← All thesesGWRENeutralMedium convictionSaturday 3 October 2026עברית

Guidewire Software

Guidewire sells the software that property and casualty insurers use to write policies, send bills and pay claims, and runs it for them in its cloud.

Our viewNeutral Medium conviction
The scores
The profile · 1-4
Growth3/4 →

Revenue up about 23% two years running and ARR up 19%, much of it licence customers moving to cloud; 2027 guided near 16%.

Business quality4/4 →

In P&C core systems customers cannot leave cheaply: attrition under 1.5%, migrations of years, rivals gone private; Tier 1 insurers may build with AI.

Financial position4/4 ↑

About $525M of net cash after the 2029 notes, $358.7M of free cash flow and no need for outside money.

Execution record3/4 →

Beat revenue estimates four reports running and turned a loss into a profit, but Q3 deals slipped and the Q1 ARR guide disappointed.

Per share capture4/4 →

Shares down 3.0% in fiscal 2026 as $606.3M of buybacks outran $181.8M of stock pay; the 2029 convertible is capped.

Potential3/4 →

Bounded but largely committed: about $4.3B contracted and over half of next year's new ARR signed; the fee is 0.11% of U.S. premiums.

Risk profile3/4 →

No customer above 10%, but the cloud runs on one provider and the largest insurers hold real bargaining power.

Valuation2/4 ↑

At 79.7 times operating profit the price needs about 15.5% growth and a margin after stock pay near 28% by 2029, above today's adjusted margin.

Evidence quality3/4 →

Revenue, cash and contracts are filed and customers' filings back the switching cost; attrition and the AI threat rest on management's words.

The Verdict

We rate Guidewire neutral. It sells the core software that home, car and business insurers use to write policies, send bills and pay claims, and customers almost never leave because moving takes years, so the business is strong. The shares fell about a third in a year on fears that AI will make it easy to replace and on a softer outlook. Even so, the price needs its profit margin after share pay to nearly triple, so it is full, not cheap. The view hinges on the price falling or that margin rising. A sturdy business, but not a low price.

The long caseInsurers are moving their core systems onto vendors' clouds and rarely leave once moved; Guidewire must turn that shift into a much wider profit margin.

The evidence under this - 7 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Guidewire sells InsuranceSuite (PolicyCenter, ClaimCenter, BillingCenter, PricingCenter and UnderwritingCenter) and the smaller InsuranceNow to property and casualty insurers, both run for the customer on Guidewire Cloud Platform, which is hosted on Amazon Web Services, with data, analytics and digital applications around them.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
C03facthigh confidence
Core subscriptions are priced on the direct written premium the insurer runs through the platform; initial subscriptions generally last five years, some seven or more, with annual renewals after that, and are mostly billed annually in advance.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
C08management claimmedium confidence
Gross ARR attrition in fiscal 2026 was below 1.5% for all ARR and below 1% for core-system customers, the lowest since Guidewire began measuring; management says this added about one point to ARR growth and is not assumed for fiscal 2027.
against this

The 10-K says large customers have forced lower prices, lower ARR and slower ramps, so a customer can stay while paying less (S01).

current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
C30facthigh confidence
Reuters reported on 5 February 2026 that a selloff wiping nearly $1 trillion from software and services shares was triggered by a new legal tool from Anthropic's Claude; Guidewire fell from $160.03 on 23 January to $122.22 on 23 February.
historical · 2026-01 to 2026-02written 2026-10-03
C33facthigh confidence
Over the year to 2 October 2026 the price fell 33.9% while revenue per share rose 26.6%, so the price paid for each dollar of revenue fell 47.8%; diluted shares fell 3.1%.
historical · 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-02written 2026-10-03
C34estimatemedium confidence
At $152.15, on 81,992,669 shares and net of $525.3M of cash over the convertible notes, Guidewire is worth about $11.95B as a company: 79.7 times fiscal 2026 GAAP operating income, 57.7 times the 2027 guide midpoint and 8.1 times revenue.
derivedprice from the pack (C33), shares from the 10-K cover (C17), cash and notes from C16, operating income from C14 and C09
against this

The vendor's market value and enterprise multiples use a different share count and debt figure, so its 8.8 times revenue reads about 9% higher (S05).

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-03
C35estimatemedium confidence
Carried three years at 10% and divided by 25, the company value needs about $636M of fiscal 2029 GAAP operating income; on revenue growing about 15.5% a year from the 2027 guide midpoint to about $2.29B, that is a 27.8% margin, against 10.2% in 2026 and about 12% guided for 2027.
derivedcompany value from C34, revenue and operating-income guide from C09, a 25 times multiple for a mature subscription business as A03
against this

Non-GAAP operating margin is already 23% and guided at 24%, so the gap is mostly stock pay, which could shrink as a share of revenue (S02, S01).

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-03
01

The company

Every insurer needs a system that holds its policies: who is covered, for what, at what price, what they owe and what claims they have made. Many still run old programs written in-house.

Guidewire sells a ready-made replacement. The insurer sets up its own products, prices and rules inside it, and Guidewire runs it on its cloud. Installing it takes months to years: Mercury General started in 2010 and was still moving across in 2021, and Donegal is moving its Guidewire systems to the cloud through early 2027.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C01facthigh confidence
Guidewire sells InsuranceSuite (PolicyCenter, ClaimCenter, BillingCenter, PricingCenter and UnderwritingCenter) and the smaller InsuranceNow to property and casualty insurers, both run for the customer on Guidewire Cloud Platform, which is hosted on Amazon Web Services, with data, analytics and digital applications around them.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
C02facthigh confidence
The core applications are the insurer's system of record: product definition, rating, underwriting, policy issue and changes, billing and claims, configured to each insurer's products and integrated with its own and third parties' systems; implementation and testing typically take six to 24 months or longer.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
C03facthigh confidence
Core subscriptions are priced on the direct written premium the insurer runs through the platform; initial subscriptions generally last five years, some seven or more, with annual renewals after that, and are mostly billed annually in advance.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
C22facthigh confidence
Mercury General piloted Guidewire in 2009, began the implementation in 2010 and in its 2021 10-K was still migrating from legacy systems to InsuranceSuite, expecting to finish in 2022.
historical · 2009-2022written 2026-10-03
C23facthigh confidence
Donegal Group's 2025 10-K says its mutual parent will move its on-premises Guidewire claims, billing and policy systems to Guidewire Cloud from 2026, claims and billing in early 2027, and names implementation delays, cost overruns and data-migration errors as risks.
current state · 2026-03-06written 2026-10-03

How it makes money

An insurer signs a subscription, usually for five years and then renewed yearly, priced on the premiums it runs through the system. As customers write more business, the fee grows with them.

Subscriptions were $915.8M of fiscal 2026's $1.48B revenue and grew 37%, as older customers who bought licences move to the cloud. Contracts already signed but not yet counted as revenue add up to about $4.3B.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C03facthigh confidence
Core subscriptions are priced on the direct written premium the insurer runs through the platform; initial subscriptions generally last five years, some seven or more, with annual renewals after that, and are mostly billed annually in advance.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
C06facthigh confidence
In fiscal 2026 subscription revenue was $915.8M, up 37%, term licences $234.6M, down 7%, services $269.9M, up 23%, and support $55.1M; in Q4 licences fell 18% and total revenue grew 15% to $411.1M.
historical · FY2026written 2026-10-03
C07management claimhigh confidence
ARR was $1,242M at 31 July 2026 at the prior year's exchange rates, up 19% in constant currency from $1,041M, and fully ramped ARR, which counts signed step-ups, was $1,578M, up 22%; management says cloud ARR grew 35% and is 84% of ARR.
against this

ARR is the company's own measure and differs from revenue, since part of a contract is allocated to licence or services revenue (S01).

current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
C18facthigh confidence
Remaining performance obligations, contracted revenue not yet recognised, were about $4.3B at 31 July 2026.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
StreamShare of sales (FY2026)How it earns it
Subscription62.1%Guidewire Cloud: the core suite run for the insurer, priced on the premium it runs through the platform, mostly billed yearly in advance.
Services18.3%Implementation and consulting to configure and move an insurer onto the platform, sold near cost.
Term licences15.9%Software the insurer runs itself on multi-year licences, recognised mostly up front and shrinking as customers move to cloud.
Support3.7%Maintenance and upgrades for self-managed licence customers.

Who runs it

Mike Rosenbaum, who ran products at Salesforce, has been chief executive since 2019; John Mullen runs sales and delivery as president, and Jeff Cooper has run finance since 2020. Under them customers began moving to Guidewire's cloud and losses turned into profits. Insiders own under half a percent of the company, so they are hired managers, not owners. Their bonus and long-term shares ride mostly on recurring sales and on profit counted after share pay; nothing rides on cash or per-share results.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C50facthigh confidence
Mike Rosenbaum has been chief executive since August 2019, after running product at Salesforce; John Mullen has been president since February 2022, from Capgemini's insurance practice, leading sales, delivery and customer success; Jeff Cooper has been chief financial officer since June 2020, interim from March 2020; all three spoke on the Q4 fiscal 2026 call.
current state · 2026-09-03written 2026-10-04
C47facthigh confidence
At 20 October 2025 the 13 directors and executive officers owned 387,731 shares, about 0.46% of the 85,018,893 outstanding; Mike Rosenbaum, the largest insider, held 171,707, about 0.20%; BlackRock at 10.12%, Vanguard at 9.81%, Baron at 7.07% and MFS at 5.22% were the holders above 5%; there is one share class.
against this

Insiders sold 324,801 shares in the year to October 2026 and bought none (C38), so the stake has shrunk since the record date.

current state · 2025-10-20written 2026-10-04
C48facthigh confidence
For fiscal 2025 the cash bonus paid on constant-currency ARR (51%), adjusted non-GAAP operating income that keeps stock pay as a cost (34%) and a discretionary strategic scorecard (15%), and paid 130% of target; performance RSUs cliff-vest after three years on ARR (60%) and that operating income (40%), averaged over three years, with a stock-price kicker for the chief executive and president lifting the maximum to 250%.
against this
  • Fiscal 2026 ARR of $1,242M (C07) sits above the $1.235B maximum the fiscal 2025 grant set for that year, though struck at a different year's exchange rates, so the plan was set to pay near its cap.
  • Nothing pays on free cash flow or a per-share figure, and part of each executive's equity vests on time alone.
historical · FY2025written 2026-10-04
02

Why it wins, and who could beat it

Why customers come back

Once an insurer's products, rules and data live inside Guidewire, leaving means repeating a project that takes one to three years and sometimes more, while the business keeps running. A rival, Duck Creek, wrote that this makes customers of a competitor hard to win.

So customers stay: fewer than 1.5% of recurring revenue was lost in fiscal 2026. The weak spot is the biggest insurers, which can bargain hard; Guidewire says some have forced lower prices.

The evidence under this - 7 claims
C08management claimmedium confidence
Gross ARR attrition in fiscal 2026 was below 1.5% for all ARR and below 1% for core-system customers, the lowest since Guidewire began measuring; management says this added about one point to ARR growth and is not assumed for fiscal 2027.
against this

The 10-K says large customers have forced lower prices, lower ARR and slower ramps, so a customer can stay while paying less (S01).

current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
C21facthigh confidence
Duck Creek, a rival, wrote in its last 10-K that selling to an insurer already using a competitor is hard because of the high costs and risk of business interruption in switching providers, and named Guidewire first among specialist rivals.
historical · FY2022written 2026-10-03
C22facthigh confidence
Mercury General piloted Guidewire in 2009, began the implementation in 2010 and in its 2021 10-K was still migrating from legacy systems to InsuranceSuite, expecting to finish in 2022.
historical · 2009-2022written 2026-10-03
C25factmedium confidence
Novarica's survey of insurers found P&C core-system projects average one to three years and can run past four, with software licence fees closer to 25% of total project cost.
against this

The survey is from 2010, before cloud delivery, so durations and the licence share may have changed (S11).

historical · 2010written 2026-10-03
C27estimatemedium confidence
Guidewire's ARR of $1.24B is about 0.11% of 2025 U.S. direct premiums, and its customers also write premiums in 43 other countries, so the fee is a small fraction of the premium the system administers.
derivedARR from C07 over U.S. premiums from C26; the global premium base is larger and not measured here
against this
  • Customers also write premiums outside the U.S., so the true share of premium is lower than 0.11% (S01).
  • The fee understates what an insurer pays in all, since licences are about a quarter of a replacement project's cost (S11).
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
C20facthigh confidence
The 10-K says the largest insurers have significant bargaining power, can buy from others or build internally, and have already forced Guidewire to cut average prices and ARR and agree to ramps that delay fully ramped ARR.
current state · 2026-09-11written 2026-10-03
C23facthigh confidence
Donegal Group's 2025 10-K says its mutual parent will move its on-premises Guidewire claims, billing and policy systems to Guidewire Cloud from 2026, claims and billing in early 2027, and names implementation delays, cost overruns and data-migration errors as risks.
current state · 2026-03-06written 2026-10-03

The threat

The old specialist rivals, Duck Creek and Sapiens, were bought by private-equity firms. The new threat is the insurers themselves: Guidewire's chief executive says the largest may build more of their own tools with AI model companies, and that his ready-made product matters less to them. That fear drove the February selloff.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C19facthigh confidence
The 10-K names as competitors customers' own systems, which it says AI may accelerate; specialist vendors Duck Creek, Majesco, Origami Risk, Sapiens and DXC; horizontal vendors SAP, Salesforce and ServiceNow; and enterprise AI platforms and new AI entrants.
current state · 2026-09-11written 2026-10-03
C28management claimmedium confidence
On the Q4 call the chief executive said the largest insurers may invest more to differentiate themselves with one of the frontier AI model companies, and that Guidewire's ready-made approach is less valuable to them than to smaller insurers.
against this

He added that Tier 1 insurers can build agents with Guidewire's tooling and that it is early in how this plays out (S03).

current state · 2026-09-03written 2026-10-03
C30facthigh confidence
Reuters reported on 5 February 2026 that a selloff wiping nearly $1 trillion from software and services shares was triggered by a new legal tool from Anthropic's Claude; Guidewire fell from $160.03 on 23 January to $122.22 on 23 February.
historical · 2026-01 to 2026-02written 2026-10-03
C41facthigh confidence
Duck Creek was taken private by Vista Equity Partners in 2023, Majesco by Thoma Bravo in 2020 and Sapiens by Advent in 2025; DXC's insurance business was $1,279M of revenue, about a tenth of DXC, growing 3.6% organically.
current state · 2026-10-03written 2026-10-03

The rivals: DXC, SAP, CRM, NOW, and 3 more that are private, in-house or listed abroad.

Who else does this, rival by rival
TickerRivalWhere it competesHow far alongPriced against it
In-houseInsurers' own systems, built faster with AI coding tools and frontier model companiesPriced against it: In-houseCore systems for property and casualty insurers (InsuranceSuite, InsuranceNow and the cloud platform)AnnouncedIn-house
PrivateDuck Creek TechnologiesPriced against it: PrivateCore systems for property and casualty insurers (InsuranceSuite, InsuranceNow and the cloud platform)On salePrivate
PrivateSapiens, Majesco and Origami RiskPriced against it: PrivateCore systems for property and casualty insurers (InsuranceSuite, InsuranceNow and the cloud platform)On salePrivate
DXCDXC Technology's insurance softwarePriced against it: Small part of itCore systems for property and casualty insurers (InsuranceSuite, InsuranceNow and the cloud platform)On saleSmall part of it
SAP · CRM · NOWSAP, Salesforce and ServiceNowPriced against it: Different productCore systems for property and casualty insurers (InsuranceSuite, InsuranceNow and the cloud platform)On saleDifferent product
03

How big it could get

How big this could get

Nobody outside the vendors publishes what insurers spend on these systems. What can be measured is the base the fee is struck on: U.S. home, car and business insurers wrote $1.11T of premiums in 2025, about half of it by the ten largest.

Guidewire's recurring revenue is about 0.11% of that, before counting customers in 43 other countries. The room to grow is more premiums moving onto its system, not a higher share of each dollar.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C26facthigh confidence
U.S. property and casualty insurers wrote $1,109.8B of direct premiums in 2025, the ten largest groups 47.87% of it; State Farm wrote $115.3B and Nationwide $16.7B.
historical · 2025written 2026-10-03
C27estimatemedium confidence
Guidewire's ARR of $1.24B is about 0.11% of 2025 U.S. direct premiums, and its customers also write premiums in 43 other countries, so the fee is a small fraction of the premium the system administers.
derivedARR from C07 over U.S. premiums from C26; the global premium base is larger and not measured here
against this
  • Customers also write premiums outside the U.S., so the true share of premium is lower than 0.11% (S01).
  • The fee understates what an insurer pays in all, since licences are about a quarter of a replacement project's cost (S11).
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
C07management claimhigh confidence
ARR was $1,242M at 31 July 2026 at the prior year's exchange rates, up 19% in constant currency from $1,041M, and fully ramped ARR, which counts signed step-ups, was $1,578M, up 22%; management says cloud ARR grew 35% and is 84% of ARR.
against this

ARR is the company's own measure and differs from revenue, since part of a contract is allocated to licence or services revenue (S01).

current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03

Who has signed

About $4.3B of contracted revenue is still to come. Nationwide, a customer for over a decade, signed in fiscal 2026 to move to Guidewire's cloud, and Donegal's own annual report describes its move. Neither discloses the size.

The evidence under this - 3 claims
C18facthigh confidence
Remaining performance obligations, contracted revenue not yet recognised, were about $4.3B at 31 July 2026.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
C12management claimmedium confidence
In fiscal 2026 Guidewire counted 62 core-system cloud deals, 26 of them in Q4, including a long-term cloud migration agreement with Nationwide, a customer for over a decade, which also became the first U.S. Tier 1 customer for PricingCenter.
against this

Neither the value nor the term of the Nationwide agreement is disclosed (S03, S01).

historical · FY2026written 2026-10-03
C23facthigh confidence
Donegal Group's 2025 10-K says its mutual parent will move its on-premises Guidewire claims, billing and policy systems to Guidewire Cloud from 2026, claims and billing in early 2027, and names implementation delays, cost overruns and data-migration errors as risks.
current state · 2026-03-06written 2026-10-03
Where the growth is coming from, business by business

Where the growth is coming from

BusinessShare of revenueGrowth: last quarterLast half-yearLast yearShare in 3 years at its half-year rate
Subscription62%+37.8%+36.8%-74%
Service17%+30.1%+26.1%-16%
Term License17%-6.5%+0.4%-8%
Support4%-10.5%-11.6%-1%
Whole company100%+24.0%+25.2%-100%

On the filed split through 2026-01-31, if each business keeps its last half-year's growth, the company grows about 27% next year and 30% in year 3, against 22.7% over the last twelve months. Subscription grows fastest: it grows 37% against 11% for the rest, and would be 74% of revenue by then. A scenario, not a forecast: no business holds its rate.

How we read it: Subscription grows faster mostly because licence customers convert to it, which moves revenue between lines rather than adding it, so the score believes the blend and ARR, not the subscription line.

04

The results

The numbers

Is it growing?Steady

Sales grew 23% in the year to Jul 2026, about the same pace as the 23% in the year before.

Jul 2022: $813MJul 2023: $905MJul 2024: $980MJul 2025: $1.20BJul 2026: $1.48B$813M$1.48B
Is it profitable?Healthy

Operating margin is 10%, up from −17% in the year to Jul 2023.

Jul 2022: −25%Jul 2023: −17%Jul 2024: −5.4%Jul 2025: 3.4%Jul 2026: 10%−25%10%
Does growth pay off?Pays off

Running costs take 54¢ of each sales dollar, down from 71¢ in the year to Jul 2022.

Jul 2022: 71¢Jul 2023: 67¢Jul 2024: 65¢Jul 2025: 59¢Jul 2026: 54¢71¢54¢
Does it earn good returns?Low

Each dollar put into the business earns 9.6% a year after tax, up from 2.6% in the year to Jul 2025.

Jul 2025: 2.6%Jul 2026: 9.6%2.6%9.6%
Is it making cash?Strong

It turned 26% of sales into free cash, $378M over the year.

Jul 2022: −$47.5MJul 2023: $32.6MJul 2024: $189MJul 2025: $295MJul 2026: $378M−$47.5M$378M
How steady is it?Steady

Yearly sales growth has ranged from +8.3% to +23% over the last 5 years.

Jul 2022: +9.3%Jul 2023: +11%Jul 2024: +8.3%Jul 2025: +23%Jul 2026: +23%+9.3%+23%
Are shares being diluted?Stable

The share count rose 2.2% in 4.0 years, and pay in shares costs 12% of sales.

Jul 2022: 83.6MJul 2023: 82.2MJul 2024: 82.3MJul 2025: 85.9MJul 2026: 85.4M83.6M85.4M
All the numbers

Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-04. Fiscal years end in July.

Jul 2022Jul 2023Jul 2024Jul 2025Jul 2026
Size and growth
Sales$813M$905M$980M$1.20B$1.48B
Sales growth+9.3%+11%+8.3%+23%+23%
Profit
Gross margin46%51%59%63%64%
Operating margin−25%−17%−5.4%3.4%10%
Net margin−22%−12%−0.6%5.8%9.4%
What growth costs, per sales dollar
Research and development28%28%27%25%23%
Sales and marketing22%21%20%19%18%
General and admin20%19%17%15%13%
Pay in shares17%16%15%13%12%
Capital spending1.2%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.8%
Cash
Cash from operations−$37.9M$38.4M$196M$301M$390M
Free cash flow−$47.5M$32.6M$189M$295M$378M
Balance sheet
Cash and short-term investments$976M$799M$1.00B$1.15B$753M
Debt$358M$397M$399M--
Net cash$618M$402M$605M--
Returns and shares
Return on capital---2.6%9.6%
Shares (diluted)83.6M82.2M82.3M85.9M85.4M

What growth costs

Growth has been making Guidewire more profitable. Since the costly early years of running customers' systems in its own cloud, every kind of cost has shrunk as a share of sales: running the cloud most, then admin, selling and research, even though research spending kept rising. Share pay is still a large cost and grows each year, but more slowly than sales.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C46facthigh confidence
Per sales dollar, R&D fell from 28.2 cents in fiscal 2022 to 23.1 in fiscal 2026, sales and marketing from 22.5 to 17.6, general and administrative from 20.3 to 13.5, stock pay from 16.9 to 12.3 and cost of revenue from 53.6 to 35.8, while R&D dollars rose 48%; capital spending stayed at or below 1.2 cents.
against this
  • Fiscal 2022 ran the other way: cost of revenue rose to 53.6 cents from 47.6 as cloud hosting was built ahead of its revenue, and operating margin fell to minus 24.5% from minus 14.2%.
  • Stock pay still rose 58% in dollars from fiscal 2021 to 2026, to $181.8M (C14), and is guided to about $202M in fiscal 2027 (S03).
historical · FY2021 to FY2026written 2026-10-04
C14facthigh confidence
GAAP operating income was $149.9M in fiscal 2026, 10.2% of revenue, against $41.1M in 2025 and a loss of $52.6M in 2024; non-GAAP operating income was $339.9M, and the gap is mostly $181.8M of stock pay, 12.3% of revenue.
historical · FY2024-FY2026written 2026-10-03

The last report (3 Sep)

Quarter ended July 2026, filed figures.

15%
Sales growth
against the same quarter a year earlier
10.3%
Growth from the quarter before
against 3.7% the quarter before that
15¢
Operating profit
per dollar of sales

In the year to July 2026 revenue grew 23%, recurring revenue 19% and the value of signed contracts once fully stepped up 22%. Fewer customers left than in any year Guidewire has measured.

The outlook for fiscal 2027 disappointed. Recurring revenue is guided to grow 18%, the first quarter's figure came in below what analysts expected, and the plan assumes customer losses return to normal. Management says more than half of next year's new recurring revenue is already signed.

What it did to the thesisThe year showed the customer base holding through the AI scare: losses fell to a record low and the largest customers kept signing. It left open how fast new business arrives, since the next year's outlook assumes more customers leave and the first quarter came in soft.

The quarter in detail

Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.

Earnings per share $0.99 against $0.93 expected.

The evidence under this - 7 claims
C05facthigh confidence
Revenue was $1,475.4M in fiscal 2026, up 22.7%, after $1,202.5M in 2025 (up 22.6%) and $980.5M in 2024.
historical · FY2024-FY2026written 2026-10-03
C06facthigh confidence
In fiscal 2026 subscription revenue was $915.8M, up 37%, term licences $234.6M, down 7%, services $269.9M, up 23%, and support $55.1M; in Q4 licences fell 18% and total revenue grew 15% to $411.1M.
historical · FY2026written 2026-10-03
C07management claimhigh confidence
ARR was $1,242M at 31 July 2026 at the prior year's exchange rates, up 19% in constant currency from $1,041M, and fully ramped ARR, which counts signed step-ups, was $1,578M, up 22%; management says cloud ARR grew 35% and is 84% of ARR.
against this

ARR is the company's own measure and differs from revenue, since part of a contract is allocated to licence or services revenue (S01).

current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
C08management claimmedium confidence
Gross ARR attrition in fiscal 2026 was below 1.5% for all ARR and below 1% for core-system customers, the lowest since Guidewire began measuring; management says this added about one point to ARR growth and is not assumed for fiscal 2027.
against this

The 10-K says large customers have forced lower prices, lower ARR and slower ramps, so a customer can stay while paying less (S01).

current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
C09management claimmedium confidence
The fiscal 2027 guide is ARR of $1,450M to $1,460M (18% constant-currency growth at the midpoint), revenue of $1,707M to $1,727M, GAAP operating income of $197M to $217M, non-GAAP operating income of $403M to $423M and operating cash flow of $445M to $465M.
against this
  • The guide assumes attrition returns to normal, so the record-low fiscal 2026 rate is not repeated (S03).
  • Licence revenue is guided down about $46M, to about $189M, as customers move to cloud (S03).
forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C10management claimmedium confidence
For Q1 fiscal 2027 Guidewire guided ending ARR of $1,253M to $1,259M, revenue of $372M to $378M and GAAP operating income of $19M to $25M; Baird's analyst said on the call that the ARR guide came in below consensus.
against this

Management attributed part of the gap to the currency reset of the ARR base (S03).

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C11management claimmedium confidence
Management says more than half of the net new ARR in the fiscal 2027 outlook is already under signed contracts with ramp dates, and that 105 customers had fully ramped ARR above $5M against 86 a year earlier.
against this

The contracted part is not disclosed in dollars; only the fully ramped total is (S02).

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
What management did with the money

Guidewire spent $606.3M buying back 4.1M of its own shares in fiscal 2026, more than the $181.8M it paid staff in shares, so the share count fell 3.0%.

Insiders in 2026Q3: 14 purchases and 34 sales, from their Form 4 filings.

The evidence under this - 2 claims
C17facthigh confidence
In fiscal 2026 Guidewire bought back 4,085,350 shares at an average $148.41, $606.3M in all, leaving $31.9M of the $500M programme; shares outstanding fell 3.0% to 81,992,467 from 84,530,418.
historical · FY2026written 2026-10-03
C14facthigh confidence
GAAP operating income was $149.9M in fiscal 2026, 10.2% of revenue, against $41.1M in 2025 and a loss of $52.6M in 2024; non-GAAP operating income was $339.9M, and the gap is mostly $181.8M of stock pay, 12.3% of revenue.
historical · FY2024-FY2026written 2026-10-03
05

The price, and where we disagree

In short. Full. The business is sturdy, but the price needs profit after share pay to rise far above anything Guidewire has earned or guided.

Share price
$152.15
close,
Price for each $1 of yearly profit
92.2
its 6-year normal -49.1
Company value for each $1 of cash profit
60.8
its 6-year normal 12.3

The stock fell hard on three occasions in eight months: in February with a software selloff blamed on new AI tools, in June when some deals slipped, and by 19.9% in one day on 4 September on the new outlook. Over the year the price fell 34% while sales per share rose 27%.

The Q1 fiscal 2027 report on 3 December is the first test of that outlook, and an investor day on 27 October may set new profit targets.

The evidence under this - 5 claims
C30facthigh confidence
Reuters reported on 5 February 2026 that a selloff wiping nearly $1 trillion from software and services shares was triggered by a new legal tool from Anthropic's Claude; Guidewire fell from $160.03 on 23 January to $122.22 on 23 February.
historical · 2026-01 to 2026-02written 2026-10-03
C31facthigh confidence
On the Q3 call, held 4 June 2026, management said a couple of expected deals did not close in the quarter, with ARR up 19% to $1.147B; the stock fell from $171.42 on 1 June to $102.69 on 22 June.
historical · 2026-06written 2026-10-03
C32facthigh confidence
The day after the fiscal 2027 guide, 4 September 2026, the stock fell 19.9%, from $202.86 to $162.42; it closed at $152.15 on 2 October.
historical · 2026-09written 2026-10-03
C33facthigh confidence
Over the year to 2 October 2026 the price fell 33.9% while revenue per share rose 26.6%, so the price paid for each dollar of revenue fell 47.8%; diluted shares fell 3.1%.
historical · 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-02written 2026-10-03
C10management claimmedium confidence
For Q1 fiscal 2027 Guidewire guided ending ARR of $1,253M to $1,259M, revenue of $372M to $378M and GAAP operating income of $19M to $25M; Baird's analyst said on the call that the ARR guide came in below consensus.
against this

Management attributed part of the gap to the currency reset of the ARR base (S03).

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
How we read the multiple

Buyers pay about 80 times last year's operating profit, the profit left after paying staff, including in shares. Working back:

  1. Company value of about $11.95B, grown 10% a year, is about $15.9B in 2029.
  2. At 25 times profit, a common price for a mature software business, that needs about $636M of 2029 operating profit.
  3. Sales growing about 15.5% a year reach about $2.29B, so the margin needed is 27.8%.
  4. In fiscal 2026 that margin was 10.2%, and about 12% is guided for 2027.

Against its own history. Below where the shares usually traded, because the fear of AI cut what buyers pay for each dollar of sales even as sales kept growing.

The evidence under this - 4 claims
C34estimatemedium confidence
At $152.15, on 81,992,669 shares and net of $525.3M of cash over the convertible notes, Guidewire is worth about $11.95B as a company: 79.7 times fiscal 2026 GAAP operating income, 57.7 times the 2027 guide midpoint and 8.1 times revenue.
derivedprice from the pack (C33), shares from the 10-K cover (C17), cash and notes from C16, operating income from C14 and C09
against this

The vendor's market value and enterprise multiples use a different share count and debt figure, so its 8.8 times revenue reads about 9% higher (S05).

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-03
C35estimatemedium confidence
Carried three years at 10% and divided by 25, the company value needs about $636M of fiscal 2029 GAAP operating income; on revenue growing about 15.5% a year from the 2027 guide midpoint to about $2.29B, that is a 27.8% margin, against 10.2% in 2026 and about 12% guided for 2027.
derivedcompany value from C34, revenue and operating-income guide from C09, a 25 times multiple for a mature subscription business as A03
against this

Non-GAAP operating margin is already 23% and guided at 24%, so the gap is mostly stock pay, which could shrink as a share of revenue (S02, S01).

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-03
C14facthigh confidence
GAAP operating income was $149.9M in fiscal 2026, 10.2% of revenue, against $41.1M in 2025 and a loss of $52.6M in 2024; non-GAAP operating income was $339.9M, and the gap is mostly $181.8M of stock pay, 12.3% of revenue.
historical · FY2024-FY2026written 2026-10-03
C09management claimmedium confidence
The fiscal 2027 guide is ARR of $1,450M to $1,460M (18% constant-currency growth at the midpoint), revenue of $1,707M to $1,727M, GAAP operating income of $197M to $217M, non-GAAP operating income of $403M to $423M and operating cash flow of $445M to $465M.
against this
  • The guide assumes attrition returns to normal, so the record-low fiscal 2026 rate is not repeated (S03).
  • Licence revenue is guided down about $46M, to about $189M, as customers move to cloud (S03).
forwardwritten 2026-10-03
Priced against its rivals

None of the listed rivals above sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. DXC Technology Company does too, but as a small part of a much bigger company, so its price says little about this one. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.

Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Duck Creek Technologies, Sapiens International, Majesco, Origami Risk, Insurers' in-house builds.

Where we disagree with the market

The market believes

Software that AI will make easier to replace, now growing more slowly.

We believe

Insurers take years to move off it and AI so far sells on top of it, but the price is still not low.

The market sold the shares on AI and on the pace of growth, yet the customer record moved the other way: losses hit a record low and Nationwide, one of the largest, signed to move further onto it.

We would be wrong if a large customer replaced Guidewire with a system of its own, or if customer losses rose above 3% of recurring revenue in a year.

What analysts say, and the evidence
Analysts positive
81%
of 16, 1 Oct
Four months earlier
88%
of 16, 1 Jun
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C33facthigh confidence
Over the year to 2 October 2026 the price fell 33.9% while revenue per share rose 26.6%, so the price paid for each dollar of revenue fell 47.8%; diluted shares fell 3.1%.
historical · 2025-10-01 to 2026-10-02written 2026-10-03
C30facthigh confidence
Reuters reported on 5 February 2026 that a selloff wiping nearly $1 trillion from software and services shares was triggered by a new legal tool from Anthropic's Claude; Guidewire fell from $160.03 on 23 January to $122.22 on 23 February.
historical · 2026-01 to 2026-02written 2026-10-03
C08management claimmedium confidence
Gross ARR attrition in fiscal 2026 was below 1.5% for all ARR and below 1% for core-system customers, the lowest since Guidewire began measuring; management says this added about one point to ARR growth and is not assumed for fiscal 2027.
against this

The 10-K says large customers have forced lower prices, lower ARR and slower ramps, so a customer can stay while paying less (S01).

current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
C22facthigh confidence
Mercury General piloted Guidewire in 2009, began the implementation in 2010 and in its 2021 10-K was still migrating from legacy systems to InsuranceSuite, expecting to finish in 2022.
historical · 2009-2022written 2026-10-03
C28management claimmedium confidence
On the Q4 call the chief executive said the largest insurers may invest more to differentiate themselves with one of the frontier AI model companies, and that Guidewire's ready-made approach is less valuable to them than to smaller insurers.
against this

He added that Tier 1 insurers can build agents with Guidewire's tooling and that it is early in how this plays out (S03).

current state · 2026-09-03written 2026-10-03
C35estimatemedium confidence
Carried three years at 10% and divided by 25, the company value needs about $636M of fiscal 2029 GAAP operating income; on revenue growing about 15.5% a year from the 2027 guide midpoint to about $2.29B, that is a 27.8% margin, against 10.2% in 2026 and about 12% guided for 2027.
derivedcompany value from C34, revenue and operating-income guide from C09, a 25 times multiple for a mature subscription business as A03
against this

Non-GAAP operating margin is already 23% and guided at 24%, so the gap is mostly stock pay, which could shrink as a share of revenue (S02, S01).

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-03
06

What could go wrong, and how we would know

The risks

  • The biggest insurers build. The chief executive says the largest may build more with AI model companies, and they can bargain prices down.
  • Thin profit after share pay. Operating margin was 10.2% in fiscal 2026, with share pay at 12% of revenue.
  • A soft start to 2027. The first quarter's recurring revenue guide came in below analysts' expectations, and the plan assumes more customers leave.
  • One cloud supplier. Everything runs on Amazon Web Services, which Guidewire names as a risk.
  • People are changing. A new sales chief joined from Capgemini and the chief accounting officer retires in November.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
C28management claimmedium confidence
On the Q4 call the chief executive said the largest insurers may invest more to differentiate themselves with one of the frontier AI model companies, and that Guidewire's ready-made approach is less valuable to them than to smaller insurers.
against this

He added that Tier 1 insurers can build agents with Guidewire's tooling and that it is early in how this plays out (S03).

current state · 2026-09-03written 2026-10-03
C20facthigh confidence
The 10-K says the largest insurers have significant bargaining power, can buy from others or build internally, and have already forced Guidewire to cut average prices and ARR and agree to ramps that delay fully ramped ARR.
current state · 2026-09-11written 2026-10-03
C14facthigh confidence
GAAP operating income was $149.9M in fiscal 2026, 10.2% of revenue, against $41.1M in 2025 and a loss of $52.6M in 2024; non-GAAP operating income was $339.9M, and the gap is mostly $181.8M of stock pay, 12.3% of revenue.
historical · FY2024-FY2026written 2026-10-03
C10management claimmedium confidence
For Q1 fiscal 2027 Guidewire guided ending ARR of $1,253M to $1,259M, revenue of $372M to $378M and GAAP operating income of $19M to $25M; Baird's analyst said on the call that the ARR guide came in below consensus.
against this

Management attributed part of the gap to the currency reset of the ARR base (S03).

forwardwritten 2026-10-03
C42facthigh confidence
Guidewire's cloud runs on Amazon Web Services, and the 10-K names that dependency as a risk.
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
C38facthigh confidence
Insiders made no open-market purchases and 91 open-market sales of 324,801 shares in the year to October 2026; 75.0% of the shares sold were under Rule 10b5-1 plans and 13 sales, 81,195 shares, were not.
historical · 2025-10 to 2026-10written 2026-10-03
What we still do not know
  • What insurers spend on systems like this per dollar of premium. The research firms that measure it sell the figure.
  • Whether the largest insurers that build with AI will keep paying today's fees.
  • What profit margin Guidewire will target at its investor day on 27 October.
  • Why Mercury General's latest annual report no longer names Guidewire.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
C27estimatemedium confidence
Guidewire's ARR of $1.24B is about 0.11% of 2025 U.S. direct premiums, and its customers also write premiums in 43 other countries, so the fee is a small fraction of the premium the system administers.
derivedARR from C07 over U.S. premiums from C26; the global premium base is larger and not measured here
against this
  • Customers also write premiums outside the U.S., so the true share of premium is lower than 0.11% (S01).
  • The fee understates what an insurer pays in all, since licences are about a quarter of a replacement project's cost (S11).
current state · 2026-07-31written 2026-10-03
C28management claimmedium confidence
On the Q4 call the chief executive said the largest insurers may invest more to differentiate themselves with one of the frontier AI model companies, and that Guidewire's ready-made approach is less valuable to them than to smaller insurers.
against this

He added that Tier 1 insurers can build agents with Guidewire's tooling and that it is early in how this plays out (S03).

current state · 2026-09-03written 2026-10-03
C35estimatemedium confidence
Carried three years at 10% and divided by 25, the company value needs about $636M of fiscal 2029 GAAP operating income; on revenue growing about 15.5% a year from the 2027 guide midpoint to about $2.29B, that is a 27.8% margin, against 10.2% in 2026 and about 12% guided for 2027.
derivedcompany value from C34, revenue and operating-income guide from C09, a 25 times multiple for a mature subscription business as A03
against this

Non-GAAP operating margin is already 23% and guided at 24%, so the gap is mostly stock pay, which could shrink as a share of revenue (S02, S01).

current state · 2026-10-02written 2026-10-03

What would change our view

  1. Neutral→AttractiveA price that survives a margin shortfall, with ARR still on guide

    It needs all of:

    • ○The shares fall until the company is valued at 58 times last year's operating profit, leaving room for the margin to fall short.about ≈$110.72 today, 27% below the last close
    • ○Recurring revenue at the end of Q1 fiscal 2027 reaches the bottom of the guide, $1.253B.checked at the next results, due in Dec 2026
  2. Neutral→UnattractiveThe franchise cracks, or the price outruns the margin

    It needs any of:

    • ○Guidewire cuts its fiscal 2027 recurring revenue guide below $1.44B.checked at the next results, due in Dec 2026
    • ○The shares rise until the company is valued at 110 times last year's operating profit, needing a margin near 38%.about ≈$209.99 today, 38% above the last close
We would also be wrong if
  • Customers leaving rises above 3% of recurring revenue in a year.
  • A large insurer replaces a Guidewire system with one of its own or one built with AI.
  • The first fiscal 2028 outlook shows a lower operating margin than fiscal 2027.

What is coming

  • 27 October 2026 Analyst Day at the Connections conference: Whether management sets a long-term margin target near the roughly 28% after stock pay the price needs, and what it says about AI and the largest insurers.
Every dated event ahead
  • 27 October 2026 Analyst Day at the Connections conference: Whether management sets a long-term margin target near the roughly 28% after stock pay the price needs, and what it says about AI and the largest insurers.
  • November 2026 2026 proxy statement: Fiscal 2026 bonus and RSU payouts against goals ARR already passed, any change to the metrics, and insider ownership after a year of sales.
  • 3 December 2026 Q1 fiscal 2027 results: Ending ARR against the $1,253M to $1,259M guide, the fiscal 2027 ARR guide held or cut, and whether attrition stays near its record low.
  • March 2027 Q2 fiscal 2027 results: Whether subscription keeps outgrowing the licence decline, the gross margin path toward 75% to 76%, and whether buybacks resume beyond the $31.9M left.
Since we wrote this
Written
3 Oct
Price the thesis read
$152.15
2 Oct
  • 27 OctNewsGuidewire agrees to buy an AI underwriting software firm for $1.7 billion in cash. View heldGuidewire agrees to buy hyperexponential for $1.7B in cash plus up to $400M contingent.
  • 5 OctThesis reviewThe long case now sits under the verdictAfter the five-name pilot, the owner asked for the long case on every thesis.
  • 4 OctThesis reviewOwner's checklist: revenue streams, cost of growth, management, catalystsThe owner's checklist found the method silent on who runs the company, what growth costs, where the money comes from and what is dated ahead; this pass fills those four blocks from the proxy and filings.
  • 3 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionWritten a month after the fiscal 2026 print and a 19.9% one-day fall on the 2027 guide.

Also checked 1 time with nothing new to act on.

Sources 17

Where this came from

Sources - 17

Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.

  1. S01primarycompany filing2026-09-11
    products, pricing on premiums, contract terms, customers and concentration, competition, risk factors, revenue by type and region, operating income, stock pay, cash, the convertible, buybacks, share count, RPO
    backsC01C02C03C04C05C06C13C14C15C16C17C18C19C20C33C42C44C45C46C49
  2. S02primarycompany release2026-09-03
    ARR and fully ramped ARR, Q4 revenue, free cash flow, the fiscal 2027 and Q1 guides
    backsC06C07C08C09C10C14C15C32C40
  3. S03primarytranscript2026-09-03
    Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)
    data/cache/transcripts/GWRE-2026Q4.json (FMP earning-call-transcript, quarter label 2026Q4, call held 2026-09-03)
    attrition, contracted share of next year's ARR, deal counts, Nationwide, the chief executive on Tier 1 insurers and frontier models; Baird's question on the Q1 guide
    attrition rate of less than 1.5% for all ARR and less than 1% for core systems customers
    backsC07C08C09C10C11C12C13C28C39C50
  4. S04primarytranscript2026-06-04
    Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP)
    data/cache/transcripts/GWRE-2026Q3.json (FMP earning-call-transcript, quarter label 2026Q3, call held 2026-06-04)
    the deals that slipped, the productivity remark on Claude Code, the change of commercial chief
    We anticipated a couple of more deals to close in the quarter
    backsC29C31C39
  5. S05secondaryvendor data2026-10-03
    Research pack (FMP market tier, FINRA short interest, daily closes, SEC XBRL statements)
    the 2 October close and the price path, the price-move split, analyst split and drift, short interest, earnings surprises, theme co-movement, rivals' quote histories
    backsC05C30C31C32C33C36C37C40C41C43
  6. S06primarycompany filing2022-10-28
    a rival's account of switching costs and its list of specialist competitors, Guidewire first
    backsC21C41
  7. S07primarycompany filing2026-03-06
    a customer's planned move of its Guidewire systems to Guidewire Cloud, its timeline, reasons and risks
    backsC23
  8. S08primarycompany filing2010-02-26
    the 2009 pilot and the start of the Guidewire implementation in 2010
    backsC22
  9. S09primarycompany filing2022-02-14
    the migration to InsuranceSuite still under way, expected to finish in 2022
    backsC22
  10. S10primarycompany filing2026-02-27
    Horace Mann Educators Form 10-K, fiscal year 2025 Horace Mann Educators Corporation
    a customer naming its Guidewire property and casualty platform
    backsC24
  11. S11secondarynews2010-05
    how long a core-system replacement takes and the licence share of its cost, from an insurance-technology research firm; old
    Average project lengths are one to three years. P&C projects can be as short as six months, but also can be longer than four years.
    backsC25
  12. S12primaryregulator2026-03
    NAIC, 2025 Property and Casualty Market Share report, Top 25 groups National Association of Insurance Commissioners
    U.S. P&C direct premiums written in 2025 ($1,109,793,590,383), the top-ten share and each group's premiums
    Based on filings received by 03/18/2026, an estimated 98.25% of Property/Casualty filings have been received.
    backsC26
  13. S13secondarynews2026-02-05
    the stated cause of the February 2026 software selloff
    The latest selloff was triggered by a new legal tool from Anthropic's Claude large language model.
    backsC30
  14. S14primarycompany filing2026-10-03
    Guidewire Form 4 filings, October 2025 to September 2026, read by insider_fetch.py
    91 open-market sales and no purchases; the Rule 10b5-1 flag on each
    backsC38
  15. S15primarycompany filing2026-05-08
    the size and growth of DXC's insurance software and services segment
    backsC41
  16. S16primarycompany filing2025-10-30
    beneficial ownership as of October 20, 2025, the fiscal 2025 bonus and performance RSU metrics, weights, goals and payouts, the CEO and president stock-price kicker, executive officer biographies
    backsC47C48C50
  17. S17primarycompany filing2023-09-18
    fiscal 2021 to 2023 income statements and stock pay, the cost lines per sales dollar before the margin turned
    backsC46
Rendered from content/GWRE/thesis.json · thesis reviewed 2026-10-03. This page explains a company; it does not say what to pay, when to buy or how much.