MaxLinear (MXL)

השורה התחתונה

הציון שלנו ל-MaxLinear: לא אטרקטיבית. שבבי האופטיקה החדשים שלה זוכים להזמנות אמיתיות במרכזי נתונים של AI, והרבעון שהסתיים בספטמבר עקף את התחזית. אבל החצי השני של החברה, פס רחב ו-Wi-Fi, הוא מחזורי ונפל בשני שלישים לפני שנתיים, ולכן העסק בינוני. המחיר מגלם תרחיש מושלם: הוא דורש מכירות של כפול 1.6 בערך מהשנה הטובה ביותר של החברה, בשיעור רווח כמעט כפול משלה. כהימור היא שבירה, כי המחיר כבר מגלם הצלחה: אם התחום האופטי ימשיך לצמוח בקצב השוק, נקבל בערך פי אחד וחצי מהכסף, ואם יתקע, יישאר פחות מרבע. דור השבבים הבא כבר נדחה פעם אחת.

הטיעון לטווח הארוךמרכזי נתונים של AI ממשיכים להוסיף חיבורים אופטיים מהירים יותר, ואם ה-DSP של MaxLinear, בצריכת חשמל נמוכה יותר, ממשיכים לזכות בתכנונים בכל מהירות חדשה, המכירות האופטיות שלה ימשיכו לצמוח בקצב גבוה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 7 טענות

C39עובדהhigh confidence

Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $218.1M, up 72% from $126.5M a year earlier and 29% from $168.8M in Q2, inside the $210M-$220M guide. Infrastructure was $124.9M, up 210% and 57% of revenue; Broadband $53.3M, down 8%; Connectivity $24.7M; Industrial and multi-market $15.1M. GAAP gross margin was 58.7% (non-GAAP 60.0%), GAAP operating expenses $97.8M and the GAAP operating margin 13.9%, against 29.5% non-GAAP; GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.30 against $0.62 non-GAAP. No customer was 10% of Q3 revenue; one was 10% and the ten largest 56% of nine-month revenue. Operating cash flow was negative $13.6M in the quarter and negative $17.7M in nine months, after $137.6M of working capital absorbed by wafer prepayments and inventory.

sourceThird quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

Infrastructure also holds wireless backhaul and analog chips, so its 210% is not all optical; the filing gives no optical split (C01).
The GAAP operating profit is about $30M on $218.1M of revenue; stock pay, performance equity and acquisition costs of about $34M make up the gap to the non-GAAP figure, and nine-month operating cash flow is negative.

historical · quarter ended 2026-09-30written 2026-10-22

C04עובדהhigh confidence

Revenue was $1,120.3M in 2022 with GAAP operating income of $180.2M, a 16.1% margin, the company's record on both. It then fell to $693.3M in 2023 and $360.5M in 2024, with GAAP operating losses of $38.2M and $223.4M, and GAAP operating income has been negative in every year since.

sourceThe filer's XBRL statements 2020 to Q2 2026, frozen at…primary Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary

historical · 2020-2025written 2026-10-06

C06טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management has raised its 2026 optical data-centre revenue forecast four times: about $100M to $130M for Keystone in January, $150M to $170M in April, $210M to $230M in July and $250M to $270M on the 22 October call, against a run rate it says expands further into 2027.

sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary First quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Second quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

No figure for optical revenue is filed: the 10-Q reports only the Infrastructure category, which also holds wireless backhaul and analog chips.
The shares fell 21.5% the day after the July raise, which suggests the market had already priced more.

2026-10-22editedFourth raise read on the 22 October call (S26): the range moved from $210M-$230M to $250M-$270M.

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

C11עובדהhigh confidence

Rushmore's timing has moved twice: on the January call management expected its production revenue ramp to start at the end of 2026; on the July call it expected revenue to start in 2027, with ramps in the second half of that year; on the 22 October call it said an initial design win would start shipping in the first half of 2027.

sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary Second quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

2026-10-22editedThird dating added from the 22 October call (S26): the first shipments are now expected earlier than July's date but later than January's.

historical · 2026-01 to 2026-10written 2026-10-06

C21אומדןmedium confidence

For a 6% after-tax yield at 21% tax, the $6.98B enterprise value needs about $530M of GAAP operating profit. At a 30% operating margin that is about $1.8B of revenue: about 1.6 times the 2022 record of $1.12B, at nearly twice that year's 16.1% margin, and about 1.4 times the vendor panel's 2029 estimate. Q3's GAAP operating margin was 13.9%.

derived$6.98B (C20) times 6%, divided by 0.79; revenue at a 30% margin, the bottom of management's non-GAAP target range applied to GAAP (C13); the 2022 record from C04; the 2029 estimate of $1.25B from C23, struck before this print; Q3 margin from C39.

against this

A 6% yield is a judgement; at 5% the profit needed falls to about $442M, or $1.5B of revenue at 30%.
Measured on management's non-GAAP basis, which leaves out stock pay, a 35% margin would need about $1.5B of revenue.
The filed rivals trade at a median of about 24 times sales, so the market prices the whole group this way (S16).

2026-10-22editedRe-struck on the C20 enterprise value of $6.98B: the revenue the price needs falls from about $2.4B to about $1.8B because the price fell 28%, not because the business earned more.

current state · 2026-10-21written 2026-10-06

C24עובדהmedium confidence

LightCounting, an industry research firm, says 800G PAM4 chipset shipments nearly tripled in 2025 and expects 1.6T chipset sales above $2 billion in 2026, but expects PAM4 chipset sales growth to moderate in 2027 to 2031 as linear-drive optics, LPO and CPO, cut DSP sales.

sourceLightCounting newsletter - AI Capex Flows Down the Supply…primary

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

C05עובדהhigh confidence

Broadband revenue fell from $493.2M in 2022 to $116.8M in 2024, recovered to $204.4M in 2025 and was down 5.6% in Q2 2026. Connectivity fell from $303.9M to $55.8M over the same two years. Infrastructure held between $113.9M and $177.1M through the downturn.

sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary Filed revenue split re-keyed by FMP, frozen at…secondary

historical · 2022-Q2 2026written 2026-10-06

01

החברה

MaxLinear מתכננת שבבים ומייצרת אותם אצל TSMC ו-UMC. השבב שצומח אצלה מהר ביותר, Keystone, נמצא בתוך מודולים אופטיים נשלפים שמחברים שרתים במרכזי נתונים של AI: הוא מנקה את האות החשמלי המהיר לפני שלייזר הופך אותו לאור.

לדברי ההנהלה, יצרניות המודולים וחברות הענן שמאחוריהן קונות אותו כי הוא צורך כמעט 40% פחות חשמל משבבים מתחרים של Broadcom ו-Marvell. אף מקור חיצוני עדיין לא מאשר זאת. שאר החברה מוכרת שבבים לציוד אינטרנט ביתי, לנתבי Wi-Fi ולציוד תעשייתי.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות

C01עובדהhigh confidence

MaxLinear is a fabless chip designer: it designs radio, analog, mixed-signal and signal-processing chips and has TSMC and UMC make them. It reports revenue in four categories: Infrastructure (optical data-centre chips, wireless backhaul, high-performance analog), Broadband (cable, fibre and DSL gateway chips), Connectivity (Wi-Fi and Ethernet) and Industrial and multi-market.

sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-06

C07טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management describes Keystone as a 5-nanometer PAM4 DSP for 400G and 800G optical modules, ramping at major cloud operators in the US and Asia with almost 40% lower power than the competition, and says only three suppliers ship PAM4 DSPs in volume, MaxLinear among them; Broadcom and Marvell are the other two it names.

sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Fourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

Credo, which MaxLinear's own 10-K names as a competitor, also sells optical DSPs to the same module makers (S21).
LightCounting's public summaries and Cignal AI's vendor list do not name MaxLinear; no source outside the company states its share or its power advantage (C33).

current state · 2026-07-23written 2026-10-06

C36עובדהhigh confidence

MaxLinear had 1,115 employees at the end of 2025, 786 of them in research and development.

sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-06

C06טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management has raised its 2026 optical data-centre revenue forecast four times: about $100M to $130M for Keystone in January, $150M to $170M in April, $210M to $230M in July and $250M to $270M on the 22 October call, against a run rate it says expands further into 2027.

sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary First quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Second quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

No figure for optical revenue is filed: the 10-Q reports only the Infrastructure category, which also holds wireless backhaul and analog chips.
The shares fell 21.5% the day after the July raise, which suggests the market had already priced more.

2026-10-22editedFourth raise read on the 22 October call (S26): the range moved from $210M-$230M to $250M-$270M.

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

C33עובדהhigh confidence

No source outside the company confirms MaxLinear's optical share: Credo's and Marvell's annual reports do not name it among their competitors, LightCounting's and Cignal AI's public summaries do not mention it, and an EDGAR full-text search found no other filer describing its PAM4 DSPs.

sourceCredo Technology Form 10-K for fiscal 2026primary Marvell Technology Form 10-K for fiscal 2026primary LightCounting newsletter - AI Capex Flows Down the Supply…primary Cignal AI press release - Datacom Optical Component Revenue…primary

current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-06

ממה היא מרוויחה

MaxLinear מוכרת שבבים הזמנה אחר הזמנה, בעיקר ליצרניות ציוד ומודולים, וכמעט מחצית מהמכירות עוברת דרך מפיצים. ברבעון השני של 2026 מחצית מהמכירות הגיעו מתחום התשתיות (השבבים האופטיים, בתוספת רכיבי רדיו ואנלוגיים) ומחצית משבבי פס רחב, Wi-Fi ותעשייה.

אף לקוח לא חותם על חוזה ארוך. מה שמבטיח הכנסות הוא ששבב שתוכנן לתוך מוצר נשאר בו בדרך כלל לכל חיי המוצר, שנתיים עד שבע שנים.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C03עובדהhigh confidence

Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $168.8M, up 55% on a year earlier and 23% on the first quarter. Infrastructure was $85.0M, up 145% and now half of revenue; Broadband $44.9M, down 6%; Connectivity $24.0M, up 16%; Industrial and multi-market $15.0M, up 158%. GAAP gross margin was 57.8% and the GAAP operating loss $4.2M; non-GAAP operating income was $37.6M, 22.3% of revenue.

sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary Second quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-06

C08עובדהhigh confidence

No customer was 10% of Q3 2026 revenue and one was 10% of the first nine months; the ten largest customers were 56% of nine-month revenue. A year earlier Customer A was 18% of Q3 and 17% of nine months and Customer B 11% and 13%. In 2025 two customers were 28% of revenue and the top ten 65%. Distributors handled 48% of Q3 revenue against 36% a year earlier.

sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary

2026-10-22editedRe-sourced to the Q3 2026 10-Q (S24): concentration eased further; the Q2 geography split was dropped as no longer current.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-06

C29עובדהhigh confidence

The 10-K says customers buy on purchase orders with no long-term commitments, have cancelled or deferred orders before, and that forecasts have been materially wrong; it also says a chip designed into a customer's product usually stays for that product's life, 24 to 60 months in broadband and 24 to 84 months or more in infrastructure.

sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-06

C09טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

The finance chief says a handful of customers will drive most optical volume over the next six quarters, and that lead times of about 28 weeks give visibility from backlog and bookings.

sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Fourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

The 10-K says customers buy on purchase orders, have cancelled or deferred them before, and that forecasts have been materially wrong (C29).

current state · 2026-07-23written 2026-10-06

פירוט מקורות ההכנסה

מקור	משקל במכירות (הרבעון השני של 2026)	איך
תשתיות	50.4%	שבבי DSP אופטיים מסדרת Keystone למודולים במרכזי נתונים, וכן קישורי backhaul אלחוטיים ושבבים אנלוגיים בביצועים גבוהים, שנמכרים ליצרניות מודולים וציוד.
פס רחב	26.6%	שבבים לנתבי גישה בכבלים, בסיבים ובקו DSL, שנמכרים ליצרניות ציוד שמספקות לחברות הכבלים והתקשורת.
קישוריות	14.2%	שבבי Wi-Fi ו-Ethernet לנתבים, לשערי גישה ולסוויצ׳ים.
תעשייה ושוקים מגוונים	8.9%	שבבי ממשק, חשמל והאצת אחסון לציוד תעשייתי ואחר, לעיתים קרובות דרך מפיצים.

ההנהלה

קישור סנדריפו ייסד את MaxLinear יחד עם אחרים ב-2003 ומנהל אותה מאז. סטיבן ליצ׳פילד הוא סמנכ״ל הכספים מאז 2018. באפריל החזיק המנכ״ל ב-6.0% מהמניות ובעלי העניין יחד ב-7.7%. השכר לטווח ארוך נקבע לפי המכירות ומדד רווח מתואם, לא לפי הרווח אחרי תגמול במניות או הרווח למניה.

באוגוסט מכר המנכ״ל מניות בכ-50 מיליון דולר, כתשיעית מהחזקותיו, מחוץ לכל תוכנית מכירה שנקבעה מראש.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות

C35עובדהhigh confidence

Kishore Seendripu co-founded MaxLinear and has been its chairman, president and chief executive since it began in September 2003; Steven Litchfield has been finance chief and chief strategy officer since July 2018, after a similar role at Microsemi.

sourceDefinitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) for the 2026 annual…primary

current state · 2026-04-02written 2026-10-06

C19עובדהhigh confidence

The April 2026 proxy shows the chief executive owning 6.0% and directors and officers 7.7%, with BlackRock at 13.4% and Vanguard at 10.2%. Long-term awards are half performance units paying on revenue, non-GAAP operating income and revenue growth against the Russell 3000, and half time-vested units; his 2025 salary was $700,000 and his bonus $1.04M.

sourceDefinitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) for the 2026 annual…primary

current state · 2026-04-02written 2026-10-06

C18עובדהhigh confidence

The founder and chief executive, Kishore Seendripu, sold 591,454 shares on 14 and 17 August 2026 at $83.31 to $88.16, about $50M and about a ninth of the 5.43M shares the April proxy gave him; none of the sales was under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. Across the year, 29 of 32 open-market insider sales were discretionary, and no insider bought.

sourceForms 4 filed for Kishore Seendripu, 14 and 17 August 2026,…primary Definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) for the 2026 annual…primary

against this

He still held most of his stake, and a founder selling after a sixfold rise may be diversifying rather than signalling.

historical · 2025-10 to 2026-10written 2026-10-06

02

היתרון התחרותי, ומי מאיים עליו

למה הלקוחות נשארים

אחרי שיצרנית מודולים מטמיעה את Keystone במוצר ולקוחת הענן שלה מאשרת אותו, החלפת שבב פירושה תכנון ובדיקות מחדש, ולכן השבב נשאר בדרך כלל שנים. זו האחיזה של MaxLinear בלקוחותיה.

האחיזה הזו נוגעת לדור אחד בלבד. כל מהירות חדשה היא תחרות תכנון חדשה, ולכן זכייה בחיבורי 800G לא מבטיחה זכייה ב-1.6T. ואנליסטים חיצוניים לא מזכירים את MaxLinear בכלל, ולכן הנתח שלה והיתרון בצריכת החשמל נשענים על דברי ההנהלה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות

C29עובדהhigh confidence

The 10-K says customers buy on purchase orders with no long-term commitments, have cancelled or deferred orders before, and that forecasts have been materially wrong; it also says a chip designed into a customer's product usually stays for that product's life, 24 to 60 months in broadband and 24 to 84 months or more in infrastructure.

sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-06

C30הסקהmedium confidence

MaxLinear's optical position is a design-in won on power: once a module maker qualifies Keystone it tends to stay for that module's life, but each new speed is competed again, so Keystone's 800G wins do not carry over to 1.6T unless Rushmore wins its own sockets.

derivedThe design-in life cycle and purchase-order terms (C29), the power claim (C07), Rushmore needing new qualifications (C10) and its slipped timing (C11).

against this

Management says Keystone's success is the foundation for multigenerational engagements, and a supplier already qualified at a cloud operator may be first in line for the next generation (S07).
Keystone itself began ramping only in 2025 and won share against two incumbents, so the company has shown it can win a generation.

current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-06

C07טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management describes Keystone as a 5-nanometer PAM4 DSP for 400G and 800G optical modules, ramping at major cloud operators in the US and Asia with almost 40% lower power than the competition, and says only three suppliers ship PAM4 DSPs in volume, MaxLinear among them; Broadcom and Marvell are the other two it names.

sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Fourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

Credo, which MaxLinear's own 10-K names as a competitor, also sells optical DSPs to the same module makers (S21).
LightCounting's public summaries and Cignal AI's vendor list do not name MaxLinear; no source outside the company states its share or its power advantage (C33).

current state · 2026-07-23written 2026-10-06

C24עובדהmedium confidence

LightCounting, an industry research firm, says 800G PAM4 chipset shipments nearly tripled in 2025 and expects 1.6T chipset sales above $2 billion in 2026, but expects PAM4 chipset sales growth to moderate in 2027 to 2031 as linear-drive optics, LPO and CPO, cut DSP sales.

sourceLightCounting newsletter - AI Capex Flows Down the Supply…primary

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

C33עובדהhigh confidence

No source outside the company confirms MaxLinear's optical share: Credo's and Marvell's annual reports do not name it among their competitors, LightCounting's and Cignal AI's public summaries do not mention it, and an EDGAR full-text search found no other filer describing its PAM4 DSPs.

sourceCredo Technology Form 10-K for fiscal 2026primary Marvell Technology Form 10-K for fiscal 2026primary LightCounting newsletter - AI Capex Flows Down the Supply…primary Cignal AI press release - Datacom Optical Component Revenue…primary

current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-06

האיום

בשבבים אופטיים MaxLinear מתחרה ב-Broadcom וב-Marvell, החברות הוותיקות, וב-Credo. האיום הגדול יותר הוא תכנון שמוותר על השבב לגמרי: NVIDIA כבר מוכרת סוויצ׳ים עם האופטיקה משולבת בתוכם, ו-LightCounting, חברת מחקר בתחום, צופה שתכנונים כאלה יאטו מ-2027 את מכירות שבבים כמו Keystone. בפס רחב מוכרות Broadcom,‏ Realtek ו-MediaTek שבבים מאותם סוגים.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות

C28עובדהhigh confidence

MaxLinear's 10-K names thirteen merchant chip competitors, among them Broadcom, Marvell, Credo, MACOM, Semtech, Qualcomm, Realtek and MediaTek, and adds internal or vertically integrated engineering groups within its own customers.

sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-06

C07טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management describes Keystone as a 5-nanometer PAM4 DSP for 400G and 800G optical modules, ramping at major cloud operators in the US and Asia with almost 40% lower power than the competition, and says only three suppliers ship PAM4 DSPs in volume, MaxLinear among them; Broadcom and Marvell are the other two it names.

sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Fourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

Credo, which MaxLinear's own 10-K names as a competitor, also sells optical DSPs to the same module makers (S21).
LightCounting's public summaries and Cignal AI's vendor list do not name MaxLinear; no source outside the company states its share or its power advantage (C33).

current state · 2026-07-23written 2026-10-06

C27עובדהmedium confidence

NVIDIA sells switches with the optics built into the switch package, which it says replace pluggable transceivers with five times better power efficiency; it names Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, CoreWeave and Lambda as first adopters and says its Ethernet version has ramped to full production.

sourceNVIDIA silicon photonics (co-packaged optics) product pageprimary

current state · 2026-10-01written 2026-10-06

C24עובדהmedium confidence

LightCounting, an industry research firm, says 800G PAM4 chipset shipments nearly tripled in 2025 and expects 1.6T chipset sales above $2 billion in 2026, but expects PAM4 chipset sales growth to moderate in 2027 to 2031 as linear-drive optics, LPO and CPO, cut DSP sales.

sourceLightCounting newsletter - AI Capex Flows Down the Supply…primary

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

C31הסקהmedium confidence

Linear-drive and co-packaged optics remove the DSP from part of the market MaxLinear sells into, so the optical prize may grow more slowly than the module count; MaxLinear's answer is to sell amplifier chips that work without a DSP.

derivedLightCounting's view that LPO and CPO cut DSP sales (C24), NVIDIA's switches that replace the pluggable module (C27), Cignal's imminent CPO deployments (C26) and management's Washington amplifier for designs without a DSP (C10).

against this

Cignal says nearly all 1.6T modules still ship in configurations that use a DSP, and that 800G demand shows no sign of slowing (C26).
LightCounting expects fully retimed transceivers, the kind that use a DSP, to contribute the largest dollar growth over its forecast (S17).

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

C05עובדהhigh confidence

Broadband revenue fell from $493.2M in 2022 to $116.8M in 2024, recovered to $204.4M in 2025 and was down 5.6% in Q2 2026. Connectivity fell from $303.9M to $55.8M over the same two years. Infrastructure held between $113.9M and $177.1M through the downturn.

sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary Filed revenue split re-keyed by FMP, frozen at…secondary

historical · 2022-Q2 2026written 2026-10-06

המתחרות: AVGO, AVGO, MRVL, CRDO, NVDA, SMTC, MTSI, QCOM, SWKS, TXN, ADI, MCHP, ועוד אחת: פרטית, פיתוח פנימי של לקוחות או נסחרת בחו״ל.

פירוט המתחרים

סימול	מתחרה	תחומי התחרות	שלב	בסיס להשוואה
AVGO	שבבי PAM4 DSP של Broadcomבסיס להשוואה: מוצג, לא נכלל בחישוב	תשתיות	כבר נמכר	מוצגת, לא נספרת
AVGO	שבבי פס רחב ו-Wi-Fi של Broadcom	פס רחב, Wi-Fi ותעשייה	כבר נמכר	מוצגת, לא נספרת
MRVL	שבבי PAM4 DSP של Marvellבסיס להשוואה: כן	תשתיות	כבר נמכר	כן
CRDO	שבבי DSP אופטיים של Credoבסיס להשוואה: כן	תשתיות	כבר נמכר	כן
NVDA	אופטיקה משולבת (co-packaged) ומודולים בהנעה לינארית של NVIDIAבסיס להשוואה: חלק קטן מהפעילות שלה	תשתיות	כבר נמכר	חלק קטן ממנה
	Realtek ו-MediaTekבסיס להשוואה: נסחרות בחו״ל	פס רחב, Wi-Fi ותעשייה	כבר נמכר	נסחרת בחו״ל
SMTC	Semtechבסיס להשוואה: כן	-	כבר נמכר	כן
MTSI	MACOM Technology Solutions Holdingsבסיס להשוואה: כן	-	כבר נמכר	כן
QCOM	QUALCOMM Incorporatedבסיס להשוואה: בתחום אחד בלבד	-	כבר נמכר	בתחום אחד בלבד
SWKS	Skyworks Solutionsבסיס להשוואה: בתחום אחד בלבד	-	כבר נמכר	בתחום אחד בלבד
TXN	Texas Instruments Incorporatedבסיס להשוואה: בתחום אחד בלבד	-	כבר נמכר	בתחום אחד בלבד
ADI	Analog Devicesבסיס להשוואה: בתחום אחד בלבד	-	כבר נמכר	בתחום אחד בלבד
MCHP	Microchip Technologyבסיס להשוואה: בתחום אחד בלבד	-	כבר נמכר	בתחום אחד בלבד

03

פוטנציאל הצמיחה

גודל ההזדמנות

Cignal AI, חברת מחקר בתחום, ספרה כמעט 20 מיליון מודולים אופטיים מהירים שנשלחו ברבעון הראשון של 2026 בלבד, ורובם צריכים שבב כמו Keystone.‏ LightCounting מעריכה שמכירות השבבים למודולי 1.6T החדשים יעברו ב-2026 את 2 מיליארד דולר.

מנגד, MaxLinear צופה מכירות אופטיות של 210 עד 230 מיליון דולר השנה, לפי נתוני ההנהלה עצמה כ-20 עד 25 דולר לשבב. השוק גדול; הנתח של MaxLinear בו אינו פומבי.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C26עובדהmedium confidence

Cignal AI, a second research firm, counts almost 20M high-speed datacom modules shipped in Q1 2026, up 145% on a year earlier; it expects 800G shipments to more than double in 2026 and 1.6T to pass 10M units, nearly all in silicon-photonics configurations, and says co-packaged optics deployments are imminent with Nvidia, Broadcom and TSMC.

sourceCignal AI press release - Datacom Optical Component Revenue…primary

current state · 2026-06-18written 2026-10-06

C24עובדהmedium confidence

LightCounting, an industry research firm, says 800G PAM4 chipset shipments nearly tripled in 2025 and expects 1.6T chipset sales above $2 billion in 2026, but expects PAM4 chipset sales growth to moderate in 2027 to 2031 as linear-drive optics, LPO and CPO, cut DSP sales.

sourceLightCounting newsletter - AI Capex Flows Down the Supply…primary

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

C32אומדןlow confidence

Keystone's forecast implies roughly $20 to $25 a unit: in January management put 2026 at $100M to $130M of revenue and 4M to 6M units, and an analyst on the call did the same arithmetic.

sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

The chief executive rejected the suggestion that MaxLinear wins by pricing low, saying performance decides (S05).
Units and revenue were given separately and may not describe the same mix of 400G and 800G parts.

current state · 2026-01-29written 2026-10-06

C06טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management has raised its 2026 optical data-centre revenue forecast four times: about $100M to $130M for Keystone in January, $150M to $170M in April, $210M to $230M in July and $250M to $270M on the 22 October call, against a run rate it says expands further into 2027.

sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary First quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Second quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

No figure for optical revenue is filed: the 10-Q reports only the Infrastructure category, which also holds wireless backhaul and analog chips.
The shares fell 21.5% the day after the July raise, which suggests the market had already priced more.

2026-10-22editedFourth raise read on the 22 October call (S26): the range moved from $210M-$230M to $250M-$270M.

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

מי כבר התחייב

אף אחד לא חתם על חוזה ארוך. ל-MaxLinear יש זכיות תכנון (design wins) אצל חברות ענן בארה״ב ובאסיה, דרך יצרניות מודולים, וצבר הזמנות של כ-28 שבועות. אפשר לבטל הזמנות, וההנהלה אומרת שקומץ לקוחות יניעו את רוב הכמויות.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C07טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management describes Keystone as a 5-nanometer PAM4 DSP for 400G and 800G optical modules, ramping at major cloud operators in the US and Asia with almost 40% lower power than the competition, and says only three suppliers ship PAM4 DSPs in volume, MaxLinear among them; Broadcom and Marvell are the other two it names.

sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Fourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

Credo, which MaxLinear's own 10-K names as a competitor, also sells optical DSPs to the same module makers (S21).
LightCounting's public summaries and Cignal AI's vendor list do not name MaxLinear; no source outside the company states its share or its power advantage (C33).

current state · 2026-07-23written 2026-10-06

C09טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

The finance chief says a handful of customers will drive most optical volume over the next six quarters, and that lead times of about 28 weeks give visibility from backlog and bookings.

sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Fourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

The 10-K says customers buy on purchase orders, have cancelled or deferred them before, and that forecasts have been materially wrong (C29).

current state · 2026-07-23written 2026-10-06

C29עובדהhigh confidence

The 10-K says customers buy on purchase orders with no long-term commitments, have cancelled or deferred orders before, and that forecasts have been materially wrong; it also says a chip designed into a customer's product usually stays for that product's life, 24 to 60 months in broadband and 24 to 84 months or more in infrastructure.

sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-06

C10טענת ההנהלהlow confidence

Management expects Rushmore, its 1.6T PAM4 DSP, to start producing revenue in 2027: on the 22 October call the chief executive said an initial design win will start shipping in the first half, with the second half set up from it, and a ramp at one or two customers later in the year; its Washington amplifier and Annapurna cable and retimer chips to bring initial revenue in 2027 and a larger ramp in 2028; and a fibre design win at a cloud operator, qualified, to deploy in 2027.

sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

In January the same company expected Rushmore production revenue to start at the end of 2026 (C11).
Nearly all 1.6T optics ship today in one configuration, and Broadcom and Marvell already supply the leading module makers (C26).

2026-10-22editedThe 22 October call (S26) puts the first Rushmore shipments in the first half of 2027, a quarter or two earlier than July's second-half ramp; a management claim, not yet filed.

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

מאיפה מגיעה הצמיחה, לפי פעילות

מאיפה מגיעה הצמיחה

פעילות	משקל בהכנסות	צמיחה ברבעון האחרון	בחצי השנה האחרונה	בשנה האחרונה	משקל בעוד 3 שנים, בקצב של חצי השנה האחרונה
תשתיות	57%	+209.6%	+179.7%	+151.1%	96%
פס רחב, Wi-Fi ותעשייה	43%	+8.2%	+10.5%	+17.3%	4%
החברה כולה	100%	+72.4%	+64.4%	+57.8%	100%

לפי הפילוח המדווח עד 30 בספטמבר 2026: אם כל עסק ישמור על קצב הצמיחה של חצי השנה האחרונה, החברה תצמח בכ-107% בשנה הבאה וב-162% בשנה השלישית, לעומת 50.5% ב-12 החודשים האחרונים. הטיעון נשען על Infrastructure: היא צומחת ב-180%, לעומת 10% בשאר העסקים, ועד אז תהיה 96% מההכנסות. זה תרחיש ולא תחזית: אף עסק לא שומר על הקצב שלו.

איך לקרוא את זה: בציון לקחנו את העסק שנושא את התזה: ה-145% בתשתיות נשענים על הגדלת הייצור של Keystone אצל קומץ לקוחות, בעוד הפס הרחב ירד ב-6%. פחות משנתיים של שיא, ולכן הציון הוא 3 בכל מקרה.

04

התוצאות

המספרים

היא צומחת?מהר

המכירות צמחו ב-56% ב-12 החודשים עד ספטמבר 2026, מהר יותר מ-30% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2025.

היא רווחית?מפסידה

שיעור הרווח התפעולי עומד על ‎−0.9%, לעומת ‎−5.5% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2023.

הצמיחה משתלמת?משתלמת

ההוצאות התפעוליות עומדות על 59 סנט מכל דולר מכירות, לעומת 48 סנט בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2021.

התשואה על ההון גבוהה?נמוכה מאוד

התשואה על ההון העצמי הייתה ‎−5.9% בשנה, לעומת ‎−9.5% בשנה שהסתיימה בדצמבר 2021.

כמה זמן היא יכולה להמשיך?זמן רב

ב-12 החודשים האחרונים היא שרפה 20.6 מיליון דולר במזומן, ולכן 81.1 מיליון הדולר שבקופה מספיקים לכ-3.9 שנים בקצב הזה.

המאזן איתן?מתוח

החוב נטו שלה הוא 83.0 מיליון דולר, והפעילות לא מייצרת מזומנים כדי לפרוע אותו.

בעלי המניות מדוללים?כן

מספר המניות עלה ב-23% ב-4.8 שנים, ותגמול מבוסס מניות עולה 13% מהמכירות.

כל המספרים

נתונים מהדוחות השנתיים (10-K) והרבעוניים (10-Q) של החברה, נקראו ב-22 באוקטובר 2026. שנת הכספים מסתיימת בדצמבר.

	דצמבר 2021	דצמבר 2022	דצמבר 2023	דצמבר 2024	דצמבר 2025	12 חודשים עד ספטמבר 2026
גודל וצמיחה
מכירות	$892M	$1.12B	$693M	$361M	$468M	$661M
צמיחת המכירות	+86%	+26%	−38%	−48%	+30%	+56%
רווח
שיעור הרווח הגולמי	56%	58%	56%	54%	57%	58%
שיעור הרווח התפעולי	7.3%	16%	−5.5%	−62%	−27%	−0.9%
שיעור הרווח הנקי	4.7%	11%	−11%	−68%	−29%	−4.4%
עלות הצמיחה, לכל דולר מכירות
מחקר ופיתוח	31%	26%	39%	62%	45%	34%
הוצאות מכירה, הנהלה וכלליות	17%	15%	19%	38%	34%	25%
תגמול מבוסס מניות	6.7%	7.3%	8.0%	18%	16%	13%
השקעות הוניות	4.4%	3.7%	1.9%	4.9%	2.7%	2.0%
מזומנים
תזרים מפעילות שוטפת	$168M	$389M	$43.4M	−$45.3M	$19.6M	−$7.25M
תזרים מזומנים חופשי	$129M	$347M	$29.9M	−$63.0M	$7.02M	−$20.6M
מאזן
מזומנים והשקעות לזמן קצר	$131M	$206M	$187M	$119M	$72.8M	$81.1M
חוב	$306M	$122M	$122M	$123M	$124M	$164M
מזומן נטו	−$176M	$84.1M	$64.9M	−$4.42M	−$50.8M	−$83.0M
תשואות ומניות
תשואה על ההון המושקע	7.4%	16%	-	-	-	-
מספר המניות (בדילול מלא)	79.7M	80.9M	80.7M	83.6M	86.6M	97.7M

עלות הצמיחה

הצמיחה מוזילה את ניהול החברה לכל מכירה: ההוצאה על מחקר ופיתוח ירדה מ-63 סנט לכל דולר מכירות ב-2024 ל-38 סנט בשנה האחרונה. התגמול במניות עדיין עולה כ-16 סנט לדולר, ועלות המפעלים נמוכה, כי אחרים מייצרים את השבבים.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות

C34עובדהhigh confidence

Costs per sales dollar have fallen as revenue recovered: research was 62.5% of revenue in 2024, 44.6% in 2025 and 37.8% over the four quarters to June 2026; selling and admin 38.4%, 34.1% and 31.3%; stock pay 18.3%, 16.5% and 15.6%. In 2022 research was 26.5% of revenue.

sourceThe filer's XBRL statements 2020 to Q2 2026, frozen at…primary

historical · 2022-Q2 2026written 2026-10-06

C14עובדהhigh confidence

The non-GAAP figures leave out stock pay: Q2 2026 operating expenses carried $27.3M of it plus $9.2M of performance-based equity, and GAAP earnings per share were $0.02 against $0.35 non-GAAP. Over the four quarters to June 2026 stock pay was $88.6M, 15.6% of revenue.

sourceSecond quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary The filer's XBRL statements 2020 to Q2 2026, frozen at…primary

historical · Q3 2025-Q2 2026written 2026-10-06

הדוח האחרון (23 ביולי)

הרבעון שהסתיים ביוני 2026, לפי הדוחות.

55%

צמיחת המכירות

לעומת הרבעון המקביל אשתקד

23.1%

צמיחה לעומת הרבעון הקודם

לעומת 0.6% ברבעון שלפני כן

-2¢

רווח תפעולי

לכל דולר מכירות

המכירות ברבעון השלישי של 2026 היו 218.1 מיליון דולר, עלייה של 72%, בתוך טווח התחזית של 210 עד 220 מיליון דולר ומעל אמצעו. תחום התשתיות, בהובלת שבבי האופטיקה, זינק ב-210% ל-124.9 מיליון דולר ומהווה עכשיו 57% מהמכירות, ואילו הפס הרחב ירד ב-8%. כשסופרים את תגמול העובדים במניות, הרווח התפעולי עמד על 13.9%; לפי המדד המתואם של החברה עצמה, שיעור הרווח היה 29.5%.

ההנהלה העלתה את תחזית 2026 לתחום האופטי ל-250 עד 270 מיליון דולר, וצופה לרבעון הרביעי מכירות של 240 עד 260 מיליון דולר. התזרים מפעילות שוטפת היה שלילי, ‎−13.6 מיליון דולר, כי החברה שילמה מראש ליצרני שבבים עבור הזמנות 2027.

מה זה אומר על התזההדוח עמד במבחן שקבענו: מכירות מעל אמצע התחזית, העלאת התחזית לתחום האופטי ורווח גם אחרי תגמול במניות. הוא לא שינה את מה שהמחיר דורש: מכירות גבוהות בהרבה מהשנה הטובה ביותר של החברה, בשיעור רווח שמעולם לא השיגה.

הרבעון בפירוט

16.2%Q3 25

7.9%Q4 25

0.6%Q1 26

23.1%Q2 26

צמיחת המכירות לעומת הרבעון הקודם, לפי הדוחות.

רווח למניה $0.35 לעומת $0.33 צפוי; $0.02 לפי הדוחות, והפער הוא הסעיפים שהחברה מנטרלת.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C39עובדהhigh confidence

Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $218.1M, up 72% from $126.5M a year earlier and 29% from $168.8M in Q2, inside the $210M-$220M guide. Infrastructure was $124.9M, up 210% and 57% of revenue; Broadband $53.3M, down 8%; Connectivity $24.7M; Industrial and multi-market $15.1M. GAAP gross margin was 58.7% (non-GAAP 60.0%), GAAP operating expenses $97.8M and the GAAP operating margin 13.9%, against 29.5% non-GAAP; GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.30 against $0.62 non-GAAP. No customer was 10% of Q3 revenue; one was 10% and the ten largest 56% of nine-month revenue. Operating cash flow was negative $13.6M in the quarter and negative $17.7M in nine months, after $137.6M of working capital absorbed by wafer prepayments and inventory.

sourceThird quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

Infrastructure also holds wireless backhaul and analog chips, so its 210% is not all optical; the filing gives no optical split (C01).
The GAAP operating profit is about $30M on $218.1M of revenue; stock pay, performance equity and acquisition costs of about $34M make up the gap to the non-GAAP figure, and nine-month operating cash flow is negative.

historical · quarter ended 2026-09-30written 2026-10-22

C14עובדהhigh confidence

The non-GAAP figures leave out stock pay: Q2 2026 operating expenses carried $27.3M of it plus $9.2M of performance-based equity, and GAAP earnings per share were $0.02 against $0.35 non-GAAP. Over the four quarters to June 2026 stock pay was $88.6M, 15.6% of revenue.

sourceSecond quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary The filer's XBRL statements 2020 to Q2 2026, frozen at…primary

historical · Q3 2025-Q2 2026written 2026-10-06

C12עובדהhigh confidence

Third-quarter 2026 guidance was revenue of $210M to $220M, non-GAAP gross margin of 58.5% to 61.5%, GAAP operating expenses of $98M to $104M, non-GAAP operating expenses of $66M to $71M and about 99M diluted shares. The quarter came in at revenue of $218.1M, non-GAAP gross margin of 60.0%, GAAP operating expenses of $97.8M, non-GAAP operating expenses of $66.5M and 97.7M diluted shares against about 99M guided: inside the revenue, non-GAAP gross margin and non-GAAP operating expense ranges, GAAP operating expenses $0.2M under the bottom of theirs, and 1.3M fewer diluted shares than guided.

sourceSecond quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Second quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Third quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

against this

The guide was 27% above Q2 revenue and the quarter landed 29% above it, at the top half of the range; the beat over the vendor's estimate was 1.4% (C22).

2026-10-22editedThe guided quarter was reported: management's forecast tested against the filed Q3 figures (S24) and becomes a fact.

historical · quarter ended 2026-09-30written 2026-10-06

C40טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance is revenue of $240M to $260M, GAAP gross margin of 58% to 61% and non-GAAP 59% to 62%, GAAP operating expenses of $96M to $101M, non-GAAP operating expenses of $65M to $70M, and about 99.7M diluted shares. Management raised its 2026 optical data-centre revenue outlook to $250M-$270M, from $210M-$230M in July, and said on the call that it expects to outgrow the market in 2027 but gave no 2027 figure.

sourceThird quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

The guide is 15% above Q3 revenue at the midpoint; Q3's revenue beat the vendor estimate by 1.4%, a smaller beat than the 2.6% of Q2 that preceded a 21.5% fall (C22).

forwardwritten 2026-10-22

לאן הלך הכסף

ב-2023 הסכימה MaxLinear לרכוש את Silicon Motion, ואז נסוגה מהעסקה. Silicon Motion ממשיכה לתבוע אותה בבוררות על דמי פרישה של 160 מיליון דולר ועוד פיצויים, יותר מהמזומנים של החברה. מאז היא הקטינה את החוב ל-125 מיליון דולר ורכשה בחזרה מניות ב-20 מיליון דולר, אבל השנה משכה 40 מיליון דולר ממסגרת האשראי כדי לשלם מראש על שבבים.

בעלי עניין ברבעון השלישי של 2026: 1 רכישות ו-18 מכירות, לפי דיווחי Form 4 שלהם.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C17עובדהhigh confidence

Silicon Motion is pursuing MaxLinear in Singapore arbitration for the $160M termination fee of the merger MaxLinear walked away from in July 2023, plus further substantial damages, interest and costs. MaxLinear says it terminated properly; the arbitration is confidential and undecided, and a securities class action over the same deal is pending.

sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary Silicon Motion Technology Form 6-K, interim report (Exhibit…primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary

2026-10-22editedRead again in the Q3 10-Q (S24): still confidential and undecided, with no date; no change to the claim.

current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-06

C04עובדהhigh confidence

Revenue was $1,120.3M in 2022 with GAAP operating income of $180.2M, a 16.1% margin, the company's record on both. It then fell to $693.3M in 2023 and $360.5M in 2024, with GAAP operating losses of $38.2M and $223.4M, and GAAP operating income has been negative in every year since.

sourceThe filer's XBRL statements 2020 to Q2 2026, frozen at…primary Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary

historical · 2020-2025written 2026-10-06

C16עובדהhigh confidence

There were 91.0M shares outstanding at 30 September 2026 and 97.7M diluted in Q3, against 73.1M diluted in 2020; management guides about 99.7M for Q4. The company bought back $20M of stock in Q4 2025 and pays no dividend.

sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary Fourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary The filer's XBRL statements 2020 to Q2 2026, frozen at…primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

2026-10-22editedRe-sourced to the Q3 10-Q (S24) and the Q4 guide (S26): shares up from 90.7M to 91.0M.

current state · 2026-07-16written 2026-10-06

C15עובדהhigh confidence

At 30 September 2026 MaxLinear held $81.1M of cash plus $28.8M of restricted cash, owed $125.0M on a term loan due 23 June 2028 and $40.0M drawn on its revolving facility, and on 16 October raised the revolver's commitment by $70M to $200M. Inventory was $113.7M and prepaid expenses $121.6M, against $50.4M at the year end, a build the chief financial officer ties to wafer prepayments for 2027 orders and expects to rise further. Operating cash flow over the first nine months was negative $17.7M and capital spending $9.7M.

sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary Second quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary The filer's XBRL statements 2020 to Q2 2026, frozen at…primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary Form 8-K of 22 October 2026: results release and the third…primary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

2026-10-22editedRe-struck to the Q3 2026 10-Q (S24) and the 16 October amendment (S25): cash up $16.3M, the revolver drawn $40.0M and enlarged, prepayments up.

current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-06

05

המחיר, ואיפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

בקצרה. המחיר מגלם תרחיש מושלם: ההנחה היא ש-MaxLinear תצמח הרבה מעבר לשנה הטובה ביותר שלה ותשיג שיעור רווח שמעולם לא השיגה.

מחיר המניה

$78.82

שער סגירה, 14 באוקטובר

שווי החברה לכל דולר מכירות

17.3

חציון המתחרות: 24.4 · המכפיל המקובל בשש השנים האחרונות: 4.0

המניה ירדה ב-28% בשבועיים עד 21 באוקטובר, מ-105.49 ל-75.79 דולר, לפני פרסום הדוחות. היא עלתה מ-16 דולר ליותר מ-100 בתוך שנה, ולכן המחיר נע בחדות לפי מצב הרוח בשוק.

הדוחות מ-22 באוקטובר עמדו במבחן שקבענו. המבחנים הבאים: דוחות הרבעון הרביעי בפברואר, והאם מכירות ראשונות של שבבי 1.6T יגיעו במחצית הראשונה של 2027, כפי שההנהלה אומרת עכשיו. בספטמבר כתבה LightCounting שצמיחת שוק האופטיקה כנראה בשיאה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C22עובדהhigh confidence

The shares closed at $16.20 on 2 October 2025 and $105.49 on 5 October 2026, up 551%; revenue per share rose 46.8% and the multiple of trailing revenue per share went from 3.7 to 16.5. They peaked at $128.30 on 30 June, fell 21.5% on 24 July after a second quarter 2.6% above the revenue estimate and a raised guide, touched $57.59 on 1 September and rose 50.7% in September.

sourceResearch pack, frozen at content/MXL/research-pack.jsonsecondary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary The filer's XBRL statements 2020 to Q2 2026, frozen at…primary

historical · 2025-10-02 to 2026-10-05written 2026-10-06

C39עובדהhigh confidence

Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $218.1M, up 72% from $126.5M a year earlier and 29% from $168.8M in Q2, inside the $210M-$220M guide. Infrastructure was $124.9M, up 210% and 57% of revenue; Broadband $53.3M, down 8%; Connectivity $24.7M; Industrial and multi-market $15.1M. GAAP gross margin was 58.7% (non-GAAP 60.0%), GAAP operating expenses $97.8M and the GAAP operating margin 13.9%, against 29.5% non-GAAP; GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.30 against $0.62 non-GAAP. No customer was 10% of Q3 revenue; one was 10% and the ten largest 56% of nine-month revenue. Operating cash flow was negative $13.6M in the quarter and negative $17.7M in nine months, after $137.6M of working capital absorbed by wafer prepayments and inventory.

sourceThird quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

Infrastructure also holds wireless backhaul and analog chips, so its 210% is not all optical; the filing gives no optical split (C01).
The GAAP operating profit is about $30M on $218.1M of revenue; stock pay, performance equity and acquisition costs of about $34M make up the gap to the non-GAAP figure, and nine-month operating cash flow is negative.

historical · quarter ended 2026-09-30written 2026-10-22

C10טענת ההנהלהlow confidence

Management expects Rushmore, its 1.6T PAM4 DSP, to start producing revenue in 2027: on the 22 October call the chief executive said an initial design win will start shipping in the first half, with the second half set up from it, and a ramp at one or two customers later in the year; its Washington amplifier and Annapurna cable and retimer chips to bring initial revenue in 2027 and a larger ramp in 2028; and a fibre design win at a cloud operator, qualified, to deploy in 2027.

sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

In January the same company expected Rushmore production revenue to start at the end of 2026 (C11).
Nearly all 1.6T optics ship today in one configuration, and Broadcom and Marvell already supply the leading module makers (C26).

2026-10-22editedThe 22 October call (S26) puts the first Rushmore shipments in the first half of 2027, a quarter or two earlier than July's second-half ramp; a management claim, not yet filed.

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

C25עובדהmedium confidence

LightCounting now expects the Ethernet optical transceiver market to grow 120% in 2026; even in its most optimistic scenario growth falls to 76% in 2027 and 20% by 2031, and it writes that the market must be at the peak of this super-cycle, with growth periods of two to three years historically interrupted by a flat or negative year.

sourceLightCounting newsletter - We Must Be at the Peak of This…primary

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

ההימורספקולציה

אם ההימור מצליח

2.2×

מהשווי היום, בהערכת שווי כמו המתחרות

אם ההימור נכשל

נשארים 30%

משווי השוק היום: שאר החברה והתשתיות במקרה הנמוך ביותר, בניכוי חוב

איך לקרוא את המכפיל

המשקיעים משלמים כ-10.6 מכירות שנתיות, לעומת 16.9 ב-5 באוקטובר. השנה הטובה ביותר של MaxLinear הייתה 2022: מכירות של 1.12 מיליארד דולר, ו-16 סנט רווח תפעולי מכל דולר.

כדי להרוויח 6% בשנה אחרי מס על המחיר של היום, כלל אצבע מקובל, MaxLinear צריכה:

להגיע לרווח תפעולי של כ-530 מיליון דולר בשנה, אחרי תגמול במניות.
למכור בכ-1.8 מיליארד דולר בשנה ולשמור 30 סנט רווח מכל דולר.
זה כפול 1.6 בערך מהשנה הטובה ביותר שלה, ובשיעור רווח כמעט כפול משיאה.

מול ההיסטוריה שלה. יקרה בהרבה מבעבר, כשהייתה חברת שבבים לפס רחב; המחיר הגבוה הוא הימור על העסק האופטי, ולא תוצאה של רווחים שכבר הציגה.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות

C20אומדןmedium confidence

At $75.79 on 21 October 2026 the market value is about $6.90B on 91.0M shares; adding the $125.0M term loan and $40.0M of revolver and taking off $81.1M of cash gives an enterprise value near $6.98B. That is 10.6 times trailing revenue of $660.5M, 8.0 times Q3 revenue annualised, 7.0 times the Q4 guide's midpoint annualised and 7.2 times the vendor panel's 2027 revenue estimate, which predates this print.

sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary The filer's XBRL statements 2020 to Q2 2026, frozen at…primary Research pack, frozen at content/MXL/research-pack.jsonsecondary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary

against this

On the vendor's share count the multiple would be a few tenths higher.
Counting the $28.8M of restricted cash would lower the enterprise value by under 1%.

2026-10-22editedRe-struck at the 21 October close ($75.79, from $105.49 on 5 October) with the Q3 filing's share count, debt, cash and trailing revenue (S24): 10.6 times from 16.9.

current state · 2026-10-21written 2026-10-06

C21אומדןmedium confidence

For a 6% after-tax yield at 21% tax, the $6.98B enterprise value needs about $530M of GAAP operating profit. At a 30% operating margin that is about $1.8B of revenue: about 1.6 times the 2022 record of $1.12B, at nearly twice that year's 16.1% margin, and about 1.4 times the vendor panel's 2029 estimate. Q3's GAAP operating margin was 13.9%.

derived$6.98B (C20) times 6%, divided by 0.79; revenue at a 30% margin, the bottom of management's non-GAAP target range applied to GAAP (C13); the 2022 record from C04; the 2029 estimate of $1.25B from C23, struck before this print; Q3 margin from C39.

against this

A 6% yield is a judgement; at 5% the profit needed falls to about $442M, or $1.5B of revenue at 30%.
Measured on management's non-GAAP basis, which leaves out stock pay, a 35% margin would need about $1.5B of revenue.
The filed rivals trade at a median of about 24 times sales, so the market prices the whole group this way (S16).

2026-10-22editedRe-struck on the C20 enterprise value of $6.98B: the revenue the price needs falls from about $2.4B to about $1.8B because the price fell 28%, not because the business earned more.

current state · 2026-10-21written 2026-10-06

C04עובדהhigh confidence

Revenue was $1,120.3M in 2022 with GAAP operating income of $180.2M, a 16.1% margin, the company's record on both. It then fell to $693.3M in 2023 and $360.5M in 2024, with GAAP operating losses of $38.2M and $223.4M, and GAAP operating income has been negative in every year since.

sourceThe filer's XBRL statements 2020 to Q2 2026, frozen at…primary Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary

historical · 2020-2025written 2026-10-06

C13טענת ההנהלהlow confidence

Management's long-term targets are a 65% gross margin and a 30% to 35% operating margin, both on its non-GAAP basis; the finance chief said on the July call that neither target had changed. The 22 October call did not restate them; the Q3 non-GAAP gross margin was 60.0% and the non-GAAP operating margin 29.5%, and Q4 non-GAAP gross margin is guided to 59% to 62%.

sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

The GAAP record is a 16.1% operating margin, in 2022 (C04), and stock pay runs at 15.6% of revenue, which the non-GAAP basis leaves out (C14).

2026-10-22editedQ3 actuals set beside the targets (S26): non-GAAP gross margin 60.0% against 65%, non-GAAP operating margin 29.5% against 30%-35%; the targets were not restated or withdrawn on the call.

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

המכפיל מול המתחרים

המתחרות שהדוח השנתי של החברה עצמה מונה בשמן, וכל אחת מהן אומתה מול הדוח שלה. מדורגות לפי שווי החברה לכל דולר מכירות, מהזולה ליקרה:

סימול	חברה	שווי החברה לכל דולר מכירות
SMTC	Semtech	15.8×
MXL	MaxLinear	17.3×
MTSI	MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings	22.9×
CRDO	Credo Technology Group Holding	25.9×
MRVL	Marvell Technology	27.2×
AVGO	Broadcom לא בחציון	20.5×

החציון של ארבע החברות האחרות הוא 24.4.‏ Broadcom Inc. מתחרה בה בקו מוצרים אחד בתוך חברה גדולה בהרבה, ולכן המחיר שלה אומר מעט על העסק הזה והיא לא נכללת בחציון. MaxLinear,‏ Inc. היא השנייה בזולות מבין חמש החברות.

נתוני המתחרות מגיעים מספק נתונים, ולכן עדיף להסתכל על טווח הערכים בקבוצה כולה ולא על השוואה בין שתי חברות בלבד.

זולה יותר מהמתחרות באופטיקה, אבל כל הקבוצה תומחרה מחדש בגלל ה-AI, וחצי מהפעילות של MaxLinear היא פס רחב איטי יותר.

מתחרות פרטיות או זרות שאין להן מחיר להשוואה: Realtek,‏ MediaTek,‏ Renesas ויצרניות מודולים משולבות אנכית.

ההימור: מה הוא מניב אם יצליח

ההימור הזה הוא על פעילות אחת: התשתיות, בעיקר השבבים האופטיים. פס רחב, Wi-Fi ותעשייה נספרים בנפרד, במחיר הצנוע שיצרניות שבבים נסחרות בשווקים האלה מקבלות על כל דולר מכירות.

אם התשתיות צומחות בקצב השוק מהקצב של היום ומוערכות כמו המתחרות האופטיות, המניה שווה רק מעט יותר מהיום: הימור יקר. אם האופטיקה נעצרת, בעלי המניות נשארים בעיקר עם המחצית האיטית יותר, חלק קטן מהמחיר של היום.

הכנסות התשתיות בעוד שנתיים עד שלוש	שבבי PAM4 DSP נדרשים	בהערכת שווי כמו המתחרות	כמו הזולה ביותר
$234.72M	כ-10.4 מיליון, בהנחה שהנתח נשמר במלואו	1.0×	0.7×
598.50 מיליון דולר (הזכייה הגדולה)	כ-26.6 מיליון, בהנחה שהנתח נשמר במלואו	2.2×	1.5×
$630.00M	כ-28.0 מיליון, בהנחה שהנתח נשמר במלואו	2.3×	1.5×

כדי להניב 2× (הימור הוגן) היא צריכה הכנסות של כ-549.18 מיליון דולר מתחום התשתיות (כ-24.4 מיליון שבבי PAM4 DSP); כדי להניב 5× (הימור זול), הכנסות של כ-1.46 מיליארד דולר מתחום התשתיות (כ-64.7 מיליון שבבי PAM4 DSP), באותו מכפיל.

כל שורה מציגה את התשתיות בלבד, ובנוסף שאר החברה (פס רחב, Wi-Fi ותעשייה), שנספרת בכ-1.34 מיליארד דולר.

השלבים שעליה לעבור

הושלם תחזית ההכנסות האופטיות ל-2026 עלתה מכ-100 מיליון דולר ל-210 עד 230 מיליון דולר
הושלם הכנסות של 168.8 מיליון דולר ברבעון השני של 2026, עלייה של 55%, ומחציתן מהתשתיות
הושלם הכנסות של 218.1 מיליון דולר ברבעון השלישי של 2026, בתוך טווח התחזית של 210 עד 220 מיליון דולר
בתהליך הכנסות של 250 עד 270 מיליון דולר מהתחום האופטי ב-2026 (התחזית הועלתה באוקטובר מ-210 עד 230 מיליון דולר) עד 31 בינואר 2027
נדחה הכנסות ראשונות מייצור Rushmore 1.6T עד דצמבר 2027
טרם התחיל הגדלת היקפי הייצור של Washington ו-Annapurna עד דצמבר 2028
טרם התחיל רבעון עם שיעור רווח תפעולי חשבונאי (GAAP) של 25% ומעלה עד דצמבר 2027

הפירוט שמאחורי הדירוג

Rating

Fair

the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines

Valued like the cheapest

1.5×

the same success, the lowest comparison

Cheap bet at about

≈ $33.63

‎57% מתחת למחיר (שער סגירה, 14 באוקטובר)

העסק החדש

2.4×

what Infrastructure is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it

הראיות (באנגלית) · 8 טענות

C05עובדהhigh confidence

Broadband revenue fell from $493.2M in 2022 to $116.8M in 2024, recovered to $204.4M in 2025 and was down 5.6% in Q2 2026. Connectivity fell from $303.9M to $55.8M over the same two years. Infrastructure held between $113.9M and $177.1M through the downturn.

sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary Filed revenue split re-keyed by FMP, frozen at…secondary

historical · 2022-Q2 2026written 2026-10-06

C37עובדהmedium confidence

FMP on 2026-10-06 puts Synaptics, which sells Wi-Fi and home-network chips, at 4.2 times company value to trailing sales, Qualcomm at 4.5 and Skyworks at 3.0.

sourceFMP key-metrics-ttm for SYNA, QCOM and SWKS, fetched…secondary

against this

None is a like-for-like broadband chip seller: Qualcomm is mostly handsets, Skyworks mostly radio parts, and Realtek and MediaTek, the closest rivals, list in Taiwan.

current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-06

C03עובדהhigh confidence

Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $168.8M, up 55% on a year earlier and 23% on the first quarter. Infrastructure was $85.0M, up 145% and now half of revenue; Broadband $44.9M, down 6%; Connectivity $24.0M, up 16%; Industrial and multi-market $15.0M, up 158%. GAAP gross margin was 57.8% and the GAAP operating loss $4.2M; non-GAAP operating income was $37.6M, 22.3% of revenue.

sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary Second quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-06

C25עובדהmedium confidence

LightCounting now expects the Ethernet optical transceiver market to grow 120% in 2026; even in its most optimistic scenario growth falls to 76% in 2027 and 20% by 2031, and it writes that the market must be at the peak of this super-cycle, with growth periods of two to three years historically interrupted by a flat or negative year.

sourceLightCounting newsletter - We Must Be at the Peak of This…primary

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

C11עובדהhigh confidence

Rushmore's timing has moved twice: on the January call management expected its production revenue ramp to start at the end of 2026; on the July call it expected revenue to start in 2027, with ramps in the second half of that year; on the 22 October call it said an initial design win would start shipping in the first half of 2027.

sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary Second quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

2026-10-22editedThird dating added from the 22 October call (S26): the first shipments are now expected earlier than July's date but later than January's.

historical · 2026-01 to 2026-10written 2026-10-06

C10טענת ההנהלהlow confidence

Management expects Rushmore, its 1.6T PAM4 DSP, to start producing revenue in 2027: on the 22 October call the chief executive said an initial design win will start shipping in the first half, with the second half set up from it, and a ramp at one or two customers later in the year; its Washington amplifier and Annapurna cable and retimer chips to bring initial revenue in 2027 and a larger ramp in 2028; and a fibre design win at a cloud operator, qualified, to deploy in 2027.

sourceSecond quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

In January the same company expected Rushmore production revenue to start at the end of 2026 (C11).
Nearly all 1.6T optics ship today in one configuration, and Broadcom and Marvell already supply the leading module makers (C26).

2026-10-22editedThe 22 October call (S26) puts the first Rushmore shipments in the first half of 2027, a quarter or two earlier than July's second-half ramp; a management claim, not yet filed.

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

C15עובדהhigh confidence

At 30 September 2026 MaxLinear held $81.1M of cash plus $28.8M of restricted cash, owed $125.0M on a term loan due 23 June 2028 and $40.0M drawn on its revolving facility, and on 16 October raised the revolver's commitment by $70M to $200M. Inventory was $113.7M and prepaid expenses $121.6M, against $50.4M at the year end, a build the chief financial officer ties to wafer prepayments for 2027 orders and expects to rise further. Operating cash flow over the first nine months was negative $17.7M and capital spending $9.7M.

sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary Second quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary The filer's XBRL statements 2020 to Q2 2026, frozen at…primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary Form 8-K of 22 October 2026: results release and the third…primary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

2026-10-22editedRe-struck to the Q3 2026 10-Q (S24) and the 16 October amendment (S25): cash up $16.3M, the revolver drawn $40.0M and enlarged, prepayments up.

current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-06

C17עובדהhigh confidence

Silicon Motion is pursuing MaxLinear in Singapore arbitration for the $160M termination fee of the merger MaxLinear walked away from in July 2023, plus further substantial damages, interest and costs. MaxLinear says it terminated properly; the arbitration is confidential and undecided, and a securities class action over the same deal is pending.

sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary Silicon Motion Technology Form 6-K, interim report (Exhibit…primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary

2026-10-22editedRead again in the Q3 10-Q (S24): still confidential and undecided, with no date; no change to the claim.

current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-06

איפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק

השוק חושב

מנצחת בתחום האופטיקה ל-AI: ההכנסות האופטיות שלה משולשות השנה וממשיכות לצמוח בקצב גבוה עד 2028.

אנחנו חושבים

הזכיות באופטיקה אמיתיות, אבל מכסות דור שבבים אחד, בשוק שקרוב לשיא קצב הצמיחה שלו, לצד מחצית פס רחב ציקלית.

המחיר מגלם עוד כמה שנים של צמיחה מהירה ושיעור רווח גבוה בהרבה. הראיות מכסות דור אחד: השבב הבא התעכב, והאנליסטים מצפים שצמיחת השוק תאט מ-2027.

נטעה אם המכירות הרבעוניות יגיעו ל-300 מיליון דולר עם שיעור רווח תפעולי של 25% אחרי תגמול במניות, ושבב 1.6T יתחיל להימכר בזמן.

מה אומרים האנליסטים

המלצות חיוביות

64%

מתוך 11, 1 באוקטובר

לפני ארבעה חודשים

64%

מתוך 11, 1 ביוני

הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות

C23עובדהmedium confidence

The vendor's snapshot counts 11 Buy and 6 Hold ratings; its dated series shows 63.6% positive of 11 analysts, up from 36.4% in February. Average revenue estimates are $738.8M for 2026, $964.2M for 2027 with adjusted earnings of $2.70 a share, $1.16B for 2028 and $1.25B for 2029. Short interest was 5.7% of the float on 15 September.

sourceResearch pack, frozen at content/MXL/research-pack.jsonsecondary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary

2026-10-22editedRefresh date rolled: the panel's estimates and ratings predate the 22 October print and have not yet been updated by the vendor; figures unchanged.

current state · 2026-10-05written 2026-10-06

C06טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management has raised its 2026 optical data-centre revenue forecast four times: about $100M to $130M for Keystone in January, $150M to $170M in April, $210M to $230M in July and $250M to $270M on the 22 October call, against a run rate it says expands further into 2027.

sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary First quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Second quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

No figure for optical revenue is filed: the 10-Q reports only the Infrastructure category, which also holds wireless backhaul and analog chips.
The shares fell 21.5% the day after the July raise, which suggests the market had already priced more.

2026-10-22editedFourth raise read on the 22 October call (S26): the range moved from $210M-$230M to $250M-$270M.

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

C21אומדןmedium confidence

For a 6% after-tax yield at 21% tax, the $6.98B enterprise value needs about $530M of GAAP operating profit. At a 30% operating margin that is about $1.8B of revenue: about 1.6 times the 2022 record of $1.12B, at nearly twice that year's 16.1% margin, and about 1.4 times the vendor panel's 2029 estimate. Q3's GAAP operating margin was 13.9%.

derived$6.98B (C20) times 6%, divided by 0.79; revenue at a 30% margin, the bottom of management's non-GAAP target range applied to GAAP (C13); the 2022 record from C04; the 2029 estimate of $1.25B from C23, struck before this print; Q3 margin from C39.

against this

A 6% yield is a judgement; at 5% the profit needed falls to about $442M, or $1.5B of revenue at 30%.
Measured on management's non-GAAP basis, which leaves out stock pay, a 35% margin would need about $1.5B of revenue.
The filed rivals trade at a median of about 24 times sales, so the market prices the whole group this way (S16).

2026-10-22editedRe-struck on the C20 enterprise value of $6.98B: the revenue the price needs falls from about $2.4B to about $1.8B because the price fell 28%, not because the business earned more.

current state · 2026-10-21written 2026-10-06

C04עובדהhigh confidence

Revenue was $1,120.3M in 2022 with GAAP operating income of $180.2M, a 16.1% margin, the company's record on both. It then fell to $693.3M in 2023 and $360.5M in 2024, with GAAP operating losses of $38.2M and $223.4M, and GAAP operating income has been negative in every year since.

sourceThe filer's XBRL statements 2020 to Q2 2026, frozen at…primary Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary

historical · 2020-2025written 2026-10-06

C24עובדהmedium confidence

LightCounting, an industry research firm, says 800G PAM4 chipset shipments nearly tripled in 2025 and expects 1.6T chipset sales above $2 billion in 2026, but expects PAM4 chipset sales growth to moderate in 2027 to 2031 as linear-drive optics, LPO and CPO, cut DSP sales.

sourceLightCounting newsletter - AI Capex Flows Down the Supply…primary

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

C11עובדהhigh confidence

Rushmore's timing has moved twice: on the January call management expected its production revenue ramp to start at the end of 2026; on the July call it expected revenue to start in 2027, with ramps in the second half of that year; on the 22 October call it said an initial design win would start shipping in the first half of 2027.

sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary Second quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

2026-10-22editedThird dating added from the 22 October call (S26): the first shipments are now expected earlier than July's date but later than January's.

historical · 2026-01 to 2026-10written 2026-10-06

06

מה יכול להשתבש, ואיך נדע

הסיכונים

תביעת בוררות. Silicon Motion תובעת תשלום של 160 מיליון דולר בתוספת פיצויים, יותר מהמזומנים של MaxLinear, בהחלטה אחת שטרם ניתנה.
אופטיקה בלי השבב. תכנונים שמוותרים על ה-DSP עלולים להאט מ-2027 את מכירות שבבים מסוג Keystone.
הדור הבא מתעכב. שבב ה-1.6T נדחה מסוף 2026 ל-2027, וכל מהירות חדשה היא תחרות חדשה.
הפס הרחב נחלש שוב. מחצית החברה הזו התכווצה בשני שלישים בין 2022 ל-2024.
משלוחים דרך אסיה. שלושה רבעים מהמוצרים נשלחים להונג קונג, לסין ולווייטנאם, ולכן חשופים לכללי סחר.
המייסד מוכר. המנכ״ל מכר מניות בכ-50 מיליון דולר באוגוסט, מחוץ לתוכנית מכירה שנקבעה מראש.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 6 טענות

C17עובדהhigh confidence

Silicon Motion is pursuing MaxLinear in Singapore arbitration for the $160M termination fee of the merger MaxLinear walked away from in July 2023, plus further substantial damages, interest and costs. MaxLinear says it terminated properly; the arbitration is confidential and undecided, and a securities class action over the same deal is pending.

sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary Silicon Motion Technology Form 6-K, interim report (Exhibit…primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary

2026-10-22editedRead again in the Q3 10-Q (S24): still confidential and undecided, with no date; no change to the claim.

current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-06

C24עובדהmedium confidence

LightCounting, an industry research firm, says 800G PAM4 chipset shipments nearly tripled in 2025 and expects 1.6T chipset sales above $2 billion in 2026, but expects PAM4 chipset sales growth to moderate in 2027 to 2031 as linear-drive optics, LPO and CPO, cut DSP sales.

sourceLightCounting newsletter - AI Capex Flows Down the Supply…primary

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

C11עובדהhigh confidence

Rushmore's timing has moved twice: on the January call management expected its production revenue ramp to start at the end of 2026; on the July call it expected revenue to start in 2027, with ramps in the second half of that year; on the 22 October call it said an initial design win would start shipping in the first half of 2027.

sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary Second quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

2026-10-22editedThird dating added from the 22 October call (S26): the first shipments are now expected earlier than July's date but later than January's.

historical · 2026-01 to 2026-10written 2026-10-06

C05עובדהhigh confidence

Broadband revenue fell from $493.2M in 2022 to $116.8M in 2024, recovered to $204.4M in 2025 and was down 5.6% in Q2 2026. Connectivity fell from $303.9M to $55.8M over the same two years. Infrastructure held between $113.9M and $177.1M through the downturn.

sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary Filed revenue split re-keyed by FMP, frozen at…secondary

historical · 2022-Q2 2026written 2026-10-06

C08עובדהhigh confidence

No customer was 10% of Q3 2026 revenue and one was 10% of the first nine months; the ten largest customers were 56% of nine-month revenue. A year earlier Customer A was 18% of Q3 and 17% of nine months and Customer B 11% and 13%. In 2025 two customers were 28% of revenue and the top ten 65%. Distributors handled 48% of Q3 revenue against 36% a year earlier.

sourceForm 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary

2026-10-22editedRe-sourced to the Q3 2026 10-Q (S24): concentration eased further; the Q2 geography split was dropped as no longer current.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-06

C18עובדהhigh confidence

The founder and chief executive, Kishore Seendripu, sold 591,454 shares on 14 and 17 August 2026 at $83.31 to $88.16, about $50M and about a ninth of the 5.43M shares the April proxy gave him; none of the sales was under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. Across the year, 29 of 32 open-market insider sales were discretionary, and no insider bought.

sourceForms 4 filed for Kishore Seendripu, 14 and 17 August 2026,…primary Definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) for the 2026 annual…primary

against this

He still held most of his stake, and a founder selling after a sixfold rise may be diversifying rather than signalling.

historical · 2025-10 to 2026-10written 2026-10-06

שאלות פתוחות

נתח השוק של MaxLinear בשבבי DSP אופטיים, והמחיר של כל שבב. את זה אומר רק דוח תעשייה בתשלום.
מתי תוכרע הבוררות, ובאיזה סכום. ההליכים חסויים.
איזה חלק מהתשתיות הוא אופטי. החברה מדווחת רק על הסך הכול.

הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות

C33עובדהhigh confidence

No source outside the company confirms MaxLinear's optical share: Credo's and Marvell's annual reports do not name it among their competitors, LightCounting's and Cignal AI's public summaries do not mention it, and an EDGAR full-text search found no other filer describing its PAM4 DSPs.

sourceCredo Technology Form 10-K for fiscal 2026primary Marvell Technology Form 10-K for fiscal 2026primary LightCounting newsletter - AI Capex Flows Down the Supply…primary Cignal AI press release - Datacom Optical Component Revenue…primary

current state · 2026-10-06written 2026-10-06

C17עובדהhigh confidence

Silicon Motion is pursuing MaxLinear in Singapore arbitration for the $160M termination fee of the merger MaxLinear walked away from in July 2023, plus further substantial damages, interest and costs. MaxLinear says it terminated properly; the arbitration is confidential and undecided, and a securities class action over the same deal is pending.

sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026primary Silicon Motion Technology Form 6-K, interim report (Exhibit…primary Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026primary

2026-10-22editedRead again in the Q3 10-Q (S24): still confidential and undecided, with no date; no change to the claim.

current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-06

C06טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence

Management has raised its 2026 optical data-centre revenue forecast four times: about $100M to $130M for Keystone in January, $150M to $170M in April, $210M to $230M in July and $250M to $270M on the 22 October call, against a run rate it says expands further into 2027.

sourceFourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcriptprimary First quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Second quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary

against this

No figure for optical revenue is filed: the 10-Q reports only the Infrastructure category, which also holds wireless backhaul and analog chips.
The shares fell 21.5% the day after the July raise, which suggests the market had already priced more.

2026-10-22editedFourth raise read on the 22 October call (S26): the range moved from $210M-$230M to $250M-$270M.

forwardwritten 2026-10-06

מה ישנה את ההערכה שלנו

לא אטרקטיבית→ניטרליתמחיר נמוך יותר על עסק שלא השתנה
בתנאי ש:
- ○שווי החברה כולה יורד ל-8 פעמים המכירות של השנה האחרונה, כשהעסק עצמו לא משתנה.בערך ‎≈$57.20 במחירי היום, 27% מתחת לסגירה האחרונה
לא אטרקטיבית→ניטרליתהדור הבא מנצח ושיעור הרווח מגיע
נדרשים כל אלה:
- ○מכירות רבעוניות של 300 מיליון דולר ומעלה.ייבדק בדוחות הבאים, עד 4 בפברואר
- ○רבעון עם רווח תפעולי של 25 סנט לכל דולר מכירות, אחרי תגמול במניות.ייבדק בדוחות הבאים, עד 4 בפברואר
- ○שבב ה-1.6T נמכר בהיקפים גדולים אצל שני לקוחות או יותר.ייבדק בזמן אמת

נטעה גם אם

המכירות מהתחום האופטי ב-2026 יורדות מתחת ל-250 מיליון דולר, הרף התחתון בטווח שההנהלה נתנה באוקטובר.
LightCounting מורידה את תחזית הצמיחה שלה למודולים אופטיים ב-2027 אל מתחת ל-30%.
הבוררות פוסקת לחברת Silicon Motion סכום גבוה מהמזומנים של MaxLinear.

מה בהמשך

4 בפברואר 2027 דוחות הרבעון הרביעי של 2026 ודוח ה-10-K לשנת 2026: ההכנסות לעומת התחזית של 240 עד 260 מיליון דולר, האם ההכנסות מהתחום האופטי ב-2026 הגיעו לטווח המוגדל של 250 עד 270 מיליון דולר, התוצאה התפעולית החשבונאית (GAAP) של השנה, וכל עדכון בעניין הבוררות.

כל האירועים הצפויים

4 בפברואר 2027 דוחות הרבעון הרביעי של 2026 ודוח ה-10-K לשנת 2026: ההכנסות לעומת התחזית של 240 עד 260 מיליון דולר, האם ההכנסות מהתחום האופטי ב-2026 הגיעו לטווח המוגדל של 250 עד 270 מיליון דולר, התוצאה התפעולית החשבונאית (GAAP) של השנה, וכל עדכון בעניין הבוררות.
יוני 2027 הכנסות ראשונות מייצור Rushmore 1.6T: האם הזכייה הראשונה בתכנון, שלפי ההנהלה תיכנס לייצור במחצית הראשונה של 2027, אכן מתממשת, והאם MaxLinear תזכה במעגלים של המהירות הבאה או שהמעמד של Keystone ייגמר ב-800G.
23 ביוני 2028 מועד פירעון ההלוואה לזמן קצוב: האם 125 מיליון דולר ייפרעו מתזרים המזומנים או ימומנו מחדש.

מה קרה מאז

נכתבה

6 באוקטובר

המחיר בעת כתיבת התזה

$105.49

5 באוקטובר

שער סגירה אחרון

$78.82

שער סגירה, 14 באוקטובר · ‎-25.3% מאז

22 באוקטוברדוחותעקיפה ברבעון השלישי והעלאה רביעית בתחזית האופטית; הציון נשאר לא אטרקטיביתמכירות של 218.1 מיליון דולר עקפו את אמצע התחזית, והתחזית לתחום האופטי עלתה ל-250 עד 270 מיליון דולר, אבל המחיר עדיין דורש הכנסות של כ-1.8 מיליארד דולר בשיעור רווח של 30%.
15 באוקטוברשינוי בהימורההימור תומחר מחדש: מ"המחיר כבר מגלם הצלחה" ל"ספקולציה"תומחר מחדש לפי שער הסגירה של 14 באוקטובר; הדירוג עבר מהימור יקר להימור הוגן.
6 באוקטוברהתזה נכתבהלא אטרקטיבית, ביטחון בינוניהשבבים האופטיים אכן זוכים בעסקאות של ממש, אבל כדי להצדיק את המחיר החברה צריכה שנה כפולה מהשנה הטובה ביותר שלה, ועם שיעור רווח שמעולם לא השיגה.

נבדקה גם פעמיים, ללא ממצא חדש שמצריך פעולה.

מקורות 24

Where this came from

Sources - 24

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

S01primarycompany filing2026-01-29
Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025
business, revenue by category, competitors, customer concentration, design-in life cycles, purchase-order terms, headcount, risk factors
backsC01C02C04C05C08C28C29C36
S02primarycompany filing2026-01-29
Fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)
full-year 2025 figures and the Q1 2026 guide
backsC02
S03primarycompany filing2026-07-23
Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026
revenue by category, concentration, shipment geography, balance sheet, debt, share count, the Silicon Motion dispute
backsC01C03C08C15C16C17C20C22C23
S04primarycompany filing2026-07-23
Second quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)
Q3 guidance and the non-GAAP reconciliation
backsC03C12C14
S05primarytranscript2026-01-29
Fourth quarter 2025 earnings call transcript
the first 2026 optical forecast, the 4M to 6M unit figure and the pricing exchange, Rushmore's first date, lead times, the buyback
we expect Keystone to generate about $100 million to $130 million in revenue in '26 with potential upside along with a further step function increase in run rate as we move into 2027. ... We expect Rushmore production revenue ramp starting at the end of 2026. ... this year, we could do anywhere between 4 million to 6 million units of PAM4 transceivers ... As you know, we've got 28-week lead times.
backsC06C07C09C11C16C32
S06primarytranscript2026-04-23
First quarter 2026 earnings call transcript
the second optical forecast and the first fibre design win at a cloud operator
we are increasing our expectations for 2026 optical data center revenue to $150 million to $170 million range.
backsC06
S07primarytranscript2026-07-23
Second quarter 2026 earnings call transcript
the third optical forecast, Keystone's power claim, the three-player claim, Rushmore's new date, the handful of customers, the long-term margin targets; analyst questions from Stifel, Susquehanna, Northland and Benchmark
we are once again raising our expectations for 2026 optical data center revenue to be between $210 million to $230 million with continued growth as run rates expand into 2027. Keystone, our 100-gigabit per lane 5-nanometer CMOS PAM4 DSP and SerDes technology continues to ramp into high-volume production at major hyperscale customers across U.S. and Asia for 400-gig and 800-gig deployments, delivering almost 40% lower consumption in power than competition ... We expect Rushmore, our 1.6 terabit optical PAM4 DSP at 200 gigabit per lane speeds to become an important optical connectivity growth driver beginning in 2027 ... For both Annapurna and Washington, we expect initial revenue in 2027, followed by a more meaningful volume ramp in 2028. ... there are only 3 players right now, and we are one of them.
backsC06C07C09C10C11C12C13C15
S10primarycompany filing2026-04-02
Definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) for the 2026 annual meeting
biographies, beneficial ownership, pay design and 2025 pay
backsC18C19C35
S12primarycompany filing2026-10-06
The filer's XBRL statements 2020 to Q2 2026, frozen at content/MXL/financials.json
revenue, margins, cost lines, stock pay, cash flow and diluted shares by year and for the trailing four quarters
backsC04C14C15C16C20C22C34
S13secondaryvendor data2026-10-06
Filed revenue split re-keyed by FMP, frozen at content/MXL/segment-history.json
revenue by category for 2020 to 2025 and each quarter, checked against filed revenue
backsC05
S14primarycompany filing2026-08-10
Silicon Motion Technology Form 6-K, interim report (Exhibit 99.2) Silicon Motion Technology
the claimant's own account of the arbitration and what it seeks
backsC17
S15primarycompany filing2026-08-18
Forms 4 filed for Kishore Seendripu, 14 and 17 August 2026, read through insider_fetch.py
each sale's size, price and Rule 10b5-1 flag, and a year of insider transactions
backsC18
S16secondaryvendor data2026-10-06
Research pack, frozen at content/MXL/research-pack.json
price, returns, decomposition, analyst panel and estimates, earnings history, FINRA short interest, the competitors:filed cohort
backsC20C22C23
S17primaryindustry data2026-02-26
LightCounting newsletter - AI Capex Flows Down the Supply Chain to DSP Vendors (PAM4 and Coherent DSPs report, February 2026, updated April 2026) LightCounting
the analyst's view of the DSP market, its 1.6T size and the threat from linear-drive optics; read through ir_fetch
In 2025, hyperscalers' massive investments in AI infrastructure caused 800G PAM4 chipset shipments to nearly triple, with sales more than doubling year over year. ... Sales of 1.6T chipsets will exceed $2 billion in 2026 and grow rapidly through 2029. ... fully retimed Ethernet transceivers will still contribute the largest dollar growth, followed by active cables and linear optics (LPO/LRO/CPO). ... We expect that growth in sales of PAM4 chipsets will moderate in 2027-2031, as volume deployments of linear-drive solutions (LPO and CPO) will negatively impact DSP sales.
backsC24C33
S18primaryindustry data2026-09-30
LightCounting newsletter - We Must Be at the Peak of This Super-cycle (Ethernet Optics report, September 2026) LightCounting
the market's growth path and the warning that a flat year follows each growth period; read through ir_fetch
We now expect 120% growth in the Ethernet optical transceiver market for 2026 ... Even in this scenario, we assume that the market growth rate will decline from 120% in 2026 to 76% in 2027 and 20% by 2031. We must be at the peak of this super-cycle in terms of growth rate. ... growth periods of 2-3 years are interrupted by a flat or negative year.
backsC25
S19primaryindustry data2026-06-18
Cignal AI press release - Datacom Optical Component Revenue Doubles to $7.7 Billion in 1Q26 Cignal AI
an independent unit count for the modules the DSPs go into, and the CPO timetable; read through ir_fetch
High-speed (400G+) datacom module shipments set a record; up 145% year-over-year. ... Almost 20 million modules shipped in the quarter as AI build-outs accelerated. 800GbE now accounts for the majority of high-speed datacom module shipments, and unit shipments will more than double in 2026. ... 1.6TbE module shipments grew 50% sequentially and will exceed 10 million units in 2026. Nearly all 1.6TbE optics currently ship in DR (silicon photonics) configurations. ... CPO deployments are imminent with Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC advancing 200G/lane platforms.
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S20primaryother2026-10-01
NVIDIA silicon photonics (co-packaged optics) product page NVIDIA
the attacker's own account of what it replaces and who has adopted it; the quote frozen by the AAOI thesis
Replacing pluggable transceivers with silicon photonics on the same package as the ASIC, NVIDIA CPO innovations provide 5x better power efficiency ... Design simplicity and power efficiency drives CoreWeave, Lambda, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure as first adopters. ... Spectrum-X Ethernet Photonics Ramps to Full Production
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S21primarycompany filing2026-06-23
Credo Technology Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 Credo Technology Group
a rival selling optical DSPs to the same buyers; its competition section names Broadcom, Marvell and Astera Labs and not MaxLinear
We sell our products to hyperscalers, Neoclouds, OEMs, ODMs, CMs and optical module manufacturers, as well as into the enterprise and HPC markets.
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S22primarycompany filing2026-03-11
Marvell Technology Form 10-K for fiscal 2026 Marvell Technology
the incumbent DSP seller's own filing; its 24-name competitor list does not include MaxLinear
We are a fabless supplier of high-performance semiconductor products with core strengths in developing and scaling complex System-on-a-Chip architectures
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S23secondaryvendor data2026-10-06
FMP key-metrics-ttm for SYNA, QCOM and SWKS, fetched 2026-10-06 Financial Modeling Prep
trailing company-value-to-sales for listed sellers of Wi-Fi, broadband and radio chips, through scripts/api/fmp.py
SYNA evToSalesTTM 4.24 enterpriseValueTTM 5.08B; QCOM evToSalesTTM 4.54 enterpriseValueTTM 199.97B; SWKS evToSalesTTM 3.02 enterpriseValueTTM 12.13B
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S24primarycompany filing2026-10-22
Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026
Q3 and nine-month revenue by category, customer concentration, balance sheet, debt and the October credit amendment, share count, the Silicon Motion note
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S25primarycompany filing2026-10-22
Form 8-K of 22 October 2026: results release and the third credit-agreement amendment
the Item 1.01 amendment raising the revolver to $200M and the Item 2.02 results
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S26primarytranscript2026-10-22
Third quarter 2026 earnings call transcript
Q3 revenue and margins, the fourth optical raise, the Q4 guide, Rushmore's first-half 2027 design win, prepayments for 2027 wafers; analyst questions from Stifel, Loop, Stonex, Susquehanna, BNP Paribas, Needham, Northland and Wells Fargo
Reflecting this momentum, we are raising our 26 optical data server revenue outlook to $250 million to $270 million. ... We currently expect revenue in the fourth quarter of 26 to be between $240 million and $260 million ... there is an initial design win that will start shipping in the first half.
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S27primarycompany filing2026-10-22
Third quarter 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)
Q3 revenue, GAAP and non-GAAP margins and earnings per share, the Q4 guide
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