← All thesesHOODNeutralMedium convictionWednesday 28 October 2026עברית

Robinhood Markets

A free trading app where 28 million people buy shares, options, crypto and bets on events, paid mostly by the trading firms that fill their orders.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 →

Revenue grew 52% in 2025 and 38% over four quarters, but swung from 27% to 15% to 32% in three quarters with trading.

Business quality3/4 ↑

Its 28.4M accounts take each new product, lifting options share, but rivals give the same trades away and Robinhood pays for deposits.

Financial position4/4 →

$5.4B of cash against $2.2B of zero-coupon notes due 2029, and $573M of quarterly profit.

Execution record3/4 →

New products ship fast and expense outlooks were cut, but revenue missed consensus in two of the last three quarters.

Per share capture3/4 →

Diluted shares rose 0.3% and buybacks offset share pay, but basic shares rose 1.9% and founders hold the vote.

Potential3/4 →

About 0.5% of household equities and growing options and prediction markets leave room, but the tenfold ambition is management's word.

Risk profile2/4 →

A Ninth Circuit ruling on state power over sports contracts lands inside the horizon, and trading firms on informal terms pay half of revenue.

Valuation2/4 →

38 times 2027 consensus earnings needs 28% revenue growth for a business that missed twice in three quarters: the plan and more must work.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Revenue, deposits and concentration are filed and the OCC count is independent, but event-contract mix and deposit targets are management's word.

The Verdict

We rate Robinhood neutral. Its free app keeps selling new things to the same customers, event contracts replaced crypto as the growth engine, and revenue grew 38% over the past year, so the business is solid. The price assumes analysts' forecasts arrive, about 28% growth next year, so it is full. The view hinges on growth that rises and falls with how much people trade: it missed forecasts twice in three quarters, half its revenue comes from trading firms on informal terms, and states are suing over sports contracts.

The long caseYounger people are moving savings into their own accounts and trading more options and event contracts; Robinhood needs that trading to keep growing and courts to allow sports contracts.

The evidence under this - 7 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Robinhood runs a free app for trading stocks, options, crypto and event contracts; it earns from trading firms paying for customer orders, interest on customer cash, margin loans and securities lending, and Gold subscriptions.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C03facthigh confidence
Revenue over the four quarters to June 2026 was $4.93B, up 38% from $3.57B a year earlier; 2025 revenue was $4.47B, up 52% from $2.95B.
historical · four quarters to June 30, 2026written 2026-10-04
C05facthigh confidence
In the first half of 2026 options were 25% of revenue, event contracts 11%, crypto 10% and equities 9%; a year earlier crypto was 22% and event contracts about 1%.
historical · H1 2026 against H1 2025written 2026-10-04
C04facthigh confidence
Growth swings with trading: revenue rose 27% in Q4 2025 and only 15% in Q1 2026, both short of consensus by 5.3% and 6.4%, before Q2's 32%.
against this
  • Q2 2026 beat consensus and grew 32%, so the slowdown lasted one quarter.
  • Q1 2026 compared against a record crypto quarter a year earlier, when crypto was 22% of revenue (C05).
historical · Q4 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C14facthigh confidence
Citadel Securities paid 16% of revenue in the first half of 2026, and trading firms and exchanges 48%; the 10-Q says these payment arrangements are often not documented under binding contracts.
against this

The share paid by trading firms fell from 59% a year earlier as interest, Gold and event contracts grew.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C23facthigh confidence
States are fighting sports event contracts in court: Nevada won a ruling and Robinhood stopped new sports contracts there from December 2025 pending a Ninth Circuit appeal; Wisconsin sued Robinhood, Kalshi and Coinbase on April 23, 2026.
against this

The CFTC won an injunction stopping Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against federally listed contracts, and the Third Circuit ruled for Kalshi in April 2026.

current state · 2026-07-30written 2026-10-04
C29inferencemedium confidence
The price assumes consensus arrives: 38 times 2027 earnings needs revenue up 28% in 2027 and 18% in 2028 with margins held.
against this

Trailing earnings of $2.27 include a $0.14 one-off gain, so the trailing multiple overstates the cheapness of the core.

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
01

The company

Robinhood runs a phone app and a desktop platform where anyone can open a free account and trade shares, options, crypto, futures and event contracts, which are yes-or-no bets on things like sports results and elections.

Its customers are mostly younger people investing on their own. Before apps like this they paid commissions at a traditional broker. Now Webull, Schwab and Fidelity trade shares free too, so Robinhood competes on speed, product range and new things to trade: nearly 2M customers already use its prediction markets.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Robinhood runs a free app for trading stocks, options, crypto and event contracts; it earns from trading firms paying for customer orders, interest on customer cash, margin loans and securities lending, and Gold subscriptions.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C05facthigh confidence
In the first half of 2026 options were 25% of revenue, event contracts 11%, crypto 10% and equities 9%; a year earlier crypto was 22% and event contracts about 1%.
historical · H1 2026 against H1 2025written 2026-10-04
C26facthigh confidence
Webull's annual report names Robinhood first among its competitors, beside Fidelity, Charles Schwab and E-Trade; Coinbase now sells shares and prediction markets beside crypto.
current state · 2026-04-30written 2026-10-04
C22management claimmedium confidence
Management says nearly 2M customers trade prediction markets and that Rothera, its exchange with Susquehanna, became a top-three US contract market within a month of launch. On the Q3 call the chief financial officer said Rothera reached $100M of annualized revenue in its first full quarter, that about 30% of contracts were not sports, up from 15% the quarter before, and that the take rate was held when pricing was redone.
against this

Robinhood also routes event contracts to Kalshi and ForecastEx, so part of the volume pays exchange fees to rivals.

  1. 2026-10-28editedQ3 call: Rothera reached $100M of annual revenue in its first full quarter and non-sports contracts doubled their share
current state · 2026-10-28written 2026-10-04

How it makes money

When a customer buys, Robinhood sends the order to a trading firm such as Citadel Securities, which fills it and pays Robinhood a small fee for the business. That trading revenue was $776M of Q2 2026's $1,308M. Most of the rest is interest earned on customers' cash and on loans to customers who buy with borrowed money, plus subscriptions to Robinhood Gold. So revenue rises when people trade and borrow more, and falls when they stop.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Robinhood runs a free app for trading stocks, options, crypto and event contracts; it earns from trading firms paying for customer orders, interest on customer cash, margin loans and securities lending, and Gold subscriptions.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C02facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 revenue was $1,308M, up 32%: trading revenue $776M (up 44%), net interest $389M (up 9%) and other revenue $143M (up 54%).
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C14facthigh confidence
Citadel Securities paid 16% of revenue in the first half of 2026, and trading firms and exchanges 48%; the 10-Q says these payment arrangements are often not documented under binding contracts.
against this

The share paid by trading firms fell from 59% a year earlier as interest, Gold and event contracts grew.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C05facthigh confidence
In the first half of 2026 options were 25% of revenue, event contracts 11%, crypto 10% and equities 9%; a year earlier crypto was 22% and event contracts about 1%.
historical · H1 2026 against H1 2025written 2026-10-04
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (FY2025)How it earns it
Options trading25%Market makers pay a rebate per contract for customers' option orders; customers pay no commission.
Crypto trading20%A spread or fee on each crypto trade in the app and on Bitstamp, plus rebates from crypto market makers.
Equities trading7%Market makers pay for routing customers' share orders.
Other trading, mostly prediction markets7%A fee on each event contract traded, and charges for instant withdrawals.
Margin interest13%Interest on loans to customers who buy with borrowed money.
Other net interest21%Interest on customer and company cash, cash swept to partner banks, lending customers' shares, and the credit card.
Gold subscriptions4%A flat monthly fee for higher interest on cash, larger instant deposits and research.
Other fees3%Proxy services paid by issuers, crypto listing fees, share-offering concessions and account transfer fees.

Who runs it

Vladimir Tenev started Robinhood with Baiju Bhatt in 2013 and has run it alone since 2020, taking it from heavy losses to a record profit in 2025. The two founders own about an eighth of the company but control most of the votes, so other shareholders cannot outvote them.

Tenev takes almost no salary and no bonus; his last big share award paid out on share-price goals. Other bosses' bonuses ride on sales, profit, customer deposits and Gold sign-ups. A new finance chief started in February.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C42facthigh confidence
Vladimir Tenev co-founded Robinhood in 2013 with Baiju Bhatt, has been sole chief executive since November 2020 and chair since March 2021; Bhatt left management in March 2024 and remains a director.
current state · 2026-04-22written 2026-10-04
C43facthigh confidence
Shiv Verma, treasurer and head of finance and strategy since 2018, became chief financial officer in February 2026 when Jason Warnick retired; the chief technology officer, Jeffrey Pinner, left in May 2026.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C44facthigh confidence
On April 8, 2026 directors and officers held about 13% of the shares and 58.6% of the votes, nearly all through the founders' ten-vote Class B shares: Bhatt 32.0% of the votes, Tenev 26.1%.
current state · 2026-04-08written 2026-10-04
C45facthigh confidence
Tenev has taken a $34,248 salary, no bonus and no new equity since the 2021 listing; his 2019 market-based award vested in full in 2025 on share-price goals, and the board is evaluating new pay for him.
current state · 2026-04-22written 2026-10-04
C46facthigh confidence
Other executives' 2025 bonus paid on revenue (25%), adjusted net income (25%), net deposits (20%), Gold subscriber growth (20%) and international accounts (10%), at 177% of target; their long-term awards vest on time alone.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-04
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Robinhood's advantage is reach. With 28.4M funded accounts it can sell each new product to people already on the app, without paying to find them again. Prediction markets reached nearly 2M customers that way within about a year.

The outside evidence is options. Robinhood's contracts rose 50% in a year while the industry's rose about 27%, lifting its share from about 15% to about 17%. The catch is that customers can leave freely: Robinhood owes them $799M for moving assets in, which is paying for loyalty, not having it.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C08facthigh confidence
At September 30, 2026 Robinhood had 28.7M funded customers (up 7%), $396B of platform assets (up 19%) and 5.2M Gold subscribers (up 34%).
  1. 2026-10-27editedRe-struck on the Q3 2026 release: 28.7M funded customers, $396B platform assets, 5.2M Gold.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-04
C22management claimmedium confidence
Management says nearly 2M customers trade prediction markets and that Rothera, its exchange with Susquehanna, became a top-three US contract market within a month of launch. On the Q3 call the chief financial officer said Rothera reached $100M of annualized revenue in its first full quarter, that about 30% of contracts were not sports, up from 15% the quarter before, and that the take rate was held when pricing was redone.
against this

Robinhood also routes event contracts to Kalshi and ForecastEx, so part of the volume pays exchange fees to rivals.

  1. 2026-10-28editedQ3 call: Rothera reached $100M of annual revenue in its first full quarter and non-sports contracts doubled their share
current state · 2026-10-28written 2026-10-04
C13estimatemedium confidence
Robinhood traded 774M option contracts in Q2 2026, about 17% of the roughly 4.5B the OCC cleared, up from about 15% a year earlier.
against this

The two counts are defined differently, so the level is approximate; only the direction is robust.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C37estimatemedium confidence
Robinhood's own trading revenue on options rose 50% in a year when cleared options industry-wide rose about 27%.
against this

Robinhood's options revenue includes rate changes, so contracts and revenue do not move one for one.

historical · Q2 2026 against Q2 2025written 2026-10-04
C15facthigh confidence
Robinhood owes customers $799M of deferred match incentives for moving in assets, up from $613M at the end of 2025.
against this

Management presents the match as a customer acquisition cost repaid by the assets' revenue, and it is forfeited if deposits leave early.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04

The threat

Kalshi, a private exchange, traded $31.5B of event contracts in June, more than Robinhood, and sells directly through its own app; Robinhood even sends it some orders. Coinbase now sells shares and prediction markets beside crypto, where Robinhood's revenue fell 38%. Interactive Brokers and Webull sell the same trading account to active traders.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C24factmedium confidence
Kalshi traded $31.5B in June 2026, up 87% on May, and Kalshi and Polymarket together $44.8B, on The Block's data during the World Cup.
against this

The figures are dollar volume reported by a news site from a data dashboard, not filed, and the World Cup inflated June.

historical · June 2026written 2026-10-04
C36inferencemedium confidence
Prediction-market dollar volumes at Kalshi exceed Robinhood's own exchange, and Robinhood routes part of its event-contract orders to Kalshi.
against this

Robinhood's contracts settle at up to $1 each, so the units are close but not identical.

current state · 2026-07-29written 2026-10-04
C26facthigh confidence
Webull's annual report names Robinhood first among its competitors, beside Fidelity, Charles Schwab and E-Trade; Coinbase now sells shares and prediction markets beside crypto.
current state · 2026-04-30written 2026-10-04
C07facthigh confidence
Crypto revenue fell 38% to $100M in Q2 2026, and trading in the app fell 35% to $18B.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04

The rivals: COIN, IBKR, BULL, SCHW, MS, FUTU, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalHow far alongPriced against it
PrivateKalshiPriced against it: PrivateOn salePrivate
COINCoinbasePriced against it: One segment onlyOn saleOne segment only
IBKRInteractive BrokersPriced against it: YesOn saleYes
BULLWebullPriced against it: YesOn saleYes
SCHWCharles Schwab and FidelityPriced against it: YesOn saleYes
MSMorgan StanleyPriced against it: Shown, not countedOn saleShown, not counted
FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedPriced against it: No usable figureOn saleNo usable figure
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

Americans hold $74.0T of shares, on the Federal Reserve's count, and Robinhood's $369B is about 0.5% of it, so the room to grow in assets is large. Options are different: Robinhood already handles about 17% of all contracts. Prediction markets are new and growing fast, $44.8B a month at the two largest venues in June, though a World Cup inflated that month.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C25estimatemedium confidence
Robinhood's $369B of customer assets are about 0.5% of the $74.0T of shares US households hold, on the Federal Reserve's count.
against this

Most household equities sit in pensions, funds and adviser accounts that a self-directed app does not compete for, so 0.5% understates Robinhood's share of what it can reach.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C13estimatemedium confidence
Robinhood traded 774M option contracts in Q2 2026, about 17% of the roughly 4.5B the OCC cleared, up from about 15% a year earlier.
against this

The two counts are defined differently, so the level is approximate; only the direction is robust.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C24factmedium confidence
Kalshi traded $31.5B in June 2026, up 87% on May, and Kalshi and Polymarket together $44.8B, on The Block's data during the World Cup.
against this

The figures are dollar volume reported by a news site from a data dashboard, not filed, and the World Cup inflated June.

historical · June 2026written 2026-10-04
04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Steady

Sales grew 21% over the twelve months to Sep 2026, slower than the 52% in the year to Dec 2025.

Dec 2021: $1.81BDec 2022: $1.36BDec 2023: $1.86BDec 2024: $2.95BDec 2025: $4.47B12 mo to Sep 2026: $5.08B$1.81B$5.08B
Is it profitable?Strong

It keeps 39% of sales as profit, up from −29% in the year to Dec 2023.

Dec 2021: −203%Dec 2022: −76%Dec 2023: −29%Dec 2024: 48%Dec 2025: 42%12 mo to Sep 2026: 39%−203%39%
How steady is it?Swingy

Yearly sales growth has ranged from −25% to +89% over the last 5 years, with sales falling in 1 of them.

Dec 2021: +89%Dec 2022: −25%Dec 2023: +37%Dec 2024: +58%Dec 2025: +52%+89%+52%
Does it earn good returns?Strong

Shareholders' money earned 21% a year, up from −102% in the year to Dec 2021.

Dec 2021: −102%Dec 2022: −14%Dec 2023: −7.9%Dec 2024: 19%Dec 2025: 22%12 mo to Sep 2026: 21%−102%21%
Is it making cash?Strong

The business brought in $3.05B of cash from operations, 60% of sales, before capital spending, which the filer does not tag.

Dec 2021: −$885MDec 2022: −$852MDec 2023: $1.18BDec 2024: −$157MDec 2025: $1.64B12 mo to Sep 2026: $3.05B−$885M$3.05B
Is the balance sheet safe?Net cash

It holds $5.83B of cash against $2.66B of debt, $3.17B more cash than it owes.

Dec 2025: $4.26B12 mo to Sep 2026: $3.17B$4.26B$3.17B
Are shares being diluted?Diluting

The share count rose 85% in 4.8 years, and pay in shares costs 6.9% of sales.

Dec 2021: 492MDec 2022: 879MDec 2023: 891MDec 2024: 906MDec 2025: 919M12 mo to Sep 2026: 911M492M911M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-28. Fiscal years end in December.

Dec 2021Dec 2022Dec 2023Dec 2024Dec 202512 mo to Sep 2026
Size and growth
Sales$1.81B$1.36B$1.86B$2.95B$4.47B$5.08B
Sales growth+89%−25%+37%+58%+52%+21%
Profit
Net margin−203%−76%−29%48%42%39%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development24%28%19%11%7.9%-
Sales and marketing18%7.6%6.5%9.2%8.9%8.0%
General and admin76%68%63%15%14%14%
Pay in shares87%48%47%10%6.8%6.9%
Capital spending3.5%2.1%----
Cash
Cash from operations−$885M−$852M$1.18B−$157M$1.64B$3.05B
Free cash flow−$948M−$880M----
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$6.25B$6.34B$4.83B$4.33B$4.26B$5.83B
Debt----$0$2.66B
Net cash----$4.26B$3.17B
Returns and shares
Shares (diluted)492M879M891M906M919M911M

What growth costs

Robinhood's biggest costs are its engineers and the shares it pays staff with, and neither grows much when sales do. Marketing rises roughly in step with sales. So since 2023 most of each extra dollar of sales has become profit. In the first half of 2026 office and operating costs grew a little faster than sales, so that improvement has paused for now.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C40facthigh confidence
Technology and development fell from 43% of revenue in 2023 to 28% in 2024 and 20% in 2025, stock pay from 47% to 7%, and all operating costs from 129% to 53%, while marketing rose from 7% to 9%.
against this

2023 general and administrative costs of $1,169M carried large regulatory and legal accruals, so part of the fall is a one-off lapsing rather than scale.

historical · FY2023-FY2025written 2026-10-04
C41facthigh confidence
In the first half of 2026 operating costs rose 26% against revenue up 24%, with general and administrative up 41% and operations up 58%.
against this

Management cut its 2026 cost outlook in July (C17), which caps growth in costs for the second half.

historical · H1 2026written 2026-10-04

The last report (29 Jul)

Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.

32%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
22.6%
Growth from the quarter before
against -16.8% the quarter before that

In the September quarter revenue rose 12% to $1.42B. Event contracts brought in $173M, up over 6x on a year ago's, while crypto revenue fell 55% to $120M. Profit fell 14% to $476M.

Customers added a net $15.7B, a 17% yearly rate, and October had already topped $13B, including $6B from the Dell family's gift to Trump Accounts. On the call management said October trading in stocks, options and crypto ran about 5% below the record quarter, with event contracts about 10% above it.

What it did to the thesisIt cleared both lines we set and showed new products replacing crypto, but growth slowed a lot. The view stays Neutral until growth shows it can hold.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $0.62 against $0.44 expected; $0.62 as filed, with no adjustments.

The evidence under this - 6 claims
C49facthigh confidence
Robinhood's Q3 2026 revenue was $1.424B, up 12%: event contracts $173M (up over 6x), options $399M (up 31%), equities $121M (up 41%), crypto $120M (down 55%), net interest $415M (down 9%). Net income was $476M (down 14%), diluted EPS $0.51, and net deposits $15.7B, a 17% annualized rate; October deposits topped $13B by October 27, including $6B from the Dell family's Trump Accounts gift.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-27
C08facthigh confidence
At September 30, 2026 Robinhood had 28.7M funded customers (up 7%), $396B of platform assets (up 19%) and 5.2M Gold subscribers (up 34%).
  1. 2026-10-27editedRe-struck on the Q3 2026 release: 28.7M funded customers, $396B platform assets, 5.2M Gold.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-04
C12facthigh confidence
The margin book, loans to customers, was a record $22.1B at September 30, 2026, up 59% in a year; it was $21.6B at June 30.
against this

Margin loans rise with prices and fall fast in a crash, so the book adds credit and liquidity risk in a downturn.

  1. 2026-10-27editedRe-struck on the Q3 2026 release: $22.1B margin book at quarter end.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-04
C09facthigh confidence
Customers added a net $21.7B in Q2 2026, a 28% annual rate, and $75.7B over twelve months, 27% of assets a year earlier.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C17management claimmedium confidence
Management lowered the top end of its 2026 outlook for adjusted operating expenses and share pay to $2.675B-$2.75B on the Q3 2026 release, from $2.675B-$2.775B.
against this

Reported Q2 operating expenses rose 33% on marketing, restructuring and new businesses such as Trump Accounts and Rothera.

  1. 2026-10-27editedRe-struck on the Q3 2026 release: top of the range cut by $25M.
forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C50management claimmedium confidence
On the Q3 call management said stock, options and crypto trading in the first three weeks of October ran about 5% below the record third quarter and event-contract trading about 10% above it, that crypto revenue fell because customers moved into its Earn stablecoin product ($500M of assets), which earns less, and that full-year costs including share pay are to land between $2.675B and $2.75B.
against this

Three weeks of a quarter is a partial read, and the CFO said the full quarter may differ; the Q4 test needs about $1.50B of revenue (C28) against $1.424B in Q3 (C49).

current state · 2026-10-28written 2026-10-28
What management did with the money

Robinhood has spent $1.3B buying back its own shares since 2024, at about $47 each, keeping the share count almost flat. In June it borrowed $2.2B at no interest through notes that turn into shares only far above today's price.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 16 purchases and 94 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C19facthigh confidence
Diluted shares were 912M in Q2 2026 against 909M a year earlier; buybacks reached $1.3B since 2024 at about $47 a share, $414M of it in Q2.
against this

Basic shares rose to 899M from 882M, so buybacks did not fully offset share pay and warrant settlements.

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C18facthigh confidence
Robinhood held $5.4B of cash at June 30, 2026 and issued $2.2B of zero-coupon convertible notes due 2029 in June, convertible into about 12.6M shares, with capped calls from $174.42 to $237.85.
current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Full. The price pays for analysts' forecasts arriving, sales growing about 28% next year, in a business whose sales follow how much people trade.

Share price
$112.74
close,
Price for each $1 of yearly profit
48.8
rivals' middle 34.9 · its 6-year normal 9.6

The shares fell 59% from October 2025 to March 2026, then nearly doubled back as event contracts took off; by October 26 they were 17.7% below our October 2 price.

The September-quarter results met our two lines but growth slowed to 12%. The next results, expected in mid-February, test whether revenue reaches about $1.50B.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C31facthigh confidence
The shares fell 59% from $153.86 on October 6, 2025 to $63.52 on March 30, 2026, losing 9% and 13% after the two missed prints, then recovered to $124.72 by September 3.
historical · October 2025 to September 2026written 2026-10-04
C10facthigh confidence
Net deposits slowed to $5.6B in July and $4.0B in August, annual rates of 18% and 14%; August event contracts fell 23% from July to 4.7B, still 15 times a year earlier.
against this
  • Customer assets still rose to $384B and twelve-month net deposits were 24% of assets, above the 20% target (C11).
  • July's figure included Trump Account contributions for the first time, so July and August are not like for like with earlier months.
historical · July and August 2026written 2026-10-04
C28factmedium confidence
Analysts on average expect sales of $5.30B in 2026, $6.79B in 2027 and $8.02B in 2028, and $2.18, $2.95 and $3.62 a share of earnings.
against this

Consensus missed revenue in two of the last three quarters (C04).

current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C04facthigh confidence
Growth swings with trading: revenue rose 27% in Q4 2025 and only 15% in Q1 2026, both short of consensus by 5.3% and 6.4%, before Q2's 32%.
against this
  • Q2 2026 beat consensus and grew 32%, so the slowdown lasted one quarter.
  • Q1 2026 compared against a record crypto quarter a year earlier, when crypto was 22% of revenue (C05).
historical · Q4 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C49facthigh confidence
Robinhood's Q3 2026 revenue was $1.424B, up 12%: event contracts $173M (up over 6x), options $399M (up 31%), equities $121M (up 41%), crypto $120M (down 55%), net interest $415M (down 9%). Net income was $476M (down 14%), diluted EPS $0.51, and net deposits $15.7B, a 17% annualized rate; October deposits topped $13B by October 27, including $6B from the Dell family's Trump Accounts gift.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-27
How we read the multiple

Robinhood missed sales forecasts twice in the last three quarters, so arriving exactly on forecast is not a given. Past profit also looks better than it is: one-off gains supplied part of it.

  1. At $112.74 a share, a buyer pays 38 times the profit per share analysts expect for 2027.
  2. That forecast needs sales to grow from $5.30B this year to $6.79B in 2027, about 28%.
  3. It then needs about 18% more growth in 2028, with profit margins held where they are.

Against its own history. Its own past is little guide: it lost money in most earlier years, so what buyers paid per dollar of profit then means little.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C27facthigh confidence
At $112.74 on October 2, 2026 the market value is about $101.4B on 899.1M shares, 48.8 times trailing earnings and 24.1 times trailing sales on company value.
current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-04
C28factmedium confidence
Analysts on average expect sales of $5.30B in 2026, $6.79B in 2027 and $8.02B in 2028, and $2.18, $2.95 and $3.62 a share of earnings.
against this

Consensus missed revenue in two of the last three quarters (C04).

current state · 2026-10-04written 2026-10-04
C29inferencemedium confidence
The price assumes consensus arrives: 38 times 2027 earnings needs revenue up 28% in 2027 and 18% in 2028 with margins held.
against this

Trailing earnings of $2.27 include a $0.14 one-off gain, so the trailing multiple overstates the cheapness of the core.

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C04facthigh confidence
Growth swings with trading: revenue rose 27% in Q4 2025 and only 15% in Q1 2026, both short of consensus by 5.3% and 6.4%, before Q2's 32%.
against this
  • Q2 2026 beat consensus and grew 32%, so the slowdown lasted one quarter.
  • Q1 2026 compared against a record crypto quarter a year earlier, when crypto was 22% of revenue (C05).
historical · Q4 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C16facthigh confidence
Q2 2026 net income was $573M, of which $129M came from gains on deconsolidating Robinhood Ventures Fund I; diluted earnings were $0.62 a share including $0.14 of those gains.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
Priced against its rivals

The competitors its own annual report names, each confirmed against the rival's filing. Measured on price for each $1 of yearly profit, cheapest first:

TickerCompanyprice for each $1 of yearly profit
SCHWThe Charles Schwab17.5×
IBKRInteractive Brokers Group34.9×
HOODRobinhood Markets48.8×
BULLWebull85.6×
MSMorgan Stanley not in the median15.3×
FUTUFutu Holdings Limited held outnot priced

The middle of the other 3 is 34.9. Morgan Stanley competes with it in one product line inside a much bigger company, so its price says little about this business and it is not counted in the middle. Robinhood Markets, Inc. is 2nd dearest of 4.

Rivals' figures come from a data provider, so read the spread of the group rather than any single pair.

Buyers pay more per dollar of profit than at big brokers and less than at its closest app rival: the premium is Robinhood's own growth.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Fidelity Investments, Kalshi, Polymarket, Public.com.

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

Most analysts see a platform that keeps adding customers' money and new products; the doubters see a business priced at a trading peak.

We believe

Both are right: the product engine is real, and growth will still miss in quiet trading quarters, which the price leaves little room for.

Twenty of 26 analysts rate it a buy. Their case is strong: options share is rising and customers keep adding assets. What it underweights is how fast growth fell to 15% in early 2026.

We would be wrong if sales kept growing above 25% through a quarter of weak trading, with customers still adding near 20% of their assets a year.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
80%
of 30, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
70%
of 30, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C30factmedium confidence
Twenty of 26 analysts rate it a buy, the positive share up ten points since June; short interest was 36.2M shares, 4.6% of the float, on September 15.
current state · 2026-09-15written 2026-10-04
C31facthigh confidence
The shares fell 59% from $153.86 on October 6, 2025 to $63.52 on March 30, 2026, losing 9% and 13% after the two missed prints, then recovered to $124.72 by September 3.
historical · October 2025 to September 2026written 2026-10-04
C29inferencemedium confidence
The price assumes consensus arrives: 38 times 2027 earnings needs revenue up 28% in 2027 and 18% in 2028 with margins held.
against this

Trailing earnings of $2.27 include a $0.14 one-off gain, so the trailing multiple overstates the cheapness of the core.

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
C04facthigh confidence
Growth swings with trading: revenue rose 27% in Q4 2025 and only 15% in Q1 2026, both short of consensus by 5.3% and 6.4%, before Q2's 32%.
against this
  • Q2 2026 beat consensus and grew 32%, so the slowdown lasted one quarter.
  • Q1 2026 compared against a record crypto quarter a year earlier, when crypto was 22% of revenue (C05).
historical · Q4 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C13estimatemedium confidence
Robinhood traded 774M option contracts in Q2 2026, about 17% of the roughly 4.5B the OCC cleared, up from about 15% a year earlier.
against this

The two counts are defined differently, so the level is approximate; only the direction is robust.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C09facthigh confidence
Customers added a net $21.7B in Q2 2026, a 28% annual rate, and $75.7B over twelve months, 27% of assets a year earlier.
historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • Trading firms could pay less Firms like Citadel Securities pay half of revenue, mostly without binding contracts. A rule change or a decision by them would cut sales directly.
  • Courts could ban sports contracts Nevada won a ruling and an appeals decision is pending; Wisconsin and others have sued. Sports are a large part of event contracts.
  • Trading slows Sales grew only 15% in Q1 2026. A market slump cuts trading, borrowing and new money at the same time.
  • Loyalty is bought Robinhood owes customers $799M for moving assets in. Rivals offer the same free trades, so customers can leave.
  • Margin loans can sour Loans to customers more than doubled to $21.6B. In a crash they shrink fast and can turn into losses.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C14facthigh confidence
Citadel Securities paid 16% of revenue in the first half of 2026, and trading firms and exchanges 48%; the 10-Q says these payment arrangements are often not documented under binding contracts.
against this

The share paid by trading firms fell from 59% a year earlier as interest, Gold and event contracts grew.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C23facthigh confidence
States are fighting sports event contracts in court: Nevada won a ruling and Robinhood stopped new sports contracts there from December 2025 pending a Ninth Circuit appeal; Wisconsin sued Robinhood, Kalshi and Coinbase on April 23, 2026.
against this

The CFTC won an injunction stopping Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against federally listed contracts, and the Third Circuit ruled for Kalshi in April 2026.

current state · 2026-07-30written 2026-10-04
C04facthigh confidence
Growth swings with trading: revenue rose 27% in Q4 2025 and only 15% in Q1 2026, both short of consensus by 5.3% and 6.4%, before Q2's 32%.
against this
  • Q2 2026 beat consensus and grew 32%, so the slowdown lasted one quarter.
  • Q1 2026 compared against a record crypto quarter a year earlier, when crypto was 22% of revenue (C05).
historical · Q4 2025 to Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C15facthigh confidence
Robinhood owes customers $799M of deferred match incentives for moving in assets, up from $613M at the end of 2025.
against this

Management presents the match as a customer acquisition cost repaid by the assets' revenue, and it is forfeited if deposits leave early.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04
C12facthigh confidence
The margin book, loans to customers, was a record $22.1B at September 30, 2026, up 59% in a year; it was $21.6B at June 30.
against this

Margin loans rise with prices and fall fast in a crash, so the book adds credit and liquidity risk in a downturn.

  1. 2026-10-27editedRe-struck on the Q3 2026 release: $22.1B margin book at quarter end.
current state · 2026-09-30written 2026-10-04
C33management claimmedium confidence
Odd-lot quotes in public market data since April 27, 2026 may narrow spreads, and the 10-Q expects less order-flow payment from such orders.
against this

Q2 options and equities revenue rose 50% and 95% after the change, so no effect is visible yet.

forwardwritten 2026-10-04
What we still do not know
  • How much event-contract revenue comes from sports, the part states are suing over; Robinhood does not split it out.
  • Robinhood's true share of US share trading by individuals; regulators hold the data and publish none by broker.
  • When the Ninth Circuit appeals court will rule on Nevada's power over sports contracts.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C06facthigh confidence
Event-contract revenue was $156M in Q2 2026 against $10M a year earlier, on 13.6B contracts traded, about ten times as many.
against this

The quarter held the start of the FIFA World Cup on June 11, a one-off spike in sports trading (C24).

historical · Q2 2026written 2026-10-04
C23facthigh confidence
States are fighting sports event contracts in court: Nevada won a ruling and Robinhood stopped new sports contracts there from December 2025 pending a Ninth Circuit appeal; Wisconsin sued Robinhood, Kalshi and Coinbase on April 23, 2026.
against this

The CFTC won an injunction stopping Arizona from enforcing its gambling laws against federally listed contracts, and the Third Circuit ruled for Kalshi in April 2026.

current state · 2026-07-30written 2026-10-04
C13estimatemedium confidence
Robinhood traded 774M option contracts in Q2 2026, about 17% of the roughly 4.5B the OCC cleared, up from about 15% a year earlier.
against this

The two counts are defined differently, so the level is approximate; only the direction is robust.

current state · 2026-06-30written 2026-10-04

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveGrowth holds and the multiple comes in

    It needs all of:

    • ○The shares fall to 30 times the past year's profit.checked daily
    • ○Sales keep growing at least 25% a year.checked at the next results, due by 16 Feb
  2. Neutral→UnattractiveGrowth or deposits break

    It needs any of:

    • ○Sales growth falls below 15% a year.checked at the next results, due by 16 Feb
    • ○Customers add less than 10% of their assets a year, over a quarter.checked at the next results, due by 16 Feb
We would also be wrong if
  • An appeals court rules states may ban sports contracts on federal exchanges.
  • Citadel Securities or trading firms as a group cut what they pay per order.

What is coming

  • October 2026 September 2026 operating data: Whether net deposits hold near the 20% target once Trump Accounts money is counted, and whether event contracts held up after the World Cup.
Every dated event ahead
  • October 2026 September 2026 operating data: Whether net deposits hold near the 20% target once Trump Accounts money is counted, and whether event contracts held up after the World Cup.
  • 27 October 2026 Q3 2026 results: Revenue against the $1.40B consensus and quarterly net deposits, the thesis's next test, in the first quarter fully under the lowered cost outlook.
  • February 2027 Q4 2026 results and the 2027 cost outlook: Whether a full year confirms costs growing slower than revenue, and what management budgets for 2027.
  • April 2027 2027 proxy statement: Whether Tenev gets a new award and what it pays on, the share price alone or revenue, profit and deposits.
Since we wrote this
Written
4 Oct
Price the thesis read
$112.74
2 Oct
  • 28 OctEarningsCall read: Q4 starts lighter in trading, view heldManagement said October trading ran 5% below Q3 and event contracts 10% above; deposits stay strong but include a $6B gift.
  • 27 OctEarningsRevenue $1.42B, up 12%; deposits 17%; view heldCleared the $1.40B and 15% deposit lines. Growth of 12% is under route P2's 15% line for one quarter, but the test expected about 10% and the case rests on two.
  • 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
  • 4 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionFirst thesis: a strong product engine at a price that already assumes the good years continue.
  • 4 OctThesis reviewChecklist added: revenue streams, costs, leaders, catalysts; view heldThe founders control the vote, the chief executive's pay is share-price based, and costs grew slower than sales from 2023 to 2025 before pausing in 2026. None moves a score.

Also checked 1 time with nothing new to act on.

Sources 22

Where this came from

Sources - 22

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-02-18
    Item 1 products and revenue model, competition classes, founder voting control, share classes, headcount, full-year revenue
    backsC01C03C20C26C39C40C47C48
  2. S02primarycompany filing2026-07-30
    income statement, revenue by product, concentration with Citadel Securities, order-flow arrangements, match incentives, the convertible notes, litigation on event contracts, Trump Accounts, odd-lot risk
    backsC01C02C03C05C14C15C16C18C19C21C23C33C41C47C48
  3. S03primarycompany release2026-07-29
    key metrics, revenue by product, event contracts and crypto volumes, deposits, margin, buybacks, expense outlook, Trump Accounts sign-ups, Rothera
    backsC02C04C05C06C07C09C12C13C16C17C19C21C22C25C35C37
  4. S04primarytranscript2026-07-29
    Robinhood Q2 2026 earnings call (FMP transcript)
    the 20% deposit target, July trading and deposits, prediction-market users, Rothera's rank, routing to Kalshi, the tenfold ambition
    So our goal, as we have said, is 20% on an annual basis. I do not look at any particular quarter and month.
    backsC11C22C34C36C38
  5. S05primarycompany release2026-02-10
    Q4 and 2025 revenue, earnings and the 2026 expense outlook
    backsC04
  6. S12primarycompany release2026-09-10
    August customers, assets, deposits, trading volumes, event contracts, margin and securities lending
    Net Deposits were $4.0 billion in August, or a 14% annualized growth rate relative to July 2026 Total Platform Assets.
    backsC10C35
  7. S13primarycompany release2026-08-12
    July deposits, trading volumes and event contracts
    Net Deposits were $5.6 billion in July, or an 18% annualized growth rate relative to June 2026 Total Platform Assets.
    backsC10
  8. S14secondaryindustry data2026-05-04
    options cleared industry-wide in April 2026 and 2025
    Total options cleared contract volume reached 1,446,072,023 in April 2026, up 13.9 per cent from 1,270,085,224 in Apri 2025.
    backsC13C37
  9. S15secondaryindustry data2026-06-02
    equity, ETF and index options cleared in May 2026 and 2025
    Equity options contracts saw a 25.5% year-over-year increase, totalling 803.1 million for the month. Index options contracts experienced an even sharper rise of 32.8% to 122.6 million.
    backsC13C37
  10. S16secondaryindustry data2026-07-02
    options cleared industry-wide in June 2026 and 2025
    Total options cleared contract volume reached 1,603,491,559 in June 2026, up 45.0 per cent from 1,105,752,074 in June 2025.
    backsC13C37
  11. S17primarycompany filing2026-06-25
    the $2.2B zero-coupon notes, conversion terms and capped calls
    backsC18
  12. S18secondaryindustry data2026-07-03
    Kalshi and Polymarket monthly dollar volume
    Kalshi and Polymarket posted $44.8 billion in combined June 2026 volume, up 75% month-on-month, driven mainly by FIFA World Cup 2026 betting, with Kalshi rising 87.4% to $31.5 billion.
    backsC24C36
  13. S19primarygovernment data2026-09-11
    US household holdings of equities
    Financial assets include deposits and money market funds ($20.3 trillion), directly and indirectly held equity shares ($74.0 trillion) and debt securities ($12.2 trillion)
    backsC25
  14. S20secondaryvendor data2026-10-04
    Research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest), frozen at content/HOOD/research-pack.json
    price history, earnings surprises, analyst estimates and rating series, short interest, cohort multiples and the filer's XBRL revenue series
    backsC03C04C27C28C29C30C31
  15. S21primarycompany filing2026-04-30
    its competitor list naming Robinhood first, and its order-flow and interest revenue model
    backsC26
  16. S22primarycompany filing2026-02-12
    its retail offering of crypto, equities, prediction markets and derivatives
    backsC26
  17. S23primarycompany filing2026-10-04
    Form 4 filings read by insider_fetch.py, October 2025 to October 2026
    each open-market sale and purchase with its Rule 10b5-1 flag
    backsC32
  18. S24primarycompany filing2026-02-20
    its electronic brokerage for individuals and institutions, and ForecastEx event contracts
    read, but no claim rests on it
  19. S25primarycompany filing2026-04-22
    executive officers and tenure, director biographies, the beneficial ownership table and voting power, the 2025 bonus measures and payout, the CEO's pay and the 2019 market-based award
    backsC42C43C44C45C46
  20. S26primarycompany filing2026-05-08
    Jeffrey Pinner leaving the Chief Technology Officer role on May 7, 2026
    backsC43
  21. S27primarycompany filing2026-10-27
    Q3 2026 revenue, income, customers, assets, net deposits, Gold subscribers, trading volumes, margin book and the lowered expense outlook.
    backsC08C12C17C49
  22. S28primarytranscript2026-10-27
    Robinhood Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 27 October 2026
    October's deposits and trading pace, the Rothera run rate and non-sports share, why crypto revenue fell, the Q4 cost plan, the crypto.com and og.com stakes and the rate sensitivity
    October net deposits are over $13 billion in the month, great to see, and that includes $6 billion of the Dell family gift to Trump accounts.
    backsC11C22C50C51
Rendered from content/HOOD/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-28. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.