Silicon Motion Technology
Silicon Motion designs the controller chips that make flash memory work in phones, PCs and servers, and now also sells finished drives with the flash inside.
The scores
Growth3/4 ↑
Revenue rose 127% in Q2 2026, but about half is flash resold in drives, and 2023 fell 32%, so the record is short.
Business quality3/4 →
A firmware library across every flash maker won share, but its gains came as flash makers stepped back and they design their own.
Financial position3/4 ↓
Cash roughly equals debt after $1.15B of 0% notes, but first-half cash flow was minus $95.0M on inventory, with a 2029 put.
Execution record3/4 ↑
Seven beats in eight quarters and a guide raised twice, but the PCIe 5 ramp slipped and the client share target is unproven.
Per share capture3/4 →
Share count is flat, with small buybacks and a dividend; the notes convert only above $380.50, with no capped call.
Potential2/4 →
Analysts' 2028 revenue rests on purchase orders and the shortage lasting; MonTitan and boot drives are design wins, not contracts.
Risk profile3/4 ↓
PHISEMI took 38% of first-half sales and China 64% of billings; both are disclosed and the rest is spread.
Valuation2/4 ↓
About 18 times a year of the guided quarter's profit, earned at shortage prices; a 6% yield needs analysts' 2028 profit.
Evidence quality3/4 →
Statements and mix are filed and the cycle is TrendForce's, but the split of growth and the margin source are inferences.
If it works 1.2× · if it fails you keep up to 16%.
The Verdict
We rate Silicon Motion neutral. It designs the chips that run flash memory, and its sales more than doubled this year, so the business is solid. But about half of that growth is finished drives resold at the high flash prices of a shortage, and the other half is share that flash makers handed over while busy elsewhere. The price is full: it already assumes the profit analysts expect in 2028, though supply should catch up a year earlier. As a bet it is fragile: the best case we can defend is only a little above today's value, and a turn like 2023's would keep a small fraction.
The long caseFlash makers busy with AI memory are handing controller work to outside specialists; Silicon Motion is the largest, and must keep that work after the shortage.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
- Management's shares are rounded, so each half could be $10M to $15M either way.
- Some solution revenue, such as boot drives for NVIDIA's DPU programmes, is a new product rather than resold flash (C26).
- Controller margins may have risen too, from price increases and the enterprise mix, which would lower the implied solutions margin.
- Management says the long-term gross margin target of 48% to 50% still holds (C08).
- 2026-10-29editedthe Q3 release shows gross margin at 53.6% GAAP with solutions still the fastest-growing line, so the shortage-priced margin has not faded
The same shift sends sales to module makers whose inventories TrendForce says are high (C29), so share gained through them can be destocked.
Management says operating margin can exceed 30% exiting 2026 (C08); at 30% the same profit needs revenue near $2.5B, close to analysts' 2027.
- Management expects scarcity until 2028 (C28).
- TrendForce's 30 September release still expects contract prices to rise 15% to 20% in the fourth quarter (C30).
The company
Raw flash memory is unreliable: cells wear out and return errors. A controller is the chip that hides this, spreading writes evenly, correcting errors and keeping track of where data lives. Silicon Motion, founded in Taiwan, designs them and has shipped more than 6 billion.
It sells to module makers that build phone storage and PC drives, and to flash makers such as Kioxia and Micron. Their alternative is to design their own, which the biggest flash makers already do for many products.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
Phison makes the same claim of broad NAND support, so breadth is shared with at least one rival (C20).
How it makes money
It is paid per chip or per drive shipped. In 2025 almost all sales were controllers: about half for PC and server drives, the rest for phone storage. By Q2 2026 near 30% came from finished drives, where most of the price is the flash inside. One customer, named only PHISEMI, bought 38% of everything in the first half of 2026, and China took 64% of billings.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
The closing release for the notes says 'less than 5%' a year earlier rather than 4%, so the figures are rounded and the split is approximate.
Where the money comes from, stream by stream
| Stream | Share of sales (2025) | How it earns it |
|---|---|---|
| SSD controllers | 45% to 50% | Controller chips for PC and server SSDs, sold to flash makers and module makers; MonTitan is the enterprise range. |
| eMMC and UFS controllers | 40% to 45% | Controller chips for the storage inside phones, tablets and other devices, sold mostly to module makers. |
| SSD solutions | 0% to 5% | Finished drives with the flash inside: Ferri for cars and industry and boot drives for servers; near 30% of revenue by Q2 2026. |
Who runs it
Wallace Kou founded Silicon Motion in 1995 and still runs it; he owns 1.4% of the company and the chairman 1.2%, so the managers own a stake but not control. Jason Tsai has been chief financial officer since 2024. The company discloses only total pay for its leaders, $2.71M in 2025, and their shares vest with time, not with results. It is still fighting MaxLinear in arbitration for a $160M fee after that merger collapsed in 2023.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
Why it wins, and who could beat it
Why customers come back
Its edge is scale in firmware: one library tuned to every major flash maker's memory, built over billions of chips and $262.7M of research a year. A module maker mixing flash from several makers can ship a working drive without its own controller team.
That edge showed in 2026, when phone-storage controller sales roughly doubled while phone production fell. But it does not lock in the flash makers, who design their own and stepped back by choice.
The evidence under this - 7 claims
- Phison offers the same breadth (C20, C43).
- The share gain arrived when flash makers chose to step back during a shortage, which they can reverse (C23, C24).
Phison makes the same claim of broad NAND support, so breadth is shared with at least one rival (C20).
Sandisk and Micron both still design controllers in-house (C21, C22), so outsourcing is a choice they can reverse.
Silicon Motion's eMMC and UFS sales nearly doubled while phone units fell, so units do not bound its share gains in the short run (C06).
The threat
Phison, a Taiwanese rival, sells the same controllers to the same buyers. The bigger threat is the customers: Sandisk designs most of its controllers in-house and Micron its data-centre ones. Marvell and Microchip sell storage controllers too, as small parts of much larger companies.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The rivals: MU, SNDK, MRVL, MCHP, and 1 more that is private, in-house or listed abroad.
Who else does this, rival by rival
| Ticker | Rival | Where it competes | How far along | Priced against it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phison Electronics, a Taiwanese controller and module designer the 20-F names first among rivalsPriced against it: Listed abroad | Controllers: SSD controllers (client and MonTitan enterprise) and eMMC and UFS controllers | On sale | Listed abroad | |
| MU · SNDK | The flash makers' own controllers: Samsung, SK hynix and Solidigm, Kioxia, Micron and SandiskPriced against it: Different product | Controllers: SSD controllers (client and MonTitan enterprise) and eMMC and UFS controllers | On sale | Different product |
| MRVL | Marvell's storage controllers for SSDsPriced against it: Small part of it | Controllers: SSD controllers (client and MonTitan enterprise) and eMMC and UFS controllers | On sale | Small part of it |
| MCHP | Microchip's data-centre storage controllersPriced against it: Small part of it | Controllers: SSD controllers (client and MonTitan enterprise) and eMMC and UFS controllers | On sale | Small part of it |
| SNDK · MU | The flash makers' own finished drives and boot-drive suppliers to GPU and DPU makersPriced against it: Different product | Storage solutions: Ferri drives for cars and industry, and enterprise boot drives | On sale | Different product |
How big it could get
How big this could get
Nobody publishes how many controllers are sold or at what price, so the market cannot be counted directly. What is measured is the flash they sit beside: servers now take more than 40% of flash demand, phones and notebooks nearly 40%, and phone production falls 15% to 20% in 2026. TrendForce expects flash supply to stay short through 2026 and balance in late 2027.
The evidence under this - 2 claims
Silicon Motion's eMMC and UFS sales nearly doubled while phone units fell, so units do not bound its share gains in the short run (C06).
- Management expects scarcity until 2028 (C28).
- TrendForce's 30 September release still expects contract prices to rise 15% to 20% in the fourth quarter (C30).
Who has signed
Nothing is under contract. Customers buy on purchase orders. Its enterprise controllers are in production with two large customers, with five more due, and its server boot drives are one of two or three suppliers for each chip maker's programme. Neither comes with a disclosed volume.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
- PCIe 5 adoption in client drives came more slowly than management expected six months earlier (C49).
- No customer, volume or contract is disclosed for MonTitan.
Ferri and boot drives together ran near $135M in Q2 alone (C10), so the February figure was far too low or most solution growth is Ferri; the company does not split them.
The results
The numbers
Sales grew 10% in the year to Dec 2025, slower than the 26% in the year before.
Operating margin is 11%, down from 23% in the year to Dec 2022.
Running costs take 38¢ of each sales dollar, up from 23¢ in the year to Dec 2021.
Each dollar put into the business earns 10% a year after tax, down from 33% in the year to Dec 2021.
It turned 0.7% of sales into free cash, $6.29M over the year.
Yearly sales growth has ranged from −32% to +71% over the last 5 years, with sales falling in 1 of them.
The share count fell 3.8% in 4.0 years, and pay in shares costs 3.0% of sales.
All the numbers
Filed figures from the company's 10-K and 10-Q, read 2026-10-07. Fiscal years end in December.
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size and growth | |||||
| Sales | $922M | $946M | $639M | $804M | $886M |
| Sales growth | +71% | +2.6% | −32% | +26% | +10% |
| Profit | |||||
| Gross margin | 50% | 49% | 42% | 46% | 48% |
| Operating margin | 27% | 23% | 6.2% | 11% | 11% |
| Net margin | 22% | 18% | 8.3% | 11% | 14% |
| What growth costs, per sales dollar | |||||
| Research and development | 18% | 20% | 27% | 27% | 30% |
| Sales and marketing | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% |
| General and admin | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% |
| Pay in shares | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% |
| Capital spending | 2.7% | 3.5% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% |
| Cash | |||||
| Cash from operations | $175M | $83.9M | $149M | $77.1M | $61.4M |
| Free cash flow | $150M | $51.0M | $98.8M | $32.7M | $6.29M |
| Balance sheet | |||||
| Cash and short-term investments | $360M | $232M | $314M | $276M | $202M |
| Debt | - | - | $0 | - | - |
| Net cash | - | - | $314M | - | - |
| Returns and shares | |||||
| Return on capital | 33% | 25% | 4.7% | 10% | 10% |
| Shares (diluted) | 140M | 134M | 134M | 135M | 135M |
What growth costs
Growth has made it more profitable: research and office costs rose far more slowly than sales, so operating profit per sales dollar doubled in a year. The same fixed costs cut the other way in 2023, when sales fell 32% and profit nearly vanished.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
The last report (29 Jul)
Quarter ended June 2026, filed figures.
The September quarter was the third record in a row. Sales of $560.2M were up 131% on a year earlier and 24% in three months, and operating profit rose to $162.6M, 29.0 cents of each sales dollar.
But inventory rose to $870.9M from $673.0M and cash from operations was minus $256.1M. Management guided the next quarter to $588M to $616M.
What it did to the thesisSales and margin beat our lines, so the growth is real. But stock piled up and the profit did not turn into cash, so the open question, whether the margin outlasts the flash shortage, is not settled and the view stays neutral.
The quarter in detail
Sales growth from the previous quarter, filed figures.
Earnings per share $2.43 against $2.13 expected.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
- Inventory rose to $870.9M and cash from operations was minus $256.1M, so the profit has not yet turned into cash.
- GAAP earnings of $1.91 an ADS were less than half the non-GAAP $4.35, mostly because of a $78.0M loss on investments and disposals in the cash flow statement.
- 2026-10-29editedthe Q3 release gives the 30 September balance sheet: inventory rose another $197.9M; the split between flash and finished drives is in the filing and call not yet read
- 2026-10-29editedthe Q3 release shows cash from operations of minus $256.1M, the second negative quarter running, with inventory and receivables absorbing it
- The 2026 surge rests on NAND bought at rising prices; TrendForce expects contract price rises to slow and supply to balance in the second half of 2027 (C29, C30).
- Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $1.26 missed the $1.29 estimate, the only miss in eight quarters (C35).
What management did with the money
In August it borrowed $1.15B at no interest through bonds that turn into shares only if the price passes about $380. The chief executive said the money secures the components for its growth, meaning flash. It also pays a dividend and buys back a few shares.
Insiders in 2026Q2: 0 purchases and 1 sales, from their Form 4 filings.
The evidence under this - 3 claims
The formal use of proceeds names no NAND purchase, so how much goes into flash is unstated.
The price, and where we disagree
In short. Full. The price already pays for the profit analysts expect in 2028, earned at margins that rely on a flash shortage expected to end in late 2027.
The shares have nearly tripled in a year, and they swing hard on any sign the flash shortage is easing. They fell from a June high when TrendForce said price rises were slowing, then jumped after the July results.
The September-quarter results came on 29 October and the shares have fallen since we wrote this. The next test is the December-quarter results in early February: whether inventory stops rising and cash from operations turns positive. TrendForce still sees supply catching up in the second half of 2027.
The evidence under this - 5 claims
The fourth-quarter estimate re-accelerated after the third quarter slowed, so the direction is not settled.
- Management expects scarcity until 2028 (C28).
- TrendForce's 30 September release still expects contract prices to rise 15% to 20% in the fourth quarter (C30).
- The 2026 surge rests on NAND bought at rising prices; TrendForce expects contract price rises to slow and supply to balance in the second half of 2027 (C29, C30).
- Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $1.26 missed the $1.29 estimate, the only miss in eight quarters (C35).
- Inventory rose to $870.9M and cash from operations was minus $256.1M, so the profit has not yet turned into cash.
- GAAP earnings of $1.91 an ADS were less than half the non-GAAP $4.35, mostly because of a $78.0M loss on investments and disposals in the cash flow statement.
How we read the multiple
Counting debt and cash, buyers pay about 18 times a full year of the operating profit guided for next quarter.
To earn 6 cents a year after tax on each dollar paid, a common rule of thumb for what a share should earn, Silicon Motion must:
- Earn about $745M of operating profit a year, about 1.4 times next quarter's guided pace.
- At 25 cents of profit per sales dollar, that takes about $2.99B of sales.
- That is the sales analysts expect in 2028, against $1.87B expected for 2026.
Against its own history. Much dearer than its own normal, because buyers are paying peak-cycle profit as if it lasts, in a business whose sales fell by a third in 2023.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
Some of the note proceeds will go into NAND inventory, so net cash is lower than the arithmetic says by however much is spent.
Management says operating margin can exceed 30% exiting 2026 (C08); at 30% the same profit needs revenue near $2.5B, close to analysts' 2027.
- Controller margins may have risen too, from price increases and the enterprise mix, which would lower the implied solutions margin.
- Management says the long-term gross margin target of 48% to 50% still holds (C08).
- 2026-10-29editedthe Q3 release shows gross margin at 53.6% GAAP with solutions still the fastest-growing line, so the shortage-priced margin has not faded
Priced against its rivals
None of the listed rivals above sells the same thing to the same buyers as a large part of what it does. Marvell Technology and Microchip Technology Incorporated do too, but as a small part of much bigger companies, so their price says little about this one. A price comparison needs at least two, so the price is judged against its own history instead.
Private or foreign rivals that cannot be priced: Phison Electronics, flash makers' captive controller designs, small Chinese merchant controller suppliers.
The bet: what it pays if it works
Even if it works, the shares look expensive. The best case we can defend is the sales analysts expect in 2028 at the margin the company now guides to. Valued as a chip maker at the top of a cycle, that is only a little above today's value.
If it fails, flash supply catches up, buyers work through their stock as in 2023, and shareholders keep a business earning its 2025 profit plus its stakes in two customers: a small fraction of today's value.
| Operating profit in two to three years | Dollars of yearly revenue needed | At the stated multiple |
|---|---|---|
| $531.00M | about 2.1B at 100% kept | 0.8× |
| $748.00M (the big win) | about 3.0B at 100% kept | 1.2× |
| $898.00M | about 3.6B at 100% kept | 1.4× |
To pay 2× (a Fair bet) it would need about $1.26B of operating profit (about 5.0B dollars of yearly revenue); to pay 5× (a Cheap bet), about $3.14B of operating profit (about 12.6B dollars of yearly revenue), at the same multiple.
The steps it has to take
- Done Q2 2026 revenue of $451.0M at a 22.4% GAAP operating margin
- Done $1.15B of 0% notes sold to secure NAND
- Done Q3 2026 revenue of $519M or more at a 24.4% or higher GAAP operating margin
- In progress MonTitan at 5% to 10% of revenue exiting 2026 due 2027-02
- Not started Gross margin of 48% or more for two quarters after NAND prices fall due 2027-12
- Not started First revenue from the PCIe Gen6 enterprise controller due 2028-06
- Not started Yearly revenue near $3.0B at a 25% GAAP operating margin due 2029-02
The detail behind the label
The evidence under this - 8 claims
- The 2026 surge rests on NAND bought at rising prices; TrendForce expects contract price rises to slow and supply to balance in the second half of 2027 (C29, C30).
- Q4 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $1.26 missed the $1.29 estimate, the only miss in eight quarters (C35).
TrendForce expects the supply-demand balance to turn positive in the second half of 2027 (C29).
The same shift sends sales to module makers whose inventories TrendForce says are high (C29), so share gained through them can be destocked.
- Management expects scarcity until 2028 (C28).
- TrendForce's 30 September release still expects contract prices to rise 15% to 20% in the fourth quarter (C30).
Where we disagree with the market
Silicon Motion has won lasting share from flash makers, and sales will climb from $1.87B this year to $2.99B by 2028.
Half the growth is lasting share; half is flash resold at shortage prices, which fades when supply catches up, likely before 2028.
The company's own annual report says finished drives earn less than controllers, because most of their price is flash it cannot mark up. Yet margins rose as drives grew to near 30% of sales. That only adds up if the drives are earning shortage prices on flash bought earlier.
We would be wrong if margins stay at 48% or more after flash prices start falling.
What analysts say, and the evidence
The evidence under this - 5 claims
- Management's shares are rounded, so each half could be $10M to $15M either way.
- Some solution revenue, such as boot drives for NVIDIA's DPU programmes, is a new product rather than resold flash (C26).
- Controller margins may have risen too, from price increases and the enterprise mix, which would lower the implied solutions margin.
- Management says the long-term gross margin target of 48% to 50% still holds (C08).
- 2026-10-29editedthe Q3 release shows gross margin at 53.6% GAAP with solutions still the fastest-growing line, so the shortage-priced margin has not faded
- Management expects scarcity until 2028 (C28).
- TrendForce's 30 September release still expects contract prices to rise 15% to 20% in the fourth quarter (C30).
What could go wrong, and how we would know
The risks
- The shortage ends. TrendForce expects flash supply to balance in late 2027; drive sales and their margins would fall with flash prices.
- Inventory bought at the top. It holds $673.0M of inventory, mostly flash bought at rising prices, and borrowed $1.15B to buy more; falling prices would force write-downs.
- One unnamed customer. PHISEMI took 38% of first-half 2026 sales, and the filings say nothing more about who it is.
- Flash makers take work back. The biggest flash makers design their own controllers and could stop outsourcing once their factories have spare room.
- China and Taiwan. China took 64% of billings and the company is based in Taiwan, so trade rules or tension there hit it directly.
- A bond put in 2029. Bondholders can demand $1.15B back in August 2029, which could land in a downturn.
The evidence under this - 6 claims
- Management expects scarcity until 2028 (C28).
- TrendForce's 30 September release still expects contract prices to rise 15% to 20% in the fourth quarter (C30).
- 2026-10-29editedthe Q3 release gives the 30 September balance sheet: inventory rose another $197.9M; the split between flash and finished drives is in the filing and call not yet read
What we still do not know
- Who PHISEMI is, the customer behind 38% of sales.
- How much of drive sales are server boot drives and how much car drives, and what each earns.
- How much of the $1.15B goes into flash, and at what prices.
- Which buyer is behind a jump in sales billed to Israel, most likely NVIDIA's server chips.
The evidence under this - 4 claims
The closing release for the notes says 'less than 5%' a year earlier rather than 4%, so the figures are rounded and the split is approximate.
The formal use of proceeds names no NAND purchase, so how much goes into flash is unstated.
What would change our view
- Neutral→AttractiveA price the shortage-free business can carry
It needs:
- ○The whole company, counting debt and cash, costs 11 times a full year of the profit guided for next quarter, down from about 18.about ≈$132.73 today, 53% below the last close
- Neutral→AttractiveThe margin outlasts the flash price
It needs all of:
- ○Gross margin stays at 48% or more in the first two quarters after flash prices start falling.checked at the next results, due by 2 Feb
- ○Sales of phone-storage controllers keep growing on a year earlier in those same quarters.watched as it happens
- Neutral→UnattractiveThe turn arrives with inventory high
It needs any of:
- ○Sales fall from one quarter to the next while inventory stays above $673M.watched as it happens
- ○Gross margin falls below 46%.checked at the next results, due by 2 Feb
We would also be wrong if
- A flash maker says it is taking controller work back in-house.
- Enterprise controllers and boot drives reach a fifth of sales with named buyers.
What is coming
- 29 October 2026 Q3 2026 results: Revenue against the $519M to $541M guide, gross margin against 50% to 51%, solutions' share of revenue, inventory and cash from operations.
Every dated event ahead
- 29 October 2026 Q3 2026 results: Revenue against the $519M to $541M guide, gross margin against 50% to 51%, solutions' share of revenue, inventory and cash from operations.
- February 2027 Q4 2026 results and the 2025 20-F's successor: Whether operating margin passed 30% exiting 2026, MonTitan's share of revenue, and the full-year customer table.
- April 2027 MaxLinear arbitration award: Whether the $160M termination fee and damages are awarded; no date has been given.
- December 2027 TrendForce's expected NAND supply-demand balance: Whether NAND prices stop rising, which tests the solutions margin and the inventory.
- 15 August 2029 Holders' put date on the convertible notes: Whether $1.15B is repaid in cash, the date that matters if the cycle has turned.
Since we wrote this
- 29 OctEarningsSales beat and margin rose, but inventory and cash flow worsenedSales $560.2M and margin 53.6% beat our lines; inventory rose to $870.9M and cash from operations was negative again. Neutral holds until the call.
- 7 OctThesis writtenNeutral, medium convictionHalf real controller share, half flash resold at shortage prices, at a price that needs analysts' 2028 profit.
Also checked 3 times with nothing new to act on.
Sources 23
Sources - 23
Every claim above cites one of these, or states the reasoning that derived it. The quote is frozen at the date it was read: a link can rot, and an agent fetch returns a reading of a page rather than the page. Backs counts the whole claim ledger, so it can name a claim this page does not surface.
- S01primarycompany filing2026-04-30business, products and mix, customers, competition, risk factors on cycles and solutions margins, employees, results, R&D, legal proceedings, directors, pay, ownership, dividends and buybacksbacksC01C02C03C04C11C17C20C42C43C44C45C46C47C48
- S02primarycompany filing2026-07-30Q2 2026 product-line growth, income statement, GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation and Q3 2026 guidancebacksC02C06C07C08C34C35
- S03primarytranscript2026-07-30Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-07-30data/cache/transcripts/SIMO-2026Q2.jsonmanagement on solutions' share, NAND scarcity to 2028, share gains, MonTitan, Gen6, boot drives, PCIe 5 and the margin target
In second quarter '26, Ferri and Boot Drive solutions more than doubled sequentially and represent near 30% of our total revenue, up from 4% a year ago
backsC08C09C24C26C27C28C49 - S04primarycompany filing2026-08-10the June 2026 balance sheet, inventory note, first-half cash flows, customer table, billing locations and investmentsbacksC13C14C17C18C48
- S05primarycompany filing2026-08-11conversion price, premium, holder put date, call terms, settlement choice and use of proceedsbacksC15
- S06primarycompany filing2026-08-14the final size, net proceeds and the CEO's statement of purposebacksC09C15C16
- S07primarycompany filing2026-04-29Q1 2026 product-line growth and income statementbacksC05
- S08primarytranscript2026-04-29Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-04-29data/cache/transcripts/SIMO-2026Q1.jsonmanagement on outsourcing by NAND makers, module makers and NAND secured from three makers
The mobile market is undergoing a rapid shift as NAND manufacturers accelerate the outsourcing of controller to third party, especially Silicon Motion.
backsC23C33 - S09primarytranscript2026-02-04Q4 2025 earnings call transcript (FMP), held 2026-02-04data/cache/transcripts/SIMO-2025Q4.jsonmanagement on boot-drive revenue, multiple suppliers, NAND suppliers and client SSD share
Currently, we have 2 NAND supplier. One is secure but the other is not.
backsC26C33C49 - S10primarycompany filing2026-02-04Q3 and Q4 2025 operating income and the investment gains in 2025 earningsbacksC35C41
- S11primarycompany filing2026-09-22ordinary shares outstanding at the meetingbacksC38
- S12primarycompany filing2026-08-17Sandisk Corporation Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended July 3, 2026 Sandisk Corporationa flash maker's own statement that it designs controllers in-housebacksC21
- S13primarycompany filing2025-10-03Micron Technology Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended August 28, 2025 Micron Technology, Inc.a flash maker's in-house data-centre SSD controller and its reliance on third-party controllersbacksC22
- S14primarycompany filing2026-03-11Marvell Technology Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended January 31, 2026 Marvell Technology, Inc.its storage controllers for hard drives and SSDsbacksC50
- S15primarycompany filing2026-05-21Microchip Technology Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026 Microchip Technology Incorporatedits storage and memory controllers for data centresbacksC50
- S16primaryindustry data2026-02-02TrendForce press release, 2 February 2026: 1Q26 memory contract price forecast revised up TrendForceNAND contract price forecast for 1Q26 and memory makers moving lines to DRAM
Similarly, NAND Flash contract prices are now expected to rise from 33-38% to 55-60%.
backsC25 - S17primaryindustry data2026-07-03the slower third-quarter price rise
NAND Flash contract prices are projected to increase by 10-15% QoQ-a noticeably slower pace than in previous quarters.
backsC30 - S18primaryindustry data2026-07-21the 2026 supply deficit, the 2H 2027 balance, module-maker inventories, smartphone and notebook production and the demand split
the supply-demand balance is expected to turn positive in the second half of 2027, allowing supply constraints to gradually ease.
backsC29C31 - S19primaryindustry data2026-09-30the fourth-quarter price forecast and enterprise SSD demand
Overall NAND Flash contract prices are projected to increase 15-20% QoQ.
backsC30 - S20primaryindustry data2026-03-23the shortage of low-density NAND dies
Process upgrades at NAND Flash manufacturers are reducing the supply of low-capacity products, making it increasingly difficult for the supply chain to source low-density memory dies.
backsC32 - S21secondaryvendor data2026-10-07Research pack frozen beside this thesis, 2026-10-07content/SIMO/research-pack.jsonthe 6 October close, the 252-day return and its decomposition, daily closes, estimates, the rating split and its history, earnings history, insider rows and FINRA short interestbacksC34C35C36C37C38
- S22primarycompany filing2026-10-07Silicon Motion XBRL company facts, 2020 to 2025, frozen as content/SIMO/financials.jsoncontent/SIMO/financials.jsonannual revenue, cost of sales, R&D, operating income and cash flowsbacksC03C34C42C51
- S23primarycompany filing2026-10-29Q3 sales, margins, earnings per ADS, the Q4 outlook, the balance sheet at 30 September (inventory, receivables, cash, notes) and the cash flow statementbacksC13C14C54