Agilysys
Agilysys makes the software hotels, casinos, cruise ships and company cafeterias use to check guests in, ring up meals and drinks, and run their stockrooms.
Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 →
Revenue grew 15.9% in fiscal 2026 and 14.3% in Q1 2027, but an acquisition supplied part; subscriptions grew about 23% organically.
Business quality3/4 →
Systems of record that take years to swap, and Marriott chose it; but Oracle and a funded Mews sell the same cloud product.
Financial position4/4 ↑
$123.7M of cash, no debt and $68.1M of free cash flow in fiscal 2026; the plan needs no outside money.
Execution record3/4 ↑
Eighteen record revenue quarters and fiscal 2026 above its first guide, but January 2026 missed estimates and guided subscription growth near 20%.
Per share capture3/4 →
Shares rise about half a percent a year from share pay near 7% of revenue; no buybacks; the acquisition was paid in cash.
Potential3/4 ↑
Marriott is a signed rollout across 6,360 hotels already under way, but its size and pace are undisclosed.
Risk profile3/4 →
All revenue comes from hospitality's spending cycle, and the largest growth driver is one rollout whose pace the customer controls.
Valuation2/4 →
About 64 times trailing operating profit and 46 times the guide: the price needs the plan, the margin target and years beyond.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Statements and the Marriott agreement are filed; growth without the acquisition, Marriott's size and retention rest on management or my arithmetic.
The Verdict
We rate Agilysys neutral. It sells the software resorts, casinos and cruise ships run on all day, from the front desk to the bar till, and customers rarely rip it out, so the business is solid. Subscriptions grow fast, though slower once a business it bought is taken out. The price is full, not cheap: it already assumes years of growth and Marriott moving its hotels onto Agilysys, a contract whose size the company will not give, so a disappointment would hurt. The view hinges on Marriott visibly lifting growth, or on the company saying how big it is. A good business, already priced as one.
The long caseHotels short of staff buy software that saves labour and lifts guest spending, and move old systems to the cloud; that need must last as Agilysys grows into it.
The evidence under this - 8 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Agilysys sells hotel property management (front desk, rooms, housekeeping), point of sale for restaurants and bars, inventory and procurement, spa, golf, booking and payments software to hotels, resorts, casinos, cruise lines, corporate and campus food service and stadiums. It reports one segment, all hospitality; its LMS system runs properties of up to 7,000 rooms and interfaces with all core casino management systems.
C44inferencemedium confidence
A property management system and a resort's point of sale run every check-in, folio and bill all day and connect to casino, payment, booking and accounting systems, so replacing one is a multi-month project with retraining and risk to the guest; Marriott itself expects its move to take at least two years.
derivedThe product's interfaces and 24/7 operation (C01); professional services were 22.6% of revenue in fiscal 2026, the cost of each installation (C02); Marriott's own description of a multi-year transformation and management's two-year rollout (C10, C11); maintenance revenue still rising on old licences (C24).
against this
- Agilysys itself wins by taking customers from rivals, and Marriott is replacing its systems, so switching does happen when a better product arrives.
- Most subscriptions renew monthly and only $153.0M sits in contracts over a year (C13); the lock-in is operational, not contractual.
- Cloud systems such as Mews sell faster installation, which lowers the cost of switching for new buyers (C16).
C03facthigh confidence
Subscription revenue was about $137.1M in fiscal 2026, up 30.2%, and 66.6% of recurring revenue. It included $21.3M of subscription revenue from Book4Time, the spa software company bought in August 2024, against $11.2M in fiscal 2025.
C04estimatemedium confidence
Without Book4Time, subscription revenue grew about 23% in fiscal 2026 (about $115.8M against $94.1M), and total revenue about 12.7%.
derivedSubscription revenue of 66.6% of $205.9M and 61.9% of $170.1M from the releases (C03), less the 10-K's Book4Time subscription revenue of $21.3M and $11.2M; total revenue less the same Book4Time figures. Book4Time's services revenue is not disclosed, so organic total revenue is slightly overstated.
against this
- Management calls fiscal 2026 the fifth year of organic subscription growth of at least 25% (C05); its definition of organic is not published and may treat Book4Time's growth since purchase as organic.
- Subscription growth was 24.1% in Q4 fiscal 2026 and 26.1% in Q1 fiscal 2027, both quarters with Book4Time in both periods, so the core rate is at or above 24% (C49, C06).
C11management claimmedium confidence
Management excludes the Marriott project from all reported sales and backlog. It says pilot properties went live across the US and Canada by January 2026, that implementation waves are growing, that the rollout will take at least two years, that Marriott added about 0.2 points of fiscal 2026 subscription growth, and that the fiscal 2027 guide holds 'a pretty conservative estimate' of it; the CFO declined to size it. On the 26 October 2026 call the CEO said well more than 2,000 Marriott properties are live, virtually all select-service implementations are done and the project is moving to full-service, and none of properties, rooms or revenue has reached the halfway mark; the CFO said the guide's Marriott assumption is unchanged and 'no material change' in how it is going. Marriott's revenue is still unsized.
sourceQ4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-05-18primaryQ3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-01-26primaryQ2 fiscal 2027 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-10-26primary
against this
- Marriott's own 10-K warns the transformation could bring delays (C10), and the CEO asked analysts not to expect 'perfect rollout cadence'.
- Nothing about the Marriott volume is filed: the agreement is not an exhibit and the 10-K does not name Marriott (C12).
- 2026-10-27editedThe Q2 fiscal 2027 call gave a live count (well over 2,000 properties) and a progress marker (under halfway) but no revenue figure.
C28estimatemedium confidence
At $97.08 on 28.21M shares the market value is about $2.738B; less $123.7M of cash it is about $2.614B, which is 64.5 times trailing operating income of $40.6M without one-off gains, 54.2 times the reported $48.2M, 7.9 times trailing revenue of $330.3M and about 46 times this year's operating income implied by the guide. The share price is 63.8 times trailing net income.
derivedClose of $97.08 on 2026-09-30 (S15) times 28,205,788 shares on the 10-Q cover (C37); cash from C27; operating income from C25; forward figure is 24% adjusted EBITDA on $370.5M less share pay at 6% of revenue and depreciation and amortisation of about $9.7M, about $57M (C07, C30); trailing net income of $42.9M from the 10-K and 10-Q.
against this
- On management's adjusted EBITDA, which adds back share pay, the multiple is about 29 times the fiscal 2027 guide.
- Trailing free cash flow of about $80M gives a 3.1% yield on enterprise value, flattered by collections ahead of revenue.
- If the Marriott ramp lifts revenue faster than the guide, the forward multiple falls quickly.
C29estimatemedium confidence
For a 6% after-tax yield at 21% tax, operating income would have to reach about $199M, 4.9 times the trailing $40.6M. At a 21% GAAP operating margin, roughly what a 30% adjusted EBITDA margin leaves after share pay and amortisation, that needs revenue near $946M, 2.9 times today's; about seven years of 16% growth.
derivedEnterprise value of $2.614B (C28) times 6% divided by 0.79; margin of 21% is 30% adjusted EBITDA (C30) less share pay of about 6% (C26) and depreciation and amortisation near 3%; growth at the fiscal 2026 rate of 15.9% (C02).
against this
- A 6% yield is a judgement; at 5% the required operating income falls to about $165M.
- At management's ambition of a 30% margin before share pay, a buyer focused on adjusted figures sees revenue of about $660M as enough.
- Marriott alone could add a large block of rooms to a base of $330M of revenue, which the arithmetic cannot price because nothing is disclosed (C11).
C33factmedium confidence
All 9 analysts in the vendor snapshot rate Agilysys Buy and none Hold or Sell; the dated series shows 87.5% positive of 8 analysts in September 2026, against 85.7% of 7 in January 2026.
The company
A big resort is a small city: thousands of rooms, dozens of restaurants and bars, a spa, a golf course, often a casino. Every booking, check-in, drink and bill has to land on the right guest's account, all day, every day.
Agilysys sells the systems that do that: the hotel's main booking-and-billing system, the restaurant tills and the stock-ordering software. Its buyers include casino groups, cruise lines and Marriott. The alternatives are Oracle, Shiji, Infor or a chain writing its own.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Agilysys sells hotel property management (front desk, rooms, housekeeping), point of sale for restaurants and bars, inventory and procurement, spa, golf, booking and payments software to hotels, resorts, casinos, cruise lines, corporate and campus food service and stadiums. It reports one segment, all hospitality; its LMS system runs properties of up to 7,000 rooms and interfaces with all core casino management systems.
C09facthigh confidence
In December 2022 Agilysys announced an agreement with Marriott International to deploy its cloud property management system across Marriott's United States and Canada luxury, premium and select-service hotels 'over the coming years', replacing 'multiple proprietary property management systems that are currently in use'.
C14facthigh confidence
Agilysys's 10-K names Oracle, Shiji and Infor as larger full-service rivals, Maestro as a smaller one, and the in-house property systems of large hotel chains as competition.
C23management claimlow confidence
Management says Q4 fiscal 2026 added 20 new customers averaging 7 products each, 19 of them on subscription, plus 129 sales of further products to existing properties, and calls retention 'world-class' without publishing a rate.
against this
- No retention, churn or net revenue retention rate is disclosed, so 'world-class' cannot be checked (C13).
- Twenty new customers a quarter is small against a base the company does not count, so the cross-sell figures carry most of the growth.
How it makes money
Most of the money comes as fees that repeat: $205.9M of the $319.3M Agilysys took in during fiscal 2026 was subscriptions and support, and it keeps about 79 cents of each of those dollars after running the service.
Installing the software is the second business, $72.2M, kept at a thin 27 cents per dollar. Selling tills and other hardware brought $41.2M and is not growing. Subscriptions renew month by month rather than on long contracts.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C02facthigh confidence
Fiscal 2026 (year to 31 March 2026) revenue was $319.3M, up 15.9%: subscription and maintenance $205.9M, up 21.1%; professional services $72.2M, up 12.4%; products $41.2M, down 0.4%. Gross margin was 62.6%.
C03facthigh confidence
Subscription revenue was about $137.1M in fiscal 2026, up 30.2%, and 66.6% of recurring revenue. It included $21.3M of subscription revenue from Book4Time, the spa software company bought in August 2024, against $11.2M in fiscal 2025.
C47facthigh confidence
Subscription and maintenance gross margin rose from 78.0% to 79.4% in fiscal 2026, while professional services gross margin fell from 31.3% to 27.3% and products from 46.6% to 40.9%.
C13facthigh confidence
At 30 September 2026 remaining performance obligations on contracts longer than one year were $164.0M, 43% due within 12 months, 30% within 24 and 18% within 36 ($153.0M at 30 June 2026). Subscription revenue is recognised over monthly periods on the typical renewal cycle, and contracts of a year or less are excluded.
- 2026-10-26editedre-sourced to the Q2 fiscal 2027 10-Q: $164.0M, up from $153.0M
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (fiscal 2026) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| Subscription | 42.9% | Monthly fees for cloud property, point-of-sale, spa and other modules, priced on rooms, terminals and sites; includes Book4Time. |
| Maintenance | 21.5% | Yearly support fees from customers still on older perpetual licences, growing slowly as new sales move to subscription. |
| Professional services | 22.6% | Installation, configuration, training and integration work when a property goes live, at a gross margin near 27%. |
| Products | 12.9% | Resold point-of-sale terminals and other hardware, plus perpetual software licences, sold with new installations. |
Who runs it
Ramesh Srinivasan has run Agilysys since 2017 and moved it to cloud subscriptions; Dave Wood has been finance chief since 2020. Directors and officers own about 9%, the largest stake a director's fund, and Srinivasan sold nearly a quarter of his shares in August. The yearly bonus rides almost wholly on sales, provided a profit floor is met; nothing pays on cash or per-share results.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C50facthigh confidence
Ramesh Srinivasan has been president and chief executive since January 2017, after running Bally Technologies as chief executive from December 2012 to May 2014; Dave Wood has been chief financial officer since June 2020 and joined the company in 2017.
C51facthigh confidence
At 6 July 2026 directors and executive officers as a group owned 2,450,372 shares, 8.7% of the 28,198,382 outstanding. The largest insider holding is director Michael Kaufman's 4.3%, almost all through MAK Capital Fund; the chief executive held 3.1%. There is one share class.
against this
The chief executive sold 197,410 shares on 5 to 7 August 2026, after the table's date (C35), which takes his stake to about 2.4% and the group's to about 8.0%.
C35facthigh confidence
The chief executive sold 197,410 shares on 5 to 7 August 2026 at $106.60 to $109.63, none under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, about 23% of the 867,454 shares the July 2026 proxy shows him owning; the CFO and general counsel sold on 18 August. Directors bought about 1,000 shares in small lots at $68 to $85 between January and March 2026.
sourceForms 4 filed for Agilysys insiders, 2025-10-27 to…primaryDefinitive proxy statement, 16 July 2026primary
against this
- The CEO still holds about 670,000 shares, and in June 2026 signed a new three-year agreement whose performance units vest only on higher share prices (C36).
- One sale is not a view on the business; it came days after a 7.2% rise and nine months after his last open-market activity.
C52facthigh confidence
The fiscal 2026 annual bonus paid 100% on revenue, threshold $310M, target $320M and maximum $330M, and only if adjusted EBITDA after the bonus exceeded 20% of revenue. Revenue of $319.3M earned 97%, and the committee added 3% at its discretion. The chief executive's bonus is paid in shares; the other officers' long-term awards are restricted units vesting over three years on time alone.
against this
The chief executive's long-term awards do carry performance conditions: his 2023 grant was part performance-vesting, and half his June 2026 grant vests only on share-price hurdles (C36).
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
Swapping a hotel's main system is like changing a plane's engine in flight: months of setup, retraining and risk, with guests in the building. So customers stay.
The evidence is that support fees from customers still on old, bought-outright licences rose about 6% last year to $68.8M, even though nearly every new sale is a subscription. And Marriott, which had written its own systems, chose to buy rather than rebuild.
Hotels pay because 64.9% of hoteliers still report staff shortages, and software that saves front-desk work matters.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C44inferencemedium confidence
A property management system and a resort's point of sale run every check-in, folio and bill all day and connect to casino, payment, booking and accounting systems, so replacing one is a multi-month project with retraining and risk to the guest; Marriott itself expects its move to take at least two years.
derivedThe product's interfaces and 24/7 operation (C01); professional services were 22.6% of revenue in fiscal 2026, the cost of each installation (C02); Marriott's own description of a multi-year transformation and management's two-year rollout (C10, C11); maintenance revenue still rising on old licences (C24).
against this
- Agilysys itself wins by taking customers from rivals, and Marriott is replacing its systems, so switching does happen when a better product arrives.
- Most subscriptions renew monthly and only $153.0M sits in contracts over a year (C13); the lock-in is operational, not contractual.
- Cloud systems such as Mews sell faster installation, which lowers the cost of switching for new buyers (C16).
C24facthigh confidence
Maintenance revenue from customers on older perpetual licences was about $68.8M in fiscal 2026 against $64.8M in fiscal 2025, up about 6%, while nearly all new sales are subscriptions.
C09facthigh confidence
In December 2022 Agilysys announced an agreement with Marriott International to deploy its cloud property management system across Marriott's United States and Canada luxury, premium and select-service hotels 'over the coming years', replacing 'multiple proprietary property management systems that are currently in use'.
C19factmedium confidence
AHLA reports that 64.9% of hoteliers surveyed in December 2024 were still dealing with staffing challenges, and that US hotels paid $125.79B in wages and salaries in 2024.
The threat
Oracle is the giant here: in 2024 Hyatt chose Oracle's cloud system for more than 1,000 hotels at once. Mews, a younger rival, raised $300M in January 2026, says it serves 15,000 hotels, and is building AI assistants to run routine hotel work.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C15facthigh confidence
Hyatt chose Oracle OPERA Cloud in September 2024 as the property management system for its global portfolio, 'more than 1,000 hotels and all-inclusive properties'. Oracle reports hospitality as one of about twenty industries it serves and does not report it separately.
C16factmedium confidence
Mews, a private cloud property system, raised $300M at a $2.5B valuation in January 2026, reported 15,000 customers in 85 countries and SaaS gross profit up 55% in 2025, and said it will embed 'agent-driven systems across the platform'.
C14facthigh confidence
Agilysys's 10-K names Oracle, Shiji and Infor as larger full-service rivals, Maestro as a smaller one, and the in-house property systems of large hotel chains as competition.
The rivals: ORCL, PAR, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.
How big it could get
How big this could get
The United States has over 5 million hotel rooms in about 54,200 hotels, and every one needs a system like this. Marriott alone has 1,065,108 rooms in the US and Canada, about a fifth of that count.
Agilysys does not say what it charges per room or how many rooms run on its software, so the market cannot honestly be turned into dollars. Management puts it at about $16B a year; that is its own estimate.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C18factmedium confidence
The American Hotel & Lodging Association counts 54,200+ properties and over 5 million guest rooms in the United States hotel industry.
C10facthigh confidence
Marriott's own 10-K describes a 'multi-year transformation of our reservations, property management, and loyalty systems' that 'could involve delays, system interruptions'. At the end of 2025 Marriott had 6,360 properties and 1,065,108 rooms in the United States and Canada.
C09facthigh confidence
In December 2022 Agilysys announced an agreement with Marriott International to deploy its cloud property management system across Marriott's United States and Canada luxury, premium and select-service hotels 'over the coming years', replacing 'multiple proprietary property management systems that are currently in use'.
C21management claimlow confidence
Management estimates its addressable market at about $16B of annual recurring revenue.
Who has signed
Marriott agreed in December 2022 to move its US and Canadian hotels, from luxury brands down to mid-range ones, onto Agilysys, over a period of at least two years. No hotel count or dollar value has been published. Beyond that, $153.0M of fees sits in contracts longer than a year.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C09facthigh confidence
In December 2022 Agilysys announced an agreement with Marriott International to deploy its cloud property management system across Marriott's United States and Canada luxury, premium and select-service hotels 'over the coming years', replacing 'multiple proprietary property management systems that are currently in use'.
C11management claimmedium confidence
Management excludes the Marriott project from all reported sales and backlog. It says pilot properties went live across the US and Canada by January 2026, that implementation waves are growing, that the rollout will take at least two years, that Marriott added about 0.2 points of fiscal 2026 subscription growth, and that the fiscal 2027 guide holds 'a pretty conservative estimate' of it; the CFO declined to size it. On the 26 October 2026 call the CEO said well more than 2,000 Marriott properties are live, virtually all select-service implementations are done and the project is moving to full-service, and none of properties, rooms or revenue has reached the halfway mark; the CFO said the guide's Marriott assumption is unchanged and 'no material change' in how it is going. Marriott's revenue is still unsized.
sourceQ4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-05-18primaryQ3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-01-26primaryQ2 fiscal 2027 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-10-26primary
against this
- Marriott's own 10-K warns the transformation could bring delays (C10), and the CEO asked analysts not to expect 'perfect rollout cadence'.
- Nothing about the Marriott volume is filed: the agreement is not an exhibit and the 10-K does not name Marriott (C12).
- 2026-10-27editedThe Q2 fiscal 2027 call gave a live count (well over 2,000 properties) and a progress marker (under halfway) but no revenue figure.
C13facthigh confidence
At 30 September 2026 remaining performance obligations on contracts longer than one year were $164.0M, 43% due within 12 months, 30% within 24 and 18% within 36 ($153.0M at 30 June 2026). Subscription revenue is recognised over monthly periods on the typical renewal cycle, and contracts of a year or less are excluded.
- 2026-10-26editedre-sourced to the Q2 fiscal 2027 10-Q: $164.0M, up from $153.0M
The results
The numbers
Is it growing?Steady
Sales grew 15% over the twelve months to Sep 2026, about the same pace as the 16% in the year to Mar 2026.
Is it profitable?Healthy
Operating margin is 14%, up from 6.6% in the year to Mar 2024.
Does growth pay off?Pays off
Running costs take 49¢ of each sales dollar, down from 59¢ in the year to Mar 2022.
Does it earn good returns?Decent
Each dollar put into the business earns 12% a year after tax, about where it was (7.1%) in the year to Mar 2022.
Is it making cash?Strong
It turned 23% of sales into free cash, $80.3M over the last twelve months.
How steady is it?Steady
Yearly sales growth has ranged from +16% to +22% over the last 5 years.
Are shares being diluted?Creeping
The share count rose 12% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 7.0% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-26. Fiscal years end in March.
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | 12 mo to Sep 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | ||||||
| Sales | $163M | $198M | $237M | $276M | $319M | $344M |
| Sales growth | +19% | +22% | +20% | +16% | +16% | +15% |
| Profit | ||||||
| Gross margin | 62% | 61% | 61% | 62% | 63% | 64% |
| Operating margin | 3.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 13% | 14% |
| Net margin | 4.0% | 7.4% | 36% | 8.4% | 12% | 13% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | ||||||
| Research and development | 28% | 25% | 24% | 23% | 23% | 23% |
| Sales and marketing | 9.1% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| General and admin | 17% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 13% |
| Pay in shares | 8.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% |
| Capital spending | 0.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Cash from operations | $28.5M | $34.5M | $48.2M | $55.1M | $70.0M | $82.1M |
| Free cash flow | $27.3M | $27.2M | $40.1M | $52.3M | $68.1M | $80.3M |
| Balance sheet | ||||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $97.0M | $113M | $145M | $73.0M | $117M | $138M |
| Debt | - | - | $0 | $24.0M | $0 | - |
| Net cash | - | - | $145M | $49.0M | $117M | - |
| Returns and shares | ||||||
| Return on capital | 7.1% | 12% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 11% | 12% |
| Shares (diluted) | 25.5M | 25.9M | 26.8M | 28.3M | 28.4M | 28.6M |
What growth costs
Growing has made Agilysys more profitable: engineering and office costs have risen more slowly than sales, though selling costs have risen a little faster. Engineering per sales dollar has stopped falling for three years, so more improvement depends on management's plan to cut it further.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
C54facthigh confidence
Per sales dollar, product development (the income-statement line, tagged ResearchAndDevelopmentExpense at the same figure) fell from 28.5 cents in fiscal 2022 to 22.8 in fiscal 2026, general and administrative from 17.1 to 13.2 and share pay from 8.9 to 6.8, while sales and marketing rose from 9.1 to 12.5; capital spending stayed under 4 cents. Operating margin rose from 3.9% to 13.5%.
sourceAgilysys XBRL company facts, fiscal 2021 to the four…primaryForm 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 March 2026primary
against this
- Product development has held between 22.6 and 23.9 cents since fiscal 2024, so the recent gain came from administration, not engineering.
- Fiscal 2026 operating income includes $9.2M of one-off employee retention credits (C25).
C30management claimmedium confidence
Management expects adjusted EBITDA to rise from 21.2% of revenue in fiscal 2026 to 24% in fiscal 2027, exiting near 30%, with share-based compensation at 5% to 7% of revenue and product development costs falling to the high teens of revenue through use of AI.
sourceQ4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-05-18primaryQ1 fiscal 2027 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- Professional services gross margin fell from 31.3% to 27.3% in fiscal 2026 on hiring and training (C47).
- Adjusted EBITDA excludes share pay of $21.8M, a real cost charged in GAAP operating income (C26).
The last report (27 Jul)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
14%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
5.7%
Growth from the quarter before
against 3.2% the quarter before that
11¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales
The September quarter was another record: sales up 17.7% to $93.4M and subscriptions up 32.6%. Management raised its yearly subscription growth goal to at least 34%.
On the call it said well over 2,000 Marriott hotels are live but none of hotels, rooms or revenue is near half, and gave no Marriott revenue. It expects an exit pace of 38% to 39% growth.
What it did to the thesisThe call supports our case: the Marriott rollout is moving and the yearly goal looks reachable. But Marriott's size is still unsaid and the shares have risen, so the view stays Neutral.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $0.49 against $0.40 expected; $0.32 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C08estimatemedium confidence
After the Q2 print, the raised guide of at least 34% subscription growth means fiscal 2027 subscription revenue of at least about $184M. With about $40.2M in Q1 and about $44.3M in Q2 (71.2% of $62.2M recurring revenue), the second half has to bring about $99M, roughly $49.6M a quarter. Management's wording that the guide holds a conservative Marriott estimate now sits against a bigger required step. On the call the CFO put the rest of the year at $3.5M to $3.7M of new subscription revenue a quarter from go-lives, enough for the at-least-34% guide, with an exit rate of 38% to 39% growth.
against this
- Q2 subscription growth of 32.6% beat the 28% line and the earlier 32% guide, so the core is speeding up without a disclosed Marriott number (C56).
- The CFO said in May that the guide carries 'a pretty conservative estimate' of Marriott (C11).
- 2026-10-26editedQ2 results raised the guide from 32% to at least 34%; the second-half requirement was recomputed from the Q1 and Q2 subscription figures
- 2026-10-27editedThe Q2 fiscal 2027 call gave the sequential go-live assumption and an exit growth rate of 38% to 39%.
C11management claimmedium confidence
Management excludes the Marriott project from all reported sales and backlog. It says pilot properties went live across the US and Canada by January 2026, that implementation waves are growing, that the rollout will take at least two years, that Marriott added about 0.2 points of fiscal 2026 subscription growth, and that the fiscal 2027 guide holds 'a pretty conservative estimate' of it; the CFO declined to size it. On the 26 October 2026 call the CEO said well more than 2,000 Marriott properties are live, virtually all select-service implementations are done and the project is moving to full-service, and none of properties, rooms or revenue has reached the halfway mark; the CFO said the guide's Marriott assumption is unchanged and 'no material change' in how it is going. Marriott's revenue is still unsized.
sourceQ4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-05-18primaryQ3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-01-26primaryQ2 fiscal 2027 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-10-26primary
against this
- Marriott's own 10-K warns the transformation could bring delays (C10), and the CEO asked analysts not to expect 'perfect rollout cadence'.
- Nothing about the Marriott volume is filed: the agreement is not an exhibit and the 10-K does not name Marriott (C12).
- 2026-10-27editedThe Q2 fiscal 2027 call gave a live count (well over 2,000 properties) and a progress marker (under halfway) but no revenue figure.
C56facthigh confidence
In Q2 fiscal 2027 (quarter to 30 September 2026) revenue was a record $93.4M, up 17.7%; subscription revenue grew 32.6%; recurring revenue was $62.2M; gross margin 64.6%; adjusted EBITDA $24.1M; free cash flow $14.8M. Management raised the fiscal 2027 outlook to revenue of $374M to $378M, subscription growth of at least 34% (from 32%) and adjusted EBITDA of 25% of revenue (from 24%). Remaining performance obligations were about $164.0M at 30 September 2026.
sourceQ2 fiscal 2027 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primaryForm 10-Q for the quarter to 30 September 2026primary
against this
The release says one-time product revenue was 'higher than expected', so part of the revenue beat is hardware and licence sales that do not recur.
- 2026-10-27editedAdded the cohort comparison the build now asks for on a claim that ranks the company's growth.
C57management claimmedium confidence
On the Q2 fiscal 2027 call (26 October 2026) management said well more than 2,000 Marriott properties are live with none of properties, rooms or revenue near halfway; that hardware attach rates on point-of-sale sales are still falling while point-of-sale sales rose enough to lift product revenue; that the central reservation system is on track for beta testing later in the fiscal year; and that the rest of fiscal 2027 assumes $3.5M to $3.7M of new subscription revenue a quarter.
against this
The CEO declined to size Marriott and referred analysts to Marriott's own results, so the live count is a progress marker and not a revenue figure (C11).
What management did with the money
In August 2024 Agilysys paid $145.8M in cash for Book4Time, which makes spa booking software, borrowing $50.0M that it has since repaid. It does not buy back shares, and it now holds $123.7M of cash with no debt.
Insiders in 2026Q3: 0 purchases and 7 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C38facthigh confidence
Agilysys bought Book4Time in August 2024 for $145.8M of net cash, partly funded by a $50.0M revolver draw since repaid in full.
C27facthigh confidence
Agilysys had $123.7M of cash and no borrowings at 30 June 2026, having repaid the $50.0M drawn for Book4Time; its $75.0M revolver matures in August 2027. Fiscal 2026 free cash flow was $68.1M: $70.0M from operations less $1.8M of capital spending.
C37facthigh confidence
Agilysys had 28,205,788 shares outstanding on 17 July 2026, against 28,166,478 at 31 March 2026; diluted weighted shares were 28.42M in Q1 fiscal 2027 against 28.29M a year earlier. It repurchases shares only to cover employee tax withholding ($1.9M in fiscal 2026).
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Full. The price already pays for the plan, the margin target and several years beyond, before the size of the Marriott contract is known.
Share price
$97.08
close,
Price for each $1 of yearly profit
63.5
its 6-year normal 68.8
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
40.9
its 6-year normal 67.7
The shares have been on a roller coaster. They fell 20.0% in one day in January 2026 when casino customers paused buying and management guided growth near 20%, kept falling to a low in April, then recovered most of the loss when growth came back above 24%.
Two things stand out now. In August the chief executive sold 197,410 shares, nearly a quarter of his holding, a week after the raised outlook. And the next report, due around late January, is the second test of whether Marriott is lifting growth.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C31facthigh confidence
The shares reached $145.25 on 28 October 2025 after rising 22.6% the day after the Q2 fiscal 2026 print, fell 20.0% the day after the January 2026 print (113.55 to 90.86), hit $61.50 on 10 April 2026, rose 12.5% after the May guide and 7.2% after July's raise, and closed at $97.08 on 30 September 2026. Over 252 sessions they fell 6.5%: sales per share up 13.8%, the multiple down 17.9%.
C32management claimmedium confidence
On the January 2026 call management reported a slowdown in casino-gaming sales in October and November 2025, and the CFO guided Q4 subscription growth to 'a little bit north of 20%' and next year to 'the 20% range' with larger projects on top; Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.42 missed the vendor estimate of $0.46.
sourceQ3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-01-26primaryAGYS research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest,…secondary
against this
- Q4 subscription growth came in at 24.1% and Q1 fiscal 2027 at 26.1%, above that January guide (C49, C06).
- The CEO said gaming sales recovered in December 2025, the best December in the company's history.
C35facthigh confidence
The chief executive sold 197,410 shares on 5 to 7 August 2026 at $106.60 to $109.63, none under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, about 23% of the 867,454 shares the July 2026 proxy shows him owning; the CFO and general counsel sold on 18 August. Directors bought about 1,000 shares in small lots at $68 to $85 between January and March 2026.
sourceForms 4 filed for Agilysys insiders, 2025-10-27 to…primaryDefinitive proxy statement, 16 July 2026primary
against this
- The CEO still holds about 670,000 shares, and in June 2026 signed a new three-year agreement whose performance units vest only on higher share prices (C36).
- One sale is not a view on the business; it came days after a 7.2% rise and nine months after his last open-market activity.
C34facthigh confidence
Short interest was 1,656,422 shares, 6.2% of the float and 8.17 days of average volume, at FINRA's 15 September 2026 settlement, up 1.6% on the prior settlement.
How we read the multiple
Buyers pay about 64 times Agilysys's yearly operating profit, after taking off its cash and leaving out one-time gains. Put the other way round, each dollar paid earns about 1 cent a year after tax.
To earn 6 cents instead, a common yardstick, Agilysys must:
- Grow operating profit about 4.9 times, to about $199M a year.
- Reach sales near $946M, keeping about 21 cents of profit on each dollar, roughly management's target.
- That is 2.9 times today's $330M of sales: about seven years at the current 16% growth.
Against its own history. Buyers pay a little more for each dollar of sales than they usually have, so the price has not cheapened despite the fall from last year's high.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C28estimatemedium confidence
At $97.08 on 28.21M shares the market value is about $2.738B; less $123.7M of cash it is about $2.614B, which is 64.5 times trailing operating income of $40.6M without one-off gains, 54.2 times the reported $48.2M, 7.9 times trailing revenue of $330.3M and about 46 times this year's operating income implied by the guide. The share price is 63.8 times trailing net income.
derivedClose of $97.08 on 2026-09-30 (S15) times 28,205,788 shares on the 10-Q cover (C37); cash from C27; operating income from C25; forward figure is 24% adjusted EBITDA on $370.5M less share pay at 6% of revenue and depreciation and amortisation of about $9.7M, about $57M (C07, C30); trailing net income of $42.9M from the 10-K and 10-Q.
against this
- On management's adjusted EBITDA, which adds back share pay, the multiple is about 29 times the fiscal 2027 guide.
- Trailing free cash flow of about $80M gives a 3.1% yield on enterprise value, flattered by collections ahead of revenue.
- If the Marriott ramp lifts revenue faster than the guide, the forward multiple falls quickly.
C29estimatemedium confidence
For a 6% after-tax yield at 21% tax, operating income would have to reach about $199M, 4.9 times the trailing $40.6M. At a 21% GAAP operating margin, roughly what a 30% adjusted EBITDA margin leaves after share pay and amortisation, that needs revenue near $946M, 2.9 times today's; about seven years of 16% growth.
derivedEnterprise value of $2.614B (C28) times 6% divided by 0.79; margin of 21% is 30% adjusted EBITDA (C30) less share pay of about 6% (C26) and depreciation and amortisation near 3%; growth at the fiscal 2026 rate of 15.9% (C02).
against this
- A 6% yield is a judgement; at 5% the required operating income falls to about $165M.
- At management's ambition of a 30% margin before share pay, a buyer focused on adjusted figures sees revenue of about $660M as enough.
- Marriott alone could add a large block of rooms to a base of $330M of revenue, which the arithmetic cannot price because nothing is disclosed (C11).
C25facthigh confidence
Fiscal 2026 operating income of $43.0M (13.5% of revenue) included $9.2M of one-off employee retention credits; other gains and charges netted to a $7.7M gain. Over the four quarters to June 2026 operating income was $48.2M, or $40.6M (12.3% of revenue) without net other gains and legal settlements.
C30management claimmedium confidence
Management expects adjusted EBITDA to rise from 21.2% of revenue in fiscal 2026 to 24% in fiscal 2027, exiting near 30%, with share-based compensation at 5% to 7% of revenue and product development costs falling to the high teens of revenue through use of AI.
sourceQ4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-05-18primaryQ1 fiscal 2027 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)primary
against this
- Professional services gross margin fell from 31.3% to 27.3% in fiscal 2026 on hiring and training (C47).
- Adjusted EBITDA excludes share pay of $21.8M, a real cost charged in GAAP operating income (C26).
Priced against its rivals
None of the listed rivals above sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.
Also checked and set aside: Shift4 Payments (a substitute, not the same product).
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Shiji Group, Infor (Hospitality Management Solution), Maestro (Northwind), Mews, In-house PMS of large hotel chains.
Where we disagree with the market
The market believes
A hotel software company growing subscriptions over 30% a year, with the Marriott rollout making it worth a high price.
We believe
A sticky business growing subscriptions about 23-26% on its own, with Marriott real upside that the price already counts.
The headline 30% has three things inside it: the core business, a 2024 purchase that flattered two years of growth, and Marriott, which is kept out of every figure the company reports. Unpicked, the core grows well but not that fast.
We would be wrong if subscriptions grow 32% or more this year while profit margins rise faster than planned.
What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
88%
of 8, 1 Sep
Four months earlier
86%
of 7, 1 May
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C33factmedium confidence
All 9 analysts in the vendor snapshot rate Agilysys Buy and none Hold or Sell; the dated series shows 87.5% positive of 8 analysts in September 2026, against 85.7% of 7 in January 2026.
C04estimatemedium confidence
Without Book4Time, subscription revenue grew about 23% in fiscal 2026 (about $115.8M against $94.1M), and total revenue about 12.7%.
derivedSubscription revenue of 66.6% of $205.9M and 61.9% of $170.1M from the releases (C03), less the 10-K's Book4Time subscription revenue of $21.3M and $11.2M; total revenue less the same Book4Time figures. Book4Time's services revenue is not disclosed, so organic total revenue is slightly overstated.
against this
- Management calls fiscal 2026 the fifth year of organic subscription growth of at least 25% (C05); its definition of organic is not published and may treat Book4Time's growth since purchase as organic.
- Subscription growth was 24.1% in Q4 fiscal 2026 and 26.1% in Q1 fiscal 2027, both quarters with Book4Time in both periods, so the core rate is at or above 24% (C49, C06).
C11management claimmedium confidence
Management excludes the Marriott project from all reported sales and backlog. It says pilot properties went live across the US and Canada by January 2026, that implementation waves are growing, that the rollout will take at least two years, that Marriott added about 0.2 points of fiscal 2026 subscription growth, and that the fiscal 2027 guide holds 'a pretty conservative estimate' of it; the CFO declined to size it. On the 26 October 2026 call the CEO said well more than 2,000 Marriott properties are live, virtually all select-service implementations are done and the project is moving to full-service, and none of properties, rooms or revenue has reached the halfway mark; the CFO said the guide's Marriott assumption is unchanged and 'no material change' in how it is going. Marriott's revenue is still unsized.
sourceQ4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-05-18primaryQ3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-01-26primaryQ2 fiscal 2027 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-10-26primary
against this
- Marriott's own 10-K warns the transformation could bring delays (C10), and the CEO asked analysts not to expect 'perfect rollout cadence'.
- Nothing about the Marriott volume is filed: the agreement is not an exhibit and the 10-K does not name Marriott (C12).
- 2026-10-27editedThe Q2 fiscal 2027 call gave a live count (well over 2,000 properties) and a progress marker (under halfway) but no revenue figure.
C03facthigh confidence
Subscription revenue was about $137.1M in fiscal 2026, up 30.2%, and 66.6% of recurring revenue. It included $21.3M of subscription revenue from Book4Time, the spa software company bought in August 2024, against $11.2M in fiscal 2025.
C29estimatemedium confidence
For a 6% after-tax yield at 21% tax, operating income would have to reach about $199M, 4.9 times the trailing $40.6M. At a 21% GAAP operating margin, roughly what a 30% adjusted EBITDA margin leaves after share pay and amortisation, that needs revenue near $946M, 2.9 times today's; about seven years of 16% growth.
derivedEnterprise value of $2.614B (C28) times 6% divided by 0.79; margin of 21% is 30% adjusted EBITDA (C30) less share pay of about 6% (C26) and depreciation and amortisation near 3%; growth at the fiscal 2026 rate of 15.9% (C02).
against this
- A 6% yield is a judgement; at 5% the required operating income falls to about $165M.
- At management's ambition of a 30% margin before share pay, a buyer focused on adjusted figures sees revenue of about $660M as enough.
- Marriott alone could add a large block of rooms to a base of $330M of revenue, which the arithmetic cannot price because nothing is disclosed (C11).
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- Marriott slips Marriott's own annual report warns its systems overhaul could be delayed; the raised outlook leans on that rollout.
- Funded rivals Oracle won Hyatt's whole portfolio with one cloud system, and Mews has $300M of fresh money and AI assistants.
- One industry Every dollar comes from hospitality; a travel slump would delay hotel and casino projects, as the casino pause showed in late 2025.
- Insiders selling The chief executive sold nearly a quarter of his shares in August, outside any pre-arranged plan.
- Share pay Pay in shares costs about 7 cents of every sales dollar, which the company's preferred profit measure leaves out.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C11management claimmedium confidence
Management excludes the Marriott project from all reported sales and backlog. It says pilot properties went live across the US and Canada by January 2026, that implementation waves are growing, that the rollout will take at least two years, that Marriott added about 0.2 points of fiscal 2026 subscription growth, and that the fiscal 2027 guide holds 'a pretty conservative estimate' of it; the CFO declined to size it. On the 26 October 2026 call the CEO said well more than 2,000 Marriott properties are live, virtually all select-service implementations are done and the project is moving to full-service, and none of properties, rooms or revenue has reached the halfway mark; the CFO said the guide's Marriott assumption is unchanged and 'no material change' in how it is going. Marriott's revenue is still unsized.
sourceQ4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-05-18primaryQ3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-01-26primaryQ2 fiscal 2027 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-10-26primary
against this
- Marriott's own 10-K warns the transformation could bring delays (C10), and the CEO asked analysts not to expect 'perfect rollout cadence'.
- Nothing about the Marriott volume is filed: the agreement is not an exhibit and the 10-K does not name Marriott (C12).
- 2026-10-27editedThe Q2 fiscal 2027 call gave a live count (well over 2,000 properties) and a progress marker (under halfway) but no revenue figure.
C10facthigh confidence
Marriott's own 10-K describes a 'multi-year transformation of our reservations, property management, and loyalty systems' that 'could involve delays, system interruptions'. At the end of 2025 Marriott had 6,360 properties and 1,065,108 rooms in the United States and Canada.
C15facthigh confidence
Hyatt chose Oracle OPERA Cloud in September 2024 as the property management system for its global portfolio, 'more than 1,000 hotels and all-inclusive properties'. Oracle reports hospitality as one of about twenty industries it serves and does not report it separately.
C16factmedium confidence
Mews, a private cloud property system, raised $300M at a $2.5B valuation in January 2026, reported 15,000 customers in 85 countries and SaaS gross profit up 55% in 2025, and said it will embed 'agent-driven systems across the platform'.
C20factmedium confidence
AHLA projected US hotel occupancy at 63.38% for 2025, 2.42 points below 2019's 65.80% and barely above 2023 and 2024, citing Oxford Economics and STR.
C35facthigh confidence
The chief executive sold 197,410 shares on 5 to 7 August 2026 at $106.60 to $109.63, none under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, about 23% of the 867,454 shares the July 2026 proxy shows him owning; the CFO and general counsel sold on 18 August. Directors bought about 1,000 shares in small lots at $68 to $85 between January and March 2026.
sourceForms 4 filed for Agilysys insiders, 2025-10-27 to…primaryDefinitive proxy statement, 16 July 2026primary
against this
- The CEO still holds about 670,000 shares, and in June 2026 signed a new three-year agreement whose performance units vest only on higher share prices (C36).
- One sale is not a view on the business; it came days after a 7.2% rise and nine months after his last open-market activity.
C26facthigh confidence
Share-based compensation was $21.8M in fiscal 2026 (6.8% of revenue), up from $17.8M, and $6.0M in Q1 fiscal 2027. Unrecognised share pay on restricted stock units was $23.9M at 31 March 2026.
What we still do not know
- How many Marriott hotels are live, and how much they pay.
- How many customers renew each year: the company calls it world-class but publishes no figure.
- What hotels spend on this software per room, and what share each vendor holds.
- How management counts growth without the 2024 purchase: our arithmetic says about 23%, theirs 25% or more.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
C11management claimmedium confidence
Management excludes the Marriott project from all reported sales and backlog. It says pilot properties went live across the US and Canada by January 2026, that implementation waves are growing, that the rollout will take at least two years, that Marriott added about 0.2 points of fiscal 2026 subscription growth, and that the fiscal 2027 guide holds 'a pretty conservative estimate' of it; the CFO declined to size it. On the 26 October 2026 call the CEO said well more than 2,000 Marriott properties are live, virtually all select-service implementations are done and the project is moving to full-service, and none of properties, rooms or revenue has reached the halfway mark; the CFO said the guide's Marriott assumption is unchanged and 'no material change' in how it is going. Marriott's revenue is still unsized.
sourceQ4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-05-18primaryQ3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-01-26primaryQ2 fiscal 2027 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-10-26primary
against this
- Marriott's own 10-K warns the transformation could bring delays (C10), and the CEO asked analysts not to expect 'perfect rollout cadence'.
- Nothing about the Marriott volume is filed: the agreement is not an exhibit and the 10-K does not name Marriott (C12).
- 2026-10-27editedThe Q2 fiscal 2027 call gave a live count (well over 2,000 properties) and a progress marker (under halfway) but no revenue figure.
C23management claimlow confidence
Management says Q4 fiscal 2026 added 20 new customers averaging 7 products each, 19 of them on subscription, plus 129 sales of further products to existing properties, and calls retention 'world-class' without publishing a rate.
against this
- No retention, churn or net revenue retention rate is disclosed, so 'world-class' cannot be checked (C13).
- Twenty new customers a quarter is small against a base the company does not count, so the cross-sell figures carry most of the growth.
C04estimatemedium confidence
Without Book4Time, subscription revenue grew about 23% in fiscal 2026 (about $115.8M against $94.1M), and total revenue about 12.7%.
derivedSubscription revenue of 66.6% of $205.9M and 61.9% of $170.1M from the releases (C03), less the 10-K's Book4Time subscription revenue of $21.3M and $11.2M; total revenue less the same Book4Time figures. Book4Time's services revenue is not disclosed, so organic total revenue is slightly overstated.
against this
- Management calls fiscal 2026 the fifth year of organic subscription growth of at least 25% (C05); its definition of organic is not published and may treat Book4Time's growth since purchase as organic.
- Subscription growth was 24.1% in Q4 fiscal 2026 and 26.1% in Q1 fiscal 2027, both quarters with Book4Time in both periods, so the core rate is at or above 24% (C49, C06).
C21management claimlow confidence
Management estimates its addressable market at about $16B of annual recurring revenue.
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveA cheaper price on an unchanged business
It needs:
- ○The business, after cash, falls to 35 times its yearly operating profit.about ≈$62.84 today, 35% below the last close
- Neutral→AttractiveMarriott shows up in the numbers
It needs all of:
- ○Subscription sales grow 32% or more in fiscal 2027, shown in the filings rather than guided.checked at the next results, due by 26 Jan
- ○Agilysys gives Marriott's revenue, or says over half of its hotels, rooms or revenue are live.checked at the next results, due by 26 Jan
We would also be wrong if
- Subscription growth falls below 20% for two quarters in a row.
- Agilysys or Marriott announces a pause, cut or delay to the rollout.
- Support fees from older licences fall on a year earlier.
What is coming
- 26 January 2027 Q3 fiscal 2027 results: Whether the second half reaches the roughly $49.6M a quarter of subscription revenue the raised guide needs, and whether Marriott is sized.
Every dated event ahead
- 26 January 2027 Q3 fiscal 2027 results: Whether the second half reaches the roughly $49.6M a quarter of subscription revenue the raised guide needs, and whether Marriott is sized.
- March 2027 First beta sites for the AI revenue-intelligence and central reservation modules: Whether the AI-native modules reach live customers on schedule, the first evidence they add revenue rather than only defend against AI rivals.
- May 2027 Q4 fiscal 2027 results and the fiscal 2028 outlook: Whether adjusted EBITDA exits near 30% of revenue as guided and product development falls toward the high teens of revenue.
- August 2027 $75.0M revolving credit facility matures: Little on its own with no borrowings; a larger renewal would signal another cash acquisition like Book4Time.
Since we wrote this
Written
1 Oct
Price the thesis read
$97.08
30 Sep
- 27 OctEarningsThe call put Marriott past 2,000 hotels and none near halfwayThe call gave a Marriott live count and a 38-39% exit growth pace, but no Marriott revenue and the yearly growth is not yet filed, so the view holds.
- 26 OctEarningsSubscriptions grew 32.6% and the yearly goal rose to 34%Cleared the 28% test; the Marriott size is still unknown and the price rose about 24%, so the view held.
- 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
- 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
- 1 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionA hard-to-replace hotel software business, but the price already pays for years of growth and an undisclosed Marriott ramp.
Also checked 3 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 22
Where this came from
Sources - 22
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-05-21Item 1 products and competitors, risk factors on AI and hospitality, revenue by category, Book4Time subscription revenue, employee retention credits, share pay, debt, cash flows, remaining performance obligations, headcount, addressable market estimate, international sharebacksC01C02C03C12C14C21C24C25C26C27C37C38C39C41C47C50C53C54
- S03primarycompany filing2026-05-18subscription revenue growth and share of recurring revenue for Q4 and the year, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, fiscal 2027 guidancebacksC02C03C24C49
- S04primarycompany filing2026-07-27statements, share count on the cover, remaining performance obligations, subscription recognition policybacksC06C25C26C27C37
- S05primarytranscript2026-05-18Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-05-18data/cache/transcripts/AGYS-2026Q4.jsonmanagement on Marriott, organic growth, retention, pricing basis, AI modules and margin path; 17 analyst turns from 7 analysts, three asking how much of the guide is Marriott
we're not going to break out our organic revenue growth
backsC03C05C11C22C23C24C30C40C49 - S06primarycompany filing2026-07-27raised fiscal 2027 guidance, subscription growth of 26.1%, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow reconciliationsbacksC06C07C30
- S07primarycompany filing2022-12-15scope of the Marriott agreement: US and Canada luxury, premium and select-service hotels, replacing proprietary systems; no volume or termbacksC09
- S08primarycompany filing2026-02-10the customer's own description of its multi-year property-management transformation and its risk of delay; 6,360 US and Canada properties with 1,065,108 roomsbacksC10
- S09primarytranscript2026-01-26Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-01-26data/cache/transcripts/AGYS-2026Q3.jsonthe casino-gaming sales slowdown, Q4 subscription guide, Marriott pilots completed
PMS pilot property implementations have been completed successfully across the U.S. and Canada.
backsC11C32C55 - S10primarycompany filing2026-06-22hospitality listed as one of the industries Oracle's applications serve; no separate hospitality reportingbacksC15
- S11primarycompany release2024-09-17a chain-wide cloud PMS win for the largest rival
With OPERA Cloud, Hyatt properties will be able to standardize its operations and data management across more than 1,000 hotels and all-inclusive properties.
backsC15 - S12primaryother2026-01-22$300M raise at a $2.5B valuation, 15,000 customers in 85 countries, SaaS gross profit up 55% in 2025
Investment values Mews at $2.5 billion ... announced it has raised $300 million in a Series D ... during which SaaS gross profit increased by 55% ... A customer base of 15,000, with 132,000+ monthly active hoteliers in 85 countries ... embedding agent-driven systems across the platform to automate complex workflows
backsC16 - S13primaryindustry data2026-10-01the count of US hotel properties and rooms
There are 54,200+ properties, over 5 million guest rooms, and 1.1 billion+ guest nights annually in the United States hotel industry.
backsC18 - S14primaryindustry data2025-01-31staffing shortages, 2024 wages of $125.79B, occupancy projected at 63.38% for 2025 against 65.80% in 2019
A December 2024 survey by AHLA and AHLA Gold Partner Hireology revealed that 64.9% of respondents are still dealing with staffing challenges. ... U.S. hotels paid more than the projected amount in wages and salaries in 2024: $125.79 billion ... U.S. hotel occupancy is projected to reach 63.38% in 2025, just 2.42 percentage points shy of the 2019 level of 65.80%
backsC19C20 - S15secondaryvendor data2026-10-01AGYS research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, headcount), frozen 2026-10-01content/AGYS/research-pack.jsonclose of $97.08 on 2026-09-30, daily bars, price move decomposition, analyst split and its history, earnings estimates, short interest, headcount seriesbacksC31C32C33C34C39
- S16primarycompany filing2026-10-0118 open-market sales, 16 of them discretionary, including the CEO's 197,410 shares in August 2026; 16 small director purchasesbacksC35
- S17primarycompany filing2026-07-16beneficial ownership at 6 July 2026: CEO 867,454 shares, MAK Capital 1.2M, BlackRock 13.8%; the 13-person directors and officers total of 2,450,372 shares (8.7%); the fiscal 2026 revenue bonus goals, adjusted EBITDA condition and payouts; time-vesting RSUs for the other officers; executive biographiesbacksC35C50C51C52
- S18primarycompany filing2026-06-22three-year term, 78,269 RSUs, half vesting on 20-day share-price hurdlesbacksC36
- S19primarycompany filing2026-10-04Agilysys XBRL company facts, fiscal 2021 to the four quarters to June 2026, frozen as content/AGYS/financials.jsoncontent/AGYS/financials.jsonrevenue, product development (ResearchAndDevelopmentExpense), sales and marketing, general and administrative, share pay, capital spending, operating income and diluted share counts per fiscal yearbacksC53C54
- S20secondaryvendor data2026-10-04Earnings calendar saved by the daily routine, content/calendar/2026-10-04.json (FMP earnings, per symbol)content/calendar/2026-10-04.jsonthe next results date, 26 October 2026
"AGYS": {"archived": false, "next": {"date": "2026-10-26"
backsC55 - S21primarycompany filing2026-10-26Q2 revenue, subscription growth, raised full-year guide and EBITDA outlook
The Company is raising full year subscription revenue growth guidance of at least 32% year-over-year to at least 34%
backsC56 - S22primarycompany filing2026-10-26remaining performance obligations of about $164.0 million
Remaining performance obligations represent the transaction price of contracts for which products have not been delivered
backsC13C56 - S23primarytranscript2026-10-26Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-10-26data/cache/transcripts/AGYS-2027Q2.jsonMarriott live count and progress marker, the go-lives assumption behind the 34% guide, the hardware attach rate and the CRS beta timing; six analysts in the question section
well more than 2,000 properties are live
backsC08C11C57