← All thesesPARNeutralMedium convictionFriday 23 October 2026עברית

PAR Technology

Software that runs the tills, loyalty apps and back offices of big restaurant chains such as McDonald's and Burger King, and of convenience-store chains.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 →

ARR up 17%, 12% organic, and revenue up 19%; but organic sites fell 2.6%, part of the rise was bought, and hardware leans on McDonald's.

Business quality3/4 →

Decades as an approved supplier at McDonald's and Yum and decade-long rollouts show chains stay; but they approve several suppliers and Toast is moving up.

Financial position3/4 ↑

$433M of low-coupon notes against $77M of cash; $53M falls due in 2027, the rest in 2030 and 2031, and cash use has nearly stopped.

Execution record2/4 ↑

2025 ARR missed even a lowered bonus target, and the ARR and site measures changed shape twice in 2026; the raised guide offsets it.

Per share capture2/4 →

Shares issued for Bridg and old notes, about $28M a year of stock pay, and 2031 notes that convert into a third more shares.

Potential2/4 →

The signed Burger King and Papa John's rollouts are in the guide; any speed-up beyond them and AI revenue are expected, not signed.

Risk profile3/4 ↓

One serious concentration: McDonald's was 27% of Q2 revenue, and with Yum and Dairy Queen over a third of 2025's.

Valuation3/4 ↑

About 2.1 times 2026 sales and 21 times guided EBITDA: fair for 10% growth with rising margins, with the acceleration and AI not paid for.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Statements, debt, customers and holders are filed; the acceleration, the rollouts' pace and AI rest on management's word.

The bet · 2-3 years
Safe, little upside1.1×

If it works 1.1× · if it fails you keep about 79%.

The Verdict

We rate PAR Technology Neutral. The business is mixed: chains stay with it for decades, but McDonald's alone is over a quarter of sales, and growth without acquisitions is 12% while the number of its own sites shrinks. The price is fair: about 2.1 times this year's sales pays for the slower growth analysts expect next year, and nothing for the speed-up management promises. As a bet it is expensive but defensive: if its new AI tools and Bridg data business succeed, the shares gain little, and if they never earn, the core business still holds most of today's value.

The long caseA supplier already inside thousands of chain restaurants can sell them AI built on the data it holds.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C04facthigh confidence
Recurring revenue (ARR) was $338.0M at the end of June 2026, up 17.3% in a year; without Bridg it was $323.6M, up 12.3%, and Bridg added $14.4M.
against this

Organic ARR fell from $317.2M in December to $315.7M in March when Punchh dropped customers on deeply discounted contracts (C13), so a year's growth includes that dip.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-23
C05facthigh confidence
Active sites were 174,300 at the end of June 2026: 145,900 organic, down 2.6% from 149,800 a year earlier, and 28,400 from Bridg.
against this

Management says the sites lost were low-priced Punchh contracts it chose to end (C13), and ARR per site rose.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-23
C08facthigh confidence
McDonald's was 27% of PAR's revenue in Q2 2026 against 18% a year earlier, and 26% of the first half; it was 21% of 2025, 15% of 2024 and 12% of 2023. Yum was 8% and Dairy Queen 7% of 2025 revenue.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-23
C26inferencemedium confidence
At $18.17 the business is valued at about $1.1B: 2.2 times trailing revenue, 2.1 times the 2026 guidance midpoint and about 21 times guided adjusted EBITDA, against a six-year median of about 5.2 times sales on the vendor's figures.
against this
  • Adjusted EBITDA adds back $28M a year of stock pay (C24), so on a GAAP basis the business still loses money.
  • The vendor's EV/sales reads 2.35, a little higher, on its own debt figure.
current state · 2026-10-22written 2026-10-23
C29factmedium confidence
Ten analysts rate PAR a buy and two a hold; in the dated series the positive share fell from 90% of ten in February to 77.8% of nine in October. Consensus estimates are $520.2M for 2026 and $571.8M for 2027, growth of about 10%.
current state · 2026-10-22written 2026-10-23
C35estimatelow confidence
A paid AI add-on worth about $600 a site a year is this thesis's stated judgement: a little above what Bridg earns per site and under a third of PAR's average, since nothing about PAR Intelligence is priced yet.
against this

Management says monetisation may come through premium features and higher attach rather than a separate price, which would leave no add-on revenue to count.

forwardwritten 2026-10-23
01

The company

PAR Technology makes the software behind the counter of chain restaurants and convenience stores: the till that takes the order, the app that gives the regular a free coffee, online ordering, payments and the reports headquarters reads each morning. It also sells the terminals and installs them.

Its buyers are chains with hundreds or thousands of franchised stores that want every store on one system. McDonald's has approved PAR since 1980, Yum since 1983 and Dairy Queen since 2018, and more chains now buy several of its products at once.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C01facthigh confidence
PAR sells restaurant and convenience-store chains point-of-sale software (PAR POS), Punchh loyalty, online ordering, payments, back-office tools (PAR OPS) and PAR Retail loyalty, plus the terminals and installation around them. It reports one segment after selling its government business, and had 1,809 staff at the end of 2025.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-23
C09facthigh confidence
PAR has been an approved technology provider to McDonald's and its franchisees since 1980, to Yum since 1983 and to Dairy Queen since 2018, and more than 600 partners integrate with its software.
against this

The 10-K says many larger customers have approved several suppliers of similar software and hardware, so approval is not exclusivity.

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-23
C12management claimmedium confidence
Nearly 90% of new operations-software deals in Q1 2026 were multi-product while the average customer still used fewer than two core products, and by Q2 the chief executive said nearly all new deals were platform deals; PAR Ordering won more than half its competitive deals.
against this

Organic sites shrank (C05): selling more to each customer has not yet meant more customers.

current state · 2026-08-06written 2026-10-23

How it makes money

Most of the money is a monthly fee for each store running PAR's software: about $1,940 a store a year on average, adding up to $338.0M of yearly recurring revenue in June 2026. Hardware and installation bring in the rest, with much thinner margins. Sales grew 30.2% to $455.5M in 2025, and one customer, McDonald's, paid 21% of it.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C02facthigh confidence
2025 revenue rose 30.2% to $455.5M: subscriptions $291.2M, hardware $106.4M and professional services $58.0M. The net loss from continuing operations was $84.7M, and adjusted EBITDA was $23.0M against a loss of $6.4M in 2024.
against this

Part of the 2025 rise was acquired: the 2024 purchases of Stuzo and Delaget were in the base for only part of 2024.

historical · FY2025written 2026-10-23
C03facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue rose 18.7% to $133.4M. Subscriptions grew 16.0% to $83.4M, of which $4.2M came from Bridg and $7.3M from more revenue per site; hardware grew 30.6% to $35.1M on one large customer's refresh; services grew 9.5% to $14.9M. The net loss was $16.9M and adjusted EBITDA $14.3M, $1.3M of it from that one hardware project.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-23
C04facthigh confidence
Recurring revenue (ARR) was $338.0M at the end of June 2026, up 17.3% in a year; without Bridg it was $323.6M, up 12.3%, and Bridg added $14.4M.
against this

Organic ARR fell from $317.2M in December to $315.7M in March when Punchh dropped customers on deeply discounted contracts (C13), so a year's growth includes that dip.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-23
C05facthigh confidence
Active sites were 174,300 at the end of June 2026: 145,900 organic, down 2.6% from 149,800 a year earlier, and 28,400 from Bridg.
against this

Management says the sites lost were low-priced Punchh contracts it chose to end (C13), and ARR per site rose.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-23
C08facthigh confidence
McDonald's was 27% of PAR's revenue in Q2 2026 against 18% a year earlier, and 26% of the first half; it was 21% of 2025, 15% of 2024 and 12% of 2023. Yum was 8% and Dairy Queen 7% of 2025 revenue.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-23
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (FY2025)How it earns it
Subscription software64%Point of sale, loyalty, ordering, payments, back office and convenience-store loyalty, billed per site.
Hardware23%Counter terminals, kiosks and tablets, lifted in 2026 by one large customer's refresh.
Professional services13%Installation, repair, support and custom development.

Who runs it

Savneet Singh has run PAR since 2019 and turned an old hardware and government contractor into a restaurant software company. Bryan Menar has been finance chief since 2017. Singh owns 1.6% counting options; directors and officers 2.3%.

His 2025 bonus paid 95% even though recurring revenue missed a target that had been lowered in mid-year. Voss Capital, the largest holder at 13.2%, kept buying shares on the open market down to $14.34, and two directors bought too.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C34facthigh confidence
Savneet Singh has been chief executive since March 2019, after three months as interim and a year on the board; Bryan Menar has been finance chief since January 2017, and James Stoffel chairman since June 2023.
current state · 2026-04-16written 2026-10-23
C30facthigh confidence
In April 2026 Voss Capital owned 13.2% of PAR, Capital Research 7.8%, FMR 7.0%, BlackRock 6.9% and T. Rowe Price 6.3%; the chief executive owned 1.6% including 575,000 options, and directors and officers 2.3%.
current state · 2026-04-08written 2026-10-23
C31facthigh confidence
The 2025 bonus paid on ARR and adjusted EBITDA equally. The ARR target was cut in June 2025 from $328.3M to $326.4M; actual ARR was $315.4M and the combined payout 95%. Half the chief executive's equity vests on total return against peers over three years.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-23
C32facthigh confidence
Voss Capital bought about 1.82M shares on the open market from December 2025 to June 2026, at prices falling from about $40 to $14.34; directors Narinder Singh and Keith Pascal bought 11,518 shares at $17.36 and 13,000 at $15.16. Of 14 insider sales, 13 were under trading plans; the one that was not was 11,829 shares at $18.75 by the president of growth and AI.
historical · December 2025 to August 2026written 2026-10-23
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Changing a chain's till system means retraining staff and rewiring the kitchen screens, delivery apps and loyalty program in every store, franchise by franchise. So chains choose rarely and sign for years: Papa John's chose PAR for a decade, and McDonald's has stayed since 1980.

Even its biggest rival agrees that large chains are easier to keep than small restaurants. The weak spot is price: in early 2026 PAR's loyalty arm dropped customers who were paying about 80% below its list price.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C09facthigh confidence
PAR has been an approved technology provider to McDonald's and its franchisees since 1980, to Yum since 1983 and to Dairy Queen since 2018, and more than 600 partners integrate with its software.
against this

The 10-K says many larger customers have approved several suppliers of similar software and hardware, so approval is not exclusivity.

current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-23
C08facthigh confidence
McDonald's was 27% of PAR's revenue in Q2 2026 against 18% a year earlier, and 26% of the first half; it was 21% of 2025, 15% of 2024 and 12% of 2023. Yum was 8% and Dairy Queen 7% of 2025 revenue.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-23
C11management claimmedium confidence
Papa John's chose PAR for a decade-long partnership across its 3,200 sites, using PAR POS and PAR OPS; an analyst put the price at about $4,500 a store a year and the chief executive called it market pricing. PAR POS alone booked over $25M in the quarter.
against this

The $4,500 is an analyst's figure that management did not confirm, and no contract or term is filed.

historical · Q4 2025written 2026-10-23
C15facthigh confidence
Toast had about 164,000 locations at the end of 2025, up 22%, processing about $195B of card payments a year, and estimates its US locations are about 20% of the US restaurant market. It names cloud and legacy point-of-sale platforms as its rivals and says it is pursuing enterprise and mid-market chains, though most customers are small.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-23
C13management claimmedium confidence
Punchh ended contracts with a few customers paying about 80% below standard price in early 2026; management says that is why organic revenue per engagement site rose 27% and that no more such exits remain.
against this

A rise in revenue per site made by removing low-priced sites is arithmetic, not pricing power.

historical · Q1 2026written 2026-10-23

The threat

Toast, which runs about 164,000 mostly small restaurants, is moving up to bigger chains and has its own AI assistant. NCR Voyix's older Aloha system and Oracle's are the incumbents PAR replaces, and Olo, the main ordering rival, is now privately owned.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C15facthigh confidence
Toast had about 164,000 locations at the end of 2025, up 22%, processing about $195B of card payments a year, and estimates its US locations are about 20% of the US restaurant market. It names cloud and legacy point-of-sale platforms as its rivals and says it is pursuing enterprise and mid-market chains, though most customers are small.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-23
C16facthigh confidence
NCR Voyix's Restaurants segment, which sells Aloha point of sale and back office to quick-service, table-service and fast-casual restaurants of all sizes, had $818M of revenue in 2025, about 30% of the company's $2,687M.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-23
C18facthigh confidence
Oracle lists hospitality as one of about twenty industries its applications serve and reports no figure for its restaurant point of sale, Simphony.
current state · 2026-05-31written 2026-10-23
C17facthigh confidence
Thoma Bravo completed its take-private of Olo, the enterprise restaurant ordering company, on 12 September 2025, so PAR Ordering's closest rival no longer reports publicly.
historical · 2025-09-12written 2026-10-23
C43facthigh confidence
Toast IQ is a conversational AI assistant built into Toast's platform that uses real-time and historical data to answer operators' questions and take actions inside the Toast system.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-23

The rivals: TOST, TOST, VYX, ORCL, AGYS, and 5 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
TOSTToastPriced against it: YesRestaurant and convenience-store software and hardwareOn saleYes
Toast IQPAR Intelligence and BridgOn sale
VYXNCR Voyix (Aloha)Priced against it: YesRestaurant and convenience-store software and hardwareOn saleYes
ORCLOracle SimphonyPriced against it: One segment onlyRestaurant and convenience-store software and hardwareOn saleOne segment only
PrivateOloPriced against it: PrivateRestaurant and convenience-store software and hardwareOn salePrivate
PrivateQuPriced against it: PrivateRestaurant and convenience-store software and hardwareOn salePrivate
PrivatePaytronix and ThanxPriced against it: PrivateRestaurant and convenience-store software and hardwareOn salePrivate
In-houseChains' own systemsPriced against it: In-houseRestaurant and convenience-store software and hardwareOn saleIn-house
In-houseChains' own data and marketing teamsPriced against it: In-housePAR Intelligence and BridgOn saleIn-house
AGYSAgilysysPriced against it: One segment only-On saleOne segment only
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

There are 151,975 convenience stores in the US, and chains with 500 or more stores own 33,810 of them. Nobody counts how many US restaurants belong to big chains; Toast reckons it already serves about a fifth of all US restaurants.

PAR earns about $1,940 a store today, while Papa John's pays about $4,500 for the full system, so most of the room is selling more to the chains it already serves.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C19facthigh confidence
NACS and NIQ counted 151,975 US convenience stores at the end of 2025, down 0.2%; 63% are owned by companies with ten or fewer stores, and companies with 500 or more stores own 33,810, or 22.2%.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-23
C15facthigh confidence
Toast had about 164,000 locations at the end of 2025, up 22%, processing about $195B of card payments a year, and estimates its US locations are about 20% of the US restaurant market. It names cloud and legacy point-of-sale platforms as its rivals and says it is pursuing enterprise and mid-market chains, though most customers are small.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-23
C04facthigh confidence
Recurring revenue (ARR) was $338.0M at the end of June 2026, up 17.3% in a year; without Bridg it was $323.6M, up 12.3%, and Bridg added $14.4M.
against this

Organic ARR fell from $317.2M in December to $315.7M in March when Punchh dropped customers on deeply discounted contracts (C13), so a year's growth includes that dip.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-23
C11management claimmedium confidence
Papa John's chose PAR for a decade-long partnership across its 3,200 sites, using PAR POS and PAR OPS; an analyst put the price at about $4,500 a store a year and the chief executive called it market pricing. PAR POS alone booked over $25M in the quarter.
against this

The $4,500 is an analyst's figure that management did not confirm, and no contract or term is filed.

historical · Q4 2025written 2026-10-23

Who has signed

Burger King is moving its US restaurants onto PAR's till, more than 3,000 of them due in 2026. Papa John's signed a decade-long deal for its 3,200 stores, live by 2027. Two customers signed for Bridg through 2029. None of these contracts is filed.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C10management claimmedium confidence
Management said PAR POS was going live at over 400 Burger King sites a month with more than 3,000 more due in 2026, and that Papa John's would start installing PAR POS and Data Central late in 2026 for all its US restaurants, fully live by 2027.
against this

The Burger King rollout had paused and only resumed in late 2025, on the Q4 call's own account, and franchisees set the pace store by store.

current state · 2026-05-07written 2026-10-23
C11management claimmedium confidence
Papa John's chose PAR for a decade-long partnership across its 3,200 sites, using PAR POS and PAR OPS; an analyst put the price at about $4,500 a store a year and the chief executive called it market pricing. PAR POS alone booked over $25M in the quarter.
against this

The $4,500 is an analyst's figure that management did not confirm, and no contract or term is filed.

historical · Q4 2025written 2026-10-23
C36management claimmedium confidence
Management said Bridg signed two customers in its first months under PAR, one an existing PAR restaurant customer, adding over $1.3M of committed ARR on agreements running through 2029.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-23
Where the growth is coming from, business by business

Where the growth is coming from

BusinessShare of revenueGrowth: last quarterLast half-yearLast year
Subscription Service63%+16.0%+15.4%+25.9%
Hardware26%+30.6%+32.1%+32.4%
Professional Service11%+9.5%+14.3%+8.6%
Whole company100%+18.7%+19.0%+25.0%

The filed split through 2026-06-30. These rates are not carried forward: the reading below says why.

How we read it: The score reads the software line: hardware's 32% is McDonald's refresh, which management calls one-off, so it is not carried forward.

04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Steady

Sales grew 19% over the twelve months to Jun 2026, slower than the 30% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $283MDec 2022: $262MDec 2023: $277MDec 2024: $350MDec 2025: $456M12 mo to Jun 2026: $497M$283M$497M
Is it profitable?Losing

Operating margin is −13%, up from −26% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: −23%Dec 2022: −26%Dec 2023: −26%Dec 2024: −23%Dec 2025: −15%12 mo to Jun 2026: −13%−23%−13%
Does growth pay off?Pays off

Running costs take 55¢ of each sales dollar, up from 42¢ in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: 42¢Dec 2022: 57¢Dec 2023: 58¢Dec 2024: 64¢Dec 2025: 59¢12 mo to Jun 2026: 55¢42¢55¢
Does it earn good returns?Poor

Shareholders' money lost 8.6% a year, up from −22% in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: −22%Dec 2022: −16%Dec 2023: −20%Dec 2024: −0.8%Dec 2025: −10.0%12 mo to Jun 2026: −8.6%−22%−8.6%
How long can it keep going?Long runway

It used $15.7M of cash over the last twelve months, so the $77.9M it holds lasts about 5.0 years at that pace.

Dec 2021: −$54.5MDec 2022: −$44.2MDec 2023: −$22.1MDec 2024: −$26.2MDec 2025: −$30.5M12 mo to Jun 2026: −$15.7M−$54.5M−$15.7M
Is the balance sheet safe?Strained

It owes $344M more than the cash it holds, and its operations bring in no cash to repay it.

Dec 2021: −$118MDec 2022: −$279MDec 2023: −$303MDec 2024: −$260MDec 2025: −$314M12 mo to Jun 2026: −$344M−$118M−$344M
Are shares being diluted?Diluting

The share count rose 65% in 4.5 years, and pay in shares costs 5.9% of sales.

Dec 2021: 25.1MDec 2022: 27.2MDec 2023: 27.6MDec 2024: 34.2MDec 2025: 40.5M12 mo to Jun 2026: 41.3M25.1M41.3M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-23. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Jun 2026
Size and growth
Sales$283M$262M$277M$350M$456M$497M
Sales growth+32%−7.3%+5.5%+26%+30%+19%
Profit
Gross margin20%31%32%42%43%42%
Operating margin−23%−26%−26%−23%−15%−13%
Net margin−27%−26%−25%−1.4%−19%−15%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development12%19%21%19%18%17%
Sales and marketing8.5%13%14%12%11%9.8%
General and admin23%27%26%31%27%24%
Pay in shares5.0%5.1%5.2%7.0%6.7%5.9%
Capital spending0.5%0.4%1.8%0.3%0.7%0.6%
Cash
Cash from operations−$53.2M−$43.1M−$17.1M−$25.2M−$27.2M−$12.8M
Free cash flow−$54.5M−$44.2M−$22.1M−$26.2M−$30.5M−$15.7M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$188M$110M$74.4M$109M$80.1M$77.9M
Debt$307M$389M$378M$368M$394M$422M
Net cash−$118M−$279M−$303M−$260M−$314M−$344M
Returns and shares
Shares (diluted)25.1M27.2M27.6M34.2M40.5M41.3M

What growth costs

Growth is getting cheaper. Adjusted profit rose from about 5 cents to 11 cents of each sales dollar in a year after PAR cut its running costs, while sales grew 19%. The reported loss barely narrowed, because stock pay and the cost of past acquisitions stay on the books.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C39facthigh confidence
Adjusted EBITDA rose from $5.5M on $112.4M of revenue in Q2 2025 to $14.3M on $133.4M, 4.9% to 10.7% of sales; management put adjusted research at 15% of sales, selling at 8% and administration at 14% after restructuring.
against this

Stock pay of about $7M a quarter (C24) sits outside every adjusted figure.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-23
C03facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue rose 18.7% to $133.4M. Subscriptions grew 16.0% to $83.4M, of which $4.2M came from Bridg and $7.3M from more revenue per site; hardware grew 30.6% to $35.1M on one large customer's refresh; services grew 9.5% to $14.9M. The net loss was $16.9M and adjusted EBITDA $14.3M, $1.3M of it from that one hardware project.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-23
C24facthigh confidence
Operations used $9.4M of cash in the first half of 2026 against $23.8M a year earlier, before $5.4M of capitalised software; stock pay was $14.0M in the half.
historical · H1 2026written 2026-10-23

The last report (6 Aug)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

19%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
7.6%
Growth from the quarter before
against 3.2% the quarter before that
-10¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

PAR's Q2 2026 sales rose 18.7% to $133.4M, and its adjusted profit, before interest, tax and stock pay, almost tripled to $14.3M. Part of that came from one big customer replacing its terminals, a job that will not repeat.

Underneath, recurring revenue grew 12.3% without Bridg, the slowest part of the story. The loss was still $16.9M, including a $5.4M write-off of an old brand name. Management raised its 2026 forecast and said growth would pick up through the rest of the year.

What it did to the thesisIt proved the cost cuts are working and profit is rising, but left the main question open: growth without the acquisition was the slowest yet, and the speed-up management promised has still to show.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures. The company has restated its own history, so a quarter either side of the restatement may describe a different business; n/c marks one that does not compare.

Earnings per share $0.18 against $0.12 expected; $-0.41 as filed, the gap being what the company adds back.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C03facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue rose 18.7% to $133.4M. Subscriptions grew 16.0% to $83.4M, of which $4.2M came from Bridg and $7.3M from more revenue per site; hardware grew 30.6% to $35.1M on one large customer's refresh; services grew 9.5% to $14.9M. The net loss was $16.9M and adjusted EBITDA $14.3M, $1.3M of it from that one hardware project.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-23
C04facthigh confidence
Recurring revenue (ARR) was $338.0M at the end of June 2026, up 17.3% in a year; without Bridg it was $323.6M, up 12.3%, and Bridg added $14.4M.
against this

Organic ARR fell from $317.2M in December to $315.7M in March when Punchh dropped customers on deeply discounted contracts (C13), so a year's growth includes that dip.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-23
C06management claimmedium confidence
Management raised its 2026 outlook to revenue of $516M to $523M and adjusted EBITDA of $50M to $53M, from $500M to $515M and $44M to $47M, and guides Q3 revenue of $128M to $132M with adjusted EBITDA of $13.5M to $14.5M.
against this

Q2's EBITDA carried $1.3M from one hardware project that will not repeat (C03).

forwardwritten 2026-10-23
C25facthigh confidence
Q2's $12.9M operating loss included a $5.4M write-off of the Stuzo trademark. Subscription gross margin was 55.2%, or 65.1% before amortisation, stock pay and severance, down from 66.4%; hardware margin fell to 20% from 27%.
against this

Management says a fixed-profit contract bought in 2024 depresses subscription margin, and excluding it the adjusted margin was 71% in Q1 (C40).

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-23
C39facthigh confidence
Adjusted EBITDA rose from $5.5M on $112.4M of revenue in Q2 2025 to $14.3M on $133.4M, 4.9% to 10.7% of sales; management put adjusted research at 15% of sales, selling at 8% and administration at 14% after restructuring.
against this

Stock pay of about $7M a quarter (C24) sits outside every adjusted figure.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-23
What management did with the money

In March PAR borrowed $265M through new convertible notes to buy back most of the notes due in 2027 and $33.1M of its own shares at about $15.85. It paid for Bridg with new shares, and stock pay runs at about $28M a year.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 1 purchases and 2 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C22facthigh confidence
In March 2026 PAR used the new 2031 notes to buy back $212.0M of its 2027 notes for $206.2M and 2.1M shares at $15.85, $33.1M; $66.9M of buyback authority remained. In January it swapped $17.1M of 2026 notes for 485,186 shares, booking a $3.5M inducement loss.
historical · Q1 2026written 2026-10-23
C23facthigh confidence
PAR bought the Bridg data and loyalty-marketing business from Cardlytics on 24 March 2026 for 1,810,222 new shares, about $25.1M at the closing price of $13.72.
historical · 2026-03-24written 2026-10-23
C24facthigh confidence
Operations used $9.4M of cash in the first half of 2026 against $23.8M a year earlier, before $5.4M of capitalised software; stock pay was $14.0M in the half.
historical · H1 2026written 2026-10-23
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Fair. The price pays for the slower growth analysts expect next year and leaves management's promised speed-up and the AI tools unpaid.

Share price
$18.17
close,
Company value for each $1 of sales
2.4
rivals' middle 1.6 · its 6-year normal 5.2

The shares fell 50% in a year while sales per share rose 17%, so the whole fall was buyers paying less for each dollar of sales. They dropped 27% the day after the 2025 results and have recovered only part of it since the forecast was raised.

A quarter of the freely traded shares are sold short. Third-quarter results on 5 November are the first test of management's promise that growth speeds up.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C27facthigh confidence
The shares closed at $18.17 on 22 October 2026, down 50.3% in a year while sales per share rose 16.6%, so the multiple fell 57.4%; the year's range was $11.59 to $40.54, and they fell 27% on 27 February 2026, the day after the Q4 print.
current state · 2026-10-22written 2026-10-23
C28facthigh confidence
8.33M shares were sold short at 30 September 2026, 25.5% of the float and 7.6 days of trading, down from 10.2M in mid-July.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-23
C07management claimmedium confidence
The finance chief said organic ARR growth will rise from 12% to a higher rate in the teens through Q3 and Q4, on a backlog of large deals; the chief executive said about 20,000 sites run PAR Intelligence, 20,000 more go live in Q3, 50,000 are committed for 2026, and 2027 is when AI should add meaningfully to revenue.
against this

Organic sites fell 2.6% in a year (C05), and nothing about PAR Intelligence is priced or reported yet.

forwardwritten 2026-10-23
C06management claimmedium confidence
Management raised its 2026 outlook to revenue of $516M to $523M and adjusted EBITDA of $50M to $53M, from $500M to $515M and $44M to $47M, and guides Q3 revenue of $128M to $132M with adjusted EBITDA of $13.5M to $14.5M.
against this

Q2's EBITDA carried $1.3M from one hardware project that will not repeat (C03).

forwardwritten 2026-10-23
C42facthigh confidence
PAR came in above analysts' adjusted per-share estimate at five of its last eight prints; Q3 2026 is due on 5 November, estimated at $0.22 a share.
historical · last eight printswritten 2026-10-23
The betSafe, little upside
If it works
1.1×
from today's value, at the stated multiple
If it fails
keep 79%
of today's market value: the rest of the company, less its debt
How we read the multiple

A buyer pays for PAR roughly as it is, with margins still rising. The speed-up and any AI revenue are not in the price, and neither is proven yet.

  1. Counting its $433M of notes and its cash, the business is valued at about $1.1B.
  2. That is about 2.1 times the $519.5M of sales management forecasts for 2026.
  3. It is also about 21 times the adjusted profit management forecasts for 2026.
  4. Analysts expect sales to grow about 10% in 2027, which is roughly what that price needs.

Against its own history. Buyers have usually paid far more for each dollar of PAR's sales; the gap is the market deciding growth has slowed, not the business shrinking.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C26inferencemedium confidence
At $18.17 the business is valued at about $1.1B: 2.2 times trailing revenue, 2.1 times the 2026 guidance midpoint and about 21 times guided adjusted EBITDA, against a six-year median of about 5.2 times sales on the vendor's figures.
against this
  • Adjusted EBITDA adds back $28M a year of stock pay (C24), so on a GAAP basis the business still loses money.
  • The vendor's EV/sales reads 2.35, a little higher, on its own debt figure.
current state · 2026-10-22written 2026-10-23
C29factmedium confidence
Ten analysts rate PAR a buy and two a hold; in the dated series the positive share fell from 90% of ten in February to 77.8% of nine in October. Consensus estimates are $520.2M for 2026 and $571.8M for 2027, growth of about 10%.
current state · 2026-10-22written 2026-10-23
C06management claimmedium confidence
Management raised its 2026 outlook to revenue of $516M to $523M and adjusted EBITDA of $50M to $53M, from $500M to $515M and $44M to $47M, and guides Q3 revenue of $128M to $132M with adjusted EBITDA of $13.5M to $14.5M.
against this

Q2's EBITDA carried $1.3M from one hardware project that will not repeat (C03).

forwardwritten 2026-10-23
C21facthigh confidence
41,362,708 shares were outstanding on 4 August 2026, and the notes could convert into 15,806,528 more at their initial rates; the 2031 notes convert at 52.5762 shares per $1,000, about $19.02 a share, while the 2027 and 2030 notes convert far above the price.
current state · 2026-08-04written 2026-10-23
Priced against its rivals

The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on company value for each $1 of sales, cheapest first:

TickerCompanycompany value for each $1 of sales
VYXNCR Voyix0.8×
TOSTToast2.4×
PARPAR Technology2.4×

The middle of the other 2 is 1.6. PAR Technology Corporation is 2nd cheapest of 3.

Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.

Its rivals' sales include card payments that earn much less, so on what each keeps from a sale PAR is cheaper than Toast and dearer than NCR Voyix.

Also checked and set aside: Shift4 Payments (a substitute, not the same product).

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Olo, Qu, Paytronix, Thanx.

The bet: what it pays if it works

The bet is that PAR's AI tools and its Bridg data business become a paid add-on for the chains it already serves. Even if the sites live by the end of 2026 all pay, the whole company would be worth only a little more than today.

If the add-ons never earn, the core business at the price this thesis calls fair, less the notes, still holds most of today's market value.

PAR Intelligence and Bridg revenue in two to three yearsSites paying for AI tools neededAt the stated multiple
$30.00Mabout 26.0K at 100% kept1.0×
$45.00M (the big win)about 51.0K at 100% kept1.1×
$90.00Mabout 126.0K at 100% kept1.3×

To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $221.32M of PAR Intelligence and Bridg revenue (about 344.9K sites paying for AI tools); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $805.80M of PAR Intelligence and Bridg revenue (about 1.3M sites paying for AI tools), at the same multiple.

Each row is PAR Intelligence and Bridg alone, plus the rest of the company (Point of sale, loyalty, ordering and hardware) counted at about $1.01B.

The steps it has to take

  • Done Bridg bought and two new customers signed
  • Done PAR Intelligence live at 20,000 sites
  • In progress PAR Intelligence live at 50,000 sites due 2026-12
  • Not started A price or revenue figure for PAR Intelligence due 2027-06
  • Not started AI and Bridg revenue reported due 2027-12
The detail behind the label
Rating
Expensive
the big win's payoff against the 2× and 5× lines
Cheap bet
not on price
the big win pays five times only below the company's debt
The option
1.7×
what PAR Intelligence and Bridg is worth if it works, against what the price pays for it
The evidence under this - 7 claims
C07management claimmedium confidence
The finance chief said organic ARR growth will rise from 12% to a higher rate in the teens through Q3 and Q4, on a backlog of large deals; the chief executive said about 20,000 sites run PAR Intelligence, 20,000 more go live in Q3, 50,000 are committed for 2026, and 2027 is when AI should add meaningfully to revenue.
against this

Organic sites fell 2.6% in a year (C05), and nothing about PAR Intelligence is priced or reported yet.

forwardwritten 2026-10-23
C04facthigh confidence
Recurring revenue (ARR) was $338.0M at the end of June 2026, up 17.3% in a year; without Bridg it was $323.6M, up 12.3%, and Bridg added $14.4M.
against this

Organic ARR fell from $317.2M in December to $315.7M in March when Punchh dropped customers on deeply discounted contracts (C13), so a year's growth includes that dip.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-23
C35estimatelow confidence
A paid AI add-on worth about $600 a site a year is this thesis's stated judgement: a little above what Bridg earns per site and under a third of PAR's average, since nothing about PAR Intelligence is priced yet.
against this

Management says monetisation may come through premium features and higher attach rather than a separate price, which would leave no add-on revenue to count.

forwardwritten 2026-10-23
C26inferencemedium confidence
At $18.17 the business is valued at about $1.1B: 2.2 times trailing revenue, 2.1 times the 2026 guidance midpoint and about 21 times guided adjusted EBITDA, against a six-year median of about 5.2 times sales on the vendor's figures.
against this
  • Adjusted EBITDA adds back $28M a year of stock pay (C24), so on a GAAP basis the business still loses money.
  • The vendor's EV/sales reads 2.35, a little higher, on its own debt figure.
current state · 2026-10-22written 2026-10-23
C20facthigh confidence
At 30 June 2026 PAR held $77.4M of cash against $433M of convertible notes: $53M at 1.50% due 2027, $115M at 1.00% due 2030 and $265M at 4.00% due 2031. Interest cost $3.8M in Q2.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-23
C23facthigh confidence
PAR bought the Bridg data and loyalty-marketing business from Cardlytics on 24 March 2026 for 1,810,222 new shares, about $25.1M at the closing price of $13.72.
historical · 2026-03-24written 2026-10-23
C36management claimmedium confidence
Management said Bridg signed two customers in its first months under PAR, one an existing PAR restaurant customer, adding over $1.3M of committed ARR on agreements running through 2029.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-23

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

A fallen software stock with big chain rollouts signed, rated a buy by most analysts while a quarter of the shares are sold short.

We believe

Fair at today's price: growth is real but slower than promised, and nothing yet shows the speed-up management expects.

Ten of twelve analysts rate it a buy, yet they expect growth to slow to about 10% in 2027, and short sellers expect worse. The filings show growth without acquisitions at 12% while PAR's own sites shrink, which supports neither the bulls' speed-up nor a collapse.

We would be wrong if growth without acquisitions passes 16% with sites growing again, or if a big chain leaves.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
78%
of 9, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
73%
of 11, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 5 claims
C29factmedium confidence
Ten analysts rate PAR a buy and two a hold; in the dated series the positive share fell from 90% of ten in February to 77.8% of nine in October. Consensus estimates are $520.2M for 2026 and $571.8M for 2027, growth of about 10%.
current state · 2026-10-22written 2026-10-23
C28facthigh confidence
8.33M shares were sold short at 30 September 2026, 25.5% of the float and 7.6 days of trading, down from 10.2M in mid-July.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-23
C04facthigh confidence
Recurring revenue (ARR) was $338.0M at the end of June 2026, up 17.3% in a year; without Bridg it was $323.6M, up 12.3%, and Bridg added $14.4M.
against this

Organic ARR fell from $317.2M in December to $315.7M in March when Punchh dropped customers on deeply discounted contracts (C13), so a year's growth includes that dip.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-23
C05facthigh confidence
Active sites were 174,300 at the end of June 2026: 145,900 organic, down 2.6% from 149,800 a year earlier, and 28,400 from Bridg.
against this

Management says the sites lost were low-priced Punchh contracts it chose to end (C13), and ARR per site rose.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-23
C07management claimmedium confidence
The finance chief said organic ARR growth will rise from 12% to a higher rate in the teens through Q3 and Q4, on a backlog of large deals; the chief executive said about 20,000 sites run PAR Intelligence, 20,000 more go live in Q3, 50,000 are committed for 2026, and 2027 is when AI should add meaningfully to revenue.
against this

Organic sites fell 2.6% in a year (C05), and nothing about PAR Intelligence is priced or reported yet.

forwardwritten 2026-10-23
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • One customer is a quarter. McDonald's paid 27% of Q2 2026 sales, and much of this year's hardware growth is its refresh, which will end.
  • Toast moves up. Toast, with about 164,000 restaurants, is pushing into bigger chains and already has its own AI assistant.
  • Notes share the upside. Above about $19 a share the 2031 notes are worth turning into about a third more shares.
  • Its own sites shrink. Sites fell 2.6% without Bridg, so growth depends on selling more to the same chains.
  • AI may never be priced. PAR Intelligence runs at about 20,000 sites with no price, and management may fold it into existing fees.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C08facthigh confidence
McDonald's was 27% of PAR's revenue in Q2 2026 against 18% a year earlier, and 26% of the first half; it was 21% of 2025, 15% of 2024 and 12% of 2023. Yum was 8% and Dairy Queen 7% of 2025 revenue.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-23
C15facthigh confidence
Toast had about 164,000 locations at the end of 2025, up 22%, processing about $195B of card payments a year, and estimates its US locations are about 20% of the US restaurant market. It names cloud and legacy point-of-sale platforms as its rivals and says it is pursuing enterprise and mid-market chains, though most customers are small.
current state · 2025-12-31written 2026-10-23
C21facthigh confidence
41,362,708 shares were outstanding on 4 August 2026, and the notes could convert into 15,806,528 more at their initial rates; the 2031 notes convert at 52.5762 shares per $1,000, about $19.02 a share, while the 2027 and 2030 notes convert far above the price.
current state · 2026-08-04written 2026-10-23
C38inferencemedium confidence
Above about $19 a share the 2031 notes are worth converting into about 13.9M shares, a third more than are outstanding, so a rising price is shared with the noteholders unless the company settles in cash.
against this

The company may settle conversions in cash or a mix, and at $18.17 the notes are still slightly below their conversion price.

forwardwritten 2026-10-23
C05facthigh confidence
Active sites were 174,300 at the end of June 2026: 145,900 organic, down 2.6% from 149,800 a year earlier, and 28,400 from Bridg.
against this

Management says the sites lost were low-priced Punchh contracts it chose to end (C13), and ARR per site rose.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-23
C35estimatelow confidence
A paid AI add-on worth about $600 a site a year is this thesis's stated judgement: a little above what Bridg earns per site and under a third of PAR's average, since nothing about PAR Intelligence is priced yet.
against this

Management says monetisation may come through premium features and higher attach rather than a separate price, which would leave no add-on revenue to count.

forwardwritten 2026-10-23
What we still do not know
  • What PAR will charge for PAR Intelligence, and whether it will be a separate price at all.
  • How much of 2026's hardware growth is McDonald's refresh, and when it ends.
  • How many of the lost sites went to rivals rather than being dropped on purpose.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C35estimatelow confidence
A paid AI add-on worth about $600 a site a year is this thesis's stated judgement: a little above what Bridg earns per site and under a third of PAR's average, since nothing about PAR Intelligence is priced yet.
against this

Management says monetisation may come through premium features and higher attach rather than a separate price, which would leave no add-on revenue to count.

forwardwritten 2026-10-23
C08facthigh confidence
McDonald's was 27% of PAR's revenue in Q2 2026 against 18% a year earlier, and 26% of the first half; it was 21% of 2025, 15% of 2024 and 12% of 2023. Yum was 8% and Dairy Queen 7% of 2025 revenue.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-23
C05facthigh confidence
Active sites were 174,300 at the end of June 2026: 145,900 organic, down 2.6% from 149,800 a year earlier, and 28,400 from Bridg.
against this

Management says the sites lost were low-priced Punchh contracts it chose to end (C13), and ARR per site rose.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-23

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveThe acceleration shows up

    It needs all of:

    • ○Recurring revenue without acquisitions grows 16% or more in a year, reported at a quarterly print.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
    • ○The number of PAR's own sites, without Bridg, grows year on year again.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
  2. Neutral→AttractiveA price that pays for today's growth alone

    It needs:

    • ○The business is valued at 1.5 times its last year's sales, down from about 2.2, with sales held.about ≈$12.39 today, 32% below the last close
  3. Neutral→UnattractiveThe engine breaks

    It needs any of:

    • ○Recurring revenue without acquisitions grows less than 10% in a year.checked at the next results, due by 5 Nov
    • ○McDonald's, Burger King or Papa John's moves to another till supplier.watched as it happens
We would also be wrong if
  • Management cuts its 2026 sales or profit forecast.
  • PAR's own sites fall again in 2027 while revenue per site stops rising.

What is coming

  • 5 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether organic ARR growth rises above 12% and the raised guidance holds.
Every dated event ahead
  • 5 November 2026 Q3 2026 results: Whether organic ARR growth rises above 12% and the raised guidance holds.
  • 31 December 2026 PAR Intelligence at 50,000 live sites: Whether the AI rollout lands on time ahead of any price.
  • 26 February 2027 Q4 2026 results and 2027 guidance: Whether the second-half acceleration happened and what 2027 growth and AI revenue management expects.
Since we wrote this
Written
23 Oct
Price the thesis read
$18.17
22 Oct
  • 23 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten two weeks before Q3 results, after the shares halved in a year and half-recovered on a raised guide.

Sources 16

Where this came from

Sources - 16

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-26
    what it sells, the one segment, staff, the approved-provider relationships, customer concentration, competition and the 2023 to 2025 statements
    backsC01C02C08C09C41
  2. S02primarycompany release2026-02-26
    2025 revenue by type, adjusted EBITDA, year-end ARR and active sites, and the buyback authorisation
    backsC02C33
  3. S03primarycompany release2026-08-06
    Q2 and first-half results, adjusted EBITDA, ARR and sites on the new total basis, and the raised 2026 outlook
    backsC03C04C06C25C35C37C39
  4. S04primarycompany filing2026-08-06
    the statements, customer concentration, the convertible notes, the March refinancing and buyback, the Bridg purchase, the Stuzo impairment and the share count
    backsC03C08C20C21C22C23C24C25C26C38
  5. S05primarycompany release2026-08-06
    ARR and active sites by quarter, organic and from Bridg
    backsC04C05C14C35C37
  6. S06primarytranscript2026-08-06
    PAR Technology Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 6 August 2026
    the second-half ARR outlook, PAR Intelligence's rollout, Bridg's first contracts and the cost run rate
    This is going to allow us then to go from the 12% up to a higher percent in teens in regard to Q3 and Q4, but that will come steadily in Q3 and Q4.
    backsC07C12C36C39
  7. S07primarytranscript2026-05-07
    PAR Technology Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 7 May 2026
    the Burger King and Papa John's rollouts, the Punchh exits, multi-product deals and the fixed-profit contract
    The PAR POS Burger King implementation is running at a sustained pace of over 400 sites per month, and we have a strong plan into more than 3,000 additional sites that will go live this year.
    backsC10C12C13C40
  8. S08primarytranscript2026-02-26
    PAR Technology Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 26 February 2026
    the Papa John's win, its pricing and the 2025 bookings
    We were selected by Papa Johns for a decade-long partnership and their 3,200 sites and we'll be rolling out PAR POS and PAR OPS to power their in-store tech stack.
    backsC11
  9. S09primarycompany filing2026-04-16
    the leaders, the ownership table and how pay is set
    backsC30C31C34
  10. S10primarycompany filing2026-02-18
    Toast's locations, its share of US restaurants, who it competes with and its push into enterprise chains
    backsC15C43
  11. S11primarycompany filing2026-02-26
    the Restaurants segment, its size and the buyers it serves
    backsC16
  12. S12primaryindustry data2026-01-26
    the number of US convenience stores and how many sit with large chains
    Overall, 95,672 stores are owned by a company that has 10 or fewer stores, 63% of the total store count. Companies operating 500-plus stores own 33,810 stores, or 22.2% of the overall total.
    backsC19
  13. S13primaryother2025-09-12
    Olo's take-private, which leaves PAR Ordering's main rival unlisted
    Thoma Bravo, a leading software investment firm, today announced that it has completed its acquisition of Olo Inc.
    backsC17
  14. S14primaryvendor data2026-10-22
    Research pack for PAR (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest), fetched 23 October 2026
    the 22 October close, returns and the move split, daily bars, analyst ratings and estimates, earnings surprises, short interest and insider trades
    backsC26C27C28C29C32C42
  15. S15primarycompany filing2026-08-14
    Voss Capital's and two directors' open-market purchases, the one discretionary sale and the plan flags
    backsC32
  16. S16primarycompany filing2026-06-22
    that hospitality is one of about twenty industries its applications serve
    backsC18
Rendered from content/PAR/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-23. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.