K, interim report (Exhibit 99.2) Silicon Motion Technologythe claimant's own account of the arbitration and what it seeksbacksC17
- S15primarycompany filing2026-08-18each sale's size, price and Rule 10b5-1 flag, and a year of insider transactionsbacksC18
- S16secondaryvendor data2026-10-06Research pack, frozen at content/MXL/research-pack.jsonprice, returns, decomposition, analyst panel and estimates, earnings history, FINRA short interest, the competitors:filed cohortbacksC20C22C23
- S17primaryindustry data2026-02-26the analyst's view of the DSP market, its 1.6T size and the threat from linear-drive optics; read through ir_fetch
In 2025, hyperscalers' massive investments in AI infrastructure caused 800G PAM4 chipset shipments to nearly triple, with sales more than doubling year over year. ... Sales of 1.6T chipsets will exceed $2 billion in 2026 and grow rapidly through 2029. ... fully retimed Ethernet transceivers will still contribute the largest dollar growth, followed by active cables and linear optics (LPO/LRO/CPO). ... We expect that growth in sales of PAM4 chipsets will moderate in 2027-2031, as volume deployments of linear-drive solutions (LPO and CPO) will negatively impact DSP sales.
backsC24C33 - S18primaryindustry data2026-09-30LightCounting newsletter - We Must Be at the Peak of This Super-cycle (Ethernet Optics report, September 2026) LightCountingthe market's growth path and the warning that a flat year follows each growth period; read through ir_fetch
We now expect 120% growth in the Ethernet optical transceiver market for 2026 ... Even in this scenario, we assume that the market growth rate will decline from 120% in 2026 to 76% in 2027 and 20% by 2031. We must be at the peak of this super-cycle in terms of growth rate. ... growth periods of 2-3 years are interrupted by a flat or negative year.
backsC25 - S19primaryindustry data2026-06-18Cignal AI press release - Datacom Optical Component Revenue Doubles to $7.7 Billion in 1Q26 Cignal AIan independent unit count for the modules the DSPs go into, and the CPO timetable; read through ir_fetch
High-speed (400G+) datacom module shipments set a record; up 145% year-over-year. ... Almost 20 million modules shipped in the quarter as AI build-outs accelerated. 800GbE now accounts for the majority of high-speed datacom module shipments, and unit shipments will more than double in 2026. ... 1.6TbE module shipments grew 50% sequentially and will exceed 10 million units in 2026. Nearly all 1.6TbE optics currently ship in DR (silicon photonics) configurations. ... CPO deployments are imminent with Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC advancing 200G/lane platforms.
backsC26C33 - S20primaryother2026-10-01the attacker's own account of what it replaces and who has adopted it; the quote frozen by the AAOI thesis
Replacing pluggable transceivers with silicon photonics on the same package as the ASIC, NVIDIA CPO innovations provide 5x better power efficiency ... Design simplicity and power efficiency drives CoreWeave, Lambda, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure as first adopters. ... Spectrum-X Ethernet Photonics Ramps to Full Production
backsC27 - S21primarycompany filing2026-06-23Credo Technology Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 Credo Technology Groupa rival selling optical DSPs to the same buyers; its competition section names Broadcom, Marvell and Astera Labs and not MaxLinear
We sell our products to hyperscalers, Neoclouds, OEMs, ODMs, CMs and optical module manufacturers, as well as into the enterprise and HPC markets.
backsC33 - S22primarycompany filing2026-03-11Marvell Technology Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 Marvell Technologythe incumbent DSP seller's own filing; its 24-name competitor list does not include MaxLinear
We are a fabless supplier of high-performance semiconductor products with core strengths in developing and scaling complex System-on-a-Chip architectures
backsC33 - S23secondaryvendor data2026-10-06FMP key-metrics-ttm for SYNA, QCOM and SWKS, fetched 2026-10-06 Financial Modeling Preptrailing company-value-to-sales for listed sellers of Wi-Fi, broadband and radio chips, through scripts/api/fmp.py
SYNA evToSalesTTM 4.24 enterpriseValueTTM 5.08B; QCOM evToSalesTTM 4.54 enterpriseValueTTM 199.97B; SWKS evToSalesTTM 3.02 enterpriseValueTTM 12.13B
backsC37 - S24primarycompany filing2026-10-22Q3 and nine-month revenue by category, customer concentration, balance sheet, debt and the October credit amendment, share count, the Silicon Motion notebacksC08C12C15C16C17C20C38C39
- S25primarycompany filing2026-10-22the Item 1.01 amendment raising the revolver to $200M and the Item 2.02 resultsbacksC15C38
- S26primarytranscript2026-10-22Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptQ3 revenue and margins, the fourth optical raise, the Q4 guide, Rushmore's first-half 2027 design win, prepayments for 2027 wafers; analyst questions from Stifel, Loop, Stonex, Susquehanna, BNP Paribas, Needham, Northland and Wells Fargo
Reflecting this momentum, we are raising our 26 optical data server revenue outlook to $250 million to $270 million. ... We currently expect revenue in the fourth quarter of 26 to be between $240 million and $260 million ... there is an initial design win that will start shipping in the first half.
backsC06C10C11C12C13C15C16C39C40 - S27primarycompany filing2026-10-22Q3 revenue, GAAP and non-GAAP margins and earnings per share, the Q4 guidebacksC12C39C40