Broadcom
Broadcom הופכת את שבבי ה-AI ש-Google, Anthropic, OpenAI ו-Meta מתכננות לעצמן לסיליקון עובד, ומוכרת את שבבי הרשת שמחברים ביניהם אלפים מהם.
הציון שלנואטרקטיבית ביטחון בינוני
הציונים
ציונים · 1-4
צמיחה3/4 ↑
ההכנסות עלו ב-86%, כולן אורגניות, אבל הצמיחה מצטמצמת למנוע אחד, וחלקם של חמשת הלקוחות הגדולים עלה מ-40% ל-55% בתוך שנה.
איכות העסק3/4 →
הסכמים שדווחו לרשויות עד 2031, ולקוח שמזכיר לזכותה תהליך תכנון שהגיע לייצור תוך תשעה חודשים. מנגד, Google מפצלת דור אחד של שבבים בין שני ספקים, ו-NVIDIA מממנת עכשיו את הספקית החלופית.
איתנות פיננסית3/4 ↑
חוב נטו של 37 מיליארד דולר מכוסה פעמים רבות בתזרים המזומנים ומפוזר על פני שבע שנים, אבל מאחוריו עומדות מסגרת גיבוי שלא נוצלה ומסגרת שטרות.
יכולת ביצוע4/4 →
כל דוח בחבילה היה מעל התחזיות, תחזית ה-AI הועלתה ו-VMware עמדה בציפיות. הפגם היחיד הוא ההיפוך ביוני, מארונות שרתים שלמים לשבבים בלבד.
ערך לבעלי המניות3/4 →
רכישות חוזרות של 8.45 מיליארד דולר רק קיזזו 6.3 מיליארד דולר של תגמול במניות, ולכן מספר המניות נשאר יציב ולא יורד. שום דבר לא ניתן להמרה, והעסקאות הגדולות כבר מאחוריה.
פוטנציאל3/4 ↑
ההכפלה הקרובה שהאספקה שלה נרכשה, ההסכם החתום עם Google עד 2031 ומנת מימון שנסגרה הם מחויבים. ההכפלה ב-2028 והג'יגה-וואטים של המעבדות הם בגדר צפי.
רמת סיכון2/4 ↓
שני ריכוזים ולא אחד: חמישה לקוחות אחראים ל-55% מהמכירות, ודמי השכירות של הלקוח הגדול ביותר בתוכניות מובטחים בערבות של Broadcom, והיא עשויה גם להלוות לו את הכסף.
תמחור3/4 ↑
מכפיל של 19 על הרווח שהתחזית לשנה הבאה מרמזת עליו מגלם את ההכפלה ב-2027 כפי שתוארה, ולא כלום עבור 2028. 44 פעמים הרווח המדווח אינו זול.
חוזק הראיות3/4 →
כל הנתונים המרכזיים מופיעים בדיווחים הרשמיים או בהודעה של הלקוח עצמו. התחזית ל-2027 ול-2028 וערך השבבים לכל ג'יגה-וואט קיימים רק בשיחת הדוחות.
ההימור · שנתיים עד שלוש
המחיר כבר מגלם הצלחה1.6×
אם זה מצליח: פי 1.6 · אם זה נכשל: נשארים כ-60%.
השורה התחתונה
הציון שלנו: אטרקטיבית. Broadcom הופכת את שבבי ה-AI ש-Google, Anthropic ואחרות מתכננות לסיליקון עובד, ומוכרת את שבבי הרשת שמחברים ביניהם. הפעילות הזאת גדלה ביותר מפי שלושה בתוך שנה, ולכן העסק טוב. המחיר רגיל ביחס לרווח הצפוי בשנה הבאה ולא מגלם דבר מהצמיחה שאחריה, ולכן הוא הוגן. כהימור היא שבירה: בערך פי אחד וחצי מהכסף אם מכירות ה-AI יגיעו למה שההנהלה רואה לפניה, ומעט יותר ממחצית ההשקעה נשארת אם הקמת התשתיות תיעצר. המכירות בשנה הבאה מגובות בחוזים יותר ממה שהמחיר משקף, אם כי הלקוחות הגדולים ביותר בתוכניות מפסידים כסף.
הטיעון לטווח הארוךבוני ה-AI הגדולים רוצים שבבים שתוכננו לעבודה שלהם, ו-Broadcom בונה אותם איתם לאורך שנים, ולכן כל מרכז נתונים חדש שהם מפעילים קונה ממנה עוד.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 9 טענות
C01עובדהhigh confidence
Broadcom reports two segments. In Q3 fiscal 2026 semiconductor solutions was $20,839M, 70% of revenue, and infrastructure software $8,752M, 30%. Inside semiconductors, AI semiconductor revenue was $16.7B, 56% of total revenue, of which custom accelerators were 73% and AI networking the rest; non-AI semiconductors were $4.2B.
C04טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says fiscal 2027 AI semiconductor revenue will be approximately $115B with supply already secured and demand exceeding that, and that it has line of sight to approximately $230B in fiscal 2028, again with supply secured; it will not update these figures quarterly. It says it is on target to exceed $30 of earnings per share in fiscal 2028, that content runs $20B to $30B per gigawatt, that about 10 gigawatts ship in fiscal 2027 and that the 30 gigawatts its six customers have outlined for 2027 and 2028 will not all be deployed inside those years.
against this
- Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon computed $11B to $12B of revenue per gigawatt from the same outlook and gigawatt count, against management's $20B to $30B; management's answer was that not every gigawatt outlined will deploy inside the fiscal year.
- Roughly six of the ten fiscal 2027 gigawatts belong to Anthropic and OpenAI, whose deployments Broadcom is financing through a platform whose first tranche covers about 1 gigawatt; the second has not closed.
- In June the same management held the fiscal 2026 AI figure at $56B while analysts modelled above $60B, and said it would ship chips rather than the racks it had previously described.
C05עובדהhigh confidence
At August 2, 2026 Broadcom carried $126,821M of unconditional purchase commitments, enforceable and legally binding, primarily for inventory: $1,110M for the rest of fiscal 2026, $52,674M for fiscal 2027, $72,952M for fiscal 2028 and $85M after.
C23אומדןmedium confidence
At $357.61 the shares cost about 30.8 times fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings of about $11.6 a share - $7.81 reported over nine months plus about $3.8 implied by the Q4 guide of $34.8B at a 66% operating margin, $0.7B of interest, a 16% tax rate and 4.94 billion diluted shares - about 19.3 times the roughly $18.5 a share that the $115B fiscal 2027 AI outlook implies with non-AI semiconductor and software revenue flat at about $17B and $35B a year on the same margin and tax rate, and under 12 times the more than $30 management targets for fiscal 2028. Every one of those is below the six-year median trailing multiple of 43.4.
derivedC02, C03, C04, C19, C20 and C22: the reported nine-month adjusted earnings, the Q4 guide, the fiscal 2027 AI outlook, the guided share count and the closing price. Non-AI semiconductor revenue is annualised from the Q4 guide of $4.3B and software from $8.7B.
against this
- The adjusted basis excludes about $8B a year of stock compensation, roughly $1.65 a share, so on a basis that expenses it the fiscal 2027 multiple is nearer 22.
- The fiscal 2027 figure assumes the 66% operating margin survives another year of accelerator mix that management will not guide beyond one quarter.
- The panel's fiscal 2028 estimate of $30.58 matches management's, so the market already carries the number; the low multiple prices doubt about its quality and durability rather than ignorance of it.
C36הסקהmedium confidence
Broadcom's largest planned customer for 2027 is a company whose rent Broadcom guarantees and may fund: the backstop covers 85% of Anthropic's outstanding lease amounts less recoveries up to $29 billion, and Anthropic may issue Broadcom up to $42 billion of convertible notes to meet those same lease payments. Anthropic's ability to pay rests on its own revenue growth and fundraising, and Broadcom's own 8-K conditions the capacity on Anthropic's continued commercial success. On October 26 a second, $63 billion structure for Anthropic was announced in which Broadcom gives residual value support equal to the first lien amount (C51); how much that adds to the $29B backstop is not stated.
derivedC07, C08, C09 and C15: the 10-Q's backstop and convertible-note terms, the platform's purpose as stated by Broadcom and Apollo, Anthropic's own revenue statement, and management's customer ranking. and C51: the lenders' October 26 release.
against this
- Anthropic states run-rate revenue above $30 billion from about $9 billion at the end of 2025 and raised $30 billion in February 2026, and management says it is well on its way to a public listing that would change its credit.
- The fair value of the backstop is stated as not material, no notes have been issued, and Apollo and Blackstone underwrote the $35 billion without Broadcom lending a dollar.
- Only two of six customers use the platform; the other four are, in management's words, financially secure enough to fund themselves.
- 2026-10-26editeda second financing with Broadcom residual value support was announced; the exposure to the same customer is larger or at least not yet bounded
C07עובדהhigh confidence
Under the AI XPV platform's first tranche Broadcom entered a backstop of a customer's five-year lease obligations to the financial partner: on a lease default its liability is 85% of the outstanding lease amounts less the value recovered from the AI racks, with a maximum potential liability of approximately $29 billion undiscounted once all racks are deployed. The fair value is stated as not material and nothing has been paid. Separately the customer may, if needed, issue Broadcom convertible promissory notes up to $42 billion, usable solely for its lease obligations; none had been issued at August 2, 2026.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended August 2, 2026primaryQ3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- Management describes the guarantees as modest residual value guarantees with a low probability of being called, supported by the labs' profitability trajectory and the racks' sustaining value, and the remedies include reselling the racks to the seller at a fixed price.
- The financing itself is underwritten by Apollo, Blackstone and banks rather than by Broadcom, and Apollo's own release says the partners fund it.
C24אומדןlow confidence
If neither Anthropic nor OpenAI deploys in fiscal 2027, AI revenue would be about four of the ten outlined gigawatts: roughly $46B on the $11.5B per gigawatt Bernstein's arithmetic implies, or up to about $60B on Google's stated tens of billions plus Meta - flat to down against fiscal 2026's $58B. Total revenue would be about $100B to $115B, adjusted earnings about $11 to $13 a share, and today's price about 28 to 33 times that.
derivedC04 for the gigawatt split management accepted, C15 for the per-customer schedule, C03 for the fiscal 2026 base, and C23 for the margin, tax and share-count arithmetic.
against this
- Anthropic's first gigawatt is funded and already deploying, so the stress removes a customer that has paid for its 2026 capacity through a third party rather than one that has not started.
- Management says demand exceeds the $115B and that supply, not customers, sets the figure, so a lab's shortfall could be backfilled by the four self-funded customers.
C29טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management puts non-AI semiconductor revenue at $4.2B in Q3 fiscal 2026, up 5% and flat sequentially, and about $4.3B in Q4; infrastructure software at $8.8B, up 29%, with annual recurring revenue up 15%, an operating margin of about 84%, and about $8.7B in Q4. It says it sees no effect of AI on software renewals and that VMware is growing on the processor cores sold alongside GPUs.
against this
- Non-AI semiconductors grew 2% in fiscal 2025 and management called enterprise spending slow to recover; the 5% is off a flat base, and wireless declined in the quarter.
- Software growth of 29% is VMware's move from perpetual licences to subscriptions and the price rises that came with it, which the 10-K describes as a transition; the recurring-revenue figure of 15% is the underlying rate and exists only on the call.
- The 10-Q reports the software segment's revenue and operating income and carries no non-AI semiconductor line, so the $4.2B cannot be checked against a filing.
C10עובדהhigh confidence
On April 6, 2026 Broadcom and Google entered a Long Term Agreement for Broadcom to develop and supply custom TPUs for Google's future generations, and a Supply Assurance Agreement for networking and other components in Google's next-generation AI racks, through up to 2031.
החברה
החברות שמריצות את מודלי ה-AI הגדולים ביותר כבר לא נשענות רק על השבבים הכלליים של NVIDIA. Google, Anthropic, OpenAI ו-Meta מתכננות כל אחת שבב סביב המודל שלה, ו-Broadcom הופכת את התכנון הזה לסיליקון שעובד, בכמויות. לדברי ההנהלה, שבב כזה מריץ את המודל של הלקוח בפחות ממחצית העלות.
Broadcom מוכרת גם את שבבי הרשת שמקשרים בין מאיצים, שבבים ותיקים יותר לטלפונים ולפס רחב, ותוכנה של VMware (30% מהמכירות).
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C01עובדהhigh confidence
Broadcom reports two segments. In Q3 fiscal 2026 semiconductor solutions was $20,839M, 70% of revenue, and infrastructure software $8,752M, 30%. Inside semiconductors, AI semiconductor revenue was $16.7B, 56% of total revenue, of which custom accelerators were 73% and AI networking the rest; non-AI semiconductors were $4.2B.
C15טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says it has six custom-accelerator customers and names four: Google, for which it is shipping TPU version 8i and Ironwood; Anthropic, deploying 1 gigawatt of Ironwood in 2026, another 5 gigawatts of version 8i in 2027 and with line of sight to 10 gigawatts more in 2028, to become the largest accelerator customer in 2027 and 2028; OpenAI, deploying 1.3 gigawatts of Jalapeño in 2027 and over 5 gigawatts in 2028 across two generations; and Meta, taking three MTIA generations totalling 3 gigawatts through 2028. It says a custom accelerator runs the customer's own model at less than half the cost of a GPU.
against this
- Anthropic's own release says it runs on Trainium and NVIDIA GPUs as well as TPUs, and OpenAI's says its chip deploys with Microsoft, so neither lab has committed its compute to Broadcom's parts alone.
- The two largest planned customers for 2027 and 2028 are the two whose deployments require the financing platform; the four self-funded customers account for about 4 of the 10 fiscal 2027 gigawatts on Bernstein's arithmetic that management accepted.
ממה היא מרוויחה
היא מקבלת תשלום על כל שבב שנשלח, והשבב של כל לקוח רץ על פני כמה דורות, כך שבחירה אחת בתכנון שלה מביאה שנים של הזמנות. את התוכנה היא מוכרת במנויים רב-שנתיים.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C01עובדהhigh confidence
Broadcom reports two segments. In Q3 fiscal 2026 semiconductor solutions was $20,839M, 70% of revenue, and infrastructure software $8,752M, 30%. Inside semiconductors, AI semiconductor revenue was $16.7B, 56% of total revenue, of which custom accelerators were 73% and AI networking the rest; non-AI semiconductors were $4.2B.
C15טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says it has six custom-accelerator customers and names four: Google, for which it is shipping TPU version 8i and Ironwood; Anthropic, deploying 1 gigawatt of Ironwood in 2026, another 5 gigawatts of version 8i in 2027 and with line of sight to 10 gigawatts more in 2028, to become the largest accelerator customer in 2027 and 2028; OpenAI, deploying 1.3 gigawatts of Jalapeño in 2027 and over 5 gigawatts in 2028 across two generations; and Meta, taking three MTIA generations totalling 3 gigawatts through 2028. It says a custom accelerator runs the customer's own model at less than half the cost of a GPU.
against this
- Anthropic's own release says it runs on Trainium and NVIDIA GPUs as well as TPUs, and OpenAI's says its chip deploys with Microsoft, so neither lab has committed its compute to Broadcom's parts alone.
- The two largest planned customers for 2027 and 2028 are the two whose deployments require the financing platform; the four self-funded customers account for about 4 of the 10 fiscal 2027 gigawatts on Bernstein's arithmetic that management accepted.
C10עובדהhigh confidence
On April 6, 2026 Broadcom and Google entered a Long Term Agreement for Broadcom to develop and supply custom TPUs for Google's future generations, and a Supply Assurance Agreement for networking and other components in Google's next-generation AI racks, through up to 2031.
פירוט מקורות ההכנסה
| מקור | משקל במכירות (הרבעון השלישי, שנת הכספים 2026) | איך |
|---|---|---|
| שבבי AI | 56% | מאיצים ייעודיים שמתוכננים במשותף עם קומץ מעבדות AI וחברות ענן, בערך שלושה רבעים מהפעילות, ושבבי Ethernet למיתוג ולקישוריות באשכולות AI. |
| שבבים שאינם ל-AI | 14% | שבבים לרשתות, לפס רחב, לאחסון, לאלחוט ולתעשייה, שנמכרים ליצרניות ציוד, חלקם הגדול דרך מפיץ אחד. |
| תוכנת תשתית | 30% | תוכנת הענן הפרטי של VMware, ותוכנות למיינפריים ולאבטחה, שנמכרות לחברות גדולות כמנויים וכרישיונות בתשלום מראש. |
ההנהלה
הוק טן מנהל את Broadcom מ-2006 ובנה אותה בקניית חברות, לאחרונה VMware. איימי תונר, שהגיעה מהחברה האם של Google, מונתה לסמנכ״לית הכספים ביוני 2026. בעלי עניין מחזיקים בכ-2%, כמעט כולם של יו״ר הדירקטוריון. טן מחזיק מעט מניות ישירות, ושכרו משולם במניות שעדיין עליו להרוויח: קודם לפי מחיר המניה, ואחר כך לפי מכירות ה-AI בשנים 2028 עד 2030, ביעד נמוך ממה שההנהלה כבר מצפה לו ל-2027. שום דבר בשכר לא תלוי בתזרים המזומנים או ברווח למניה.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C44עובדהhigh confidence
Hock Tan has been president and chief executive since March 2006 and a director since 2006; Henry Samueli, who co-founded Broadcom Corporation in 1991, has chaired the board since 2018; Charlie Kawwas has run the Semiconductor Solutions Group since July 2022, after serving as chief operating officer and chief sales officer; Mark Brazeal has been chief legal officer since March 2017.
C39עובדהhigh confidence
Kirsten Spears retired as chief financial officer effective June 12, 2026 after five years in the role and was succeeded by Amie Thuener, Alphabet's vice president, corporate controller and chief accounting officer since 2018; Spears consults until March 2027.
C45עובדהhigh confidence
As of February 24, 2026 the 13 directors and executive officers as a group beneficially owned 89,467,014 shares, 1.9% of the company; chairman Henry Samueli held 85,559,569, 1.8%, of which 16,175,000 were pledged as collateral; chief executive Hock Tan held 908,474, under 1%; Vanguard at 9.9% and BlackRock at 7.3% were the only holders above 5%. There is one class of common stock.
against this
- The table excludes Tan's unvested 2023 and 2025 PSUs, so his economic stake in the share price is far larger than the 908,474 shares he holds outright, and he has agreed to hold the after-tax 2023 shares through fiscal 2030.
- Samueli sold about 1.4 million shares under a Rule 10b5-1 plan in March and June 2026 (C33), after the table's date.
C46עובדהhigh confidence
Broadcom's annual bonus pays equally on revenue and adjusted non-GAAP operating margin, capped at 150%; fiscal 2025 paid the maximum on both, revenue of $63,887M against a $60,159M maximum and margin of 68.0% against 67.7%. Tan takes no annual bonus: his 2023 PSU award pays on 20-day average share-price hurdles with service to October 31, 2027, and his 2025 PSU award, 610,521 target shares, pays 0% to 300% on the highest four-quarter AI revenue in fiscal 2028 to 2030, $60B threshold, $90B target, $120B maximum. Other officers' PSUs pay on total return against the S&P 500.
against this
- Management already guides fiscal 2027 AI revenue to about $115B (C04), above the $90B target and near the $120B maximum a year before the performance period opens, so the award pays mostly on a level already guided.
- Nothing in the plan pays on cash conversion, return on capital or per-share results, and AI revenue is management's own cut of the semiconductor segment rather than a filed line (C01).
C04טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says fiscal 2027 AI semiconductor revenue will be approximately $115B with supply already secured and demand exceeding that, and that it has line of sight to approximately $230B in fiscal 2028, again with supply secured; it will not update these figures quarterly. It says it is on target to exceed $30 of earnings per share in fiscal 2028, that content runs $20B to $30B per gigawatt, that about 10 gigawatts ship in fiscal 2027 and that the 30 gigawatts its six customers have outlined for 2027 and 2028 will not all be deployed inside those years.
against this
- Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon computed $11B to $12B of revenue per gigawatt from the same outlook and gigawatt count, against management's $20B to $30B; management's answer was that not every gigawatt outlined will deploy inside the fiscal year.
- Roughly six of the ten fiscal 2027 gigawatts belong to Anthropic and OpenAI, whose deployments Broadcom is financing through a platform whose first tranche covers about 1 gigawatt; the second has not closed.
- In June the same management held the fiscal 2026 AI figure at $56B while analysts modelled above $60B, and said it would ship chips rather than the racks it had previously described.
היתרון התחרותי, ומי מאיים עליו
למה הלקוחות נשארים
העברת שבב ליצרנית אחרת עולה ללקוח דור שלם של זמן, כי כל תכנון בנוי על אבני הבניין של Broadcom לחיבור ולאריזה, ויהיה צריך לעשות אותו מחדש. Google בדקה זאת: MediaTek התחילה את הגרסה שלה לשבב של Google מוקדם יותר, והיא תספק אותה מאוחר יותר מ-Broadcom.
מבחוץ, הנעילה ניכרת באורך ההסכמים. Google חתמה על הסכם שמגיע עד 2031, ו-Apple גם כן עד 2031. אף הסכם לא קובע היקף, ו-Google שומרת את MediaTek בכל זאת.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C35הסקהmedium confidence
The moat is a switching cost paid in time. A custom accelerator programme is co-developed over years - Google's for a decade, OpenAI's and Meta's for two to three - on Broadcom's serialiser-deserialiser, memory-integration and packaging implementation, and moving a generation to another implementer means re-implementing it: Google's MediaTek-built version 8t, started earlier, is shipping later than Broadcom's version 8i. What that shows up as from outside is duration: Google signed to 2031 and Apple to 2031, and the lease structures run five years.
against this
- The switching cost did not stop Google hiring MediaTek for a generation, and management expects Google to keep more than one source.
- OpenAI's own page credits its team with the architecture and Broadcom with implementation and networking - the half of the work Marvell, now funded by NVIDIA, also sells.
- A 2031 agreement with undisclosed volume and no stated exclusivity is a duration of relationship, not of share.
- The Ultra Ethernet Consortium has published a 1.0 specification whose stated mission is an "open, interoperable" full-stack architecture for AI and HPC networking, "maintaining Ethernet interoperability". A scale-out layer that a standards body is deliberately making multi-vendor is the opposite of an incumbency, and this is the only witness here that is neither Broadcom nor one of its customers or rivals.
- 2026-09-23editedAdded the Ultra Ethernet Consortium as counter-evidence and as the moat's first non-filer source. Every other witness on this claim was Broadcom, a customer or a rival - all inside the filing system - and the one institution outside it argues against the networking half rather than for it.
C11טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management describes the Google agreement as a commitment to multi-tens of billions of dollars of TPUs annually over the next several years, says it fully expects Google to have some diversity of sources given its consumption growth, and says Broadcom shipped TPU version 8i ahead of MediaTek's version 8t, which was initiated earlier.
against this
- The same sentence concedes that Google has a second TPU supplier in MediaTek for a generation Google itself initiated first.
- Marvell's own filing describes custom accelerators for the same buyers and NVIDIA bought $2.0B of Marvell preferred stock in March 2026 to connect Marvell's custom XPUs to NVIDIA's ecosystem, so the alternative implementer is now funded by the merchant incumbent.
C10עובדהhigh confidence
On April 6, 2026 Broadcom and Google entered a Long Term Agreement for Broadcom to develop and supply custom TPUs for Google's future generations, and a Supply Assurance Agreement for networking and other components in Google's next-generation AI racks, through up to 2031.
C28עובדהhigh confidence
On July 6, 2026 Broadcom and Apple agreed new multi-year long-term agreements through 2031 for Broadcom to develop and supply custom ASIC silicon for multiple generations of Apple products.
האיום
התחליף המובן מאליו הוא NVIDIA, שמכירות מרכזי הנתונים שלה הגיעו ל-89.0 מיליארד דולר ברבעון האחרון, עלייה של 117%. Anthropic אומרת שהיא רצה גם על שבבים של NVIDIA. האיום השקט יותר הוא חברה שנייה שמממשת תכנונים לסיליקון: MediaTek בדור אחד של Google, ו-Marvell, שאליה NVIDIA השקיעה 2.0 מיליארד דולר במרץ.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C12עובדהhigh confidence
NVIDIA's data center revenue was $89.0B in its quarter ended July 26, 2026, up 117% from a year earlier and 18% sequentially on the Blackwell Ultra ramp, and its risk factors name customers who develop their own internal solution as a way its competitive position could be harmed.
C09עובדהmedium confidence
Anthropic states it has signed with Google and Broadcom for multiple gigawatts of next-generation TPU capacity to come online from 2027, that its run-rate revenue passed $30 billion from about $9 billion at the end of 2025, and that it trains and runs Claude on AWS Trainium, Google TPUs and NVIDIA GPUs with Amazon as its primary cloud provider. Google states the TPUs reach Anthropic through Google Cloud and through Broadcom. Broadcom's 8-K puts the Broadcom part at approximately 3.5 gigawatts from 2027 and says consumption depends on Anthropic's continued commercial success.
sourceAnthropic - "Anthropic expands Google and Broadcom compute…primaryGoogle Cloud press release - "Anthropic Expands Use of…primaryForm 8-K, April 6, 2026 - Google long-term agreement and…primary
against this
- Anthropic is private, reports no audited figures, and files nothing; its run-rate revenue is its own statement.
- Anthropic says it runs on three vendors' chips and that Amazon is its primary training partner, so the TPU commitment is one of several and the 8-K itself conditions it on commercial success.
C11טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management describes the Google agreement as a commitment to multi-tens of billions of dollars of TPUs annually over the next several years, says it fully expects Google to have some diversity of sources given its consumption growth, and says Broadcom shipped TPU version 8i ahead of MediaTek's version 8t, which was initiated earlier.
against this
- The same sentence concedes that Google has a second TPU supplier in MediaTek for a generation Google itself initiated first.
- Marvell's own filing describes custom accelerators for the same buyers and NVIDIA bought $2.0B of Marvell preferred stock in March 2026 to connect Marvell's custom XPUs to NVIDIA's ecosystem, so the alternative implementer is now funded by the merchant incumbent.
C13עובדהhigh confidence
Marvell describes itself as developing custom semiconductor solutions tailored to individual customer specifications for AI and data center applications. Its quarter ended August 1, 2026 revenue was $2.7B, up 37%, with the data center end market up 46%; in March 2026 NVIDIA bought $2.0B of Marvell convertible preferred stock under a partnership to connect Marvell's custom XPUs and scale-up networking to NVIDIA's AI infrastructure ecosystem.
המתחרות: NVDA, MRVL, NTNX, QRVO, SWKS, ועוד אחת: פרטית, פיתוח פנימי של לקוח או נסחרת בחו״ל.
פירוט המתחרים
| סימול | מתחרה | תחומי התחרות | שלב | בסיס להשוואה |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | מערכות GPU מדגמי NVIDIA Vera Rubin וגם Blackwell Ultraבסיס להשוואה: מוצר שונה | פתרונות שבבים ל-AI | כבר נמכר | מוצר שונה |
| MediaTek, שבונה את גרסת ה-TPU 8t של Googleבסיס להשוואה: נסחרת בחו״ל | פתרונות שבבים ל-AI | הוכרז | נסחרת בחו״ל | |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, בגיבוי של 2.0 מיליארד דולר מ-NVIDIAבסיס להשוואה: אותו מוצר | פתרונות שבבים ל-AI | כבר נמכר | אותו מוצר |
| NTNX | Nutanix Cloud Infrastructure, והענן הפרטי המנוהל של ענקיות הענן עצמןבסיס להשוואה: בתחום אחד בלבד | תוכנת תשתית | כבר נמכר | בתחום אחד בלבד |
| QRVO · SWKS | Qorvo וגם Skyworks Solutions במסנני רדיו, ויצרנית טלפונים שמעבירה את הרכיב לייצור פנימיבסיס להשוואה: בתחום אחד בלבד | פתרונות שבבים שאינם ל-AI | כבר נמכר | בתחום אחד בלבד |
פוטנציאל הצמיחה
גודל ההזדמנות
את השוק מודדים בהספק החשמלי. מרכזי הנתונים בעולם יכולים לצרוך 161 ג'יגה-וואט ב-2026, עלייה של כ-31%, שליש מהם לשרתי AI, וכ-28% משרתי ה-AI של השנה רצים על שבבים ייעודיים. Broadcom אומרת שכל ג'יגה-וואט נושא בין 20 ל-30 מיליארד דולר משבביה. אף גורם חיצוני לא מודד זאת.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C31עובדהmedium confidence
TrendForce estimates global data center power demand capacity at 122.9 gigawatts in 2025 rising to 161 gigawatts in 2026, up about 31%, with growth above 30% again in 2027; AI servers were about 25% of it in 2025, 33.4% in 2026 and possibly over 40% in 2027. It projects 490.7 gigawatts by 2030 against 222.6 gigawatts of grid capacity available to data centers, a 268 gigawatt gap, with grid delays becoming frequent after 2028.
against this
TrendForce itself says the headline gap overstates the shortage because behind-the-meter generation is not counted, and its 2030 figures are a forecast by a commercial research firm rather than a regulator's register.
C30עובדהmedium confidence
TrendForce forecasts AI server shipments up more than 28% in 2026, with ASIC-based systems at 27.8% of them, the highest share since 2023, GPU-based systems at 69.7%, the top five North American cloud providers' capital spending up 40%, and Google's TPUs increasingly sold to external clients such as Anthropic.
against this
A shipment share is not a revenue share: NVIDIA's data center revenue alone was $89.0B in its latest quarter against Broadcom's $16.7B of AI revenue, so in dollars the merchant GPU still carries most of the market.
C04טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says fiscal 2027 AI semiconductor revenue will be approximately $115B with supply already secured and demand exceeding that, and that it has line of sight to approximately $230B in fiscal 2028, again with supply secured; it will not update these figures quarterly. It says it is on target to exceed $30 of earnings per share in fiscal 2028, that content runs $20B to $30B per gigawatt, that about 10 gigawatts ship in fiscal 2027 and that the 30 gigawatts its six customers have outlined for 2027 and 2028 will not all be deployed inside those years.
against this
- Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon computed $11B to $12B of revenue per gigawatt from the same outlook and gigawatt count, against management's $20B to $30B; management's answer was that not every gigawatt outlined will deploy inside the fiscal year.
- Roughly six of the ten fiscal 2027 gigawatts belong to Anthropic and OpenAI, whose deployments Broadcom is financing through a platform whose first tranche covers about 1 gigawatt; the second has not closed.
- In June the same management held the fiscal 2026 AI figure at $56B while analysts modelled above $60B, and said it would ship chips rather than the racks it had previously described.
מי כבר התחייב
Google ו-Apple חתמו עד 2031, אף אחת מהן בלי היקף מוצהר. הג'יגה-וואט הראשון של Anthropic ממומן בעסקת חכירה של 35 מיליארד דולר, וכ-3.5 ג'יגה-וואט מ-2027 תלויים בהמשך הצלחתה. OpenAI ו-Meta הן תוכניות שהוכרזו, בלי שום דיווח רשמי.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C10עובדהhigh confidence
On April 6, 2026 Broadcom and Google entered a Long Term Agreement for Broadcom to develop and supply custom TPUs for Google's future generations, and a Supply Assurance Agreement for networking and other components in Google's next-generation AI racks, through up to 2031.
C28עובדהhigh confidence
On July 6, 2026 Broadcom and Apple agreed new multi-year long-term agreements through 2031 for Broadcom to develop and supply custom ASIC silicon for multiple generations of Apple products.
C08עובדהhigh confidence
In June 2026 Broadcom launched the AI XPV platform with an initial $35 billion tranche led by Apollo with Blackstone and global banks, to fund more than 1 gigawatt of accelerator-based compute for Anthropic from mid-2026, and says the platform is designed to enable more than 20 gigawatts for Anthropic and OpenAI through 2028. The financial partners fund the racks and lease them to the customer; Broadcom supplies the technology. A second structure of $63 billion for Anthropic was announced by the lenders on October 26 (C51).
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended August 2, 2026primaryApollo Global Management press release - $35 billion capital…primaryQ3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
- 2026-10-26editedthe lenders announced a second, $63 billion Anthropic structure on October 26, so 'none has closed' no longer holds
C09עובדהmedium confidence
Anthropic states it has signed with Google and Broadcom for multiple gigawatts of next-generation TPU capacity to come online from 2027, that its run-rate revenue passed $30 billion from about $9 billion at the end of 2025, and that it trains and runs Claude on AWS Trainium, Google TPUs and NVIDIA GPUs with Amazon as its primary cloud provider. Google states the TPUs reach Anthropic through Google Cloud and through Broadcom. Broadcom's 8-K puts the Broadcom part at approximately 3.5 gigawatts from 2027 and says consumption depends on Anthropic's continued commercial success.
sourceAnthropic - "Anthropic expands Google and Broadcom compute…primaryGoogle Cloud press release - "Anthropic Expands Use of…primaryForm 8-K, April 6, 2026 - Google long-term agreement and…primary
against this
- Anthropic is private, reports no audited figures, and files nothing; its run-rate revenue is its own statement.
- Anthropic says it runs on three vendors' chips and that Amazon is its primary training partner, so the TPU commitment is one of several and the 8-K itself conditions it on commercial success.
C15טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says it has six custom-accelerator customers and names four: Google, for which it is shipping TPU version 8i and Ironwood; Anthropic, deploying 1 gigawatt of Ironwood in 2026, another 5 gigawatts of version 8i in 2027 and with line of sight to 10 gigawatts more in 2028, to become the largest accelerator customer in 2027 and 2028; OpenAI, deploying 1.3 gigawatts of Jalapeño in 2027 and over 5 gigawatts in 2028 across two generations; and Meta, taking three MTIA generations totalling 3 gigawatts through 2028. It says a custom accelerator runs the customer's own model at less than half the cost of a GPU.
against this
- Anthropic's own release says it runs on Trainium and NVIDIA GPUs as well as TPUs, and OpenAI's says its chip deploys with Microsoft, so neither lab has committed its compute to Broadcom's parts alone.
- The two largest planned customers for 2027 and 2028 are the two whose deployments require the financing platform; the four self-funded customers account for about 4 of the 10 fiscal 2027 gigawatts on Bernstein's arithmetic that management accepted.
מאיפה מגיעה הצמיחה, לפי פעילות
מאיפה מגיעה הצמיחה
| פעילות | משקל בהכנסות | צמיחה ברבעון האחרון | בחצי השנה האחרונה | בשנה האחרונה | משקל בעוד 3 שנים, בקצב של חצי השנה האחרונה |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| פתרונות שבבים ל-AI | 70% | +127.4% | +104.0% | +74.7% | 92% |
| תוכנת תשתית | 30% | +29.0% | +19.0% | +14.5% | 8% |
| החברה כולה | 100% | +85.5% | +67.3% | +48.7% | 100% |
לפי הפירוט המדווח עד 2 באוגוסט 2026, אם כל עסק ישמור על קצב הצמיחה של המחצית האחרונה, החברה תצמח בכ-79% בשנה הבאה ובכ-93% בשנה השלישית, לעומת 48.7% ב-12 החודשים האחרונים. פתרונות שבבים ל-AI נושאת את התרחיש: היא צומחת ב-104% לעומת 19% בשאר הפעילות, ותהיה אז 92% מההכנסות. זה תרחיש, לא תחזית: אף עסק לא שומר על הקצב שלו.
איך לקרוא את זה: התרחיש נשען על פעילות אחת: ה-AI הוא 16.7 מיליארד דולר מתוך 20.8 מיליארד דולר בתחום השבבים, והחלק שאינו AI צומח ב-5%, כך ש-104% של התחום הם של ה-AI. הציון נשאר 3: מנוע אחד, וחמישה לקוחות הם 55% מהמכירות.
התוצאות
המספרים
היא צומחת?מהר
המכירות גדלו ב-49% ב-12 החודשים עד אוגוסט 2026, מהר יותר מ-24% בשנה שהסתיימה בנובמבר 2025.
היא רווחית?מאוד
שיעור הרווח התפעולי הוא 48%, עלייה מ-45% בשנה שהסתיימה באוקטובר 2023.
הצמיחה משתלמת?משתלמת
ההוצאות התפעוליות עומדות על 21 סנט מכל דולר מכירות, ירידה מ-30 סנט בשנה שהסתיימה באוקטובר 2021.
התשואה על ההון גבוהה?גבוהה מאוד
כל דולר שהושקע בעסק מניב 27% בשנה אחרי מס, עלייה מ-13% בשנה שהסתיימה באוקטובר 2021.
היא מייצרת מזומנים?הרבה
44% מהמכירות הפכו לתזרים חופשי: 39.4 מיליארד דולר ב-12 החודשים האחרונים.
המאזן איתן?חוב נמוך
היא חייבת 35.4 מיליארד דולר יותר ממה שיש לה במזומן, בערך 0.9 משנת תזרים מפעילות שוטפת.
בעלי המניות מדוללים?כן
מספר המניות עלה ב-15% ב-3.8 שנים, ותגמול במניות עולה 9.5% מהמכירות.
כל המספרים
נתונים מדוחות ה-10-K וה-10-Q של החברה, נכון ל-4 באוקטובר 2026. שנת הכספים של החברה מסתיימת בנובמבר.
| אוקטובר 2021 | אוקטובר 2022 | אוקטובר 2023 | נובמבר 2024 | נובמבר 2025 | 12 חודשים עד אוגוסט 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| גודל וצמיחה | ||||||
| מכירות | $27.4B | $33.2B | $35.8B | $51.6B | $63.9B | $89.1B |
| צמיחת המכירות | +15% | +21% | +7.9% | +44% | +24% | +49% |
| רווח | ||||||
| שיעור הרווח הגולמי | 61% | 67% | 69% | 63% | 68% | 69% |
| שיעור הרווח התפעולי | 31% | 43% | 45% | 26% | 40% | 48% |
| שיעור הרווח הנקי | 25% | 35% | 39% | 11% | 36% | 43% |
| עלות הצמיחה, לכל דולר מכירות | ||||||
| מחקר ופיתוח | 18% | 15% | 15% | 18% | 17% | 13% |
| הוצאות מכירה, הנהלה וכלליות | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 4.7% |
| תגמול מבוסס מניות | 6.2% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 11% | 12% | 9.5% |
| השקעות הוניות | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% |
| מזומנים | ||||||
| תזרים מפעילות שוטפת | $13.8B | $16.7B | $18.1B | $20.0B | $27.5B | $40.7B |
| תזרים מזומנים חופשי | $13.3B | $16.3B | $17.6B | $19.4B | $26.9B | $39.4B |
| מאזן | ||||||
| מזומנים והשקעות לזמן קצר | $12.2B | $12.4B | $14.2B | $9.35B | $16.2B | $24.0B |
| חוב | $41.5B | $39.5B | $39.2B | $67.6B | $65.1B | $59.4B |
| מזומן נטו | −$29.3B | −$27.1B | −$25.0B | −$58.2B | −$49.0B | −$35.4B |
| תשואות ומניות | ||||||
| תשואה על ההון המושקע | 13% | 20% | 24% | 8.4% | 18% | 27% |
| מספר המניות (בדילול מלא) | - | 4.23B | 4.27B | 4.78B | 4.85B | 4.89B |
עלות הצמיחה
הצמיחה הפכה את Broadcom לרווחית יותר: מחקר ופיתוח, מכירות ותגמול במניות לוקחים כל אחד פרוסה קטנה יותר מכל דולר מכירות מאשר כשהגיעה VMware. ההוצאה שגדלה עם המכירות היא השבבים עצמם, כי שבבי AI ייעודיים מרוויחים שיעור נמוך יותר משאר הפעילות, ולכן הרווח לכל מכירה עולה גם כששיעור הרווח על השבבים נשחק.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C49עובדהhigh confidence
Per sales dollar, research and development was 14.7 cents in fiscal 2023, 18.1 in fiscal 2024, 17.2 in fiscal 2025 and 13.3 over the four quarters to August 2026; selling, general and administrative 4.4, 9.6, 6.6 and 4.7; stock pay 6.1, 11.0, 11.8 and 9.5; capital spending between 1.0 and 1.4. GAAP operating margin went 45.2%, 26.1%, 39.9% and 48.0%. The filer's research and development tag equals the income statement line.
sourceForm 10-K for the fiscal year ended November 2, 2025primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended August 2, 2026primary
against this
- Gross margin is falling as custom accelerators grow (C16): cost of revenue is the line that grows with sales, so the widening sits below gross profit.
- Stock pay per sales dollar is still higher than before VMware, whose staff came paid in stock.
C16עובדהhigh confidence
Non-GAAP gross margin was 75% in Q3 fiscal 2026, down 210 basis points sequentially as accelerators became a larger share of revenue, with semiconductor gross margin about 67% and software 94%; it is guided to about 73% for Q4 against 78% a year earlier. Non-GAAP operating margin nonetheless rose 240 basis points to 67.9% because operating expenses grew 22% while semiconductor revenue grew 127%, and management guides operating margin flat at 66%.
sourceQ3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryQ3 fiscal 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- Management guides margin one quarter at a time and would not say where gross margin settles as memory content in each accelerator rises.
- Marvell fell after its own print on the same custom-silicon mix effect, so the dilution is the product's, not one vendor's execution.
הדוח האחרון (2 בספטמבר)
הרבעון שהסתיים באוגוסט 2026, לפי הדוחות.
86%
צמיחת המכירות
לעומת הרבעון המקביל אשתקד
33.4%
צמיחה לעומת הרבעון הקודם
לעומת 14.9% ברבעון שלפני כן
54¢
רווח תפעולי
לכל דולר מכירות
הרבעון השלישי של שנת הכספים 2026 היה גדול בכל שורה: המכירות עלו ב-86%, שבבי ה-AI עלו ב-221% ל-16.7 מיליארד דולר, ותזרים המזומנים החופשי הגיע ל-13.7 מיליארד דולר, 46 סנט מכל דולר מכירות.
הנתון היחיד שירד הוא זה שהשוק עוקב אחריו. שבבים ייעודיים משאירים פחות רווח אחרי עלויות הייצור מהמוצרים הוותיקים של Broadcom, ולכן החלק הזה ירד ל-75 סנט מכל דולר, והתחזית היא 73. שיעור הרווח התפעולי עדיין עלה ל-67.9%, כי ההוצאות גדלו ב-22% בעוד מכירות השבבים גדלו ב-127%.
מה זה אומר על התזההדוח חיזק מאוד את הטיעון: מכירות שבבי ה-AI והמזומנים זינקו, ותחזית ה-AI השנתית עלתה. החולשה היחידה הייתה החלק המצטמצם שנשאר מכל מכירה אחרי עלויות הייצור, אם כי שיעור הרווח התפעולי עדיין עלה. השאלה אם הצמיחה תימשך מעבר לשנה הבאה, שהמחיר לא מגלם, נשארת פתוחה.
הרבעון בפירוט
צמיחת המכירות לעומת הרבעון הקודם, לפי הדוחות.
רווח למניה $3.32 לעומת $3.22 צפוי; $2.68 לפי הדוחות, והפער הוא הסעיפים שהחברה מנטרלת.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C02עובדהhigh confidence
Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue was $29,591M, up 86%. GAAP operating income was $15,955M, non-GAAP operating income $20,095M or 67.9% of revenue. GAAP net income was $13,088M, $2.68 a diluted share; non-GAAP $16,372M, $3.32. Operating cash flow was $14,197M and free cash flow $13,665M, 46% of revenue.
C01עובדהhigh confidence
Broadcom reports two segments. In Q3 fiscal 2026 semiconductor solutions was $20,839M, 70% of revenue, and infrastructure software $8,752M, 30%. Inside semiconductors, AI semiconductor revenue was $16.7B, 56% of total revenue, of which custom accelerators were 73% and AI networking the rest; non-AI semiconductors were $4.2B.
C16עובדהhigh confidence
Non-GAAP gross margin was 75% in Q3 fiscal 2026, down 210 basis points sequentially as accelerators became a larger share of revenue, with semiconductor gross margin about 67% and software 94%; it is guided to about 73% for Q4 against 78% a year earlier. Non-GAAP operating margin nonetheless rose 240 basis points to 67.9% because operating expenses grew 22% while semiconductor revenue grew 127%, and management guides operating margin flat at 66%.
sourceQ3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimaryQ3 fiscal 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- Management guides margin one quarter at a time and would not say where gross margin settles as memory content in each accelerator rises.
- Marvell fell after its own print on the same custom-silicon mix effect, so the dilution is the product's, not one vendor's execution.
C03טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Broadcom guides Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue to approximately $34.8B, up 93%, with AI semiconductor revenue of $21.7B, semiconductor revenue of $26.1B, software of $8.7B, a non-GAAP gross margin of about 73% against 78% a year earlier, and a non-GAAP operating margin of about 66%. Fiscal 2026 AI revenue is now expected at $58B, up 186%, from $56B guided in June.
sourceQ3 fiscal 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primaryQ3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- The press-reported consensus for Q4 was about $35.03B, so the guide was read as a miss on the day and the shares fell 2.7%.
- Gross margin has been guided down every quarter since the accelerator ramp began - 79% a year ago to 73% - and management now declines to guide it beyond one quarter.
לאן הלך הכסף
בתשעה חודשים היא שילמה 9.28 מיליארד דולר דיבידנדים, קנתה בחזרה מניות ב-8.45 מיליארד דולר והחזירה 6.05 מיליארד דולר חוב נטו אחרי הלוואות חדשות, ועדיין הוסיפה 7.8 מיליארד דולר מזומן. הרכישות החוזרות לא הקטינו את מספר המניות, שעלה ב-0.7%, כי היא שילמה לעובדים 6.29 מיליארד דולר במניות.
בעלי עניין ברבעון השני של 2026: 11 רכישות ו-62 מכירות, לפי דיווחי Form 4 שלהם.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 2 טענות
C41עובדהhigh confidence
Over the nine months to August 2, 2026 operating cash flow was $32,950M and capital spending $1,013M, for free cash flow of $31,937M; Broadcom paid $9,281M of dividends, repurchased $8,450M of stock and repaid $6,054M of debt net of issuance, and cash still rose $7,797M. Receivables absorbed $6,544M and inventory $2,253M as the accelerator ramp built. Q4 capital spending is guided to $1.4B for the Singapore substrate fab and laser capacity.
C19עובדהhigh confidence
There were 4,773,629,865 shares outstanding at August 28, 2026; 4,774M at August 2 against 4,741M at November 2, 2025, up 0.7%. Diluted weighted shares were 4,887M in Q3 against 4,860M a year earlier. Over nine months Broadcom repurchased and retired 25 million shares for $8,450M with $10.1B of authorisation remaining, paid $9,281M of dividends at $0.65 a quarter, and expensed $6,287M of stock compensation; it guides a Q4 non-GAAP diluted count of about 4.94 billion before any buyback.
המחיר, ואיפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק
בקצרה. הוגן. מחיר רגיל להכפלה הצפויה של הרווח בשנה הבאה, ולא כלום עבור השנה שאחריה. הסיכון הגדול יותר הוא אם שתי מעבדות AI מפסידות יוכלו לשלם.
מחיר המניה
$343.64
שער סגירה,
מכפיל הרווח
44.4
המכפיל המקובל בשש השנים האחרונות: 43.4
העסק רץ הרחק לפני המחיר. בשנה האחרונה המכירות למניה עלו ב-47.9% בעוד המניה עלתה ב-3.3%, והיא נמצאת 27.8% מתחת לשיאה. כל אחת משלוש הירידות האחרונות באה אחרי דוחות שעקפו את התחזיות, בגלל חשש משיעור הרווח, מהמימון או מקצב של לקוח, ולא בגלל נתון שהחמיץ את התחזית.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C20עובדהhigh confidence
The shares closed at $357.61 on September 18, 2026, 27.8% below the 252-day high of $495.00 and 23.3% above the low of $289.96, for a market value of about $1.70 trillion. Over 252 sessions the price rose 3.3% while trailing revenue per share rose 47.9%, so the multiple paid for each dollar of trailing sales fell 30.1% - the revenue and diluted shares in that identity are the filed ones, $89,104M trailing and 4,887M shares; over 126 sessions the price rose 11.8% on revenue per share up 30.5%.
C25עובדהhigh confidence
Three of the last four repricings followed a beat. On December 12, 2025 the shares closed down 11.4% at $359.93 from $406.37 after Q4 fiscal 2025 beat and gross margin was guided down; on June 4, 2026 down 12.6% at $418.91 from $479.23, the 252-day closing high, after Q2 fiscal 2026 beat and the AI outlook was held; on September 3, 2026 down 2.7% at $357.16 from $367.24 after Q3 beat and Q4 was guided to $34.8B; and on September 14, 2026 down 4.8% at $344.72 from $361.99 on Anthropic's chief executive's essay on pacing, with no Broadcom news.
sourceResearch pack, frozen 2026-09-19primaryYahoo Finance - "Broadcom stock sinks after results show…secondaryYahoo Finance - "Broadcom stock sinks 12% as AI chip…secondaryYahoo Finance - "Broadcom stock falls as chipmaker's strong…secondaryCNBC - "Broadcom CEO addresses Anthropic's slowdown push,…secondaryQ2 fiscal 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary
C37הסקהmedium confidence
The market is pricing the AI revenue as impermanent rather than absent: trailing revenue per share rose 47.9% in a year while the price rose 3.3%, the trailing earnings multiple sits at its own six-year median while the panel's earnings estimates carry a doubling and a doubling again, and each of the last three falls followed a beat on an objection about margin, financing or a customer's pace.
derivedC20, C21, C22 and C25.
against this
- A flat multiple on a doubling earnings base is also what a market does when it believes the earnings are peaking: 44 times trailing is not a low number in absolute terms, and the six-year median it matches was set in years the company grew 8% to 24%.
- The panel raised its price targets 6.7% and its positive share rose after the September print, which is not a market abandoning the name.
ההימורהמחיר כבר מגלם הצלחה
אם ההימור מצליח
1.6×
מהשווי היום, במכפיל שצוין
אם ההימור נכשל
נשארים עם 60%
משווי השוק היום: שאר החברה ופתרונות שבבים ל-AI כשהם תקועים במקרה הנמוך ביותר שלהם, פחות חוב
איך לקרוא את המכפיל
ברווח המדווח המכפיל הוא כ-44, קרוב למקובל ב-Broadcom. ברווח המתואם, שמנטרל כ-2 מיליארד דולר ברבעון של מניות שמשולמות לעובדים והוצאות אחרות, המכפיל הוא כ-31 על הרווח של השנה.
על הרווח שהתחזית לשנה הבאה מרמזת עליו, המכפיל הוא כ-19. המחיר דורש את ההכפלה של השנה הבאה ולא מגלם דבר ל-2028.
אם לא Anthropic ולא OpenAI ייקחו את השבבים שלה בשנה הבאה, הרווח יהיה כ-11 עד 13 דולר למניה, והמכפיל יהיה בין 28 ל-33: יקר, אבל לא הרסני.
מול ההיסטוריה שלה. על הרווח המדווח היא עולה בערך כמו תמיד, בזמן שהרווח שמתחתיו מוכפל. על המכירות ועל המזומנים היא נראית יקרה יותר, כי הצמיחה הגיעה קודם.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 4 טענות
C23אומדןmedium confidence
At $357.61 the shares cost about 30.8 times fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings of about $11.6 a share - $7.81 reported over nine months plus about $3.8 implied by the Q4 guide of $34.8B at a 66% operating margin, $0.7B of interest, a 16% tax rate and 4.94 billion diluted shares - about 19.3 times the roughly $18.5 a share that the $115B fiscal 2027 AI outlook implies with non-AI semiconductor and software revenue flat at about $17B and $35B a year on the same margin and tax rate, and under 12 times the more than $30 management targets for fiscal 2028. Every one of those is below the six-year median trailing multiple of 43.4.
derivedC02, C03, C04, C19, C20 and C22: the reported nine-month adjusted earnings, the Q4 guide, the fiscal 2027 AI outlook, the guided share count and the closing price. Non-AI semiconductor revenue is annualised from the Q4 guide of $4.3B and software from $8.7B.
against this
- The adjusted basis excludes about $8B a year of stock compensation, roughly $1.65 a share, so on a basis that expenses it the fiscal 2027 multiple is nearer 22.
- The fiscal 2027 figure assumes the 66% operating margin survives another year of accelerator mix that management will not guide beyond one quarter.
- The panel's fiscal 2028 estimate of $30.58 matches management's, so the market already carries the number; the low multiple prices doubt about its quality and durability rather than ignorance of it.
C24אומדןlow confidence
If neither Anthropic nor OpenAI deploys in fiscal 2027, AI revenue would be about four of the ten outlined gigawatts: roughly $46B on the $11.5B per gigawatt Bernstein's arithmetic implies, or up to about $60B on Google's stated tens of billions plus Meta - flat to down against fiscal 2026's $58B. Total revenue would be about $100B to $115B, adjusted earnings about $11 to $13 a share, and today's price about 28 to 33 times that.
derivedC04 for the gigawatt split management accepted, C15 for the per-customer schedule, C03 for the fiscal 2026 base, and C23 for the margin, tax and share-count arithmetic.
against this
- Anthropic's first gigawatt is funded and already deploying, so the stress removes a customer that has paid for its 2026 capacity through a third party rather than one that has not started.
- Management says demand exceeds the $115B and that supply, not customers, sets the figure, so a lab's shortfall could be backfilled by the four self-funded customers.
C22עובדהmedium confidence
On the vendor's trailing figures the shares cost 44.4 times reported earnings against a six-year median of 43.4, 19.1 times trailing revenue of $89,104M against 8.8, and 33.2 times EBITDA against 17.4; the free cash flow yield is 2.3% against 5.6%, and return on invested capital 24.0% against 14.3%.
sourceResearch pack, frozen 2026-09-19primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter ended August 2, 2026primaryQ3 fiscal 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- The pack's own cross-check flags its trailing sales multiple, but the flag is caused by a vendor error in the pack's earnings history - the Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue row reads $1.14B against a filed $22,187M - and the 19.1 multiple is struck on the filed $89,104M and is right.
- Reported earnings include $8B a year of acquisition amortisation that ends within about three years; on the adjusted basis the trailing multiple is about 30.
C17עובדהhigh confidence
The adjusted figures leave out costs the reported accounts include. In Q3 fiscal 2026 the reconciliation adds back $2,006M of amortisation of acquisition-related intangibles and $2,019M of stock-based compensation; over nine months stock compensation was $6,287M and amortisation $5,942M. Net intangible assets were $26,325M at August 2, 2026 against $32,273M at November 2, 2025, so the amortisation is finite; the stock compensation recurs every quarter.
המכפיל מול המתחרים
רק Marvell Technology מוכרת את אותו הדבר לאותם קונים כחלק גדול ממה שהיא עושה. השוואת מחיר דורשת לפחות שתיים, ולכן המחיר נבחן מול ההיסטוריה שלה.
מתחרות פרטיות או זרות שאין להן מחיר להשוואה: MediaTek Inc., Alchip Technologies וגם Global Unichip Corp.
ההימור: מה הוא מניב אם יצליח
ההימור הזה הוא על עסק אחד בלבד: שבבי ה-AI ש-Broadcom מתכננת ל-Google, Anthropic, OpenAI ואחרות. התוכנה והשבבים הוותיקים נספרים בנפרד, במחיר שמניח שהם לעולם לא יגדלו.
אם מכירות ה-AI יגיעו למה שההנהלה אומרת שהיא רואה לשנת הכספים 2028, המניה תהיה שווה רק בערך פי אחד וחצי מהיום, ולכן זה הימור יקר. אם הקמת התשתיות תיעצר, התוכנה והשבבים הוותיקים מכסים כשליש מהמחיר היום: המחיר כבר מגלם את רוב ההאצה.
| הכנסות פתרונות שבבים ל-AI בעוד שנתיים עד שלוש | ג'יגה-וואט בשנה של כוח חישוב במאיצים ייעודיים שנדרשים | במכפיל שצוין |
|---|---|---|
| $115.00B | כ-10 אם נשמר 100% | 1.0× |
| 230.00 מיליארד דולר (ניצחון גדול) | כ-20 בשמירה של 100% | 1.6× |
| $241.00B | כ-21 בשמירה של 100% | 1.6× |
כדי להניב פי שניים (הימור הוגן) נדרשות כ-305.53 מיליארד דולר הכנסות מפתרונות שבבים ל-AI (כ-27 ג'יגה-וואט בשנה של כוח חישוב במאיצים ייעודיים); כדי להניב פי חמישה (הימור זול), כ-850.50 מיליארד דולר הכנסות מפתרונות שבבים ל-AI (כ-74 ג'יגה-וואט בשנה של כוח חישוב במאיצים ייעודיים), באותו מכפיל.
כל שורה היא פתרונות שבבים ל-AI בלבד, בתוספת שאר החברה (תוכנת תשתית ופתרונות שבבים שאינם ל-AI) שנספרת בכ-520.00 מיליארד דולר.
השלבים שעליה לעבור
- הושלם Google חתמה על שבבי TPU ייעודיים ורכיבים לארונות שרתים עד 2031, ו-Apple על סיליקון ייעודי עד 2031
- הושלם מנת המימון הראשונה, 35 מיליארד דולר, נסגרה ומממנת יותר מג'יגה-וואט ל-Anthropic מאמצע 2026
- הושלם נרכשה אספקה לקראת ההאצה: התחייבויות רכישה מחייבות של 52.7 מיליארד דולר לשנת הכספים 2027 ו-73.0 מיליארד דולר לשנת הכספים 2028
- בתהליך הכנסות AI של כ-21.7 מיליארד דולר ברבעון הרביעי של שנת הכספים 2026, שמשלימות שנה של 58 מיליארד דולר עד 9 בדצמבר 2026
- טרם התחיל 5 ג'יגה-וואט של TPU מגרסה 8i עבור Anthropic ו-1.3 ג'יגה-וואט ראשונים של OpenAI מוטמעים במהלך 2027 עד דצמבר 2027
- טרם התחיל הכנסות AI בשנת הכספים 2027 בקרבת התחזית של 115 מיליארד דולר, ומשלוח של כעשרה ג'יגה-וואט עד דצמבר 2027
- טרם התחיל הכנסות AI בשנת הכספים 2028 בקרבת 230 מיליארד דולר ורווח של יותר מ-30 דולר למניה עד דצמבר 2028
הפירוט שמאחורי הדירוג
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet at about
$108.88
68% מתחת למחיר (שער סגירה, )
העסק החדש
1.9×
what AI semiconductor solutions is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
הראיות (באנגלית) · 5 טענות
C04טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says fiscal 2027 AI semiconductor revenue will be approximately $115B with supply already secured and demand exceeding that, and that it has line of sight to approximately $230B in fiscal 2028, again with supply secured; it will not update these figures quarterly. It says it is on target to exceed $30 of earnings per share in fiscal 2028, that content runs $20B to $30B per gigawatt, that about 10 gigawatts ship in fiscal 2027 and that the 30 gigawatts its six customers have outlined for 2027 and 2028 will not all be deployed inside those years.
against this
- Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon computed $11B to $12B of revenue per gigawatt from the same outlook and gigawatt count, against management's $20B to $30B; management's answer was that not every gigawatt outlined will deploy inside the fiscal year.
- Roughly six of the ten fiscal 2027 gigawatts belong to Anthropic and OpenAI, whose deployments Broadcom is financing through a platform whose first tranche covers about 1 gigawatt; the second has not closed.
- In June the same management held the fiscal 2026 AI figure at $56B while analysts modelled above $60B, and said it would ship chips rather than the racks it had previously described.
C05עובדהhigh confidence
At August 2, 2026 Broadcom carried $126,821M of unconditional purchase commitments, enforceable and legally binding, primarily for inventory: $1,110M for the rest of fiscal 2026, $52,674M for fiscal 2027, $72,952M for fiscal 2028 and $85M after.
C24אומדןlow confidence
If neither Anthropic nor OpenAI deploys in fiscal 2027, AI revenue would be about four of the ten outlined gigawatts: roughly $46B on the $11.5B per gigawatt Bernstein's arithmetic implies, or up to about $60B on Google's stated tens of billions plus Meta - flat to down against fiscal 2026's $58B. Total revenue would be about $100B to $115B, adjusted earnings about $11 to $13 a share, and today's price about 28 to 33 times that.
derivedC04 for the gigawatt split management accepted, C15 for the per-customer schedule, C03 for the fiscal 2026 base, and C23 for the margin, tax and share-count arithmetic.
against this
- Anthropic's first gigawatt is funded and already deploying, so the stress removes a customer that has paid for its 2026 capacity through a third party rather than one that has not started.
- Management says demand exceeds the $115B and that supply, not customers, sets the figure, so a lab's shortfall could be backfilled by the four self-funded customers.
C29טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management puts non-AI semiconductor revenue at $4.2B in Q3 fiscal 2026, up 5% and flat sequentially, and about $4.3B in Q4; infrastructure software at $8.8B, up 29%, with annual recurring revenue up 15%, an operating margin of about 84%, and about $8.7B in Q4. It says it sees no effect of AI on software renewals and that VMware is growing on the processor cores sold alongside GPUs.
against this
- Non-AI semiconductors grew 2% in fiscal 2025 and management called enterprise spending slow to recover; the 5% is off a flat base, and wireless declined in the quarter.
- Software growth of 29% is VMware's move from perpetual licences to subscriptions and the price rises that came with it, which the 10-K describes as a transition; the recurring-revenue figure of 15% is the underlying rate and exists only on the call.
- The 10-Q reports the software segment's revenue and operating income and carries no non-AI semiconductor line, so the $4.2B cannot be checked against a filing.
C23אומדןmedium confidence
At $357.61 the shares cost about 30.8 times fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings of about $11.6 a share - $7.81 reported over nine months plus about $3.8 implied by the Q4 guide of $34.8B at a 66% operating margin, $0.7B of interest, a 16% tax rate and 4.94 billion diluted shares - about 19.3 times the roughly $18.5 a share that the $115B fiscal 2027 AI outlook implies with non-AI semiconductor and software revenue flat at about $17B and $35B a year on the same margin and tax rate, and under 12 times the more than $30 management targets for fiscal 2028. Every one of those is below the six-year median trailing multiple of 43.4.
derivedC02, C03, C04, C19, C20 and C22: the reported nine-month adjusted earnings, the Q4 guide, the fiscal 2027 AI outlook, the guided share count and the closing price. Non-AI semiconductor revenue is annualised from the Q4 guide of $4.3B and software from $8.7B.
against this
- The adjusted basis excludes about $8B a year of stock compensation, roughly $1.65 a share, so on a basis that expenses it the fiscal 2027 multiple is nearer 22.
- The fiscal 2027 figure assumes the 66% operating margin survives another year of accelerator mix that management will not guide beyond one quarter.
- The panel's fiscal 2028 estimate of $30.58 matches management's, so the market already carries the number; the low multiple prices doubt about its quality and durability rather than ignorance of it.
איפה אנחנו חלוקים על השוק
השוק חושב
הדרך השנייה בטיבה להשקיע ב-AI: שיעורי רווח נמוכים משל NVIDIA, מעט לקוחות, וצמיחה שממומנת בהלוואות של אותם לקוחות.
אנחנו חושבים
המכירות בשנה הבאה מגובות בחוזים יותר ממה שהמחיר משקף: Broadcom התחייבה לרכוש רכיבים בשווי 52.7 מיליארד דולר ל-2027, ו-Google התחייבה עד 2031.
הראיות האלה נמצאות בהערות לדוח הרבעוני, בהתחייבויות הרכישה ובתנאי ערבות החכירה, בעוד הסיקור קורא את שיעור הרווח הגולמי ואת המאמרים של המעבדות. חברה לא מתחייבת ל-52.7 מיליארד דולר ברכיבים לשנה שהיא מפקפקת בה.
נטעה אם לקוח ילווה מ-Broadcom כדי לשלם את דמי השכירות שלו, אם הסבב השני של מימון החכירה לא ייסגר, או אם התחזית למכירות ה-AI ב-2027 תרד מתחת ל-100 מיליארד דולר.
מה אומרים האנליסטים
המלצות חיוביות
92%
מתוך 52, 1 בספטמבר
לפני ארבעה חודשים
92%
מתוך 49, 1 במאי
הראיות (באנגלית) · 7 טענות
C05עובדהhigh confidence
At August 2, 2026 Broadcom carried $126,821M of unconditional purchase commitments, enforceable and legally binding, primarily for inventory: $1,110M for the rest of fiscal 2026, $52,674M for fiscal 2027, $72,952M for fiscal 2028 and $85M after.
C10עובדהhigh confidence
On April 6, 2026 Broadcom and Google entered a Long Term Agreement for Broadcom to develop and supply custom TPUs for Google's future generations, and a Supply Assurance Agreement for networking and other components in Google's next-generation AI racks, through up to 2031.
C07עובדהhigh confidence
Under the AI XPV platform's first tranche Broadcom entered a backstop of a customer's five-year lease obligations to the financial partner: on a lease default its liability is 85% of the outstanding lease amounts less the value recovered from the AI racks, with a maximum potential liability of approximately $29 billion undiscounted once all racks are deployed. The fair value is stated as not material and nothing has been paid. Separately the customer may, if needed, issue Broadcom convertible promissory notes up to $42 billion, usable solely for its lease obligations; none had been issued at August 2, 2026.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended August 2, 2026primaryQ3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- Management describes the guarantees as modest residual value guarantees with a low probability of being called, supported by the labs' profitability trajectory and the racks' sustaining value, and the remedies include reselling the racks to the seller at a fixed price.
- The financing itself is underwritten by Apollo, Blackstone and banks rather than by Broadcom, and Apollo's own release says the partners fund it.
C21עובדהmedium confidence
The research pack's panel rates the shares 54 buy, 6 hold and no sell; its dated series shows 92.3% positive on 52 analysts at September 1, 2026 against 94.2% on 52 at January 1, 2026. Average price targets drifted up 6.7% over the last month against the last year. The panel's estimates are fiscal 2028 revenue of $281.6B and earnings of $30.58 a share on 15 analysts, fiscal 2029 $416.5B on 6, and fiscal 2030 $552.4B on 10; its Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue estimate is $34.86B against the $34.8B Broadcom guided.
C25עובדהhigh confidence
Three of the last four repricings followed a beat. On December 12, 2025 the shares closed down 11.4% at $359.93 from $406.37 after Q4 fiscal 2025 beat and gross margin was guided down; on June 4, 2026 down 12.6% at $418.91 from $479.23, the 252-day closing high, after Q2 fiscal 2026 beat and the AI outlook was held; on September 3, 2026 down 2.7% at $357.16 from $367.24 after Q3 beat and Q4 was guided to $34.8B; and on September 14, 2026 down 4.8% at $344.72 from $361.99 on Anthropic's chief executive's essay on pacing, with no Broadcom news.
sourceResearch pack, frozen 2026-09-19primaryYahoo Finance - "Broadcom stock sinks after results show…secondaryYahoo Finance - "Broadcom stock sinks 12% as AI chip…secondaryYahoo Finance - "Broadcom stock falls as chipmaker's strong…secondaryCNBC - "Broadcom CEO addresses Anthropic's slowdown push,…secondaryQ2 fiscal 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary
C36הסקהmedium confidence
Broadcom's largest planned customer for 2027 is a company whose rent Broadcom guarantees and may fund: the backstop covers 85% of Anthropic's outstanding lease amounts less recoveries up to $29 billion, and Anthropic may issue Broadcom up to $42 billion of convertible notes to meet those same lease payments. Anthropic's ability to pay rests on its own revenue growth and fundraising, and Broadcom's own 8-K conditions the capacity on Anthropic's continued commercial success. On October 26 a second, $63 billion structure for Anthropic was announced in which Broadcom gives residual value support equal to the first lien amount (C51); how much that adds to the $29B backstop is not stated.
derivedC07, C08, C09 and C15: the 10-Q's backstop and convertible-note terms, the platform's purpose as stated by Broadcom and Apollo, Anthropic's own revenue statement, and management's customer ranking. and C51: the lenders' October 26 release.
against this
- Anthropic states run-rate revenue above $30 billion from about $9 billion at the end of 2025 and raised $30 billion in February 2026, and management says it is well on its way to a public listing that would change its credit.
- The fair value of the backstop is stated as not material, no notes have been issued, and Apollo and Blackstone underwrote the $35 billion without Broadcom lending a dollar.
- Only two of six customers use the platform; the other four are, in management's words, financially secure enough to fund themselves.
- 2026-10-26editeda second financing with Broadcom residual value support was announced; the exposure to the same customer is larger or at least not yet bounded
C04טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says fiscal 2027 AI semiconductor revenue will be approximately $115B with supply already secured and demand exceeding that, and that it has line of sight to approximately $230B in fiscal 2028, again with supply secured; it will not update these figures quarterly. It says it is on target to exceed $30 of earnings per share in fiscal 2028, that content runs $20B to $30B per gigawatt, that about 10 gigawatts ship in fiscal 2027 and that the 30 gigawatts its six customers have outlined for 2027 and 2028 will not all be deployed inside those years.
against this
- Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon computed $11B to $12B of revenue per gigawatt from the same outlook and gigawatt count, against management's $20B to $30B; management's answer was that not every gigawatt outlined will deploy inside the fiscal year.
- Roughly six of the ten fiscal 2027 gigawatts belong to Anthropic and OpenAI, whose deployments Broadcom is financing through a platform whose first tranche covers about 1 gigawatt; the second has not closed.
- In June the same management held the fiscal 2026 AI figure at $56B while analysts modelled above $60B, and said it would ship chips rather than the racks it had previously described.
מה יכול להשתבש, ואיך נדע
הסיכונים
- מממנת את הלקוח שלה. Broadcom ערבה לשכר הדירה של מרכזי הנתונים של Anthropic עד 29 מיליארד דולר, ועשויה להלוות לה 42 מיליארד דולר. ב-26 באוקטובר הוכרזה עסקה שנייה של Anthropic בהיקף 63 מיליארד דולר, שוב בגיבוי Broadcom.
- לקוחות בונים מקור שני. Google התקשרה עם MediaTek לדור אחד של שבב, ו-NVIDIA השקיעה 2.0 מיליארד דולר ב-Marvell, החברה השנייה שמממשת תכנונים של שבבים ייעודיים.
- פחות לקוחות, גדולים יותר. חמישה לקוחות היו 55% ממכירות הרבעון האחרון, לעומת כ-40% שנה קודם, ומפיץ אחד טיפל בחצי.
- פחות לכל ג'יגה-וואט. חישוב של אנליסט על הג'יגה-וואטים של ההנהלה עצמה נותן כ-11.5 מיליארד דולר של שבבים לכל ג'יגה-וואט, ולא בין 20 ל-30 מיליארד דולר שההנהלה מציינת.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 8 טענות
C07עובדהhigh confidence
Under the AI XPV platform's first tranche Broadcom entered a backstop of a customer's five-year lease obligations to the financial partner: on a lease default its liability is 85% of the outstanding lease amounts less the value recovered from the AI racks, with a maximum potential liability of approximately $29 billion undiscounted once all racks are deployed. The fair value is stated as not material and nothing has been paid. Separately the customer may, if needed, issue Broadcom convertible promissory notes up to $42 billion, usable solely for its lease obligations; none had been issued at August 2, 2026.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended August 2, 2026primaryQ3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- Management describes the guarantees as modest residual value guarantees with a low probability of being called, supported by the labs' profitability trajectory and the racks' sustaining value, and the remedies include reselling the racks to the seller at a fixed price.
- The financing itself is underwritten by Apollo, Blackstone and banks rather than by Broadcom, and Apollo's own release says the partners fund it.
C36הסקהmedium confidence
Broadcom's largest planned customer for 2027 is a company whose rent Broadcom guarantees and may fund: the backstop covers 85% of Anthropic's outstanding lease amounts less recoveries up to $29 billion, and Anthropic may issue Broadcom up to $42 billion of convertible notes to meet those same lease payments. Anthropic's ability to pay rests on its own revenue growth and fundraising, and Broadcom's own 8-K conditions the capacity on Anthropic's continued commercial success. On October 26 a second, $63 billion structure for Anthropic was announced in which Broadcom gives residual value support equal to the first lien amount (C51); how much that adds to the $29B backstop is not stated.
derivedC07, C08, C09 and C15: the 10-Q's backstop and convertible-note terms, the platform's purpose as stated by Broadcom and Apollo, Anthropic's own revenue statement, and management's customer ranking. and C51: the lenders' October 26 release.
against this
- Anthropic states run-rate revenue above $30 billion from about $9 billion at the end of 2025 and raised $30 billion in February 2026, and management says it is well on its way to a public listing that would change its credit.
- The fair value of the backstop is stated as not material, no notes have been issued, and Apollo and Blackstone underwrote the $35 billion without Broadcom lending a dollar.
- Only two of six customers use the platform; the other four are, in management's words, financially secure enough to fund themselves.
- 2026-10-26editeda second financing with Broadcom residual value support was announced; the exposure to the same customer is larger or at least not yet bounded
C11טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management describes the Google agreement as a commitment to multi-tens of billions of dollars of TPUs annually over the next several years, says it fully expects Google to have some diversity of sources given its consumption growth, and says Broadcom shipped TPU version 8i ahead of MediaTek's version 8t, which was initiated earlier.
against this
- The same sentence concedes that Google has a second TPU supplier in MediaTek for a generation Google itself initiated first.
- Marvell's own filing describes custom accelerators for the same buyers and NVIDIA bought $2.0B of Marvell preferred stock in March 2026 to connect Marvell's custom XPUs to NVIDIA's ecosystem, so the alternative implementer is now funded by the merchant incumbent.
C13עובדהhigh confidence
Marvell describes itself as developing custom semiconductor solutions tailored to individual customer specifications for AI and data center applications. Its quarter ended August 1, 2026 revenue was $2.7B, up 37%, with the data center end market up 46%; in March 2026 NVIDIA bought $2.0B of Marvell convertible preferred stock under a partnership to connect Marvell's custom XPUs and scale-up networking to NVIDIA's AI infrastructure ecosystem.
C06עובדהhigh confidence
Direct sales to one distributor were 50% of Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue, up from 32% a year earlier. Sales to the top five end customers through all channels were approximately 55% of Q3 revenue and 50% of nine-month revenue, against about 40% in both prior-year periods. Broadcom says it expects significant customer concentration to continue.
C24אומדןlow confidence
If neither Anthropic nor OpenAI deploys in fiscal 2027, AI revenue would be about four of the ten outlined gigawatts: roughly $46B on the $11.5B per gigawatt Bernstein's arithmetic implies, or up to about $60B on Google's stated tens of billions plus Meta - flat to down against fiscal 2026's $58B. Total revenue would be about $100B to $115B, adjusted earnings about $11 to $13 a share, and today's price about 28 to 33 times that.
derivedC04 for the gigawatt split management accepted, C15 for the per-customer schedule, C03 for the fiscal 2026 base, and C23 for the margin, tax and share-count arithmetic.
against this
- Anthropic's first gigawatt is funded and already deploying, so the stress removes a customer that has paid for its 2026 capacity through a third party rather than one that has not started.
- Management says demand exceeds the $115B and that supply, not customers, sets the figure, so a lab's shortfall could be backfilled by the four self-funded customers.
C04טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says fiscal 2027 AI semiconductor revenue will be approximately $115B with supply already secured and demand exceeding that, and that it has line of sight to approximately $230B in fiscal 2028, again with supply secured; it will not update these figures quarterly. It says it is on target to exceed $30 of earnings per share in fiscal 2028, that content runs $20B to $30B per gigawatt, that about 10 gigawatts ship in fiscal 2027 and that the 30 gigawatts its six customers have outlined for 2027 and 2028 will not all be deployed inside those years.
against this
- Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon computed $11B to $12B of revenue per gigawatt from the same outlook and gigawatt count, against management's $20B to $30B; management's answer was that not every gigawatt outlined will deploy inside the fiscal year.
- Roughly six of the ten fiscal 2027 gigawatts belong to Anthropic and OpenAI, whose deployments Broadcom is financing through a platform whose first tranche covers about 1 gigawatt; the second has not closed.
- In June the same management held the fiscal 2026 AI figure at $56B while analysts modelled above $60B, and said it would ship chips rather than the racks it had previously described.
C51עובדהmedium confidence
On October 26, 2026 Bank of America, Blackstone, Citi and Morgan Stanley announced a $63 billion transaction through a new special-purpose vehicle with committed financing to buy Broadcom accelerators and networking to lease to Anthropic, as part of the compute agreement Broadcom announced earlier, with deliveries from calendar 2027. Bank of America, Citi and Morgan Stanley arrange the first lien, Blackstone alone commits the second lien, and Broadcom provides residual value support to the vehicle equal to the first lien amount. The release does not say how large the first lien is.
שאלות פתוחות
- מי הלקוחות החמישי והשישי של שבבים ייעודיים; ההנהלה מנקבת בשמות של ארבעה מתוך שישה.
- כמה שווים בדולרים הג'יגה-וואטים של Anthropic, והאם היא יכולה לפרוש מההסכם. היא לא מפרסמת דוחות כספיים.
- האם ערבות ה-29 מיליארד דולר באמת שווה כל כך מעט כפי שהדיווח אומר.
הראיות (באנגלית) · 3 טענות
C15טענת ההנהלהmedium confidence
Management says it has six custom-accelerator customers and names four: Google, for which it is shipping TPU version 8i and Ironwood; Anthropic, deploying 1 gigawatt of Ironwood in 2026, another 5 gigawatts of version 8i in 2027 and with line of sight to 10 gigawatts more in 2028, to become the largest accelerator customer in 2027 and 2028; OpenAI, deploying 1.3 gigawatts of Jalapeño in 2027 and over 5 gigawatts in 2028 across two generations; and Meta, taking three MTIA generations totalling 3 gigawatts through 2028. It says a custom accelerator runs the customer's own model at less than half the cost of a GPU.
against this
- Anthropic's own release says it runs on Trainium and NVIDIA GPUs as well as TPUs, and OpenAI's says its chip deploys with Microsoft, so neither lab has committed its compute to Broadcom's parts alone.
- The two largest planned customers for 2027 and 2028 are the two whose deployments require the financing platform; the four self-funded customers account for about 4 of the 10 fiscal 2027 gigawatts on Bernstein's arithmetic that management accepted.
C09עובדהmedium confidence
Anthropic states it has signed with Google and Broadcom for multiple gigawatts of next-generation TPU capacity to come online from 2027, that its run-rate revenue passed $30 billion from about $9 billion at the end of 2025, and that it trains and runs Claude on AWS Trainium, Google TPUs and NVIDIA GPUs with Amazon as its primary cloud provider. Google states the TPUs reach Anthropic through Google Cloud and through Broadcom. Broadcom's 8-K puts the Broadcom part at approximately 3.5 gigawatts from 2027 and says consumption depends on Anthropic's continued commercial success.
sourceAnthropic - "Anthropic expands Google and Broadcom compute…primaryGoogle Cloud press release - "Anthropic Expands Use of…primaryForm 8-K, April 6, 2026 - Google long-term agreement and…primary
against this
- Anthropic is private, reports no audited figures, and files nothing; its run-rate revenue is its own statement.
- Anthropic says it runs on three vendors' chips and that Amazon is its primary training partner, so the TPU commitment is one of several and the 8-K itself conditions it on commercial success.
C07עובדהhigh confidence
Under the AI XPV platform's first tranche Broadcom entered a backstop of a customer's five-year lease obligations to the financial partner: on a lease default its liability is 85% of the outstanding lease amounts less the value recovered from the AI racks, with a maximum potential liability of approximately $29 billion undiscounted once all racks are deployed. The fair value is stated as not material and nothing has been paid. Separately the customer may, if needed, issue Broadcom convertible promissory notes up to $42 billion, usable solely for its lease obligations; none had been issued at August 2, 2026.
sourceForm 10-Q for the quarter ended August 2, 2026primaryQ3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptprimary
against this
- Management describes the guarantees as modest residual value guarantees with a low probability of being called, supported by the labs' profitability trajectory and the racks' sustaining value, and the remedies include reselling the racks to the seller at a fixed price.
- The financing itself is underwritten by Apollo, Blackstone and banks rather than by Broadcom, and Apollo's own release says the partners fund it.
מה ישנה את ההערכה שלנו
- אטרקטיבית→ניטרליתההכפלה ב-2027 נתפסת כוודאית ולא כצפויה בלבד
נדרשים כל אלה:
- ○מחיר המניה עולה עד שהרווח המתואם של השנה מתומחר כמו הרווח המדווח כבר היום, והדיסקאונט של השנה הבאה נעלם.בערך $474.52 במחירי היום, 38% מעל הסגירה האחרונה
- ○מכירות ה-AI ב-2027 מגיעות לקרוב ל-115 מיליארד הדולר שבתחזית, כך שהמחיר העולה הוא השוק שמסכים ולא העסק שמפתיע.ייבדק בדוח התוצאות הבא, שמועדו עד 9 בדצמבר
- אטרקטיבית→ניטרליתגיבוי הלקוח מפסיק להיות שאלה של מימון
מספיק אחד מאלה:
- ○לקוח לווה מ-Broadcom כדי לשלם את דמי השכירות שלו, או ש-Broadcom משלמת משהו במסגרת ערבות החכירה.נבדק ברגע שזה קורה
- ○חמישה לקוחות עוברים 65% מהמכירות בלי שנחשף לקוח חדש לשבבים ייעודיים.ייבדק בדוח התוצאות הבא, שמועדו עד 9 בדצמבר
נטעה גם אם
- מכירות ה-AI ב-2027 מסתכמות בפחות מ-90 מיליארד דולר, לעומת התחזית של 115 מיליארד דולר.
- השבב הבא של Google מגיע מספק אחר, וחלקה של Broadcom בו קטן.
- שיעור הרווח התפעולי המתואם נשאר מתחת ל-60% שני רבעונים ברציפות, ככל ששבבים ייעודיים גדלים.
מה בהמשך
- דצמבר 2026 דוח 10-K לשנת הכספים 2026: האם הונפקו אג״ח להמרה או שולם גיבוי במסגרת פלטפורמת AI XPV, ריכוז הלקוחות בשנה כולה, והתחייבויות הרכישה לפי שנים.
כל האירועים הצפויים
- דצמבר 2026 דוח 10-K לשנת הכספים 2026: האם הונפקו אג״ח להמרה או שולם גיבוי במסגרת פלטפורמת AI XPV, ריכוז הלקוחות בשנה כולה, והתחייבויות הרכישה לפי שנים.
- 9 בדצמבר 2026 תוצאות הרבעון הרביעי ושנת הכספים 2026: הכנסות ה-AI לעומת התחזית של 21.7 מיליארד דולר, שיעור הרווח התפעולי לעומת 66% בזמן שהרווח הגולמי מתדלל, והאם התחזית של 115 מיליארד דולר להכנסות AI בשנת הכספים 2027 נשמרת.
- מרץ 2027 תוצאות הרבעון הראשון של שנת הכספים 2027: הרבעון הראשון בשנה שלפי ההנהלה תניב כ-115 מיליארד דולר מהכנסות AI, ההגדלה ההדרגתית של גרסה 8i של Anthropic, והתחלת האספקה ממפעל המצעים בסינגפור.
- מרץ 2027 דוח הזימון לאסיפה של 2027: האם הבונוס לשנת הכספים 2026 שוב שולם במלוא המקסימום, האם יעדי הכנסות ה-AI יועלו מעל הרמה שבתחזית, וכמה מניות יחזיקו בעלי העניין אחרי המכירות של השנה.
מה קרה מאז
נכתבה
19 בספטמבר
המחיר בעת כתיבת התזה
$357.61
18 בספטמבר
שער סגירה אחרון
$343.64
שער סגירה, · -3.9% מאז
- 26 באוקטוברחדשותהוכרזה עסקת מימון שנייה ל-Anthropic בהיקף 63 מיליארד דולר, בגיבוי Broadcomבנקים ו-Blackstone יממנו שבבים שיושכרו ל-Anthropic, ו-Broadcom תתמוך בשעבוד מדרגה ראשונה. המבנה חוזר על עסקת יוני; היקף החשיפה של Broadcom עדיין לא נמסר.
- 9 באוקטוברחדשותהערכה שלא השתנתה: קצב ההכנסות של OpenAI, 50 מיליארד דולר, ושיחות מוקדמות על מימון מכבידים על Broadcom.לפי הדיווחים, קצב ההכנסות של OpenAI מגיע ל-50 מיליארד דולר, ובמקביל מדווח על שיחות מוקדמות על מימון שבבי OpenAI של Broadcom.
- 8 באוקטוברחדשותלפי דיווחים, Broadcom מבקשת מהמלווים יותר מ-50 מיליארד דולר למימון שבבים עבור OpenAI. ההערכה לא השתנתהלפי WSJ, Broadcom מארגנת מימון של יותר מ-50 מיליארד דולר לשבבים עבור OpenAI.
- 5 באוקטוברבדיקת התזהההימור מציין עכשיו על מה הוא נשעןהבעלים ביקש שכל הימור יציין את המגמה המקרו-כלכלית שעומדת מאחוריו, אחרי שבהימור על BWXT חסר הטיעון של מנכ״ל החברה בעד אנרגיה גרעינית על פני גז.
- 4 באוקטוברבדיקת התזהרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים: מקורות ההכנסה, עלות הצמיחה, ההנהלה, אירועים צפוייםרשימת הבדיקות של הבעלים הראתה שהשיטה שותקת בשאלות מי מנהל את החברה, כמה עולה הצמיחה, מאיפה מגיע הכסף ואילו אירועים צפויים בתאריכים ידועים. בסבב הזה מילאנו את ארבעת הנושאים מתוך דוח הזימון לאסיפה והדוחות.
- 3 באוקטוברחדשותBlackstone ובנקים מגייסים 60 מיליארד דולר למימון שבבי ה-AI של Broadcom. ההערכה לא השתנתהBloomberg דיווחה ש-Blackstone ובנקים גייסו 60 מיליארד דולר למימון שבבי AI של Broadcom.
- 2 באוקטוברחדשותתשקיף ההנפקה של Anthropic חוזר על מסגרת המימון של Broadcom בהיקף 42 מיליארד דולר, שכבר הופיעה ב-10-Q. ההערכה לא השתנתהתשקיף ההנפקה של Anthropic מתאר את המימון של Broadcom בהיקף של עד 42 מיליארד דולר.
- 19 בספטמברהתזה נכתבהאטרקטיבית, ביטחון בינונינכתבה שבועיים אחרי תוצאות הרבעון השלישי, כשהמניה נמצאת 27.8% מתחת לשיאה והמכירות צמחו ב-86%.
נבדקה גם שלוש פעמים, ללא ממצא חדש שמצריך פעולה.
מקורות 33
Where this came from
Sources - 33
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-09-10the balance sheet and cash flow statement, the $126,821M purchase-commitments table by fiscal year, the AI XPV platform note with the $29B maximum backstop liability and the $42B convertible-note facility, customer concentration of 50% to one distributor and 55% to the top five end customers, the debt note, the repurchase note, the cover-page share count of 4,773,629,865 at 28 August 2026, and the risk factorsbacksC01C05C06C07C08C17C18C19C20C22C49C50
- S02primarycompany filing2026-09-02Q3 fiscal 2026 statements, the segment split, the Q4 guide of $34.8B revenue and 66% non-GAAP operating margin, the full GAAP-to-non-GAAP reconciliation including $2,006M of acquisition amortisation and $2,019M of stock compensation in the quarter, the cash flow statement with buybacks, dividends and debt repayment, and the quarterly dividendbacksC01C02C03C16C17C19C20C21C22C41
- S03primarytranscript2026-09-02Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptmanagement's AI revenue of $16.7B, the fiscal 2026 AI figure of $58B, the fiscal 2027 outlook of about $115B and fiscal 2028 line of sight of about $230B, the per-customer gigawatt schedule, $20B to $30B of content per gigawatt, the XPV platform with Apollo and Blackstone, gross margin by segment, the $59.6B fixed-rate debt at a 4% coupon, and eleven analyst questions on supply, financing, margin and content per gigawatt
In 2027, we have secured the supply to again double AI revenue to approximately $115 billion. Our demand actually exceeds this outlook, and we will work to improve supply. In 2028, we expect the trajectory of growth to continue. We have line of sight for fiscal 2028 AI semiconductor revenue growth to again double to $230 billion.
backsC01C03C04C07C08C11C15C16C18C19C29C41C43 - S04primarycompany filing2025-12-18the business description by end market and software portfolio, the Competition section that names classes and no company, distributors at 48% and the top five end customers at about 40% of fiscal 2025 revenue, the manufacturing note naming TSMC and the internal FBAR and laser fabs, 33,000 employees with 57% in R&D, and the fiscal 2025 statementsbacksC06C27C40C44C47C48C49
- S05primarycompany filing2025-12-11fiscal 2025 revenue of $63,887M, Q4 fiscal 2025 revenue of $18,015M, and the Q1 fiscal 2026 guide of $19.1B revenue and $8.2B AI revenuebacksC26
- S06primarytranscript2025-12-11Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings call transcriptfiscal 2025 AI revenue of $20B up 65%, the AI order backlog above $73B to ship over eighteen months, the consolidated backlog of $162B, the AI switch backlog above $10B, and the Q1 fiscal 2026 gross margin guide down about 100 basis points on AI mix
All these components combined with our XPUs bring our total order on hand in excess of $73 billion today, which is almost half Broadcom's consolidated backlog of $162 billion. We expect this $73 billion in AI backlog to be delivered over the next eighteen months.
backsC26 - S07primarytranscript2026-06-03Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcriptthe fiscal 2026 AI outlook held at $56B, the chips-only statement, Google's expected diversity of sources, $30B of AI bookings in the quarter, AI networking at about 40% of AI revenue, and twelve analysts' questions on gross margin, financing and supply
we fully expect that there will be some diversity of sources for them. But our commitment from them is a very substantial dollar amount.
backsC04C11C29C38 - S08primarycompany filing2026-04-06the Long Term Agreement to develop and supply Google's future TPU generations and the Supply Assurance Agreement through up to 2031, and Anthropic's approximately 3.5 gigawatts of TPU capacity through Broadcom from 2027, stated as dependent on Anthropic's continued commercial successbacksC09C10
- S09primarycompany filing2026-07-06new multi-year long-term agreements with Apple through 2031 for custom ASIC silicon across multiple generations of Apple productsbacksC28
- S10primarycompany filing2026-04-02Kirsten Spears' retirement effective June 12, 2026 and the appointment of Amie Thuener, Alphabet's chief accounting officer since 2018backsC39
- S11primaryvendor data2026-09-19Research pack, frozen 2026-09-19the market tier: last close $357.61, the 252-day range, the price-move decomposition, the analyst panel and its history, price-target drift, forward estimates by panel size, the vendor valuation ratios against six-year medians, FINRA short interest, insider statistics, the FMP daily price history behind the repricing episodes, and headcount rows citing the 10-KbacksC20C21C22C25C33C34C40
- S12primarycompany filing2026-08-26data center revenue of $89.0B up 117% on the Blackwell Ultra ramp, and the risk factor naming customers who develop their own internal solutionbacksC12
- S13primarycompany filing2026-08-28quarterly revenue of $2.7B up 37% with the data center end market up 46%, the NVIDIA strategic partnership connecting Marvell's custom XPUs to NVIDIA's ecosystem, NVIDIA's $2.0B purchase of Marvell convertible preferred stock, and a risk factor naming Broadcom's consolidationbacksC13
- S14primarycompany filing2026-03-11Marvell's own description of developing custom semiconductor solutions tailored to individual customer specifications for AI and data center applications - the same product to the same buyerbacksC13
- S15primarycompany filing2026-07-23capital expenditures of $44.9B in the quarter and purchases of property and equipment of $80,598M in the half against $39,643M, $49.6B of equity and mandatory convertible preferred raised for AI infrastructure, and product sales described as primarily the sale of TPU systemsbacksC32
- S16primarycompany filing2026-07-30anticipated 2026 capital expenditures of approximately $130 billion to $145 billion to support AI effortsbacksC32
- S17primarycompany release2026-06-24the customer's own account of who designed the chip and what Broadcom did, the nine-month design-to-tape-out, the gigawatt-scale deployment with Microsoft beginning in 2026, and the early performance-per-watt claim
OpenAI designed the chip from scratch around its deep understanding of LLM fundamentals, informed by its roadmap of models, kernels, serving systems, and product needs, with partners Broadcom and Celestica, helping industrialize the platform through chip implementation, board, rack system integration, high-performance networking, and scalable production systems. Jalapeño is the first step in a multi-generation compute platform designed for initial deployment by the end of 2026 and expanding in the years ahead, combining OpenAI-designed accelerators with Broadcom silicon implementation, networking, and connectivity technologies; and Celestica's board, rack, and system expertise.
backsC14 - S18primarycompany release2026-04-06the customer's own statement of the agreement, its run-rate revenue above $30 billion from about $9 billion at the end of 2025, and that it trains and runs Claude on AWS Trainium, Google TPUs and NVIDIA GPUs with Amazon as its primary cloud provider
We have signed a new agreement with Google and Broadcom for multiple gigawatts of next-generation TPU capacity that we expect to come online starting in 2027.
backsC09 - S19primarycompany release2026-04-06Google's own statement that TPUs reach Anthropic through Broadcom as well as through Google Cloud
This capacity expansion will be delivered through Google Cloud services, as well as access to Google-built TPUs supplied through Broadcom.
backsC09 - S20primarycompany release2026-06-09Apollo Global Management press release - $35 billion capital solution for Broadcom AI XPV Platform Apollothe financier's own statement of the $35 billion initial tranche, the Blackstone and bank partners, the 20 gigawatt platform through 2028, and that the first transaction funds Anthropic's expansion of more than 1 gigawatt starting mid-2026
The Platform is designed to enable over 20GW in compute capacity for leading frontier AI labs through 2028.
backsC08 - S21primaryindustry data2026-01-20the ASIC share of AI server shipments, GPUs at 69.7%, AI server shipment growth above 28%, the top-five North American cloud providers' capital spending up 40% in 2026, and TPUs being sold to external clients such as Anthropic
The share of ASIC-based AI servers is expected to reach 27.8% by 2026, the highest since 2023, as North American firms like Google and Meta expand their own ASIC efforts. GPUs will remain the leading category, accounting for 69.7% of shipments. TrendForce data show that the combined capital expenditures of the top five North American CSPs-Google, AWS, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle-are expected to increase by 40% YoY in 2026.
backsC30 - S22primaryindustry data2026-09-16the gigawatt base the prize and the driver are struck on, AI servers' share of it at about 25% in 2025 and 33.4% in 2026, the 490.7 GW 2030 projection against 222.6 GW of grid capacity, and the expected grid delays after 2028
Global data center power demand capacity reached 122.9 GW in 2025 and is estimated to rise to 161 GW in 2026. In 2027, continued CapEx expansion by CSPs and sustained overall server shipments are expected to keep annual growth in data center power demand capacity above 30%. AI servers accounted for nearly 25% of total data center power demand capacity in 2025, with their share rising to approximately 33.4% in 2026. This share could potentially exceed 40% in 2027. By 2030, global data center power demand capacity is projected to reach 490.7 GW. Assuming all other electricity demand is fully met, grid capacity available to data centers is estimated at only 222.6 GW. This leaves a supply-demand gap of 268 GW. However, after 2028, delays in grid power delivery are expected to become more frequent, substantially contributing to the growing gap between data center power supply and demand capacity.
backsC31 - S23secondarynews2025-12-12the stated objection on the day: the Q1 fiscal 2026 gross margin guide of about 76.9% against 79% a year earlier, and analysts questioning the $73B backlogbacksC25
- S24secondarynews2026-06-04the stated objection on the day: the fiscal 2026 AI outlook not raised and the chips-only statement, with the close at $418.91 down 12.59% on 79.9 million sharesbacksC25
- S25secondarynews2026-09-03the stated objection on the day: a Q4 guide of about $34.8B against a consensus of about $35.03B, a beat judged too thin for a stock this levered to AIbacksC25
- S26secondarynews2026-09-14the stated objection on the day: Anthropic's chief executive's essay calling for a slower pace of capabilities development, Broadcom shares down 4.8%, and Hock Tan's statement that the fiscal 2027 and 2028 forecasts are intact. The page returns 403 to every non-browser client; read through the search index and cited for the objection onlybacksC25
- S27primarycompany filing2026-09-17the Rule 10b5-1 flag on every open-market row: Henry Samueli's sales all under a plan dated December 16, 2025; Mark Brazeal's, Charlie Kawwas', Ram Velaga's and two directors' sales discretionary; Harry You's two 1,000-share purchasesbacksC33
- S28primarycompany filing2026-06-03Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $22,187M, non-GAAP earnings of $2.44 a diluted share, and the Q3 guide the September print was measured against; read for the prior-quarter comparable and for the repricing episode of June 4, 2026backsC25C38
- S29primarycompany filing2026-06-18the tender offers for six series of 2030-to-2038 notes, upsized from $2.5 billion to $3.0 billion of consideration, with about $5.5 billion tendered and about $2.9 billion accepted - the June leg of the $5,641M of notes repurchased in the quarterbacksC18
- S30primarycompany filing2026-06-18the consideration cap raised from $2.5 billion to $3.0 billion, about $5.5 billion of notes tendered and about $2.9 billion accepted, settling June 18 and 23, 2026backsC18
- S31primaryother2026-09-23Ultra Ethernet Consortium - mission statement and Specification 1.0.3 (ultraethernet.org, home page and specification download) Ultra Ethernet ConsortiumA standards body, not a filer and not a vendor, whose stated purpose is to make the AI scale-out layer open and interoperable across suppliers. That bears directly on the networking half of the moat and it points the WRONG way for the thesis: an interoperable standard is what dissolves an incumbency in scale-out silicon. Specification 1.0 is published and at revision 1.0.3.
Deliver an Ethernet based open, interoperable, high performance, full-communications stack architecture to meet the growing network demands of AI & HPC at scale ... UEC specifically focuses on functionality, performance, TCO, and developer and end-user friendliness, while minimizing changes to only those required and maintaining Ethernet interoperability. ... Backwards compatibility to widely-deployed APIs and definition of new APIs that are better optimized to future workloads and compute architectures.
backsC35 - S32primarycompany filing2026-03-02beneficial ownership as of February 24, 2026, director and officer biographies, the fiscal 2025 annual bonus goals and payout, the 2023 and 2025 Tan PSU awards and their metrics, the other officers' relative-TSR PSUs, and the pledge of 16,175,000 of the chairman's sharesbacksC44C45C46
- S33primarycompany release2026-10-26Bank of America, Blackstone, Citi and Morgan Stanley press release - $63 billion financing structure for AI compute capacity in partnership with Broadcom (PR Newswire) Bank of America, Blackstone, Citi and Morgan Stanleythe lenders' own statement of a second, $63 billion special-purpose-vehicle financing to buy Broadcom accelerators and networking for lease to Anthropic, deliveries from 2027, first lien by Bank of America, Citi and Morgan Stanley, second lien committed by Blackstone alone, and Broadcom's residual value support equal to the first lien amount. The release gives no first lien figure and no filing by Broadcom was found.
Broadcom is providing residual value support to the SPV for the amount equivalent to the first lien portion of the financing.
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